Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Buy/Sell/Hold 2026 Bowman Chrome 10/19/2026

Transcript

Buy/Sell/Hold 2026 Bowman Chrome 10/19/2026 · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards. Very excited to be back. We haven't recorded since Thursday. Today's Monday. That feels like a lifetime for us. And Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: yeah, we've had the itch. We miss it. We love creating stuff for you guys, and excited to be back. Joined here as always by my co host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball. More importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore. Today we got a Bowman Chrome buy sell hold for you guys. We are probably done doing the weekly price checks, at least at the Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: granular level we were before. They've just completely balanced out and has much as we're fine doing it at a certain point, I'm not sure people are gonna care to listen. So I think we're probably just going to go with a weekly buy sell hold. we're gonna add in an AFL buy sell hold kind of in its place, and then not not too worried about filling out the content elsewhere with all the f balls we have up in the air right now. Jeremy, Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: I'll let you kick us off. We got buy sell hold. Which one of these do you wanna lead off with? Jheremy: Well, people want to know who to buy, so we'll go with the buy. And it's somebody we've kind of alluded to in the past where it's like it was we we start talking and we convince ourselves into like, yeah, it's a it is a buy. And now we're telling everybody else it's a buy, and it's Sebastian dos Santos. He's eighteen eight, switch hit, middle infield. Everything we like. had a good DSL in twenty twenty five, had a a a solid complex, like good. eight again, 18 years old this past year, hit 267, had an eleven five OPS. you just go across the board. Like his his contact rate's north of 70% at all three stops between the DSL complex A ball. And I you I mentioned A ball because he did get there. He hit two forty six there in two hundred and twenty five plate appearances this year. ten home runs. The power's coming the the more he's climbing the levels, the more the power's coming, which is Not always the case, but something we really like. And that kind of I'm jumping right into like his splits. Because his three month sample size of like him adjusting to A ball and then flourishing in A ball between what he did in July, June, July, and August was or sorry, July, August, and September was like, you got that final product almost in September. The power started coming, the bat to ball was there. The OPS skyrocketed. It doubled from July to September. there's just a lot of things really to like with him. Switch hit has the juice. We like that we like that he's in St. Louis. St. Louis fans pay well for their players. They they I mean, do you say like they respect the card? But they they do get after it with their prospects. We saw it with Joshua Baez. Even Jesus Baez, and hopefully kind Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: of see that coming up with Daniel Egan too. So Dos Santos as a whole probably should have been in the product last year just as your seventeen year old. This year he kind of fits that tweener mold because he's eight months older than Gomez Renteria Luis Hernandez, but yet a season younger in terms of being in Pro Bowl than Azakar, Dalis, Lorray, De Brun, all those guys. So he's Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: kind of in that middle tier, and I think like Almost like if he were in the complex and not aball, people would be more like think think he'd have more mystique to him, you know? Like more what is he? Right? Jaba: Yeah, if he had just gone bananas in the complex, yeah. Jheremy: Exactly. I mean For sure. Jaba: Which which he would have. I think that's Jheremy: I mean, yeah, definitely. But then it's like, we got to A ball and he has a two forty six batting average. Like again, we don't use batting average to tell us really like even half the tail of the tape there. But people your common people are people who are just passing by looking at prospects. two forty six, not great. But like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: you look at everything else, like it it's all there. Age to level. he's almost three years younger than than your normal A ball player. So w I mean that's that's the buy for the week. What do you have on him? What do you like on him? Jaba: Yeah, I mean I think the thing that stands out to me the most, other than the fact that he has real pop for a guy who's listed as six foot a hundred forty pounds. I don't know how real that weight is. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: But Obviously a smaller slight frame, very thin. If you look at the batted ball data, it really seems like he checks those boxes that you hope for with those kind of smaller guys where it's like, Okay, he's pulling the ball, he's not pounding it into the ground, and Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: whether or not he puts on serious weight, that's the combo that you look for in terms of Kanaguy optimized game power. So the high end physical freak build may not be there like a Silarte or a Serrano, but Jheremy: Right. Jaba: it seems like at eighteen years old against full season pitching, he has Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: figured out how to tap into it, which is something I love. I also love the walk rate. He struck out twenty three, twenty-four percent of the time, which is pretty much bang on average. But he walked what, seventeen percent yes, seventeen percent of the time, has eighteen year old. Jheremy: Yeah. Twenty percent in the complex, so Jaba: And again, this is against real pitchers. This isn't like the the Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: DSL where you can say, okay, yeah, a guy had a 20% walk rate, but most of those walks were probably against guys thrown at like Ricky Jheremy: Spraying the back stop. Yeah. Jaba: Vaughn. yeah, I I like the fact he's a shortstop. From what I've read, it seems like he probably won't stick there, but he Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: also hasn't been moved. just there's real really no big downside. I mean, he didn't Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: start great in single A, but that month he had a six seventy four OPS. And that was Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: his adjustment month and then he immediately went to nine eighty four in August, w thirteen twenty two in September. So even the the down period call at that wasn't it wasn't ghastly. It's not like he was helpless up there. I Jheremy: He wasn't swimming upstream that first month, but then you're like, he's a high school senior in A ball, we're good. So and then he kinda turned it on. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, it's i it's another one where, like you said, if he had been in the complex or the DSL, he'd be Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: a first tier name, but he's not quite in high A like the Azicard Delease Low Rays, where you get the Jheremy: Right. Jaba: okay, this is like a serious not finished product, but more advanced. So I I feel like he could because he and a CN are kinda the two guys that have prices between our two tiers Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: and at least as far as the young DSL-ish AIDS guys go. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: And I understand the upside with a CN, I'm a Mets fan, but at the same time I I think Dos Santos is far safer. Even if Jheremy: Right. Jaba: the CN's exciting. I I I think at twenty seven bucks, Dos Santos has has my money all day. Jheremy: I guess yeah. We never said the what the price actually was where he was kind of trading at right now. So Jaba: Yeah, he's at twenty s twenty seven dollars and twenty two cents. yeah, going into our hold, we got another guy who was moved sorry, what no no no Jheremy: I think yeah. Go for it. I was gonna say you already teased one, you might as well just go right into it and break your heart. But go with Jonio. Jaba: yeah. yeah, but Joni L. Hernandez is our hold. traded from the Padres to the Giants in the Robbie Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Ray deal. AJ Prellor just kinda doing his annual clean out, any prospect with any sort of hype. He had been okay before the trade in the D S L, but he hadn't been desa actually he had a nine fifty eight OPS, which translates to a one twenty eight WRC plus. But once he moved to the Giants, he went bananas. One fifty Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: one WRC plus push an eleven hundred in the OPS column. Just one of those well-rounded DSL guys where it's difficult to find a flaw in the game, even if it is the DSL where you figure some things will come back down to Earth. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: nine seventy-eight OPS hits the ball on the air a lot. Good contact rates. Seven homers, fifty two RBIs. I know RBIs aren't Don't really tell you much, but that is a pretty hilarious number in two Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: hundred and thirty plate appearances. I mean in a full MLB season that's probably breaking one fifty. Twenty Jheremy: Hmm. Jaba: six extra base hits all in, ten steals, so you get a little bit of everything. There's no visible weakness or downside. Six foot one, one eighty shortstop, kinda the i it's again not an alien build, but I feel like there's no issues with that at all. Jheremy: No. Yep. Jaba: Only real issue is he's he's known as a strong defensive shortstop. Unfortunately he's in a system where he's behind Joe Suare and Luis Hernandez, who are, Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know, a top ten guy in the sport and a top fifty-ish. So Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: that's a little tough, but guys will move around. It's not like that'll hold him back by any means. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: walk rate higher than the K rate, seventy five percent content rate. I I I think you could argue that he's at the top of that second tier of our Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: DSL guys. 'Cause obviously as we've said, Angeble, Luis Hernandez and Rentarias stand out as the the horses. But that that glob of twelve guys, and I'm not saying this definitively, again, it's not like we have new data here, but I think Joni L is clearly established in the top half of that list, just with the well rounded play. He's in that seventeen to twenty range with Serrano, Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Frontado, Solarte, Colome, Suarez. I think there's there's no reason to really be buying him right now just because there's no Good news coming, right? You know, the next Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: four months there's just not gonna be any word on him. So the only reason he isn't a buy is because there's no reason his price is gonna go up in the next four months. And I think that there's enough guys who are buys with low prices where you spend the money there and then you come back to him in January or February, especially if these guys dip a little more when draft comes out and everyone's chasing the shiny new toys and does the whole Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: liquidate the old toys, throw to the side. I he'll obviously be stateside in twenty twenty seven. Would love him to be in the complex. Er sorry, would love for him to skip the complex again no reason to really think you would although I guess San Diego's they were aggressive with Solace Jheremy: In San Francisco. Jaba: but I'm I'm not sure that that I'd have to look at Jheremy: San Francisco. Jaba: their their hi San Francisco, sorry. I guess they they put Yoswar they they Jheremy: I mean A ball A Ball's gonna have yeah. Jaba: put Yoswar in the complex. So yeah he he's going to the complex. Jheremy: Yeah. Plus you have Hoswar and Luis in A Ball, right? So really not a spot for him. Jaba: Yeah. You you'd hope Yoswar goes to high A, but regardless, Jheremy: Right. Yep. Jaba: that's that's your shortstop at the single A levels. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: yeah. So I I think again it's it's a positive rating. It's a guy we like and he's a hold just because he'll be the same price in three months and that's when you buy him, that's when you spend the money. For now, just kinda keep eyes on him. If he starts going up, maybe you grab something before Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: things get out of control, but there's no real reason to think that numbers are gonna take off Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: before February, March, even even April. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: or sell The cell breaks my heart, Jeremy. I'll let you take it so I don't bust into tears. Jheremy: Yeah. I will say just with Joni L talked to one of the scouts who signed him two weeks ago and I'm like, What about Joni L? And he's like, I just I love him. And we're we have a pretty open relationship, and he's just like, I love the kid. Wish we still had him. Love him. He's awesome. it was a name I did have circled, and then he got traded, and then the Giants fans jumped all over him because he hit three home runs in ten games with them. So it was like an Immediate dividend. They got something back a right away and he performed and it was all the buzz. And then it goes, well, there goes that one. But he does have his fans out in the market right now as well. People do buy him, people do ask for him, people do chase him. If you can get those base autos like sub fifteen bucks, I would absolutely buy them anytime you can though. Jaba: Hundred percent. Jheremy: Cell is one of the more famous names right now, and that's Wandy Assejan. Of your New York Mets, formerly of the New York Yankees before they cleared house in their front office down in their international side of things, did have a deal with the Yankees. and with that, like there's a lot to like. There are some red flags. He is like the youngest player. See the youngest player with an auto. He has to be, right? Like he Jaba: Probably. Jheremy: he turned seventeen halfway through. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause I I I know he was the youngest of the big signings. You know, ahead of the DSL. Jheremy: Yeah. We'll go with that at least, like Jaba: So he's probably Jheremy: Well Jaba: the youngest. Jheremy: Yeah, youngest player in the DSL has played the entire season as a sixteen year old. Ceiling is right up there with everybody else. Like if if he gets to it, if he peaks, if he hits that top of the peak, like it there's superstar tools there. The Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: power, like as a sixteen year old, again, sixteen years old means you're like a high school sophomore. He turned seventeen, so he could be a really young junior. He was hitting balls upwards of a hundred and sixteen and That's with Woodbat, not BB Corps like we see on the in the high school circuit. Regularly one ten plus. I mean, he had a two forty six. Jaba: Have you ever seen a high schooler hit a ball at one sixteen just Jheremy: probably like in games or in beat P like at the older ages. The best I've seen like Angel Mantos was like one three off a T for us in with a wood bat as a thirteen year old. So Jaba: Sorry, I I I didn't mean to cut off your thought process there. I just figured some sort of framing for people instead of Jheremy: I mean it it it'd be it'd be otherworldly if we saw one of those we'd like your draw your jaw would hit the floor. So like one sixteen is like an alien. he had a two forty six ISO. Like hit three home runs, had seven extra base hits. It was a small sample size of sixty one at bats. I think he was dinged Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: up early and it was a slow start once he did come back. Obviously Jaba: Hamstring. Jheremy: he's the Mets. Mets love their prospects. Doesn't take much for them to explode. We saw it with Mitch Voigt. We've seen it with I I mean just across the board, Nolan McLean, like they do something, they blow up. With that, probably can stay at shortstop, right? Like has a glove, has the arm. If he can, awesome. If you move him over, we're good. Doesn't really matter where he plays if the bat if he stays in the dirt and the bat plays like you think it's going to, like, it's all good. However, there are some concerns with like the contact. He had the injury. I'm not too worried about the injury. Like, players are getting stronger, especially at that age. Like as crazy as it is that he's in Pro Bowl, like we see it all the time stateside, like growth plates are still open when you're sixteen, seventeen years old. You're adding strength, you're getting into a new regiment, you're getting into a pro system. Things happen. Not really worried about that. The contact rate, however, like he did have a high K rate of almost thirty percent in the DSL. And his contact he had a contact rate of sixty one point three percent, which isn't awesome. you're gonna have to kind of monitor those things. Don't know again, maybe they want him to be aggressive and just go show out, right? Like go prove like your worth of money. Go hit your home runs. Definitely something to monitor. He had 83 at bats, plate appearances, such a small sample size to glean anything from it. Anything good or bad is definitely going to be magnified being such a short sample size. that all that said, right, like His base auto is what? Hovering right at $39-ish, $40. Only two so far have gone below that $40 mark. And I mean, it's not gonna take much for him to go up next year, right? Like, does anything in spring training, the Mets media gets on him? If he does anything in I I assume he's gonna be in the complex as a 17 year old. Like That's all you're looking for. You just need a couple things from him. He's gonna be 17 stateside, most likely. And the auto the the base auto's at 40 bucks right now. Hell of a lot better deal than the first one that sold on September 10th for 300 bucks. But I mean you're definitely getting a mex Mets tax on it for sure. He Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: should probably be in that Samil Joni L type range. Jaba: Right. Jheremy: Solarte, like Colomay, like Kolomay's got the name recognition with his dad, kind of one of the top guys coming out, has the electric bat speed. Like, kind of put them all together there. Wandy has the Mets, Wandy has the fact that he was 16. So there's a lot there with it. I mean, 40 bucks, I mean, could sell it, could even hold it. He could lean like a sell hold type, I think, just because at the end of the day, he is a met. And like, we don't like to sell the big market guys right now when it feels like you're closer to the bottom. I don't know how much cheaper he can get. I presume he'll probably continue to drop a little bit because he does get traded at like such a high volume as well, being a Met guy. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: what do you you got anything there? I don't I kinda rambled. I don't know if I hit on everything or if you have anything you agree, disagree with. Jaba: Yeah. I I I mean I I think the general sentiment is in line with yours. It's not a we're selling because we don't think he's good, it's a we're selling because He's tantalizing, but is he twice the price of the Joni El's and Dos Santos tantalizing? No. so again, it's one where the sell is more just relative to the peers in Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: the product. It's not saying fire sale him. It's just your money's probably better spent if you buy two of one of the other tier two guys than one of C in. But with that being said, I I do think he has that excitement factor from From everything I read this year, it sounds like Ellian Pena isn't the greatest athlete. Sounds like the shortstop defense is okay, but it's more being carried by him being an intelligent baseball player than a good athlete, so it sounds like he's probably not gonna stick there. Obviously, ways away from the majors, but Lindor's defense is kind of falling off. I think he's off a shortstop in a year or two. So there's no reason to think that if if a CN can stick at shortstop, there's really no reason to think that he would get moved or you know, not be considered a long term solution there if he can play there because by the time he's getting to the majors, Lindor's not gonna be ready. Ellian Pena is probably not gonna be a shortstop, and it's like one of those things where it's like teams don't draft for need. Things work their things Jheremy: Right. Jaba: work themselves out. So I do think he'll have every opportunity to stick at shortstop, at least with the way things look now. But yeah, he's he's a good player. It's more just the fact that he's alone in that forty ish dollar. range where you're probably a bit safer buying even buying one auto of two different tier two guys than sinking that money into one Wandia seeing card. We do like it's just the way that the pricing is kind of structured today. Jheremy: Yeah. It's not like a Wandy thing, it's just I'd rather allocate forty dollars to get two of somebody else. Like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, it's just all about maximizing that money. It's not necessarily is this a good or a bad use of money. It's more just what is the best use of the money. And I think Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: we've we've said it before, but again that's that's the focus here. Usually the guys who are sells aren't guys that we don't like. It's just Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: guys where we think that you could spend X amount of money elsewhere and get more for your dollar. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: But yeah, with that being said, do you have anything before we wrap up or Jheremy: no. Jaba: Alright. Well, thank you guys for listening. We're glad to be back in our groove and we'll talk to you in a little bit with an Arizona Fall League update. Thank you guys for listening as always, and let's go, Matt's. See you guys.