Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 40: Week 8 College Football Betting Preview

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Episode 40: Week 8 College Football Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. Your favorite time of week. You
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download the crazy sheets and get you some cold to drink, and you get
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ready to talk about some college football betting. I'm Mark and I'm in the
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college football podcasting studio actually known as my backyard, and Scotty's at home.
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Brother, How the hell are you man? Good? Glad to be home?
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Sorry? Miss? Last week, our schedules were a mess. Couldn't
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really get going. You had night and I had day booked and we just
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couldn't just couldn't get it rolling. One night we could have recorded, I
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was at dinner until the wee hours, so I did not want it,
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and listeners probably did not want any part of me after I'd been drinking for
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about six hours either or so might have had a little bit of a thick
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tongue, a little thick tongue to take sure go sure, got you there?
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Not a bad week last week, I mean we actually want some money.
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We bet some other games we talked about. The podcast did pretty well,
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but interesting things. I mean, Washington showed out our ticket that we've
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got preseason on Washington to win the pack twelve. Looks good, but at
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the same time, I'm really looking forward to hopefully seeing the Oregon Washington rematch
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to win the pack to him. I thought that was a great game.
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I thought that was a tremendous game. It was everything it was cracked up
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to be. I want to comment on bow Knicks. We want a lot
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of money betting against that guy on the road. He's played two really tough
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ro games because that environment at Lubbock was tough early in the year, and
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he's played well. Yeah, I mean he is. I mean, I
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am. Look, he was super talented coming out. Dad was a good
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quarterback in the SEC. Kid obviously had talent. But I mean, I
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am just amazed at the at the progression he's made since he left Auburn.
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I mean, he is just it really is impressive. And there's two things
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that come to mind. First, you gotta go where you're a good fit.
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He doesn't go to Auburn. If Dad hadn't have been the quarterback at
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Auburn and he grew and he had grown up an Auburn fan his whole life,
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and he basically wasted three years of development. That guy may already be
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in the NFL had he gone through an Oregon or a proper fit initially,
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and you know, but kudos to that kid. And I find myself really
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cheering for him because as much as I, as much as I lament transferring,
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no kid ever needed to leave more than that kid needed to leave the
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situation and get a fresh start. And kudos to him for taking advantage of
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it and capitalizing on it. Is he's playing really good football. Because he
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played well enough to win the second half, they were the better football team
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in that ball game, and I just I feel like the crowd and the
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road environment was probably the difference in that ballgame. But I think both those
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teams are really good. I have not seen anything that makes me think that
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they're candidly not two of the five six best teams in the country. So
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I think both those teams you know, ought to be in still in the
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national title all because I think they're both really good football teams. I would
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tell you right now if you I'm not a big Heisman better I've never won
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the Heisman, But if you go out and look, you can find bow
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Nicks at thirty to one to win the Heisman. And the reason I put
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this out there is they've still got some big games ahead of them, they're
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gonna be faking in all of them, and then they're there, and Washington's
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got a much tougher schedule. Morton muche Cupper road down the stretch here.
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Yeah, I agree. And so if you're looking at just taking a flyer
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pizza money, fifty bucks, twenty bucks, hunter bucks whatever at thirty to
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one, which you can still get at a lot of places, it's pretty
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open at commonly at twenty to one, I wouldn't tell you that's a bad
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bet because if you look around at anybody else that you think could be in
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the Heisman conversation, Drake May at North Carolina, I mean, they're doing
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great things that are out there. I don't know what big win he's got
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left on their schedule that's gonna to propel him to that. Pennix obviously is
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the leader in the clubhouse. I think Pennix is a little banged up,
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but they've also got a really tough roads. Like you said, ahead Caleb,
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I think is done after that showing last week against Notre Dame. Quinn
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Ewers hasn't done anything. McCarthy up there hadn't done anything as much as I
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would have loved to brought Bowers make a run at it. He's out at
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least until the SEC Championship, and they're not saying a guy who deserved it.
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Yeah, he was the most I would tell you he was. He's
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gonna be the most influential player. And by that what I mean is losing
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him, George's offense is gonna have to change. Somebody in that receiving room
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is gonna have to make a step up, and it may be you know,
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Mconkee Thomas could think. I think he's gonna be roight Rod Thomas.
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He's got the ability to do it. They've just been so reliant on him
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because he was such a blanket. I think that the money they spent in
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the portal getting him, I think is gonna end up now being money well
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spent. Because still think the only game they could lose down the stretch is
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at Tennessee, so that that puts them in the national title I mean in
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the SEC title game with a chance to play for the nagging because if you
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look at the end of Georgia's schedule, there's some actual I mean, I
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like, I think Ole Miss could be a problem for him. Well,
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without Bowers, I hadn't thought that the whole year. But without Bowers,
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this is a different football team. I agree, and and so yeah,
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I mean they got to go to Athens, so that's gonna be tough.
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But uh, Rabble was playing good football and they could easily be I think,
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I'll be honest, I think Kiffen got caught up in a mental in
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in a mental war with Saving, and it cost his team the football game.
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Uh he did some overthinking in that football game. So anyway, I
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say that I think the Rubbels are good. That defensive problem though they're man,
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it is good, but uh and I know that. And man,
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they're signing guys like mad I mean, you would think that defense would would
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would be getting better, and I guess it is getting better, but man,
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it's still a long way from good. So and going against those guys
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every day in practice, because that offense is good and it's talented, you
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would think they would get better. So anyway, that'll be an interesting game.
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Savings just churning right along, you know. I mean outside of this
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game, there's really not much else he can lose this weekend that's left on
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the schedule, So you know, those guys are craying along I mean,
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obviously they can lose to LSU, but I would be very surprised that they
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did as bad as that LSU defense looks. So it'll be interesting to see.
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The That is intriguing to me is Oklahoma. Even after that win,
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nobody's talking about it. I agree, I agree, And I'll tell you
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what, man, I loved Dylan Gabriel when he was at UCF and then
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they kind of wrote him off, and then last year he was hurt.
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I loved him last year until we got hurt. They were that was actually
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a pretty good man. He was explosive in some games and then gets hurt
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and it's like they just went in the tank and everybody's like, oh,
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they're terrible, and they fire their coach. I'm like, well, their
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quarterbacks been hurt all year. Yeah. I totally agree. And I actually
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snatched up after one of the games we watched. I gotta know you ticket
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at twenty five and one to win the national championship, and I mentioned it
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on the show and it was for fifty bucks, right, But I've got
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that. I've got a Washington one and one another I can't remember what it
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is. But point being is their Oklahoma's schedule with you look what they've got
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left. It's very manageable. The Big Twelve is not very good now.
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When they play Texas again, most likely in the in the Big Twelve Championship,
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Texas will be favored again and Texas probably should have won that game last
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time. But oh you got it done. They're still pretty healthy. They
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did lose Mattower, their right guard. It's like a five year starter kid
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transferred in from cal and that one. But I think he's gonna be back.
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I ran into him a couple of weeks ago when he was in town,
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and it seems like he'll be back by the end of this And he's
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just a pretty good leader on the offensive line. But don't sleep on Oklahoma.
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I think Venables has done a really good job improving that defense, and
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which is hard to do when you're running a offense that wants to run as
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fast as they can run. And so I've been good there, but a
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couple of teams I'm gonna talk about. I've impressed with Missouri. Man,
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he's done a great job. Lock's done fantastic. I thought out there.
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I've I've bought in. Uh, I mean, what he's got going Theo
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Weese, the transfer from Oklahoma, and Lynn Barton the other wide receiver them.
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Man, they're playing lights out and that that team looks solid h all
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the way around. Let's talk about the Wagon and the Sun Belt. Can
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we talk about James Madison for a second. Yes, that's where I was
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gonna go talking about another team. Nobody's talking about. Man, they are
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giving up less than two yards of care. I mean at that they're playing
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some football. I mean, not only are they undefeated. I want to
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comment on one thing. Last week ended up betting Pittsburgh and everybody's like,
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are you crazy? Have you seen Louisville. I'm like, that team's not
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good enough to go undefeated. I'm like they've got more holes and Swiss cheese.
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They're just getting it done because they got good coaches. I'm like,
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sooner or later they're gonna go on the road and they're gonna lay a third.
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Well it came Saturday. James Madison doesn't feel that way because they play
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such good defense, and that is to me, that is what's gonna make
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this team, I think be able to carry on this record. Are they're
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going to go undefeated? Probably not. I mean they may lose this weekend.
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I don't think so, but they certainly could. But they look good
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and I want to talk about going back and some of my teams we were
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big on, but they lost some games. You know, I kind of
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backed off of South Alabama a little bit after James Madison gas Candam and I
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thought, well, maybe I missed on these guys. Maybe, you know,
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I man, I'm not gonna keep riding it. Total mistake. Now
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they're in the fun belt and getting back at it, and just gas Cannon
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people and I made bet against Southern miss every game this week. They got
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murdered last week. Go on the road to app State next this coming week.
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I mean that's probably another game they're probably not gonna play very well in.
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Although I'm not a huge amount of Appellites and State fan either, but
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uh man, they do not look good. South Alabama playing again next week
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early in the week. I think I'm about to get back on those guys
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too. Yeah, there's there's some good teams if you're willing to dig into
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it. The MAC is terrible. Just Terri in the conference across the board
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has been better. I'll tell you he's playing well. We're gonna talk about
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him again. I don't need to cut into it, but Arford, Ohio
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Miami of Ohio's kind of got it, got it rolling. I don't think
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I think those guys are covered. I think they're undefeated against the spread if
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I remember right. I've got some notes written down on that game. But
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the uh, but man, they're playing pretty good football. Stunned Ohio couldn't
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get it done last week, uh on the road. That they're better.
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That feels like they're a better team than that. They let that one get
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away from them. Uh and that you know what may cost them their division
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and get and cost them a chance to uh to play for the conference championship.
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So as a big loss for the Bobcats. Yeah, so, I
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mean there's still be a long way to go. You know, we talked
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about this after three weeks in. Here we are six weeks in. You
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know. One of the things we said we wouldn't talk about it anymore was
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Colorado they won't be I mean not because we don't like Colorado, just we
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didn't think they'd be in the picture again. But somehow Prime has got him
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back in there. The Stanford game last week, when they gave up all
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those points to lose. It was just amazing. But I'm gonna say one
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thing and we can move on. Travis Hunter is amazing, and yes he
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is. But the thing is, dude, you can't. I mean,
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if you haven't watched Stanford play yet, both Stanford and Colorado have to be
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running tempo wise top fifteen, top twenty teams in the country as far as
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just seconds per snap. Travis Hunter played one hundred and fifty seven snaps in
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Boulder at Altitude last week. I think they're gonna fucking kill that kid.
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I mean, I know he's special, but like on offense, a freak
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in that game. But defensively you could tell at the end of the game
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they and they think it, yeah, he was out of it, and
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and so I just kind of wonder that, you know, and I get
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it what they're trying to do. And I wish there was more kids that
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would snub into go, you know, play corner when they're you know,
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for ten plays or twenty plays a game that are wide receivers or what it
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may be, or vice versa. But that kid, I mean, I
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think they're just gonna run the run, the rubber right off the tires on
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that man. And he is. He's a special kind of athlete. I
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said this on Sunday talking UH to some guys. We were talking about football
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and what you think, and I said, basically the same thing you and
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I have not talked about Travis Hunter. I said, the sad part for
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this kid is where his I believe where he transitions in the NFL's wide receiver
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I do too. I think he's a slot guy in it. I think
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he's a slot guy in the NFL and the and the guy is impressive.
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He can make plays and he can get open. But the problem is he's
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not playing enough at either either one to concentrate on it to get grade at
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his craft. And that's gonna hurt him at the end of the day.
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And you got I understand he's talented, but man, it takes a lot.
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These kids put in a lot of work to get grade at their craft.
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And I just wonder, like you, at the so many snaps,
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is that get taken a lot of tread off his tires, a lot of
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tread And the NFL worries about that. They get concerned about that, and
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he's gonna roll up there like he played eight years of college football. Oh,
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Scott is gott it. That was last week. Man, we had
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a winning week. What's our total app for the podcast for the season,
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thirty seven, thirty two and one. Had a couple of difficult weeks after
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a couple of really good weeks. But we're about to get it back,
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baby. Getting into October. You and I have always struggled a little bit
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in October, and I think it's because the books get dialed in and then
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we always kind of find our stride into October first of November. So here
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it comes, baby, Let's get on track this week. First game we
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got Wednesday night, Battle of I ten. I read this morning. This
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is the one hundredth time these two teams have played. And see you suh.
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That would be New Mexico State traveling two l Passole to play the mighty
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Miners that you've got out there. I'm with the New Mexico State on this
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one. I think I talked about it a little bit if you caught the
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Monday podcast I put out just trying to get ahead of things. I laid
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three with New Mexico State in this one. They got a quarterback, Diego
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Pavia. Kid's probably gonna be the best player on the field in this one
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and UTEP's defenses. UTEP has not been playing well. I think Dana Dimmel
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is on a massive hot seat. They did get the win last week,
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but this New Mexico State team's playing for some revenge. They haven't won this
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game in several years. They're four and three straight up. This team's two
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wins away from getting to go to a bowl game. And I mean,
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if you're Jerry Kill, he's got them dialed in. They seem to play
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Hungary. It's a rivalry game. I would normally really like the points in
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this one, but I just think New mex Coast State's a better squad.
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I'm gonna lay the three with New Mexico State Aggie's in this one. When
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they travel to l Passole tonight to play this game, I do too.
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Look, I think this will be a I think this will be an ugly
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game, but I think it's the ability for New Mexico State to run the
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football averaging six yards of carry versus that UTEP defense given up five yards to
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carry. Strength on weakness generally translates well when you're playing in a ball game.
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And look, while this is on the road, what is this thirty
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minutes apart, I think apart something like that, something like it's not max
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hour. Yeah, it's not very I mean it's it'd be like me driving,
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like people driving down from Denton for North Texas to go play s m
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U. Yeah, I mean that's basically what this is. Like. I
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think they'll have a good crowd at this one. And the other thing too
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is if you get a chance to, if you listen to this, and
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you listen on your way home and get home, turn on the sun Bowl.
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It's a it's it's a beautiful venue set right there in the side of
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the mountains. It's a great spot. So let's ride New Mexico State maybe
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minus three Wednesday night, the use the game Thursday night, Sunbelt Baby.
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James Madison will be traveling to Hunting to West Virginia to get this one on.
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This is an old lift CS rivalry. These teams have played several times
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over under Here's forty nine and a half. James Madison's laying somewhere between two
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and a half to three and a half. It's pretty well painted across the
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board. At this point, we talked about how much we think James Madison's
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a wagon. Are we gonna ride him in the snow? Are we gonna
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ride him Thursday night? We're gonna ride them in? And look, I
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like Charles huff At Marshall. I think he's doing a good job. You
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know, he's a State he's a Penn State. Mississippi State former running back
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coach left State to go to Alabama under Saban. I think he's a potential
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big time head coach. Uh, just simply because that's what he was was
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a good recruiter at all of those schools. Uh, he's the guy who
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signs Aquarius Marks and Dylan Johnson or Washington listeners recognized Dylan Johnson Missippi State transferred.
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That's up there. And then Marx is obviously the best player Mississippi State's
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got by a couple of miles. So it's ah, So he's a good
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recruiter. Can I do ify talent? And I like him, But I
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just think this James Madison team is playing really, really good football and no
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one has ever made the jump better than they are making the jump. And
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I understand they're not playing in the Southeastern Conference or whatever. They're playing some
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decent football teams. And to get this early in your tenure to six and
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zero and already be Bowl eligible as we're talking about before Halloween. Man,
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that's impressive. I like James Madison. I mentioned their run defense. They're
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giving up one point five yards a rush. That is impressive. I don't
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care if you're playing middle schoolers. That is a really, really good job
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of playing defense. I think that is the difference in this ball game.
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Again, I like James Madison. I like the opportunity for him to get
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it to get it done. They they're able to make everybody a one dimensional
18:00
team, and yet they can get enough pressure on the quarterback that it creates
18:06
problems or plus four in the turnover department. Marthall's minus two in the turnover
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department, and that's all from that defensive line being able to dominate upfront.
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They're able to drop guys, create some pressure on some guys without having the
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blitz every day. So that's what I like about this football. One thing
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I want you to keep in mind too, when you're thinking about James Mason's
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the season goes on, because I got to feel them. But this won't
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be our last time we're going to be on these guys. This team cannot
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play for the Sun Belt Championship because they can't go to a bowl. The
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only way they get to go to a bowl is if there's not enough teams
18:37
that qualify, and then they can slide in, I do think, and
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if I'm wrong, somebody hit me up on Twitter. Though. If this
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team qualifies for a New Year's sixth Bowl, they actually could get a chance
18:48
to go to one of those. And definitely can do that. And so
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the one thing I will tell you is is this team's gonna have a lot
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of grit in its teeth all season long. And that's the reason I'm not
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scared to lay points on the road against this more Marshall team that I do
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think is good. But I think this Madison team gets it done. Only
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other game I got Scott during the week. I haven't played it yet,
19:07
but I may lay some Rice team total. They're against Tulsa. Tulsa's defense
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is terrible and J. T. Daniels has been spinning the bean pretty solid
19:17
for this Rice team. He's got into three and three here and they're scoring
19:19
thirty two points a game. So if I can find a good number,
19:22
I may dive in on that. I need to look at the weather in
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the SMU Temple game. That game is going to be played in Philly.
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Temple's backup quarterback came in for Kurt Warner's kid last week. He's rough,
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bro, It's all I'm telling you. You may want to look at a
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team total in SMU as well. If you can get something around a twenty
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seven and a half, I would tell you that could even be playable and
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go from there. It's moving on. Let's go to big ten. I
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think we leave James Madison. Got one other thing I want to say.
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Yeah, if your Virginia Tech, if you don't go hire Kirk Signetti,
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then you deserve everything you get. I mean, he's definitely winning the battle
20:00
at the DMV from recruiting standpoint. I mean, it's unbelievable. He already
20:06
knows the state. I mean, he's got a better program than both those
20:10
big schools. Oh yeah, one hundred percent he does. It's not even
20:12
close. Yeah, how the if that guy didn't get that or the Virginia
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job. You deserve everything you can deserve. You can get everything you deserve.
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So anyway, Scotty, moving on. Biggest game we got on the
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board this weekend or gotta be the biggest game this weekend Penn State Ohio State.
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This will be a noon Eastern kickoff over under here is listed at forty
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five and a half. Ohio State is getting four and a half. Are
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excuse me, laying four and a half points in this one? Penn State
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scoring forty four points a game, they're only giving up eight, six and
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oh straight up. And as you know, James Franklin's coaching this team,
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and that motherfucker knows what the spread is. Every week. He's six and
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oh against the number. Ohio State is also six, is scoring thirty six
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points a game, given up nine point seven. He's six and oh straight
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up three two and one against the number. I'm gonna roll real quick on
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this one and see what you gotta think. But I like Penn State in
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the spot. Penn State getting four and a half. Might even look for
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a five in there if you can, you might find one. The only
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thing is Ryan Day has absolutely owned James Franklin since he's gotten up there.
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I think he's something stupid like thirty five and zero against Ohio State teams that,
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excuse me, the big ten teams that aren't Michigan. And on the
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flip side, of that, James Franklin against ranked teams is like four and
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fourteen, and so this being on the road, Jim Knowles's defense has absolutely
21:30
stepped up. They were the difference last year in this game was JTT that
21:34
defensive tackle that they've got there was a huge difference. But I like what
21:38
I've gotten from Penn State. They've got physicality defensively, they've played well.
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We're gonna find out what they've got. And to me, Ohio State just
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looks a little off. And I don't know if Trevon Henderson's gonna play or
21:51
not. They're kind of banged up in the wide receiver position as well.
21:55
But if they can't run the ball, I just can't see him being overly
21:57
explosive against Penn State. They've got three NFL defensive backs on that Penn State
22:02
football team. I'm gonna roll Penn State to get it done this week.
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I think they pulled the upset. Frankly, great point on Penn State.
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That was one of the things I have They don't want here since twenty eleven.
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Lord, you get a program like Penn State, Man, they're not
22:18
supposed to go twelve years without beating anybody on the ruck. I mean serious.
22:22
They shouldn't be losing to anybody six straight times on the road. They
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really shouldn't. They have too good of a program to do that. I
22:30
agree with you. To me, this is all about Ohio State. Can
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they figure out a way to get that run game going. And if they
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can't, I don't think you're gonna see a whole lot of dropping eight from
22:41
Penn State. They're gonna be getting after his ass because I think they feel
22:45
like they're one of the few schools They've got good enough defensive backs to actually
22:51
cover some of these guys. Look Harringson's legit. I mean that, no
22:55
matter who they're playing or how good the guy he's playing is, he's gonna
22:57
get his Yeah, you drop that guy most NFL rosters, and he's gonna
23:00
be the best player on the on their roster. That wide receiver. Just
23:04
a handful of schools that he wouldn't be I guy a player. Ohio State
23:08
obviously has great wide receivers. They always do. It's not just him.
23:11
They've got some good some other good ones. But I believe they have to
23:17
be able to run the football, and they have not done it. If
23:19
they can't run the football better against than they did against Notre Dame. They're
23:23
gonna lose this ball game. I don't care if it's at home. Understand
23:27
that ball game was in South Bend. I don't care. They're gonna lose
23:32
the They're gonna lose this football game. They have to be able to take
23:36
some pressure off that quarterback because at the end of the day, Penn State
23:40
is going to be aggressive. I like Penn State and this ball game as
23:44
well. I love getting this many points, but I agree with you.
23:48
I think Penn State may win this football game. Yeah. Notre Dame defensively
23:52
put up a hell of a fight against Ohio State, and they had a
23:55
chance to win that game. And I think Penn State's defense I've graded it
23:59
out a little bit higher, and so that's where I'm gonna roll with it.
24:02
But yeah, the only thing that gets me is Franklin just being able
24:04
to get over the hump. But they win here a ton of momentum.
24:08
It's exciting. Let's see how you know how big You know how big that
24:11
game in a couple of weeks will be. If because they play Michigan November
24:17
eleventh at home, you know how big that game will be Oh, because
24:21
I think this is the first time market If I'm not, I think that
24:25
this is the first time they're going to have done two whiteouts. Oh was
24:29
that right? I didn't know in the same season. If I know,
24:32
I read that somewhere and I just can't. I'll ask one of my buddies
24:36
next week and confirm that he's a Penn State guy. But man, I
24:40
am pretty sure that's the case. They're gonna do it again. That's gonna
24:42
be another huge game. If they win this ball game, that sets up
24:47
something just gigantic with a trap game waiting on deck at Maryland right before it.
24:53
So that's an interesting, interesting part of the schedule. But they get
25:00
to play two straight home games and then and in Michigan State on the neutral
25:03
field after mission that get Rutgers in Michigan State on the neutral field. They
25:08
win this ball game, you're talking about Penn State having a legit chance at
25:12
a national championship even if they lose that game to Michigan. Yeah. I
25:18
think if you want to buy a Penn State National championship ticket, I haven't
25:21
looked at the odds, but you probably have to put some pizza money on
25:22
it now. Uh And and I don't think it's a bad investment. I
25:26
mean, because it's not a bad ticket to hole the only thing. How
25:30
big of a ship burger do you think Fox feels like they're having to eat
25:34
the fact that they're going to have to roll out either Michigan, Ohio State
25:38
or Penn State to play Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game because they still
25:45
have conferences in there. Like if you're if you're Fox, don't you go
25:48
to the Big Ten and be like, hey, look man, we'll write
25:49
y'all check for ten million. So that, but but don't make us put
25:55
Iowa in the Big Ten Championship. Yeah, don't don't. Don't make us
25:56
put don't make us put Iowa. And they so that they can just somebody
26:00
can just go get brittled. And the sad part is the sad part is
26:07
I believe it is entirely possible that we end up with all three of these
26:11
teams one loss, probably because I think they're all really good football teams.
26:17
Big ten's really top heavy because the rest of that league is just kind of
26:19
mad. But boy, to three at the top are really good football teams.
26:23
We're not going to get see one of two of those three play again.
26:29
Sucks. Well if you're you know, if you're the Big Ten next
26:33
year when they I don't know how they're going to do it. I haven't
26:34
seen anything. But when you roll Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington
26:40
in there, at least at this point, they'll have a conference championship.
26:44
That makes sense because you're gonna have seven or eight heavyweights in there based on
26:48
how those programs are all rolling. So that's next year. I'm excited for
26:51
it, Scotty. Let's stay in the Big Ten. Let's do an interstate
26:56
rivalry game. Wolverines will be traveling out to Sparti and East Lansing to play
27:00
Little Brother. We were all on Sparti last week and they had a chance
27:03
to win that game. They made so many errors at the end line here
27:07
is twenty four over unders forty eight. If you've watched Michigan play all season
27:11
long, and they're just bullies, and I mean that in the best way.
27:15
They are physical, they play as a team. I mean, I
27:19
guarantee you, if you're not a Michigan fan, you might not be able
27:22
to name three players on their team. But trust me when I tell you
27:26
as a unit. These guys can get it done, and they have just
27:30
played so well. I've been so impressed with them. Sparti on the other
27:34
side, I think d Antonio coming in is a big spike, big spike
27:38
for this team. But they've still did the rosters just depleted. It's not
27:44
nearly as good. I mean, look at the quarterback for Auburn was supposed
27:48
to It was this quarterback at spring training at Michigan State. The guy that's
27:52
probably gonna win the Bolitnikoff Keon Coleman at Florida State was on the roster the
27:59
spring training and so I mean, that's what kind of talent left this roster
28:03
that they've had to replace, never mind all the other stuff that's gone around
28:06
it. I'm gonna I mean, I think you're on the same side.
28:08
I lean Michigan to cover this one, but you're gonna laugh how I'm gonna
28:11
play this game. I think Michigan State's gonna come out with their hair on
28:15
fire, throw everything they can at this game. I may take me a
28:18
Sparty, especially if I can get me a Sparty plus fourteen and a half
28:22
ish for the first half and then turn around and play Michigan second half in
28:26
Michigan second for the game total. This Michigan team in the second half reminds
28:32
me of Penn State a few years ago, when like you almost had to
28:34
set your alarm to go bet Penn State in the second half because they're just
28:37
so physical that they just wear you down. And if granted these are lower
28:42
level teams that low yeah, and so I like it, but that's where
28:45
i'd roll with it. Michigan minus twenty four. Yeah, Look, Michigan
28:52
just keeps They just keep doing a good job just pounding guys. That's the
28:56
second half, You're right. I mean they look where I take that Minnesota
29:00
game, and that game was competitive for a long time in the first half.
29:04
Hell, I think they were behind for a little while and just you
29:08
look up and their gaps can I'm at the end of the game. It's
29:11
like that every week. They just body blow, body blow, body blow.
29:17
They're terrible in the first half for the most part. They come out
29:21
flat, and I think that's a testament to how good this football team is.
29:25
It's not a raw rah, it's not all jazzed up. They just
29:29
come out with a workmanlike attitude and go to town and just wear you down,
29:36
and they just keep coming and coming, and you look up and you've
29:38
lost my four touchdowns. And that is that's the way this team. That
29:44
is truly the way this team feels. I love watching this hardball football team.
29:48
This is the best team to me that he's had, So I'm excited
29:52
with you. I actually like exactly what you're talking about. I like all
29:57
three of those lines on gonna take the number because I think they're gonna they're
30:02
gonna put their line out second half number if you're right, and it is
30:07
close, because this is really the first game we're gonna have gotten some a
30:11
game where these kids care and they're fired up, free game, wanting to
30:15
really put a boot in somebody's neck. So I don't know if they they
30:18
may come out their hair on fire, which they hadn't done all year.
30:21
Is the reason I'm gonna lay off that first half. But if Michigan States
30:25
are going to keep it close, you bet your bottom dollar I'm taking Michigan
30:27
second half, and I'll obviously be on the game total as well. So
30:32
yeah, we both like we both like Michigan in this small game. Lite,
30:34
let's stay in the Midwest Gotti. Toledo will be traveling to Oxford,
30:37
Ohio to play Miami of Ohio. Over under here is forty eight and a
30:41
half. Miami of Ohio is getting one and a half. Both of these
30:45
teams are six and one straight up. Miami of Ohio is six and one
30:49
against the number, whereas Toledo is two and five against the number. I'll
30:55
put this out there because I know what your MC play of the week,
30:56
But if you go look at who these teams have played, Miami Ohio has
31:00
got a much more difficult schedule than what Toledo's played thus far. Could we
31:04
get a home dog pulling an upset here against what would be the power of
31:10
the MAC Conference. You know we're gonna get a upset here. I do
31:12
like Miami in this ball game. Toledo has not. I thought kendidly,
31:17
I thought they were gonna look better than they have. So yeah, I
31:19
got a lot of concern for him going on the road here. I agree
31:22
with you. Miami has already got a really good win against Cincinnati, uh
31:26
in that ball game earlier in the year. This is a pretty good football
31:30
team. I like these guys as both of them. Both of them are
31:33
six and one difference is Miami six and one against the number six and one
31:38
against the number six and one overall as well, I like them here to
31:42
move to seven and one against the number which will align this close very likely
31:47
means they win the ball game as well. Give me some Oxford Ohio Miami
31:52
Ohio for the cover on the MAC Play of the week. Yeah, I
31:56
like it. I think I think Miami's got a better quarterback play. I
31:59
like Daykon Fin a lot quarterback at Toledo. I know a lot of y'all
32:02
this game is not gonna get watched. It's gonna lose in the wash because
32:06
it's gonna be buried somewhere. But but I think I think Gabbert has done
32:10
a really good job at Miami Ohio, and so I like what they've done
32:14
here. We've bet on this team a lot over the years. Hopefully we'll
32:16
be back on him as the weeks start coming for Martin's a good football coach,
32:20
told. I mean, people don't realize he's this is a tenth year
32:24
year there. I mean that is I mean that's crazy. I mean that
32:29
is a long time to be there. I mean, yes, he does
32:32
not have a winning record versus the FBS. But man, he's done an
32:40
awesome job. Fourteen games under but he's twelve games over the spread. So
32:45
I mean, at the end of the day, these teams are competitive,
32:47
they get they get ready to play when they need to. He had a
32:51
great record at Division two when he was there. I think Chuck Martin's a
32:53
good football coach. Let's stay in a small conference game, Scotty. Let's
32:59
travel down to Lafayette, Louisiana for a Sunbelt matchup that we've got there.
33:04
I gotta find this game on the board. I pulled up in front of
33:06
me. Georgia State ULA LA be playing Saturday night in Lafayette. Ula LA
33:13
lay in three at home. Georgia State's coming in here. They're five and
33:17
one straight up, four and two against the number. Ula LA is four
33:21
and two straight up, two and four against the number. I'm gonna say
33:23
this, I really am surprised at Ula LA, but that they've played this
33:29
well thus far. This was a team I had downgraded a lot after last
33:34
season, you know, because when you lose Sun Belt Billy to go coach
33:37
at the University of Florida, I thought he took the magic with him.
33:40
Like he took all those kids on that roster, and so I'm surprised that
33:44
they've played as well. But to be laying three against the Georgia State team,
33:47
who I think has a chance to win the Sun Belt, I don't
33:51
know what about you. You know, at the end of the day,
33:54
I love made some Georgia State. They've been playing well all year a lot,
33:59
the way they're running all we talked about that that game at Coastal and
34:01
then just off the radar, I came back and took Coastal the next week
34:06
against Happy. That team's not as bad as Georgia State made them look.
34:10
And I think Georgia and look, Georgia State just went full gas can last
34:15
week against Marshall. I mean that was just that was a shredding And I
34:19
just think this team's playing well and they're doing it because they're able to run
34:22
the football. Ula LA's turning the football over. We lost this game with
34:25
Texas State and ula LA a couple of weeks ago. We didn't get that
34:29
game wrong and there's a couple of huge turnovers that cost us that game,
34:32
and they were run after they were catched. They were runs after the catch.
34:37
Turnovers where guys are, you know, moving the ball down the field
34:42
and then fumble the football. So I don't think we got that game wrong.
34:45
I don't think a lot of texts that good. They made a couple
34:47
of big plays. There weren't eight people in this stadium for that ball game
34:52
during the day. There probably won't be but sixteen there this week for Georgia
34:55
State. Give me Georgia State. They're gonna beat these guys because are going
34:59
to win at the line of scrimmage. Take Georgia State in the money line.
35:02
Baby, get you a little sprinkling there, get you some extra cheese.
35:05
I'll have to look that up here in a little bit, Scotti.
35:07
These next couple of games, we've got who baby Alabama Tennessee. Big game.
35:14
Let's smoke us a cigar. We got a little revenge factor on this
35:16
one from last season. If you remember last year Tennessee, this is when
35:20
they're kind of coming out party happened when they beat Alabama and people thought,
35:23
oh my god, this team's for real. Over under. Here's forty eight
35:28
and a half. Alabama's laying eight and a half. When you look at
35:30
this team, Tennessee scoring thirty three points a game, giving up seventeen.
35:35
They're five and one straight up, four and two against the number. Bama
35:37
scoring thirty points a game, giving up sixteen. They're five and one straight
35:40
up, four and three against the number. I'll tell you what's funny about
35:44
these two teams to me is this is it. Everybody kind of threw Bama
35:47
in the garbage after they lost to Texas, watted them up, threw them
35:52
away. This team's not any good. Their offensive line can't block Milroe,
35:57
can't throw, blah blah blah blah blah. Well, now we look up
36:00
and BAM is probably gonna win the SEC West and maybe he has a chance
36:05
to win the SEC Championship. I like them to win the SEC. Tennessee.
36:08
On the other hand, if you haven't watched them play this year,
36:10
this is not last year's Tennessee's the what's the fat kid's name that's on King
36:16
of the Hill, that's the little you know talking about that TV show that
36:20
I don't want it. Bobby, Bobby. Every time I see Josh Haipel
36:24
on TV, he looks like Bobby from King of the Hill. I mean,
36:28
he's got it. He is not aging well, he is just he
36:30
and Burt Belama are not gonna be any modeling competitions anytime soon, because those
36:36
are some I mean, have you seen how big Burt Belam is. He
36:38
is. He is as fat as that kid that plays d tackle for Tennessee
36:45
that's rolling in at like four to twenty eight. But anyway, this is
36:50
not the same team from last year Tennessee's bab They're really built more around their
36:54
defense, especially the front seven, and they've been playing really well physical.
36:59
They've got some talent in They did a great job recruit and putting them in
37:01
there. Joe Milton can he has not looked great chunking the deep ball.
37:06
I never thought he looked good throwing the deep ball at Michigan. Even when
37:08
he was here, people forgot he had the starting job that first game against
37:12
Pitton lost it, and so I haven't been I've been whelmed by what he's
37:16
been able to accomplish. And that's the reason Scott it I'm going under the
37:21
total on this one. I'm gonna try to find a forty nine, may
37:22
even buy it up to that. I could see a lot of grind in
37:25
this spot, and with this being a rivalry game, I think you're gonna
37:29
get everybody's top effort in this one, but I just see this one being
37:31
a little bit closer than maybe the number. But I also think if Alabama
37:36
can get up on Tennessee, Tennessee has very many explosive plays all season long,
37:40
and so I don't know how the one thing that they might could be
37:44
able to do is exploit that defensive secondary a little bit for Alabama, But
37:47
I just I don't know if Hypel's gonna want to take those shots because he
37:52
hasn't proven that he can effectively do that game in and game out. Whereas
37:55
last year, Tennessee's offense was a lot like the Baylor offense under our browsers
38:00
Ago RPO, but they were looking downfield score from far, big chunk shots.
38:06
Milton just doesn't do it for me. And I can't believe they haven't
38:08
rolled in the freshmen that they recruited. But I still think they're a solid
38:12
defensive unit and they can run the rock. I'm gonna go under for I
38:17
think they're doing this for defense. Look we've seen what's coming. Saturday.
38:21
Both these teams played Texas A and M and basically played the exact same football
38:24
game twenty to thirteen. Last week Tennessee A and M. Bama went on
38:29
the road twenty six to twenty. You know how many times Bama has gone
38:32
over a forty nine total this year, once when they played Mississippi State because
38:37
State's defense sucks and they can't get to the quarterback. SEC teams are averaging
38:43
ninety percent completion against Mississippi State. They suck. It isn't that this Alabama
38:47
offense suddenly found itself. It hasn't. It's got lots of problems. It's
38:52
going to be a defensive dominated game. Same things pretty much true for Tennessee
38:57
as well, though A and M. The tall was thirty three height South
39:00
Carolina and UTSA out of it because both those defenses don't measure up Florida in
39:06
a loss, they scored sixteen points for a total of forty nine in that
39:09
game, and that stellar team Austin p they got a whipping forty three for
39:15
their game total. I absolutely loved the under in this ball game to go
39:21
fight and phone booth. Both these teams hate each other. Both of them
39:23
have got major problems. Stretching the field at the offensive spot doesn't have anything
39:29
to do with skill on the at the wide receiver spots got all to do
39:32
with skill of the kids throwing it down the field. Both these teams are
39:37
good against the run. I think is a very low scoring they fighting phone
39:39
Booth also think Tennessee stayed within a nine number. I could see that the
39:44
one thing I think definitely changed Tennessee's offense more than probably a lot of people
39:47
want to talk about. Losing Bruce McCoy was a big deal because not only
39:52
that he's an NFL wide receiver, he was a leader on the field.
39:57
But you know what else he did. He blocked, blocked really well,
40:00
and he ran into a lot of double coverages there where they would have to
40:02
bracket him. And so losing him really changes that what you can have to
40:07
do against those guys, because I think kool Aid and the rest of those
40:09
guys get Alabama, could you man up, but I won't be surprised to
40:13
see him in a two high shell for a lot of the game and just
40:15
and that's that's the biggest problem. If you're Tennessee and you're Alabama in this
40:21
game, why you would man up is beyond me. You run a two
40:24
high shell with those guys and you make those quarterbacks throw into a zone.
40:29
They're gonna have problems you're seeing in the NFL on Sundays with these newer quarterbacks
40:34
that come in. You make those guys throw into his zone, and they
40:37
don't see the big openings because you don't just see a guy running wide open,
40:39
you know, across the field. They or they don't see the guy
40:43
sliding over. I won't and you're you're dealing with a fantastic defensive mind.
40:47
To Nick Saban here, look for that to happen this week. Go under
40:51
forty nine and a half. Now, Scottie, let's talk about a really
40:54
gross game. Let's talk about Iowa and I don't even know if this is
41:00
really gonna be a play, but we're gonna talk about it. Let's talk
41:01
about Iowa and many Minnesota in this one. Iowa has dominated, France has
41:07
dominated PJ. Fleck. I can't wait till my buddy hears this. He
41:10
hates PJ. Fleck. He thinks he's the biggest blowhard out there. But
41:15
I just can't see. I mean, caliak Man as the quarterback at Minnesota
41:20
has not been solid all year long. I can't imagine he's gonna be effective
41:23
throwing the ball into this Iowa defense, because not only does Iowa out scheme
41:28
most teams, but they've actually got better talent than what most people realize.
41:32
Their linebacking corps is gonna be in the NFL. They've got a defensive tackle
41:36
that's gonna be in the NFL. And so this is a struggle for these
41:39
guys. And on the flip side with Iowa, don't worry about Brian Farence
41:45
getting his contract renewed. If he doesn't score twenty five points a game,
41:46
he's not gonna get there. But by once they get past this game,
41:51
though, the rest of their schedule is a joke. But I don't think
41:52
I think they win this game similar to what they did against Wisconsin. They
41:57
just get out there and suffocate that team a lot of three, grind it
42:00
out, wait for somebody to make a mistake, and then they pounce on
42:04
it. Last week, the Missouri punter out through in one pass he had
42:08
more touchdowns and more yards than Deacon Hill did. The quarterback that's at Iowa.
42:14
If you haven't seen this kid play, tune in for just a second.
42:16
It's gonna give you some rest in peace, brother, but it's gonna
42:20
give you some more. Jared Lorenzen vibes. My man is sixty three two
42:23
sixty. He is not moving around in the pocket. If someone breaks through,
42:29
motherfucker is hitting the ground because he can't do anything like he tries to
42:32
roll and it just I mean it's like they're literally you know, second grimace.
42:37
I mean, just wrap your arms around him and just roll him over.
42:38
He's going to the ground and that stuff. So I don't know if
42:42
it's official play for us or not, but thirty one and a half is
42:45
too sweet of a number to not bet under on that, because that's a
42:47
fun game to watch her out there, grind her out in thirty one and
42:50
a half. This is the definition of it. Ain't under pill, it's
42:53
over. This is it right here? I am telling you both these things
42:58
are terrible. Do you realize that Friends' contract says he's almost got to cover
43:02
this. Then I have a chance to get over this number. Because Minnesota's
43:07
actually pretty good on defense, I mean minus minus minus what Michigan did to
43:13
them, they've actually played pretty well against in this st Michigan's offense. So
43:17
it is just this is an ugly game, man. If they go under
43:22
thirty one for the first time, because I've been laughing about. You're not
43:28
gonna keep telling everybody to contrug I don't care if his contract says he's got
43:32
to score eighty games, They're not got don care if it says he got
43:36
to score fifteen game and he doesn't. If they win the Big Twelve,
43:40
I mean the Big ten West, they are not going to fire their offense
43:44
coordinator because guess what's happening. If you fire him, you're firing his dad
43:47
too. And no one's ever gonna take that job, because just that's why.
43:53
How would y'all have Ain't exactly easy. There ain't got eight people in
43:59
that state that a d one guy is coming out every year. Nobody you
44:02
know, one time Obama or USC or somebody big time went to Iowa to
44:07
sign a player. And if they go it's for alignment. They don't have
44:12
a skilled guy one up there. I mean, look, man, it
44:15
may be ugly football, but the dude wins. And I watched him come
44:21
down and beat Youill moorehead in a ballgame with Mississippi State having three first rounders
44:25
on a team, and that dude goes and beats them. Don't tell me
44:30
he can't coach football. The dude can coach football. I mean I was
44:32
watching that game thinking, if he took this talent and played his talent,
44:37
he went by four or five touchdowns, he would That's the bottom line.
44:40
Just unfortunately, it's very hard to get the talent up there to do it.
44:44
He's a good football coach. But guy, this came goes under thirty
44:46
one. Oh man, this is an indictment of offense in twenty twenty thirty.
44:52
Oh boy. That's all we got, folks. This week. A
44:54
couple of games I'll throw out the lane on or at least like I think
44:59
if Duke, If Leonard's back, I think Duke's a live dog. I
45:04
don't know if they could come back and win that game at Florida State,
45:06
but I definitely think could be a much better game. The lines at thirteen
45:08
and a half. But I wouldn't play it without him. We said that
45:13
last week, and then they came out and won and covered same thing with
45:16
Miami. If Tvd's playing, I like this team against Clemson, but I
45:22
don't know if Tyler Van Dimes is playing or not. I've heard he's banged
45:24
up. I haven't seen a practice report for today. As we record this
45:28
on Wednesday. But those are two interesting games that I've got, and that's
45:31
about it for me. I'm gonna give you two more and then we can
45:36
call it a day. The Hugh Freeze Bowl, Baby, I'm gonna tell
45:40
you something. He's gonna throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Rebels on
45:46
Saturday. I don't think it's gonna be enough. I ain't Old Miss probably
45:52
covers that game. But when I tell you he's gonna throw everything he's got
45:58
at that game, I'm not kidd That'll be the best game Auburn plays,
46:02
not Alabama, and Auburn at the outside of Alabama all year long. Freeze
46:07
is gonna give it all he'd got and make no mistake going down there and
46:12
looking like, hello, Elis, you've got nothing to do with this ball
46:15
game. They mailed it in. They are gonna give it all they got.
46:19
Old Miss coming off of bye week, interested to see does that offense
46:22
keep humming coming out of that byeway. You could seem start a little slow,
46:27
could definitely see it seems started a little slow. It happens a lot
46:30
out of a bye week. Auburn's a tough place to play. That's a
46:32
routy environment when they get down there for a big game and that trust me,
46:37
this is gonna be a big game. And then the other one I've
46:38
got for you, Illinois live dog against Wisconsin at home. But I mean
46:45
Illinois at home plus two and a half. But you got to back up
46:50
quarterback in Braydon Locke, who with third team at Mississippi State under Mike LEAs.
46:57
He was signed with Lee, so he likes to run this kind of
46:59
wide open offense. But candidly, from everything I was told to actually hear,
47:04
he was the betting. You know, he's thirteen, with the better
47:07
of the quarterbacks that were that were younger, because Baylor is obviously struggling with
47:12
one of the guys who transferred as well. But I think that's gonna be
47:15
a big difference in the ball game this weekend. No Mordecai for Wisconsin going
47:20
on the road, back up quarterback playing for the first time with significant action.
47:24
I do not expect him to play well. This is a pretty good
47:28
still a pretty good Illinois defense, and while not as good as I think
47:31
they thought they were going to be, still a pretty good defense. I
47:34
think they'll be able to create enough habit getting to the quarterback that they're a
47:37
live dog at home live dog. And if they get two wins over Wiskey
47:43
back to back, that'll be wild. Illinois beat these ship out of these
47:46
guys last year, and I mean this was a much better Illinois team last
47:51
year. He's got this year. But I do agree with you, and
47:52
so it'll be it'd be be fascinating. Navy do they cover? Does Navy
47:59
stay with than eleven of Air Force? Man? You know, last week
48:04
I've covered this that I had. I had a money line parlay with which
48:07
I won the line with Wyoming. But I had a money line parlay and
48:12
I'd already covered it with Pitt and it was paying gigantic odds, and I
48:17
really felt like Wyoming had a chance to win that game, and they did.
48:22
It's not the Air Force is better than certainly than they've been. I
48:27
mean, people talking, I don't care if they go twelve and oero they
48:30
put those jake legs and tape, let them take one of the bull spots.
48:35
And I'm gonna be so pissed because they do not have any talent.
48:37
And I know this is Navy, but yet it feels like they alll bell
48:40
stayed within this number. Looks like the weather's gonna be bad up there too,
48:44
maybe a little bit of rain and win. If that's the case.
48:46
Yeah, I think you do take I think you do take Navy. I
48:50
think air Force is much better than this team this met and that granted,
48:52
they just got their little little curse. They got ranked for the first time
48:57
this season, and we know what happens with those teams that happened to get
49:00
ranked the first time. Seems like they puffed their chest out a little bit
49:04
bigger that week and then lay an egg the next week. I just don't
49:06
think they do it this week in Stavy. I don't think cover eleven.
49:08
But I think air Force easily wins the Commander Trophy this year, So that's
49:13
what I'd be leaning there. But folks, it's been a lot of fun.
49:15
Hit us up on Twitter, smash just give us a like, give
49:19
us to your friends whatever it may be. Having a pretty good season and
49:22
joined some college football, and we are looking forward to rolling things out.
49:25
We may start trying to put out some earlier midweek shows because now we've got
49:30
full midweek slates, which is never a bad thing. We've only got like
49:32
twenty eight more days in a row, or something like that of football.
49:36
On every single day that being said, thank you for everything. We'll talk
49:39
to you next week.