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The TechTrends Podcast | When a Nation Talks: The Safaricom Sale Question · The TechTrends Podcast

• 0:03
  This is the Tech Transport cast. You'll go to podcast for the
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  latest in tech innovation and the digital world.
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  Safaricom connects villages to cities, farmers to markets,
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  mothers to children, hustlers to capital.
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  It processes more money than most African central banks.
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  It knows when you wake up, where you travel, how you pay, and who
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  you trust. Safaricom is not just a company.
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  Safaricom is infrastructure. And now it's for sale.
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  In January 2026, quietly and deliberately, the Kenyan
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  government made a move that could redefine ownership,
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  sovereignty and economic power in the Republic. 15% one buyer,
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  244 billion shillings and a nation divided.
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  We have negotiated for the best price 34 shillings which is 24%
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  higher and you can prove us wrong by telling us that we
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  would be telling you that a premium to the public, to the
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  other shareholders. Yeah, we can do that in our in
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  house because I I have the director there, he's taking
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  note. Vodacom has been a shareholder
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  of Safari Com since its reception.
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  So when you want to negotiate for someone else to buy your
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  business, you are better off negotiating with an existing
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  shareholder who understands the business.
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  So if you get someone else from outside and they come, there are
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  chances that they will disrupt the entire model of this
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  business. Hello and welcome to the Tech
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  Trans Podcast. I'm your host Pai Kamal, sitting
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  in for Nixon Canali. Today we are unpacking the most
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  consequential corporate decision of this decade, the government's
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  plan to sell 15% of Safaricom to South Africa's Vodacom Group.
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  This is not just about shares, it's about control, trust, and
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  who owns Kenya's digital future. For millions of Kenyans,
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  Safaricom isn't abstract, it's daily life.
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  So let's slow down and look at what's actually on the table
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  right now. Safaricom's ownership looks like
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  this. Vodacom Group at 40%, the
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  government of Kenya at 35% and the Kenyan public and
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  institutions at 25%. And the proposal government
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  sells 15%, dropping its stake to 20%.
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  The price is 34 shillings per share.
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  At 34 shillings that's 204.3 billion shillings and a 40.2
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  billion shilling dividend advance and treasury walks away
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  with 244.5 billion. But here is the pivot point.
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  If this deal goes through, Vodacom Stakes rises to 55% for
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  the first time since 2000. Safaricom becomes majority
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  foreign owned. This isn't sheer stewardship
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  anymore. This is control, so why sell
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  these assets now? Kenyans public debt stands above
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  11 trillion shillings. Debt servicing it's over 60% of
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  government revenue. Treasury says the cupboard is
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  bare. The government is framing this
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  as strategy not panic. Treasury CS John Bundy calls it
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  monetizing mature asset. The idea is simple use of fire
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  come to and infrastructure that is roads, dams and rail without
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  raising taxes or borrowing more. If you had to look at that
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  reality, that means that at least at the point of starting,
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  55% of that company is owned by foreigners or foreign investors.
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  How does that do to the national psyche of people that have been
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  saying we have this take here, how do you come the nerves of
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  those that are saying how do you sell off a company fetching you
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  up to 18 billion shillings per year?
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  Yeah. First of all, I want to make it
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  very clear that what we are doing is what we call unlocking
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  value for a mature investment. The Safaricom PLC as an
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  investment for the Republic of Kenya as it is today is a mature
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  investment and that is what you can unlock.
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  You can unlock the value and invest it in other productive
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  ventures. And I will tell you for a fact
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  some that this probably the right time to divest because
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  again this company has is surviving on technology and
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  digital technology advances and changes.
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  Where we are is the 5G and of course the fiber.
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  The the next stage is for fintech and expansion in the
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  region. You need to free and unlock
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  government investment in this company to be able to advance.
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  But again, something else is that I don't know how much time
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  this would take, but I will tell you for a fact that for us to be
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  able to continue doing infrastructure projects in this
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  country, you need to have capital, you need to have
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  resources to do it. And presently you can do it in
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  two ways. One is taxation.
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  The other one is that now taxation, putting more hiking
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  taxes is not an option, right? Going to more debt is not an
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  option. Yet we have huge investment
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  projects that we need to put money in to be able to realize
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  economic growth that would create job opportunities to our
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  country. Right now, you need to have more
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  creative ways of raising funds and this is one of them.
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  Now the other thing that I would also mention, it is not that the
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  government of Kenya will now forgo, there's 16 or 18 billion.
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  We will still get almost about 10 billion every year if we
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  continue with the current rates of performance or dividend or
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  profitability of Safaricom PLC. What you forgo is probably about
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  7 billion per year, which if we were to reason that way in
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  straight line, we are receiving 200 billion today.
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  How long will you receive that money at 7 billion shillings?
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  If we were to take that simplistic arithmetic, it's
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  about 30 years now depending on where you invest this money
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  because I think the fear maybe Kenyans have here is that we are
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  divesting in Safaricom 15%, getting this money and consuming
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  it or putting it in budgetary support.
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  That is not what we intend to do.
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  What we intend to do is to productively use the resources
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  that we are going to raise by divesting 15% in Safaricom and
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  any other privatisation, put it in a national infrastructure
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  fund, which then we would use to link the private sector and
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  institutional investors with public investment or public
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  infrastructure. But critics say the timing and
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  the price don't add up. Member of Parliament for Kiharo,
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  Din De Niro and others argue Safaricom is undervalued.
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  The Government of Kenya is proposing to sell Safaricom PLC
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  the 15% stake at 34 shillings. Kenya's need to know that
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  Safaricom shares were trading at an average of 45 shillings in
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  2021, valuing Safaricom PLC at 1.8 trillion Kenya shillings in
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  2021. And of course that is before
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  Safaricom even invested in Ethiopia, an investment that is
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  actually becoming a very good decision for Safaricom.
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  And what I just want to say that is that the people who are on
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  the other side of the table in this negotiation of the sale and
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  especially the people from the National Treasury, they are
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  either self interested, incompetent or both.
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  Ethiopia is nearing break even. Embassy keeps expanding, Cloud
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  and fintech revenues are growing.
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  They believe Safari com could be worth 70 to 80 shillings per
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  share in a few years. So are we solving today's
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  problem by selling tomorrow's prosperity?
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  This isn't just a spreadsheet debate.
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  It's about risk and trust. Now, Safaricom's Chief Executive
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  Officer Peter Andagua says that the telecommunication company
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  was not Privy to the mechanisms that were used to determine the
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  share price in the plant sale of the 20% stake.
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  While submitting his presentation to the Joint
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  National Assembly Committees of Finance and Planning, as well as
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  Public Debt and Privatization, the Safaricom boss told the
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  committee that the changes in shareholding will not affect the
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  company's operations, adding that the proposed transaction
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  does not alter Safaricom's governance framework, regulatory
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  oversight, or even the national jurisdiction.
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  This year's Treasury has told us that before.
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  Therefore, it's not very, it's not very bad.
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  It looks good. What else do you think we should
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  consider? So that we we read maximum we
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  still need Treasury, National Treasury to come and clarify
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  this kind of things because as as Quenya said to forgo 11
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  billion, it is a lot of money. Do you think that if we follow
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  this procedure, the price per share would achieve beyond 34
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  shillings as currently negotiated with the government
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  And if yes, why and if yes, by how much?
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  The further government giving you that the worth shilling a
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  share if it cost the market, it might be less than that or it
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  might be more than that. Was was it not possible to allow
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  the people of Kenya to just buy instead of giving a foreign
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  company? As.
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  Representing the company, we were not involved in determining
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  or actually seeking to see what the right share price is because
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  when 2 shareholders are having a transaction, you leave it to
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  them to actually determine how they want to conclude a
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  transaction. Safaricom is not just a telco.
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  It is M pesa government payment, identity verification, health
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  systems and security integrations.
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  It's where the state meets the citizen digitally.
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  Safaricom CEO Peter Ngua disagrees.
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  He says Safaricom remains Kenyan in character, governed by Kenyan
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  law, regulated locally, headquartered in Westlands.
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  But ownership still matters at 55%.
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  Vodacom control strategy, capital allocation and long term
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  direction. Even with government veto
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  rights, the center of gravity shifts outward.
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  This isn't paranoia, it's power arithmetic.
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  How? What is the certainty from your
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  statement that the new boat which will be composed posted
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  This reorganization will not change the business course, will
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  not reorganize the innovation. There is proper legal
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  infrastructure, there is safeguards for the process of
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  this. There is no transfer of
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  operational control, no dilution of regulatory authority and no
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  weakening of governance standards arising from this
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  transaction. But not everyone is celebrating.
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  Safaricom dealers are sounding the alarm, warning that the
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  Government's plans sale of its stake in the telecom giant could
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  put thousands of small businesses at risk.
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  Appearing before the National Assembly's Finance Committee
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  today, the dealers called for a seat on the Safaricom board and
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  stronger protections for their outlets, saying decisions made
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  at the top could have direct consequences for employees,
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  shopkeepers and families across the country.
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  A number. Of the.
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  Levels that are generated by Safaricom Kenyans of money
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  whenever there. Is a bird, for example.
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  Floated Kenyans somehow from somewhere.
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  Get money. Why would you want to pay at a
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  premium for an asset that we believe has a lower, I mean as
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  the? True price which is below.
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  Which? Is not.
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  What is in the market? As we record this, Parliament is
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  debating session of paper #3 of 2025.
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  The High Court is weighing the Gachoka petition.
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  This is no longer a boardroom decision.
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  It's a national referendum in slow motion.
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  This decision will shape how Kenya thinks about public
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  assets, sovereignty and development for decades.
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  Whatever happens next, one thing is clear.
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  The Green Giant will never be the same way again.
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  For the Tech Trans podcast, I'm Pai Kamau.
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  Special thanks to production team for making this show
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  possible. The Tetris Podcast is produced
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  by Tetris Media Studios with sound design by Portable Voices
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  and research support from Tixom Canali, Alan Yongira, and the
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  Trek Friends Media editorial team.
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  Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave us a review on
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  your favorite podcast streaming platform.
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  Until next time, keep innovating, stay informed, and
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  stay ahead with the Tech Friends Podcast.