Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 187 - 12/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 187 - 12/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 187 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Friday, our work week comes to an end the weekend
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  before Christmas. It's the holiday season here.
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  It's actually snowing in in Massachusetts where I am on the
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  outskirts of Boston. Really the first snowfall we've
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  seen all year. So it's a good night to stay in
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  indoors. I don't know, order some pizza,
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  pick up some food and and sweat some games together.
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  What do you guys say? We got a big bowl game here for
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  tonight. I have a 5 pack of sweats for
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  you today guys, including a play on Notre Dame in Indiana.
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  The big one here tonight at 8:00 to kick off the College Football
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  Playoff. Got 2 bets in college hoops,
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  including one big game and one small game.
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  I got to play in the NBAA Bilo total opportunity in the NHLI
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  got to play on a total as well here.
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  So we got a big 5 pack pretty much hitting on all the
• 1:20
  different sports. And then going into the weekend,
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  I have three NFL plays for you, including two plays for
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  tomorrow. If you didn't know, there's two
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  NFL games tomorrow. Tomorrow's like just, I don't
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  know, maybe the greatest football day of all time.
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  You have Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore in the NFL
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  and then in college you got SMU, Penn State, Clemson, Texas,
• 1:40
  Tennessee, Ohio State. So literally from noon until
• 1:44
  when's last game, 8:00 till 11:00, you got basically 11-12
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  hours of pro and college football.
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  So again, if you're snowed in like me, we're in for a good
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  weekend here. Hopefully guys.
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  So a lot to get to on today's podcast and then also want to
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  invite everyone, remind everyone on Sunday to tune into the
• 2:02
  rhythm live stream. Myself and James Santor 11:00 AM
• 2:05
  Eastern Time live on Twitter, streaming live on X.
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  We breaking down all the games. Might be adding a few more plays
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  here. I only have one place so far for
• 2:13
  Sunday, so I'm going to give it a couple days here and see how
• 2:17
  these lines develop. But you should have some
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  additional plays if you're looking for them and some late
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  model predictions on the stream for Sunday.
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  So hope to see you guys there. You can just follow me at Josh
• 2:27
  under score insights on Twitter and we'll go live right at 11.
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  And then also, I want to remind everyone for tomorrow, there's
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  all these college games. I have some liens.
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  I'm going to give it a little bit more time here.
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  But I did want to mention check out my sharp report, which I
• 2:40
  rate for vson.com every single day.
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  That'll come out around probably 10:00 AM tomorrow and maybe add
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  some add some plays here. There's some games where there's
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  a good rhythm edge on some of these dogs, but then also some
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  of these dogs are kind of trendy, which gives me a little
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  bit of apprehension. So let's just see how the this
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  late action pours in. But again, you can read the
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  sharp report for tomorrow. And as always, you can follow
• 3:00
  any best bets that I make from the from the juice Reel app
• 3:04
  where you can just follow go to the go to the social tab, click
• 3:08
  find juicer search ASG under score podcast.
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  I also tweeted out every single day if you want the link there
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  as well. So a big weekend ahead and a big
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  Friday night for tonight. Now looking back to her last
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  night, sadly all good things must come to an end.
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  We had a 2 day winning streak going last night, 2 and 4 -, 2.3
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  units. Now we did have a great hit with
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  the Chargers. They are down at half, kind of
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  that crazy kick. I kind of heard of that rule
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  before, but you never see it. Basically, when there's a
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  penalty at the end of the first half, there's no time left to
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  get the free kick there, which ended up obviously helping the
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  Chargers because they were down at the time, but Chargers roared
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  back. It was a little bit of a fade.
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  The trendy dog play desperation spot.
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  So glad to see the Chargers come through.
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  We also got the Celtics Bulls under 241 1/2.
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  That thing kept getting hit and up, sailing under.
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  Unfortunately, though, Georgia Southern, the quarterback on
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  Georgia Southern, man, they end up losing 3126.
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  Did you guys see their quarterback?
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  He had four interceptions. Come on man, maybe you just
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  throw 2 picks and we probably win that game.
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  But he kept turning it over. Someone was brutal.
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  Quentin Johnston came up short in terms of our player prop.
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  And then in college hoops, the disappointing one to me was
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  Lindenwood because Lindenwood, we money aligned them and at the
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  time they were -2 1/2 and they ended up getting up closing at
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  -3 or even -3 1/2. And remember, they were four and
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  O at home. Tech was O and six on the road.
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  Lindenwood loses the game, So beat the closing line and lose.
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  That was a tough one. And then South Dakota also came
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  up short against Utah Tech. So I really the Lindenwood one
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  kind of help really hurt us from at least a three and three
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  night. Pretty much you just drink a
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  little juice. But either way, guys, let's see
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  we can get back at it today and post a winning day, which is
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  always the goal. So let's start off with the
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  biggest game of the night. Now I I say that because it's
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  the biggest game in terms of, you know, playoff implications.
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  This is the College Football Playoff but also, you know, I
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  want to make sure when I say like this is a big game, it
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  doesn't mean you go bet 5 units on it or a 20 unit bomb.
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  It's flat betting, betting to wrist, not betting to win one
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  unit every single time. So always remember that.
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  But I'm excited to sweat this one.
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  I do have a couple people I know who live in the state of
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  Indiana, so Indiana and obviously South Bend, Notre Dame
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  and could be snowy tonight. Could be could be a great game
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  here to watch and hopefully to bet on and win some money on
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  Let's set the stage and I'll give you my bet for tonight.
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  So going into it, obviously the College Football Playoff Indiana
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  comes in 11 and one they're the 10 seed.
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  Just crush Purdue 66 to nothing in the regular season finale
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  easily covered as a 29 point home favorite.
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  Meanwhile, Notre Dame 11 and one remember they lost to NIU early
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  in the year. That was their only loss, but
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  they're the the seven seed just took down USC 4935.
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  They covered as a 7 point Rd. favorite.
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  So look at this one. I didn't have much of A opinion
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  or lean from a data perspective on this game because we're
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  pretty much sitting Notre Dame -7 1/2 and it was pretty much
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  staying 7 1/2. But then over the last 24 hours,
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  you've really seen this line fall toward Indiana.
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  And you guys know me by now. Or at least if you don't know
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  me, I love late, late, smart money coming in because
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  obviously all moves are meaningful because lines are
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  being adjusted based on respective money coming in.
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  But it's really that last 24 hours game day where if you see
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  movement, I want to be with that move because that's when limits
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  get raised and the biggest bets come in.
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  So this game open Notre Dame 7 -. 7 1/2 and this is a true home
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  game at South Bend Notre Dame Stadium.
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  Now the public is leaning toward the Irish.
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  Notre Dame is getting 55% of spread bets at DraftKings, 63%
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  of spread bets at Circa. However, even though majority of
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  tickets are on Notre Dame, again, it's sat basically 7 1/2.
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  Got down to seven at some shops little bit earlier in the week.
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  But today you saw a lot of books get down to 6 1/2 and that was
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  really meaningful to me because again, Publix on Notre Dame.
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  Yet this line is always been moving toward Indiana.
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  Tells me smart money here guys is Indiana the points?
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  That's where I'm going try to get a + 7.
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  Wait it out, shop around. Most books are 6 1/2, but there
• 7:05
  are maybe a couple sevens out there.
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  But anyway, looks like some reverse line movement public
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  Notre Dame lines going to Indiana, especially that late
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  movement, which is also important.
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  So not only is the line going toward Indiana, but they also
• 7:17
  have some great contrarian value.
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  This is a extremely heavily back game tonight.
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  You know, you're looking at ticket counts close to an NFL
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  game, obviously because it's Notre Dame.
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  It's a college ball playoff game, prime time, 8 O clock on
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  ESPN or ABC. I'm most curious if you know,
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  they're on both channels, where do you go to?
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  Do you watch it on ABC or ESPN? Maybe, maybe we should do a test
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  case on that. Anyway, not that that matters at
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  all, but Indiana contrarian in a heavily backed game, they're
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  only getting 45% of spread bets at DraftKings, 36% of spread
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  bets at Circa. So just from the standpoint of,
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  and you see this in the NFL, wanting to go contrarian and
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  heavily backed games with a ton of public money, There's so much
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  public action on this game laying it with Notre Dame that I
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  want to go the other way and go Indiana.
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  So even if you take away the line move going toward Indiana,
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  just the fact that heavily bet prime time, 8:00 Friday night,
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  it's on every bar in America, majority is on Notre Dame.
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  So just from a contrarian standpoint, I want to be on the
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  Indiana side. Now let's layer in a few more
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  things. One thing I really like about
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  Indiana is that at Circa, which again prides itself on taking in
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  smart money, the Hoosiers are only getting 36% of spread bets,
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  but 70% of spread dollars. So a really good low bets,
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  higher dollars, sharp contrarian bet split tells me a lot of the
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  wise guys. They're out in Vegas like the
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  points with Indiana. Now Indiana also has a dog who
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  can score system match play. They're averaging 43 points a
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  game, so keep pace or backdoor cover.
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  Also a bit of a correlative betting play because they're
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  around a touchdown dog and kind of a low total 50 1/2.
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  Now again, 50 1/2 and the NFL is very high 50 1/2 in college,
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  really not that high here you easily see totals, you know
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  closer to 60 or more. So add it all up your guys I'm
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  going to take the points with Indiana again shop around try to
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  find a 7 if not, you can probably get a really reduced
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  juice 6 1/2. The other thing I like with
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  Indiana is a good rhythm edge because rhythm the model here
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  predicts Indiana +4. So that's a good sign here that
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  the high data analytics from our friends at Rhythm are telling us
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  this is probably closer to a field goal game than it is a
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  touchdown game. So that's my play.
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  Indiana +7, if not 6 1/2. Again, try to get the seven.
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  Do all you can to get it. But then also in terms of the
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  total, keep an eye out for the under here.
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  I lean pretty hard to the under. You saw this total open at
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  around 51 1/2. It's now been bet down to 50
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  1/2. And DraftKings looks pretty good
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  to the under. 51% bets, 69% dollars.
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  Circa also looks good to the under 62% bets, 85% dollars.
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  And then also weather could really play a factor here
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  because it's going to be very cold.
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  Rudy's going to have to wear some Under Armour under his
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  jersey tonight. But mid 20s ten mile per hour
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  winds, gusts up to 15 mph and you might even get some snow.
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  Also to other supplementary factors here, both these teams
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  are kind of slower in terms of pace of play.
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  Indiana's 81st in the country. Notre Dame is 115th in terms of
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  pace and there's only 134 teams. So both at the back end and to
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  the top six defenses in college football, Notre Dame only gives
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  up about around 13 points a game.
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  Indiana gives up about 15 points a game.
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  So we have Notre Dame third best scoring defense, Indiana 6th
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  best. So if you like that under, I
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  totally get it. I was looking at some rhythm
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  system matches. It was basically right at 50 or
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  49.8. So I would certainly lean under
• 10:41
  there if you're making me pick a side of the total.
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  But my one play here, guys, pretty much open the current and
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  especially game day and late. You've seen this line break
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  toward Indiana. So I'm going to take the points
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  of Indiana here. Let's go Hoosiers.
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  Let's do it for Bobby Knight. Let's do it for Jimmy Chitwood.
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  Let's go Hoosiers here plus 7. Can you cover the game?
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  Can you cover the number? Win the game, doesn't matter to
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  me, lose by 6 or less, let's go Indiana.
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  Now over to some college basketball for tonight.
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  I got a big game and I got a very small game.
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  So let's talk about the small game first.
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  Added game, extra game. This is 7:00 tonight game
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  306-625-3066 to six. And you guys know the the drill
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  at this point. Added game, extra game.
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  We like to look at the line movement because the public
• 11:26
  doesn't care about Longwood and NC Central tonight, but wise
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  guys do. And I know that based on the
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  adjustment to the spread. So going into it, Longwood is 10
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  and three. They are facing NC Central, who
• 11:39
  is 6 and 8, and what we've seen here is just sharp movement
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  toward Longwood. Longwood open this game -2 1/2
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  on the road. They've now been bet up to -3
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  1/2 and I even see a couple shops juiced, maybe even going
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  to four. So it's all been all one way
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  movement in favor of Longwood. Now, aside from the added game
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  extra game line move, we have Ken Palm predicting that
• 12:01
  Longwood should win by 1. So he's got him ranked higher,
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  one 94th versus 275th rhythm. This line is a little bit closer
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  to, I believe either two or three.
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  So of course, at this point it's a money line play for me.
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  I was able to get Longwood -155 at BET MGM.
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  Shop around here, of course, because you want to get as low
• 12:21
  of a juice number as you can. Some books are closer to like
• 12:23
  160, but I'm going to bank on Longwoods defense.
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  They rank 149th and adjusted defense this year versus 312 for
• 12:31
  NC Central. I forgot to I, I said that
• 12:34
  wrong. Rhythm has actually Longwood
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  -3.4 so that that's even better for us.
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  Now. Longwood's only giving up 67
• 12:41
  points a game versus 73 for NC Central.
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  Longwood has hopefully an advantage on the boards,
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  averaging 37 rebounds a game versus 32 for NC Central.
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  Longwood, by the way, is 2 and O on the road and I was looking at
• 12:55
  their game log recently and they've they're ten and three.
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  They're playing very well, but they had a loss two games ago
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  and guess who that loss was to NC Central at home.
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  They lost 77 to 70 to NC Central.
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  So now they are going to go to NC Central.
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  And why do I bring that up? Because it's a revenge play.
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  I think if you're Longwood, you're 10 and three, you're
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  having a good year. You know, one of your only
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  losses recently was to this team.
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  So I feel like from a motivational standpoint,
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  hopefully you got some motivation to to avenge that
• 13:25
  loss on your homecourt. Now do it on their home
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  homecourt. But an added game, extra game
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  lines been consistently going in favor of Longwood.
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  Again, Ken Palms got them by 1. Rhythms got them by 3.4.
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  This is a money line play for me.
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  Let's get some revenge. I'm on Longwood, the Lancers or
• 13:41
  two and O on the road. Let's make that 3 and O Longwood
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  -155 money line play at Bet MGM. That's what I got the big one
• 13:49
  tonight, Dayton in Cincinnati. Now this is a great matchup and
• 13:55
  two really good teams here. Cincinnati 8 and one, they're
• 13:58
  ranked 19th in the country. Dayton is 10.
• 14:00
  And two, they're ranked 22nd in the country.
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  Now technically this is a neutral site game, but it's
• 14:06
  basically a home game for Cincinnati.
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  The game is going to be played at the Heritage Bank Center,
• 14:09
  which is in Cincinnati, OH. It's not their true homecourt,
• 14:14
  but it is basically, you know, in their in their city.
• 14:18
  So I would imagine a lot of fans here will be cheering for Cincy
• 14:21
  in this one. This is kind of a buy low, sell
• 14:23
  high play for me. So if you look at the way this
• 14:25
  one opens, Cincinnati open this game as high as a 3 1/2 point
• 14:28
  favorite, technically neutral site, but again, basically a
• 14:32
  home game. The line got all the way down to
• 14:34
  -2 1/2 and some books are still 2 1/2.
• 14:37
  But I'm starting to see all the juice go back towards Cincinnati
• 14:40
  -2 1/2 -, 115 looking like it's getting back up to three.
• 14:44
  So my angle here is I want to buy low, basically, you know,
• 14:48
  low watermark money line Cincinnati because I feel like
• 14:50
  there was a dip and now there's an adjustment.
• 14:52
  We're getting back kind of to where this line opened.
• 14:55
  So I money line Cincinnati -150 to win the game.
• 14:58
  That was either Caesars or Bet MGM.
• 15:00
  Both are offering right now. But here's what I like.
• 15:04
  Ken Palm's got him winning by three.
• 15:06
  Now, if you look at some Ken Palm numbers here in analytics,
• 15:11
  he's got him ranked 25th in the country versus 31st for Dayton.
• 15:15
  And the big advantage here, Dayton has the better offense,
• 15:17
  but defensively, you have Cincinnati ranked 10th in the
• 15:21
  country versus 74th for Dayton. We have Cincinnati only giving
• 15:27
  up sixty points a game versus 67 for Dayton, an advantage here on
• 15:31
  the boards, especially offensive rebounding, 36% versus 30%.
• 15:36
  And then the other angle that I like, I'll mention the bet split
• 15:39
  here first too, but DraftKings, only 53% of bets are on Cincy,
• 15:44
  but they're taking into account 72% of dollars.
• 15:47
  So good low bets, higher dollars.
• 15:49
  Bet split here in favor of Cincinnati, basically public
• 15:52
  undecided, but the three out of $4.00 there on the Bearcats.
• 15:56
  Then I'm going to put a little stock into this.
• 15:57
  The conferences that they come from, the Big 12 for Cincinnati
• 16:00
  versus the Atlantic 10, the A10 for Dayton.
• 16:03
  So kind of a stronger strength of schedule in terms of who they
• 16:06
  play and who they face. But Ken Palms got him winning.
• 16:10
  We have a bunch of statistical advantages and I also have a
• 16:13
  system match. I don't have it in front of me,
• 16:17
  but it's 2 ranked teams take the favorite.
• 16:19
  That's been pretty good historically.
• 16:20
  That also matches with Cincinnati.
• 16:22
  So again, technically a neutral court, but I'm going to play the
• 16:25
  Bearcats here to hopefully win this game in basically a very
• 16:28
  friendly arena. I'm on Cincinnati money line at
• 16:31
  -150. Now over to the NBA.
• 16:35
  One game caught my eye tonight. There's only three games
• 16:37
  overall, but Milwaukee Cleveland now we've seen a big move here
• 16:42
  toward the Cleveland Cavs. This again is the first game
• 16:45
  since the NBA Cup. So both teams are very well
• 16:48
  rested. We saw a big move.
• 16:49
  The early look at on Cleveland was as low as like -4 1/2.
• 16:53
  That quickly got up to -8 now cleveland's -9 Now big reason
• 16:57
  why this line's going to Cleveland is Damian Lillard is
• 16:59
  ruled out for this game. So obviously he has a big impact
• 17:03
  on the on the spread. But I've seen the total really
• 17:06
  come crashing down here and I want to buy low and take this
• 17:09
  over. I think it's it's fallen too
• 17:10
  much and to a point where it's now created value to buy low and
• 17:13
  go over. So when Lillard was expected to
• 17:16
  play this total was as high as 23228.
• 17:19
  It's all the way down now to 220 1/2 and some books are are 221
• 17:25
  1/2, but there are a couple 220 1/2's out there.
• 17:27
  I bought low and bet Milwaukee, Cleveland over 220 1/2 that's
• 17:32
  available right now at both FanDuel and ESPN bet.
• 17:35
  But here's the thing, rhythm and mention this or my buddy James
• 17:39
  mentioned this on the the live stream on Sundays.
• 17:43
  But rhythm does a really good job of it gives you the
• 17:45
  opportunity to basically adjust the number if a star player is
• 17:48
  out. So they bake it into the cake
• 17:50
  and you can do your own, you know, testing basically on hey,
• 17:53
  no, no Jason Tatum. How does that affect the spread?
• 17:55
  No Damian Willard, How does that affect the total?
• 17:58
  So with Willard not playing, this has already been readjusted
• 18:01
  and the readjustment for rhythm is 223.7.
• 18:06
  So again, 220 1/2 buying loan going over looking at basically
• 18:10
  a three-point edge to play that over.
• 18:13
  Now these teams have played twice this year.
• 18:15
  Cavs won both 116 to one 14114 to 113.
• 18:19
  Both obviously would fly over that number.
• 18:21
  Cleveland is number 9 in terms of pace, so they get up and down
• 18:24
  the court. Cleveland is also number one in
• 18:27
  terms of offensive efficiency, so they can score at will.
• 18:30
  Milwaukee is number 10 offensive efficiency, so they can score 2
• 18:34
  even though again, no Lillard tonight.
• 18:36
  But the little cherry on top here at the end, three over.
• 18:39
  Referees Curtis Blair, Brent Bernanke and Jason Goldenberg,
• 18:43
  they are they are all between 51 and 55% to the over.
• 18:48
  So hopefully we get a lot of fouls, make your free throws,
• 18:51
  stop the clock, let's hit our threes.
• 18:53
  But again, when when I saw this thing just absolutely plummet,
• 18:57
  I'm thinking to myself, hey, when, when did the sharp say to
• 18:59
  themselves, it's fallen too much and now creates value to buy low
• 19:02
  and go over what looks like that number is 220 1/2.
• 19:06
  So I bet Milwaukee, Cleveland over 220 1/2 now.
• 19:10
  Hockey play for you. Late night game tonight, 10:00
• 19:13
  Eastern Time. Got the ABS and the Anaheim
• 19:15
  Ducks now. Big line here toward Colorado
• 19:19
  going into this one. You have obviously a much better
• 19:22
  team here with the Avalanche than you do Anaheim.
• 19:25
  Although I must say Anaheim is not as bad as they have been in
• 19:27
  recent years. They're 1214 and 4.
• 19:31
  Colorado is 19 and 15, but big line here toward Colorado.
• 19:35
  They open like -220 they're all up to like -230 -, 240.
• 19:39
  So it's a huge number. I don't want to lay that huge
• 19:41
  number. I also, you know, don't want to
• 19:43
  play Anaheim because, again, feels like a Colorado win here
• 19:47
  just based on the number. But I did see some value on
• 19:50
  hopefully the under. And I noticed one thing with the
• 19:53
  total. It's 6 1/2 everywhere, but every
• 19:56
  single book is really juiced up to the under.
• 19:58
  So every book is basically painted as my buddy Patrick
• 20:01
  Maher likes to call it. I think it's a perfect way to
• 20:03
  describe it. When we look your out live odds
• 20:05
  page and every book is basically painted, which means they're all
• 20:08
  the same, in the same direction. All painted 6 and half under
• 20:13
  -115 -, 120. So that tells me liability
• 20:16
  under. So I'm going to go under 6 1/2.
• 20:18
  I got under 6 and half -115 at Caesar's at DraftKings.
• 20:23
  Really good bets split to the under 77% bets but 97% dollars.
• 20:28
  Did you know the Ducks are the second best under team in the
• 20:31
  NHL? They're nineteen nine and two to
• 20:34
  the under 68%. They're 10, five and one to the
• 20:37
  under at home. The only better under team is
• 20:39
  when the Nashville Predators, they're 21 and 11.
• 20:42
  But Anaheim kind of doesn't score a lot. 2.4 goals per game.
• 20:46
  And if you look at the goal tenders here, it doesn't seem
• 20:49
  like they're that good. Like Scott Wedgwood on the year,
• 20:52
  he's expected to start for the ABS tonight 4 four and one 2.77
• 20:56
  goals against nine O 4 save percentage.
• 20:59
  But since he was acquired in a trade with to come to Colorado,
• 21:03
  he's been three and two with a 1.9 two goals against a 931 save
• 21:08
  percentage. So he's been really good since
• 21:10
  he's joined the ABS. Then you have John Gibson
• 21:12
  veteran here going for Anaheim 5 four and one goals against
• 21:16
  average of three. But a nine O 9 save percentage,
• 21:19
  which you know isn't bad if as long as you're above 900, you're
• 21:21
  you're probably a decent goalie. But with that juiced under good
• 21:25
  bet split Ducks have been fantastic to the under.
• 21:28
  Hopefully we can get six goals or less in this one.
• 21:31
  How about a four to two game? How about a three to two game?
• 21:35
  Just don't go three to three and force overtime because then
• 21:37
  we're guaranteed to lose. But I'm going to take a shot on
• 21:40
  Colorado, Anaheim under 6 1/2. And that's -115 at Caesars.
• 21:45
  Now, couple bets for this weekend.
• 21:48
  First one, let's look at the one O clock game tomorrow.
• 21:50
  Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs.
• 21:53
  Now, this one has been all over the place because this game
• 21:56
  opened around -3 1/2 - 4 as high as -4 for Kansas City at home.
• 22:03
  And then when Patrick Mahomes got hurt and we didn't know
• 22:05
  whether he'd play or not, the line flipped all the way over to
• 22:09
  Houston -3 I want to say I might have seen a Houston -3 1/2, but
• 22:14
  it totally flipped toward Houston.
• 22:16
  But now Patrick Mahomes has practiced fully.
• 22:19
  He's expected to play. The lines now flip back to
• 22:22
  Kansas City -3 1/2. Imagine holding a Houston -3 -,
• 22:27
  3 1/2 ticket right now. You would not be happy.
• 22:29
  But anyway, I'm going to take the points with Houston.
• 22:32
  One thing I noticed as this lines got adjusted back toward
• 22:34
  Kansas City is that it's Kansas City -3 1/2.
• 22:38
  But all the juices on the Houston side, Houston plus 3 1/2
• 22:42
  -, 115 - 120. So that tells me to make you pay
• 22:45
  more expensive price to take the points with Houston.
• 22:47
  Also between now and Saturday at 1:00, maybe we see this line
• 22:51
  fall to three if Houston loses by three most common margin of a
• 22:54
  victory. I want to be able to cover that
• 22:56
  number with the hook instead of push a three.
• 23:00
  So I jumped on the plus 3 1/2 with the Texans.
• 23:03
  I got it at -115 at I believe ESPN bet, but a good bet split
• 23:07
  here on Houston, 54% bets, 65% dollars.
• 23:11
  At DraftKings on the spread, circa 45% bets, but 76% dollars.
• 23:17
  So both really good bet splits, low bets, higher dollars in
• 23:20
  favor of Houston. Also Mahomes ankle again, he's
• 23:24
  going to play. He's a warrior, great
• 23:26
  quarterback, but how effective will he be?
• 23:29
  CJ Stroud, by the way, as a dog in his career, Seven and three
• 23:32
  against the spread. And then also a bit of a
• 23:34
  schedule situation here, like Houston played last week, but
• 23:37
  prior to last week they had a bye week versus Kansas City.
• 23:40
  They're in the midst of playing three games in 11 days.
• 23:43
  That's just a really tough schedule spot.
• 23:46
  So again, Houston in recent weeks is much more rested having
• 23:50
  that by a couple weeks ago. And I look at rhythm.
• 23:53
  Rhythm says basically I have one system that says Houston should
• 23:57
  be favored minus 1/2 point and then the other one says Houston
• 24:00
  should be plus 2.9. So even if you take the 2.9,
• 24:04
  again, 3 point game, we won with a hook.
• 24:07
  So I'm going to take CJ Stroud and the Texans plus 3 1/2.
• 24:11
  One more bet for you for Saturday.
• 24:12
  Pittsburgh, Baltimore. Now Pittsburgh Steelers are
• 24:16
  getting 6 1/2 at Baltimore. Divisional game.
• 24:18
  Tomlin has a dog. Russell Wilson has a dog.
• 24:21
  Tomlin off a loss. Divisional spot.
• 24:23
  All these great systems around Pittsburgh, but what's the
• 24:26
  market doing? The market is continuing to
• 24:28
  steam toward Baltimore. Baltimore open this game as as
• 24:32
  low as -4 1/2 - 5 quickly got up to five and a half.
• 24:36
  Yesterday it got up to six. Today it's up to -6 1/2 and a
• 24:40
  lot of books are juiced -6 1/2 - 115 like it may go to seven.
• 24:44
  And then I look at the bet splits and this is a great fade.
• 24:47
  The trendy dog play guys, I'm I'm playing Baltimore, believe
• 24:49
  it or not, I've seen this movie before.
• 24:52
  Public is playing Pittsburgh, but line keeps going to
• 24:55
  Baltimore at DraftKings. Only 42% bets, but 60% dollars
• 25:01
  are on Baltimore. At Circa, only 50% bets, but 98%
• 25:05
  dollars are on Baltimore. By the way, no George Pickens
• 25:08
  for Pittsburgh. So when you take him out, I
• 25:10
  think he really, really, really hurts that offense there for
• 25:13
  Pittsburgh. And this is a play for me where,
• 25:16
  hey, Baltimore blew out. Who's at the Giants last week.
• 25:19
  Pittsburgh had a loss. Pittsburgh's banged up.
• 25:24
  Usually this is a very tight game.
• 25:25
  You know, usually Pittsburgh, Baltimore, don't even think
• 25:27
  about it. Just whoever's the dog take the
• 25:29
  points, but this looks like it's going to seven and I want to
• 25:32
  grab that 6 1/2 now. So I'm actually laying it with
• 25:35
  Baltimore minus 6 1/2. This just screams fade the
• 25:38
  trendy dog play to me again, all these great systems on
• 25:40
  Pittsburgh, but you got to think that you know the wise guys who
• 25:43
  are hitting Baltimore, they know Tomlin has a dog.
• 25:46
  Tomlin off a loss. Wilson has a dog and looks to me
• 25:49
  like they're laying it with Baltimore anyway.
• 25:50
  So I jumped on Baltimore minus 6 1/2.
• 25:53
  You might be able to get some reduced juice minus one O 5, but
• 25:57
  even -110 looks like it's creeping A7.
• 26:00
  I'm laying it. Let's go Baltimore minus 6 1/2
• 26:03
  and then one more bet for you. It's a gross one.
• 26:05
  You're going to puke in your mouth.
• 26:07
  But Jacksonville Las Vegas Raiders it is Sunday at 4:25.
• 26:13
  It's basically a pick em game right now.
• 26:15
  It's like -1 -, 1 1/2 toward Vegas at home.
• 26:19
  But I like the over here it open at 39 1/2.
• 26:22
  It's up to 40 or even 40 1/2 and this is a contrarian over.
• 26:27
  At DraftKings, only 39% bets but 60% dollars on the over.
• 26:32
  At Circa, only 40% bets but 50% dollars on the over.
• 26:36
  So both DraftKings and Circa have a rare contrarian over
• 26:39
  opportunity. Remember, public loves betting
• 26:41
  overs, so when they load up on an under, it creates the rare
• 26:44
  opportunity to be contrarian and bet against the public and still
• 26:48
  root for points. Rhythm has 41.6 points expected
• 26:54
  and I was able to find over 40 at Caesars.
• 26:56
  There's a couple books hanging 40 still.
• 26:58
  Most are at 40 1/2, but I played that over 40 at Caesars.
• 27:02
  Both these teams are at the bottom of the barrel in terms of
• 27:05
  points allowed to give up a lot on defense.
• 27:08
  Both teams are giving up around 27 points per game.
• 27:11
  That ranks around 27th, 28th in the NFL.
• 27:14
  So do we get a, you know, 2320 game?
• 27:18
  You know, I don't know, 20/24/20, I don't know,
• 27:21
  something like that. Can we get teams basically in
• 27:23
  the 20s? You know, Mac Jones is probably
• 27:25
  good for a pick or two. But this is more to me about the
• 27:28
  bad defenses than it is good offense.
• 27:31
  But I'm I'm, I'm gonna go over here contrarian over
• 27:34
  opportunity. Jacksonville, Vegas over 40 at
• 27:37
  Caesars. Reminder, there's college games
• 27:40
  tomorrow. There's NFL games on Sunday.
• 27:42
  I'm going to give it a little bit more time.
• 27:44
  Nothing I felt like we had to fire on today.
• 27:46
  So stay tuned for the sharp report from my Twitter at Josh
• 27:49
  under score insights tomorrow morning and for some player
• 27:52
  props and game bets for Sunday. Of course.
• 27:55
  Tune into the Twitter live stream 11:00 AM Eastern Time
• 27:58
  myself and James Santor powered by rhythm.
• 28:01
  That about does it for episode 187, a big Friday edition, a big
• 28:06
  pre Christmas edition of the all systems go sports betting pod.
• 28:10
  This is the part of the pod where first I thank you for
• 28:12
  taking the time out of your busy lives to find 30 minutes, listen
• 28:15
  to the pod and listen to some sharp contrarian breakdowns.
• 28:18
  It means a lot to me. If you want to let me know you
• 28:20
  appreciate the pod win, lose or draw.
• 28:22
  You appreciate the insights because I hope you know that
• 28:24
  these are not opinions. These are interpretations of the
• 28:27
  data in the betting market. Hopefully that's something you
• 28:29
  value because I think it's important to not bet games based
• 28:33
  on bias, but bet bet games based on numbers.
• 28:37
  And again, you always hear the old adage wise guys bet numbers,
• 28:40
  not teams, which is what we we try to do.
• 28:42
  But if you enjoy the pod, you want to let me know you
• 28:44
  appreciate the pod. Please do one thing for me.
• 28:46
  Could you give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
• 28:50
  iTunes? Just go to rate and review.
• 28:53
  Five stars would mean a lot Help us to continue to grow the pod.
• 28:55
  If you want to recommend it to a friend or click the follow
• 28:58
  button, that would be fantastic as well.
• 29:01
  Secondly, I still think you have time here if you're, if you're
• 29:04
  scratching and clawing, don't know what to get as a Christmas
• 29:07
  gift for that person in your life, family member, colleague,
• 29:11
  Co worker, whoever. You got a Secret Santa party
• 29:14
  tonight or tomorrow and you got no idea what to get that person.
• 29:17
  You know you should get them. You should get them the
• 29:19
  everything guide to sports betting.
• 29:20
  It's a book that I wrote a few years ago.
• 29:22
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
• 29:25
  set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
• 29:27
  locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
• 29:31
  how to shop for the best line, how to go contrarian, how to set
• 29:34
  up a bankroll management plan, all included in the everything
• 29:37
  guide to sports betting. So grab a copy from Amazon and
• 29:40
  Jeff Bezos will will drop it on your front porch with a drone.
• 29:44
  And by the way, I'm still monitoring monitoring the
• 29:46
  drones. Guys.
• 29:47
  Story gets weirder and weirder. They just closed the skies in in
• 29:51
  in New Jersey for commercial drones, which why would you do
• 29:54
  that if it's nothing to see here?
• 29:56
  But anyway, stay tuned for my aliens Ted talk later.
• 30:00
  But of course, guys, if you haven't done it yet, also go
• 30:02
  download juice reel and rhythm, my two favorite sports betting
• 30:05
  apps to help me win. They're going to help you win.
• 30:08
  Rhythm, of course, does a great job powering this pod, providing
• 30:10
  us AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 30:13
  player props for all the major sports.
• 30:16
  And then juice reel where you can follow every all systems go
• 30:19
  best bet pick from the social tab for 499 a week.
• 30:23
  And then also you will get the Robo Jackson best bet pics.
• 30:26
  I've noticed Robo's been hot here.
• 30:27
  He's ripping off some winds. If you want to tell those from
• 30:30
  the AI backed model. And then you also have the
• 30:33
  arbitrage plays sharp mush indicators.
• 30:35
  You can sync up your sports books easily.
• 30:37
  Shop for the best line on futures all available when you
• 30:40
  download Juice reel. So download Juice reel, download
• 30:42
  rhythm. It'll be off and running making
• 30:45
  sharp bets. That about does it for today's
• 30:48
  podcast. I'm going to leave you with a
• 30:49
  couple things as always. One whether I see you at the
• 30:52
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the brook
• 30:55
  in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down down down in
• 30:59
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
• 31:02
  Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in
• 31:04
  Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
• 31:07
  get down or Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest
• 31:10
  juice possible is found the South point sweat and sharp
• 31:13
  contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
• 31:16
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
• 31:18
  you're going to show me a Chargers ticket, a Boston,
• 31:22
  Chicago, NBA under ticket, Whatever you do though, Georgia
• 31:26
  Southern, that quarterback throwing 4 picks, Come on man.
• 31:29
  And how about Quentin Johnson coming up short?
• 31:31
  Lindenwood, South Dakota. I still can't believe we
• 31:34
  couldn't get either one of South Dakota or Lindenwood.
• 31:37
  But either way, guys, win, lose or draw, we never give up.
• 31:40
  We always continue to grind. So of course, I wish you a great
• 31:44
  holiday weekend prior to prior to Christmas.
• 31:47
  I'm actually on Monday, is it Monday or no?
• 31:51
  Tuesday morning, Christmas Eve, I'm jumping on a plane with the
• 31:55
  wife and we're going to San Diego to visit her family for
• 31:58
  the holidays. So I am much, very much looking
• 32:00
  forward to that. Hope everyone has a great
• 32:02
  weekend, holiday parties, you know, whatever you guys are up
• 32:06
  to have a great time, enjoy it. Save some eggnog for me.
• 32:10
  And remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
• 32:13
  public, place yourself on the side of the house.
• 32:14
  Always be with the smart money, never against it will smart
• 32:17
  money when every time not always beat the closing line with
• 32:21
  freaking Lindenwood and they let us down.
• 32:23
  But guess what? Sometimes that's going to
• 32:24
  happen. We just got to keep grinding
• 32:26
  because anything can happen in a one off.
• 32:28
  But we're playing long term. And if you consistently long
• 32:31
  term follow that blueprint against the public with the
• 32:34
  house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
• 32:37
  If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
• 32:40
  sports bettors. So have a great weekend
• 32:42
  everyone. Hope to see you for the live
• 32:43
  stream on Sunday at 11:00 AM Eastern Time on Twitter.
• 32:46
  If not, we'll be back at it on Monday for a New Year's Eve Eve
• 32:50
  Edition episode 188 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 32:54
  podcast. Have a great weekend, guys.
• 32:57
  Great weekend for football. Let's see if we can cash some
• 32:59
  tickets. Good luck.