Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Strange Selections | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/11/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Strange Selections | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/11/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: Hold on, not tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: let me pull you out. That fellow fights hard, but
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: he don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports for Friday, September 11th.
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah. I don't want to get political on this show.
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: I never do.
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: It's the 25th anniversary of it. It is the 25th
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: anniversary of it, I should say. I'm just out of
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: it this morning, man. Never forget the reality behind it,
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: let's say. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: Yes, that is correct. People were calling me Mr.
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: Thursday Night because I think I only got like two
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: spread calls wrong on Thursday night the entire season. And
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: the bets that I actually gave out on the Thursday
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: night games were 3-0, something like that.
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: That was an easy one yesterday. That was.
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that was an official Thursday night
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: game because it wasn't Amazon Prime.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: And it was in.
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: It was a Friday night... A Friday morning Australia game. But, yeah,
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: I mean, that was an easy win. I mean, I
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: was just fading the overhyped... Basically the most overhyped team
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: in the league. And... I thought that the strategy was
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: better for San Francisco. The body clock strategy. And I
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: think I was right about that.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: So.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the Rams, they never.
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: Scored again after they scored that touchdown to go up 7-3.
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: They were, yeah, like it was a wire-to-wire cover except
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: for San Francisco being exactly behind by four.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that is what it was.
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: I'm really out of it today. My mind is not working. But, yeah,
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: we have a lot.
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: Of baseball today, full baseball slate. I don't like this
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: baseball board at all. I have one play, and.
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: It's real ugly.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: And I'm going to do something I usually don't do
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: because there's a small college football slate here. I think
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: I found a really strong situational play, and it's not
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: one of the FBS-FBS games because there are two of
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: those tonight. So I'm going to give out a college
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: football game that's not FBS versus FBS. I think I'm
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: going to give out at least two of them over
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: the weekend. So this is going to be one of them. And,
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: of course, they can't go into my pick seven entry
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: because those are FBS-FBS only.
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: But I'm just trying to give out winning picks here.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: Baseball, we do have yet another Wrigley Field afternoon Friday game,
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: as is tradition. Pittsburgh and Chicago, the Cubs. Pittsburgh played yesterday,
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: but they're staying in the city of Chicago. So Pittsburgh
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: is at a rest disadvantage. They beat the White Sox.
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: They swept the White Sox with that win yesterday. The
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: Cubs are returning home from a road trip, though. And
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: you know I don't like teams returning home from road trips.
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: The Cubs were in Miami and then Milwaukee. But of
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: course it's a short trip back from Milwaukee. They did
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: get swept by Milwaukee though. But usually I like to
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: fade teams returning home from the road because they can
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: get distracted. They have to get back to home life.
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: So it's a negative spot for Chicago. But they do
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: have the rest advantage here. Pittsburgh easier travel but both
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: teams are kind of traveling. I mean Pittsburgh is not
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: traveling at all. Chicago is like barely traveling is what
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: I meant to say. So Take all that into account.
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: The problem is Chicago obviously has a starting pitching edge here.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, Pittsburgh is sort of going with like a
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: bullpen game here. They only used two guys out of
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh has Wilbur Dottel listed as their starter.
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: Although he's really young and I'm not sure if they're
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: going to try to like turn him into a starter
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: or not.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: He's only made.
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: Well, he's made several appearances this year, actually, but more
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: than several, actually.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: But I don't know. I mean, he's been not great.
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: His numbers are just mediocre. I don't even know how
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: much I really want to get into all these numbers here. But, yeah,
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: he's made no starts. So I believe this is going
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: to be a bullpen game here. He's got a good
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate, but he walks too many guys. That's basically
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: what you're going to get out of Dottel.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: But don't ask Dottel. How about that? That's your fantasy
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: team name.
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: I only remember Octavio Dottel, the relief pitcher.
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: He was a relief pitcher, I think, or was he
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: a starter? He might have been a starter, actually, or both.
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Whatever. Dottel, I mean, his numbers are mediocre.
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: He does have good numbers against the Cubs in a
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: very limited sample size. I just don't know how many
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: innings he's really going to be out there. So I
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: think basically bullpen game Pittsburgh here. Shota Imanaga is getting
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: the start for the Cubs.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: He has a 3.91 ERA, 1.12 WIP.
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit worse at home, 4.23 home ERA,
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: but I think some of that might be the Wrigley
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: wind effect, which if you look at what's going on
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: in this game, I don't really think there's going to
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: be one here because the total seems like it's pretty
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: much where it normally is at 8.5, where it would
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: normally be in a game like this. So I don't
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: think there's really a wind factor in this game. Imanaga
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: was good in his last start on the road, though,
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: against Miami. He struggled, though, in the previous month, ERA-wise
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: at least he did. He was very hittable. in August,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: but he still had good command numbers. Still has a
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: pretty low hit rate on the season. Doesn't really walk guys.
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: Does have a decent strikeout rate. He's still a pretty
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: good pitcher, man. 4.3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: That's pretty good.
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: 8.8 Ks per nine is around what you usually get
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: out of him. Imanaga against Pittsburgh. he's got good numbers here,
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: 69 at-bats, 101 average.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: Allowed, 267 OPS, those are really.
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: Good numbers, even Naga pretty much dominates them, 25 strikeouts,
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: 4 walks, only 1 extra base hit, a double from Triolo,
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: so yeah, the spot I think does favor Pittsburgh a
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: little bit, and Pittsburgh might even have a little bit
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: more motivation just to step up their game against a
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: team like Chicago because Pittsburgh's not going anywhere at this
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: point Chicago they're almost locked into a wild card spot
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: by now like they're not going to catch Milwaukee in
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: the division so it's just a matter of which wild
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: card spot is Chicago going to get but maybe they
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: are still going to play for that like try to
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: get home field against Philadelphia whatever the money is definitely
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: back in Pittsburgh here 91% of the tickets are 76%
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the Cubs. So Cubs are a
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: public side, less of the money on them. They're like
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: a minus 200 favorite, which I don't think you really
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: lay a price like that. Money also coming in on
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: the over 8.5 here. I don't have a whole lot
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: on this game. It seems to me like the Cubs
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: should still win this game, but it's a game where
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: the matchup is in conflict with the situation. The situation
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: says Pittsburgh. I think if you're going to play Pittsburgh,
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: you should only do it in the first five. But
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: it is going to be a bullpen game for them
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: almost entirely. So I don't even know if I love that.
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: But it seems to me like the Cubs should win
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: this game based on this matchup. Like the matchup does
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: favor them. But yeah, that's not a game I'm interested in.
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: Colorado at Detroit. Colorado played yesterday. They got killed by
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: the Yankees because what else is new? Of course, the
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: Yankees can get wins against bad teams while the Red
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: Sox can't do that as the Red Sox already lost
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: to Anaheim, and now they're going to lose to the
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: A's too.
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: Colorado used two relief pitchers yesterday. It doesn't really matter.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen's still worse.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: Detroit is staying at home and has a day off,
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: so kind of an advantage for Detroit here. staying at
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: home one day off. Colorado has to travel, and they
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: played yesterday. They're coming in from New York to Detroit here.
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: Oh, yeah, and I forgot to go over all the
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: rankings here. My mistake. Pittsburgh and Chicago, by the way.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is 19th in bullpen. The Cubs are 14th, and
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: in hitting, the Cubs are number one, and Pittsburgh is
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: number six.
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: As far as these two teams here, what game am
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: I even talking about?
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: I don't remember. Colorado and Detroit.
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, obviously, Colorado's the lesser bullpen, number 27.
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: This is arranged by WIP. Detroit is number 16. Hitting-wise,
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: Colorado is the better team.
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: They're fifth. Detroit is 21st.
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: But, I mean, Detroit's the better team in general, though.
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: Mason Adams looks like he's getting the start for Colorado.
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: I think he's made three starts so far, which is,
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: this has been his entire career so far, even though
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: he's not that young at 26. He's got a 3.95 ERA.
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: Not too bad, but a 1.61 whip is definitely not good.
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: He's been better on the road, which makes sense because
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: course field sucks for pitchers. Three road ERA, so he
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: is better on the road. His two road starts were decent,
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: except that he walked too many guys, and then he
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: got his walk number down.
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: And was not quite as good at home.
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: He got hit around by the Cardinals, although he still
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: didn't really allow that many runs there, but he's only
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: made it five innings once. He's given up too many hits.
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is not too bad, though.
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: Well, no, it is, actually. Never mind. Look, I keep thinking, oh,
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: single-digit walk number. That's not bad. No, it is. He's
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: walking one guy every two innings.
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: That's still not good, but his strikeout rate is pretty good,
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: which gives him a 2.8 strikeout walk ratio. 11.2 strikeup
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: per nine. He's going to be unfamiliar to the opponent here.
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: Detroit has not seen him before, so he does have
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: that advantage.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: Adams, I mean, given that he's been.
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: Decent on the road and he's going up against an
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: offense that's not playing well that is unfamiliar with him,
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: Adams might actually be able to pitch okay here. And
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: then Frambois Valdez is getting the start for Detroit. He
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: has not had the greatest season here. 4.17 ERA is
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: all right, but 1.36 whip, not very good. He is
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: a little bit worse at home, 4.33 home ERA, only
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: slightly worse though. He's been okay in his last few starts,
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: got his strikeout rate kind of going again the last
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: couple of starts, got his walk rate down a little bit,
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: didn't allow too many runs there. One was against the Dodgers,
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: that's a decent sign, quality start against them. And then
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: he shut out Cleveland for seven innings. We know Cleveland,
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: terrible offense, but still a good start from Valdez there.
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: Does have a hit rate that's too high this season.
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is also too high. His strikeout rate
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: has gone way down. He gets a lot of ground
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: ball outs. That's how he kind of gets away with
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: all of this. But his strikeout walk ratio is really bad.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: It hasn't been this bad since.
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: Really early in his career, 2.1%. There's something going on here.
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is way down. 6.8 strikeout per nine.
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: That's not good, although at least his last couple starts
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: were good. Against Colorado, he is generally good, though. They're
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: only one for 18 off him. The only hit is
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: a single from Moniak. They have six guys who have
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: faced him. It's a really small sample size, though. Eight strikeouts,
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: four walks. It's an 0.56 average, 283 OPS. I don't know, man.
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm thinking maybe like a Like a first
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: five under maybe in this game. This is not a
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: game I'd be interested in really whatsoever. A lot of
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: games like that today. I don't even, where is it?
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: Oh, here it is. Yeah, I mean, the money's kind
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: of coming in on the over. The full game totals eight,
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: basically 76% of tickets, 95% of the cash on the over. Again,
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: I think I would leave first five under here.
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: I think both pitchers might be able to do okay
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: in this matchup here for the first five.
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: You'd get like probably a four and a half on
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: that or something.
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: So I don't know. I mean, that would be my
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: thought on this game. Detroit's very public. Everybody kind of
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: knows Detroit. Oh, they're still fighting for a wild card spot,
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: although I don't think that's going to happen at this point.
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: 88% of tickets, 58% of the cash on Detroit. So
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: the money is fading them. They're around a minus 180
• 13:16
  Speaker 5: favorite here. I think the situation, even though Colorado's at
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: a rest, well, here's the thing. Colorado's at a rest disadvantage.
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: That's not good. But Detroit is also possibly in a
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: hangover spot coming off a big divisional series against Minnesota.
• 13:30
  Speaker 5: So it's like, which way does this go? Like Detroit,
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: possible hangover, but Colorado rest disadvantage. So yeah, it's not
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: a game that I want anything to do with. Anaheim
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: and Washington. Washington is returning home from a road trip,
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: and you know I don't like that. It was a
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: bad road trip. They lost all six games in L.A.
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: and San Diego. They're on a seven-game losing streak. But
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: I think the thought would be that, oh, well, Anaheim's
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: a crap team, which is true. Washington, even though they've
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: completely fallen off a cliff here, they have a good offense,
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: and they should bounce back now that they're at home.
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: That would be, I think, the way that the public
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: thinks about this. That's not the way that I think
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: about it. I think you're returning home from a road trip.
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: You're a dead team. You're playing a team that you
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: don't really care about playing.
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: That's bad. I think it's a negative spot.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: I think it's a bad focus spot, like a lack
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: of focus spot for Washington here. They've got to get
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: back to home life. They're having to travel back across
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: the country.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: Although it is easier to go east than west.
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: But, yeah, it's not a good spot for Washington in
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: the return home here. Anaheim is staying on the east coast.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: They're coming in from beating Boston twice today. They had
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: yesterday off. Both teams had yesterday off, so there's no
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: rest edge for.
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: One team over the other here.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: Anaheim might be in a letdown spot, though, off of
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: those games yesterday, or those games two days ago and
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: three days ago. I mean, off of upsetting the Red
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: Sox twice. Bullpen-wise, neither bullpen is good. Anaheim's number 23,
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: Washington 26th. So I'd consider just avoiding or fading the
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: bullpens here. Washington is the better offense.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: They're number three.
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: Anaheim is number 29. They're actually tied in last place
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: right now with Seattle. So a lot of bad offense
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: in that one division. Yusei Kikuchi is getting the start
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: for Anaheim because he's been back for a couple starts now.
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: He's been not great. 4.96 ERA, 1.47 WIP, but he
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: hasn't made that many starts this year. He's typically bad
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: on the road, and that's been the case this year, too. 6.1
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: road ERA, not good. However, since he came back from injury,
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: he hadn't pitched since April. He came back in late August.
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: He's made three starts, and the last two of them
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: were pretty good. One of them at home, one on
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: the road. So, yeah, he shut out Pittsburgh on the
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: road for six innings, which is not easy to do.
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: So he is in good form right now. His command
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: numbers have been good over those few starts. He's been
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: a little bit too hittable, but other than that, he's
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: pitched pretty well here. Too many walks in the last outing, too, though.
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: Over the course of the season, his hit rate is
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: too high, though. His walk rate's too high. Strikeout rate
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: is pretty good at one per inning. So he's got
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: a 2.6 strikeout walk ratio, which isn't as good as
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: what he used to post.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: It's not great.
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: Nine strikeout per nine is not bad, but it's also
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: small sample size.
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: Kikuchi against.
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: I always forget what team I'm even talking about.
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: Washington.
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: My mind just does not work correctly. Washington has three
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: hitters who have faced them. I would not put much
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: weight into this. They're three for eight off, and one
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: extra base hit, a double from Jacob Young. They have a.
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: 375 average, obviously,. 875 OPS. No strikeouts, no walks against Kikuchi.
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: He's in good form, but he's not good on the road,
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: so I guess it's possible he's fadable here, but his
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: last road start was good. Cade Cavalli getting the start
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: for Washington. He is the better starter here. 3.12 ERA, 1.18 whip.
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: He's had a really good season. He's been really good recently,
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: and I told you even when his numbers didn't look good,
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: I told you he was actually good, and I think
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: I've been proven right about that. One thing you do
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: have to worry about is his innings count he's up
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: close to 160 now he's never done anything close to
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: that before so he might start fatiguing a little bit
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: he's got a four strikeout walk ratio on a 10.5
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: K per nine.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: That's all pretty good. He's been good recently, like I said.
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: Sub-2 ERA in the month of August with a lot
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: of strikeouts there. Was hard to hit, just slightly walk-heavy,
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: but still not too bad. Coming off another good start
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: against the Dodgers. The Washington lost that game. I think
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: I had an under that I gave out in that game,
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: and we lost that, but it was not Cavalli's fault.
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: He went six innings and allowed two runs, so he
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: was good in that one. He's got a pretty low
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: hit rate. His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: is definitely high. So, yeah, he's a good pitcher, I
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: would say. And he's facing a weak lineup here, Anaheim,
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: although Anaheim is hitting 400 often with an 800 OPS,
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: but it's only five at-bats, two batters have faced him,
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: and the only hits are both singles from Adam Frazier.
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: And they got one strikeout and no walks against him.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: So it's a really small sample size here, too. I
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: wouldn't take much away from that either. I think it's
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: another situation.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: Where the situation.
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: Favors one team, which would be Anaheim, because Washington's in
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: a bad spot here in the return home spot, but
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: the pitching matchup clearly favors Washington, at least with the
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: starting pitching.
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: So it's like, which one of those do you go with?
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: Washington's very public, 78% of tickets and cash on them.
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: They're at minus 150-something on the money line.
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: I just don't see.
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: A really great reason to try to play Anaheim here,
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: other than good situation and Kikuchi has been all right recently.
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: I think if you.
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: Play either team here, I think I would avoid their bullpen, though.
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: I would make it first five, but I would rather
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: have Cavalli.
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: Than Kikuchi, to be honest.
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: So if you're going to play first five and focus
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: on the starters, I think I would rather be on
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: Washington and lay the half run there, but I don't
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: want to do that given the situation here. It's also
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: a really low total, given that Washington plays a lot
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: of high-scoring games at home.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: Seven and a half.
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: With Kikuchi being one of the starters, that total seems
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: very low to me. The money's coming in on the over,
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: but the oddsmakers, they're telling you something with that total.
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: Why would that total be that low? That would make
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: me not want to play the over because it just
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: looks way too easy to do that. Both pitchers could
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: pitch well here, so there might be an argument to
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: play the first five under there, but it's not a
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: game that I want to do anything with.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: We have the Subway Series in New York, New York.
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: Yankees-Mets, which I believe this is the second time they're
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: playing each other.
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: I think they played in.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: What is it? Citi Field, where the Mets played.
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: I think they played in the Mets stadium earlier this year,
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: and I think that was when our boy Clay Holmes
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: broke his leg during that series. The Yankees played yesterday,
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: but they had an easy win over the Rockies, and
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: they're staying.
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: At home. So I don't think that's really a big deal.
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: Uh, the Mets had yesterday off, as I mentioned yesterday,
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: the Mets do have a rest edge, but they're traveling
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: in from Miami and they are coming off sweeping Miami.
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: And they had that absolutely.
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: Insane 15 to 14 game, which I believe I did
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: have a lean towards the over in that game. It
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: was Robert stock unsolved mysteries against, uh, Jansen junk. Uh,
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: that was a bad, that was some bad pitching in
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: that game, man. Um, The bullpens, though, were shockingly bad
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: in that one, too. But the Mets are coming off
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: of that. I don't know if I love the Mets here, man,
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: even though they do always kind of take on the
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: role of the little brother against the Yankees. The Mets
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: usually step up their level of effort against the Yankees.
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: I think the Mets are not as bad as the
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: record makes them look. And the Mets have the better
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: starting pitcher on the mound here, I would say.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: And they're the underdog. And they have a rest advantage.
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: So I mentioned all that yesterday. So I do like
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: the Mets.
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: And... This was almost one that made the cut for me. Very,
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: very close to being a play for me. It's just that, well,
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: the Yankees did use a lot of relief pitchers yesterday too.
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: They used five guys out of the bullpen here. Not
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: really any of their better relievers though. Well, they did
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: use Hedrick actually. He's their setup guy. So they did
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: use him a little bit, but only eight pitches. So
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: it's not out of the question that he might pitch
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: again today. The Yankees are number three in bullpen whip. Actually,
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: they're number two, I would say, but they're number one
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: in ERA. Mets are number eight. Mets, decent bullpen there
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: as well, and given the rest advantage, the bullpens are
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: pretty close here. Yankees are the better offense. They're number 13,
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: so they're climbing up again, but it did help. They
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: just faced the Rockies, though. They're tied with the A's here,
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: but Judge is back, of course.
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: Let me see.
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: The Mets are number 24, tied with San Diego. Nolan
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: McClain getting the start for the Mets, though. You know
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: I like him. 3.06 ERA, 1.14 whip. He's been good.
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: He's been better on the road, too. 2.49 road ERA
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: with a very good 177 opponent batting average on the road.
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: That's good.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: There are some concerns here, though, even though he's allowed
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: very few runs. He's allowed two or fewer runs in
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: every one of his last five starts. His walk rate's
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: been high, though. He's been very hard to hit, but
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: his walk rate's been high. recently and that does concern
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: me a bit overall his hit rate is low but
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is the one concern here and his
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is pretty high but you got to worry
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: about the walks a little bit 2.8 strikeout walk ratio
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: given how high his strikeout.
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: Rate is 10.
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine he's got to stop walking guys man
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: so that's been his main issue here his numbers against
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: the Yankees they only have two guys who have faced
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: him Garcia and Ramos the two guys that the Yankees
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: got at the trade deadline pretty much, and they're 0
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: for 6 combined off him with two strikeouts, no walks.
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: So McClain has done well against those two, and he's
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: unfamiliar to the rest of the Yankees lineup. So I
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: think he does have a pitching edge here. I like
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: the unfamiliarity with a young pitcher like this. The other
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: thing that I don't like besides his walk rate, though,
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: is his innings pitch is pretty high at this point.
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: He's a young guy, so he might start running out
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: of steam a little bit with this innings pitch count here.
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: He is also from.
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: North Carolina, by the way. A lot of these pitchers
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: coming out of North Carolina here. But I still like
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: the Mets in this one, given that they have the
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: rest edge. And I think I would actually go full
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: game with it, probably, because their entire bullpen's rested, whereas
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: the Yankees' bullpen is not. But the Yankees did have
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: an easy win yesterday, so I don't know. Carlos Rodon
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: is pitching for the Yankees. If he had worse matchup
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: numbers against the Mets, I would probably give up a
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: play on the Mets. That was my other concern with this,
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: is that Rodon is pretty good. 3.09 ERA, 1.17 whip.
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: He's been good at home, 2.92 home ERA. Opponent batting
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: average is actually a little bit worse at home, but
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: it's still below 200, which is definitely good. He's not
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: going deep into his outings, though, but he did come
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: back from injury not too long ago, and it seems
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: like they're kind of slowly ramping his pitch count up.
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: to the point where he finally went five innings last
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: time out, and I believe we got an under correct
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: in that game, although Robbie Ray almost screwed us there,
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: but the bullpens saved our ass in that one with
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: San Diego, New York. That was part of the play, though,
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: that both bullpens were good. Radone has a really low
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: hit rate. His walk rate is definitely too high, though,
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: so he's another guy that has some pretty significant walk issues.
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: He does have a good strikeout rate, though. His strikeout
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: walk ratio is pretty bad, though, 2.1 So he's definitely
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: walking way too many guys. 9.8 Ks per nine is good.
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: And he hasn't pitched that much this year, though. His
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: numbers against the Mets, though, this is where I kind
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: of ran into a problem with wanting to back the Mets.
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: The Mets don't do well against him.
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: They have 127 at-bats against him, a 213 average, an
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: evil 666 OPS against him. The strikeout walk ratio is
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: not good, though, 29 to 15. Um....
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: Maybe an under, you know, makes some sense here.
• 25:26
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't love that the Yankees used up
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: a lot of their bullpen, but some of their better
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: relievers are still available. You're getting an eight on this
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: full game. 86% of tickets, 92% of the cash on
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: the over. I think an under is sort of, it's
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: worth consideration in this game, I would say. I would
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: be leaning under here, but I still do lean to
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: the Mets probably the most strongly here. And you're getting
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: them as a nice underdog price. The Yankees are minus 140, basically.
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: You pretty much know you're always paying a tax to
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: play the Yankees. 86% of the tickets are on the Yankees,
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: and I think 84% of the cash is what that was.
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: I hate it when this refreshes, it all scrolls back up,
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: but yeah. So the Yankees are a public side with
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: less of the money on them. I still think, yeah,
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: that is probably the best way to play this, is
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: to still just take.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: The Mets on the money line.
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: I think that's what I would do if I was
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: going to play that game, which is on ESPN Unlimited.
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: That almost made the cut for me, but believe me,
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: my one baseball play, it is a lot uglier than
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: that one even. Baltimore and Toronto, this is ugly. This
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: pitching matchup is pretty ugly. These two teams are fighting
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: to make the playoffs, though, because the AL is so bad.
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: These two teams are still in the wild card mix.
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: Toronto definitely is.
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: Toronto's returning home from a road trip, though, where they
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: went to KC and the A's, and they actually lost
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: the series to the A's. Now they're returning home. Actually,
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: they went to Cleveland as well. So they're returning home
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: from a long road trip and returning cross country. You know,
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: I'm going to say it again. I think it's a
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: bad spot.
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: Long road trip. You have to get back to home
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: life now.
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: I don't think Toronto is going to necessarily overlook Baltimore,
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: but Baltimore is behind them in the standings. So Baltimore
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: might have more reason to get up for this game.
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: Negative spot for Toronto. So the situation would have me
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: looking towards Baltimore here. Baltimore is coming up beating Cleveland
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: in their last game.
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: They could be in a letdown, though.
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: Both of these teams were off yesterday, by the way,
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: so there's no rest advantage one way or the other here.
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: Baltimore starting a road trip, though.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: I do like that.
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: I usually think starting a road trip is a focus spot,
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: but maybe you have to worry about a little bit
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: of a letdown because they did just beat Cleveland, but
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're going to overlook Toronto because it's
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: another wild card. It's a matchup that is... that has
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: wildcard implications again here.
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: It's another wildcard battle. So Baltimore can't really overlook Toronto here.
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: And Toronto is ahead of them in the standings. But
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: Baltimore has Chris Bassett on the mound, and that might
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: not be a good thing. 4.96 ERA, 1.58 whip is
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: not good. He spent a decent chunk of the season
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: in the minors. They brought him back up. I don't
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: think he's any good anymore, and he's been pretty bad
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: on the road for a couple of years now.
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: 6.43 road ERA this year. That's not good at all.
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: They brought him back up in August, and he pitched
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: well for a few starts. One of them, he pitched
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: against Baltimore, by the way, at some point.
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: Wait a minute. What am I?
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: Oh, no, he pitched against Toronto, excuse me, earlier in
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: the season, though. What I was thinking is that was
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: a game against his former team. He's pitching against them
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: again today, Toronto, and I was thinking, well, that's going
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: to motivate him a little bit, right, because Toronto let
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: him go, but he did already face Toronto today. in April,
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: or excuse me, May. So this is not the first
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: time that he's facing Toronto. So he really got up
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: for that game. I think he pitched pretty well in
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: that game against Toronto. He might not be able to
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: do the same thing this time. because it's not going
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: to be the first time he's facing them anymore. His
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: walk number has been really elevated in his last two
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: starts against the A's and the Red Sox, so that's
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: not a great sign. Bassett getting a little bit wild here.
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: Over the course of the season, he's been way too hittable.
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's not even really that good either, and
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate is low, so none of.
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are good.
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: 1.8 strikeout walk ratio is the worst that he's posted
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: in a long, long time. Hasn't posted that in one
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: of his prolonged seasons in his entire career.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: So that is not good.
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: 6.4 strikeouts per nine is really, really low, something he
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: hasn't done since really early in his career as well,
• 29:30
  Speaker 5: so he looks like he's pretty much on the verge
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: of retirement here. Not good, really not good. His numbers
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: against Toronto overall are not really that good either. 78
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: at bats, 269 average, 775 OPS, 12 to 5 strikeout
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: walk ratio. So even though Baltimore is in the better
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: situation here, I can't back Chris Bassett here, man. He's
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: bad on the road. He's got bad recency here. His
• 29:56
  Speaker 5: numbers against Toronto are not good either. Toronto's going with
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: Max Scherzer. I mean, he has not been good either.
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, you want to talk about guys on the
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: verge of retirement? This is a matchup between some really
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: old guys, man. I mean, their combined age is close
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: to 80 in this matchup. 6.03 ERA for Scherzer, 1.36 whip.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: At least that whip does.
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: Indicate his ERA should be a little bit lower than
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: it is, but still not good. He's been worse at home, too, 6.23
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: home area. Those opponent batting averages are actually better at home.
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: Scherzer has actually been kind of okay over his last
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: couple starts. He had one really good one against Seattle.
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: Walked too many guys against KC the start before that.
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: Most reasons to start face KC again on the road
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: this time, and he was actually okay in that start.
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: I think we lost on an over in that game,
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: if I'm not mistaken. Scherzer did better than I thought
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: he would there. even though he wasn't excellent. He's got
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: a decent hit rate here, I guess. His walk rate
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: is not great, though. His strikeout rate is also really low,
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: especially for a guy like him. He's got a 1.8
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio at this point. That is the worst
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: that he's ever had. I mean, again, he's got to
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: retire here, man. I'm sorry, but it's just the way
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: that it is. He also has his worst Ks per
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: nine ever, 6.9, so he doesn't really have it anymore.
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: Scherzer against Baltimore, good career.
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: Numbers, 48 at-bats, 229 average, 731 OPS, 16-5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: The thing is, a lot of these numbers were accumulated
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: when he was better than he is now, so I
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: don't really trust these numbers that much. I'm thinking maybe
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: you could play the over in this game. I mean,
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: it seems like it's kind of bad pitching to me
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: in this one. Both pitchers in the bad home road
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: split here. The thing I don't like about it is
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: the offenses aren't really that good, and Both teams have
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: a day off, and sometimes that will cool off the offense,
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: and it does mean that the bullpen's arrested here. 81%
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 94% of the cash on the over. The
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: total's at 8, 8.5, so it's a reasonable total, at least,
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: if you do want to do that. 68% of tickets,
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: 69% of the cash on the Blue Jays' side.
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: Somewhere in the minus 130s here. I don't know, man.
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, the situation says that you should fade Toronto.
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: I think if you take Baltimore, you should only take
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: them in the first five, though. But I don't trust
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: Bassett enough to even do that. But if you look
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: at the bullpens, Baltimore's number 11, Toronto's number 17, but
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: Toronto has the better ERA. by. 2, so I think
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: Toronto is actually the better bullpen. Both offenses are not
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: very good. Baltimore 20, Toronto 27. So this is a
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: series where maybe we're going to be looking at some unders,
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: but this is not a game where I would want
• 32:44
  Speaker 5: the under. Like I said, I lean over in that
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: game because the pitching is that bad, I think, but
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: it's not a game that I want anything to do with,
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: which is, again, the case with almost this whole board here.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Yes, thank you, sir.
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: Good start to the NFL, although, of course, I got
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: my first college football game right, and I haven't gotten
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: one right since then.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: We're going to get one right tonight, though. We can
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: do it, man. All right.
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: Next game is Houston-Tampa Bay. This is an interesting one.
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: Houston probably has more to play for here because they've
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: got to hang on to their division lead and or
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: get a wild card spot, whereas Tampa Bay... They got
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: to hang on because they don't want to, I mean,
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: it's true, they don't want to lose their AL East
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: lead here.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: Yankees are catching up to them, but.
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: Still, I think there's more motivation on the Houston side,
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: and this is not a good spot for Tampa Bay.
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: They're returning home from a road trip where they went
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: to Texas and Atlanta. They won both series, or no,
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: they split with the Rangers, excuse me, and then they
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: beat the Braves in that series.
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: They lost the last game. Both teams were off yesterday,
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: I believe.
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: No.
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah. No, my mistake. No, both teams played yesterday.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Sorry.
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, both teams played yesterday.
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: Yes. Houston is coming in from Philadelphia yesterday. Tampa Bay
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: returning home from a road trip. So and we're in
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: Atlanta yesterday. So I'm going to say it again. Team
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: returning home from the road. Not a good spot. Not
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: a good spot for Tampa Bay. Could be a distraction.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: You've got to get back to home life, whatever.
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: Of course, Tampa does have their best pitcher on the
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: mound today, but the matchup numbers are going.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: To counter that a little bit here.
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: Houston did play Philadelphia yesterday. They did win that series,
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: so that was a big game for them. They're having
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: to travel all the way down from Philly, so I
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: don't exactly love that spot for Houston either. Could be
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: a little bit of a letdown here, but I think
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: both teams do kind of need to focus on On
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: the series here, Tampa is more likely to be distracted
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: because they're.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: Returning home from the road here.
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: As far as the bullpens are concerned, I don't think
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: there was a ton of usage here. Houston used three
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: guys yesterday. Tampa Bay used three as well. But also remember,
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: it's September call-ups, so these bullpens do have extra arms
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: in them right now. Houston, I don't know what they're
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: doing with their starting pitching here, although I guess I've
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: got to look at.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: The rankings here first.
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: Houston's bullpen is number 13. Tampa's number 4. Houston's the
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: better ERA, though. I think both bullpens are mediocre. I
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: think Tampa Bay is overrated at four. Both offenses have
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: been pretty capable. Tampa Bay seven, Houston number 11. Houston's
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: going with Miguel Uyola. Is that how you pronounce this
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: guy's name?
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: Something like that. No idea who this guy is. He's young.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: He does have good numbers here.
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: They list him as a starting pitcher, but he's only
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: made relief appearances so far this year. He's only pitched
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: seven innings so far, but he's been good. He has
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: five hits allowed, three runs allowed, 10 strikeouts in one walk.
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: Those are good numbers.
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: Although he seems to be an extreme fly ball pitcher, though,
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: and he's already allowed two home runs.
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: That's not good.
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: But other than that, other than the game where he
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: allowed two home runs to the White Sox, he hasn't
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: allowed any runs outside of that one.
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: He might be good.
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: I have no idea who this guy is, and I
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: don't know if he's actually getting the start here or not.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: So that's the other.
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: Thing with some of these games. You got to like
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: pay attention to are these guys actually going to start?
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? So what I should have
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: said with the Cubs in Pittsburgh, I should have said
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: if you're.
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: Going to play that game, you should pick Emanogam a start,
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: but don't pick a starter for Pittsburgh because that is
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: definitely a bullpen game for Pittsburgh. So there's No way
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: of really knowing. No telling if Dottel is actually going
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: to be the starter there.
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: I would say the same thing here.
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: I would pick Rasmussen must start in this matchup, but
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: you have no idea if Uyola is going to start
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: this game or not for Houston.
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: Uyola. I can't say this name right, man. Whatever.
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: But he looks like he is actually good, and maybe
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: they're trying to turn him into a starter.
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: I'm not really sure.
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: He's going to have an unfamiliarity edge here for however
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: long he's out there because Tampa Bay hasn't seen him before,
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: so he might actually pitch well here for the duration
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: that he's out there, but it will be kind of
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: a Houston bullpen game here. Drew Rasmussen is getting the
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: start for Tampa.
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: He's been really good.
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: 2.88 ERA, a.
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: 91 whip.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit worse at home, but still pretty good. 3.22
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: home ERA. He's been good recently, too. His last three
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: starts have all been good. He's allowed two or fewer
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: runs than all of them. Tampa Bay has not lost
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: a start that he's made since he got pretty much
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: beat up by the Yankees on July 9th. And I
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: think we probably lost an under or something in that
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: game because Rasmussen has actually typically been good against the Yankees.
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: But that was the last time they lost a start
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: of his. So they have not lost a start of
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: his in two months. Tampa has not lost a game
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: that he started yet.
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: Is that good? I don't know.
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: They almost lost one to Toronto. That was his only
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: bad start, really, in that entire stretch. That's crazy. However,
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: Rasmussen's not good against Houston for whatever reason. They have
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: 75 at-bats against him, a. 307 average, 875 OPS, 8-4
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio. Houston has had the upper hand against
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: him for whatever reason, so it's not a particularly good
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: matchup for him.
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: And in fact.
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: His start before that Yankees start was a bad start,
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: and it was against Houston on the road. So Houston
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: seems like they have his number to some extent here,
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: although he has a really low hit rate, a really
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: low walk rate, and a high strikeout rate. All of
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: his numbers are really good. He's in the Cy Young
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: conversation this year. He's got a 5.8 strikeout walk ratio,
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: which is very good, and the highest that he's ever
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: posted as a starter by far. 9.2 strikeup for nine
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: is also very good.
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: He's having an excellent season. So that's the thing.
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: Do you really want to fade Rasmussen and try to
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: go with the Houston bullpen game? I mean, the situation
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: supports it, and the fact that Rasmussen is not good
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: against Houston, that all does support it if you really
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: want to play Houston here. And I considered doing it.
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: I probably agree.
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: If you're going to play this game, I think I
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: would actually play Houston here.
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: Uh, Tampa Bay, 86% of tickets, 88% of the cash
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: on them. I don't want the Yankees to win the
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: AL East, but I said they were going to like
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: way back when the Yankees were whatever, several games behind Tampa.
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: I still said the Yankees are going to win. That's
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: always been my opinion that the Yankees are going to
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: win this stupid division. I still think they will.
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: I think you could have bet on it at a
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: really good price way back then. You still might be
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: able to get a decent price on it. Tampa, 86%
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 88% of the cash on them. They're a
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: heavily public side, even though it looks like the money
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: is kind of coming in on them. Minus 170-something is
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: the price. You can grab Houston, man. Maybe you could
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: even do it full game, make a plus-one run line
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: out of this thing and hope that Houston's bullpen.
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: Kind of carries there. Or if you want to go
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: first five, you can do that too. But I don't
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: know if that really makes sense.
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know. It's a Houston bullpen game though,
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: so I don't know.
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in on the over slightly, over seven
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: and a half, but it's a low total and it
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: is a public over as well.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: So it looks like, I don't know.
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: The odds makers are kind of telling you that the
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: under is kind of the right way to play the
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: total in this game though, that low of a total.
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: So I don't know. It'll be interesting, man.
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: It's a game that I think there are too many
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: players factors in that game that kind of go against
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: each other for me to want to do anything with
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: it uh yes sir mr pinsey yeah goad is that
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: my name now uh goad is actually a word as
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: well i'm goading you into making these uh plays here
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: man but they need to be winning plays you know
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: um we have not been good recently we did get
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: that win yesterday though pretty easily Kansas City at Boston,
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: both these teams were off yesterday. The Red Sox are
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: staying at home off an ugly losing series to the
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: Angels where the Red Sox did not have their best
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: starting pitchers on the mound. In fact, the Red Sox
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: had their worst three starters, Bayo, Sandoval, and Bennett. Even
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: though Bennett's been good, he was not good in that one.
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: So the Red Sox do improve their starting pitching. coming
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: into this game here. The Red Sox better just fucking
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: win these games against Kansas City, man.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, come on.
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: You cannot lose these games at home to these bad
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: teams like that. The Red Sox should win this game,
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: but is it worth betting? I don't really think so.
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: Red Sox have the better bullpen. They're number one in
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: bullpen whip, number two in ERA, and Kansas City is
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: dead last in bullpen whip, and number two in ERA,
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: so we In WIP, we have the best bullpen versus
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: the worst. And in ERA, we have the second best
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: bullpen versus the second worst. So the Red Sox have
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: a clear bullpen advantage here. Red Sox are also the
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: better offense. Number nine, tied with Minnesota. Kansas City, good recently.
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: They're up to 15, but you know... From what I've
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: been telling you on this show, Kansas City is not
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: a good road offense. In fact, they score the fewest
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: runs on the road in all of baseball. They're pretty
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: good offensively at home, but not on the road. There's
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: like a one and a half run difference, I think,
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: there between home and away for Kansas City. I believe
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: Kansas City is a very bad road team. Yeah, they're
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: 20 games below 500 or 10 games below 500 if you.
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: Want to look at it that way.
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: However, the Red Sox, because they couldn't beat the fucking Angels,
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: they're back to.
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: 500 at home.
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: So the Red Sox are actually better on the road
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: than they are at home.
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: Oh, my God.
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: But Kansas City's really bad on the road. Kansas City
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: is going with Seth Lue going this one. He's been
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: not great. The advanced analytics guys hate this guy. 5.04 ERA, 1.44 whip,
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: not very good.
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: He's very bad on the road. 6.19 road ERA with a.
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: 312 opponent batting average. That's not good.
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: He pitched all right last time out against Toronto, and
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: I believe I gave out of Kansas City first five
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: play in that one. I'm pretty sure we took a
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: push on that one. He won us the game two
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: games prior to that also against Toronto. We got a
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: win with him in the first five there. He was
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: really bad against Cleveland in between those two, and... Basically,
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: I would say unless he's playing against Toronto, I don't
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: really think he's backable, to be honest.
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: He's bad on the.
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: Road, and he has good numbers specifically against Toronto, and
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: they're a really bad offense, so that's why I did that.
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: I don't want to back him in this one. His
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: hit rate is really high. He gives up a decent
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: amount of home runs. He's a fly ball pitcher. Not
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: exactly great for Fenway Park. Doesn't strike out a lot
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: of guys. Has too many walks. None of these numbers
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: are really good. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: That's not great.
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: 6.7 Ks per nine is one of the lowest he's
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: ever posted. He's getting up there in age, man. He's
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: not that good at this point, even though his last
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: start was okay. He only had one strikeout, though, against Toronto.
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the Red Sox are not horrible, but
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: they're pretty mediocre. 66 at bats, 273 average allowed is
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: kind of high. 712 OPS is below that 750.
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: Threshold that I look for, but it's not excellent.
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: 13 to 6 strikeout walk ratio is not very good either.
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: So the Red Sox.
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: You would think they should be able to get enough
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: going offensively here to win this game with Sonny Gray pitching.
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: Gray's been good, and they gave him rest prior to
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: his last start. So he came out fresh, and he
• 44:18
  Speaker 5: was really good in his last start. But we'll see
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: if he can continue to do that because the Red
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: Sox are trying to give him enough rest that he'll
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: actually be able to pitch well in the playoffs. Of course,
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox still need to make the playoffs. I mean,
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: for a while now, it's looked like the Red Sox
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: were almost just guaranteed to just wind up the second
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: round which it still kind of looks that way.
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: But they do have to keep winning enough games to
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: make sure that happens.
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: 2.69 ERA, 1.16 whip for Gray.
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: He's been good.
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: I think he's kind of in the Cy Young conversation
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: this year, especially because his win-loss record is really good.
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: And I think win-loss is bullshit because it takes into
• 44:56
  Speaker 5: account how much run support you get, but the Cy
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: Young voters take it into account.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: Gray is.
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: He's got a slightly worse ERA at home, 2.77, but
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: his opponent batting average is better at home, 220, so
• 45:09
  Speaker 5: he doesn't have extreme home road splits. They gave him
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: some rest between his last two starts, and he was
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: really good last time out against Baltimore, except the walk
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: number was a little bit high. But he also had
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: a good month of August before they gave him that rest.
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: except for one, although that was at home against a
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: weak San Francisco lineup, which isn't that great.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: He gave up a couple of home runs in that one, though.
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: Maybe got a little bit.
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: Unlucky there, but he's been pretty good over the last
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: month plus. He's got a pretty low hit rate here,
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: pretty low walk rate. Strikeout rate isn't really that good,
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: but he doesn't put that many guys on base. 3.4
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio. It's a lot lower than what he
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: did with St. Louis, but like I said, it seemed
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: like St. Louis kind of overused him, and it seems
• 45:55
  Speaker 5: like the Red Sox are giving him more rest when appropriate.
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: So even though that's resulted in him striking out fewer guys,
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: it seems like it's making his longevity better, it seems.
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: And his overall numbers have been better. He's got an 8.1
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine, which is still not really that bad.
• 46:15
  Speaker 5: Gray against Kansas City, they've seen a decent amount of
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: him because he was on Minnesota for a while. They
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: have 113 at-bats against him. Gray has had the upper
• 46:24
  Speaker 5: hand against them. He's been good against them. 195 average,
• 46:27
  Speaker 5: 539 OPS, 27 to 5 strikeout walk ratio. All those
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: numbers are definitely good. So I think Gray should have
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: the edge here. The Red Sox should have the edge here, man.
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: But you've got to pay minus 200 for this, and
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: the money's coming in against them. 92% of the tickets,
• 46:44
  Speaker 5: 87% of the cash on the Red Sox. so the
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: money's fading them. I would not want to back Kansas
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: City here, though. I mean, the Red Sox should be
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: in a bounce-back spot, and, you know, like, they have
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: the matchup edge here. They have the better pitching throughout
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: this game. If they don't win, there's something seriously wrong
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: with this team, man, and maybe that is what's going
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: to happen.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: I honestly have no idea.
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: The money's back in the under eight and a half here, too,
• 47:11
  Speaker 5: so it seems like the The money likes the under here.
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: I mean, I guess one option here is you could
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: take Kansas City to go under their team total.
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: Because Gray is good against them.
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox have a good bullpen and a rested bullpen,
• 47:24
  Speaker 5: although it looks like Slayton is not coming back. He
• 47:27
  Speaker 5: had a setback in his recovery, so Red Sox got
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: Whitlock back.
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: He's one of their best relievers, but Slayton, who I.
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: Believe is like They're best lefty in their bullpen besides Chapman.
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: It looks like he's not coming back, although Eric Miller
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: has kind of slid into that role after they traded
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: Meyer over to San Francisco to get him. Miller's been
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: pretty good for the Red Sox, so I don't know. Anyway,
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: and Miller seems to have the right attitude for the
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: Red Sox, let's say.
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: He gets pretty pumped up. Anyway. Yeah, I got not
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: much on this game, man.
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, to me, it seems like it should be
• 48:04
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox winning this game, but you just can't
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: pay the price for it. I mean, I guess it's
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: not out of the question to lay the minus one
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: and a half run line with them and hope that
• 48:13
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox just bounce back and win by multiple runs,
• 48:16
  Speaker 5: but I don't want to do that.
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I got not much on that one.
• 48:21
  Speaker 5: Maybe Kansas City under their team total, but if you're
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: looking at that, you're going to need them to score more.
• 48:27
  Speaker 5: Probably around three at most. The Red Sox pitching, you know,
• 48:31
  Speaker 5: it's good. Like, you know, they have the ability to
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: do it. And Kansas City is a very weak road offense.
• 48:38
  Speaker 5: But I don't know if I want to, man. I mean,
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: I know I don't want to. So it's another game
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: I'm passing on.
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: I apologize.
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: But the strongest one that I've talked about out of
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: any of these so far is I like the Mets
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: with the rest edge and with Nolan McClain. But I
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: don't think there's enough there that I really want to
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: do it.
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: All right. Dodgers and Miami.
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: It looks like the Dodgers are going to have Blake
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: Snell start, but then I looked, oh, it is Snell,
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: because I looked and they were undecided for a while,
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: but it looks like it is Snell at this point.
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: So this is Dodgers and Miami here. Miami is staying
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: at home, and both teams were off yesterday. Miami was
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: involved in that ridiculous 15-14 game against the Mets.
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: That was their last game.
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: They got swept by the mats they're staying at home
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: probably kind of a bounce back spot for miami here
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: if you look at the situation uh i mean they're
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: not going to just give up at this point i
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: don't think i mean they're they're not going to make
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: the playoffs but um They're technically not eliminated yet, and
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: they're playing the Dodgers. I mean, you're going to get
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: up when the Dodgers are coming to town. Dodgers are
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: having to travel cross-country for this, but they're on a
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: roll right now. They've won seven games in a row.
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: They had yesterday off, I'm pretty sure, and they're starting
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: a road trip, which usually is a focus spot when
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: you start a road trip, but they are having to
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: travel cross-country. However, I think it's easier to travel east
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: than west, like I always say, because it's like you're
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: playing an afternoon game on your biological clock, which is
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: easier to do.
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: Than playing a late night game.
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: Plus, the Dodgers pretty clearly have the pitching edge with
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: this game, as I'll talk about in a second. Dodgers
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: might not have the better bullpen though Miami's number 9
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: Dodgers are number 10 they both have an ERA right
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: around 4 so it's hard to say which bullpen is
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: better it seems like the Dodgers I would say is
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: slightly better just because they have the better ERA Dodgers
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: are the better offense they're number 2 although the Dodgers
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: are kind of just cruise control for a while but
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers have started hitting better again recently we know
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: that they're an elite level offense so I would not
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: really be concerned with the Dodgers offense too much here
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: They're turning it on again.
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: Miami number eight in offense.
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: This is a more pitcher friendly ballpark here though. Blake
• 50:46
  Speaker 5: Snell appears like he will be getting the start for
• 50:49
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers here. Hasn't pitched much this year because you
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: know what the Dodgers do. They have same thing as
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: last year. Snell and Glasnow just hurt for the whole
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: season because they're a little bit older. Now, oh yeah,
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: but they're not hurt anymore. They're ready to go for
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: the playoffs. You get them, you know, a month worth
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: of work, and they're fresh going into the playoffs. Snell
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: has been good, a 1.97 ERA, 1.09 whip. He's been
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: really good on the road, 1.64 road ERA. He struggled
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: in his one start that he had in May, and
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: then they shut him down. And he's been good since then.
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: He's allowed one or fewer runs in every start since
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: coming back. Somehow the Dodgers lost one of those starts
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: against Detroit, but other than that, they've won all of them.
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, we get it. He's good. He has
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: a low hit rate. We know what he is. He's
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: pretty unhittable. He walks too many guys.
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: That's always just been the one issue with him is
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: he's wild, but he also always strikes out a ton
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: of guys, and he is doing that again. He has
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio, though, because his walk rate
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: is always pretty enormous. He's got a 12.1 case per nine, though,
• 51:53
  Speaker 5: so his strikeout stuff is definitely there. Snell against Miami.
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: They only have one hitter who's faced him. Lopez is
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: one for three with a single against him. No strikeouts,
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: no walks. So Snell is unfamiliar to Miami. So that
• 52:09
  Speaker 5: should be an extra advantage to him that Miami hasn't
• 52:12
  Speaker 5: even seen him before. And we know that he's really good.
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: So Snell, you would assume he should pitch well here.
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: Ryan Gusto is getting the start from Miami. I mean,
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: he's obviously the way more questionable pitcher here. 4.23, that's
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: putting it mildly. 4.23 ERA, 1.41 whip is definitely not good.
• 52:30
  Speaker 5: Gusto is a little bit better at home. 4.05, is
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: that what it was? Yeah, 4.05 home ERA. Last start
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: at home, though, was against the Cubs. They're kind of
• 52:40
  Speaker 5: a comparable offense to the Dodgers, and the Cubs wrecked
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: him in that game last time out, so Probably not
• 52:47
  Speaker 5: a good sign. Gusto is not going particularly deep into
• 52:49
  Speaker 5: most of his starts. He was good in the month
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: of August. He wasn't allowing that many runs, but he
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: just wasn't going deep into games. He just was going
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: out there and keeping his team in the games pretty much,
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: which with a guy like him, that's kind of all
• 53:02
  Speaker 5: you really can ask for from him, but he does
• 53:04
  Speaker 5: have a high hit rate. His walk rate is just okay.
• 53:07
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is, I would say, just okay. 2.8
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is not too bad. So I guess
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is actually lower than it kind of appears. 7.7
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine is whatever. Mediocre stuff here from him.
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: Gusto against the Dodgers. They have 13 at-bats against him.
• 53:27
  Speaker 5: Five hitters have faced him. 308 average, 692 OPS. So
• 53:31
  Speaker 5: they've hit him for some average, but not really for power.
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: The one extra base hit is a double from Kyle Tucker.
• 53:36
  Speaker 5: One strikeout, no walks against him. Still, I mean, given
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: what the spot looks like, I mean, I don't know, man. Um,
• 53:46
  Speaker 5: the matchup clearly favors the Dodgers here, but you're having
• 53:49
  Speaker 5: to lay minus 200 for them. I don't think there's
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: a huge situational edge one way or the other here.
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: 92% of the tickets and cash on the Dodgers. They're
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: obviously a public side. You're having to pay a huge
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: price for them. I would not be willing to do
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: anything like that. The money's coming in on the under, uh,
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: pretty significantly actually on the under seven and a half year.
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: There's a reason why the total is that low. I mean,
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: it's a pitcher-friendly park.
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: I guess the expectation is that both starters might actually
• 54:15
  Speaker 5: do okay here, and the bullpens are both decent enough.
• 54:20
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to disagree with an under here. I mean,
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: I think the under does make more sense than the over.
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: Gusto is really the guy that you really have to
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: kind of question here in this game, and is.
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: He good enough to help keep this thing under?
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but both bullpens I think probably are.
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: And Snell, I think, certainly is. So we'll see what
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: happens in that game.
• 54:41
  Speaker 5: I got pretty much nothing on it, but the best
• 54:42
  Speaker 5: market read on that game is the under. To me,
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: it seems like the Dodgers should win that game based
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: on what that matchup is, but it's tricky and it's
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: a crazy price on it.
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: I don't know where Garrett is right now.
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: I think he said he has a job that's keeping
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: him away from the show now. Philadelphia at Atlanta. Pretty
• 55:01
  Speaker 5: big matchup here. Atlanta's only got a four-game lead over
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: Philly here. after they lost some games recently. Atlanta did
• 55:07
  Speaker 5: play yesterday, and they beat the Rays. Philly's also played yesterday.
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: So neither team has a rest edge here, although Atlanta
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: is staying at home. Philadelphia might be a little bit
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: more motivated here because they are four games back of
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: Atlanta here. These teams did also just play. Philadelphia, they
• 55:24
  Speaker 5: split the series in Philly two series ago. It was
• 55:28
  Speaker 5: a 2-2, four-game series. So there's no revenge angle here, really.
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: Like, both teams... are going to show up for this.
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: It's a big NL East matchup here, so motivation should
• 55:39
  Speaker 5: be strong for both teams. Philadelphia's starting a road trip
• 55:42
  Speaker 5: here after losing to the Astros yesterday and losing that series.
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: So Philly has to travel here, but possibly a little
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: bit more of a motivational spot for Philly here, maybe. Bullpen-wise,
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's got the better bullpen, although let me see what
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: the usage was. I don't think it's anything significant. Atlanta
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: used two guys yesterday. Philly also used two. Atlanta is
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: number two in bullpen whip at this point. Really number three, though,
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: because their ERA is a bit worse than that. They're
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: like the number three or number four bullpen, I would say.
• 56:14
  Speaker 5: Probably number three at this point because Milwaukee's kind of
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: taking a step back here. Yeah, Atlanta's a good bullpen.
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: Philly is not that good at 18th. I think they're
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: actually a little bit worse than that. So Atlanta's the
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: better bullpen here. Atlanta is also the better offense.
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: They're number 16 now, though, tied with Texas. They haven't
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: been as good recently. Philly.
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: is number 19, but Philly is now going to be
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: on the road where their offense is not quite as good.
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: Aaron Nola is getting the start for Philly. He doesn't
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: have great numbers on the season, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 whip,
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: but he's turned it around, man. He's been really good recently,
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: and he's also been a bit better on the road, 4.26
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: road ERA. So he might be able to pitch well here.
• 56:57
  Speaker 5: He's been good for a while. He's allowed two or
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: fewer earned runs in his last six starts, including doing
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: really well at home against Atlanta last time out. So Nola,
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: he's in really good form right now. Now, usually I
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: think the hitting has a bit of an advantage after
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: they just saw a pitcher, but Atlanta's seen a lot
• 57:14
  Speaker 5: of Nola in the past anyway, though. So I don't
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: think the fact that they just saw him is going
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: to help them that much. Nola has just turned it around, man.
• 57:21
  Speaker 5: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all of
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: his starts, going all the way back into late July. So, yeah,
• 57:25
  Speaker 5: he's completely turned this thing around coming back from injury.
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: A lot of people said he.
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: Was done, and I wasn't so sure about that. He
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: does still have a high hit rate on the season.
• 57:35
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is still not that great. He still
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: has a really bad home run rate, although his home
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: run rate has at least gone down a little bit
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: over the past month.
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is high.
• 57:48
  Speaker 5: He's got a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio, which isn't too bad,
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: especially considering it looks like his walk rate's pretty high. 9.4
• 57:56
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine is pretty good.
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Atlanta overall, though, even though.
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: He was good against them last time out, he has
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: not typically been good against them. They have 410 at-bats
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: against them. So, yeah, I told you Atlanta was very
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: familiar with him. 108 strikeouts, 32 walks. That ratio is mediocre.
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: 285 average, 873 OPS. Overall, Atlanta does have the upper
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: hand offensively against them, and Acuna in a huge sample
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: size does a lot of damage against them.
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: So does Austin Riley.
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: So if you're looking at player props, those two guys
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: seem to be the way to look here with those
• 58:36
  Speaker 5: huge sample sizes. And, of course, it's also not good
• 58:39
  Speaker 5: for Philadelphia because they have to go up against Chris
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: Sale in this game. Sale is the better of the
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: two pitchers, even though Nola has been good recently. Sale
• 58:48
  Speaker 5: has a 2.1 ERA, 1.01 whip. He's been really good
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: at home, almost untouchable at home, 1.45 home ERA, although
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: his opponent batting average is slightly above 200 here. Oh, no.
• 59:00
  Speaker 5: at home. He's been really dealing recently. He's allowed three
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: or fewer runs in every start going all.
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: The way back to April. he's only not done that
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: once on.
• 59:11
  Speaker 5: The entire season and it was way back in April
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: inexplicably against Anaheim he's got a really low hit rate
• 59:17
  Speaker 5: low walk rate as well high strikeout rate we get
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: it all these numbers are good he was good against
• 59:21
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia last time out as well 6.3 strikeout walk ratio
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: so even though he's 37 he's still pitching at an
• 59:29
  Speaker 5: elite level pretty much 11 Ks per 9 yeah that's
• 59:33
  Speaker 5: all good You know his numbers against Philly are also good.
• 59:37
  Speaker 5: I mean, I guess you can't assume that, but yes,
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: 154 at-bats, 50-6 strikeout walk ratio is insanely good.
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: Although Philly, they picked up Arias at the trade deadline.
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: He actually specifically has good numbers against Sale, but even
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: with him in there, they have a 221 average and
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: 601 OPS against him.
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: So it does look like Atlanta does have the edge
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: here in the pitching, which I guess is not surprising.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: Um... Money is fading them, though. 82% of tickets, 61%
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Atlanta. They're minus 190 favor. I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 5: think a lot of it has to do with the price.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: You pretty much know you're going to have to pay
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: extra if you want to back sale here. The total
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: is really low at seven. Money kind of coming in
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: towards the over. It could be an under, though. Given
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 5: that Nola's been pitching really well recently, sale is so
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 5: dominant that if he does the heavy lifting here, You
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: might be able to get.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: There with an under in this one.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 5: I don't really love Philly's bullpen, but maybe the pitchers
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: will get you deep enough into the game.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: The under seems like it's the right way to look
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: at this game. The total is seven, seven and a
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 5: half here. Not going to be a play for me.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: I don't like Nola's matchup numbers very much. Philly's bullpen
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 5: is untrustworthy to me, so I guess you could look
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: at a first five under as well, but you're going
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: to be looking at about a three.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: On that probably. So I don't love that.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: But if you think it's going to be a low-scoring,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 5: close game, that does mean you kind of want to
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: look towards the underdog. But Atlanta seems to have a
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 5: fairly big edge with the starting pitching here, so I
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: don't know.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: Maybe not. Maybe it'll be a pitching duel. Maybe it'll
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: be close.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 5: But it's not something I want to bank on. Cincinnati
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 5: and Milwaukee. This game's going to be on Apple TV.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: This is actually kind of a revenge series for Milwaukee
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: because two series ago they actually lost the series in Cincinnati.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 5: And I think part of it had to do with
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 5: they were looking ahead to the Cubs, and Milwaukee just
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: swept the Cubs. So now Milwaukee has a 10-game lead
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: in the NL Central, and I believe they have the
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 5: best record in baseball. But they still want to try
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 5: to hang on to this number one spot, I think,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 5: if they can, so that they get home field against LA. Although,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 5: like I said, Milwaukee, they actually play well in LA, surprisingly,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: over the recent years. Milwaukee could be in a letdown here, though,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 5: because the sweep of the Cubs is pretty big. They
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 5: sent the Cubs back to 10 games back. Big divisional series.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: Now they've got to play the Reds, even though, yes,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: they did just lose at the Reds. But are they
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: really going to have that much focus on the Reds here?
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 5: And the Reds may actually show up for this. Milwaukee
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 5: is staying at home. I believe both teams were off yesterday, yes.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati is coming in from L.A., so their travel is
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: a little bit crazy. They did just get swept in L.A.,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 5: but the travel spot, I think, helps the Brewers a
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: little bit because they're staying at home. Cincinnati having to
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 5: travel multiple time zones over here. But maybe Cincinnati does
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: get up for this one. And the pitching matchup, it's
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 5: not exactly good here. Cincinnati's bullpen is not very good, although,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 5: of course, they're rested. I don't know why I'm looking
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: at that. Milwaukee is the better bullpen.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: They're ranked 7th.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 5: I still think they're a top-five bullpen. Cincinnati is ranked 25th.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: They're not that good. Brewers are the better offense as well.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: They're number four. Cincinnati, number 23. So the Brewers do
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: have some pretty big edges here. Of course, they're going
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 5: to be a heavy favorite, though. Andrew Abbott is getting
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 5: the start for Cincinnati. He has not had a great
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 5: season here, worse than what he did the last couple
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 5: of seasons.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: 4.43 ERA, 1.42 WIP. I don't know.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: He's had an off season, man. He's been a little
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 5: bit better on the road ERA wise, 4.23 road ERA.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: Those opponent batting average is a little bit higher on
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 5: the road.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: He was okay in his.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 5: Last start against Milwaukee actually, but only went four innings there.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 5: But he pitched pretty well there. I don't know why
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 5: they cut it short after four innings. He's been kind
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 5: of limited his last couple outings. The one before that was,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: I thought, just because he got crushed by Chicago, the Cubs.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: They took him out.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 5: I don't know. But overall, Abbott has not really had
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 5: a great season here at all. His hit rate is okay,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 5: but his walk rate's way too high. He allows too
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: many home runs. His strikeout rate's not that good, so
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 5: none of that is really that good. He's never really
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 5: been a strikeout pitcher, but his strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 5: way worse this year than it ever has been, 1.7.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: Pretty concerning, and strikeout per nine also lower than what
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: he's posted in the past, 7.1. His numbers against Milwaukee, though,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 5: are actually good. Even though Milwaukee just saw him, he
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 5: might be able to pitch well against them again because
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: they have 123 at-bats against them, so I don't think
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 5: one additional start against them is going to really, you know,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 5: their hitting is not going to, like, really be helped
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: by seeing him one more time, I don't think.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: They have a.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 5: 236 average against them, a. 719 OPS, 33-8 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 5: So they have not really hit him for average at all.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 5: They do have some home runs often, though. But four
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: of the sticks come from Churrio and Contreras. So if
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 5: he can avoid those guys, he might be able to
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: pitch okay here. Dustin May is getting the start from Milwaukee.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: He is not their best starter. 4.690 ERA, 1.32 whip,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: not great. He's been better at home, though, 4.16 home ERA. However,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 5: a lot of that was with St.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 5: He spent most of the season with St. Louis, and
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: you know they have a pitcher-friendly ballpark there. He hasn't
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 5: really been that good with Milwaukee. His first two starts
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 5: were decent with them, but since then he's fallen way off.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 5: He hasn't gone deep into any of his starts since then.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 5: He's given up a lot of runs. given how few
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: innings he's pitched. Things are not going well for him.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 5: He pitched against Cincinnati last time out, and it was
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: a shortened start, and he wasn't really that good in
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 5: that start, even though his command numbers are all right there.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: I don't really think I want to trust May here, man.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 5: He's got a hit rate that's mediocre at best. His
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 5: walk rate isn't too bad, though, and his strikeout rate
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: is kind of mediocre, too. 2.8 strikeout walk ratio. I mean, 8.6
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine. Those numbers are okay, though. His numbers
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: against Cincinnati are not particularly good. 46 at-bats, 15-to-1 strikeout walk.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: Ratio is good.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: 283 average, 747 OPS is not really that good, though.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 5: That OPS is just below that 750 threshold. I think
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 5: I lead Cincinnati in this one. Milwaukee could be in
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 5: a bit of a letdown here. If Cincinnati's going to
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: get up for any remaining games they have this season,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 5: it's going to be a game like this, you know, against...
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 5: the division leader, where Cincinnati's at the bottom of the division.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 5: The money seems to strongly agree with this. Milwaukee's like
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: a minus 200 favorite. Do you really think Dustin May
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: is worthy of being favored like that?
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: I don't think so.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 5: 95% of the tickets are on Milwaukee. 52% of the
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: cash on Cincinnati. So money's coming in on Cincinnati. It's
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 5: a low total, surprisingly low. Seven and a half. I
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: don't really get that. 87% of the tickets, 89% of.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: The cash on the over. I think the over.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: Might be worth a look in this game, although I
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 5: don't love that when it's a low total like that.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: The odds are telling you that it's going to be
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: a low scoring game, but I don't see that. Neither
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: pitcher is that good, although Abbott does have the better
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers here.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: I think these pitchers are fadable in this one. That
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: would be my opinion.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: I think the over makes more sense than the under
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 5: in this game, but I still think maybe the better
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: way to do this is just take Cincinnati run line
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: in the first five, because I would not trust Cincinnati's bullpen,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 5: but Given the situation, and it seems like the matchup
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 5: numbers do favor Abbott in the starting pitching matchup. I
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: don't really want to do it. I don't really want
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 5: to back him. But, I mean, I think that is
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 5: the way to play this. Although, I don't know, man,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 5: because my one play is kind of similar to this one.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: I'm going to leave it alone. But, yeah, I mean,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: this one's in consideration for me. I like Cincinnati plus
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 5: the half run or whatever in the first five.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: I think that's the way to play this one.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: So the two plays that I like the best so
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: far are that and the Mets money line. But my
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: play has not been covered yet. It's one of these
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: later games here. And I think we have, it's a
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 5: little bit different because there's a rest edge in addition
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 5: to the other edges. So you might be able to
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 5: figure out what it is. And plus, I said it.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: Is very ugly.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: So if you look at these remaining games, I mean,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 5: it's probably the ugliest one remaining. All right, I'll be
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 5: right back, and then I'll talk about this, and then
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 5: I'm going to talk about college football. And give out
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: a college football play that is probably not what people expect. Although,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 5: if you know how I handicap, maybe you should expect it.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: But I'll be right back.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: Yep.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 5: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: 1-5.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: never seen anything like this.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: With the slump continuing. Two straight losses. Not a good
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: day at all.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 5: 0-4.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: Have not had a good season, man. With weekends.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Slumped.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: Then I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: Hat, man.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: March 8th, is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: It's March 9th.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 4: Who even knows, man? I don't know what day it
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: possibly have. Back with you as I always am. Until
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: I die, at least.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 5: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 5: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 5: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: you about this anymore.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: The slump continues.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all. Okay, next game
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: is Cleveland and Minnesota. Is that right? Yeah.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 5: Minnesota is returning home from a road trip, I'm pretty sure.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: Both teams were off yesterday, yes. Minnesota was just in
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 5: Chicago against the White Sox and then against the Tigers.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 5: But they kind of got to keep playing because Minnesota
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 5: is almost out.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: Of it here.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 5: And this is the fourth straight divisional series because they
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 5: played Detroit before.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: Actually, fifth.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: They play the White Sox and Detroit and then the
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 5: White Sox and then Detroit again. And now Cleveland, no
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 5: let up here in this Minnesota schedule here, man. Um,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 5: and I think it's a negative though, returning home from
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: the road. You know, I always say that even though
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: this is a big divisional series, they should not be
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 5: on focus here, but still the return home spot is
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 5: always tough to overcome. So I think the spot does
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: favor Cleveland here. Cleveland is coming in from Baltimore. So
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 5: they're in the middle of a road trip. They had
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 5: a bad series against Baltimore. Um, Yeah, I think the
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 5: spot favors Cleveland. I think Cleveland has the better starting
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 5: pitcher on the mound, too. So I like Cleveland in
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 5: this one. Cleveland has the better bullpen. Both bullpens are rested.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 5: I don't know why I'm looking at that.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: It's habit. Cleveland, let me see. They're number 12 in
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: bullpen right now. Not bad.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 5: Minnesota is, we know, not very good. Number 29 in bullpen.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're quite that bad, but they're definitely bad. Offensively,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 5: Minnesota is the better team, though. Minnesota's number nine, tied
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 5: with the Red Sox. Cleveland is number 28. But Cleveland's
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 5: got Parker Messick on the mound, man. The only thing
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 5: you have to worry about with him is the innings
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 5: pitch count. Like, he's already up to 167. Is that
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 5: going to, you know, is he going to fatigue? Is
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 5: he going to fall off a little bit? Because he's
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 5: a young guy.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's been really good. He's in the rookie
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: of the year running here.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 5: 2.53 ERA, 1.04 whip, really good stuff here. He's been
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 5: really good on the road, 2.25 road ERA, 186 opponent
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 5: batting average on the road as well, which is really,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 5: really good. Had 12 strikeouts last time out against Detroit,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 5: so that kind of tells you he is not losing
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 5: his stuff. He's still pitching really well here. He's given
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 5: up three or fewer earned runs in every start, going
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 5: all the way back to when?
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 4: Is it the entire season? Yeah, it's the entire season.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 5: No, one start he allowed more than that, and it
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 5: was at the A's Stadium in May. So if you
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 5: throw that start out. Oh, no, wait, there was one
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 5: against the... Oh, no, wait, I skipped over June completely.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 5: All right, never mind. He's allowed four earned runs three
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: times this season, and fewer than that in all the
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 5: other starts. And he hasn't allowed that many since the
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 5: end of June, so that's what it is. All right,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: he's got a low hit rate here, low walk rate,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 5: high strikeout rate.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, all that stuff is good.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 5: 3.8 strikeout walk ratio, that's pretty good. 9.3 strikeout per nine,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 5: pretty good. Messick against Minnesota is.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: Crazy.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 5: Fine, 50 at-bats, really good 15-to-1 strikeout walk ratio, but
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 5: they've hit him for some average, 260, but their OPS
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 5: is not that good against him, 655, so they haven't
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: really hit him for power. So I do think Messick
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 5: should pitch well here. He'll be going up against Taj Bradley,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 5: who is a little bit wilder. Bradley, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty good, though, this year, and he's good
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 5: at home, 3.3 home ERA. Wasn't great in his last
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 5: start at the White Sox. He was a little shaky there.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 5: But he's been decent, generally. His last, like, four starts,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 5: kind of besides that one, have all been fairly good.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 5: But he's walking too many guys here, although he does
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 5: have a high strikeout rate, too. He's got a low
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 5: hit rate. He walks too many guys, and he strikes
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: out a lot of guys.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: That's what he does.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 5: Strikeout walk ratio, given how many walks he has, I mean, 2.7,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 5: I guess, isn't too bad. 10.4 strikeout per nine is
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 5: definitely good. So he does have strikeout ability here, strikeout talent,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 5: and he is actually pretty good against Cleveland. In 78 at-bats,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 5: 218 average, 607 OPS, 24 to 6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: So those numbers are good.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 5: So I kind of lean Cleveland here just because of
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: the situation here. And the money agrees with it. 82%
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 95% of the cash on them at about
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 5: minus 120.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: The thing is, I.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 5: Mean, both pitchers do have decent matchup numbers here, and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 5: Bradley's are a little bit better. So I don't know
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 5: if I necessarily love it, but I would still probably
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 5: slightly lean Cleveland because I think Messick is the better
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 5: overall pitcher, and they have the better situation.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: But I think maybe the under... Might be a better
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: way to look at this game.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 5: I lean Cleveland, but I do lean the under as well.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 5: I don't know which one I like better, actually. 80%
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 88% of the cash on the over. But
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 5: the total's low, 7.5. But you know I don't like
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 5: Minnesota's bullpen. So, I mean, maybe a first five under,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 5: but then you're looking at that dreaded, you know, 3, 3.5, whatever.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 5: I don't know if I necessarily love that either, but
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: I don't love Minnesota's bullpen at all.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: Like, I'd want to avoid them if I can. So,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 5: The game just has to be a pass for me. But, yeah,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 5: I lean Cleveland. Maybe Cleveland is the better look here,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 5: but I do also still lean to the under in
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: some capacity in that game.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: White Sox are at St. Louis.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: St.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 5: Louis is returning home from a road trip, a long one.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 5: They went to L.A., Colorado, and then back out west
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 5: to the Giants, and now they're returning home from all that.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: You know, I think that's a negative, returning home from
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 5: a road trip like that. They're facing an American League team.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 5: Even though the White Sox are a division leader, I
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 5: don't know.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: Does St.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: Louis really get up for this? I'm not so sure
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: about that. I think it's a distracted spot for St.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: Louis. Both teams, I believe, were off yesterday. No, the
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: White Sox played. My mistake. Yeah, the White Sox played yesterday.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: So St.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 5: Louis does have a rest advantage here, but they're in
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 5: the dreaded return home spot. So, yeah, I mean, the
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 5: situational factors conflict with each other, right? Like Chicago has
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: a rest disadvantage, but St. Louis has what I think
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: is probably a bigger disadvantage, which is the return home
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 5: spot situation. The White Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 5: The White Sox are the better bullpen, though. They're number 15,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 5: and St. Louis is number 22. White Sox bullpen ERA
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 5: is almost a run better, though. White Sox is number
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 5: 12 in hitting. They're also better in that department.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: St.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 5: Louis is number 26. So Chicago's the better team here.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 5: Can we back Anthony Kaye, though, on the road? I'm
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 5: not so sure about that. Kaye is pitching for the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: White Sox, 4.47 ERA, 1.36 whip. He's been mediocre, but
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 5: he's been, I would say, bad on the road. 5.25
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 5: roadier rate. I don't think he's that good of a pitcher.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 5: His last three starts have all been pretty bad. He
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 5: hasn't made it five innings in any of them. He's
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 5: been allowing a lot of runs here. This is not good,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 5: so I don't really love any of that. Bad recent form.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's too high in the season. His walk
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 5: rate's not that good. He does not really strike guys out.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 5: So advanced analytics guys will tell you he's not good. 2.3
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is not very good. 7.4 strikeout per
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 5: nine is also not really that good. So a lot
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 5: of me saying this is not good here. However, it's
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 5: a pitcher-friendly park, and he's good against St. Louis, but
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: in a small sample, seven at bat. So maybe we
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 5: shouldn't take that much away from it. The only hit
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 5: is a double from Burleson. They have four guys who
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 5: have faced him. They have four strikeouts, no walks against him.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: 143 average, 429 OPS.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 5: McCain might be able to actually pitch well. I know
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 5: he's not good on the road. But this might be
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 5: one matchup where he actually does okay.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: And okay.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 5: Oh, and he's going up against Matthew Liberatore. And I
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 5: think he's the worst of the two pitchers here. 5.57 ERA, 1.47 whip.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: That's not good. He's been bad at home.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 5: 5.87 home ERA with a 3.06 opponent batting average at home.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: That's not good. He's been in bad form recently. His
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 5: last three starts have mostly been bad. Although his strikeout
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 5: rate was kind of high for a while in there.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: He had good command recently.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: Numbers in the month of August, and it was kind
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 5: of inexplicable why he gave up so many runs in August,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 5: but he's not pitching well, and St. Louis has lost
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 5: six starts in a row that he's made, so the
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: trends are against him here. He's got a high hit rate.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's not really that good. He allows a
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 5: lot of home runs. His strikeout rate is good, though.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 5: He does strike guys out at least. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 5: Could be worse, I guess.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: 9.3 strikeout per night.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 5: So he is striking guys out, but it's come at
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 5: a cost because he's not pitching well.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: Otherwise.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 5: A lot of these numbers are bad besides the strikeout number. Although, again,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 5: his walk number isn't really that bad, but he's gotten
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 5: hit hard.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: Let me see.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: Although his walk number is not really that excellent either.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 5: Who are we talking about here? The White socks yeah
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 5: his numbers against the white socks are pretty bad 20
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 5: at bats 300 average 1033 ops small sample though six
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 5: batters have faced him four to one strikeout walk ratio
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 5: so yeah i like the white socks.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: In this one um I considered it. The money's all
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: coming in on St. Louis, it looks like. 56% of
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: tickets on the White Sox.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 5: I think it's because everybody knows the White Sox need
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: to win to hang on to the division and whatever.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: But they're going to be more motivated. You're not paying
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 5: that much for the White Sox. It's like a pick-em
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: price here. Given that, and given what we just saw
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 5: with all the matchup stuff and St. Louis being in
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 5: a return home spot, the negative is that K is
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 5: bad on the road and the White Sox have a
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 5: rest disadvantage here. I don't quite want to do it,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 5: but yeah, I mean, I think I like the White
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 5: Sox here. They're about minus 110, but 76% of the
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 5: cash on St. Louis, 56% of the tickets on the
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 5: White Sox. The over is getting some traction. I probably
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: don't disagree with that. 72% of tickets on the under,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 5: 90% of the cash on the over.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: The total is eight and a half. I think I
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: agree with the over.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think either pitcher is very good here,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 5: so I'd probably agree with the over there. All right,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 5: next game up is my play. I told you this
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 5: is going to be a really, really bad one, really ugly.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 5: And we do not have many viewers today here on
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 5: a Friday. We're going to take the A's plus a
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 5: half run in the first five here, which you can
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 5: get it plus money. And I would also say if
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 5: you do this, put like 10% of it on the
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 5: money line as well. Just sprinkle a little bit on
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 5: the money line just because if they're going to cover,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 5: this is a decent chance they'll hit on the money
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 5: line here. They're playing against Seattle, and I know Seattle,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 5: they need to win, but I think that's overvaluing Seattle
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 5: in the market here, and Seattle's coming up a big
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 5: series against the Rangers.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 4: And yes, I know this is revenge against the A's.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 5: They just faced the A's prior to that, and they
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 5: lost the series three out of four at home. So
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 5: Seattle should not overlook the A's here. But this still,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 5: to me, could be a letdown spot. And there's a
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 5: lot of pressure on Seattle here, man. Coming up, those
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: big wins over Texas. Having to go into this A's stadium.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: I think it's not that great for Seattle, even though
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 5: starting a road trip usually is a focused spot. I'm
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 5: not so sure about that here because Seattle's having to
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 5: go from their extremely pitcher friendly part to one of
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 5: the most hitter friendly in baseball. I think the transition
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 5: is not really that good in the A's. At least
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 5: they prove that they're playing hard against Seattle and that
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 5: they can beat Seattle. Um, so I think that's another
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 5: way to look at this year. I know the A's
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 5: are not good at home, but Seattle's really bad on
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 5: the road too. So, uh, the home road splits are
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 5: kind of against both teams here.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: Really?
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 5: The A's are staying at home. They did just win
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 5: a series against the blue Jays. So they're just kind
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 5: of staying at home here, but the A's have a
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 5: rest edge. Seattle played yesterday and they had another close
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 5: game and they beat Texas yesterday. So yeah, Seattle has,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 5: they're having to travel to the A's here to Sacramento
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 5: with no days off while the A's are not having
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 5: to travel at all. Plus they have a rest advantage here.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 5: So there are definitely some advantages for the A's here.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 5: Of course, one thing I do not like is the
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 5: A's bullpen, so I'm keeping them out here. Seattle used
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 5: two relief pitchers yesterday. Seattle's bullpen has not been good.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 5: They're number 20. They've been way worse than you would expect,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 5: but the A's are still worse. The A's are 28th,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 5: and I think they're still the worst, so I'm still
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 5: excluding the A's bullpen here. They're disadvantaged against everybody in
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 5: the bullpen. The A's are number 13 offensively. Seattle's 29th,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 5: tied in last with Anaheim. Although they should be able
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 5: to hit better in this stadium, but still the A's
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 5: have the hitting edge here. Although I know some of
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 5: those numbers are skewed because of the ballparks that these
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 5: teams play in.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: George Kirby is pitching for Seattle here. I don't think
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: he's that great, man.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 5: 4.18 ERA, 1.34 whip. And we're catching him on the
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: road here where he's way worse. 5.48 road ERA, 332
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 5: opponent batting average on the road. So a lot of
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 5: Seattle pitchers do way better at home. And he's one
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 5: of them. He's significantly worse on the road. Pitched pretty
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 5: well against the A's last time out at home, but
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 5: that was at home. He wasn't pitching well prior to that,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 5: and in fact, his last three road starts have all
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: been abysmal.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: Actually, his last four.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 5: His last four road starts, he's allowed five or more
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 5: runs in all of them. Against Texas, that's not a
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 5: great sign. Houston, Milwaukee, and then Boston. So, yeah, those
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 5: are all more capable offenses, but still, he's not pitching
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 5: well on the road. He's got a really high hit
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 5: rate on the season, which isn't good. He doesn't really
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 5: walk many guys, but his strikeout rate is also kind
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 5: of low. So, yeah, I'm not sold on Kirby really
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 5: even being that good. His numbers have gone way down
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 5: this year. He was really good 2023, 2024. little bit
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 5: worse last year now this year i don't know he's
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 5: definitely falling off man so i don't know what's going
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 5: on with him 3.6 string of walk ratio 7.5 k's
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 5: per nine those numbers are the lowest he's ever posted
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 5: his numbers against the a's are not good in 74
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 5: at bats 311 average 779 311 um uh.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: I like that band.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but he's kind of a beautiful disaster. 779 OPS
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 5: against the A's here. Not good, although 11-1 strikeout walk
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 5: ratio is good, but the rest of these numbers are not.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 5: And Kirby is a little bit fly ball heavy, too.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 5: He's allowed 21 runs this year. He's not the most
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: fly ball heavy pitcher, but still, he might struggle in
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 5: this stadium, man.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: And we're going to back Jeffrey Springs.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 5: Here, even though I know that doesn't look like a
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 5: good idea. 6.02 ERA, 1.45 whip.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: I know those numbers are bad. He's way worse at home.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: I get it.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: Both pitchers are in the worst home road splits here.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 5: He's got a 7.18 home ERA. He was good in
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 5: Seattle last time out, though. He shut them out for
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 5: seven innings, and I know his last two home starts
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: were both bad.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: I get that.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 5: He's not good at home. I know the stadium sucks.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 5: He's a lot of tunnel home runs. I understand that.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: He's a heavy fly ball pitcher. None of that is
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 5: good for the stadium. His hit rate's not good. His
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 5: walk rate's not good. His strikeout rate's not good. So
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 5: why am I backing him here?
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: He's got a.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 5: Two strikeout walk ratio, 7.2 strikeout per nine. Yeah, Kirby's
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 5: a better pitcher than Springs is. I understand all that. Springs,
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, he wasn't too bad last year, though. And
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 5: I'm going to do this year because he's actually good
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 5: against Seattle. And it's all about the spot, but it's
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 5: about the starting pitching matchup. Seattle has not been able
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 5: to hit him. They have 116 at-bats against him, a
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: 155 average, 457 OPS, 31-9. strikeout walk ratio I know
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 5: some of these starts were in Seattle but still Seattle
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 5: has not matched up well against Springs for whatever reason
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 5: another North Carolina pitcher by the way Springs I told
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 5: you this is going to be real ugly but this
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 5: is what I'm doing here man uh I think Seattle's
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 5: overvalued we're getting the rest advantage with the A's here
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 5: um This game, of course, could maybe be an over
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 5: as well. The money is coming in on the over
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 5: as well. The total's 10, 10.5 here. Both pitchers in
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 5: the worst home road split, so I wouldn't disagree with
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 5: the over, but we're taking the ace for us five.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 5: 83% of tickets, 93% of the cash on Seattle. They're
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 5: minus 160-something here. Everybody knows Seattle's got to win. They're public, although, yeah,
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 5: it looks like some of the money's on them too.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 5: That's also full game, though. That's the full game market there.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 5: I'm going first five. I'm going to take the A's here.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 5: That's my only play of the day. I almost had
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: no plays, so maybe I'm being too selective here. But
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 5: like I said, other than that, I like Cincinnati first five,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 5: and I like the Mets money line full game and
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati run line first five. Those would be my other
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 5: better leans of the day, I would say. All right,
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 5: we have Texas and Arizona. That's right, an hour and
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 5: a half, and I'm still not done with baseball. I
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 5: hate baseball, dude. I just get way too detailed. I
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 5: got to find a way to not be as detailed
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 5: with these breakdowns or something. Arizona's returning home from a
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 5: road trip. You know I talk about this. Teams returning
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 5: home from the road.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 4: It's negative.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 5: They went to Houston and Kansas City. They won both series.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 5: Now they're returning home. Arizona's still got to win, though,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 5: because they're fighting with San Diego basically for the last
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 5: wild card spot here, and they're a half game behind
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 5: right now. So Arizona's got to be motivated, but so
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 5: does Texas. Texas trying to win their division, or potentially
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 5: make a wild card. So both teams are kind of
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 5: in a similar motivational spot here. But Arizona's, in my opinion,
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 5: in the worst spot because they're returning home from the road,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 5: and that can be a distracted spot.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: You've got to get back to home life.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 5: Texas played yesterday, though, so Texas is at a rest disadvantage.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 5: Arizona did not play yesterday, so it's another game where
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 5: you have a team returning home from the road.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: But has a rest advantage. So it's like, well... What
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: happens here?
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 5: I think the return home from the road is actually
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 5: worse than the rest disadvantage, though. Texas is coming in
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 5: from Seattle, but that was a tough series against Seattle, man.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: That was a big series. They lost the series.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: Maybe they'll be a little bit hung over after that.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 5: As far as the bullpens here, I think Arizona is
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: actually the better bullpen, as weird as that sounds. They're
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 5: also rested because they didn't use anybody yesterday. Texas used
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 5: three guys, so I think Arizona's got the bullpen edge.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: They're number six in bullpen, even though I don't think
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 5: they're that good. Texas has been a very disappointing bullpen
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 5: this year, number 21, so I think Arizona does have
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 5: the edge there. Offensively, neither team is that good. Texas
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 5: is 16th, tied with the Braves, and I don't think
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 5: they're that good. Arizona's 22nd, so both offenses have had
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 5: some issues, I would say. Kumar Rocker's pitching for Texas.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 5: This is not exactly a good pitching matchup here. He's
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 5: got a 4.61 ERA, 1.44 whip.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: That's not good.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 5: He's actually all of a sudden better on the road.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: I don't know why he's been so bad at home.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 5: He's allowed a ton of home runs at home, although
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 5: he's thrown way more innings at home. But I don't know,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 5: because Texas, home stadium is more pitcher friendly so I
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 5: don't really get that but he's got a 400 excuse
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 5: me a four road era which is better than his
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 5: era at home he's not really pitching well though he
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 5: was bad last month he was not so good in
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 5: his last start either his first start in September none
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 5: of this is that good His hit rate is high.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is too high. His strikeout rate is
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 5: just okay. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is not great. 8.5
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 5: strikeout per night. None of this is really that good.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 5: Rocker against Arizona is actually pretty good, though. 17 at-bats,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 5: not a big sample. Most of their hitters have faced him, though.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 5: They have no extra base hits against him. A 176 average,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: 510 OPS, 3-4 strikeout walk ratio. So the ratio is
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 5: not good. But the rest of his numbers are actually good.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 5: against arizona and he's kind of in the better home
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 5: road split here as weird as that is to say
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 5: merrill kelly is pitching for arizona he's had a bad
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 5: season 5.06 era 1.47 whip he's worse at home 6.1
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 5: home era so rocker has the better home road splits
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 5: here kelly was pretty good in his last couple starts
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 5: against san francisco and houston both on the road but
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 5: he still walked too many guys in the san francisco
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 5: start and before the houston game he was walking a
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 5: ton of guys. So I don't think I really trust
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 5: him here. He's been pretty much bad all season. His
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 5: hit rate's not good. His walk rate's very bad. His
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is low. His strikeout walk ratio is terrible.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 5: It's one of the worst you're going to find. 1.5,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 5: really bad. Like he's fallen off a cliff this year
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 5: after he's had a pretty good career, but this year
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 5: has been really bad for him.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: Returning to his former team too, you would.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 5: Have thought that he would have continued to pitch well,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 5: but that hasn't been the case. Um, His strikeout per nine,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 5: six is also the worst that he's ever posted, I think.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: None of that is good.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 5: Kelly against Texas has been okay in 94 at-bets.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: He was on Texas last year.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 5: 245 average, 648 OPS, 26-4 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 4: So those are actually good numbers.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 5: And he might get up for this because I believe
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 5: this is the first time he's facing Texas since... they
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 5: got rid of him or whatever. So he is facing
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 5: his former team for the first time. So that might
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 5: pump him up a little bit. Although Arizona has been
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 5: where he spent his entire career. Besides late last year,
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 5: he was on Texas for just 10 starts or whatever,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 5: or no 10 appearance.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah. 10 starts.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 5: Yes.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: Okay. What do we do with this game, man? I mean,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 5: I think I kind of leaned towards Texas in this one. um,
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 5: just because of the, well, the money does agree with it,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 5: but I think the, um, but actually I shouldn't have
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 5: done that because both teams are undecided right now. So
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 5: we don't even really know who's pitching, but those were
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 5: the originally scheduled starters here.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: So do what you want with that info.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 5: This is a really difficult game to actually want to
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 5: play because we don't know who the pitchers are going
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 5: to be. 73% of tickets, 71% of the cash on Arizona.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: If you wanted to just play.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 5: Texas blindly, I guess you could just based on the
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 5: return home spot for Arizona being negative. But if I
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 5: was going to do that, I would say only play
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 5: Texas in the first five, though, because we know that
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 5: Arizona is going to have a bullpen edge here. Arizona
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 5: is around minus 130 here, but 73% of tickets, 71%
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Arizona. The money is also strongly
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 5: on the over in this game, over nine and five.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: I probably agree.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 5: If it's the pitching matchup we just talked about, even
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 5: though they both have good matchup numbers.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 5: To me, it kind of seems like more of an
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 5: over than an under. It's just pitching that isn't really
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 5: that good, but we don't really even know if those
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 5: pitchers are actually pitching here. So it's a difficult game
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 5: to actually want to do anything with.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: Garrett, what's up?
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out. All right, and then the last game,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 5: Apple TV. It's a doubleheader, I guess, on Apple TV.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 5: San Diego and San Francisco. Now, I said San Diego,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: they got to keep being motivated because they're in that
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 5: heated wild card race against Arizona here right now. San
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 5: Francisco's staying at home off a sweep of the Cardinals,
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 5: and I think San Francisco will still get up for
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 5: a game like this because it's a divisional series where
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 5: they get to play spoiler against San Diego. So I
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 5: think San Francisco will want to get up for this
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 5: game still. San Diego's coming off a sweep as well,
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 5: so both teams are playing well right now, at least
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 5: over their last few games. San Diego just swept Washington.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 5: and now they're coming into this game. Neither team played yesterday,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 5: so both teams have rest here. Bullpen-wise, San Diego's got
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen. They're number five. I think, yeah, that's
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 5: around what they really are. San Francisco's number 24. They
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 5: might be slightly better than that, but yeah, obviously, better
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 5: bullpen is with San Diego here. San Francisco's number 18 offensively,
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 5: but they're not particularly good at home. San Diego, number 24,
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 5: tied with the Mets. offensively is not exactly that good.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 5: Robbie Ray pitching for San Diego. This is interesting because
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 5: he's now pitching against his former team, the team that
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 5: traded him away at the trade deadline.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: So he's pitching against San Francisco for the first time.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 5: So that might pump him up. He gets to pitch
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 5: against his former team and we know he pitched well
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 5: in this stadium. He was good at home when he
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 5: pitched with San Francisco. So, A couple of things in
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 5: his favor. He pitches well in the stadium, although I
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 5: don't know if his mental state is going to be
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 5: different being on the road instead of at home. But again,
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 5: I think he might get pumped up for this because
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: he gets to go against the team that let him go.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 5: So he probably wants to prove something. Ray has a 3.39 ERA,
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 5: although his whip isn't that good, 1.34. Usually he's worse
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 5: on the road, but his ERA actually isn't really that
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 5: bad on the road at this point. 3.62, so that's
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 5: not that bad. We backed him in his last start,
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 5: which I believe was at home. He didn't do well, though,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 5: against the Yankees, but we did get the under right
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 5: in that game still because the bullpen saved us there.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 5: But Ray, like I said, he was good at home,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 5: and most of that was with San Francisco. So he
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 5: does pitch well in this stadium, and I think he's
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 5: pitched fine in San Diego Stadium as well for the
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 5: most part. Not that last start against the Yankees, but
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 5: he pitches well in these pitcher-friendly parks for the most part, though.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: There's some issues with Ray, though.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 5: He's been walking way too many guys recently and not
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 5: striking out that many, so that's a problem. His walk
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 5: rate has been a huge problem recently. He's walking a
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 5: lot of guys recently. His hit rate is low, though,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 5: but his walk rate is high on the season. His
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is very low. So his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 5: is really bad.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: It's 1.6. Yeah, that's bad. So he's got some issues here.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 5: He's not really fooling guys, and he's issuing, which is
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 5: an issue, way too many walks. 7.6 strikeup or nine
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 5: is very mediocre. Ray against his former team, San Francisco,
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 5: they only have two guys who have faced him. Devers
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 5: has done some damage against him, but Devers and Harris,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 5: the only two hitters that have faced him, combined for
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 5: a 231 average. But an 872 will be asked because
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 5: Devers does have a double and a home run against
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 5: him and a walk. and they have four combined strikeouts
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 5: against him. But Ray, I mean, he's generally unfamiliar to
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 5: San Francisco, although, of course, San Francisco knows what he throws,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 5: because that rhymes, because he was on their team.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: But even so....
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 5: I think that Ray might still be able to go
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 5: with that unfamiliarity there and actually pitch well here.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 4: Plus, he's going to be motivated. San Francisco is going
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 4: with Anthony Molina.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 5: He's kind of interesting because he looked like he was
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 5: a bad pitcher when he was on Colorado, but it
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 5: might be the Colorado effect, although he pitched a little
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 5: bit for Atlanta earlier this year, and he wasn't good
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 5: there either. But he's been good this season. He's been
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 5: good since the Giants got him. This season, even including
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 5: when he wasn't that good with Atlanta, 2.79 ERA,. 88 ERA.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: Whip, that's not bad.
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 5: He's had a 2.84 home area this year, which isn't
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 5: bad either. He's been a starter since San Francisco got him,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: and they ramped him up a little, but he's gone
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 5: five innings in his last two starts. He's been good
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 5: since San Francisco got him. He's allowed three or fewer
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 5: earned runs in all of his starts.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 4: I think two of.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 5: Them have been starts, I think. He's pitching pretty well
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 5: right now. Overall in the season, his hit rate's okay.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 5: He hasn't really walked a lot of guys at all.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate has been okay, so Molina might actually
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 5: not be that bad. His strikeout walk ratio this year
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 5: is five. That's pretty good, although it's a small sample size.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 5: Seven strikeout per nine is not really that good, but
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 5: that means he's walked very few hitters.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: Molina against San Diego.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 5: They have 15 at-bats against them, seven guys in their
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 5: lineup have faced them. They have a 200 average because
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 5: he was on Colorado. They have a 200 average against them,
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 5: 467 OPS. That's good considering some of these at-bats might
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 5: have happened in Coors Field. They only have one extra
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: base hit against them, a double from Machado, five strikeouts,
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 5: no walks here. So Molina might be able to pitch
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 5: well here too. I think this might be an under.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 5: I think that's probably how I would play this game,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 5: but the money seems to totally disagree. 70% of tickets
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 5: on the under 91% of the cash on the over
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 5: the totals low though. It's at eight, seven and a
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 5: half here. You got offenses that aren't that good. It's
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 5: a pitcher friendly park. I think both pitchers are under
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 5: the kind of under the radar radar and might pitch
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 5: better here than you think.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 5: Um, and, the bullpens might be able to hold up
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 5: in a game like this. So yeah, I think the
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 5: under might be the better way to look at this.
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 5: San Diego's got 83% of tickets, 92% of the cash
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 5: on them. They're around minus 140 something. I still don't
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 5: really think Ray is worthy of being that heavy of
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 5: a favorite on the road. Like San Diego, we know
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 5: they must win pretty much here at this point because
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 5: they're in that wild card battle, but I think you're
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 5: paying for it. If you want to play San Diego,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 5: the books are definitely charging you for it. So I
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 5: don't know, man, I think I'd prefer the under in
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 5: this game, but It's not a play for me.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think that's all. And the money's completely
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 5: disagreeing with me on that. But it's a low total. And,
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 5: you know, I always say when it's a low total,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 5: it's low for a reason.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: All right, let's do it. college football before I get
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: out of here.
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 5: First game up is going to be my play. I'm
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 5: not going to talk about all the FCS, FBS games,
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 5: but I do have a play in one of them,
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 5: which is Villanova at number 24 Louisville on the ACC network.
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 4: I think we got to do this, man. It's a
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: spot play.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 5: And when it's Friday night, you know, I was like, whatever,
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 5: I'll just handicap all these games.
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: I'll focus on them.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 5: We're going to take Villanova plus 36.5 in this one. Yeah,
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 5: they're a huge underdog, but the total's not exactly that
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 5: high at 56.5. You're asking a lot of Louisville to
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 5: cover this. And Louisville, remember what I said last week,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 5: even though I know they put up a ton of
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 5: points in that game against Ole.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: Miss, Louisville... They're mostly.
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: About their rushing attack. They have an elite running back.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 5: They brought him back this year, but their quarterback is new,
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 5: even though he looked all right against Ole Miss, and
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 5: he had that clutch touchdown that tied the game late.
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 5: But Louisville might be focusing on running the football, especially
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 5: if they're winning. And I know a lot of guys,
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: when they talk about handicapping favorites like this, they'll talk
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 5: about how, oh, when a team's good at running the
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 5: football and they're winning the game, they're going to run
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 5: the football, and they're still going to be doing what
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 5: they do best. And they'll be able to pad the lead.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 5: That is true about Louisville in this game. But still,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 5: to me, it just seems like for a team that's
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 5: just a better running team in general, I think we're
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 5: kind of banking on them to just not build a
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 5: lead that's going to be that big in this game.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 5: And this is really about the spot, though. This is
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 5: a sandwich spot for Louisville. It's sandwiched in between two
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 5: ranked games. One of them, they just played Ole Miss,
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 5: which is the biggest.
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: Game of the week. And that game was on.
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 4: I believe. So they're on a short week here, too. Right?
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: I think so.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 5: That was September 6th. Yes, that was five days ago.
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 5: So that was Sunday, I'm pretty sure. So Louisville's having
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 5: to play on a short week here. And you saw
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 5: what happened in that game. It was a huge battle.
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 5: Ole Miss was winning the game by 14, I think,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 5: in the fourth quarter against Louisville came all the way
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 5: back and tied it, sent it into overtime, and then
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 5: wound up losing.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: You've got to think Louisville's going to be flat after that.
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 5: Now having a short turnaround time, they have to play
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 5: Villanova here. And they're traveling as well because that was
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 5: a neutral site game.
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: That was in... Nashville. So now they're traveling. This, this
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: is going to be their home opener. I get it.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 5: And I know the home opener Friday night, it's kind
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 5: of a big deal. The crowd's going to be crazy.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 5: They're going to be looking for their first win, but
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 5: are they really going to be motivated to cover a
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 5: 37 and a half point spread here, which you might
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 5: be able to find 37 and a half right now,
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 5: obviously get the better number.
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 4: If you could do that.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 5: Um, I'll update it if I can find one right now.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 5: But Louisville, I don't see them being motivated to really
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 5: just clobber Villanova here. Like, why would they be that
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 5: motivated to do that? They're coming off a really tough
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 5: game where they put in a huge effort. And up next,
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 5: they got to play SMU, man.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: And that's going to be a.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 5: Huge game because that's their first ACC game and not
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 5: only is it their first ACC game but Louisville and
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 5: SMU are like the two teams in this conference that
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 5: are considered to be potential threats to Miami so it's
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 5: basically like the number two and number three teams in
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 5: the conference facing each other in that game that's a
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 5: huge game against SMU so this is absolutely a sandwich
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 5: spot And SMU is ranked as well. So I see
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 5: Louisville not fully paying attention to Villanova here.
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 4: Plus, oh, it gets better than that too. Just wait.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 5: Louisville, they're on short rest here. Villanova played against Bucknell.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 5: I believe they played on Saturday. Yeah, because every team
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 5: played on Saturday pretty much. So Louisville has one extra
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 5: day of rest. And I know, excuse me, Villanova. Villanova
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 5: played on Saturday. Villanova has an extra day of rest.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: Compared to Louisville.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 5: By the way, if you don't know, Villanova is usually
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 5: one of the better teams in FCS football. I know
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 5: their football doesn't get talked about too much, but they're
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 5: usually really good in FCS. This year, they're the 17th
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 5: ranked FCS team. So they're a pretty good FCS team.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 5: And yes, I know they didn't play well in this
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 5: game against Bucknell, but look at this, man. Villanova was
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 5: a 22.5 point favorite in this game, down from 26.5,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 5: and they almost lost the game to Bucknell.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: They looked horrible in this game. They only won the
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 4: game 17-16.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 5: You know Bucknell got up for this, though. Bucknell, they're
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 5: an in-state little brother to Villanova. Like, Villanova's in Philadelphia.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 5: They're considered to be one of the big boys in
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 5: the state of Pennsylvania. Bucknell is the little guy in
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 5: the Patriot League. They're both in the same league, though,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 5: the Patriot League, but Bucknell, because it's football, not basketball,
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 5: but still, Bucknell, I think, is just considered to be
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 5: the little brother.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 4: Out of these two teams.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 5: Like, Villanova is just always a better program, pretty much,
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 5: in football and basketball. So Bucknell, you know they went
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 5: all out to try to win this game, and they
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 5: almost did. And you know what I always say, I
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 5: like taking teams that were a huge favorite in their
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 5: last game, and they had a huge scare and almost
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 5: lost the game. And you can kind of explain it. Like, Villanova,
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 5: I think they just didn't give a shit about this game.
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 5: And they might have been looking ahead to this huge
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: game against Louisville. I think you're going to get a
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 5: much better effort out of Villanova here, and nobody's going
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 5: to want them because they looked like ass against Bucknell. Bucknell,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 5: by the way, I was going to say they already
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 5: had a game under their belt, but Villanova did as well, actually,
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 5: so never mind that.
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: FCS, I think they play a little bit differently. They
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 4: don't have a week zero or whatever.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 5: Villanova had to win that game on a field goal
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 5: with eight minutes left in the game. They're actually losing
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 5: the game in the fourth quarter. So yeah, Villanova, they're
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 5: coming off an escape. So you're getting them coming off
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 5: an escape or they should be in a massively focused
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 5: spot here against.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: The Louisville team.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 5: That should be in an unfocused spot in my opinion,
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: even though yes, it's their home opener on prime time,
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 5: but Villanova has got the rest edge to plus the spot. Yeah.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 5: Villanova in a focused spot coming off a scare Louisville
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 5: and a sandwich spot.
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 4: We're going to do it.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 5: We're going to take Villanova plus the points here. Uh,
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 5: let me see here. Um, Yeah, the money seems to
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 5: agree with this. Looks like you can get 37, 37
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 5: and a half now on this. It's a public over.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 5: Not really much going on with the total here, though.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 5: But again, I'm focusing on the side, of course. 77%
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 5: of tickets on Louisville, only 52% of the cash on them.
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 5: So the money is absolutely agreeing with Villanova here.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: I saw this and I was like, it has to
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 4: make the card, man.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 5: It can't make my pick seven though, because we don't
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 5: have any FCS games in the pick seven, but you
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 5: can bet on it.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: So maybe I do need to pay attention to more FCS, man.
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: Who's Bucknell playing this week?
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 5: They're playing VMI, and yeah, you know, it's a low total,
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 5: and Bucknell's laying 10.5.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 4: You know what?
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 5: VMI is worth a look this week, I'll tell you that,
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 5: but I got to talk about all these games on Saturday, man. Dude,
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 5: I don't want to expand myself to all these FCS games.
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 5: I'm going to have so many plays if I do that.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 5: I think I'm not going to do that, but I
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 5: usually have like one or two games that involve FCS
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 5: versus FBS just because the FBS.
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 4: Kind of bleeds into it, but.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah, if you're going to play Bucknell-VMI, I would take
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 5: the points with VMI, although I haven't looked at what
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 5: VMI did in their last game, but Bucknell, after coming
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 5: that close in that game against Villanova, they're going to
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 5: be in a hangover spot, so I would take the
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 5: points with VMI in that one. Anyway, Villanova plus the
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 5: points is my play there. You're going to tail it.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 5: I mean, this is some ugly shit, man. But they're
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 5: on my card for a reason. I'm worried about the A's, though.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 5: What else do we have today? I mean, we have
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 5: Virginia and Norfolk State. I will say Norfolk State usually
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 5: gets up for these little brother, big brother situations. And
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 5: Virginia's laying a lot of points. Virginia's coming off looking
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 5: really good and destroying NC State. Although I believe that was,
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 5: was that a week zero game? Did they have a
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 5: week off already? Yeah, Virginia already had a week off.
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: That's so stupid, dude. Yeah, it looks like they did, right?
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 4: Am I doing that right?
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: So, I don't know. Virginia already had.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 5: A bye week, it looks like, which is really, really stupid. So,
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 5: the bye week might actually interfere with Virginia a little
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 5: bit more. Because, you know, I talk about when you
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 5: go into a bye week, especially when it's not even necessary.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 4: And.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 5: You're coming off a big win. Like, Virginia looked awesome
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 5: against NC State. They do have West Virginia next, which
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 5: is at least a bigger game than Norfolk State.
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: So, yeah. I don't want to go into detail with
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: all these FCS games. I usually don't.
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 5: But if you're going to play this game, I would
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 5: play Norfolk State. They also just got wrecked by Old Dominion.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 5: Although I know that's another game where Norfolk State is
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 5: a little brother in the state of Virginia.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: But, yeah. Norfolk state got to play through though. They
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 4: played last week.
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 5: So yes, Virginia does have a rest edge, but I
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 5: think the buy might hurt Virginia actually. So I like
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 5: Norfolk state and that when the money seems to agree
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 5: with that one to 74% of tickets, 68% of the
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 5: cash in Virginia, they're laying 45 and a half or more.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 5: So if you want that, yeah, I would take Norfolk
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 5: state with the points there, Richmond and NC state. I
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 5: don't know. I mean, the money's coming in an NC
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 5: or no, it was coming in an NC state, but
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 5: now it's not. Richmond is a little brother as well
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 5: in state. Um, So they're going to get up for
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 5: a game against NC State. But NC State got wrecked
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 5: in their game by Virginia. I think they had a
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: bye too. So I think the spot is actually better
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 5: for NC State here. It's definitely a better spot for
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 5: them than it is.
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: Tonight for Virginia. You know what I mean?
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 5: NC State looked horrible in that game against Virginia. And
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 5: then they had a week off to kind of fix shit.
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 5: So I honestly don't really think NC State is going
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 5: to overlook this game that much.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 4: Although Richmond will get up for it. I don't really
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: want to play Richmond. This is the least.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 5: Of those three games, Richmond did just barely get by Howard, though,
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 5: so Richmond was a big favorite here.
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 4: They're 14-point favorites here.
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 5: Against Howard, and they won more easily than it looked.
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 5: Howard uh got a garbage time touchdown at the end
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 5: it looks like or um no not at the end
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 5: but in the fourth quarter at least uh but uh
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 5: howard was hanging around with him one score for a
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 5: while there so richmond did kind of get a scare
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 5: as a big favorite Oh, wait, what am I saying?
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is not an in-state game. Or no, yeah,
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 4: what am I saying? Richmond's in Virginia. What am I saying?
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 5: Yeah, this is not an in-state game. I was still
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 5: thinking of Virginia and Norfolk State.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know what I'm thinking.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 5: Yeah, not an in-state little brother, big brother situation here,
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 5: but it's a game Richmond will get up for, but
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man. I mean, I kind of like
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 5: NC State laying the points in this one, actually, because
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 5: NC State, they had a bye last week. They were
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 5: coming off a real ugly performance in I don't know, though,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 5: because Richmond, they're coming off a scare as well, so
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man. But if you're looking at the
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 5: better team focused, I don't know. I mean, this game,
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 5: there are conflicting factors in this one. I'm all over
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 5: the place with my mind today. 34.5 is the number here.
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 5: 62% of tickets on NC State, 54% of the cash
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 5: on Richmond. again, I don't really want to, so the
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 5: money is talking, the money is coming in a Richmond.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 5: It is a really low total. If you want to
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 5: take it, I would not, I would actually not lay
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 5: 34 and a half with a total of.
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 4: 50, 51.
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 5: Although the money seems to have driven the total up
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 5: towards the over there.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't do it though. I wouldn't lay that many
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 4: points with a total. That's not really that high like that.
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 4: So whatever, um, Anyway, yeah.
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, I shouldn't be talking about the FCS games.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 5: I usually don't because it's just too much for me
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 5: to cover, although I cover all of D1 and basketball, but.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 4: ETSU against UNC, maybe.
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 5: I mean... UNC, they're coming off beating... Well, I don't know,
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 5: because UNC didn't look.
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 4: No, no, no, no.
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 5: Well, oh, you're right, because UNC is coming back from Ireland, right?
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 5: Although they had a bye in there, right? I'll have
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 5: to look at it, but I don't want to start
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 5: looking at all the FCS games either, but... Yeah, I
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 5: don't think I'm going to be interested in that game.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 5: But if UNC is coming back from Ireland, but they
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 5: did have a week off, a bye, and they didn't
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 5: exactly look good in that game, even though they pulled
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 5: off an upset. UNC upset TCU, which was unexpected.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: So I guess you're right. It could kind of be
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 4: a letdown there.
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 5: But I'm not going to disagree with East Tennessee in
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 5: that game, but I don't think I really want it.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: The two actual FBS games tonight. I was considering Rutgers.
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 5: I had my eye on this. They're at My Guys
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 5: Boston College on ESPN2 here. This is going to be
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 5: BC's home opener, though. So a lot of times I
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 5: don't like to fade teams in their home opener. BC
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 5: was pretty bad against Cincinnati last week.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 5: I was hoping BC would have a close call because
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 5: they were an underdog. And you know Rutgers lost as
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 5: a huge favorite, and I like playing on teams that
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 5: look really bad as a huge favorite, and that was Rutgers.
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 5: So I still like Rutgers in this game, but I
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 5: don't think it's going to make the cut for me here.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 4: They might be focused, too, because it's an ESPN2 game.
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 5: A lot of times these home teams get up for
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 5: these games like this, especially BC, because Rutgers is considered
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 5: to be a better team than BC, although there is
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 5: a reason why BC is favored in this game, which
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 5: I'll talk about in a second. Not just that they're
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 5: at home, but yeah, BC, I mean, they still might
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 5: get up for it because they get to play against
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 5: a Big Ten team, and it's on TV, which I
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 5: think is a bigger deal than Louisville playing Villanova, you
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 5: know what I mean? BC, coming off a bad game.
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 5: But Rutgers, I think, is going to be more motivated
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 5: here because we know what they did. They lost to you.
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 5: We know what you did, bad boy. Rutgers, they lost
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 5: to UMass, man. I mean, Rutgers was like a 30-point
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 5: favorite in that game or whatever. That was one of
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 5: the biggest upsets of the week. You know they're probably
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 5: going to bounce back from that. They also have an
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 5: extra day because that game was on Thursday, remember. BC
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 5: played on Saturday, so Rutgers actually has a rest edge
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 5: in this game because they haven't played since Thursday. And
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 5: you know Everybody's been making fun of that game the
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 5: whole time. Really, really bad game for Rutgers there. Losing
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 5: to UMass is a huge favorite. You got to think
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 5: they're going to bounce back here, although they do have
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 5: USC up next, which is going to be a big game.
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: That's going to be their home conference opener.
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 5: But I still see Rutgers showing up, but I do
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 5: think BC is going to show up too.
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 4: And that's kind of the problem that I have with
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 4: this game.
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 5: I lean Rutgers, but I think both teams are going
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 5: to show up.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 4: Now, Rutgers....
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 5: This game was going to be about a pick-em price here,
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 5: but the reason why Rutgers is an underdog here is
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 5: because their quarterback, Lonergan, got hurt. And he was not
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 5: playing that well. He threw three picks in the game.
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 5: And then they brought in A.J.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: Sarassi. however, Sir Ace, um, is he an ace? I
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: don't know.
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 5: He came in and he was actually good at the
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 5: end of that game. Although of course it was against UMass.
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 5: BC is way better than UMass. Although UMass looks like
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 5: they might not be that bad this year. Um, they're
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 5: at least not going to be the worst. I think
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 5: they're not going to be the worst team in FBS.
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 5: Like there were last year. They're already not because they
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 5: beat Rutgers.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 4: So there you go.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 5: Um, But although that was one game, but, you know,
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 5: week two, everybody's going to overreact to week one.
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 5: But I believe Sirachi is going to play. It sounds
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 5: like a sauce, Sirachi. Let me put some of that
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 5: Sirachi on my eggs.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 4: Here, man. He's going to play.
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 5: So it's an injured player theory spot for Rutgers. You
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 5: know I talk about that, the injured player theory spot.
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 5: I talk about it more in professional.
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: Football, though.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 5: Um, but when it happens in college too, you know,
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 5: when your starting quarterback goes down, the team usually is
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 5: going to step up their game a little bit extra
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 5: for that next game. Cause they know they have to
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 5: play a little bit harder. And if they like this guy,
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 5: they're going to try to rally behind him and back him.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 5: So Rutgers might play, play well. And he was better
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 5: than Lonergan in the game. I mean, he didn't throw
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 5: any picks at least. And he was actually a little
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 5: bit better average yards per pass, uh, completion percentage.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 4: You know, whatever.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 5: So way better quarterback rating, QBR, which is different than
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 5: quarterback rating.
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah. Whatever.
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 5: So I do like Rutgers in this game. This is
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 5: close to being a play for me. I might put
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 5: it in my pick seven or whatever because I don't
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 5: know how many options I'm going to have there.
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: This might be one of the better ones. But yeah,
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 4: I like Rutgers here.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 5: The money is slightly towards BC, 59% of tickets, 60%
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 5: of the cash on them. But it looks like you
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 5: might be able to get a three and a half.
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 5: I would at least get three on Rutgers, but that's
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 5: what I would do. I would take Rutgers in this game.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 5: Nobody's going to want them after that horrendous performance. But
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 5: as I always say, a team that loses as a
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 5: huge favorite, they tend to bounce back. Plus you're getting
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 5: the injured player theory spot where they might play better
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 5: for that reason too and just rally here.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 4: Not sure.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's not going to make my card, I'll
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 5: tell you that. But, yeah, BC, I mean, BC still
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 5: might get up for it because it is their home opener.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 5: They were not good in their first game either. But
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 5: all things considered, I like Rutgers in that one.
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 4: And then the last game is a pretty good one, actually.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: It's the border.
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 5: I think they call this the border war. A couple
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 5: of different rivalries are called that. 23 ranked Missouri at
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 5: Kansas on Fox. Kansas, it's a little bit of revenge
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 5: for them because these teams played this rivalry, I think,
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 5: is every year. They played in Missouri last year, and
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 5: Missouri won the game. Or it might be a renewed
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 5: rivalry because both these teams, I think, used to be
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 5: in the Big 12. And now Missouri, oh, high and mighty.
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 5: They're in the SEC now in Kansas City. Kansas is
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 5: still in....
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 4: The Big 12.
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 5: So Kansas might play with a little bit of a
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 5: chip on their shoulder against Missouri. The public's going to
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 5: come in on Missouri because they're the ranked team. Both
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 5: teams looked really good in week one, but they both
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 5: obliterated a cupcake.
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 5: Missouri beat Arkansas Pine Bluff by a shit ton. And
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 5: Kansas beat Long Island.
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 4: Like, who cares?
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 5: Like, those are not FBS teams. They're not particularly good
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 5: FCS teams either, I don't believe. So you can't really
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 5: draw anything from that. Both teams look really good. Although
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 5: what you can draw... For both those teams scoring a
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 5: shit ton of points, the under might be worth a
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 5: look in this game because it is a hotly contested rivalry.
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 5: The teams might play this game closer to the vest
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 5: and more intensely on defense. And people are going to look,
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 5: nobody's going to want the under in this game because
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 5: both teams put up like 60, 50 whatever points in
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 5: the first game that they played. So nobody's going to
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 5: really want the under here. But these teams are playing
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 5: each other now. They're facing way better defenses than they
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 5: each faced in the first game. The Overs public, 83%
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 90% of the cash on the over. I
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 5: would lean under, especially because you're right on this key
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 5: number of 51.5. Now, under makes sense, but I do
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 5: also like Kansas in this game, and that might be
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 5: what I like better. The public is indeed coming in
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 5: on Missouri, 63% of the tickets on them. Kansas, like
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 5: I was saying, lost this game last year in Missouri,
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 5: so there might be a little bit of a revenge
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 5: angle or extra motivation on the Kansas side here. But
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 5: I also think Missouri's kind of overrated, man. They look
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 5: good against Arkansas Pine Bluff, but what does that really
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 5: tell us?
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 5: Both these teams do have new quarterbacks this year and whatever,
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 5: so both teams are going through some growing pains here,
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 5: so we can't really gauge much from both teams winning
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 5: easily against Cupcakes in week one. But Missouri's getting the
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 5: public action because they were the better team last year.
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 4: They're the ranked team.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 5: I think Kansas might be a little bit under the
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 5: radar here, though, and they're going to get up for it.
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 5: You know, it's a Friday night game, prime time. This
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 5: is going to be the biggest game on the slate.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 4: It's on Fox. It's on national TV.
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 5: You know, more people are going to watch this game
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 5: than they're going to watch Rutgers and Boston College, right?
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 5: This is going to be the most watched game of
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 5: the night, and it'll be the heaviest bet game of
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 5: the night because everybody likes football.
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 4: So you know.
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 5: I like playing against the public in games with big
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 5: betting handles, you know what I mean? So when there
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 5: are just a ton of bets and there's a ton
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 5: of money coming in on that particular game and the
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 5: public is one-sided enough on that game that that's kind
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 5: of where the money winds up being in that game
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 5: even though the real money is on the other side
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 5: potentially I like to look to fade the public in
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 5: games like that. I mean, I generally like to anyway,
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 5: but especially in high-profile games like that where you know
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 5: the handle is big and the books are more likely
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 5: to skew the number towards the favorite and they need
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 5: the underdog to come through. So I like that too.
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 5: And the money agrees with it, like I said. 63%
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 5: of tickets on Missouri, 68% of the cash on Kansas.
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 5: You can't get the 6.5 anymore, but 6.5, 5.5, there's
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 5: not a huge difference there.
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 4: It doesn't matter a whole lot.
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 5: It was never on that key number 7. And I
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 5: think there are some trends that support this too. Some
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 5: trends that support the under are like, I believe in
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 5: like week two ranked teams tend to go under the
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 5: total at a pretty high rate. And then I forget
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 5: what it was, but I was watching it. You can
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 5: go back and find it on Steve Merrill's video that
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 5: he did on this game on Twitter. his one of
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 5: his free videos that he did on wager talk he's
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 5: got some good stuff he had some trend that was
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 5: pointing towards kansas and i already forget what it was
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 5: though so i apologize you can go watch his video
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 5: for that type of stuff but yeah there was something
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 5: that i was like oh that is interesting uh there's
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 5: some trend that favors the underdog um in a spot
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 5: like this i don't know if it's just fbs ranked
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 5: versus unranked in week two something like that the unranked
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 5: Team tends to do really well.
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 4: Or maybe it's just home dogs. I forget what it is.
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 5: But, yeah, I like Kansas plus the points in that one.
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 5: That's going to do it, man. We got two plays today.
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're pretty ugly. One is the half a
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 5: run run line in the first five with the A's,
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 5: which it's a spot play. It's a rest advantage play.
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 5: And the pitching matchup actually favors them, believe it or not.
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 5: We got that, and we got Villanova in college football.
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 5: I'm venturing into FCS territory with that one. Villanova plus 36.5.
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 5: I think it's a really positive spot to play them
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 5: and a really negative spot for Louisville. It's the type
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 5: of spot you don't get that often in college football,
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 5: so I say we do that. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 5: Learn to Tote on Twitter and learn to Tote on Instagram. Like,
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 5: subscribe to the channel here, and you'll be notified when
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 5: I go live. We got to do the college football
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 5: weekly show, which is It always takes a lot out
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 5: of me, man. Way too much content during football season.
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know how much I want to venture into
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 5: the FCS stuff, although I do have one. I'm probably
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 5: going to give up one more play on an FCS
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 5: team at the very least. If you watch me and
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 5: you know what's going on, you probably already know what
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 5: it's going to be. I've got a few other plays
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 5: that I kind of like anyway this week, but we'll see.
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 5: I don't want to spray the board too much in
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 5: college football, though.
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 4: So we will see. I still have to handicap all
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 4: the rest of the games, too, to figure it out, really.
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 4: But I have a couple of plays. I think I
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 4: have two that.
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 5: I know for sure are going to make it for me,
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 5: but I don't know what else.
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 4: I don't want to have too much going on, but, um,
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 4: what else? Um, listen on audio.
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 5: The audio numbers have been doing well recently. So let's
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 5: keep those going. Uh, Spotify, Spreaker, Apple, tell everybody about it.
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 5: And of course, you know, comment on the channel here,
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 5: get this, this channel's numbers up as well. Um, Covered
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 5: in Uke is my Uke channel on YouTube.
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 4: Ukulele covers. I did another one yesterday.
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 5: It's not up on YouTube yet. I still have two
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 5: that I have to put up on YouTube. Patreon.com slash
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 5: LearnToTote if you want to support me that way. I
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 5: do have to get back to that and update the
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 5: Spotify Uke feed there and get some more content going there.
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 4: I apologize.
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 5: I always apologize for it, but I'm just not good
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 5: at that, man.
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 4: Let me see. What... I'm not good at focusing on
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 4: the Patreon. I don't know, man. Maybe I shouldn't have one.
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 4: But it's mostly about just supporting your boy.
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 5: And if you want to just, you know, tip me
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 5: in some way for giving out good plays here.
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 4: Although it hasn't been that good recently. What else we got?
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 5: The New York Giants G-Spot podcast. We'll figure out what's
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 5: going to happen. I talked to Ben, but it's going
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 5: to be, I guess, his birthday on that same day
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 5: on Sunday. So there may be a delay when we
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 5: really start that show.
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 4: But I talked to him yesterday about it.
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 5: So That's going to be a wait and see as
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 5: the Giants are playing on Sunday night, and he might
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 5: be out during the game. But got to let the
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 5: man celebrate his birthday, man.
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 4: And then what else?
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 5: Loser cast every Tuesday night. Yes, I knew I was
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 5: forgetting something. That's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 5: Let's kick off the weekend right with a couple of
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 5: plays here.
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 4: Peace. Hold on, not tonight.
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 2: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 2: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 2: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.