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Navigating September Stagnation: Oil, AI, and HighYield Headwinds · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello and welcome back to Spy Trader .
• 0:03
  I am your host , Penny Wise , and I am here to help you make sense of these markets .
• 0:07
  It is 2:30 pm on Monday , September 28th , 2026 , out here on the Pacific Coast .
• 0:14
  We do this every few hours because , as we all know , a lot can happen in a New York minute !
• 0:19
  Right now , the market is navigating what we are calling September stagnation .
• 0:24
  The major indices are pulling back from those record highs we enjoyed in August .
• 0:30
  The S&P 500 , which we follow through the SPY ETF , is trading at 7,683.69 , down about 0.77 percent today .
• 0:42
  The Nasdaq , or the QQQ , is taking a bigger hit , down 1.1 percent at 26,789.34 , mostly because those high interest rates are squeezing growth stocks .
• 0:57
  Even the Dow , the DIA , is down roughly 0.75 percent to 51,442.57 .
• 1:05
  The big story today is a classic riskoff move .
• 1:08
  We are seeing oil prices surge and Treasury yields hitting multiyear highs .
• 1:13
  The 10year Treasury yield has reached 5.2 percent , which is the highest we have seen since 2007 .
• 1:20
  That is a massive headwind for stocks .
• 1:22
  On top of that , geopolitical tensions are heating up .
• 1:26
  President Trump rejected ceasefire terms with Iran over the weekend , which has people worried about oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz .
• 1:35
  Crude oil is now jumping toward 95 dollars a barrel .
• 1:39
  In the sectors , Energy is our bright spot .
• 1:42
  The XLE is performing well because of those higher oil prices .
• 1:46
  But Technology , the XLK , is acting as a drag today , even though it has been up about 7.5 percent this month .
• 1:55
  NVIDIA is making headlines with a 12.93 billion dollar deal to buy Hugging Face .
• 2:01
  They are really trying to own the whole AI process from hardware to software distribution .
• 2:07
  We also saw some drama with Meta and Amazon .
• 2:10
  Meta's Muse AI agent is doing great with almost 3 million downloads , but Amazon reportedly blocked it from their storefront .
• 2:19
  That has sparked a big debate about digital rights .
• 2:23
  Tesla is also having a rough day , down 3.9 percent to 357.45 .
• 2:29
  JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both trimmed their outlooks for Tesla because demand is softening in China and the U.S.
• 2:36
  Plus , they had to move their big Roadster event to October 15th because of the weather .
• 2:42
  The Fed is also playing a big role here .
• 2:45
  Following the midSeptember meeting , they raised rates to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent .
• 2:52
  The new Chair , Kevin Warsh , is being very hawkish , telling everyone he wants to get inflation back to 2 percent , even though Core PCE is still sitting at 3.3 percent .
• 3:03
  So , what should you do with your money ?
• 3:05
  Here are our concrete recommendations .
• 3:07
  First , we suggest a strategic rebalance toward energy .
• 3:11
  Specifically , look at the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE .
• 3:16
  As long as those tensions in the Middle East persist , oil prices will have a floor .
• 3:22
  This gives you exposure to giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron .
• 3:26
  Second , for growth , we think it is a good time for a tactical move into AI .
• 3:31
  Use today's dip in the QQQ or NVIDIA as an entry point .
• 3:35
  NVIDIA’s purchase of Hugging Face creates a huge moat for them , and Meta’s AI agent is already showing it can generate real interest .
• 3:43
  This is infrastructure that is actually making money , not just speculation .
• 3:48
  Third , be very careful with longterm bonds .
• 3:52
  We recommend staying neutral or underweight on the iShares 20plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , known as TLT .
• 4:00
  With yields at 5.2 percent and the Fed likely to hike again , we do not think we have hit the bottom yet .
• 4:07
  You might be better off in shortterm cash equivalents or Treasury Bills that are yielding over 5 percent right now .
• 4:13
  Finally , for Tesla , we say hold and wait .
• 4:18
  Between the JPMorgan downgrade and the upcoming delivery data on October 2nd , there is a lot of uncertainty .
• 4:25
  Let us wait for the Roadster event on October 15th to get a clearer picture of their AI platform strategy before putting new money in .
• 4:33
  That is your update for this Monday afternoon .
• 4:36
  Thanks for tuning in to Spy Trader .
• 4:38
  I am Penny Wise , and I will be back in a few hours with more updates .
• 4:43
  Stay safe out there !