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Crypto ENDGAME Sooner than you Think · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Crypto's endgame is near.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: I'm going to give you two reasons why we are
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: getting close to a very different market. Let's just jump
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: right into it today. I do want to thank our sponsor,
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  Speaker 1: It does help us out. Let's get into it today.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: I want to kind of focus on a few things,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: and one of the things I want to get in
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: is where this market is in terms of the position.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: I don't mean like the price point, but sentiment in general.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Here was Brian Armstrong. He kind of hit on this
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: very point right here, and he says, I love the
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: idea for a Super Bowl ad as soon as the
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: team showed it to me unique just like the QR
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: code the ad they did in twenty two. A lot
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: of people were, you know, I would say, still buzzing
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: for that. And obviously you think about the exposure for
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. This is one of the biggest things
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: out there that ever that happens every year, and coinbase
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: would be right in the middle of it.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: A clip, take a look, all right, So I mean
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: all in fun. But I think the point is is
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: that the consumer sentiment right now is as low as
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: it has been in quite some time. And I think
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: the point that has been kind of elevated into the
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: market is that a lot of people, for whatever reason,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: whether you're in the ten ten liquidation event or you've
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: just been writing out the wave of digital assets and
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: not seeing Bitcoin return to its all time high, that's
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: the issue. And of course Coop kind of hits it
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: on the head right here. It's not that everybody hates
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Coinbase or the ad was terrible, it's that they hate crypto,
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: and Coinbase was their representative at that point for Super
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Bowl as far as I know, I think that was
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: the only ad that was crypto related there at the
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl, which that in its own right tells you something.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: If you look at general market where we are right now,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: guess what, guys, we are hovering right around the nine
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: when it comes to sentiment, And remember this dip down
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: to where were we a little bit around eight? You
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: go back in there, it hit five right there for
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: a minute, if I can hover right, yeah, there you go.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Five.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: That had happened just last week. Here we are almost
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: doubling that in just a few days. And of course
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin along with some of the other assets have started
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: to rebound, and I think this is something as we
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: see the market play into this.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Look at that trend.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Though, this trend right now has got a long way
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: to return. So a flaming bear market is absolutely in
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: the cards. And of course, does that mean that you
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: guys are ready to go all in? I think that's
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: the question everybody's asking. Is this the bottom? Is this
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: the time that I would get into whatever all coin
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: are into bitcoin or ethereum or XRP, whatever it might be.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: This is the question everybody is asking. And of course
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: one of the things in terms of catalysts that's coming
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: at the market right here, here's a line list from KOBEEC.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: We now have a US president with a one hundred
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: thousand price target on the Dow, crazy new FED chair
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: who is required to cut rates, and then two thousand
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: stimulus checks. I mean, we got a whole list here, guys,
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: right and this is all somewhat delicio in half of
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: this stuff I think will not happen. But the point
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: being is that there's a lot of catalysts that are
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: right there from actually occurring. And if that occurs, could
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: we see a market go Now. I know a lot
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: of people don't worry about Paul, that's just hopium. The
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: market's going to continue to get suffer. And I think
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: the other thing you have to consider, even though we
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: have seen a lot of volatility around metals and of
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: course risk assets, is where are security is going to
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: because we haven't necessarily seen a step back from that.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So be on the lookout, guys.
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: This is where it gets a little crazy.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So I want to jump over to a clip real quick.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: This is Muhammad from CNBC talks about the idea of volatility.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: So last week was technical, the week before was policy news.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: This week is going to be all about data this year,
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: as opposed to last year. I think the big three
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: themes that investors have to embrace is volatility, dispersion, and fragmentation.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: That is what's going to determine that success this year.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: Last year it was all about embracing secular themes. So
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: we're seeing a change in what is driving markets. So
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: my biggest worry on the macro is this decoupling andrew
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: of strong GDP from the labor market. I have a
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: piece coming out in the FT later this week that
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: says this is really consequential in terms of economic, social,
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: and political implication. It's not the first time we see it.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: We saw it in the nineteen nineties, we saw it
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: in two thousand, we saw it coming out of global
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: financial crisis. But this is the first time we see
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: it when the economy has been persistently strong. How worried
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: are we that job growth is decoupling from GDP growth?
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Okay, so two points he hit on there that I
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: think are important the decoupling component of job growth, because
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: this in itself starts to lean into the theory of
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: is the AI trade over. Are we in a position
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: right now where AI is going to start inflicting more
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: harm on the job and the labor market? Have we
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: just not necessarily seen it just yet? And of course
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: the play that he's talking about is the fact that
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: jobs are going to move away from the traditional markets.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is simple, if job
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: numbers continue to get better, which is where we kind
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: of are, and yet at the same time we start
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: to see a retracement in equities, this could get really
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: interesting in a very short period of time because remember,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: equities is one of the last things that would be hit.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Some of the things that could cause that to go one,
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: of course, is this right here. China has instructed banks
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: to begin selling and limiting purchases of US government bonds
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: and securities, and of course, this of course is around
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: the issue with US debt, as it is a huge
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: burden I think on a lot of these nations that
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: have been buying treasures for quite some time. If China
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: starts to retrace, and we know that Japan most likely
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: will do the same and then you're going to have
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: other trees almost doing the same thing, and all of
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: these countries starting to push heavily into gold in terms
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: of an alternative. This really puts a lot of pressure
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: on the US and it puts a lot of pressure
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: on the FED, and it's going to put pressure in
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: the sense of possibly printing, and this of course will
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: drive more activity around tier one assets right now, the
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: tier one that most likely would.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Be affected as gold.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: However, I think you're going to see risk assets start
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: to play into this, and remember Clarity acts starts to
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: define a lot more around stable coins, and stable coins
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: will become one of, if not the primary source for
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: US treasuries in the future. So I just wonder if
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Bescent is really thinking this out, because if we see
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: stable coin assets moving into a global market with little
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: or no yield opportunity, that could be a little bit
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: of a problem for the US dollar and US treasuries
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: in general and Bush investors maybe into gold.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Let me go into a quick clip.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Here, because this is Mark Cudmore who talks about that
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: this could get really bad.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: But I think this is another notch in the idea
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: that the world owns an awful lot of treasuries. The
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: US government is seriously indebted and is funded by the
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: rest of the world, and given the international policies of
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: the US administration right now, people are increasingly nervous about
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: those holdings. We had, you know, Danish pension fund talking.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: About reducing exposure completes go.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: This is another notch, and I think as we get
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: more of those notches, you get a game theory situation
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: where no one wants to be left holding the bag.
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: And so I think this is potentially a very big story.
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: I'm not expecting a bigger panic sudding today, but I
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: think it's a confirmation that we're going to continue to
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: see US eel yields drift higher because of that concern
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: that people have too much US treasury exposure. So I
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: think it's going to be a red herring stake inflationary
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: signal that we're going to play over the next week.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: And I think that's partially why I think this week's
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: going to be very tough for risk assets.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: Tough for risk assets, and definitely I think in the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: sense of where we will see metals and treasury or
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: excuse me, securities go that could be a good benefit
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: on the side step of where this market is right now,
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: especially if we start to see demand for treasuries starting
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: to drop. Another thing that happened, of course, is that
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: there is a new right wing PM prime minister over
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: in Japan. And now you probably have seen her. We've
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: talked about her a few times on the show.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: She's very Trump like.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: I won't say she's doing a lot of the same strategy,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: but she has a lot of those independent elements in
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: terms of governing, and she's an anti illegal immigration, she
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: wants to maintain Japanese core culture, and she's a chinahawk.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: That's the big one. I think that really for the region,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: we'll make for an interesting financial market as we go forward.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: I've got a clip here that will go into a
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: little bit more detail because what this could boil into
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: when you think about financial war, what assets have been
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: able to go through this like this in the past.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Take a look at this clip.
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: We can underwrite like the framework of investing as the
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: way we've known it, right, but that's like a peace
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: time bitcoin, and in that peace time bitcoin, it is
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: maybe talking about inflation and hedging inflation and all that stuff,
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: but the wartime Bitcoin is different that during moments of crisis,
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: monetary policy takes a back seat to the importance of
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: the actual power struggle that emerges. And so I think
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: the bet has always been that bitcoin will do well
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: when the world is a little bit more fragmented, when
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: there's a little bit more chaos and directionlessness. That is
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: the cost for a bitcoin to then be embraced, and
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: you just revisit that original mission of bitcoin. It's actually
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: not that. It's not about clarity act, you know, it's
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: not about some of these market structure things. I mean,
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: they're important from an industry building perspective, but at what cost.
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: And I'm very bullish bitcoin, but it's because I think
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: it's going to get a lot worse from the perspective
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: of centralization of the role of government, and bitcoin will
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: re emerge as the hedge, the ultimate head.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I necessarily agree with him on that,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: and the reason I'm getting at the sure bitcoin is
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: going to have these volatile swings both up and down,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: but I think now metals have proven to be the
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: true hedge. And if you look at where metals are
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: going in terms of nation states, essentially parking a lot
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: of the metals that I think starts to play a
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: trump card on Bitcoin in general. I know a lot
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: of bitcoiners out there will say, no, this is going
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: to be bitcoin digital asset.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: It will be.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: It will if we're talking digital assets, that will be
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: one of the key things. But when you look at
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: market clarity, I think this pushes the benefit to a
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: lot of the other assets that circle around market clarity
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: other than Bitcoin, So be on the lookout. I mean,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: this is going to involve ether, which will become and
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: everything a token. I think XRP is going to be
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: involved in that, just because of its ability for Ripple
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: to extend its financial care texture going across all of
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: this could be good as things get a little bit
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: more volatile going forward. Speaking of volatility or volatility, you
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: got to have to consider what the new fed is
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: going to do. Here, of course, is Kevin Walsh a
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: dove dressed as a hawk, And this is framed up
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: pretty much is that he is going to do everything
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: that Trump wants.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Him to do.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: Now, he has kind of been in this before, and
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: it's not necessarily been in a position. I'll show you
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: a chart here in a second. But one thing he
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: is walking into is this an absolute cliff falling off
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: right there? Of inflation which we were at its highest
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: at two point seven back on December thirteenth, Guys, that
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: is literally sixty days ago, and here we are hovering
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: at point sixty's eight under one percent. Bi Less reported
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: a two point seven percent here recently. I think this
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: is the real issue that the FED faces, and that
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: is possibly disinflation and a continued falling cliff. How they
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: play this out for FED raycuts is going to be
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: very very important for the market because I think maybe
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: the FED is too late. Again, what is warshunomics? Well,
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: if you take a look at this chart, this is
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: the point I was getting at Kevin's dubbish pivot. Since
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump won in twenty twenty four, staggering twenty year career,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: he's pretty much always been a hawk until now. But
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: if you look at his unwhining of Q and e QE,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Worsh of course has remained remarkably consistent. If you look
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: at where he has played the market, he is definitely
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: tied into a political position, and I think maybe this
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: is just another extension of Worsh that is and appears
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: to be a hawk, but in reality he is a
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: dove in the market, and of course right now I
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: don't think it will be a matter of that he's
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: dub I think he's going to be forced into it. Here,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: of course is Treasury Secretary Scott Besson talking about this.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Who's pushing for Kevin Walsh and his nomination to happen
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: and proceed quickly. This of course could be very good
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: for timing as we go into summer and possibly risk
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: assets getting a bump later this summer. I want to
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: go to a clip real quick, because this is going
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: to get into a little bit more detail on where
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Bessin thinks. Well, actually it's more of an alignment of
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: how Bessent could have a little bit of say, how
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: Warsh responds.
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: Take a look the FED balance sheet and profitability is
• 14:24
  Speaker 6: ultimately consolidated with the Treasury, and so ultimately the stock
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: of Treasury's outstanding is going to reflect the issuance that
• 14:32
  Speaker 6: Scott Bessen overseas and the Fed's programs of quantitative easing.
• 14:37
  Speaker 6: And I think it is appropriate to have a discussion
• 14:40
  Speaker 6: with the FED and the Treasury over time about the
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: way to balance off the objectives of the securities outstanding.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: They're not going to change over night. And the Treasure
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Sectory made that cleanse interview over the weekend. He said,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect them to do anything quickly on the
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: balance sheet, So what kind of timeline are we actually
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: looking at.
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: The FED has made the decision, which could be changed,
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: that it does not want to sell any securities, and
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: so when the FED is shrinking its balance sheet through
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: so called QT, it's not selling anything. It's just letting
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: existing securities roll off. Other central banks do sell assets.
• 15:14
  Speaker 6: The Bank of England regularly sells guilts into the guilt market.
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: The FED itself has talked about selling mortgage backed securities,
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: and so these are all ideas that have sort of
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: been in the conversation at the FED for a while.
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: But it's not going to happen overnight.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: All right, So not overnight.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: I think that it might actually get a more accelerated tone.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: And this again comes back from the fact that we
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: have so much treasury pressure from Nation States selling, and
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: you have the issue of falling inflation and a softening
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: All the things are aligned here for him to actually
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: come in and start cutting, and that may be what
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: it may look like. He's not going to do a fastpit.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: In reality, if he just gives one cut or two,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: he's already done something to Paler has not done, so
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: this is a big deal. Anthony Pampoliano kind of piles
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: on and says, the market is telling the Fed cut rates.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Trueflation is saying cut race, the President's saying cut race,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: and now the next Fed and Treasury sect are also
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: saying cut rates. I don't know, what do you think
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: is going to happen? Yeah, I'm kind of on Anthony's
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: side on this one. I think the rates are coming in.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: One note here is embarrassing, calling the bitcoin's position right now,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: especially on the latest sell off, its weakest BAAR case.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Yet, a couple of.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Points in the article that are here that I think
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: are important. One is this distinction matters based on the drawdowns.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: If you look at in the past, we've seen a
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: lot of cascading events that have.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Occurred to cause that.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: And of course he still thinks we're set up for
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: a strong twenty twenty six. If you think that we
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: are in a position right now where bitcoin comes off
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: the floor and starts a run back to one hundred k,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: let me know in the comments. I'd love to see
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: and hear how many of you think that we are
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: on our way back to one hundred k or if
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: you think we're going to go further down, just put
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: only up or further down in the comments. I'd love
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: to know what you guys think. One guy who thinks
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: we're going up is of course Tom Lee. I'll zoom
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: in on that. That's right, eighty two million worth of eth.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: He is lowering his average at least, and that is
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: something that of course the good investors always try to do.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: But he is definitely going all in on ethereum. And
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: if you look at this tweet right here, Ethereum suffered
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: a severe decline in the past few weeks. BM and
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: R of course doesn't care these declines. We're gonna buy
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: them eight out of eight. And he thinks there's going
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: to be.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: A v shape recovery.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: And it's set up kind of like twenty twenty six.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: Happens most of the time, not all the time, but
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: most of the time. Here's a clip that kind of
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: goes in a little bit more detail.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: Theium thinks raw down bit mine's going to be in
• 17:49
  Speaker 7: this draw down Scott bitmine has no leverage, It has
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: roughly four point three million Ethereum that earns three percent annually,
• 17:58
  Speaker 7: and we have six hundred million cash earning about four
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: percent in money markets, so the company is making about
• 18:04
  Speaker 7: a million dollars a day, so there is no risk.
• 18:07
  Speaker 7: I think crypto sentiment is rock bottom because it has
• 18:11
  Speaker 7: been a terrible drawdown. I mean just the past ten days,
• 18:15
  Speaker 7: Ethereum's down forty percent. Just in the last eight years,
• 18:19
  Speaker 7: Ethereum's had seven drawdowns.
• 18:21
  Speaker 8: Of sixty percent or more. The big news is seven
• 18:25
  Speaker 8: of seven o's were all V shaped recovery, so we
• 18:28
  Speaker 8: had a waterfall decline. If crypto's bottoming now, which it
• 18:32
  Speaker 8: kind of looks like it is, especially given micro strategies
• 18:35
  Speaker 8: twenty five percent move the recoveries are V shaped, so
• 18:38
  Speaker 8: we recover as quickly as we've fallen.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: The thing that he's getting at here is the scope
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: in which we have seen these drawdowns. And if you
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: think about the last I know this has happened very quickly,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: but the last bull run and then subsequent baarcase that
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: we started to see those happened similarly in the essence
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: of where we started to see a fall off. The
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: acceleration I think has been the thing that is most
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: consequential right now, and I think it still goes into
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: the fact that market clarity is still the driving force.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: We are looking at a new administration. All these things
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: are forcing these assets down. One thing though, for Ethereum
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: that I think is interesting. I don't know if it's
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: going to make a huge difference, but Tom Lee and
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: BM and R's move toward partnering with Jimmy over at
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: mister Beaese's kind of interesting. Here's the tweet world's biggest YouTuber,
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: mister Bee's acquired a banking app.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Step. Now.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: I want to make sure everybody knows Step was the app.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I would call this a banking app.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Step was the app that was the move to earn app.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Remember the step token. You guys probably saw this back
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: in the web three days. If you've been around our channel,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: go search that out so you kind of understand this now.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: One thing that it is that I think is good
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: for where mister Beast is going. It's a social driven
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: app that may be interesting, especially around finance, because we
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: have not seen that yet.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Now Robinhood kind.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Of gets close, but not necessarily a cigar in terms
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: of true social apps here of though, is Tom Lee
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: talking about mister Beasts for the acquisition of Step this
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: is a gen Z focused I would agree that it
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: is a gen Z focused component, and that is the
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: target audience. But gen Z are now entering adulthood. I
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: don't know if there's enough capital there to make a
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: big difference. I think you've got to win also in
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: the millennial and the gen X crowd, which I think
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: is where the capital sweet spot is going to be
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: for investing in the future. But he is definitely supporting
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: what Beast Industries is doing.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Who knows.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: I don't put anything past mister Beast because his reach
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: alone is a dominant one that will if, in fact
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: we get risk assets or something that's driven toward crypto,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: it'll make a difference.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Polymarket is looking at this and that is maybe another
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: government shutdown. In fact, it's almost seventy well seventy five
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: percent chance right now. It continues to move slightly, so
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: we're continuing to push into another government shutdown before February fourteenth.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: That's basically that's just a few days away.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Guys.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: If that happens doesn't have any effect on the market,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know. The point that I do think is
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: that we're going to see more slowdowns on clarity.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: That'll be the.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: One that we have to pay attention to. I want
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: to go over to this clip because this is where Mooch,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: you guys know him out there and Anthony Scaramuci. He
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: talks a little bit more about why clarity is so important.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 21:37
  Speaker 9: And so when you had the basement fears coming into
• 21:41
  Speaker 9: this year, you saw the rally in gold and silver.
• 21:44
  Speaker 9: That's because the older people have the money and they
• 21:47
  Speaker 9: believe in gold and silver, and they're still not quite
• 21:49
  Speaker 9: there with bitcoin. And so one of the real gate
• 21:52
  Speaker 9: keepers here is the Clarity Act. I think there's a
• 21:55
  Speaker 9: lot of fence hitters, institutions, commercial banks, and otherwise that
• 22:01
  Speaker 9: are really not going to move on bitcoin until they
• 22:03
  Speaker 9: get clarity from the US government. And so I think
• 22:06
  Speaker 9: it's a coin to us now. Whether or not that
• 22:08
  Speaker 9: gets approved, some of the Democratic senators I've spoken to
• 22:12
  Speaker 9: say that it will if you don't like this level
• 22:15
  Speaker 9: of volatility. This is an early adopt asset. Amazon went
• 22:19
  Speaker 9: down fifty percent eight times in its first fifteen years
• 22:23
  Speaker 9: of existence. That's sort of what bitcoin is doing. If
• 22:26
  Speaker 9: you don't like this volatility, you have to stay away
• 22:28
  Speaker 9: from this.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Asset volatility breeds future millionaires for you guys. If you've
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: been in an asset that had these big drawdowns and
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: you were in the opportunity to buy it at its lowest,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: you know what that means in most cases, even in
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: the short term, much less if you're holding an asset
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: more than five years. One thing though, to consider is
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: the regulatory alignment for an asset class that's being literally
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: birthed right in front of us, and rarely do we
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: get a chance to see this. The White House, though,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: is in the midst of doing this right now, and
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: they're set to now host their second meeting on the
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: stable coin yield issue. I don't know if this is
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: going to make much difference, but I want to zoom
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: in on this right here. Similar to last week's initial meeting,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: the second gathering will not include company CEOs again, so
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: we're not getting decision makers. But there are plans right
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: now that invitations have already gone out to some of
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: the major banks, including Bank of America, JP, Morgan Wells, Fargo, Ripple,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: and others are going to be there as well. And
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: it's not stated here, but we know that some of
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: the key industry players likelihood coin based Ripple and a
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: handful of others will be present. Now, who are they
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: going to send? That's the real question. Is this another
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: possible data check by the White House to understand where
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: the two sides are so they can find maybe some
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: grounds for a compromise. Maybe there will be good news
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: coming out of this. So we're going to be keeping
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: you guys up to date on that one as well.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: All Right, one other thing I want to hit, of course,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: is the fact that we have to get through one
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: of the biggest hurdles to get Clarity done, I think,
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: and that is this whole idea around insider trading. Now
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I know in started trading. You may say, well, that's
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: in the stock market. The stock market is massive compared
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: to a two trillion dollar crypto market.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Yes, it is.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: However, it is the sentiment and the perception that puts
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: so much pressure on Take a look at this clip.
• 24:25
  Speaker 10: The bipartisan efforts are encouraging, right that Republicans and Democrats
• 24:29
  Speaker 10: are at least starting to talk about these things. We
• 24:31
  Speaker 10: got the Genius Act, that Clarity Act went through the House,
• 24:35
  Speaker 10: so we're working on it. But it's when these hold
• 24:38
  Speaker 10: ups happen, in bluntly market manipulations that are happening that
• 24:42
  Speaker 10: I think give crypto a bad name. And so Democrats,
• 24:45
  Speaker 10: I think, stay away from it. One because of lack
• 24:47
  Speaker 10: of knowledge, too because of aging leadership. But three, I
• 24:51
  Speaker 10: hate to sound on a little conspiracy theory. I think
• 24:53
  Speaker 10: there's a group that does want it to be manipulated
• 24:56
  Speaker 10: so that they themselves can make money. And talked about
• 24:59
  Speaker 10: term limits. But another thing I want to do is
• 25:01
  Speaker 10: stop insider trading by congress members. I think if I'm
• 25:04
  Speaker 10: sitting in Congress, I should not be allowed to use
• 25:06
  Speaker 10: my inside information to bet on the market. And I
• 25:09
  Speaker 10: think when we stop all this corruption, when we actually
• 25:12
  Speaker 10: hold people to account, when we had next generations of leadership,
• 25:15
  Speaker 10: a lot of things will get better.
• 25:18
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Well, okay, first of all, I'm a big proponent of
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: stopping insider trading, of course, but the comparison of the
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: two markets are literally David and Goliath. You've got one
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: over here that is an absolute behemoth. A lot of
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: stockholders on assets like Cisco or Dell, or Microsoft or
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Apple or anything in the financial sector or the AI sector,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: all of those can be manipulated just by a congressperson
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: knowing a little bit more about where regulations are going
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: over versus a two trillion dollar market cap. Some of
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: these markets are worth more by a single stock than
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: the entire crypto market. So I would agree that has
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: to stop. Granted, I think it should be system wide.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: No one should be will trade crypto, no one should
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: be able to trade stocks. The key is is will
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: they give up both? I don't think they will. I
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: don't think that they're going to vote on that.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: How long will this take?
• 26:10
  Speaker 8: Though?
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: If you look at clarity and the possibility that it
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: gets through this year hopefully, what would the market look
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: like in say six months. Well, here's a clip from
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: bitwise that has an answer.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 26:24
  Speaker 11: In the last two months, the executive team at the
• 26:26
  Speaker 11: bank has gone from zero to five hundred miles an
• 26:29
  Speaker 11: hour on crypto. Banks don't go from zero to five
• 26:31
  Speaker 11: hundred miles an hour on anything. I've spoken with a
• 26:33
  Speaker 11: number of CEOs and presidents and a few chairmen of banks.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: It's all happening right now. Two thirds of all financial institutions.
• 26:41
  Speaker 11: Will be in crypto in the next six months. I
• 26:43
  Speaker 11: think that over half of all FinTechs and neobanks will
• 26:45
  Speaker 11: be in crypto. So I think that the whole thing
• 26:47
  Speaker 11: is getting wired up connected, and that's important for the
• 26:50
  Speaker 11: space because I think regardless of the specifics of what
• 26:53
  Speaker 11: people's aspirations are for crypto, I think the general aspiration
• 26:56
  Speaker 11: is that it gets adopted as a mainstream store value,
• 27:00
  Speaker 11: mainstream asset class, new set of rails, and that billions
• 27:03
  Speaker 11: of people use it.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: Okay, So I'm fully on with what Hunter has to
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: say there. Yes, I think the banks are going to
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: be able to get out there. I think the real
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: question will be the adoption at the retail and the
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: financial level. Even though you've got an instrument that's now
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: available in a bank, does a millennial millionaire or an
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: x gen X millionaire make the commitment that they would
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: to a stock or to gold or metals or energy.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, do they do the same thing for risk.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: I think that's going to take time. The key is
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: is that the banks are coming in that will add
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: some level of comfort, But I don't think that it's
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: going to give you that adoption curve that we're going
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: to see. I think it's still going to be early
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: for us to go forward and I also think that
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: the banks are going to go out with some crappy
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: products at first, and then we'll figure out better products
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: as they go forward. So this is out all the
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: lining up for you guys. We'll keep you up to
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: date this week. This is going to be a huge week,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: so don't miss it. If you like this video, hit
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: join our free private member group.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description.