Latest / Crosstabs / Merry Election Eve

Transcript

Merry Election Eve · Crosstabs

• 0:00
  [music]
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: I put out a video yesterday when I was out door knocking and I saw
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: the Halloween stuff and I just told everybody, all right, put it up.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: Time for Christmas.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's November 1st.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Halloween's over.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Get out your Christmas stuff and put the Halloween stuff away.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: I had a few comments.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_02: I also do not have tolerance for it going beyond that.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_02: I feel like because Halloween, you've got all of October to do it.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_02: And so it really does need to come down.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: You know, November 1st was a Sunday.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: So unless you were really busy at church,
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_02: which I doubt this number of people who are at church all day and the people
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: who have all their Halloween stuff up,
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: those are typically not the same demographic, not the same groups.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: You know, if you are, I'm not necessarily judging you.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: I'm just I'm just stating what I believe to be true.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, you should probably get it taken down and you can get your Christmas stuff up.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and then like you just said,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: what Starbucks is coming out with what the holiday drinks win?
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: So November 17th, I think it is, is Red Cup Day.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: And we might put up the video on this one.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: I'm wearing a Christmas sweater.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_02: I have my red solo or my red Starbucks cup.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: That's Christmas.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_02: I have a Christmas T-shirt on underneath.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_02: In case anyone wonders where I stand on Christmas.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: I used to start listening in October.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: It's too early now so I start in November.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah you gotta wait till November because it will burn out on you
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: if you go too soon right but it does but November 1 you can that's always
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: the beginning and
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: if I was home Reagan I would be putting up Christmas lights yesterday and
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm too busy over here getting out the vote in the valley,
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: which has been a long,
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: long slog of 10-12 days I've been stuck over here in Salem areas.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: So it's been a long time, but I think we're one day away, right?
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: What are we calling this pod?
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Merry Christmas?
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Political Christmas Eve?
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Or what did you say?
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Merry Political Eve?
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: What are we calling it?
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: We've got a couple of options, political Christmas Eve or election Eve, however you want.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's Christmas for those of us who are interested in, enjoy following politics.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: Tomorrow is a great slash horrible day to be on Twitter because you're going
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_02: to see all kinds of information that's very incomplete.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_02: Early turnout data, early returns.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we start getting election results from the East Coast.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_02: They have some 6 p.m., Polling close times that show up for us at three.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_02: And so the great bad thing about being on the West Coast is we're going to know how
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_02: the night's going before it even gets to us.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_02: And then we get to find out what it looks like here.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_02: So that's both good and bad.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get a I think the main you know,
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking for the results coming out of Maine,
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: probably New Hampshire, because that's gonna be some of the earliest stuff.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: to see how Susan Collins did,
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Sununu and stuff, that's going to be kind of important for us.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: South Carolina is a big tell for us.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Like if,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: if Lindsey Graham's sister holds on in South Carolina,
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: it tells you people are showing up at the polls, Republicans.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, it's going to be interesting.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_02: Well, not just if she holds on,
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_02: if the polling's wrong and she wins by a lot,
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_02: like the last time when Lindsey Graham was supposed to be close and he won by a lot.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think there's lots of different possible outcomes.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_02: And there's options here.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_02: Which makes it fun, right?
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's what makes it our Christmas Eve is because there's just so many interesting storylines.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Nationally, there's way more interesting storylines in Oregon.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: We have like one in Oregon,
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: but nationally,
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: there's just tons of different, from Texas to New Hampshire to the Michigan stuff.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of interesting storylines out there nationally,
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: especially in the U.S. Senate where...
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Really, I think the balance seems to hang.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_02: Why do you think Oregon has almost nothing going on this year compared
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_02: to all these other states?
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, California's got the wealth tax ballot measure.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_02: All these different states have interesting stuff going on.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_02: We have, for the first time in years, zero.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: No statewide ballot measures on November, right?
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_02: And there was going to be one, but they moved it.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_02: The Democrats moved it to May.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_02: We've got no close congressional races that I'm aware of.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: I've seen no polling to suggest that any of them are close.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_02: We have one statewide race that is close.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_02: It's the governor's race.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_02: And then you've got a handful of legislative districts,
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_02: but those are, you know, it's pretty, it's a small number,
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_02: I think, that are close.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: So why is Oregon so uninteresting?
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, one,
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: most of the crazy ballot measures over the last few cycles that they've tried to put
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: on the ballot have failed horrendously in Oregon.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's, you know, like the sales tax one they put on last time two years ago, right?
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Was that measure 118 or whatever it was?
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Like that was really bad.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: Like they couldn't get the, you know, the anti-hunting one on.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't qualify for this thing.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: That would have been an interesting one.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: But I think it's really like,
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: because Oregon's fairly normal when it comes to ballot issue voting.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: We don't tend to go off the deep end too much with that stuff.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, look at the gas tax failures and things like that,
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: that tend to fail pretty dramatically.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I just think maybe they're going...
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: We might get the billionaire tax in California down the road,
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: but I just feel like we're not at a point yet where we have
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: to start creating new taxes because we're out of other taxes.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe we're not quite there yet.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Statewide, I just think that it's really...
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at it,
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: Kotex probably,
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: same with like Minnesota, I see,
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: like when blue states that are doing really,
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: really bad with blue governors or blue leadership,
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: that we tend to be a little bit more effective in those states.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: And then where you see ones where,
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: you know, the Democrats aren't crazy, we're not battling at all.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I just kind of think it's a little bit of that.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: So you make a great point.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: I'm looking at the list from 2024.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_02: We passed impeaching statewide elected officials,
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: which had to be negotiated as part of a return from the walkout.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_02: If I recall, that wasn't necessarily a guarantee to go to the ballot.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_02: And then Public Service Compensation Commission really didn't lose by that much,
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_02: 52 to 48, but it did lose.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_02: Ranked choice voting did lose by a lot, 58-42.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_02: The 118 that you were talking about, 77% voted no.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: And then 119, which passed 5743 and then had to be repealed to the legislature.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so yeah, maybe it is.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_02: You're right.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_02: The ballot issue question is more like response back.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_02: And you're right.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: We've normalized a ton.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_02: We did a lot of weird ballot measure stuff.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: That was kind of our nineties era.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_02: Early two thousands era.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: Now we're kind of out of that era.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_02: We're trying to be adults with the ballot measures a little bit more here.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um, So, you know, Oregon's growing up.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, hey,
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: before we get to our quick predictions,
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: just to cut,
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: I put these in the notes and I just want to make sure before we run out of time,
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: I just got to bring up a couple of these crazy,
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: I got to bring up a couple of these crazy races from around the state.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: Rainier Mayors race, Rainier Oregon race.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: So I got this from the Columbia County Spotlight.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: So this Michael Krieger guy,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: who's the city council president,
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: is doing fine,
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: but basically now he's resigned from the city council,
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: but he'll still run for mayor.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: But he lied about being a Purple Heart recipient.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: So stolen valor.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, no.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's kind of crazy.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: So...
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Can't do that.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: But he quit the council race, but is still running for mayor.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: But then he's going against Gary,
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm guessing it's Gary Twitchell,
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: who recently denied allegations of domestic violence.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, no.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: So in Rainier, I just thought that was looking around for some fun stuff.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I just like, wow, the battle of who's worse is happening in Rainier.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_02: A real lesser of two evils election there.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_02: Gosh, if I was a voter there, I'm going to have to take stolen valor over domestic abuse.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_02: But I don't like either option, really, to be perfectly honest.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'm glad you're going with Stolen Valor.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Good call.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_02: And I feel bad about it.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_02: Don't get me wrong.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: I would feel bad about it.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_02: And maybe recall the guy if he can find an alternative, but yikes.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I thought that was pretty bad.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: The other one that I think is there's two...
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Ballot measures that I really think that are interesting.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: One is the Eugene going for the, I called it the who is more liberal race.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: They're doing a climate fund sales tax.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if you saw this one in there.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: So they're basically going after...
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: All of the stuff you want to buy there in local stores and stuff like that is going
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: to get a sales tax put on it so they can stick it in a climate fund
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: with no accountability.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_02: Portland has this.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Portland has this.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: And it's basically a giant slush fund.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: And I think the police had a ballot measure that they were trying to get
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_02: that would have taken money from that fund to fund police and fire and stuff.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: And they got shot down on some...
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_02: Signature gathering issues, I guess.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_02: And so they didn't make the ballot in Portland,
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: but it was a bit of a mess because it seemed like maybe
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_02: the decision making wasn't fully based on regulations.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_02: It was a little political, but I'm not as connected to it.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_02: So it's hard to know what's what.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, so they want to copy Portland.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_02: Shocker.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_02: It'll be interesting to see how Eugene's feeling about that.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_02: I feel like an extra tax right now is kind of the wrong thing to put on the ballot,
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_02: regardless of where you're at.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I would guess Lane County Killed off the gas tax in the vote.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think they were the I don't think was there any blue county in that vote?
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think so.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: So supporters have raised $727,000,
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: Reagan, to get this thing passed on the ballot, which I found pretty interesting.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: so to double down on stupidity of,
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: like you just said,
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: passing tax measures in this economy, Legrand just said, hold my beer.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: They they decided the city decided to put a local measure on to go for a five cent gas tax.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_02: Of all things, Albany was going to do this.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: Albany was going to do this and they decided against it and they did a street fee,
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: which doesn't require voter approval.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: And I think LeGrand will quickly find out the hard way that isn't going to work.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Listen, the city streets in La Grande suck.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: I get it.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: I was just over there this summer.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: I know they're pretty bad.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: But kind of, was anybody giving them some advice?
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: Did you look at what happened
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: in May?
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm guessing in La Grande,
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: it failed probably 85-15 in May like it did everywhere else in the state.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: So I find that pretty interesting.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: This happens in a lot of these rural counties, like Lynn County where you have Albany.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: And Albany gets to be this little liberal bastion.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: The cities in these rural counties tend to be like...
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: I find that to be an interesting scenario.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: What's your take on that?
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: You have Albany, but literally Linn County is super
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: red.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: One of the things I think you have is, for instance...
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_02: All of the people when we've tried to recruit for city council,
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of the people that are really involved with the city,
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_02: they live outside city limits, like maybe just outside city limits.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think that there's there's a lot of that.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of the more conservative folks, the business owners in the county.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_02: They don't live in city limits, so they can't.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_02: They can't run for office.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_02: They don't get to vote in those elections.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's part of it.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_02: Some of it has been been candidate issues.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_02: We actually have a weird thing here
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_02: because Lynn County doesn't produce its own voters pamphlet in off years.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: People don't remember that it's a thing.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_02: And we have this problem where the Republican candidates either by choice or
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_02: by accident miss the voters pamphlet.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_02: And shocker,
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_02: they lose elections when they miss the main voters pamphlet in the general election.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_02: And because we don't Yeah.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: I think Albany is just a magnet for people who want lower cost living,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_02: but maybe still have, you know, Salem or Portland or Eugene politics, I guess.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_02: That's got to be part of it.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: that probably makes sense because you look at like places where I'm just thinking
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: of all the places that I've had wacky city council stuff like Baker City,
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: you know, Baker City, like that whole city is like gone.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: I think they flipped twice at this point from people quitting to resigning and stuff.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: But super rare.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: You're probably right, though,
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: with the city limits thing,
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: because Vicky and I live just outside the city limits of Prineville.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: You live just outside the city limits, right?
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, a lot of people do.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: Bosar Davis down there, she's just outside the city limits.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: That is interesting.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to touch on two commissioner races.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's all I left on my notes, I thought.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: The Clackamas County Commissioner races are interesting because you have a D versus
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: an R,
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: and then you have an R versus a farther right R,
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: which I find kind of an interesting scenario.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: What do you make of those two races?
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_02: I think it'll be really interesting to see how many Republicans.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: So Savas did really well because there was a Democrat who got 20 something percent of the vote.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_02: Somehow Mark Scholl got a little bit more than that and he made the runoff and
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_02: then Savas was in the 40s.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_02: Savas should pick up because he's more of an establishment Republican.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_02: He should pick up all the Democrat votes.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_02: So this should be a romp.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_02: So it would be interesting to me if Scholl gets close, if a bunch of the Republicans defect.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_02: And they move towards Scholl,
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_02: who's extremely conservative,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_02: is not raising a ton of money,
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_02: isn't spending a ton of money,
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_02: is using that as a talking point,
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_02: basically,
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_02: that he's not,
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_02: but has been basically lost his last commission race because he was very,
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_02: very controversial in saying things, had to apologize for things that he said.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_02: I would be shocked if it was close.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_02: I think Savas is likely because he'll hold some Republicans and then win.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: I would imagine a lot of the independents and almost all the Democrats
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_02: who would rather see a more reasonable Republican.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: You would think.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_02: And then Diana Helm, I guess I haven't looked at her race as much.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_02: I sort of saw her as more of like a non-affiliated, but maybe leaning more Republican.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_02: But she has support from Ben West and Martha Schrader.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_02: So Ben West, a Republican and Schrader, a Democrat, who Schrader is on a real kick right now.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_02: I noticed she's endorsed just a ton of Republicans.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_02: Including, I think, Patty Adair for Congress and maybe Drazen for governor.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_02: So anyway,
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_02: she's a Democrat,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: but she's putting her country over party like Haley Stevens is and saying,
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_02: hey, Democrats are good, but we have some bad ones and we need to get rid of them.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's super interesting to see Schrader endorsing a bunch of Republicans.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: I like the Haley Stevens move.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: That was pretty cool.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: But I just can't get over the way she says Michiganders.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: Like it just drives me crazy when she says that.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: I hate the term Michiganders.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not a Michigan person.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if those people really like that.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: But like Oregonians is kind of an easy thing to say.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: But Michiganders just sounds so Midwestern.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: And when she says it, I'm just like, oh, nails on a chalkboard to me.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, New Hampshire's like Granite Staters or something like that.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_02: I went through all of these with some friends the other day because I was visiting
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_02: in Idaho and he's like, what do you call yourselves Oregonians?
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_02: That doesn't sound right.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_02: And we went through all of them.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_02: There's some weird ones.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_02: There's some that changed, like Indiana changed theirs officially to Hoosiers not that long ago.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_02: And I think they were Indianers before or something like that.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_02: So you should go look up the nomenclature for residents of states.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_02: The list is super entertaining.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_02: And Wikipedia has it where it shows you what some of the ones they used to use.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_02: And then some of them that are still in use, but they're not official.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_02: Some of them are kind of like, they seem a little derogatory too.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_02: I'm trying to remember, but it's an interesting list to go through.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_02: It's entertaining stuff.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm totally have to do that.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't done that before.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: That should be...
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_02: One more thing, and we're going to put the link to this in, but there's a prediction contest.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not in charge of it, but I do.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to enter into it, encourage people to enter in and predict.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_02: It's just for fun.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_02: There's no official prize except for bragging rights,
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_02: but we'll put the link in, predict all the different election results.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_02: It includes U.S., Senate and other U.S. federal races.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_02: And then separately,
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_02: we'll calculate all the Oregon races, which includes federal, state, and some local.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_02: So people may have to do some Googling and spend some time on Orstar.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_02: But make sure you enter the prediction contest that we'll put in the link in the show notes.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, for sure.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: I actually went and did it, which was kind of fun.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think they – and I always liked the tiebreaker – Which is,
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: at the end is like their tiebreaker is what's the percentage Brett Smith will get in
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: the governor's race.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: I thought that was a pretty good tiebreaker.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's...
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_02: A good one.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that'll be,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not going to disclose my number because it's extremely scientific and I put
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of work into it.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_02: No, I didn't.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_02: I think I'm just going to guess.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_02: But maybe I'll ask Claude.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_02: We'll see what my French subordinate thinks.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: You can't use AI to fill this out.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's just not fair.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: Not fair because there was a couple of them like they had the toss up by the on some
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: of the congressional races and there was more than a couple I had to go look up
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: because I was like,
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_02: who's running in Florida 14?
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_02: I have no idea.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: Florida 14.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, I thought those were kind of interesting.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: And then I just clicked them all, Reagan.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: I was like, you know, one point per correct answer.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: I just figured I'd click them all.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, there you go.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: Try to get as many points as I can.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking of that,
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: the last commissioner race that I just think is somewhat entertaining is
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: the Multnomah County commissioner race because it's
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: a little like Singleton versus Edwards on who can be more left.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think they both are pretty horrible if you ask me as far as county officers go.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_02: What's odd is Brim Edwards has been getting some heat lately
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_02: because apparently there's some rumor going around that she said some things
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_02: in executive session that were unkind to trans kids, I guess.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_02: Basically,
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_02: the allegation is she said something like maybe we shouldn't allow them
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_02: to participate in sports,
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_02: certain sports, so that we can continue to get federal funding.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_02: I know, crazy.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_02: Anyway, Apparently that's offensive.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_02: She lost her basic rights endorsement from that.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_02: And then she also lost a union endorsement,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_02: which they said may have been based on that, but they didn't necessarily confirm it.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_02: So there's this last minute switching around.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_02: And it'll be interesting to see if that impacts the race.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_02: Julia Brim Edwards typically demolishes her opponents because she's a unifier
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_02: on both the social issue lefties and the sort of normal corporate issues.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_02: Lefties because she came from, I think she came from Nike.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_02: So she typically destroys.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_02: So it'd be interesting to see this kind of one of her tougher races, it looks like now.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_02: And the unions have sort of decided they're defecting and some of
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_02: the social issue folks are defecting.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_02: Despite Julia Brim Edwards,
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_02: people may not remember this,
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_02: but like early 2000s,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_02: she was one of the ones that drove Nike to quote unquote be more inclusive.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_02: Excuse me.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I think also to like,
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: this is my theory on Multnomah County and even Portland to some extent
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: until really this DSA kind of movement came in,
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: they're really not for throwing out incumbents.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: So, and the DSA thing is a little bit more of a new phenomenon,
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: but I think that's a little bit more like Washington County,
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: but I think that, um,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think that Multnomah County,
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: if you really look at it over the years,
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_00: they don't really just toss,
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: at least that's my theory, they don't really toss a lot of incumbents out.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: They're not primary bomb throwers and throw people out.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: They tend to love the people that are in there, despite their faults.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: They'll elect Sam Adams.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: And stuff in these places and they'll keep electing them.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think Julie Brim Edwards still wins,
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: but I think it's a little closer than she would like.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_02: We'll see.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think Multnomah, I mean,
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_02: it's not quite yet on the county level,
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_02: the hotbed of DSA that the council races in Portland are or Hillsborough
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_02: and Beaverton and Washington County races are.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_02: And you'll see how successful DSA is in some of these nonpartisan races
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_02: where two Democrats made it and it's a DSA versus kind of more of a traditional,
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know what we call them,
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_02: corporate Democrats is one of the derogatory terms they use.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll see.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we'll get to see.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_02: All I can say is welcome to the Democrat Tea Party.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_02: So the Republicans had the Tea Party in 2010.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_02: And while it did make our party more conservative,
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_02: it often would give us candidates who were not good general election candidates.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_02: And in a lot of ways, we have not recovered from the Tea Party in the sense that it built up.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_02: the conservatives and
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_02: while it gave us some great candidates also gave us some really lousy candidates.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_02: And that's true on the establishment.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we've got some lousy establishment candidates, too.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not I'm not acting like those guys are all great and amazing,
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_02: but it's definitely cost us some some primaries have cost us some races.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_02: And I'm finally glad to see Democrats getting on board.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_02: With losing by promoting bad candidates.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, we'll see how it goes.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we have our fair share.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: And we even have our fair share of bad candidates that made it through.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think Ken Paxton is a bad candidate for Texas.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: But I think that those...
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: So we have a few,
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: not as many as we normally get,
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_00: but we definitely have a few that's making it a little harder for us in the Senate.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: And apparently if we had somebody in Alaska that was a harder name to spell,
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: that might be better for us too.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: I have
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_02: no way of knowing.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: I hear there's another Dan Rayfield in Oregon,
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: so I'm talking to this guy now about running for attorney general.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_02: That's really funny.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_02: What if they got the Pacific Green Line, but it's not a quote-unquote dual endorsement.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's on a different line.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_02: That could be a problem.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: That could be a problem.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_02: I think as the attorney general,
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_02: the chief lawyer of the state of Oregon is probably going to lawyer up on that one
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_02: and argue it's not nice.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: If your name is Tobias Reed, give me a call.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, we had two Christines run for governor, but they sorted it out.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: One of them's Christine and one of them's Tina.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_02: They got it covered.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_02: They figured it out.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, there's ways.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want any recording online that I may have engaged in any of those tactics,
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_02: so I'm just going to deny it all right
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_01: now.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_02: We can win on the merits, Bryan,
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_02: or at least we can win after Democrats drive a bunch of people out of the state
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: and change their registration.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_02: Eventually.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_02: One of the two is going to happen.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_02: We're either going to get better at winning or they're going to drive everybody out.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_00: I hope, Reagan.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: But if they drive us all out, then they're left to themselves.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_00: And then I guess they'll all be DSA at some point.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_02: Well, my goal is just to be more stubborn, Bryan.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_02: As I slowly give away more and more of my money to the state of Oregon through taxes
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_02: of different kinds, try to survive.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, at least for you, you're just giving back a share of what you make.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly right.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_02: It's all taxpayer money.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_02: My salary, it's good.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_02: I always tell people,
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not probably the best user of taxpayer dollars.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_02: I try to do my best.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_02: But I don't use it to make your life worse.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_02: At best, I use it to accomplish nothing.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_02: And even sometimes I can make your life a smidgen better if you're a constituent
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_02: from House District 59.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think you better end that there.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_00: We might not have to delete this part too.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we might want to scrub all of this instead of having it live forever on the internet.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_02: It's the curse of having a podcast.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_02: That's the curse of in the past when I'm a blogger.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_02: There's so much I've written at Catalyst.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_02: I have no idea what's there.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if you Google us, there's plenty of content.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: There's no doubt.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_02: There's two options, Bryan.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_02: There's what I think will happen and there's what I want to have happen.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_02: And that's what I struggle with.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_02: What I think,
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_02: I'm sort of on the think will happen,
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's a decent chance that Republicans will win a couple of
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_02: the Senate seats and make it like,
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going Democrats 51,
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans 49 in the U.S. Senate, and then Fetterman goes, nah, I'm a Republican.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, and then it's 50 50.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_02: I think that would be fun.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_02: And so maybe some some deep red states and we pick up Michigan or something like that.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_02: It's hard to see those happening at the same time, though.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_02: So that's where I go back and forth.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_02: We're definitely losing the House.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_02: If we don't,
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_02: it's a bit if we don't lose the House,
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_02: it's a massive polling error and Republicans will be super happy.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_02: And then in terms of the different governorships,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_02: it seems like we're really struggling in swing states and we're doing great
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_02: in blue states.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_02: So I don't really know what to make of that either.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_02: But, you know, and then for Oregon, I would say I made my prediction last time on the numbers.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_02: 39, 21, 19, 11.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_02: That's more.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_02: It just seems like.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_02: In the midterm years with Republican presidents, we seem to struggle.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm just kind of assuming we're going to struggle.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_02: But if we do better than that, great.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_02: And I could see it happening very easily.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_02: What do you think?
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: I hope – interesting prediction on the Senate because that would be very important
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_00: for – if we lose the Senate and Fetterman is the switch that gets us back to 50,
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_00: that's very important because that keeps us in the majority.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_02: So that would be – He can't run again as a Democrat,
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_02: so I don't know what other alternative he has.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_02: He's either not running again or he's running as an independent,
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_02: which won't work because Republicans will probably still – They may not run
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_02: a candidate.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_02: He's very popular in the Republican Party.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_02: So I think it's an easy thing for him to do is just switch to become Republican
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_02: and be the kingmaker and get himself a nice gavel or something.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: Especially if some of the El Syed wins or something like that or like I like
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: to call him Allah Akbar.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_00: If he wins Michigan and stuff,
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think that pisses Fetterman off because he's a staunch supporter of Israel.
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: So I think you're right.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_00: You could see something that swings that way.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: I actually think we're going to surprise.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think Republicans are going to surprise people more so than we think in the U.S. Senate races.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: I think we actually win Michigan.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: I think that the black vote does not believe in the Islam kind of scenario.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think they like that.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's going to be rejected a little bit up there.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that Michigan vote is,
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: you know, there's a decent number of African-Americans up there in Michigan.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think they voted for Trump and I think they kind of stay.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_00: You know, so I think we actually shock Trump.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: But I do think we lose somewhere where we think we were going to win.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_00: And my fear is that's probably Texas.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_00: Which would kind of suck.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: But I think we'll pick up a spot where we win.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_00: I think we still end up 51-49.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm reversing you.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: But it should be interesting there.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely lose Congress.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know how much.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: I don't follow enough of the map to really have an idea.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_00: But I bet it's a little slimmer than the Ds wanted.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because we did pick up some seats by redistricting.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm hoping those will turn into seats for us.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: And then we win nothing.
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_00: In Oregon, we win nothing.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think if we do well, I think Mannix might...
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: Barely hold on in the House.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we go 38-22 in the House.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: And I think in the Senate, I think my gut tells me that it's 1911, but man, Reagan, I'm...
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm glad doing the get out the vote effort here that we've been doing statewide
• 32:06
  SPEAKER_00: and there's a lot of energy in Tracy Kramer's district.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we had a lot of people out this last weekend doing doors and
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: then Kevin Mannix's district too.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_00: There was a lot of energy there with ballot harvesting and it's actually been effective.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_00: So I feel like...
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't seen the numbers yet for Monday,
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_00: but I think Tracy's seat has an opportunity to win that Senate seat.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm afraid the people in Southern Oregon are just going to be
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_00: a little too anti-Trump and a little too lazy to actually vote,
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_00: which tends to be the case down in Southern Oregon.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_02: We've got the best possible candidates in some of the worst year,
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_02: and you want to believe in the candidates overcoming the year,
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_02: but oftentimes the year overcomes the candidates, and that's where I'm at.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think at the end of the day, they've probably done about all that they can do.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you always,
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_02: Monday morning quarterback,
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_02: oh, I should have gone to this, or should have knocked this, and whatever.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's too late for that,
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_02: but You couldn't have gotten better candidates in these races, I think.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_02: Hard to find better candidates.
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_00: I agree,
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_00: and I think those areas where,
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: when we had Jake on,
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_00: I really thought, like,
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: the Courtney Bang seat might be a little bit closer,
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_00: but he really made a really good point with Democrats.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: It's like, that's why I think Columbia County stays red.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's like, and you made this point with, like, you know, swing states.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: Like, they focus more on taxes and the basics.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: Like, they're swinging to the left.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_00: But the culturally...
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_00: Significant states,
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_00: or I even think in Oregon,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_00: the culturally swung counties like Columbia County that is culturally right
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_00: of center.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_00: Lenn County, I would say, is one of those as well.
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_00: I just think that...
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: Those areas are going to stay red.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think those are as hard to lose as maybe some other ones.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_00: I think we end up back at 1812.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's a little bit of my hope and a little bit of a prediction,
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_00: but I think that's 1812 I'd take in the Senate at this point if you were to give me
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_00: a vote.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we end up losing one in the House and getting no pickups.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_00: But I think it's going to be a lot closer in Oregon
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_00: than I think people are predicting, especially our Democrat friends.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_00: With the get out the vote effort, there's been a couple things that have really surprised me.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I thank all the...
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: The number of volunteers and regional managers and people that we've had on this,
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_00: we've put in a lot of hours knocking doors and we should be well north
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_00: of 10,000 doors by the time it's said and done.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's a really good effort that we put together in these swing districts
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_00: and a swing opportunity there.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_00: The members who actually donated to the effort was great.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody else, the caucus leaders and Walden's team didn't give us any money.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_00: We got everything raised on our own.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_00: And we put it all together through volunteers,
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_00: 100 individual donors gave to us and,
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know, and thousands of man hours going into it.
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_00: So it's been a good effort,
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_00: but I think it was a bummer yesterday in the last two days when I was up around
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: in different areas,
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: Clackamas, Marion County did not see the other members like actually out.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_00: I saw some there like Dan Farrington was walking.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_00: Claire Lynn was even up here walking,
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: like I saw, and I think she was going to North Coast next and stuff.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_00: So there were some members out.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to, you know...
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_00: Throw everybody onto the bus.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, when I see the Democrats like there, I'll see.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_00: I remember when Mark Meek in 22,
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_00: like every single Senate Democrat was in that district door knocking for him.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I just,
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: and I just I'm not really seeing as much of a manifest of that on our side.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that's been a little bit of a bummer.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: Like, why wouldn't there be everybody,
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_00: every caucus member in the Republican side walking for Kevin Mannix to reclaim
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_00: that seat?
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_00: Or for Scott Hagee up there in 52.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's a little bit of a bummer.
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_00: And if we lose, I think there's enough blame going around for a lot of people on that one.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_00: So I just think that was – it's the last chance you have to make the pitch to
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_00: a voter at the door.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_00: And I had a decent number of pitches yesterday – Um,
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_00: at the door for people to get them to vote for Drazen and get them to vote
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: for other Republicans in Clackamas County.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, and I,
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_00: that they were good conversations with people and there were people
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_00: that hadn't voted yet.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I think, I think that's important and it's a difference maker.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_00: And if you multiply me by 580 some people or whatever,
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_00: then you know what, we might actually get it done.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to hear any complaining from people who didn't knock,
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_02: members who didn't give,
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_02: members who didn't get on the phones about how much it sucks to be in the minority.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, right?
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_02: Complain all you want,
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_02: but at the end of the day,
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_02: if you don't get involved and put in the work,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_02: then you don't get to complain, I think.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of feel that way, doesn't it?
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_02: Show me the receipts that allow you to complain before you complain.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_02: That could be my new policy.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: I like that.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good podcast title someday.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: Show me the receipts.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we'll do that on the...
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_02: Show me the receipts.
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we can do it on the podcast.
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, exactly.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_02: On the post-selection.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_02: Make sure you get those ballots turned in by Tuesday at 8 p.m.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_02: It may be too late to mail.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_02: Depends on what you believe about the Postal Service.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_02: I recommend a Dropbox.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_02: Always do.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_02: I don't like putting my ballot in the mail.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_02: It's nothing against the Postal Service.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_02: I just like putting it in the Dropbox.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_02: I always drive to the Lynn.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_02: It's also not the closest drop-off.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_02: I always go to the Lynn County Courthouse, though.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_02: Drop it off.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_02: That's no longer the elections office, but I still like that drop off.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_02: So I just old habits.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_02: They die hard.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't it feel like you're voting by by in person when you go to the courthouse
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: and you drop it off there?
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: I feel a little better about that, too.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's why I do it, too.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of interesting.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: I agree, Reagan.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be out today walking for Kevin Mannix and Tracy Kramer.
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, if you're listening to the pod, don't don't yell at me when you're on there.
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'll try to put it out this morning.
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_02: I'll make some get out the vote calls for Jake Elroy remotely from my computer.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_02: There
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_00: you go.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_00: Go make it happen.
• 38:48
  [music]