Latest / Success Story with Scott Clary / Tobi Pearce - Co-Founder of Sweat | The Founder Who Sold for $400M Says Most Business Advice Is Worthless
Transcript
- 0:00You say that most business advice is crap.
- 0:02More often than not, it's marketing material and highlight reel.
- 0:05Stuff. The majority of the conversation online is often about the story and what happened.
- 0:10It's not necessarily about why and how. That isn't valued.
- 0:13And people think that's advice, but they often think that the story is the advice.
- 0:17The best possible advice you can get in the world is actually free,
- 0:21and it is feedback that you get from doing.
- 0:23What if the biggest opportunities come from seeing what everyone else ignores?
- 0:28Toby Pierce built one of the fastest growing fitness brands in the world,
- 0:32transforming a simple idea into a global movement.
- 0:36In my second year, we made like 15 mil bottom line, and that was all cash.
- 0:39I thought that anything I touched will work here.
- 0:41I found out very quickly that wasn't actually true in reality.
- 0:43At that point, you're pretty good.
- 0:45You're in the top 1% of founders.
- 0:46That's actually a really dangerous point to be psychologically.
- 0:49When you lose, it becomes abundantly clear why you've lost.
- 0:51When you win, it's very hard to know why you win.
- 0:54Why do executives get paid a share load more money than you?
- 0:56Because they can think better than you can.
- 0:57He's scaled businesses and mastered the art of digital growth.
- 1:01From entrepreneurship to personal discipline,
- 1:03he's learned that growth only happens when you're willing to evolve faster
- 1:08than everyone around you.
- 1:09At what point on this journey,
- 1:11did you figure out that the medical cognition,
- 1:12thinking about how you think is more important than the actual tactics?
- 1:16So Toby, you see that most business advice is crap.
- 1:28Why?
- 1:29Firstly, most advice that people get in general
- 1:31actually comes from the internet, from interviews like this.
- 1:34And more often than not, it's marketing material and highlight real stuff.
- 1:42Firstly, and secondly, also, I think that the majority of the conversation online
- 1:46is often about the story and what happened.
- 1:49It's not necessarily about why and how.
- 1:52And so what I mean by that is that your most stories start like,
- 1:54oh, we sold a business for this much money.
- 1:56We built this company and have this money customers or whatever it may be.
- 1:59But that isn't value.
- 2:01And people think that's advice.
- 2:03But they often think that the story is the advice.
- 2:05But the advice actually isn't that.
- 2:07The advice is, well, this is what happened.
- 2:09But this is why we chose to do it that way.
- 2:11And we were presented with these options.
- 2:12And out of the options, we used this reasoning and decision-making
- 2:15to make that choice to then.
- 2:17You do this thing.
- 2:17That's actually the advice.
- 2:18So the first issue with most advice is that it's not actually advice.
- 2:21Right.
- 2:21So that's the foundation.
- 2:23The second thing is that I think a lot of the time
- 2:26when people, so really early on in someone's business journey,
- 2:30they're not famous.
- 2:31Their story isn't cool or interesting then.
- 2:34So they're not giving advice at that point.
- 2:37Normally, it's towards the end or even after the end of the business journey
- 2:41that they give advice.
- 2:41And one of the fundamental issues with that is that they're
- 2:44then telling the story and giving advice about,
- 2:47especially about how they got started 10, 15 years in the future.
- 2:52And from my perspective, I've always tried to be really,
- 2:55I guess, brutally honest about the fact that I'm like, honestly,
- 2:57I don't actually really remember everything that happened early on.
- 3:00I can tell you the cliff notes, right?
- 3:02But I can't actually do like,
- 3:03hey, while I was feeling this at this point in time,
- 3:04and this is how it worked, etc., etc.
- 3:06So therefore, even some of the advice about early on
- 3:08is you're basing it on memory from 10, 15 years ago.
- 3:11So it's not super reliable.
- 3:13So to me, the advice that matters, actually,
- 3:16is well, when presented with these sort of situations,
- 3:19this actually is the way to think about it
- 3:21and make these decisions.
- 3:22That's advice, a story, and one that's 10 to 15 years later
- 3:25isn't actually advice.
- 3:27Where do you suggest founders?
- 3:28Because I think that's very wise.
- 3:30So the people that founders usually look up to,
- 3:33they're so far removed.
- 3:36From the boots on the ground, bullshit,
- 3:39that they had to go through when they started a company,
- 3:41that memory is definitely foggy, for sure.
- 3:46Now that begs the question, okay,
- 3:47so then if not the people that have exited for tens
- 3:51or hundreds of millions that are now writing a book
- 3:54after they've retired,
- 3:56where do they find the best advice?
- 3:57Because then you have to weed and sift
- 3:59through all the garbage on the internet.
- 4:01And you advise founders for a living,
- 4:03I'm sure you get a lot of questions.
- 4:05Where do you send people?
- 4:06The best possible advice you can get in the world
- 4:10is actually free and it is feedback that you get from doing.
- 4:14Right, so, and that sounds a little,
- 4:16like, antithetical or counter-insuitive,
- 4:18but the best feedback and door directing
- 4:21you can get from, is actually doing things and failing.
- 4:23That's the best advice, right?
- 4:25Which you can get yourself.
- 4:26You can start doing whatever you want.
- 4:27In terms of actually trying to identify
- 4:29like an individual though,
- 4:31your impact is kind of been there and done that.
- 4:33I think there's several filters
- 4:35that I think you need to put whoever it is
- 4:36that you're looking at through.
- 4:37I think the first filter is that, you know,
- 4:40ideally, they've actually done the thing that you want to do.
- 4:43And I think specificity matters here.
- 4:44So it's not like you build a business and made money.
- 4:47That's very broad in general.
- 4:48It's like, oh, well, maybe I'm in, you know,
- 4:50direct to consumer, you know, consumable products
- 4:53or food products or supplements.
- 4:55Okay, well, out of that industry,
- 4:57you know, over the last 20 years,
- 4:58who are the best 10 people out this?
- 5:01So that's big filter, you know, number one.
- 5:05And just to be clear, I think even with that,
- 5:07you could go a layer deeper again.
- 5:08It's like all out of the companies
- 5:09or the people who have done that,
- 5:11maybe you've got a specific skill
- 5:12that you're trying to figure out wholesale
- 5:14or performance marketing or sales or whatever it is.
- 5:18Like you got to get really specific.
- 5:19Yeah, about finding the person you want to advice from.
- 5:21That's the first, you know, part.
- 5:23I think the second part is that even if you do find those people,
- 5:26you kind of need to put them through the screening process
- 5:29before, do you actually want to be giving advice?
- 5:32Because a lot of people don't really want to be doing it,
- 5:34but they still kind of do it.
- 5:35You know, so if they don't really get energized
- 5:37by like teaching or coaching,
- 5:38then you're probably not going to get the maximum value.
- 5:39Had something to do that.
- 5:40I would say that most people think they want advice,
- 5:44but then sometimes they hear good advice
- 5:45and they don't actually use it.
- 5:46I was going to say that that's the last part.
- 5:47Yeah, the last part.
- 5:48Cause like, even if you do get to someone who maybe is,
- 5:51they're a good educator, they want to be doing it.
- 5:53They've got relevant experience.
- 5:55But if you at the student are not ready,
- 5:58then it's redundant anyway.
- 5:59And as goes the saying,
- 6:00it's like, you know, the teacher appears
- 6:01and the student is ready, right?
- 6:03But I think like most of these things, you know,
- 6:05and kind of reinforcing that point,
- 6:07it's like, if you're a good entrepreneur
- 6:10and yeah, that's a loaded, you know, a term, I guess,
- 6:13but if you're a good entrepreneur, like,
- 6:14you'll figure this shit out.
- 6:15You figure out what skill of this you need to learn.
- 6:17You'll figure out who's got that skill.
- 6:18You'll figure out whether or not you're ready
- 6:20and comfortable receiving advice
- 6:21that maybe you don't agree with or understand,
- 6:23which I think is a critical point too.
- 6:25You know, a lot of the advice you get
- 6:27from people who have really experienced is very simple.
- 6:30And then people are like, oh, well, but it's so simple.
- 6:32Like that can't be any good.
- 6:33And I'm like, well, it being simple is the point, right?
- 6:37But a lot of people want to overcomplicate
- 6:38or they'll let their ego, you know,
- 6:40get in the way of actually learning.
- 6:41Cause you know, and just to be clear,
- 6:43this is a fundamental floor, I think psychologically
- 6:45a lot of founders experience.
- 6:46Once you get past the real Grammy and dirty phase
- 6:49of like, call it product market fitter, whatever.
- 6:51And maybe you're getting sort of 10 to 50 mil,
- 6:52you know, revenue at that point, you're pretty good.
- 6:55You're in the top 1% of founders now.
- 6:57You've done some pretty good stuff.
- 6:59You've clearly got high agency.
- 7:00You're clearly intrinsically motivated.
- 7:02You've clearly got a good work ethic, et cetera, et cetera.
- 7:05That's actually a really dangerous point to be psychologically
- 7:08for a lot of people, not all founders,
- 7:09but a lot of them get to that point
- 7:10thinking they're really good going to get advice,
- 7:12but they're not agreeing with the advice
- 7:13I'm not using it anyway.
- 7:14So we build an ego simultaneously
- 7:15that their own success, yeah.
- 7:16100% and you I've worked with quite a few people
- 7:18over the last few years like this.
- 7:19One guy, you're in particular who always comes to mind.
- 7:23You know, I was only in great business at the time.
- 7:26You're about 35 mil, you know,
- 7:28really like profitable service based business.
- 7:32And spent a lot of money, not just on me,
- 7:34but on other people for advice.
- 7:35And I'm not sure any of the advice was ever taken,
- 7:38you know, and then you fast forward two, three, four years later,
- 7:41business gets a bit bigger,
- 7:42gets a bit more complicated,
- 7:44didn't do the things a couple of years ago
- 7:45that maybe they should have.
- 7:46And now that business is effectively,
- 7:47it's nearly double the size,
- 7:49but actually not making any money.
- 7:51Interesting.
- 7:51You know, and some like,
- 7:52have you actually made any progress
- 7:54over the last two or three years
- 7:55on a gig for that person?
- 7:56No, they've gone materially backwards.
- 7:58It's so interesting because you focus,
- 8:00even after speaking to you for now,
- 8:02two minutes, three minutes,
- 8:04you focus a lot on how to think.
- 8:06Oh, I think like,
- 8:08it sounds like a silly thing to say,
- 8:09but I notice it more than others
- 8:11who would dive right into the tactics.
- 8:13You mentioned, you know,
- 8:14what makes a podcast boring
- 8:16is just sort of riffing through the origin story
- 8:18and then thinking that's the advice.
- 8:20But then the layer two,
- 8:22like the taking it a layer deeper or a level deeper
- 8:25is usually going into the tactics,
- 8:26like the actual case.
- 8:27So what's, you know,
- 8:28how do you have a positive role
- 8:30as on a Facebook ads, whatever the thing is?
- 8:32But then I actually really appreciate
- 8:34where you're taking this
- 8:35because this is how this podcast has shifted.
- 8:38When I first started this show,
- 8:38it was very tactical.
- 8:40And it's moved almost entirely,
- 8:42not exclusively,
- 8:42but almost entirely towards like the mental models.
- 8:45Oh, man, medical ignition,
- 8:47I think is a really, really big deal.
- 8:49And for those that are not familiar with it,
- 8:51you know, medical ignition is effectively just thinking
- 8:53about the way that you think,
- 8:54you know, and trying to improve the way
- 8:56that you think to improve your outputs or outcomes
- 8:58in your entrepreneurial endeavor.
- 9:02And yeah, it's an interesting thing,
- 9:03you know, that you call out
- 9:04because I think even,
- 9:06yeah, like a huge portion,
- 9:07arguably the biggest portion of people want the story
- 9:10because it's motivating and inspiring.
- 9:11Then there's some, you know, we'll call it,
- 9:14you know, almost like utilitarian people,
- 9:15like, oh, like just tell me what to do.
- 9:17You know, I'll go and do the thing,
- 9:18which is, you know, that there's some value
- 9:19into the tactics and sometimes you just need the answer,
- 9:22right?
- 9:23But I'd argue that the best of the best people,
- 9:26the ones who actually have like a really alternate
- 9:28and or a find way of thinking.
- 9:29So it's not really about the story or the tactics.
- 9:31It's actually, well,
- 9:32I don't need the tactics or the answers.
- 9:34So I was figuring them out
- 9:35because I know how to think about these sorts of problems.
- 9:38Yeah, and I think I actually think as well,
- 9:40like again, like, you know,
- 9:41looking at a broad spectrum of different founders,
- 9:44it's very easy to figure out the ones
- 9:45who have built the skill, not just the knowledge.
- 9:49And so when I frame that, it's like your knowledge
- 9:50or what I can take a tactic from you,
- 9:51that's a piece of knowledge, right?
- 9:53And I can go and, yeah, just copy paste that.
- 9:55But that's not necessarily a skill.
- 9:57I can't figure out that tactic by myself.
- 10:00And may or may not be able to contextualize
- 10:02why, why is that a good tactic and all worth doing?
- 10:06And I often frame this to people who are employees,
- 10:09not, not, not found around entrepreneurs.
- 10:13In the exact same way, I'm like,
- 10:14well, why do executives get paid
- 10:15a share load more money than you?
- 10:17And they're like, I don't know how to think.
- 10:18Well, yeah, because they can think better than you can.
- 10:20They have the capacity to make better judgments than you do
- 10:23and that is reflected in their decisions.
- 10:24Yes, there's potentially other variables and skills
- 10:26and whatnot, but ultimately,
- 10:27it's really about judgment, right?
- 10:30Yeah, and there's a reason why the executives
- 10:31at these gigantic organizations also get paid
- 10:34a lot more than any other employee
- 10:35because their responsibility is larger,
- 10:37but they are trusted with larger responsibility
- 10:39because of the decision making skills.
- 10:41And they're all is effectively built
- 10:42on the foundation of the way that they actually think
- 10:44and problem-solve.
- 10:45You've had several companies.
- 10:47I think there was like 16 or 17.
- 10:49Yeah, a lot.
- 10:50Many have not worked out.
- 10:51Heaps, heaps.
- 10:52Learn more from that as well,
- 10:53but I'm gonna say in a minute.
- 10:54At what point on this journey,
- 10:56did you figure out that the metacognition
- 10:58thinking about how you think is more important
- 11:00than the actual tactics?
- 11:02I don't think it was out of the gate, I'm sure.
- 11:03No, no, I'd like, honestly,
- 11:06I actually think I was almost down the opposite end
- 11:07of the spectrum.
- 11:08I was very unconscious, you know,
- 11:10because I was pricelessly naive,
- 11:13you know, in some regards.
- 11:14So naive, I was like,
- 11:15I'll just do this stuff.
- 11:17Yeah, and I was very fortunate early on.
- 11:21So I actually didn't really have
- 11:23the hard getting started story.
- 11:25As in I'd had a reasonably challenging kind of life
- 11:29up until that point,
- 11:30but I actually got into business.
- 11:32The first three things I did all worked
- 11:34and made money first go.
- 11:35You know, so I didn't really have any of that,
- 11:37like, oh, we grind it and had to raise money
- 11:39and miss out the other, you know, like in,
- 11:41where soon as I got online,
- 11:42which was my, some of my third business,
- 11:45as soon as I actually got online,
- 11:47yeah, in my second year,
- 11:48we made like 15 mil bottom line.
- 11:50You know, and that was all cash
- 11:51because there was no CapEx or inventory.
- 11:53It was an info product.
- 11:54And so I didn't have any of that.
- 11:56It wasn't until later, you know,
- 11:59when things got bigger, more complicated
- 12:00and I tried to do lots of different businesses
- 12:02at the same time, because I thought that, you know,
- 12:04I was like, oh, I've got the might as touch,
- 12:05you know, anything I touch will work here.
- 12:07I found out very quickly that wasn't actually true,
- 12:09in reality, but yeah, I'd argue that from the mistakes
- 12:12and whatever you learn materially more than winning,
- 12:14if anything, I think, you know,
- 12:16it's actually a paraphrasing something,
- 12:18Bane actually says in Batman,
- 12:20which is that he's like, oh, you know,
- 12:21victory has made you weak, right?
- 12:22And I think that's a really good insight, you know,
- 12:25that I think the more that you succeed unknowingly,
- 12:29especially early on in the journey,
- 12:31the more futile and fragile your success and skill set actually is,
- 12:36it's not until you've had some like very meaningful
- 12:39when I'd argue, I think public failure is also really good.
- 12:42And that's what it sounds like a very strange statement,
- 12:44but I think public failure and significant failure
- 12:46is really important, both for the psychological components,
- 12:48so, you know, build resilience and all this and stuff.
- 12:51But I also actually think, you know, when you lose,
- 12:53it becomes abundantly clear why you've lost.
- 12:56When you win, it's very hard to know why you've win
- 12:58and to make all these assumptions and assertions
- 13:00about why I wanted to do how good you are.
- 13:02Totally, and you see it with all these founders,
- 13:04they're like, oh, you know, yeah,
- 13:05and our product is different, our community is unique,
- 13:07you know, blah, blah, blah, I'm like,
- 13:08no, you just got channel arbitrage on TikTok show.
- 13:11And in five years time, all those founders
- 13:13will be probably realizing that looking back at right now.
- 13:15One of my favorite, funniest ideas is that Zuckerberg
- 13:20has really only been successful at creating Facebook.
- 13:22Everything else has been purchased.
- 13:23Or copied, or failed.
- 13:25Yeah, yes.
- 13:26One of the three.
- 13:28He really has not created a second good product,
- 13:30which is, I mean, it goes to show, obviously,
- 13:33in Greta Bismar guy, you don't actually need repeat successes
- 13:36if you ever really need to build inertia.
- 13:39But even at that level, it's not like everything
- 13:42he touches turns to gold.
- 13:43In fact, he just shut down the metaverse, the metaverse.
- 13:46Yeah, and all the ocular stuff
- 13:48for whatever's been bleeding billions, tens of billions.
- 13:51But this is the point too, you know,
- 13:53again, to the success piece is like success
- 13:55makes a lot of people really blind.
- 13:57And it also, it makes people very psychologically fragile,
- 14:02you know, because like I've seen this quite a lot,
- 14:04like part of the reason, I believe,
- 14:05I theorize that a lot of really successful founders
- 14:08that have exits, the reason they don't want to go
- 14:09and start more businesses afterwards
- 14:11is because they've got to get all the way back down
- 14:13in the detail.
- 14:14And that's the most fragile, vulnerable place to be,
- 14:17especially if you were unknowing
- 14:19and if you're going to a new space.
- 14:21So like I, you went from service businesses,
- 14:23you know, to kind of info products online,
- 14:25then drove to consumer mobile content subscription, right?
- 14:30I don't know anything about any of those.
- 14:31And then once I sold that company,
- 14:32then I went into marketplaces, professional services,
- 14:35you know, all this different stuff.
- 14:37But it hadn't occurred to me
- 14:39that that was quite different to a lot of people,
- 14:40whereas when you look at a lot of founders,
- 14:41they'll build and sell one company
- 14:42and they go back straight into the same industry
- 14:44because it's a safe, you know,
- 14:45yeah, easy founders that sell,
- 14:47wait for the non-gabit to expire
- 14:48and then build the same company.
- 14:49I found straight back in it.
- 14:50Like a exact same company, not even same industry sometimes,
- 14:52it's because it's just a very safe.
- 14:54Yeah, and whatever, if that's what you want to do, right?
- 14:57And for me, that was the complete opposite.
- 14:58You know, of what I wanted to do, I was like,
- 14:59I don't know, I want to feel, you know,
- 15:01small and vulnerable and going to a spot that's complex
- 15:04and learn because to me, that's more stimulating for me.
- 15:08If anything, I actually found, you know,
- 15:11this is like I've worked on with my coach, you know,
- 15:14quite a lot, but I got probably two or three years,
- 15:17you know, into building sweat and I kind of go,
- 15:19oh, oh, it's very obvious how this goes.
- 15:22Now I can see the next three to five years of this.
- 15:25Oh, that's actually not really that interesting.
- 15:26I mean, like sure, we'll make lots of money
- 15:28and that's great, you know, but I was like,
- 15:30oh, like I'm not really actually learning anything anymore.
- 15:33And so I tried very hard.
- 15:36You know, from a humility standpoint,
- 15:37I was like, oh, I'll focus more on, you know,
- 15:38kind of financial management, you know, ops,
- 15:41you know, leadership, I will try to lend those skills more,
- 15:44but like the actual business itself
- 15:45and the business model industry, I was like,
- 15:47oh, I can see exactly where this is going.
- 15:48And that was a real problem for me
- 15:50because I got very disengaged, you know, by the idea,
- 15:52and at this point, the business is still,
- 15:54you know, rocketing along doing this,
- 15:55but it just wasn't, there was no intellectual excitement for me.
- 15:59You know, one of my, one of my really good friends,
- 16:02he sold the company for, you know, in the hundreds of millions
- 16:05and he said, before he exited,
- 16:08he could like go home at lunch and take a nap.
- 16:10Like there was nothing for him to do anymore,
- 16:12like at that point, you have so many smart people
- 16:15that are behind and if you're good at hiring,
- 16:17we can chat about even that.
- 16:19But he said there was nothing to do before he exited.
- 16:23But this is also like part of the point, right?
- 16:25Once you've built inertia and you have a repeatable model
- 16:27if you're a systems thinker,
- 16:28because not everyone is a systems thinker,
- 16:30but businesses are just big systems, right?
- 16:32They should be.
- 16:33We can talk about most important mental models
- 16:35and I'm sure that's definitely one of them, but 100%.
- 16:38And so, yeah, it's a similar thing for me.
- 16:39You know, towards the end of my time,
- 16:42you know, it's where I was really running
- 16:45almost the whole company in about five meetings a month.
- 16:48Like, you know, yes, there's other bits and bobs outside of that
- 16:50and very, very, you know, it's a small part,
- 16:52like 90 plus percent of the influence and decisions
- 16:55that I would either wield or make,
- 16:58pretty much were concentrated into, you know,
- 17:00five, like primary meetings.
- 17:03And I'd argue too that in a general sense,
- 17:06that should probably be the goal for most people
- 17:09in management anyway.
- 17:10And when I say that, I don't mean necessarily
- 17:11going home at lunchtime, you know,
- 17:13but like in a general sense,
- 17:14like you want to build redundancy,
- 17:16like so for redundancy in some regards,
- 17:17like you want things to mostly be able to happen without you,
- 17:19whether that's through policy or process
- 17:21or systems, whatever it may be.
- 17:23And I'd argue culture is the biggest amplifier,
- 17:25you know, for good decisions,
- 17:26but like realistically, that should be the goal.
- 17:29The goal shouldn't be that things are dependent on you,
- 17:32even if you're the CEO of founder,
- 17:34I'd argue that the best leverage is leveraging yourself
- 17:36out of the business.
- 17:38And that makes the asset most sellable too.
- 17:40I agree.
- 17:40I was earlier on my career as part of a company
- 17:43where the founder was an incredibly strong entrepreneur,
- 17:46but there was always a ceiling.
- 17:47And he was closing him,
- 17:48so it was the company's doing 11 million.
- 17:51And he was, he was personally closing
- 17:52six million of that 11 million himself.
- 17:56It was the right limiter.
- 17:56It was a big belly run, my favorite right limiter.
- 17:58And I was part of the early on in my career,
- 18:01I joined the company, they hired me on
- 18:02and I saw him go through the process
- 18:04of hiring all these incredible executives,
- 18:07prepping for the exit, finally sold the private equity.
- 18:09But even after the sale,
- 18:11I looked at that company a couple of weeks ago
- 18:13and they're completely one bankrupt.
- 18:15It was a traditional case of...
- 18:17Pump them.
- 18:18Yeah, basically.
- 18:19And it was like,
- 18:20it was a significant multiplier on that exit.
- 18:22I think they sold for just over 90.
- 18:25And, you know, fast forward whatever, 10 plus years
- 18:27and there's nothing left of that.
- 18:29And there's, you know, all these creditors
- 18:30are trying to get the money back.
- 18:32It's like most of the COVID businesses in general,
- 18:33it's well right, you know.
- 18:35But the point is he did a,
- 18:37he did a sort of a quick job of trying
- 18:41to remove himself from the business.
- 18:43But it wasn't obviously a successful job longterm,
- 18:46but it was candidly enough for somebody to buy it.
- 18:49I was going to say it depends on what the objective is.
- 18:51You know, like if you're trying to build something
- 18:53that is enduring, you know, and sustainable,
- 18:55whether you're selling it or not, you know,
- 18:56but if you're trying to build something enduring
- 18:58and sustainable, then, yeah,
- 18:59building a culture that is non-reliant
- 19:01and found or agnostic or even CEO
- 19:03and executives who make agnostic is hard.
- 19:05Like that's hard, but I'd argue
- 19:06that would probably be the right thing.
- 19:08But, you know, if your goal is really like,
- 19:09oh, I've got a timeline here.
- 19:10One or two years, this industry markets about to peak.
- 19:13Like, you know, let's liquidate.
- 19:15If that's your goal, then it's not as relevant.
- 19:18But for the people that acquired it was.
- 19:21Yeah.
- 19:22Not the bad.
- 19:23The different problem for them.
- 19:24And, you know, it's interesting, right?
- 19:25Because like, you can make heaps of money doing that.
- 19:27If you understand the cycle and all the psychology of like,
- 19:31you know, VC, private equity, et cetera, et cetera.
- 19:33Like, is that that's all a game
- 19:36and respectfully a bit of a Fagazi?
- 19:37It's a game of musical chess, really.
- 19:40And even what's going on now in the AI space,
- 19:42you know, we'll look back on this in 10, 20 years time
- 19:44and go, oh, okay, cool.
- 19:45There was like 150 players, these two survived.
- 19:48Everyone that was died.
- 19:49But that's also just the nature of the beast.
- 19:51You know, that that's part of the game
- 19:52and it's also part of capitalism, right?
- 19:53Yeah, there's enough money to go around
- 19:55to get a whole bunch of people to have a crack at solving
- 19:57a particular problem.
- 19:58And obviously, there'll be a few winners.
- 19:59And even for them, I'm sure they bet on 10 different companies.
- 20:02And yeah, like, you're not spending that kind of money
- 20:05and just human bet.
- 20:06No, no, no, not at all.
- 20:08And if anything, especially the VC game,
- 20:10it's all pretty much like probabilistic.
- 20:13It's a very different game to, you know, private equity,
- 20:16like private equity and VC.
- 20:17You were private equity.
- 20:18Sorry.
- 20:19You're the people that quite, you know,
- 20:20you're the people I was strategic.
- 20:21Yeah, we're strategic.
- 20:22Which again, you know, that is a great competitive
- 20:24for the PEs and you know, what in that space anyway,
- 20:26but the actual investing game for private equity
- 20:28and VC is like fundamentally different.
- 20:30But again, like, these are things that as well,
- 20:33I really just didn't understand the first time going through
- 20:35this.
- 20:35I was a complete rookie.
- 20:36You know, and you're kind of like,
- 20:38it's sort of like you're in the middle of like a storm
- 20:40in the ocean, you just kind of go on with the waves, right?
- 20:42But if you really know what's coming on
- 20:44and I absolutely had no idea, we just get a surfboard out
- 20:47and you know, to what you go.
- 20:47But for most people, much more like me,
- 20:50you know, the first time they go through that style process,
- 20:52it can be a quite violent experience
- 20:54and a very like emotionally exhausting
- 20:56and crushed soul-crushing one.
- 20:58Was yours?
- 20:59Oh, massively.
- 20:59Yeah, we, so the long and short of it was,
- 21:02I, you know, had, you got infatuated with your idea.
- 21:06You know, like selling businesses after spending a lot of time,
- 21:08you know, in the States.
- 21:11Being in Australia, and that's a very different,
- 21:12you know, quite eye-opening experience.
- 21:14And so you went through that process.
- 21:16And as I said, first time around,
- 21:18we tried to sell, got rejected by 120 plus,
- 21:21you know, different, different firms and funds,
- 21:22you know, in a couple of weeks.
- 21:24Um, had one person who ended up,
- 21:26you know, wanting to buy the company,
- 21:28literally got paperwork signed,
- 21:30everything executed all the way right to the end,
- 21:32was sort of 36 hours out from like literally
- 21:35getting the first 50 mil US cash payment
- 21:37at the bank account and they pulled out, right?
- 21:40And so, and it's just to be clear,
- 21:42this is because I was much younger and hopefully less wise.
- 21:45The name now, but, you know, I'd told the entire company
- 21:47that we'd sold, you know, we'd, we'd recruit it into this
- 21:52because part of this was also a primary,
- 21:54like capital injection to grow the company,
- 21:56as well as a love secondary coming off.
- 21:58So we'd opened the new office into state,
- 22:00it recruits to 30 or 40 people,
- 22:02they pulled out of the deal,
- 22:03obviously didn't get any of the money,
- 22:04spent sort of nearly $11 million
- 22:06getting the company prepped, you know, for the deal.
- 22:09And then a few weeks later, COVID hit.
- 22:10So this all, this all happened, you know,
- 22:12like at the same time.
- 22:13So, from what I'm able to understand
- 22:17and what I've been able to like sort of deduce
- 22:19from what had gone down.
- 22:20So the guy who was running the deal,
- 22:22it was just been promoted to managing director
- 22:24and this was the first deal that he was going to be
- 22:27the guy like making the decision on,
- 22:29which the whole way throughout the process,
- 22:31there was some, you can see he was sort of
- 22:33struggling with some of that.
- 22:34And then we got literally right all the way to the end
- 22:37and then most of the kind of going through
- 22:38like the network and capital adjustments,
- 22:39they're certainly at the like,
- 22:40do the final pricing for the actual transaction
- 22:43to, you know, complete your illegal terms.
- 22:46Some of the numbers weren't adding up
- 22:48between like financials they'd been given
- 22:49by one of the big four, which was representing us.
- 22:52And then like other financials would provide to them.
- 22:53And as he thought that was like,
- 22:55there was something going on there.
- 22:56When every other day, it was just
- 22:57they were looking at different, you know, different factories.
- 23:00So that kind of like, at the very last minute,
- 23:02freaked him out and then whole deal
- 23:05was pulled out from underneath me,
- 23:07which again, because later going,
- 23:09we went back to market later and sold the company
- 23:10and whatever, which was positive.
- 23:12But again, I'd argued that experience
- 23:14taught me a lot more than actually.
- 23:15I was going to say like, what's the lesson there
- 23:17for founders?
- 23:18Because there's more there, so you sold for 400.
- 23:21And that was still like a great multiple.
- 23:24And I think there was a hundred million in revenue.
- 23:25Yeah, we're doing about a hundred and five years,
- 23:28maybe a hundred and twenty top line,
- 23:30you know, I think at the time, give or take.
- 23:32But transparently like realistically,
- 23:35and I say this with, you know, great humiliation
- 23:37reflection now, the business probably shouldn't have been
- 23:40bought in the way that it did in the structure
- 23:43that it did, you know, at the particular time.
- 23:44And again, I say that being able to very honestly reflect
- 23:48on what was going on in that kind of post-COVID environment,
- 23:51this particular industry and space, capital markets,
- 23:53all this sort of stuff, all these, you know,
- 23:55movements at the same time, I've had to be
- 23:57created what I would now refer to as a very frothy,
- 24:00you know, like investment space.
- 24:02And in Australia, I can't exactly what the status,
- 24:06but it's some crazy thing from the three years post-COVID
- 24:09out of every like hundred dollars
- 24:11that was publicly listed on the Australian stock exchange,
- 24:1585 cents out of every dollar is gone.
- 24:17Because of the prices of all the companies
- 24:19that listed have gone down by 85% some of them are dead now.
- 24:23And I think specifically in the fitness space as well,
- 24:25because a lot of this stuff was like,
- 24:26oh, we're locked down, we've got to like stay indoors.
- 24:28Well, at home fitness became the most popular thing overnight.
- 24:32And so this was a lot of the success we were having,
- 24:34not that this makes me happy,
- 24:36but it wasn't real success,
- 24:37but that was an inflated success period
- 24:39of what was happening there.
- 24:40Absolutely. And so then obviously,
- 24:42there was a huge normalization effect in sort of 2022
- 24:45and 2023, which I was already kind of long gone by this point,
- 24:48but nonetheless, you're not the best asset
- 24:51to buy that particular point in time.
- 24:52HubSpot is a success story partner.
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- 24:56less and less to find the businesses they want to buy from.
- 25:00Now when a buyer or a customer asks AI for a solution
- 25:03like yours, does your business come up?
- 25:05They're looking for a product, they're looking for a service,
- 25:07and they're going into some AI chat tool
- 25:09and they're saying, hey, help me find the best one.
- 25:11If your company isn't showing up, you're missing out.
- 25:14And most companies have no idea if their business is showing up
- 25:16or even how to show up.
- 25:18And by the time they figure it out,
- 25:20they've already lost a deal to somebody that figured out AI.
- 25:23This is what AEO is.
- 25:24Answer engine optimization.
- 25:26HubSpot AEO helps you show up in those moments
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- 25:34before the first form fill.
- 25:36That's the moment HubSpot AEO is built for.
- 25:39So check out HubSpot.com to learn more about AEO.
- 25:42HubSpot is the agent to customer platform
- 25:44for growing businesses.
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- 26:49Okay, so let's go into lessons from both of those transactions.
- 26:52So people can understand.
- 26:53So the first one, it didn't work out.
- 26:57You learned more from that than you probably did
- 26:59from the successful one.
- 27:01What was the lesson to take away for somebody
- 27:03that is actually looking to sell their company,
- 27:04going through the process for the first time
- 27:06that you had to deal with?
- 27:07Yeah, so I think, yeah, no, but I think,
- 27:10I think you need to understand the game you're playing, right?
- 27:12And what I mean by that is that,
- 27:14yeah, when you're selling a business or raising money,
- 27:16or selling and raising, or publicly listing,
- 27:18publicly listing and raising,
- 27:20there's all these different variables of the experience
- 27:22that you can have.
- 27:23It's super important to understand
- 27:25like what it actually is that you're selling, right?
- 27:27And so if you're, if you're, you know,
- 27:30start up early on and you go into a venture capital firms
- 27:33try to raise money, you're selling yourself.
- 27:35I'm a great founder.
- 27:36I'm gonna make your heaps of money.
- 27:37There's a good chance of this wins.
- 27:39And this idea is a reasonable idea in this market.
- 27:41It's big and we can do some stuff, right?
- 27:44But if that's, you know, you're super early on,
- 27:46if you're at the opposite end of the spectrum
- 27:47and you're like, oh, I hate like where a business
- 27:48does, I'm gonna call it 10 mil, you know, a bazaar.
- 27:53I want to sort of private equity firm.
- 27:54Okay, cool.
- 27:55Well, you're selling the huge cash flow of the business,
- 27:56which means the proposition of you being there
- 27:58is probably actually less interesting.
- 28:00So you want to go to sort of the asset
- 28:01as if I'm not going to be here.
- 28:02It's not dependent on me, right?
- 28:04Because if it is dependent on you,
- 28:05you're going to be massively discounted.
- 28:07Whereas if you're doing venture raising,
- 28:08you want it to be dependent on you
- 28:10and you want the venture capital funds
- 28:12to be invested in you, right?
- 28:14And I'm not saying that there's one rule for, you know,
- 28:16all types of deals or whatever.
- 28:17It's like my way to think about it for sure.
- 28:18It's a really important thing to understand.
- 28:20And I often, so I actually refer to this whole thing
- 28:23as like end game theory, and I position as end game theory
- 28:26because I don't think that all of the ends of this game
- 28:29are actually exits.
- 28:30Like I actually think for a lot of founders,
- 28:31the end is just you not working there
- 28:33and it becomes an asset that you hold
- 28:35and you have an employee CEO or GMMD, whatever it is
- 28:38that you want to have.
- 28:40Because ultimately for all founders,
- 28:43oh, sorry, maybe I should condition this.
- 28:44For most founders, ultimately,
- 28:46you want to make money, right?
- 28:48But making money in deal exits
- 28:51is actually very different in reality
- 28:53to what, you know, the headlines, you know,
- 28:55state, you know, a friend of mine
- 28:56who sold his business for 600 million,
- 28:58you know, deal value got 300 million cash up front
- 29:02and got not zero but close to zero of the remaining part
- 29:05because of, you know, deal structures and whatever.
- 29:08You know, I have another friend, you know,
- 29:09who's sold their business for $25 million
- 29:11and ended up getting five.
- 29:13You know, and so like, if you come back to the first principle
- 29:16that, you know, the goal here is to make money.
- 29:17An exit is an option.
- 29:20It's not the option.
- 29:22And I think this is saying that, again,
- 29:24societally, you know, entrepreneurs,
- 29:26we like a fantasize and, you know,
- 29:28about what this looks like.
- 29:29But again, you know, like most things are in our mind,
- 29:32they're not necessarily as good as, you know,
- 29:33in reality is what they actually, you know, end up being.
- 29:35And so I think, but yeah,
- 29:38overarching to answer your question in short,
- 29:40they're overarching insight really is,
- 29:41I think you need to know what game you're playing
- 29:42and or what you're selling.
- 29:43If you actually intend on getting a good outcome,
- 29:45both psychologically and financially.
- 29:47Now, this may seem like a silly question
- 29:49because you ended up selling for $400 million,
- 29:51but are you happy you sold?
- 29:54Yeah, I think the conflating variables at a time,
- 29:58it was the right choice, you know,
- 30:00for me at that time, both personally and for the,
- 30:02for the business as an asset.
- 30:04I think, I think, like you're looking at other businesses,
- 30:09you know, I either started or ones I've invested in now,
- 30:11like this is another company that I actually found
- 30:15during my time that I was working at SWET,
- 30:17which is, it's so funny, I was referred to as like
- 30:19the boring business that's going to make me heaps of money,
- 30:21which is we basically broke our driving lessons, right?
- 30:24And so like in Australia, you know,
- 30:26just in Australia alone, you know,
- 30:28we'll do about 35 million, you know, of lessons this year.
- 30:32And it's really interesting because when I look at that company,
- 30:35I've got some other investors in that.
- 30:36I'm like, hmm, I'd probably consider buying you out
- 30:39and I might stay in because I look at that.
- 30:42I'm like, oh, like a lot of people go,
- 30:43oh, there's driverless cars coming blah, blah, blah.
- 30:45I won't go into the reasoning as long reason here,
- 30:47but I'm not really worried about any of that
- 30:48for this particular business.
- 30:49And so when I look at this company, I'm like, oh,
- 30:51wow, marketplace, hard to penetrate, hard to compete
- 30:53with incredibly resilient, boring industry
- 30:55with low competition, low technical sophistication,
- 30:59incredibly high margins, great cash flow.
- 31:02But like what, unless I was going to sell that
- 31:04for an eye-watering multiple,
- 31:05financially, it just doesn't make a lot of sense.
- 31:08There's no incentive for me to sell.
- 31:10But if you'd have asked me five years ago,
- 31:11I'd be like, oh, no, I'm building sale, I'm making money.
- 31:13And yeah, let's go.
- 31:14So.
- 31:15Do you think most founders could be better off
- 31:18holding the asset, like you mentioned before
- 31:19and unhiring somebody to take it over completely?
- 31:21Like walk me through the map because I've,
- 31:23I know stories like this where people have this great,
- 31:27great exit on, well, that exit and air quotes.
- 31:30I say I should put great in air quotes.
- 31:31They have an exit, it looks good.
- 31:35They can talk about the numbers with their friends
- 31:37and they can maybe they'll even get a, you know,
- 31:40a Forbes article written about them,
- 31:41but like how much money do they actually walk away with?
- 31:45Even if you look at, I don't know,
- 31:48Hermosi's exact numbers,
- 31:50but I'm pretty sure that most of his money
- 31:51he was taking distributions while he was still actually
- 31:53building his gym company versus what he actually got
- 31:57after he sold it.
- 31:58Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 31:59No, yeah, it's super interesting.
- 32:02Like I definitely offended a few people going through this
- 32:06before unintentionally.
- 32:09But the way I, the way I look at this is,
- 32:12if you were to do almost like a pinnacle-esque version
- 32:16of your exit right to assess it,
- 32:18like a post-exit analysis, if you will,
- 32:21for most people, and again, countries, tax rates,
- 32:25you know, all this and stuff.
- 32:26If you sell a business for,
- 32:27let's call it 24, 25 million bucks,
- 32:30you're gonna wave goodbye to 30% of that straight up the top
- 32:34because you're gonna pay, say for example,
- 32:36Australia, subject to most of the rules,
- 32:38you pay about 25% capital gains tax,
- 32:42call it another 5% in fees, lawyers, accountants,
- 32:45you know, they set the other on whatever.
- 32:46And then let's assume that the business actually has
- 32:48like enough work and capital to run itself.
- 32:50So there's no work and capital adjustment either,
- 32:52which a lot of the time founders have actually
- 32:54like sucked all the work and capital out of the business.
- 32:56So then they end up having to, you know,
- 32:57put money in that comes out of the dual, I do a bit.
- 32:59Let's give it simple, right?
- 33:0024 million bucks, you know, 30% gone.
- 33:02So you've gone from 24 to 16.
- 33:05Normally I then say, well, most people,
- 33:07at least in my experience, most people then go,
- 33:09oh, well, I'll spend 5 million of that, I'll buy a car,
- 33:13I'll give my parents some money,
- 33:16I'll buy myself a house for a couple million bucks.
- 33:18Yeah, well, whatever it looks like,
- 33:19but let's just call it, you spend 5 million bucks one way or the other.
- 33:21So you end up with, you know, call it 11 million dollars,
- 33:24which I have often said, I'm like, firstly,
- 33:25you're in the top like a 0.1% of founders
- 33:27if you achieve that.
- 33:28And that's an incredible achievement, right?
- 33:30But most people think that selling a 25 means
- 33:32that then you're like on private jets
- 33:34and you're like yachts off the coast of the med,
- 33:36you know, Italy, you know, for the summer each year.
- 33:39But when you look at like 11 million liquid,
- 33:43for me, and also pretty much everyone that I ever spoken to
- 33:47that has achieved like an exit with like a meaningful,
- 33:49you know, liquid liquid capital on the other side,
- 33:51almost all of them have the same experience.
- 33:53And then it's like, oh my god, yes,
- 33:54I've exited, holy shit, I do not want to lose that money, right?
- 33:58And so with 11 million bucks, you know,
- 34:00you're two or three bad choices away from nothing.
- 34:04So then most people, and that's if you are
- 34:06reasonably responsible and you're reasonably good investor,
- 34:09most people are going, well, I want to invest this,
- 34:12you know, call it $10 million,
- 34:13I want to invest this to fund my life.
- 34:15And you go, okay, well, firstly,
- 34:17the predominant like return investments people get
- 34:20from things like, you know, stocks and property
- 34:23and whatnot is actually in capital growth,
- 34:25which means if you want to get that to spend it,
- 34:27you have to then sell it.
- 34:29It's not cash.
- 34:30Then if you are investing, that's just called all in bonds
- 34:34and you're making a 5% you're in that yield,
- 34:36you're making half a million dollars a year,
- 34:39you know, on the 10 mil pre-tax,
- 34:41because that'll get income taxed.
- 34:43So if you lose half of that income tax,
- 34:45you end up with a quarter a mil, you're a year,
- 34:47not a lot of money.
- 34:48Which again, just to be clear, it is, but it isn't,
- 34:51that's the same time.
- 34:52I'm not plugging the stick at that.
- 34:53Yeah, for a lot of people,
- 34:54that would be life changing itself,
- 34:55ignore the 25 million,
- 34:56even getting a quarter million dollars a year
- 34:57on repeat, doing no work,
- 34:59would be life changing.
- 35:01But I think that the fantasy that that 25 million
- 35:03means you're on your own jets of yachts,
- 35:05or you've got like 10 cars and a massive like mansion,
- 35:07that's not necessarily real.
- 35:09And to be clear, that might not be the goal for some people.
- 35:12And if it's not, that's also great.
- 35:14If you're super happy living on 50 grand a year,
- 35:17that's amazing.
- 35:18But we're not talking about that.
- 35:20We're talking about people who want to sell the business, right?
- 35:22And so the reality is that, you know,
- 35:24from 25 mil you end up getting not actually a huge amount
- 35:27of your real financial freedom.
- 35:29I'm just to put this into perspective,
- 35:31especially in a major US city, New York, Miami, LA, SF.
- 35:34What is $250,000 is I don't even think considered.
- 35:38No, you'd be technically, you'd be in the top few percent.
- 35:40But that's not, again, it's the issue is that
- 35:43it's the top few percent of world statement
- 35:45is not represented in lifestyle
- 35:47by what people think the top few percent of lifestyle is.
- 35:49And just going back to that too,
- 35:51if you've sold a business to 25 million,
- 35:52let's just say you were doing like a boring service-based
- 35:54business, changing tires on cars, for example,
- 35:57you're going to sell that for maybe five times
- 35:59EBITDA are multiple.
- 36:00And if you're making $5 million a year EBITDA
- 36:02with a nice translation to free cash flow,
- 36:06I can't imagine any world where I'd be selling that
- 36:08for 25 mil pre-tax, pre blah, blah, blah,
- 36:14to then end up with a little bit of income.
- 36:15And again, maybe the industry is an interesting cycle,
- 36:17blah, blah, blah, maybe you want to get out,
- 36:19maybe you want to retire, sure.
- 36:20And there's other variables as the reasons why you may.
- 36:22But generally speaking to me,
- 36:23that math is not super inspiring relative to,
- 36:27well, I could just have the five million cash a year.
- 36:29I agree with that.
- 36:30That makes it something no investor is no partner.
- 36:32Yeah, yeah, sorry, yeah.
- 36:34Well, not only that, yeah, if you were selling it
- 36:3625, but assumes you're only 100%,
- 36:37which a lot of the time is not true, firstly.
- 36:40And number two, it also assumes that you've got no debt,
- 36:43because debt is also normally like an exit adjustment,
- 36:47you have to value.
- 36:49Three, it also assumes that the deal is you sign,
- 36:52you get 25 million cash liquid,
- 36:53which I have not actually seen a deal of that side.
- 36:58Oh, yeah, there's no script for script role over,
- 37:00so into public equity,
- 37:02or some sort of like vendor financing or contingent income.
- 37:06So like a lot of the deals you see, not all,
- 37:08but a lot of the deals are like,
- 37:09oh, we'll pay you $100.
- 37:10I'll give you 30 bucks in cash today.
- 37:13Yeah, I'll give you 30 bucks in a year or two,
- 37:15which is effectively vendor finance.
- 37:17And you have to do really well
- 37:18when the business grows XYZ.
- 37:19I'll give you another 30 bucks.
- 37:21But the reality is a lot of the people
- 37:22that are doing these deals and pricing them
- 37:24and structuring that way, they're like,
- 37:25oh, well, if I'm going to give you the contingent income,
- 37:27the extra 30 bucks for performing against these KPIs,
- 37:30well, I'm going to make $100, so that's okay.
- 37:33But then on the off chance that we don't make that,
- 37:35I want downside protection,
- 37:36and then I get a 30% discount on your business.
- 37:39You know, and so like again,
- 37:40come back to the point before knowing what you're selling
- 37:42and like what the game actually is.
- 37:43A lot of money, especially in private equity,
- 37:46a huge amount of the money that these guys make
- 37:48is through financial engineering.
- 37:49And engineering happens at the deal level.
- 37:51But that's traditionally, it's a little,
- 37:53it's a bit like black box slash opaque,
- 37:56you know, to people who are not in that industry or game.
- 37:58And a lot of people lose a lot of money
- 37:59as a result of that,
- 38:00but they're very unconscious about it on the way in,
- 38:02which is not their fault.
- 38:03Like how the hell do you...
- 38:05No, you know that first of all.
- 38:06You're a...
- 38:07Well, I mean, you have good people around you, hopefully.
- 38:10But I mean, like you said before,
- 38:11you had a company that was doing about 120 million.
- 38:15And you still didn't have people,
- 38:16well, you had some people,
- 38:18obviously to help you structure a deal.
- 38:19But you still said you felt like you're flying
- 38:21a mostly blind.
- 38:22Well, but this is part of the interesting aspect
- 38:24of like having good advisors, right?
- 38:26You know, I had a great legal team, really good at law.
- 38:30You had a great finance team,
- 38:32and I can't think, really great at finance and accounting.
- 38:34I had a great person doing tax, really great at tax.
- 38:37But was there anyone who was actually saying,
- 38:38who will hold on for you as the guy
- 38:41who's about to actually make money?
- 38:43Does this actually make sense?
- 38:45I can tell you the lawyer will say,
- 38:46legally, this makes sense and is normal.
- 38:49The tax person will say,
- 38:50legally, this is the right tax structure.
- 38:51But who's actually saying, well, hold on, no dude,
- 38:53like for you as an individual and shareholder,
- 38:55like, is this actually a good idea?
- 38:57And that advice at the concept of this advice
- 38:59almost doesn't exist.
- 39:00Because even if you go to a wealth fund,
- 39:02you know, to work with wealth managers,
- 39:04respectfully, I'm painting a very broad brushstroke here.
- 39:08Yeah, but like, respectfully,
- 39:09they actually give a shit about what return you get.
- 39:11That entire industry,
- 39:13and I'm just super clear to someone convinced me otherwise,
- 39:15that the entire industry is based on what,
- 39:17if the value of your investments go up, we get paid.
- 39:22The value of your investments go down.
- 39:24We get paid, you lose money.
- 39:27But either way, we get paid.
- 39:29Yeah, and so like a lot of the advisory industry is about,
- 39:31if you do a shit deal as a lawyer, I get paid.
- 39:34As a tax person, if you do a shit deal, tax wise,
- 39:36and you lose all this money and tax, guess what?
- 39:38I still get paid.
- 39:39Yeah, and so like a lot of the industries
- 39:40not actually shareholder or founder friendly,
- 39:42and it's not designed to be.
- 39:43It's interesting.
- 39:44That's scary for a first time founder.
- 39:46I think that as people are listening to this,
- 39:48they're trying to figure out now.
- 39:49Okay, so who do I talk to about my first transaction?
- 39:53My bits is going well.
- 39:55Is it about maybe just self-advocacy?
- 39:58Maybe, maybe it's maybe,
- 40:00and not to bring up another meta-cognitive insight
- 40:04or mental model, but is there a framework
- 40:07that you use to evaluate how to navigate,
- 40:10I mean, even your own goals as a founder,
- 40:11as opposed to outsourcing that decision to somebody else?
- 40:14Yeah, honestly, the way I've often thought about this,
- 40:17and this is actually an overarching insight
- 40:19about business in general, I think it's not that complicated.
- 40:22I think most aspects of business are not that complicated,
- 40:24but people don't want to actually spend the time
- 40:26thinking and reflecting.
- 40:28They want the answer, which comes back to a point
- 40:31we're talking about earlier.
- 40:31They're not actually interested in generating the skill.
- 40:33So like, for example, it's like,
- 40:35oh, what's a really sophisticated framework
- 40:37you can use to think about exits?
- 40:38It's like, well, what do you want to achieve?
- 40:41Like what in your life, what do you want?
- 40:43It's like, are you seeking to retire
- 40:45and you need like a lump of cash?
- 40:46Are you seeking to like liquidate your assets
- 40:48so you can kind of get some money and then go again?
- 40:50You're like, where are you at?
- 40:51And based on that, like, what actually are your goals?
- 40:54Number one, get really refined about that.
- 40:55And not just like, I want to sell for a hundred million.
- 40:57It's like, no, like, actually think about it.
- 40:58You know, I do an exercise a lot of people that I work
- 41:01with called the Personal P&L,
- 41:02which is like, put me together your personal P&L
- 41:04based on your current lifestyle,
- 41:06and then put me five or 10 years into the future
- 41:08and then design me the best possible life
- 41:10you think you'd live within reason,
- 41:12the best possible version of your life?
- 41:13Let's figure out how much that costs.
- 41:15And then we use that as the foundation
- 41:17to actually calibrate what are not deals
- 41:18and what not make sense.
- 41:20Because if it doesn't actually serve your life,
- 41:22which to be clear the overarching question
- 41:23is how does this serve me, right?
- 41:25If it doesn't actually serve your life, what's the point?
- 41:27And then all of the other,
- 41:29once you've gotten really kind of structured around
- 41:30what that looks like,
- 41:31all of the other stuff becomes easy.
- 41:32It's like, I'll, a whole bunch of people have come with me.
- 41:34I've got three offers of my business.
- 41:36I was like, okay, well, does it help you achieve that goal?
- 41:38Yes or no?
- 41:39You just frame all decisions through that.
- 41:41A hundred percent.
- 41:42Most people don't do this at the front,
- 41:43which to be clear,
- 41:44I wasn't super sharp about that.
- 41:46I was like, so almost deer in headlights.
- 41:50Cause like, as I was like in my early, mid 20s,
- 41:52when we first started going through this deal exit process,
- 41:55even if you see $50 million cash presented to you,
- 41:58it's like, whoa, right?
- 42:00And I was very fortunate early on.
- 42:02Like I made a lot of money on,
- 42:06from your distributions really early on.
- 42:08Like by the time I was 22, 23,
- 42:10I'd already taken nearly 30 million bucks out of the business.
- 42:12And so I'd been very, very fortunate.
- 42:14That's not the common experience.
- 42:16A lot of founders don't make money early on.
- 42:17They have to make it on the exit, if that makes sense,
- 42:19especially these sort of, you know,
- 42:21tech startups and whatnot.
- 42:22But, and I had no idea.
- 42:25I had no focus going into that deal
- 42:27other than let's sell the business.
- 42:30Was there an event or an inflection point
- 42:33that forced you to think differently?
- 42:35Yeah, it was the first transaction failing.
- 42:38Because it's been so much of the company's capital
- 42:41getting ready for the deal.
- 42:43And it was a slap to the face.
- 42:44Oh, huge slap.
- 42:45And also like very humbling,
- 42:46you're in a really good way.
- 42:48And, you know, this is a sort of time
- 42:50where I was like, you know,
- 42:52my living costs are going up,
- 42:53you know, like a whole bunch of other things
- 42:54were going on in the year kind of in the background outside of work.
- 42:56And then I was like, oh, shit, actually,
- 42:58if I keep running this way,
- 42:58that actually won't work.
- 43:00Yeah, and so this is another really interesting insight
- 43:04about a lot of founders.
- 43:06And I'd argue also a lot of like an influencer founders,
- 43:09specifically, you know,
- 43:11that they're not necessarily always
- 43:14very conscious business people.
- 43:15They're great promoters and marketers
- 43:16and maybe even sometimes good product people
- 43:18where they're not great business people.
- 43:20You know, and the difference between that is
- 43:21they're not like financially literate
- 43:23and or financially conscious.
- 43:24And so for all these people,
- 43:25they build great businesses with two, three, four, five years.
- 43:27But then they get to that point
- 43:29where it's matured a bit, it's slowed down.
- 43:30They can't really sell it.
- 43:31They have no real exit.
- 43:32It's not making much bottom line
- 43:34and they get this really stuck, you know, position.
- 43:36And that happens to quite a lot of people.
- 43:37You have been there with other businesses too.
- 43:39But it's hard, you know, it's simple, but it's hard.
- 43:44I want to change gears a little bit.
- 43:48When we first started speaking,
- 43:49I hope this isn't too much of a stretch,
- 43:50but I think you'll understand where I'm going with this.
- 43:52So when we first started speaking,
- 43:52we were talking about where to get advice from.
- 43:54And you were describing the perfect person
- 43:56to get advice from.
- 43:59There's through lines between the person
- 44:01that you look for to get advice from
- 44:03and somebody who you'd want to hire to work for you.
- 44:05A lot of the personality traits you were describing,
- 44:07because even before we press record,
- 44:09we were thinking, you know, what should we chat about?
- 44:10And you're like, well, let's talk about culture
- 44:12and hiring and delegation and finding A players.
- 44:14And, you know, everyone says they want an A player,
- 44:16but they don't know what that actually means.
- 44:18But when you were actually describing
- 44:20who to look for for advice,
- 44:22you were actually, in my mind, describing somebody
- 44:24who is like an A player personality.
- 44:27But you've obviously figured out how to do that
- 44:28from an advice perspective, somebody who's like a mentor
- 44:30or somebody who's sort of succeeded.
- 44:33The other thing that you like to speak about,
- 44:34which I think is very valid,
- 44:35and we should speak about it,
- 44:36is how to find that person to bring into your company.
- 44:39Like what is it, we can talk about,
- 44:41you take whatever way you want, you want to talk about A player
- 44:43and hiring with talent or culture or both
- 44:45because I think they are one of the same.
- 44:48Well, yeah, I don't think you can hire good people
- 44:50without having a really clear understanding
- 44:52of what you're called to do there.
- 44:53Yeah, sure.
- 44:54And this has all been a really,
- 44:57I think you're interesting like your topic of debate.
- 44:59Again, there's so many of these like books on culture
- 45:01and all these podcasts on whatever on culture.
- 45:03There's so much of them and I'm like,
- 45:05and the cut for all these people is,
- 45:07I'm like, well, define for me what culture is in one sentence.
- 45:10And if you can't, then you don't know what it is, right?
- 45:13And I would do better.
- 45:14I would define it in one word, culture,
- 45:15it's just your standards.
- 45:17That's it.
- 45:17It's your standards for how you work,
- 45:19it's your standards for how you behave,
- 45:20it's your standards for your goals, all these things,
- 45:24but it's the confluence of your standards
- 45:26universally in your organization, right?
- 45:29And part of the reason why I think that you can't really recruit
- 45:32good people or maybe I would rephrase that as like the right,
- 45:34good people near for your business,
- 45:36if you don't have a clear understanding of your culture,
- 45:37is that the whole interview process is like speed dating.
- 45:40And what you're trying to do to some of the points
- 45:42before around advice and mentoring and whatnot,
- 45:44as you're trying to say, well,
- 45:46have you done what I want you to do
- 45:48if that is findable if those people exist?
- 45:50Like have you done the thing that I want you to do?
- 45:52And if you have, it's all about,
- 45:53do I think you have the right behavior
- 45:55and attitude to fit in here?
- 45:56If you can't perfectly screen for have you done the precise thing
- 45:59I want you to do for whatever reason,
- 46:00because sometimes this thing hasn't been done before
- 46:03or those people are not available
- 46:05where you live or whatever country you're in.
- 46:06Well, then you go to put specificity,
- 46:08you go to the side and you've got to hide broadly and generally
- 46:10and you go, okay, well, what are the raw skills that I need?
- 46:13You do do this.
- 46:13And so as soon as you've screened
- 46:14for the raw skills and capabilities,
- 46:16then it's all back to behavior and attitude.
- 46:18You're effectively trying to personally map
- 46:20you to the business, right?
- 46:22And the simplest example of this is computer scientists
- 46:25who works in the government doing whatever it is that they do,
- 46:27a computer scientist who works in the gigantic corporate,
- 46:29doing what they do.
- 46:30Computer scientists who's like a CTO co-founder
- 46:32for a startup company, they're three quite different people.
- 46:36So even if they all program in, I don't know,
- 46:40objective C or Ruby or whatever it may be,
- 46:43it doesn't matter, right?
- 46:45Because they're completely behaviorally,
- 46:46they're completely different people
- 46:47and more often than not on average,
- 46:49they would fail if they moved to one of the alternate options.
- 46:53And so when you're screening for things like behavior and attitude
- 46:56and you're trying to find an A player,
- 46:57presuming that they've either done what you want to do
- 46:59or they've got the right raw skills to do it,
- 47:01or all of that screening is really a pressure testing
- 47:04like relative to the standards that we have,
- 47:06is this relationship you're actually going to work?
- 47:08And it's no different to your intimate relationship,
- 47:10but you would reframe it as values.
- 47:12It's like you can have all the likes and interests
- 47:15and commonalities with the other person,
- 47:17but if you're not compatible with a values level,
- 47:20like you fundamentally see the world in a similar way
- 47:23and you value similar things,
- 47:24well, the relationship is doomed from the start.
- 47:26And so to your point before,
- 47:28and like recruiting A-grade players,
- 47:31I think that's a bit of a fugazi.
- 47:32You know, like there's like it doesn't exist
- 47:35the way that people think it exists.
- 47:36Yeah, and for a few basic reasons, like one,
- 47:40and you said this before, which is really great frame,
- 47:42I said the best, the best, the best A-grade players
- 47:44are probably working for themselves.
- 47:46Right, not all of them, but let's assume
- 47:48that they're meant to get.
- 47:49I've always thought that the best person you can hire
- 47:50is an entrepreneur that for whatever reason,
- 47:52the season of the life that they're in right now
- 47:55does is not conducive.
- 47:56Yeah, entrepreneurs.
- 47:57I know it's kids age, whatever.
- 47:59I want an entrepreneur that needs a paycheck
- 48:01because he just had a kid.
- 48:02Like that's who I want,
- 48:04but it's hard to find those people.
- 48:05Of course, and then, you know,
- 48:07outside of the entrepreneurs,
- 48:08there might be other like really, really good people.
- 48:11And you know, I like to, not always,
- 48:14but very often rationalize my numbers, right?
- 48:16So let's just say that an A-grade player in theory
- 48:21or a conceptual level is out of 100 people
- 48:26that you could work with, you know,
- 48:27from a capability wise,
- 48:28however you measure that in one specific field,
- 48:30there at least one, if not two standard deviations
- 48:32above the norm, right?
- 48:34So purely based on that,
- 48:35they're 85 to 95% of people in that 100 are not A-grade players.
- 48:40It's like immediately from the start,
- 48:41which means that if you're interviewing
- 48:43for however many roles,
- 48:43you're gonna have to interview thousands of people
- 48:45just to find a handful of them, right?
- 48:47So mathematically, you can already see
- 48:49that the likelihood of you achieving that is low, right?
- 48:53Then when you layer on another concept that's like,
- 48:56oh well, the best players are probably gonna get incentivized
- 49:00the best and or there'll be more people wanting them,
- 49:03which means there's gonna be a concentration of capital
- 49:06when other like non-capital benefits for those people.
- 49:09So where does, for example,
- 49:10like the best tech talent will not,
- 49:12sorry, not the best,
- 49:13but a lot of the best tech talent will,
- 49:15the same way as this go.
- 49:16And they're paid an eye-watering amount of money.
- 49:18So if you assume that not all,
- 49:20but a huge portion of the A-grade players
- 49:22are incentivized by money
- 49:23and other like non-financial benefits,
- 49:24they're gonna get the majority of that
- 49:26in certain parts of the board and certain companies.
- 49:28So if you're a small to medium sized business,
- 49:30make in 10 to 25 million bucks a year,
- 49:31the likelihood that you've ever met one is low,
- 49:34that you can afford them.
- 49:35Here's even lower again.
- 49:36And there's the right stage of their life
- 49:37that you can afford them.
- 49:38You've met them and they wanna work for you
- 49:40is very, very, very low.
- 49:41Now does that mean that you can't,
- 49:43it really is, right?
- 49:45But does that mean that you can't get like,
- 49:46really good people to work for you?
- 49:47No, it doesn't, but it's just the idea of like,
- 49:50A-grade players are gonna qualitative
- 49:52and quantitative level is actually very unreasonable.
- 49:56Instead, you just want good enough people.
- 49:59They don't need to be the best,
- 50:00and I would argue the best validator of that idea
- 50:02is that when you're small,
- 50:04and everyone who's had a rapidly growing business
- 50:06can relate to this.
- 50:06When you're small, you recruit these three people,
- 50:08oh man, they're so good.
- 50:09There's so much better than the last people
- 50:11we have for these roles.
- 50:12Oh, this is gonna be great.
- 50:13And then the business three X's and size
- 50:14and 12 months later you're like,
- 50:15you bring in a new person like,
- 50:16oh, they're so much better than those three people.
- 50:18And so this is idea of relativity.
- 50:20You're like from a skill set, a competency level,
- 50:23and also relevance to the size of the business.
- 50:26You could be a great engineer at a $5 million a year business
- 50:29and put the same person into a $105 million
- 50:31a year business and they could be terrible, right?
- 50:33And so I think, again,
- 50:35this is a society at large.
- 50:37We wanna simplify and be reductive with our ideas
- 50:41because we don't want to actually think
- 50:43through a conceptual level of what matters
- 50:44is like, well, what's an A-grade player?
- 50:46So an ideally who has relevant skill,
- 50:47if they don't have the relevant skill,
- 50:48they have incredibly good role skills
- 50:51and capacity to think.
- 50:53And they are beautifully aligned culturally.
- 50:55That's what an A-grade player is.
- 50:57It doesn't need to be anything else outside of that.
- 50:58If you wanted to make it actually understandable
- 51:00and usable on a day-to-day basis.
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- 53:13The thing that I see people being concerned with
- 53:16in not pursuing this unicorn mythical A-grade player
- 53:21is that it grades the culture and the quality
- 53:24of the business and then it turns these,
- 53:28again, mythical A-grade people away from the business
- 53:31and it, there's a quote or a saying,
- 53:34it's like A-grade people, attract more A-grade
- 53:37but then like B-grade will only hire C-grade.
- 53:39Like something along the way.
- 53:40A-grade is recruit, A-grade is B-grade is recruit,
- 53:42C-grade is.
- 53:43Is there any validity to that?
- 53:45I think so, but again, without, you know,
- 53:51yeah, without like, shunning orthodoxy here
- 53:53a little bit too much, you know, I think what will,
- 53:56let's get rid of A-B-C, right?
- 53:58And let's say experienced leaders will recruit better
- 54:02than inexperienced leaders.
- 54:04So regardless of whether you're an A-B-C grader,
- 54:06whatever it's like recruiting is a skill.
- 54:07Leading and managing is a skill.
- 54:09And if you're good at those things,
- 54:09you'll probably recruit better people.
- 54:10If you're not good at those things,
- 54:11you probably won't recruit good people.
- 54:14But then I would also go so far as to say,
- 54:15it's like even if you're a good leader, manager, A-grade,
- 54:18or whatever it may be,
- 54:20if the organization is not incredibly clear on the culture,
- 54:23how do you recruit good people in general any level?
- 54:28And just to be clear,
- 54:28there's a thank you see in small to medium sized businesses
- 54:31because they're not, they haven't like codified,
- 54:35you know, they're like organization of culture.
- 54:37So they're really good at recruit people,
- 54:38anyone's a match, right?
- 54:39And it's kind of like young people on the dating scene.
- 54:41It's like early when you go to date, different people,
- 54:43you go to kind of what, how do I want to live my life?
- 54:46I'm like, who do I get along with?
- 54:47Well, you kind of got to go through that process, right?
- 54:48But the issue is that founders and the good founder entrepreneurs,
- 54:52they'll sit in hundreds of interviews,
- 54:54they'll recruit lots of people,
- 54:55they'll set the other,
- 54:56and they'll fail with that a lot.
- 54:57But then they expect that they can recruit a junior person,
- 54:59train them up on that person
- 55:00who's never recruited the person in their life.
- 55:02Is going to be a good job at recruiting the next person.
- 55:05I was just listening to an interview with Brian Jasky
- 55:08and he says he still focuses all of his energy
- 55:11and time on recruitment.
- 55:12And I think he made a point and he said,
- 55:15if there's a person, he's talking to a C-suite.
- 55:19He says, if there's a person who you feel
- 55:21like you can recruit without my help,
- 55:23they're not good enough.
- 55:25So he sees recruitment as the most important.
- 55:28It's a little bit like, it's a bit like product, though.
- 55:31Like I know, there's a lot of this all the time.
- 55:33I found I was like, oh yeah, yeah.
- 55:35It's been so much time working in product.
- 55:36I'm gonna recruit someone to come and take it off my hands.
- 55:38I'm like, why the hell do you think the business is successful?
- 55:41Like you see and understand things in this particular arena
- 55:44that other people don't and what you think you can employ
- 55:46a person, there's these sorts of ideas
- 55:49that just make no sense here when you shine a light on it.
- 55:51But there's like ideologies that a lot of people want
- 55:53to run their business behind it again.
- 55:55As a founder, you can't do everything.
- 55:57No, that will try.
- 55:58Yeah, that's an impossibility.
- 56:00But I think the people thing is a really, really big deal.
- 56:04And one that's very often misunderstood a lot of the time
- 56:06employees will fail in inverted commas
- 56:09and then they get you know, terminated and managed out.
- 56:10I'm like, well, if you did like an analysis
- 56:13of that like a post-exit analysis,
- 56:15do you think that person was right to begin with?
- 56:17So if you get all the way back to like,
- 56:19when you recruit at them, were they a good choice then
- 56:20and maybe they were.
- 56:21Then the next question is, well,
- 56:22were they on boarded and actually like set up
- 56:24to succeed, you know, well at the very beginning.
- 56:27And then if not, it's like, well, are we surprised?
- 56:29Seven, eight, nine months later,
- 56:30that they've been terminated or we've,
- 56:32all they've exited, is that a surprise?
- 56:34And a lot of the time, not all the time,
- 56:35but the majority of the time people go, oh yeah, look,
- 56:38I mean, I probably shouldn't have recruited them
- 56:40and they weren't the right person.
- 56:41Oh, they go, oh, you know, well,
- 56:42I really didn't actually like manage them well.
- 56:45No, because we get so excited after we find the right person
- 56:48and then because at least something that I'm aware
- 56:52of for myself, I can't speak for everybody.
- 56:54But sometimes I get so excited hiring somebody
- 56:56because they're so competent.
- 56:57And I'm like, oh, they're hired, they're competent,
- 56:59great, go do your thing, I don't want to micromanage.
- 57:02You don't hire a great person, a micromanage,
- 57:04but there's a difference between micromanaging
- 57:06and being overbearing versus onboarding them properly.
- 57:11Totally.
- 57:11And also too, I think like micromanage is a broad term.
- 57:16So like for me, I'm like, I am fanatical about detail.
- 57:20Like unfairly in lots of scenarios,
- 57:23having most good sounders out to be honest.
- 57:25Well, yeah, but this is what I was about to say.
- 57:26I was like, but there's certain areas,
- 57:28well, you have to be.
- 57:29Well, and so yes, you might not want to be overbearing
- 57:31for like a management, you have a perspective
- 57:32and be literally peeping over the shoulder
- 57:36at this screen for eight hours a day.
- 57:37But I think you're like, whether you're on product stuff,
- 57:40customer stuff, brand positioning stuff,
- 57:42whatever it may be, is there certain things
- 57:43that's like, you can't really get worried
- 57:44about upsetting people with detail and micromanagement.
- 57:47Like if you want to win, you put a win.
- 57:48And like when you look at a lot of the society
- 57:52would call a lot of the best founders,
- 57:54like what do you reckon, like Elon Musk
- 57:55is like, arm zinc from the detail?
- 57:56No, the dude's literally on the production floor.
- 57:58Like Steve Jobs, same thing, Bill Gates,
- 58:01not as publicized, same thing, Jeff Bezos,
- 58:03not same thing.
- 58:04And this is why I actually think they get a bad rap
- 58:06because they are so into, like Elon will learn everything
- 58:09about things that he knows nothing about
- 58:11just so we can have an educated conversation
- 58:13with the person who's responsible.
- 58:14Which again, and maybe not everyone is blessed
- 58:17with the intellectual faculty that he has,
- 58:19but I think in a general sense,
- 58:20for most of what small to medium sized businesses do,
- 58:23and which is respectfully nowhere near
- 58:24is complicated as building rockets and sending it to space.
- 58:27But for most of what small to medium sized businesses are doing,
- 58:30I think people can learn all of that.
- 58:33And at least learn enough to have a reasonable conversation,
- 58:36you know, performance marketing, branding, content,
- 58:39some basic finance stuff.
- 58:41Like I think that's all the majority of the population
- 58:44can at least understand the fundamentals of that
- 58:45enough to have a conversation with the people
- 58:47that they work with.
- 58:48And I think if not respectfully,
- 58:50you potentially being a little bit lazy.
- 58:52I agree with that.
- 58:53I think that all the business, like to get my side
- 58:57of the business is the sales marketing
- 58:58a little bit of product less technical,
- 59:00even though I was running companies that were technical,
- 59:03so I have to understand a bit of it.
- 59:05But from my experience personal and with like the people
- 59:10that were my peers on the sales and marketing side,
- 59:14the companies that were successful were led by founders
- 59:18who learned all these skills at least
- 59:19a rudimentary level, especially sales, which is very important.
- 59:24All the companies that I ever saw being successful
- 59:26were founder companies, like founder of the companies,
- 59:28and the founders started off selling the product.
- 59:31They understood how to develop demand,
- 59:34build a pipeline, close a deal,
- 59:36and then they took that, and then they hired,
- 59:39once they had too much demand,
- 59:40and they couldn't jump on the calls
- 59:41or speak to all the customers,
- 59:43then they hired somebody to help with that part
- 59:45of the business, but what they didn't do was say,
- 59:47I'm a technical founder, I'm a product founder,
- 59:49I don't know nothing about sales,
- 59:50let me go hire a VP of sales, and then just figure it out.
- 59:54But entrepreneurship is kind of,
- 59:56in one way, shape of form is really this idea
- 59:59of ultimate accountability,
- 1:00:01and if you're just just to make it reductive,
- 1:00:03if you're a solo founder, even more so,
- 1:00:06because a lot of the time,
- 1:00:08you'll have a product or tech guy
- 1:00:09and a marketing, a sales guy, and then they'll be friends,
- 1:00:12or you have an operator and a product person,
- 1:00:13whatever, there's a few different combinations there,
- 1:00:15but if you are a solo founder,
- 1:00:17you kind of got to understand a little bit about all of it.
- 1:00:20And also too, I would argue that not even just getting
- 1:00:24to a point where like, okay, called checkbox,
- 1:00:26like I understand this thing, that's fine,
- 1:00:28but you still need to have some persistent degree
- 1:00:32of curiosity about all areas of the business over time,
- 1:00:34and also argue too, as a point before,
- 1:00:36like we get excited to recruit a person,
- 1:00:38if you become not at all curious about an area of the business,
- 1:00:41because you recruited someone to manage it,
- 1:00:43no matter how good that person is,
- 1:00:45one way or another, they're gonna end up off-pieceed,
- 1:00:47because you're not in the detail enough
- 1:00:49to maintain alignment, and I think it's like
- 1:00:52maintaining alignment thing is huge too,
- 1:00:54so you can get really good people,
- 1:00:56do a smart hard work and all that sort of stuff,
- 1:00:57but if you haven't been like really clear
- 1:00:59about where you're going and why,
- 1:01:00then you end up, everyone ends up running
- 1:01:02off in slightly different directions, right?
- 1:01:04I want to speak about some of the mental models
- 1:01:08that have been most useful to you,
- 1:01:11and I think this will be a great way to just like,
- 1:01:13close it out with some strong ways to think.
- 1:01:17So are there certain ones in particular?
- 1:01:18Frameworks, I mean, whether or not you want it to be
- 1:01:21like first principles thinking,
- 1:01:23like you pick the ones that have been the most useful
- 1:01:25to you on your journey,
- 1:01:27because I think the goal of this podcast,
- 1:01:29you've gone into a few different things,
- 1:01:30but ultimately I want to leave people with
- 1:01:32how do they actually think through problems,
- 1:01:34because that will probably be much more beneficial
- 1:01:36and useful to them.
- 1:01:37No, no, totally, you know, look,
- 1:01:39there's an unlimited amount of things here.
- 1:01:41The ones for me that I find myself using the most often,
- 1:01:45so this idea of like inversion,
- 1:01:46like the inversion principle,
- 1:01:47Eric and I would use that five plus times a day easily,
- 1:01:51and when I'm referring to that,
- 1:01:53I mean, something on the lines of gel a lot of the time
- 1:01:56in teams, we'll talk about like,
- 1:01:57hey, is this the right decision?
- 1:01:59Right, and we'll go, okay, well, yes, I think it is.
- 1:02:00Okay, why is that the right decision?
- 1:02:02I think it's the right decision because of these things.
- 1:02:04And it's all about, well, I think this is right,
- 1:02:07so I'll convince you it's right, right?
- 1:02:09Which leaves you then incredibly vulnerable
- 1:02:11to, well, how could it go wrong?
- 1:02:13Right?
- 1:02:14And so a lot of the time I will invert,
- 1:02:16you know, those conversations as someone goes,
- 1:02:17hey, this is the right thing,
- 1:02:18and I'm like, well, what would need to be true
- 1:02:20if this was definitely wrong?
- 1:02:21Right?
- 1:02:22And so I will reverse reason.
- 1:02:23Yeah, with a lot of these topics,
- 1:02:24because I think, again,
- 1:02:26came back to the point before,
- 1:02:27and failure makes everything really clear.
- 1:02:29I think if you position this decision immediately
- 1:02:31into failure and then try to like solve back from it,
- 1:02:33that makes things a lot easier
- 1:02:35from a problem solving perspective.
- 1:02:37So I think that's one thing.
- 1:02:39I think the second thing like along that line too
- 1:02:41is there's this idea that a lot of people make
- 1:02:45like decisions agnostic of commercial logic and reasons.
- 1:02:49There's like, oh, is this campaign a good idea?
- 1:02:51You know, is this brand activation and good idea?
- 1:02:54And we go, yeah, this is a cool idea.
- 1:02:55It'll be great.
- 1:02:56I'm like, okay, but what are we getting from this?
- 1:02:58And so I refer to this as like the car principle,
- 1:03:00the car framework, which is really basic.
- 1:03:01It's just the cost, the assumptions and the return.
- 1:03:04Right?
- 1:03:05I like that aspect.
- 1:03:06Yeah.
- 1:03:07It's something I came with, I think I came up with it.
- 1:03:08I don't know, but like a long time ago,
- 1:03:10and so I will very often say to people that I work
- 1:03:11or they present me a great idea.
- 1:03:12I'm like, okay, well, convince me like,
- 1:03:14what's this going to cost?
- 1:03:15What are you assuming is going to happen?
- 1:03:17And then base of that,
- 1:03:18like what's actually going to be the return on the other side
- 1:03:20and coming back to a point that we were talking about
- 1:03:21earlier around judgment.
- 1:03:24My job or a manager's job or an executive's job
- 1:03:26is then to look at that kind of car proposition,
- 1:03:29if you will, from your particular employee
- 1:03:30and go, okay, well, three really basic questions.
- 1:03:33Like, one, do I think that those costs are reasonable
- 1:03:35and right?
- 1:03:36Yes or no?
- 1:03:38Two, do I think the assumptions they've put
- 1:03:40are reasonable and right?
- 1:03:41Yes or no?
- 1:03:42And three, base of the assumption the cost,
- 1:03:43do I actually think that this return is likely to generate?
- 1:03:46So it's a really simple, like, reductive way,
- 1:03:48both for really junior, like, young employees
- 1:03:51right at the beginning of their career,
- 1:03:52all the way up to executives,
- 1:03:53you can have varying degrees of sophistication
- 1:03:55of how you present it, but at a conceptual level.
- 1:03:57To me, that's probably one of the best models
- 1:04:00to get teams to adopt,
- 1:04:02because what's the issue with a lot of junior employees?
- 1:04:04Everyone goes, oh, they have no commercial argument
- 1:04:06and blah, blah, blah.
- 1:04:07I'm like, how do you think they get that?
- 1:04:09Like, teach them.
- 1:04:10You know, so for me, this is really good.
- 1:04:13And I think these two things in combination.
- 1:04:14So, you know, I'll get people to,
- 1:04:17we use this framework or the one three, one framework.
- 1:04:19You know, show me the idea that you've got,
- 1:04:21give me three different solutions
- 1:04:22or like, you know, potential outcomes here
- 1:04:24and then recommend one to me.
- 1:04:25But when you're recommending it to me,
- 1:04:26recommend it to me showing the cost,
- 1:04:27the assumptions that return.
- 1:04:29And then when you come to me,
- 1:04:30I'll try to prove to you that you're wrong,
- 1:04:31which is inversion.
- 1:04:32And so this creates culturally,
- 1:04:34it's a really good idea, but pragmatically,
- 1:04:36it creates a decision making environment
- 1:04:38that's effectively based on, well, I explored model options.
- 1:04:41I think I found the best one.
- 1:04:42The best one is based off of these cost assumptions of returns.
- 1:04:45Now, your job is to try to convince me it's wrong.
- 1:04:47And if we can't say that one of the other three options
- 1:04:50is better and we can't convince you
- 1:04:51that the cost assumptions of returns are silly,
- 1:04:53well, then we should just do this thing.
- 1:04:55Right.
- 1:04:56And so it makes this decision making velocity feedback loop
- 1:04:58and your education piece like ingrained
- 1:05:00to the way a company operates.
- 1:05:02As opposed to, I'm big dog, I want this option.
- 1:05:06You're no one really learns from that.
- 1:05:08And also too, then when it fails,
- 1:05:09I go, oh, well, you gave me a shitty recommendation.
- 1:05:11So it ends up being culturally bad.
- 1:05:12But if you, I think you do things this way,
- 1:05:14with inversion, one, three, one, and you're the car principles,
- 1:05:17the decision making becomes very rigorous
- 1:05:19and it's incredibly valuable for employees
- 1:05:21from an educational standpoint.
- 1:05:22It also removes emotion.
- 1:05:24So yeah, yeah, sorry, yeah.
- 1:05:25I mean, I'd start from a position of no motion, but yeah.
- 1:05:27No, I think, you know, I didn't mean to,
- 1:05:30yeah, I didn't mean to say that you've left that part out.
- 1:05:31I think that it's just an important piece of it
- 1:05:33because I think that how every time you speak
- 1:05:35about a principle I'm thinking about,
- 1:05:36okay, so why don't people use this already
- 1:05:39because a lot of what you teach
- 1:05:40is very logical and pragmatic,
- 1:05:42which is hard for all the people, right?
- 1:05:43Like, as in, it's easy and this comes back
- 1:05:45to the point before around your knowledge and skill.
- 1:05:47I can say this here is this knowledge, right?
- 1:05:51And you can even take that away
- 1:05:52and put it in a document and then give it to an employee, right?
- 1:05:54But there is skill to using the knowledge,
- 1:05:57you know, to then actually make your decisions
- 1:05:59and the skill normally gets becomes redundant
- 1:06:03because of bias and emotion, right?
- 1:06:06And yeah, it's always been a fascinating thing to me.
- 1:06:08I mean, I am the way I am and, you know, that is me.
- 1:06:12But that sort of stuff from a decision-making point of view
- 1:06:15was never really like a huge meaningful blocker to me.
- 1:06:18Awareness was a big blocker,
- 1:06:19but the emotional stuff not so much.
- 1:06:21But yeah, with a lot of people I've worked with,
- 1:06:22it's a really good point you raised
- 1:06:25that sometimes they find it hard to be objective
- 1:06:28or at least as objective as, you know,
- 1:06:29we ever think we're back.
- 1:06:30I noticed it this morning.
- 1:06:31I pointed something out and somebody took offense to it
- 1:06:33because there was a personal skill that they had built
- 1:06:35and I said that the execution of said skill
- 1:06:38was not entirely appropriate
- 1:06:40for what we were trying to accomplish for a client.
- 1:06:42And for me, it was such a, it was,
- 1:06:46it was, there was such an obvious error.
- 1:06:49And but I realized that the error
- 1:06:52and the communication of me pointing out the error,
- 1:06:55it was like a video edit that we did.
- 1:06:56We screwed something up.
- 1:06:58And I realized it by pointing out the error,
- 1:07:02the person, the editor didn't see the error.
- 1:07:05They saw me questioning their skill set.
- 1:07:07Yeah, which is within emotion.
- 1:07:10Yeah, which is fascinating, right?
- 1:07:11And I actually have found that normally
- 1:07:14the really skilled experience people, not always,
- 1:07:16but normally the people who are really skilled
- 1:07:18in the experience, they can often actually take to feedback
- 1:07:22more emotionally than someone who's a beginner.
- 1:07:24Because the beginner, if the, you know,
- 1:07:27a self-aware that they're a beginner,
- 1:07:28you know, they normally go, okay, well, I'm a beginner.
- 1:07:30You're not a beginner, thanks for the feedback.
- 1:07:33Right, whereas if someone who's like super experienced,
- 1:07:35you say, I'll go away and do this thing.
- 1:07:36And you go, oh, actually, yeah, no, that's wrong.
- 1:07:37And they're like, oh, well, it's not actually.
- 1:07:39You know, and all you have, you have like emotional,
- 1:07:42you know, responses, which to be clear,
- 1:07:44I'd argue that, and I've always argued this,
- 1:07:46business is actually relatively straightforward,
- 1:07:48simple, mathematic, in most cases, not all.
- 1:07:51Yeah, brand product, there's this,
- 1:07:53some kind of nuance and qualitative stuff.
- 1:07:55But this thing that makes it really complicated,
- 1:07:58there's actually people, both inside the business
- 1:08:00and outside the business, and just to be clear,
- 1:08:02when I said that, I'm not talking about the customers,
- 1:08:04because that's a skill set to work with that.
- 1:08:06But like, I think internally, you're getting
- 1:08:0910, 50, 150 people of different personalities,
- 1:08:11backgrounds, values, and beliefs to align, you know,
- 1:08:14on a goal, work on that respectfully, you know,
- 1:08:17provide feedback and receive it, you know,
- 1:08:19with best intent, you know, these sorts of ideas,
- 1:08:21they're actually really bloody hard.
- 1:08:23What would be one mental model
- 1:08:25that you are currently applying to yourself,
- 1:08:26not your business at this age in your life?
- 1:08:29So something I touched on before in a few different ways
- 1:08:33was this idea that, you know, of like a frailty
- 1:08:37or fragility, like of the situation that you're in.
- 1:08:39And I think one of the things that I try to reflect on
- 1:08:43all the time is that the better I get, you know,
- 1:08:47however you receive that, so knowledge, skills,
- 1:08:49result, sort of, maybe the better that I get,
- 1:08:51I have to match that with an increase in humility.
- 1:08:55Because the more you learn about things,
- 1:08:58it's really easy to fall into this thing of like,
- 1:09:01I know now, and I'm experienced, right?
- 1:09:03And so I've often tried to sit with this, like,
- 1:09:06concept and idea of like, you know,
- 1:09:07be like a perpetual learner, but a perpetual beginner,
- 1:09:10you more specifically.
- 1:09:12And that's saying that I've gone through
- 1:09:14sort of multiple different ways with my co-like,
- 1:09:15I really understand this topic now,
- 1:09:17but I'm like, but I don't want to think that and feel that
- 1:09:18because it makes me blind to the obvious stuff.
- 1:09:23And when you're early on at something,
- 1:09:25the stupid shit is obvious to you
- 1:09:26because you're learning like,
- 1:09:27what the hell do we do that and people go,
- 1:09:28oh, yeah, actually, I never ever want to lose that.
- 1:09:32And so yeah, for me, I'm spending a lot of conscious time
- 1:09:35and effort trying to bring myself back to like,
- 1:09:36yeah, always try to be a beginner.
- 1:09:38First of all, working people connect with you.
- 1:09:39Yeah, I'm following you online,
- 1:09:40LinkedIn and Instagram.
- 1:09:42Love to kind of connect with anyone that,
- 1:09:44yeah, he's a kind of chat business.
- 1:09:45So I just love this stuff, man.
- 1:09:47So no, I appreciate you.
- 1:09:48You were fun to chat with them.
- 1:09:49What's next for you?
- 1:09:51What do you want to work on?
- 1:09:52Is it just building another 17 businesses or?
- 1:09:56No, yeah, look, I've learned heaps from that.
- 1:09:59But no, I think for me now,
- 1:10:01I'm in the transitional phase of my career
- 1:10:04from being a founder operator to an operator investor.
- 1:10:10And so I'm operating a few businesses at the moment,
- 1:10:13but I'm also investing in a whole lot.
- 1:10:15And I would have thought that,
- 1:10:16you know, over the next five or 10 years,
- 1:10:17if I'm kind of reasonable of that,
- 1:10:18I probably end up being almost exclusively an investor
- 1:10:21is where I would like to end up.
- 1:10:24Wildly different skill set.
- 1:10:25Honestly, yeah, talk about going back to being a beginner.
- 1:10:29You make a bit of money from an accident.
- 1:10:30You're like, oh, cool, I'll invest that whole hold on.
- 1:10:32What the hell is this?
- 1:10:33Yeah, and it's like it's a completely different world,
- 1:10:35but it's what I'm really passionate about.
- 1:10:37And I hope that bringing the founder operator aspect
- 1:10:40gives me some sort of advantage at that.
- 1:10:42Other to people who are just professional investors, basically.
- 1:10:45I will hope that when you figure out that craft,
- 1:10:48you can come back and do another episode.
- 1:10:49Yeah, we'll be back here.
- 1:10:51I appreciate you so much.
- 1:10:52Last thing I like to end with,
- 1:10:53if you go back and tell your 20 year old self
- 1:10:55the most important piece of advice you've learned,
- 1:10:56why would that be?
- 1:10:57Yeah, honestly, care less about what other people think.
- 1:11:01Yeah, I think especially in my early 20s,
- 1:11:04I was so convinced that I didn't care what other people thought.
- 1:11:08Yeah, and then by my mid to late 20s, I was like,
- 1:11:10oh, shit, actually, no, I really care what people think.
- 1:11:13And then you get to my 30s and I'm like,
- 1:11:14okay, I'm starting to get a hold of what I care,
- 1:11:17you know, about other people's thoughts
- 1:11:18and how I separate my own self-assessment,
- 1:11:21you know, relative to that.
- 1:11:23But yeah, I think like, you know, to me,
- 1:11:26I think I would have done lots of other stuff faster
- 1:11:29and I think would have done lots of other stuff better.
- 1:11:31Yeah, if I was actually just focused on that stuff,
- 1:11:33you're not focused on how other people might, you know,
- 1:11:35consider all or look at that.
- 1:11:36And again, you're different in every country
- 1:11:39for every person, every life.
- 1:11:40But for me, I definitely feel like that's saying
- 1:11:41they're like, help me back from a lot of decisions,
- 1:11:43not from making the decisions,
- 1:11:45but from making them quickly.
- 1:11:46You know, I think speed is the game of entrepreneurship.