Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / Silver Price and GOLD BREAK OUT 🎯 (Tavi Costa and TD Securities)

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Silver Price and GOLD BREAK OUT 🎯 (Tavi Costa and TD Securities) · SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics

0:02
Are we set up for a major short squeeze in the silver price?
0:06
We have some new data I'll let. You be the.
0:08
Judge. But when you see this data,
0:11
there is one confounding aspect to it that I think will make all
0:16
of our eyebrows raise up. Also, we will touch on the big,
0:20
big, big news story of the day, but we're going to focus on
0:25
silver, we're going to focus on gold.
0:27
And we also have big news from TD Securities about gold and
0:31
silver. And the absolute smartest guy in
0:35
the room who's saying he's never seen the gold and silver markets
0:40
set up the way they are right now at any other time in his a
0:45
career. So we got to pay attention.
0:46
We got a lot of big things going on. 1st, I want to touch on the
0:50
big news story of the day. I can't believe that I'm saying
0:53
this and I'm very upset. I'm not going to spend a lot of
0:56
time on it 'cause there's many other news outlets who are
0:58
covering this much more extensively.
1:01
But I can't believe that I'm sitting here in the basement
1:04
talking about an assassination temp attempt on a presidential
1:09
candidate here in the United States.
1:11
If you're anything like me, you're feeling, I'm feeling a
1:14
big range of emotions. I was already were you?
1:17
I was already very concerned about the future of our country.
1:22
And when that news hit last night, it just hit me like a ton
1:26
of bricks. I'm not going to sit here and
1:28
lie to you guys, OK? It was very disturbing.
1:32
I'm feeling mad, I'm feeling sad, I'm feeling confused.
1:37
There's all types of theories out there about what's going on,
1:40
but at the end of the day, I would just say that it's very
1:43
disturbing. So if you're feeling a little
1:46
upset, you're not alone. Ron here from Ron's basement is
1:49
with you. You know, and when we look at
1:53
and we don't want, I mean, gosh, you know, we're good people.
1:56
I know you're a good person. I don't want wars to occur.
1:59
I don't want assassinations to occur.
2:02
But man, we, you know, you and I, we don't control what's going
2:07
on in the world right now. I have to remember that, right?
2:10
We can't single handedly fix any of this, but we do make it as
2:15
decision to protect ourselves, right?
2:17
Times like this when there's just unbelievable turmoil in the
2:22
world, unbelievable hatred in the world.
2:26
Like I've never seen in my life. I mean, maybe I'm just turning
2:29
into a crabby old man. I don't know.
2:32
But I've never experienced what feels like this.
2:35
This what is visceral. I don't know what the word is.
2:38
Fancy I'm I'm just hatred in the world in so much turmoil.
2:43
You know, I guess it makes makes me feel good about owning some
2:46
of this stuff, right? Silver or gold, it's a safe
2:51
harbor. And again, we don't want bad
2:53
things to happen for the price of silver and gold to go up.
2:57
So again, I'll just say this, I'm upset, OK, This is a channel
3:02
about silver and gold and that's what we're going to talk about.
3:04
But I am upset about the direction that our country is
3:08
going. And I, I think that our founding
3:10
fathers are upset about the direction that the country is
3:14
going. And I think that this hatred and
3:17
just unbelievable media stuff that goes on is not good for,
3:23
you know, and if you're like me, right, I have children, I have
3:26
twin 12 year old children. Not good for the future that we
3:30
want for our children and grandchildren and of course for
3:33
ourselves as well. So let's pray that this that
3:37
this world and that the United States gets things sorted out.
3:41
Okay, enough of that. Have you heard about?
3:44
Let's look at some crazy, crazy data.
3:46
Silver squeeze. Are we in for a silver squeeze?
3:50
Right? Could we see the price of silver
3:53
skyrocket? What recent data?
3:55
You can be the judge for yourself here, but I saw this.
3:58
Good morning, Lone Ranger. Hey, Annie Oakley, thank you for
4:01
being here. Thank you, Jake's custom parts
4:04
moderators who are here this morning giving up their time.
4:07
You know what? I haven't done this for a while.
4:09
I'm going to type 888 because those that moderate are great.
4:13
So we really appreciate you being here.
4:16
I know it's a difficult morning, so each and everyone of you who
4:19
are joining us now, thank you very, very much.
4:22
All right, let's go out here. Let's look at this data.
4:25
I actually saw this on Reddit in the Silver D Gen. club, right?
4:29
They're part, they're an offshoot part of the Wall Street
4:33
silver organization. But this was interesting,
4:35
commercial silver traders still trying to put out fire with
4:41
paper. OK, listen to this.
4:42
I got it in red here. Today's COMEX silver COT report.
4:47
That's the commitment of traders report.
4:49
This is crazy guy shows the commercial traders added a net
4:53
4800 silver contract shorts for the week.
4:58
That meant they sold it short. They're betting the price will
5:00
go down. They now have 33,496 long
5:06
contracts, but they have 118,000 short contracts.
5:11
Their net silver short is almost 85,000 contracts.
5:16
That equals almost the equivalent of 425,000 oz short.
5:23
This guy says that has to be a record or close to it.
5:27
Guys, that is massive. OK, Now I'm not a COT report
5:31
guru and and I don't think that that that's what you expect out
5:35
of me or it or an area that that you maybe dive into either.
5:39
But what that shows is that the commercial traders have sold
5:43
short 425,000 ounces of silver. They will need to buy that back
5:49
at some point in the future, right?
5:51
That's what when you short something, you sell it and you
5:53
have to buy it back. But think about this 425,000,000
5:59
did I say thousand earlier? Anyway?
6:00
Million. Ounces of silver.
6:03
That's half the world's production, mining production of
6:07
silver. We could be.
6:10
Set up and we're going to look at more data, we're going to
6:12
look at what Tavi Costa has to say here next, like 6
6:16
unbelievable charts about the silver and gold markets.
6:19
If this price starts to run and they have to cover these short
6:23
positions, it could get it could get explosive within the silver
6:28
market. Now if if you read through the
6:30
comments on this, some people say well there's a short that
6:34
means there's somebody long I will say this, right?
6:37
That's why I don't usually focus much on all all these technical
6:42
comex reports, OK, that show the amount of shorts and longs and
6:47
blah, blah blah. Because people have been digging
6:50
into these for decades. And the reality is it didn't
6:53
really really make a a a bit of difference when it came to where
6:57
the silver price is now. But this I think stands out.
7:00
And as this author pointed out, this could be a record or close
7:04
to it. They are short 420 five,
7:08
423,000,900 and 423,950,000 contracts so wanted to point
7:15
that one out to you. What else is going on?
7:19
Do you know who Tavi Costa is? Crescat Capital probably.
7:23
And and if you, if you, if we met on the street, we were
7:26
talking said who's one of The Who are the sharpest minds in
7:29
the precious metal sector? Who are the sharpest minds in
7:31
the market? Tommy Costa would come up.
7:34
He's young, he's smart, OK. He manages an immense amount of
7:39
money. And this guy, as I understand
7:42
it, he's not like a perma bowl, a perma supporter, a pumper
7:47
necessarily of silver and gold. But he pointed out some crazy
7:51
data. Let's go dig into what he had to
7:53
say about the silver and gold market right now.
7:57
You know what? Before we do that, I want to say
7:59
thank you to channel sponsor Pembex Pi MB EX.
8:03
We announced the big in the summer silver giveaway
8:06
yesterday. There'll be a link to that, to
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8:11
and every video that we'll be doing here in the next six
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weeks. But on August 31st, we're going
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8:26
I was just looking and at 10 oz bars earlier.
8:29
I love 10 oz silver bars here. Let me show you quickly.
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Here's just one of the bars that's part of the giveaway that
8:37
the guys at PMBEX that's upside down sent to us.
8:41
This is a 10 oz Coca-Cola silver bar.
8:45
Look at that. It's robust.
8:48
There's also a 5 oz bar and a one ounce bar again, that'll be
8:53
on August 31st, Saturday, August 31st during our live stream.
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You got plenty of time to enter. There's a there's a little video
9:00
you go there and you type in thanks, 10 backs, not on this
9:04
video, but on the giveaway video.
9:05
And then we'll pick a random winner on that day and it'll be
9:08
exciting. 16 ounces of silver. OK, now we're going to have a 16
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right now at Pimbex as well. Pi MB EX.
9:23
Let's go ahead and see what Tommy Costa.
9:26
This is crazy. This is this is good news.
9:28
We need some good news, OK, I mean, and unfortunately with
9:32
this, I can't believe we're Can you believe we're saying
9:35
assassination attempt? I mean, I, I'm, I was, I'm
9:39
really upset, OK? I'm just being honest with you
9:41
guys here. I'm a human, right?
9:44
And, and I was already upset about what was going on in this
9:47
world. What happened last night really
9:49
upset me, you know, and it could be, and I heard a couple people
9:54
say this, OK, that it could be actually that we could see some
9:58
big moves in the metals. I mean, think about the insanity
10:02
we already had the situation going on with Biden in the
10:05
questions about his mental abilities and fitness to to to
10:09
run the country. And then now the other.
10:11
I mean, it's is this real? Somebody wake me up.
10:15
Am I dreaming when we could see this could be?
10:17
It's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of fear right in gold and silver
10:22
are a fear trade. We don't want that to to I don't
10:26
I don't want gold and silver to go up on the back of of mis
10:30
unfortunate circumstances. But guys, it sure feels like
10:34
that's the case right now. All right, here we go, Tommy
10:37
Costa said. We are currently experiencing a
10:40
multitude of technical breakouts in the press.
10:43
Precious metals industry. I can't recall a time when I've
10:47
seen so many historical moves in this space.
10:51
Here are my six favorite chart setups, and we're going to run
10:55
through these guys because this is, I mean, it just gets better
10:59
and better as we go through. Here's the minor to gold ratio.
11:03
OK, this calculates the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold
11:07
and Silver index to the gold price.
11:09
Look how since the mid 1990s that has gone down.
11:13
Down, down, down, finally starting to break out.
11:19
I mean look at this, it was as high as .35.
11:22
The mining stocks are have just been obliterated.
11:25
Right now it's at point O 6, but breaking out above that yellow
11:30
line. Why you might be asking, OK Ron,
11:32
why are you showing? Why do we care about?
11:34
Because guys, when the mining stocks take off, it is going to
11:37
put more and more focus on. There I go again, I apologize.
11:47
There's that chart right there. OK, let me make sure you can see
11:50
that. Let me go back to you and I want
11:53
to say I'm sorry I forgot to pull the chart up, OK?
11:56
I know you can't see. I apologize, guys.
11:59
Thanks for sticking with me. Now we're going to go back and
12:02
we're going to, I'll let you look at that chart and don't
12:04
worry. OK, there we go.
12:10
There's that chart right there, the minor to gold ratio.
12:13
And look, I mean, it's unbelievable how low that has
12:16
gotten. That is how undervalued.
12:18
What that shows you is that in the West there is 0.
12:24
To hardly any interest in precious metals.
12:27
And don't forget, guys, when that changes, OK?
12:31
When the West, when the stocks Wall Street can't afford, can't
12:35
ignore big profits in the mining sector forever.
12:39
When it when, when, when, when focus comes back onto the
12:42
precious metal mining sector, It's also going to bring focus
12:46
back onto gold and silver, the physical metals as well in the
12:51
West. And when that happens, I'm
12:53
telling you. KT bar the door because right
12:56
now, now I'm not right now I'm paranoid that I'm not showing
13:00
you the right screen, which I am.
13:02
OK, right now nobody's buying it.
13:05
And when it changes, it'll change.
13:07
OK, here's the junior miners to gold ratio.
13:10
Same thing. This compares the GDXJ, which is
13:13
the junior gold miners ETF to the price of gold.
13:17
Okay, look at this back in what 2011 it was high as .1.
13:23
Even recently as high as .03 point 04 back in 2016.
13:28
Now we're at .0915. But the key is that it's
13:32
breaking out above that downward trend line.
13:35
We're having breakouts and all these things, and it will bring
13:39
more attention when Wall Street wakes up to what's going on in
13:43
the gold and silver sector. It is going to be absolutely
13:47
gangbusters not only for the mining stocks, but guys also
13:53
the, the, the, the physical metals as well.
13:56
I mean, everybody I talked to have you, I mean, I, I, I talked
14:00
to coin shop Chris. By the way, coin shop Chris has
14:02
his own channel. It's time for the quick coin
14:04
shop Chris plug. Go check out coin
14:06
shop.chris@coinshopchris.com on YouTube.
14:10
A big friend of Ron's basement. But I talked with him and you
14:14
know it, it's like sales are kind of blah right now.
14:17
They're getting some sales, but other people I talked to are
14:21
saying that right now retail investment and silver and gold
14:25
in the United States is down, down, down.
14:27
But I got a big. Interesting point to bring up on
14:30
that regard as well that we're going to talk about later.
14:32
Gold miners, the GDX, these are the big gold miners.
14:36
Same thing, right? I'm sorry.
14:40
Yeah, Down, down, down. Right.
14:42
This is the actual GDXETF breaking out.
14:46
OK, First time since, what, 2011?
14:50
I mean, it's getting interesting again.
14:52
This is from Tommy Costa. The GDXETF or the most liquid
14:56
gold mining stock ETF also poked its head out of 14 year
15:01
resistance here. The GDXJETF, which comprises
15:05
small junior companies is forming a very bullish trend
15:09
with now three months above its long term resistance.
15:13
Look at this right, even more dramatic, the junior gold miners
15:16
breaking out and we haven't even had her.
15:19
I mean, the mining companies are making tons of cash right now
15:24
with 20 the the price of gold throughout the whole second
15:27
quarter, April, May, June was basically over $2300.
15:32
These mining companies guys are making a lot of money.
15:35
When Wall Street wakes up to that and starts focusing on the
15:39
gold and silver mining companies, silver miner, same
15:43
story at $30. Silver, they're doing very well.
15:46
That will bring more attention also into the metals.
15:49
I think I've said that four Times Now, so I apologize for
15:52
repeating myself, Silver. Well, thank you, Tavi, which is
15:57
likely been the most frustrating asset for investors over the
16:01
past decades. How do you feel about that?
16:04
Yeah, we. Yeah, Tavi, we agree.
16:07
Silver has been very frustrating, has finally broken
16:10
out decisively and appears to be heading towards its previous
16:14
peak of $50 per oz. OK, this is a silver chart going
16:20
back to hell about 2006 right down.
16:23
There's 2011 high down, down, down, right.
16:27
We also had let me let me help Tavi out here a little bit.
16:31
Not only are we breaking out of that trend line, but we can also
16:36
remember, right, we also broke out of that wedge pattern,
16:42
right? We also have an inverse head and
16:45
shoulders. We also have a long term cup and
16:48
handle so silver also breaking out.
16:51
He's talking about $50 per oz. Hold on here.
16:57
There we go. Excuse me.
17:00
That would have been great. I almost got stuck on that.
17:02
Page here we go. The gold to silver ratio also
17:08
finally broke down. We talked about this yesterday
17:10
from 13 years support. If this marks the beginning of a
17:14
bull market in gold, silver is likely to lead to the upside.
17:20
Let's take a look at this right. This is the this is a 13 year
17:24
trend that we had in the gold to silver ratio.
17:29
But as we know, we got up as high as what, 90 a hundred
17:32
recently, guys, we broke down. The lower that goes, the fewer
17:38
ounces of silver it takes to buy each ounce of gold.
17:41
So what we want to see is we want to see gold continue
17:44
higher. Can you believe we're at 2400?
17:47
I can't believe. OK, let's we'll go check on that
17:50
in a second. Is this true?
17:52
I can't believe that there was an assassination attempt last
17:55
night, but I also can't believe that there is a that we have
18:00
$2400 gold. Is that real?
18:02
Wake me up, please. OK, But what we want to see
18:05
happen is that gold continues to go higher, but that the gold to
18:09
silver ratio continues to go lower because like we talked
18:13
about yesterday, what was it if if we had a let's say the gold
18:17
to silver ratio drops down to 50 and and we have $2400 gold like
18:22
we do right now, that makes $48 silver guy.
18:27
So Tommy Costa again. Oh, we got another one.
18:33
Oh, this is interesting. While this thesis doesn't rely
18:37
on technical analysis, it's always important when your macro
18:40
and fundamental thesis aligns with price behavior.
18:45
Investors are far too pessimistic about the silver and
18:49
gold industry in general. So he shows these time periods
18:53
where silver are we're gold, I'm sorry, took off, OK.
18:58
And you know, silver is took off even more so right back in the
19:02
70s, falling gold production, inflation, central banks
19:05
accumulating gold, lack of new gold discoveries.
19:09
That's exactly what's going on right now.
19:11
OK, Then around the year 2000, falling gold production, gold,
19:15
gold to S&P 500 ratio at a historic lows, China driving
19:20
commodities demand that drove up gold.
19:22
OK, let's, let's talk about what we have going right now, the
19:26
third gold cycle, OK, Falling gold production, check.
19:30
Central banks accumulating gold. Yes, we know that, OK.
19:37
Government debt at historic levels, yes.
19:39
Unsustainably high fixed deficits, yes.
19:42
Rising deglobalization trends, yes.
19:47
The G7 economies entering a manufacturing revitalization
19:52
area era? I don't know about that, but
19:54
I'll say yes, sure. But the onset of an inflationary
19:58
regime, guys, inflation we're going to talk about a little bit
20:01
later with Jamie Dimon says about inflation as well.
20:04
We are not getting out of this situation we're in right now
20:08
with low inflation. Don't let with the Fed in the in
20:12
the government is telling you don't, don't bully.
20:14
Don't let them lie to you. OK, 6040 portfolios looking for
20:19
haven alternatives. We know that gold has now
20:22
outperformed government bonds over A50 year period.
20:26
Guys, gold is the safe asset, not U.S.
20:30
Treasuries. Ultra capital conservative by
20:33
major miners, lack of new gold discoveries, Gold S&P 500 ratio
20:37
at historic lows. A trifecta.
20:40
A trifecta of macro imbalances. Debt problems?
20:45
OK, we got that. Inflation issues of the 70s, we
20:48
can. So we got the debt problems of
20:50
the 40s, which was when we just got done with the world.
20:53
War. I mean, think about it.
20:56
We've got the same debt problem now that we had at the end of
20:59
World War Two in the 1940s. We just gotten out of a World
21:02
War and we just gotten out of the world's worst depression and
21:06
we're and supposedly everything's great right now.
21:09
It doesn't make any sense. Inflationary.
21:11
Issues of the 70s we got have that now, asset valuation and
21:15
balance of the late 20s and early oh man, just when I
21:20
wanted, I guess we can feel good about owning silver and gold.
21:24
We can't feel so good about all these other factors that are
21:28
going on out there right now. Coin shop.
21:30
Chris is he texted me. Hold on a second here.
21:35
You see what he had to say? I get distracted.
21:38
Are you awake now? OK, You tossed a Ding Dong at
21:41
me. OK, I get distracted when I'm
21:43
talking and I get text. So sorry about that, guys.
21:47
So that's what's, that's what Toby Costa is telling us is
21:50
going on right now in the silver and the gold market.
21:54
Again, one of the sharpest, sharpest guys in the room.
21:57
We know, OK, that according to the COMEX, right on the
22:01
commercial trader side, we've got a huge, huge short interest
22:05
this is setting up for. And we have.
22:08
Would you say, unfortunately, I promised myself I wasn't going
22:11
to cry during this live stream, that we have turmoil and
22:16
uncertainty? In this world, I have you ever I
22:20
don't. How old are you?
22:21
I'm 54. OK, I'm not too.
22:24
I'm here. I'm going to put it in the in
22:25
the in the chat. I'm 54.
22:31
Have you ever experienced a period of uncertainty?
22:34
Of I don't want to say pessimism, but gosh, just
22:38
outright like like things being screwed up like any other time.
22:42
As an American, a lot of you aren't Americans.
22:45
I'd be curious what your perspective is, but I've never.
22:48
And where do people go during times of uncertainty?
22:51
Where do people go? Where's the world going?
22:54
Where are the bricks countries going gold?
22:57
Where are the world central banks going?
22:59
Gold? If you thought about that, who
23:02
are the smartest? People in the world.
23:06
Who are The Who and who has access to the the most sensitive
23:12
inside information when it comes to financial matters in the
23:16
world? Who do you think?
23:18
Right, right. The ultra wealthy.
23:20
Yeah, maybe. But I but I think there's even
23:22
somebody else that has better access to even more sensitive
23:27
more inside information about the financial.
23:30
Situation. It's the world central banks.
23:32
The smart, I mean, don't listen to what they're saying, OK?
23:37
Never, never listen. Never.
23:38
Never trust a banker. OK, Sorry.
23:42
I have a few relatives who are bankers, but they're not like.
23:46
Never trust a central. Banker.
23:48
I'll put it at that. OK, listen.
23:51
Listen to what they say, but watch what they do.
23:54
And what they're doing right now is buying gold, right?
23:59
Look at the Chinese. Look at the Indians, right?
24:02
Don't listen to what they say, everybody.
24:05
This is the way the world works, guys with these big, high level
24:08
wealthy people, They mislead us. They say one thing, right?
24:13
The Chinese are saying no, we're not buying gold.
24:15
We're not buying gold. We're not.
24:17
We don't want gold anymore. They're probably buying gold.
24:20
That's the reality of the situation.
24:22
I mean, it's unfortunate that that's the way the world works,
24:26
but that's the way the world works.
24:30
When have central banks ever proven themselves to be
24:34
trustworthy? I ask you that simple question,
24:37
my fellow basement dwellers. When has the United States
24:40
Federal Reserve ever proven itself to be trustworthy and
24:44
looking out for the average American?
24:47
That's what they say. Oh, we're trying.
24:49
We we understand the hardships for but.
24:52
No, the reality is OK. The reality is much, much
24:56
different. OK, so as the world central
24:58
banks accumulate silver and gold, it might be a good idea
25:01
for you to think about accumulating some as well.
25:08
TD Securities do you know who? TD Securities is.
25:11
It's a massive. Canadian, OK, massive Canadian
25:15
investment bank, financial services company.
25:18
What are they saying about gold and silver?
25:22
All right, because look, the reality is for those of you who
25:26
don't know, the Canadian banks are more in tune with the
25:30
precious metals because that's where a lot of the big precious
25:33
metal mining companies are headquartered is Canada.
25:36
And a lot of the junior companies Canada.
25:38
Canada kind of dominates the silver and gold industry.
25:42
So their banks follow silver and gold much, much more closely
25:47
than what we have here in the United States.
25:48
Let's go take a look and see what what the Canadians are
25:53
saying about silver and gold. And you know, this comes from
25:56
our old friend Neil's man. Neil's this is has some of the
26:00
best articles out there. He says the gold market remains
26:03
hot even if China isn't buying gold, and that's according to TD
26:08
Securities. OK, China's central bank has not
26:11
officially increased its gold reserves for the last two
26:14
months, officially being the keyword there.
26:17
However, this move has done little to cool the marketplace
26:21
as prices push back above $2400 an ounce and are only roughly 1%
26:27
away from new record highs. I promised you guys, I promised
26:33
you guys we would go out and look.
26:35
There it is at Pembex. I can't believe, wow, you ever
26:42
had that happen to you? Gold's over $2400 an ounce.
26:45
Like, I knew that, but I think it just really sunk.
26:48
In You never know what tomorrow brings, right?
26:51
Or tonight for that matter. But right now we've got gold at
26:54
over $2400 an ounce, incredible silver, almost $3130.78 an
27:01
ounce. We're only 1% away from new
27:06
record highs. Although Chinas dominance in the
27:08
gold market is credited for gold's rally, analysts note that
27:12
new momentum is building as the Federal Reserve lays the
27:16
groundwork for potential rate cuts later this year.
27:19
And we've heard that about 16 zillion times.
27:23
On Wednesday, Commodity analyst at TD Securities note that the
27:27
price action in gold shows that the market is much larger than
27:32
one central bank. Guys, that is so critical for us
27:36
to understand the gold and silver market.
27:39
Remember, it was like what, four?
27:41
Well, gosh, probably 5. Weeks ago when the big news
27:45
broke, remember the big news? China Central Bank didn't buy
27:49
gold during the month of May. Oh my God, the gold, My gold
27:52
went down like 80 bucks an ounce.
27:54
It made no sense. Did it make any sense to us
27:57
whatsoever? That on that same day, so had
28:00
nothing to do with silver, but silver went down like 4%, went
28:04
down like a dollar an ounce. OK, Nonetheless, what we're what
28:08
we're seeing right now think about it is a rejection of that
28:12
philosophy. We don't even know for sure that
28:15
the Chinese central bank has stopped buying gold.
28:17
There's much suspicion in the marketplace.
28:22
That the Chinese central bank is still buying gold, but
28:25
nonetheless, officially they're not.
28:27
But guess what, Despite that fact, the gold price like we
28:32
just looked at is still above $2400 per oz.
28:37
We are in a new era for silver and gold.
28:41
We sat. Down here in December basement
28:44
dwellers and established that do you remember maybe you weren't
28:47
with us in December Well, so we'll refresh your memory.
28:50
Those of us basement dwellers that were, we said in about
28:53
mid-december, I think it was around the 20th or the 18th that
28:57
we are in a new, a new paradigm, a new the tide and turn.
29:02
Things are different now and things are different.
29:05
And I got news for you guys. It doesn't matter really what
29:09
happens with inflation. We're going to talk about that
29:12
later, man. We got a lot more to cover.
29:14
I'm glad you guys are here. 400 basement dwellers.
29:17
On a Sunday. Wow, OK, And a very difficult
29:20
day with what happened last night.
29:22
Anyhow, gold's rally back above 20 and yellow.
29:25
We're at the yellow part. Gold's rally above $2400 came
29:30
after the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported a 12 month
29:33
core consumer price Index, which strips out food.
29:37
Blah blah blah blah blah below. Expected inflation data is
29:40
compounding the precious metal rally after softer employment
29:45
data had already bolstered expectations of the September
29:48
start to the Fed rate cutting cycle.
29:51
Now some people are saying who was it, City or somebody said
29:54
they might cut rates eight times in the next year and a half.
29:57
I mean, now it's like now we're in like, like rate cut La La
30:01
land, right? It doesn't matter, guys.
30:03
It doesn't matter. Gold and silver are going to do
30:06
well despite, we'll touch on that in a little bit.
30:09
In this case, in this sense, a key macro cohort that has been
30:13
on the sidelines thus far is increasingly likely to regain
30:17
interest in gold, said analyst at TD Securities in a note on
30:22
Thursday. So what they're saying is that
30:25
right now, and hey, right now, yeah, sure, we'll pay attention.
30:28
Interest rates, inflation rates, the Fed, all this BS noise is
30:34
kind of working in the favor of gold.
30:37
Because remember, the Chinese aren't buying gold anymore,
30:40
while the Chinese central bank isn't buying gold.
30:42
So now temporarily they're saying, well, it's because the
30:45
feds going to cut rates, blah, blah, it's all a bunch of noise.
30:48
The Canadian bank remains bullish on gold, expecting
30:51
prices to hit $2700. Wow, 20.
30:57
Did you see that, guys? It's in red here, $2700 by the
31:00
start of 2025. How do you feel about that?
31:04
That seems about right to me. Not only are investors jumping
31:08
back into the market, but other central banks are actively
31:12
buying. OK, So what they're saying is
31:15
investors are starting to jump back into the gold and silver
31:18
market, OK, Because the Chinese aren't right now, right?
31:22
The Chinese central bank, right? But other central banks, we
31:26
forgot about that. Recent reports from the World
31:28
Gold Council. Showed.
31:31
Poland and India buying gold in June.
31:34
OK. Quote, with this and the markets
31:37
willingness to buy gold when there's more certainty
31:40
surrounding the Feds monetary policy, it's unlikely that the
31:43
recent absence of the Chinese central bank bank in the
31:45
physical market will prevent gold from hitting our Q 12025
31:51
average target of 2475. That's from TD analyst on
31:55
Wednesday. Quote, it seems that gold prices
31:58
remain a little too rich for the People's Bank of China.
32:03
Hold on one second here. Hold on, Are you guys still
32:07
there? OK, You are OK for the People's
32:10
Bank of China, and they're waiting for a further pullback
32:13
before resuming their gold purchasing program.
32:16
But given the gold has started to rally on optimism that the
32:20
Fed may cut rates in September, a significant price decline may
32:24
not be in the cards anytime soon.
32:26
OK, although China ended it in red its 18 month shopping spree,
32:31
TD Securities doesn't expect that it has ended its official
32:34
gold purchase program. They explained that China has a
32:37
lot of work to do. This is interesting.
32:39
China only has 5% of its foreign exchange reserves in gold, a 15
32:46
to 25% allocation. Is more consistent with its
32:51
geopolitical peers. That would be the BRICS
32:54
countries. And would provide a meaningful
32:57
foreign exchange reserve diversification ratio.
33:00
Let's wrap up here with the orange if the in the current
33:04
environment, TD Securities expects that it's only a matter
33:07
of time before gold breaks May's record prices only a matter of
33:12
time before we get new all time highs and the gold price.
33:16
And you know what that's going to do to Silver quote, since it
33:19
looks like the official sector is still interested in using
33:23
gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.
33:25
More uptake from investors when the timing of rate cuts becomes
33:30
more predictable should see gold rally to new records.
33:35
New record. So what do you think guys?
33:38
That's TD Securities, right? Massive Canadian investment and
33:44
bank financial services company. Probably one of the most
33:48
respected names in the gold and silver sector.
33:52
Remember these big Canadian banks?
33:55
They follow. Gold and silver very, very
33:58
closely. Do you think Goldman Sachs
34:00
really follows gold and silver that closely?
34:02
No, You think JP Morgan? Well, JP Morgan follows it
34:06
because they like to tamp it down, right?
34:08
And we're going to talk about with Jamie Dimon Big.
34:11
Warning. Big warning from Jamie Dimon
34:14
himself. Should we pay attention or
34:17
should we should we dive into the deep end, analyze what he
34:22
says and realize that what he says is probably true, but that
34:26
it's actually very good fundamentally for the silver
34:29
price and the gold price as we head through the end of the
34:33
year? Hey guys, let me put up the
34:34
banner. I want to say thank you.
34:36
I forgot the most. Important.
34:37
Part of the show you. Thank you for joining us in the
34:41
basement today. It's a big deal when you come
34:44
here. I know today is a difficult day
34:46
for many of you. I shared with those of you who
34:49
just came on. I was very disturbed last night.
34:52
I can't believe that we're talking about an assassination
34:56
attempt on a presidential candidate.
34:58
But but the fact that we come together, we've always said
35:02
they'll be choppy waters, right? There's going to be hard times,
35:06
right? And we've gone through.
35:07
Hey, let's, let's, I want to say.
35:09
Thank you for joining and and for being with me and Susie and
35:13
the whole community, Ron's basement community.
35:16
Gosh, over the last two years, even if you've been here for two
35:19
days or two months, right, or or six months, it doesn't matter.
35:24
We've gone through some very, very difficult times in the
35:27
precious metal sector and we've done it together.
35:29
So thank you. Please, if you want to do
35:31
something nice, give this video a thumbs up.
35:34
You can subscribe. It's always free and super chat.
35:37
Super thanks. Things are always super
35:38
appreciated. You guys send me some gold and
35:41
silver. Here's the five ounce bar here.
35:44
I'll show you the back. Isn't that pretty?
35:46
Let me see if I can get it. Silver so hard sometimes to get.
35:53
There we go. Maybe that's better.
35:56
Look at that. Oh, there we go.
35:58
Wow, isn't that cool? Thank you Pembacs.
36:01
And look at it, it's robust, it's thick.
36:03
Again, we've got a 10 oz silver bar, 5 oz silver bar and a one
36:07
ounce silver bar. You you've got six weeks to
36:10
enter. There's a little video where you
36:12
got to go to and type. Thanks, Pembacs.
36:13
There's a link to that in this and all of our subsequent videos
36:17
leading up to the August 31st. Big, big, big giveaway.
36:21
Okay, what did Jamie Dimon, you know Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan
36:27
Chase, right? You know, JP Morgan Chase, you
36:29
know, did you know this? JP Morgan Chase got convicted of
36:33
manipulating the precious metals markets.
36:36
They did it by spoofing, right? They did it and they, but they
36:39
actually, I believe they sent a couple of the guys to jail for
36:43
like a year or something like that, right.
36:45
Oh, yeah. You can steal money from silver
36:47
and gold stackers for decades, pay some fines.
36:50
They paid, I forget, millions and millions maybe, I mean,
36:54
hundreds of millions of dollars in fines.
36:56
That's JP Morgan. But what is Jamie Dimon saying?
36:59
Let's listen to this. This is and then more crazy data
37:03
about silver. It never ends.
37:06
It never ends. But let's talk about Jamie
37:08
Dimon, and then let's talk about crazy data for Silver.
37:12
OK, here we go. JP Morgan.
37:17
I need to remember to share the screen with you basement
37:21
dwellers. Let's make sure you're on.
37:22
There you are, CNBC. I'm sorry.
37:25
NBC, not CNBCNBC JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon warns inflation and
37:32
interest rates may stay higher. Oh my gosh, now are you?
37:36
Are you scared guys? Because if inflation and
37:40
interest rates stay higher, that'll be bad for gold and
37:43
silver, right? Gold and silver will crash.
37:45
Why is Jamie? Saying that and is that indeed
37:48
the fact would. Gold and silver.
37:50
You have to ask yourself that question.
37:53
If inflation were to take off again, right, all that means the
37:56
Fed has to raise rates and blah blah blah, that would that would
37:59
kill the price of gold and silver.
38:01
Is that what you believe or is there another?
38:03
Way to look at it, and I'm going to explain the other way to look
38:07
at it. Why I think the other way is
38:09
actually the fact and the reality of the situation.
38:13
Here he is. OK, That's Jamie Dimon from JP
38:16
Morgan Chase. Hold on.
38:17
I tried to do this last night. Hold on guys.
38:23
Hold on. Stay with me here.
38:28
All right, here we go. I hate silver.
38:34
Silver. There we go.
38:36
That's Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan Chase.
38:39
That's that's what that picture should have said.
38:41
All right, let's go down here, though and see what he actually
38:44
said. I never met the man and he's
38:46
not, I'm, I'm saying I, I don't really like him, but I don't
38:50
dislike him, OK, too much, OK, I don't like him.
38:54
JP Morgan Chase CEO Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon on
38:58
Friday. Issued another warning about
39:01
inflation despite recent signs of easing and price pressures
39:06
and green, he said quote. There's, you know, how he talks
39:11
like, you know, he's, he's a Wall Street sophisticate.
39:13
There's been some progress bringing inflation down, but
39:16
there are still multiple inflationary forces in front of
39:21
us. This is interesting.
39:22
Guys. Think about large fiscal
39:25
deficits. Yes, you know, let's go out here
39:29
to the US. Debt clock, hold on U.S. debt
39:34
clock. While I do that, I want to make
39:38
sure. And yes, I do, I have you guys
39:41
on there. Does it, does it tell us our
39:44
deficit on here somewhere? Somebody, somebody send me an
39:47
e-mail. I'm just curious.
39:49
But look, this is key. We, we did it.
39:51
We've we've been following this. We got the 30-4 trillion, 900, I
39:56
almost said million billion. Don't forget 1 trillion, not 34
40:03
trillion, just one trillion is equal to 1,000,000 * 1,000,000,
40:09
OK? Where's the deficit number on
40:12
here? I'm in PFCI, apologize somewhere
40:15
on here. It's a deficit number, but let's
40:17
go check cuz this number keeps going up.
40:21
The dollar to silver ratio now sits at 248.
40:26
Remember not long ago that was at 0 because this number
40:30
measures the increase in the dollar supply, the M2 money
40:34
supply over here. OK, how much, how many dollars
40:39
are created every year as it compared to for each ounce of
40:44
silver that is created from the from the from from industry, OK.
40:49
So for each ounce of silver that's being created, we have
40:53
$248. So that's the dollar, say it's
40:57
over the ratio right now. And here's the five year
41:01
average. Just absolutely crazy.
41:03
And where's the paper? Here it is right here, paper to
41:07
silver ratio still above 400. All right, that's the number of
41:11
electronic oz that are traded. And for those of you who are new
41:16
to the debt clock, if you hover over it up here, it'll give you
41:20
the definition. So if I go back and hover over
41:22
it, the paper to silver ratios, the number of paper silver Oz
41:26
traded on the major world silver exchanges divided by the actual
41:32
world production of silver in Oz, Where's the deficit on here?
41:37
It's going to drive me crazy feeling foolish while you know,
41:41
you guys understand, right? This is a live stream.
41:45
Corporate assets somewhere on here, and we got to have our
41:50
deficit. But you know what?
41:53
We'll save that one for another day.
41:54
Let's go back to what Jamie Dimon was saying, OK?
41:59
Large fiscal deficits. This is what could cause
42:02
inflation. Yes.
42:04
I don't know. Is it a trillion, 2 trillion,
42:06
whatever it is, the deficit's horrific infrastructure needs.
42:10
Yeah. You know.
42:13
John Little on the silver can. We pointed out a good, a good, a
42:16
good, a good point like China over the last 20 years has been
42:20
building high speed rail systems and major infrastructure
42:24
projects. We're in the United States.
42:26
We've been building a lot of bombs and bombing a lot of
42:30
countries. I mean, the reality is that the
42:32
infrastructure in the United States is in bad, bad shape, OK,
42:36
Restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,
42:43
Diamond said in a statement, along with the bank's second
42:47
quarter results. He said, therefore, inflation
42:50
and interest rate rates may stay higher than the market expects.
42:55
OK, We're not going to read this next stuff because it just talks
42:57
about how we had surprisingly low inflation, which by the way,
43:00
we had called here in the basement that that would be the
43:02
case. OK?
43:05
But it's not just Jamie Dimon, because.
43:07
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week expressed
43:12
concern that holding interest rates too high for too long
43:16
could jeopardize economic growth.
43:19
He was teasing. Right line.
43:22
Is that another way to say that line?
43:25
That rate reductions could be on the horizon as long as inflation
43:29
continues to show progress? Diamond, OK, this is the part.
43:32
Diamond has joined many economists in sounding the alarm
43:36
on the burgeoning U.S. debt. And deficits, I hope you
43:42
understand the difference between the debt level, which is
43:45
the 34.9 trillion, OK, and the deficit, which is the amount of
43:51
money on an annual basis that our government spends in excess
43:54
of what they bring in. And that deficit then only adds
43:58
to the debt level. I think we're doing it like
44:00
what, a trillion dollars every hundred days, which is crazy.
44:05
And this higher interest rate environment also adds
44:10
significantly to the debt level. And we're in a situation right
44:14
now where the world doesn't want to buy our debt, they're saying.
44:19
You know, we've looked at the last. 50 year return on U.S.
44:24
Treasuries and gold actually beat it.
44:26
They're also just looking at the condition.
44:29
I mean, what do you think the world is thinking right now
44:32
looking at the United States, when we had what happened?
44:34
Yesterday. It's just unbelievable, OK, The
44:37
federal government has so far spent OK so far.
44:42
So we're, we're about halfway through the year so far, OK, 855
44:47
billion more than it has collected in 2024 fiscal year
44:52
for fiscal 2023. So last year the government's
44:56
deficit spending came in at $1.7 trillion.
45:01
Now, what does this have to do with the price of silver and
45:04
gold? You might be asking, right.
45:06
Everybody says, Oh, well, you know, if, if, if, if inflation
45:11
go, if inflation goes up and the Fed has to keep interest rates
45:14
higher, that's bad for silver and gold.
45:17
No, this is all short term noise.
45:20
You got to remove yourself from all this short term noise
45:24
they're throwing at us about interest rates and everything
45:26
else. At the end of the day, guys,
45:28
think about this, think about this.
45:30
What is inflation? What is inflation?
45:33
What is 10% inflation, right. That's.
45:38
Excuse me? That's a 10% decrease in the
45:42
value of your dollars. OK.
45:46
What happens when the value that's 10% decrease in the real?
45:50
Value of your dollars. What happens when the dollar
45:52
goes down in value, right? The value of silver and gold,
45:56
it's not the it's the value of silver and gold maintain
45:59
themselves. It's not the price of silver and
46:02
gold that are going up, it's the value of the dollar going down,
46:07
right? And we are, we are going to have
46:09
higher inflation, right? And they'll try to fool us and
46:12
all the all these fancy, it's very simple, right?
46:17
Very simple, right? 20% inflation.
46:20
That means the value of your dollar went down by 20%.
46:24
OK, OK. It's not the price of gold going
46:28
up, it's the value of the dollar or silver, same thing going
46:32
down, it's the value of the dollar going down.
46:35
And unfortunately. We're a lot like Japan, OK?
46:39
The Japanese are in the worst condition of anyone in the
46:43
country, right? They did yield curve control.
46:46
We're going to have to do yield curve control in this country.
46:49
That means basically, and I'll make it real simple for you, OK?
46:52
That means basically, when there's so much debt.
46:56
Does this sound familiar? Here, let's go.
46:58
Look. This take two seconds.
47:01
Look up here in the upper left hand corner.
47:03
OK, there you go. Remember Jamie Dimon's warning,
47:07
Jerome Powell's warning, Janet Yellen, right.
47:10
Even though everything's great, is warning when there's so much
47:13
debt that nobody wants to buy the debt.
47:17
OK, think about this. Nobody's going to want to own
47:20
the US debt. Who in their right mind is going
47:24
to loan money to the US government for 30 years and only
47:28
take a four or 5% interest rate on it?
47:31
I'm not. Are you?
47:33
Would you loan if you had 100 grand?
47:35
Right now I I I pose. This.
47:37
Question to you, I'm going to put my answer hold on here.
47:41
Comments. Uh oh, bear with me.
47:46
No, I'm saying no. All right, so I posed.
47:52
This question to you. If you had 100 thou, I want you
47:55
to visualize right in front of you right yourself right now,
47:58
$100,000 a big stack of of of these.
48:03
Yeah, Unicorn fart desk paper money. 100,000 of them probably
48:07
would be I don't know this, however big and you had a
48:11
choice, right? You could loan it to the US
48:14
government for 30 years and they're going to pay you.
48:18
What's the what's the yield? Let's go Look, we're going to go
48:21
on another field trip. Basement dwellers because I
48:24
think this is important for us to think about on a personal
48:28
level. Oh gosh, horrible picture.
48:35
OK, hold on here. Bitcoin, Bitcoins up.
48:41
I wonder what? Hold on here.
48:46
What the heck is going on now? We got all kinds of trouble.
48:51
I don't want that. OK, All right, We're going to
48:54
look for the 30 year treasury. Where the heck is it?
49:00
Hold on. That's not what I want.
49:07
OK, Where's the 30 year treasury note?
49:14
Well, you know what we'll do. Hold on.
49:16
Basement Dwellers 30. It came up.
49:24
There it is. Here we go. 30 year treasury
49:27
rate is 4.4%. OK, four point 3.9% last year.
49:33
So sorry that took way too long. I apologize.
49:38
Are you got 100,000 cash? Right, your, your, your, your
49:42
brother-in-law just came over and said here you go basement
49:45
dweller, congratulations, I love you.
49:47
Here's 100,000 cash. Are you going to loan that money
49:50
to the US government for 30 years with the promise that
49:54
they're going to pay you 4% per year?
49:56
Think about what you think these are going to be worth.
50:00
That's that's not it. This is going to be worth 30
50:03
years from now. Think about it, OK?
50:08
Are you going to take a 4% return on your money or would
50:13
you buy gold or would you buy silver or would you buy land or
50:19
would you hopefully if you had debt, you'd use that money to
50:22
pay debt off, right? But that's what the world is
50:26
doing right now. The world is looking at the US
50:28
and this is what we're just like Japan in Japan is the next one.
50:32
It's going to blow up in Japan is big here.
50:36
Let's go Japan, Japan economy rank 4th Japan's the fourth
50:50
biggest economy in the world. OK, guys, Japan is in big
50:55
trouble and we're we are, we are going, they blazed the trail and
51:00
we are going right after them, right?
51:02
Because what happens is remember the US debt clock, $34.9
51:06
trillion in debt, OK? You got 100 grand.
51:11
You don't want to give it to the government for 30 years with the
51:13
promise of a 4% interest. Are you like, are you kidding
51:16
me? You got to be a dummy to do
51:19
that, right? And you're no dummy, right?
51:21
That's what the world, that's what the other world investors
51:25
are saying. Because guys, we lived off the
51:27
world buying our debt for like the last what, 3-4 decades?
51:32
A lot of it had to do with the Petro dollar, all that.
51:35
But the world is suddenly revolting and saying, sorry, you
51:40
know, we don't want to keep buying your debt.
51:42
They're not completely getting out of it, but the trend is
51:46
going against that. So what does that mean?
51:49
Think about this. What does that mean?
51:50
That means that the US government, they still need to
51:53
borrow all that money. Yeah, 35 trillion, right?
51:57
They need to keep that financed. The only option to make it more
52:02
attractive is to have the interest rates go up.
52:05
So if the interest rate on that 35 trillion, let's say it goes
52:09
to 8%, OK, for a 30 year, right. But we'll, we'll pay you, OK?
52:13
You don't want to, you don't think 4% is high enough, We'll
52:16
pay you. We'll, we'll pay 8%.
52:18
Well, that's great. But think about this.
52:21
That double s the interest expense, which then because we
52:25
got these massive deficits right, makes the actual balance
52:31
of all the debt go even higher. And then when the balance of all
52:34
the debt goes even higher, then the people of the world are
52:38
like, well, you guys are just digging yourself into a deeper
52:40
and deeper hole, right? Yeah, we know.
52:43
But we're America. We've never defaulted.
52:45
We're the greatest innovative country on the face of the
52:48
planet. Well, don't worry about it.
52:49
We'll take care of it. They say, no, you won't.
52:51
So then the rates got to go higher, and then the hole gets
52:54
bigger and bigger. Eventually what happens is yield
52:58
curve control. And that means that the Fed.
53:01
Yeah, this guy, right? You remember him?
53:05
Everybody say hi to Jerome. That guy, he's got to print
53:12
money out of thin air and he's got to buy the debt.
53:16
And at that point, it's game over, game on.
53:18
And that's what Japan has done, and we are right behind him.
53:21
All right, guys. Thanks for being with me.
53:24
OK. I hope you have a great, great
53:26
day. I want to say again, thanks to
53:28
channel sponsor First Mining Gold.
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You can learn more about them at firstmininggold.com.
53:34
Fortuna Mining. All right, these live streams
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of the other online bullion dealers.
53:55
Have a great day. Thanks for being here.
53:58
OK. And I'll see you soon.