Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 159 - 11/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 159 - 11/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 159 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday, the work week is over.
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We got a huge weekend ahead here guys.
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Another massive weekend in the sports betting world and we got
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a lot to get to on today's pod. I usually, I always say there's
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a lot to get to, but there really is.
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I got a ton of games across all the different sports.
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I got a big Friday night ahead of us to discuss as well as a
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huge weekend. So for today I got a 5 pack
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including two bets in college football.
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I'll be honest guys, there's four games tonight.
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I could probably have bets on every side in total, but I tried
1:02
to be a little bit disciplined, trying to isolate not only the
1:05
games that have value or the games that have sharp moves and
1:08
fit our model, but also still have value because a lot of
1:10
these numbers are obviously sharp, but they've moved a lot.
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So are we on the right side? Maybe yes.
1:15
But are we getting the worst of the number?
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That's something that you kind of worry about.
1:18
But I'll give you my college football plays for tonight, a
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college basketball bet. I'm looking for revenge for this
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one team that led us down the other night to hopefully win
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tonight. And then also a play in the
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NHLA. Rest first tired, fading a team
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on the second leg of a back-to-back and an NBA.
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Low total that, hopefully. Will fly over for us or eek out
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and over, doesn't matter the margin.
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Then looking toward the weekend. I got a four pack of college
1:40
plays for you tomorrow, three of which we talked about earlier in
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the week 1. I just added today that caught
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my eye. It's got some late sharp action.
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And then we also have 4 bets on tap for the NFL.
1:50
Few of these. Really haven't talked about much
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this week. I noticed earlier in the week
1:54
there were some games I was kind of leaning on but wasn't really
1:57
sold on. Well, starting to kind of
1:59
crystallize the picture for the weekend.
2:00
So I got four in the NFL and then you know what we like to do
2:04
on a Friday, talk a little bit of.
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Biting. In the UFC now this fighter or
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biter who I will be playing doesn't have the tail of the
2:12
tape. He's not younger, he's not
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taller, he doesn't have the longer reach, but he's got a
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great fat split, great line move and one of my mentors when it
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comes to UFC, who I, I know quite well and is very, very
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sharp at UFC, he's got. A nice little quote here that
2:26
made me excited to sweat this guy.
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So a lot to talk about 5 pack today.
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We got four NFL for college and one UFC for the weekend.
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Before we dive in, little recap. Last night guys produced another
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winning night. Two straight winning nights.
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Three out of four winning days the last four days.
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Let's see if we can cap off the week on a hot note.
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But 3 and 2 + 0.37 units. Last night we had the Bengals
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come through, which was awesome. I was getting dicey.
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I was getting scared there because it got dicey.
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Bengals were up pretty much all game cruising, and then they
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kind of blow it late. They get down by 7, Ravens go
3:00
for two. I was hoping they would miss it,
3:02
that we would definitely cover, but they're up by 7.
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Joe Burrow has to score late. And thank you to Zach Taylor and
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the coaching staff for going for two.
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Bold move, didn't pay off. That was the right move to again
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have your your offense on the field to win the game instead of
3:16
going in overtime and losing. But the beauty of that play was
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they went for two. That means we were guaranteed to
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win our +6 or plus 6 1/2 and again.
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It could have gone overtime, 6 points, touchdown score.
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They don't kick the extra point. We could have pushed that
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technically. Maybe the Ravens come back and
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score with no time left. They could have lost by 7 going
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for two. Guaranteed that.
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Win, so shout out to the Bengals, even though losing
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covering the number. Had a great hit with Bucknell in
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college basketball as a obscure sharp line move.
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Had to go to overtime but got that one through and then the
3:48
Canucks late night gave us that winning night.
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With a good sharp Rd. line move, losers were App State really
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couldn't get much going offensively, couldn't stop a
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Nosebleed. And then Zay Flowers came up
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short in terms of his receiving prop.
4:01
Just couldn't really get that late, you know, yards after
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catch. But either way, guys 3 and 2 +
4:06
0.37 units. I will take that every time.
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Let's see if we can cap off the week with another winning day.
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So let's start off with some college football today.
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Again, I really like the board. I could give you a side in total
4:18
for all four games. But I try not to have too many
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bets because I've learned kind of the hard way when you have
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too many plays, that's the easiest way to lose and have a
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bad night and let the juice chip away at your winning.
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So let's be selective. But I'll give you a couple of
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bets that I'm I'm on right now. So first one, let's talk Iowa
4:36
and UCLA. This is number one your most
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heavily bet game of the night and that provides an opportunity
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to go contrarian. So going into it, Iowa six and
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three. They've won three of their last
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four. They just crushed Wisconsin 42
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to 10, easily covering as a three-point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, UCLA 3:00 and 5:00. But they have 1-2 straight just
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took down Nebraska 27 to 21 outright as a 7 1/2 point Rd.
5:00
dog. So what have you seen across the
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market here? Well, this game open Iowa -5
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1/2. Iowa is now up to -6 1/2.
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So Lions going to Iowa tells me some smart money at least at the
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open at the outset. Closer to 5 1/2.
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Laid it with Iowa. Push that number up.
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But here's where I'm not going to play Iowa.
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I'm going to go the other way. I'm going to buy low on UCLA.
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Now I'm going to wait and try to get a + 7 because you do have a
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bunch of books here that are juicing up Iowa minus 6 1/2 -,
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115. So I'm not going to call UCLAA
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sharp bet. To me, it's just a straight up
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contrarian value play. First thing is that on the one
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hand, if you're playing Iowa, yes, you're with the line move,
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but you're with the public getting the worst of the number
5:39
of the number. So UCLA to me is a value play.
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You are insanely contrarian. You're only getting 25% of
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spread bets. Heavily bet 9:00 game, most
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heavily bet game of the night on Fox.
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This is the top contrarian play of the night.
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You walk into the bars all across America tonight,
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everyone's sweating Iowa. So again, I want to be with
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UCLA. UCLA also has a really good bet
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split. They're only getting 25% bets,
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but nearly 40% dollars. So a little bit of low bets,
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higher dollars here. Also you have some correlative
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betting, kind of a, you know, regular or a, you know,
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relatively big dog, nearly A7 point dog with a very low total
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of 44 1/2. I was actually looking at the
6:17
under here. That was my lean on the total
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because it opened 45 1/2 got down to 44 1/2 and these two are
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these two teams are pretty slow in terms of pace of play.
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They're kind of at the bottom of the league.
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So the under was my lean, but I'm going to take the points
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with UCLA. It's the most heavily bet game
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of the night. It's not really sharp, but it's
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a value play. You know the true opener is
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closer to 5 1/2. We might be able to wait and get
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A7 low bets, higher dollars as well as a correlative betting
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kind of big dog low total. So that's my bet.
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If you give me a most heavily back game of the night with a
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home dog inflated, only getting 25%, I got to make that bet
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every time. So I'm going to take UCLA.
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I'm going to hold out for +7. If we can't get the seven, I'll
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take the 6 1/2. But again, wait that one out.
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It's a 9:00 game and it's getting juiced up like it may go
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to seven, but I'm taking the points with UCLA Next game.
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Late night sweat, 10:30 PM Eastern Time.
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New Mexico and San Diego State now might not be the most
7:11
interesting game. Both these teams are been pretty
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bad this year, but there's a very razor sharp line move so
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sharp I cut my finger was bleeding all over my my app here
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today when I put this one in. But New Mexico, San Diego State,
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New Mexico comes in three and six lost two straight just came
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up short against Wyoming 4945 lost outrate as an 8 point home
7:29
favorite. You know, San Diego State three
7:31
and five. They've also dropped two
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straight. They just got rolled by Boise
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5624 did not cover as a 24 1/2 Rd. point Rd. dog.
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So what do you see across the market here?
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Well, this game open San Diego State as a 3 1/2 point home
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favorite and the public says 2 bad teams, but San Diego State
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at home short number. Let's lay it with San Diego
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State. However, despite the Aztecs
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getting 75% of spread bets, this line is dropping toward New
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Mexico. New Mexico plus 3 1/2.
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They're now down to plus 2 1/2. Some shops are even down to +2.
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I was annoyed that I missed the key number on the three, but if
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you shop around, you might be able to find the hook on the
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plus 2 1/2. But that was a an angle there
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that kind of caught my eye a little bit.
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But they're contrarian. They're only getting 25% bets,
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but they're getting 55% dollars. So low bets, higher dollars,
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sharp reverse line move in their favor.
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The other angle here aside from the line move in the bet split
8:30
is you have a good conference dog, same conference built in
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familiarity levels, the playing field benefits the team getting
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points, but also the Lobos dog who can score system match.
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The big difference here, why I would assume this line is moving
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toward New Mexico is that New Mexico averages, you know, they
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don't have a great record. They're averaging 35 points per
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game. If you look at San Diego State,
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they're averaging 20 points per game.
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So the offense of New Mexico has been way better than San Diego
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State. So dog, who can score again,
9:00
keep pace, backdoor cover. That would be a feather in the
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cap of New Mexico. New Mexico also has a really
9:07
good rhythm projection here. Rhythm is predicting that New
9:10
Mexico should only be plus 1.5. So if we're still able to get,
9:15
you know, a 2 1/2 here, let me just double check.
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I want to make sure there's at least one book that is still
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offering the 2 1/2. It is, yeah.
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FanDuel still has plus 2 1/2 at -115 so again, shop around.
9:28
Make sure you can get that hook because a lot of other books are
9:30
down to two. But even at two 2 1/2, again,
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Rhythms got a 1.5. That's an edge hopefully that
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that we can take advantage of here.
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It looks like, by the way, that MGM is also at 2 1/2.
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So shop around again, Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.
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We would have loved the three, but that's gone.
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So I'm still going to go with that sharp money.
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Hopefully New Mexico wins this game out.
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Right now, that's the way this line is trending.
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But I'm going to take New Mexico, shop around.
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FanDuel bet MGM plus 2 1/2 along with UCLA.
10:01
We'll wait for the seven, if not 6 1/2.
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Keep on cruising. Let's go to some college hoops,
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college basketball. There's a huge slate today.
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There's over like 60 games, but there's one in particular that
10:12
caught my eye because it is a revenge play.
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That's right. Remember a few nights ago we had
10:17
San Diego let us down. They had multiple opportunities
10:20
to win at the end, they blew it. Well, another late game 10:00
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tonight and they're playing Boston University and this is an
10:28
opportunity to get some revenge and play San Diego.
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I'm going to go San Diego on this one guys, shop around.
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I got the toreros on the money line.
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So it's the money line play for me at -130 but the first thing I
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noticed about this one is it's an added game extra game game
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three O 654-930-6550 and the line is going towards San Diego.
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San Diego opened as a very short one point favorite.
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Some books even open San Diego like a pick em or even A1 point
10:57
dog. And now San Diego is up to -1
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1/2 -, 2. So again, obscure line moves,
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games that are not popular, games that are hard to find
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based on their 6 digit rotation number.
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If you notice a line move like here's the thing, throw away
11:11
contrarian value. These added game extra games are
11:13
too low bet, not enough public to go against.
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But we do have sharp moves that we can tail or follow.
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Because if wise guys have targeted this game, again, they
11:23
don't care if it's a big game, small game, they're going to bet
11:25
based on their edge. So it tells me when this game
11:27
will open closer to a pick em. Wiseguys said, hey, there's
11:30
value San Diego, we have San Diego to win this game.
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So San Diego's got the line move.
11:36
They also have a really good bet split on the money line. 82%
11:40
bets, 97% dollars. Again, they lost that last game
11:43
by one. I'm not going to mess around
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have and lay a 1 1/2 or two with San Diego, win by one or two and
11:49
I lose or push my bet. But the other angle here is kind
11:52
of a good schedule spot for San Diego because if you look at
11:55
Boston College, their first game a couple days ago was against
12:01
Northeastern in Boston. Now you got to go cross country
12:04
again, cross country flight East Coast to West Coast.
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You know, that's tough for anybody, especially, you know,
12:10
young kids who maybe not are not used to travel like that.
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And then if you look at San Diego, they're they're playing
12:17
their second game at home. Lost that first one against
12:19
Ryder, unfortunately because I was on them.
12:22
But second game at home and off a bad loss where you missed a
12:25
lot of opportunities. I think there's a motivational
12:28
edge here for San Diego to kind of avenge that bad loss.
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So it's really difficult travel for BU San Diego's at home
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sleeping in their own bed looking for revenge.
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And oh, by the way, Ken Palm has San Diego winning the game by 1.
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Not a huge edge, but that's why I'm going money line.
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But I popped open my Rhythm app again.
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Rhythm's got all these college basketball predictions for all
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the different tiny little schools.
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Another reason to download Rhythm.
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But Rhythm has 2 predictions. I have a Rhythm AI model and I
12:54
have a Josh model that I created and my Rhythm model says San
12:58
Diego should be -4.3 and my Josh model says San Diego should be
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-3.4. So even if you take the lower
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model again, Rhythm is predicting a three-point win or
13:09
more. We got a good schedule spot.
13:11
We're going to fade a wet East Coast team going West.
13:13
I'm going to go with San Diego to avenge their loss from us.
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The other night. I got the Toreros on the money
13:19
line at -130 now a play in the NHL as we walk through the
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Garden and kind of pick and choose which plays we're going
13:28
to make across all the different sports.
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But I'm going to focus on Pittsburgh and Washington.
13:33
There's only four games in the NHL tonight.
13:34
This is one of the most heavily bet games of the night and this
13:37
is a good opportunity to back the Caps.
13:39
I'm going to go Capitals in this one, guys.
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Capitals are having a really good year to start.
13:46
They are 9 and three. Pittsburgh struggled 5/8 and
13:49
two. These teams actually, I want to
13:52
say they played a little bit earlier in the season or maybe
13:55
this is their first game of the year.
13:56
Never mind looking at something else.
13:57
But anyway, first thing you notice sharp line move toward
14:00
Washington. Washington open this game.
14:03
Some shops were as low as like -150 -, 155 and you have seen a
14:08
massive steam move in favor of the Capitals.
14:11
The Capitals, if you look across the market now, they are upwards
14:14
of -185 -, 190. So just a huge steam move in
14:20
their favor. Again, shop for the best line,
14:23
the best line I found for this game, I want to say was -190
14:28
again, this has moved quite a bit here.
14:30
So as always, bet Chris first bet to win.
14:32
But FanDuel is still offering a -, 190.
14:34
It's a little bit pricey, but I think it's priced, you know,
14:38
relatively expensively for a reason.
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Capitals are in a good rest. First tired spot.
14:44
You look at Pittsburgh, they're on the second leg of a
14:45
back-to-back. They played last night and lost
14:47
5 to one. Capitals are rested.
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They last played a couple days ago on Wednesday.
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Pittsburgh's also playing their third game in four days.
14:56
Caps are playing their second game in four days.
14:58
So Caps are rested, ready to go. There's seven and one at home.
15:02
They played very well at home. Pittsburgh only two, five and
15:04
two on the road. Capitals have the better
15:06
offense. They're averaging 4.1 goals a
15:08
game versus 2.8 for Pittsburgh. They have the better defense
15:12
giving up two point 9A game versus 3.8 for Pittsburgh and
15:16
hopefully a advantage here in net.
15:18
You have Charlie Lindgren in get in goal for Washington.
15:22
He has a 2.7 O goals against. He'll be opposed by this rookie
15:26
Bloomquist who is has a goals against of 3.47.
15:31
Then we layer in all of these system matches.
15:35
The biggest one here favorite against the team on the second
15:38
leg of a back-to-back. Those teams are 24 and 10 this
15:41
year, 71 percent, 8% ROI. So I would have loved to have
15:45
gotten the Caps a little bit earlier.
15:47
You know, like -175 they're up to -190 you might be able to
15:51
shop around and find like a -, 187.
15:54
But I'm playing the Caps here. I think it's expensive for a
15:57
reason. And we have a really good system
15:58
match in line move. I'm on the Caps at -190 now a
16:03
play in the NBA, another big slate here in the NBA, 13 games
16:06
overall. But I'm going to focus on a very
16:09
low total, and I'm going to go over here.
16:12
So I'm looking at the New Orleans Pelicans and the Orlando
16:15
Magic. Now, first thing you're going to
16:17
notice about this one is really a just extremely low total.
16:21
So First off, with the side, Magic have seen a line move.
16:25
They open -5 Magic are now up to -6 but the total is what really
16:29
intrigued me because the total opened as high as 2/13 and 1/2,
16:33
and now the total is down to 211 or 211 1/2.
16:38
Shop around for the 211. So again, very clear here that a
16:41
lot of money early came in on the under.
16:43
But think of it this way. If this lands, you know, two
16:46
13212, you know, the the early, the early under batters win the
16:52
late over batters, you know, unless it's 211 would lose.
16:56
So it's not just the side you're on, but the price you're
16:58
getting. This is a good buy low system
17:01
match, though, because I got a lot of angles that are popping
17:03
here. One, if you look at totals on
17:05
the year, there are 68 and 54 to the over 56%.
17:10
But if you look at that low total over now we lost it the
17:12
other night. This was the play who who was
17:16
that on? Oh, is the Clippers in the
17:17
Philadelphia 70 or Sixers, I believe.
17:21
But same system is 7 and one this year, 88%.
17:26
It's 59% with a 13% ROI since the start of last year.
17:30
Oh, by the way, it's also a non conference over.
17:32
So Pelicans and Magic from the Eastern Conference and Western
17:35
Conference, they don't play each other very often.
17:38
You see totals go over at a higher rate in non conference
17:41
games because of the lack of familiarity.
17:43
You really don't know how to match up defensively.
17:45
Non conference overs this year are 22 and 1658%.
17:49
It's a relatively short spread, 6 point spread.
17:52
So hopefully it's competitive back and forth.
17:53
We get some scoring here. I noticed Orlando is kind of
17:57
quick. They're #13 in terms of pace,
18:00
New Orleans is number 16 in terms of pace.
18:02
So both kind of top half, quicker teams up and down the
18:05
court, more possessions, hopefully benefit scoring.
18:08
But New Orleans is also very bad defensively.
18:11
They are #29 in defensive efficiency.
18:14
And then the cherry on top for me here, guys, rhythm, rhythm
18:17
system matches on this game. Rhythm has two models for me.
18:20
One says the total should be 213.8.
18:23
The other says it should be 214. So if we get closer to that
18:26
rhythm number, we can buy low and play that that over 211.
18:31
Shop around. Caesar's right now is offering a
18:34
211. That's your best price.
18:35
I got over 211. But you do have a lot of shops
18:38
that are 212 or 211 1/2. So as always, make sure you get
18:42
that best price. But I'm going to go buy low over
18:45
211 Pelicans Magic. So Pels Magic over 211 caps -190
18:51
San Diego money line and college hoops -130 and then UCLA hold
18:55
out for A7 in New Mexico. Try to get that 2 1/2.
18:58
Now over to the weekend card, because there are lots and lots
19:02
and lots of games here to choose from, but I'm going to try to
19:05
focus in college on really the most heavily bet games and
19:08
sharpest line moves that I've noticed.
19:10
So First off, Georgia and Ole Miss should be a great game.
19:15
That's your most heavily bet game of the weekend.
19:17
This is a 3:30 PM Eastern Time game.
19:20
First thing I notice about this one is that everybody seems to
19:24
be liking Georgia. They're saying this line is way
19:27
too short. We should play Georgia in this
19:29
one. I get it.
19:30
Georgia comes into this one ranked second in the country.
19:34
There's seven one, so it makes total sense.
19:37
But if you look at the way the market has reacted, the markets
19:40
pretty sharp on Ole Miss Georgia is getting 86% of spread bets
19:45
most heavily bet game of the weekend.
19:47
Also one of the most lopsided Georgia open this game as high
19:51
as a 6 1/2 early favorite that quickly got down to like 4 now
19:56
down to 3. Some shops even now down to 2
19:59
1/2. So this line is continuing to
20:02
move toward Ole Miss even though everybody and their mother is
20:05
playing. Georgia tells me that Ole Miss
20:07
is a really sharp bet here this weekend.
20:09
There would be a dog who can score system match 42 points per
20:12
game. They're just a straight up great
20:14
contrarian play, but also have that sharp reverse line
20:17
movement. This is a bet for me on Ole
20:20
Miss. I will mention our friends at
20:23
Rhythm have Ole Miss predicted plus 2.8.
20:26
So again, at 2 1/2, my goal for this one guys is, is can we hold
20:31
out for a three? I'm looking right now if there
20:35
are any. Let me just double check here to
20:38
see if there are any threes because really a lot of the
20:41
smart money came in at 3 or better.
20:44
At this point, you're kind of need Ole Miss to win the game.
20:47
That not because you missed the key number, but the one that I'm
20:50
noticing for this one. Let me just double check.
20:54
Mostly 2 and a halfs. I thought there was one book
20:58
that might be hanging a three. Let me just double check right
21:02
now. Doesn't look like it.
21:04
Most are 2 1/2. Some are 2 1/2, though.
21:06
Juiced up toward Georgia -2 1/2 -, 115.
21:10
So now that you're kind of in no man's land and you're just a
21:13
little toward Georgia, I'm going to wait between now and 3:30
21:16
tomorrow and try to hold out for a + 3.
21:18
If it doesn't get up to three, I will take the 2 1/2 because it's
21:21
just so sharp. On the other hand, it's like,
21:24
hey, why aren't the books offering a three?
21:26
Maybe that's even more telling. But I got to play Ole Miss here.
21:30
Everyone's on Georgia, line keeps falling.
21:32
Ole Miss hold out for a three. If not, you can maybe even buy
21:36
it up to three if you wanted like a juiced up 2 1/2 -, 115
21:40
Georgia, you could take Ole Miss, you know, plus 3 -, 120
21:44
ish. But I'll hold out for the three.
21:46
I'd consider buying it up. If not, I'll go 2 1/2.
21:48
But I got to go Ole Miss in this one.
21:51
Next one that caught my eye, Utah.
21:53
I fully admit I bet against BYU multiple times this year and
21:56
they've made me look pretty stupid.
21:58
But here's one more time that we can bet against BYU.
22:03
Now going to this one, BYU has been great.
22:05
They're 8 and O the ranked 9th. Utah has been disappointing four
22:09
and four. They've lost four straight.
22:10
But here's where I think you got to stay true to what the market
22:13
is telling you. BYU is a very obvious player.
22:17
Public says this line is way too short.
22:19
BYU is getting across the market.
22:22
Let me just double check they are getting, let me just pull
22:30
this up. They are getting 81% of spread
22:34
bets. So a very lopsided played toward
22:36
BYU. But just like Georgia, Ole Miss,
22:38
the lines going to Utah, it's going toward the contrarian side
22:41
this game open BYU -4 1/2 and now you're seeing this line down
22:45
to 3 1/2 or even 3. Now you may have been able to
22:49
jump on a better number earlier this week, but at this point,
22:53
can you get the hook on the 3 1/2?
22:56
That's the goal here. And I am seeing, I want to say
22:58
one book is offering 3 1/2, maybe DraftKings.
23:03
If not, I'll take the three. But I think you might want to
23:06
hold, hold out if maybe creeps up to 3 1/2.
23:08
If not, again, I'll take the three.
23:10
But everyone is playing BYU, the lines going to Utah.
23:13
This would be an unranked versus ranked opportunity.
23:16
I was also reading about how a lot of the kind of like the luck
23:19
ratings and regression are saying BYU is kind of
23:21
outperforming what the statistics say.
23:24
So maybe you finally get some negative regression on a team
23:26
that's had like every single break go their way.
23:29
But then also our friends at Rhythm, even though maybe you
23:32
can't get the four 3 1/2 anymore, our friends at Rhythm
23:35
say Utah should be only plus 1.9.
23:38
So that's a pretty good angle there.
23:39
I have to take the points, but it's a 1015 game.
23:42
Everyone's playing BYU lines going to Utah.
23:45
Hold out for a 3 1/2 hook. If not, I'll go +3 with Utah.
23:49
Next one for you, Kansas. Another game we talked about
23:52
earlier this week, but it's very similar.
23:55
This is kind of this, the play that I love, your contrarian
23:57
home dog with a line move. Matches with Ole Miss, matches
24:00
with Utah, and also matches now with Kansas.
24:03
So this one opened Iowa State only laying 3, which was kind of
24:07
notable because again, shouldn't Iowa State maybe be a bigger
24:11
favorite? They're seven and one ranked
24:12
17th, but they open -3 or even 3 1/2 now.
24:17
They're down to three or even 2 1/2 now.
24:19
Shop around, there's a lot of two and a halfs.
24:20
I took Kansas +3 at Bet MGM. That's still available today,
24:24
but that would be a unranked first ranked opportunity.
24:27
It also doesn't make any sense. Kansas is 2 and 6, Iowa State 7
24:31
and one, yet the line is so short and it's moving toward
24:33
Kansas. Seems fishy.
24:35
Jayhawks also are a rest first tired play.
24:38
They're coming off a buy where whereas Iowa State played last
24:42
week. So we've seen that that line
24:44
move in favor of Kansas even though again, bad record and
24:48
Publix all over Iowa State. So shop around.
24:50
I got the +3 at Bet MGM Kansas again, only 16% bets but 37%
24:57
money. And then last one, the one that
24:59
I added late, Boston College. I'm playing BC here.
25:03
Boston College is at home against Syracuse.
25:05
This one's notable because Syracuse comes in six and two.
25:09
BC is four and four. BC is lost three straight.
25:14
Hughes is 1/4 or five. Yet Boston College is favored
25:18
and has become more of a favorite.
25:20
So what's going on here? This looks fishy in favor of the
25:22
Eagles. Boston College opened around a
25:25
pick a short -1 now BC is up to -2 so lines going to BC even
25:32
though tickets are pretty much split. 5050 public doesn't know
25:35
where to go here. But again, 5050 a line shouldn't
25:38
move at all yet we're seeing it go to BC.
25:40
The money line is what interested me.
25:42
The money line split 47% bets but 80% of money is on BC.
25:47
So I money line BC shop around. I want to say I got them at
25:51
around -125 it's a buy low sell high.
25:56
BC has a better defense. 22 points a game allowed versus 28.
26:01
Cuse is also coming off an overtime game, whereas BC is
26:04
coming off a bye. So a good rest first tired play
26:07
on BC. And oh, by the way, our friends
26:09
at Rhythm, they're predicting BC -3.1.
26:13
So this looks like kind of a sharp bet here to back the BC
26:17
Eagles. So I'm going Boston College
26:19
again, got around -130 So Ole Miss try to get the three or
26:23
wait for it. Utah plus 3, Kansas +3 and BC
26:28
money line. Now a few bets in the NFL for
26:31
this weekend. Couple that caught my eye.
26:33
First one I'm going to look at what do I got here, Patriots, my
26:38
Patriots. That's right as I'm holding that
26:40
under 4 1/2 win total. They can lose again, but can you
26:43
cover this number? I'm going to take Patriots +6 on
26:46
the road against Chicago. This is also a little bit of a
26:49
windy under system match if you like the under 38 1/2.
26:52
But I like the angle toward boss, toward the New England
26:55
Patriots. Drake May against Kale Williams,
26:57
Chicago open this game -7 and Chicago is getting a majority of
27:01
bets. 57% of bets are on Chicago, yet this line is down
27:06
to six. So let's flip it the other way.
27:08
Patriots are only getting 4 out of 10 bets, but they've moved
27:11
from +7 down to +6. So why is the line going toward
27:14
New England if the majority of the public is on?
27:17
Chicago tells me the Patriots got some smart money here.
27:21
They would match quite a few systems.
27:23
One that we love, our Rd. dogs getting 4 1/2 points or more,
27:27
that's 61% against the spread this year.
27:30
Dogs getting six or more is 67% ATS.
27:34
You're also a correlative betting dog, low total.
27:36
So your dog getting six in a game with a very low total of 38
27:40
1/2. No, by the way, rhythm has two
27:44
angles here for me. One says the Patriots should
27:46
only be plus 4 1/2. The other one says they should
27:49
only be plus 0.3. So even if you take the four and
27:52
a half, we're getting 6 value there on New England.
27:55
Now shop around. I noticed that FanDuel is
27:57
offering plus 6 1/2 on New England, so I jumped on that one
28:01
with the hook. Maybe the Patriots lose by
28:03
three, who knows. I hope it'll win just for my win
28:06
total. But +66 and a half if you have
28:09
FanDuel looks like a sharp Rd. dog, and that big dog system
28:13
match has been pretty good. So it reminds me a little bit
28:15
about a little bit in terms of the Bengals last night as a kind
28:20
of big Rd. dog. So give me Patriots +6 and half
28:23
of FanDuel. Next one for you.
28:25
I'm gonna go Jets. Yep, I've been playing The Jets
28:29
quite a bit this year. They finally won for me, I think
28:31
for the first time all year against the Texans in a epic
28:34
fade. The trendy dog play.
28:36
But I like them this weekend against Arizona.
28:38
Dog to fave line move. You open this one.
28:40
A lot of shops for Arizona -1 we've now flipped to jets -1 1/2
28:45
even -2 so the line is going toward The Jets.
28:48
They're only getting 48% of bets so public is actually split or
28:52
even slightly Cardinals. Yet line is flipped dog to fave
28:55
in favor of The Jets. There would be a non conference
28:59
system match so lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
29:01
quote the better team. I money line The Jets again, not
29:04
going to mess around. I'm I'm a money line short
29:06
favorite guy. If you haven't noticed yet.
29:08
Once you get clipped laying a 1 1/2 and they win by 1, then you
29:12
might see the light as well, but it's kind of fishy.
29:15
Jets are three and six, Cardinals are 5 and 4.
29:19
Yet the lines going to The Jets. One big angle is rest first
29:22
tired. You had The Jets play on
29:24
Thursday night, the Cardinals played on Sunday.
29:27
So big rest rehab again. Rogers have been banged up.
29:31
This is again a a good game plan and and rest in rehab.
29:34
Injuries advantage for The Jets. Oh, by the way, our friends at
29:38
Rhythm say Jets should be -3.1. So that kind of coincides with
29:43
that move toward The Jets. And here's a stat I wanted to
29:46
give you a road favorite straight up on the money line.
29:48
36 and 1373 percent, 16% ROI. So I'm going JETS, jets, jets,
29:54
Jets. I got them at Was it on the
29:57
money line? I want to say it was -125 yeah
30:01
-125 next one for you. This is an 8 broke, don't fix a
30:04
play. I'm going to go under Tennessee
30:08
LA Chargers. So this total open around 38.
30:11
Now it has gotten up to 39 or 38 1/2.
30:16
I think that was because Will Levis is expected to play.
30:18
So Levis slight improvement over Mason Rudolph.
30:21
But if you remember last week we played the Chargers under
30:25
against the Browns. Same kind of thing happened
30:27
where the total ticked up a little bit when he went from
30:32
Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston.
30:35
I'm OK with that because the style of play that Harbaugh
30:38
instills in his team leads to a lot of unders.
30:40
The Chargers are the number one under team in football, 7:00 and
30:44
1:00 to the under. They're the 26th slowest team in
30:47
terms of pace of play and I got a lot of system matches here on
30:50
the under. If you look at when the total is
30:53
3040 or less, the under 55% last two years, you also have a good
31:00
bet split. Only 47% bets, but 58% dollars
31:04
on the under and you know, Chargers are favored by 7 1/2.
31:07
Is this a, you know, 24 to 10 game, something like that.
31:11
So I'm going to go under Tennessee and Chargers played it
31:14
last week. I'm going to play it again.
31:16
Chargers 7:00 and 1:00 to the under.
31:17
I got Tennessee and Chargers under 39.
31:21
Next bet here for you guys. I fully admit it's gross.
31:24
It could be extremely painful, but I got to play it.
31:28
I'm going to go Houston Texans at home against Detroit.
31:31
Sunday Night Football should be a good match up here.
31:34
Do you want to get in front of the freight train that is the
31:37
Detroit Lions? Not really, but I was looking at
31:40
the bet splits. Detroit's getting 87% of bets
31:44
Sunday Football extremely heavily back game.
31:46
Great contrarian value on Houston and I'm not going to
31:49
call Houston. You might be able to get a + 4
31:52
with Houston. They open that +3.
31:54
Now it's up to 3 1/2. It looks like it's going to 4
31:57
right now. You can get four at ESPN bet.
31:59
So I took Houston +4, but they're only getting 13% of
32:03
bets. They're not sharp, but they're a
32:04
contrarian value play. Rhythm also says this should be
32:09
around a pick em game. Another angle I had said it
32:11
should be plus 3.2. So some value there, but it's
32:15
your number one can train play the week.
32:16
Everyone's playing Detroit. I know they look unstoppable
32:19
guys, but can Houston put up a fight?
32:21
Can you lose by a field goal? I'm going to play, I'm going to
32:24
play Houston here as a primetime dog.
32:26
Hopefully that can bark for us. So I got Houston hold out for a
32:29
four or ESPN bet has it now I got Houston +4.
32:33
Now to finish up the pod, let's look at UFC.
32:35
A little bit of biting in the arena, one that jumped out to
32:39
me. And again, for those who are new
32:41
to the UFC, get ready for one of the most epic sweats you're ever
32:45
going to see. But my model is really matching
32:49
on one guy in terms of the data, not as much as basically the
32:53
tail of the tape. So I landed on Charles Radtke.
32:57
RADTKE, I got him at -165 Now I like Charles Radke because good
33:03
bet split. He's only getting 43% bets, but
33:06
63% money. He opened around -155 now he's
33:10
up to -165 S lines going in his favor.
33:13
He's got low bets, higher dollars.
33:15
Now here's the thing, he's 34. His opponent's 31.
33:19
He's 5 foot 9. His opponent is 6 foot, he's got
33:23
a 72 inch reach. His opponents got a 75 inch
33:25
reach. So you guys know, or maybe you
33:27
don't if you're new to the pod, but I want fighter who's
33:30
younger, taller and has a longer reach.
33:32
Charles Radke has none of those that I don't like that that's
33:35
not good, but he's got the line move and he's got the bet splits
33:39
and he's also got some other angles here.
33:41
Much better striking accuracy, 52% versus 43%.
33:45
He's much better in terms of protecting himself, absorbing
33:48
4.21 or his, sorry, his opponent absorbs 4.21 significant strikes
33:53
per minute. He only absorbs 3.1 and then
33:56
also he's got better power. I was reading about how he lost
34:00
three straight and or sorry, his opponent has lost three straight
34:03
and it's maybe on the downturn. But then what I was also like to
34:07
do is I like to reach out to my buddy Gamble and Lu Lufa Nicaro,
34:10
who I work with a Visen who's a really sharp guy, the sharpest
34:14
guy I know at UFC. And every Friday I give him like
34:17
3 or I tweet him, I DM him like 3 or 4 fighters and say, hey,
34:20
what do you think about these people?
34:21
Some say he sometimes he says, oh, I agree, sometimes says, oh,
34:24
I'm going the other way. But we both landed on Radke and
34:28
I'm like I texted IDM Blue. I said Radke's older, shorter
34:32
and shorter each. I don't like that, but good bet
34:34
splits in line move. And here is what he replied to
34:37
me. The other kid who is what is his
34:41
name? Shiman, What is his name?
34:45
Hold on, let me just pull this up for you.
34:46
Where are we at? Red Key?
34:54
Semel's burger. Matthew Semel's Burger.
34:57
This is what Gamble and Lew said about Semel's burger.
34:59
Other kid has tall man disease and as a pure striker, Radke
35:04
grappled middle weight fighter Anders who weighed 200 when they
35:08
grappled in 1-2 rounds before he gassed against such a huge guy.
35:11
He's a Pitbull. So has anyone heard tall man
35:14
disease? Maybe this guy's just like too
35:16
tall and lanky and maybe that's a detriment.
35:19
But if gamble and little likes Radke and we have a good sharp
35:22
low bets, higher dollars fade, the trendy dog reverse line move
35:24
bet split, that's good enough for me.
35:26
So I'm going to go Radke on the money line to win this bite at
35:30
-165 So that about does it for a huge episode.
35:35
Man, we got to call these like the the mega pods here on
35:38
Fridays as we got a lot to talk about going into the weekend.
35:41
But anyway, this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up
35:45
and I start by asking a favor of you.
35:47
Could you please do me a solid and give this podcast a five
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Again, if you enjoy the pod, let me know you that you appreciate
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That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
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If you want to recommend it to a friend, that would be great as
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well. But please, if you if you see
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the value of this pod, help me grow the pod five star review
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and tell a friend. Secondly, if you enjoy the style
36:20
of betting breakdown, looking at what the market is telling us,
36:23
looking at how lines are moving, where the percentages are at,
36:26
where the best splits and the system matches are lighting up.
36:29
If that style of betting has appealed to you, you see the
36:31
value of it. You want to learn more about
36:34
data-driven betting. Guess what?
36:35
I wrote a book on data-driven betting.
36:38
Just go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
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Sports Betting. Pick one up for you or a friend
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or buddy of yours. Holidays are coming up.
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It makes a great easy stocking stuffer.
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I hate shopping for people. Boom, 20 bucks or less to get
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the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
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I would argue it's much better than a flannel shirt or a new
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pair of socks. But anyway, it's got everything
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I've learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
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they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
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action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
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for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
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Chapters on all the major sports, all included in the
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Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
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So pick one up and bring it to the book.
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I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
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Secondly, we got another huge weekend ahead here guys.
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If you haven't done it yet, it's now time you're a little late,
37:23
but still better late than never to go sign up for both rhythm
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and juice Reel 7 day free trials for both to my favorite sports
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juice reel, great for their Robo Jackson best bet picks that come
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Both are great apps here to add to your sports betting
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data-driven toolkit. So please go sign up for both
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and they help me win. I'm sure they're gonna help you
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win and please sign up in this particular way.
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Click those custom links that are located in the bio
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unveils a big weekend card. OK, Scroll below that.
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You can go sign up for both using those custom links.
38:28
Oh, I need a break. There's been a long pod, guys, I
38:30
got to catch my breath. But anyway, we're pretty much
38:33
wrapping it up. I'll start by saying first,
38:35
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
38:38
Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
38:41
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plainridge
38:44
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
38:47
Massachusetts, around the desert where the true grinders get
38:50
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest
38:53
juice possible is found the South Point.
38:55
So in sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium swimming
38:57
pool at Circa, when you cash a big ticket, you're going to show
39:00
me some nice winners from last night.
39:01
Show me a Bengals plus the points a Bucknell and overtime a
39:06
Canucks bet Guess what First one's on me, next one's on you
39:09
were going to post about the book sweat sharp contrarian
39:11
plays all night long. So wish you the best luck
39:14
everyone. My parting words as always, stay
39:16
sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public, place
39:18
yourself on the side of the house.
39:19
Always be with the smart money never against it.
39:22
Will smart money when every time?
39:24
Of course not. Nothing is a locker guarantee,
39:26
but consistently long term, if you stick to that model, if you
39:29
always place yourself on the sharp side, you're going to win
39:32
between 55 to 60% of the time. So that's how we always play the
39:35
long game when it comes to data-driven betting.
39:38
But of course, we can do that against the public, with the
39:41
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get some closing
39:44
line value. If we can do that consistently,
39:46
we're going to be successful sports betters.
39:48
So have a fantastic Friday night and an even better weekend.
39:51
Also, I'll remind you guys Sunday bright and early.
39:54
I guess not that bright and early, but 11:00 AM Eastern
39:56
Time. I'll be once again Co hosting
39:59
the rhythm Sunday sweats live stream, so hope to see you guys
40:02
there download the rhythm app. You can follow along when we go
40:05
through all the sweats, but have a fantastic night everyone have
40:09
a great weekend. We back at it on Monday for
40:12
episode 160 of the all systems go sports betting podcast
40:16
powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
40:19
great night.