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Transcript

Felix Prehn - STOCK MARKET TODAY: Can You TRUST This Stock Market Rally? + Stock Market News 30 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Hello, all right, there we are.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Some lunatic unplugged my microphone.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I've absolutely no idea why, but it made the morning more interesting, didn't it at least for you?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Cat sabotage yes, seriously, it made me wonder about the other video I recorded earlier whether there was any sound on that too.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Anyway, very weird.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I blame the cats, of course.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Apologies for the slight tech issues here.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: My intention is to explain to you whether we can trust this market rally more than this microphone cable which is now across my desk.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: And overall, I'm a pretty optimistic guy, I'm pretty bullish.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I literally just spent the last 15 minutes or so going through my portfolio just moving stops up, which is what I do when the stocks go up.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: So I just kind of reduce the risk, right, or rather, I lock in more and more profits here.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So your cats are your, my court.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, something weird going on there Silent trading today.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's pretty weird.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I have no idea.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: How does that happen?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: How does that even happen?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: How does somebody unplug something?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: And not weird?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, stranger things have happened.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Anyway, let me walk you through the reasons why we may or may not want to trust this market.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: You still, guys, still can't hear it.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Seriously, can you?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Sounds okay.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: You can hear me now.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Right, it's just people tuning in late.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Tell me if you can hear me.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Guys, put a.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat if you can hear me, you can hear.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, appreciate, it's just people tuning in late.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Tell me if you can hear me.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Guys, put a one in the chat if you can hear me, we can hear.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, I appreciate that.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I think, as people are joining late, their comments show up still on time.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So this is from your commander-in-chief, donald J Trump.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: He says, for all the cost-cutting Republicans of Republicans, of which I'm one, remember, you still have to get reelected.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Don't go too crazy.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: We will make it all up 10 times with growth more than ever before.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks for all the ones there, guys, thank you.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So what are we going to get?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We're going to get big tax cuts and then some sort of promise of big growth, and that should set the market on fire.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: You know animal spirits and all that sort of thing.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: So, in itself, this bill, whatever you think of it, whatever your politics are well, it basically prevents the biggest tax increase in the history of the US and it just hands loads and loads of money to people with money and loads and loads of money to the large companies investing in the US.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: So these are mostly companies that are listed and we can invest in them.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: So this is a good thing.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: The second thing is the Canadians are folded folded even, and I'm sorry if there are any Canadians on the chat here.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: It is true, you have given in on the digital services tax, which I absolutely loathe.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Digital services taxes are a horror show.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So for those of you guys who use trade vision possibly you're Canadians you won't have to pay digital service tax anymore.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Who knows, we'll find out if this is actually true.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: But yes, the Canadians have basically said all right, we're going to pull digital service tax so we can continue to negotiate, which, again, is very bullish because it means well, the market wants, the market wants less taxes and the market wants deals.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: This is very, very good, whereas Winston Winston has abandoned ship.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: He is about as loyal as a bowl of food and he has decided that his sort of nanny walked past and she looked at him and he said you're going to give me snacks, aren't you?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: And he stropped off and I was like what about me?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So, yes, I've been abandoned, sadly, but I do still have a lot of cats around here, but I've we just played with them to calm them down a little bit, so they're not running around so much.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Another reason to be bullish and you're starting to get the gist here that I'm actually pretty optimistic, right for the short term, and we've had 64 rate cuts so far this year.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: That's the most since 2020.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: It might put us on track for the biggest rate cut year globally.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: And it does one thing what do lower rates do?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Well, lower rates are, in essence, very, very good for the market.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: How does that happen?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Well, think about it.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Lower rates means what?
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Well, a bunch of things, actually.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Lower interest rates, right, lower interest, stating the obvious, on bonds.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So what does the money that is in bonds therefore do?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Well, that money, the bond money, wants to therefore go somewhere with higher returns, so that money tends to go to the stock market, so to stocks.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So that's a good thing, that little thing there.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Now, on a more fundamental level, you also have you get more investment.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Because it is cheaper to borrow, so you get more investment.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: So what happens when you invest?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: What happens if you are you know, microsoft you're buying a lot of chips.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Well, you're basically sending money to nvidia and maybe to dell and a bunch of other people who are making service and that kind of stuff and and equipment and cables and copper and warehousing and you know trucks and loads of stuff.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So loads of money again moves to other companies and therefore those companies now have more money.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So in in essence, actually more investment also brings more money into other stocks.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So that's again good.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So pretty much whatever happens when interest rates drop, it's good.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Now the third angle to this is and this is perhaps the most sort of esoteric is valuations increase.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Can we spell valuations?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: We shall try.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Valuations go up.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: It's got a lot to do with risk-adjusted returns and boring stuff, but essentially the riskier stock prices go up, which means well, stock prices go up and therefore everybody's happier.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: So if we get some rate cuts or just a promise of rate cuts and we are going to get a Fed president to be at some point, I think, and therefore the market's conversation will start moving around more rate cuts but even without the new Fed president, we will still going to get some rate cuts.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: 90% is the probability of a rate cut for September.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: That the market's good priced in right now, the first 20.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: This video has no sound.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, david, yes, somebody.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Somebody plugged my microphone out, which is, uh, something I'm gonna have to investigate.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Uh, the culture will be brought to justice, um, and all that sort of thing.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah, we get the big beautiful bill.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: And the big beautiful bill, what's it do?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Well, it keeps taxes low.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So it basically enshrines the Trump tax cuts from last time around.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: It gives huge tax breaks for investment in the US, basically, and what does that do?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Because we've done this before, we've been at this party before in 2018.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Well, it creates essentially a bonus for stocks like, basically, the MAX7.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So anybody who's spending a lot of money on cloud computing and, and you know, chip manufacturing and all that, they're going to get a big bonus.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So what's going to happen with that bonus?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: That bonus gets passed on to whom?
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: That usually gets paid out as buybacks.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: So buybacks is essentially a way of returning money to you and me shareholders shareholders.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: So this is very, very good for the market and you might hate the thing, whatever, politics and all that but it's good for the stock market, simply that it might be.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: You might hate it, you might love it.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Whatever, who cares?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: It's good for the stock market.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So my only job when I look at things in politics is to is this good for my portfolio, yes or no?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Which stocks is this good for my portfolio, yes or no?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Which stocks is it good for?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Which sectors is it therefore good for?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: And then we need to answer that question.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Then we need to find companies.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So we know this is good for the companies that invest the most.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: So who do we know is going to invest the most?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Well, let me give you a few names here.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: There is Meta, there is Google, there is Amazon, there is Microsoft, and there is Amazon, there is Microsoft.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: There is, arguably, well, the whole supply chain of, basically, nvidia.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: You know they're building, so I'm going to put NVIDIA essentially suppliers.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: And then how do you know which ones you buy?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Well, so you make this kind of pre-selection and then you actually look at the charts and then you simply apply TSMC yeah, that's sort of NVID.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: And then you simply apply TSMC yeah, that's sort of NVIDIA.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Suppliers up here, tsmc, for sure.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: So we then look at the actual charts and we go well, does this chart look like something I want?
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: And how do you know that?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Well you look at.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I was just looking at this one, for example, and this is one that I own, somewhat unhappily, so we're doing something about that, and that also happens, of course, from time to time.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: We don't just always buy pure winners, but TSM, for example, well, that looks pretty good, doesn't it?
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: All-time high, taken out, pretty much the all-time high here of January, so that looks like the sort of thing we might want to buy.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: And you need to understand a couple of key things here, like those ones.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: That one down here is a bit of a problem, but taking out the high is a good thing.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And once you understand those three or four things, you make better selections, you make better choices and therefore you're very, very likely to have better outcomes and, above all, you will also never have big losses again.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And if you want to understand that, then I'd encourage you to actually learn the rules to that, which are super simple to learn.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: They're down here felixfriendsorg slash, get free.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: You can learn that in like 15 minutes and you will never, ever look at a stock chart the same way.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Again.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: It's also on the screen.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash, get free.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't you only invest in what you understand you should only invest if you understand investing.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I care a lot less about the company and I care a lot more about how Wall Street sees the company.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: How do you know how Wall Street sees the company?
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Well, the stock chart tells you that if you understand what to look for.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: So we don't particularly care about whether tsm has the better equipment or whether, you know, amd's chips are better or faster or more power efficient or something I don't know, because I'm not a micro chip expert, a semiconductor expert I am not, so I didn't pretend to be so.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Therefore, it doesn't really matter all that much.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: What I'm seeing is that there is a very, very good setup here from many, many, many, many reasons.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: And then I see institutional money buying it and because I'm seeing that, I simply follow the trend and then the flow stops and say, the stock goes up a bit more and then it starts doing this and it starts doing that, well then I'm going to sell it here without a thought, because it's automated.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So I don't care at all about the business, the company.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I know it's inspiring, isn't it?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: It's sort of no belief system whatsoever, whatsoever in a company or its management.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: That's basically how we make money, learn.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: You want to learn that.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: You want to become a sort of a vacuous when it comes to uh, you know, belief in management then?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Uh, then then watch the watch the masterclass down below.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: And one other reason I I very much like this rule-based system is not just because I was taught it by guys who've been doing this for 20, 30, 40, 50 years in the market and that's how long waltz has been using these rules to make money from uh, but because predictions and forecasts and positive things that management says are not usually worth very much.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: At the moment, the stock market is basically predicting that interest rates will stay higher for longer.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Well, this is a chart from Deutsche Bank, probably the only useful thing they've ever produced.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I have a friend who works at Deutsche Bank, so a bit of a tease there in that direction.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: And the dotted line was the prediction at the time of where interest rates would go.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And you can see they were always wrong.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Right, they were always saying rates are going to go higher, rates are going to stay higher, and they are just always wrong.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: So predictions is just not really a game.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: We want to get into this whole like, oh, by the end of the year this will happen, or by 2027, this market will expand.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe not.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Why don't we just follow the money and actually make money in the process, and then if we're wrong, we don't care because we make money in the process?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: So I would not pay too much attention to the forecasting crowd, because they're typically wrong more often than they're right.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So here is Goldman Sachs predicting the market and everyone's taking notes.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Everyone's like, oh my god, I need to buy those stocks.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: And what are they saying?
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Well, they're just telling you what's the sentiment now, and that actually makes a lot of sense.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: So I look at that too.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: So what are they saying?
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: It's not like we are bullish on it.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: They're not saying Goldman Sachs, we glorious bank, we are better looking than everybody.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Therefore we know what stocks are going to go up.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: They're just saying at the moment, semiconductor sector is bullish, internet stocks are bullish, media is bullish, and they name you some ABGO, oracle, amazon, google, apple.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Actually, apple is down.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, apple.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure about Apple, to be honest.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: They're saying banks, yeah, and we are bullish on banks and we own a bunch of banks, payment processors, payment system, fintechs.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, they're bullish on Small biotech, they're bullish on.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Healthcare service, they're bullish on and they're simply just looking at the market.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: They're going where's the money flowing?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Retail restaurants, we're in some of those Machinery refiners in the energy sector, and if you just sort of take this approach to the market, then well, you're very unlikely to get really wrong footed and that's really why I, why I like this.