Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Week 8 NFL Lines with Bookmaker Scooch and Chad Millman

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Week 8 NFL Lines with Bookmaker Scooch and Chad Millman · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites Podcast. I am Shad Milman of
0:14
Speaker 1: the Action Network. It is Wednesday, which means my favorite guests.
0:20
Speaker 1: Not to denigrate black Jack Fletcher, who joins me on Friday,
0:25
Speaker 1: or Jeff Schwartz and Paula Duca who joined me on Monday,
0:29
Speaker 1: but I think we all know that Wednesdays are the
0:31
Speaker 1: anchor day of the Favorite podcast, and that is because
0:36
Speaker 1: we bring in Mr Bob Scoochy from New Orleans and
0:41
Speaker 1: all the boyd gaming books in the state of Nevada.
1:02
Speaker 1: Oh boy, Chad, how are you? You cannot live up
1:06
Speaker 1: to that music? It Actually, I feel like it got
1:08
Speaker 1: bigger this week. It did. It's getting more. It's getting louder.
1:13
Speaker 1: It's getting louder and more dramatic. I feel like it's
1:16
Speaker 1: appropriate for the day. You know why, because we have
1:19
Speaker 1: something going on in the NFL that never happens and
1:22
Speaker 1: something that I think could help the NFL quite a
1:23
Speaker 1: bit become more popular because you know, it's not really
1:26
Speaker 1: a big deal. Um trades. Yeah, Amari Cooper traded from
1:35
Speaker 1: the Oakland Raiders to the Dallas Cowboys. Eli Apple just
1:39
Speaker 1: breaking from Adam Schefter traded from the New York Giants
1:45
Speaker 1: to the New Orleans Saints. Eli Apple was not loved
1:48
Speaker 1: in the New York Giants locker room traded. Are you there,
1:57
Speaker 1: I'm here. That's big. I know that the Saints are
2:00
Speaker 1: going to get real aggressive before the deadline, and we
2:04
Speaker 1: I think we talked a little bit about them before
2:06
Speaker 1: we came on the air. So interesting team. You and
2:09
Speaker 1: I may have some difference of opinions on them, but uh,
2:14
Speaker 1: it's why do you say? Why do you say you
2:17
Speaker 1: know they're going to get aggressive? What do you what
2:19
Speaker 1: do you like tapped in? You've got a source, We
2:24
Speaker 1: got sources? Yeah, exactly, what do you know? What do
2:26
Speaker 1: you know? No, they're making they're making plays for certain
2:33
Speaker 1: personnel that are unhappy with their current teams. And uh,
2:37
Speaker 1: and they're one of the you know from just from
2:40
Speaker 1: what we've heard, them and the Eagles are both trying
2:42
Speaker 1: to get some of the same personnel. Dude, Seriously, you
2:47
Speaker 1: are being so kg right now. It's like either you
2:51
Speaker 1: either are you connected like the league in some way,
2:57
Speaker 1: or are you like reciting what you've read on the
3:02
Speaker 1: Twitter combination just some context that we have. Oh my god,
3:08
Speaker 1: you are such a dick. I can't what is going on? Here?
3:13
Speaker 1: Are you not only like bookmaker to the world, but
3:15
Speaker 1: you're also like Adam Schefter's chief source. And when he
3:19
Speaker 1: needs to break a story, he's like, I can't confirm
3:23
Speaker 1: this until I call Scooch exactly. Yeah, no, I'm not.
3:27
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna tell you. Do you
3:29
Speaker 1: know you watch? No, I don't. I do know stuff.
3:33
Speaker 1: But just by the way, I do know stuff. I
3:36
Speaker 1: bet you're just not about this. I know stuff. Your
3:41
Speaker 1: face no stuff. Oh, here we go, here's another one
3:50
Speaker 1: you no. No, by the way, my my introduction, it's
3:53
Speaker 1: more than just the sports books in the state of Nevada.
3:56
Speaker 1: We gotta we gotta correct you now because that now
3:58
Speaker 1: that we're kind of movie moving into new states and
4:03
Speaker 1: new jurisdictions, it's uh, all the BOYD gaming books around
4:08
Speaker 1: the country, around the country. You you, slowly but surely
4:14
Speaker 1: are becoming bookmaker to the country. Slowly, we're trying to
4:18
Speaker 1: get there. If you're not bookmaker to the world by
4:21
Speaker 1: the time we're done with this podcast, then you and
4:24
Speaker 1: I have both done something wrong. Exactly. So last week
4:29
Speaker 1: we talked about how my kids just like to trash
4:34
Speaker 1: talk me when I'm doing anything, um, even if I'm
4:37
Speaker 1: trying to do something nice for them. Let me tell
4:40
Speaker 1: you this, jem. So, this past weekend, my wife and
4:44
Speaker 1: I went away to Park City, Utah with friends from
4:48
Speaker 1: high school and other wives. So I posted, uh, you know,
4:51
Speaker 1: an Instagram story. I go on Instagram, I post a
4:53
Speaker 1: story and uh, my younger son direct messages on Instagram
5:01
Speaker 1: and it says with one of the posts, it says,
5:05
Speaker 1: I feel bad for your imagination, Jeezy, I wrote him back.
5:13
Speaker 1: I wrote him back, I go, I feel bad for
5:15
Speaker 1: your reality that. I wrote back, I feel bad for
5:22
Speaker 1: your reality burn. Yeah, that wasn't a great comeback. I
5:29
Speaker 1: think it wasn't. And he wrote back to me, he
5:31
Speaker 1: knows that my best friend's name is Matt, and he
5:34
Speaker 1: spent a lot of time with Matt. And uh, he
5:37
Speaker 1: wrote back to me, he goes, how long did it
5:39
Speaker 1: take you and Matt to think of that one? He's quick,
5:45
Speaker 1: he's eleven, he's got that Chad Millman, sharp wit? Doesn't
5:52
Speaker 1: he raising an asshole? I guess is that what you're
5:56
Speaker 1: saying about me? I was trying to be delicate about it,
6:00
Speaker 1: sharp Wit. Yeah, excuse last week was not pretty for me.
6:05
Speaker 1: It wasn't pretty for us. Either tell me about what
6:07
Speaker 1: you Oh, these scores were horrendous. If it wasn't for
6:12
Speaker 1: the Browns uh losing by only three instead of more,
6:16
Speaker 1: it would have been one of the worst days in
6:18
Speaker 1: many years. UM. All the favorites that we did not need,
6:23
Speaker 1: mostly in Parley's. It was the general public. It wasn't
6:25
Speaker 1: necessarily the professional betters that that roughed us up. I
6:29
Speaker 1: mean it started Thursday with the Broncos and we talked
6:32
Speaker 1: about them, even though the line moved after our podcast. Uh,
6:35
Speaker 1: you know, I was I had gone to three on
6:38
Speaker 1: the Broncos, I think right during the podcast because of
6:41
Speaker 1: just all the public money on on Denver and it
6:44
Speaker 1: just looked too short. And then the wise guys came
6:47
Speaker 1: in on Arizona. But that that kind of started the
6:50
Speaker 1: whole avalanche of things to come. New England and UH
6:53
Speaker 1: short road favorites against the Bears was a horrible, horrible
6:56
Speaker 1: game for US. UH. Indianapolis against Buffalo was bad, Detroit
7:01
Speaker 1: Miami was bad. All the favorites, Minnesota against the Jets,
7:05
Speaker 1: A lot of those home dogs that we said we're
7:08
Speaker 1: covering throughout most of the season so far, I saw
7:10
Speaker 1: a little bit of a correction as a lot of
7:12
Speaker 1: the road favorites were covering. So uh uh, Like I said,
7:17
Speaker 1: Tampa only winning by three and overtime was that was
7:19
Speaker 1: huge for us because uh that extra half a point
7:23
Speaker 1: that Tampa was laying would would have kind of been
7:26
Speaker 1: a dagger. And then the night game, I mean, the
7:28
Speaker 1: biggest game of the board was Kansas City and the Bengals,
7:31
Speaker 1: and we were never really in that game with the Bengals,
7:33
Speaker 1: so that just kind of capped things off. Uh So,
7:36
Speaker 1: so worst weekend by far of the year could have
7:39
Speaker 1: been a lot worse. And boy, that Monday night game,
7:43
Speaker 1: we needed the Giants for our lungs. And you talk
7:46
Speaker 1: about uh semi meaningless played to the casual observer, a
7:52
Speaker 1: touchdown and a two point conversion at the end of
7:55
Speaker 1: the game two uh to move the game from a
7:59
Speaker 1: five point spread to three point victor margin of victory.
8:03
Speaker 1: That was the difference of a lot of money around town.
8:07
Speaker 1: How much? What did the game close at? Uh? Well,
8:13
Speaker 1: it had opened as high as five and a half
8:16
Speaker 1: and six, and then the wise guys drove this line
8:18
Speaker 1: down early in the week, the three and a half
8:20
Speaker 1: at one point, and but then the public just drove
8:24
Speaker 1: Atlanta right back up to four and a half and
8:26
Speaker 1: five by game time. That's why five would have been
8:29
Speaker 1: the absolute worst number, uh two, because we would have
8:33
Speaker 1: gotten middled on so many levels. And uh yeah, yeah
8:43
Speaker 1: it was. It was teetering. I just kind of had
8:46
Speaker 1: to cover my eyes watching that last play. It's almost
8:50
Speaker 1: like we're a literary podcast. How many how many betting
8:53
Speaker 1: podcasts can slip in a euphemism alert? Maybe we should
8:58
Speaker 1: get to Nuther for that. Can we get like does
9:01
Speaker 1: like uh Henry Wadsworth longfellow, that's not very literally. I've
9:13
Speaker 1: never heard of porn like that for a longfellow. Yeah,
9:17
Speaker 1: that feels more spitting chicklets than like, you know, the favorites.
9:23
Speaker 1: We need some but some broms, maybe some mozart, you know,
9:29
Speaker 1: something like that. Every time. Again, now we're just pressing buttons,
9:36
Speaker 1: not actually not actually thinking about how to creatively incorporate
9:40
Speaker 1: something thoughtful and beautiful, right, I'm just saying, hey, um, well, listen,
9:49
Speaker 1: you should know that I bet the Cardinals on the
9:53
Speaker 1: money line that didn't go well. I bet the Redskins
9:58
Speaker 1: got lucky on that one. I bet the Ravens boy
10:02
Speaker 1: Justin Tucker middled me, if you know what I'm saying,
10:06
Speaker 1: um euphemism, the middle fingered me, and uh, you know,
10:12
Speaker 1: I bet the Bears plus four. And boy, I'll tell
10:16
Speaker 1: you know. I was with all these Chicago guys all weekend.
10:19
Speaker 1: I sound like a fucking Putts because they were asking
10:22
Speaker 1: me about the Bears and we're talking about betting, and
10:24
Speaker 1: I'm talking about recency bias and how I thought the
10:27
Speaker 1: spread in this game was too high. But you don't
10:29
Speaker 1: make money betting against Bill Belichick. But I had to
10:31
Speaker 1: do it because the line moved from like three to
10:34
Speaker 1: four and Gronk was out and blah blah blah. And boy,
10:40
Speaker 1: if I hadn't have said to some fun somebody's a
10:42
Speaker 1: bunch of guys who went to Michigan, like let's take
10:44
Speaker 1: the under twenty in the first half and let's take
10:46
Speaker 1: under forty one, I would have looked even dumber. Yeah,
10:53
Speaker 1: just sometimes things don't pan out. I mean, I I act.
10:58
Speaker 1: I hate it when the key player is out on
11:01
Speaker 1: a team that they're already betting and we have to
11:03
Speaker 1: move the line downwards. It's just the scariest thing. And
11:07
Speaker 1: when that line went down to as low as one
11:09
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm just like, we can't we we
11:12
Speaker 1: just gotta I went up to back to two and
11:14
Speaker 1: a half when I think everyone in town was at one.
11:17
Speaker 1: Not that it saved us a whole lot. That I
11:19
Speaker 1: can tell my my bosses. You know, we saved some
11:22
Speaker 1: money there, saved a little bit, but it didn't it
11:27
Speaker 1: didn't matter. I that's the worst when you give them
11:30
Speaker 1: a reason to lay an even better number. Given me
11:35
Speaker 1: a million reasons, you're like my lady Gaga thrown in
11:41
Speaker 1: all kinds of references. Now, aren't you a million reads?
11:45
Speaker 1: All right? Should we do this thing to the main event? Yeah?
11:51
Speaker 1: Was there a story this weekend that Deshaun Watson could
11:55
Speaker 1: not fly to Jacksonville because his lungs were so injured.
12:00
Speaker 1: Doctors were afraid of what the air pressure would do,
12:03
Speaker 1: and yet they drove him to Jacksonville to play, and
12:06
Speaker 1: he was able to play in a game in which
12:09
Speaker 1: men who are of the finest athletes in the world
12:13
Speaker 1: at six pounds can chase him and potentially fall on him.
12:19
Speaker 1: What do you think of that he did that and
12:22
Speaker 1: then he dominated? That's incredible. I mean, is it just
12:26
Speaker 1: that that Jacksonville's that bad? What happened there right. I'll
12:31
Speaker 1: tell you who's feeling pretty good. I'll tell you who's
12:33
Speaker 1: feeling pretty good. Someone who's got a literary podcast and
12:37
Speaker 1: has a Houston Texans super Bowl ticket at eighteen to one.
12:41
Speaker 1: Who oh, coming around? Yeah, not bad, long fellow, long season.
12:49
Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying. It's a long It's gonna
12:52
Speaker 1: be a long, long season. It's already it's already into
12:55
Speaker 1: that mode where who it's starting starting to wear me down?
12:59
Speaker 1: It's rough. Dolphins of Texas, Texas seven and a half.
13:03
Speaker 1: I mean, there's not gonna this is probably the worst
13:06
Speaker 1: Thursday night matchup so far this season. Um. I mean
13:10
Speaker 1: people will still bet it because it's the high profile
13:13
Speaker 1: only game of the night. Um, but not a whole
13:17
Speaker 1: lot of reasons to to bet the Dolphins. I think
13:19
Speaker 1: you said it last week when uh Dolphins beat the Bears,
13:23
Speaker 1: that was kind of their high water mark and uh
13:27
Speaker 1: not not not going to equal that performance against some
13:30
Speaker 1: of these other teams, and didn't look so good against
13:33
Speaker 1: the Lions. Uh, there are seven and a half point
13:36
Speaker 1: underdog against the Texans. We're gonna see a lot of
13:39
Speaker 1: Texans money, not a whole lot of sharp money on
13:42
Speaker 1: the Dolphins yet. But I think most of these games,
13:44
Speaker 1: as we get into a lot of them, these are
13:46
Speaker 1: some of the biggest point spreads, uh, that we've seen
13:48
Speaker 1: so far in the NFL this season for just one
13:51
Speaker 1: week with so many, you know, more than a touchdown favorites,
13:55
Speaker 1: and uh, I think we're we're especially coming off a
13:59
Speaker 1: week we're a lot of the favorites covered. We're going
14:02
Speaker 1: to be in that kind of mode where we want
14:04
Speaker 1: to set the lines as high as possible to see
14:06
Speaker 1: where the professionals take take it back, how high can
14:10
Speaker 1: we go on some of these favorites before they get
14:13
Speaker 1: involved and take the underdog. So we're kind of creeping
14:17
Speaker 1: up on a lot of these lines and you'll see
14:19
Speaker 1: them get get bigger and bigger throughout late in the week.
14:23
Speaker 1: So if you if you want to bet some of
14:25
Speaker 1: these underdogs, you want to take them late. That's good
14:29
Speaker 1: to know. The late move is the correct move. Somebody
14:34
Speaker 1: wise once said that it's true. So you think seven
14:38
Speaker 1: and a half might be the beginning of the move
14:42
Speaker 1: on this not the end. Yeah, because you know the
14:46
Speaker 1: sharp guys are gonna they're gonna wait is they're gonna
14:49
Speaker 1: They're like they're gonna wait. They're gonna wait till the
14:52
Speaker 1: end of the week. All right, Well, this game's Thursday night,
14:55
Speaker 1: so they don't have that much longer. Um, it's hard,
15:02
Speaker 1: I think. I like the Texans. It's tough to lay
15:06
Speaker 1: that many points. It really is, though, But I just
15:08
Speaker 1: think goes against all your principles. It does. But you know, yeah, yeah,
15:16
Speaker 1: all right, we don't have an opinion yet. We can't.
15:19
Speaker 1: We can't formulate an opinion. Eagles at Jaguars? Is this
15:24
Speaker 1: game being played in London? Another one in London? Yeah,
15:27
Speaker 1: we start for this one. If the lovely and talented
15:30
Speaker 1: Georgina were on this podcast, I know you don't know
15:32
Speaker 1: who that is because you don't listen to the podcast
15:34
Speaker 1: at all. But Georgina, who, of course uh is reading
15:38
Speaker 1: the lines for me and Blackjack on our Friday podcast,
15:41
Speaker 1: she would have reason to say jag yours because she
15:45
Speaker 1: is British and this game is being played in London. Ah.
15:50
Speaker 1: I like that. Jaguars part of the literary concept and classy.
15:57
Speaker 1: Do we have any Shakespeare theme music? I'd be impressive
16:04
Speaker 1: they pull out some of these chicks sucking yah. Whose
16:05
Speaker 1: named Matt who just keeps you know two hipsters with
16:08
Speaker 1: beards like half beards, looking at each other like, do
16:11
Speaker 1: we have any do we have any Shakespeare music? I
16:14
Speaker 1: don't know, do we They're like, here's Shakespeare. I don't know,
16:18
Speaker 1: there's Shakespeare. Guy just at their god who's he played for? Yeah,
16:28
Speaker 1: that's so funny, all right. The Eagles are favored by
16:31
Speaker 1: three and a half. Um, boy, the wheels are falling
16:36
Speaker 1: off this Jaguars team. Blake Bortles is going to start,
16:39
Speaker 1: but he's on a short leash. The Eagles gave up
16:42
Speaker 1: a seventeen point lead in the fourth quarter. They have
16:46
Speaker 1: not looked right all year. They made the Panthers, who
16:49
Speaker 1: I am not a believer in, look really good. How
16:53
Speaker 1: do you It's like, this is basically it's a neutral
16:56
Speaker 1: field games. You're saying the Eagles are three points better. Um,
17:00
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't even know how to
17:02
Speaker 1: read this game right now. Well, the thing about the
17:05
Speaker 1: Eagles is there essentially they're the same Super Bowl team
17:08
Speaker 1: that that's that's that's on the field, and at some
17:12
Speaker 1: point you expect them to kind of break out into
17:14
Speaker 1: the form that that we saw them last year, and
17:17
Speaker 1: it's just a matter of when we saw it looked
17:19
Speaker 1: like a little bit in the first half against the Panthers,
17:22
Speaker 1: but like you said, they kind of fell apart in
17:23
Speaker 1: the second half. So if you're looking at two teams
17:27
Speaker 1: on who you had to bet in this one, I
17:29
Speaker 1: think more people would be just so much more comfortable
17:31
Speaker 1: bet in the Eagles and laying three three and a
17:34
Speaker 1: half points in this one, because there is absolutely no
17:37
Speaker 1: reason to to bet Jacksonville at this point. They're looking
17:41
Speaker 1: worse and worse each week, uh, starting with that game
17:44
Speaker 1: against Kansas City, and just get progressively getting worse each week.
17:49
Speaker 1: Nothing to get excited about, boardles. I mean, they pulled
17:52
Speaker 1: them so they don't even have a they don't even
17:55
Speaker 1: have a good, top tier starting quarterback anymore. So, UM,
17:59
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna be real aggressive moving this line. Um,
18:02
Speaker 1: we were at three minus twenty. Um, we're gonna go
18:06
Speaker 1: to three and a half right now, right now. I'm
18:13
Speaker 1: fairly certain that's our long fellow music, that's it. So
18:21
Speaker 1: here's the question for you. There's a report someone wrote
18:26
Speaker 1: a story today that the um Jaguars should trade for
18:31
Speaker 1: Eli Manning. Give me odds on Eli Manning being traded
18:36
Speaker 1: at all this year. He's not gonna be traded. There's
18:43
Speaker 1: no way. Yeah, it's off the board favorite to not
18:48
Speaker 1: be traded. It's definitely bad with the Giants. Hey, they
18:54
Speaker 1: got the cover Monday night. It's all the match, not
18:58
Speaker 1: whether you win or lose, it's whether you cover this
19:00
Speaker 1: bread so true. By the skin of there by the
19:02
Speaker 1: by the face mask of their helmets. They got the cover.
19:05
Speaker 1: Um yeah, I love this game. This next game, I
19:09
Speaker 1: freaking love Are you ready? Yeah, Broncos at Chiefs. I know,
19:17
Speaker 1: I so know what side I'm taking here. You almost
19:21
Speaker 1: have to take the Broncos to you have to have to, yes, Um,
19:28
Speaker 1: I mean the we're minus ten minus ten yeah, perfect negative.
19:39
Speaker 1: So so the Broncos have the longer week to prepare,
19:42
Speaker 1: you know, the playing on the Thursday night game last week,
19:46
Speaker 1: so they got a little extra Chiefs have. It's a
19:51
Speaker 1: little bit somewhat of a shorter week after the big
19:53
Speaker 1: Sunday night when, uh, you can't say that you got
19:58
Speaker 1: ripped on the Twitter were saying that the Pats were
20:01
Speaker 1: coming off a shorter week when they played on a
20:03
Speaker 1: Saturday night game, Like shorter week by what four hours?
20:06
Speaker 1: By four can can't say? You can't say it can't
20:10
Speaker 1: be bookmaker to Nevada, you know, and maybe other states.
20:15
Speaker 1: And can I say that the Broncos have a longer
20:18
Speaker 1: time to prepare? Yes? Is that allowable? Yes? Give you that?
20:26
Speaker 1: All right? So so I so I I welcome the
20:30
Speaker 1: Chiefs money in this one. We'll probably get pummeled, but uh,
20:34
Speaker 1: ten points is just a lot of points for I mean,
20:37
Speaker 1: as great as they as they've been playing and and
20:40
Speaker 1: racking up the points. Um, it's just too I mean,
20:44
Speaker 1: double digit underdogs you almost have to take. I mean
20:47
Speaker 1: they're on the road, but you still have to take
20:49
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I feel like that's going to be good
20:51
Speaker 1: for one of the highlights we put out into social media.
20:54
Speaker 1: I welcome the Chief's money. You almost have to take
20:58
Speaker 1: the double digit here, all right. So let's say I
21:03
Speaker 1: was too allegedly bet while we are recording this podcast.
21:06
Speaker 1: Do you think I should wait? Do you think this
21:09
Speaker 1: let is going to go up? No? I think this
21:12
Speaker 1: will come down because the sharp guys will take it.
21:15
Speaker 1: I mean they're gonna they're gonna take this in a
21:20
Speaker 1: couple of other games that we are going to get
21:22
Speaker 1: to that I think there's a lot of value on
21:24
Speaker 1: the underdogs here. We tried to make this. I mean ten,
21:28
Speaker 1: ten is a pretty solid number, um, and it's not
21:32
Speaker 1: one you you really want to kind of get off
21:35
Speaker 1: of going from nine and a half to ten and
21:37
Speaker 1: a half. Of we've already seen a couple of games
21:39
Speaker 1: full ten this year. Um, so I think we're I
21:44
Speaker 1: think we're in good shape with just staying at ten.
21:46
Speaker 1: But I think there's more of a chance of the
21:49
Speaker 1: wise guys taking the ten than laying it. The wise
21:51
Speaker 1: guys never lay ten, So it's just a matter of
21:55
Speaker 1: whether the public will drive this back up, but more
21:58
Speaker 1: chance of it coming down. What do you think of
22:00
Speaker 1: the total fifty? I probably bet every Kansas City game over.
22:08
Speaker 1: I mean we got we got lucky last uh the
22:10
Speaker 1: last game that just should have went over but stayed
22:14
Speaker 1: under by a little bit. And uh, but but yeah,
22:17
Speaker 1: I'd bet all of them over. There's just their explosive
22:21
Speaker 1: offense and and the defense lets up some points, so
22:25
Speaker 1: we're gonna be on the high side there too. We're
22:27
Speaker 1: already at fifty six. I know some places are fifty five,
22:30
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half even, but uh, and then
22:34
Speaker 1: we know which way the public bets on them too,
22:36
Speaker 1: so we gotta be on the high side. Scooch. We're
22:38
Speaker 1: gonna get back to the picks in a second, but
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Speaker 1: That's Favorites dot robin hood Dot Calm Scooch, I know
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Speaker 1: you went in on this. Let's get back to the picks.
23:58
Speaker 1: The next game is interesting to me, the Browns and
24:01
Speaker 1: the Steelers. The Steelers are eight point favorites. Baker Mayfield
24:06
Speaker 1: keeps games close. Absolutely. I think you're gonna get Baker
24:14
Speaker 1: burned in this one. Yeah, I mean the Steelers have been,
24:20
Speaker 1: uh playing a lot better since the beginning of the year.
24:23
Speaker 1: And uh, but the Browns do. I mean they kept
24:27
Speaker 1: they kept it close last week, Like I said, they
24:29
Speaker 1: saved us by that that half a point. But they
24:31
Speaker 1: do keep a lot of the games close. They played
24:34
Speaker 1: the Saints real good this year, and I think we're
24:37
Speaker 1: We've talked about them how good I think the Saints are,
24:40
Speaker 1: and and the Browns can hang tough with some of
24:41
Speaker 1: the best teams in the NFL. So you know, their
24:45
Speaker 1: record doesn't reflect it. But a team with a young
24:48
Speaker 1: quarterback a lot of times they'll um take some time
24:52
Speaker 1: to just keep slowly getting better and better and then
24:54
Speaker 1: learn how to close out those close games and come
24:57
Speaker 1: out on the winning side instead of always been on
24:59
Speaker 1: the losing side. Uh, the right side is the winning side,
25:07
Speaker 1: So so on this one, I mean seven and a
25:09
Speaker 1: half with the points, the right side is always the
25:15
Speaker 1: winning side. Just skip over that. I guess. Yeah, like
25:20
Speaker 1: this like eight points too much? Too much, Scooch, It
25:25
Speaker 1: is too much. It's it's all I mean, this is
25:29
Speaker 1: But remember they played to a tie that opening week.
25:33
Speaker 1: The Browns have been blown out in one game this year, right,
25:35
Speaker 1: the Browns have played four overtime games. They were blown
25:39
Speaker 1: out by the Chargers. Chargers team that yours truly believed
25:43
Speaker 1: was going to blow out the Browns even though they
25:44
Speaker 1: were on the road. Just felt it in my bones. Situationally,
25:47
Speaker 1: it was the right way to go. I remember that. Yeah, yeah,
25:51
Speaker 1: I don't have that feeling this weekend with this Dealers.
25:56
Speaker 1: I mean, if you had to bet, I mean, any
25:58
Speaker 1: anyone that's been betting, if you had to pick a side,
26:01
Speaker 1: you have to take the Browns plus seven and a
26:03
Speaker 1: half in this one. I mean, the ticket count is
26:07
Speaker 1: probably five to one Steelers to Browns. And then coming
26:10
Speaker 1: off of a week where a lot of the favorites covered,
26:12
Speaker 1: I know a lot of these guys are gonna be
26:14
Speaker 1: rolling over their tickets on a lot of these big favorites,
26:17
Speaker 1: but this is one of the ones I feel fairly
26:20
Speaker 1: good about you feel pretty good about the Browns being
26:24
Speaker 1: dogs and needing money and needing the Browns to win. Yeah, okay, yep,
26:32
Speaker 1: and that can be that. Ye And I think we're
26:34
Speaker 1: actually and I think we're actually pretty low in comparison
26:37
Speaker 1: to a lot of places around the country on this
26:39
Speaker 1: point spread. I think seven and a half is probably
26:43
Speaker 1: the lowest you'll see out there. I know there's some
26:45
Speaker 1: eights eight and a halfs, So we do have somewhat
26:48
Speaker 1: of an opinion on this one. I'm not going to
26:49
Speaker 1: be that game. It's gonna pass, huh, I think so. Yep, thanks,
26:56
Speaker 1: So maybe I'll come back to it. Bucks at uh
27:02
Speaker 1: Bengals Bengals and four and a half way favorites. This
27:06
Speaker 1: is this is Oh my god, this is the crantastic
27:10
Speaker 1: Corner TV game. It'll be a low volume game. Nobody's
27:14
Speaker 1: going to bet it because nobody can name ten players
27:18
Speaker 1: on combined on these teams, you don't know what you're getting.
27:23
Speaker 1: The Bengals get blown out on national TV, the Box
27:26
Speaker 1: need a miracle to beat the Browns, and overtime they
27:28
Speaker 1: give up big leads. Funck man. Yeah, anybody bet this game? Yeah?
27:39
Speaker 1: Actually they did, and I'm kind of kicking myself because,
27:43
Speaker 1: uh we we put up six and I just as
27:48
Speaker 1: I was getting ready to move it to five and
27:50
Speaker 1: a half, somebody bet it. They didn't bet it for MutS.
27:54
Speaker 1: They better for the only bet it for ten thousand.
27:56
Speaker 1: But I just felt he beat me by a couple
28:00
Speaker 1: of seconds. I'm going through the games and I'm just
28:03
Speaker 1: I said this too much. You have to take the
28:05
Speaker 1: buccaneers here. So I lowered it to five and a
28:08
Speaker 1: half and he beat me to it, and uh, and
28:12
Speaker 1: then I just went straight to four and a half.
28:15
Speaker 1: Uh off of no money, Well I shouldn't say no money,
28:18
Speaker 1: probably another five thousand. So so really it took ten
28:22
Speaker 1: thousand to move it a point and a half. But uh,
28:27
Speaker 1: I just feel like the public is not gonna really
28:31
Speaker 1: they're not gonna come in on this game very much.
28:33
Speaker 1: So it's going to be strictly a wise guy game.
28:35
Speaker 1: And uh, I just don't have a good feel about it.
28:38
Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna move it quick. You took ten
28:42
Speaker 1: thousand dollars on this game. One bet ten dollars, No,
28:49
Speaker 1: it was one bet five thousand, and then uh, a
28:53
Speaker 1: couple of couple of three and two thousand dollar breads
28:57
Speaker 1: and they were all on which side again, all in
29:00
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. But I'm just mad because I wanted to
29:09
Speaker 1: I was almost there. But so if it's a four
29:13
Speaker 1: and a half, should I be betting the Bucks right now?
29:16
Speaker 1: Is that what the wise guys are telling me? Or
29:17
Speaker 1: they were betting the five they were they bet plus
29:20
Speaker 1: six and they bet plus five and a half. And
29:23
Speaker 1: I can see this game going down to four. So
29:26
Speaker 1: if you're gonna, if you're gonna, I'm not doing it.
29:28
Speaker 1: If you want I don't want it. I don't want it. Yeah,
29:30
Speaker 1: I don't want any part of the Bengals. I mean,
29:33
Speaker 1: when when a team is laying six points, you look
29:36
Speaker 1: at some of the rest of the compare some of
29:37
Speaker 1: the rest of the teams on the board that are
29:39
Speaker 1: laying more than six points. You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers,
29:42
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, the Rams. I mean, those are
29:47
Speaker 1: the type of teams that lay six and seven points,
29:49
Speaker 1: not the Bengals, right, And I don't care. I don't
29:52
Speaker 1: care who they're playing. You either have to have, uh
29:54
Speaker 1: just a you know, a real good defense or you know,
29:58
Speaker 1: just an offense that can light up the board to
30:01
Speaker 1: be laying those kind of points consistently and uh, and
30:04
Speaker 1: the Bengals aren't that team. I was high on them
30:07
Speaker 1: earlier in the year. After a couple of weeks, I
30:09
Speaker 1: soured on them very quickly. Me too. It's such an
30:12
Speaker 1: interesting thing, and I think I talked about this in
30:14
Speaker 1: the podcast on Monday. You if you think about betting,
30:20
Speaker 1: you think about football through the lens of betting enough,
30:23
Speaker 1: you get a feel for like when there's value on
30:26
Speaker 1: a team. And I had this feeling about both the
30:28
Speaker 1: Colts and the Bengals earlier in the year. I had
30:31
Speaker 1: this feeling about the Cardinals for a few weeks. I
30:34
Speaker 1: had this feeling about the Redskins for the past few weeks,
30:36
Speaker 1: Like you can see when there are teams that, through
30:41
Speaker 1: a variety of stats, are just the right teams to
30:44
Speaker 1: be on, and and then you can feel it end,
30:48
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. And I felt it end
30:51
Speaker 1: with the Cardinals in stunning lee fashion. Um. Unfortunately a
30:56
Speaker 1: little one bet too late. But I did feel it
30:59
Speaker 1: with the calls, and I did feel it with the Bengals,
31:02
Speaker 1: and I feel it with the Redskins too. We're gonna
31:03
Speaker 1: get to that game, um. Ravens at panthers though Panthers
31:08
Speaker 1: plus one. Let me tell you right now, this game
31:13
Speaker 1: is testing everything I believe in, because I think there
31:17
Speaker 1: are significant market forces impacting this point spread. But it's
31:23
Speaker 1: put it in a position where I like almost it's
31:29
Speaker 1: challenging my my my two principal beliefs, right, is challenging
31:32
Speaker 1: my home dog short home dog belief, and it's challenging
31:38
Speaker 1: my recency bias public perception belief. So the immovable force
31:47
Speaker 1: and the uh, well, how does that go? The object?
31:51
Speaker 1: I don't know something. It's it's the something has to give.
31:56
Speaker 1: Something's got to give. I don't know someone. So which
32:00
Speaker 1: you can one of the hipster MAT's Google like, what
32:02
Speaker 1: is that phrase? A movable removable force versus the solid object?
32:06
Speaker 1: What is it? No, that's not unstoppable meets a movable No,
32:14
Speaker 1: that's not what it is. We got eight fucking computers open.
32:17
Speaker 1: Can someone just look it up? A movable object meets
32:24
Speaker 1: unstoppable force? Is that what you said? Yeah? That sounds good.
32:29
Speaker 1: It's a longfellow cord. I'm giving Matt h is now
32:34
Speaker 1: Matt number one. He wins, Oh this is nice. Oh
32:37
Speaker 1: we got longfellow. That's beautiful. You know Ze Wagner. I
32:48
Speaker 1: think it was Acapello number one strings, one of my favorites.
32:57
Speaker 1: My son and I, my older son and I listened to,
33:00
Speaker 1: uh the Symphony channel and sirious when I drive into
33:02
Speaker 1: school in the morning. Nice classie. I'm partial to Mozart's
33:08
Speaker 1: Piano Concerto number one. That's a pretty good one. Yeah,
33:13
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you. Yeah. So, um, this
33:21
Speaker 1: is a tough game. Immovable uh forest meets unstoppable object
33:25
Speaker 1: or something like that. So what do I do? What
33:27
Speaker 1: do I do? It's the Ravens minus one. I'm telling
33:30
Speaker 1: you right now what I want to do. Well, you
33:34
Speaker 1: you're not high on the Panthers, you probably want to
33:36
Speaker 1: I want to bet the Ravens. Yeah, I kind of
33:39
Speaker 1: sensed it, but not. I mean, there's really no value
33:44
Speaker 1: in the point spread here. It's just basically a pick
33:46
Speaker 1: um game. Um, we're saying that the Ravens are obviously
33:49
Speaker 1: a better team, uh and and and the Panthers just
33:53
Speaker 1: a home field that uh it's worth three three and
33:56
Speaker 1: a half points, but the ticket counts almost dead even so,
33:59
Speaker 1: I think the numbers probably not going to move so much.
34:02
Speaker 1: The public is not going to drive this one way
34:04
Speaker 1: or another. We saw a lot of games last week
34:06
Speaker 1: right in this range, you know, one one and a half. Um,
34:10
Speaker 1: even the Ravens Saints last week was it was another
34:14
Speaker 1: one of those that kept kind of going back and
34:17
Speaker 1: forth one one way one the other. The Redskins and
34:21
Speaker 1: the Cowboys was another one that opened up one side
34:25
Speaker 1: of one point favorite, closed the Cowboys a one and
34:27
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. Um, but I don't see the
34:30
Speaker 1: public really loving either side in this one. Uh. Just
34:34
Speaker 1: figures to be two teams relying more on their defenses
34:37
Speaker 1: than their offenses, and that's usually not the kind of
34:40
Speaker 1: game that draws a whole lot of public attention. I mean, look,
34:43
Speaker 1: this game probably would have been Ravens potentially minus three
34:49
Speaker 1: if they had beaten the Saints. Um. But they lose
34:53
Speaker 1: to the Saints. The Panthers come back and studying fashion
34:56
Speaker 1: against the Eagles, who still get too much credit from
34:59
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and so I think bookmakers essentially downgraded this
35:03
Speaker 1: game from about minus three to minus one? Am I wrong?
35:08
Speaker 1: That's about right? And so so if I look at
35:13
Speaker 1: it that way, I'm kind of getting two points of
35:17
Speaker 1: value on the Ravens. Yeah, it's an interesting perspective. I mean,
35:23
Speaker 1: the Panthers aren't getting much credit for the comeback when uh,
35:28
Speaker 1: whereas the Ravens are getting somewhat downgraded. So what do what?
35:32
Speaker 1: So what do you think should I bet the Ravens.
35:35
Speaker 1: I'd stay away. I don't love this game, yeah, but
35:39
Speaker 1: I'm getting two points of value according to Millman logic. Yeah,
35:44
Speaker 1: coming off of a tough loss too. I like your
35:47
Speaker 1: angle last week with the forty Niners kind of laying
35:50
Speaker 1: it all out on the field and then having to
35:52
Speaker 1: come back and play the Rams, and and that one
35:55
Speaker 1: panned out just the way you predicted, where just morale wise,
35:59
Speaker 1: the team just couldn't rebound. So it might be a
36:03
Speaker 1: little angle. Huh. I didn't bet that one. Yeah, Well,
36:11
Speaker 1: it's hard to bet like a huge home dog. It's
36:13
Speaker 1: like they were they like the Rams were laying huge
36:17
Speaker 1: numbers in San Francisco. Like, there's no way I could
36:20
Speaker 1: bet the Rams. Yeah. It goes against all the principles
36:24
Speaker 1: of sports betting. M double digits on the road, you
36:28
Speaker 1: can't do it. Uh. I am so torn on this game.
36:32
Speaker 1: I might have to come back to it. I might
36:33
Speaker 1: have to allegedly bet it. Uh, Redskins at Giants, Redskins
36:38
Speaker 1: minus one, Giants plus one? Is that what you're at?
36:42
Speaker 1: Redskins minus one? Right? I would go, all right, yeah,
36:48
Speaker 1: you don't know. You go, well, it's another game, just
36:52
Speaker 1: like we It's almost identical to uh some of the
36:56
Speaker 1: other games that we talked about the Redskins Cowboys last week,
36:59
Speaker 1: UH one point favorite where the better team is on
37:02
Speaker 1: the road but just not laying quite a field goal.
37:05
Speaker 1: I would probably favor the Redskins in this one. I
37:09
Speaker 1: know the public is going to be largely on the Redskins.
37:12
Speaker 1: We haven't had this game up on the board very
37:15
Speaker 1: long because we UH waited for the Giants game Monday night,
37:20
Speaker 1: so there hasn't been a whole lot of betting activity yet.
37:23
Speaker 1: But we know it's going to come in probably largely
37:26
Speaker 1: on the Redskins. Uh, just in public money and whether
37:30
Speaker 1: or not the sharp guys want to get involved with
37:32
Speaker 1: the Giants at home. UH. I don't see a whole
37:36
Speaker 1: a whole lot of sharp guy money coming in on
37:39
Speaker 1: this game. I'll tell you one sharp guy is going
37:41
Speaker 1: to come in in this game. As soon as this
37:42
Speaker 1: line gets a little bit higher. You like the Giants.
37:47
Speaker 1: I hate to say it, Situationally, I like the Giants.
37:52
Speaker 1: It's similar to me with the Ravens, right Like, Look,
37:55
Speaker 1: I've been betting the Redskins for the past couple of
37:57
Speaker 1: weeks and I've seen them sort of in their ascent,
38:02
Speaker 1: and now they've got it right, Like they're gonna get
38:06
Speaker 1: the public money, road favorites. They'll probably close it to
38:10
Speaker 1: maybe close to and a half. A lot of money
38:12
Speaker 1: is going to come in on them. They just beat
38:14
Speaker 1: the Cowboys in a high profile game. They had you know,
38:17
Speaker 1: Tony Romo and Jim Nance like they were the game. Um,
38:21
Speaker 1: and now they're in first place in the NFC East.
38:24
Speaker 1: Like they got public on their side, and the Giants
38:27
Speaker 1: will not have public on their side all year. So
38:30
Speaker 1: to me, it's like very similar and sort of the
38:32
Speaker 1: public perception recency biased conversation we just talked about with
38:36
Speaker 1: the Ravens and Panthers, only it's a little bit flipped. Um.
38:39
Speaker 1: Whereas I might be on the road favorite in the
38:42
Speaker 1: Ravens game, I am very much in favor of the
38:45
Speaker 1: underdog in this game. Yeah it does, it actually does. Yeah, Um,
38:53
Speaker 1: I could understand the move. Um. The sharp guys were
38:59
Speaker 1: on the Giants against the Alkins, and the Falcons are um,
39:03
Speaker 1: you know, much better team I think than the Redskins.
39:06
Speaker 1: Um so, so I could understand the play on the Giants. Um.
39:12
Speaker 1: I mean there's probably a whole not a risk on
39:14
Speaker 1: our end by moving it from pick to one to
39:17
Speaker 1: one and a half. I mean, things just have to
39:18
Speaker 1: fall exactly perfect to kill us there. But I see
39:24
Speaker 1: the line going up though, and then so you're gonna
39:26
Speaker 1: end up taking the Giants. I might go to one
39:28
Speaker 1: and a half right now force you to allegedly bet.
39:34
Speaker 1: But I gotta tell you, I think this game is
39:36
Speaker 1: gonna go to two. So you're gonna wait till two.
39:39
Speaker 1: You don't want one and a half, you want at
39:41
Speaker 1: least two two and a half. I think it's I'm
39:43
Speaker 1: gonna wait until kickoff. Okay, why why wouldn't I Do
39:48
Speaker 1: you think anybody's gonna bet the Giants. It's not going
39:51
Speaker 1: to go the other way, right, I don't think it's
39:53
Speaker 1: gonna go the other way. It's called savvy, scooch. You
39:55
Speaker 1: want to get the best of the line. What I'm
39:57
Speaker 1: saying you are, Yeah, you are savvy. I'll allegedly met
40:01
Speaker 1: this game on Sunday, um Jets at my beloved Bears.
40:07
Speaker 1: Jets plus seven too big, too rich for my blood. Yeah,
40:12
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't have a good feel on this one.
40:14
Speaker 1: This is one of the ones where I thought we
40:17
Speaker 1: were making it on the high side. Uh where a
40:22
Speaker 1: Chicago minus seven right now? I could easily see this
40:25
Speaker 1: thing going up seven and a half eight. Um, you
40:30
Speaker 1: know even though that you know, I'm I'm watching the Jets.
40:32
Speaker 1: I like their offense. They moved the ball against some
40:34
Speaker 1: pretty good defenses. I just feel like they're going to
40:37
Speaker 1: struggle in this one. And uh, I'm probably gonna be
40:41
Speaker 1: real aggressive here too. And uh, we're already getting a
40:45
Speaker 1: ton of money on the Bears, both sharp and public.
40:49
Speaker 1: So that's not a good sign. Yeah, So so that
40:54
Speaker 1: tells me that this one, this one's gonna go up.
40:56
Speaker 1: I'm I'm actually gonna move this one to seven minus
40:59
Speaker 1: twenty right now. Let you lay a dollar. We've never
41:05
Speaker 1: had a hat trick for line moves in this show. No,
41:09
Speaker 1: that's a first. Huh, Seahawks, it lines, no love for
41:14
Speaker 1: the go ahead, no say what you want to say, no, no, no, no, no,
41:18
Speaker 1: just there's just not not many bets on the Jets,
41:21
Speaker 1: No bets on Jets no Benny and the Jets no Seahawks.
41:26
Speaker 1: It lines. This is boy, this Lions team defensive turning
41:31
Speaker 1: it around. Carry On Johnson? Is that his name? Yep?
41:37
Speaker 1: Carry on Johnson and fellow football. He's really good. Given
41:42
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford some support Seahawks and basically Russell Wilson. I
41:47
Speaker 1: think I think I'm just convincing myself right now to
41:51
Speaker 1: bet the lines a very short home favorite. What do
41:54
Speaker 1: you think of that? Yeah, we gotta I agree with you.
41:58
Speaker 1: And we've already gotten some pretty sharp money on the
42:01
Speaker 1: Lions as well. So uh, Seahawks still carry a little
42:06
Speaker 1: appeal from the betting public, so uh. And the Lions,
42:10
Speaker 1: even though some of the guys like yourself, you know,
42:12
Speaker 1: you're sharp guys pick up on those little things that
42:15
Speaker 1: the public hasn't jumped on them quite yet. Uh so um.
42:19
Speaker 1: I think three is pretty solid, I think, but the
42:22
Speaker 1: fact that the wise guys already laid three tells me
42:25
Speaker 1: it's going to go up, but not necessarily just from
42:28
Speaker 1: public money. I think the wise guys are on the
42:30
Speaker 1: same side as you on this one. Do you think
42:33
Speaker 1: I should bet this Ravens game? We're back to the
42:39
Speaker 1: Ravens well, I'm allegedly going through the games in my
42:45
Speaker 1: alleged sports book, and it just you know, I just
42:48
Speaker 1: clicked yes on the lines. I just clicked yes on
42:51
Speaker 1: the Broncos and passing the Ravens game. Let me let
42:55
Speaker 1: me move on, Hold on, let me just move on here. Yeah,
42:58
Speaker 1: let me not do that yet. Uh. Well, you're really
43:02
Speaker 1: multitasking there. Huh. You're well, you could argue it's not
43:07
Speaker 1: a good thing. Yeah, you know. Uh, but I'm going
43:12
Speaker 1: to bet the lines. I think we've we've come to
43:14
Speaker 1: a deduction on that. Your attention, please, Chad is making
43:18
Speaker 1: a bet allegedly. All right, so this gets interesting now.
43:22
Speaker 1: Scooch cults at Raiders. The Raiders. The Raiders are clearly
43:28
Speaker 1: in a free fall, just like Jon Gruden's given up
43:31
Speaker 1: on this year. He's decided, I don't like the best player,
43:35
Speaker 1: the best defensive player in football. I don't like the
43:37
Speaker 1: only guy in my team we're throwing the ball too.
43:40
Speaker 1: I don't like my uh first round selection from two
43:43
Speaker 1: thousand seventeen. I don't even like my city. I'm going
43:46
Speaker 1: to move this team to Vegas. Like he is just
43:50
Speaker 1: stripping the car of everything that it has. Yeah, yeah,
43:57
Speaker 1: you're not kidding. I mean this line a look aheadline
44:01
Speaker 1: I saw actually weeks and weeks ago, just looking ahead
44:05
Speaker 1: to this game. Raiders would have been a three point
44:07
Speaker 1: favorite in this one. So it says quite a bit
44:10
Speaker 1: a lot when the Colts, who are not a good team,
44:14
Speaker 1: are are now laying three points on the road. So
44:19
Speaker 1: basically a six point adjustment over the last few weeks,
44:22
Speaker 1: uh from what the line would have been, So probably
44:25
Speaker 1: the biggest adjustment since the beginning of the year, and
44:30
Speaker 1: I could see it actually going up even more. There's
44:32
Speaker 1: no there's no sharp money on on the Raiders at all.
44:36
Speaker 1: So here's another game that we're gonna inch up, slowly,
44:41
Speaker 1: even off of just a few thousand dollars, creeping up
44:43
Speaker 1: to see when somebody comes in pretty big on the underdog.
44:47
Speaker 1: So another game as we're as we're kind of moving
44:50
Speaker 1: down these games, kind of gradually adjusting all these favorites.
44:55
Speaker 1: If you've noticed, you are clearly I love that though.
45:02
Speaker 1: Was that? So? Did you officially make a line change
45:04
Speaker 1: right now? I did, but I didn't want to hear
45:07
Speaker 1: the horn again. That's well, I'll tell you what I may,
45:18
Speaker 1: I may or may not. While you were talking have
45:23
Speaker 1: allegedly bet this next game plus two others. Your attention, please,
45:30
Speaker 1: Chad is making a bet allegedly. This next game is
45:34
Speaker 1: the Packers at Rams. Packers plus nine, the largest dog
45:40
Speaker 1: that Aaron Rodgers has ever been, only by half a point. Dude.
45:49
Speaker 1: Half points mean everything. They were eight point dog in
45:54
Speaker 1: two thousand four. Half of points mean everything. So I
46:02
Speaker 1: agree with you, and we are. Actually I wanted to
46:06
Speaker 1: be the absolute lowest on the Rams, so I mean
46:09
Speaker 1: this may come back to haunt me because the ticket
46:12
Speaker 1: count is about three to one Rams to Packers. But
46:15
Speaker 1: I don't think you give one of the best quarterbacks
46:18
Speaker 1: in NFL history, uh eight and a half points and
46:22
Speaker 1: not take it. So I know there's nines. I've actually
46:25
Speaker 1: seen tens a lot of nine and a half. We're
46:29
Speaker 1: at eight and a half and it would be tougher.
46:32
Speaker 1: I think a wise guy to lay that many points,
46:34
Speaker 1: even with a good team like the Rams. I know
46:37
Speaker 1: the public will lay it, but uh, I think the
46:40
Speaker 1: sharp guys have to take the Packers in this one,
46:43
Speaker 1: and uh so I want to be on the low
46:45
Speaker 1: side just to kind of fend off the sharp action.
46:50
Speaker 1: I'm with you, man, I love the Packers. In this game.
46:54
Speaker 1: Love it. I don't think I mean the Rams, but
46:58
Speaker 1: too I to know. I need to get John Uing
47:02
Speaker 1: to go into the bet labs two for the Action
47:04
Speaker 1: Network and Sports Insights and figure out how many times
47:09
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has lost games by double digits in his career.
47:14
Speaker 1: That's a great question. You have to share that with me.
47:17
Speaker 1: I'd like to know too. I will okay, Um, all right,
47:25
Speaker 1: forty Cardinals, we have to talk about this. No, these
47:28
Speaker 1: Cardinals are one point favorite Cardinals are also in free fall.
47:32
Speaker 1: Forty Niners or haven't been the same obviously since uh
47:36
Speaker 1: uh that that tough loss and then coming back and
47:39
Speaker 1: get annihilated by the Rams. So this has be another
47:42
Speaker 1: corner TV game, corner TV game. Nothing to say here,
47:46
Speaker 1: all right? So this one. I've already bet Saints and Vikings.
47:49
Speaker 1: I bet the Vikings. Uh, I think I bet him
47:52
Speaker 1: by a point or point and a half, I can't remember,
47:56
Speaker 1: but the Vikings minus one right now. I bet the
47:59
Speaker 1: Vice moved it. I bet the Vikings. I bet the Vikings.
48:03
Speaker 1: Can I tell you why? Tell me why? Number one?
48:09
Speaker 1: The Saints are five and one. They're cruising right now.
48:12
Speaker 1: One of us on this phone also bought a Saints
48:14
Speaker 1: ticket to win the Super Bowl, and I'm thrilled about
48:18
Speaker 1: everything that's happening to them. But we've reached peak Saints
48:22
Speaker 1: right now. Like the Vikings have been struggling. They can't
48:25
Speaker 1: put away teams, but they are winning and Kirk Cousins
48:28
Speaker 1: is actually having an incredible year. And while that defense
48:31
Speaker 1: isn't near what we thought it would be or what
48:33
Speaker 1: it was last year. Um, they're improving. They're definitely getting better.
48:38
Speaker 1: And I like the idea that they're at home is
48:42
Speaker 1: a very short favorite against the Saints team that really
48:45
Speaker 1: got lucky last weekends. The Ravens is probably getting more
48:47
Speaker 1: credit than it deserves. Um, end of my rant, tell
48:52
Speaker 1: me why you're taking the Saints. No, I'm not taking
48:56
Speaker 1: the Saints. I think situationally, you're right. I just think
48:58
Speaker 1: the points bread is right where it should be. And uh,
49:01
Speaker 1: I know the public will still kind of ride the
49:03
Speaker 1: Saints from from the last couple of weeks. But I
49:07
Speaker 1: think the Vikings. I think the Vikings win this game
49:10
Speaker 1: and then I think the Saints give the Rams their
49:12
Speaker 1: first loss. That's that's what I'm saying. Interesting, Look, they're
49:15
Speaker 1: playing next week, They're playing I'm looking ahead and and
49:18
Speaker 1: the Saints are at home next week, and that's where
49:21
Speaker 1: and that's where they beat the Rams. That so this
49:24
Speaker 1: game is interesting game. Yeah, I like that. I like
49:29
Speaker 1: that idea. Um, I like that a lot. Do you
49:38
Speaker 1: think I'm on the right Do you think this line
49:40
Speaker 1: is going to move? Do you think the Saints are
49:42
Speaker 1: gonna end up favored in this game? Um? The public
49:48
Speaker 1: is definitely on them. And I got a little, a little,
49:52
Speaker 1: you know, we were actually opened one and a half.
49:55
Speaker 1: We took took a few thousand dollars on the Saints
49:58
Speaker 1: at plus one and a half and moved it to one.
50:02
Speaker 1: And I don't necessarily think that was a professional better.
50:05
Speaker 1: I think it was just some some some big bets
50:09
Speaker 1: from some recreational betters. But I don't I don't think.
50:14
Speaker 1: I don't think those sharp guys will come in too
50:16
Speaker 1: heavily on this one. I don't see. You won't see
50:17
Speaker 1: a big line change when sharp guy did just you.
50:23
Speaker 1: It's all takes right, Yep, you know what I'm saying. Yep.
50:29
Speaker 1: But it's a situational game. I think I think you're
50:31
Speaker 1: on the right side, can you please? I like to
50:34
Speaker 1: say Saints team though, That's all I'm saying is I
50:36
Speaker 1: like the Saints team. Maybe not in this game, but
50:39
Speaker 1: I like them. Uh, Patriots minus fourteen on the road,
50:47
Speaker 1: What then do you do with this? Seriously, it's boggles
50:52
Speaker 1: the mind. The ticket count is twenty to one right now,
51:00
Speaker 1: kidding me, No, this is the largest ratio I've ever
51:04
Speaker 1: seen so far, and to one on the Patriots. As
51:09
Speaker 1: to touchdown road favorites, It's insane, isn't it. It's insane.
51:18
Speaker 1: But I can't at the Bills. No, It's like you
51:23
Speaker 1: could bet any other team in the NFL as a
51:28
Speaker 1: two touchdown. You can bet against any other team in
51:31
Speaker 1: the NFL is a two touchdown road a favorite. I
51:33
Speaker 1: will not do it with the Patriots. How many times
51:38
Speaker 1: have you gotten burned by either betting against the Patriots
51:42
Speaker 1: when situations call for it? It just happens too many times.
51:45
Speaker 1: As long as and I keep saying it, but as
51:48
Speaker 1: long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are part of
51:50
Speaker 1: that Patriots team, I'm just gonna pass on games like this.
51:55
Speaker 1: I hate doing it. I mean, it's a Monday night game.
51:58
Speaker 1: We we this game is gonna be so big. It's
52:01
Speaker 1: gonna be bigger than the Falcons Giants game was last week.
52:05
Speaker 1: So if some of these big favorites, like if the
52:10
Speaker 1: the Rams cover, and the Bears and the Steelers, I mean,
52:14
Speaker 1: if all these favorite big favorites cover, going to Monday Night,
52:17
Speaker 1: this might be the biggest Monday Night game ever in
52:20
Speaker 1: terms of liability, not in terms of popularity. It's gonna
52:26
Speaker 1: be rough. Oh my god, we're gonna have to talk
52:29
Speaker 1: about that next week. I can't already can't wait to
52:31
Speaker 1: talk about that next week. Yeah, yep, hey Scooch. I
52:36
Speaker 1: mean this is gonna go up. It's gonna go up
52:38
Speaker 1: to fourteen. So maybe maybe the wise guys will take
52:40
Speaker 1: it at fourteen. If I move it to fourteen, you're
52:43
Speaker 1: gonna play that horn again. We'll play the strings. Okay,
52:48
Speaker 1: I'm going to fourteen. I want to see what they
52:50
Speaker 1: do with it. I would also, you know, you know
53:01
Speaker 1: what we should sample. We should sample berbers Adagio for strings.
53:07
Speaker 1: It's very haunting. Who wow, we should that should be like, um,
53:16
Speaker 1: that is the music I think it was in like Platoon.
53:19
Speaker 1: You you know the music it's always in like every
53:21
Speaker 1: movie when they're doing something that is really dramatic. Um,
53:24
Speaker 1: you'll hear it and Uh, I think that that would
53:28
Speaker 1: be great music for like when something bad has happened
53:31
Speaker 1: to you, like when you lose this. We'll play that
53:35
Speaker 1: if you can play the haunting stuff. Yeah, I like it.
53:40
Speaker 1: Let's do that. Um, and we don't You don't have
53:43
Speaker 1: to pay for that classical music. Huh, that's in the
53:45
Speaker 1: public domain, is that right? I don't know I'm getting.
53:49
Speaker 1: I'm getting shaking of the head and a person of
53:52
Speaker 1: the lips like Scooch just out of his lane a
53:55
Speaker 1: little bit. He doesn't really know what I'm listen to you.
54:02
Speaker 1: I started communications at USC with a Pulitzer winner. What
54:05
Speaker 1: I'm talking about? It's good? Try though, guess what time
54:12
Speaker 1: to do? It's I think I know it's that time again.
54:23
Speaker 1: We can sample that ship for free, but we can't
54:26
Speaker 1: get Adagio for strings for free. All right, Well, we
54:31
Speaker 1: need a bigger budget. We need a music budget. Hey,
54:35
Speaker 1: how do we do in Screwtrolet? Last week? Who did
54:37
Speaker 1: you have? I had the Redskins? You had the Redskins? Right,
54:41
Speaker 1: you were taking the Redskins and I wanted the Redskins.
54:43
Speaker 1: So I think I ended up taking the Bears, right.
54:46
Speaker 1: I took Arizona. That was ugly. Yeah, then I get
54:52
Speaker 1: to go first this week, go ahead. I want the
54:56
Speaker 1: Vikings minus one. I figured that. Yeah, not bad, not bad. Yeah,
55:04
Speaker 1: who do you want? I want the Cardinals minus one. No,
55:09
Speaker 1: that's horrible. Who wants the Oh my god, I was
55:11
Speaker 1: kidd of Wow, that's crazy. No, actually I have to
55:17
Speaker 1: take the Packers, taking the pack Absolutely have to take
55:23
Speaker 1: the Packers plus that many points. And that's assuming everyone's healthy.
55:27
Speaker 1: I don't want it to come out later that, you know,
55:30
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers hurt his knee again in practice or something.
55:33
Speaker 1: But healthy Rogers. I gotta take it. We are both
55:37
Speaker 1: NFC North fans this weekend. Oh true? Yeah, yeah, alright, Scooch,
55:46
Speaker 1: this has been the favorites. I'm Chad Millman of the
55:49
Speaker 1: Action Network. He was Bob Scucci of the Orleans and
55:52
Speaker 1: all the Boy gaming books around the country. You can
55:55
Speaker 1: download us from Apple Podcasts. You can listen to us
55:58
Speaker 1: at radio dot com. We are on the air Monday,
56:01
Speaker 1: Wednesday and Friday. Next up will be with Friday Black
56:04
Speaker 1: Chack Fletcher Westgate Super Contest five picks. Until next time,
56:11
Speaker 1: m