Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Buy Now or REGRET Your Entire Life + Stock Market News 07 March 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Buy Now or REGRET Your Entire Life + Stock Market News 07 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream where well, we got some data out.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Just that was meant to drive a rally this morning and guess what?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: It hasn't materialized so far.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: So what I want to do instead is A understand that data and I want to show you the indicators that are pointing towards a near-market bottom, plus the things that might scare the bejesus out of us, because we need to see both sides of it right.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: You can't just go into it as a perma-optimist although I'm usually a perma-optimist but we gotta understand what's happening here in the short term, what trump just did, what the payroll data just did, what the fed's about to say literally today, and the key indicators to watch to be best prepared for what's coming so you can make the most money.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Isn't that the goal?
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Is that the goal for everybody?
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: If that's the goal for you, write um, well, write money in in the chat.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Actually, I think that's probably the most appropriate thing we could be putting in there today, so write that in there.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: I'm going to share my screen with you here.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market tesla bleeding, nvidia and abgo rally.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: I've just made a whole video on the ABGO earnings which are outstanding, by the way and I will put that out after this video.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So make sure you are subscribed.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: But overall it's not quite the green rebound we wanted.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So let's walk through why and what Wallstreet was expecting, what we actually got here.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: So this is the data just out literally an hour ago or so.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: And what is it?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Nfp, non-farm payroll.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: It's sort of what Wall Street really looks at.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Wall Street doesn't care that much about unemployment yeah, they don't really care about the little people, but they do care about its non-farm payrolls.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And we're expecting that to come in around 160,000 jobs, which basically means new jobs created.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: We've got 151,000.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So you might think, ok, that's a little bit less, but what actually really matters is non-farm payrolls private, because we don't care that much about the government.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: We know that they're up to all sorts of things, firing people at right, left and centres.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Well, funnily enough, the government actually created some jobs, believe it or not.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: 11,000.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Not sure whether that's a seasonal thing or something.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I haven't looked into that it might be, I don't know parks or something like that.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Anyway, the private sector was expecting to create 142,000 jobs.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Created 140,000.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: That's basically the same number, right?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: So is that good news?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Is that bad news?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just news, right, it's neither good, it's not neither bad.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We're kind of exactly where we were.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Now, of course, the media is going to focus on unemployment rate going up from 4% to 4.1% going.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I am unemployment, the world's about to end.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: You know, walk around with a cardboard sign, sort of thing, but it's, it's, it's.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: It's not really relevant.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: It's like 0.1.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It's neither here nor there.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Really, what we care about is the non-farm payroll data.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: The other bit of data that is useful is average hourly earnings, because if your earnings go up, well, it causes inflation.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Right, it means, yes, you are better off, but you are doing it to the detriment of your fellow investors.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: And that also came at 0.3.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Last month was 0.4.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So this is a pretty decent data set.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Right now, what was wall street expecting?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And that's always what really matters and you're in luck, I've got the actual expectation from Goldman Sachs.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So they said if NFP comes in at 100 to 150,000, the S&P will drop 0.75%, but if it comes at 150,000 to 200,000, it's going to go up 1.25%.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So what did we get?
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Well, we got 151,000.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: So we're basically right on the line of like do we go up, do we go down?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: And it seems that they were actually right for once, because….
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: This is the S&P data came out here and we're basically trading at exactly the same level.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I mean like pretty much exactly the same level.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: We're up very moderately 0.2%.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Neither here nor there really Spiked up a little bit, came back.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Now we seem to be coming up a little bit again.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So the market's basically going eh, eh, that's it.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: That's the level of excitement we've got going there.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: So that make some sense.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense?
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: If that makes some sense, um, write number one in the chat and I I see that you're actually alive and and well, and that this makes this makes some sense to you and it's landing for you, which is really what this is all about.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: So nicholas says that makes some sense.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, okay, you're first, my friend, I'd like to see it.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: David says one back, love.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Brent says one.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Um, okay, all the ones are coming in.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Peaceful there.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Mark in spain.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Marcus one.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I like that.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: You're writing that out, my friend.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: That's very classy.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Make the bolts great again, yeah.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So what do we therefore need to understand?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Well, the next question is like what do you buy, what do you sell?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Right, and my intention with this whole community is to give you not just the day's news and commentary on it, but actually give you rules and actually give you financial education, because, if you're honest with yourself, that's probably the one thing that's holding you back, right.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Like I often ask, what are you most worried about?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Is it losing money or is it missing out on the next big opportunity?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: And it's usually both, depending a little bit on the day.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: We can do something about both of those things if you actually understand the rules that Wall Street uses, that most successful traders use to actually decide when they buy and when they sell and we'll run through some examples in our favorite stocks in a moment here together.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, I want you to learn the rules so you don't need me anymore.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: That's really the intention here with that.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So go get yourself to the rules.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: It's completely free.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: It'll take you 15 minutes to do.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Felix, friends at oxlush, get free, and I'd much rather you leave this video right now and you go and watch that, because you'll actually learn skills and knowledge that you'll keep forever, that that have taken me like 13 years to acquire.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Then hear the commentary on what's happening today in the market.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So who's going to go and watch the learn the rules.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: If you're going to learn the rules, write rules in the chat, so I know you're actually going to go and take some action.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It also will hold yourself, hold you accountable, because now you've told a 2000 people here, right?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Because now you've told 2,000 people here, right.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Let me run you through a few indicators of where we are in terms of sentiment, in terms of you know, are we oversold?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Should we be bouncing off here, and so on.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Brent, exactly, yes, three bonus minutes.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So Monica is going to watch the rules, michael is.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: John has already watched it Brilliant.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Neil says proof that you're not a bot.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: And, like the video, brian's going to watch it Fantastic.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm sure more of the 2,000 of you are actually going to watch that.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: But maybe you don't know how to type yet or maybe you haven't hit the subscribe button so you can type Now the Goldman Sachs US equity sentiment indicator.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Equity is just a fancy word for stocks, by the way.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: It makes the bankers feel smarter, so they say equities.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: It's the same sort of thing.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Seen it, brilliant, done.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Rules.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Watching all the stuff Okay, love you, seen it, brilliant, done.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Rules.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Watching all the stuff okay, love you guys for it.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Um, watched it.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, okay.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So the sentiment indicator you know we were, we were at like after the election, we were in like la la land, and right now we're at minus 0.4.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Now, is minus 0.4 really really low or really really high?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Well, it's sort of neither, isn't it?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: We've been much lower, I mean 2022, right after the covid collapse.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Do you have to go that low?
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: No, you don't.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, sometimes you just do these little dips, right, sometimes you do big dips, but 2019 was a pretty, pretty significant one.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So this doesn't really tell you.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: It just says we're further to the misery side of life than to the excited, exuberant side of life.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So, you know, it actually makes me feel slightly more bullish, because we've come down a long way, right, like a really long way, and the last time we came down from such a high was literally 2017, and then we just had a little little dip there, right?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Kevin, a new guy there, love the possibilities.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: I'm listening.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, kevin, my friend.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: This is all about learning.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It's all about skills, not about the lovely clickbait titles that we have fun with.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: This is really.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I want to give you knowledge.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: That's really what this is all about.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a really fantastic chart, I think, and basically it shows what it shows that often what about these two charts?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Things rhyme, and in this case it's Trump 1.0 versus Trump 2.0.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Trump 2.0 is apparently much better looking I'm sure that's what he would say.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So he looked a little bit tired, right.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I saw some clips of him yesterday and his eyes are shutting a little bit, and he signed that crypto thing and he was like what's this all about?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I'm tired, I want to go to bed.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: And what happened the first time around?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Well, the first time is the green line here.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: And well, the market tanked right and then the market recovered and then basically continued to recover.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: And at the moment it's following pretty much exactly the same playbook, like tank the market first, with all the uncertainty and all the noise, and then, of course, we're hoping for recovery.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: So the question is when does the recovery come in?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Will it be in March, as it did last time?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: The man got into the White House?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: True life there.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: You have a point about the likes 200 likes.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: It's a harsh crowd today, isn't it?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I think that's what happens when the market's tipping and one's a bit frustrated like I'm not going to give that bastard a click.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: He talked about a stock the other day and it's down now.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: It's his fault.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I get that.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: But let me give you some good news to cheer you up.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: You know I talk a lot about ctas, which are what ctas are?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Algo funds.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So they're computers that trade, and they trade a lot of money um, a couple of trillion dollars, I think.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: And well, they sold last week 47 billion dollars, which didn't help.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: And this is from goldman sachs, by the way, goldman sachs gs.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: They say for this week, basically, yeah, by next week they say we're going to be exhausting the sale.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So the beautiful thing here is that they're basically done selling, which means Monday could come in a little bit happier, because it's nice when $47 billion of stocks don't get sold in a week, right, but these idiotic algo funds.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: So a little bit of positive news here, right, I mean it's not amazing, it's just I'm just saying like one of the biggest sellers is stepping away from the selling board.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Ok, here is something more positive.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: You know Wedbush, that colorful chap there from Wedbush.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: He's just added Tesla to their best ideas list, outperform rating, $550 price target, and he's saying we don't really care about any of it, car delivery numbers or any of that.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: All that we care about is self-driving.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: That's all he's saying.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: So they say we believe autonomous driving and Optimus represent 90% of the value of Tesla and it'll create a $2 trillion stock.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Well, it's not me saying that of stock Wall Street.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: That's not me saying that.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Now, who's gone over to watch the trading?
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Have we lost some people yet to go watch and learn the three trading rules that Wall Street's been using literally for decades and that if you know it, you'll be able to spot breakouts forever and you'll know when to sell?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So you don't hold backs?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Who's watched that yet?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Who's going to go and watch it?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Let me know.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Felix, friends and oxlash get free.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: The link is down below and fox is also very kindly posted in the chat here, which I will um pin to the top, and I just saw your question actually there, fox.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Fox is asking about what do you think about the white house crypto announcement?
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Well, I think it was pretty disappointing, because, well, what did they promise?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Well, he promised a national crypto reserve.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at BTCUSD here and it's well.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: It's at 89,000.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: It's not bad, but it's obviously not quite the bounce that people were hoping for here, and that's because they're not buying any Bitcoin.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: They're just saying all the Bitcoin that the government already owns is going to go into one central pot, and we're done.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: So he's ticked the box, but it's not what people wanted to hear.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: People wanted to hear that he's going to buy, you know, $100 billion worth of Bitcoin or something.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Now it's with Bitcoin often sell the news and if that's what the US government wanted to do, they would have just bought the Bitcoin and then announced it.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: So you should have seen a significant rally, because why would you pre-announce it?
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: So you have to pay more for it, right?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: That makes no sense.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: So maybe people were a little bit overly optimistic.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I kind of thought it would be a sell the news type event, but either way, we're lingering around the $90,000.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: I think, if you zoom out a little bit on Bitcoin, that isn't really such a bad place to be right, not such a terrible place to be.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: So I think we're going to be good on Bitcoin in the long run.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: That's my personal opinion on that.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of money in in it, but I have some money on options and so on.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Now the other thing that wobbled the market yesterday this is um trump's uh commerce secretary here talking to besin, talking to bloomberg, and he said or he was asked um could be.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: He said could we be seeing this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit?
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Sure?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Look, there's going to be a natural adjustment.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: As we move away from public spending, the market, the stock market, has become hooked and we've become addicted to this government spending.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: There's going to be a detox period.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: So what you're experiencing, folks, it's not a crash, it's not a dip, it's a detox, as in.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: It's good for you.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Does it feel healthy?
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Who does this feel healthy for?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Right, right, right Detox in the chat.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: So I know you're loving it, are you loving this detox?
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: And then he's asked you know there is no put.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: He said the Trump call on the upside is if we have good policies, then the markets will go up, and obviously that's a an options reference there.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: He's basically saying trump wants the market to go up, but we're going to do it through good policies, not through some sort of pumping stimulus, anything like that.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: So they seem happy and content with the uh, the present sort of weed out, the.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: You know the weak spots.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: And there are quite a few detox fans here Monica and Logan and Alpha Charlie.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Very healthy.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Okay Tox, you're liking it?
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I need a detox.