Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Big Beautiful Bust: Why Tax Day Isn’t A Win For Trump + What Lessons Can We Take From Orban’s Defeat In Hungary

Transcript

Chuck’s Commentary - Big Beautiful Bust: Why Tax Day Isn’t A Win For Trump + What Lessons Can We Take From Orban’s Defeat In Hungary · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: vary and rates may vary. Hello Aaron, Welcome to the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Wednesday edition of the Chuck Podcast. This is a good
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: sort of bread and butter political update if you will,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: have my big top five list on Senate races today,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: But it's about the next five.
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  Speaker 2: You know.
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  Speaker 1: It feels like the first four are of the most
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: likely flips, are pretty much set in stone and are
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: unlikely to change. Now in November, what's really fluid is
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: actually frankly five through ten, you know, in that fifth slot,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: and you'll hear me go into it. So I got
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: that today, got some great questions towards the end, but
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: of course, and I've got a big breakdown on what
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: happened in Hungary and whether how much I'm reading into it.
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  Speaker 1: I'll let you decide how much you want to read
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  Speaker 1: into it, and how prescient foreshadowing and whether it is
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: and what can be learned from it here in the
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: United States. But I do want to begin with today's
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  Speaker 1: April fifteen. Now, in my household, the most important thing
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: is it's my son's birthday, so buddy, happy birthday. He
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: is finishing his first year in college, so I am
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: thankful for that.
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  Speaker 2: He is my youngest.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I also have an April birthday, and when he was
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: born in April, it meant that's it, right, My birthday
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: went away, April became his birthday month. So in my
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: house so he was born on tax day, and let's
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: just say he wasn't. The joke was, oh, did you
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: have yourself a nice tax deduction? And I said no,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: we had a boy. But I digress, but it is
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  Speaker 1: tax day, and I want to bring it up because
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: if you were James Blair, who's the political director at
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the White House who's now just left and he's going
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: to be running the campaign, or you're Chris los Apida,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: or you're on any Susie Wiles, you're part of the
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: sort of the political team around the president, you had
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  Speaker 1: circled April fifteenth, twenty twenty six as perhaps the single
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  Speaker 1: most important day in your in the midterm campaign season
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: before November itself. And why would that be Because you
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  Speaker 1: were banking on April fifteen, that first tax day, after
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  Speaker 1: passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the no
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  Speaker 1: tax on tips and all of those promises that you
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: were fulfilling and hoping to deliver with the One Big
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Beautiful Bill, that this would be the day you could
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: celebrate bigger refunds and people had more money in their pockets.
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  Speaker 1: And then of course he starts a war with Iran
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  Speaker 1: in February twenty eighth, and before that, he teariffs the
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: crap out of things, and so whatever extra money people
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: were getting thanks to some of the tax proposals that
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: were put in has been totally gobbled up whatever positive
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: feelings somebody might have had of getting a little.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: Bit more back from the irs.
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  Speaker 1: They have not felt the extra money because it went
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: right back out the door for their rising electric bill,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: or their rising gas bill, or their rising costs, frankly,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to go even to the grocery store. And so this
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be a big beautiful day for tax day,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: one big beautiful tax day, and instead it's one big
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: beautiful bust because this is an economy that is not good.
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  Speaker 1: It's not every I just taped a conversation with a
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: member of the FET, the president of the Chicago FET,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Austin Goals Me. It'll be on my Newsphere program coming
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: up this weekend. For those of you who subscribe, I
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: thank you. I hope you will take a look at
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: what we're doing over there at Newsphere. It's some really
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: really good journalism over there. But obviously we spent a
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: lot of time talking to the economy, and we just
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: taped it down, so you know, it's fresh.
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  Speaker 2: In my head.
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  Speaker 1: And this is an economy that is you know, it's
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  Speaker 1: not good, and it's not in recession, right, It's this
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: it's a crappy economy. That isn't in recession. I don't
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  Speaker 1: know how else to describe it. I'm not quoting him,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: he didn't put it that way. I mean, it's you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's one of the lines he's used when it comes
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  Speaker 1: to describing the employment picture, for instance, of the economy
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  Speaker 1: is low higher low fire.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: You know, hiring looks like we're in a recession, but
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the lack of layoffs looks like we're in a boom time.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: So there's the fact is it's unstable and everything. And
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: this gets back to had Donald Trump not touched tariffs
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  Speaker 1: the way he did, had he not started this war
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  Speaker 1: of choice with Iran, perhaps today would be a huge
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  Speaker 1: day for him. Perhaps today would be the day he
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  Speaker 1: was fulfilling a promise to put more money in people's pockets,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: to make their life a bit more affordable. But that
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  Speaker 1: is not the policy that he chose. He chose inflationary
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: policies with tariffs, and he chose a decision on a
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  Speaker 1: war that created inflationary conditions.
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  Speaker 2: And now we're in a.
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  Speaker 1: Situation where we could be in the worst of both worlds,
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  Speaker 1: rising unemployment and rising inflation, which makes life miserable for
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  Speaker 1: our friends. The Fed of trying to figure out what
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  Speaker 1: do you do to stimulate this economy or are we
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: basically going to have another decade like the seventies of
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: just a crappy economy where we go nowhere and we
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  Speaker 1: wonder as the rest of the world passed us by,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: or we in trouble, et cetera. And that's you know,
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  Speaker 1: this is I mean, it's you know, one of the
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  Speaker 1: things I've thought about here is like we haven't had
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: a bad at sort of an this kind of weird,
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  Speaker 1: unsteady economy since Jimmy Carter's presidency. And I know Donald Trump,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: you know, he loves to talk about Carter being a
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: bad president or Biden be a bad president. But there's
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  Speaker 1: nobody who's economic policy looks more like Jimmy Carter's these
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: days than Donald Trump's, right, And you know, the mismanagement
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  Speaker 1: of the Middle East is caused more economic uncertainty, also
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  Speaker 1: a hallmark of what happened in the late stages of
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the Carter years. And so here we are, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: you know this this and it is politically terrible for
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  Speaker 1: him that he cannot celebrate tax Day the way he
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  Speaker 1: intended to. And they're going to see they're going to try.
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  Speaker 1: But the problem they got is this tax cuts not
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  Speaker 1: being felt by anybody. And that's the real problem and
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  Speaker 1: why this has become the one big beautiful bust it is.
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  Speaker 1: You know, it is not delivering what they hoped it
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  Speaker 1: would deliver. And now the question is can he find
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: a way out of this Iran war of choice that
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  Speaker 1: stabilizes the economy and maybe puts uh the economy on
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  Speaker 1: a better trajectory by the fall, because he really only has.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: When you talk to all the economic experts I've been
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: talking to over the last few weeks, you know, we
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  Speaker 1: are we are. We've in fact to day's the day,
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  Speaker 1: April fifteenth, essentially is the day that the sanctions relief
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  Speaker 1: goes away for those Russian for Russian oil, sanctions release
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  Speaker 1: goes away for a Ranian oil. You've got the last
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  Speaker 1: tankers that made it through the Strait before the start
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  Speaker 1: of the war. I think go to port by the
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  Speaker 1: end of this weekend beginning of next week. So everything,
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  Speaker 1: you know, all of the concerns sort of like, Okay,
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  Speaker 1: we're hanging in there. We're hanging in there. This could
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  Speaker 1: end up going off a cliff in the next couple
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  Speaker 1: more weeks.
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  Speaker 2: Right now.
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  Speaker 1: Every extra week this goes on only exponentially adds to
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  Speaker 1: the length of time it's going to take to recover
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  Speaker 1: from this, to recover the supply chain, to recover shipping
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  Speaker 1: through the strait, to recover financially through the system.
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  Speaker 2: So it's.
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  Speaker 1: A very precarious position the economy's in, which of course
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: has put Donald Trump in a very precarious position politically,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: and in fact, you know, he's in a terrible you
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: know that he's in a bad political spot when something
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: he does on social media that normally doesn't get criticism
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  Speaker 1: from people who support him gets criticism. And I think
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: this sort of is a reminder and I've said this,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I've said it, sort of hinted at this a few
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: times over the last few weeks. I think it's likely
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: we will look back on this period of the Trump
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: presidency and say, hey, this is kind of when it
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: all came to an end. Doesn't mean he doesn't finish
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: out the term. I'm not going that far, but it's
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: sort of like when does the presidency stop having you know,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: where the public is sort of saying, yeah, this one's over,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a failed presidency, This one's
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: not going anywhere. So now the question is how much
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: more damage gets done and can we mitigate the damage
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: between now in January twenty nine. And that's kind of
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: where we are right right now. And you know, at
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: this point, the best we can hope for is if
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Trump essentially, you know, it is.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: Clear we're going to get a deal. Right.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: The fact that it's leaked out that the Iranians said
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: they wanted they were willing to do a five year
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: moratorium in a Richmond, the United States wanted a twenty
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: year moratorium, Well, they both accepted the premise that there
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: would be an end date on the moratorium, right, So
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: all right, five twenty you know, do you split the
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: difference you to go, twelve to go? I mean, we
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: know what's coming and it's essentially the Iran nuclear Deal
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: by another name, because there's no other way out of
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: this unless he wants to put ground troops in and
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: try to get regime change.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: But short of that, the.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Only thing he can do is figure out how to
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: buy off the Iranians to open up the straight and
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: here we are, he kind of has to because this
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: economy is getting worse by the day, this energy problem
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: gets worse by Yes, our economy were more resilient now
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: than they were in the seventies. So while this shock
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: in some ways is bigger than what happened in the seventies,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: we're also more diversified on all levels. Our energy is
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: more diversified, our ability, right, we don't import as much.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Right, We're exporters now when it comes to oil. So
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: we are certainly able to sustain. We have better shock absorbers.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, but it doesn't mean it doesn't impact and it
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't do damage. And the longer this goes on, the
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: closer it gets. But I wanted to circle back to
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: to why I believe that you're starting to see you're
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: starting to see signs that this presidency's that people are
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: starting to give up on it, even some of his supporters.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: And it was how badly his Jesus meme, how quickly
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: and badly it played, right, how quickly it was denounced
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and how badly it played. We know Donald Trump rarely retreats,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: and when he retreats, it's because it's people in his
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: own orbit that say, you've gone too far right on
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the Obama ape meme. Right, Tim Scott criticized it, he
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: erased it. I did not think it was that, right,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: he suddenly I didn't realize I didn't. I didn't watch
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: it all the way through. Right, This is always his excuse.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: You know, It's very interesting on Trump. He knows that
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: there's he has this reputation of not being very bright,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: having a short attention span, and he'll sometimes use it
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: as a crutch and like.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Well, I didn't watch it all the way through.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like playing to our own bias of thinking, well,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: of course he didn't watch it because he's lazy, so
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: weirdly he uses it as an excuse, right when I
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: have no doubt he watched the whole video and he
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: knew it all the way through. And I think sometimes
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: we give him too much room to get away where
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: our own we project our own bias on him. We
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: think he's kind of, you know, like kind of scatterbrain
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: that he's kind of you know, so, yeah, it's possible
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: he could do that, right, and he he uses that as.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: A way to try to get out of things.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: It doesn't apologize for it, but.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: The fact that he retreated, the fact that he deleted it,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the fact that he came up manufactured an excuse.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: So I thought it showed me as a doctor? What what? What? What?
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: What part of that AI generated clip made him look
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: like a doctor? The best, the most generous way, you
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: could say faith healer. Well, that's that's the most If
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: you say it was just a generic faith healer, maybe
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: that would have been slightly more believable, but it's not
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: very believable.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: He knew exactly what he was up to.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: On that, and the fact that you know he even
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: jad Vance wouldn't defend it. It. It's the fact that
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: there is a line. And I've always said everybody has
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: a line that Trump will eventually cross. And the question
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: is what do you do when he crosses your line?
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: You know, sometimes people get frustrated that there are certain
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: people staying support, but like, what do you do with
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: you know, everybody And you've heard me say this before, right,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Liz Cheney was publicly very supportive everything Trump did until
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: January six.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: So everybody had.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Their own line that was hers, right. John Bolton had
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: his line, Mike Pence had his line, right, everybody's had
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: their line. Chris Christy had a line, Lindsey Graham had
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a line. Then he jumped back to over it, right,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Mark or Rubia once had a line, then he jumped
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: back over it too, So you know, sometimes he crosses
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the line. You walk away, and then you beg for forgiveness,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and you come back because you want to be at
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: the cool kids table, and you've decided he's in charge
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: of the cool kids table with the Republican Party right now,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: which arguably he is so, but let me pain in
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: another scenario for you. If the economy rowing well and
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: we weren't in this war with Iran, and people and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: the Republicans were genuinely happy with the direction of where
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: things were going, and you just had your sort of
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: typical sort of left right anger at each other all
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: of the if he had done the same meme, you'd
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: have had people saying, yeah, it's not my favorite thing
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: he did, but he was just joking. You would have
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: had more people going saying, well, he's just joking, and
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: I don't take him seriously when he does stuff like that.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: I know he didn't mean.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: It, though, Like, if you're happy with the job he's
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: doing and you're uncomfortable with something he tweets or memes,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: you make the excuse for him.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: We've seen Mike Johnson do this a lot. We've seen
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: other support. Oh he didn't mean that, you know, Dady
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Vance is a reinterpreter of Trump all the time, you know, No, no, no,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: he didn't mean that on this one though. When things
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: aren't going well, when people are not happy with the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: direction your presidency, which you have openly a US bunch
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: of Republican senators now publicly including John Thune joining John
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Curtis keeping an eye on that clock and saying, hey,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: you know, we got to have some resolution of this war.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that he's in the middle of
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: an unpopular war, in the middle of an unpopular economy,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: and frankly looking like he is kind of flailing here
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit because he knows politically everything's not going well.
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: It sort of gets back to that expression and I
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: used a lot about three or four weeks ago that
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: I think still applies. Good gets better, bad gets worse,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and Trump is in the bad gets worse. Right, think
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: about where we were Easter meme. Everything like he is,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: it's getting more erratic. He's flailing more because he knows
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: this isn't working. He knows he made a mistake, and
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: he's trying to find a way out of it without
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: admitting he made.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: A mistake, and he's flailing.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: And you know, I know someone to say, it's twenty
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: for the amendment time, or it's just or that. Look,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: those of you calling for the twenty forth amendment, what's changed?
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: What part of Trump's president and see in twenty seventeen
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: is really that much different than the presidency he's doing
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. So either it's always been twenty
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: fifth Amendment time, or this is who he is. But
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: setting that aside here for a moment, I think it's
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the fact that people were willing not to defend him
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: on this one and didn't give him the benefit of doubt.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: That to me is more of a tell about how
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: unhappy they are with the current presidency. If things were
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: going better, they wouldn't feel this comfortable, feeling it necessary
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: to publicly say ridge too far, You shouldn't be doing this.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: It's the very beginning of, I think what you're going
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: to start to see more of, which is more and
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: more Republicans realizing Donald Trump's not going to be here
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: in two and a half years. He is not going
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: to be a relevant political figure in their lives the
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: way he is today. He may still be relevant, but
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: not as relevant.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: As he is today.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: And that's why I think that it's a small thing.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: But he's in retreat. People in his own side are
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: a little less. We've seen it even in the numbers
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: more people. And I get to this in a question later,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: somebody asked about Maga versus Republicanism, and I don't want
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: to repeat myself, but.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: My job is to read tea leaves.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Some of you may think sometimes I overread the tea leaves,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: but that all of these are tea leaves, and I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: think this is a leaf worth reading.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: It's cracks. Okay, it isn't a collapse. But once again,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: as I've been chronicling almost week after week, this is
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: yet another crack, another crack. At some point it could
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: collapse another level and on another floor.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you
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• 21:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna pivot now to Hungry. There's one topic I
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: haven't I haven't gotten to. It is hungry over the
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: last forty eight hours. And you know, a lot of
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: people are saying, you know, how much what should we
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: read into what happened? Does any of this mean anything
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: for the larger battle between sort of the nationalists right
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: and the small l liberal center and left right. You
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: know that that we're seeing all over Western Europe and
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: here in the United States and.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: All of that.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: And I'll tell you sort of I'm not gonna be
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: definitive here, but and I get into this, and I
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: get into some detail in my substat column this week,
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: which is up and running and it's free. I don't
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: charge for this. I don't charge for any of this.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: News fere is the only thing I do that's behind
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: a paywall. And the quality is that good. I think
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: it's It's worth your time and worth your money. But
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing this with the substat column, nor with.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: With what we do here. And I, by the way,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: I appreciate my sponsors. They they are they are.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: That is how we continue to do this, do this
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: for free. But I've been thinking about this for a
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: few months actually now, and it started it. I've been
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I've been sort of down these European rabbit holes for
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a bit, right, and I think there's something happening here.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I want to understand what we can learn from what's
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: happening in some other democracies.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: And the question is.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Are they a little bit ahead of where we are
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: or are they lagging indicators?
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Are they emulating what we're doing or are we emulating
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: what they're doing? Because for a long time, I think
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: we all just sort of accepted the following us fact
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: that it was America's democracy that made the weather for
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: other democracies, that we exported the model right campaigns, messaging consultants.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: In fact, if you were running a modern political campaign
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: in Europe, you were probably borrowing the American playbook, if
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: not Alxol actually hiring.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: The people who wrote the playbook. That was the assumption.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure that's true anymore, and I in fact,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: I think in the last decade, really the last fifteen years,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: going back to about twenty eleven, the idea is totally
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: flipped on its head because now when you look around,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like we're leading, that our democracy is
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: sort of setting the table. It feels like we're dealing
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: with frankly, the same forces as everybody else. Is that
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: we're kind of all in the same place, all at
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: the same time, and we're all reacting in similar ways.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: And that raises a simple question, are we still setting
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: the trends or are we just living in them? And
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: maybe here's a more uncomfortable question to consider. If these
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: systems start to break down, what actually replaces them? Because
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: here's the pattern that I think we're seeing in Hungary,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: and we saw a little bit in the UK, and
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: I'll get to this. There's a pattern here and it's
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: not subtle. Globalization, right disrupted job stability across the globe,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: especially in manufacturing. Migration increased across much of the developed world,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: our southern border, Mediterranean Sea, in Europe, they're a competition
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: for jobs, housing. It all intensified and then there's the
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: part that doesn't show up neatly in economic data, right,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the sense that communities are changing faster than people feel
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: like they can absorb. I think this is where the
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: cultural conservatism has come in. Maybe call it cultural dislocation,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: call it anxiety, whatever you want to call it, but
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: it's real and politically it's produced the same outcome in
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: country after country, right, a revolt against the establishment. We
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: saw it with Brexit in the UK. We saw it
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: here with Donald Trump in twenty seven sixteen. At the time,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: we treated those as separate events, different countries, different issues,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: and now they look like chapters in the same story.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to start with the UK because this
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: is where I think there's we should be paying close
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: attention to what's happening in the UK as well as
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: what happened in Hungary. So here's what's happening in the
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: UK right now, and this should be setting off big
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: time alarm bells in both party headquarters DNC and RNC.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: For decades, British politics has been simple Labor and the Tories,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the Tories being the Conservatives, so Labor and the Conservatives
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: back and forth. But what's happening now is not just
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: dissatisfaction with one party, it's dissatisfaction with both at the
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: same time and from both directions.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Sound familiar.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Polling right now in the UK shows that the combined
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: vote share of the two quote unquote major parties, Liberals
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: and the Tories, have dropped under forty percent. So more
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: than sixty percent of the country is affiliates with a
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: party not named Labor or the Tories. Think about that
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: this was a system essentially built on those two parties,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: and then you start looking at some of the modeling
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: based on the polling we've seen. One recent projection suggests
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: that if the UK had an election today, neither the
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Labor Party or the Conservative Party would be forming the government.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: It would be the Reform UK, the upstart Nigel Ferrars party,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: that would win pretty close to a majority three hundred
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: and twenty four seats, one seed short. At the same time, Labor,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: the current governing party, is projected to collapse to around
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: one hundred seats if the election were held today. It's
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: not going to be and.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: Here's the key.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: They're not just losing share on the right, losing share
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: on the left. The Greens not a very small minority
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: party in the UK would be projected to win seventy
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: plus seats. So it's not a shift for either party.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: It's a squeeze both sides at the same time. And
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: when that happened, systems don't gently adjust, they begin to wobble.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Now let's go a step further. Let's go to Hungary,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: because this is where the wobble turned into something else.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: See it's sixteen years of rule by one man, Victor Orbon.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: But in this case the system didn't just wabble.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: It broke. Orbon has conceded defeat. I think that in.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: And itself was a surprise. You have a Peter Magyar
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: leading the Teza party. Tisza right, he's going to become
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: prime minister. This wasn't a gradual shift, It wasn't incremental.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: It was sudden and decisive turnout nearly eighty percent, one
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: of the highest levels of turnout in post communist Hungary.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: This was not a protest vote. This was mass mobilization.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: This was a country deciding something. This was it enough
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: of this shit? Essentially right, And.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Here's the key.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: There was always a political opposition to Orbon. It existed
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: for years, but they failed.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: What changed.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Wasn't just the message, it was the messenger. Mag Yard
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: wasn't an outsider. He was an insider.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: He was part of the Orbon system.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: He actually married into the Orbon political orbit. He knew
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: how it worked, and he could say I was part
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: of this and it's not working. That matters because it
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: gave voters supporters of Orbon a permission slip to leave. Hey,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not the only one feeling this way. And once
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: he could fuse the argument. And this is a big
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: key here. And you know, democracy is roting, eroding, and
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: the economy is suffering because of the erosion of democracy.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Magyar connected those two right Democrats haven't been able to
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: connect this yet. Maybe if they do, they can pull
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: this off. And they haven't been able to yet. This
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: was huge and this is why it was such a
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: resounding victory. He took democracy and the voters saw the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: democratic erosion as the why their economy sucked. The coalition
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: didn't just grow, It flipped, right, It flipped. And you know,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: why should we take what happened in Hungary seriously? Because
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration cared about what happened in Hungary. They
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: certainly believe what happened in Hungary would matter here.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: That's why JD.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Vance went over there to try to rescue Orbon, and boy,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: what a wasted mission that was. By the way, this
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: is a quick aside, but when and we've already are
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: finding out right, apparently the Hungarian government was subsidizing Seapack.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Well who else are they subsidizing? How much government money
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: did Victor Orbon give to various influencers who would come
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: over and do these glowing profiles of him. Let's just say,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: if if you're one of those influencers who went to
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Hungary and played the game with Orbon and took whatever
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: financial reward that came with it, I have a failing
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: you're going to get exposed pretty soon. Just something to
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on. Well, let's bring it back to
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: the US, because the US version of this story looks
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: pretty different, but it rhymes. For about five years now,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: we've been stuck in this stalemate, right, I've been talking
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: about a close elections, constant turnover, no resolution. The numbers
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: pretty striking. We are seven straight presidential elections decided by
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: roughly six and a half seven points or less twenty
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: oh eight. I think the certified number was seven percentage points.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: You know, I always had it as six in my head,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: but it's seven. I double checked. But that's not normal.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: You have to go back to the Gilded Age eighteen
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: seventy six to nineteen hundred to find a similar streak
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: of seven straight presidential elections decided in this country by
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: seven points or less. By the way back in the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Gilded Age, two of those where the electoral college didn't
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: match the popular vote. Oh right, wait, we had two
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: of those, two where the electoral college didn't match the
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: popular vote. So we weren't just polarized.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: We're stuck.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: And history also tells us something. Sometimes that doesn't resolve,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: sometimes it simply breaks. In the eighteen fifties, we were
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: in a similar moment. The Whig Party couldn't adapt, it collapsed,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: and the Republican Party, they didn't emerge as a protest movement.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: It replaced one of the two parties entirely in six years,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: founded in eighteen fifty four, wins the presidency.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: By eighteen sixty.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: And here's the part that matters for today. Abraham Lincoln
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: wasn't an outsider. He was a former Whig, a defector.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Let's go back to Hungary. This is the part of
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the story I can't shake, and I think it's one
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: worth thinking about, because Hungry shows it, History shows it.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: The breakthrough doesn't come from outsiders. It comes from defectors,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: people who are inside the system and walk away from it.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Because outsiders they have a harder time being credible in
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: their criticism.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: Defectors can translate it.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: They can tell voters I know how this works, and
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you it's not working. That's a different kind
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: of credibility, and it does something critical. It gives those
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: voters permission to leave the movement without feeling like they're
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: jumping into the unknown or some now being traders. So
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: what does this look like here? Probably not a third
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: party candidate out of nowhere, Probably not an outsider campaign
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: built from scratch. But maybe it's someone who comes from
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: inside one of the parties, has credibility already with the
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: voters to a point, and breaks in a way that
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: signals the system itself isn't working anymore. That's the pattern,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: not a prediction, but a vulnerability. Now, maybe none of
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: this will train. Maybe our system is too rigid, Maybe
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the incentives are too strong to stay inside. The two parties.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe one party figures it out, but if voters eventually decide,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: like they have so far in the first twenty five years,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: that they keep trying both options and neither one delivers.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: That's what we're seeing in the UK right now. They
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: don't like either of the two major parties, so they're
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: flirting with others. History suggests that change won't come from
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: tweaking the system. It will come from replacing part of it.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: And if that moment comes, it may not be led
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: by an outsider. It may be from somebody from inside
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: one of the parties just deciding to walk away, taking
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: just enough voters with them to build something new. So
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: that's one way I'm absorbing the Hungarian elections and absorbing
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: what's happening in the UK, because what's happening here ain't
• 33:49
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  Speaker 1: produce a segment because you're the basic premise was, all right,
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  Speaker 1: you know, the one through five isn't going to be
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  Speaker 1: changing in the five most likely Senate seats to flip.
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  Speaker 1: It really is six through ten where you're going to
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  Speaker 1: have a lot of fluidity between now and election day.
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  Speaker 1: And you know what, you guys are right, and so
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  Speaker 1: instead of calling it six through ten, I'm going to
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  Speaker 1: call it the next five in the Senate, all right,
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  Speaker 1: So I'm not touching my you know, my five most flippables.
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  Speaker 1: And I think this is the way we're going to
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  Speaker 1: do this going forward. Every time I do the Senate
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: is that you know, look, I think the unless it's
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a there's a change there, I think the top four may.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Not change given the current environment, right of.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Unstable economy, unpopular war, unpopular presidency. Right, this is a
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: this is an environment that is tilting towards the Democrats.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: The question is is it are we on tilt yet
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: right where everything seems to be going in their direction?
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Or is this more like a twenty twenty two where
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: you know, it was like things tilted slightly to the Republicans,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: but it wasn't the big victories that they were counting on.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: And I think, in fairness, so I think that's what
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: we don't know. I think are we going to have
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: a way Democrats are on their way to having a
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: good night?
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Are they going to have a wave? Are they going
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: to be able to win both the House and the Senate? Right?
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Those are the sort of the next check marks here.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I think, as I've said before, I think the House
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: is cooked. I think that's a done deal for the Democrats.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: They didn't need many think the only question we have
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: is it a single digit majority for the Democrats or
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: is it a double digit majority? As we've learned with
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: this single digit majority that the Republicans currently hold, single
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: digit is tougher for governance. When you get to double digits,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: then suddenly you can you can afford to lose a
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: vote here or there, So there's all Mike caveats aside.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: So we're doing the six or ten. And just a reminder, currently,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: right now, the five seats my top top five five
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: most likely Senate seats to flip North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: and Nebraska was in the fifth slot. Now I'm going
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: to put an asterisk on here with Nebraska because Nebraska
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: the fifth slot is really a.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Three way tie.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: In my head right now, I think it's interchangeable Nebraska, Michigan, Texas.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: So I went ahead and leaned towards Nebraska for a
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: few reasons, and why I put them in the fifth
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: in the first place last week.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: One is when.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: It's a fifty to fifty race, I go with the
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: party that's more likely to have the overall national advantage.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Right now, that's on the Democrats. Osborne not technically a Democrat,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: but certainly running against the Republicans. We still don't know
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: who the nominee is in Texas, and until we have
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: that nominee, I think you cannot fully handicap that race correctly.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: And until we have a nominee on the Democratic side
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: in Michigan, you can't fully handicap that Because I do Look,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: if abdu al Sayed gets.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: The nomination in Michigan, Republican chances probably go up.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: You know, if you're putting this in terms of your prediction,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: market's probably a good ten to fifteen points. I still
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: would slightly favor the Democrats holding the seat simply because
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: of the overall national environment. But boy, that is that
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I think there's no doubt. Suddenly they like the possibility
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: that Republicans could pick off a Democratic held seat skyrockets.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: So that's why for now, because if we're in pre
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: primary mode in some of these places, to me, Nebraska, Michigan,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: in Texas, it's all battling for the fifth spot for now,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: I put Nebraska there. So that means I'm telling you
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: now that we're doing my next five, well the next
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: five right there, six and seven. I'm going Texas over
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Michigan again simply because one is a Republican held, one
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: is Democratic held. And if you believe an environment is
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: heading towards tilts, then it is unlikely that the party
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: in power is going to pick up anything. You know,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: they might hold seats that they don't lose, much harder
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: to pick up something, especially in a state that is
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: a as swingy as Michigan is that definitely seems to
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: move usually move.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: With the country. So if the country is moving to
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: the left, Michigan will move to the left. The country's
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: moving to the right, Michigan will move to the right.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: So for now, it's Texas in the sixth slot, Michigan
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: in the seventh, seventh slot. So then it's the next
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: three and I think you know, I will tell you
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: who my nominees are for for eight, nine and ten,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: because there's seven more Senate seats.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: That I'm putting in the competitive category.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by competitive Senate races that are
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: likely to be decided by single digits, could be high
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: single digits, it could be looking at eight nine, ten points.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: So in that category is Georgia, is Iowa, is Montana.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Two of those threes are open seats Iowa and Montana,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota open seat Democrats, New Hampshire open seat Democrat ruts, Kansas,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: and Florida, which I have they're not yet competitive, but
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: I really do expect both to be a lot more
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: competitive than people are prepared for. We're already seeing some
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: signs with alex Vinman in Florida raising a boatload of money.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: It's you know, we'll see. I'm certainly a skeptic that
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: he can win, but I'm not a skeptic that it'll
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: be competitive. I think Florida is still lighter red than
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: everybody thinks, but I don't think it's light red enough
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: to be flippable even in a situation like this. But hey,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: this economy deteriorates even more than all bets are off.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: So I throw that out there because I want you.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm going to give you what I'm putting
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: in slots eight, nine, and ten here, but I want
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: you to consider the other places that I'm considering that
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I think is in this competitive category. And if you're
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: keeping score at home, I'm putting fourteen Senate seats in
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the largely.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Competitive category between the two parties.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: You know, we'll see if a fifteenth gets in there.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I'm skeptical, but so far that hasn't happened. I think
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: if I were to say there's one race people are
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: sleeping on, potentially it's Minnesota. However, that's a messy Democratic primary.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I think Republicans have a fairly strong new candidate there.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: And Michelle Tafoya, the former ESPN broadcaster. You know, I
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: still view Michelle Tafoya's sort of on campaign one of
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: a two campaign cycle to eventually make it to the
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: US Senate, because remember, there'll be if Amy Klobisher wins
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: the governorship, then there's going to be a Senate seat
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: a special election to fill the remainder of her term
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: at some point.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: So if Michelle Tafoya.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Loses this Senate seaty but is as competitive as I
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: expect her to be, then I think she ends up
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: the front runner going into So that's why I'm spending
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: a lot more time paying attention to a center race
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: that probably is not going to flip. I think Democrats
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: will hold it in in a national environment like this,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: So I don't have it in the top ten, But
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean I don't think it's it's competitive, and
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: it doesn't mean I don't think it's going to be
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: a single digit race. So, without further ado my eight,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: nine and ten, it's Georgia's sitting at eight. As much
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: as I know John Ossoff and I know my friends
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: of the Cook Report have moved it to lean D,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: I think he has earned it, and you know, we
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: still have a MESSI Republican primary. But this is going
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: to be a race that's decided by less than five points,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: So it's hard for me to put it anywhere higher
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: than this. Maybe it does, maybe ASoft pulls away even
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: more either way, Certainly think he's a strong candidate for reelection.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Certainly think that the decision by our friends of Cook
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: report to put it to lean is the correct decision.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: But I put it next eighth most likely to flip,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: and then at nine and ten, I'm going with Iowa
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: at nine.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: And Montana at ten.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: We've got a primary in Iowa, Zach Wallas, Josh turn
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: You have heard both candidates. I don't think there's a
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: ton of difference between the two. One I think leans
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: a bit more in the progressive camp.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: That's Zach Walls.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: He's a little less apologetic about it. Josh Turrek leans
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: into this idea that Hey's he helped overperform in a
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: place that was a bit redder than where Zach Walls
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: has had some success. You know, we'll see. I think
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: the Republicans are certainly seem to be more invested in
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: trying to define Walls as to liberal. They're they're almost
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: counting on Walls to be the nominee, and they're trying
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: to paint him as too liberal for the state. You
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: know that what happens if Turrek ends.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: Up winning the primary.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: So I think we got a long way to go
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: here in Iowa.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: But as you know, I'm.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: A believer, Iowa is the wave test. That's what we're
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: going to find out. And if Democrats win the governorship,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: if they win to or more how two of the
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: three house races they're targeting there, they could win all three,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: but perhaps two of the three. One is open because
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Ashley Hinson's is the republic likely Republican nominee for Senate.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: You could see that in a good Democratic year, iow
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: and Ohio both could end up loo right, and they
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: could get two governors out of those places, two Senate seats,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and that would tell me we had that. That to
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: me is the definition of wave. So Iowa was in
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: the nine slot and then the ten slot. That guy said,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: is it Minnesota? Is it New Hampshire?
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: Johnson?
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: U know, Chris Pappas, we still have former Senator Scott
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Brown also that in that primary Kansas, Shree Davis hasn't
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: said any hasn't gotten in. There's an independent candidate, it's
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: probably still not developed yet Florida. Could they sneak into
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: the ten For now, I'm putting in Montana. I think,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: you know, Montana can go up higher if the independent
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: candidate Seth Bodner gets a gets gets a gets somehow
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: convinces the National Democrats.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: To take a knee.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: If they do, I think Bodner becomes becomes almost as likely,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: if not more likely than Dan Osborne to win as
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: an independent in in in there, I probably I probably
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: if again, if the Democrats take an knee like they're
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: doing in Nebraska and sort of getting out of Osborne's way.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: If that's what happens with Bodner, I think Bodner has
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: a better shot of winning than Osborne. But that isn't
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: where we are yet, and I'm not sure we're going
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: to get there. But Bodner is an interesting candidate we
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: still got, you know, we'll see how you know this
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: the the new nominee, former the US attorney there, We'll
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: see how he still got a long way to go
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: to get to know people. But you know, arguably so
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: does Bodner. But I'm gonna put Montana in the ten
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: slot there so to sum up the next five as
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: we know, and this is where this is where waves
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: get made. This is where if there's a wave, it
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: crashes somewhere in six through ten on my ten most
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: likely flippable seats. So the six through ten, you know,
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: the five, the six through ten Texas, Michigan, Georgia, Iowa,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: and Montana so also receiving votes Minnesota, New Hampshire, Kansas,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: and Florida. Love to hear from you if you think
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I've left out one. Some of you have been poking
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: me about Colorado and the fact that Hickenlooper is going
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: to get a primary challenge from the left. Yeah, I
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: think you know that primary challenger might get thirty five
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: forty percent of the vote, but that won't be enough
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: to win that primary. And I don't expect him to
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: have much of a chance in a problem in general.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: But that is why I don't put that seat in
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: the top fourteen yet.
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean I'm not watching.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: But if you think I've left one out, maybe some
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: of you think Tim Kaine and Virginia. Either way, I'd
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: love to hear from you on the reaction of that list.
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: Ask Chuck, all right, it's Q and a time.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: First question comes from James and he even starts, Hey
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: it's James again. Well hi James, he goes the Texan
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: living in France, Go Mustangs. Appreciate the SMU shout out.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: You recently mentioned the collapse of the Whig Party and
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: the possibility that one of today's parties could disappear. But
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I've noticed in places like East Texas that quote Trump
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: conservatives seem to identify more with Trump than with the
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Republican party itself. Given that, does that suggest Republicans might
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: actually be at more risk of splitting even if their
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: bases larger, or is that just a localized.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: Trend rather than something broader?
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, James, Look, this was a trend for a while.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: That was where you saw the party was more maggot
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Trump than it was Republican. One of the great barometers.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: And it's a question. I'm proud of my old polling
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: partners at the NBC News, Bill McInturff and Jeff Horwitz.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: They we wanted to do this question early. Do you
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: identify This goes all the way back to sixteen and
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: we'd been doing this at NBC. They've been doing it
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: now in a decade and Now other polls have done
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: this too, and I'm glad it should be replicated. Where
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: you simply ask, you know, those that identify as a Republican,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: you identify more with Donald Trump and the Make America
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Great movement, or do you define yourself more as a
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: Republican less you know, non, you know, basically not mega
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: and the number the number has been, you know, essentially
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: it fluctuates with with the with basically the perception of
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: his presidency, right, and when the pre when it's not
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: going well, more people start identifying as Republican. When it
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: appears to be going well, more Republicans start identifying as Mega.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: So it really is part of the cult of personality
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: aspect of things with him. James, So I I in fact,
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: I you know, I think and if he said he
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: wanted to split off, I do think he'd bring a
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: third of the party with him if he chose to
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: do that. I think a year ago he could have
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: renamed the Republican Party the Make America Great Again Party
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: and you wouldn't have had any objections. Inside, you'd add some,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: But my guess is it had been done. It had
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: been it had been changed.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: One of the interesting little things that he hasn't done
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: yet that I'm expecting him to do. So, you know,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: each party has uses, you know, has their big fundraising
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: dinners in each state for the state parties, and so
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: in the Democrats, for decades it was Jefferson Jackson Day Dinners,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: meaning it was in honor of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: sort of foundational people of the Democrats of the Democratic Party. Well,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: of course the modern Democratic Party feels less connected to
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: Jefferson and Jackson in these days. So then it became
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: you know, the rose of you know, Roosevelt Kennedy or
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: do you do Obama Roosevelt Dinners or whatever you call them.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: They've been coming up with different ones. On the Republican side.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: You know, you had Lincoln for years it was just
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Lincoln Day Dinners, and it was always Lincoln, you know,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: because that was their sort of foundational So both parties
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: use their founders. Then you had some parties about fifteen
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: or twenty years ago Lincoln Reagan dinners had Reagan to it.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Some of them just went to Reagan. I've been waiting
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: for Trump to sort of force all these state parties
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: to call them the Trump Reagan Dinners, or the Trump
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Lincoln Dinners, or just the Trump Dinners in some form.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: He hasn't done that yet, but that's just the type
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: of legacy. I think it's one of those things that
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: I hasn't been pointed out to him yet, and as
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: soon as somebody lets him know, hey, you know, you should.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: You know, if you really want to make sure the
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Trump name lives on in the Republican Party after you leave,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: you should, you know, make sure you ask proclamations and
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: all these state parties to rename their annual fundraising dinner
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: after you, Donald J.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Trump.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: So I do think that's you know, that's something, like
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I said, he hasn't noticed that yet, but he will
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: and it'll likely happen. But to go back to you
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: the heart of your question, I just don't think right now,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: I think we're starting to see. You know, for the
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: longest time, Donald Trump seemed to be immune to political gravity,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: or be immune to the.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: Normal rules of politics.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: But you know what we're learning over the last year,
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: he's not immune to this.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: He may be able to jawbone his way out of
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: a disastrous news day and take it to a mediocre
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: news day, but he can't jawbone. He can't gaslight his
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: way out of this economy, and he can't gaslight his
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: way out of the impacted tariffs and the war and
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: all that stuff. So you know, you know, to me,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: we are in lane duck territory.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: He is.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: I think this is a case where he's already got
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: He's already a lame duck president. It just we haven't
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: collectively declared it yet, right it is. I think he's
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: a lame duck president. He has less political capital than
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: he's ever had. He's got more Republicans questioning what he's
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: doing in Iran in ways publicly right now. So I
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: think he's already hit lame duck status. I think we're
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: at the point where the Trump presidency is probably already over.
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: But it the term isn't And what do I mean
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: by over?
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: When you're when you no longer can politically influence the weather? Now, Look,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: he's erratic, so he is willing to do things to
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: be influential.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: That at George W.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Bush when he hit lame duck status, was like, hey,
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm not gonna. You know, he was in
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: due no harm mode, right. Barack Obama at the end
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: do no harm mode. You know, most secretary presidents when
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: they realize they've they've hit that point where they're just
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: there's fatigue out there, whatever you want to call it,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: they get it. Well, we know this guy never gets it.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: So I suspect though, that you're just gonna if you
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: follow this national trend that more than you're not going
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: to see his approval rating drop anymore. But a real
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: sign of Republicans trying to put distance between themselves and
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Trump is when that question I just talked about at
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: the beginning, which is do you identify more with the
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: MAGA movement or with the Republican Party? And I think
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: that Republican Party number is only going to grow and
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: grow and grow, And that to me is the tea
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: leaf to read to figure out, Oh, his influence in
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: the party is waning. Next question comes from Adam b
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: and Davey Florida, and I know he's I think I've
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: had Adam from Davy.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: Davy is in Broward County for those of you wondering.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Hello again, I hate being the Senate, but with the
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: House majority so tight, was our backroom deal for Eric
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Swaller Antony Gonzalez to both resign at the same time
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: as to not influence the balance of the chamber. Tell
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: me I'm wrong, place, You are not wrong, Adam.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: This is not this backroom deal.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: Might have even been in the front room, right like,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they were whispering. Even this is right.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: The numbers are the numbers, I think. The reason Mills,
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: you know it it is once one resigned, the other
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: resigned right like it was. It was more orchestrated, and yes,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: this is all right. The reason you haven't had Republicans
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: say a full on why why both parties leadership has
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: been so has it an even rank and file maybe
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: calling for resignations, but the leadership have been yes, he
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: should not seek reelection. But they're constantly worried about those numbers,
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: right for the margin in the House. So there's no
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: doubt that a one for one made it easier. And
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: it may be how Corey Mills and sure Sir Phyllis
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: McCormick the lone member of Congress who may get kicked
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: out not for sexual misconduct but for financial misconduct. The
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: fact that it's one D and one R also is
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: likely to I think, make it more likely they both
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: go or they both stay but answer is obvious. Yes,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Ray in Arizona Rights, Hey, Chuck in the desert. That
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: is Arizona politics. Your podcast is an oasis. Well, I
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: appreciate that you could have named a dozen moments in
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Trump's presidency that could be made into a VEEP episode.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: It's a slow pitch over the plate. Here's mine, Rubio's shoes.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: My girl that you picked as the next Jeopardy host,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: by the way, would have been fun. Hey, I was
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: always I actually would have loved a shot at auditioning
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: for Jeopardy. I remember is one of the few things
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: I've ever hate. I was like, hey, let me try that.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: I got to.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: I've done Celebrity Jeopardy a couple of times and I
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: had a blast one one time I won, one time
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: I didn't. I lost to Ask Cup. So power to
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: the independent journalists out there.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: I love sc so good shot out there. But you,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: I think you just you.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: You were better on the button. And that's the whole trick.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: It's it's timing of the button. Everybody's got the answers.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Pretty smart group of people up there, but it's a
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: it's the button. I will admit, not many game shows
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: you know that are match game.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: I know what you're thinking, match game.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: Please her, her socks were so tight, right. Never mind
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I as a kid and then in college, right when
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: the game show network started, there is nothing like old
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: reruns of the seventies match game for Uncomfortable triple and
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: quadruple on tendras with all those sort of you know,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: late stage actors from the sixties who were just you know,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: collecting a few appearance checks those game show networks, and
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: they were amazing. So I appreciate the Jeopardy shutout one
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: hundred percent.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: Ken Jennings. You need to sub count me in. Brother.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: Put it this way. My mom would be happy about this, Okay.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: She loves her some Jeopardy, the Rubyo shoe, the whole
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: thing with Trump in the and the shoes. Right. You know,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has a picture in his head of what
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: everybody should look like in certain right. He always talks
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: about central casting, right, whatever it is, you're central casting,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: you're central casting, and.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: That's all part of it.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: So I find it hilarious that these cabinet secretaries are
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: getting these floor seim shoes. And I know them well.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: My father was a floor sheim shoe guy. He bought
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: one pair of year and he wore those suckers still
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: there was all and he'd get him resold once and
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: then you know, it was sort of about every three
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: years he purged a pair. But he had he was
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: flat footed, he'd super white, so it was always ten
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: and a half triple ease. He had to get the
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: triple E and floor Schheim made that triple E dress shoe.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: And it's just I guess that was.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: What all business men in the seventies and eighties. That
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: was the only business shoot you know have, you know,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: you know, within sort of middle class businessman prices, not
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: necessarily the high end stuff.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: Good grief. I mean my memory of those floor site.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Shoes are also super heavy. It's like walking around with
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: weights on your feet. But you're right, it's.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: You know, the shoe thing.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: By the way, Ray, there's so many times you do
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: want to just laugh at Trump and some of the stuff.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: It's the it is, you can't believe how he behaves,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: you can't believe what he does, and then you realize,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: oh my god, the impact is so serious. We probably
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be laughing, but oh my god, isn't this weirdly hilarious.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: That's the Trump presidency in a nutshell. Matthew K longtime listener,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: first time question. I was born and raised in the
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Central Valley in Fresno. My wife worked and lived in Modesto,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: and certainly no sort of way around the Central Valley
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I've learned a lot about the Central
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: Valley back in the day, so I hope, I hope
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: it means I can connect with you on this, Matthew.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: But anyway, Matthew, you right outsiders would characterize the state
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: is quite liberal, but it is actually fairly conservative outside
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: of the big coastal hubs producing the likes of Kevin
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: McCarthy and Devin Nuness.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: Two questions.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: What would it take for Democrats to win these voters
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: over in such an agricultural dominant area too? Do Democrats
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: need to bring back things like the Blue Dog Coalition
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: My former Rep. Jim Costa of California and Joe Donnley
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: of Indiana we're a part of to make the party
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: more competitive in these rural areas. Go Irish, and I
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: look forward to our revenge game this fall. Hey, buddy,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: it circled man. It's November seventh. That game is a
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: South Bend it is the first Saturday after the midterms.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: Timing couldn't be better for my schedule, your schedule, all
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: of our schedules. So I appreciate our friends at Notre
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Name and at NBC because this is an NBC game,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: it will be a prime time trust me, right, say
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: only I think the right now. It's it's likely the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: only ranked team Notre Dame place. Now. I'm hoping my
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: my son's school SMU is ranked by the time they
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: get going, and there may be a couple others in
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: the a SEC that overperform, But this feels like it's
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: Notre and it's probably a game that may matter more
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: for Notre Dame than.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: It does Miami, but who knows.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Who knows what This feels like the biggest game in
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: South Bend between Miami Notre Dame since the infamous game
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: of what you may refer to as Catholics Versus Convicts
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: what I refer to as the Cleveland Gary They shouldn't
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: have the Cleveland Gary did not fumble game, and yet
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: we still almost won.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: That game but for a two point conversion.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: See I'm not so you're asking about you know, look
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: as and hopefully you heard my intro here. And I
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: think the most interesting, one of the most interesting angles
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: of the Hungarian result of the Hungary is the fact
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: that it was a former member of Orbon's inner circle
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: that ends up being the leader of the new opposition.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: The point is is that that was an ability, right,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: he was able to give the permission slip to the
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: rural supporters of Orbon that maybe we're realizing, yeah, this
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: economy sucks. I don't think Orbon knows what he's doing.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Maybe this is politic. He's so obsessed with power and
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: all this corruption and it took so you're asking what
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: would it take for Democrats to get back to being
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: able to succeed in the Central Valley right, to be
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: sort of seen as a friend of the farmer, friend
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: of the egg community in particular. You know, some of
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: them are you know, the cultural issue right, guns turned
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: out to be one of those divisive issues. But I
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: do think this is where the economy kicks in, and
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: this is where immigration. You know, it's in these communities
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: where they're not anti immigrant.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: If it wasn't for.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: Scheduled you know, literally sometimes attiring temporary workers from mex
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Ago or here legally on temporary work permits. So if
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: you're you know, in the near term, I think there
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: isn't it's you know, Democrats are just so afraid of
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: the immigration issue they don't know how to do it.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: But that's where I actually think that there's an opportunity
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: in the Central Valley if they chose to take it,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: you know, whether it's on tariffs, making it about hey,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: he he promised you this, he lied to you, right
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: type of things. So, but who can be the who
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: it is? I think the message is possible. The question
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: is who's the messenger? Right, you brought up some interesting
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: blue dogs, you know, you forgot one that goes back
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: even before Jim Costa. It's Gary Conduct right. Conduct Country
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: is what that area at one time was known as
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: as well right, and he had a very blue dog
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: type of personality, you know, culturally not super conservative, but
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: not super liberal. And you're right, by the way, the
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: same thing to be said about New York.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: New York is considered this deep blue state. But if
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: you get rid of the New York City metro area,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: which is a gigantic part population wise, the rest of
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: the state is Ohio politically right, which means it's got
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: a slight red lean to it. I think what you're
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: trying to say about the Central Valley is true, right,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: It's like, you know, basically all the coastal cities are
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: pretty blue, and then the further east you move, frankly,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: wherever you go, the less liberal it gets. Doesn't mean
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: it's not blue like Palm Springs used to be red,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: not red anymore, but it's certainly less liberal than the
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: coastal areas. But to you know, so, I do think
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: messenger matters right, and who it is, you know, I
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: think you know a military veteran who grew up in
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: the community, you know, leam Panetta walnut farmer always was
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: able to do pretty well when his district stretched into
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: that area. So if you're of the community, if you're
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: of the agribusiness sector, I think it matters as well too.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: But I think the message is easy to come up with.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: The harder thing is the messenger, because the messengers the
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: deeds have been discredited a bit on some of this stuff.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: But I think there's certainly plenty of opportunity, and it
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: just goes to he promised you this and he didn't deliver,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: you know, that's where you would begin that conversation. Next
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: question comes from Brad and he says, be the last
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: question we take for today. Greetings again from Grand Rapids.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate you engaged with listener questions.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: I'm curious what.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: You'd recommend is the best national and international news sources
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: for the average person trying to stay informed. I've relied
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: on outlets like the Washington Post and NPR, but I've
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: noticed some shifts and wonder there are better options out
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: there today. Maybe this could even be a top five segment.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Thanks Brad Well, I appreciate the idea of a top
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: five on that. I'll just tell you my media diet,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: right I. Look, I consume any newsletter that's.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: By a a a.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: Journalist who at least I know plays by the same
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: set of rules, meaning if they've got a bias, it's consistent.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Like I'll take a consistent right leaning bias or left
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: leaning bias, as long as it's consistent and it's predictable
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: and I can understand where they're coming from. Look, I
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: think I think Axios and punch Bowl probably are covering
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: the the sort of the minute to minute minutia of
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: how the white I mean Gaxios is pretty plugged into
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: the White House punch bowl.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: Obviously, Capitol Hill, the Wall Street Journal, I think they're
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: killing it.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: And when it comes to White House coverage, and I think,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: you know, between Axious and the Wall Street Journal, I
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: think you're going to get the best. I think you're
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: going to have the best understanding of what's really happening.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: And I think they're the best sourced in this white
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: house right now, less of the.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: Times, less of the Post.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: Look, the Times is still it is still the dominant
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: place for international news. And it's not even close to
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: just have more people, right, more people on the ground,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: more resources to cover the international stories.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: Look, i'd love.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: To see a newsphere. It's a it's definitely a subscription app.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: I think we're doing a good job on the particularly
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: on the foreign policy hotspots. It's definitely the current strength
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: of newsphare right now. But I'll tell you, let me
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: give you an I want to give them one more
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: shout out to what I use. And and by the way,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: look there's still good reporters at the Post. You know,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: I crap on the on the Post management and leadership,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: and they've gutted parts of the paper that that to
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: me are unforgivable sins, and I will I will be
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: bitter about it for some time. They still have some
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: good national reporters and and their coverage of the agencies,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: and you know, Matt Murray is a good managing editor,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: so I'm I'm still you know, I wouldn't ignore the Post,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: but I think their editorial page is crap. I just
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: do other than the George Will column and David Ignacious column.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think everything else feels like it's written by
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: you know, seventeen year old want to be opinion writers.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what always catches me up when I've
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: like if I've been busy running around town doing a
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: bunch of interviews, I need to quickly catch up Political Wire.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: There's nothing that is just.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: As consistent at always bringing you what you need to know,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: particularly when they have to do with a campaign angle,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: which is what I'm always into. You know, the Political Wire.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: It's free, there's a paid version of it. I would
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: highly recommend subscribing to my friend Taking Goddard's stuff. I mean,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: he's been doing this a long time and it's another
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: place he I think it's it's better than trying to
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: go on Twitter to find out what you've missed in
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: the last hour or two. It's certainly where I would
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: go instead of social media. I hope that helps, all right.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: And with that, man, I was really excited about Paul
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Skins versus Kate Cavali and that opening game for the
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Nats and Pirates, and that was brutal.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: I hope, I hope.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: I can you know after feeling a little bit better
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: about a weekends sweep against the Burgers, but hey, I
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: will confess to something. I want to see the Pirates
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. I've always had a soft spot for
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: the Pirates. Seventy nine Pirates World Series champs are one
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: of my favorite teams I've ever followed. That wasn't my
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: favorite team, if that makes sense. You know, I once
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: that year the Dodgers didn't make it. I just loved
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: Willie Stargel would copy that, you know, I swear to
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: this day I could. You know, I tried to become
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: a switch hitter just so I could do all of
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: the pre at batspins that he used to do. And
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: I'd like to think that I could have could have
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: done a good Willie. So I confess to having a
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: nice soft spot for the pirates on that one. So
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: but hopefully the next time I see in twenty four hours,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: the Nats have an opportunity where I have actually won
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: another series, and with that, I'll see you in twenty
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: four hours