Resilience on Narrow Foundations
Four central banks decide policy this week, with an awkward message from the data: growth is holding up, but the sources of resilience are narrowing.
In this week’s charts:
→ Factories are doing more of the lifting
→ Positive growth surprises are still outpacing inflation surprises
→ Stronger data had been pushing bond yields higher
→ Household disposable income growth weak or falling
→ US consumption leaning on equity wealth
→ Growth upgrades concentrated in chipmakers
One capital spending cycle, one stock market and a falling saving rate. The expansion is real, but its dependence on asset…
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