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NFL is Back! Week One Picks! Stats Galore! · Three For The Money

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  3 for the Money is brought to you by the Trend Center app. This is the best tool for sports
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  betting research. The Trend Center app, you can test betting systems from the past 20 years,
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  And football is officially back. All of it. Not just college, the NFL is back.
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  You'll be here in this Tuesday morning. So it'll be Thursday. Thursday morning.
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  And then it'll be back tonight, the future from now. So yeah, we're back Thursday night.
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  The NFL is back. But before we kind of dive into that, how we do in gentlemen.
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  Sean, how are you? I know you want to get this over with.
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  It's okay. I'm doing fine. It was really nice to have five days of college football last week.
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  Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. It was awesome. Just game after game, banger after banger.
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  Betting win after loss and you know, more loss and some wins. But yeah, I was, I'm very excited for
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  this weekend where we also get to do the same thing. But for the pros, all mixed in there. So
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  that's exciting. So yes, Chris, how are you? I mean, how can you be sad in times like these?
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  College football, we had like you said, five straight days of it. Gambling wise was fine.
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  Trading water pretty much. But I mean, the NFL is back. I got a full page of notes. And I'm ready
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  to talk some ball with the fellas. Oh, yes. My notes are full on my laptop. Just full of notes.
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  I got a couple notes. I got about half a page. Not a full page, but
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  yeah, I did pretty well on the five days of college football was quite the treat.
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  You know, used the trend center a lot. I'm not going to lie. I'm not going to front. It didn't
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  just come from my old, my old melon right here. So I'm not going to take credit. I'm going to give
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  credit where as do probably a lot of it. But I ended up going up 10 units over five days with,
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  you know, with any combination of like boosts, insurance tokens, you know,
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  shit that sportsbooks just give out. And I was on MGM, not sponsored. And they just didn't have
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  a couple of the games that were on Saturday. So I had to deposit some in the draft Kings
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  because draft Kings was the only one that gave any sort of like deposit bonus. And it was,
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  I deposited like 25 bucks. And then the bonus they give is a $25 free bet. You know, that's like the
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  max you can get from like a like a bonus bet. And so I got a the $25 bonus bet. And I was like,
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  all right, I got a I got a new something here. And so I decided to go with the the Iowa under,
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  I forgot who they're reliable. Yeah, old reliable. It's never never failed me.
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  It's probably failed me a couple times. But that that became an unnecessary sweat.
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  Towards the end, under 40 and a half. Obviously, if you watch the game, you know that it cashed.
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  And I was elated to celebrate. Yeah, I actually went like 500 on Saturday. But since I had that nuke
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  on on that Iowa under, it was quite profitable weekend for me, but I ended up going 10 units,
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  going up 10 units overall. So yeah. But now we now we move on. Now, now we're on to the big boys,
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  we're on to the show, we're on to the NFL, the NFL officially back. Before we get into this,
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  just want to say we are brought to you by the Trend Center. Check us out, link in the bio,
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  the number one tool for sports betters. I use it practically every week. I literally went up 10
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  units over over the weekend. I can't say that, you know, that's that's a promise for for y'all.
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  But if time shows that keep using the Trend Center, and you will make money, it's just science, science
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  and math. But yeah, that's a doctor by the Trend Center. Okay, dude, do I just want to dive in
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  right now, dude? Yes, I'm excited. We're just gonna do okay. So we're going to start off with
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  Thursday night football. Normally, we don't talk about Thursday night football, because
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  there's not a lot of time in between show release and the game. We normally let band to pick that
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  one. But we're just going to talk about it because it's back, which officially back. So we got the
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  Ravens at the Chiefs. Chiefs are favorites at home by three points. Yeah, that's it's, it's can the
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  Chiefs three Pete or can the can the Ravens fucking do something, you know, it's week one.
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  Yeah, it is week one. How can they three Pete on week one? I've just you know, like season
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  aspirations. Okay, yeah, type shit, you know. Well, the Chiefs win the Super Bowl in week one.
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  No, but they can certainly lose it. And I'll tell you why. I'm taking the Ravens. I'm taking the
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  Ravens money line. This is a revenge game, plain and simple. Ravens have loaded up on both sides
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  of the ball. And they have a lot to prove. And after losing the AFC Championship game against
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  the Chiefs, you know, a couple drop balls, couple bad calls. Who knows how that yeah, okay, Chris.
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  Yeah. But yeah, the well, I'll say my piece after this. Okay. But I think that I think the Ravens
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  come out hot and heavy and like much like last year's week one match up against the Lions.
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  Lions had a lot to prove. Ravens have, I think more to prove this year than the Lions did.
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  But I know that the Chiefs are back to back Super Bowl champs. Everyone's going to be on them.
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  Everyone wants them to cover. I'm telling you, take the Ravens. Chris, do you have, are you in
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  agreeance or? I agree with you. I guess not as strongly because I'm just taking on the spread.
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  I'm taking Ravens plus three. Just because this is going to be a tight game. It is.
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  Everything you've just said, the Ravens are pissed. They have loaded up at pretty much every position.
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  Obviously, they get Derek Henry, the Chiefs were a middle of the pack, Rush Defense last season.
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  I mean, where's this to say this game means nothing to the Chiefs. It means absolutely.
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  Like the first half of the season pretty much means nothing to them.
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  Just the way they can turn it on, it seems like at the drop of a hat. The Ravens, they need this one.
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  For everything you've said. Also, Lamar in the regular season as a dog, seven-to-one against the spread.
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  Then, yeah. If anything, they're going to be on the run.
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  If I take money line, Chiefs are going to win on the last second field. Well, I guarantee.
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  Don't take the money line. I'm not. I'm taking Ravens plus three.
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  Yeah, they need it more. And yeah, I think they get it.
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  I think they get it. I think they get it.
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  Well, what are you taking? I am also on the Ravens money line. I am going full force.
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  Yeah, I didn't think about how the Ravens just want it more. I didn't think about that,
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  but that's a very good point. Yeah, the Chiefs can just turn it on.
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  And this is easily, you take the Chiefs and it's just a chalk pick because they just won the Super Bowl
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  or they're looking at three Pete. Oh, let's take the Chiefs. No, you don't take the Chiefs.
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  You take the Ravens. This also used to happen with the New England Patriots.
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  If you recall back in the day, they would win the Super Bowl and then they lose week one.
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  And then everyone would be like, this is the year. This is the year that Tom Brady
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  fucking breaks his leg or just like regresses to a fifth round draft pick that he is.
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  And so that never really happened. So I'm taking the Ravens money line here.
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  It's I was thinking about taking the spread, but at the same time football is back.
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  I'm betting on winners. I'm taking the winner. It's a close spread. I think this game will be
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  close. Could be a sweater. It's probably going to stink too. It's probably not going to be a very
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  good game, honestly. It'll be a good game. It won't be like 49-47, but it'll be a good game.
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  Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you know, I'm not going to bet the under right now. I don't have it locked in,
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  but I do have the money line locked in. Obviously, we're going to ride with Bandit.
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  The news is, since we're talking about Thursday night football and given a pick,
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  Bandit's given a pick for the over and under. So stay tuned for that one.
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  But yeah. Okay. Next game Friday in Brazil. Packers at Eagles kind of Eagles minus two.
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  I got to be honest. I have a slight read on on who may win this game, but nothing,
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  nothing, nothing strong, nothing strong. Chris, what do you have?
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  Taking another dog, taking the Packers plus two and a half. Jordan Love looked like legitimate
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  MVP candidate the last half of the season last year. I think he keeps it rolling. Packers are
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  kind of like, I would say under the radar, like really good team. Like I know they beat the
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  shit out of the Cowboys in playoffs last season and then they could have beat the 49ers, but I just
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  not a lot of people are talking to them. Like people talk about Jordan Love being amazing.
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  This whole team is really good. We got a lot of weapons on offense. I think they can kind of get
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  after this rebuilt Eagles secondary that will probably take a little bit to kind of gel together.
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  And the Packers defense pretty damn good too. And defense travels. So I'm taking Packers plus
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  two and a half. I don't know if you all saw this. I saw this on Twitter. This team fears nothing.
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  They flew through the Bermuda Triangle to get to Brazil. Whoa. Oh, yeah, Packers. Yeah. Well,
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  I guess maybe both teams did, but I saw the Packers. How would you even risk it?
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  Because they feared nothing. This team like, so nobody did that. I thought you die.
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  Packers said fuck that. So how can you bet against a team that fears nothing,
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  not even death itself? Packers plus two and a half.
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  Wow. It's hard to argue with that. Sean, what are you taking?
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  This is a under 49 for me. Not only have these unders hit in seven of their last 10 matchups,
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  this is a prime time international under these guys are not even allowed to leave their hotel
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  rooms in fear of being slaughtered in the streets allegedly. But I have a feeling that these guys
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  want to get in and get out. So that's exactly what I'm betting here is just an under. Just
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  take the under. Don't think about it. It's easy. Under 49. That's a lot of points.
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  That is. Yeah. I don't hate that. It's when you said get in, get out. I saw a thing where like the
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  Eagles fans were telling like people and feel like don't come. Stay home. Like it's terrible down here.
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  Like, I don't know what they're just get in, play our game, get out.
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  So I don't know why they're doing this to be completely honest, but more power to them.
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  I hope they all get home safely. But yeah, stay in your rooms, fellas, and just go.
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  Just go safe, boys. Go play a ball game. Go play a ball game. That's all I have fun.
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  I am also on the under for the exact same reasons. It's don't overthink it. They're traveling to
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  Brazil. No one wants to be there. Just keep it simple. Under 48 and a half. I got I haven't I
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  haven't put that one in, but like a line could move for me. I don't hate that either. I might
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  hop on that as well with this line. I will say when I was putting in my picks today,
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  I locked them all in, but this line started out at 47 and a half. And by the time I actually
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  locked in my pick, I got it to 49. So I think people are on the over to make it move. But
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  even more reason to take the under here. Yeah, could be the move. It is the move. Anyway, next
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  game. This is the I believe this is only this is the only noon Sunday game that we're talking about.
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  And that's Texans Colts. The Colts are home dogs by three points. I guess I'll take this one.
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  I'll start this one off. I hate to do it. But I think I'm taking the Colts. I it's the numbers,
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  man, like the numbers like I looked back. Stay with me. I looked back at last year,
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  we posted a tech talk that did very well of Chris. And this stat division dogs
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  in week one. They're against the spread is something like something crazy like 40 and 10.
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  It's it's 79% of the time. Yeah. And so this is purely that I'm taking plus three. I don't
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  believe in the Colts. But this is a science pick backed by science and math. So I mean,
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  that's kind of it. I kind of hate the Colts. But I also hate the Texans. The Texans are easily the
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  better team on paper. But that's that's all I got. Chris, you seem to shelled. So I, I'm just
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  surprised that you're saying this pick is backed by numbers and science when you're ignoring,
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  which has probably been the most popular betting trend I've seen float around on Twitter the last
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  few days. We'll assume you haven't seen this. Do you know the Colts record against the spread in
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  their last 16 week one games is probably not good. It's fucking terrible. It's one 14 and one.
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  I have seen I have seen this as well. Yeah. Do you want another stat that'll blow your dick off?
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  Yeah. Anthony Richardson. Okay, actually, I'll let you guess. How many games do you think Anthony
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  Richardson the starting Tony as Sean likes to call them the starting quarterback for the Indian
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  apolis Colts? How many games do you think he has started since he got his high school diploma?
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  Oh, God. We only played one year at Florida. He played three. Well, he was there for three.
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  I guess he's did he I'm gonna go I'm gonna go 12. Is it lower? Okay, 15. Okay, you're kind of taking
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  the piss out of this. I assume to be a low number. I think you think 12. That's one full college
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  season. And did he play one full college season? Yeah, but like it's 17. Okay, he's an NFL quarterback
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  and he started 17 games since high school. That's fucking crazy. You guys are not reacting to the
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  appropriate way. That's insane. I'm just I'm just thinking a lot. I'm processing. That is crazy. No,
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  you're right. Like a full college season at like least is 11 games. That's fucking
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  it's 12 games. Excuse me. I don't know why I said 11. It's 12. It's crazy, man. Like I don't know how
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  that works. Are you taking the points? I'm taking the Texans all damn day. I just I do not
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  spread. Yeah, minus three. I don't believe in the Colts whatsoever. I mean, the Texans are
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  everyone and their mother is blowing them and I don't think they're gonna be as good.
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  I just don't believe in the Colts whatsoever. I don't think really any part of this team is all
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  that good. So that especially coupled with their god awful record against the spread in week one,
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  I'm laying it with the Texans. It might be it might be a trap, but you know what? If I fall for it,
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  I fall for it. I'm taking Texas minus three. Sean, what are we taking? I am also on the Colts.
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  Okay. Yeah, as as will mentioned, I also dug up the the tick tock from last year. It's very good
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  it's very good tick tock. It's very good backed by science, good percentage numbers. But here,
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  but here's a stat also. Did you know that the Texans have historically struggled to win their
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  first game of the season in recent years, winning just one of their last nine and tying another
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  against two the Colts? Oh yeah. Plus, Tony Richardson is back or revenge. He's back
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  with John Taylor in the backfield. I like the Colts to upset the Texans here. I think this
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  could be a trap game, as you mentioned, Chris, but Will and I are not taking the cheese. And if you
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  want to take the cheese, I completely get it. But we're all sticking to our guns here and I respect
• 20:57
  the hell out of that. I'm glad y'all are saying some positive words about that tick tock because
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  not a lot of people did. Yeah, there was a lot of a lot of people saying some not nice things.
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  Did they not? No, I remember talking about that. This is what you get for just floating a stat out
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  there. Bet them all that pussy. Jesus. I think I might actually have done that. Yeah, I mean,
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  there's probably a couple good stat sprinkled in there. But wow. If I recall, a lot of people
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  were not very nice, which I mean, that's the internet. I think one of them was like,
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  you're taking the Giants versus the Cowboys on week one. That ended up being a terrible
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  blitz. That did end up being a terrible pick. I didn't know because I did bet them all because
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  I was like, the Giants are going to get their doors blown off, but I have to take this and they got
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  it. It's like 42 to three or half time or some shit. Yeah, that was those picks though, like,
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  if you took all of them, you won most of them came out on top. Yeah, you won at least 79% of the
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  the picks. Yeah, at least. But yeah, I remember a lot of people like and I wasn't even saying like,
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  oh, this particular team against whoever it was just floating it out there. You gave a couple of
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  takes a couple, but it wasn't like it wasn't I don't think I took like a hard stance against
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  it. Maybe I did. I don't recall exactly. I don't recall it saying like, oh, this team fucking sucks.
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  You did. You said someone you said like the like, the cults are going to be ass.
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  I think in that, I'm just saying, that's what you said. In that. I do remember in that tick
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  talk though, you said you were high on the Panthers this year. Okay, but you two were where most of that hate came from.
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  Like, I do. Yeah, I do remember. I was just looking at it and I was like, oh, he did say
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  I'm really high on them or not. Or maybe not. You said I am really high on the Panthers this year.
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  Oh, God. Okay. Well, that's all we can all be right. Yeah, but can't bet a thousand, I guess.
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  Anyway, next game. All right, next game. Game of the week. Game of the week. Cowboys at the Browns.
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  Browns at home favorites by two and a half.
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  Sean, what do you what do you think I'm going under 40 and a half here.
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  The Browns defense was incredible at home last year, just allowing 13.9 points per game.
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  The Cowboys who had the best offense in the league per points per game last year.
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  But they did lose some talent on the O-line. So they will have to start a geriatric Ezekiel
• 24:18
  Elliott and CDLAM who just started practicing this week. So I think Dallas's attack will be slow.
• 24:26
  And Browns could go either way. I mean, I would not see I cannot see them running the ball very
• 24:35
  much, but I think they will with Jerome Ford. But yeah, I think the under is clearly the play here.
• 24:47
  Will.
• 24:50
  I honestly can't get a read on this game, but I think I'm going to take the Cowboys.
• 24:55
  This just feels like, this just feels like, like if I took the Brown to be like, dude,
• 25:01
  the Cowboys stink, they didn't get anyone in the offseason. They they lost a lot of people. Zeke
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  sucks. Dak is overrated CDs kind of, you know, just started practicing. And then the the fucking
• 25:14
  Cowboys went by like 30. And I that's just I feel like I could just visualize it. I feel like I've
• 25:18
  lived that that exact moment. It feels like with the Cowboys, I feel like I could just visualize it.
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  I feel like I've lived that that exact moment. It feels like with the Cowboys. So I'm going to get
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  ahead of it. I'm taking Cowboys plus two and a half.
• 25:36
  Clearly kind of a I think this is a trap kind of play. But Christopher, what do you think?
• 25:44
  I 100% agree with Sean. I got 41. So I'll take that half a point. But I for everything Sean said,
• 25:53
  Cowboys rebuilding offense line. The Browns defense is amazing. The Dallas defense isn't
• 25:59
  is pretty damn good too. And I also just don't trust the Browns to do anything. Like, I mean,
• 26:05
  Chubb obviously isn't going to play is Watts is the Sean pulling? I have no idea.
• 26:10
  I'm pretty sure it's like he should. He has to he has to start. But I feel like I read something
• 26:17
  and this could have been just incredibly false or I'm remembering it wrong. But I thought I read
• 26:21
  something in like training camp where he like still hadn't thrown a ball since his shoulder
• 26:26
  surgery. And I was like, bro, that was like nine months ago. But regardless, if that's true or
• 26:35
  not, the Sean Watson just is not good anymore. So I don't trust either offense to do anything.
• 26:41
  And I have no idea what the weather is going to be. But if I turn this game on and it's just
• 26:45
  dumping rain, I wouldn't be surprised at all. So yeah, under 41.
• 26:52
  Oh, yeah. Okay. Next game Sunday night football Rams at Lions. I have a feeling I know what Chris
• 27:02
  is going to pick. So I'm going to throw it to him anyway. Chris, what are you going to pick?
• 27:08
  All right. The Detroit football Lions will begin their quest for their first ever
• 27:14
  Super Bowl with a win and a cover on Sunday night football against their former savior,
• 27:22
  not I guess not savior, their former quarterback, Matthew Stafford. I mean,
• 27:27
  I this is another game feels like a trap three in the hook. I hate it. But I just look at
• 27:33
  this Lions team and I just think they are top to bottom better at almost every position.
• 27:39
  I think their offense is too good for a defense who lost Hall of Famer, who just traded Ernest
• 27:45
  Johnson, who or Jones, Ernest Jones, excuse me, Titans legend. And they got a new decoordinator.
• 27:53
  I just think Detroit has too many weapons for them to handle right now.
• 28:00
  Yeah, I just think they're I think they're better in their defense. I think the Rams are going to
• 28:05
  run the ball. And I think the Lions have a really good run defense. So I think they're,
• 28:11
  I just think they're better. And I hate, I hate it. I hate that I like three in the hook so much,
• 28:16
  but I'm taking it. I'm sticking to my guns. I'm taking three and a half
• 28:21
  Lions on their way to the Super Bowl. Sean, what are you taking?
• 28:25
  Well, you know what I'm taking. You gotta go Lions find a three and a half.
• 28:30
  Let's go. We've mentioned the Lions, how good they're going to be for like the past three weeks,
• 28:38
  three, four weeks now. And you know that we're pretty hot. We're pretty damn high on the Lions
• 28:45
  this year. So let's take them to come out swinging on Sunday night football against the Rams.
• 28:50
  This I think this should actually be a great matchup. And it is weird to say,
• 28:56
  but the Lions have a better defense than the Rams after, you know,
• 29:05
  legend Aaron Donnell gone, you know, it's, it's weird to say, but they do have a better defense
• 29:12
  than the Rams. This was a close game in the divisional round of the playoffs, but I expect
• 29:17
  the Lions to make a leap this year and cover the spread easy. Final score 27 20. Don't hate that.
• 29:29
  That was good. Dude, I'm on. You're on the under. No, well, no, I'm on the same thing as you guys.
• 29:37
  Okay. And my feelings towards this is the same as Chris's. Like it's just, is it this easy?
• 29:51
  Like, just like on paper, they have a better team. And it just, they have the dudes and they
• 29:58
  are a better team. The Rams don't have the dudes. It's kind of as simple as that. It's just like,
• 30:04
  it just feels easy. I don't know. And also like Jarragoff in a dome has a great against the spread
• 30:12
  record. Good thing he lives there. Did you see he's playing, I think they're playing 14 out of
• 30:20
  their 17 regular season games inside this season. The Super Bowl has it, it is a straight path to
• 30:28
  the Super Bowl. Yes, it is a straight road to the Super Bowl this year for Jarragoff.
• 30:37
  He better win it.
• 30:42
  Yeah, I mean, I'm taking the Lions minus three and a half. I don't know. I mean, I do know, but
• 30:52
  whatever. It's been a long day. Yeah, Lions minus three and a half Jarragoff in a dome.
• 31:02
  I, I'm not fully like, gonna go full force in the unders just yet. But I'm thinking about it.
• 31:11
  I'm thinking about it a lot. I'm thinking about just winning some money, you know.
• 31:14
  It's that easy. It's that easy. Cool. Alright, fellas, moving on. Last game we're really going
• 31:23
  to dive deep into is Monday night football Jets at the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are home
• 31:30
  favorites by four points. This is, this is Monday night football. This, this will be the
• 31:38
  completion, the, the, the cherry on top of the Sunday that completes the week one of the NFL season.
• 31:48
  What I forgot to write down my pick. Hang on. What do you go first while I remember what I picked?
• 31:57
  So I'll go first. Okay, I got it. I'll just start out by saying, I think the 49ers can
• 32:04
  make a real deep run this year. Hot take. I know. But here are a few, here are a few trends I found
• 32:14
  in favor of the Jets. The Super Bowl loser is 420, 4 and 20 against the spread since week in week one
• 32:24
  since 2000. The 49ers have lost four of their last five games as moderate favorites, ranging from
• 32:33
  minus three and a half to minus seven and a half. The road team has won four of the 49ers last five
• 32:41
  week one games. The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games in
• 32:48
  California. The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the 49ers last seven games at Levi's
• 32:56
  stadium. So I think you should take the Jets plus four and a half because I'm taking the Jets four
• 33:06
  plus four and a half just solely off of what I found doing research today. You can't really
• 33:16
  argue with this. I don't think. I mean, numbers, numbers, science, math, you know, all the all the
• 33:26
  stuff that they teach in school. This is what school prepares you for. This is what's yes for
• 33:32
  winning gambling bets for being a degenerate gambler. So yeah, Jets plus four and a four and a
• 33:39
  half is my pick. God, I hope Aaron Rodgers doesn't go down again in week one Monday night.
• 33:48
  It's well, they're setting up the recipe. They're just cooking the same cake that they did last
• 33:53
  year, but they covered that game. They won that game. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's awesome.
• 34:01
  But yes, Jets plus four and a half. Chris, I wish I would have gone first because you
• 34:11
  know, you didn't look too excited. I had two of those stats written down. I didn't know there
• 34:17
  were that many of those. That was good. I mean, it's just plus four or four and a half. Excuse me.
• 34:23
  I don't I'm starting to sell a little bit of San Francisco stock. I don't
• 34:29
  know. It's kind of the point where it's like, is it ever gonna happen?
• 34:36
  In long term, like in, will they lift the Lombardi? Yeah. Yeah. No, I don't think so.
• 34:43
  But it's gonna make deep runs. And I was that has nothing to do with this game, but that was just
• 34:48
  kind of me going to saying I'm taking the Jets. I think they're the Jets defense is amazing.
• 34:55
  And I think if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, we could see a little maybe NFL script action coming
• 35:03
  in where this game comes down to a field goal. So if that's the case, give me a plus four and a
• 35:09
  half dog every day. Yeah, that's I mean, Sean kind of took half of what I was gonna say. So yeah,
• 35:17
  I mean, no, I respect you. You got to my bed. Jets was four and a half. You told me to go first.
• 35:22
  I did. I regret it. As soon as you started talking like this motherfucker.
• 35:28
  So yeah, Jets. Will, what are you taking? I am also on the Jets and I'll probably double dip in
• 35:34
  this game on the over, not over the under. Well, prime time over.
• 35:43
  Yeah, I don't know. No, it's the it's the under. I mean, do you set it yourself? The Jets have
• 35:50
  a fantastic defense and I mean, sort of the 49ers. I mean, if they're I mean, just, you know, they
• 35:57
  got dudes. And so I'll probably end up double dipping, but I will be taking the Jets plus four here.
• 36:06
  But yeah, that's that's kind of our main slate. Next, we go into our surefire picks of the week.
• 36:14
  If you're new to the show, this is year number three doing the show with your surefire picks.
• 36:20
  These are double unit plays. These are our bets that we got that we are sure surefire they're
• 36:29
  going to hit. Yeah, where to go, Will? Double unit guaranteed not to lose. We've none of us has
• 36:39
  ever lost a surefire pick. I don't I don't I don't know. Not that I can recall. Yeah, I don't
• 36:45
  really know. Yeah, surely not. So, dude, I guess I'll go first. My surefire pick this week.
• 36:56
  We already kind of talked about it, dude. It's under 48 and a half in the Packers Eagles game,
• 37:03
  brother, that nobody wants to be here. Darius Slay was literally like, I don't understand why we
• 37:11
  have to go. He went on like a podcast or something. And he's like, I don't I don't know why they would
• 37:17
  do that do this to us. I really don't want to go like the the crime there is awful. It's awful.
• 37:26
  And like Chris said before, defense travels, offense does not. It's in Brazil. Nobody wants to
• 37:32
  be there. They're going to eat some of their their weird street food. Someone's going to give it to
• 37:37
  them because they're not going to be able to go. They're going to eat the street food,
• 37:40
  going to get dysentery, and they're going to have a terrible, terrible game. So I will be taking
• 37:46
  under 48 and a half in the Brazil game on Friday. Surefire double unit play guaranteed not to lose.
• 37:55
  Sean, are you all right? Not. Yeah, not only did they travel through the Bermuda Triangle,
• 38:00
  they they went through the Oregon Trail and got dysentery. But hey, people still get dysentery.
• 38:08
  That's why diarrhea starts with die. Because you die. Because you get dehydrated.
• 38:16
  That was beautiful. Well, it's science. This is a science based podcast. I don't know where you
• 38:24
  guys have been. But we're all about science here. All right. It's true. Okay.
• 38:35
  Wait, who's going next? I'll go. I'll go. Yeah, like, like Will, it's another game that, you know,
• 38:44
  we already talked about it, but I am I'm double dipping on which, thanks to draft kings, I have,
• 38:49
  I have boosted to plus money. I am taking the Ravens plus three and a half. So I'm on the Ravens
• 38:58
  plus three and a half and money line all plus money. You're going to bet the dog on money line
• 39:04
  might as well bet the spread. Easy. I don't feel like I have to go too much into it. If you
• 39:11
  want more reasons, you can rewind the episode and listen from whatever market is. But yeah,
• 39:19
  Ravens plus three is my surefire double unit guaranteed to win winner. Yes, yeah, Chris.
• 39:27
  All right, you guys went with a couple of prime time games. I'm going with a game that I think
• 39:34
  about 55 people are going to watch Washington commanders plus three and a half against the
• 39:42
  Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And I got a stat from our friends over at trend center. So
• 39:52
  since 2005, in week one, when a team who missed the playoffs in the previous year is a dog with
• 40:01
  a spread of less than 13 and a total of more than 35, that team is 71, 36 and four against the spread
• 40:11
  eight and two in the last 10. So I am taking the Washington commanders cover three and a half.
• 40:19
  I think they're allowed to win the game. I do not think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very good.
• 40:24
  I think they won a lot of close games last year against some teams who were not very good.
• 40:32
  So I think I think I think commanders they cover they at least cover. I think they could win this
• 40:38
  game. But I'm taking double unit. I'm going to play a little safe. I'm taking plus three and a half
• 40:43
  the Washington commanders as we say on this show.
• 40:47
  Manders.
• 40:52
  Manders. Those are surefire double unit picks. I mean, all you got to do is just parlay them and
• 41:02
  double unit and what I mean, we're just giving away money. We're just giving away money. This
• 41:06
  is just how this works. This is a science based podcast. Drop in science every single minute.
• 41:15
  Okay. So extra plays, extra plays. Chris, you do your extra plays first.
• 41:23
  All right. We'll get into them. This is almost my surefire play. So we'll start off the bonus
• 41:30
  place with this dolphins team total over 26 and a half against the Jags. The Jags defense is
• 41:35
  atrocious. I mean, plain and simple. They suck. This is when the dolphins trick us into thinking
• 41:42
  they're a legitimately good football team. They're going to run it up. They're going to hang it on
• 41:46
  them. You're asking me that just for the dolphins to score 27 points against a God awful secondary
• 41:54
  in week one in Florida. Give it to me every day. Every damn day. It was almost my surefire, but
• 42:00
  something about them managers, man. Got my heart. All right. Next Vikings money line against the
• 42:10
  New York football giants. If you're going to give me a minus 120 against the Giants, I'm going to
• 42:15
  take it every day. The Giants are God awful football team. The Vikings, I know JJ McCarthy
• 42:22
  done for the year, but they still got some dudes. Obviously, they have the best receiver in football.
• 42:28
  Jordan Jefferson. I mean, Addison's not that bad. I shouldn't say it's not that bad. He's pretty good.
• 42:33
  Sam Donald, I think could be a decent backup quarterback in this league. So better than Nick
• 42:40
  Mullins. He's better than Nick Mullins. He's better than Josh Dobbs, who knows the playbook.
• 42:45
  He's better than pretty much everyone they rolled out there last year. So yeah,
• 42:52
  yeah, given the Vikings money line, you're to beat the Giants. That's all not cover, not cover a
• 43:00
  number. They're minus 120 against the Giants. They're probably gonna get rolled now that I said
• 43:07
  that, but Vikings money line. All right. This one hits home because it is the first time these
• 43:16
  two teams have played since that since that guy, Tyler Murray ripped my heart out with the Hail Murray
• 43:26
  when I had Bill's money line. One of the worst plays I've ever seen. God. And then they showed it
• 43:32
  every damn commercial break for that Amazon stat cast, whatever the hell it was.
• 43:38
  Hoping to be on the right side of history for this one.
• 43:40
  It's Cardinals plus six and a half. I think it touchdowns a lot for Cardinals. I think it's
• 43:50
  gonna be pretty good, dare I say. The bill has got a lot of new guys. I think it might take me a
• 43:56
  little bit to kind of get on the same page. So yeah, give me Cardinals plus six and a half.
• 44:02
  Call me a homer if you want. It's Titans plus four to round it out. It's not just blind faith
• 44:08
  in the boys. It is backed by math and science. Caleb Williams will be the 19th number one
• 44:16
  overall draft pick to start a week one football game. The other 18 are five 12 and one against
• 44:22
  the spread. I just think a lot of people are already chalking this up as a win for the Bears
• 44:30
  because nobody gives a shit about the Titans. They they like they probably don't even know
• 44:36
  they probably think Marcus Mario to sit the quarterback. I this reminds me a lot of when
• 44:42
  the Browns were getting all that offseason hype four years ago, four years ago, I think four or
• 44:48
  five years ago. Browns getting all the OBJ's first OBJ Baker like, Hey, the Browns are actually good
• 44:55
  this year. Watch out. And the Titans went in their house and beat the living shit out of them.
• 45:00
  I'm not saying they're going to womp them that bad, but they're definitely covering the four
• 45:04
  Titans plus four to round it out. Sean, what what is the rest of your card?
• 45:12
  I got Titans plus four. I found a more specific stat that was the first overall
• 45:19
  pick in the draft that is a QB to start game one in the same year is oh 14 and one against the
• 45:27
  spread. Oh heavens. So and I think and I think like all time it's like one and maybe 40 one
• 45:38
  and 40 against the spread. I don't remember what year that goes back to but yeah.
• 45:46
  Mine was just complete just complete ditto on Chris. I mean just it this does give me Browns
• 45:53
  vibes of that that year. But yeah, I mean, realistically, Titans are probably going to lose
• 46:01
  this game by three off field goal. It's it's that's probably going to happen. And this will be the
• 46:09
  game where the Bears fans are like, Oh, Caleb Williams, our savior, our Prometheus, he has
• 46:16
  he will take us to the promised land. And it's like, no, you couldn't cover against the Titans.
• 46:21
  Sorry, Titans plus four. I also have the Jags Finns under 49 and a half. This total has gone under
• 46:31
  in eight of their last nine meetings. Miami has also failed to hit the over in their last five games,
• 46:37
  as well as 12 of their last 17 home games. I expect this game to be a muggy muggy mess. It's
• 46:46
  going to be hot going to be humid humidity at 73%. So just get in drink a Gatorade get out under 49
• 46:56
  and a half. Panther Saints under 41 and a half. This matchup has not gone over in the last seven
• 47:07
  meetings. That's three and a half years. Also, these teams stink. No further explanation.
• 47:14
  What was it 41? Yes. Adding it. Cool. I also have the Cardinals bills under 48. A lot of unders.
• 47:25
  I'm just noticing that. Oh, well, it's week one week one. Yeah. It's week one. Cardinals have
• 47:32
  gotten better than they have been in recent years. For once, everyone is healthy. Kyler coming off the
• 47:39
  ACL injury. I think Arizona is going to utilize James Conner pretty heavily here to really grind
• 47:47
  down that Buffalo defense on the opposite side of the ball. Buffalo has suffered losing Stefan
• 47:53
  Diggs and Gabe Davis in free agency. I think Buffalo will also be running the ball a lot,
• 47:58
  whether it's Allen or Cook handling the ball. I expect that clock to be tick, tick, tick and down.
• 48:04
  So we're going under 48. And the last play of the week. Raiders Chargers over 40 and a half.
• 48:17
  Two of the worst offenses in football last year. Go head to head in week one.
• 48:21
  But this is a divisional matchup. It's always fun. Crazy shit happens, whether it's a 63 to
• 48:28
  21 shootout or an OT thriller. You got a root for points here. I think both of these teams
• 48:34
  average 20 and a half points for game. That's perfect. That equals 41.
• 48:41
  There's a math pod. Math and science.
• 48:47
  That's it. That's it for me. Will, what you got?
• 48:50
  So I do have the Titans plus four. I think the game will more than likely be the outcome of
• 48:59
  what Sean said. We're probably going to lose by a field goal. That just feels more likely.
• 49:08
  And so I'm taking the points. Taking Titans plus four. And then I got three plays back in the
• 49:16
  trend center. Your divisional dogs in week one. I'm taking the Panthers plus four. This might be
• 49:26
  a huge mistake. We'll high on the Panthers this season. I am not high on the Panthers.
• 49:34
  But I do think they probably got better. I think they got a lot better than the Saints.
• 49:41
  I don't know. I hate games that include the Saints. I just cannot get a read on them.
• 49:47
  I hate the Saints. I don't think they're very good. So I'm taking the Panthers.
• 49:50
  I'm taking the Raiders plus three against the Chargers. I think this game is going to be pretty
• 50:00
  muggy. Not like a temperature standpoint, but more like a kind of a rock fight between Antonio,
• 50:08
  a mind battle between Antonio Pearson and not Harbaugh. I think Harbaugh definitely just wants
• 50:20
  to run the rock. That's what he's made his living on. And so that's going to be that.
• 50:29
  Yeah. And the Chargers are still kind of rebuilding where it feels like the
• 50:34
  Raiders have a little more pieces. They obviously, you know, they're starting Gardner-Menshu,
• 50:40
  which he has his moments. He has a couple games a year where he's like very good and then he's
• 50:44
  just dog shit after that. So here's to hoping that this is one of the good Gardner-Menshu games.
• 50:51
  It's taking Raiders plus three, Divisional Dog, Week 1. So yeah, that's it for my picks, the
• 50:56
  Titans plus four, the Panthers plus four, and the Raiders plus three. Y'all were making some pretty
• 51:03
  good picks there that I didn't even think about. Like, I kind of like the Cardinals. I'm going to
• 51:11
  be real. Like, they're going to be better this year. And Trey McBride is going to be pretty good.
• 51:17
  Like he had a pretty good end to last year. And those have basically a whole new defense.
• 51:26
  Vaughn Miller is a shell of itself. What? I will say, good things happen when you and Chris
• 51:32
  bet on the Cardinals. If you remember that Cardinals Raiders game that went to overtime. Oh yeah.
• 51:43
  Where I had the Raiders. That's why I said good things happen to you and Chris
• 51:48
  when you bet on the Cardinals. You know what? I'll take the cards. I totally forgot about that game.
• 51:54
  I will never forget that. I will never forget that. I get it. I get it. That was that was so bad.
• 52:05
  Piss me off. Now we got Sean all riled up. Nah, it was like two years ago. Whatever.
• 52:15
  Okay, I think that's it though. I think that's all we got. Is there anything that we want to
• 52:19
  talk about? Yes, Christopher. I cooked up a Super Mega Lotto first down touchdown score parlay.
• 52:28
  Okay. Okay. First touchdown? Yeah. All first touchdown scores. All right. So we'll see how it goes.
• 52:38
  How many legs? One, two, three, four, five. Okay. So I'll tell you how much to win how much after.
• 52:47
  So it's Seyquan, Jonathan Taylor, Dijon, David Montgomery, and McCaffrey. All the score first.
• 52:58
  It's $2 to win 24 grand. It could happen. Guys, it's worth throwing two bucks on for 24 grand.
• 53:14
  Two bucks to win 24 grand. So if I'm not on the show next week, you know why.
• 53:21
  Good Christ. But yeah. And so my luck, Seyquan will probably not even score and then everyone else
• 53:31
  will hit. The only thing that worries about Seyquan is the the push push. I mean, you know what I mean?
• 53:40
  Like, yeah, I get it. But I could also see them like, we got the new guy. Let's give him a carry.
• 53:48
  Yes. Give him a carry at the two yard line or whatever. Seyquan Barkley. He's also, I mean, he can,
• 53:56
  he can mow some people down. He's got legs as thick as tree trunks and an ass that don't quit.
• 54:03
  So pause. He runs the rock. Hey, that wasn't even a pause. That was blatantly homosexual.
• 54:16
  So yeah, $2 to win 24 grand. Let's go. All right. It's a week one. Let's have some fun.
• 54:24
  Exactly. We're just trying to have fun.
• 54:26
  All right. Is there anything else? I'm good. All right. I'm good. All right.
• 54:38
  Damn it, Chris. Oh, the um,
• 54:44
  so the guy on the 49ers that got shot. Oh, yeah. I heard that after he got, he was shot,
• 54:52
  took the gun from the shooter and shot him. Did you guys see that? I heard that. I think I saw
• 55:01
  on Twitter. I didn't read like the official report, but if, if so, I'm a bad motherfucker.
• 55:09
  Yeah. I heard about it on the radio today and I was like, he shot him back.
• 55:14
  Yeah. I mean, it's wild. Bad motherfucker. Yeah. Oh, one thing that reminded me of this.
• 55:26
  Do you think it might be worth the sprinkle? Damar Hamlin come back player of the year?
• 55:31
  No. He's starting. No. Just saying. He didn't win it the year he died. Well, that's what I'm
• 55:39
  thinking. Maybe voters will be like, Hey, we kind of jipped this guy last year. If he plays and plays
• 55:44
  well, maybe they give it to him. I don't know. What's he coming back? What's he coming back from
• 55:51
  this year? Well, I mean, I think death other than death, I think death gets you an extra year.
• 55:58
  Is that how it works? I mean, there's no precedent for it, but I think it should.
• 56:03
  You think that's in writing somewhere? No, like I just said, there's no precedent for it.
• 56:07
  That's got no one precedent. No, I don't think. I mean, maybe it is. I haven't read the NFL bylaws,
• 56:20
  but I don't think it's written down. But I would, if I were voting in Damar Hamlin played
• 56:27
  really well this year, I would vote for him. He's also coming back from just being embarrassed
• 56:36
  in the playoffs on that God awful fake punt call where McDermott was a fucking Disney channel movie.
• 56:47
  So I mean, if you want to count that, I think if you want to say death is worth a year and a half,
• 56:52
  that's worth half a year. So I think I think he's worth the sprinkle. So I'm saying,
• 56:58
  also, Peer saw it's not going to win it because he's a rookie. Yeah, I feel like can't come back from
• 57:03
  when you were never when you never played. So I mean, Peer saw would be minus like a billion if he
• 57:12
  he still might be the favorite. I don't know if I checked really, but that's the only thing I can
• 57:17
  see with him not winning it. Oh, come on, that or Joe Burrow because he got I mean, yeah, I mean,
• 57:25
  then burrow and like, because it's like, Roger, Roger. Yeah, but a lot of people got her last year.
• 57:30
  Yeah, a lot of quarterbacks to which sucks. But I was thinking like, if DeMar Hamlin plays
• 57:35
  really well, not even really well, like well, maybe has like a big pick or something on like
• 57:41
  if the bills are going to be on TV all the time, I assume I can see voters being like, I mean,
• 57:47
  we did give it to a guy who's coming back from playing for the Jets over the sky last year.
• 57:52
  Maybe we maybe we just throw it to him this year.
• 57:55
  Yeah, good. Marham wasn't isn't even in the top 20 to win.
• 58:02
  Oh, he's definitely worth the sprinkle.
• 58:08
  I mean, Rayon Rogers is plus 100. Russell Wilson is plus 1200. That's those are the top two.
• 58:16
  Russell Wilson isn't going to come back. No, if anything, it'll get benched.
• 58:21
  Also, like, I mean, yeah, that's definitely more likely, but he didn't play like that bad last year.
• 58:28
  Yeah, like he was he was asked the year before that, but he was like very average.
• 58:37
  So like, what do we what? Yeah, I feel like he was more asked the year before. Oh, yeah, he was
• 58:44
  awful to like he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league two years ago.
• 58:47
  I don't know, dude. I mean, I guess I guess it'd be worth a sprinkle. Just say
• 58:56
  goes down again. Yeah, we don't wish that on you tomorrow. I don't. I really don't. But that's
• 59:06
  really the only way I can see him winning if I'm being honest. I mean, yeah, that was worth a
• 59:13
  worth bring, you know. Andy Dalton is rated higher than he is. Who's he playing for?
• 59:23
  Now, we play with the Panthers. He might still be with the Calvary. The Saints. I don't know.
• 59:32
  I know he's coming back for her coming back from. Oh, he's on the Panthers. Yeah. Okay.
• 59:39
  He's still on the Panthers. Wait, what? Did he even play last year? Probably. I guess I'd make
• 59:46
  some more likely to be come back. But I mean, all right, never mind. I played in a Seattle game.
• 59:56
  This is preseason. Oh, no, it's not. No, he played the entire Seattle game, but that was like weak.
• 1:00:04
  Three or four. Weird. No, well, okay. I'm good. All right. Yeah. All right. Well, let's call it
• 1:00:16
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• 1:00:21
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  in everything. Link is in the bio. Ben, it's going to give out a pick here, here in a little bit,
• 1:01:12
  here Wednesday night, here a little bit. I think that's it. I think that's a, I think that's all
• 1:01:18
  I have to say. Thanks for listening and watching. Like comment subscribe really helps us out.
• 1:01:48
  Bye.