Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + A Damaging Story That Could Upend The Kansas Senate Race

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Chuck’s Commentary - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + A Damaging Story That Could Upend The Kansas Senate Race · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the Chuck Toddcast. Yes,
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• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Dynastic Sports History podcast with J.A. Adande. He and I
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: have a tremendous conversation about Alabama football with the man himself.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: The only person other than Nick Saban you could call Mr.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Alabama football that's living today, and it is Paul Feinbaum.
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  Speaker 1: It was a tremendous conversation. You definitely will, if you're
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  Speaker 1: a college football fan or a fan or a history
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: of college sports or you just love Alabama football, you're
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  Speaker 1: going to love this conversation. Yes, even me, even me,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: this anti-SEC Miami Hurricane fan, did my best to compartmentalize
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  Speaker 1: my own personal venom with how the SEC sometimes wants
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: to velvet rope off college football for themselves. I think
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  Speaker 1: we do a good job giving Alabama its due there.
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  Speaker 1: But I'm coming in tonight. We're actually taping. It's right
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  Speaker 1: after our live stream that we had on the New
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Hampshire primary. So I want to start with there. And look,
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  Speaker 1: most of my Wednesday episodes, at least between now and November,
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  Speaker 1: are going to be very campaign heavy. What's happening on
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: the trail? Plus, I have my top five list. The
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Blue Wave, Blue Tsunami Test is what the top five
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: list is about. You'll have to check it out to
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: get more details there. And of course, I take your question.
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  Speaker 1: But let me begin with what, if anything, we learned
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  Speaker 1: out of New Hampshire. And I think the big thing
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  Speaker 1: is that the establishment got its way. And they did so, frankly,
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  Speaker 1: rather comfortably. Chris Pappas, who's basically been the Democratic nominee
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: in waiting ever since he announced and the field was
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  Speaker 1: relatively cleared. He helped clear it. Other people cleared it
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  Speaker 1: for him as well. There was no doubt that Democrats
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  Speaker 1: wanted to try to minimize the risk of losing this seat. Republicans, meanwhile,
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  Speaker 1: found themselves the best possible candidate they could get in
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  Speaker 1: this environment. They got somebody with the last name of Sununu. No,
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  Speaker 1: not the governor. But the former senator, John Sununu, and
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  Speaker 1: my friend Jeffrey Skelly noted that if John Sununu does
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  Speaker 1: win this Senate seat, it will be an 18-year gap,
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  Speaker 1: the largest gap really in the modern era between service
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: time in the United States Senate. John E. Sununu served
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  Speaker 1: one term in the Senate, 2002, where he was recruited
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  Speaker 1: to primary an incredibly vulnerable incumbent at the time, Bob Smith.
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  Speaker 1: The primary worked. Sununu won the primary, and then he
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  Speaker 1: goes on to defeat Gene Shaheen, who was the sitting
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  Speaker 1: governor at the time, for that Senate seat in 2002.
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  Speaker 1: Six years later, there's a The challenger won the rematch.
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  Speaker 1: That doesn't always happen. A lot of times in the
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Senate rematches, the losing candidate not only comes up short,
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  Speaker 1: but usually comes up, usually loses by a larger margin
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  Speaker 1: than they lost the first time. Paul Wellstone, Rudy Boschwitz
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  Speaker 1: is my favorite example of that. If you want to
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  Speaker 1: go down into the history of those election results. But
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  Speaker 1: Shaheen won the seat back from Johnny Sununu in 2008,
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  Speaker 1: and she's served in it ever since. Interestingly, her first
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: reelection was against Scott Brown, who was by then the
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  Speaker 1: former senator from Massachusetts. He got the nomination in 2014.
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  Speaker 1: It was a fairly competitive race, but she survived in
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  Speaker 1: a Republican-leaning year. And then Scott Brown wanted to run
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  Speaker 1: again when this seat opened up, and Republicans decided that
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: they did not want to get behind his candidacy, so
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: they went and found themselves a Sununu. And so here
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: we are, and John Sununu won by a bigger margin
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  Speaker 1: than Chris Pappas did in his primary. Pappas had a
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  Speaker 1: progressive primary challenger who did not have much money. had
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  Speaker 1: no national support. And that's the most interesting aspect of,
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  Speaker 1: it's sort of like the dog that didn't bark in
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire and the progressive dog didn't bark. And I
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  Speaker 1: think it had a lot to do with presidential candidates
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: not wanting to alienate the Shaheen machine. right? And so
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  Speaker 1: the Shaheen machine was basically behind Pappas. The Shaheen machine
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  Speaker 1: has a candidate in the first congressional district, the district
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  Speaker 1: that Pappas is vacating. And Jean Shaheen's daughter ran in
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  Speaker 1: that race. And certainly there was a lot of effort
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  Speaker 1: to eke her out into that primary. And so it
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  Speaker 1: is interesting that so many outside groups didn't play in
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  Speaker 1: this race. And as James Pindell Boston Globe reporter, a
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  Speaker 1: longtime New Hampshire reporter. In fact, back when I got
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  Speaker 1: to know him, he worked for something called Politics NH,
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  Speaker 1: really is sort of the New Hampshire expert. And, you know,
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  Speaker 1: he looked at it as if he were assessing the
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  Speaker 1: progressive movement, that they really dropped the ball on this one.
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  Speaker 1: They had an opportunity. But, you know, this has been
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: it's been interesting. You know, the the progressive progressives have
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: had a, you know, Bernie Sanders is one the New
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  Speaker 1: Hampshire primary twice, but the progressive movement has not been
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  Speaker 1: able to either use that momentum to build off of
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  Speaker 1: it in any way. I mean, the most progressive member
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  Speaker 1: of the delegation they've had in sort of this century
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  Speaker 1: was Carol Shea Porter, who represented one of the two
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: congressional districts. But it is, the left has been sort
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  Speaker 1: of muted and it's always been kind of muted. And
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  Speaker 1: it goes back to the fact that Democrats couldn't win
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  Speaker 1: in New Hampshire for an ice age. And then 1996,
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  Speaker 1: Jeanne Shaheen goes from party operative, she cut her teeth,
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  Speaker 1: helping Gary Hart pull an upset in 1984 as one
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  Speaker 1: of his, the Shaheen machine was born at the 84
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  Speaker 1: New Hampshire primary when she essentially resurrected the Gary Hart
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  Speaker 1: campaign from the dead. And the legend was born then.
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  Speaker 1: And by 96, she had enough chits to actually win
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  Speaker 1: office herself. And she broke a near 100 year streak
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  Speaker 1: to become a Democratic elected governor there in New Hampshire.
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  Speaker 1: So She is the party. She created the modern Democratic Party.
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  Speaker 1: And there's always been an allergy inside that party. Don't
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  Speaker 1: go too far to the left. That's how New Hampshire
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Republicans have successfully elected very conservative statewide officeholders in the past.
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  Speaker 1: I think they have less luck with that now. The
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  Speaker 1: state really is a sort of a center left leaning state.
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  Speaker 1: If Democrats go too liberal, that's when a Republican can win.
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  Speaker 1: And these days, Republicans can't get too far to the right,
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  Speaker 1: or they struggle to carry that state, right? Donald Trump's
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: never carried New Hampshire, yet we still consider New Hampshire
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  Speaker 1: as part of the larger, most competitive part of the battleground.
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  Speaker 1: So I think the story of New Hampshire really is
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  Speaker 1: how the establishment really did work its magic in both
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  Speaker 1: sides of the aisle and kept the outsiders out, if
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  Speaker 1: you will. Certainly kept them at bay, kept the outsider
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  Speaker 1: money from being too involved here the way we've seen
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  Speaker 1: outsider money everywhere else. Now, the question is, how competitive
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  Speaker 1: is this race? I had a lot of fun with
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Jessica Taylor during our live stream. She is the guru
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: behind the Senate ratings for the Cook Political Report with
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: my friend Amy Walter. And we were doing, okay, what's
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: closer to toss-up? Nobody is saying New Hampshire Senate is
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  Speaker 1: a toss-up between Pappas and Sununu, but it's going to
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  Speaker 1: be a very competitive race. It's going to be a
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  Speaker 1: single-digit race. Probably decided, I think, somewhere in the four
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  Speaker 1: to six-point range. If it's closer, that means it's probably
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: been a better Republican night nationally. And if it's a
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  Speaker 1: little bigger, it then we'll know it was a better
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  Speaker 1: night nationally for the Democrats. But I think we're looking
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  Speaker 1: at a four to six point range. So we did this, okay,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: what's closer to toss up New Hampshire Senate or Kansas Senate? Oh,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: and then we did New Hampshire Senate or Nebraska Senate.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: And then we did New Hampshire Senate or Iowa Senate.
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  Speaker 1: And so when she did those orders, she had New
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Hampshire Senate, essentially much closer to, much closer, closer to
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: toss up than Kansas, closer to toss up than Nebraska,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: but Iowa is in her toss up category narrowly. Um,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: But New Hampshire, not there. So that's where she classifies
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire. I'm probably a little more bearish on it, though.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I don't want to discount the Sununu name. And I've
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  Speaker 1: shared with you, I've known John E. Sununu a long time.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: He is just a dude. I've gotten to know him.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: He's a big baseball card collector. And he's way into,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: for those of you who don't know, he collects all
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the pre-war, all the pre-1952 stuff. He's a pre-war collector.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: He loves those You know, if the set has a
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: T in front of it, he's collecting those. He one
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: time gifted me two Tops Venezuelan cards, which are these
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: very thin, it was printed on extraordinarily thin paper, but
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in Spanish and stuff. And just a fantastic little collector's
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: item if you care about these things. Yeah. In many ways,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: I always thought, you know, Johnson and his politics were
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: probably a little too conservative New Hampshire, but culturally he
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: was sort of the right kind of quirky. And I
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: say that as a compliment. But it's hard to see,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: you know, Kelly Ayotte is a Republican that has figured
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: out how to win that governor's race. But as we've discussed,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: it is easier to win a governor's race if you're
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: not from where the party, from where the state leans
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: than it is. a federal race where the Jersey color
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  Speaker 1: matters a lot. And the thing with Chris Pappas, his
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  Speaker 1: sin in the primary was he was not considered a progressive.
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  Speaker 1: He very much is, you know, he was getting hit
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: for votes that many Republicans supported in the House of Representatives.
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  Speaker 1: So he is ideologically well-suited. The question is, is he
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  Speaker 1: charismatic enough to hold it or does it matter, right?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Is it going to break through? Is this a race
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that is going to grab the attention of New Hampshire voters,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: and importantly, the New Hampshire independent voters. I'm a bit skeptical,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: which is why I think you're going to see, everybody
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: will acknowledge this is going to be close. It's kind
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: of like, frankly, how I feel about the South Carolina
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Senate race. I think it's going to be really close.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I think you're making a mistake if you totally ignore it.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I feel the same way about New Hampshire. You're making
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: a mistake if you totally ignore it. But eight times
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: out of 10, I think I know who's going to
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: win both races. But if you're talking, it's not you know,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: it is not a crazy result. It is not some total,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: it's a surprise, but not a shock if Sununu pulled
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: it off. And I'd feel the same way in South
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina if Annie Andrews upset Darlene Graham. I'd be surprised.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked, right? The ingredients, there's a lot
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: of the ingredients you need to pull an upset is
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: sitting there in South Carolina. So that's kind of, I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: put New Hampshire more in that category, that sort of,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: These are competitive races. The party that should win, is
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: favored to win, should win. But these are some pretty
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: good challenger candidates, so they shouldn't be ignored. But again,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I go back. It is really interesting to me how–
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: and this is what Pindell kept pointing out, which I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: think was a smart point, which is how people like
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: in that second tier of presidential candidate on the Democratic
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: side think Ro Khanna– I think Chris Van Hollen, I
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: think Chris Murphy didn't essentially go against the grain and
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: go against the establishment. Because here's a dirty little secret.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: The Shaheen machine's never getting behind a Ro Khanna. The
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Shaheen machine's never getting behind a Chris Van Hollen candidacy
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: or a Chris Murphy candidacy. So I kind of think
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: it would have been a free opportunity and it would
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: have allowed you to stand out in a way that
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: others didn't stand out. But again, I get it. No
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Democrat wanted to be on the wrong side. of the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Shaheen family, which may explain why progressives in general didn't
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: get the support in New Hampshire that I think perhaps
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: that voters might have been intrigued and open for. So
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: there's my quick little thing in New Hampshire. It does
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: not change my overall belief about where the national landscape is.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: It doesn't change anything I said. I still think the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: most likely scenario is some sort of fairly significant blue wave.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: The question is just how big can it get? You know,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: can it look closer to being big rather than closer
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: to being a mirage? Well, that's what we're going to
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: find out in the next eight weeks. And speaking of that,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: let me unload on a few more items in my notebook,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: my sort of Wednesday, call it the Wednesday campaign notebook.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: And I want to start in the state of Missouri
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: because I think we have a real sort of disenfranchising
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: of voter problems. now going on in Missouri? Because if
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: you want an example of how our political system can
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: make something that ought to be fairly simple, like voting,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: almost incomprehensibly complicated, do I have one for you? And
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the story has changed a lot just in the last
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: 24 hours. So right before the polls closed in New
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Hampshire on Tuesday night, the Supreme Court seemed to put
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: it to rest and we thought we had it to rest.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: And then another federal court jumped in and put a
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: temporary restraining order on what the state Supreme Court said,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: kind of ignoring what the U.S. Supreme Court said. So
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: let me lay this out there for those of you
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: that haven't been paying attention to what Missouri's been up to.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: And this, of course, is all about that larger battle
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: that we spent the spring litigating and relitigating all over
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: the country, the sort of mid-decade redistricting. So Missouri Republicans drew,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: you know, followed the advice of President Trump and drew
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: a new congressional map last year. They wanted to go
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: instead of 6-2, they wanted to at least see if
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: they could get to 7-1 or even 8-0. It was
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: part of that mid-decade redistricting arms race. And the principal
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: target was the fifth congressional district in Kansas City. It
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: is the district that is currently represented by Democratic Congressman
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Emanuel Cleaver. opponents of that map. And what they did
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: is they basically, they got rid of the fifth, right?
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: They created a hub and spoke and they made a,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: and essentially they created a situation that there would be
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: just one African-American seat in St. Louis, essentially, and that's it.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: 7-1 everywhere. They took a 6-2, a map that, you know,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: in a really good democratic year could get to 5-3
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: if the Ann Wagner suburban seat ever fell to the Democrats.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: But realistically, it had been a 6-2 map. They decided
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: they could make a 7-1 map. They couldn't get rid
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: of the St. Louis district, but they thought they could
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: get rid of the Kansas City one. So they come
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: up with this 7-1 map. Opponents of that map went
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: out and collected more than 300,000 signatures to put the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: legislation basically on a yay or nay, up or down
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: vote on a statewide referendum. Because under Missouri's constitution, A
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: valid referendum petition can suspend a law until the voters
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: decide whether to approve it. The voters can kind of
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: overrule a legislature if enough signatures are gathered to do
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: just that. It's an interesting, Missouri's not the only state
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: that does this, but it's one of the few states
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: that do it. So opponents got the signatures and they
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: had it for a long time. And it looked like
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: we were going to get this referendum done. pretty quickly
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: and it would have happened perhaps in the spring or whatever,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: except the Missouri Secretary of State, Danny Hoskins, decided the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: referendum provision didn't apply to congressional redistricting. He just, by
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the way, he had no basis in fact to prove this,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: he just decided this. So he just kept delaying. Those
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: petitions were submitted in December, okay? December of 2025. We
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: are sitting in September of 2026. And he did not
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: reject the petition signatures officially until 4 p.m. on August 4th.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: August 4th happened to be the day of the Missouri primary.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: In other words, and you see what he was doing here,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: he was sort of trying to, they were trying to
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: jam the courts. They were trying to sort of force
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: a situation where, yeah, but you can't disenfranchise the voters.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: We've gone too far. It's like Trump. It's the equivalent
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: of knocking down a building before anybody gave you permission
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: to knock down a building. What are you going to
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: do about it now? That's essentially what this Missouri Secretary
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: of State tried to do. He tried to screw the voters,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: screw the state constitution, and jam this thing through. So
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Missouri went ahead on August 4th, held congressional primaries using
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the new district lines, even though he knew the legal status,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: As Secretary of State, this person ought to be recalled
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: and kicked out of office. It's the most undemocratic actions
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: that you could make here. I mean, and it's incompetency.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Like any first-year lawyer just out of law school would
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: have told him, hey, this is going to get challenged. Anyway, so-
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: He goes ahead and allows the election to be held
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: under the new lines, even though he knew the legal
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: status was in question. And so what happened? Last week,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the Missouri Supreme Court the state Supreme Court unanimously said
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: the secretary of state's decision to not accept these referendum,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: accept those signatures and accept the premise of the referendum
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: that his, his interpretation that somehow this, this provision in
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the constitution didn't apply to redistricting was BS, man. This
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: was unanimous, unanimous. They said this, they said the referendum
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: was legal. It was sufficient and it was timely. And
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: because it was filed on time, the court said the
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: new congressional map never took effect. So as far as
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the state Supreme Court is concerned, there is no 7-1
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: map that the Republicans created late in 2025. There was
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: only the 2022 map, which was that 6-2 map. So-
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: The Missouri Supreme Court is saying the map didn't become
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: illegal last week. The map never existed. It never took effect.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: But voters voted, right? Hey, you know those pieces in
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  Speaker 1: dot com slash chucked. So the old 2022 districts remain,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: as far as the state Supreme Court is concerned, the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: only legal congressional districts that Missouri has had the entire time.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: So the court specifically blamed the practical mess we're now
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: in on the secretary of state's delay. and incorrect interpretation
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: of law. This is why this person, he literally has
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: disenfranchised over a million voters with his partisan decision just
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: because he was afraid of following his own state's constitution.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I believe he took an oath, but apparently he already
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: violated his oath. So look, they didn't like what the
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: state Supreme Court did. So Missouri appealed to the United
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: States Supreme Court to intervene. And Again, just before polls
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: closed in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Justice Brett
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Kavanaugh declined to intervene. He didn't give an explanation. But
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: I can tell you why he didn't intervene. This is
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: a state issue. The U.S. Supreme Court rarely is just
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: not going to get involved in the interpretation of a
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: state constitution by a state Supreme Court. That's why he
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: didn't intervene. And if you go look at the history
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: of U.S. Supreme Courts, when you see States, I mean,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: we saw a similar thing happen with Virginia, right? Virginia
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Democrats wanted the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene and they
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: wouldn't do it. They're not going to get involved when
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the state Supreme Court is interpreting the state constitution. So
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: one would have assumed that would have settled it. Old
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: map is going to be in November. Now, there was
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of problems with that, except minutes after the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Kavanaugh decision where he said this U.S. Supreme Court was
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: not going to intervene in this, A federal district judge
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: in Missouri, a gentleman named Stephen Clark, issued a temporary
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: restraining order saying Missouri cannot use the old map, even
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: though the state Supreme Court said there is only one map.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: There is no new map because it was never legal.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: So here we are. The Missouri Supreme Court says there
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: is no new map. You cannot use it. It's not
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: a legal map. And a federal judge says, yeah, but
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: you can't use the old map now. It's too late.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Election day is eight weeks away. So here we are, Missouri.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: So what's going to happen? So here's what Judge Clark's
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: order does. It only lasts 14 days, this temporary restraining order.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: And the opponents of the new map have already appealed
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: this decision. But it is important to hear Clark's reasoning
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: here because this was the point I had actually prepared
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: to talk about until we had even more changes here.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: He has now put his finger on the same problem
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: I was trying to understand since the Missouri Supreme Court
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: ruling came down. He says switching maps between the primary
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: and the general election would, quote, wreak havoc on the
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: fairness and orderliness of Missouri's congressional elections. And he's right
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: about the underlying practical problem because Missouri already held this primary.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: About 1.2 million Missourians participated in said primary. Candidates won nominations.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Those results were certified all under a map that does
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: not exist according to the state Supreme Court, by the way.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: But because those primaries were conducted using the new districts.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: So now what do you do, right? The Missouri Supreme
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Court says, Those districts never should have been used because
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: they had not been enacted into law yet. So imagine
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: you're a voter in Missouri. You showed up in August.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: The state told you, here's your new congressional district. Here
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: are the candidates seeking to represent you. You get to
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: pick one. And so you did. Your vote was counted.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: And now the state may have to come back and say, well,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: you're now in a different district. So the person you
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: voted in the primary is not the nominee you get
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: to decide between. That's in, you're now in a different district. Well,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: what the hell, right? Right, so somebody else won a
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: primary to represent your actual district, except you never got
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: to vote in that primary. So we're, this is not
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: a hypothetical. This is what is being contemplated right now
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: by the state of Missouri. Now, if you want to
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: get into the details here, six of Missouri's eight congressional
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: districts were changed by the new map. And the fifth
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: district was the one changed the most. So basically, you've
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: got three quarters of voters were impacted by this in Missouri.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how you can even, if you're,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know how Congress can seat the winners of
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: this if they somehow change maps here. Anyway, so what
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: do you, so now are they going to revert to
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: the old map? And then if you won, if you're
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the Republican nominee, a guy named Rick Bratton thought he
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: was going to be essentially the shoo-in to win the
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: congressional seat of the new fifth district. Now he's going
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to be the Republican nominee against Emanuel Cleaver in Emanuel
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Cleaver's old district, and he's going to get trounced. And
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: the Republican voters who nominated the Republican who were voting
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: in a fundamentally different district. So what do you do? Well,
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: what Judge Clark's answer is, essentially, is that changing now
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: creates such enormous disruption that the fairer course is to
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: finish the election under the map used for the primaries.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: But there's one enormous problem with the solution. The Missouri
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court has unanimously said that the map never took
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: effect under Missouri law. So now you've got two courts
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: protecting two different principles. The state court is saying you
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: cannot simply ignore the Missouri Constitution because following it has
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: become inconvenient, which is what the Secretary of State essentially did.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: And he intentionally delayed his decision to try to jam,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: to try to create this fiasco situation we're in. Again,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I just, you know, I hate dumbasses. This guy, I
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: don't know, just, just get out of politics. Don't ever
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: get near the, don't ever get near public service again.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: You weren't interested in working on public service. You were
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: just interested in implementing some partisan hackery. You ran for
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: secretary of state. That's a, that in theory is supposed
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: to be a job that's a bit more operational, a
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: lot less partisan. And, it's just, it stinks to high heaven.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: So we're in this situation because of the bad, a
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: bad acting by a bad actor. But now we've got
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the two courts and I get it. This is not
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: a very easy thing to reconcile. So now you're in a,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: we're in this situation where you have a map, that
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: the state Supreme Court says did not follow the state's constitution.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: You've held a primary election, an illegal primary election, as
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: it turns out, but you don't wanna disenfranchise all of
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: these voters, right? That's what the federal judge is saying.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: So what do you do? Well, why does the solution
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: have to be pretending that one of these problems doesn't exist?
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Because there is a precedent for another way to get
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: out of this box, and it's Texas 1996. This is
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: where the Missouri story I think is likely headed. Texas
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: had a similar situation. They had already held their congressional
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: primaries in 1996. Then after those primaries, a federal court
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: had to redraw a bunch of congressional districts because the
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court had upheld a ruling finding that several of
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: the districts, not all of them, but several of them
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: were unconstitutional. So while it was a different underlying legal issue,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: we had the same practical election problem. You've already held
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the primaries. Now you've got different districts. So what did
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: the federal court do? It voided the primary results in
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: the 13 affected congressional districts and then did something remarkably simple.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: On the regular November election day in 96, everybody ran
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: on one ballot, Democrats, Republicans, and anybody else who qualified,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: all on the same ballot. If somebody got a majority, congratulations,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: you're going to Congress on, you know, on the traditional
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: election day. If nobody got 50%, the top two came
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: back for a runoff on December 10th. Four districts ended
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: up requiring those runoffs. This is not some theoretical law
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: school remedy. This is what was actually done not that
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: long ago. And the reason I bring this up isn't
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: because I'm telling Missouri what a court should do. I'm
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: just telling you what's, I think, going to be the likely–
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: the simplest solution to not an easy– to certainly not
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: an easy problem. There are important legal differences between Texas
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: in 96 and Missouri in 26, right? Missouri law itself
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: does not ordinarily provide for this kind of congressional election.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: A court would have to find the legal authority to
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: impose this extraordinary remedy. And I think that's something a
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: federal court could do. The clock, by the way, is
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: ticking here. Federal law generally requires military and overseas ballots
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: to go out 45 days before a federal election. For
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: November 3rd, that would put the deadline at September 19th,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: 11 days, right? We're less than two weeks away. But
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: if the courts ultimately conclude that Missouri has to use
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: the old districts, somebody's going to have to answer this
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: fundamental question. Who nominated the candidates? Because District 5 is
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: not just a number on a piece of paper. A
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: congressional district is filled with people. Change the people and
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: you've changed the electorate. And if you've changed the electorate,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: how do you simply declare the nominee chosen by one
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: group of voters is also the nominee chosen by another
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: group of voters who never got to participate, right? So
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: that's why I keep coming back to the Texas solution.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: It's the most obvious answer here. And it's the simplest
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: way to not create more problems because more problems could
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: be created if you don't do this. You know, November
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't have to be the general election. November becomes the
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: primary and the general. It's what Louisiana used to do
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: for years, for what it's worth. You know, you get, frankly,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: it's the type of primary election I would prefer as
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: a voter, you know, not having to pick a party,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: but you just, everybody's on the same ballot. I don't
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: know that this is what the courts will do, but
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: precedent always matters here. And this is a fairly, it's
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the fairest way to resolve this problem. right? Of all
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: the available choices, at least this one is the virtue
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: of letting people who actually live in the district choose
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: who represents them. And this ought to be the priority, right?
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: That's the constituency whose interests seem to have gotten lost
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: in this entire fight, the actual fricking voters. Republicans wanted
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: another congressional seat. Opponents wanted a referendum. The Secretary of
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: State decided the referendum wasn't valid because it went against
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: his own politics. The Missouri Supreme Court decided that it was.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: The The state was hoping the U.S. Supreme Court would intervene.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: They wouldn't. Now we're in this intervention, temporary restraining order,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: which sort of screws everything up. The Eighth Circuit is
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: going to get involved. And that's where I think they're
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: going to come up with this remedy. There is just
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: there is no other way. Again, unless everybody has their
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: head up their partisan ass, right, the only remedy here
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: is to provide the voters an opportunity to pick their
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: own representatives and in the districts that actually exist. If
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: they don't do this, there's all sorts of issues here.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I could see a Congress not seating anybody from these eight.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: We could see an entirely new special election have to
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: take place. By the way, this referendum is now gonna
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: be on the November ballot to decide whether or not,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: yay or nay on this. And who knows, we've seen
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: voters Voters don't like a political party, whether it was
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: voters in a blue state like Virginia, didn't like the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: idea of trying to jerry-rig that referendum. And I think
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: you're going to see, you know, voters didn't love it.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: It passed, but they didn't love it in Virginia. And
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: then the courts intervened. So we'll see. Missouri is certainly
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: a red state. But again, no matter how partisan you are,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: you don't like to feel like you don't get a
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: say in these things. And we've seen Missouri referendum ideologically
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: will go in a variety of different places. It may
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: be a red state, but it's not always ideologically as
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: red of a state as its reputation. But either way,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: it's kind of, and if the margin is really close
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: in the house, I'm not going to go down these
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: rabbit holes. I have a conversation that I'm going to
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: get to in about a week that you'll enjoy on that.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: But Imagine if we have an entire congressional delegation where
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: we can't seat them on January 3rd for the new Congress.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: And imagine if somehow those eight congressional districts, what happens
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: in them would decide control if the margin is that
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: tight between the two parties, which of course, in my
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: blue mirage scenario, is quite possible. All right, let me
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: whip up a few other things from the campaign trail.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: We are less than eight weeks away. And like I said,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: especially on Wednesdays, I'm going to do my best to
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: highlight just some interesting developments on the trail. Not every poll.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to do every ad or manufactured outrage.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: But there are some things that pop that I think
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: are worth a quick hot take about or two. And
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: here are three that caught my eye over the last
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: few days. And strangely enough, all three are kind of
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: the same version of the same question, which is what
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: candidates say versus what candidates do. And I'm going to
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: start in Nebraska. Because the independent Senate candidate there, Dan Osborne,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: has given us one of the more revealing explanations of
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: campaigning that I've heard in a while. Osborne, if you recall,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: came surprisingly close in 2024 of pulling an upset against
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Deb Fischer. Well, he's obviously he's running again, and this
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: time he's running against Pete Ricketts. And he's trying to
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: perform an incredibly difficult political balancing act, right? He's trying
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: to stick to being an independent, promising he's not going
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: to caucus with either party if he wins a Senate seat.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: And yet he can't win if Democrats don't rally around him.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: And he can't win if he doesn't win a majority
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: of independents. And he's going to need some Trump voters.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: This is Nebraska, right? In 2024, Osborne ran an ad
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: that began this way. Social Security deal with illegals? Who
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: would be for that? And then he went on to
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: say he was with Trump on issues like corruption, China,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: and the border. And then he adds, if Trump needs
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: help building a wall, well, I'm pretty handy, right? You know,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: he's the working class guy. He's the mechanic. And he
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: was trying to show that off, right? It's a nice line,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: except Osborne had also talked publicly about undocumented immigrants who
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: had been in this country for decades, being able to
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: get legal status and participate in Social Security. And then
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: this summer at a private meeting with Black and Latino Democrats,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: he was challenged about that wall rhetoric and that wall
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: ad from 2024. And here's what Osborne said. He explained
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: that campaigning and governing were essentially two separate pots of things,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: if you will. He said, there's the campaigning side when
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: you're trying to get elected. And then there's what you
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: do once you're in office. This is true, right? Every
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: politician runs into this. Every politician tailors a message. Every
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: politician emphasizes one issue in one room and another issue
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: in another room. That's called politics. But there's something else.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: There's something different about actually articulating the theory And you've
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: got to walk a fine line here, especially with a
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: guy like Osborne who, you know, his best asset is
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: he's not a traditional politician, except now he's behaving like
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: a traditional politician, right? Campaigning over here, governing over there. Okay.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: What makes it politically particularly interesting coming from Osborne is
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: because of his independent political identity. His pitch is that
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: he isn't one of these people. He's not a normal politician.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: He's not beholden to the parties, except apparently the distinction
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: between the campaign version and the governing version applies to
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: independence too. And it's look, he, he, I give him
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: points for being honest that, Hey, he's going to say
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: certain things on the trail. Um, And he's going to
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: govern a different way. You know, what is it? There
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: was a famous Mario quote, you know, you campaign in
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: poetry and govern in prose. But I think it really did.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Certain campaigns can get hit harder when you're caught sort
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: of behaving like somebody you've been running against. And that's
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: why I think this is potentially one that could sting
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: for Osborne a little bit. But it takes me to
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: a campaign in Ohio because this is a house race.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: But there's sort of a similar issue here. So I
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: want to share the story with you. The Democrat is
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: a guy named Don Leonard. He supplied us with another
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: version of the same sort of Osborne story here. Leonard
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: is running against a Republican congressman named Mike Kerry. And
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: earlier this year, Leonard was talking about accusations that he's
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: a Democratic socialist. And Leonard is on tape saying the following.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not a Democratic socialist. OK, but then he added this.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Even if I'd were, I'd lie to people. I'd lie
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: to the people of my district in order to get
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: their votes. And then he laughed. Well, guess what? Mike Carey,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: the congressman, has turned that little excerpt into an ad.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Because why wouldn't you, right? There is nothing, you know,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: in this day and age of everything being AI'd up,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the only thing that might be credible with voters, and
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I say might, I don't know if any ads are
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: going to matter anymore if everybody thinks they're all just
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: made up AI slop fest ads. Right. And Trump is
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: with the AI slop fest that he does all the time.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: It's really doing this. But anyway, if you can get
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: candidates in there, if you can get your opponent in
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: their own words, it's always it always has the ability
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: to land harder than if you're just repeating the words
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: or showing them on screen. So, look, if your opponent
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: hands you audio saying I'd lie to voters to get
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: their votes, you know, you don't need to be a
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: political genius to say, hey, I think I'm going to
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: use that in a political ad. Now, Leonard has an
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: actual recording record of being sort of left-wing political views
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: that gives Kerry plenty of material with which to surround
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: the quote. But let's forget the ideological argument here for
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: a moment. I'm fascinated by the assumption contained in the joke.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Osborne gets asked about saying different things to different audiences
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: and explains, well, hey, there's There's sort of two different
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: lanes you got to do here. You got to say
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: certain things as a candidate, then you'll do certain things
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: when you're governing. The candidate in the Ohio House race
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: jokes that if he held an unpopular belief, obviously he'd
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: lie about it. And you're like, great. Thanks for puncturing
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: whatever hope voters might have had that somebody with integrity
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: might actually run for office here. Different candidates, different states,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: there's different politics, but it's the same underlying assumption, right?
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: The campaign is a thing. you do to get elected,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: and then there's what you actually believe. And I just say,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: you know, when you're running an outsider campaign and you're
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: an outsider, the second your opponent gets to prove that
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: you're no different than they are, doesn't hurt the opponent
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: as much as it's gonna hurt, you know, the outsider candidate, right? Nothing,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: in a weird way, it hits harder, you know, even
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: if the sin is relatively small, right? It's who you're
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: trying to portray yourself as versus who you might actually be.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: And I think, look, this is, you know, for all
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: of these independent candidates, Osborne, Brian Bangs, Todd Achilles, Seth Bodnar, right?
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: The Republican campaign against them is, oh, they're Democrats in
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: independent clothing. And, you know, Osborne just saying what he
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: did makes that easier to, to execute that, you know,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: essentially to prosecute that case. Perhaps the jury of voters
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: might say, yeah, we hear you, but man, we're done
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: with these incumbents and we're going with the outsider anyway.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: And that might very well be the case in Nebraska.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: But I think this is, I think this is suddenly,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: it's a story that says, oh, he's just another politician.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: And if you're trying to break this, if you're trying
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: to break into this system You don't ever want somebody
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: to conclude you're just another politician. All right, I want
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: to stop in Kansas here and the Roger Marshall story.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a few things going on in Kansas.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: One is Donald Trump is doing everything he can to
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: screw up the Kansas economy, right? He's done it with beef,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: and now he's doing it with these Canadian tariffs, in
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: particular Bombardier, a Canadian-owned airplane manufacturer that has factories in Kansas.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: It's been a staple in Kansas for decades. And let's
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: just say every Republican elected official, except really for Roger Marshall,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: he hasn't really come out, has come out in support
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: of Bombardier, though it's funny how they keep talking. Some people,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: they put out statements. Nobody wants to name check Trump
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: and say, you know, he's wrong about this. They just
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: simply want to show that they're supportive of Bombardier. But
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: it is yet more proof that Trump might be just
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: a secret planet. of the Democrats to just see if
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: he can totally implode the Republican Party before the midterms.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: But that's not the story I wanted to touch on
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: in Kansas. I wanted to touch on this story in
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: the New York Times that's making the rounds. And it's
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: one of these stories that there's nothing illegal that was found,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: but it's a character story. So let me tell you
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: about it. Roger Marshall, of course, Republican Senator up for reelection.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Democratic opponent is the Methodist pastor, Adam Hamilton. Now, Marshall,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: before he ran for his political career, was a doctor.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: In fact, he built a substantial part of his political
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: identity around being Doc Marshall, an OBGYN, rural doctor, a
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: guy who delivered thousands of babies. Well, the New York
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Times has gone through court records from his years of
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: practicing medicine, and what they found was somewhat remarkable. More
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: than 700 patients of Marshall, have been sued for unpaid
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: medical bills. 81 arrests following missed court appearances. He is
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: asked for wage garnishments, bank accounts, interest. He's charged interest
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: on this debt. And some of the debt has been
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: astonishingly small. One was $ 101. One was $ 129. Now, I
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: want to be careful here. Roger Marshall did not personally
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: order police officers to arrest patients who missed court dates.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Judges issue warrants when people fail to appear in court,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: not the person who is suing. His attorney says Marshall
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: was not personally making those decisions and that his medical
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: practice was using the same collection procedures available to other creditors. Okay,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: totally true. But there's also this. If you're suing somebody
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: over a $ 129 medical bill, this is no longer an
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: abstract argument about the financial survival of rural medicine, right?
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: There's one more wrinkle. In 2025, Senator Marshall introduced legislation
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: restricting hospitals' ability to sue certain patients when hospitals had
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: failed to comply with federal price transparency requirements. Now, that's
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: very interesting to me now, after reading the story about Marshall.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Does Marshall, did he change his mind about medical debt collection?
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Does he think what his own practice did was wrong?
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Or does he believe there's an important distinction between what
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: a hospital does to collect medical debt and what a
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: doctor's office does? Point is, I think we'd all want
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: to hear the answer from him. But there's also a
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: campaign media story here too. Marshall's allies want to know
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: why this story appears now, right? Why didn't the New
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: York Times do this story a year ago, two years ago,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: three years ago, six years ago, et cetera? Why did
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: they choose to run this story less than two months
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: before an election? A fair question, right? There's no doubt.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: It's possible that somebody to show a reporter, hey, did
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: you see what we found? There might be more to this.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: You might want to look into it. Guess what? Welcome
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: to campaign vetting, right? Welcome to campaign reporting. Now, I've
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: covered enough campaigns to know that damaging information doesn't usually
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: materialize spontaneously on a reporter's desk. But here's a distinction
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: that I think matters. The motive of the source doesn't
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: determine whether the information is true. If a campaign hands
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: a report or a court record, the journalist's job isn't
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: to say, oh, this came from the opposition, therefore it
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: doesn't count. The job is to go get your own
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: version of the court record, verify it, do the reporting,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: find out what's going on behind it, give the candidate
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: in question an opportunity to respond, then perhaps let voters
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: decide whether this is a story or not. There's also campaigning, right?
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: What candidates say, what candidates do, and what the other
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: side can prove they did. It's one of those things
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: that I understand the crankiness of the Marshall campaign, but
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: I do think this becomes a character question, right? Which is,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: you know, the story also noted Marshall decided what the
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: interest rate should be on uncollected debt, and he chose 18%, right?
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Like credit card debt, 18%. Not 3%, not 4%, not 5%.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: And there were the inevitable stories from people on explaining
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: why the ones who'd gotten arrested for missing a court appearance,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: some said they didn't know there was a court appearance
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: and they didn't know that missing it meant they could
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: get arrested. And look, I think we all know you
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: have to have some rules. And if you have no rules,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: then nothing gets enforced. But what this really gets at, right,
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: is the empathy question. You're a doctor. How empathetic are you? Right?
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: The Democratic nominee is a pretty famous pastor, right? Pastors are,
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: you know, and empathy go hand in hand. It is, it, and,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: you know, Marshall already kind of has this, Marshall is
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: not a, I'll put it in medical terms. He doesn't
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: have the greatest bedside manner. In fact, in some ways
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised, you know, I look at a guy like
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: the other doctor and one of the other doctors in
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: the Senate, Bill Cassidy. That dude's got a good bedside matter.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Whatever you think of Bill Cassidy, some of you may
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: love him, some of you may hate him, be angry
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: with him over the Kennedy thing. And, you know, I
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: think there are good friends of his that are angry
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: with him over the Kennedy business. But I get it. Like,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: as a doctor, you're like, yeah, he would make me
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: feel better. He would, you know, the information I got
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: out of him, he's got the ability to tell it
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: like it is and not feel like you're getting something
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: jammed up your you-know-what. Marshall is, I don't know if
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: he's just a little still Washington shy. I don't know
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: how else to put it, but there's just a little,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: and this story sort of paints a very just cold picture. Look,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: there's nothing untoward that he did. And, you know, he's
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: running a business and they've got to collect the debt.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: But it's, it certainly appears there wasn't a lot of
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: empathy behind the decision making. And it ultimately, right. politics
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: is very personal for people. Especially, again, the contrast with
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Pastor Hamilton is quite striking here. Nevermind that it brings
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: up the larger question of, you know, how much of
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: healthcare should be a for-profit enterprise and how much of
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: it should be a right? And, you know, what should,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: you know, there was this just gut-wrenching story with one
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: of the people who got arrested who she was, she
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: started to fill out the paperwork, She thought she might
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: qualify for Medicaid, and then she went into labor before
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: she finished the paperwork and then got the big bill
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: and et cetera, and it went on. Let's not pretend
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: we make this easy for people that are at or
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: near the poverty line when it comes to getting Medicaid coverage,
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: qualifying for Medicaid coverage, going through the hoops, different states
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: have different rules, all of those things. And– Again, I
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: get why the Marshall people are upset with the timing,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: but this is no ordinary place for an oppo hit
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: like this to land. It lands in the New York Times.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: That's going to be a boon for Hamilton as far
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: as attention. It's going to be a boon for Hamilton
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: when it comes to some fundraising. The question is, is it–
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: and you can see how this gets turned into what
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the Obama people turned Romney into, the cold– hard-ass corporate
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: executive who just was trying to lay people off as
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: fast as they can. You could picture that that's the
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: picture that they want to paint with Marshall. And that's
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: the question that I have about Marshall is how well
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: established is his identity? He's an incumbent, but this is
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: his first reelection as senator. How well established is he
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: with Kansas voters? How embedded is he? Jerry Moran's been
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: around a long time. I think he's embedded himself. One
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: story wouldn't puncture reputation of Moran. I'm not as convinced
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: on Marshall. So it's quite the look. This was quite
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: the hit on Marshall. And look, here's the thing. If
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: we don't vet these candidates during campaign season, when is
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: there ever going to be vetting of these candidates? So
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: I'd rather have the information. Yes. Is it all motivated
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: by the election? Of course it is. But ultimately, when
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: are voters paying attention to decide on the character and
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: the qualifications of whether these people deserve to be in
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: public service? It's in campaign season. So I'd rather see
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: all of these stories about everybody in the vetting. And
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: we're going to get, I promise there's going to be
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: a deep dive into how Hamilton has managed his congregation
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: and how he's managed. And there already have been stories
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: like that. There'll be plenty of that. Um, but I
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: think this one, you know, I, I've had Kansas on
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: my radar a little bit longer than most people. And
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: I think you now, you now see that Kansas is
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: just inching ever so closer to the battleground. Not quite
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: one of our top six races yet, but it may
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: be getting closer than either Nebraska or my friends in
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire. Hey, this episode of the Chuck Todd cast
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  Speaker 1: was as of August of 2026. All right, let's do
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: a little top five list and some questions to wrap
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: up this episode. So here's my top five list this week.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: And it's a... It's the statewide sweeps. To me, blue wave,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: blue tsunami, right? I've gone through my various stages here
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: for you. You know, blue mirage, blue wave, blue tsunami.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: I'm going to leave the blue mirage category aside for
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: this list. Well, actually, you could look at it this way,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: but I think there's a pretty good measurement. particularly on
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: the Democratic side, measuring this through the prism of the
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Democrats here, of five states where a Democrat hasn't carried
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: that state at least since 2012 for president, where both
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: a governor and a Senate race is on the ballot.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: And as you know, I went through this about the
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: importance of the top of the ticket. It's governor's races
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: in many of these states and how important these gubernatorial
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: nominees might be to bringing over either you know, flawed
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: candidates or lesser known candidates, or maybe the state's a
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: little too red or you got to try to drag
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: it over. But I thought a pretty good measurement. I
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: wanted to give you the five states where I think
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Democrats at least have a 10 percent chance of of
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: the dual sweep of winning the governor's race and the
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: competitive Senate race in that state. And I think this
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: is the way I would have you examine this top five.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: If somehow all Democrats swept all five of these states,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: I'm about to highlight here. that are both featuring both
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: competitive Senate and marginally competitive governor's races. I say marginally,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: because that's eye of the beholder, but they're not blowouts.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: They made the list because it is somewhat competitive. And
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: in one case, it's actually a governor's race is more
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: competitive than the Senate race, and I'll get to that.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: But I think a good way to see which categories,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: if somehow Republicans swept all five of these states and
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: the dual statewide, well, then that would be blue mirage territory.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: And then the degrees of wave depend on how many
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: of these states Democrats sweep, right? If they can get
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: all of them, then this is a blue tsunami. I'd
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: argue three of the five. If they swept, you would
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: call this either a very big wave bordering on blue tsunami,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: and obviously four or five is there. So I know
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: I threw a bunch of caveats in there and you're like,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: what the hell are you talking about? Here's the bottom line.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: Here's the five red states, right? Where a Democratic presidential
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: candidate has not carried that state since at least 2012.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: So it's been more than a decade since that state
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: went blue in a presidential race. Here are my top
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: five states where Democrats have a realistic chance of the sweep,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: both Senate and Gov. And again, It's like I'm not
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Michigan doesn't make this list because, hey, Joe Biden carried
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Michigan in 2020. And, you know, there's you know, it's
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: it's I think Democrats are favored to sweep both races.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: But the Senate race is definitely a coin flip. Ditto
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: with a Minnesota or ditto with a that could see,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: you know, Democrats win both the governor's race or that,
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: you know, it doesn't qualify. This is already sort of
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: a blue or purple state or a blue leaning state.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: These are these red states basically that in the Trump
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: era have been out of reach for for Democrats, particularly
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: in the presidential level and either out of reach, either
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: in a Senate race or a Gov race or both.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: So coming in at number five is the state of Florida, okay? Florida,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: this is the most unrealistic. This is probably the hardest
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: of the states that were once competitive and haven't been
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: in the Trump era, put Florida there. This is probably
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: the tallest mountain for Democrats to climb. It's more, you know,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: they could in a blue wave scenario, even, you know,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: they could lose both the governor's race and the Senate
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: race and still have a good year politically, you would
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: say this. But I'm putting it on the list because
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: I do think the governor's race is going to be close.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: And I think if somehow David Jolly pulls it off,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: we will say this was closer to being a big
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: blue wave to slash tsunami. And I think Angie Nixon
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: may be more competitive than folks realize. She doesn't have
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: the resources and the national party is not going to
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: put it there. but you may see more party realignment
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: here than you realize there. So look, it's sort of,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: it's at the tail end. It is not a, but
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: it's sort of, you know, because I say you have
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: to have a top five list, Florida's fifth, but there's
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: a big gap between four and five on my list.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: Number four on my list is Kansas. So Kansas is
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: interesting because now they've never, they haven't elected a Democratic
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: senator since the 1930s. And obviously, this is the current
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: governor is term limited from seeking a third term, Laura Kelly,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: and it's a Democrat. So this is a case where
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: if Democrats are able to do something they haven't been
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: able to do when they've won these governor's races, which
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: is have a new Democrat replace the term limited Democrat, right?
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: It didn't happen with Sebelius. And Kelly is trying to see,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: you know, has she permanently shift the governing culture of
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: the state? Now, we'll see, you know, her preferred candidate
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: lost in the primaries. The Democratic nominee is won in
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: part due to the Kansas City Chiefs deal, but she's
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: also been pretty front and center on, again, status center
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: expansion and things like that. And then, of course, Republicans
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: in Kansas are still having to carry the baggage of
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Sam Brownback and those unpopular budget cuts, and that's always
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: something that they got to hang on there. But the
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: real sort of blue tsunami test here is, Can Democrats
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: actually win a Senate seat here? They've got a good
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: candidate in Adam Hamilton. They've been competitive before, 2014. They
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: had an independent, Greg Orman, who came within single digits
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: of Pat Roberts back in the day, or right around
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: single digits. It was right in the 9-10 cut line
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: on that. But I promise you, if Democrats were able
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: to flip this Senate seat, and I think Roger Marshall's
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: uniquely vulnerable here. He's not the most... Right. Jerry Moran
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: has been more front and center pushing back on Trump.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Marshall will never push back on Trump. And I wonder
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: if that's a problem for him, if he's going to
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: underperform in some of the suburban areas of Kansas City,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Kansas and things like that. So I think the possibilities
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: are there. But boy, you would be in blue tsunami
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: territory if Democrats could win both in the same cycle,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: a Senate race and a government race. So number four.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: So I put Florida is is Competitive, but very unlikely. Kansas, competitive,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: mostly unlikely. My next three here are the more realistic
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: sort of blue wave seats. And I think if two
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: of these three sweeps came in for the Democrats in
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: my top three here, you would call it a significant
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: blue wave. And if all three came in, I think
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: you would need to classify this as blue tsunami. And
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start with the state of Iowa. I'm
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: putting Iowa number three instead of Texas. I debated back
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: and forth. Number one, the minute I say it is
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: going to be, you'll see why that was sort of
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: the easier call here. But number three on my list
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: is Iowa. So what I'm saying is, is I think
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: this Senate seats a very, very tough hill for Democrats
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: to climb. I told you, I gave you all the
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: data behind it last week and a couple of monologues there.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: So I won't go into the dirty details there. But
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is listen to Rob Sand,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee, and how he campaigns and how he
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: speaks about party politics. He talked about that if for
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: some reason he was asked the question if Senator Grassley
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: couldn't finish his seat, who would he appoint? What party
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: would he appoint a Democrat to replace Grassley? He said, no,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: he'd appoint an independent. it was important for him to
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: get that out there, right? He's trying to send a
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: message to those that are not happy with the Democratic
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: brand in Iowa, that he's a different type of Democrat,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: that he's more of an independent minded Democrat. But that's
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: also a reminder of why in Iowa, I think it's
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: going to be very much harder for a Democrat to
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: win a Senate seat than a Gov seat. Governors, individual person,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: a Senate seat is sort of a party caucus vote, right?
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: You know, and it's in some ways voters usually you know,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: are more likely to pick to to prioritize Jersey color
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: over an individual than they do in a governor's race. Look,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: Republicans also have a very weak governor gubernatorial nominee. I mean,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: this Zach Lane guy is having to make the case
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: that he's an actual Iowan when you're less than 60
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: days from election and you've still got to answer serious
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: questions about how much of an Iowan you are in
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: a place that is very proud of being of living
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: in that state. I just think it's a it's I
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: don't want to say it's unwinnable because it's a red
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: leaning state. But Zach Lane's as close to being an
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: unelectable nominee as you can come up with in in
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: in this current in this current situation. So a Democratic
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: sweep here of both the gubernatorial and the Senate race
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: definitely is indicated indicative of a blue wave, in my opinion.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: And I have a feeling if both of those come in,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: then there's going to be sweeps with the next– potentially
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: sweeps with the next two states we're talking about here.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to get to the part where the
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: state that I think some people are going to feel
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: as if is an impossibility, and that's Texas. We already
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: know the Senate race is close with Tallarico having a
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: slight advantage. The more remarkable race that has fallen under
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: the radar because of Ken Paxton and Tallarico is the
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: governor's race. Greg Abbott's trying to do something nobody's ever
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: done in Texas, win a fourth term for governor, a
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: fourth four-year term for governor. That is, you know, you
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: could just look at recent history. Fourth terms are very
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: difficult to get, particularly for consecutive terms. Sometimes it's a
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: lot easier to do it the way Jerry Brown did
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: it or to do it the way Terry Branstad did it.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: You win a couple of times, you leave, you come
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: back and win two more times. But four straight, right?
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: Mario Cuomo was trying for a fourth until it sort
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: of blew up in his face. So I just think
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: there's a natural fatigue, right? Throw in the fatigue with
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: the national party, throw in the disappointment with, you know,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: you have a divided Republican party in the state, right?
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: You have both a rising Democratic electorate in the state
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: and a divided Republican party, particularly on issues like the
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: way this voucher situation Uh, has gone education cuts, very
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: similar to what we see, what we saw developing in Kansas,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: where really a divided Republican party gave Democrats an opening.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: And essentially Democrats moved to become the, the, the Republican
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: light party, uh, as far as state government is concerned.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: And it was a lot of former Republicans who became
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: Democrats who, uh, who have helped fuel this movement as well.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying you're there where you have Republicans switching
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: parties in Texas, but you do have this divide that exists.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: And I think that is, I mean, you saw it here.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: So look, I think the data center flip-flop by Abbott
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: was an acknowledgement that this race is way too close
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: for comfort. Would I bet on Abbott losing? No, I
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: would not. All right. I think that I, I think
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: there's a pretty hard ceiling on this, but it's, but
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: I say pretty hard, right? I don't think the concrete
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: is completely dry. So maybe, maybe you can break through.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: But certainly, if Democrats swept both of these, you would
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: say blue tsunami. And I just think the likelihood is
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: greater than we fully appreciate. And I, you know, look,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: do I think either Iowa or Texas are likely for
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: Democrats to sweep those two top statewide races? I don't.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: But you're in like the 15 to 20% chance range, right?
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: That ain't nothing. And when you're in one in six,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: one in seven possibilities here, that can happen. That's realistic.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: That's where Trump was sitting. He had about a one
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: in four, one in five chance. of becoming president. He
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: became president. So I would not dismiss that. But the
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: number one state, and to me, frankly, it'll be a
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: test about, you might argue, blue mirage or blue wave,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: will be if somehow Democrats get shut out of Ohio
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: or Democrats win one and lose one, or Democrats sweep
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: the governor's race and the Senate race. If atmospherics are
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: as strong as I think they're developing, then I expect
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: the Democrats to sweep in Ohio. I think that the
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: unique nature that big tech is very unpopular with the
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: middle of the electorate, Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican leading the
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: ticket is kind of you know, made his, you know,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: that's what he's known for is being a tech entrepreneur,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: very close with that industry. What was a net positive
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: for him in a Republican primary when he was running
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: for president might be seen as a net negative now
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: with swing voters and independents or even some members of
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: MAGA who have grown a little bit leery of big
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: tech here. And so I think I think Ohio's the
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: best chance Democrats have of pulling a sweep in a
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: state that they have not carried in a presidential election
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: since 2012. And we're just, you know, and it would,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: I think a sweep would indicate you would put this state,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: by the way, in all five of these cases, if
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Democrats sweep the governor and Senate race, I think it
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: puts that state in play in the presidential. Because to
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: do both means you fundamentally have adjusted something. You've shifted
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: an independent electorate, or at least it's fluid enough that
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: it is worth contesting in a presidential year. So in
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: another way, the top five red states, the Democrats are gonna,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: another way to look at this, top five red states
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: that Democrats are going to learn about whether they should
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: target them in 28, I'd put them in the same order.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: They sweep Ohio, Ohio goes into the battleground. You sweep Texas,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: Texas goes into the presidential battleground. You sweep Iowa, Iowa's
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: back in the presidential battleground. I believe the same thing
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: with Kansas and Florida. So that might be, you know,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: as I'm talking out loud here, the even better way,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: the five red states that depending on how successful Democrats are,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: could end up in the presidential battleground come 2028. And
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: number one on this list for me is Ohio. Number
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: two is Texas. And I think if you look at it,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: those absolutely, you could see the scenario where that possibility
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: becomes more real than we think. After all, At this
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: point in time, in 2006, Virginia was still seen as
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: a reach by Democrats, not just in a Senate race,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: but even being targeted in a presidential race. The Democrats
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: win the Senate race in 06. Suddenly, Democrats decide, hey,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: maybe it's time to put Virginia and Colorado into the battleground.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: Lo and behold, Virginia and Colorado are now semi-reliably blue states.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: So there you go. There's the top five list this week.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: The Toddcast Top 5 list is brought to you by FanDuel.
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• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: in Louisiana. All right, let's do a little Ask Chuck.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: Greetings from Hermosa Beach, California. In the wake of 9-11,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: some argued the attacks should have been treated as criminal
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: acts rather than acts of war. In the spirit of
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: your Ford Nixon retrospective, How might history have unfolded differently
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: if we had taken that approach? Would we still have
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: invaded Afghanistan and could it have blunted the case for
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: the subsequent invasion of Iraq? I know the national desire
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: for vengeance probably made that impossible, but it feels worth examining.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: Keep up your edifying and affordable work. Well, I appreciate that, Todd. Hey,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: great name, obviously. So. This is actually the subject of
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: the column I'm working on this week, sort of a
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: little bit of fallout from 9-11. And I'm focusing on
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: sort of our loss of privacy and how that sort
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: of happened. The timing, the growth of the tech industry
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: and our comfort with giving up some privacy in exchange
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: for security ended up putting us in a bad relationship
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: with big tech is essentially the short form version of
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: the column I'm going to write. But it's interesting what you,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: the idea that if we had, treated this as a
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: criminal act rather than as an act of war. So
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: one of the what-ifs I have done is what if
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: Gore had won the 2000 presidential and 9-11 still happens?
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: There were a lot of Democrats that were arguing for, hey,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: let's do this in a court of law. Let's do
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: this like we did Oklahoma City. Let's do this. So
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: I do think that there's a chance that Gore might've
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: gone down that road as president more so than, than
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: Bush wanted to. But, you know, I think no matter
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: what we'd have ended up in Afghanistan, I mean, for
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: one is you're not wrong about there's the need of, well,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: who do we, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta, we
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: gotta get somebody for this, right? We gotta blow something up.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: So we were going to do something. You're not wrong
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: about that. And, An investigation was going to take us
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: all the way to Afghanistan. So the question is, would
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: we have treated Afghanistan as sort of all special forces, right?
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: Not tried to put the Taliban essentially as an enemy
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: of our state in order to deal with this. You know, and,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: you know, Certainly now that we have, I guess, sort
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: of this now diplomatic relations with the Taliban, it does
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: seem odd now in retrospect, right? Look, the bigger point
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: of your question is, had we looked at it as
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: just focusing on the act itself, And who is behind
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: the act itself? I'm not sure we would have kept
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: this as a criminal investigation, but if we had just
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: stayed focused on disrupting al-Qaeda wherever we were finding them, right?
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Kind of like the Israelis, you know, with Munich and
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: how they dealt with that. I don't think it takes
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: us to Iraq, right? Like that seemed to be, right,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: Iraq feel... and it looks worse and worse, right? History,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: you know, makes the decision look worse and worse all
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: the time. And there just wasn't a connection, right? And
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: the attempts to create a connection of Iraq to al-Qaeda
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: might have still been there, right? There still might have
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: been forces within the government who wanted to make that case,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: who believed these terrorist organizations were working together more than
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: they weren't. But had we just made this about al-Qaeda,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: you know, is our Is the situation in the Middle
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: East more stable today? You know, it's funny. If we
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: don't invade Iraq, I don't think Saddam is still in
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: power or that the Ba'athists are still in power. I
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: think the Arab swing would have overthrown Iraq. Now, you
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: might say it would probably be a government that would
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: be very close to Iran. Oh, wait, that's what we have,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: a government that's very close to Iran. So my point
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: being is that I think Iraq was probably not... Easy
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: as it was to topple Hussein, I think it tells
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: you that he wouldn't have survived the Arab Spring in
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: that brief period had we not touched, had we ended up.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: deciding not to invade Iraq. And that ultimately is still
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: the original sin of this one, right? Like of all
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: the mistakes we made after 9-11, and many of them
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: to me are very, you see how it happened and
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: it might have happened no matter what. We were in
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: a certain period. We were– the country was nervous. We
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: were willing to give up privacy in exchange for security.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: So many of the things that happened I think stay happening.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: It is interesting that if you've noticed, we're back to
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: treating the 9-11 hijackers as criminals again with a judge.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: We're still trying to– Now all of the information that's
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: been gotten about Khalid Sheikh Mohammed has suddenly been thrown
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: out by a court, if you've been following that at all.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: So that was the other problem, is I don't know
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: with the decision, and I think this would have happened
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: no matter the administration, we were going to strengthen the
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: intel community's ability to get information. Whether or not it
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: was going to be information you could introduce in a
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: court of law was not the priority at the time.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: So the likelihood that we would have gotten coerced information
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: or information you never would have been able to use
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: in a trial might have also made treating it as
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: a criminal act very difficult as well. So anyway, I
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: think it's a fair question. It's a good time to
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: have this conversation. It's a good time to be thinking
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: about alternative. But ultimately, the biggest what if is What
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: if we had just stayed focused on dealing with the
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: hijackers and the organization that was behind the plot, Al-Qaeda,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: and just stayed laser focused on that? Might Afghanistan be
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: a better country today because of it? Might the Middle
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: East be more stable today? Maybe. But I think in hindsight,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: creating a global war on terror didn't work. And we're
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: certainly now weaker today because of it. It's certainly a
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: contributor to the weakness today. Donald Trump doesn't become president
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: without his inability to essentially cast an entire faction of
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party into the dustbin of history, which is
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: what he did. So all of it had to happen
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: for us to get to the moment we're in at
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: the time. And if you think we're in a bad moment,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: then we made some pretty bad decisions in the first
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: few years after 9-11. All right. Next question comes from
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: Letitia W. And she writes, hey, Chuck, longtime listener, first
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: time caller from Pennsylvania's 10th district. Recent coverage of John
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: Fetterman got me wondering, do voters have any recourse if
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: they believe an elected official is simply refusing to do
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: the job or represent their constituents? Should there be some
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: mechanism such as a recall or a special election rather
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: than voters having to wait out an entire term, especially
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: a six year Senate term? Thanks for everything you do.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: Keep calling them as you see them, regardless of the
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: letter after their name. Thanks, Letitia. Well, Letitia, the bottom
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: line is there is recall elections for federal office holders
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: are just not constitutional. There are a handful of states
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: that have tried it. There was a group that wanted
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: to recall Bob Menendez during the height of his picadillos
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: in New Jersey, and a court threw it out. It's
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: the same. It's just like the term limits laws that
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: a bunch of states tried to pass in the 90s
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: were all deemed unconstitutional for Congress, because if you don't
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: put it in the Constitution, it's unconstitutional. Right. There are
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: no term limits in the Constitution and U.S. Senate terms
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: are set for six years. Now, what's interesting is in
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: my little research on your question here is that. In
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: our previous constitution, the Articles of Confederation, there was a
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: recall provision for federal office holders. It got deliberately left
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: out when they did the new constitution, the 1789 constitution.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: So it was considered and they decided not to. So
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: you don't– on a US senator, there is no recall provision, right?
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: Many states have You can do recalls for state or
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: even city elected officials, and we see this all the time.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: But you need a constitutional amendment, period. There's nothing else.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: There is no other workaround. There's one other workaround to
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: get rid of a U.S. senator. Two-thirds of the Senate
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: can expel a U.S. senator, right? And that was something
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: Bob Packard was going to do, was going to happen
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: to him. He likely would have been expelled, but I
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: believe he resigned before there would be an expulsion vote.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: So You know, most senators, well, so far, you know,
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: most of the time, the threat of expulsion and the
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: vote counting on expulsion convinces a senator to just go
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: ahead and resign on that front. So, no, you're stuck
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: with Fetterman through the end of, now his term's up
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: in 28, and we shall see what happens, right? But
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: he is, it is a sick, and it was designed
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: this way, right? The whole point is, is that you
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: didn't want the Senate to be at the whim of
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: sort of instant gratification, where mob rule can sort of
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: grab hold of things over a six-month period. The point
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: of having these longer terms was so they literally had
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: the political space to be what the founders intended, which
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: was the cooling saucer, which is why you could see
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: a senator Get elected under one scenario and one type
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: of atmosphere. Six years later, the atmosphere could completely change
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: and they may not fit that atmosphere at all, right?
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: You know, Fetterman was not an ordinary politician and that
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: was something that mattered a lot to Democrats in 2022
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: and in 2021, especially in the wake of Trump getting elected. Now,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: He might not– he's obviously not going to fit the
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: mood of where the Democratic electorate is going to be.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: But who knows? Maybe he fits the mood of where
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: Republicans want to go, which is they want to have
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: iconoclastic candidates or who knows. So I'm not going to
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: declare the end of Fetterman's political career here. But I
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: do get the sense he doesn't like being a senator.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: I think he enjoyed being the mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: a hell of a lot more than he's enjoyed either
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: being lieutenant governor or a U.S. senator. But sadly, no
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: recall election. But you can start the constitutional amendment for it, Letitia.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: All right. Happy week one. Next question comes from a
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: familiar emailer, Bill S. in Newburgh, Oregon. The fighting sixth,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: as he calls it. Who doesn't want their congressional district
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: known as the fighting whatever, right? Isn't that what Colbert
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: gave us? Everything was the fighting sixth. I'm in the
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: fighting eighth of Virginia. Happy week one. My favorite games
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: were UMass over Rutgers and Western Michigan almost over Michigan.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Certainly better than watching my Mariners lose to the A's.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: You often encourage politicians to speak American, so I'm curious.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: Why do you sometimes seem reluctant to plainly use the
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: word racism, whether discussing Vivek Ramaswamy with John Kasich or
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: Byron Donalds under performance in North Florida? Thanks. And go you,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: Bill S. It's a fair thing to point out. I
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: try to be careful about motive. Right. You know, it
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: looks like racism looks like lying. If I do it, I,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: I try to put it that way because I do think, um,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: there's certain words that when you accuse somebody of it,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: there's no, you don't unring the bell and, you know, it's, uh,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: I don't, I'm, I'm not trying to get people canceled. Um,
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: And I don't want to presume, you know, look, I
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: see the pattern. A person of color has a harder
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: time winning over a conservative constituency in the South. It
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: looks like a candidate of color has a problem winning
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: over a conservative constituency in the Midwest, right? In Michigan
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: and possibly in Ohio. But if you're talking 5%, of
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: an entire faction of an electorate, I don't want to
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: look like I'm painting an entire electorate as racist or
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: an entire party as racist. So you're fair to pick
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: that up. And you're right. I am cautious on certain words, racism,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: you know, accusing somebody of racism. I think it's easier
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: to say something is racist. You're behaving in the way
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: a racist would behave. I thought, I've always thought one
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: of the few positive legacies of Andrew Gillum in his
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: gubernatorial campaign in 18 is in this great retort. When
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis took issue with being called a racist, he said,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying you're a racist. I'm saying racists think
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: you're a racist. I think that's the line I try
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: to walk. And I'm sure I have failed. And I
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: understand some people like, well, you should soften. You got
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: to tell it like it is. Well, I think you
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: tell it like it is, but I don't like my
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: motives questioned. Some people will assume That I have a
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: certain take on him and they'll say, well, it's because
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: your wife's this or it's because your parents are that
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: or because your kids are this. And it's like, I
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: don't want motive to get in the way of the analysis. And,
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: you know, again, when you ring certain bells, you imply motive.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: It's why, you know, I famously didn't say liar to
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: Kellyanne Conway. I said falsehoods. Because again, it's motive. Maybe
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: they're that delusional and they actually believe they didn't commit
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: the murders. Maybe they actually believe that they only dreamed
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: of murdering their ex-wife. So it is there's always a 1%
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: chance that there's self-delusion in there and it's not motive
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: or whatever. So anyway, you can say I'm creating semantics
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: or I'm not But the minute you're that declarative, then
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: there's a whole group of people I'm trying to talk
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: to and listen to reason that may tune me out. So, look, man,
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: as I always say, I'm trying to widen my aperture
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: and I'm trying to widen the space here for us
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: to have the conversations we need to have to make
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: a better democracy and a better America. All right. Uh,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: by the way, I have to, uh, add you, you,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: you talked about UMass over Rutgers, which was fantastic. And the,
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: and the Western Michigan, Michigan game was just not a
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: well-played game. I think there's no doubt what the game
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: of the weekend was. And it's the Ole Miss Louisville game.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: That was something else. That was, that was two good offenses.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: I think two questionable defenses, I think. Um, SMU-FSU was
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: certainly close, but did not have what Louisville and Ole
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: Miss had in that. And in many ways, SMU-FSU felt
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: like a game where there was a good team making
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of mistakes, SMU, and a mediocre team not
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: knowing how to take advantage of opportunities in FSU. But
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: I have to say, I think my favorite game of
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: the weekend, and in fairness, you may have written this before,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: Louisville Ole Miss game. But I think that was, if
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: you're just pure entertainment value, game of the week was,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: I think, Louisville Ole Miss. All right. Greetings from Texas 4.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: If the midterms produce a 50-50 Senate and a Republican
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: senator later resigns, becomes incapacitated or otherwise unable to serve,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: what happens to control of the chamber? Would Republicans retain
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: control despite having one fewer senator or could control shift
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: to Democrats? Love the show and the college football talk.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: Canes looked fantastic. Can only imagine your thoughts on what
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: happened in Ann Arbor Saturday night, John. Well, hopefully you, uh,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: like what I said on my, uh, Monday pod about,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: I do think we've got to, there is something, there
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: is a fix we can make to increase, you know,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: to basically increase the credibility of officiating in college football.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: We got to take the conferences out of the, out
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: of being in charge of officials. Um, and the replay
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: and all of that stuff. Just get conferences out of it.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: Just one less conspiracy rabbit hole for people to go to. Well, look,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: we have provisions and you wait, the governor would replace
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: of the state. You got to appoint somebody. Now, let's
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: talk about the two places with two fairly old senators,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: one of whom is currently not been able to make
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: it to the floor of the Senate in a couple
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: of months where there's a Democratic governor. And in Iowa,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: where there is likely to be a Democratic governor. And
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: of course, if you just heard my top five list
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: with Iowa in there, you heard about the question Rob
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: Sand was asked about replacing Chuck Grassley. What would he do?
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: And he said, well, I'd appoint an independent, which would
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: only like that would be fascinating. Well, look, I mean, it's,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: you know, majority is decided by the party that has
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: the most senators with them. So if you're in a
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: 50-50 Senate and the scenario you describe happens, the two
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: likeliest candidates, right, that would really make this complicated. But
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: Kentucky's the most complicated because Kentucky legislature passed a law
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: saying that the governor has to replace with the party
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: of the deceased senator. But that has never been tested
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: in state courts. And I think if the state constitution
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: simply gives the governor the power of appointment. So I'm
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: not so sure. I think that if McConnell somehow– and look,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: McConnell is getting replaced. So it's less of an issue
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: going into the next Congress since he's not going to
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: be there. But with Grassley. you know, if we're going
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: to use that example, uh, he's up in 28, but
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: something happens from in 27, we're sitting in the 50,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: 50 Senate. What does Rob Sand do? Right. And what
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: does that independent do? Um, you know, I, you, you
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: know what the zeitgeist would be on the left. And
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: you know what the zeitgeist would be on the right there.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: It would, uh, it would put, it would be interesting
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: to see the, how sand would handle the pressure of
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: that moment. Um, But ultimately, there would be no vacancy.
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: The governor of the deceased senator immediately needs to appoint somebody.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: You saw Darlene Graham got appointed within, she was a senator,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: I think, within 36 hours. They had her already sworn
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: in with something that quick. So this is, you know,
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: that's how absolute the governor's power is to appoint a
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: temporary replacement. Now, Legislators could decide, you know, some states
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: you have to have a special election within 90 days.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: I think that's what Massachusetts did. Others, it's the next
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: federal election. But there would be no vacancy. It would
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: be an immediate filling. But. Right. Party of the governor,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: party of the person that, you know, if that differs,
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: that's when you start to see some quite a bit
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: of horse trading. All right. Last question for the. for
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: this episode. It's Anthony in California's 30th congressional district. He says,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping to become a member of the two-timers club here.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: I really got into college football last year in part
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: because of your podcast. Right on. Welcome. I want more
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: Californians into college football, and I'm glad to see Cal, UCLA, USC, Stanford,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: all starting to invest real dollars into football. So kudos.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: And he said, in part because of your podcast, and
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: it became something I love talking about with my brother,
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: who sadly passed away earlier this summer. I am so
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: sorry to hear that. So thank you for continuing to
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: be a source for me to learn from and enjoy
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: the sport. As a Steelers fan, which quarterback should I
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: be keeping an eye on this season if Pittsburgh ends
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: up looking for a first-round QB next year? Thanks, Anthony. Well,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: first of all, Anthony, I think you ought to... I think...
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: I'm weirdly bullish on Drew Aller, who is the backup
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: to Rodgers, who I think is going to start three
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: games this year, five games this year. What if Drew
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: Aller is just the type of sort of Pittsburgh quarterback
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: you've gotten used to that knows how to read a defense,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: play action pass, sort of, he's got a little Roethlisberger
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: in him. He's just sort of, you know, it's certainly
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: more of a 20th century type quarterback, not necessarily a
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: 21st century, but I say that, you know, what's the
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh way? You want to have a, When Pittsburgh's good,
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: they have a great offensive line, a great running game,
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: and a good quarterback. So I would like to see Aller.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: I'd like to see what he can do. But I
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: do think he has to have a good offensive line.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: But look, the quarterbacks, you know, here's what's happening. I
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: think you now, you know, the quarterback position has always
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: been incredibly important. And it's even more so over the
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: last 20 years. You are now getting a concentration of
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: great athletes who are choosing to be, you know, it
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: used to be, you didn't always put your best athlete
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: at quarterback. You might put in football, you might put
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: your best athlete at running back. You might put them
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: at wide receiver. And if you put it at quarterback,
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: it's because you ran a certain type of offense. Well,
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: now we've mainstreamed the idea of dual threat quarterbacks, quarterbacks
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: who could run, pass on the run and all those things.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: And so I just think We've– college feels like it's
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: never been deeper in the quarterback ranks and in quarterback development.
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: And I think the idea now that college quarterbacks are
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: going to stay in college because they can make good money, frankly,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: better money in college if you're a top quarterback than
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: the first couple of years as an NFL pro because
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: of the way they've structured their system. You're going to
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: get like guys like Bo Nix who had 60 starts
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: in college and certainly knew what the hell he was,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: you know, the learning curve was just, was, was, was
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: much shorter for him. And within, you know, two years, he's,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: he's guiding them as a, as a contender and a
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: playoff guy. So look, I think obviously I think Miami's quarterback,
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: Looks like he's got all the tools, just incredible touch,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: super accurate. And this is now his third stop where
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: he's impressed. I look at it, it's the same reason
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: why I'm so bullish on Cam Ward and back and
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: now Mensah is that he did this at Tulane under
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: one coaching staff. He did it at Duke under another
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: coaching staff. He's already doing it at Miami in our third.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: So what does that tell you? He processes information quickly, right?
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: Just like Cam Ward, he went through three different systems
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: and seemed to succeed and get better each year. Carson
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: Beck is now showing that ability to do that. I
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: think that in a weird way, these quarterbacks that could
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: go from different systems, that's who I want in my
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: NFL team, right? That means they're coachable. You know the
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: way how transient NFL coaching is, both at the top,
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: but particularly at the coordinator level, you're going to go
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: through different systems, right? And if you're not easily adaptable
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: to new systems, right? you're not going to be a
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: successful NFL quarterback. So I look at those guys and,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: you know, so Mensah looks like he's got an NFL
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: arm at Miami. Dante Moore looks like he's got it
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: at Oregon, but I'm not as sold on Moore yet
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: as others are. I think he's got all the tools,
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: but you can have a lot of tools, but it
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: may not all come together. Go watch a South Carolina game.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: And this kid, Lenora Sellers, he's another one. It's got
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: all this talent. You're just, You know, what happens if
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: he had a little bit more talent around him? But wow,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: does he got a lot. I'm not sure Levitt is
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: going to translate as well to the pros, which is
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: the kid who did great at LSU. And I worry
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: about Trinidad Chambliss' size a little bit. But boy, his
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: ability to throw on the run is really impressive as well. So,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: you know, if you're... I look at it as who
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: would fit the Steelers mindset, right? There's also... Like, I
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: always think there's just certain fits, right? Certain cultural fits, right?
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you, there's something about Arch Manning of the
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: Steelers that would feel correct. I don't know why I
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: think that, right? He's a big kid, right? In that sense,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: he's got a little Roethlisberger in him because he's also
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: mobile the way both Roethlisberger and Bradshaw were. So, you know,
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: maybe it's Arch that you should be focused on. But
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: I'm going to end with where I began. Don't give
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: up on Drew Allard. You never know when your future
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: is sitting on your own bench, right? How many, you know,
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: just ask the Seattle Seahawks. I guess that's like ask
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: the San Francisco 49ers and the random seventh round quarterback
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: that turned out to be a franchise quarterback at Brock Purdy.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: So it's, and there's something about Allard, Penn State guy, Steelers.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It just, maybe I want it to work.
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: Because it just feels like such the right fit for
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh fan base, right? That he's got the grittiness
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: that you want for a Steelers quarterback. So let's not
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: give up on Drew Aller just yet. All right, with that,
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: welcome back to the Wednesday podcast. So I'm giving you,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: we're giving you updates every single day of the week. Mondays, Tuesdays,
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: it's Super Tuesday with Chris Saliza. Wednesday, another standalone podcast. Thursday,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: another standalone podcast. And of course, on the weekend, you've
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: got Newsphere. So plenty of places to get what I
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: hope is a little better informed about American politics, however
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: it looks on any given day. With that, I appreciate
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: you coming here. This podcast is politics for the rest
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: of us. I'll see you in 24 hours.