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Jeremy Hutton: Milford Asset Management Equities Analyst ahead of Trump's 'Liberation Day' · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: Jeremy Hutton from Milford's with Near the Rose Garden, nine
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  Speaker 2: am tomorrow our time. It's all on for young and old.
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  Speaker 2: What are you looking for in this Trump announcement, Jeremy.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Ryan. So financial markets have been very
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  Speaker 3: focused on this tariff event, and you're right nine am
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  Speaker 3: tomorrow morning. I think a lot of investors and traders
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  Speaker 3: will be glued to their screens. But from a New
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  Speaker 3: Zealand perspective, you know, there's still a little bit of
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  Speaker 3: hope that we can fly under the radar. We won't
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  Speaker 3: be able to avoid the universal tariff, which is one
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  Speaker 3: limb that seems very likely to come in. That will
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  Speaker 3: be negative for some of our key exports into the US,
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  Speaker 3: so think wine, meat and some dairy products. But then
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  Speaker 3: on the reciprocal tariffs, that's another limb. We do have
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  Speaker 3: very low tariffs of US imports into New Zealand, so
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  Speaker 3: that's a theoretical tick in the good box for US there.
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  Speaker 3: And then a third limb so does seem very fixated
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  Speaker 3: on US trade deficits now the US does have a
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  Speaker 3: small trade deficit with New Zealand, but again it's not
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  Speaker 3: too bad, especially compared to some other countries like China,
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  Speaker 3: So maybe also a small tick for US there. But
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  Speaker 3: of course, these things are moving around a lot, and
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  Speaker 3: we're just gonna have to wait and see for tomorrow morning.
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  Speaker 2: Global markets have been moving around a lot, although they've
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  Speaker 2: settled down a bit this week. How's the inxet expen today.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, global markets in general have had to sell off
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  Speaker 3: on this tariff news uncertainty though, you're right, you know,
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  Speaker 3: a small rally this week, but you know, to some extent,
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  Speaker 3: markets have been assuming the worst news for now with
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  Speaker 3: this uncertainty, and you know, they're they're seeing these tariffs
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  Speaker 3: as stagflationary, so you know, in other words, that's very
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  Speaker 3: low economic growth and potentially inflationary as as prices could
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  Speaker 3: rise as well, and markets do hate this stagflationary environment.
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  Speaker 3: They're getting none of the interest rate cuts that they
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  Speaker 3: are expecting at the start of the year, and also
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  Speaker 3: some potentially lower earnings from companies going forward, so it
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  Speaker 3: could be a bit of a bit of an ugly situation.
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  Speaker 3: And you know, as a response to this, you know,
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  Speaker 3: the tech heavy NASDAK that's off around twelve percent from
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  Speaker 3: the February highs. You know, the SMP is off eight percent,
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  Speaker 3: but the Injidex has feared a little bit better. It's
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  Speaker 3: only it's only our five and a half percent. And
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  Speaker 3: that doesn't make sense given, you know, the relative lack
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  Speaker 3: of focus that these tariffs have had on New Zealand.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, let's hope it stays that way. Hey, although
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  Speaker 2: maybe not for Fisher and Pike with healthcare. They're quite
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  Speaker 2: exposed to America, aren't they.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, Fisher and pikeal healthcare that appears the most impacted
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  Speaker 3: from the New Zealand the injetex companies, and that share
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  Speaker 3: price is down around eleven percent since all the tariff
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  Speaker 3: news began. And effectively, this is Fisher and PIKEL. They
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  Speaker 3: you know, they're manufacturing a decent amount of product in
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  Speaker 3: Mexico which they then export into the US. And this
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  Speaker 3: is exactly the type of business that has been right
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  Speaker 3: in Trump's firing line. He's trying to reshure this type
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  Speaker 3: of business. A few counts to that, though. You know,
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  Speaker 3: Fisher and PIKEL is a fantastic business and it operates
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  Speaker 3: in a very defensive sector, which is medical devices. So
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  Speaker 3: they do have a few mitigants they can go to,
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  Speaker 3: and they have released the market already that they think
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  Speaker 3: they can offset around half of the cost of these tariffs,
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  Speaker 3: mainly by just switching their exports to or from New
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  Speaker 3: Zealand from Mexico. So they do have a few options.
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  Speaker 3: But remember Fisher and pikel it is our largest listed company.
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  Speaker 3: It's around fifteen percent of the INSIDEX index, so you
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  Speaker 3: know these tariffs can still have a material impact on
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  Speaker 3: the local market.
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  Speaker 2: Here, nice one, Jeremy Nice heavy on the show as
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  Speaker 2: always Jeremy houton Milford Asset Management.
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