Transcript

9.10.26 · Science Show KY

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to Radio Eye's Diary of Science and Nature.
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Speaker 2: Your readers, Kelly Taylor.
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Speaker 1: I'll have articles on the topics of science and nature,
0:08
Speaker 1: but first, a reminder, Radio Eye is a reading service
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Speaker 1: intended for people who are blind or have other disabilities
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Speaker 1: that make it difficult to read printed material. Starting out
0:20
Speaker 1: from Scientific American, we have an article that is headlined,
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Speaker 1: These Four Bold Projects Could Actually Change Our Clean Energy Future.
0:32
Speaker 1: This is written by Megan Bartels, Dan Vergano, Cody Cottier,
0:36
Speaker 1: and Andrea Thompson. Two decades ago, renewable energy was a
0:41
Speaker 1: bit player on the world stage. Today, renewables account for
0:45
Speaker 1: nearly half of all global electrical capacity, according to the
0:49
Speaker 1: International Renewable Energy Agency. And there's a lot more in
0:53
Speaker 1: the pipeline. It's a stunning surge showing that the renewable
0:57
Speaker 1: revolution appears unstoppable. Clean energy still faces challenges, though. To
1:02
Speaker 1: meet them, countries and companies are taking some big swings
1:06
Speaker 1: to push this revolution into a new phase with ambitious
1:09
Speaker 1: projects that.
1:10
Speaker 2: May or may not pan out.
1:13
Speaker 1: One of the most significant problems is that solar and
1:16
Speaker 1: wind are intermittent and the lithium ion batteries currently available
1:20
Speaker 1: can't store enough energy from renewables to reliably meet demand.
1:26
Speaker 1: To squeeze the most juice out of solar and wind,
1:28
Speaker 1: we need longer term storage, leading some in the industry,
1:32
Speaker 1: notably in China, to reach for a technology that has
1:35
Speaker 1: been shelved for decades. Chinese companies are also pushing the
1:40
Speaker 1: limits on how large and how far offshore turbines can
1:43
Speaker 1: be so they can take advantage of steadier, stronger winds.
1:48
Speaker 1: Other ventures are trying to broaden the appeal of geothermal
1:51
Speaker 1: energy and crack the code on tidal power, one of
1:54
Speaker 1: the biggest untapped sources of power on the planet. Here's
1:58
Speaker 1: some of the most audacious of these projects. Geothermal Energy
2:04
Speaker 1: for Almost Anywhere. The name of the project is Fervo
2:10
Speaker 1: Energy's Cape Station, located in Utah. The name of the
2:15
Speaker 1: technology is Enhanced Geothermal Systems.
2:18
Speaker 2: Or EGS.
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Speaker 1: The power generation is a projected 100 megawatts by early 2027.
2:25
Speaker 1: with 500 megawatts in total under construction. How it works.
2:32
Speaker 1: Fervo drills, Fervo, the company, drills down and then sideways,
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Speaker 1: creating a network of long fractures in rock as deep
2:40
Speaker 1: as almost 2,750 meters. It then pushes water through these
2:46
Speaker 1: cracks to draw heat out of the earth. The large
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Speaker 1: network of fissures exposes much more water to much more
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Speaker 1: hot rock, than single-pipe geothermal setups do, increasing efficiency. To
3:00
Speaker 1: execute the design, FERVO has translated oil and gas fracking
3:04
Speaker 1: pressurized fluid injections from softer sedimentary shale rock to hotter,
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Speaker 1: harder volcanic rock. Experts say seismic monitoring is advanced enough
3:16
Speaker 1: that work can be paused if risks of quakes above
3:20
Speaker 1: magnitudes that people can feel rise too high. At a
3:24
Speaker 1: demonstration facility called Project Red, FERVO connected test wells to
3:29
Speaker 1: a pre-existing power plant where it has been generating 3
3:33
Speaker 1: megawatts of power since late 2023. Unlike solar and wind,
3:38
Speaker 1: geothermal energy can be used 24-7. But to be economical,
3:43
Speaker 1: traditional geothermal requires perfect geology, hot rock that water naturally
3:48
Speaker 1: passes through, and a reliable, recharged water source to keep
3:52
Speaker 1: the heat flowing. This necessity has limited its use to
3:56
Speaker 1: a handful of spots on Earth. By adding fractures, EGS
4:02
Speaker 1: creates more places where geothermal is economically feasible. Other companies
4:08
Speaker 1: have targeted different geothermal strategies, and geothermal has been met
4:12
Speaker 1: with a wave of enthusiasm from the U.S.
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Speaker 2: Government.
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Speaker 1: What the experts say... is that Jefferson Tester, a Cornell
4:20
Speaker 1: University engineering professor, says he's excited by the work Vervo
4:24
Speaker 1: is doing, but worries that the company might have promised
4:27
Speaker 1: its funders too much too soon. Quote, you've got to
4:31
Speaker 1: prove that this thing actually works for a sustainable period
4:34
Speaker 1: of production, he says. The proof will come only with
4:37
Speaker 1: what you find out in the field, end quote. The
4:42
Speaker 1: Power of the Tides. The name of the project is Maygen. M-E-Y-G-E-N.
4:51
Speaker 1: It's located in Scotland. The name of the technology is
4:55
Speaker 1: tidal stream energy, and the power generation, 6 megawatts, increasing
5:00
Speaker 1: to 65 megawatts by 2031.
5:04
Speaker 2: How it works.
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Speaker 1: Since 2016, Maygen, located between the Scottish mainland and the
5:10
Speaker 1: Orkney Islands, has been the world's largest tidal stream energy project.
5:16
Speaker 1: It exploits the fact that the tides that ebb and
5:18
Speaker 1: flow along our planet's coastlines carry tremendous energy with a
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Speaker 1: harvestable potential. Estimated at 1,200 terawatt hours per year, more
5:29
Speaker 1: than a quarter of annual power generation in the U.S.,
5:33
Speaker 1: that energy can be harnessed in much the same way
5:36
Speaker 1: that wind farms harness moving air. Quote, in very simple
5:40
Speaker 1: layman's terms, you're putting a wind turbine underwater, says Drew Blacksland,
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Speaker 1: CEO of Proteus Marine Renewables, which developed Maygen's four 1.5
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Speaker 1: megawatt turbines. The turbine blades spin with each incoming and
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Speaker 1: outgoing tide, capturing the ocean's kinetic energy to power a
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Speaker 1: generator that produces electricity. Unlike other renewable energy sources, tides
6:06
Speaker 1: are highly predictable. Quote, we can tell at any point
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Speaker 1: in time, any day, exactly how much energy we're producing,
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Speaker 1: Blacksland says. which you can't do with wind or solar,
6:17
Speaker 1: end quote. Tides are as brutal as they are reliable, though.
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Speaker 1: Saltwater corrosion, ocean debris, and the sheer force of rushing
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Speaker 1: water often cause turbines to fail. But one of Meijin's
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Speaker 1: turbines has reached a major milestone in performance, running for
6:33
Speaker 1: more than seven years without unplanned maintenance. Built on massive
6:37
Speaker 1: foundations and equipped with blades that adjust to align with
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Speaker 1: the tides, the turbines are engineered to withstand extreme fast-flowing
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Speaker 1: marine currents. Maygen plans to add 20 turbines by 2031,
6:51
Speaker 1: boosting its capacity to 65 megawatts. According to Ampeak Energy,
6:56
Speaker 1: which owns the project, the site could ultimately produce nearly
7:00
Speaker 1: 400 megawatts. What the experts say. Although tidal energy will
7:06
Speaker 1: always be limited by geography and is unlikely to catch
7:09
Speaker 1: up to wind and solar anytime soon, it could account
7:12
Speaker 1: for 10% of the UK's energy needs. Blaxland says they've
7:18
Speaker 1: had a great track record of long-term generation for multiple
7:21
Speaker 1: large machines. According to Brian Polagi, a mechanical engineer at
7:27
Speaker 1: the University of Washington who specializes in marine energy, quote,
7:31
Speaker 1: the hyperbole is well-deserved, end quote. Energy from the air.
7:38
Speaker 1: The name of the project is Huayan Salt Cavern. It's
7:42
Speaker 1: located in China. The name of the technology is compressed
7:45
Speaker 1: air energy storage, and the power generation is 600 megawatts.
7:52
Speaker 2: How it works.
7:54
Speaker 1: When demand for electricity is low, surplus energy generated by
7:58
Speaker 1: solar and wind farms can be used to power compressors
8:02
Speaker 1: that squeeze air to high pressures and pump it underground
8:06
Speaker 1: into a cavern. Then, when demand rises, the pressurized air
8:11
Speaker 1: can be released to generate power. This technology, known as
8:15
Speaker 1: compressed air energy storage, or CAES, dates to the late 1970s,
8:21
Speaker 1: but never really made it into the mainstream, says Paul Denholm,
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Speaker 1: senior research fellow at the National Laboratory of the Rockies.
8:30
Speaker 1: In recent years, though, China has commissioned several CAES plants,
8:34
Speaker 1: including the world's largest, the Hawaiian, or Huai'an, Huai'an, Salt
8:41
Speaker 1: Cavern Project, expected to power some 600,000 homes. Salt caverns
8:47
Speaker 1: are especially well-suited to this purpose. Rock salt is more
8:50
Speaker 1: or less impermeable and deforms to self-seal any fractures that
8:55
Speaker 1: may form, preventing the stored air from leaking out. There
8:59
Speaker 1: is a potential problem with this type of energy storage.
9:02
Speaker 1: Compressed air cools as it re-expands. meaning it has to
9:06
Speaker 1: be warmed before it can spin a turbine efficiently. This
9:10
Speaker 1: project hopes to solve that issue by storing thermal energy
9:13
Speaker 1: in molten salt and water to reheat the air. The
9:20
Speaker 1: success of renewables depends on the ability to store energy
9:23
Speaker 1: for times when the sun isn't shining and the wind
9:26
Speaker 1: isn't blowing. The energy storage market is currently dominated by
9:30
Speaker 1: lithium-ion batteries. but Denholm says they are economically viable only
9:35
Speaker 1: for storage durations of a few hours. He argues that CAES,
9:40
Speaker 1: though expensive up front, is easier to scale and can
9:44
Speaker 1: store and supply energy for a day or longer, depending
9:47
Speaker 1: on the size of the cavern. Quote, air is free,
9:51
Speaker 1: Denholm says, and a hole in the ground can potentially
9:54
Speaker 1: be cheap, end quote. What the experts say. Although the
9:59
Speaker 1: technology is mature, according to Piros Kavinpour, a mechanical engineer
10:04
Speaker 1: at the University of California, Los Angeles, geology limits its potential.
10:10
Speaker 1: Outside of China, there are only two major CAES plants
10:13
Speaker 1: in the world, in Germany and in Alabama, and both
10:17
Speaker 1: rely on salt caverns. but a recently permitted project in
10:21
Speaker 1: California would use hard rock caverns, which could expand possibilities
10:25
Speaker 1: for the technology. Quote, it's been 30 years since we
10:29
Speaker 1: built one of these things in this country, Denholm says,
10:32
Speaker 1: but he remains cautiously optimistic. Deep Sea Offshore Wind. Name
10:41
Speaker 1: of the project is Sanxia Linghong Hao, the Three Gorges
10:45
Speaker 1: Pilot in England. The location is in English. The location
10:51
Speaker 1: is China. The name of the technology is floating offshore
10:55
Speaker 1: wind turbine and the power generation 16 megawatts. China's Sanxia
11:03
Speaker 1: Linghonghao offshore wind turbine installed in May is the largest
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Speaker 1: single floating turbine in the world. It floats some 70
11:13
Speaker 1: kilometers offshore and more than 50 meters of water. atop
11:17
Speaker 1: a partly submerged platform rather than a piling embedded in
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Speaker 1: the sea floor, as most offshore turbines are, which would
11:25
Speaker 1: be too expensive in such deep waters. In its mooring system,
11:30
Speaker 1: polyester cables and anchor chains act as springs that help
11:34
Speaker 1: to absorb the force of waves and wind. The turbine's blades,
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Speaker 1: with a tip height of 270 meters, are built to
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Speaker 1: withstand winds up to 264 kilometers per hour, according to
11:46
Speaker 1: Three Gorges Corporation, faster than those produced by the strongest typhoons.
11:53
Speaker 1: Offshore winds are stronger and steadier than nearshore winds, so
11:57
Speaker 1: turbines far from coasts can deliver more power with better
12:01
Speaker 1: reliability than nearshore turbines. Perhaps 80% of potential offshore wind
12:06
Speaker 1: energy is in deep waters that require floating, anchored turbines.
12:11
Speaker 1: Far offshore, they also avoid the community complaints about visibility,
12:16
Speaker 1: that plague near-shore wind farms.
12:19
Speaker 2: With the U.S.
12:20
Speaker 1: Halting leases and permits for offshore wind facilities, the action
12:24
Speaker 1: on the technology has moved to Asia and Europe. Italy
12:27
Speaker 1: alone has about 90 far offshore wind facilities under environmental review.
12:34
Speaker 1: What the experts say. These offshore floating wind facilities are
12:39
Speaker 1: technologically mature and have crystal clear low-cost energy potential, says
12:44
Speaker 1: marine scientist Roberto Danovaro of Italy's March Polytechnic University. The
12:52
Speaker 1: only real issue is their ecological impact, he says. Quote,
12:57
Speaker 1: if adequately assessed, located, and mitigated, their ecological and environmental
13:01
Speaker 1: impact can be negligible, and their benefits can be huge,
13:05
Speaker 1: Danovaro says. Now we'll turn to the BBC Science Focus magazine.
13:14
Speaker 1: Can and will happen. A deadly tsunami from the sky
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Speaker 1: could soon hit the U.S., warn experts. Written by Jessica McCallum.
13:25
Speaker 1: Late last month, the wall of water, mud, and debris,
13:28
Speaker 1: likely triggered by a glacial collapse high in the Himalayas,
13:32
Speaker 1: tore through villages and hydropower sites along the Nepal-China border.
13:38
Speaker 1: At least 1,287 people are known to have died after
13:40
Speaker 1: the flash flood. with 5,000 more still missing. The disaster
13:48
Speaker 1: may be a warning of what's to come. Experts say
13:52
Speaker 1: it's a matter of when, not if, another deadly tsunami
13:56
Speaker 1: from the sky strikes one of the world's icy mountain regions,
14:00
Speaker 1: including in the United States. In fact, just last year,
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Speaker 1: Alaska's Tracy Arm Fjord was hit by a landslide-triggered wave
14:11
Speaker 1: taller than the Eiffel Tower. The 481 meter high wave
14:19
Speaker 1: struck at 526 a.m. before ships had entered the area.
14:27
Speaker 1: Had it happened just a few hours later, the consequences
14:30
Speaker 1: could have been devastating. The only people known to have
14:34
Speaker 1: been nearby were three kayakers camping along the fjord who
14:38
Speaker 1: had an extraordinary escape. Quote, we scrambled out of our
14:43
Speaker 1: tent and were stunned to find our entire camp obliterated
14:46
Speaker 1: by a tsunami, they later wrote on a GoFundMe page
14:50
Speaker 1: set up to replace their lost equipment. The trio survived
14:54
Speaker 1: the wave and were later spotted by a passing yacht,
14:57
Speaker 1: which brought them to safety. They were lucky to escape,
15:00
Speaker 1: but some scientists warn it's only a matter of time
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Speaker 1: before someone isn't. Professor Bill McGuire, a climate scientist and
15:08
Speaker 1: professor emeritus at University College London, says glacier collapses pose
15:13
Speaker 1: a growing danger to communities below ice covered mountain regions. Quote,
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Speaker 1: the event isn't only a sign of our times, but
15:22
Speaker 1: a pointer to the future, he says. It is a
15:25
Speaker 1: threat that is only going to get bigger as the
15:28
Speaker 1: planet gets hotter, end quote. And it's not just people
15:32
Speaker 1: who live in these mountainous regions who are at risk. Tourists,
15:35
Speaker 1: including those aboard cruise ships, could also find themselves in
15:39
Speaker 1: the path of these disasters. So which places are most vulnerable,
15:44
Speaker 1: and is there any way to know when the next
15:45
Speaker 1: one will hit? Although a landslide is suspected of triggering
15:49
Speaker 1: the flash flood in Nepal, scientists don't yet know whether
15:53
Speaker 1: climate change or regional warming played a role.
15:58
Speaker 2: Quote, it is not.
16:00
Speaker 1: Obvious that this is the case, and it will take
16:03
Speaker 1: some time to figure out, says Patrick Lanette, a professor
16:07
Speaker 1: of civil and environmental engineering.
16:10
Speaker 2: At the University of Southern California.
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Speaker 1: Quote, potentially changes to the glacier condition the area for
16:17
Speaker 1: a landslide, or it may have just been a massive
16:20
Speaker 1: landslide with a glacier sitting above it, end quote. That
16:24
Speaker 1: uncertainty reflects just how complicated these disasters can be. Climate
16:29
Speaker 1: change is only one factor among many, says Alton Byers,
16:33
Speaker 1: a research scientist and mountain geographer at the University of
16:36
Speaker 1: Colorado Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. Quote, they
16:42
Speaker 1: are certainly related to the impacts of a warming planet
16:45
Speaker 1: and cryosphere, he says, but they're also influenced by the
16:49
Speaker 1: dynamic geology of mountains, gravity, tectonic activity, and people settling
16:54
Speaker 1: in floodplains, end quote. But elsewhere, scientists have found a
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Speaker 1: clearer connection between a warming climate and these extreme events.
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Speaker 1: Alaska's Tracy Arm megatsunami last year is one example. Quote,
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Speaker 1: After some detailed work, it became clear that the rapid
17:14
Speaker 1: retreat of a glacier set the scene for the huge
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Speaker 1: slide and the following mega tsunami, says Lynette. There are
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Speaker 1: several ways warming can increase the danger. McGuire says rapidly
17:26
Speaker 1: melting glaciers can destabilize mountain slopes, while rising temperatures can
17:32
Speaker 1: thaw the permafrost that helps hold them together. Put simply,
17:36
Speaker 1: permafrost is a combination of perpetually frozen ground, rock, soil, debris,
17:42
Speaker 1: and ice found in high-altitude alpine regions. In Alaska, McGuire adds,
17:49
Speaker 1: rapid ice loss can also remove enormous amounts of weight
17:53
Speaker 1: from the crust below, allowing faults to move and potentially
17:57
Speaker 1: increasing the risk of earthquakes. Quote, in a circular manner,
18:02
Speaker 1: quakes caused by ice loss have the potential to trigger
18:05
Speaker 1: glacier collapse and breach meltwater lakes, end quote. All of
18:11
Speaker 1: this means glacier collapses are becoming a growing threat to
18:15
Speaker 1: people living downstream of high mountain regions, particularly where there
18:19
Speaker 1: are large.
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Speaker 2: Amounts of snow and ice.
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Speaker 1: McGuire says, quote, this includes Alaska and some of the Rockies,
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Speaker 1: the European Alps, and especially the Himalayas, end quote. Similarly,
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Speaker 1: Lynette expects events like Alaska's mega tsunami to become increasingly common. Quote,
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Speaker 1: Tracy Arm type events will continue to happen seemingly at
18:44
Speaker 1: an increasing rate in fjords and other water bodies with
18:48
Speaker 1: rapidly retreating glaciers, end quote. Now we have an article
18:54
Speaker 1: from Fox Weather. Grand Canyon faces long road to recovery
19:00
Speaker 1: as National Park Service unveils plan after deadly flooding. Early
19:06
Speaker 1: recovery work is underway on Grand Canyon National Park's infrastructure
19:11
Speaker 1: after rainfall triggered devastating flooding that transformed the landscape and
19:16
Speaker 1: disrupted the water supply system. After rain and monsoon storms
19:21
Speaker 1: triggered flash flooding in the Grand Canyon, the iconic park
19:25
Speaker 1: became a messy, muddy landscape littered with debris. As a result,
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Speaker 1: two people lost their lives in the deadly flood conditions.
19:35
Speaker 1: Cleanup and recovery efforts are now underway with the National
19:38
Speaker 1: Park Service conducting infrastructure assessments, stabilization work, and working to
19:44
Speaker 1: restore a reliable water supply to the park's south rim.
19:49
Speaker 1: The flooding on August 29th caused extensive damage to the
19:52
Speaker 1: legacy Trans Canyon waterline, including about 40% of the old
19:57
Speaker 1: pipeline between Phantom Ranch and the north rim. Thankfully, the
20:01
Speaker 1: pipeline installed on the south side was unharmed by the flooding.
20:06
Speaker 1: The Bright Angel Creek and Roaring Springs intake areas also
20:11
Speaker 1: sustained major damage. As a result, the park is now
20:14
Speaker 1: accelerating work to bring the infrastructure into service. While repairs continue,
20:20
Speaker 1: the next task is water conservation, as the south rim
20:24
Speaker 1: of the canyon relies on stored water. During the latest
20:29
Speaker 1: severe storm event, the stored water declined by about 37 feet,
20:34
Speaker 1: according to National Park Service. In light of this, officials
20:39
Speaker 1: are asking residents, employees, visitors, businesses, and partners to do
20:44
Speaker 1: their part in water conservation. Current conservation efforts are saving
20:49
Speaker 1: about 137,000 gallons of drinking water each day, giving crews
20:54
Speaker 1: more time to complete critical work on the water system.
21:00
Speaker 1: To prevent more water loss for the South Rim, officials
21:03
Speaker 1: are setting up potable water tanks, bottled drinking water, handwashing stations,
21:09
Speaker 1: portable showers, laundry facilities, and portable toilets. Teams are also
21:15
Speaker 1: monitoring the disruption system for leaks and any unusual water
21:20
Speaker 1: use to preserve as much as possible. Some leaks are
21:25
Speaker 1: addressed right away, while others require more careful calculations, as
21:28
Speaker 1: some repairs require flushing an affected portion of the water
21:32
Speaker 1: system before it can safely return to service. This action
21:36
Speaker 1: often consumes more water than the leak itself. On top
21:41
Speaker 1: of this, five 2,500-gallon potable water tanks have already been
21:45
Speaker 1: placed around the South Rim.
21:47
Speaker 2: With more on the way.
21:49
Speaker 1: According to NPS, more than 13,500 gallons of potable drinking
21:54
Speaker 1: water have been established throughout the South Rim, which aims
21:58
Speaker 1: to buy crews more time.
22:00
Speaker 2: As they work towards a long-term solution.
22:04
Speaker 1: The park is also evaluating responsible options for supplementing the
22:07
Speaker 1: water supply, the NPS said. Any water introduced into the
22:12
Speaker 1: existing system must meet specific water quality and chemical compatibility
22:17
Speaker 1: requirements to avoid damaging the distribution and treatment systems. With
22:23
Speaker 1: cleanup efforts underway and waterline repairs continuing, residents hope to
22:27
Speaker 1: see their reliable supply of clean water restored as soon
22:30
Speaker 1: as possible.
22:33
Speaker 2: Now an article from earth.com.
22:36
Speaker 1: Amazon forests are growing back, but most of the recovery
22:41
Speaker 1: is fragile. A new satellite-based analysis has taken the first
22:46
Speaker 1: biome-wide look at how the Amazon's regrowing forests are actually faring.
22:53
Speaker 1: The analysis included how old these forests are, how connected
22:57
Speaker 1: they are to intact forests, and whether anyone even legally
23:01
Speaker 1: owns the land they're growing on. The picture that emerges
23:05
Speaker 1: is dominated by young, fragile patches clinging to the edges
23:09
Speaker 1: of a much larger, more resilient forest. The study was
23:13
Speaker 1: carried out by researchers from several Brazilian institutions, led by
23:17
Speaker 1: the National Institute for Space Research. When primary forest is
23:22
Speaker 1: cleared or degraded, secondary vegetation often moves in to fill
23:26
Speaker 1: the gap. This vegetation can do real work, storing carbon,
23:31
Speaker 1: supporting biodiversity. regulating water cycles, restoring soil health. But not
23:37
Speaker 1: every patch of regrowth is equally valuable or equally likely
23:41
Speaker 1: to survive. Some patches are old and expensive, having had
23:49
Speaker 1: decades to knit themselves back into something resembling forest. Others
23:54
Speaker 1: are barely a few years old, tiny, isolated, and one
23:58
Speaker 1: bad clearing decision away from disappearing. Most maps of the
24:02
Speaker 1: Amazon haven't drawn that distinction. They show where regrowth exists,
24:07
Speaker 1: but not whether it's likely to last. That gap in
24:10
Speaker 1: the data matters, since Brazil has committed to restoring 12
24:14
Speaker 1: million hectares of native vegetation by 2030, much of it
24:19
Speaker 1: in areas where land ownership is murky at best. To
24:24
Speaker 1: close that gap, the research team combined years of satellite
24:28
Speaker 1: land cover records into a detailed profile of regeneration across
24:32
Speaker 1: the entire Amazon biome. Rather than lumping all secondary vegetation
24:38
Speaker 1: into one category, they considered patch age, total area, core area,
24:44
Speaker 1: boundary shape, and isolation. They also looked at nearby vegetation
24:48
Speaker 1: and who, if anyone, holds legal title to the land.
24:52
Speaker 1: That combination sorted the Amazon's regrowing patches into four distinct profiles,
24:58
Speaker 1: initial regeneration, isolated small fragments, consolidated regeneration, and largest patch.
25:09
Speaker 1: Initial regeneration turned out to be the most common by far,
25:13
Speaker 1: accounting for 56.6% of all mapped polygons. Consolidated regeneration, the
25:20
Speaker 1: kind conservationists actually want to see, made up 38.13%. The
25:25
Speaker 1: numbers paint a fairly stark picture. Working from a 2022
25:28
Speaker 1: data set of 689,288 secondary vegetation polygons covering 16.25 million hectares,
25:31
Speaker 1: the researchers found a mean weighted age of just 6.96 years.
25:33
Speaker 2: A statistical survival model.
25:52
Speaker 1: Estimated a half-life of roughly 7.14 years, meaning only half
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Speaker 1: of secondary vegetation patches are expected to persist beyond that point.
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Speaker 1: Size skews small too. Just over 42% of patches measured
26:10
Speaker 1: between 2 and 5 hectares, and another 39.4% fell between
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Speaker 1: 5 and 20 hectares. More strikingly, 81% of patches had
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Speaker 1: no core area at all beyond a 120 meter edge zone.
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Speaker 1: Almost none of them have any interior habitat shielded from
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Speaker 1: the effects of being right up against a forest edge.
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Speaker 1: There's an upside buried in those numbers though. Connectivity to
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Speaker 1: primary forest is high. Nearly 70% of patches directly touch
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Speaker 1: primary vegetation. And for 73.8% of patches, Primary forest is
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Speaker 1: the nearest neighboring vegetation type of any kind. That proximity
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Speaker 1: gives even young regrowth a real shot at recovering biodiversity
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Speaker 1: and function over time, provided it's given the chance.
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Speaker 2: One of the.
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Speaker 1: Study's more uncomfortable findings concerns ownership. Nearly 44% of secondary
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Speaker 1: vegetation sits on land with no formal registration at all.
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Speaker 1: This governance blind spot leaves a huge share of Amazon's
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Speaker 1: regrowth without any clear party responsible for protecting or managing it.
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Speaker 1: The patches that fared best, older, larger, more interconnected, tended
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Speaker 1: to sit inside protected areas or traditional territories. Consolidated regeneration
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Speaker 1: patches averaged 10.29 years old Isolated small fragments, by contrast,
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Speaker 1: averaged just 7 hectares and sat roughly 535 meters from
27:53
Speaker 1: their nearest neighboring patch, isolated enough to make recovery more difficult. Altogether,
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Speaker 1: the initial regeneration cluster alone covers 8.5 million hectares, more
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Speaker 1: than half of all mapped secondary vegetation in the study. Well,
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Speaker 1: that's all for today's Diary of Science and Nature. Your
28:15
Speaker 1: reader is Kelly Taylor. Stay tuned for further programming on
28:19
Speaker 1: Radio Eye.