Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Sunday 12/28/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:07Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:17Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:19Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
- 0:24Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
- 0:27Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
- 0:37Speaker 1: a new pink. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man,
- 0:42Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
- 0:44Speaker 1: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:46Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:51Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. I don't even
- 0:53Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
- 0:57Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
- 0:59Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die, at least
- 1:03Speaker 1: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go
- 1:06Speaker 1: well for me. Own five. The worst month that I've
- 1:10Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
- 1:13Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
- 1:15Speaker 1: the slumprase, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
- 1:20Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
- 1:24Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody's towed back with you Toadstool Sports. It
- 1:36Speaker 1: is Sunday, December twenty eighth. Thanks everybody who hung out
- 1:40Speaker 1: for the NFL Week seventeen edition last night. You can
- 1:44Speaker 1: go check that out still and see my analysis there,
- 1:47Speaker 1: or check out my instagram for the analysis on the
- 1:49Speaker 1: two additional plays I'm going to give out, which we'll
- 1:52Speaker 1: make it three for the NFL Week. We are one
- 1:55Speaker 1: to zero with the Baltimore Ravens getting the win last night,
- 1:59Speaker 1: so I'm happy about that pretty easy win there. I
- 2:02Speaker 1: know Malik Willis got hurt in the game for Green Bay,
- 2:05Speaker 1: but I still think Baltimore was well on their way
- 2:07Speaker 1: to just winning that game anyway. It was just an
- 2:09Speaker 1: outright wire to wire win for Baltimore. Not a whole
- 2:13Speaker 1: lot else to say about that green Bay. I mean,
- 2:16Speaker 1: maybe the worst defensive performance in the last few years.
- 2:20Speaker 1: That was kind of surprising. Derrick Henry absolutely demolished them.
- 2:25Speaker 1: Whatever you want to say about it, we got it right.
- 2:27Speaker 1: So I'm happy about that. We got super lucky in
- 2:30Speaker 1: the bowl game. I thought that was it. That was
- 2:33Speaker 1: a dead one. The San Diego State their defense didn't
- 2:37Speaker 1: show up, new defensive you know, new defensive play caller
- 2:41Speaker 1: there because the DC had left. I still kind of
- 2:44Speaker 1: liked it because of the disappointment. I mean I did
- 2:46Speaker 1: like it because of the disappointment factor and whatever. One
- 2:49Speaker 1: thing that was correct was that in North Texas there
- 2:51Speaker 1: weren't any better defensively really than San Diego State was.
- 2:55Speaker 1: So the game wound up being a shootout, which really
- 2:58Speaker 1: that's the type of game North Texas wants. So I
- 3:00Speaker 1: thought it was over. North Texas was up I think
- 3:03Speaker 1: forty two to twenty in the fourth quarter. It was
- 3:06Speaker 1: fairly close at half time. It was an eight point
- 3:08Speaker 1: game at half time, forty two to twenty in the
- 3:11Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and then San Diego State, Yeah, they scored
- 3:15Speaker 1: a bunch more. San Diego State actually lost their quarterback
- 3:17Speaker 1: in the game, but they're not really a passing offense,
- 3:21Speaker 1: so they were able to still recover from that get
- 3:24Speaker 1: a lot of yards on the ground, and then the
- 3:27Speaker 1: way that they covered was a bit ridiculous. They were
- 3:30Speaker 1: still down two scores. Late in the game, they scored
- 3:33Speaker 1: a touchdown and they went for a two point conversion
- 3:36Speaker 1: that would have cut it to seven. To push for
- 3:38Speaker 1: all the seven betters out there. I actually found a
- 3:41Speaker 1: seven and a half if you had waited until closer
- 3:44Speaker 1: to game time, which I probably should have explicitly said this,
- 3:47Speaker 1: because I said you could wait and at least find
- 3:49Speaker 1: the seven on it. But the number kept going up,
- 3:51Speaker 1: like the public was on North Texas. It was seven
- 3:54Speaker 1: and a half when the game went off. But yeah,
- 4:00Speaker 1: Diego State, if they got that two point conversion, they
- 4:02Speaker 1: would have been down by exactly seven and covering the
- 4:05Speaker 1: seven and a half. They failed to get it, but
- 4:07Speaker 1: they still got the ball back one more time, got
- 4:10Speaker 1: down the field again and they got a questionable touchdown after.
- 4:14Speaker 1: I mean they should have had the touchdown anyway. I
- 4:17Speaker 1: mean they had like second in goal with the one
- 4:19Speaker 1: they tried to run it in. They got stopped, and
- 4:21Speaker 1: then they had well they had only had one more
- 4:23Speaker 1: play and they only had time for one more play really,
- 4:25Speaker 1: and they did get it in, but the runner like
- 4:29Speaker 1: reached over the goal line and it kind of got
- 4:31Speaker 1: the ball got smacked backwards and the refs San Diego State.
- 4:36Speaker 1: It would have been like game over, like San Diego
- 4:38Speaker 1: State recovered it, but you know time would have run out.
- 4:43Speaker 1: But the refs still were like, uh yeah, he reached
- 4:47Speaker 1: over the goal line, it's a touchdown. I'm like, okay,
- 4:51Speaker 1: fine cover the spread baby. Uh So they lose by two,
- 4:55Speaker 1: and then we did have a I believe a right
- 4:59Speaker 1: side winner on the scene Jose Sharks. I mean, they
- 5:01Speaker 1: were never trailing in that game, and that's when you
- 5:04Speaker 1: have an underdog and they're never trailing, obviously you got
- 5:07Speaker 1: to say that it's the right side. They were the
- 5:09Speaker 1: less physical team in the game, but they were the
- 5:11Speaker 1: better offensive team in the game. They had more shots,
- 5:14Speaker 1: They had a multi score lead multiple times in the game.
- 5:17Speaker 1: They let it slip to one a couple of times.
- 5:19Speaker 1: It was back down to a four to three lead,
- 5:22Speaker 1: I think while I was doing the NFL Show last night.
- 5:24Speaker 1: Although that goal was a shorthanded goal from Vancouver, roach's
- 5:29Speaker 1: kind of BS. Shorthanded goals are almost always BS. And
- 5:33Speaker 1: then there was an empty net goal at the end
- 5:34Speaker 1: for San Jose, but they won six to three, so
- 5:37Speaker 1: pretty convincing win regardless. So we got that. We're gonna
- 5:42Speaker 1: have a few plays today. We got the two NFL
- 5:44Speaker 1: plays I gave it on the show last night. I'm
- 5:46Speaker 1: gonna give out two college basketball players and one hockey play,
- 5:50Speaker 1: and I'm skipping NBA completely for the second straight day.
- 5:52Speaker 1: Even though I nets whispered correctly yesterday. Man, the nets
- 5:57Speaker 1: went out right. I had that game right, and I
- 5:58Speaker 1: had the Utah game correct as well. I just didn't like.
- 6:04Speaker 1: I just still didn't love the spot for those two teams.
- 6:06Speaker 1: I just hated the spot that their opponents were in.
- 6:09Speaker 1: More so, I don't know, Jeffrey, what's up? Thanks for
- 6:12Speaker 1: hanging out Avs and nights. I don't even know what
- 6:15Speaker 1: happened in that game. I wasn't watching. I gotta fix
- 6:18Speaker 1: my camera a little bit here. It's too high, man.
- 6:21Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe I'll have to do it after
- 6:23Speaker 1: the show. We got to get into this. There is
- 6:25Speaker 1: college basketball. There's a lot of non Division one teams
- 6:29Speaker 1: playing against Division one teams, which makes my job easier
- 6:32Speaker 1: because those games are not usually lined. So we just
- 6:36Speaker 1: skipped them, and oh yeah, let's we're gonna have a
- 6:39Speaker 1: best bet right off the bat, because I just do
- 6:41Speaker 1: these in order. So let's do it. Man in the
- 6:47Speaker 1: two PM slate here Winthrop and Texas Tech. If you
- 6:51Speaker 1: know me and you looked at these teams schedules, you
- 6:53Speaker 1: probably know where I'm going with this already. We're gonna
- 6:56Speaker 1: take Winthrop plus seventeen and a half I think is
- 6:59Speaker 1: what the number is here. We're gonna fade Texas Tech
- 7:01Speaker 1: number fifteen in the country. I mean, I think they're
- 7:04Speaker 1: a little bit overrated. Ken Bomb will tell you that
- 7:06Speaker 1: he has them in like the twenty twenty something range
- 7:10Speaker 1: in the country. Obviously, they're still a good team. Yes,
- 7:13Speaker 1: they're undefeated at home. Winthrop is not a bad team though,
- 7:16Speaker 1: even though they're sitting at eight and six, they face
- 7:19Speaker 1: some pretty difficult schedule, and Ken Bomb has them like,
- 7:21Speaker 1: I think, maybe even inside the top one hundred. If not,
- 7:24Speaker 1: he has them like just outside of it. He has
- 7:27Speaker 1: them at one twenty two, my mistake. But he also
- 7:29Speaker 1: has them as the second unluckiest team in all of
- 7:32Speaker 1: Division one basketball Winthrop meaning that they have severely underperformed
- 7:38Speaker 1: based on like Basically, that means they've lost a ton
- 7:42Speaker 1: of close games, games that were that probably should have
- 7:45Speaker 1: gone their way that have not gone their way Texas Tech.
- 7:49Speaker 1: I mean, the entire thing has to do with the
- 7:51Speaker 1: spot that they're in. Man, these teams are coming out
- 7:54Speaker 1: of breaks and you know, out of the holiday break,
- 7:56Speaker 1: and you know, I talk about when a team went
- 7:58Speaker 1: into the break hot, it can like disrupt their momentum.
- 8:02Speaker 1: Both of these teams, I think one going into the break.
- 8:04Speaker 1: But you can't overlook what Texas Tech just did going
- 8:07Speaker 1: into the break. Man, they beat Duke. Duke was an
- 8:10Speaker 1: undefeated team, top three team in the country. They're legitimately
- 8:14Speaker 1: one of the top teams in the country, and Texas
- 8:16Speaker 1: Tech beat them by one, and that's how they went
- 8:19Speaker 1: into the holiday break. You gotta think they were just
- 8:22Speaker 1: basking in that the whole time. That was in neutral
- 8:24Speaker 1: site game, so I think that was at Madison Square
- 8:26Speaker 1: Garden where the crowd was going to be Duke friendly
- 8:29Speaker 1: there too, really really nice win for Texas Tech. You
- 8:34Speaker 1: gotta think that this entire week that was last Saturday,
- 8:36Speaker 1: they're gonna be just again just kind of basking in that,
- 8:39Speaker 1: celebrating it the whole time over the holidays. Now they
- 8:42Speaker 1: face Winthrop and then on Saturday they start Pig twelve
- 8:46Speaker 1: play with an Oklahoma State team it seems to be
- 8:49Speaker 1: on the rise, by the way, and then Houston after that,
- 8:52Speaker 1: so this is a sandwich spot. Winthrop is not as
- 8:55Speaker 1: bad as the record looks. They're a pretty competitive team.
- 8:58Speaker 1: We've seen them look pretty good some other games this year.
- 9:01Speaker 1: They lost by seven at Nebraska, they lost by one
- 9:04Speaker 1: at Arkansas. Those are not bad losses whatsoever. They had
- 9:08Speaker 1: a really horrible loss at Coastal Carolina. I have no
- 9:11Speaker 1: idea what that was about. A six point loss to
- 9:14Speaker 1: George Mason, who we're gonna talk about later in the show,
- 9:16Speaker 1: is not a bad loss either. They lost to Coastal
- 9:19Speaker 1: Carolina twice. Actually, I don't even understand that, man. I
- 9:23Speaker 1: think it's just that I think both teams are South
- 9:25Speaker 1: Carolina located. I think Coastal Carolina just plays their absolute
- 9:30Speaker 1: ass off against their in state big brother. Like I
- 9:33Speaker 1: don't really see another explanation for that. So Winthrop has
- 9:36Speaker 1: kind of been all over the map here as far
- 9:37Speaker 1: as what they've done. But the fact that they were
- 9:40Speaker 1: really competitive against the two good teams that they played
- 9:43Speaker 1: Arkansas Nebraska leads me to believe that they should be
- 9:45Speaker 1: able to be competitive enough in this game to come
- 9:49Speaker 1: within seventeen and a half. Yeah, Texas second is pretty good,
- 9:52Speaker 1: but they also play slow, and I talk about that
- 9:55Speaker 1: when a team's gonna slow the pace down makes it
- 9:58Speaker 1: a little bit more difficult for them to cover a
- 10:00Speaker 1: large number like this. Winthrop likes to play a little
- 10:02Speaker 1: bit faster, but they're kind of like a mid tempo team,
- 10:06Speaker 1: so if the game is slowed down, I don't think
- 10:08Speaker 1: it will really like completely throw them off or whatever.
- 10:11Speaker 1: You know, Winthrop's gonna show up for this one. They're
- 10:14Speaker 1: coming out of the break. They went into the break
- 10:15Speaker 1: by just beating a non Division one team, so I
- 10:18Speaker 1: think they're gonna show up for this one. It's one
- 10:20Speaker 1: of the biggest games remaining on their schedule. We're gonna
- 10:23Speaker 1: go with it. The numbers slipping down a little bit
- 10:27Speaker 1: from seventeen and a half to seventeen, the total is
- 10:29Speaker 1: higher than I would like it to be when I'm
- 10:31Speaker 1: taking an underdog in the low one sixties. I don't
- 10:34Speaker 1: really know why, but it is dropping. It's dropped like
- 10:39Speaker 1: five and a half points down to one sixty two
- 10:41Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know, but I'm playing the
- 10:44Speaker 1: spot here. Winthrop plus the points is to play in
- 10:47Speaker 1: that one. Mister Pinsey, what's up man, Thanks for hanging out. Tyson,
- 10:51Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. I like the
- 10:54Speaker 1: toad the frog emoji's going on here, all right? If
- 10:58Speaker 1: you want to talk about any of these other games,
- 10:59Speaker 1: I will, But these games are just not interesting. I
- 11:02Speaker 1: know I usually talk about the Boston games. I'll talk
- 11:06Speaker 1: about my guys at BC. I guess BC went into
- 11:11Speaker 1: the break beating fairly Dickinson, which is fairly uh. I
- 11:16Speaker 1: don't know what I want to say about that. It's
- 11:18Speaker 1: it's fairly non noteworthy. I guess I should say, who cares?
- 11:24Speaker 1: But they do start ACC play next against Georgia tax
- 11:27Speaker 1: so you could argue this is a look ahead spot.
- 11:29Speaker 1: They're playing against Lemoyne. Lamoyne. They're not good, but I
- 11:34Speaker 1: mean they have been a little bit better than expected
- 11:37Speaker 1: this year, if you want to say that. They'll probably
- 11:39Speaker 1: step it up for a game against an ACC team
- 11:41Speaker 1: that is one of the big boys, but not a
- 11:44Speaker 1: very good big boy. So they're they're a bad big boy.
- 11:50Speaker 1: PC is not a very good team. Right now, They're
- 11:52Speaker 1: only a thirteen point favorite here. It's a low total
- 11:54Speaker 1: down to one hundred and forty six and a half.
- 11:57Speaker 1: I would take the points with Lemoyne in that one,
- 11:59Speaker 1: but I don't feel strongly about it. Liberty at FIU
- 12:04Speaker 1: is an interesting one. This is actually the start of
- 12:06Speaker 1: conference play in the Conference USA. I'm pretty sure Liberty
- 12:10Speaker 1: they're one of the name teams in Conference USA, and
- 12:13Speaker 1: we know this. They've been one of the better teams
- 12:15Speaker 1: in this conference for a while, basically since I think
- 12:18Speaker 1: they moved into this conference from the a Sun. Liberty
- 12:21Speaker 1: could be in a let down here though, even though
- 12:23Speaker 1: I know this is the conference opener, which is kind
- 12:25Speaker 1: of my hesitation with it. But they just beat Dayton
- 12:29Speaker 1: going into the Breakman. That's a big win going into
- 12:32Speaker 1: Dayton and beating them. Dayton was a fairly big favorite
- 12:35Speaker 1: in that game, and Liberty got the job done won
- 12:38Speaker 1: that one. They only have Kenissan next, though. I don't
- 12:42Speaker 1: really know if kennisaw is going to be caused for
- 12:44Speaker 1: a look ahead. And KENNISA has been one of the
- 12:46Speaker 1: better teams in this conference recently though, so maybe they
- 12:49Speaker 1: will slightly look ahead to Kennisallan. I mean, FIU hasn't
- 12:53Speaker 1: really done much of anything in this conference, so I
- 12:57Speaker 1: expect FYU to show up for this. I mean this
- 12:59Speaker 1: is their conference home opener. They went into the break
- 13:02Speaker 1: coming off of a win over some non Division one
- 13:05Speaker 1: team TCJ. Whoever the hell that is Trinity College of Jacksonville. Yeah,
- 13:11Speaker 1: all right, in this case, Jacksonville, Florida, I think not Jacksonville, Alabama,
- 13:16Speaker 1: Florida International. You know they're gonna show up for this
- 13:19Speaker 1: game against Liberty. And it almost looks too easy to
- 13:23Speaker 1: play Liberty in this game, seeing that they have the
- 13:25Speaker 1: better record and whatever, They're only four and a half
- 13:27Speaker 1: point favorite. I would take the points with FIU in
- 13:30Speaker 1: this one, although the money seems to be indicating otherwise.
- 13:33Speaker 1: Eighty seven percent of tickets, only eighty one percent of
- 13:35Speaker 1: the cash on FIU. But do you really believe that
- 13:38Speaker 1: FIU is a public dog in this scenario? What public
- 13:43Speaker 1: better is going to be playing FIU in this game.
- 13:46Speaker 1: I don't think that's the case, So I would lean
- 13:48Speaker 1: towards taking the points there based on my situational analysis.
- 13:52Speaker 1: There one is where the totals at right now, not
- 13:55Speaker 1: a high total at all. We got Northern Colorado again.
- 14:00Speaker 1: Colorado and a Little Brother Big Brother matchup in the
- 14:03Speaker 1: afternoon here. Now, I talked about Colorado yesterday. I think yeah,
- 14:09Speaker 1: because Stanford. I was correct about the Stanford game yesterday too.
- 14:12Speaker 1: By the way, cal State Northridge did cover that number.
- 14:16Speaker 1: Stanford won and did not cover Colorado's coming up. That
- 14:20Speaker 1: game against Stanford, pretty big game. It was a close game,
- 14:23Speaker 1: back and forth. They wound up losing by nine. Now
- 14:27Speaker 1: Colorado plays Northern Colorado and they start Big Twelve play
- 14:31Speaker 1: with Arizona State on January third, So this does look
- 14:35Speaker 1: like kind of a sandwich spot here playing this game
- 14:38Speaker 1: between two Power Conference teams. They're playing a little brother
- 14:42Speaker 1: who you know is gonna get up for this game,
- 14:44Speaker 1: and not a bad team either. Northern Colorado. They're probably
- 14:47Speaker 1: the best team in the Big Sky right now, so
- 14:50Speaker 1: and you know they're gonna get up for the game
- 14:51Speaker 1: against Colorado. So I would look towards Northern Colorado and
- 14:55Speaker 1: this one in Northern Colorado. You remember we faded them
- 14:58Speaker 1: in their last game against and we played them the
- 15:01Speaker 1: game before that and we won both. We took them
- 15:04Speaker 1: against Texas Tech, who were fading today. Everything's going around
- 15:08Speaker 1: in circles, man. They caught Texas Tech in a bad spot.
- 15:12Speaker 1: So that's another indicator for today. By the way that
- 15:15Speaker 1: Texas Tech has failed to cover in some of these
- 15:17Speaker 1: games in spots similar to what they're in today. Northern
- 15:21Speaker 1: Colorado stepped it up for that game they covered. They
- 15:24Speaker 1: came off that big game. It was actually closer than
- 15:26Speaker 1: the final looked, and we faded them and they lost
- 15:28Speaker 1: to in state little brother Denver. And part of that
- 15:32Speaker 1: handicap was that Northern Colorado had their big brother on
- 15:35Speaker 1: deck Colorado after the holidays. So yeah, I think they're
- 15:38Speaker 1: gonna show up for the game. I would take the
- 15:40Speaker 1: points if I was gonna play this one. I am
- 15:42Speaker 1: not going to do it. But Colorado up from fourteen
- 15:45Speaker 1: and a half to fifteen. The money looks like it's
- 15:47Speaker 1: on Colorado again. I just I don't know if I
- 15:50Speaker 1: buy these these numbers, man, I don't know. I don't
- 15:52Speaker 1: want to stop looking at these numbers because I use
- 15:54Speaker 1: them as a guide. But eighty seven percent of the
- 15:56Speaker 1: tickets on Northern Colorado. Don't know if I buy that number,
- 16:01Speaker 1: and then sixty four percent of the cash on Colorado,
- 16:04Speaker 1: maybe it's one of these false early moves to drive
- 16:06Speaker 1: the number up, because I don't imagine that. I mean,
- 16:10Speaker 1: first of all, I don't think that the eighty seven percent
- 16:12Speaker 1: tickets are really public better as getting involved on an
- 16:15Speaker 1: NFL Sunday. You think they're coming in and playing Northern Colorado,
- 16:19Speaker 1: I doubt it, so again you have to try to
- 16:22Speaker 1: figure out, like what is actually going on in the
- 16:24Speaker 1: market here. But I would take the points with Northern
- 16:27Speaker 1: Colorado if I was gonna play that one. Kel State
- 16:30Speaker 1: Fullerton and SMU was an interesting game as well. Cal
- 16:34Speaker 1: State Fullerton just took Oklahoma State to the wire. Man,
- 16:38Speaker 1: Oklahoma State was a massive favorite in this game, even
- 16:41Speaker 1: though I don't think Oklahoma State's as good as their
- 16:44Speaker 1: record looks. I think Big twelve plays starting soon in
- 16:47Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's not gonna look as good once conference play starts.
- 16:50Speaker 1: I've had an easy schedule, but still they were a
- 16:53Speaker 1: massive favorite at home against cal State Fullerton, and Fullerton
- 16:57Speaker 1: almost pulled off the upset in this game. I think
- 17:00Speaker 1: Oklahoma State they had the big lead, they got complacent.
- 17:03Speaker 1: They were a one loss team they still are, I think,
- 17:06Speaker 1: and they were undefeated at home, which I think they
- 17:07Speaker 1: also still are because they did win this game. But
- 17:10Speaker 1: we look at what happened in this game. Oklahoma State
- 17:12Speaker 1: had a huge lead into the second half, and then
- 17:15Speaker 1: they just got complacent multiple times, and Fullerton refused to
- 17:19Speaker 1: go away and kept coming back and the game was
- 17:22Speaker 1: within two points in the final minutes of the game.
- 17:25Speaker 1: So Fullerton went all out in that game. Now, they
- 17:29Speaker 1: did have the holiday break after that, so that can
- 17:31Speaker 1: kind of help them. Like if they were playing these
- 17:33Speaker 1: two games in like a span of a few days,
- 17:36Speaker 1: I might I might be more likely to fade Fullerton here,
- 17:39Speaker 1: but the fact they had a break kind of negates
- 17:42Speaker 1: it a little bit, Like it does help them out
- 17:44Speaker 1: a little bit, and they're not going to overlook SMU.
- 17:46Speaker 1: They're playing another one of the big boys here. The
- 17:48Speaker 1: question is just how much did they have left in
- 17:50Speaker 1: the tank after that? For SMU, they're coming out of
- 17:55Speaker 1: the break as well, All these teams are. They went
- 17:57Speaker 1: into the break with one win against Central Arkasaw who cares.
- 18:03Speaker 1: But I do worry about SMU here as well, because, yeah,
- 18:05Speaker 1: they got cal State Fullerton here. They might not totally
- 18:08Speaker 1: pay attention to this, even though yeah they might see
- 18:10Speaker 1: what Fullerton just did to Oklahoma State and show up
- 18:14Speaker 1: for that reason. But it's gonna be difficult to play
- 18:17Speaker 1: SMU here because they have a pretty major look ahead
- 18:19Speaker 1: to ACC play against UNCS starting on January third. They
- 18:25Speaker 1: start ACC play with North Carolina Clemson a duke right
- 18:28Speaker 1: out of the gate. That is a gauntlet, so it
- 18:31Speaker 1: is a potential look ahead for SMU. So I am
- 18:34Speaker 1: skipping this one. If you forced me to give you
- 18:37Speaker 1: a lien on that, I would lay the points with SMU.
- 18:40Speaker 1: SMU is up from twenty to twenty one. I think
- 18:42Speaker 1: what a team did in their previous game matters more
- 18:45Speaker 1: than what they have looking ahead to again, because what
- 18:48Speaker 1: just happened to them is both mental and physical, and
- 18:52Speaker 1: the look ahead is only mental, so it's easier to overcome.
- 18:55Speaker 1: Eighty five percent of the tickets are on Fullerton, sixty
- 18:58Speaker 1: percent of the cash on SMU. All right, we got
- 19:03Speaker 1: Charleston Southern at Richmond. Charleston Southern. They're coming off a
- 19:08Speaker 1: big performance against in state big brother. I believe firm,
- 19:12Speaker 1: and I believe they consider themselves to be a little
- 19:14Speaker 1: brother to Furman. Charleston Southern was a dog in that
- 19:17Speaker 1: game on the road. They played pretty close against Furman.
- 19:22Speaker 1: Then they did go into the break after that. Now,
- 19:24Speaker 1: coming up of that, they could be maybe in a
- 19:26Speaker 1: hangover spots still after that, Although I don't really see
- 19:29Speaker 1: them overlooking Richmond though, because Richmond's been really good this
- 19:32Speaker 1: year too, So take all that for what it's worth.
- 19:36Speaker 1: Richmond went into the break with an easy win over
- 19:38Speaker 1: a bad team the Citadel. They do have a look
- 19:42Speaker 1: ahead to a conference play beginning after this where they
- 19:45Speaker 1: start conference play with a decent opponent in George Washington,
- 19:50Speaker 1: So we will see what happens in that game. If
- 19:52Speaker 1: I was gonna play that game out slightly lean towards
- 19:55Speaker 1: laying the points with Richmond, though, Richmond up from thirteen
- 19:58Speaker 1: to thirteen with juice in that one. Okay, next up,
- 20:04Speaker 1: we have my other best bet in basketball. Let's do it.
- 20:11Speaker 1: We were gonna lay the points in this one with
- 20:13Speaker 1: a double ditch a favorite, George Mason. We're gonna lay it.
- 20:17Speaker 1: I see fifteen and a half, I see sixteen. I
- 20:19Speaker 1: see sixteen and a half out there. Hopefully that number
- 20:23Speaker 1: doesn't matter once you get into this point range. Hopefully
- 20:25Speaker 1: a point doesn't really matter. We'll see. But we're laying
- 20:29Speaker 1: the points with George Mason against Pennsylvania. Both these teams
- 20:33Speaker 1: are coming out of the break, but look at what
- 20:34Speaker 1: penn did going into the break. Man They went to Rutgers.
- 20:38Speaker 1: I know Rutgers is not good as far as Big
- 20:41Speaker 1: ten teams are concerned, but they're still a lot better
- 20:43Speaker 1: than Penn, and Penn almost beat them out, right, Man,
- 20:47Speaker 1: Rutgers is a big favorite in this game, and Penn
- 20:50Speaker 1: stepped it up for this game. I mean, it's always
- 20:52Speaker 1: big if you're a lowly IVY league team like Penn
- 20:56Speaker 1: and you step it up for a game against a
- 20:57Speaker 1: big ten team. And Penn actually led them majority of
- 21:00Speaker 1: this game too, which is crazy, including leading the game
- 21:03Speaker 1: by six with a minute forty one to go and
- 21:07Speaker 1: they lost the game. That is a brutal way to
- 21:10Speaker 1: lose that, man, And that's the way they went into
- 21:12Speaker 1: the holidays. I could see that hangover happening here. Man,
- 21:16Speaker 1: I could see that maybe lingering into this game. Yeah,
- 21:18Speaker 1: George Mason is good and ideally you're gonna want to
- 21:20Speaker 1: get up for the game, but I just don't know
- 21:23Speaker 1: how they bounced back from that. That was a huge performance,
- 21:26Speaker 1: soe they almost pulled off that big upset, And for
- 21:28Speaker 1: George Mason, I think they will show up focus here
- 21:31Speaker 1: because they just went into the break playing pretty poorly
- 21:35Speaker 1: against Loyola Maryland. This is a game where George Mason
- 21:38Speaker 1: was a big favorite. They're a one loss team, they're
- 21:40Speaker 1: undefeated at home. They came into this game a huge favorite,
- 21:43Speaker 1: and I think they kind of got a little bit
- 21:47Speaker 1: comfortable in the second half, let's say, or actually, I
- 21:51Speaker 1: don't even know if I would say that, because they
- 21:52Speaker 1: weren't even winning. Actually they were losing the game at halftime.
- 21:55Speaker 1: They did take the lead later in the game, and
- 21:58Speaker 1: they had a decent lead later in the game, but
- 22:00Speaker 1: Loyle and Maryland did not go away. So George Mason
- 22:03Speaker 1: got a serious scare here as a big favorite. And
- 22:05Speaker 1: you know, I like to play on teams that are
- 22:09Speaker 1: in a situation like that. That just took a scare
- 22:12Speaker 1: as a big favorite, and they skaped with the win
- 22:14Speaker 1: because it like shocks them back into focus, like they
- 22:17Speaker 1: know they have to play better in the next game.
- 22:20Speaker 1: So it all lines up pretty well, I think for
- 22:22Speaker 1: a play on George Mason in this one, that's what
- 22:24Speaker 1: we're gonna do. George Mason does play slow, so I
- 22:27Speaker 1: know it's not ideal necessary to lay points like this.
- 22:31Speaker 1: They're up from fifteen to sixteen and a half low
- 22:34Speaker 1: ish total of one forty seven. But on the other hand,
- 22:38Speaker 1: Penn has a horrible defense. Penn plays terribly defensively, so
- 22:42Speaker 1: they're much better offensively than defensively. So George Mason should
- 22:46Speaker 1: be able to score some points in this one. And
- 22:50Speaker 1: Penn actually likes to play faster, so I actually think
- 22:52Speaker 1: if George Mason slows the pace down it will throw
- 22:55Speaker 1: Pen out of their elements a bit. So I think
- 22:58Speaker 1: George Mason will be able to get is done. So
- 23:00Speaker 1: that's what we're gonna do. We're gonna lay the points
- 23:03Speaker 1: with the man. George Mason. Also not a bad school,
- 23:07Speaker 1: by the way, a school that has had some good
- 23:10Speaker 1: economists among the ranks, like the late great Walter Williams.
- 23:17Speaker 1: All Right, Santa Clara and Oregon State is an interesting one.
- 23:22Speaker 1: Is West Coast Conference play starts. Feels weird that Oregon
- 23:26Speaker 1: State not a pack twelve team anymore. Now. Santa Clara,
- 23:30Speaker 1: they're actually a pretty solid team, probably better than they look,
- 23:33Speaker 1: and they're coming off kind of an ugly loss to
- 23:35Speaker 1: loyala Chicago. I mean, we know loyal Chicago. I mean
- 23:38Speaker 1: I thought that they might improve a bit as the
- 23:41Speaker 1: season goes on, but they had been massively underperforming and
- 23:44Speaker 1: had not been having a good season. That was a
- 23:46Speaker 1: nice win for Loyal in Chicago, But on the other hand,
- 23:49Speaker 1: it was kind of an ugly loss for Santa Clara.
- 23:51Speaker 1: They were a favorite in that game, so that's how
- 23:54Speaker 1: they went into the break. I kind of expect them
- 23:56Speaker 1: to show up for a game against Oregon State, and
- 23:58Speaker 1: now that Oregon State has been in this conference for
- 24:00Speaker 1: a year, Santa Clara is not as unfamiliar with going
- 24:03Speaker 1: to this venue. Oregon State not exactly a great team,
- 24:08Speaker 1: and they went into the break on a good note.
- 24:10Speaker 1: They actually pulled off an upset at Arizona State, so
- 24:13Speaker 1: that was a big win for them against Arizona State
- 24:16Speaker 1: against a former Pac twelve team that is now in
- 24:19Speaker 1: the Big Twelve. So Oregon State I think kind of
- 24:21Speaker 1: plays with a chip on their shoulder against teams like
- 24:25Speaker 1: that that moved on to a bigger conference from the
- 24:27Speaker 1: Pac twelve, where Oregon State kind of got left behind,
- 24:30Speaker 1: big win for them. I would lean towards Santa Clara
- 24:34Speaker 1: in this game. I think it could be a letdown
- 24:35Speaker 1: spot for Oregon State, could be a bounce back spot
- 24:38Speaker 1: for Santa Clara. My worry is still that well, both
- 24:42Speaker 1: teams are still going to probably show up for this
- 24:44Speaker 1: because you're coming out of the break, you're starting conference way.
- 24:46Speaker 1: Both teams know that they're playing a big game here.
- 24:51Speaker 1: They're facing, you know, a decent conference opponent here. The
- 24:54Speaker 1: initial money did drive Santa Clara up from four and
- 24:57Speaker 1: a half to six, but now it looks like the
- 24:59Speaker 1: money is making it back on Oregon State ninety five
- 25:02Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash on
- 25:05Speaker 1: Santa Clara. So they're turning into kind of a public
- 25:08Speaker 1: road favorite here, which you know, I mean, the public's
- 25:11Speaker 1: not gonna be looking at these games much at all,
- 25:13Speaker 1: but that I kind of buy more than some of
- 25:16Speaker 1: these other games that if the public is looking at
- 25:18Speaker 1: this game, they would look towards Santa Clara, probably because
- 25:21Speaker 1: they have the better record, but I think it might
- 25:23Speaker 1: be the right side in this game. So my opinion
- 25:26Speaker 1: is also on the Santa Clara side in that one.
- 25:28Speaker 1: I would probably lay it, but not a strong opinion.
- 25:33Speaker 1: Old dominion at Maryland old dominion probably not quite as
- 25:39Speaker 1: bad as this record looks, but they were coming off
- 25:41Speaker 1: an ugly loss that aforementioned Coastal Carolina team. I'm pretty
- 25:44Speaker 1: sure ODU was a home favorite in that game, and
- 25:47Speaker 1: they lost, and that's how they went into the break.
- 25:49Speaker 1: Bad loss. So I expect them to show up coming
- 25:52Speaker 1: out of the break. They're gonna show up against an
- 25:54Speaker 1: not any Oh no, I almost said, acc No. Big
- 25:57Speaker 1: Ten is where Maryland is now, Man, show my age here, man.
- 26:00Speaker 1: I don't even know where these teams are anymore, what
- 26:02Speaker 1: conferences they're in, but they're a Power Conference team. Maryland
- 26:06Speaker 1: is so old. Dominion's gonna step up their game for that.
- 26:09Speaker 1: It's also Virginia versus Maryland, you know, if that's a thing.
- 26:13Speaker 1: I don't know. Maryland hasn't really been that good this
- 26:16Speaker 1: year for a Power Conference team. They've played a gauntlet
- 26:18Speaker 1: of a schedule though, although they just haven't stepped up
- 26:21Speaker 1: well in class. They've lost to like all the Power
- 26:24Speaker 1: Conference opponents that they've faced, They've been fine against the
- 26:27Speaker 1: non Power conference teams. Actually, the only one they did
- 26:30Speaker 1: beat was Marquette. Marquette is down this year for the
- 26:32Speaker 1: Power Conference teams. But Maryland does start Big Ten play next,
- 26:36Speaker 1: which does sound weird because it's against Oregon, but maybe
- 26:40Speaker 1: a look ahead there. Although Oregon's not very good this year,
- 26:43Speaker 1: it doesn't look like Maryland is coming off a game
- 26:46Speaker 1: where they played Virginia and they only lost by eight,
- 26:48Speaker 1: although that game was pretty much out of reach. Maryland
- 26:51Speaker 1: did some late scoring to kind of make it look
- 26:54Speaker 1: more cosmetic. But if I was gonna play this game,
- 26:57Speaker 1: I would still lean towards old dominion. Here still look
- 27:01Speaker 1: a little bit SANDWICHI to me on the Maryland side,
- 27:03Speaker 1: and you kind of know you're gonna get an effort
- 27:05Speaker 1: out of old Dominion in this one. Maryland's up to
- 27:08Speaker 1: a fifteen point favorite, eighty eight percent of tickets, only
- 27:11Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the cash on them, So yeah,
- 27:14Speaker 1: the money seems to agree with me on that one.
- 27:17Speaker 1: West Coast Conference play continues into the night slate here
- 27:21Speaker 1: with Saint Mary's and Loyal and mary Mount. A lot
- 27:24Speaker 1: of mary going around here for the Christmas break. This
- 27:29Speaker 1: is gonna be probably a pretty good game, man. I
- 27:31Speaker 1: mean Saint Mary's, we know they're absolutely a force in
- 27:34Speaker 1: the West Coast Conference. Loyal and mary Mount is not
- 27:37Speaker 1: a bad team, though not a pushover at all in
- 27:40Speaker 1: this conference. Saint Mary's had a nice win going into
- 27:43Speaker 1: the break. They had won two games in a row,
- 27:45Speaker 1: they beating Northern Iowa. That's a nice win going into
- 27:48Speaker 1: the break. Northern Iowa not a bad team coming out
- 27:51Speaker 1: of the break. You know, maybe they're in a situation
- 27:54Speaker 1: where maybe they potentially get caught here. Loyal and Mary
- 27:57Speaker 1: Mount won two games going into the break too, but
- 27:59Speaker 1: much much easier win over Morgan State, and their break
- 28:03Speaker 1: was only since Tuesday, so they've actually had a little
- 28:05Speaker 1: bit less of a break than most teams have. I
- 28:08Speaker 1: think Saint Mary's has been off for longer than that.
- 28:12Speaker 1: Actually Saint Mary's only been off one more day Monday.
- 28:15Speaker 1: But either way, if I was gonna look towards this game,
- 28:18Speaker 1: I actually probably look towards taking it with Loyal and
- 28:21Speaker 1: mary Mount. Although the money is disagreeing. Uh, Saint Mary's
- 28:25Speaker 1: laying eight and a half points on the road seventy
- 28:27Speaker 1: nine percent of the casual them eighty one percent of
- 28:29Speaker 1: the tickets on Mary Mount. This is also a game
- 28:31Speaker 1: where I mean Saint Mary's is involved, you know you're
- 28:34Speaker 1: gonna be looking at a low total. In most cases,
- 28:37Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty nine is the total here. So
- 28:40Speaker 1: laying points on the road with a team like Saint
- 28:42Speaker 1: Mary's that plays ugly slow basketball not really something I
- 28:46Speaker 1: would want to do either, So I might lean would
- 28:49Speaker 1: be to take the points with Loyal and Marry Mount,
- 28:51Speaker 1: but not gonna do that either. Then we do have
- 28:53Speaker 1: a Gonzaga at pepper Dye, which is also a WCC game.
- 28:58Speaker 1: Gonzaga beat Oregon going into the break. They went into
- 29:01Speaker 1: the break on a hot note. They're only lost this
- 29:04Speaker 1: year is a really bad blowout loss to Michigan. I
- 29:07Speaker 1: mean it was bad just because they lost by forty.
- 29:10Speaker 1: I mean, it's acceptable to lose to Michigan, but maybe
- 29:13Speaker 1: not by forty. But Gonzaga is still a good team.
- 29:16Speaker 1: They're not gonna be thrown off by going to Pepperdine.
- 29:18Speaker 1: I mean, they do it every year. They're gonna win
- 29:21Speaker 1: the game. It's just a matter of whether or not
- 29:22Speaker 1: they're gonna cover this thing. They don't really have that
- 29:25Speaker 1: much incentive to really though Pepperdine. You know, they're gonna
- 29:28Speaker 1: try to show up for it. It's conference opener, they
- 29:31Speaker 1: get to host the big Boy Gonzaga. They'll try to
- 29:34Speaker 1: show up for a Gonzaga is a thirty point road
- 29:36Speaker 1: favorite in this one, though, I mean, I'm not really
- 29:39Speaker 1: interested in laying thirty on the road. Okay, Gonzaga is
- 29:42Speaker 1: the way better team. Maybe they cover. They do like
- 29:45Speaker 1: to play fast and Pepperdine wants to play slow. But
- 29:48Speaker 1: Gonzaga is so much more of the dominant team. They
- 29:51Speaker 1: might be able to control the pace in this one
- 29:54Speaker 1: and speed it up. You know. It's again it's a
- 29:58Speaker 1: matter of do they cover the third or not. I
- 30:01Speaker 1: don't know. I don't really have an opinion either way
- 30:04Speaker 1: and that one, to be honest, I just thought it
- 30:06Speaker 1: was kind of hilarious that that's a conference opener and
- 30:09Speaker 1: it's a thirty point road favorite Gonzaga. I mean, they're
- 30:14Speaker 1: basically a blue blood. They probably should be in a
- 30:17Speaker 1: different conference. San Francisco at Seattle, although with Gonzaga in
- 30:22Speaker 1: the WCC it kind of elevates the conference to some
- 30:26Speaker 1: extent because those conference teams have to play a team
- 30:29Speaker 1: that's as good as Gonzaga. So and Saint Mary's in
- 30:32Speaker 1: there whatever. They got those packed twelve orphans in there now,
- 30:37Speaker 1: and they got loyal and Merrymount and San Francisco are
- 30:40Speaker 1: not Baddie and Santa Clara and none of those teams
- 30:42Speaker 1: are that bad. Right now. Speaking of San Francisco, they're
- 30:45Speaker 1: playing against conference newcomer Seattle. This is another conference opener
- 30:50Speaker 1: at Seattle, which now Seattle's new to the WCC. They
- 30:54Speaker 1: were in the whack until this year, so this is
- 30:57Speaker 1: kind of an unfamiliar venue for San Francisco have to
- 31:00Speaker 1: go to. So that would worry me a little bit
- 31:03Speaker 1: that San Francisco Seattle's not a place where they're that
- 31:06Speaker 1: used to playing, So that would worry me a little bit.
- 31:09Speaker 1: Conference newcomers tend to do fairly well at home because
- 31:12Speaker 1: their environment is unfamiliar to these teams. Now, Seattle, the
- 31:17Speaker 1: holiday break could be disruptive to them potentially, as they
- 31:19Speaker 1: went into the break with six wins in a row.
- 31:23Speaker 1: Although the last win was that win and non cover
- 31:26Speaker 1: against UTSA and that was a win for us on
- 31:29Speaker 1: the show because you remember I said that was a
- 31:31Speaker 1: sandwich spot. Seattle had beaten Washington the game before that,
- 31:34Speaker 1: and a huge win for Seattle against their in city
- 31:38Speaker 1: big brother in the University of Washington, and they had
- 31:41Speaker 1: conference plays starting after the break here San Francisco. But yeah,
- 31:44Speaker 1: part of that handicap was Seattle should show up for
- 31:47Speaker 1: this game. But I think both teams are going to
- 31:49Speaker 1: show up here. So then it kind of comes down
- 31:52Speaker 1: to looking at the and San Francisco just played Morgan
- 31:57Speaker 1: State last week, it doesn't matter. It kind of comes down.
- 32:00Speaker 1: You're looking at the line here and Seattle's flipped from
- 32:02Speaker 1: a one point dog to a two and a half
- 32:03Speaker 1: point favorite, and people are gonna look at see that
- 32:06Speaker 1: Seattle has the better record and think that this is
- 32:08Speaker 1: like pretty easy, almost pick the winner. You play Seattle here.
- 32:12Speaker 1: But I actually don't think that's the right way to go,
- 32:14Speaker 1: even though, yeah, San Francisco is not familiar with going
- 32:17Speaker 1: up to Seattle, but fifty percent of tickets eighty percent
- 32:20Speaker 1: of the cash on San Francisco. San Francisco's faced some
- 32:23Speaker 1: more difficult schedule even though they have the worst record,
- 32:26Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are already telling you what to think here.
- 32:29Speaker 1: San Francisco is still the better team. So that is
- 32:31Speaker 1: the way that I would lean in that game would
- 32:33Speaker 1: be to taking the points with San Francisco. It's a
- 32:35Speaker 1: fairly low total as well, in the one forties. And
- 32:39Speaker 1: then Omaha is playing Oregon here. This is a game
- 32:41Speaker 1: where I mean, Omaha they play slow, but they don't
- 32:45Speaker 1: play any deepfense. It's a very weird combination. They did
- 32:48Speaker 1: win the Summit last year, although I thought they were
- 32:50Speaker 1: pretty overrated and that I didn't expect them to win
- 32:53Speaker 1: the summit. They're coming on an upset win as well
- 32:56Speaker 1: at Lamar. Lamar was actually the favorite in that game,
- 33:00Speaker 1: so Omaha. I mean, potentially, maybe that could be a
- 33:03Speaker 1: letdown spot and maybe that break will disrupt their momentum.
- 33:07Speaker 1: But I don't think they're gonna overlook Oregon though. And
- 33:09Speaker 1: Oregon has been a horrific team against the spread this year.
- 33:13Speaker 1: They just haven't been very good at all. They've been
- 33:15Speaker 1: really bad as a home favorite, just not covering hardly
- 33:19Speaker 1: at all. They went into the break only losing by
- 33:22Speaker 1: nine against Zaga, although that game was pretty much out
- 33:25Speaker 1: of hand late in the game Oregon they closed the
- 33:27Speaker 1: gap a little bit late when the game was already over.
- 33:30Speaker 1: Still a big game having to play a Gonzaga though,
- 33:32Speaker 1: and then Oregon does start Big Ten play next against
- 33:36Speaker 1: Maryland on Friday. So overall, yeah, I would probably lean
- 33:40Speaker 1: towards Omaha in this one, but I'm not gonna do it. Although, yeah, Oregon,
- 33:45Speaker 1: something's got to give with the Oregon man. I mean,
- 33:47Speaker 1: the odds Bakers are gonna have to adjust to Oregon
- 33:49Speaker 1: being so horrific against the spread, and it doesn't look
- 33:52Speaker 1: like it's happening in this game. As they're up from
- 33:54Speaker 1: twenty and a half to twenty one. You're getting a
- 33:57Speaker 1: lot of points with the Omaha. The concern is again
- 33:59Speaker 1: that Omaha's defense reeks, So Oregon might actually finally put
- 34:04Speaker 1: up a decent amount of points in a game for
- 34:06Speaker 1: once against the deepense. It's this bad, So I don't know,
- 34:09Speaker 1: we will say, and that is that is the rundown
- 34:13Speaker 1: for college basketball. Man, we got NHL. Not too many
- 34:16Speaker 1: games today in the NHL or NBA. I have one
- 34:20Speaker 1: play in all of this madness here Montreal at Tampa Bay.
- 34:25Speaker 1: This one is close. Like if I was gonna add
- 34:27Speaker 1: another NHL play today would be in this game. Montreal.
- 34:32Speaker 1: They're coming up a pretty satisfying win over the Bruins,
- 34:35Speaker 1: which is the main reason why I'm gonna just kind
- 34:37Speaker 1: of stay away from this one. But Montreal's definitely rested.
- 34:40Speaker 1: They've been off since Tuesday, although they've had all that
- 34:43Speaker 1: time to kind of bask in that win against their rival,
- 34:46Speaker 1: the Bruins, Like the Bruins in Montreal hate each other, man,
- 34:50Speaker 1: So it was a good win for Montreal six to two,
- 34:53Speaker 1: embarrassing the Bruins. Unfortunately, my Bruins are falling apart, so
- 34:59Speaker 1: they're coming up with that. But yes they are on
- 35:00Speaker 1: the more rested team. Is Montreal gonna overlook Tampa Bay?
- 35:04Speaker 1: I don't really think. Some they might consider this to
- 35:06Speaker 1: be the start of a new road trip, want to
- 35:08Speaker 1: kick it off on the right foot. And Tampa Bay,
- 35:10Speaker 1: as we know, they played yesterday, so they're in the
- 35:13Speaker 1: much worse rest position. And not only did they play yesterday,
- 35:17Speaker 1: they were at Florida and they beat them. Huge win
- 35:20Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay beating their in state rival, beating the
- 35:23Speaker 1: returning champs Florida, massive win for Tampa Bay coming back
- 35:29Speaker 1: home off of that, So they're actually traveling across the
- 35:31Speaker 1: state of Florida, not a huge amount of travel, but
- 35:34Speaker 1: with no days off, I mean, it sets it up
- 35:37Speaker 1: significantly worse for Tampa Bay, I think. And probably Johansson
- 35:40Speaker 1: will be back in net here for Tampa Bay, although
- 35:43Speaker 1: they played well with him, but Vassilevski is better and
- 35:46Speaker 1: Vasilevski is back, but on the back to back, you
- 35:49Speaker 1: got to imagine Tampa Bay will go with Johansson in
- 35:53Speaker 1: net in this one. So if I was gonna play this,
- 35:55Speaker 1: Montreal would be the side I would play Tampa Bay
- 35:58Speaker 1: down for minus one fifty one eighty percent of the
- 36:02Speaker 1: tickets on them and only sixty seven percent of the cash,
- 36:05Speaker 1: so they look like maybe they're a little bit of
- 36:06Speaker 1: a public side market. Reid is kind of agreeing with
- 36:09Speaker 1: me on Montreal here. That would be the way I
- 36:11Speaker 1: would play it way more rest for Montreal and Tampa Bay.
- 36:15Speaker 1: Both team's kind of in a let down spot, but
- 36:18Speaker 1: I think more so for Tampa Bay. So yes, Jeffrey,
- 36:25Speaker 1: thank you sir. Yeah, I didn't even really look at
- 36:28Speaker 1: the NHL to see how I did. But Garrett, what's
- 36:30Speaker 1: up man? You made some money last night? Hell yeah, Garrett.
- 36:37Speaker 1: Garrett is is the prop king here. I don't know
- 36:39Speaker 1: anything about props, so you want to listen to Garrett
- 36:42Speaker 1: on the props. Although I disagreed with the jokicch one,
- 36:46Speaker 1: but I don't know how that one turned out. Although
- 36:48Speaker 1: jokicch is a star, so I mean there is the
- 36:50Speaker 1: potential that he do it anyway, But I just I
- 36:52Speaker 1: don't want to play players like that off of those
- 36:54Speaker 1: monster games. Yeah, the Blackhawks pulled off the upset. I
- 36:58Speaker 1: that was a lean I think that I gave out,
- 37:00Speaker 1: although it was they were a monster underdog in that game.
- 37:03Speaker 1: They were the biggest underdog on the board by far,
- 37:06Speaker 1: so I think you could have gotten a nice puck
- 37:08Speaker 1: line price on them and then sprinkle on the money
- 37:11Speaker 1: line and all those bets would would have hit. Yeah,
- 37:16Speaker 1: I mean yokic, Yeah, walking triple double. I think Aaron
- 37:19Speaker 1: Gordon might still be out for Denver as well. But
- 37:22Speaker 1: the previous game he went like fifty. He was like
- 37:26Speaker 1: fifty sixteen twelve or something in the previous game. So
- 37:29Speaker 1: it was just one that I would not have been.
- 37:32Speaker 1: I would not have had any desire to play his
- 37:35Speaker 1: inflated prop totals over in the next game. You know
- 37:38Speaker 1: what I mean. You know, the books had to inflate
- 37:40Speaker 1: them off of that one he did go over. Yeah,
- 37:44Speaker 1: that's another monster game, A thirty twenty ten game. I mean,
- 37:49Speaker 1: that's yeah. I don't know what else to say, but
- 37:51Speaker 1: I still wouldn't have wanted to do it though. Blues, Yes,
- 37:55Speaker 1: I lean to the Blues as well. Yeah, they won yesterday,
- 37:58Speaker 1: I believe, all right, Islanders and Columbus here the Islanders,
- 38:04Speaker 1: they're also in a spot where they played yesterday and
- 38:06Speaker 1: they got a nice win over the Rangers. They got
- 38:09Speaker 1: the sweep of their local rivals here in New Jersey.
- 38:12Speaker 1: New York beat them both. Now they're starting a road
- 38:15Speaker 1: trip with no days off. They got to travel to Columbus,
- 38:18Speaker 1: So I think you could argue this is a bit
- 38:20Speaker 1: of a letdown spot here with travel plus no rest.
- 38:24Speaker 1: Columbus is a rested team coming into this one, and
- 38:27Speaker 1: they're sitting at five hundred if you exclude the overtime losses.
- 38:32Speaker 1: So I think that might motivate Columbus a little bit
- 38:34Speaker 1: more as well. But Columbus has been off since Monday,
- 38:36Speaker 1: and yeah, they got a nice win against the Kings. Yes,
- 38:40Speaker 1: they're returning over from a road trip. It was only
- 38:41Speaker 1: a two game road trip, though out to the West Coast.
- 38:45Speaker 1: It does warry me a little bit when teams return
- 38:46Speaker 1: on from road trips. They had the holidays in play
- 38:49Speaker 1: here and then they do have to go back out
- 38:51Speaker 1: on the road to face Ottawa. But I don't see
- 38:54Speaker 1: Columbus overlooking the Islanders here and that I think the
- 38:56Speaker 1: Islanders are in the worst spot. You got a lot
- 38:59Speaker 1: of rests on the side of Columbus. I know it's
- 39:01Speaker 1: being factored into the line, but I would play Columbus
- 39:04Speaker 1: in this game on the money line. If I was
- 39:06Speaker 1: gonna play it, Columbus down for minus one forty five
- 39:09Speaker 1: and minus one thirty seven, seventy two percent of the
- 39:12Speaker 1: tickets and eighty two percent of the cash on them.
- 39:14Speaker 1: Right now, I'm not even sure that I buy, Like,
- 39:16Speaker 1: why would Columbus really be the public side here? I don't.
- 39:20Speaker 1: I wouldn't buy that they are. I mean, the public's
- 39:22Speaker 1: gonna look at this and see, oh, the Islanders just
- 39:25Speaker 1: beat these pretty good teams, they have the better record,
- 39:27Speaker 1: and you're getting them as a dog. Like that's the
- 39:29Speaker 1: way the public thinks. So I think Columbus is the
- 39:32Speaker 1: side to look at in that game. You like the Penguins, Yeah,
- 39:37Speaker 1: so do why I have no opinion on the total
- 39:39Speaker 1: in that game? Hell yeah, Garrett, Hopefully my information is
- 39:47Speaker 1: good then. For the NHL, NHL has been one of
- 39:49Speaker 1: my better sports over over the years. So it's one
- 39:53Speaker 1: of those ones the public doesn't really get that involved
- 39:55Speaker 1: in either. You can definitely find some good spots. It's
- 39:58Speaker 1: a money line sport baseball, so you treated a little
- 40:02Speaker 1: bit differently as far as the bets are concerned. I
- 40:04Speaker 1: am gonna have a little bit of a wild way
- 40:06Speaker 1: of playing the Pittsburgh game in a minute. Here Toronto
- 40:11Speaker 1: and Detroit here. Toronto beat Ottawa last night. That's a
- 40:15Speaker 1: big game for both teams. Was a high scoring game,
- 40:18Speaker 1: seven to five. Toronto might be a little bit gassed
- 40:21Speaker 1: coming off of that game, and they got to go
- 40:22Speaker 1: to Detroit here with no days off. Don't love all
- 40:25Speaker 1: that sets up for Toronto. Detroit is more rested here
- 40:29Speaker 1: or no, wait, excuse me, they're not my mistake, my mistake.
- 40:32Speaker 1: I apologize. I forgot Detroit played at Carolina yesterday, my mistake,
- 40:36Speaker 1: so they're traveling as well. They did play yesterday, they
- 40:40Speaker 1: lost five to two. Though to me, I do think
- 40:43Speaker 1: it is a better spot to look to Detroit here.
- 40:45Speaker 1: Both teams did play yesterday, but you're looking at one team.
- 40:48Speaker 1: Detroit got kind of embarrassed yesterday, though yes it was
- 40:51Speaker 1: against a good team. Toronto won and looked really good
- 40:54Speaker 1: in doing so against one of their main rivals. So
- 40:59Speaker 1: I would lead to Detroit in this one. The money
- 41:00Speaker 1: seems like it's not agreeing on that one. Detroit down
- 41:03Speaker 1: from minus one forty to minus one twenty seventy five
- 41:06Speaker 1: percent of tickets ninety nine percent of the cash. Probably
- 41:08Speaker 1: not accurate. On Toronto. My opinion would be Detroit in
- 41:12Speaker 1: that one, though, and I think if you do lean
- 41:14Speaker 1: towards Detroit, you might actually even be fading the public
- 41:17Speaker 1: in that one off of recency BIASLTHO, I'm not totally
- 41:21Speaker 1: convinced that that's the case in that one. That one's
- 41:24Speaker 1: the probably the weakest of my opinions out of all
- 41:27Speaker 1: these games. Here you're in the South. This is the
- 41:32Speaker 1: South as Florida and Carolina though, but yeah, you're right
- 41:36Speaker 1: up here in the Northeast. Hockey is is an animal
- 41:40Speaker 1: man in the Northeast, and in like the Midwest and
- 41:42Speaker 1: like the north, you know, central part of the country
- 41:46Speaker 1: or whatever, hockey is huge. And in Canada obviously, and
- 41:50Speaker 1: I am Park Canadian as well. Unfortunately French Canadian. I
- 41:56Speaker 1: don't know if that's better or worse, but whatever, I'm
- 41:59Speaker 1: mostly Italian and Swedish, but Swedish and French Canadian. That
- 42:03Speaker 1: gives me a lot of hockey blood. Garrett likes the
- 42:08Speaker 1: Nashville sex Offenders. No, Garrett's in North Carolina, so he
- 42:11Speaker 1: probably would be rooting for the Hurricanes, and they're a
- 42:14Speaker 1: way better team than the Predators. So Pittsburgh at Chicago.
- 42:18Speaker 1: This is the best bet. Jeffrey already knows what I'm
- 42:21Speaker 1: doing here. We're going to Pittsburgh here, and I'm going
- 42:27Speaker 1: to recommend splitting the bet here because Pittsburgh is a
- 42:31Speaker 1: pretty big favorite. Because the oddsmakers, they continue to tell
- 42:35Speaker 1: you that Chicago is not a very good team, in fact,
- 42:38Speaker 1: probably one of the worst teams in the league. Still
- 42:40Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is not even that good, and Pittsburgh is still
- 42:43Speaker 1: laying about a minus one seventy money line price. I'm
- 42:47Speaker 1: recommending what you do is you make your own puck
- 42:49Speaker 1: line here. I use the calculator as I've showed you before.
- 42:53Speaker 1: Johnny Ma has one that's pretty simple to use on here.
- 42:56Speaker 1: I do it out of you know, three hundred because
- 42:59Speaker 1: that's what I'm used to, That's what I would bet
- 43:00Speaker 1: on games. But if you want to do it out
- 43:02Speaker 1: of one hundred, you can see what the actual percentages
- 43:04Speaker 1: are here. So you give them what the odds are
- 43:07Speaker 1: on the money line, which is minus one sixty five.
- 43:10Speaker 1: The puck line minus one and a half goals is
- 43:13Speaker 1: plus one fifty eight on them. Those are the best
- 43:15Speaker 1: I found at my books. And then it tells you
- 43:18Speaker 1: what you should do so in this case, you're almost
- 43:20Speaker 1: always going to be putting a little bit more on
- 43:22Speaker 1: the minus money side of it. On the favorite side
- 43:25Speaker 1: of it, sixty three percent, basically sixty four percent, he's saying,
- 43:31Speaker 1: you put on the money line. You put the remainder
- 43:33Speaker 1: of the bet in this case out of one hundred
- 43:36Speaker 1: on the run line part of it. And what that
- 43:39Speaker 1: works out to is that your amount that you're risking
- 43:41Speaker 1: on the run line part of it is the same
- 43:43Speaker 1: as the amount that you're trying to win on the
- 43:46Speaker 1: money line part of it. So you're making your own
- 43:48Speaker 1: minus one puck line in this case. Although this guy
- 43:50Speaker 1: did this for baseball, but it works the same way.
- 43:53Speaker 1: So you create your own minus one puck line in
- 43:56Speaker 1: this case. The odds that you create out of that
- 43:58Speaker 1: are minus one of the three, which is a pretty
- 44:01Speaker 1: good price, I would say. So I like how that
- 44:03Speaker 1: works out. And what this means is that if they
- 44:05Speaker 1: win by exactly one, you'll push your bet. But we
- 44:09Speaker 1: are gonna take Pittsburgh here. If you want to lay more,
- 44:13Speaker 1: you know, put more money on the line to win
- 44:16Speaker 1: what you want to win here. I'm not gonna tell
- 44:18Speaker 1: you not to play the money a lot on this either,
- 44:20Speaker 1: and you could do that. The money line is factoring
- 44:23Speaker 1: into my bet here, but this is just a little
- 44:24Speaker 1: bit more risk aversal. Of course, again, if they win
- 44:26Speaker 1: by one, we will push this bet. Chicago has turned
- 44:30Speaker 1: into a public home underdog here, very rare public home underdog.
- 44:35Speaker 1: And you know, when I see that, I like to
- 44:38Speaker 1: look against. I like to look to go against that team.
- 44:40Speaker 1: And it just so happens that this is also a
- 44:43Speaker 1: really good spot to faite Chicago. Seventy eight percent of tickets,
- 44:46Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash on Chicago public does
- 44:50Speaker 1: not want anything to do with Pittsburgh right now because
- 44:52Speaker 1: they've been on such a major slide recently. They want
- 44:55Speaker 1: nothing to do with it. So I like that that
- 44:57Speaker 1: the public is just completely overvaluing Chicago here to the
- 45:02Speaker 1: point where they're pounding Chicago as a giant home underdog, thinking,
- 45:06Speaker 1: oh my god, we're going to Chicago. Is such a
- 45:07Speaker 1: big dog price, Like, oh, it's such value here, right, Yeah, No,
- 45:12Speaker 1: I don't think so. Pittsburgh, first of all, is the
- 45:14Speaker 1: more rested team here. Pittsburgh. As I told you when
- 45:19Speaker 1: the record was good, they weren't as good as they look,
- 45:20Speaker 1: and yet they lost eight games in a row, and
- 45:23Speaker 1: they've now lost nine out of their last ten. But
- 45:25Speaker 1: they haven't played since Tuesday. Yeah, they went into the
- 45:27Speaker 1: holiday break whatever, but that break came at a good
- 45:30Speaker 1: time for them, I think, losing nine out of ten,
- 45:33Speaker 1: including losing their last game six to three to Toronto.
- 45:37Speaker 1: The previous two losses were both shutouts. I think that
- 45:41Speaker 1: break is gonna be good to help bust Pittsburgh's losing
- 45:44Speaker 1: momentum and help them show up for a game. This
- 45:47Speaker 1: game is obviously more than winnable for Pittsburgh. I mean,
- 45:50Speaker 1: they're the better team in this one. They should win
- 45:52Speaker 1: this game. I don't think they're gonna be looking ahead
- 45:55Speaker 1: to Carolina in a case like this, when you're a
- 45:56Speaker 1: team that's just on a massive skid, you're not gonna
- 45:59Speaker 1: overlook anybody. Meanwhile, Chicago, the spot for them, as Jeffrey
- 46:03Speaker 1: already pointed out, the spot is horrible. They played last
- 46:07Speaker 1: night in Dallas and played them into a shootout, and
- 46:10Speaker 1: now they get Pittsburgh here. Horrible, horrible spot. Yes, that
- 46:14Speaker 1: broke a losing streak for Chicago, so sometimes that will
- 46:16Speaker 1: give you new momentum, but in this case, I don't
- 46:19Speaker 1: think so at all. That was a monster upset, one
- 46:22Speaker 1: of the biggest upsets of the year. Dallas was like
- 46:25Speaker 1: a minus three p thirty something moneyline favorite probably and
- 46:29Speaker 1: Chicago somehow pulled off the upset win, which I believe.
- 46:33Speaker 1: I did say that was my opinion in the game
- 46:35Speaker 1: to play them on the puck line. Didn't really think
- 46:38Speaker 1: they were gonna win the game outright, but they did.
- 46:40Speaker 1: Chicago is actually the way more physical team, although they
- 46:43Speaker 1: got out face off in the game. Whatever you want
- 46:47Speaker 1: to say, huge win for them. They have no time off,
- 46:49Speaker 1: They're having a travel back from Dallas. They get this
- 46:52Speaker 1: Pittsburgh team it's been on a massive skid, and up
- 46:55Speaker 1: next they got the Islanders, then Dallas again, then Washington,
- 46:58Speaker 1: then Vegas. Those are all games against teams that are
- 47:01Speaker 1: doing better than Pittsburgh is right now. So this looks
- 47:04Speaker 1: like a sandwich spot to me. To me, this is
- 47:07Speaker 1: almost a no brainer. Pittsburgh is the side to play
- 47:10Speaker 1: in this one. I know the percentages just shifted around
- 47:12Speaker 1: again here, but whatever, I think we're fading the public
- 47:15Speaker 1: here with the better team with the favorite here. So
- 47:18Speaker 1: that's what we're gonna do. In the way better spot.
- 47:20Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is the play in that one. So that is
- 47:25Speaker 1: that is what I like in that one. Let's see,
- 47:30Speaker 1: I'm looking. I'm looking at the chat again. I apologize.
- 47:33Speaker 1: You're a Canes fan, Yeah, that's what I thought. Carrott's
- 47:36Speaker 1: a fan of the Carol line of teams there. Yeah,
- 47:40Speaker 1: the money line, I mean, yeah, that's what I'm saying.
- 47:43Speaker 1: Like the line. It makes it look so easy to
- 47:45Speaker 1: play Chicago as an underdog there after what we just saw,
- 47:48Speaker 1: So I won't fade that sentiment. Yeah, so I'm saying,
- 47:52Speaker 1: split the bet, so you put sixty four percent of
- 47:55Speaker 1: it on the money line and the remaining whatever thirty
- 47:57Speaker 1: six percent on the uh minus one and half puck
- 48:01Speaker 1: line would be my recommendation on that. But it's kind
- 48:03Speaker 1: of a risk averse way of doing that though, because
- 48:06Speaker 1: there's a decent chance they win by one and you
- 48:08Speaker 1: push the bet. But it it takes the price down
- 48:12Speaker 1: into a range that I like to play because with
- 48:14Speaker 1: hockey playing these minus one sixty money lines, you could
- 48:18Speaker 1: do it, but it's you know, it takes you're putting
- 48:22Speaker 1: more at risk to do it. Let's just say so.
- 48:24Speaker 1: I like to find ways to be a little bit
- 48:26Speaker 1: more risk averse there. Oh yeah, yo Kic. Yeah, I
- 48:31Speaker 1: mean he's probably he's the best player in the NBA. Man.
- 48:36Speaker 1: It's not a parlay, it's too it's two separate straight bets. Yeah,
- 48:40Speaker 1: And the good thing about that is that you can
- 48:43Speaker 1: find the better number. You can actually play each part
- 48:45Speaker 1: of it at a different book. So whichever book gives
- 48:48Speaker 1: you the best money line price, whichever book gives you
- 48:50Speaker 1: the best puck line price, you can play those parts
- 48:53Speaker 1: of the bet at different books, and you know for
- 48:56Speaker 1: your money it works out the same way. So you
- 48:59Speaker 1: just you get a bit, you get a better number
- 49:01Speaker 1: on it, probably by shopping around. So yeah, it is
- 49:03Speaker 1: two straight bets. Parlaying it actually defeats the purpose because
- 49:10Speaker 1: you won't get good enough odds on it. So two
- 49:13Speaker 1: straight bets is what you what you want, because then
- 49:16Speaker 1: it works out exactly such that if they win by
- 49:19Speaker 1: exactly one, you'll lose the puck line part of it,
- 49:21Speaker 1: you'll win the money line part of it, and it
- 49:23Speaker 1: will cancel out and push that essentially effectively. If that
- 49:28Speaker 1: makes sense, JC, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I
- 49:35Speaker 1: don't know if they'd let you play that parlor or not.
- 49:38Speaker 1: I mean, obviously it's correlated so yeah, I mean they
- 49:40Speaker 1: might not. I don't know. I've never tried to parlay
- 49:44Speaker 1: something like that. You know me, I'm I'm opposed to
- 49:46Speaker 1: parlays anyway, so I almost never have done them. As
- 49:52Speaker 1: far as the total in that one, I would I
- 49:55Speaker 1: worry about the under in that one. I mean, the
- 49:57Speaker 1: money kind of seems to indicate on the under, Jeffrey,
- 50:01Speaker 1: I think you play too many unders man seventy nine
- 50:04Speaker 1: percent of ticket, seventy percent of the cash on the
- 50:07Speaker 1: over in this one, I don't like Chicago. Like as
- 50:10Speaker 1: far as playing an under in this one, I don't
- 50:13Speaker 1: want to play an under with Chicago being in the
- 50:15Speaker 1: spot that they're in. They have absolutely no rest and
- 50:18Speaker 1: they went to a shootout last night. That's going to
- 50:20Speaker 1: affect their defense. Man. Pittsburgh of a huge rest yet,
- 50:25Speaker 1: so I would agree, like if both teams were off
- 50:27Speaker 1: of like a huge amount of rest, it makes sense
- 50:30Speaker 1: to go under. When teams are coming off of like
- 50:33Speaker 1: a game where they literally played yesterday and had to
- 50:35Speaker 1: travel played a grueling game yesterday, I do not want
- 50:38Speaker 1: to play that team's game under the total because I
- 50:41Speaker 1: think it's going to affect their defense. Not only that,
- 50:43Speaker 1: but you know that also means Chicago's going to be
- 50:45Speaker 1: switching goald enders year. So who do they use in
- 50:49Speaker 1: net last night? Probably they used their better goalie. Actually
- 50:53Speaker 1: I'm wrong they didn't. They use soda Blooms. So at
- 50:56Speaker 1: least you get that, you get night back in net tonight.
- 50:58Speaker 1: Who is their better goalie? But I don't even care.
- 51:02Speaker 1: It would not shock me at all if that game
- 51:03Speaker 1: went over the total. No, I'm telling you right now.
- 51:09Speaker 1: It affects. It affects the I've done this for almost
- 51:13Speaker 1: two decades, and it's the same in every sport. Basically,
- 51:17Speaker 1: rest tends to lead towards towards unders. Rest basically makes
- 51:23Speaker 1: the offense a little bit colder, and it makes it
- 51:25Speaker 1: easier to play intense deepfense because you're rested. You need
- 51:29Speaker 1: to be rested to play intense deepfense. So I yeah,
- 51:33Speaker 1: that's the way that it is in like every sport. Wait,
- 51:41Speaker 1: void it void? What They just won't let you play
- 51:44Speaker 1: that parlay? Probably calvs. Houston. I don't know what happened
- 51:47Speaker 1: in that game. I did not agree with the under
- 51:50Speaker 1: in that game either. Yeah, obviously it might have hit.
- 51:53Speaker 1: I have no idea Philadelphia at Seattle. I think you're
- 52:01Speaker 1: too of like you're you're too full bore on playing unders, dude,
- 52:05Speaker 1: just because the public tends to lean towards overs. But
- 52:09Speaker 1: the public doesn't even play hockey that much really, so
- 52:12Speaker 1: you're not getting like value by by playing unders in hockey,
- 52:16Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like, it's not inherently value
- 52:19Speaker 1: by doing that. Like and in the NFL it's somewhat
- 52:22Speaker 1: is generally just because in primetime games, especially because the
- 52:25Speaker 1: public will want to play overs in those, but so
- 52:30Speaker 1: the line will be skewed a little bit. But in
- 52:32Speaker 1: hockey they can't even really skew the line because they're
- 52:34Speaker 1: they have to work between five and a half and
- 52:36Speaker 1: six and a half basically, So uh and empty netters
- 52:40Speaker 1: kind of ruined things as well. Philadelphia at Seattle, Philadelphia
- 52:45Speaker 1: just beat Chicago going into the break, so the break
- 52:48Speaker 1: might disrupt their momentum a little bit. But then on
- 52:51Speaker 1: the other hand, it's like starting a new road trip
- 52:53Speaker 1: where I talk about when a team starts a road trip,
- 52:56Speaker 1: they tend to be focused to start the road trip.
- 52:59Speaker 1: On this Seattle side, they also went into the break
- 53:01Speaker 1: on a good note, beating San Jose, Anaheim, and LA
- 53:06Speaker 1: and they were returning home from a road trip here,
- 53:09Speaker 1: as they actually went to Calgary then San Jose, Anaheim
- 53:11Speaker 1: in LA. So they're returning home from all that, and
- 53:14Speaker 1: they had the holidays in play here. So you actually
- 53:17Speaker 1: have a return home spot here for Seattle. And know
- 53:19Speaker 1: I talk about that the return home spot could be
- 53:22Speaker 1: a distracted you know, you can see a distracted team
- 53:26Speaker 1: in the return home spot. I know Philadelpha has been
- 53:28Speaker 1: playing pretty well, but I think it is still a
- 53:31Speaker 1: factor here. It is possible Seattle is still kind of
- 53:34Speaker 1: distracted by the holidays ending and whatever. So if I
- 53:37Speaker 1: was gonna play this game, I disagree with the market
- 53:40Speaker 1: in this one. I would lean towards Philly at minus
- 53:43Speaker 1: one thirty on the money line, sixty seven percent of
- 53:46Speaker 1: tickets on them, ninety percent of the cash on Seattle.
- 53:48Speaker 1: It does look like a pros versus Joe's scenario that
- 53:51Speaker 1: is indicating pretty strongly on Seattle right now. But I
- 53:54Speaker 1: actually disagree with it based on the situation. But no,
- 53:59Speaker 1: I'm gonna skip it. No, I mean I don't even
- 54:06Speaker 1: think that makes sense. Like, I mean, you're gonna like
- 54:11Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are trying to split the action. Yeah, but
- 54:14Speaker 1: the way that they put those totals up there, it's
- 54:16Speaker 1: gonna be close to a fifty to fifty split overs
- 54:19Speaker 1: and unders long term. So yeah, I mean, I don't
- 54:26Speaker 1: see that at all. I find spots to play overs
- 54:29Speaker 1: pretty much in hockey, and I was doing it last
- 54:31Speaker 1: year more than I have in the past, and I
- 54:33Speaker 1: think I did win on them more than I lost.
- 54:37Speaker 1: So I don't know, but I am telling you that
- 54:40Speaker 1: you need rest to play intense defense, and rest also
- 54:44Speaker 1: hurts offensive continuity. So that's how I look at games NBA.
- 54:48Speaker 1: To finish this thing off here and then I will
- 54:50Speaker 1: do the final NFL market read here. We got six
- 54:55Speaker 1: games here, Golden State at Toronto. Golden State last played
- 54:59Speaker 1: on Christmas, and they look pretty good beating Dallas, so
- 55:02Speaker 1: could be maybe a let down spot, although I do
- 55:04Speaker 1: also talk about when a team starts a road trip,
- 55:07Speaker 1: they contend to be focused to start the road trip.
- 55:10Speaker 1: I want to get it off on the right foot.
- 55:11Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna overlook Toronto, and they have
- 55:13Speaker 1: Brooklyn and Charlotte up in the next two games, but
- 55:16Speaker 1: they are coming off the game against Dallas. Dallas not great,
- 55:19Speaker 1: but they beat them look decent in doing so. On Christmas.
- 55:24Speaker 1: You could argue it's a little bit of a letdown
- 55:25Speaker 1: spot here. Meanwhile, I do expect Toronto was going to
- 55:29Speaker 1: show up with some anger here. They played on Friday
- 55:32Speaker 1: and they got blown out by Washington. That's an embarrassing loss, man,
- 55:36Speaker 1: So I think they will try to bounce back from that. Now,
- 55:39Speaker 1: you could argue the returning over from a road trip,
- 55:41Speaker 1: but I'm not sure if they are because the Christmas
- 55:45Speaker 1: happened in between the Miami and the Washington game, so
- 55:48Speaker 1: I don't know if they went home and then they
- 55:50Speaker 1: went back out to Washington and that kind of affected
- 55:53Speaker 1: how distracted they were. I don't know. So I'm not
- 55:55Speaker 1: really gonna treat this as a as a real road
- 55:58Speaker 1: trip return spot, even though you, yeah, they had three
- 56:00Speaker 1: straight road games starting on the twenty first. Normally I
- 56:04Speaker 1: would say, yeah, they're going to be distracted in the
- 56:06Speaker 1: return home spot. In this case, I don't really think
- 56:09Speaker 1: that's the case. So my opinion in this will be
- 56:12Speaker 1: to take the points with Toronto. The money seems to agree.
- 56:15Speaker 1: The Warriors are up from three to four and a half.
- 56:18Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets on the Warriors, fifty five percent
- 56:21Speaker 1: of the cash on the Raptors. So the money is
- 56:24Speaker 1: saying the Raptors here. I'm staying away. But that's uh
- 56:29Speaker 1: the way that I would lean in that one Washington
- 56:32Speaker 1: beat Memphis. Was that one of my plays? I don't remember. Yeah,
- 56:36Speaker 1: I don't know. Oh Washington is playing Memphis today. Yeah,
- 56:39Speaker 1: so there's like a kind of zigzag aspect of that game.
- 56:43Speaker 1: I guess Philadelphia at Oklahoma City, I will tell you
- 56:46Speaker 1: right now, I probably would not want to be Philadelphia
- 56:50Speaker 1: right now having to face Oklahoma City after another loss
- 56:54Speaker 1: to the Spurs. I will say that Philadelphia is playing
- 56:57Speaker 1: a second straight road game, they're on a two game
- 56:59Speaker 1: lose streak. They're gonna try to show up. I will
- 57:03Speaker 1: say that they're not gonna overlook Oka se obviously. It's
- 57:06Speaker 1: just that they're catching okay Cee in a spot where
- 57:08Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be really angry. That was their
- 57:12Speaker 1: first home loss of the season, and they just can't
- 57:14Speaker 1: beat San Antonio. I don't know what the fuck goes
- 57:17Speaker 1: on with that matchup, man, But Oklahoma City has five
- 57:20Speaker 1: losses on the season. Three of them are to San Antonio,
- 57:24Speaker 1: and the other two losses are to teams that they
- 57:26Speaker 1: beat in other games. Minnesota and Portland. Oklahoma City has
- 57:32Speaker 1: beaten both of those teams this season as well. Something
- 57:35Speaker 1: about San Antonio whatever it is, man. But now Oklahoma City,
- 57:39Speaker 1: they're coming up that game. They kind of got embarrassed,
- 57:41Speaker 1: to be honest, as double digit favorites at home on Christmas.
- 57:45Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up and they're gonna kill
- 57:47Speaker 1: Philadelphia in this game. Kiladelphia. Oklahoma City still only has
- 57:52Speaker 1: that one home loss there. They've been dominant at home.
- 57:55Speaker 1: Otherwise they do win by margin a lot at home.
- 57:58Speaker 1: I would lay the points in this game if I
- 58:00Speaker 1: was gonna play it. Thunder up from fifteen to fifteen
- 58:03Speaker 1: and a half. Here sixty seven percent of the cash
- 58:06Speaker 1: on the Thunder, fifty one percent of the tickets on
- 58:08Speaker 1: the Sixers. So the Sixers are actually a slightly public side.
- 58:12Speaker 1: It looks like the public just doesn't want to lay
- 58:15Speaker 1: points with the Thunder right now, man, because the Thunder
- 58:18Speaker 1: have kind of been just not doing it for the
- 58:22Speaker 1: public recently. But I think this is a spot where
- 58:24Speaker 1: the Thunder bounce back. I mean, they're not playing San Antonio,
- 58:27Speaker 1: so I think that's enough that they're gonna come out
- 58:30Speaker 1: with some ferocity and I think they're gonna win by
- 58:32Speaker 1: margin there, that would be my opinion. The UNC break
- 58:38Speaker 1: is killing you. Yeah, at least you're not a Duke
- 58:41Speaker 1: fan man like Cole my former co host, and Dicky Walnuts.
- 58:46Speaker 1: I think Cole inherited the Duke fandom. I don't know
- 58:48Speaker 1: about Dicky because they're not from like the Duke area.
- 58:54Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what goes on there,
- 58:57Speaker 1: but they're both Duke fans. For whatever reason, I have
- 59:00Speaker 1: always hated Duke more than I've hated North Carolina. I
- 59:03Speaker 1: had a soft spot for North Carolina slightly, just because
- 59:06Speaker 1: I liked Michael Jordan in the nineties, so that was
- 59:10Speaker 1: the thing. I'm a bust college man and you know,
- 59:13Speaker 1: you know how that goes. But you know, yeah, you
- 59:16Speaker 1: hate Duke, so do I. I don't know. Just something
- 59:19Speaker 1: about the air of Duke just really really pisses me
- 59:23Speaker 1: off more than like any other team. I don't, I
- 59:25Speaker 1: don't know, like just they're basically they're like even though
- 59:31Speaker 1: I am a guy from the Northeast where Yankees, but
- 59:33Speaker 1: like even though I hate the Yankees because I'm a
- 59:35Speaker 1: Red Sox fan. This is a Red Sox hat, by
- 59:37Speaker 1: the way, But like Duke is like the Northeast moved
- 59:40Speaker 1: down to the South and took it over. Duke is
- 59:42Speaker 1: like such a Yankee school, dude, So it's pretty lame.
- 59:47Speaker 1: It's it's a pretentious, yeah, Northeast school that just happens
- 59:51Speaker 1: to exist in North Carolina. So yeah, exactly. Although if
- 59:56Speaker 1: you wanted me to choose any of those North Carolina
- 59:59Speaker 1: t Engel schools, I would prefer NC State over both
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: of them because they're the team that gets like no recognition.
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: They're the little guy out of the three of them.
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: So and I liked, oh god, what was Valvano? Was
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: at his name? He was a little bit before my time,
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: but I watched the documentary about NC State was awesome
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: by the way, on Netflix, the NC State Valvano documentary.
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: I liked that guy's vibe. Man Valvano. That was his name, right, Valvano. Hilarious, dude, dude.
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: I like him way more than all the UNC and
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: Duke coaches, you know. I'm I don't know. That guy
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: seemed like real unlike the other guys. So I like
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: that guy a lot. I know. He unfortunately died at
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: a somewhat young age of cancer and he was still
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: doing it right up to the end too. He was
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: like accepting, like sp awards and stuff. Yeah, so NC
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: State is kind of plus. NC State just recently had
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: DJ Burns is his name, right, the fat guy DJ.
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: I like watching that guy play basketball. This is hilarious.
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: You hate Duke because you're an old school Temple fan? Yeah,
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: Temple beat Duke in person? Want hell Yeah? My best
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: was watching BC upset Syracuse in person in BC, although
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: I think both teams were good at the time, but
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: it was delicious because my European history teacher in high
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: school was a Syracuse alum, and he took our entire
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: class to the game and wanted to gloat when Syracuse
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: beat BC and BC beat beat Syracuse, so we all
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: got to gloat in his face. Yeah hell yeah. Man,
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: shout out to to mister Morris. Awesome teacher, by the way,
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: Like we loved that guy. He was like really really
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: harsh but also really funny at the same time. Yeah,
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: Burns was a beast. Yeah, he's he's he needs to
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: be in the NBA. Man, he's in like the what
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: is he in? Like the G League? Is that what
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: it is? Right now? For the dude, he's in your
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: he's in your area. He's still in Carolina, he's on
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: the he's on the Hornets like G League team right now.
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: He should come play for Charlotte. Yeah, Eric Montrosse, Yeah,
- 1:02:21Speaker 1: I remember that guy. Memphis at Washington. As Jeffery is
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: pointing out, Memphis did get upset by Washington not long
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: ago on December twentieth, So yeah, I agree. It could
- 1:02:33Speaker 1: be a little bit of an adjustment spot here from
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: Memphis off of that, because that was an ugly loss.
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: I think we did actually have a winner on that
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: one on the show. I mean, look at what that
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: spot was. Memphis had beaten Minnesota on the road in
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: an upset, and they had Oklahoma City after that, so
- 1:02:47Speaker 1: that was a big time sandwich spot. I think we
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: did have the win. I think we gave out Washington
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: on the show here. I'm pretty sure I did. So
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: that was a bad spot. So yeah, so it's a
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: misleading result in that way that you can kind of
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: explain why Memphis didn't play well in that game. Now,
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: Memphis is coming off wins over Utah and a yannisless Milwaukee,
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: they probably won't be overconfident about that, but they do
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: play Philadelphia and then the Lakers twice, then San Antonio, Phoenix,
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: Oklahoma City all after this. So these are all bigger games.
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: So I do worry about maybe a look ahead component
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: here for Washington. Yeah, they're playing a little bit better
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: right now. That's all you can really say. They did
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: just get another win. They crushed Toronto, but that's a
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: big win. It could be a letdown spot for Washington
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: here off of that nice big upset win there. So
- 1:03:37Speaker 1: I think you're right. I probably slightly lean towards Memphis
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: in this game, but I don't love it by any means.
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: In this game, you gotta look at the injury report
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: as well for Memphis, mostly so Zach Edies his timeline
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: has been pushed back further. He's not coming back until
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: early January. It looks like now at the earliest. And
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: then I don't know what's going on with Morant either.
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: Moran looks like he is back, so he's probably playing.
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: I don't love what Moran does to the team's chemistry,
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: to be honest. The public looks like they're on the
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: Grizzlies and the market Reid is saying to fade the Grizzlies. Here,
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent of
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: the cash on them, and they dropped from seven and
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: a half to seven to seven, a somewhat key number
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: in basketball. I mean, I don't necessarily disagree with the
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: Grizzlies side here, but yeah, I mean that's a market Reid.
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: I don't love the look of in that one, so
- 1:04:29Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it either. Yeah, I agree with
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: that Memphis. I mean, I don't know. They probably win
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: the game, but yeah, I don't know. I don't want
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: to lay that on the road either with that type
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: of market. Read nineteen shots blocked for the Blues. That's
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: that means they were playing good defense man for the
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: most part. Boston. My Celtics are at Portland. This should
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: be the Drew Holiday fest here, but I think he's
- 1:04:56Speaker 1: still hurt for Portland, so he's not gonna play against
- 1:04:59Speaker 1: his former team. The Celtics have been surprising everybody. Man
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: without Jason Tatum, they unloaded up Porzingis and Holiday, as
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: I mentioned, but Perzingis is always injured man or sick.
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: And Holidays, I mean Holidays old and injured now as well.
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: Even though Holiday was great for the Celtics, man, I
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: mean the Celtics would not have won the championship without Holiday.
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: I know Perzingis wasn't a huge part of the championship
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: and they won because he was getting hurt as usual.
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: But the Celtics have been shockingly good. Man, you know,
- 1:05:32Speaker 1: they're They're just well coached. They're playing with a lot
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: of intensity. Jalen Brown is actually starting to take over
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: as like that guy. So I think in that way,
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: it's actually been good that Jason Tatum has been out
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: because it's allowed Brown to actually evolve. Like the knock
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: on Brown was that he couldn't really do that much
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: when he had to be the guy. But now he
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: is having to be the guy and he's doing it.
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: But the Celtics role players is stepping up. Derek White's
- 1:05:56Speaker 1: still doing his thing. They're playing really disciplined basket. They
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: just crushed it Indiana on their last game. Now they're
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: going out to Portland. They don't really have anything after this.
- 1:06:05Speaker 1: This is actually a road trip against some easy opponents.
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: So the Celtics better come out above five hundred on
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: this road trip where they get to play Portland, Utah,
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: Sacramento and the Clippers. We'll see what happens. But it's
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: not a bad spot for the Celtics at the very least.
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: Also their draft pick in Hugo Gonzalez. That guy, he
- 1:06:26Speaker 1: doesn't score a lot, but he is a pest on
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: the court. Man. That guy is going after every rebound.
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: He's playing really intense defense. I think he was a
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: good draft pick for the Celtics. He got overlooked because
- 1:06:39Speaker 1: he played in Spain and people just don't pay attention
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: to that. Portland has lost three games in a row.
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: They lost as one of my plays on Friday, thought
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: it was a bad spot for the Clippers and Portland
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: got wrecked in the game. So Portland is staying at
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: home coming off of that. So maybe you could argue
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: it's a better spot for Portland to bounce back off
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: the loss like that, they'll show up for a game
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: against the Celtics. This Portland roster is thin though. Man,
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: you gotta see if Grant is playing or not as well,
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: So Drew Halladay is not playing, he's still out. Grant
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: is gonna miss the game as well. Former Celtic Robert
- 1:07:14Speaker 1: Williams the Third is also not playing in this game.
- 1:07:17Speaker 1: So you got a bit of a thin roster here
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: for Portland man. The money is saying Celtics as they're
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: up to six and a half here as a road favorite,
- 1:07:26Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the tickets, seventy nine percent of
- 1:07:28Speaker 1: the cash on the Celtics. Margaret Reed is saying to
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: lay the points. I mean, I don't want to do it.
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: I mean I would slightly disagree with it. Although you're
- 1:07:37Speaker 1: looking at a very thin Blazer roster, the Celtics are
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: definitely the deeper roster here. So I mean the Celtics, dude,
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: their backups are coming in, their backups are playing well,
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: Like their backups basically won them that game against Indiana
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: two games ago, not the last one. But I don't know,
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: it's just crazy. Well who got embarrassed by the Predators
- 1:08:00Speaker 1: the Blues? Uh yeah, so I think there was yeah,
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: like kind of a zigzag or revenge mode of whatever
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: you want to call it. Detroit at the Clippers here,
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: this is a game where you look at this line
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: and it's like, what is going on here with this line?
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: I mean, the Pistons have the best record in the
- 1:08:18Speaker 1: East and the Clippers have a horrendous record at nine
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: to twenty one, and yet this line is three three
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: and a half on the Pistons. They're down from four
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: to three and a half, seventy eight percent of tickets,
- 1:08:30Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the cousual on the Pistons. I
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: don't think I buy that the Pistons are any sort
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: of professional side here or anything like that, because, I mean,
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: look at this line. It looks so easy to play
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: the Pistons. This line it stinks to be honest, Like,
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: why are the Pistons only laying three and a half
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: on the road against the Clippers based on what these
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: teams records are. Now, Yeah, the Pistons are not exactly
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: as good as their record looks. They're good, but I
- 1:08:56Speaker 1: don't think they're the best team in the East. The
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: Clippers are talent wise, the Clippers are not as bad
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: as their record looks, and the awsmakers are kind of
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: telling you that the line it just looks way too
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: easy to play Detroit. I mean, the line is very
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: suspect and Detroit doesn't really have any injuries here either,
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: so why is the line like this? Detroit also just
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: lost at Utah. I mean that's it's a situation where
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: you think that Detroit would be pissed and bounced back
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: from that loss, pretty bad loss on the road to Utah.
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: But they're in LA now, and the reason they're in
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: La is because they have a big NBC game on
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: Tuesday against the Lakers. So it is possible they're gonna
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: be looking ahead to the Lakers here. So I would
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: have to lead to the Clippers in this one. I think,
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: just kind of out of principle. The Clippers are on
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: a three game win streak. They did not suffer the
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: letdown that I thought they were going to after they
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: beat the Lakers and Houston, two monster wins for the Clippers.
- 1:09:53Speaker 1: They're without Zobac right now as well. I believe they
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: beat Portland anyway. Now they get Detroit here. I believe
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: Zubac is still not playing, if I'm not mistaken yet,
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: he's out for a while. He seems to be a
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: trade piece that the Celtics fans are clamoring about it.
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: They want to get Zubach. I wouldn't mind that, but
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: he's got to stay healthy. Man. I like him, but
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: he's gonna be out for this game for the Clippers.
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: But just because the line looks so suspect in this game, man,
- 1:10:21Speaker 1: I think it would be Clippers plus the points are
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: passed in this one. I mean, the books are not
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: handing you free money. And that line just looks unbelievably short.
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: On the Pistons, props on Caleb Love wait to see you.
- 1:10:37Speaker 1: On the Blazers, it seems like you should be able
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: to find props on him. You can find pretty much
- 1:10:42Speaker 1: props on any NBA player, I thought for the most part,
- 1:10:46Speaker 1: although I don't know, maybe not in some random regular
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: season game. And then the last game is Sacramento at
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: the Lakers. Sacramento just beat Dallas last night. I called
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: that one correctly as well. I said Sacramento plus points
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: was the way to lean in that game. Dallas was
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: coming off playing Golden State pretty tough on Christmas. Sacramento
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: got the win. Now they're having to go to La
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: no time off. They're staying in California, but they gotta
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: fly down from northern California to southern California with no
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: days off. They're not gonna overlook the Lakers though. For
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: the Lakers. The Lakers just got embarrassed by Houston though,
- 1:11:25Speaker 1: which was on Christmas, So the Lakers got embarrassed very publicly.
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: So it does look like kind of a bounce back
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: spot for the Lakers here. They've lost three games in
- 1:11:34Speaker 1: a row. They're just not playing very well right now.
- 1:11:36Speaker 1: They've been dealing with injuries though, so I don't know
- 1:11:39Speaker 1: what's going on with Austin Reeves. Sacramento, they're dealing with
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: injuries as well. I mean, they're still without Levine. He's
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: out until the thirtieth. Sabonus is out until mid January
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: at the earliest. Now the Lakers, Yeah, Reeves is still out,
- 1:11:55Speaker 1: So Reeves is gonna miss extended time here for the Lakers.
- 1:11:58Speaker 1: So that is definitely a blow to the Lakers because
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: he's one of their starters. But again, the Kings are
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: down their two best players pretty much in Sibonus and Lavigne.
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: So this Kings team is really suffering here. I mean,
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: for me, it would probably be Lakers or Pass here.
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: The Lakers are down from thirteen after thirteen, I think
- 1:12:18Speaker 1: they're gonna bounce back from that horrible, horrible loss. The
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: Kings obviously also don't have rest, although it's that's factored
- 1:12:24Speaker 1: into the number here. Sixty four percent of tickets eighty
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on the Lakers. Kings are
- 1:12:29Speaker 1: also coming up that upset win. I mean, yeah, the
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: Kings will try to show up for this game, but
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: it looks like a get right spot to me for
- 1:12:35Speaker 1: the Lakers where they just come in and, you know,
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: and bully a bad team. So the Lakers are definitely
- 1:12:41Speaker 1: good at doing that, at least for the most part.
- 1:12:44Speaker 1: So I think you either lay the lay the points
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: of the Lakers, lay Lakers, or leave it alone. All right,
- 1:12:53Speaker 1: and that's gonna do it, man, And then we'll actually, whoops,
- 1:12:56Speaker 1: we'll go to the uh, we'll look at the NFL
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: real quick. For the market read here looking real quick,
- 1:13:02Speaker 1: it's still saying the market read is still saying take
- 1:13:05Speaker 1: the points of the Cardinals against the Bengals. Bengals are
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: very public. The money is still indicating on the Seahawks
- 1:13:12Speaker 1: side of that Seahawks Panthers game, and I don't really
- 1:13:15Speaker 1: agree with it, so I got to figure out what
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: to pick in that game. The money is slightly in
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: agreement with me on the Giants. I do still agree
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: with that side. The public is all over the Steelers,
- 1:13:26Speaker 1: and the money is actually almost evenly split. And you
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: can get a better number on the Browns now than
- 1:13:31Speaker 1: I gave out on the show. Last night. So yeah,
- 1:13:33Speaker 1: we're taking the points of the Browns here. You can
- 1:13:35Speaker 1: get four to four and a half on that one,
- 1:13:38Speaker 1: so we're gonna do that. It looks like the total
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: is creeping back up a little bit, because again I
- 1:13:42Speaker 1: thought the total was an overreaction in that game. Remember,
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: because it's gonna be bad weather, it's gonna be rain,
- 1:13:48Speaker 1: but the things that really actually knock the offense down
- 1:13:51Speaker 1: are cold and wind, and in this case, yeah, it's
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: gonna be cold ish, but it's not cold enough to
- 1:13:57Speaker 1: snow and slick surfaces in like rain and get factored
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: into the market too much. And I think it does
- 1:14:03Speaker 1: affect the deepfense negatively because they don't know which way
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: to move, you know, they don't know how to they
- 1:14:08Speaker 1: can't anticipate quickly enough, and they could slip, you know
- 1:14:11Speaker 1: what I mean. So I think it did overreact in
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: the market to the under there. The market is still
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: indicating on the Titan side. That one kind of confused
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: me a little bit, but I don't have a strong
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: disagreement with it. Buccaneers are still very public. I know
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: there's a one percent cash difference there on the bucks,
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: but I would probably still lean towards the Dolphins. In
- 1:14:33Speaker 1: that one, I still lean to the Colts plus the
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: points against the Jags. Jags are just really public as well.
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: I still lean towards the Jets plus the points. You're
- 1:14:42Speaker 1: probably gonna be able to get two touchdowns on that
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: one if you want that one. I mean, I'm not
- 1:14:47Speaker 1: that much of a fan of it. I think my
- 1:14:50Speaker 1: disagreement with Marco on this one. I might be on
- 1:14:53Speaker 1: the right side of it because I lean Bills, he
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: leans Eagles. Not a play for me or anything like that,
- 1:14:58Speaker 1: but the money looks like it is coming in the
- 1:15:00Speaker 1: Bills and driving that number up towards the three. So
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: if you do like the Bills, you kind of got
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: to get that. Before he hits three, you could have
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: had it at one one and a half. The money
- 1:15:09Speaker 1: is still indicating on the Niners here, which is one
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: of my plays. And then Monday night, we'll see what
- 1:15:14Speaker 1: happens with the Monday Night one. I mean, I just
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: think the Rams are still too public on Monday night
- 1:15:19Speaker 1: that is gonna do it. And then once again the
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: plays today we got five of them NFL. I'm gonna
- 1:15:25Speaker 1: update this to Cleveland plus four. You might be able
- 1:15:27Speaker 1: to get four and a half on this. We're taking
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: the points with Cleveland. You can go see my analysis
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: from last night's show at the end the best Bets segment,
- 1:15:35Speaker 1: or wait for my Instagram video which I'll get out shortly.
- 1:15:38Speaker 1: And then I am on the forty nine ers minus
- 1:15:41Speaker 1: three at a little bit of increased juice. I think
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: I found a minus one thirteen at the newcomer bally
- 1:15:47Speaker 1: Bets in Massachusetts. They they lag behind man, but I
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: would still probably lay the three and a half. I
- 1:15:53Speaker 1: like the Niners in the night game. That's what we're
- 1:15:55Speaker 1: going with with the two plays college basketball. We're taking
- 1:15:58Speaker 1: the points with Winthromp, We're laying the points with George Mason,
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: and then we have that split hockey bet on the
- 1:16:04Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Penguins, partially on the puck line, partially on the
- 1:16:08Speaker 1: money line, and that is going to do it. Those
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: are my players today. You're on the Texans yesterday. I
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: disagreed with that, the market disagreed with it, and also
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: the Texans. It was a bullshit win for the Texans.
- 1:16:24Speaker 1: That illegal contact call that basically handed the Texans the
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: win was one of the worst calls of the year.
- 1:16:30Speaker 1: Like the game was just completely rigged. It was and
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: I'm not just saying that because the Colts got eliminated
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: on that. It was just absolute bullshit. But Jeffrey, I
- 1:16:38Speaker 1: thought you were all about revenge, man, and that was
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: a revenge spot that mattered to the Chargers, even though
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: I think the Texans are the better team. But that
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: was just that should have been offensive PI on the Texans.
- 1:16:49Speaker 1: Illegal contact on the Chargers worst one of the worst
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: calls I've ever seen. To be honest, it pissed me
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: off so much. The Chargers should have won that game.
- 1:17:00Speaker 1: Absolute bullshit. The penalties are bullshit. The Bears are absolute
- 1:17:06Speaker 1: ass dude, Like, come on, they had no business winning
- 1:17:09Speaker 1: that game against green Bay. It took two quarterback injuries
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: on green Bay and green Bay not being able to
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: even get a first down at the end of the
- 1:17:16Speaker 1: game and recovering an on sidekick and green Bay fumbling
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: in overtime. That's how Chicago won that game. Give me
- 1:17:24Speaker 1: a break, Chicago. There's still a joke. They're not good.
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: There's still below average on offense, and there's still a
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: bottom like seven defense. They're not good. They're the most
- 1:17:33Speaker 1: fraudulent team in NFL history. Still and they're gonna lose
- 1:17:38Speaker 1: to the forty nine ers. So yeah, that's all I
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: have to say about that. Fuck the Bears. The Bears
- 1:17:44Speaker 1: are also in for a rude awakening in the playoffs
- 1:17:47Speaker 1: as well, with being the most overrated team of all time,
- 1:17:51Speaker 1: plus being massively inexperienced. Good luck with that, except their
- 1:17:55Speaker 1: coach has some experience, but not as a head coach,
- 1:17:58Speaker 1: and their quarterback is this is extremely soft, let's just
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: put it that way, and has zero experience, and I
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: think he's still not good at all. So no, again,
- 1:18:09Speaker 1: absolutely not. No, that's how you go broke in this business,
- 1:18:14Speaker 1: relying on getting lucky. No, the skill aspect is how
- 1:18:18Speaker 1: you win at this thing. You can't rely on luck.
- 1:18:20Speaker 1: You cannot do it because the luck will go your
- 1:18:25Speaker 1: way sometimes and it won't go your way other you
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: other times. No, being lucky is just bullshit. You can't
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: luck your way to a super Bowl win. It's not
- 1:18:32Speaker 1: gonna happen. So all it's gonna do is make the
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: Bears look way better than they actually are. It's absolute bullshit. Yeah,
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: they're trash. They're the worst team that I've ever seen
- 1:18:43Speaker 1: with a record that's as good as this they've had
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: the at this point. I think they might have the
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: weakest schedule in the NFL at this point because the
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: Patriots have faced a couple of good teams over the
- 1:18:53Speaker 1: last couple of weeks because it was the Patriots and
- 1:18:57Speaker 1: Denver was kind of in the mix as well. But yeah,
- 1:19:00Speaker 1: the Bears, they're not above average at anything offense or defense.
- 1:19:04Speaker 1: Kill Williams' stats still reek, They're not good at all.
- 1:19:07Speaker 1: They had six points for the majority of that game
- 1:19:10Speaker 1: against Green Bay. They're awful, dude. They're gonna lose, and
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: they're gonna lose in the first game. Forty nine ers
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: better smoke them, I think the Bears. I mean, if
- 1:19:21Speaker 1: you can go watch my analysis, but the Bears just
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: clinched the division, so I think that makes the letdown
- 1:19:26Speaker 1: spot for them after beating green Bay even worse coming
- 1:19:29Speaker 1: into this one and they're having to play a night
- 1:19:31Speaker 1: game on the Pacific Coast. I know the forty nine
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: ers have a lack of rest here, and I do
- 1:19:38Speaker 1: worry that the forty nine ers they actually control their
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: own destiny as far as getting the one seed, But
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: I just don't think that's that much of a motivating
- 1:19:45Speaker 1: factor to be honest, like getting the one seed. I
- 1:19:47Speaker 1: think you just go out and you play. That's the motivation.
- 1:19:51Speaker 1: The forty nine ers are more motivated to win the division,
- 1:19:56Speaker 1: so and I believe they actually control their own Well,
- 1:19:59Speaker 1: I don't think they controlled destiny as far as that's concerned,
- 1:20:02Speaker 1: because I think they need Seattle to lose once. But
- 1:20:05Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure about that, and maybe they I
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: don't know. I'd have to look again the Niners. If
- 1:20:09Speaker 1: they win both actually maybe they will win the division. Actually, yeah,
- 1:20:12Speaker 1: they will because I just said that if they win
- 1:20:14Speaker 1: both games, they're the one seed. So yeah, they do
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: actually control their own destiny as far as winning the division.
- 1:20:19Speaker 1: But we'll see. And I want them to because that
- 1:20:21Speaker 1: was my preseason prediction. I said the forty nine ers
- 1:20:25Speaker 1: would be the winner of this division. So I didn't
- 1:20:27Speaker 1: get everything right, but I got some things right. I
- 1:20:30Speaker 1: had Jacksonville winning their division, by the way, and that's
- 1:20:32Speaker 1: gonna be a close one down the stretch. So you know,
- 1:20:37Speaker 1: a couple of situations where I went against the public.
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: By the way, all three of my season win totals
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: that I said were the best ways to play them,
- 1:20:45Speaker 1: they all won. At this point, I think we have
- 1:20:47Speaker 1: the Niners I think are over the ten and a
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: half now and Washington clinch the under nine and a
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: half like seven weeks ago, and the Chiefs went under
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: their win total as well, So I got all three
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: of them, right, Baby, there you go. Let's get it.
- 1:21:03Speaker 1: Let's get some wins today. Learn it tone on Twitter.
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: I got subscriptions over there now, learn it tone on Instagram,
- 1:21:09Speaker 1: like subscribe, give me good comments here on this uh
- 1:21:12Speaker 1: this channel here. Listen on audio give me a good
- 1:21:16Speaker 1: review on audio app on Spotify. Covered in Yuke is
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: my Ukuleley cover project that I have on YouTube er.
- 1:21:22Speaker 1: I have some originals up there too. I've Yuke translated
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: some of my old original music that I did with
- 1:21:28Speaker 1: like my MIDI project and whatever, so I might post
- 1:21:32Speaker 1: those two. But I wrote an entirely new YUK album
- 1:21:36Speaker 1: that's up there as well. So for a for a
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: for a Twitter chick, and then we got Patreon dot com,
- 1:21:46Speaker 1: slash learned it toad and you can get bonus Yuke
- 1:21:48Speaker 1: stuff there. And the Loser Cast you can go check
- 1:21:51Speaker 1: that out. That is the comedy panel podcast that I'm
- 1:21:54Speaker 1: on because I miss Tower Gang. He goes. Still check
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: out the old episodes of Tower Gang if you want
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: to see the most offensive podcast on the Plan and
- 1:22:03Speaker 1: then unfortunately we disbanded. I would love to get that
- 1:22:08Speaker 1: thing back together. Man. I we'll see what happens. Thank you, sir.
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Uh dude, I'm glad as well tell
- 1:22:15Speaker 1: people about it. Hopefully I can. I can continue being
- 1:22:17Speaker 1: as hot as I have been. I've been on fire
- 1:22:20Speaker 1: since September. It was a bad year kind of up
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: to this point. March was just terrible. So the last
- 1:22:27Speaker 1: three months have been unbelievably good. So we can't continue
- 1:22:31Speaker 1: to run at this rate. But I don't know. I
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: know what I'm doing, so at least there is that,
- 1:22:37Speaker 1: at least I like to think. I do the Twitter check. Yeah,
- 1:22:40Speaker 1: it's a shout out to Lolita Diaries. I gave her
- 1:22:44Speaker 1: an entire album. That's gonna do it. I'll be back tomorrow,
- 1:22:50Speaker 1: probably a small board it usually is on Monday. We'll
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: see college basketball is back in action, and I'm going
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: to start doing I'll probably start doing bracketology videos because
- 1:23:00Speaker 1: I do my own bracketology, and why not. I like
- 1:23:04Speaker 1: talking about it and I'm obsessed with March madness. So
- 1:23:07Speaker 1: maybe i'll start doing those on like Sundays or something after,
- 1:23:11Speaker 1: you know, the after the Saturday chaos happens. So I
- 1:23:16Speaker 1: don't know, we'll see. I forget when when do the
- 1:23:18Speaker 1: new rankings come out Monday or Sunday? In basketball? I forget,
- 1:23:21Speaker 1: But we'll see. Yeah, no more yeah no Epstein. Yeah,
- 1:23:25Speaker 1: that's just that's her name on Twitter. She's in her twenties.
- 1:23:29Speaker 1: We're all right, you have a good day as well.
- 1:23:34Speaker 1: Peace for now, everybody,