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Ethan Pocic · Filmstudy - Baltimore Ravens Talk

0:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Hi, folks.
0:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to another episode of Film Study.
0:05
[SPEAKER_00]: This is Kendrick Music, and we're here for a short to talk about the acquisition of Ethan Posick, the Friatient Center, most recently with the Browns, who is now entering your 10.
0:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Joining me to talk about the Posick signing is Spencer Peterson, Spencer.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: How are you doing?
0:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Doing well, Ken.
0:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for having me.
0:23
[SPEAKER_00]: always always a pleasure to talk flip on with you and this is a great great opportunity to talk about a very interesting move for the Ravens because we've we've we've seen them go through OTAs and mini camp and you know rookie camp I you know with some of these guys to to you know
0:39
[SPEAKER_00]: have three guys including two veteran guys in year four plus Cory Bullock who had surgery and they've gone out and they've gone and signed another center they had hinted that this kind of thing might occur they might get one by trade which I think will let a lot of people think about Garrett Bradbury for example.
0:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's interesting.
0:58
[SPEAKER_01]: This came to bet together pretty quickly after it was announced that he had been physically cleared.
1:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's interesting to think about, is this a move that's been tracking for a while, you know, where they anticipating this, and this is just a matter of making an official, you know, hard to know what's actually happening behind closed doors there.
1:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so supposedly in Jeff Seribet reported this, I'm not thinking credit for this, but they had him in for a workout in May, and I don't think he was ready at that time, but apparently he's been medically cleared now.
1:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know anything about the contract, which is a really key element here, because the Raven's signing is pending a physical.
1:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So we already saw what pending a physical can mean for the Baltimore Ravens that you may come in and they decide this is just too much risk or he may not have a lot of guaranteed money or they may alter the amount of guaranteed money in the deal based on what shows up on the physical and say hey look we can't make you the commitment right now, but we'd love for you to come training camp with us.
1:53
[SPEAKER_00]: and he makes it hopefully at the end of the time.
1:56
[SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, obviously that injury and coming back from it is the big concern.
2:02
[SPEAKER_00]: In terms of physical staturies, about 6, 6, 3, 20, turns 31 and all August has very big hands, over 10 inch ants, and we always like to see that in an offensive lineman.
2:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And long arms for a center at 33 and an eight.
2:15
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of centers are at that position because they
2:21
[SPEAKER_00]: or limitations in terms of arm length and you know a lot of there's a lot more competition in terms of the limited length players on the interior there but he's a guy with longer arms who and you know a tall vertical vertically built athlete who is playing a center.
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, a pretty big contrast to the other guys they have in camp were on the roster at this point in more ways than one.
2:46
[SPEAKER_01]: You just mentioned the physical stature portion.
2:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think off the top, you mentioned 10 years in the league.
2:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Something approaching 100 starts over the course of his career or 100 games played, I forget exactly which is a quite in contrast to the other guys we have on the roster who I think have less than 10 between them or theirabouts.
3:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so 97 starts, but he's that a problem staying on the field, the guy in in nine seasons has had 12.7 games per season and 10.8 starts per season.
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's not playing a full season a whole lot of the time, and he hasn't even really been a starter.
3:23
[SPEAKER_00]: His entire career, I guess.
3:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And what he started off in Seattle, he wasn't starting every game.
3:27
[SPEAKER_00]: But certainly with the Browns, he earned a big contract for in 23 that was a three-year deal and he survived it.
3:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a good sign.
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's a guy who certainly there are a lot of question marks coming up to him in this year.
3:45
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not just the physical stuff because the mobility will be a question.
3:48
[SPEAKER_00]: But a lot of it's about his performance these last three years.
3:56
[SPEAKER_00]: scoring rankings effectively in a fairly linear fashion over the last four seasons from 22 to 25.
4:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's interesting to, and I'm, I wonder if you have taken a look at this at all again, but if there's any aspect of the, not necessarily supporting cast, but the quarterback that we're playing behind him, that potentially impacted his rating a bit, you know, Shoulder Sanders had some of the worst pocket presence when he first came into some games, you know, Dylan Gabriel's not a world leader back there.
4:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that a lot of this tries to separate out kind of result of the play if someone's running around for five seconds to get sack that's
4:36
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, part of me wonders and maybe this is just happy happy talk, you know, hopeful thinking, but that some of that can be explained by the situation in Cleveland.
4:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that PFF does a very good job with their underlying ratings with the exception of penalties, that with their underlying ratings on individual play.
4:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to be very consistent about using the plus two to minus two scale.
5:00
[SPEAKER_00]: We used to get that directly.
5:01
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, people who've grown up, but are younger fans, or just have learned about PFF in the last couple of years or last five years, even you missed a great era where you really could see the negative scores.
5:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Not on a per play basis, but on a per game basis that aggregated, you know, all these plus two to minus two ratings, they don't show you that anymore.
5:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And now they transfer that into a single grade and oftentimes you can have a really bad game in several good ones and you wonder why isn't that at least average in total or a little bit better, but what's because the bad game
5:31
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, expressed as on the plus two to minus two scale aggregated is very poor.
5:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, postsick as a guy, I think that they've done I'm sure a good job getting the ratings underneath those records.
5:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I don't trust them.
5:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't trust them on integer stats for assigning sacks and pressures and in particular centers it's going to be terrible.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if the center allows the pressure, but somebody else allows the sack, then they never give the sack to the center.
5:58
[SPEAKER_00]: If anybody else, forget it, somebody else allows the sack.
6:01
[SPEAKER_00]: If the player runs out of the pocket, the quarterback runs out of the pocket is tackled by the defensive end.
6:06
[SPEAKER_00]: The center is not charged for that sack, even if he allowed the initial pressure and that's, that to me is just, it's not very representative, let's put it that way.
6:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and they also have problems with penalties, but they don't have problems.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: They really don't have problems at all in terms of assigning pluses and minuses on a per-play basis.
6:23
[SPEAKER_00]: They do a good job with that.
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think that if you're worried about Shudder Sanders ruining post-exraiding, I don't think that would be the source of it.
6:31
[SPEAKER_00]: His own penalties may be understated within that rating.
6:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's got to, yes, that's in problems with penalties.
6:36
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't think it's, I don't think it would be Sanders or any of the other, you know, DTR or any of the guys behind him.
6:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Fair enough.
6:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, anyway, last four seasons, I'll just toss it out there as past blocker.
6:51
[SPEAKER_00]: He's gone from 8th and 22 to 5th and 24 to 9th in 20.
6:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, 5th and 23, 9th in 24 and then he was 20th.
7:04
[SPEAKER_00]: in 25.
7:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was almost the same number of players in this group.
7:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the guys who had at least half the snaps, and that was 31, 31, 28, and 31 guys from 22 to 25.
7:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's almost exactly the same size of the set each year.
7:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw some other things and so he was 20 at the 40.
7:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Somebody else is using a different snap count, let me take, that's all that.
7:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just
7:29
[SPEAKER_00]: of the top guys he's you know he slipped and the blocking he's he's gone from 5 to 15 to 18 to 21st over that four-year period that's for run blocking so you know it's he's definitely been into climb and and it's something browns fans are leaning into in this time they are they are literally giddy for the ravens to have him they think the Mason Graham is going to eat his lunch when the
7:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I, when I was looking to learn a little bit more about postsick, I wanted to be careful not to look at, you know, raven sources in the last three days and Cleveland sources in the last three days and really wanted to see, you know, Cleveland sources in the last two off-season prior to this one and, you know, league sources may be prior to the signing happening because I do think there's a little bit of a motivated reasoning, motivated thinking on both sides
8:26
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, despite the decline that we're seeing, if you think about those ratings, it does feel like a floor raising move for the line to some degree, given the complete unknowns that we have at the position now.
8:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And if that's not your top concern, it's got to be among your top three.
8:40
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're a Ravens fan.
8:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, absolutely some some floor raising there.
8:46
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the injuries kind of cut into that a little bit, you know, ideally have a guy who, you know, had steady performance and was, you know, not off the field or was able to stay on the field rather, but that guy's probably getting paid and not available right now.
8:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, in terms of what's what's a feasible option, this feels like a strong floor raising move.
9:09
[SPEAKER_00]: probably dramatically increases the Raven's chance to have no worse than a 35th or 40th percentile center.
9:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So where it might have been,
9:20
[SPEAKER_00]: 35% that they would have a 35% health center before.
9:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I might have said now I'd say it's maybe 55% that they have it.
9:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I still do believe, unfortunately, despite the signing of Posec, this is the weakest position on the team still.
9:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And it comes down to him or his line may John Simpson, really.
9:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are the only two guys.
9:42
[SPEAKER_00]: or whom, I think, could get that designation.
9:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see anyone else.
9:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's not running back, because I quoted back, it's really not any of the wider-severed positions.
9:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You could make the case it's tight-end, by the way, that would be a legitimate possible fear.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you go to the defensive line.
9:59
[SPEAKER_00]: They have some questions on the interior of the defensive line, but I don't think that's the problem.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They right, I don't think it's either edge position.
10:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And in part, I don't believe it's either edge position because I think another move is coming.
10:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, you're going to get that, you know, you want to go position by position through his teddybie cannon, maybe he'd be a guy at that week's side linebacker spot if he's not healthy, would be give you some risk of that.
10:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't think it's row-quant, don't think it's any of the three safety's that they play, and I don't think it's either corner-backed position.
10:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I really think the weakest two positions on the field are still the guy standing right next to each other and that offensive line.
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I definitely think that's fair, but I think I would just say that the most important comparison is, you know, a postsick compared to the second best center option, rather than the next worst player on the team across the board.
10:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know if you remember, we did the the, the Bullock expectation show.
10:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was looking back at what I put for a good and a great season for Bullock.
10:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And if we locked in the 2025 performance, at least by as PFF rankings, that would be about what I said is the 80th percentile outcome for Bullock.
11:02
[SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't account for the future value that would go with Bullock if you had that kind of growth trajectory, etc.
11:06
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, if you think about what's been rumored for the contract here, and would I pay that to get the 80th percentile season out of Bullock?
11:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably what?
11:16
[SPEAKER_01]: So just one way to think about it, I guess.
11:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you bring up an interesting point because you have of the four center options right now.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: You have three guys in their contract year and you have that's postsick and both the fourth year players go in and Pinter actually quit the Pinterest been a legal one with that.
11:31
[SPEAKER_00]: But they're both UFOs after all three of them are UFOs after the season and Bullock is not.
11:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Bullock you have for three years, which is why I have them up one notch.
11:40
[SPEAKER_00]: on the totem currently where I think he fits in.
11:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess we'll get to that a little bit later.
11:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Talking about some other things with posts, though, I had some problems with flags these last three seasons.
11:50
[SPEAKER_00]: It hasn't played all the snaps during that period, but he's still got 14 flags and three seasons, which is a little bit high.
11:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not super high.
11:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little bit high.
11:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And then those included incredibly 12 stall drives on 14 flags.
12:05
[SPEAKER_00]: That's hard to do, by the way.
12:07
[SPEAKER_00]: But he said some holding penalties.
12:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's seven holding penalties among those 14.
12:11
[SPEAKER_00]: He had an idea if I forget what else he's had.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he said not necessarily roughness or a personal foul of any sort.
12:16
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, a guy who's had some problems with penalties.
12:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Got it.
12:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm glad you had the the disaggregation of the penalties there or at least part of it because that's always a question with centers is to get the, you know, everyone moved in the center got penalty or flagged penalty, but seven holdings or a substantial number of those being clearly attributable to him is worth knowing.
12:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's it's certainly not good.
12:38
[SPEAKER_00]: There were some false starts in there, even as false starts for stalling drives.
12:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you think about this is where the quarterbacks are betraying him statistically a little bit, because it's a lot harder for Shudor Sanders to convert a first in 20 than it is for or Dorian Thompson Robinson, that is for Lamar Jackson.
12:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, you know, we've noticed that the Ravens have really gotten away without stall drives in terms of a lot of the penalties that they've had on the offensive.
13:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if you think back to that season opener against the chiefs, we're uh, yeah, Orlando Brett are not going to bring Ronnie Stanley was in the crosshairs.
13:10
[SPEAKER_01]: He had three illegal formations on the that drive, but they ended up with a touchdown.
13:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yeah, did not have the the stall drive against him for that.
13:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a really good example, but they definitely had a, had the crosshairs on him, no doubt about it.
13:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, I want to go back to the point that you made that you don't want to take the brown side of this or the raven side of this.
13:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think when you listen to what the browns say about postsick leaving.
13:40
[SPEAKER_00]: you'll get some of those to honest things.
13:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I honestly think you get very honest reactions from Brown's fans' period.
13:46
[SPEAKER_00]: They want to be optimistic about their team, but it doesn't mean they have to be pessimistic about a leading player.
13:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they were really concerned about the Ravens getting posted, because they thought, well, that really helps them.
13:57
[SPEAKER_00]: They had a crappy situation, and they just made it better.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, then I think that some people would be saying that,
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Basically, it's a lot of people saying we love that the fact we should be happy that a veteran below the line center is there in the middle of the Raven's offensive line to guard against Mason Graham, kind of thing.
14:18
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what they're really saying.
14:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think a lot of ways Raven's fans are pretty freaking happy in the same way when Patrick Queen became those dealers in a little bit of a linebacker.
14:28
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's just, that's a, that's a fish out of water there, and you have an asset like Derek Henry, you know, is going to be running over him on a regular basis.
14:36
[SPEAKER_00]: You're happy about that situation being what it is.
14:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I will just say though that the two fan bases are proximate to the situation in two different ways.
14:46
[SPEAKER_01]: The Browns are proximate to post a care, and they know his faults.
14:52
[SPEAKER_01]: The Ravens are looking, Ravens are looking this and saying, well, the back of option is pinter or public or Gwen, and so I like it for that reason.
15:00
[SPEAKER_01]: But no, your point is well taken about the Browns of all the fan bases, I think you're right, that they can be a little sober about the players they're losing
15:10
[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to believe it's been 43 years since this happened, but the Orioles in 1983 were in a terrible situation that's not dissimilar in terms of having absolutely nobody to play third base.
15:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And they were midseason and they acquired a guy named Todd Cruz who some people probably remember who their my age.
15:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure they remember him.
15:30
[SPEAKER_00]: He had two three run homers in his first game with the Orioles.
15:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It was the first weekend with the Orioles anyway.
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: uh, against the tigers.
15:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not saying he had a great second half or anything, but what he was was a guy who could play some pretty good defense.
15:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a former shortstop.
15:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And he, he, he brought him up from the very bottom of the ocean until they were only 10 feet under water, say at that position.
15:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And, uh, and it was a, it was a, it was a good addition for that.
15:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, if, if we're looking at postsick from that respect, that's certainly, uh, you know, it would be a viable look at it.
15:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I, I don't, I don't think he's a guy who's going to turn it
16:04
[SPEAKER_00]: a form of three or four years ago this season, but I think he could, he probably could help the Ravens, and I think he, you know, as a good chance to turn in a, you know, slightly below the league average kind of performance for them.
16:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know what, I would sign up for that.
16:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not that we can't take it.
16:23
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, they're now eight players.
16:25
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the eighth player on the team now, who is in your 10 plus.
16:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's five on defense.
16:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about them added for the item not gonna do it again, but there's three on offense now with Stanley, him, and
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Henry, so there's there's there's and then there's three other guys in your nine who are among the most significant players on the team in Lamar Jackson Mark Andrews from the Red Cross Smith, so this is a very old football team with Ravens have not been in this position before.
16:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Not since the very early days, they did come to Baltimore in 1996 or the very old team, but they really have not been an old team generally speaking at any time during their glory era.
17:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a little scary.
17:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this team's going to have to be turned over.
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Posek is a one-year solution to this problem.
17:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They probably go to the draft next year, would be my feeling about it.
17:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess in a, if we were to do an expectation series for Posek, right now, expectations to be kind of low, but the great season would probably have him signing for another year with the rapes.
17:23
[SPEAKER_01]: potentially, or maybe the best or the ultimate great season to Tim signing somewhere else in returning a topic, actually.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, that's that's great for the Ravens and and it would be great for him as well if he could if he could demand a contract to that sort because the center market is still kind of tight But it does it tells me the Ravens are probably going to be looking to the draft either way next year and I think you know we've given the fact that win and pinter are not guys who are taking it to be here long term.
17:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's it's probably going to be the case.
17:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's not a it's not a earthshattering move in this regard for the Ravens outlook and long term roster construction, but I do think
18:02
[SPEAKER_01]: This move actually marginally increases the probability that they take a
18:08
[SPEAKER_01]: center with a higher pick next year.
18:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a little conflicted way of saying that.
18:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But in a world where postsick wasn't here, and bullet potentially wins the job, he potentially has some crowd out to deking a center highly.
18:21
[SPEAKER_01]: This kind of depresses that likely outcome, it increases the chances that there's a mid-rounder a good high-round center kind of on the option set.
18:29
[SPEAKER_00]: That does very well said, and that's, I think you're exactly right in that, I would agree wholeheartedly.
18:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, let's talk about how he fits into this team, because this is an interesting roster construction problem that Ravens had already in terms of putting together the 25 on offense and we've talked about this a lot, but almost always the Ravens roster is constructed 25 25 and 3.
18:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's a reason why they would vary from that this year in fact, I think they have a lot of players on defense.
18:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're going to probably have to make some tougher cuts there if their depth really holds up.
19:02
[SPEAKER_00]: But 25 and 25 and 3 is what I'm expecting.
19:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Tough cuts for the defensive line are coming.
19:08
[SPEAKER_00]: There could be some tough cuts coming at edge, at East Isaac, for example, maybe a guy who won't be around anymore.
19:13
[SPEAKER_00]: There's definitely tough cuts coming at corner, where they're going to have to give up on some youth.
19:17
[SPEAKER_00]: They probably don't want to give up on.
19:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I don't see them giving up a roster spot is my point on defense to fuel a 26 to 24 split, I think it'll be 25, 25 and 3 again.
19:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Agreed, and one thing that's interesting along the margins as well, this is getting a little far field from the center discussion.
19:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Given the Ravens tight cap situation, the stashing a man in those ghost IR spots actually becomes slightly more difficult.
19:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you think about the corners when you're talking about difficult cuts?
19:52
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a position you always want to have healthy bodies to come back with.
19:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And that would be an ideal position when we have this long tail of young guys that we're trying to sort out that maybe one or two of those guys are the ghost IR players that you kind of keep around and see what you can do.
20:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But with the tight cap situation in this move actually probably puts a little more pressure on that actually.
20:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It becomes a little more fraught to have one or two additional players at the
20:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Assuming that's what you do it at, but over above, you're kind of baseline roster.
20:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I agree with you.
20:27
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're talking about the extra player you keep, then you shoot, there's some players.
20:31
[SPEAKER_00]: They have to pay anyway, and they could get a PUP arrangement with, and Matt a BK would be such a player.
20:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He might not be happy with it.
20:38
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ravens might not really want to do it, but the Ravens are, are, are
20:43
[SPEAKER_00]: stock paying that a BK this year they can cut them next year and say about 11 million, but if they if they decide they're going to keep them and and bring it back in mid season that is a potential roster reinforcement infrastructure that they can build now, which I hopefully you know the raises have been extremely sharp at doing that here after here with with having some players that they they'll bring back in mid season.
21:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not in favor of a season ending IR move.
21:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the Ravens also often have done the handshake agreements, so they've certainly got players this year on the roster.
21:14
[SPEAKER_00]: They could do that with, but the handshake agreements allow you basically then to keep a player after the Ryder, you know, this.
21:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But the roster cut down, but then immediately moved that guy to IR, where he's lost for the first four weeks of the season.
21:28
[SPEAKER_00]: There is some ability, I think, still to do that.
21:32
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not going to be the extra one million or 800,000 to a year one corner or a rookie corner that would be the loss there.
21:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the losing the player for a long term is a bigger loss even in terms of cap because those of the guys are going to be cheap next year when you really need the cap space.
21:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah fair enough.
21:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, but let's talk about this roster a little bit on the other terms of the offensive line.
21:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Now it looks like they've got four tackles effectively set and that includes Emery Jones is a backup, right guard, back up, right tackle and I think a six offensive lineman and then you've got Vincent and Stanley and Rosengarten, who are obviously assuming everything holds up.
22:12
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no injuries.
22:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Those four guys are all on the team.
22:16
[SPEAKER_00]: We agree on, we have that nice.
22:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, no, not sure if you see on the tackle group.
22:19
[SPEAKER_01]: That's pretty, pretty locked.
22:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And then internally, you'd have to think, if health is what they hope from postsick, postsick Simpson and Yuanay are clearly all on the team, since they paid a lot of money to Yuanay's of first-round traffic, they're not going to.
22:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And postsick is actually the one who, if things didn't work out physically for him, could be gone before the season starts.
22:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But the three of them now, that gives you seven offensive linemen, nine spots are effectively guaranteed to the offensive line.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And a 10th,
22:48
[SPEAKER_00]: is something the Ravens have occasionally used, but that's that swing position.
22:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so there's only so many, you know, you talked about the 25 that'll make the team on offense.
22:59
[SPEAKER_01]: There's really only, so many positions that you have that pivot point to that flex on, you're ultimately making a trade.
23:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it your 10th offensive line, men?
23:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it the fourth running back?
23:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it your fourth tight end?
23:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it a third quarterback?
23:14
[SPEAKER_01]: a seventh wide receiver, like that's the decision you're making on that last spot for the 25, because you're almost assuredly going to go with, you know, five or six receivers, three tight ends, three running backs, the nine offensive line, you line them and you mention three tight ends in two quarterbacks, and so that gets you very few spots.
23:30
[SPEAKER_01]: But the delta to that 25 is pretty thin.
23:32
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're ultimately, it's not within the position group only, but also trading across positions there and how you think about that.
23:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So definitely some knock-on effects of does this affect Rishina Lee, does this affect some of the other players that might be at the back end of the offensive side of the ball?
23:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely.
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So we've been talking about this on the center group, but I think there might be the kind of underrated guy who's most impacted here is Andrew Voorhees.
24:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Because if you think about it, you mentioned the IOL group.
24:08
[SPEAKER_01]: He has, I know we've talked about it before on the show.
24:12
[SPEAKER_01]: He has that escalator contract for this season, which makes him more expensive to keep around, and the ravens can get out, get out of it before the season starts.
24:21
[SPEAKER_01]: whether by trade or by cut or by negotiating with him even, which might be his best path to staying on the roster actually as a result.
24:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And then one thing, you know, Bullock, if he's going to be a backup has some size to him as played guard before, postsick has actually played in some guard before, it's a size and shape position that you can get, you know, this does put further strain on four he's his roster spot.
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, okay, I mean, complete agreement and it's really looks to me like a five to make two situation on that interior, I'm sorry, on the on the it is all interior linemen on that, but on that offensive line group that you have five guys and it's Birkson that the seventh round draft pick, so he's got a lot of sand in the hourglass.
25:03
[SPEAKER_00]: War he still has two years of runway remaining, so it'd be kind of a shame if they were forced to give up on him.
25:10
[SPEAKER_00]: On the other hand, he's played very poorly through two seasons, so it's also very difficult to say, this is an obvious choice, and the escalator is making it that much more difficult.
25:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So negotiation for him might be a realistic answer.
25:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they have, of course, Bullock and Gwen, who was a fourth-year player, but he came as
25:31
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, as a, as a, he's led for its guy in a sense.
25:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's, it's unlikely that, um, led for just going to easily give up on him.
25:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll, we'll see how he fits into their plans.
25:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have to any painter who they gave some guaranteed money to.
25:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's, I think, painter is in a pretty good spot to be the backup center.
25:47
[SPEAKER_00]: But they might, they might decide to just eat some money on this.
25:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And, and just say, hey, you know, we knew this was coming up or they, maybe they knew at the time that they really did that, hey, they, they, they, they signed,
25:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Pinter to a whatever it was two and a half million dollar contract or something with some guaranteed money and so they said You know, we we might have to give this up if a federal alternative comes along and we want to keep a guy like Bullock who has three years left on his rookie deal because Pinter is a is a UFA at the end of the season
26:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's possible there is a little bit of thinking about that, almost like an insurance premium or insurance policy there, and who knows maybe they actually gave him a little bit more guaranteed money to get him to agree to this job as a result, knowing that that might happen.
26:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure there was some honest conversations with his agent about whether what their views for him were.
26:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you mentioned Gwen and Lentford probably not giving him up.
26:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't imagine that there's huge demand for when the services are on the league.
26:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he probably has the easiest path if we're looking across these guys to pretty seamlessly floating over to the practice squad.
26:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So I kind of think for multiple reasons, not just that, there's the league demand side, but also the relationship with Leather inside and him knowing he sort of has a home with him that I think makes that a pretty clear path.
27:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It's ultimately those other guys that I think the knockout dragout competition is gonna be in training camp.
27:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and they did keep a look eventually the elevated bullet.
27:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I forget if he made it right out of camp last year, but bullet cause a guy who there is poaching risk on giving his tenure in the league, Gwen has less, honestly, I'm not sure where he doesn't have less.
27:29
[SPEAKER_00]: to a Voorhees might be a guy.
27:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if I were Andrew Voorhees, I'd probably want to get a press start at this point, frankly.
27:35
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, it's, uh, off-call, off-call.
27:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Beardson, I have no idea what they think of him by the way right now.
27:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a seventh round draft pick.
27:45
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of these guys,
27:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And all of them effectively were brought in after Ledford came to Baltimore.
27:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So when was a Ledford choice?
27:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Pinter was a Ledford choice.
27:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think more of a scheme fit choice and everything.
27:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And it drafted Beardson when he was in the room.
28:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course we know how he reacted to the YNA pick.
28:03
[SPEAKER_00]: For example, you know, he saw the phone.
28:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's the most excited guy in the entire room.
28:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Cory Bullock is a holdover from a previous administration and so is Voorhees.
28:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So, to me, those are the two guys who, you know, they have a millstone to overcome in terms of making the roster.
28:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So, we'll see how that plays out.
28:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, there's probably only nine guys.
28:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think, you know, two of those five that we mentioned, Beardson, Vory's, Bullock, Win, and Pinter, make the team.
28:37
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, and we talked about...
28:40
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about the carry-on effect and very good point that if the ratings do keep a tenth offensive lineman because of this and that could well be this case that they're afraid of losing somebody, then they end up having to cut a player like Russian Ali.
28:56
[SPEAKER_00]: There might be another guy by the way, like Gwen.
28:58
[SPEAKER_00]: who has very limited value to other teams in the league and might be a guy who looks through to the practice squad as well.
29:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Ravens have made extensive use of the practice squad at running back these last couple of years to bring up you know guys for three games and we had collier and give some of the names I can't remember because you know we had a 28 or 30-year-old guy you'd played for the Browns for a few games.
29:24
[SPEAKER_00]: You know the guy talking about, I could see it on your face, but anyway, there's been other players they brought in for, you know, just a handful of games to come up and do that kick return duty and in 2024.
29:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, to Henry's first year with the Ravens, they didn't even have a carry from RB3 until week 15.
29:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that was sort of a wild situation.
29:50
[SPEAKER_00]: so.
29:51
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
29:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, looking forward to how this how this plays out in camp and I appreciate you joining me for this relatively brief episode on this Spencer.
29:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Anything else that we didn't hit on that you want to talk about here?
30:03
[SPEAKER_01]: No, there's be interesting to see what the contract comes in at if, you know, if we're
30:08
[SPEAKER_01]: pleasantly surprised that it's low with some incentives and we feel really good about it or if we're a little shocked of why did they give them that much money, but we'll see what comes through there.
30:18
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of an open item on the grading or the reaction here.
30:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's say the 3 million is the total value of the contract.
30:26
[SPEAKER_00]: What's more important to you?
30:27
[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that it would be, say, 50,000 versus 500,000 and guaranteed money, or the fact that it would be incentives getting him to 3 million from, say, 1.5 million at a base?
30:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the latter would be more important to me just because I think he's pretty locked onto the team.
30:49
[SPEAKER_01]: not to weasel out of this and say it depends, but you know, depending on what the, you know, he was cleared medically, but what the team's feeling about is his physical situation is, if this is more of a let's see what happens versus a, we really are penciling this guy and for the opening day starter, I think, and I have no inside information on this.
31:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's the second one in which case the incentives to take it up, you know, from the 1.5 to the 3 is more important in my mind.
31:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so yeah, I would agree with you and they give him some guaranteed money to pinch her already, which might be effectively going to waste if that happens, but they do, I think what it says about what they think about his health is so important of the ravens, I'd rather that he's 500,000 guaranteed money and you know, we we give that away, but there's the incentive side of us incentive side of it is the bailout option for the ravens on this, I'm
31:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, this is a, I want to be more excited than I actually am about this signing as the way I guess I would describe it.
31:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I wouldn't say I'm thrilled about it.
31:52
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it just alleviates some of my concern about the, you know, the deaths that certain holes could fall to.
31:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think it's, you know, he's not going to be an all-pro, he's not going to be a pro bull or he's not probably even going to be a top half the league center.
32:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
32:06
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, kind of avoiding that fall off the table at the position is what's making me, you know, feel good about this.
32:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't even say excited.
32:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was really quickly the only other thing I was going to say back to the question on the guaranteed money versus the incentives and total value piece.
32:23
[SPEAKER_01]: To be honest, like, one of the things I find funnier is when a team signs a player and the first thing fans are talking about is how easy it is to get out of the contract in your two.
32:32
[SPEAKER_01]: OK, that's the big selling point of this free agent.
32:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And you don't understand.
32:37
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only really a one-year deal that we can get out of a scape early.
32:40
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not a great selling point.
32:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So if I'm being honest with myself about how to think about this, I can't say that lack of guaranteed money is what I'm going to be having the table about.
32:52
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, well fair enough.
32:53
[SPEAKER_00]: How about we toss it out there with one last thing, which is a percentage chance that Posek Go through all four of them.
33:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Bullock win and pinter win the starting job.
33:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just going to write them down here and I'll let you start us off as I always do.
33:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I'm just writing mine down one second here.
33:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
33:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I get my Okay, I've got Posek at 80% to win the starting job I've got Pinter at 10 Pollock at 8, go in at 2
33:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, very close.
33:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I only did even five, five percent, but I'm at post-675, inter-15, and bullet could win five each.
33:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So, very, very similar.
33:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not even a whole lot to talk about.
33:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So, those boss and I, when we do these things, we come up with very, you know, vastly different numbers on at least one player for something, but this is a case, obviously, we're in lockstamp in terms of where these players are.
33:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Also, you're right on the bottom to say, you know, Bullock is probably a head of wind for that third spot because of the 10-year value that he pranks.
34:09
[SPEAKER_01]: This is one where I think it's easier for us to get a little closer.
34:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's pretty set based on the news, and maybe we're overreacting, I don't know, but that postsick is kind of the overwhelming favorite, and then it's just a distribution of the others, so that kind of helps our numbers come out closer.
34:21
[SPEAKER_01]: But nonetheless, I, yeah, I think we're lying on that one.
34:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure does.
34:26
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, Spencer, always a pleasure.
34:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for joining me.
34:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Tell folks where they can talk football with you online.
34:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you can find me on Twitter slash X.
34:34
[SPEAKER_01]: My handle is Spencer CP, always happy to talk Ravens, Orioles, more so lately than the past few weeks.
34:41
[SPEAKER_01]: They've been on quite a tear, but you can find me there and talk Baltimore sports.
34:46
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, are the folks out there?
34:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Please give, try and share this pod with some other people if you can.
34:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Always something I'm looking to do.
34:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It's spread the word of mouth.
34:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Incredibly loyal audience you are.
34:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're here, typically, the end of shows.
35:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I can see that with some of the analytics that I have and I appreciate you for it.
35:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you can find other people who might have an interest in this show, it always helps out the pod to a good degree.
35:10
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35:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Please use
35:12
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35:15
[SPEAKER_00]: That is our new email address.
35:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It'll be monitored every day.
35:17
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35:23
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35:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much again.
35:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Spencer, thanks for being on.
35:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.
35:32
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk to you next time on Filmstudy.