Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NCAAF Bowls Best Bets Friday 1/2/26
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
- 0:06Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
- 0:08Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
- 0:12Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
- 0:15Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
- 0:18Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
- 0:21Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
- 0:26Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Oh in four that
- 0:30Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
- 0:34Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached
- 0:38Speaker 1: into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my broins hat. Man,
- 0:42Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
- 0:45Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:47Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:51Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
- 0:53Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
- 0:57Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
- 1:00Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die, at least
- 1:04Speaker 1: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go
- 1:07Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
- 1:11Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
- 1:13Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
- 1:16Speaker 1: the slump perse, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody
- 1:21Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
- 1:24Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:33Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody sowed back with you? Toadsool sports. It
- 1:37Speaker 1: is January twod Friday, twenty twenty six. Maybe still doesn't
- 1:44Speaker 1: seem quite right, doesn't feel right. But we went three
- 1:48Speaker 1: and ohero on the first day of the new year,
- 1:50Speaker 1: so a nice way to start the new year. I
- 1:52Speaker 1: think similarly to last year. I had to win on
- 1:56Speaker 1: the first day last year as well, including my one
- 2:00Speaker 1: bowl game. We've been good with the college football Bowls
- 2:03Speaker 1: slash playoffs. Man, I think we're five and one, so
- 2:07Speaker 1: obviously I'll take that. And the only loss was kind
- 2:09Speaker 1: of bs with New Mexico, so we could be undefeated
- 2:13Speaker 1: right now, although probably we should have lost on the
- 2:16Speaker 1: San Diego State one, so it all kind of works out. Man.
- 2:20Speaker 1: Basketball went al right yesterday two and one. You see
- 2:23Speaker 1: Davis got the cover that was a little bit iffy
- 2:25Speaker 1: if you look at the box score. I think they
- 2:27Speaker 1: won by about eight they covered, but you know, I
- 2:31Speaker 1: mean the game was kind of a little bit closer
- 2:33Speaker 1: than that. So but I'm gonna take the win. You see,
- 2:38Speaker 1: Riverside got absolutely destroyed. I don't know what to tell
- 2:42Speaker 1: you about that. I don't know what happened in that game.
- 2:44Speaker 1: I'm gonna look at the box score later if I
- 2:47Speaker 1: can even stomach it. I think it was just the
- 2:50Speaker 1: wrong play. I thought the situation was good for it.
- 2:53Speaker 1: We did get the win with Montana State. And by
- 2:55Speaker 1: the way, if you watch my Instagram video for the
- 2:58Speaker 1: Montana State game, I completely neglected one thing that made
- 3:02Speaker 1: that play even better, which was that who was my
- 3:07Speaker 1: Northern Colorado was who Montana State was playing. Northern Colorado
- 3:11Speaker 1: is the team that eliminated Montana State from the Big
- 3:13Speaker 1: Sky Conference tournament last year in I believe the semifinals,
- 3:18Speaker 1: So that was a that was actually a huge revenge
- 3:22Speaker 1: spot for Montana State as well, because Northern Colorado is
- 3:25Speaker 1: the team that ended their season last year and this
- 3:27Speaker 1: is the first time I'm pretty sure that they played
- 3:29Speaker 1: them since then, so that was huge. And it was
- 3:32Speaker 1: even better than that too, because that look ahead that
- 3:34Speaker 1: I said was a look ahead to Montana for Northern
- 3:37Speaker 1: Colorado because Montana won the conference last year. Guess who
- 3:42Speaker 1: Montana beat in the finals. Well, I just told you
- 3:44Speaker 1: who they beat. They beat Northern Colorado. So Northern Colorado's
- 3:48Speaker 1: look ahead spot to Montana there was actual that's actually
- 3:52Speaker 1: a look ahead to their huge revenge game because the
- 3:55Speaker 1: last time they played Montana, Montana was eliminating them from
- 3:58Speaker 1: the Big Sky turn in the final in the championship game.
- 4:02Speaker 1: So that play that was even better than I even
- 4:05Speaker 1: thought it was. Man, that had Montana State written all
- 4:09Speaker 1: over it in so many ways, that was like a
- 4:12Speaker 1: the dude man. I wish I had realized it when
- 4:17Speaker 1: I talked about it on the show, But that play
- 4:18Speaker 1: was that was probably the best one of the day.
- 4:21Speaker 1: That was crazy. And then we did get Oregon right
- 4:25Speaker 1: in the bowl game as well, and Texas Tech was
- 4:27Speaker 1: just all out of sorts. Texas Tech had a ton
- 4:30Speaker 1: of turnovers, which made the result look a little bit
- 4:34Speaker 1: better than it probably should have been for Oregon. It was.
- 4:37Speaker 1: I think the game was closer than it looked at least,
- 4:40Speaker 1: though Oregon was definitely the better team, though Oregon did
- 4:44Speaker 1: have more chances to score where they failed. I think
- 4:48Speaker 1: they only had one touchdown until they got that garbage
- 4:50Speaker 1: time touchdown at the end, and they also had a
- 4:54Speaker 1: chance to cause they were up by sixteen late in
- 4:57Speaker 1: the game. It was sixteen and nothing with like four
- 4:59Speaker 1: minutes left or something. And I complained about this on
- 5:01Speaker 1: Twitter if you follow me on Twitter, because that's still
- 5:04Speaker 1: a two score game. I mean, it takes two to
- 5:06Speaker 1: two point conversions plus the two touchdowns, but still a
- 5:10Speaker 1: field goal in that scenario would be huge because then
- 5:13Speaker 1: you're four steps to score three times. They were gonna
- 5:15Speaker 1: go up nineteen and nothing. They really they were just
- 5:18Speaker 1: settling for the field goal. They ran the football, running
- 5:21Speaker 1: the clock down. It set up like a thirty eight
- 5:24Speaker 1: yard field goal attempt, probably thirty seven, and they missed
- 5:28Speaker 1: that field goal. I'm like, are you kidding me? All
- 5:31Speaker 1: of it was set up on a off of a
- 5:33Speaker 1: Texas Tech turnover or turnover on downs I think. But still,
- 5:38Speaker 1: so that was a little weird. Oregon settled for a
- 5:40Speaker 1: lot of field goals in that game, so it actually
- 5:43Speaker 1: could have been a bigger blowout for Oregon in some ways.
- 5:46Speaker 1: But I mean, in the end, I think the final
- 5:50Speaker 1: result was I guess almost indicative of what the game
- 5:53Speaker 1: was really the game game to Oregon's defense was awesome
- 5:56Speaker 1: in the game. I mean, that's really what it came
- 5:57Speaker 1: down to. Texas Tech's offense couldn't get any ethan going
- 6:01Speaker 1: in that game. That is just what it came down to.
- 6:04Speaker 1: They I think they only got down really like. They
- 6:08Speaker 1: were only threatening to score like once or twice legitimately
- 6:11Speaker 1: in the whole game. And of course they threw an
- 6:13Speaker 1: interception in the end zone the one time they were
- 6:15Speaker 1: really threatening, and if they'd score there, it would have
- 6:18Speaker 1: cut the game to thirteen to seven at the time.
- 6:20Speaker 1: But that interception, like pretty much, I think that kind
- 6:24Speaker 1: of ended the game. But I'm gonna take it. I
- 6:27Speaker 1: mean we got to Oregon right regardless, so I'll take it.
- 6:30Speaker 1: The other Bulls were just kind of madness. I mean,
- 6:35Speaker 1: I thought Indiana would win. I did not expect them
- 6:37Speaker 1: to win in a giant blowout like that, but Indiana.
- 6:41Speaker 1: What I forgot to mention is the Rose Bowl there
- 6:44Speaker 1: in Indiana's game that was actually happening in rain. I
- 6:47Speaker 1: forgot to mention that there was rain in Pasadena, a
- 6:50Speaker 1: rare rayn Rose Bowl game, and the rain I think
- 6:54Speaker 1: actually helped Indiana bit because the rain can mess with
- 6:58Speaker 1: the passing attack more than anything else, and that's what
- 7:00Speaker 1: Alabama wants to do. Indiana, they're better in the trenches
- 7:04Speaker 1: and they run the football, so I think the rain
- 7:06Speaker 1: did help Indiana in that game. But Indiana is the
- 7:10Speaker 1: only buy team in college football so far to win
- 7:14Speaker 1: their game. It's crazy. In Georgia, I expected Georgia to win.
- 7:18Speaker 1: I don't know what happened in that game. Man, Georgia
- 7:21Speaker 1: back in the same Bowl they were in last year,
- 7:23Speaker 1: same quarterback, Lane Kiffin being gone from Mississippi, I thought
- 7:27Speaker 1: would have some impact because of course they could just
- 7:31Speaker 1: they could be too lane without coaching, man, I mean
- 7:33Speaker 1: Georgia I thought was gonna have a huge coaching edge
- 7:35Speaker 1: with Kirby Smart, which I don't think I was gonna
- 7:37Speaker 1: mention that on the show yesterday. I think I kind
- 7:39Speaker 1: of forgot to mention. It still didn't appen, absolutely crazy.
- 7:44Speaker 1: And then yeah, there was a safety at the end
- 7:47Speaker 1: of the game too, which is really bizarre. The game
- 7:49Speaker 1: was an insane game, just back and forth. I don't know, man.
- 7:53Speaker 1: So now we have one of the semi final games
- 7:55Speaker 1: is Miami against oh Miss, Like you already know the
- 8:00Speaker 1: winner of the championship is gonna be whoever wins Indiana
- 8:03Speaker 1: versus a Oregon like that, I mean, whoever wins that
- 8:07Speaker 1: game is gonna be a pretty substantial favorite in the final.
- 8:10Speaker 1: I would have to imagine, regardless of which opponent they face,
- 8:12Speaker 1: But they're gonna be coming off of a big game
- 8:15Speaker 1: because Indiana Oregon. I mean, Indiana is probably only gonna
- 8:18Speaker 1: be like a three to three and a half way
- 8:19Speaker 1: favorite there. I mean, the line's already out. I don't
- 8:21Speaker 1: know what it is, but that game is gonna be
- 8:24Speaker 1: a punishing game, so it is possible the winner of
- 8:27Speaker 1: that game does lose. But I have Indiana as the
- 8:31Speaker 1: champion in my bracket. We'll see. I had kind of
- 8:34Speaker 1: settled on like the winner of the Indiana Oregon game
- 8:37Speaker 1: would be the champion. Is basically what I said. So
- 8:40Speaker 1: and it seems like it's gonna be right. Tyson, what's up?
- 8:43Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out, Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging out? Garrett?
- 8:47Speaker 1: Horrible day? Yes, say what happened? Man? Alabama? Oh? Yeah,
- 8:52Speaker 1: Alabama in college football? I don't know what to tell you, man.
- 8:55Speaker 1: I thought the game would be closer than that. Yeah, yeah,
- 9:00Speaker 1: I don't know what to tell you, Georgia. I mean,
- 9:02Speaker 1: the market disagreed on both of them, so I shouldn't
- 9:05Speaker 1: just I hate that when I disagree with the market
- 9:07Speaker 1: and then I'm wrong. Of course, the only play that
- 9:10Speaker 1: I have was Oregon though, so that was my strongest
- 9:13Speaker 1: opinion for sure. But yeah, I mean I agreed with
- 9:16Speaker 1: you on those other two games. Didn't have as strong
- 9:19Speaker 1: of an opinion on them though. But I'm not happy
- 9:21Speaker 1: because I mean, I lost those in the in the bowl.
- 9:24Speaker 1: Pick them's like the spread pick them that I'm in.
- 9:28Speaker 1: I'm still I'm actually winning my groups, stilling out and
- 9:30Speaker 1: it's a small group, but I'm not that happy about it.
- 9:35Speaker 1: NBA sab got the nets correct by fading them, which
- 9:39Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised about. NBA I could. This is
- 9:43Speaker 1: why I completely avoided the NBA yesterday. I don't want
- 9:46Speaker 1: anything to do with it. Nothing to do with it.
- 9:49Speaker 1: Today's board, we're gonna get into it. It's a horrible
- 9:51Speaker 1: board today. I'm gonna dude, I don't know what to
- 9:55Speaker 1: tell you. I have one college basketball game today and
- 9:57Speaker 1: it's it almost feels like I'm forcing it, to be honest,
- 10:00Speaker 1: like I'm I have nothing else today. I don't know
- 10:03Speaker 1: what like we can get into it. The college basketball
- 10:06Speaker 1: board is not huge, but I mean we're getting into
- 10:10Speaker 1: conference play here, so though are a lot of small
- 10:13Speaker 1: conference games here. Conference USA gets kind of an isolated
- 10:17Speaker 1: game on ESPN Plus at noon here, which is New
- 10:20Speaker 1: Mexico State and FIU New Mexico State. They've been decent
- 10:25Speaker 1: to start the season. They faced some decent, like mid
- 10:29Speaker 1: major opponents here. They have a pretty nice win over
- 10:31Speaker 1: New Mexico. They're in state rival, though New Mexico might
- 10:34Speaker 1: be down a little bit. New Mexico State coming into
- 10:37Speaker 1: this game off of some easy win over a non
- 10:40Speaker 1: Division one team. I think FIU is in the worst
- 10:43Speaker 1: spot here because they just took Liberty basically to the wire.
- 10:46Speaker 1: That was a huge game for FIU. Liberty known as
- 10:51Speaker 1: being one of the better teams in this conference pretty
- 10:53Speaker 1: much every year. They were really good in the A Sun,
- 10:56Speaker 1: which is why they moved up to the CUSA. Them
- 10:59Speaker 1: good to basically in whatever conference they've been in. So
- 11:03Speaker 1: I think that's a huge game for FIU. They almost
- 11:06Speaker 1: got the win coming off of that could be difficult
- 11:08Speaker 1: for them to get back up for this, but New
- 11:11Speaker 1: Mexico State does have a better record than they do,
- 11:14Speaker 1: so I'm not sure that FIU does completely overlook this game.
- 11:17Speaker 1: And it does look kind of weird to see the
- 11:20Speaker 1: team with the lesser record and FIU being a favorite.
- 11:23Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are telling you that, yeah, New Mexico
- 11:27Speaker 1: State's the better team, but it's not by that significant
- 11:29Speaker 1: of a margin, which I agree with. I would still
- 11:32Speaker 1: lean towards New Mexico State here, but the money is
- 11:35Speaker 1: really disagreeing with me on this one. Sixty two percent
- 11:38Speaker 1: of the tickets on New Mexico State, fifty two percent
- 11:41Speaker 1: of the cash on FIU. Who'll go for a pick
- 11:43Speaker 1: them to one point favorite? And again, I mean, you
- 11:46Speaker 1: saw how fading the market really went yesterday. So in
- 11:50Speaker 1: the football games at least, I like to try to
- 11:52Speaker 1: rely on my situational handicaping. But I like the market
- 11:55Speaker 1: to agree with me as well. So and if I
- 11:58Speaker 1: don't have a strong opinion, I maybe should like wave
- 12:01Speaker 1: the market a little bit heavier, more heavily into my decision.
- 12:07Speaker 1: The tickets are the that's like the amount of bets,
- 12:11Speaker 1: just literally the number of bets on that side, tracked
- 12:14Speaker 1: across whatever sports books. This is pregame dot com whatever
- 12:18Speaker 1: sports books they're tracking. I like their set of sports
- 12:22Speaker 1: books that they track better because they're tracking all the
- 12:24Speaker 1: Vegas Strip casinos, and they're tracking like a couple of
- 12:28Speaker 1: the major online sports books, and they're tracking the offshore
- 12:31Speaker 1: online sports sports books. So I think you get a
- 12:34Speaker 1: better gauge of the disparity between like where the public
- 12:39Speaker 1: is and where the professional money is. So, like what
- 12:44Speaker 1: I want to look for is I want to see
- 12:45Speaker 1: a huge discrepancy between the cash percentage and the ticket percentage.
- 12:50Speaker 1: Because of the ticket percentage is all one way, that
- 12:53Speaker 1: means there is a high volume of small bets. That
- 12:56Speaker 1: basically means it's like the recreational betters, the public betters
- 13:00Speaker 1: betting that side. But then if you see the cash
- 13:01Speaker 1: percentage going completely against it, that means that there aren't
- 13:05Speaker 1: that many bets volume wise, but it means that those
- 13:08Speaker 1: bets are huge money bets, if that makes sense. If
- 13:11Speaker 1: the amount of cash is you know, like on the
- 13:16Speaker 1: completely different side from the amount of tickets volume wise,
- 13:20Speaker 1: if that makes sense, like the amount of bets, you
- 13:22Speaker 1: know what I mean. So you're trying to separate out
- 13:24Speaker 1: where are all the small money bets, Like the public betters,
- 13:27Speaker 1: and where are the huge bets from the professionals going?
- 13:30Speaker 1: You know what I mean? So hopefully that explanation makes sense.
- 13:35Speaker 1: You're on a ten er run, nice, SOB. Hell yeah, SOB.
- 13:41Speaker 1: You had the Houston Rockets right. Yes, I was wrong
- 13:43Speaker 1: about that. I might disagree with you again on the
- 13:48Speaker 1: NETS game today, but I'll talk about it. I see
- 13:51Speaker 1: no other way of seeing the Nets game today other
- 13:53Speaker 1: than the way that I see it, though, so it's
- 13:55Speaker 1: not my play today. Though. We have Mount Saint Mary's
- 13:58Speaker 1: at Merrimac in the matt Act Conference. Mount Saint Mary's
- 14:03Speaker 1: could be in a little bit of a difficult spot
- 14:05Speaker 1: here because they just beat Iona Iona. It's always big
- 14:08Speaker 1: when you beat Iona because Iona is usually near the
- 14:11Speaker 1: top of this conference. They're almost always one of the
- 14:13Speaker 1: most competitive teams in this conference, so that's a big win.
- 14:17Speaker 1: Merrimack is still pretty new to this conference, so going
- 14:20Speaker 1: to Merrimack is a little bit of a weird travel spot.
- 14:24Speaker 1: I forget where. I don't even remember where Mount Saint
- 14:26Speaker 1: Mary's actually is though, so my apologies. I want to
- 14:29Speaker 1: say they're in Connecticut. I could be wrong about that.
- 14:32Speaker 1: They're actually in Maryland. Wow, So they have to go
- 14:34Speaker 1: up to Northern Massachusetts for this one, and then they
- 14:38Speaker 1: have to go to Quinnipiac, and that could be a
- 14:40Speaker 1: look ahead spot. Quinnipiac them been one of the best
- 14:43Speaker 1: teams in this conference pretty much since they moved up
- 14:45Speaker 1: to Division one. They're pretty good again right now in
- 14:48Speaker 1: this conference. And they actually have Saint Peter's after that too,
- 14:51Speaker 1: So those teams are both undefeated in the conference. But
- 14:55Speaker 1: the question is that they gonna Are they really gonna
- 14:57Speaker 1: overlook Merrimack, who's also actually defeated in the conference right now.
- 15:02Speaker 1: I don't know, because I don't think Merrimack is really
- 15:04Speaker 1: as good as those other teams. So I mean i'd
- 15:09Speaker 1: lean towards Merrimack, but it's a very weak lean here.
- 15:11Speaker 1: Merrimack just won at Sacred Heart. Sacred I mean, Sacred
- 15:15Speaker 1: Heart's not good. Merrimack. I think probably was a favorite
- 15:18Speaker 1: in that game. I would guess I would lay it
- 15:21Speaker 1: if I was gonna play it. In this game, Merrimack
- 15:23Speaker 1: is just sitting in a four point favorite. But you're
- 15:25Speaker 1: also asking a Merrimack team that is really really offensively deficient,
- 15:30Speaker 1: like they don't score a lot, they play slow, so
- 15:32Speaker 1: asking them to cover a number as a favorite. Not
- 15:36Speaker 1: something I really want to do either. In most cases,
- 15:39Speaker 1: like I think I've played them before. When I'm like, oh,
- 15:41Speaker 1: I'll lay two to two and a half with Merrimack
- 15:43Speaker 1: and they like barely get by, I'm like, oh my god, uh,
- 15:47Speaker 1: tickets fifty three percent of the cash on Mount Saint Mary's.
- 15:51Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll see what happens in that game. You're
- 15:56Speaker 1: on the nets today. I completely disagree with the nets today. Yes,
- 16:02Speaker 1: I do not agree whatsoever. Okay, let's uh, what am
- 16:10Speaker 1: I going to now? I don't even know? Man. Some
- 16:11Speaker 1: of these games we do have a big game up.
- 16:13Speaker 1: We have some ranked matchups today in the Big Ten
- 16:17Speaker 1: number twenty four USC the Eric Musselman USC against Michigan,
- 16:23Speaker 1: who's number two in the country, on Peacock at seven pm.
- 16:27Speaker 1: This game has an insanely high total, by the way,
- 16:30Speaker 1: because Michigan likes Toby really fast. Right now, under Dusty
- 16:33Speaker 1: may totals up to one hundred and seventy two and
- 16:35Speaker 1: a half and I probably would not want to be
- 16:38Speaker 1: on an under in this one, even though the total
- 16:40Speaker 1: is ridiculously high. When it's that high, I would say
- 16:43Speaker 1: it's over or pass over. Might be really the way
- 16:46Speaker 1: to look at this game. Because both teams play fast.
- 16:49Speaker 1: I think it is going to be a score fest
- 16:51Speaker 1: in this one. Now, I don't love what that means
- 16:54Speaker 1: for Michigan, like long term, because you know me, I
- 16:56Speaker 1: don't love teams that play way fast, play too fast,
- 17:01Speaker 1: having to run through like a gauntlet of a tournament
- 17:03Speaker 1: and win six games in a row like that. It
- 17:06Speaker 1: can take its toll on a team. So usually the
- 17:09Speaker 1: teams that slow it down a bit more tend to
- 17:11Speaker 1: do better. Although last year Florida was a somewhat fast
- 17:14Speaker 1: paced team, so it's not always the case, but more
- 17:17Speaker 1: often than not it is. And I still think Florida
- 17:19Speaker 1: should have gotten bounce in that tournament. But this game,
- 17:23Speaker 1: I mean, there isn't a whole lot to see as
- 17:25Speaker 1: far as the situation. I mean, you know, both teams
- 17:26Speaker 1: are gonna show up for this. This is a huge game.
- 17:29Speaker 1: Michigan is obviously the better team. USC just beat some
- 17:33Speaker 1: non D one team. Michigan just trounced macnice Mechnice. We
- 17:37Speaker 1: know they're a pretty solid program right now in the Southland,
- 17:42Speaker 1: although maybe on their way back down a little bit.
- 17:44Speaker 1: But Michigan absolutely handled them, put up over one hundred
- 17:47Speaker 1: and ten points. You gotta think, though, if you're gonna
- 17:51Speaker 1: play the side on this game, there's gotta be no
- 17:54Speaker 1: value in playing Michigan though. I mean, they've just looked
- 17:57Speaker 1: so good, you know, the line has to be at
- 17:58Speaker 1: least somewhat inflation on the Michigan side. There were twenty
- 18:01Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite here, seventy two percent
- 18:04Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, seventy one percent of the
- 18:07Speaker 1: money on USC, So I'll agree with it. I would
- 18:11Speaker 1: agree with taking the points with USC, but it's not
- 18:13Speaker 1: something that I am really really looking to do in
- 18:18Speaker 1: a high total game as well. I mean, Michigan could
- 18:21Speaker 1: definitely still win that game by margin, and in almost
- 18:24Speaker 1: the line in a way almost looks too big between
- 18:27Speaker 1: two ranked teams like you usually don't see two ranked
- 18:30Speaker 1: teams facing off with a spread being in the twenties.
- 18:34Speaker 1: I mean, that is just crazy. But I still think
- 18:36Speaker 1: that it's probably a little bit too high because the
- 18:39Speaker 1: books can't really do anything except skew it towards Michigan slightly.
- 18:44Speaker 1: So it's an addressing game head to head. Yeah, I'm
- 18:48Speaker 1: gonna explain why I think the Bucks are the right
- 18:51Speaker 1: side in that game when I get to it, dude,
- 18:54Speaker 1: maybe maybe my explanation should at least keep people off
- 18:57Speaker 1: of making a dangerous bet. I don't know what happened.
- 19:03Speaker 1: What are we talking about here, Nate the best American
- 19:06Speaker 1: point getter? We're talking about hockey? I assume Billy g
- 19:12Speaker 1: Who are you talking about? Billy Graham, the televangelists? What
- 19:15Speaker 1: what's happening here? Who? Who got snubbed from the Olympic team?
- 19:19Speaker 1: What are we talking about? Yeah? I know we're talking
- 19:21Speaker 1: about USA hockey. We who? Wait, who's the best player?
- 19:25Speaker 1: Who's the best USA scorer? Who are we talking about?
- 19:30Speaker 1: Austin Matthews? Is he? Is he an American? I don't
- 19:32Speaker 1: even know? Man, did he gets snubbed? I'm not a
- 19:35Speaker 1: huge fan of Austin Matthew's just because he plays for
- 19:37Speaker 1: the Maple Leafs. In the matt Act. We do have
- 19:41Speaker 1: actually a pretty good matchup here between Sianna and Iona.
- 19:44Speaker 1: I mean, for people that like these mid major basketball games,
- 19:47Speaker 1: this might be a good one. These two teams are
- 19:50Speaker 1: both gonna be in the in the mix for trying
- 19:53Speaker 1: to win this conference this year. Sianna's having a good
- 19:55Speaker 1: season so far. Sianna did just play Indiana, which is
- 19:59Speaker 1: a pretty difficult opponent, and now they're playing another road game,
- 20:02Speaker 1: which does make it a little bit more difficult for them,
- 20:04Speaker 1: I think as far as how this game sets up.
- 20:07Speaker 1: Although they were not close against Indiana, they lost by
- 20:09Speaker 1: twenty one. Iona just took what's definitely an ugly, an
- 20:15Speaker 1: uglier loss to Mount Saint Mary's. I own a. I'm
- 20:17Speaker 1: sure it was a favorite in that game, which I
- 20:20Speaker 1: think I talked about when I talked about Mount Saint
- 20:21Speaker 1: Mary's a second ago. So I do think that the
- 20:25Speaker 1: way to look at this is to look towards Iona.
- 20:27Speaker 1: Hear the travel spot of the favors them a little
- 20:32Speaker 1: bit more as well. They're playing at home. The line
- 20:34Speaker 1: has dropped a little bit from one and a half
- 20:35Speaker 1: to one. But Sianna, I mean to me, they kind
- 20:38Speaker 1: of seem to be a little bit of the hot
- 20:40Speaker 1: commodity right now, although maybe that's just because I'm in
- 20:43Speaker 1: the in the world of gambling here, so we know
- 20:46Speaker 1: who Siana is and we know what they're doing this season,
- 20:48Speaker 1: but maybe the professionals don't. Maybe the professionals are excuse me,
- 20:52Speaker 1: maybe the recreationals, recreational betters don't maybe they won't be
- 20:56Speaker 1: on this game at all. But I think the way
- 20:58Speaker 1: the situation sets up, I mean leaning towards Iona, but
- 21:01Speaker 1: I don't like it very much. Jason Robertson Matthews, Yeah,
- 21:07Speaker 1: I don't like Matthews. He's a he's a prissy boy man.
- 21:12Speaker 1: He plays for the Leafs. They're not a tough team, man.
- 21:15Speaker 1: The Bruins pretty much always dominate the Leafs in the playoffs.
- 21:19Speaker 1: I was at the playoff game Game one, the last
- 21:22Speaker 1: time the Bruins played the Maple Leafs in the playoffs.
- 21:25Speaker 1: I was at game one of that series prior to
- 21:29Speaker 1: being at the game with one of the games where
- 21:30Speaker 1: the Bruins lost to Floor, So that was a lot
- 21:33Speaker 1: of fun. Yeah. I don't even really know who Robertson
- 21:37Speaker 1: is though. Another game in the matt Act that's interesting.
- 21:40Speaker 1: This matt Ac Conference has really, I think most of
- 21:44Speaker 1: the interesting games today. Marist at Saint Peter's. These two
- 21:49Speaker 1: teams are both doing pretty well in the conference as well.
- 21:52Speaker 1: Now Marist just lost to quinnipe Act. That was a
- 21:54Speaker 1: big game. These two teams both pretty much near the
- 21:58Speaker 1: top of the conference, and Marius does have Iona next.
- 22:01Speaker 1: Now the question is gonna be though. Are they gonna
- 22:04Speaker 1: really overlook Saint Peter's, who's three and zero in the
- 22:07Speaker 1: conference so far. I don't know. I mean, I just
- 22:10Speaker 1: think Quinnipiac and Iona, they just have kind of more
- 22:13Speaker 1: name recognition in this conference net right now, even though
- 22:16Speaker 1: I know Iona is only one and two in the
- 22:18Speaker 1: conference so far. But they're gonna be in the mix.
- 22:21Speaker 1: I'm telling you, once this conference tournament starts, whatever, Iona
- 22:25Speaker 1: is going to be dangerous and we'll see what they
- 22:28Speaker 1: do in conference play. But that would be my read
- 22:30Speaker 1: right now. I mean, Maris, they're a team that was
- 22:33Speaker 1: just like a dorm at for a long time, and
- 22:36Speaker 1: they've actually been pretty good the last couple of years
- 22:38Speaker 1: in this conference, and they are again, but coming up
- 22:41Speaker 1: that tough game against Quinnipiac, having to play again on
- 22:43Speaker 1: the road, gotta go down to New Jersey for this one,
- 22:46Speaker 1: and then they come back and they play Iona. Next
- 22:48Speaker 1: to me, I think the situation does favor Saint Peter's
- 22:52Speaker 1: in this one. Saint Peter's, their overall record looks worse.
- 22:55Speaker 1: Saint Peter's did just win at Fairfield, which is an
- 22:59Speaker 1: okay win, though that was actually an upset win for
- 23:02Speaker 1: Saint Peter. So I'm not really looking to jump on
- 23:04Speaker 1: Saint Peter's after they pulled off a pretty decent road upset.
- 23:08Speaker 1: So it's a stay away from me as well, slightly
- 23:11Speaker 1: into Saint Peter's from me. Maris down from four and
- 23:14Speaker 1: a half to two and a half here, and I
- 23:16Speaker 1: think we're we're kind of gone from the days where
- 23:20Speaker 1: the public is on Saint Peter's the Peacocks and remembering
- 23:24Speaker 1: what they did in the tournament that one year where
- 23:26Speaker 1: they pulled off whatever it was, two or three upsets
- 23:29Speaker 1: in that ridiculous tournament run a couple of years back,
- 23:33Speaker 1: including Purdue in that tournament. Is what else is new?
- 23:37Speaker 1: Purdue losing to all these really really low conference, small
- 23:42Speaker 1: conference teams in some of these tournaments here, Although Purdue
- 23:45Speaker 1: has then better in the tournament the last couple of years,
- 23:49Speaker 1: and I think they will again this year. But we'll see,
- 23:52Speaker 1: just you know, looking ahead Brooklyn against the Nuggets, Uh yeah,
- 24:00Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, we'll see what the line
- 24:02Speaker 1: looks like with Jokic out. I don't know what you
- 24:06Speaker 1: were looking at either. Yeah, I like the Bucks in
- 24:08Speaker 1: that game, Yes, Saint Peter, Yeah, you went c got
- 24:13Speaker 1: a nice draw in that game, man getting to face
- 24:17Speaker 1: Saint Peter's. I think I kept fading Saint Peter's in
- 24:21Speaker 1: that tournament because when like an absurd upset happens, I
- 24:24Speaker 1: usually tend to just fade that team because it's like
- 24:27Speaker 1: that team didn't even expect to really even be in
- 24:29Speaker 1: the tournament, and then they get the monumental win. It's
- 24:32Speaker 1: like basically they shoot their wad, although that seems to
- 24:36Speaker 1: not be the case as much recently, but yeah, I'm
- 24:39Speaker 1: like when a team they beat Kentucky in that tournament,
- 24:42Speaker 1: and like right after that, I was like, you gotta
- 24:44Speaker 1: fade Saint Peter's in the next game, and they caught me,
- 24:47Speaker 1: and I think I kept fading them until they lost.
- 24:49Speaker 1: So I think I went one to two on the
- 24:52Speaker 1: Saint Peter's games in that tournament, unfortunately, but I think
- 24:56Speaker 1: I had you in c in that game and they
- 24:57Speaker 1: and they got me by one winner in that run
- 25:00Speaker 1: of games. I didn't do well in the tournament this
- 25:03Speaker 1: year either, though, so unfortunate. Okay, if you want me
- 25:08Speaker 1: to talk about any of these other games, I can.
- 25:10Speaker 1: Kennesaw and Liberty might be an right game. Kennesaw has
- 25:14Speaker 1: been decent in the what are they in? They're in
- 25:17Speaker 1: the Conference USA, and now I think which is I
- 25:19Speaker 1: think weird because I'm pretty sure both these teams might
- 25:21Speaker 1: have been in the Atlantic Sun Conference before and now
- 25:25Speaker 1: they're both in Conference USA, so they're kind of old
- 25:29Speaker 1: rivals in a way. But Liberty is the better of
- 25:31Speaker 1: the two teams right now. In Liberty, as I already mentioned,
- 25:34Speaker 1: they're coming off a close call against FIU, so that
- 25:37Speaker 1: could be a game that might shock them back into
- 25:39Speaker 1: focus a little bit. So I would probably lean towards
- 25:42Speaker 1: Liberty in this one. People also might look at this,
- 25:45Speaker 1: remember Kennisa being in the tournament a couple of times recently.
- 25:48Speaker 1: See the records, Oh, eight and four for Kennesaw, nine
- 25:51Speaker 1: and three for Liberty, And then you look at the spread, like,
- 25:54Speaker 1: why should Liberty be an eight and a half point
- 25:56Speaker 1: favorite here? Well, the oddsmakers are telling you which team
- 25:59Speaker 1: is really the better team? Here. Kennesaw is coming off
- 26:02Speaker 1: playing Alabama as well, though that game wasn't really that close.
- 26:06Speaker 1: They lost by eleven, but it was still a game
- 26:09Speaker 1: against Alabama, man, so they were coming off the more
- 26:11Speaker 1: difficult games. So in this game, I would say it's
- 26:15Speaker 1: Liberty or pass in this game, give me liberty or
- 26:18Speaker 1: give me death in this game Liberties again, you'd have
- 26:21Speaker 1: to lay eight and a half for that one though.
- 26:26Speaker 1: All Right, we do have a game, another Big ten game.
- 26:31Speaker 1: We got Big ten games all over the place today
- 26:33Speaker 1: and a few acc Oregon and Maryland, which is the
- 26:38Speaker 1: ugliest of the Big ten games today. But it's happening.
- 26:41Speaker 1: Oregon's having to go to the East Coast for a
- 26:43Speaker 1: true road game for the first time this year. So
- 26:46Speaker 1: it is a weird travel spot for Oregon to have
- 26:49Speaker 1: to go all the way out to Maryland. Both these
- 26:51Speaker 1: teams have underperformed, They've both been disappointments so far this year,
- 26:56Speaker 1: so it's the Disappointment Bowl basically, which one of these
- 27:00Speaker 1: teams is gonna win out. I kind of like Maryland here.
- 27:03Speaker 1: I just think it's a weird travel spot for Oregon. Man. Oregon,
- 27:07Speaker 1: they just pounded Omahasa, they look pretty good in doing that,
- 27:11Speaker 1: but again, having to travel to the East Coast, I
- 27:13Speaker 1: think for the first time this year, Maryland is actually
- 27:16Speaker 1: being lined as an underdog at home. Maryland just got
- 27:18Speaker 1: a win over Odu Old Dominion to break a lost streak,
- 27:22Speaker 1: but those three losses were not really anything to really
- 27:26Speaker 1: scoff at. I mean they lost at Iowa. That's not
- 27:29Speaker 1: easy to go in and do anything against Iowa. Man.
- 27:31Speaker 1: They lost to Michigan, we know how good they are,
- 27:33Speaker 1: and they lost to an upstart Virginia teams. Yeah, Virginia
- 27:37Speaker 1: is definitely on the rise again. I don't know if
- 27:38Speaker 1: upstart is the right word, but they're good again. And
- 27:42Speaker 1: Maryland played them to within eight on the road. Now,
- 27:45Speaker 1: I know Maryland has a step up lolling class here.
- 27:47Speaker 1: They even lost to Georgetown, so they actually they only
- 27:51Speaker 1: have one power conference win against Marquette. But Oregon's not
- 27:55Speaker 1: exactly a powerhouse right now. Man, And you actually will
- 27:58Speaker 1: get points with Maryland in this, so that would be
- 28:02Speaker 1: my lean in that one. I would take the points
- 28:03Speaker 1: with Maryland. Oregon dropped a little bit though, from three
- 28:06Speaker 1: and a half to like three or two and a
- 28:08Speaker 1: half year, but you're still getting points with Maryland if
- 28:10Speaker 1: you want to do it. It's a fairly low total
- 28:12Speaker 1: as well, one hundred and forty eight and a half.
- 28:14Speaker 1: Oregon likes to play all these ugly games, man, And
- 28:18Speaker 1: I mean, at some point the ship does have to
- 28:19Speaker 1: turn around, and maybe it's starting to his Oregon, I
- 28:22Speaker 1: think failed to cover the spread in the first like
- 28:25Speaker 1: ten games that had lines on them for them this year,
- 28:29Speaker 1: and now they have covered some since then, but they've
- 28:32Speaker 1: still been a money burner this year. Man. So although
- 28:35Speaker 1: I think Maryland kind of somewhat has as well, but
- 28:38Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets ninety two percent of the
- 28:40Speaker 1: cash on Maryland, I do not disagree with Maryland in
- 28:43Speaker 1: that game. In the Conference to USA, we have Louisiana
- 28:47Speaker 1: Tech at Middle Tennessee. Louisiana Tech coming up an easy
- 28:52Speaker 1: win over UTAP. Nothing to really see there. Don't know
- 28:55Speaker 1: if they're gonna be looking ahead to Western Kentucky because
- 28:57Speaker 1: Western Kentucky is a little bit down this year. In
- 29:00Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, I think Middle Tennessee is in a bad spot. Man.
- 29:05Speaker 1: It's as simple as that. Middle Tennessee just lost at
- 29:08Speaker 1: Houston by nine points. That was a huge performance from
- 29:11Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, even though the game wasn't really as close
- 29:15Speaker 1: as it looks like. I looked at the box score
- 29:17Speaker 1: and Houston was winning that game by like sixteen eighteen
- 29:21Speaker 1: late in the game, and I think Houston pretty much
- 29:24Speaker 1: just like packed it in and Middle Tennessee put up
- 29:27Speaker 1: some garbage time scores at the end to cut it
- 29:29Speaker 1: to nine. The game was over, but still Middle Tennessee
- 29:33Speaker 1: coming off playing a punishing Houston team. I don't know
- 29:38Speaker 1: if the spot sets up great for them here in
- 29:40Speaker 1: this one, man, although I will say Middle Tennessee's a
- 29:44Speaker 1: five and a half point favorite here, and they have
- 29:45Speaker 1: the worst record seven and five LA Tech eight and four.
- 29:48Speaker 1: So usually when you see a team with the worst
- 29:51Speaker 1: record as a favorite like that, the public wants nothing
- 29:54Speaker 1: to do with it. It does look like a fishy line,
- 29:56Speaker 1: So usually I would not want to fade a team
- 30:01Speaker 1: that's favored like that, although I was wrong about bowling
- 30:03Speaker 1: Green in a situation like that the other day. I
- 30:05Speaker 1: don't know how Miami, Ohio keeps doing what they're doing,
- 30:09Speaker 1: and it looks like the public is kind of on
- 30:11Speaker 1: the latch side. Sixty seven percent of tickets, only sixty
- 30:14Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on them. The line has
- 30:17Speaker 1: moved up from five to five and a half, but
- 30:19Speaker 1: it's a low total in the one thirties. And again,
- 30:22Speaker 1: do you really want to lay points with Middle Tennessee
- 30:25Speaker 1: after they just played Houston like that? I don't so
- 30:29Speaker 1: personally I would fade on the market read in that one.
- 30:32Speaker 1: But I don't love fading the market, especially when it
- 30:35Speaker 1: means jumping on a public underdog in a game with
- 30:38Speaker 1: a really, really sketchy looking line like that. So I
- 30:42Speaker 1: have to stay away from that game obviously. This is
- 30:45Speaker 1: this was my morning today, being like, holy crap, I'm
- 30:48Speaker 1: gonna have no place today, and then I decided, yeah,
- 30:51Speaker 1: I'll give you guys one play, but I mean in
- 30:55Speaker 1: which I'm kind of breaking that rule that I just
- 30:57Speaker 1: talked about, but not to an extent like that. We
- 31:01Speaker 1: have Louisville at Stanford in the ACC here getting into
- 31:04Speaker 1: this night slate here. Louisville's ranked sixteenth in the country.
- 31:08Speaker 1: I think they're about appropriately ranked as far as where
- 31:11Speaker 1: ken Bom has them. Kill my YouTube window here, I
- 31:15Speaker 1: have YouTube up usually to just make sure my audios
- 31:17Speaker 1: all right. Louisville's already out on the Pacific coast. They
- 31:23Speaker 1: just beat Cal handily by twenty points, and I think
- 31:27Speaker 1: Cal is better than Stanford, but you know how that
- 31:31Speaker 1: usually works out. So I think Louisville might be maybe
- 31:34Speaker 1: feeling a little bit good off of that win. And
- 31:36Speaker 1: they have to play Duke in four days. Man, so
- 31:39Speaker 1: that is a major look ahead to Duke. So I
- 31:42Speaker 1: do worry about Louisville in this spot, even though yes,
- 31:45Speaker 1: Stanford is not as good as cal Stanford is not
- 31:48Speaker 1: as good as their record looks at eleven and three.
- 31:51Speaker 1: Stanford is coming off that really really ugly loss though
- 31:54Speaker 1: to Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame might have even
- 31:58Speaker 1: been a small favorite in that game. The line was
- 32:01Speaker 1: like really close to a pick them. I think Notre
- 32:02Speaker 1: Dame is the better team between them and Stanford, but
- 32:06Speaker 1: losing forty seven to forty, I mean, it doesn't get
- 32:09Speaker 1: much uglier than that. A game with eighty seven total points.
- 32:13Speaker 1: Absolutely nobody's gonna want Stanford off of that. Man. And yes,
- 32:17Speaker 1: I know they did lose a win streak, and sometimes
- 32:19Speaker 1: when you lose a win streak that can hang you over.
- 32:22Speaker 1: But the win streak did get disrupted because Christmas Break
- 32:26Speaker 1: was in the middle of it. So I think the
- 32:27Speaker 1: first game out of the break, I think was the
- 32:29Speaker 1: bad game against cal State Northridge. So Stanford hasn't played
- 32:33Speaker 1: well coming out of the break, and I think maybe
- 32:35Speaker 1: this is the game where they show up for once, man,
- 32:37Speaker 1: So I would look to take the points with Stanford
- 32:40Speaker 1: in this one. Playing on teams that just had a
- 32:42Speaker 1: really ugly result like that is usually the way that
- 32:45Speaker 1: I like to lean. I think Louisville might look ahead
- 32:48Speaker 1: to Duke here back to back, you know, road games
- 32:51Speaker 1: here on the road in whatever it is, three or
- 32:54Speaker 1: four days out in California, late night game again. I
- 32:58Speaker 1: know Louisville's now just of the time zone, but Louisville's
- 33:02Speaker 1: up from nine to ten here total in the one fifties.
- 33:06Speaker 1: I would take the points with Stanford, but I'm not
- 33:08Speaker 1: gonna actually give it out as a player or anything.
- 33:12Speaker 1: Get back on the horse man, Jeffrey, what's up? Thanks
- 33:15Speaker 1: for hanging out. Yeah, I mean that's what you gotta
- 33:19Speaker 1: do after a bad day, man, You just gotta keep grinding.
- 33:24Speaker 1: We do also have Ohio State and Rutgers on Peacock.
- 33:27Speaker 1: I mean, this is actually a pretty ugly game as well.
- 33:30Speaker 1: Ohio State just beat Grambling whatever, and they played Rutgers.
- 33:33Speaker 1: But they do have to turn around and play Nebraska
- 33:36Speaker 1: back at home in a few days, so definitely could
- 33:39Speaker 1: be a bit of a look ahead spot here. Ohio
- 33:41Speaker 1: State has not played that many games on the road
- 33:44Speaker 1: so far. They did lose that pit which was a
- 33:46Speaker 1: winner for me on the show, and they beat me
- 33:49Speaker 1: by being in Northwestern, so I'm one and one in
- 33:52Speaker 1: those games. Now, Ohio State did play pretty competitively against Illinois,
- 33:56Speaker 1: even though I think they didn't cover, and that was
- 33:58Speaker 1: a loss for me as well. I've played on a
- 34:01Speaker 1: lot of Ohio State games, apparently because we did get
- 34:04Speaker 1: a win or no, we got a win with West
- 34:06Speaker 1: Virginia against them in this game. So yeah, I've had
- 34:10Speaker 1: a lot of Ohio State action, both on them in
- 34:13Speaker 1: against them this year. And then yeah, Ohio State came
- 34:17Speaker 1: up that nice game against UNC. I'm guessing that they
- 34:20Speaker 1: did not cover against Grambling here, which I might have
- 34:24Speaker 1: even given out Grambling as a play in that game.
- 34:26Speaker 1: I don't remember, but I think Ohio State might look
- 34:29Speaker 1: ahead here. Man, it's kind of a weird travel spot
- 34:31Speaker 1: to have to go to New Jersey and play this
- 34:34Speaker 1: Rutgers team is just really really ugly here. Rutgers should
- 34:38Speaker 1: get up for this game. Rutgers is coming off another
- 34:41Speaker 1: really ugly looking game where they didn't look very impressive
- 34:45Speaker 1: against a very weak Delaware State team, only beating them
- 34:48Speaker 1: by fifteen at home in a low scoring game. Nobody's
- 34:52Speaker 1: gonna want Rutgers in this one, man, but it should
- 34:55Speaker 1: be a game that Rutgers gets up for. Man. They
- 34:57Speaker 1: got Ohio State coming in at home. Rutgers at the
- 35:00Speaker 1: very least, you could say they're pretty battle tested. They
- 35:03Speaker 1: played Tennessee, Notre Dame, Purdue, Michigan, Seaton Hall. Yeah, they
- 35:07Speaker 1: lost all those games, but they might be able to
- 35:11Speaker 1: hang within a number here because you know they're gonna
- 35:13Speaker 1: be an underdog in this game. Yeah, Ohio State's a
- 35:18Speaker 1: double digit favorite here, a ten point favorite. Rutgers likes
- 35:21Speaker 1: to slow it down and play real ugly as well.
- 35:23Speaker 1: The totals in the one forties. I would look to
- 35:27Speaker 1: take the points, eighty percent of tickets, ninety two percent
- 35:29Speaker 1: of the cash on Ohio State in that one, But
- 35:33Speaker 1: I disagree with where the cash is right there. I
- 35:35Speaker 1: think Ohio State is definitely gonna be a public side
- 35:38Speaker 1: in that game. So those are my thoughts on that one.
- 35:43Speaker 1: I disagreed with Houston last night, and SOB and I
- 35:46Speaker 1: both disagree with the Nets tonight. For what it's worth,
- 35:50Speaker 1: I actually hate the Nets in the game tonight. I
- 35:53Speaker 1: think the only way that you could play that game
- 35:55Speaker 1: is to play Milwaukee. Yeah, the Nets whisper Man. He
- 36:01Speaker 1: got that game right yesterday, but I don't know. All right,
- 36:06Speaker 1: we have West Virginia at Iowa State. I actually thought
- 36:10Speaker 1: this line was going to be higher than it is,
- 36:12Speaker 1: and I thought the total was going to be higher
- 36:14Speaker 1: than it is. So it's very interesting. The oddsmakers kind
- 36:18Speaker 1: of seem to be signaling that West Virginia is going
- 36:20Speaker 1: to be able to ugly this game up quite a bit.
- 36:23Speaker 1: Iowa State ranked third in the country. I mean, nobody's
- 36:27Speaker 1: really gonna want to come in and fade Iowa State
- 36:29Speaker 1: right now. They're still undefeated. Everybody remembers they had that
- 36:32Speaker 1: ridiculous win at Purdue. Nobody really ever goes into Purdue
- 36:35Speaker 1: and does that. I know, Iowa State's really good, but
- 36:38Speaker 1: other than that, I mean, they have a few other
- 36:40Speaker 1: pretty good wins in here against Saint John's only by
- 36:43Speaker 1: one point and then Iowa by four, which that was
- 36:47Speaker 1: a win. Here on the show, we took the points
- 36:48Speaker 1: with Iowa and Iowa. You know what they do. They
- 36:52Speaker 1: slow the game way down like West Virginia does. Little.
- 36:55Speaker 1: Iowa was better than West Virginia, but Iowa statehead problems
- 37:00Speaker 1: with that style at home. Man, So I know Purdue
- 37:03Speaker 1: is a slow team as well, but Iowan West Virginia
- 37:07Speaker 1: unlike Purdue because Purdue is still like kind of a shooting,
- 37:10Speaker 1: offensive efficiency team even though they play half court. Iowa
- 37:13Speaker 1: and West Virginia they both like try to grind you
- 37:16Speaker 1: and they just want to make the game as ugly
- 37:18Speaker 1: as possible. So that might actually screw with Iowa State
- 37:22Speaker 1: here because Iowa State plays fast and they're not a
- 37:25Speaker 1: bad offensive team either. So it is kind of crazy
- 37:28Speaker 1: to me to see this line the total being at
- 37:31Speaker 1: one forty and a half, Like this is a game
- 37:34Speaker 1: where I think side and total are correlated here, and
- 37:37Speaker 1: the oddspeakers to me, they're kind of just shouting at
- 37:40Speaker 1: you that you probably should take the points with West
- 37:43Speaker 1: Virginia here. Iowa State's up to eighteen here. If the
- 37:47Speaker 1: total is this low in West Virginia, somehow were able
- 37:49Speaker 1: to muddy this thing up and slow it down. I
- 37:52Speaker 1: think West Virginia plus the points is probably the way
- 37:55Speaker 1: to look in this game. This is on ESPN two
- 37:58Speaker 1: West Virginia. I mean, everybody's talking about how much they stink.
- 38:01Speaker 1: Maybe Iowa State looks ahead to Baylor because Baylor is
- 38:05Speaker 1: a two loss team so far, they've looked good so far.
- 38:09Speaker 1: And you know Baylor, I mean, they're one of the
- 38:11Speaker 1: heavyweights still in the Big twelve, I would say, so
- 38:14Speaker 1: that game would be West Virginia or pass for me
- 38:16Speaker 1: in that one. All right, I'm gonna talk about yeah,
- 38:23Speaker 1: this next game. This is my one play of the day,
- 38:25Speaker 1: so I only have one play, and here it is
- 38:27Speaker 1: best bets. It's a really really bad board today, man,
- 38:32Speaker 1: And this one, I don't even know how much I
- 38:34Speaker 1: love this one. But I'm gonna go with my strength
- 38:37Speaker 1: of schedule assessment here and we're gonna go. Sorry, Nate,
- 38:41Speaker 1: We're gonna take Michigan State against Nebraska plus the points
- 38:45Speaker 1: here plus I think it's two and a half right now,
- 38:47Speaker 1: It's like, all right, if you're giving me points with
- 38:50Speaker 1: the better depfense, which is what this is, you know,
- 38:52Speaker 1: I'm gonna start looking that way on Michigan State as
- 38:55Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the tickets but seventy four percent
- 38:58Speaker 1: of the cash. I mean, this might be a situation
- 38:59Speaker 1: where public and professionals are all kind of on the
- 39:03Speaker 1: same side here, which I don't love being on the
- 39:05Speaker 1: public side obviously, but I think it's the right side.
- 39:09Speaker 1: I know, the initial line movement was on Nebraska up
- 39:12Speaker 1: to two and a half. But I think you might
- 39:13Speaker 1: see some take back on the Michigan State side, because again,
- 39:17Speaker 1: without a doubt, Michigan State at the very least is
- 39:19Speaker 1: the better depense, And you know, I like the better
- 39:21Speaker 1: depense as an underdog here. And that's where the biggest
- 39:24Speaker 1: disparity is here, because even though Nebraska has the better
- 39:27Speaker 1: offense of the two teams, the biggest disparity is between
- 39:32Speaker 1: the two deep fenses. Michigan State has the better depense,
- 39:34Speaker 1: but it's a more significant gap in the defenses. It's
- 39:38Speaker 1: a low total one hundred and forty three. Michigan State
- 39:42Speaker 1: likes to play slower. They might actually be able to
- 39:44Speaker 1: slow it down a little bit even though Nebraska is
- 39:46Speaker 1: at home. Nebraska's gonna probably try to go a little
- 39:49Speaker 1: bit faster here. Michigan State, I mean, they're just they're
- 39:54Speaker 1: totally battle tested, man. I mean, they're gonna know what
- 39:56Speaker 1: to do in this game. They're not gonna be intimidated
- 39:59Speaker 1: at all. This game is on Peacock at nine PM
- 40:01Speaker 1: for what it's worth. Here. Now, the one thing I
- 40:03Speaker 1: don't love is that, yes, I know Michigan State's ranked
- 40:06Speaker 1: ninth in the country, Nebraska's ranked thirteenth, and the lower
- 40:10Speaker 1: ranked team is the favorite here. And I know in
- 40:12Speaker 1: basketball and football, when you see the lower ranked team
- 40:15Speaker 1: being favored, it is usually a very good indicator that
- 40:21Speaker 1: you should play on that favorite. But I'm gonna buck
- 40:23Speaker 1: that trend. I told you i was gonna go against
- 40:25Speaker 1: one of my rules. I'm a rule breaker, man. I mean,
- 40:28Speaker 1: it's not set in stone, and I'm doing it here.
- 40:31Speaker 1: And the main reason for it is that Michigan State
- 40:33Speaker 1: is just way more battle testing. I mean, look at
- 40:36Speaker 1: what Michigan State has done this year. I mean, this
- 40:38Speaker 1: is what tom Izzo does, and this is why he
- 40:40Speaker 1: does it, so that once conference play starts, his team
- 40:43Speaker 1: has already been through the ring and they're not gonna
- 40:45Speaker 1: be intimidated by anybody. Michigan State already has wins against Arkansas, Kentucky,
- 40:50Speaker 1: North Carolina impressive win there, Iowa. They only lost by
- 40:56Speaker 1: six to Duke, So I mean this is a team
- 40:59Speaker 1: that's been battle test Literally, their only loss on the
- 41:01Speaker 1: season is that six point loss to Duke. No shame
- 41:04Speaker 1: in that. And then yes, I know, coming off that
- 41:07Speaker 1: game against Duke, we faded Michigan State because they were
- 41:10Speaker 1: off that huge game and they didn't play well against
- 41:13Speaker 1: Penn State and they almost lost. And I know that
- 41:15Speaker 1: was their only road game so far, but this is
- 41:18Speaker 1: a Tom Izzo coach team, and I'm not too concerned
- 41:21Speaker 1: with the fact that this is another true road game.
- 41:23Speaker 1: It's a conference road game, so it's a place where
- 41:25Speaker 1: they're fairly used to having to go to play. And again,
- 41:29Speaker 1: there are reasons why they didn't play well in the
- 41:31Speaker 1: Penn State game besides the fact that it was a
- 41:33Speaker 1: road game, although I know that was part of my
- 41:35Speaker 1: handicap that that was their first true road game, but
- 41:38Speaker 1: now this one isn't. I know Michigan State's coming of
- 41:41Speaker 1: a high scoring game against Cornell. Cornell was able to
- 41:43Speaker 1: speed them up. But I'm wondering if maybe Michigan State
- 41:47Speaker 1: just kind of didn't come out and really try to
- 41:50Speaker 1: play intense deep beense there. They kind of knew they
- 41:52Speaker 1: could just play at a faster temboe win that game whatever,
- 41:56Speaker 1: not play really crazy deepfense, And maybe they were looking
- 41:59Speaker 1: ahead to this one because you know, they're gonna have
- 42:01Speaker 1: their sight set on this game because Nebraska is still undefeated,
- 42:05Speaker 1: so that's what's gonna I think they're gonna be definitely
- 42:08Speaker 1: focused on this game here. And for Nebraska, as I've
- 42:11Speaker 1: been pointing out, Nebraska, they've faced a way weaker schedule. Man,
- 42:16Speaker 1: I mean, look at what they've done this year. I mean,
- 42:18Speaker 1: I'm just not impressed by this. They beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma
- 42:21Speaker 1: doesn't look very impressive right now. They beat New Mexico, fine,
- 42:25Speaker 1: but New Mexico's a Mountain West team, you know, I mean,
- 42:28Speaker 1: and they're not the best Mountain West team either, and
- 42:30Speaker 1: they don't really defend well. So whatever. New Mexico is
- 42:34Speaker 1: probably a top one hundred team. But that's not very impressive.
- 42:38Speaker 1: So Nebraska beat those two teams, I believe. In Kansas City,
- 42:41Speaker 1: they beat Kansas State, who really doesn't look that good.
- 42:45Speaker 1: Kansas State's struggling against like mid major teams, like losing
- 42:48Speaker 1: to Bowling Green by double digits, and Nebraska only beat
- 42:52Speaker 1: that team by one. They barely got by Winthrop by seven.
- 42:57Speaker 1: They beat Creighton. Creighton looks a little bit down this though.
- 43:00Speaker 1: That is one of Nebraska's best wins. Yeah, they beat Wisconsin,
- 43:04Speaker 1: Wisconsin has I mean they Yeah, they annihilated Wisconsin. Wisconsin
- 43:09Speaker 1: is just really struggling right now. It's just it's possible
- 43:11Speaker 1: that Wisconsin is just not that good. I mean, I
- 43:13Speaker 1: don't know. They don't look very good. And then, yes,
- 43:16Speaker 1: Nebraska had that one legitimate win where I know I
- 43:19Speaker 1: gave out Illinois to play on that one. Illinois is
- 43:22Speaker 1: a double digit favorite. In that game, Nebraska pulled off
- 43:25Speaker 1: the upset. But I'm not gonna say that you should
- 43:28Speaker 1: move your power ratings around by like ten points or
- 43:31Speaker 1: something just because Nebraska pulls up one huge upset like that,
- 43:35Speaker 1: you know, and then since then they've had really easy
- 43:38Speaker 1: games against North Dakota and New Hampshire. New Hampshire is pitiful.
- 43:43Speaker 1: Now they're coming up of that and they have to
- 43:44Speaker 1: step back up in class to face in Michigan State again.
- 43:47Speaker 1: I don't like it. Michigan State clearly has faced the
- 43:51Speaker 1: way way more difficult schedule. Ken Bam definitely reflects that,
- 43:54Speaker 1: with Michigan State having the fifty third strongest schedule, guess
- 43:58Speaker 1: Michigan State is the better team, although of course the
- 44:01Speaker 1: line is also still telling you that because Nebraska is
- 44:04Speaker 1: not getting the full home court. But I think this
- 44:07Speaker 1: line should be about one to be honest on Nebraska
- 44:10Speaker 1: is only seven ranking spots higher, I know, but Michigan
- 44:13Speaker 1: State again significantly better defense and only nine ranking spots
- 44:17Speaker 1: lower in the offensive efficiency numbers for kem Bum. Defensively,
- 44:22Speaker 1: they're sixth in the country versus Nebraska twenty eighth. Weird.
- 44:27Speaker 1: The Nebraska is better defensively than offensively as well, though,
- 44:31Speaker 1: and they play faster or they're kind of a mid
- 44:33Speaker 1: tempo team, but Michigan State probably gonna ugly this thing up,
- 44:36Speaker 1: slow it down. Ken Bum does have Nebraska high in
- 44:39Speaker 1: the Luck Index at sixty six, so he is telling
- 44:42Speaker 1: you they've overperformed. So that's a team that you might
- 44:45Speaker 1: want to be looking to fade for that reason as well.
- 44:47Speaker 1: And they only the two hundred and sixth strongest strength
- 44:50Speaker 1: of schedule according to kem Bum, whereas Michigan States is
- 44:53Speaker 1: fifty third. So, like I said, Michigan State has faced
- 44:56Speaker 1: way more difficult schedule so far. I don't trust the
- 44:59Speaker 1: break ask them. I don't think they're as good as
- 45:01Speaker 1: they look right now. They're facing a pretty elite Michigan
- 45:05Speaker 1: State team here. We're gonna go within Michigan State. That's
- 45:09Speaker 1: gonna be the play. That's my only play of the day.
- 45:12Speaker 1: Michigan State plus the points. All right, nets, Geer, I
- 45:19Speaker 1: think he probably has to get like the when they
- 45:23Speaker 1: like the stuff they print out before the nets, like
- 45:26Speaker 1: well the nets we need to like make the playoffs
- 45:28Speaker 1: or something, because he might get the stuff that says like,
- 45:30Speaker 1: you know, nets champions before they actually don't win the championship,
- 45:35Speaker 1: the stuff that gets shipped to like Africa, you know
- 45:38Speaker 1: what I mean. We do not have Bojangles up here. No,
- 45:43Speaker 1: that's that's a chicken joint, right, I've tried to be
- 45:47Speaker 1: on top of all the fast food stuff and no,
- 45:50Speaker 1: in the Northeast we have We're not a fried chicken
- 45:54Speaker 1: area in the Northeast. Let's just say that we have
- 45:57Speaker 1: we have all the typical We have the biggest chains basically.
- 46:00Speaker 1: We have obviously we have chick Well, Chick fil A
- 46:03Speaker 1: didn't even come up here until probably about a couple
- 46:05Speaker 1: of decades ago. So we have Chick fil A. We
- 46:08Speaker 1: have Popeyes, which Popeyes hasn't been up here that long either.
- 46:12Speaker 1: KFC obviously has been up here for my entire life,
- 46:16Speaker 1: no surprise there. And we do have Raising Canes, which
- 46:20Speaker 1: is the best out of those chains that we have
- 46:22Speaker 1: up here. So yeah, Fading Cincinnati football. I agree Cincinnati
- 46:32Speaker 1: is gonna lose that game, but I don't. I just
- 46:34Speaker 1: don't know about that line. Yeah, there's no Bojangles up
- 46:38Speaker 1: in the Northeast. I don't thing under you you keep
- 46:43Speaker 1: playing unders man, I mean, I just I just don't know. Yes,
- 46:50Speaker 1: get getting an authentic Italian We call them subs up here,
- 46:53Speaker 1: ry am sor Oh, yes, we have Dave's Hot Chicken.
- 46:56Speaker 1: That's true. Wait, Kyle, you're in New England with me? What? Yes,
- 47:00Speaker 1: Dave's Hot Chicken. I was surprised when I first tried them.
- 47:03Speaker 1: I'm like, this is actually good, like way better than
- 47:06Speaker 1: I thought it would be for a huge fast food chain.
- 47:11Speaker 1: And you know, it's not like legit Nashville Hot Chicken,
- 47:15Speaker 1: but it's it's not that far off, and it is
- 47:18Speaker 1: actually hot, like if you get some of the hottest.
- 47:20Speaker 1: I've tried the hottest, like the one that you have
- 47:22Speaker 1: to sign a waiver for the Reaper, which is the
- 47:25Speaker 1: step up from like the Extra Hot or whatever. I
- 47:28Speaker 1: was in some pain when I had the Reaper, so
- 47:31Speaker 1: and the Extra Hot is definitely legit as well. So
- 47:34Speaker 1: I usually just go with hot when I get Dave's
- 47:37Speaker 1: Hot Chicken, just because I want to actually enjoy it,
- 47:40Speaker 1: you know, while still getting smacked in the face with heat.
- 47:43Speaker 1: So yeah, we have a sods. Yeah, of course no.
- 47:48Speaker 1: But we have a lot of halal food up here though,
- 47:50Speaker 1: and I do like that, Like the Halal guys actually
- 47:53Speaker 1: really really good stuff, even though it basically just kind
- 47:57Speaker 1: of comes down to it being chicken rice, but it's
- 47:59Speaker 1: good Nashville hot chicken. Hell yeah, with the mashed potatoes.
- 48:05Speaker 1: I like to get it with like I get it
- 48:07Speaker 1: the standard way basically with the white bread, the fries
- 48:10Speaker 1: and like coalslaw I think, and pickles. I guess. I
- 48:13Speaker 1: think it's pretty much the standard way. But I'm kind
- 48:16Speaker 1: of like, what are you supposed to do with the
- 48:17Speaker 1: white bread? Like I guess you put the chicken on
- 48:20Speaker 1: the white bread. You can get it at Dave's that
- 48:22Speaker 1: way too, But usually I get the sliders at Dave's
- 48:25Speaker 1: just because I'm like whatever, Like, if I get the
- 48:27Speaker 1: white bread, I'm just gonna put the chicken on the
- 48:29Speaker 1: white bread and kind of make it into a sandwich anyway.
- 48:32Speaker 1: So I don't know, Yeah, I just get the sliders
- 48:36Speaker 1: at Dave's. Usually, Tyson and Pins. You guys are all
- 48:42Speaker 1: in New England, all right, Hell yeah, Panther's ed tar Heels, yes, right, yeah,
- 48:50Speaker 1: Javy or Asade on the Cubs, he's not very good.
- 48:54Speaker 1: They serve it with collared greens. All right? All right?
- 48:58Speaker 1: What else did I want to talk about here before?
- 49:00Speaker 1: Where I get out of this college basketball mode? Here?
- 49:04Speaker 1: We got Loyal and Marrymount and Washington State out in
- 49:06Speaker 1: the West Coast Conference. Here, Loyal and Marrymount is coming
- 49:09Speaker 1: off of beating off somehow. I'm still pissed about that.
- 49:13Speaker 1: Pacific should have covered there. I thought it was a
- 49:15Speaker 1: sandwich spot that Loyal and Marrymunt was in, which would
- 49:18Speaker 1: tell me they should show up for this game against
- 49:20Speaker 1: Washington State. Washington State is just not really that good
- 49:25Speaker 1: anymore though, like since they've kind of had to go
- 49:28Speaker 1: down into this conference. Washington State is off a fairly
- 49:30Speaker 1: ugly loss to Seattle though, although Seattle's pretty good right
- 49:35Speaker 1: now and Seattle was the favorite and that one, I mean,
- 49:40Speaker 1: I don't know. Somebody tells me to lean towards Washington
- 49:42Speaker 1: State here, and there's a reason why they're favored, even
- 49:44Speaker 1: though there's six and nine and Loyal in Marymount's ten
- 49:47Speaker 1: and five. Like what public veteran is going to see
- 49:49Speaker 1: this and want to lay points with a six and
- 49:52Speaker 1: nine team against a ten and five team, right, So
- 49:55Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are basically telling you something. When you see
- 49:58Speaker 1: a team that is that much worse of a wreck
- 50:00Speaker 1: in their favored that is definitely something you got to
- 50:02Speaker 1: take notice of. So I think it's probably Washington stayed
- 50:05Speaker 1: or pass in that game, other of from one and
- 50:07Speaker 1: a half to two. It is a low total one
- 50:10Speaker 1: hundred and forty two and a half. You're only asking
- 50:11Speaker 1: him to win by a bucket basically, so the total
- 50:14Speaker 1: shouldn't really come into play. Hopefully, seventy five percent of
- 50:17Speaker 1: tickets eighty four percent of the cash on Washington State
- 50:20Speaker 1: in that one. Portland actually no, San Diego and Sar Francisco.
- 50:25Speaker 1: Is kind of interesting too because San Diego they just
- 50:28Speaker 1: came to within six points of Gonzaga. So I was
- 50:32Speaker 1: thinking about this and I'm like, well, I kind of
- 50:33Speaker 1: want to fade San Diego off of that. But then
- 50:36Speaker 1: I looked at the box score and Gonzaga was way
- 50:39Speaker 1: ahead in that game, and I think Gonzaga just like
- 50:41Speaker 1: pretty much left the building, like I don't even know
- 50:43Speaker 1: if they were still on the court, and San Diego
- 50:45Speaker 1: scored like probably ten unanswered points to finish the game
- 50:49Speaker 1: when the game was already over, So it wasn't as
- 50:52Speaker 1: close as it looked. It was still a big game
- 50:54Speaker 1: for San Diego though. Now they got to go up
- 50:57Speaker 1: to San Francisco. But the other is they're not going
- 51:00Speaker 1: to overlook San Francisco. I mean, San Francisco has been
- 51:03Speaker 1: one of the better teams in the conference. So it's
- 51:04Speaker 1: a question of is San Diego going to be out
- 51:07Speaker 1: of gas from that game against Gonzaga. Maybe for San Francisco,
- 51:12Speaker 1: they just did have a fairly ugly loss at Oregon State.
- 51:15Speaker 1: I don't even know which of those teams was favored.
- 51:17Speaker 1: Oregon State might have been a small favorite in that one,
- 51:19Speaker 1: even though they're down as a program right now. But
- 51:23Speaker 1: going to court Vallas and trying to beat that team
- 51:25Speaker 1: there is not really an easy thing to do. So
- 51:30Speaker 1: you could have argue San Francisco is off of kind
- 51:32Speaker 1: of a difficult game as well. But I think if
- 51:34Speaker 1: I was gonna play this game, I would have to
- 51:35Speaker 1: lay the points just because I think San Diego just
- 51:38Speaker 1: might be gassed after that game against Gonzaga and they're
- 51:41Speaker 1: really just not that good. San Francisco is definitely the
- 51:45Speaker 1: better team. San Francisco is down for twelve and a
- 51:47Speaker 1: half to ten and a half, but they have ninety
- 51:49Speaker 1: four percent of the cash right now, fifty percent of
- 51:52Speaker 1: the tickets, so the tickets are evenly split fifty to fifty.
- 51:56Speaker 1: I should say, then we do a Portland at Saint Mayor.
- 52:00Speaker 1: I almost said Mount Saint Mary's. No, Saint Mary's Portland.
- 52:04Speaker 1: They are coming off a game where they did actually
- 52:07Speaker 1: play really close against Santa Clara at home. Portland almost
- 52:11Speaker 1: was able to upset Santa Clara. They lost by seven.
- 52:15Speaker 1: That was a huge game for them, though. Now they
- 52:17Speaker 1: have to go out on the road to face Saint Mary's. Now,
- 52:20Speaker 1: I know they're gonna try to get up for a
- 52:21Speaker 1: game against Saint Mary's, but it's I think it's just
- 52:23Speaker 1: gonna be tough for them to have effort like that.
- 52:26Speaker 1: That another game in a row like that. Now for
- 52:29Speaker 1: Saint Mary's, they're coming up an easy blowout. Whenever Pepperdine,
- 52:33Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna be looking ahead to
- 52:35Speaker 1: Seattle or not, because Seattle has been playing well, so
- 52:38Speaker 1: I mean, maybe a little bit of a worry. I
- 52:40Speaker 1: mean My bigger concern though, is that I just don't
- 52:42Speaker 1: like laying huge points with Saint Mary's because they play
- 52:45Speaker 1: so slow. It's just getting into kind of dangerous territory.
- 52:48Speaker 1: They're down from twenty two to twenty one and a half.
- 52:50Speaker 1: I mean, I will do it in certain spots, but
- 52:53Speaker 1: the totals one hundred and forty seven and a half.
- 52:55Speaker 1: We know again, Saint Mary's they play really really slow
- 53:00Speaker 1: half court basketball whatever, So I worry about it a
- 53:04Speaker 1: little bit. If you forced me, I probably would lay
- 53:07Speaker 1: it still with Saint Mary's, but I don't love it.
- 53:10Speaker 1: And then we do have Notre Dame in California. We
- 53:13Speaker 1: have an ACC game, The Late Night Degenerate Special is
- 53:16Speaker 1: an ACC game with Notre Dame. Just like Louisville, Notre
- 53:20Speaker 1: Dame is having to play their second game in a
- 53:22Speaker 1: row out there, and they're coming off that hideous win
- 53:26Speaker 1: against Stanford forty seven to forty. So maybe the public
- 53:30Speaker 1: still doesn't want anything to do with Notre Dame here.
- 53:32Speaker 1: I don't know. They do have to play Clemson when
- 53:34Speaker 1: they come back home, though, after they get a break
- 53:38Speaker 1: for cal Cal's coming off that blowout loss to Louisville.
- 53:41Speaker 1: Now my problem with that is that Cal hadn't lost
- 53:43Speaker 1: in a long time. Cal's only lost prior to that
- 53:46Speaker 1: was on the road at Kansas State. And I know
- 53:48Speaker 1: Cal's not really that good. I think they're better than
- 53:52Speaker 1: Stanford though, but Cal, they just have not faced a
- 53:54Speaker 1: difficult schedule, and I worry that that loss. I talk
- 53:58Speaker 1: about that when you lose along wind streaks will be
- 54:00Speaker 1: hung over into the next game. And Cal does have
- 54:03Speaker 1: Virginia next, which is maybe something they're gonna be looking
- 54:07Speaker 1: ahead to it. So I do worry about the spot
- 54:09Speaker 1: that Cal is in here. Cal has gone up from
- 54:13Speaker 1: a two and a half pway favorite to a five
- 54:14Speaker 1: point favorite, though eighty two percent of the tickets ninety
- 54:18Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash excusing on Cal, so the
- 54:21Speaker 1: money seems to have come in on Cal. It is
- 54:24Speaker 1: a low total. I mean, Notre Dame is getting into
- 54:26Speaker 1: these ugly games. One hundred and thirty eight. This game
- 54:31Speaker 1: is hard for me to figure out. Man, the money
- 54:33Speaker 1: is saying Cal. I kind of disagree with it, especially
- 54:37Speaker 1: in a game of the low total. I might be
- 54:40Speaker 1: looking to take the points. I mean, CAL losing that
- 54:43Speaker 1: long win streak in the fact that they have Virginia next,
- 54:46Speaker 1: Notre Dame coming off an ugly win, and when teams
- 54:50Speaker 1: win ugly, sometimes you do want to look to play
- 54:52Speaker 1: on that team in the next game, because they'll be
- 54:54Speaker 1: a little bit undervalued, like tea professional, I mean, excuse you,
- 54:57Speaker 1: a public Betters just don't like playing on t that
- 55:00Speaker 1: look ugly, even if they win. So yeah, I mean
- 55:04Speaker 1: Notre Dame plus the points probably would be my lean
- 55:06Speaker 1: in that game. But I don't have a good opinion
- 55:08Speaker 1: on that. All right, let's go to NHL after I
- 55:12Speaker 1: go do my daily clearing of the sign and says,
- 55:15Speaker 1: hang on, I'm gonna be right back, Garrett. Chicken biscuit.
- 55:18Speaker 1: Where'd you get that from? You're you're in the South,
- 55:21Speaker 1: so you get like really good chicken biscuits up here.
- 55:24Speaker 1: For me, it would have to be like Chick fil
- 55:26Speaker 1: A or something. Although this is actually not that bad,
- 55:28Speaker 1: but hang on, all right, I can't tell you how
- 57:02Speaker 1: much I hate the winter Man. All right. Bo Jangles,
- 57:06Speaker 1: Yeah that is uh alright, yeah, bo Jangles. I don't
- 57:13Speaker 1: even know if I've ever had them. I've had churches.
- 57:18Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm just not in the South that much.
- 57:22Speaker 1: All right, we have NHL here. We got four games.
- 57:27Speaker 1: Not a huge slate here. I don't love it, but
- 57:29Speaker 1: of course the Winter Classic is the game that's gonna
- 57:32Speaker 1: get the attention today. I would do a Vegas at
- 57:35Speaker 1: Saint Louis here. I think Jeffrey said he likes the
- 57:38Speaker 1: under in this game, although I think you said Saint
- 57:41Speaker 1: Louis was playing somebody else. I don't know Vegas. I
- 57:45Speaker 1: would worry about any sort of under in a Vegas game.
- 57:48Speaker 1: By the way, their goaltending has been a massive, massive issue.
- 57:52Speaker 1: After Heart like looked pretty good when they brought him in,
- 57:55Speaker 1: He's been awful recently and they actually had to pull
- 57:58Speaker 1: him from the game I think against Minnesota and they
- 58:00Speaker 1: put Schmidt in, and then Schmidt was good to finish
- 58:03Speaker 1: that game, and he was awful in the game the
- 58:06Speaker 1: other day against Nashville. So Vegas has some major goaltending
- 58:10Speaker 1: issues right now. Vegas is starting a road trip, though,
- 58:13Speaker 1: and they're coming off another ugly loss. So after really
- 58:17Speaker 1: that home stand it is a positive spot for Vegas.
- 58:21Speaker 1: They should be focused more on defense, and though again
- 58:23Speaker 1: I'm definitely concerned about their goaltending and Saint Louis, I mean,
- 58:28Speaker 1: their goaltending is always a concern too. There's no way
- 58:30Speaker 1: that I would playing under in this game. Saint Louis
- 58:33Speaker 1: coming off getting wrecked by Colorado six to one. They
- 58:38Speaker 1: should be in a bounce back mode as well. That
- 58:40Speaker 1: was a single game road trip, so they are coming
- 58:42Speaker 1: back home from that. They're not gonna overlook Vegas though,
- 58:45Speaker 1: So I mean it's a game where both teams should
- 58:48Speaker 1: be in focus spots here. So I think I probably
- 58:50Speaker 1: would lean to Vegas because they're the better team. You
- 58:53Speaker 1: might even be getting a little bit of a cheap
- 58:55Speaker 1: price on Vegas, believe it or not, because they just
- 58:58Speaker 1: they haven't looked good recently, but they still are the
- 59:00Speaker 1: better team. Throughout minus one fifty minus one fifty two,
- 59:04Speaker 1: ninety one percent tickets, ninety eight percent of the cash
- 59:07Speaker 1: on them. This total is I mean, it is low
- 59:11Speaker 1: five and a half. Usually a five and a half
- 59:13Speaker 1: in hockey. Usually I would actually say the under makes
- 59:16Speaker 1: more sense than that one, but I would not want
- 59:18Speaker 1: to do it in this game. Ninety five percent of tickets,
- 59:20Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on the over. It
- 59:25Speaker 1: looks like the number is creeping up. By the way,
- 59:27Speaker 1: there's some more juice on that over. It's actually really
- 59:29Speaker 1: the number is really closer to six at this point.
- 59:32Speaker 1: So doing that information what you want to, But I
- 59:36Speaker 1: really hate that game from a handicap but capping perspective.
- 59:41Speaker 1: That's why I'm sniffling all the time. I'm doing cocaine.
- 59:43Speaker 1: Like the sniffling accountant in Seinfeld. If you guys have
- 59:48Speaker 1: ever seen that one that he keeps sniffing, sniffing, sniffling.
- 59:51Speaker 1: They think he's on cocaine the whole time, and it
- 59:54Speaker 1: turns out that it's like an allergic reaction to us,
- 59:56Speaker 1: to Cramer's sweater or something like that. I'm trying to
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: remember exactly what it is. Yeah, Usually it's my hands
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: that get chapped, so I have like cream that I've
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: been using. My hands look better now, like you probably
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: saw them, like a couple of weeks ago. They're horrible.
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: They'll look all right right now, all right? The Winter
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: Classic at eight pm. It gets an isolated time spot.
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: It's on TNT True TV. It's the only actually nationally
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: televised hockey game today. It is the Rangers in Florida,
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: and for the first time ever, it's gonna be an
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: outdoor hockey game, an outdoor NHL game in a warm
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: weather climb that. I don't know how they're doing it.
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: Don't ask me, because, like I said, the Winter Classic,
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: it's always outdoors, but it's usually in the afternoon, and
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: it's usually like in you know, like I said, Boston,
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: New York. Like I think it's been at Feenway Park before,
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: it's been at Yankee Stadium before, it's been at Wrigley Field.
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure in Chicago this is gonna be I'm
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: pretty sure this is being played the Marlins Baseball Stadium.
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: It's in Miami, so it's like a semi home game
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: for Florida basically. I mean, it's just it's a ridiculous concept. Man.
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: I just don't know what else to say about this.
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: I don't know how it's gonna go over. It's gonna
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: be like seventy degrees outside there. Maybe the part of
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: the reason why they're playing it at night is probably
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: because it'll be a little bit cooler at night, but
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: it's still probably gonna be like sixties at night in Miami.
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: So I don't know. I don't know how they're keeping
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: the ice frozen. You're gonna year to period, it's gonna
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: turn into bathwater man swish splash. They're all gonna be
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: digging a bath man. I don't know how this game
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: is gonna go over. It might be interesting to watch.
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: I don't know what the uniforms are gonna look like
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: for this one. Usually the teams have some cool uniforms.
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: Rangers are technically on the road in this one, so yeah,
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: I know we've talked about how they're a good road team.
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: They're coming up an ugly loss to Washington. This will
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: be the last game of their road trip if you
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: want to consider to be part of the road trip,
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: which I think you should, because they aren't on the
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: road here still, so they're finishing the road trip that
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: they started back on the twenty seventh. They've lost every
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: game on the road trip, and coming off of six
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: to three loss, even though I know it was to
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: a pretty good Washington team, they should be in bounced
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: back mode here. You got to think they should be
- 1:02:17Speaker 1: focused here. It's just stuck and should be back in
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: net here for them. But I don't think Florida's gonna
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: overlook this game either, man, because this is a big
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: deal I think for them, Like they get to host
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: the Winter Classic. It's kind of a historical event the
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: first time it gets hosted again in a warm weather climate,
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: like I think the Rangers have probably hosted one of
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: these things before, so I think the game might mean
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: more to Florida. Florida's coming up a little bit of
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: a tougher loss on Tuesday to Montreal, but they're staying
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: at home in Florida, and yes, they do have Colorado next,
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: but they're not going to overlook the Winter Classic. I
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: would not imagine, so, I Hm, it's a tough call, man,
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: it really is a tough call. I think the spot
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: it does set up better for the Rangers generally coming
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: off that ugly loss. The money is saying Rangers Florida
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: down for minus minus one forty two, fifty four percent
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: of the tickets on Florida, fifty percent of the cash
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: on the Rangers money. Is someone indicating on the Rangers here.
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: I mean, I have very very light agreement with the Rangers,
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: but I don't love it by any means. I could
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: definitely see arguments for both sides in that game. So yeah,
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: it's it's definitely a pass the Rickshaw episode. They have
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: a lot of episodes they wouldn't be able to do today.
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: They had an episode that wasn't even allowed. And back then,
- 1:03:42Speaker 1: one of the Seinfeld episodes didn't get aired in the
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: final season, the Puerto Rican Day Parade episode, which you
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: can go find it. I mean, it is out there,
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: but it didn't get aired. I don't think it was.
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: I don't know, two race sisters. I have no idea,
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: Like I've watched the episode and it's not even offensive.
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: It's not the funniest episode. Maybe the most offensive thing
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: about it is that it's just not that funny. So
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: I don't know it was. It was actually the last
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: episode before I believe they had like a couple of
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: clip shows and then they did the finale, so it
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: was actually the last, like real episode, which kind of sucks.
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: People talk about how bad that last season was, and
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: it's not like the finale is bad, but and the
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: Puerto Rican Day Parade is, you know, I mean, it
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: has its it has its moments, it has its thing
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: because it got canceled, so there is that about it,
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: so you know, you gotta kind of respect it for that.
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: But the rest of the episodes that season were pretty hilarious.
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: Wait is it a roof stadium in Miami? I don't
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: even know Miami Marlin Stadium. I don't even know if
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: it's roofed or not. That's pretty stupid, though, dude. I'm
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: sick of everything moving towards roofed environments, you know. I'm
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: sick of it. Like you're gonna get roofs stadiums in
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: the NFL in Kansas City, Denver, Chicago. It's like, stop
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: this shit, man. It's just such pussification of everything. It's crazy.
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: I hate it. I absolutely hate it. All right, we
- 1:05:15Speaker 1: have Seattle and Vancouver here. We're seeing a lot of
- 1:05:18Speaker 1: movement on this line indicating on the Seattle side here.
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: Seattle just beating Nashville yesterday. So we're on a back
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: to back and traveling to Vancouver. Now they are starting
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: a road trip with momentum technically, but they're playing a
- 1:05:37Speaker 1: third game in forty they're actually playing oh no, wait,
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: it's a They had two days off prior to that,
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: my mistake, so they very weird though. They're playing a
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: fourth game in six days still though, because they've played
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: two games, had two days off, and now another back
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: to back, So two back to backs and then two
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: days off in between the two. Weird scheduling here with travel,
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: I mean, it's a little bit of a weird travel spot,
- 1:05:59Speaker 1: but I believe Decord will be back in net for them.
- 1:06:02Speaker 1: My guy, I think he's from Boston, from Massachusetts, I believe,
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens with that. Vancouver does have
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: more rest here and they're staying at home, and they
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: lost ugly to Philadelphia in the last game, so to me,
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: I think the setup is actually better for Vancouver here,
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: although they did just win at Seattle on Monday the
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: twenty ninth, so it is one of those kind of
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: quick road revenge angles, like zigzag spot, whatever you want
- 1:06:29Speaker 1: to call it. Maybe an adjustment for Seattle. Maybe that's
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: why the money is pretty heavily indicating on Seattle here.
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: But I worry about it because I think Vancouver is
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: kind of in the better bounce back spot and they're
- 1:06:40Speaker 1: more rested, so I don't think I really want Seattle here.
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: Vancouver opened a pretty heavy favorite minus won seventy five.
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: They're down to minus one forty nine fifty seven percent
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: of ticket, seventy percent of the cash on Seattle, so
- 1:06:54Speaker 1: the money is indicating on Seattle. But you know, I
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: my feeling is slow lightly the other way in that
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: one I slightly lean opposite that to Vancouver, but I
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: don't love it at all. Mister Pinsey, what's up man?
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. You're betting your wife and kids.
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: Maybe bet your wife, but not your kids. Let's be
- 1:07:15Speaker 1: let's be reasonable here on Michigan State. Dude, I don't
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: know how strong I feel about that play man. It's
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: it's my strongest of the day, but it's uh, we
- 1:07:26Speaker 1: have a very, very weak board. Today. Minnesota is playing Anaheim.
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: Minnesota is coming off of a shootout loss to San Jose.
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: They have a day off after that, so they could
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: be in a bit of a bounce back mode here.
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: They're not gonna overlook Anaheim. Anaheim's been having a decent season.
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: Anaheim's also gonna show up. I mean, Anaheim's lost four
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: games in a row, but they are coming of a
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: pretty tough loss, an overtime loss, excuse me, to Tampa
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: Bay staying at home here now, They're not gonna overlook Minnesota.
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: It's just maybe that Tampa game will tire Anaheim a
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: little bit, so I think Minnesota. The spot does set
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: up better for Minnesota in this game. To me, I
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: know it does. Mean you're gonna have to lay a
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: favorite price on the road against an Anaheim team. It's
- 1:08:13Speaker 1: pretty decent at home, although recently that hasn't been the case.
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: on Minnesota, they're up for minus one fifteen to minus
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: one twenty six. Here, I don't disagree with it. I
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: do actually agree with Minnesota in that one, but again
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: it's a very weak opinion for me. I just don't
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: see spots that I really like here, man. And then
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: we got the NBA. We have several NBA games today,
- 1:08:38Speaker 1: I think about eight of them. We do have the
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: Spurs at Indiana, and when I first look at this,
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: I'm like, well, this has got to be kind of
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: a letdown spot because the Spurs just got their NBA
- 1:08:49Speaker 1: Cup Final revenge. They had a huge comeback against the Knicks,
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: and if you didn't see that game, it was brutal
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: that the Spurs didn't cover. Although you could argue the
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: Spurs shouldn't even been in the game because they were
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: losing by nineteen late in the game, but when Benyama
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: got hurt in the game, so that kind of threw
- 1:09:07Speaker 1: the game off as well. So that's something I'm gonna
- 1:09:09Speaker 1: talk about in this handicap as well. There's a lot
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: going on here. The Spurs made a huge comeback to
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: win that game, so they could be a bit tired.
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: But if you saw what happened in the end of
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: that game, Spurs are up five with almost no time
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: left in the game. I talked about this on Loser
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: cast last night too. The Knicks threw up like a
- 1:09:28Speaker 1: bad three because they weren't gonna win the game, or
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: a bad shot, whatever it was. They missed the shot,
- 1:09:33Speaker 1: and then the ball was headed towards like the top
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: left hand corner, like if you're watching it on TV,
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: you know what I mean, the corner of the court,
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: and the Spurs player who was there just kind of
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: went like this, just like let the ball go out
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: of bounds, and it didn't go out of bounds, and
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: Brunson snuck in around him, grabbed the ball and just
- 1:09:53Speaker 1: kind of flung it up from the corner and it
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: went in before the buzzer for three. So that's why
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: the Spurs didn't cover the minus two and a half
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: or the minus three and a half. Unbelievable, dude, Although
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: again you could argue, well, I mean there are a
- 1:10:09Speaker 1: lot of arguments you can make about that game. I
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: already made them all, but it was just ridiculous that
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: the game ended like that and then Brunts. It was
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: just kind of like, I don't know, like shrugging him,
- 1:10:19Speaker 1: like dude, this stuff just it really does kind of
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: seem like it's rigged in a way. But I don't know,
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: because you would think that the books wanted san Antonio
- 1:10:27Speaker 1: to cover that game though, because the public was on
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: the Knicks side. But I don't know. Now, san Antonio
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: is coming off that huge game. They're going on the
- 1:10:34Speaker 1: road to face Indiana. So normally I would say this
- 1:10:37Speaker 1: is a letdown spot because they just beat the Knicks.
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: It was a huge win, huge comeback. Problem is when
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: Benyama's out, and you know what, I always talk about
- 1:10:45Speaker 1: the injured player spot. When your star player is down,
- 1:10:48Speaker 1: he's not playing in this game. The team usually steps
- 1:10:51Speaker 1: up their level play that first game without him, So
- 1:10:54Speaker 1: that kind of counters that and it just makes me
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: have to pretty much ignore the game. For Indiana. They
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: just played a pretty close game against Orlando, pretty close
- 1:11:05Speaker 1: before that at Houston as well, so they're coming off
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: a couple of pretty big performances, They're not going to
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: overlook San Antonio. But without Wemba Wemby, maybe Indiana has
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: a little bit more of a tendency to overlook them here.
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: But overall, I guess I still have to lean to
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: the Pacers. I think the letdown spot still is just
- 1:11:22Speaker 1: kind of more of the deciding factor here. That and
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: if you look at the market, the Spurs are still
- 1:11:28Speaker 1: a six point favorite, seventy seven percent of tickets on them,
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: only seventy percent of the cash, So the market is
- 1:11:34Speaker 1: indicating still on taking the points of the Pacers. I
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: guess I'll still agree with that. But I don't have
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: a great opinion on that one. He shot it just
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: to save the ball from Yeah, he saved it from
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: going out and it went in. I don't I don't
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: know what to say about that. The Brooklyn Nets are
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: at Washington this game. I mean, oh, I thought I
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: thought we're talking about the Bucks game. I like the
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: Bucks today, I don't know what we're talking about the
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: Nets game this game. I don't have an opinion on. Really,
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: Brooklyn's on a back to back, so I don't love that,
- 1:12:09Speaker 1: Although they got blown out last night by Houston, so
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: maybe they will be focused. Maybe it'll be good to
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: just get out of there. Because they did have multiple
- 1:12:16Speaker 1: days off prior to yesterday. They'd been off since Monday,
- 1:12:20Speaker 1: so that kind of mitigates the back to back a
- 1:12:22Speaker 1: little bit and the fact they got annihilated. Maybe they
- 1:12:25Speaker 1: will show up and be focused. They do have Denver next,
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: so though it's gonna be a jokicch list Denver, although
- 1:12:30Speaker 1: I think you still get up for Denver, but after
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: a blow out lost like that, I don't think you
- 1:12:35Speaker 1: really overlook anybody. I don't know. This was the game
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: where no the Bucks I think was the game I was.
- 1:12:41Speaker 1: I don't know. Let me look at the market. I
- 1:12:43Speaker 1: forget what I was thinking. Washington did pull off the
- 1:12:46Speaker 1: upset of Milwaukee on the road, so they could be
- 1:12:49Speaker 1: in a letdown spot here. You know, they got Minnesota next.
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: Maybe maybe that's a bigger game. I'm gonna I'm gonna agree.
- 1:13:01Speaker 1: I'm gonna slightly agree with the Nets in this one.
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: I was thinking about the Bucks game. My apologies I was.
- 1:13:07Speaker 1: I think I was thinking Bucks Hornets. I wasn't thinking
- 1:13:09Speaker 1: about this game. I think I agree with the Nets
- 1:13:11Speaker 1: in this game for what it's worth. But I don't
- 1:13:14Speaker 1: love it by any means. The Wizards are down from
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: one and a half to a pick them here eighty
- 1:13:19Speaker 1: three percent of tickets one hundred percent of the cash
- 1:13:21Speaker 1: on the nets, which I don't really buy that. But yeah,
- 1:13:26Speaker 1: I will agree with the nets, but I don't really
- 1:13:28Speaker 1: want to jump in on them in a back to back.
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: But you're right, SOB is correct. Washington's kind of in
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: a pretty ugly spot right there. Denver at Cleveland. Denver
- 1:13:37Speaker 1: is now facing their second game without Jokic, and I
- 1:13:40Speaker 1: talked about the injured player theory. Of course, again, they
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: were able to win the game first game without Jolkic.
- 1:13:45Speaker 1: They stepped up their play. They won the game against
- 1:13:48Speaker 1: Toronto with I believe former Toronto raptor balanced Junics is
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: on Denver here yonas balanced uns. I think it is
- 1:13:57Speaker 1: his name, however you pronounced his name. Denver got the win. Now,
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: normally I would say they're gonna be worse in the
- 1:14:03Speaker 1: next game, because second game without the injured player, after
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: you put up putting in that big effort the first time,
- 1:14:08Speaker 1: a lot of times you'll take a step back and
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: not be as good in the next game. But I
- 1:14:13Speaker 1: don't really know that Denver's gonna overlook Cleveland though, So
- 1:14:15Speaker 1: that's the thing. They're still gonna try to show up
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: for this game. Now, Cleveland, they're coming off a couple
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: of nice wins against San Antonio and then they came
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: back home and they still beat Phoenix in the return
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: home spot. They do have Detroit up next. Is it
- 1:14:28Speaker 1: possible they overlook Denver because Denver doesn't have Yokic in
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: the lineup. Yeah, that is definitely possible. There's a lot
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: going on here, man, and you're gonna be asking Cleveland
- 1:14:37Speaker 1: to lay a huge price. So this is the the
- 1:14:40Speaker 1: Jokic reaction here. I think this has to be an overreaction, though.
- 1:14:46Speaker 1: The Cavs are now a thirteen and a half point
- 1:14:48Speaker 1: favorite just because Jokic is out. Like, what was this
- 1:14:51Speaker 1: line gonna be if Jokic is gonna play. I think
- 1:14:54Speaker 1: we don't really know, but it probably would have been
- 1:14:56Speaker 1: like three. I mean, is you Jokic's really worth that amount?
- 1:15:01Speaker 1: I don't know, man, sixty nine percent of the tickets,
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the cash on the calves. Of course,
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: if it was the first game without Jokic, I'd be saying, yeah,
- 1:15:09Speaker 1: the Nuggets are the way to look here. Second game
- 1:15:13Speaker 1: without him, I'm just not so sure, man. But it's
- 1:15:15Speaker 1: not the greatest spot for the Calves. I could definitely
- 1:15:18Speaker 1: see the Calves overlooking the Nuggets here, But then the
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: public's gonna look at this and they're not gonna lay
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: thirteen and a half points with a nineteen and sixteen
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: team against a twenty three to ten team, right, They're
- 1:15:28Speaker 1: just not gonna do that, So I don't think so.
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: The line just looks crazy to see records that are
- 1:15:37Speaker 1: that descripting, but have the team with the lesser record
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: being that heavy a favorite. Just a lot of insane
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: stuff going on. When the line looks that suspicious, Usually
- 1:15:46Speaker 1: you want to be going with the suspicious line, know
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: what I mean, and agreeing with the odds makers. I
- 1:15:52Speaker 1: don't know about it in this case though, And the
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: Nuggets are still good on the road thirteen and five
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: on the road, although we'll see what happens without Yok.
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: But I'm not getting involved in this one obviously. Like
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: I said, the money is coming in on the Calves, though,
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: for what it's worth in laying that huge number, I
- 1:16:08Speaker 1: like the professional money seems like it's kind of on
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: that side. Zach, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out.
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: All right. We have Atlanta at the Knicks. Atlanta coming
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: in off a pretty big upset over Minnesota. That was
- 1:16:23Speaker 1: a nice win. They're not gonna overlook the Knicks, though,
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: so they're starting a road trip now. They do have
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: momentum because Atlanta had actually lost seven games in a row.
- 1:16:31Speaker 1: So I could see it going two ways, right, because
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: they beat Minnesota, that's a nice wins as an underdog here,
- 1:16:39Speaker 1: now they could be in a letdown spot. But I
- 1:16:41Speaker 1: think what's more likely is they're gonna show up here
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: because it's the Knicks. The Knicks just beating them at
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: home that got Saturday by three points. They're not gonna
- 1:16:49Speaker 1: overlook the Knicks here, so I think it's more likely
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: that that win ended, they're losing momentum and they're gonna
- 1:16:53Speaker 1: start this road trip with a little bit of confidence.
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: For the Knicks, I don't love that they're kind of
- 1:16:59Speaker 1: in the opposite situation where they've won three games in
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: a row and then they took a loss. Possibly that's
- 1:17:05Speaker 1: gonna hang them over here and they might overlook this
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: Atlanta team that's just been struggling. I think I don't
- 1:17:10Speaker 1: know if Trey Young is out in the lineup again.
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with Atlanta, but the
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: Knicks two have Philadelphia and Detroit in their next two games,
- 1:17:17Speaker 1: and I think those are bigger games. Philadelphia tomorrow. Philadelphia
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: is still a team of the winning record, So this game,
- 1:17:24Speaker 1: for me, it would be Hawks or Past the game.
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: In this one, the Knicks are seven and a half
- 1:17:29Speaker 1: point favorite, sixty seven percent of tickets on the Knicks,
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: fifty two of the cash on the Hawks. I agree
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: with the market on that one. I lean to the
- 1:17:36Speaker 1: Hawks in that game. Orlando, Orlando Orlanta. It's in Orlando
- 1:17:45Speaker 1: and Atlanta super team, No Orlando, is that Chicago. Orlando's
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: coming up that close call against Indiana they barely got
- 1:17:53Speaker 1: the win, probably means they should be kind of refocused
- 1:17:58Speaker 1: after that because that was kind of an ugly effort
- 1:18:00Speaker 1: against Indiana. Probably they show up for this game against Chicago.
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: Chicago they just won for us the other day they
- 1:18:07Speaker 1: beat New Orleans. Nice momentum starting win though for Chicago,
- 1:18:11Speaker 1: so they probably will show up for this game against
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: Orlando as well. So to me, it looks like both
- 1:18:16Speaker 1: teams should show up for this. As far as the
- 1:18:19Speaker 1: market is concerned, it looks like it's kind of indicating
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: on the magic, although we don't really see any percentages yet.
- 1:18:24Speaker 1: They're up from four and a half to five and
- 1:18:26Speaker 1: a half. Does look I don't know, it looks a
- 1:18:29Speaker 1: little bit odd. I mean, it almost looks kind of
- 1:18:31Speaker 1: easy to look towards taking the points of the bulls
- 1:18:34Speaker 1: at home here. So I guess I'll slightly agree with
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: the market, you don't agree with the magic, but really
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: no opinion on this. I do not have a strong
- 1:18:42Speaker 1: opinion on this one at all. Seventy seven percent of
- 1:18:45Speaker 1: tickets and one hundred percent of the cash on the
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: magic in that game. Okay, we have Charlotte and Milwaukee,
- 1:18:54Speaker 1: do I don't know what I was thinking. I was
- 1:18:55Speaker 1: thinking Milwaukee was playing Brooklyn. My mind is just out
- 1:18:59Speaker 1: of it today, man, I don't don't know what I
- 1:19:00Speaker 1: was thinking. Charlotte is coming up a pretty tough game
- 1:19:04Speaker 1: against Golden State where they only lost by seven, pretty
- 1:19:08Speaker 1: big performance. Now they're going to Milwaukee. Starting a road
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: trip usually is a focused spot. Though usually you do
- 1:19:13Speaker 1: get focused, especially because they just lost to Milwaukee by
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: ten at home on Monday, so it could be kind
- 1:19:18Speaker 1: of a zigzag, kind of an adjustment spot as well.
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: From Milwaukee. They should be in a focused spot as well, though,
- 1:19:27Speaker 1: because they just lost to Washington, So I don't really
- 1:19:29Speaker 1: see them overlooking Charlotte here, especially because it's just a
- 1:19:32Speaker 1: two game homestand they're gonna want to get a win
- 1:19:35Speaker 1: and split the home stand before they go back out
- 1:19:37Speaker 1: on the road. So both teams are in focus spots here.
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: So the money is all coming in on the Hornets though,
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: But I'm just not so sure about that Bucks sixty
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: two percent tickets on them, eighty three percent of the
- 1:19:48Speaker 1: couch on the Hornets. I know the zigzags in play
- 1:19:51Speaker 1: here where the Hornets might adjust. The market is strongly
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: indicating on the Hornets bucks down from six and a
- 1:19:57Speaker 1: half to six. I have to stay away from it, though,
- 1:20:01Speaker 1: I mean, I don't really want to disagree with the
- 1:20:03Speaker 1: market signal that's that strong, at least it is to
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: start the day here. But yeah, I'm just gonna stay
- 1:20:10Speaker 1: away from that one complete. I mean, obviously completely. I'm
- 1:20:13Speaker 1: staying away from everything except Michigan State. So do with
- 1:20:17Speaker 1: that information what you want to, as I always say,
- 1:20:19Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't want anything to do with it
- 1:20:22Speaker 1: Portland at the New Orleans Pelicans. Portland just got blown
- 1:20:25Speaker 1: out at Oklahoma City, not totally surprising there. If they
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: do have San Antonio next, does that mean Portland will
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: look ahead because that's tomorrow. Maybe? So. I don't know, like,
- 1:20:37Speaker 1: will they bounce back from a blowout loss here or
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: will they still overlook New Orleans. I don't know. New
- 1:20:43Speaker 1: Orleans coming into this game on a bunch of losses. Again,
- 1:20:46Speaker 1: they're a streaky team, man, they won five in a row. Now,
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: they've lost five in a row, including that game that
- 1:20:51Speaker 1: we got right with Chicago. New Orleans should probably be
- 1:20:55Speaker 1: in a bounced back spot here, I would imagine. I
- 1:20:57Speaker 1: would imagine they should show up focus too. So to me,
- 1:21:01Speaker 1: it looks like the Pelicans are probably the more likely
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: team to actually show up with focus in this game.
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: The money is saying the Trailblazers here, but I kind
- 1:21:10Speaker 1: of disagree. Blazers down from one and a half to one.
- 1:21:12Speaker 1: They are the public side seventy five percent of tickets,
- 1:21:15Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash for now, but in
- 1:21:18Speaker 1: a case like that where that discrepancy is not as
- 1:21:20Speaker 1: big and it's all kind of on the public side.
- 1:21:22Speaker 1: You might see that flip around a little bit. Slight
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: opinion for me on the Pelicans, but I don't love
- 1:21:28Speaker 1: it at all. Sacramento at Phoenix. Sacramento, they just lost
- 1:21:36Speaker 1: to Boston yesterday. Yeah, sorry, Jeffrey. That one was I
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: was very hesitant about that one, and the market was
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: indicating on the Celtics. Celtics definitely not a bad team.
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: The Kings lost by fourteen. They're on a back to
- 1:21:50Speaker 1: back now and they're having a travel This is kind
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: of a weird spot where they're now playing three games
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: in four days, all in different cities. They're playing four
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: games in six days, with the first two of them
- 1:22:01Speaker 1: both being in La So a lot of weird kind
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: of travel here for Sacramento. And now they're going back
- 1:22:06Speaker 1: out on the road to face Phoenix on a back
- 1:22:08Speaker 1: to back, So you got to worry about the rest
- 1:22:10Speaker 1: for Sacramento, although they're not gonna overlook Phoenix, but you
- 1:22:14Speaker 1: gotta worry about the rest. Phoenix hasn't played since Wednesday,
- 1:22:18Speaker 1: but they are turning over from a road trip that
- 1:22:20Speaker 1: they've been on since Friday, December twenty six, so they're
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: returning home from a week long road trip. They did
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: well on the road trip, although they only beat New
- 1:22:28Speaker 1: Orleans in Washington, so even though they won three out
- 1:22:30Speaker 1: of four, those are not impressive wins. They lost to
- 1:22:33Speaker 1: Cleveland to finish the road trip, so they are turning
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: over from a road trip and up next they have
- 1:22:37Speaker 1: Oklahoma City and then Houston. So this is a bad
- 1:22:40Speaker 1: spot for Phoenix. Like normally, this is the spot where
- 1:22:44Speaker 1: I would look to fade them, because you get back
- 1:22:46Speaker 1: home a lot of times, you have stuff to do
- 1:22:49Speaker 1: at home, you can overlook your opponent, especially when you
- 1:22:51Speaker 1: have much bigger opponents on deck. So it's a terrible
- 1:22:54Speaker 1: spot for Phoenix, so I would probably fade them. I
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: would agree with taking the points of the Kings, but
- 1:23:00Speaker 1: with the King's awful rest scenario here, I can't get
- 1:23:03Speaker 1: there with this one. And the Suns they look like
- 1:23:07Speaker 1: they're taking some of the money. They're up from eleven
- 1:23:09Speaker 1: to twelve and a half, seventy four percent of tickets,
- 1:23:11Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on them, So I
- 1:23:14Speaker 1: worry about that one as well. Man, I gotta stay
- 1:23:17Speaker 1: off of it. Oklahoma City at Golden State. Let's see
- 1:23:23Speaker 1: Oklahoma City here. They just had that blow win over
- 1:23:27Speaker 1: Portland they're starting a road trip. They are starting the
- 1:23:29Speaker 1: road trip with momentum. I don't really see them overlooking
- 1:23:33Speaker 1: Golden State in a spot like this. Even though Golden
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: State's not as good right now, they're still cheam of
- 1:23:38Speaker 1: the winning record. There's still Golden State. Steph Curry I
- 1:23:41Speaker 1: think is gonna play, although he is on the injury
- 1:23:43Speaker 1: report right now, so you gotta look at the injury report.
- 1:23:45Speaker 1: It looks like Draymond Green is not gonna play in
- 1:23:48Speaker 1: this game because he's old and they're resting him. But
- 1:23:51Speaker 1: I think Curry will go if he can. He's a
- 1:23:53Speaker 1: game time decision. Golden State. They're returning over from a
- 1:23:57Speaker 1: road trip. They've been on since Sunday, so not a
- 1:23:59Speaker 1: long road trip return, and they're not gonna overlook Oklahoma City,
- 1:24:04Speaker 1: so I think that kind of negates the fact that
- 1:24:06Speaker 1: it's a road drip return and there might be distractions
- 1:24:08Speaker 1: at play. They'll show up for a game against Okay. See,
- 1:24:12Speaker 1: Golden State finished the road trip with a win over
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: Charlotte whatever, so hmm. I mean the line has moved
- 1:24:19Speaker 1: up from the thunder minus five and a half to
- 1:24:21Speaker 1: minus nine, although that might indicate that maybe that might
- 1:24:25Speaker 1: indicate that Curry might not be playing in this game.
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: If this line moved like this up to nine, I
- 1:24:31Speaker 1: don't know what spur this line moved. Noah Upon intended.
- 1:24:35Speaker 1: The Spur is not playing in this game. The Thunder
- 1:24:37Speaker 1: gonna be without Hartenstein. By the way, Hart and Steen,
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: He's not playing in this game, so something to keep
- 1:24:42Speaker 1: in mind. Thunder definitely have a deep roster though. Fifty
- 1:24:45Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets on the Thunder, fifty three
- 1:24:47Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming back in on the Warriors,
- 1:24:50Speaker 1: so the money is indicating on taking the points of
- 1:24:52Speaker 1: the Warriors. I don't really want to disagree, but man,
- 1:24:58Speaker 1: I don't I really don't want to fade the Thunder
- 1:25:00Speaker 1: just a dominant team, and I don't really want to
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: be jumping in in front of them when they're not
- 1:25:04Speaker 1: in a really bad spot or anything. So yeah, I
- 1:25:08Speaker 1: mean again, I'm just putting all the info out there. Yeah,
- 1:25:13Speaker 1: we can go on together with suspicious minds. Yeah whatever,
- 1:25:19Speaker 1: Elvis there, Jeffrey, see you, man, dude. I'm gonna talk
- 1:25:24Speaker 1: about football in a minute. Though. The bulls that are
- 1:25:28Speaker 1: on today, including one of the best bulls that's out there, man,
- 1:25:32Speaker 1: one of the ones with the most ridiculous ceremonies. Memphis
- 1:25:37Speaker 1: at LA here, Memphis at the Lakers. I should say now,
- 1:25:41Speaker 1: the Lakers, we know they're shorthanded right now as well.
- 1:25:43Speaker 1: They're still without Reeves. I don't know about Hachima, let
- 1:25:48Speaker 1: me see, Yeah, they're both still out, so Lakers. Basically,
- 1:25:55Speaker 1: it's just Luca trying to carry the team right now.
- 1:25:58Speaker 1: Hasn't been totally working out for the Lakes. Memphis, they're
- 1:26:03Speaker 1: off of a loss to Philadelphia in overtime and now
- 1:26:06Speaker 1: starting a road trip, and they've been off since Tuesday,
- 1:26:08Speaker 1: so they should be in a positive spot here, even
- 1:26:11Speaker 1: though they are having to play a late night game
- 1:26:13Speaker 1: on the Pacific Coast, and you know, I kind of
- 1:26:15Speaker 1: worry about that when a team that's from further east
- 1:26:18Speaker 1: has to go out there and play a late night game,
- 1:26:20Speaker 1: kind of messes with their biological clock. Orthough, they should
- 1:26:23Speaker 1: be focused to start a road trip, and they should
- 1:26:25Speaker 1: have a couple of days because they have a couple
- 1:26:29Speaker 1: of days off, they should be focused on this game
- 1:26:31Speaker 1: as well, like it should break. They're losing momentum, I
- 1:26:33Speaker 1: should say so. I don't think it's the worst spot
- 1:26:36Speaker 1: from Memphis here for the Lakers. They should be focused
- 1:26:40Speaker 1: as well. They just got embarrassed at home. They have
- 1:26:43Speaker 1: not been playing well. I think've lost three out of
- 1:26:45Speaker 1: their last four. It's again Luca trying to carry the team.
- 1:26:48Speaker 1: I mean, Lebron is still kind of doing his thing,
- 1:26:50Speaker 1: but he's old obviously. Probably they're both playing tonight with
- 1:26:54Speaker 1: a couple of days off here. They haven't played since Tuesday.
- 1:26:56Speaker 1: The Lakers, they've got blown out by Detroit on Lebron's birthday.
- 1:27:01Speaker 1: By the way, he's forty one. He's gonna have to
- 1:27:03Speaker 1: pack it in. I think Lakers they should be focused
- 1:27:07Speaker 1: in this game, I would imagine, though, So it's not
- 1:27:10Speaker 1: really a spot right necessarily want to fade the Lakers.
- 1:27:13Speaker 1: They're down from five and a half to three and
- 1:27:14Speaker 1: a half. Fifty five percent of the tickets and cash
- 1:27:18Speaker 1: on the Lakers, so it's hard to read what the
- 1:27:20Speaker 1: money's really doing here. I don't know how much weight
- 1:27:23Speaker 1: we want to put into that line move. I don't
- 1:27:26Speaker 1: really want to fade the Lakers in a late night
- 1:27:28Speaker 1: game like this, or the Grizzlies having to go out there.
- 1:27:30Speaker 1: Grizzlies are kind of off a more difficult game as well. Really,
- 1:27:34Speaker 1: the overtime game against Phillies. So it would probably be
- 1:27:38Speaker 1: Lakers or passed for me in this one, to be honest,
- 1:27:40Speaker 1: but I don't. I don't want anything to do with it.
- 1:27:44Speaker 1: Strongest NBA leen Oh god, I don't know, because I
- 1:27:49Speaker 1: hate all of the games, absolutely hate them. Man, I
- 1:27:58Speaker 1: don't know. I don't like these games at all. I
- 1:28:02Speaker 1: really don't. Hawks. Probably, I would say the Hawks plus
- 1:28:08Speaker 1: the points. I think the Knicks are kind of in
- 1:28:10Speaker 1: a sandwich spot here, right, that was my assessment. Yeah,
- 1:28:14Speaker 1: I mean Philadelphia Detroit are their next two opponents. They're
- 1:28:17Speaker 1: coming off that tough game to San Antonio. They're also
- 1:28:20Speaker 1: technically returning over a road trip as well, which I
- 1:28:23Speaker 1: don't I don't know if I mentioned that or not
- 1:28:25Speaker 1: for less than a week though, but still it did
- 1:28:27Speaker 1: take them to Texas. Yeah, I think the Hawks are
- 1:28:30Speaker 1: probably the best NBA leens today. I do not have
- 1:28:35Speaker 1: a play on it, though. Gotta get back, dude, I'm
- 1:28:37Speaker 1: being maybe overly selective here, but that's just the way
- 1:28:40Speaker 1: that it is. And then we have college football bowls here, man.
- 1:28:45Speaker 1: No playoffs today, No playoffs, you know, playoffs. Don't talk
- 1:28:52Speaker 1: about the playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs. I just hope
- 1:28:56Speaker 1: we can win a game another game. Now, the Bowl
- 1:29:00Speaker 1: don't starting at a one pm today, and two of
- 1:29:02Speaker 1: them ranis. Three of them are on ESPN, so ESPN
- 1:29:05Speaker 1: is a triple header, and then there are two prime
- 1:29:07Speaker 1: time Bowl games. The first Bowl game up is the
- 1:29:11Speaker 1: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl boom in Fort Worth, Texas,
- 1:29:17Speaker 1: because of course it is, yeah, Lockheed Martin. This is
- 1:29:21Speaker 1: the bomb Gaza Armed Forces Bowl here. Interestingly, well not
- 1:29:28Speaker 1: that interesting, because there are a lot of Texas teams
- 1:29:30Speaker 1: and a lot of times these Texas teams draw a
- 1:29:33Speaker 1: Texas Bowl, and that's what we got here. Rice and
- 1:29:35Speaker 1: Texas State are both in the state of Texas. Rice
- 1:29:38Speaker 1: is in Houston, so they're going up north out of
- 1:29:41Speaker 1: Fort Worth here, and Texas State is in San Marcos.
- 1:29:45Speaker 1: Is at the name of it, they're kind of they're
- 1:29:48Speaker 1: about like a two to two and a half hour
- 1:29:50Speaker 1: drive west of Houston, I believe, So both teams are
- 1:29:53Speaker 1: having to travel here, so they're both in Texas, but
- 1:29:57Speaker 1: they're both maybe traveling enough that they consider this week
- 1:30:00Speaker 1: of a destination Bowl. Now, when I first looked at this,
- 1:30:03Speaker 1: I'm like, well, Rice is one of those teams it's
- 1:30:05Speaker 1: five and seven and they get invited into a bowl
- 1:30:08Speaker 1: just because so many teams didn't want to take bowl bids,
- 1:30:11Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So these five and seven
- 1:30:13Speaker 1: teams get invited and when they accept that usually means
- 1:30:16Speaker 1: they want to be here something. Well, Rice wants to
- 1:30:19Speaker 1: be here. Rice is facing kind of an in state
- 1:30:21Speaker 1: bigger brother here in Texas State. So my first reaction
- 1:30:24Speaker 1: here was Rice probably wants to be here. They'll probably
- 1:30:27Speaker 1: be the more excited team. And it turns out not
- 1:30:31Speaker 1: so much. It looks like Rice, dude, this is the
- 1:30:34Speaker 1: new era. Man. Like these teams that think they're not
- 1:30:36Speaker 1: going to be in a Bowl, they just have all
- 1:30:38Speaker 1: these guys like declaring that there's not like they're just
- 1:30:41Speaker 1: gonna move on basically, and they enter the transfer portal
- 1:30:44Speaker 1: on whatever's going on now. It's not that extreme, but
- 1:30:48Speaker 1: Rice's quarterback is not playing Jenkins, so he has entered
- 1:30:52Speaker 1: the transfer portal. He's not playing. It looks like it's
- 1:30:55Speaker 1: gonna be Creighton June or a quarterback wherever that is
- 1:30:58Speaker 1: now for Rice. I don't really know how much that
- 1:31:00Speaker 1: matters for Rice because Rice is a team that runs
- 1:31:04Speaker 1: the ball almost almost all the time. Because they're basically
- 1:31:08Speaker 1: like a triple option offense, so they run the football
- 1:31:12Speaker 1: all the time. And yes, I know sometimes it's hard
- 1:31:15Speaker 1: to prepare for a triple option, but Rice doesn't exactly
- 1:31:17Speaker 1: do it well. They kind of become one dimensional. They're
- 1:31:21Speaker 1: just very they're really weak offense. Man Rice is Texas
- 1:31:24Speaker 1: State has the much more potent offense out of these two.
- 1:31:28Speaker 1: Now Rice does have actually more people opting out of
- 1:31:31Speaker 1: this game. Interestingly, Texas State, they're one of those teams
- 1:31:35Speaker 1: that's sitting at six and six man in Texas State,
- 1:31:37Speaker 1: they were actually better than this record makes it look.
- 1:31:40Speaker 1: Texas State lost like four or five games this year
- 1:31:43Speaker 1: when they were favored, and in some of them they
- 1:31:45Speaker 1: were favored pretty significantly. So they really underperformed this year.
- 1:31:48Speaker 1: And I was talking about that down the stretch and
- 1:31:51Speaker 1: a lot of times these six and six teams they
- 1:31:53Speaker 1: show up for bowl games because they don't want to
- 1:31:55Speaker 1: finish the season on a losing record. And look at
- 1:31:58Speaker 1: what Texas State did. They won three games in a
- 1:32:00Speaker 1: row to finish the season, so they really looked like
- 1:32:03Speaker 1: they wanted to get to a bowl. And it kind
- 1:32:05Speaker 1: of shows because even though this Texas State team is
- 1:32:08Speaker 1: in Bowls a lot like this coach that they have,
- 1:32:12Speaker 1: that these guys play for this coach man, and they
- 1:32:15Speaker 1: have done decently in Bowls I think during his tenure
- 1:32:18Speaker 1: as well. And they don't really have a whole lot
- 1:32:20Speaker 1: of guys opting out here. Man. They kicked one guy
- 1:32:23Speaker 1: off the team, but that was way back in the
- 1:32:25Speaker 1: middle of the season, and really Texas State is a
- 1:32:27Speaker 1: pretty intact team. Man. They have one guy with an injury,
- 1:32:30Speaker 1: and really they don't have a whole lot going on here.
- 1:32:33Speaker 1: They have two guys in the transfer portal, but that
- 1:32:35Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean they're not gonna play. So Texas State
- 1:32:38Speaker 1: looks like they pretty much have their full team, and
- 1:32:41Speaker 1: Rice doesn't really. So the line has moved up from
- 1:32:44Speaker 1: ten and a half to eighteen and a half now
- 1:32:46Speaker 1: on Texas Tech. Absolutely crazy, eighteen and a half out
- 1:32:51Speaker 1: of Texas State. Why do I keep saying Texas Tech
- 1:32:53Speaker 1: Texas State? Excuse me? I'm like Steve Merrillman on wager
- 1:32:57Speaker 1: talkas when he talked about these games, he said Texas
- 1:33:00Speaker 1: Tech as well, the money looks like it is on
- 1:33:03Speaker 1: Texas State seventy six percent of tickets, ninety one percent
- 1:33:06Speaker 1: of the cash. I think they're gonna win this game,
- 1:33:08Speaker 1: probably by a pretty big margin, but there's no way
- 1:33:12Speaker 1: that there's any value left at this point. At eighteen
- 1:33:14Speaker 1: and a half, I don't think you could lay that
- 1:33:16Speaker 1: eighteen and a half. Maybe anything below seventeen kind of
- 1:33:19Speaker 1: made sense, but eighteen and a half, I think you
- 1:33:21Speaker 1: just got to stay away. I don't really want any
- 1:33:23Speaker 1: part of Rice either, though. Like Rice, their offense might
- 1:33:27Speaker 1: struggle here. The total is in the mid fifties, but
- 1:33:29Speaker 1: it has dropped U seventy percent of the tickets on
- 1:33:33Speaker 1: the over fifty six percent of the cash on the under.
- 1:33:35Speaker 1: Probably has to do with Rice losing their quarterback and
- 1:33:38Speaker 1: stuff like that, because even though they don't throw the
- 1:33:40Speaker 1: ball the quarterback a lot of times when it's like
- 1:33:42Speaker 1: a triple option attack, the quarterback runs a lot is
- 1:33:45Speaker 1: involved in that style of offense. So losing their quarterback
- 1:33:49Speaker 1: probably is fairly significant, I guess, because otherwise the line
- 1:33:53Speaker 1: wouldn't really move like this. So to me, it does
- 1:33:56Speaker 1: seem like Rice is kind of not showing up in
- 1:33:58Speaker 1: this game, though, so I think Texas State wins. Don't
- 1:34:02Speaker 1: really want to lay it when it's at this price,
- 1:34:04Speaker 1: But I really don't want any part of Rice either,
- 1:34:06Speaker 1: and I don't really want any part of the under either,
- 1:34:09Speaker 1: even though Rice's offense could definitely struggle here. But Texas
- 1:34:12Speaker 1: State should be able to score a lot of points
- 1:34:15Speaker 1: in this one. I would have to imagine. And then
- 1:34:18Speaker 1: I don't know, man, maybe Rice doesn't have to do
- 1:34:20Speaker 1: a whole lot to get this thing over the total.
- 1:34:22Speaker 1: In Texas State, I don't think their defense is really
- 1:34:25Speaker 1: that excellent, so we'll see. But yeah, obviously I'm not
- 1:34:29Speaker 1: going to play this game. Jeffrey is going to be
- 1:34:32Speaker 1: on Navy in the Liberty Bowl here, which is the
- 1:34:37Speaker 1: Auto Zone Liberty Bowl. There you have a more palatable
- 1:34:41Speaker 1: sponsor there, you get a car, a car care company. Here.
- 1:34:46Speaker 1: This game is in Memphis, Tennessee. I believe it's hosted
- 1:34:49Speaker 1: by the University of Memphis. One thing to be aware
- 1:34:52Speaker 1: of is it's going to be raining, and that is
- 1:34:55Speaker 1: going to help Navy if it's raining. So are definitely
- 1:35:00Speaker 1: some advantages to Navy in this one. This is Navy
- 1:35:02Speaker 1: against Cincinnati, and first look, you might think, well, the
- 1:35:05Speaker 1: big twelve team, Cincinnati is the better team. I think
- 1:35:08Speaker 1: they should be favored here, and they were going to
- 1:35:10Speaker 1: be a small favorite Cincinnati is gonna be about a
- 1:35:12Speaker 1: two point favorite. But obviously Cincinnati is not excited to
- 1:35:17Speaker 1: be in this Bowl, and they have a lot of
- 1:35:19Speaker 1: guys not playing. I think out of all the teams today,
- 1:35:22Speaker 1: Cincinnati has by far the most opt outs. Like their
- 1:35:25Speaker 1: team is just not really showing up, including their quarterback.
- 1:35:29Speaker 1: I forget his name, but they're just Cincinnati is not
- 1:35:32Speaker 1: showing up. Man. I mean, look at all these guys
- 1:35:34Speaker 1: soars me as their quarterback, he's not playing. They have
- 1:35:37Speaker 1: a lot of guys in the transfer portal, and according
- 1:35:41Speaker 1: to this none of these guys are on the depth
- 1:35:43Speaker 1: chart for the Bowl. So Cincinnati has a ton of
- 1:35:46Speaker 1: guys not playing in this game. And that's why Navy
- 1:35:48Speaker 1: is now a seven point favorite. The question is like, yeah,
- 1:35:52Speaker 1: Navy should win this game. The question is are they
- 1:35:55Speaker 1: gonna cover? And that is I don't know. This looks
- 1:35:58Speaker 1: very similar to that Army game where Army did win
- 1:36:01Speaker 1: by a pretty big margin against Yukon, because I remember
- 1:36:04Speaker 1: Yukon was probably gonna be like a small favor of
- 1:36:07Speaker 1: small dog and that when their whole team decided not
- 1:36:10Speaker 1: to play in the game basically, and that game was
- 1:36:13Speaker 1: in kind of iffy weather as well in the cold
- 1:36:16Speaker 1: in Femway Park. Now this game kind of similar to that.
- 1:36:20Speaker 1: It's gonna be kind of wet. It's gonna be definitely wet.
- 1:36:22Speaker 1: It's gonna be in the fifties. And that definitely has
- 1:36:26Speaker 1: to help Navy. Man when you're a team that runs
- 1:36:28Speaker 1: the football all the time and you play well in
- 1:36:30Speaker 1: the trenches and whatever, I think the bad weather, Navy
- 1:36:34Speaker 1: is definitely more well suited to the bad weather. So
- 1:36:37Speaker 1: that is another advantage to Navy here. But they have
- 1:36:39Speaker 1: eighty percent of the tickets and only seventy six percent
- 1:36:41Speaker 1: of the cash on them, So the public is on Navy,
- 1:36:45Speaker 1: and it looks like the money is kind of taking
- 1:36:48Speaker 1: back on Cincinnati a little bit. But really I think
- 1:36:51Speaker 1: that's just a fade of the overre the possible overreaction
- 1:36:55Speaker 1: in the market. Really you have to figure out is
- 1:36:57Speaker 1: this really an overreaction or not. And if Cincinnati's like
- 1:37:02Speaker 1: whole team isn't showing up, maybe it really isn't. I
- 1:37:04Speaker 1: don't know. Like I would not want Cincinnati in this game,
- 1:37:07Speaker 1: I'll tell you that much. Now. Navy, of course, like
- 1:37:09Speaker 1: I said, with Army, these service academies, they don't do
- 1:37:14Speaker 1: the transfer portal things, so they pretty much field their
- 1:37:17Speaker 1: full team for these bowl games. And in the New
- 1:37:20Speaker 1: Era and whatever, that's also part not the new era
- 1:37:22Speaker 1: Pinstripe Ball. New Era doesn't sponsor that game anymore. But
- 1:37:25Speaker 1: in the New era of football, the Service academies they
- 1:37:30Speaker 1: do well man in these bowl games. But it also
- 1:37:32Speaker 1: has to do with the fact that they're disciplined. They
- 1:37:35Speaker 1: don't make as many mistakes because of that, and because
- 1:37:38Speaker 1: they run the football all the time, they don't have
- 1:37:40Speaker 1: to worry about that long layoff. Although Navy doesn't have
- 1:37:42Speaker 1: to worry about that anyway though, really because they played
- 1:37:44Speaker 1: in the Army Navy game, which I talked about with
- 1:37:47Speaker 1: Army as well. But these service academies do well in
- 1:37:50Speaker 1: bowls typically as well because the long layoff doesn't affect
- 1:37:53Speaker 1: them as much. And I think it would affect Cincinnati
- 1:37:55Speaker 1: because Cincinnati mostly is a passing attack on offense, and
- 1:37:59Speaker 1: I don't even know who their backup quarterback is in
- 1:38:01Speaker 1: this game or what that attack is going to look like.
- 1:38:04Speaker 1: But when you're a team that throws the football, that
- 1:38:06Speaker 1: will affect your offense more so Cincinnati's offense should be
- 1:38:10Speaker 1: affected a little bit more by that. Cincinnati does not
- 1:38:13Speaker 1: defend the run well either, by the way, so Navy
- 1:38:16Speaker 1: should be able to power their way through this game
- 1:38:19Speaker 1: with their triple option attack. And I expect Navy to
- 1:38:22Speaker 1: probably be gaining some huge chunks on the ground in
- 1:38:25Speaker 1: this game against the Cincinnati defense, and in the rain
- 1:38:29Speaker 1: on slick Services, it might make the defending it even
- 1:38:31Speaker 1: more difficult actually, so definitely a significant amount of advantages
- 1:38:37Speaker 1: for Navy here. Again, that's why the line has moved now,
- 1:38:39Speaker 1: as I pointed out the well, as I was just
- 1:38:42Speaker 1: alluding to the Service accounties in eleven and one against
- 1:38:45Speaker 1: the spread in the last twelve games that've been in.
- 1:38:48Speaker 1: Although take it with a grain of salt because most
- 1:38:50Speaker 1: of those games they were underdogs, but of course Army
- 1:38:53Speaker 1: is included as one of those in Army was a
- 1:38:54Speaker 1: pretty big favorite this year. Navy also is Navy has
- 1:38:59Speaker 1: the better offense an Army does, although Navy is worse
- 1:39:01Speaker 1: defensively than Army is, so keep all that in mind.
- 1:39:05Speaker 1: Navy actually throws the ball a little bit on offense,
- 1:39:09Speaker 1: but not that much. I don't know. They'll probably not
- 1:39:11Speaker 1: be doing it as much in the rain either, but
- 1:39:13Speaker 1: their rushing attack should be strong in this one. Now,
- 1:39:17Speaker 1: the total we have fifty nine percent of tickets on
- 1:39:19Speaker 1: the over, seventy seven percent of the cash and the over.
- 1:39:21Speaker 1: The totals up to fifty six. But it's hard to
- 1:39:26Speaker 1: gauge the total, man, because if Navy is gonna be
- 1:39:28Speaker 1: running the football, it might mean there are gonna be
- 1:39:30Speaker 1: fewer points in the game. But then again, in college football,
- 1:39:32Speaker 1: when you have a really strong rushing attack, you can
- 1:39:35Speaker 1: still score a lot of points that way, So I
- 1:39:38Speaker 1: do worry about then. And of course Navy's defense is
- 1:39:40Speaker 1: not that good, so it is possible that Cincinnati's backup
- 1:39:44Speaker 1: offense they show you know, they kind of show up.
- 1:39:46Speaker 1: They at least want to play, even though they're less talented,
- 1:39:49Speaker 1: and it is possible they are able to get some
- 1:39:51Speaker 1: points against Navy's defense, which just isn't that good. So
- 1:39:55Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't want an under in this game money
- 1:39:58Speaker 1: kind of indicating on the over, I'll lean Navy on
- 1:40:03Speaker 1: the side, especially if you can get seven or better,
- 1:40:06Speaker 1: you know, don't lay the hook to seven and a half,
- 1:40:07Speaker 1: get like the key number. At least gets seven. But
- 1:40:10Speaker 1: I just don't love it, man, Maybe you could have
- 1:40:12Speaker 1: had more value, like earlier in the Bowl season, although
- 1:40:17Speaker 1: of course this is because of all the opt outs,
- 1:40:18Speaker 1: and maybe it's even not enough of a reaction. A
- 1:40:21Speaker 1: lot of times you do see that in these bowl
- 1:40:23Speaker 1: games where the line moves a ton and it's still
- 1:40:26Speaker 1: not enough. But I don't know, I feel like I'm
- 1:40:28Speaker 1: talking about this game too much, but that Navy should win,
- 1:40:31Speaker 1: and then of course they will have the ability to
- 1:40:34Speaker 1: cover a number like this as a favorite by running
- 1:40:37Speaker 1: the football. So if Navy's winning the game, just like
- 1:40:40Speaker 1: Army the other day, a good rushing attack can pad
- 1:40:44Speaker 1: the lead while they're doing what they do best, you
- 1:40:46Speaker 1: know what I mean. Like they're gonna be running the
- 1:40:47Speaker 1: football because they're ahead, but they can also be scoring
- 1:40:50Speaker 1: more points while they're doing that. So all stuff to
- 1:40:54Speaker 1: keep in mind. The Bowl that we've all been waiting for, though, well,
- 1:40:58Speaker 1: actually I'm gonna talk about it last, I guess, so
- 1:41:00Speaker 1: I'll hold off on that one. But we do have
- 1:41:02Speaker 1: two games at eight pm. Those first two games are
- 1:41:04Speaker 1: both on ESPN. This first game at eight pm is
- 1:41:08Speaker 1: on Fox, which is number seventeen in Arizona and SMU
- 1:41:11Speaker 1: in the Trust and Will Holiday Bowl, which used to
- 1:41:15Speaker 1: be something else. I don't know what Trust and will
- 1:41:17Speaker 1: is maybe I don't want to know. As long as
- 1:41:22Speaker 1: it's not stranger things related, I don't think it is.
- 1:41:24Speaker 1: It probably has to do with it. Probably is some
- 1:41:28Speaker 1: legal firm or something like that that handles like wills
- 1:41:32Speaker 1: for people, you know what I mean, something like that
- 1:41:34Speaker 1: that it has something to do with that. I assume
- 1:41:37Speaker 1: this is in San Diego, California. It's gonna be good weather.
- 1:41:40Speaker 1: It looks like here it's gonna be in the sixties.
- 1:41:42Speaker 1: A good weather in the Texas game as well, by
- 1:41:44Speaker 1: the way, and the Armed Forces both seventy and sunny,
- 1:41:48Speaker 1: so you know, we're not expecting bad weather in some
- 1:41:50Speaker 1: of these games here today. This is the Holiday Bowl.
- 1:41:54Speaker 1: Like I said, it's in San Diego. Now, the location
- 1:41:57Speaker 1: is a little bit better for Arizona than SMU because
- 1:41:59Speaker 1: they're a little bit closer to it, So Arizona might
- 1:42:02Speaker 1: have a little bit more of a fan base in
- 1:42:05Speaker 1: this game. But the thing is Arizona the fact that
- 1:42:08Speaker 1: there they were at one point favorite. Now they're actually
- 1:42:11Speaker 1: a one point dog. SMU is going from one to
- 1:42:13Speaker 1: that point dog to a one point favorite. Now. The
- 1:42:16Speaker 1: money is all over SMU in this game. Seventy percent
- 1:42:19Speaker 1: of the cash on SMU fifty three percent of the
- 1:42:21Speaker 1: tickets on Arizona. You've got to think Arizona's gonna be
- 1:42:24Speaker 1: a bit of a public side, like people looking, oh,
- 1:42:26Speaker 1: it's a pick the winner, and we get a ranked
- 1:42:28Speaker 1: Arizona team here against SMU. It looks so easy to
- 1:42:32Speaker 1: play Arizona, right, But the money seems to be indicating otherwise.
- 1:42:37Speaker 1: And there are a lot of question marks in this
- 1:42:40Speaker 1: game as far as the opt outs, and that's because
- 1:42:44Speaker 1: the coach for Arizona, Brett Brennan, has not announced the
- 1:42:49Speaker 1: opt outs because he's trying to keep SMU guessing. But
- 1:42:53Speaker 1: you know, the odds makers have some information here. It
- 1:42:55Speaker 1: loves like the line is moving towards SMU because Arizona
- 1:42:58Speaker 1: has got to have some opt out in this game,
- 1:43:00Speaker 1: and that's the only reason why SMU has got to
- 1:43:03Speaker 1: be seeing money. And Arizona was actually a three point
- 1:43:06Speaker 1: favorite at one point in this game. So there's gotta
- 1:43:09Speaker 1: be some opt outs on the Arizona side here. So
- 1:43:13Speaker 1: I don't know how significant they're gonna because the coach
- 1:43:15Speaker 1: isn't letting us know. It seemed like, yeah, I mean,
- 1:43:20Speaker 1: we don't know. But for Arizona, looks like there are
- 1:43:22Speaker 1: going to be some opt outs. It looks like Arizona
- 1:43:23Speaker 1: might not totally take this game seriously, which kind of
- 1:43:27Speaker 1: surprises me though, because Arizona missed out on the Bowls
- 1:43:29Speaker 1: season last year, so I thought they might be excited
- 1:43:32Speaker 1: to get back to a bowl, whereas for SMU, they
- 1:43:35Speaker 1: were in the playoff last year. Man, So why would
- 1:43:37Speaker 1: SMU be that excited to play in the Holiday Bowl
- 1:43:40Speaker 1: this year? I don't know. I mean, I guess maybe
- 1:43:42Speaker 1: because they get to play another power conference team in Arizona.
- 1:43:45Speaker 1: Maybe they get excited about that. I don't know, But
- 1:43:48Speaker 1: it looks like SMU for the most part, is somewhat
- 1:43:50Speaker 1: showing up here. A Jennings, their quarterback that they've had
- 1:43:54Speaker 1: for the last few years. He's got a lot of
- 1:43:55Speaker 1: bowl experience. Looked like he might not play in this game,
- 1:43:59Speaker 1: but now it looks like he I So it looks
- 1:44:02Speaker 1: like SMU doesn't have a ton of guys not playing
- 1:44:05Speaker 1: in this game. So it looks like more of the
- 1:44:06Speaker 1: opt outs are gonna hit Arizona in this game. So
- 1:44:10Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with SMU here, But the way
- 1:44:13Speaker 1: that this Bowl set up when I first looked at it,
- 1:44:15Speaker 1: just where I thought the motivation would be was opposite.
- 1:44:19Speaker 1: That so very interesting. But I don't want to fade
- 1:44:22Speaker 1: a market read like this either, So I think it's
- 1:44:24Speaker 1: got to be Smu or Pass in that one. And
- 1:44:27Speaker 1: then we have the final game, the one you've all
- 1:44:29Speaker 1: been waiting for him. Man, the Duke's Mayo Bowl. Here
- 1:44:32Speaker 1: it is, Man, It's at eight pms on ESPN. Wake
- 1:44:35Speaker 1: Forest and Mississippi State are in this bowl. It's in Charlotte,
- 1:44:38Speaker 1: North Carolina. Garrett, Garrett, you go into this game, the
- 1:44:42Speaker 1: Mayo Bowl. You can get some free mayo at the game. Now,
- 1:44:46Speaker 1: this bowl has become notorious. This used to be like
- 1:44:49Speaker 1: the Belk Bowl, I think in the Minucky Carcare Bowl,
- 1:44:52Speaker 1: and I forget what else it was. But it's been
- 1:44:54Speaker 1: the Duke's Mayo Bowl for like five six years now,
- 1:44:57Speaker 1: and it is infamous for its humiliation and ritual where
- 1:45:00Speaker 1: the winning coach has a vat of Duke's Mayo dumped
- 1:45:04Speaker 1: onto them. I know it sounds insane, but you've seen
- 1:45:08Speaker 1: what's going on with like the Pop Tar Bowl and
- 1:45:10Speaker 1: the Cheese Its Bowl whatever. I'm not making this up.
- 1:45:13Speaker 1: This is what happens in the Duke's Mayo ball. In
- 1:45:15Speaker 1: the Idaho Potato Bowl, the winning coach gets fries dumped
- 1:45:19Speaker 1: on their head. That's a lot easier to deal with
- 1:45:21Speaker 1: than mayo. But you can, dude, you can go see
- 1:45:24Speaker 1: the videos of this. Every coach that's won this Bowl
- 1:45:27Speaker 1: has taken the Mayo bath, and that's what's gonna have
- 1:45:29Speaker 1: to happen here. Maybe that means the coach doesn't want
- 1:45:32Speaker 1: to win, but I don't really think it factors into
- 1:45:35Speaker 1: the bowl handicapped. Now, first look at this game. You
- 1:45:38Speaker 1: gotta notice that Mississippi States a three point favorite. Why
- 1:45:43Speaker 1: is Mississippi State a three point favorite. They're a five
- 1:45:45Speaker 1: and seven team and wake Forest is eight and four. Right,
- 1:45:48Speaker 1: so the oddsmakers are telling you Mississippi State's the better team,
- 1:45:51Speaker 1: like they've faced the more difficult schedule. They're in the SEC.
- 1:45:54Speaker 1: I know, say what you want about the SEC being
- 1:45:56Speaker 1: overrated and whatever, but clearly the SEC is more powerful
- 1:46:00Speaker 1: conference than the ACC. Okay, that's just the way that
- 1:46:03Speaker 1: it is. So Mississippi State's favored for a reason. It
- 1:46:07Speaker 1: looks weird that they're a favorite even though they're a
- 1:46:10Speaker 1: week five and seventeen. So again, it's one of these
- 1:46:14Speaker 1: fishy lines here, So that makes me lean towards Mississippi
- 1:46:16Speaker 1: State for that reason because the public is not really
- 1:46:19Speaker 1: gonna want them. Fifty four percent of tickets on Mississippi State,
- 1:46:22Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash, the line's like it's moving
- 1:46:25Speaker 1: a little bit towards Mississippi State. Oh, I forgot to
- 1:46:28Speaker 1: talk about the total in that Arizona in SMU game.
- 1:46:31Speaker 1: By the way, it's sitting at fifty two with not
- 1:46:33Speaker 1: much movement, eighty four percent of tickets and ninety five
- 1:46:36Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. But it's really
- 1:46:39Speaker 1: hard to gauge the total with not knowing who's gonna
- 1:46:41Speaker 1: play for Arizona, So the money's kind of indicating on
- 1:46:44Speaker 1: the over. But I have no real sense for that,
- 1:46:47Speaker 1: which is basically why I didn't talk about it all.
- 1:46:49Speaker 1: Right now, for Wake in Mississippi State, I actually think
- 1:46:52Speaker 1: both teams should be excited to be here because I
- 1:46:55Speaker 1: think both teams have had some Bowl droughts here, Like
- 1:46:58Speaker 1: I think Wake hasn't been in a Bowl for a
- 1:47:00Speaker 1: bit in Mississippi State, I know missed out on the
- 1:47:03Speaker 1: Bowl last year and maybe even the year before that,
- 1:47:05Speaker 1: So I think both teams should be excited to be here.
- 1:47:09Speaker 1: Usually when a team is five and seven, like I
- 1:47:11Speaker 1: just said, they're gonna show up, even though I know
- 1:47:12Speaker 1: it looks like Rice is not showing up in their
- 1:47:14Speaker 1: bowl game. And we saw one of the other five
- 1:47:16Speaker 1: and seven teams, what was it yesterday, didn't show up either,
- 1:47:19Speaker 1: I forget. But with Mississippi State, Man, I mean, they're
- 1:47:23Speaker 1: kind of a proud program and being able to get
- 1:47:25Speaker 1: back to a bowl again. You know, there's a reason
- 1:47:27Speaker 1: why they accepted the bowl invite, because they got the
- 1:47:30Speaker 1: bowl invited at five and seven. You gotta look at
- 1:47:33Speaker 1: their opt outs, of course, but for Mississippi State, it
- 1:47:36Speaker 1: doesn't look like there's really much. So they fired their
- 1:47:40Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. It looks like I'm okay with that. Their
- 1:47:43Speaker 1: old defensive coordinator is coming back actually, so I don't
- 1:47:47Speaker 1: think that's a huge problem for Mississippi State. And then
- 1:47:50Speaker 1: for Mississippi State, we don't know who their quarterback is
- 1:47:52Speaker 1: gonna be. And I think that's more because of an
- 1:47:54Speaker 1: injury issue with Shaping. Maybe they might be misshaped. They
- 1:47:59Speaker 1: might missshapen in this game. I don't know how you
- 1:48:03Speaker 1: pronounced his name, but Shopping Shaping. He was hurt last
- 1:48:08Speaker 1: year and Man which is part of the reason why
- 1:48:09Speaker 1: they missed the bowls last year. But he got hurt
- 1:48:12Speaker 1: again towards the end of the season, so Taylor stepped
- 1:48:15Speaker 1: in and played a little bit. But I still kind
- 1:48:18Speaker 1: of like Mississippi State regardless of which QB it is here.
- 1:48:21Speaker 1: Taylor at least has some experience under his belt, so
- 1:48:24Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be intimidated by this. I mean,
- 1:48:26Speaker 1: he played against SEC opponents when he was in there
- 1:48:29Speaker 1: down the stretch, so he has a few games under
- 1:48:31Speaker 1: his belt, so I'm not as worried about that quarterback situation.
- 1:48:34Speaker 1: And for the most part, it looks like Mississippi State
- 1:48:37Speaker 1: does not have a lot of guys missing this game.
- 1:48:40Speaker 1: They really don't have anything really listened on the potential
- 1:48:43Speaker 1: opt outs and whatever, just one of their safeties really,
- 1:48:46Speaker 1: so they look like they're gonna have a fully intact roster,
- 1:48:49Speaker 1: Whereas Wake has a few more guys possibly not being
- 1:48:53Speaker 1: in this game, including their running back who's declared for
- 1:48:56Speaker 1: the NFL Draft, Clayborn, so we don't know if he's
- 1:48:59Speaker 1: playing in this game. That would be a little bit
- 1:49:01Speaker 1: of a hit to Wake's offense, which WAKES offense isn't
- 1:49:04Speaker 1: that good to begin with. And yes, I know Wake
- 1:49:07Speaker 1: does have a good defense, Yes, but again it was
- 1:49:10Speaker 1: against acc opponents for the most part, so yes, you
- 1:49:13Speaker 1: could argue Wake is the better defense here getting points.
- 1:49:17Speaker 1: But in this game, I just think you're taking the
- 1:49:19Speaker 1: stronger and more intact team with Mississippi State, and I
- 1:49:22Speaker 1: actually think they're gonna want to show up in this game.
- 1:49:25Speaker 1: So and then, yes, you do have to worry about
- 1:49:28Speaker 1: I do like Mississippi State in this game, but you
- 1:49:30Speaker 1: do have to worry about Wake is closer to campus obviously,
- 1:49:33Speaker 1: because they're playing in Charlotte's. You know they're gonna have
- 1:49:35Speaker 1: a crowd here. Mississippi State should travel okay for this
- 1:49:38Speaker 1: game as well with the cow bells, But of course
- 1:49:41Speaker 1: Wake does have a little bit of a location edge there,
- 1:49:44Speaker 1: and I don't think it's one of those spots where
- 1:49:46Speaker 1: it's gonna be like a disappointed team that's even more
- 1:49:49Speaker 1: disappointed because they don't get to go anywhere for their
- 1:49:52Speaker 1: bowl game, you know what I mean. Like this is
- 1:49:54Speaker 1: a case where I think Wake they just haven't been
- 1:49:56Speaker 1: in that many bowls recently, so I do think they'll
- 1:49:58Speaker 1: they'll show up and there they'll be excited I think
- 1:50:01Speaker 1: to play an SEC team, so I do have my
- 1:50:04Speaker 1: hesitations with it, but I lean Mississippi State in the game,
- 1:50:07Speaker 1: even though I see reasons why both teams will kind
- 1:50:09Speaker 1: of get up for it. For the total in this game,
- 1:50:12Speaker 1: it's moved towards the under a little bit, which I
- 1:50:14Speaker 1: don't disagree with. It's gone down to fifty three from
- 1:50:17Speaker 1: fifty six and a half. Some of them might be
- 1:50:19Speaker 1: the quarterback uncertainty of in Mississippi State. Some of it
- 1:50:23Speaker 1: might be the running back maybe not playing for Wake.
- 1:50:25Speaker 1: But Wake's offense really isn't that good and their defense
- 1:50:28Speaker 1: is better than their offense, so they do play in
- 1:50:30Speaker 1: a lot of lower scoring games. Sixty nine percent of
- 1:50:33Speaker 1: tickets on the over, sixty three percent of the cash
- 1:50:35Speaker 1: on the over. Yeah. Again, I don't disagree with the
- 1:50:39Speaker 1: under here, even though the under seems like it might
- 1:50:41Speaker 1: even correlate to Wake's side though, But I do like
- 1:50:44Speaker 1: the Mississippi State side. I think they get it done.
- 1:50:48Speaker 1: I think their coach winds up having to take the
- 1:50:50Speaker 1: Mayo bath. We'll see though. Not a strong opinion for
- 1:50:53Speaker 1: me though. And that is it, man, that's gonna do
- 1:50:56Speaker 1: it all that almost two hours just to give you
- 1:51:00Speaker 1: Michigan State as my one play in college basketball. Hopefully
- 1:51:03Speaker 1: we can get it done. That's more of a strength
- 1:51:07Speaker 1: of schedule opinion, which fact, that's what factory is in
- 1:51:11Speaker 1: my Oregon play yesterday, So hopefully we can get it done.
- 1:51:13Speaker 1: It's just one play today, I'm going I'm treading very careful,
- 1:51:16Speaker 1: carefully today, treading lightly. I might be back tonight because
- 1:51:21Speaker 1: there's a we're starting conference place. There's a huge Saturday
- 1:51:24Speaker 1: college basketball cards, so I think I have to start
- 1:51:27Speaker 1: doing the Friday night because now that we don't have
- 1:51:31Speaker 1: college football to really talk about it though, I think
- 1:51:33Speaker 1: there are gonna be college football games still to be played,
- 1:51:36Speaker 1: but yeah, like the in the playoffs I believe won't
- 1:51:40Speaker 1: continue until next week or whatever. But yeah, now that
- 1:51:44Speaker 1: I don't have to do college football on Saturday nights,
- 1:51:46Speaker 1: it's now conference play in college basketball, I think I'll
- 1:51:48Speaker 1: probably have to do college basketball Saturday Friday nights. I
- 1:51:51Speaker 1: mean for Saturday's cards, so I'll probably be back to
- 1:51:53Speaker 1: do that. It's gonna be a huge contt it's gonna
- 1:51:56Speaker 1: be very tiring. We'll see lots of stuff from me.
- 1:51:59Speaker 1: Learn tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram. You
- 1:52:02Speaker 1: can check all that out. You can subscribe to me
- 1:52:03Speaker 1: on Twitter like comment on the channel here, tell your
- 1:52:08Speaker 1: friends you know, subscribe of course, getting my numbers up
- 1:52:11Speaker 1: baby on tosool Sports here. We're also on audio. You
- 1:52:16Speaker 1: can listen over there. You can give me a good
- 1:52:18Speaker 1: review that helps on Spotify and Apple. Covered in Yuke
- 1:52:21Speaker 1: is my yuk Lately channel on YouTube, which I haven't
- 1:52:24Speaker 1: done anything since the holidays, but hopefully I'll get back
- 1:52:27Speaker 1: to that as well, so you can check that out
- 1:52:28Speaker 1: as well. Covered in Yuke, we got what else patreon
- 1:52:33Speaker 1: dot com slash learned a tone in this bonus Yuke
- 1:52:36Speaker 1: content there. The Loser Cast, which we did another episode
- 1:52:40Speaker 1: last night that was just me and Late and we're
- 1:52:42Speaker 1: doing a lot of episodes with that show, the new
- 1:52:45Speaker 1: Comedy podcast where we we just nominate losers, Baby, that's
- 1:52:50Speaker 1: what we do. We had kind of an impromptu Tower
- 1:52:54Speaker 1: Gang on New Year's I don't know if you want
- 1:52:57Speaker 1: to call it tower gang or not, but late night,
- 1:52:59Speaker 1: right after the clock struck midnight, Basically Clint wanted to
- 1:53:02Speaker 1: do a show, so I did a show with him
- 1:53:04Speaker 1: and a drunk studio list. Tyler dropped in as well,
- 1:53:07Speaker 1: So that is up most I'd say go check it
- 1:53:10Speaker 1: out on Rumble because I am probably gonna delete it
- 1:53:13Speaker 1: from YouTube, So go check that out on Rumble. And yeah,
- 1:53:18Speaker 1: I mean, I think that does it for all the
- 1:53:20Speaker 1: stuff that I've been doing. I'm gonna be on a
- 1:53:22Speaker 1: couple of podcasts within the next couple of days. I'm
- 1:53:25Speaker 1: gonna be on Gray Pilled Jewels. I'm gonna be on
- 1:53:28Speaker 1: with him on Sunday night, I believe. I don't know
- 1:53:30Speaker 1: what we're gonna talk about, but you can check that out.
- 1:53:32Speaker 1: And then of course I'm gonna do my NFL show
- 1:53:35Speaker 1: here Saturday night as usual. Though we got to talk
- 1:53:38Speaker 1: about two NFL games for tomorrow in the final week,
- 1:53:42Speaker 1: so I'll talk about those in the morning. I don't
- 1:53:45Speaker 1: know if I'm gonna have a play on either one
- 1:53:46Speaker 1: of those yet, I'm considering it maybe. And then I
- 1:53:50Speaker 1: am gonna be on Dude, I apologize to the I
- 1:53:54Speaker 1: forget like what these podcasts are gonna be. I tweeted
- 1:53:56Speaker 1: it out so you can go find it. I forget
- 1:53:58Speaker 1: what the name of the podcast is. I have apologize.
- 1:54:00Speaker 1: And he's got some big guests on his show, like
- 1:54:02Speaker 1: bigger than me. I don't know what we're gonna talk about,
- 1:54:04Speaker 1: but I apologize. You can go check my Twitter. You
- 1:54:07Speaker 1: can see I retweeted it. I wish I remember the
- 1:54:10Speaker 1: name of the show, but I'm gonna be on whatever
- 1:54:11Speaker 1: show that is on the seventh, I believe, so you
- 1:54:15Speaker 1: can check that out as well. That's gonna do it.
- 1:54:18Speaker 1: Let's have a good day today. Let's win with the
- 1:54:20Speaker 1: one playe today with Michigan State. Thank you, sir, thanks
- 1:54:24Speaker 1: for hanging out. Peace, everybody,