Latest / Financial Survival Network / Trump GPT Takes the Fed - Parag Amin #6299

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Trump GPT Takes the Fed - Parag Amin #6299 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: There's almost no doubt that Pal's going to be out
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: when his time is up, and he's realistically not going
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: to be reappointed. President Trump has really made no secret
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: about that, and I think President Trump would fire him
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: if he could, but he can't. So this is why
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: he's doing what he believes is the next best thing
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and looking at shadow fed chairs.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where
• 0:23
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• 0:27
  Speaker 2: to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
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• 0:36
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• 0:40
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• 0:47
  Speaker 3: And welcome.
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: I'm your host Carrie Lutz.
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: And well, we know there's a big stink that's been
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: going on between the President and chair Jerome Powell. Has
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: he outlived his usefulness? Is he on his way out?
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: What's the real story here? Well, Paragh el Amin is
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: with us now an attorney and well you can find
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: him at lawpla dot com.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Parukh great to have you on the show.
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: So you're an attorney, but obviously interested in economics and
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: economic policy here. What's your take on what's going on
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: with the FED?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: That's right, Kerrie, and I've got a background in finance.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, in terms of what's going on in the FED.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: This is something we've seen which is classic President Trump style,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: which is he's running the government more like Trump organization
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: than as the president. And what I mean by that
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: is President Trump is very used to having a lot
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: of control over his organization and decision making ability, and
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I think we've seen time and time again where he
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: gets frustrated when other people aren't doing what he wants
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: them to do. And that's what we're seeing here with
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Jerome Powell and President Trump hinting at the fact that
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: he may end up appointing a shadow FED chair, which
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: is unprecedented, We've never seen anything like that before, but
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: all because he doesn't really like the fact that Jerome
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Powell is continuing to allow higher interest rates than President
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Trump would like.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: So I have a theory that this is the first
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: AI driven administration in history. All the policies coming down,
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: whether it's immigration, legal policies, economic, it's all.
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Driven by AI.
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: And if in fact it is what do you think
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: the AI is pointing to in terms of monetary policy.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Well, that's an interesting theory. I haven't heard that before, Carrie.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: So to clarify what you're saying and asking, are you
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: saying that you believe that the Trump administration is using
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: literally AI to help come up with its policies.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: Oh, there's no question in my mind.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: I call it Trump GPT, and having used AI pretty
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: extensively for the past three years, I can just pick
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: up the patterns and such like. For instance, you know
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: as an attorney that to drift an executive order, it's
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: not just the thing where you just write it out.
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: A lot of research, memorandums have to be done. Every
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: law that's on the books has to be run through
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: to make sure that you're not conflicting with the law,
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: constitutional aspects, all these things, and the fact that he
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: had so many of them literally ready the moment he
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: took his hand off the Bible and was sworn in,
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: he was signing executive orders. And there's two reasons why
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: I know that this is AI driven. Number one is
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: the secrecy he knew about this, which means there's a
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: very small core group that's responsible for this and to
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: have a law firm do it could take months, years,
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: dozens of.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: Lawyers running around, running up hours.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: Not to say that lawyers haven't reviewed it, but that
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the core of it probably is AI generated. And then
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: just pattern recognition where I can see AI rearing its head,
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: where just certain certain things that happen.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: It's just a pattern.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: So it's my theory and nobody has proven.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: Me wrong yet. But if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Yeah.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: And so you think that President Trump's idea of maybe
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: a shadow fed chair came from AI.
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: Uh, very possible, or it might have come from somebody else,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: and then run through the AI to see if it
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: could in fact be accomplished, and you know it'll run
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: itself out. I know for sure for legal strategy, it's happening.
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: I can see it there. We've never seen cases go
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: to the Supreme Court. He's only been in power five
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: months and yet three or four cases have already hit
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: the Supreme Court and been decided.
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: And that's just something. As a follower, as an.
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: Attorney, recovering attorney, I've never seen anything like where Supreme
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: Court taking cases on an emergency basis the way they have.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: That's right, And look part of this is traditional Trump fashion.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: President Trump likes to move quickly and he makes a
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: lot of moves at any given time, so a lot
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: of his presidency has a lot of unprecedented moves, including
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the potential appointment of a shadow FED chair before Jerome
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Powell's appointment is up May in May twenty twenty six.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: But look, the reality is that President Trumps hasn't made
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: it a secret that he is frustrated at your own
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Powell being slow to lower the interest rates. And look,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind is the Fed has a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: tough job to balance between economic growth as well as inflation.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: And as a core component of this employment because the
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: reverse to the challenge is that low interest rates will
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: spur economic growth, which is good. But what happens with
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: economic growth is most of the time it will also
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: lead to inflation. And that's one of the core pieces
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: of the mandate of the Fed is to also control inflation.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: So many times it becomes very difficult between finding the
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: balance of lower interest rates to spur economic growth, which
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: is something that President Trump has made no secret about
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the fact that he's an avid supporter of and I
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: think he believes that he wants it to be a
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: core part of his legacy. So it's balancing that while
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: still also tempering inflation. And so President Trump seems to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: make a lot of decisions from the gut, as he
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: has as a businessman, and Jerome Powell is much more
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: by the books, by the data, and he's very cautious
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: about the moves he makes. And I think that's the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: dichotomy and the just the position that we're seeing between
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: these two people.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, for sure, he doesn't have an easy job
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: Jerome Powell, for sure. And the inflation, yes, definitely a factor. Well,
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: what do you think of DOGE though, as far as
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: bringing down the federal deficit and perhaps bringing that under control.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Well, I would look to the head of DOGE, which
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: was once Elon Musk and him no longer being involved
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: in DOGE and then simultaneously now criticizing President Trump's latest bill,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: and he's criticized both sides.
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: And so this is.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Why Elon Musk has said that he wants to form
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a third party is because the challenge I think Elon
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Musk is faced and seen firsthand from being involved INDULGE
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: is it's seemingly impossible with the way government is structured
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: to really get the balance or the debt in control
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: and balance because of the way the government spends money
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: in both sides vying for control, in favoritism amongst their lobbyists.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: And that's the big challenge here, is that everybody is
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: looking to short term rather than looking at what's best
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: for the long term future of America.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, interest rates, well, they might be
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: higher than zero percent where they were a couple of
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: years ago, are probably right around where they should be
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: on a normalized basis prior to the Great Financial Crisis
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: which set off all these negative interest rates. You don't
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: really want negative interest rates, negative real interest rates. It's
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: unhealthy for the economy. And somebody's got to buy these treasuries, right.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: And so what a lot of people don't realize is
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: there's the balance between the monetary policy, the buying and
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: selling of bonds to control the money supply in the economy,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: as well as fiscal policy in terms of how a
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: government is spending money. And ideally those really should be
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: balanced against each other, but typically many times, unfortunately they
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: kind of go their separate ways and each side is
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: kind of doing what they believe is best without necessarily
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: looking at what's best for America as a whole, because look, ultimately,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: monetary policy and fiscal policy are each wings to a bird,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: and you need both for the economy to be able
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: to soar. And it is interesting that unfortunately the US government,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: whether it's under Democratic party rule or Republican Party rule,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: is still spending far more than it should be and
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: not really accounting for how it's going to reduce the debt,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: because some amount of debt is good, but an excessive
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: amount of debt is really really bad.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and all lower interest rates do is increased debt.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: As we know, you know, there's some interesting cases I
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: think that we'll be coming up this term. First and
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: foremost is the Impoundment Control Act of nineteen seventy four,
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: which basically said that if Congress allocates the money, if
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: they say it's getting spent, then it's getting spent, no
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: matter how absurd the program might be. And that really
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: wasn't the way that the Constitution was designed. Presidents had
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: impoundment authority up until you know, fifty years ago. And
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: now he wants it back, and I believe he's going
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: to get it. I believe the case is coming and
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: it's just it'll probably come up this term in one
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: way or another.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: That's right carried it. Unfortunately, this use it or lose
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: it type financing with Congress and the allocation of funds
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: is something we typically see throughout the government, and the
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: challenge is balancing the two. For example, I worked for
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: a summer in private consulting where the consulting company did
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: consulting for veterans' affairs, which I'm an avid believer in
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: that we should be taking care of our veterans, caring
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: for war years. And unfortunately, regardless of which department you're in,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: there is a competitive eating process, and part of it,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: regardless of which agency it is, they do look at
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: the prior year's budget and whether it was fully allocated,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: and many times if it wasn't, what will happen is
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the government will take back that money and reallocate it.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: So it does create this perverse incentive to spend spend
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: because the challenge and the risk is, for example, let's
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: say you don't necessarily need all those funds this year, Well,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: if you don't use them, what might happen is if
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you need them the following year, they might not be
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: available for distribution. And that's the biggest challenge here is
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that therefore, unfortunately, it fuels this never ending spending cycle,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: which with each agency trying to max out their budgets
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: year after year.
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and for an example of the absurd things they
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: could do, put this in an article. If Congress decides
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: that they're going to have a tomb for the faceless bureaucrat,
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: all right, like we have the tumb of the unknown soldiers,
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: so we have one with a tumb for the faceless bureaucrat,
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: and they're going to fund it. They're going to have
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: a bond are running twenty four to seven, and the
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: bonfire will be fed with freshly printed one hundred dollars
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: bills from the Federal Reserve. All the president can do
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: under the current state of the law is like the match.
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: He really has no ability to actually rein in this
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: insane spending. And I mean, this is like absurd. You know,
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: they're I don't think they're going to do it, but
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't put it past them because we've seen from
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: Doge the types of insane things they're spending money on.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Well, President Trump is in sort of a unique and
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: special situation, which is where he's the president of the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Republican Party, as well as having the Republican Party control
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: both the Senate and the House. So in terms of
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the best chances of being able to get some sort
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: of cooperation from the two portions and segments of the
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: US Congress, both the Senate and the House of Representatives,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: President Trump has a unique advantage in being able to
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: do that. And we've still seen the dysfunction that goes
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: on between the executive branch and the legislative branch, including
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: in terms of how policies are supposed to be put
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: forth and how spending is supposed to occur, including with
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: this latest spending bill. With President Trump.
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so, and still getting the Congress to do things,
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: it's like herding cats.
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: And you know part of this is I've joked with
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: friends that if members of the government were treated the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: same way as we are in the private sector, which
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: is you're going to get paid and get raises for
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: your results, and if you don't do your job, you're
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: going to get fired, I think we'd have a lot
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: less dysfunction on Capitol Hill and in Washington, DC.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: And that's probably another case that's coming up in this
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: term that we don't know about yet, but basically the
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: ability to reschedule all these employees under Section F and
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: then get rid of them as needed. You know, the
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: government is seriously out of step with technology, with modern
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: economics and the world for that matter, and he's trying
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: to bring the government up to date here and as expected,
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: getting resistance from all parties.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: That's right. Unfortunately, what we're saying is the effects of complacency. Unfortunately,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: many government employees and parts of government have become very
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: complacent with America's place in the world economy. But the
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: reality is they've been gifted that privilege by the people
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: before them who did all the work to make America
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: the great country that it is. And unfortunately, we have
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of government employees who don't necessarily make it
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: their job to look at the advancement of the United States,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: including things like AI, which is going to be a
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: major part of the future, and understanding it. I mean,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: we've seen this Carrie with some of the hearings even
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: relating to for example, Facebook or social media, where the
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: questions from the various senators re laughable in terms of
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the types of questions they were asking shown showed a fundamental,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: in complete misunderstanding as to how technology works, how social
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: media platforms work, and what they're able to do. And
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: it's not just the social media hearings. Anytime we have
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: a hearing relating to technology, we see this over and
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: over again, where we have congress people, government employees who
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: don't understand fundamentally most parts of the technology, if any
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: part of the technology.
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well they think they still think email and texting
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: are major innovations, and we're way past that now.
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: But the AI.
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: Doge forget about the optics of musk leaving and all that.
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: That is a permanent fixture now of the government, and
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: I think we're going to see it spread to state
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: and local governments as well, and internationally to the UN
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: and countries around the world, because every country is basically
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: the way they spend is modeled after the US to
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: some extent. They're all running deficits, They've all over promised
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: and at some point they're going to have to underdeliver
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: and there's really no way out. The only thing that
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: can kind of contain this is AI.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Well, that's right, and unfortunately, many times government is a
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: repeated series of under delivery, and unfortunately, what happens is
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: politicians then just point the fingers at each other and
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: don't take full responsibility for what happened or try to
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: fix it, so unfortunately becomes a blame game. So the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: reality is, if US households ran their budgets the way
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: the US government is currently running their budgets, regardless of
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: whether it's Republican or Democrat controlled, the reality is you
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: cannot run a household even if you drop a bunch
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: of the numbers and reduce them to ones that we
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: could all make sense of. For example, if we've got
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: a median household income of let's say sixty thousand dollars
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: and allocating those funds between groceries, insurance taxes, food, those
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: various things, you would be running an astronomical deficit to
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: the point where you'd never be able to pay it off.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: And unfortunately, because the numbers with the US deficit and
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the budget are so large, it makes it very difficult
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: to really understand that. But I saw this one calculation
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: where if you look at those numbers and simply drop
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: off a bunch of the zeros, the vast majority of
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: those zeros, and make it into numbers that somebody can
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: actually understand and they're used to seeing. You'll see very
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: quickly how problematic this is in terms of actually being
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: able to pay it off.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I couldn't agree with you more. So, what do
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: you think will be the net outcome? You think Powell
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: is out?
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Well, I think that there's almost no doubt that Palell's
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: going to be out when his time is up, and
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: he's realistically not going to be reappointed. President Trump has
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: really made no secret about that, and I think President
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Trump would fire him if he could, but he can't.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: So this is why he's doing what he believes is
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: the next best thing and looking at shadow fed chairs
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: to be able to say, here's my next fedchair pick.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: All right, well we're gonna sit back, wait and see
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: what happens. Just tell us again, how we connect with
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: you on the web, how we find out more about you?
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: He Garry Yes, on Instagram, on parrague PA r ag A,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: me A, M I n E s Q. And on
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the web. My website is www dot law p l
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: A dot com. Again, that's www dot law PLA dot com.
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: And the links in the show notes to this interview
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: on Financial Survival Network dot com. Go click it and
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: we just ask if you go there, please sign up
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: for your free newsletter, got one coming out shortly and
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: if you've got a question, comment for myself or Parague,
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: or just tell us what you think of this.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Do you think it's time for Powell to go?
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: Just shoot me an email, klatcarrieluts dot com.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: Parag been a pleasure, Thanks for stopping by.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Kerry, thanks for listening to Carrie Lets's Financial
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
• 20:47
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• 20:52
  Speaker 2: now more than ever