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Grains: 2025 Crop Tour Day 1 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the 2025 Professional Egg Marketing Crop Tour brought to you by Green Key Egg.
• 0:07
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• 0:09
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• 0:12
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• 0:19
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• 0:26
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• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: Alright.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: Today I have Jaden with me.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: We are on day one of the crop tour across western Iowa and eastern Nebraska.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: We'll come out with our Nebraska final yield estimate here tonight on this podcast.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's uh my tenth year on this crop tour across the United States.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: So once again, we are gonna take about a 22 or 2300 mile road to uh road tour across the Midwest here, I guess.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, uh, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, back on over.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: So uh back into Minnesota and South Dakota.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna have uh our first day here, just talk about that here with Jaden.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh in general, Jaden, how many stops did we make today?
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: We made three stops, Mike.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, so we made three stops uh through kind of uh Western uh Western Iowa, north uh northwestern Iowa, there Sous Center area.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: So we got to see a lot of uh a lot of uh wind damage through that area and some good crops, and then we kind of dove in eastern I Nebraska and then dove straight south.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, what can you tell me about like northwest Iowa and kind of what we saw there as we got off the interstate at Hudson and worked our way east?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, as as as we got off the exit there on uh the Hudson exit, um we we could definitely tell there was uh there were some excess winds were pretty evident in those areas.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um some of the samples we took were about 20 bushels lower than two years ago.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, yes, they've had 20 inches of rain falling in June in June and July, but I think I think they they could receive like a record crop, but I think those winds are really the limiting factor there, Mike.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: I believe so.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: It it seemed like the record potential was taken out with those winds, anyways.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: And other than that, I think it looked really good.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we had some really good crop potential, but uh our samples they showed yeah, 20 20 bushels off probably from what we saw out of the same field two years ago when it was corned.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: So um maybe not a record, took the record out of it, but the especially with the winds going through at least.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: It looks like what they've had just enough stress between variant temperatures, uh being a little bit volatile, some hail damage, uh the excess moisture here.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: It looks like they're primed to have some disease issues as well that we need to keep track of.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: So uh that could uh we'll see how the rest of the crop looks here, but I think fudge side is gonna be a big one through northwest Iowa there.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, if they get continued excess moisture, if that's gonna be just too much for that.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, not a bad crop by any means, just not as good as it maybe could have been there uh after that duratio.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: It was weird, you'd see like one field and it'd be completely flattened, like population left of like 2,000, probably, right?
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it was pretty extreme.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: And then the next field would be fine, and then a mile later you'd see some more.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: But kind of that stretch going east there, we were going right along it after that exit, and it it stretched for a long ways.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: It was basically all the way from Hudson to our stop into Sioux Center type area there, so it it definitely had some wind damage.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: But field we checked there uh on the one stop, they didn't have any damage, the other field did.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um it'll be a little bit variable, I think, uh, through that part of the world, but still you had a decent crop potential.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: As we worked our way from there into like northeast Nebraska, I noticed right away everything was green, the ditches were green.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: Normally that's an area where you cross over the river and bang, you just uh you can get into some really dry pockets, the ditches show stress, and this year it's excess moisture.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh our stop there in northeast uh Nebraska through those farms, they had over 12 inches of rain through the month of July.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh what can you tell us about some of the other statistics with our stops that we made there?
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they're they're in Nebraska here.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it seems like the farmers have pretty high hopes for yields this year, and we were told northeast Nebraska had about 12 inches of rainfall in July alone.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: But like you said, typically an overabundance of rainfall in those sandy soils is probably a good problem to have.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the record for Cedar County was 204, and some some farmers think we can definitely push the limits on that.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: And the samples we took definitely confirmed that potential, but didn't quite blow the doors off.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it didn't blow the doors off, but it was better than the record yield potential that uh that we had in in those years from our samples that we compared with, and then just crop condition wise, it was fantastic.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: As we work south, uh it brings up the question with that excess moisture, is there some are how are those low spots gonna do, etc.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: through Nebraska?
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: Um is that gonna be a limiting factor?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Is disease gonna be a limiting factor with the weather we've had?
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe if we don't get a record in that state, that's probably one of the reasons why.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: Because as we worked towards that last stop of the day in York County, Nebraska, uh the the samples looked the same, the conditions look the same.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: On the drought map, we got into a little bit of dryness, but not a whole lot really.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, nothing you could really see, maybe a little bit from the road here or there in some touchy spots, but it it was pretty hard to tell.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: And being 95% of that county is under a pivot, um, that county looks like it's doing uh really, really well off to a really good start there.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um so I would say York County, our samples ranged like 240 to 260, and that was right inside of what we had last year, which was a record for that area, I believe, as well last year.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: So um in general, the state of Nebraska we think could be our old record, was what?
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: It was 194.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: And we thought 198 was gonna be our final record yield here.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we think it has potential to do that.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't like blow the doors off crazy yield samples or anything like that.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: Conditions were pretty good, but um I thought 198 was a a conservative-ish number for the state of Nebraska.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: It looked really good.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think disease because some of the hailstorms that went through, some of the variants with uh temperatures, I think it opened the door up a little bit that we could have some disease problems.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: But in general, I think we have a really good possibility of uh of above trend line yields and uh a record yield for Nebraska here of 198.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: So that was our first day of the crop tour.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna be into western Iowa again tomorrow, reach our way into Missouri and then over into Illinois and Indiana, but we'll probably only make it to Illinois tomorrow night, I think, from the looks of it.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: So uh so far, not nothing crazy for what we thought we would see at least.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: I thought the wind damage in northwest Iowa was a little bit stronger than what I anticipated, but it was like it was a field wide, right?
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it it wasn't 50 miles wide like we saw in 2020 out of that Doratio.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: So um it'll be interesting to see what we see in the rest of Iowa to try to kind of combat that northwest corner of the state being a little bit sketchy.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: But remember last year, you know, that Algona, Emmitsburg, that area was so, so wet last year.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: So um, you know, given the potential of what Iowa did last year, even with that, with some of those outstanding yields, uh, it'll be interesting to see what we see tomorrow too by Ottoman.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you for your time today.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: Any other final thoughts, Jaden?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, I I think it's just gonna be interesting to see that wind blown damage, you know, in Iowa to see if, you know, is most of that crop snapped off or is it can it tip back up?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think that'll be interesting to see.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: It seemed like uh especially one of the one farmers we talked to, he thought 50% was leaning on those fields, 50% was snapped, and the stuff that was leaning was coming back pretty well and standing back up straight.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: So um, all right, we'll catch you tomorrow, guys.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: If you have any questions this week, we'll be going from Sunday today.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: This is day one, and then we'll wrap up on Thursday and have all of our final results out Thursday night and Friday.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time.