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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I am Buying the TRADE WAR Dip + Stock Market News 08 July 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And we did it.
• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your patience.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: The other stream was broken For some reason.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I broke it, or Albert broke it, or somebody broke it.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Anyway, we're live, which I appreciate you joining me here today, and I want to walk you through the following four very important points for investors today.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: One tariffs explained for actual investors.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Explain for actual investors.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: And then number two do you know, what actually matters is not tariffs.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Everyone's talking about tariffs, but it's actually just noise.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: And then number three why the bar for a big, beautiful rally is so very, very, very low.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: And then I want to also give you the one chart that should keep you up at night.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's as important as that chart seriously is.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: So once you understand that, life will be different.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: You never look at a cat the same way again.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: And if you find some value in that, give it a W or something for Winston.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Where did Winston go?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Winston come, let's see where that guy went.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: He abandoned me as the stream wasn't working.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Winston, where did you go?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Come on back over here.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Come on back over here, where you belong.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: All right, snuggle in, sit down, please.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: We can only see paws Right.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: So if you got some value out of that, hopefully, and then you know very large paws, then you're in the right place.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So let me first of all break down the terrace for you here and preaching all the W's there, all just for that very naughty dog.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Where is he going?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Why is he going over there?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Hang on, what are you doing?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: What are you doing?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know what he's up to Right.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: So there is Winston.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Cam zoomed in a little bit too much right.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: There he is in his full glory, winston.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: What are you up to?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: What are you up to?
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So you can see my shorts Now sitting this aside, this is actually important, and we sort of cloak the important stuff here in kittens most of the time, and where we are right now is approximately here.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So tariff rates right now are about 14% to 16%, somewhere in that general vicinity.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: When the whole thing April Freedom Day and so on kicked off, we were like, oh my God, we're going to go to like 29% or something.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: So that was double where we are right now.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Now we expect them Well, I say we, this is Goldman Sachs they expect them to creep up a little bit, as there'll be slightly higher tariffs on, you know, the Europeans and the Japanese and Koreans and so on, but not a lot, right, like from 16 to 19% is a relatively small step for mankind.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: You know that sort of thing and that's important to realize.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Where we are at, where we're now expecting to be, it's basically priced in, right?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We're no longer worried about anything.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Is Scott wielding his powers, is he?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I very much hope so.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I hope people are not still stuck on the old stream.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: It's entirely possible.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: And this is literally the difference between I think this was April 4th, right, freedom Day, was that April 4th?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: And this is right now, the same Tower of Announcements.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Basically, we went to extreme fear Right now.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: We were at extreme greed yesterday, I think.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Now we're just at greed, so the market does not care a lot.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Day, right, it wasn't amazing, but overall it was pretty moderate.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: The stuff that got hit the most was sort of Toyota and a bit of Korean stuff, but it wasn't really a big deal.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: And look at the pre market Tesla is up, nvidia is up, avgo is up, oracle is up 2%.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Pretty much everything is looking pretty decent.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Amd up 1.7%, mew up 1.5%, so things are looking rather good on the tariff front.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So I would not focus on the tariff noise right now.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I would focus on what's coming next.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through that in just a few minutes.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Now I wanted to ask you something and I put a question in the previous live stream which I broke, so I shall do it one more time.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I'll start a Q&A.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Why are you using I'd love it if you guys answered that in the chat, because we're collecting a bit of feedback here why are you using slash loving freight visionio?
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: And if you don't love it, you can also tell me that.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I'd like some honest feedback there.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Just put your replies in the chat, little paragraph or whatever you want to write.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Be amazing.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I'd love to see that.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Now I seem to have broken the live chat in the process.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Is that what happens?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, the questions are separate from live chat.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, anybody who's a trade mission user, put that in the chat there.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I'd love it if you did that.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Guys, if you're not yet, get yourself a free trial and check it out, and then you can tell me what you think of it.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: And honestly, I want to just get honest feedback.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So be be brutal.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Um says winston.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Where did winston go?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: All right, I've got him.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I've got him now.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Uh, there he is.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: There he is we.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: We can zoom in a little bit on him too.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: You can see, I need to do some painting.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Where did you go?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: There you went.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: He's just been playing with the kittens.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: That's why he looks so terrified.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: No, so exhausted, all right.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So this is a chart that I want you to take a screenshot of, because this is the chart that should be keeping you up at night, if you are.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Who owns an ETF?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Anybody own an ETF.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Anybody.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Anybody own an ETF.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Mr Moose, I appreciate not.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: But, mr Moose, I appreciate not.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: But 8am, do you think?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Think or swim is good for charts.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, use the desktop version Rather you than me.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, to all the ETF crowd out there, let me know what ETFs you own SPY, qqq, tsll.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: All right, there's a problem with that.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Market breadth is at, or very close to, an all-time low.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: It means this.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Let me write it out.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I'll type it so you can actually read it Most stocks will suck in this coming massive stock market rally.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Most stocks will not participate.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Most stocks will underperform.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Most stocks will make you poorer.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Most stocks will make you sleep worse at night.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Most stocks will miss out on the wealth building opportunity in front of you.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Simple, and we were there before.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Do you remember 2023?
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Same story.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: 2020, same story, and those are always the rallies.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So, in the real rallies, your ETF sucks, your index fund sucks, it doesn't perform and it's just simply because the world's unfair and there are a couple of companies that are in the right sectors at the right time and they make all the money and everybody else is just like filler.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Why does the rest of the filler exist?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: So Wall Street can charge more fees, so Wall Street can tell you buy my fund, give me a percentage point for the rest of your life, and that sort of thing.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: John says 95% of stocks suck.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, stocks like.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, statistically it's 96 96 of stocks, and 96 of stocks are worse than treasuries, which are government bonds right, treasury.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: My screen just went off and on um, apparently I'm not meant to share this information, seriously.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Everything just went flicker off and on.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: That's weird, um, I thought that only happens in um, I don't know banana republics.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: So the question is how are you going to deal with that?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: So if you buy the etf, yeah, you'll do average, but a lot of people will do like five, 10 times more than you.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: So if you want to potentially do that I'm not promising you returns here then you've got to learn how to pick those stocks.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: That's what I would suggest you do, because that's what I did, and that's how we have a lot of fun here, because we don't really need to do anything.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I have a lot of fun here because we don't really need to do anything.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, life is just beautiful.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I just interviewed a new driver.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Some seem slightly weird in the time of self-driving, but apparently they're still required.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: That was sort of the productive thing I did today and I'm planning for a trip because we're meeting up with our Trade Vision crew, which is why I asked you guys those questions.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Rad Catcher says Trade Vision great, great with the watchers function, but annoying.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Switching from breakout stocks to chart view goes back to previous share fund displayed, not the breakout stocks, like that.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on that.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you on that.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Uh, thank you for the feedback.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: I love the support and resistance level, says Stefan.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Chart is very readable because of the scale of color.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I'd like to have a possibility to draw in the mobile app.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, yes, absolutely, coming my friend.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So anybody else got some feedback on why you're using Trade Vision?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Please let me know.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Just a line or two would be amazing.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: We can get some feedback from you guys there.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: You said once you owned ETFs, your family can sleep at night.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so they can sleep at night.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Not so I can sleep at night.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: You see the difference?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I'm very confident that I outperformed the index, but they have some irrational fears and the best way to deal with irrational fears is just find whatever turns them off, and then you do that and then everybody has a happy life.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: You also get to a point where you don't necessarily need to maximize every dollar.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: So, to me, owning an ETF is a luxury that makes very little sense.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: 96% of money advisors are worse.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I like the dark pool information.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Trade vision is very user-friendly.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It makes sense to add a stock grader to it.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Interesting, you can follow along, okay, cool.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So anyway, my long story here is that if you're worried about this and that, therefore, your ETF portfolio is going to massively underperform the market which it will then I'd recommend you go and watch that.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Literally bagger off, leave this video and go and actually do something useful, which would be to learn these rules.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Who has learned the rules already?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: If you've learned the rules, put an R in the chat for rules and maybe that'll encourage one or two newbies to do the same thing.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: And I'm glad 3,000 of us found us here on the new live stream.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I apologize again for cocking up the previous one.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I think what I did is I was on a Zoom call before and, rather than clicking the virtual camera button, I accidentally started the stream and then stopped, and that probably killed it.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So, anyway, the thing that actually matters here loads of R's here, loads of R's, which is really really cool, thank you guys.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Loads of hours, which is really really cool, thank you guys.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Which means look how many people actually we're teaching some rules to Winston.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Where did Winston go?
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Winston's gone the other way.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Where did Winston go?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Hang on, let me see.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: This is why we have a camera.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: There is Winston.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: There are kittens behind that door.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: That's why he's there.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: There he is, and we don't let them out ever.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: No kidding, they were.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Have some VIX at present, because I thought it was cheap.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I still think it's cheap, but I wouldn't hold a fund on it.