Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / FULL 1% Rate Cut!?📉Fed Outlook w/ Rebecca Walser

Transcript

FULL 1% Rate Cut!?📉Fed Outlook w/ Rebecca Walser · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's dive into the FED rate outlook.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Today.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: We'll take a look at how the FED will respond
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: next week. It's going to be a good one. Moname
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: with Paul Barren. Welcome back into the show. I do
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: want to thank our sponsor today, that's I Trust Capital.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: This is where you guys can begin your whole CRYPTOIRA concept.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe you haven't diversified just yet. This is one place
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: that you can go out there and get it started.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: If you haven't set up a CRYPTOIRA before. It's very easy.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: You can either transfer iras in or you can start
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: a brand new one. So it's very simple. Go to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I Trustcapital dot com. You can do everything from crypto
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: silver gold, very flexible. Use our link down below. It's
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: going to give you a one hundred dollars funding reward
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: just to get started, all right. Joining me today is
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Rebecca Waltzer who is coming in as an investment advisor
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: but also with Waltzer wealth manager. And great to have you, Rebecca,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks for having me.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: I'm glad to be here. Paul.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's get into a few points I want
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: to dive in to, and really this is all about
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: FED ray cut. What we're trying to do is get
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: some analysts and also wealth management people to really give
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: us some framework of how the FED is going to
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: address the situation next week. Right now, FED rate cut
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: signals around a three percent inflation, which we saw two
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: point nine come in. Is it the new two percent?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: My question to you is this, when you see inflation
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: going up right now, the likelihood of chair pale faced
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: with a cut in front of him, how do you
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: play this right now? What would be the recommendation?
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great question, Paul, and I will just
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: let your visiers know. So I have a tax law degree,
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: so I am a tax lawyer, but I also have
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: a finance degree and I have a global MBA from
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: the London School of Economics, so I'm very macroeconomically focused
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: in my practice. And obviously I have a lot of
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: people on the technical equity side, but my speciality is
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: tax and macroeconomic global policy. So this is right at
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: my wheelhouse and I'm so glad to talk about it
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: with you today and your audience.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: Powell is between a rock and a hard place. Let's
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: just be honest.
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: The dual mandate that Congress has given the FED is
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: they are in conflict. In other words, in exactly a
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: time such as this where we just had the largest
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: initial job was claimed since October of twenty twenty one,
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: and we're really feeling the pressure now on yields, right,
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: you can see it, and you can see already the
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: rates have dropped, they've preceded. Is I love when the
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: market precedes POW and what the Fed's going to do,
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: because that pretty much tells the FED, this is what
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: you're doing, and that's it. But you know, the dual
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: mandate Paul is the problem here because when you're trying
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: to sustain or help unemployment, you want to have a
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: very lower cost of capital. You want to have a
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: lot of access to capital, and so corporations can go
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: out and higher. Well, if you make and you have
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: an easy or a stimulative policy in the FEDO on
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: the monetary side, then you're going to be creating more
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: pressure on price because you're going to be flooding the
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: market with dollars and more dollars chasing the same finite
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: scarce set of goods and services.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: That we have. Basically means we're going to have inflation.
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: And so these are mandates that are in opposite of
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: each other that are in conflict with each other, and
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: it really puts the FED in a rock in a
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: hard place when you are starting to see the weakness
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: and you're also dealing seeing inflation, and you know that
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: is a really big problem. He hasn't had to really
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: deal with that, I would say in the last five
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: plus years, four years at least, he's had a really
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: strong economy on the JOMPS front, and now he's having
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: to go back and deal with that while he's still
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: concerned about inflation with the tear still yet to come,
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: especially with China.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: So okay, so you got a lot happening here. I
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: want to go back. If you want to find the
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: last time before this cycle that the central Bank's eased
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: policy with core pc inflation at three, you'd have to
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: go back to the early nineteen nineties. I'll zoom in
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: on that so you can kind of see that statement,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: and that was you know, the internet was barely alive
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: at that time, So that's how long ago this kind
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: of situation has occurred. And you look at that right now, Rebecca,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: and I'm just kind of curious, do you think that
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: this is going to continue to see rising inflation going
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: into the fed's cutting cycle if they actually agreed to
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: do it. Do you feel like we're going to continue
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: to see high inflation.
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: The fact is is that we really changed our monetary
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: policy after the global financial crisis in two thousand and
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: two thousand and nine, and we really did implement monern
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: monetary theory, which mono monetary theorists, I'm sure you're aware, Paul,
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: and your audience is very educated, is the theory that
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: you can print infinitem, you can print at nauseum, and
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: as long as you can elect enough tax base to
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: service your interest on your debt, not even actually the
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: retiring of the debt, but just servicing the interest, then
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: you will be okay. That is a kinesy and economic model, obviously,
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: and that is what we have followed. And that is
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: the issue is twenty twenty. If we have to pinpoint
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: one issue, that will probably go back in time. All
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: the white papers will be written fifty yearsrom now. They
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: will probably pinpoint coronavirus. Because globally the world printed the
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: equivalent of about twenty trillion US dollars, not all of
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: it in the US, obviously, the rest of the globe
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: did about ten We did about ten between both fiscal
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: and monetary stimulus.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: When you put that much money in and.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: That short of a time for if you just look
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: at the m TO money supply from just even March
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: to June of twenty twenty, it jumps exponentially and it
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: is never retrenched. We had him to come down a
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: little bit and then come back up. We have the
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: largest m TO ever in June of this year. So
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: when you put that much stimus into system, you can't
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: have transitory inflation. And now I feel like the Fed
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: realizes they're up against the situation where it's going to
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: be constant easing, easying and the constant easing because what
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: has happened, Paul, is we've had the corporations, the banks,
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: the real estate, every industry in the world and specifically
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: here in America has gotten used to very cheap credit,
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: and so that is created acid bubbles. Real estate probably
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: the largest right commercial acid bubbles. Like if you evaluate
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: a property on a two five or a three to
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: five rate, is a lot of a difference on the
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: cash flow discounting when it's done at a six five
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: or a five to five normalized rate. So we have
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: created acid bubbles and that means that we have to
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: constantly grow the money supply in order to be able
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: to sustain this, and that's the problem.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: It's unsustainable.
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: So inflation is by definition at this point where we're
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: at interest now the second largest expense in the federal budget,
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: we are entering a debt spiral. And this is kind
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: of the interesting part of the crypto space because the
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: new technology frontier really is what most real economists are
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: counting on to outpace the interest growth. So, in other words,
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: interest is growing so fast that we have to have
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: something massive like the Fourth Industrial Revolution come along and
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: grow even faster. Otherwise we're going to enter a debt
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: spiral that is not recoverable from. It's just a mathematical
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: certainty at this point.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So, as lenn Aaldo would say, nothing stops
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: his trained is what we're dealing with right now, exactly.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Of course, Now there are some ways you can get
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: around this before we go into that, and we're going
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: to talk about stable coins in your opinion on that.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: In a second, I want to jump over to poly
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: market real quick. This is the poly market for how
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: many fed rate cuts. I'm going to zoom in on
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: this for you guys to see it really closely them
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and I'll highlight right there, and what we're looking at
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: right now is the probability of three three cuts up
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to seventy five basis points, two cuts fifty basis points,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: and then we even now for the first time, we've
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: seen one hundred basis points on the chart from poly
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: market showing up. So my question to you, Rebecca, what
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: happens next week. Did we get a quarter, did we
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: get fifty? What are you thinking?
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: I think that Powell probably wants to maybe lean towards fifty,
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: but I don't think that he'll give the administration the satisfaction.
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: And I also think that a fifty bit cut will
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: actually actually make the market freak out a little bit.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: I think that they would be taking that as an
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: indication that FEDS these more weakness than what we're seeing.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: So right now, odds on eighty eight point eight.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: Percent OUs of this morning that we're just going to
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: get a twenty five bit cut in this next September seventeen.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: Then we'll probably another twenty five bits in the October meeting,
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: and the final twenty five pips in the December meeting,
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: and probably pick up another twenty five pips.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: In the January meeting, so you'll have three.
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: To four and very short order in the next couple
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: of months, right.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: So that's a full that's a full point by January.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: So this is still all pre Palell's exit in May
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: of next year when you look at just the BLS
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: data that's been coming in. This was lance for Roberts.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: He was kind of hitting on this and the fact
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: that we've seen this much incorrectness in overall overall job data,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: and you look at where Chair Palell is setting because
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, they clearly either I can't say that they
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: knew that this was that far inaccurate, but let's assume
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: that they did not, and they were acting accordingly, holding
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: rates for higher longer. Now that they have data that
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: repositions them, you don't think that they would try to
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: do a catch up. You still think that quarter is
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: the way to go.
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, I.
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: Don't think I think that the right answer depends on
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: the question that you ask.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: Right, if you ask me what is the right thing.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: To do for refinancing our debt and controlling our interest expense,
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: I would tell you we have to get the cost
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: of fund. We have to get the FED funds right
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: down so that we can reissues and have interest come down.
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: But if you ask me what is the best thing
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: to do for the solvency of a nation and to
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: preserve the US dollar as the global reserve currency for
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: the longest amount of time, I would tell you absolutely
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: not an easing monetary policy in any sense, because we've
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: already passed the point of the easing that we can
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: sustain without having massive other changes. We've already gotten to
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: that level and people just aren't aware of this yet.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: But this is going to be a massive issue for
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: whoever takes control of the FED for power leaves.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, so this gets into a lot of detail because
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: obviously there are some people that believe Trump is on
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a mission to try to devalue the dollar. This would
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: of course stabilize the potential of American supremacy, possibly going
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: to stable coins. I'll talk about that in a second.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: But also gold. We've seen gold hitting all time highs
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: and a lot of countries that have started to accelerate
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: their accumulation of gold. That's been going for quite some time.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: If you look at the inflation rate, I'm going all
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the way back to twenty sixteen on this chart, and
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: you know, we've been able to kind of hold it
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: until we hit you know what, and that's when everything
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: kind of fell apart, obviously because of the amount of
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: money being printed. Is there ever a possibility that we
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: can return to a two percent inflation as a baseline.
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: No, in my professional opinion, absolutely not. And you kind
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: of saw Pow talk about that at Jackson Holk.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick, because
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: this is obviously we're going to talk about what is
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: affecting Americans right now. You know, higher prices are definitely
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: hitting the American consumer. This is Howard Luckne. Let me
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: play this for you. Let's go to st one.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: Tariffs are bringing in forty billion a month, reducing our deficit.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: You know how much taxes we'd have to charge Americans?
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: Would you have that much money?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: You know, I do want to, so there you go.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: How much we'd have to charge Americans if we didn't
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: have that. But in reality, we've seen inflation now up
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: to two point nine, looks like it's going to be
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: on its way up. We could be paying for that anyway.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: What is your opinion right now on tariffs? Is this
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: good for the country. Not good for the country.
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think tariffs can actually be deflationary because
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: they can bring prices up to an extent that less
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: people have want to buy it and therefore lowers demand.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: And you can actually get deflation when you implement a
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: terror policy, and actually has happened before in the United States. However,
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: we have to have an administration that comes up with
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: unique solutions to try to save us from a debt collapse,
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: and the tariffs are one solution to let an expoint.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: It replaces a lot of tax base that we don't have,
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: but also, you know, possibly looking at a non true
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: free market capitalistic idea of a quasi public private partnership
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: between the government and private corporations. And with the advent
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: of AI, I think the AI corporation is the new country.
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: I think country' sporters become less and less relevant, and
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: basically when we get into the full arms interesting AI space,
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: it's going to be more about the corporations that run
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: it run the world.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, you think there's any possibility that tariffs or that
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Trump could try to do a hail Mary so that
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: he could continue to accelerate these tariffs and do like
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: a tariff rebate of some sort. You know, I was
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: tweeting on this. You look at just the amount of
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: money that has been collected right there. I mean, this
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: is astronomical shift in tariff revenue. And we have to
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: understand either they're going to pay down the debt or
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: try to associate that with some paydown, or they got
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: to figure out where to put this to work. Would
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: they do that? Do you feel like Trump might try
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: to do some little stemmy to I mean, there's.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: Definitely been some tweets about, you know, giving every American
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: x amount of the tariff money. And I'm sure that
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: the American public would love the tarrors after that, probably,
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: But the truth is, Paul, I mean, we were not
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: collecting anywhere near enough tax revenue to just maintain our
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: annual fiscal budget. I mean, to give us a rebate
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: on a TEARFF policy that brought in thirty billion in
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: a month, that sounds beautiful and great, except for we
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: are so underfunded by our own you know, tax revenue,
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: that we don't really have the money to rebate it.
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: It would just it would really be more of just
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: give me a giveaway, just to appease the American public.
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: You know, it's certainly not the most economically viable option.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so, Rebecca, when you look at that and you
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: think about the halves, the haves nots, because what we're
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: dealing now with is a situation where people are going
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: to have to get into assets. That's the only thing
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that's going to be somewhat you know, inflationary proof. The
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: dollar is be debasing clearly through what's happening right now
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: with our debt. You've got Goldman Sachs CEO. I'm going
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: to play a clip for you. I want to get
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: your opinion on this. Let's go to Satu.
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: You know it's so you sound so much smarter when
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: you bearish. Then I used to say what do you think?
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: And then I said what are you? How are you positioned?
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: And you know, you know I have all these bearerssed thoughts.
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: But I'm one hundred percent in equities personally right now
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: because I because we're about to lower interest rates into
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: into into a bull market.
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: Do you think it's an epic moment?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Is the trader that is Lloyd Blank find buying all
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: of the mag set Like when you say you're you're
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent of what does.
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: The portfolio look like.
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: I think it's a phenomenal moment. It might be. I'm
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: not a great technologist, and I've lived through waves of technology,
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: and I experience things that change the world, and I
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: experienced things that changed our fortunes because we overinvested in stuff.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Seven thirty seven percent of total US stock market right
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: now are tech stocks, So that share doubled in the
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: last five years. So would if you're you are advising clients,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So how are you telling him to play this? I mean,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: is it all in the tech sector? Are you looking
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: at midcaps? Are you trying to look at gold and
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: silver diversification into crypto? What's your play right here?
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great question.
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: So I've definitely been a gold bug since twenty twenty
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: because I could see with the global stimulus, and another
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: thing happened with gold that people don't realize. At the
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: end of the global financial crisis, the you know World
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: Bank and the monetary you know regulatory global machinations that
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: be basically came out with something called Basel three, which
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: basically moved gold from a Tier three to a Tier
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: one asset. And so you started seeing a lot of countries,
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: China obviously Turkey really buy up a lot of gold
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: and then actually call London and the kind of states
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: and say, we actually want you to deliver the actual gold, like,
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: no more trust, We're going to verify sin this's our gold.
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: So I think gold is a substantial play.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: So I do think that the way forward is we
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: believe in equities. We really believe that this is the
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: convergence of all things. What I mean by that is
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: this is the global sea change over where the US
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: dollar will no longer be a unipolar reserve asset, but
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: it will be multiplarity that we share with the East
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: and specifically the bricks block and everything that China has
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: done to really become the center of that world.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: I believe that's where we're headed.
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: There is going to be a currency shift over and
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: that is going to kind of occur as we get
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: into this debt spiral and the only option that we
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: have is crypto and the AI frontier robotics, quantum computing, obviously,
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: you know, all of the new technologies of the fourth
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: Industrial evolution that we'll have to merge together and really
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: kind of bring our growth higher than our losses on
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: the debt side.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm looking at this the treasury model. This is
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: why corporations are now looking at and nations are now
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: looking at holding crypto. I'll zoom in on this for you.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Mainly it's a hedge of inflation. Clearly, what we've seen
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: there diversify currency exposure. That's something that I think everybody's
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: The liquidity side of it and the digital seven those
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: are all very very attractive. You know, when you look
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: at how this plays out, sovereigns people are starting to
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: move in this direction. Do you think we'll see countries
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: and corporations. We've already started to see these digital asset
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: treasuries growing like crazy on Wall Street here recently micro Strategy.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: You've got bmn R with Tom Lee going nuts out
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: there with Ethereum Solana just hit the street. What's your
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: make of this? Do you think we'll have businesses starting
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to invest more into cryptocurrencies, gold, other hedges out there
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: other than the US dollar.
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: Yes, yes, because they are going to start to see
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: the inability. It's going to become more clear in the
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: next eighteen months, our inability to sustain our interest payments
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: with just our regular tax revenue. And again the Treasury
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: auctions that the Treasury has to run right now things
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: that they've never done before. And so yes, I do
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: think that corporations finance, you know CFOs are saying, look,
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: there's there's problems here in the US. We can see
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: the divergence and the move away from the US to
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: the East to the bricks block, the bricks nations. There's
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: forty plus percent of GDP is now represented by the
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: bricks nations. So that is problematic because we in the
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: United States don't have as much.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: We are less now than the bricks lock put together.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: And that's a concern.
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: And when you have you know that kind of problems
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: amidst geopolitical problems obviously with Russia and the US, India
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: and the US, now China certainly and the US, which
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: I would say it would be the biggest problem, you
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: will see corporations that are doing stuff globally and internationally
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: to get away from the risk of the US dollar.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, this is getting pretty crazy out here, because
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: how long do you think we are before we see
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: these kinds of major moves? Is it within a five
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: year cycle, especially in what we're dealing with right now,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: you think it's.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: That we see massive changes in thirty six months or less,
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: and I would expect massive changes even in the next
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: eighteen months.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: My last question to you is this, you said we're
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: going to see a lot of quick moves here. One
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: of the things that is happening is Nasdaq, of course
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: filed with the SEC. They're going to token I stocks.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: So this is going to a lot of investors trade
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: equities on chain. This is full shareholder, right, This could
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: change a lot within how we're going to see stocks
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: traded quickly? Yeah, and then absolutely yeah. So I'm going
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to play a clip of Adina Friedman, who is the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: CEO of Nasdaq, and she goes on on this let's
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: go south three.
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: So this morning we announced that we're going to be
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: bringing tokenization into our markets, so making sure that equities
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: are tokenized and traded on market in the markets.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: Twenty four by seven, three sixty five equities just let
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: it rip constantly.
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: We handle like three million messages a second. It's hugely scaled.
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: But then at the same time, you know, once that
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: trade occurs, there's a different process, and then the post
• 19:33
  Speaker 6: trade processes we know is an area where tokenization really.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Shines famous curve, which is like you get this early
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: font of insanity, and then there's the trough of disillusionment,
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: and then you grow through and it's it Does it
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: seem like crypto is actually a blockchain? It's just it's
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: finally real.
• 19:51
  Speaker 6: We finally have this convergence of regulatory of regulation between
• 19:55
  Speaker 6: the traditional markets the digital markets. How do we bring
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: it all together to fronkly advance markets.
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: How do you justify it?
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Like, hey, it's going to be worth the fact that
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: none of us are ever going to sleep again.
• 20:06
  Speaker 6: First of all, I've been I started it nowas like
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: in nineteen ninety three, and back in the nineties we
• 20:11
  Speaker 6: had a vision to go to twenty four to seven markets.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: The technology wasn't there to do it.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: All right, So do you think that will help, Rebecca?
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, are we going to see an age now
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: where tokenization of securities movement on chain and this whole
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: new evolution where we're going to be able to possibly
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: even use this and yield other instrument bearing platforms out
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: there for loans, et cetera on our assets. Is this
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: going to help at all with what our situation is?
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Well, I think it's great that the Electronic Exchange Index,
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: you know, group at Nazac is the one to move
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: with this first. And it's funny because interactive brokers, you know,
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: is one of their biggest things is oh, you know,
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: you can trade twenty four to seven and it's a big.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: Draw to people.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: It really truly is as long as there's regulatory framework
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: around it. And what regulatory framework are you dealing with?
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: You know, a token that's being issued under the US
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: regulatory framework or is this a company training in Hong
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Kong and it's a different regulatory framework and they don't
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: have the reserves.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: So it's just the tokenization has to be. People have
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: to buy into that, and as soon as they do,
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: and I don't know that they.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: Actually a lot of people, your user, your viewers, Yes,
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: but most average laid people aren't going into the wheats
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: and following out what's really happening the under the curtains.
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: With the blockchain.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Hey, well that's what we're here for, is we can
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: help them get there. And last question to you, and
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I have so many Actually I really want to go
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: down the gold idea with you, but I'm thinking eth
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: and bitcoin. I'm looking here at the two titans that
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: are ethereum and bitcoin right now that's Michael Sailor and
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: of course Tom Lee, both of which have pretty much
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: put this on main street in terms of now investors
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: getting exposure to this. If you had to play right
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: now and you have a lot of investors that come
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: to you for this, would you go bitcoin or ETH
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: or would you diversify?
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: Oh?
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: Oh, you know, obviously the og has been coin, but
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: Ethereum smart contract, you know, platform and their implementation on
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: the stable coin and how stable coins are leveraging the
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: eth universe. I think right now I'm going to have
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: to I know it's been maybe not as in favor
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: as all of the new hot ones, but I think
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna have to go with Eat on this because
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: of the development of the tokens.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah you're Tom Lee fan, Well, good for you. I
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: would probably have to join you on that, just in
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: the sense that there's a lot of upside there. A
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: bitcoin to me, is still a digital gold alternative out
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: there that will get into We'll bring that to you
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: guys for another question about what tokenized gold could look like. Rebecca,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: it has been great having you on. Thank you so
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: much for coming in today. We appreciate it.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Thank you for having me.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: You bet are you guys. If you are not part
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: of the Diamond Circle, make sure and get in right now.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: You can of course join that for absolutely free. It's
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: our own private group. I do our Baron Market Edge,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: which is my personal email out to you what's happening
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: in the market, how we're seeing things move, and also
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of the research that we do. It has
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: a lot more depth than what we just deliver here
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: on the show the best we can, so get into
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: that list down below. It does help. Also, if you're
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: not following me on X and do that. It's at
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch next time right here on the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron Show.