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Boeing Union Endorses Offer, America's Oil Resurgence · Bloomberg Intelligence

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0:23
Speaker 2: Boeing is John Tucker is just reporting.
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Speaker 3: It looks like the leaders of the union and Boeing
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Speaker 3: they have an agreement. I think this is the third
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Speaker 3: agreement they're going to bring to the rank and file,
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Speaker 3: and let's see if the rank and file approves it,
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Speaker 3: because they've turned down the last two.
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Speaker 2: But it's thirty percent for four years and bonuses.
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Speaker 4: I don't know.
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Speaker 3: It sounds pretty good to me. Let's check it out
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Speaker 3: with Thomas Black. He's a Bloomberg opinion Columnisty covers logistics, manufacturing, aerospace. Thomas,
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Speaker 3: it seems like a good deal to me. But what
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Speaker 3: do I know what's going on here with Boeing in
0:50
Speaker 3: their union these days.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, it looks like a quite a rich deal.
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Speaker 6: We'll see if the workers want to take it. They
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Speaker 6: they started out with a nominal twenty five percent rays
1:03
Speaker 6: offer and it's now the thirty eight percent.
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Speaker 5: But if you compound that, which is how.
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Speaker 6: You should do it, it's a forty four percent raise
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Speaker 6: over four years.
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Speaker 5: So that's pretty chunky.
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Speaker 7: I mean, when we think about these negotiations back and forth,
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Speaker 7: does this seem to be lengthy? I mean, I'm thinking
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Speaker 7: back to the writer's strike that went on for some time,
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Speaker 7: and you have to really hit a middle place to
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Speaker 7: where everyone's coming to a compromise. How do we think
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Speaker 7: about this with Boeing moving forward and getting production back
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Speaker 7: to what it is looking for.
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Speaker 6: Well, the workers have all the power right now. They
1:38
Speaker 6: really do have quite a bit of leverage, and that's
1:40
Speaker 6: why Boeing has taken so much time trying to settle this.
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Speaker 6: The Boeing is in bad shape financially, they're losing money.
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Speaker 6: They have customers who are climbering for aircraft. They have
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Speaker 6: suppliers who are trying to figure out production schedules so
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Speaker 6: that they can ramp up their production. So Boeing really
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Speaker 6: needs to get its plants started. So the workers know
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Speaker 6: this and that's why they've been holding out. And they've
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Speaker 6: got a deal on the table. Let's see if they
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Speaker 6: take it. If they don't, I think there's a little
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Speaker 6: bit of an anger issue maybe there, Maybe the workers
2:15
Speaker 6: want to lash out at the company because ten years
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Speaker 6: ago they did get a raw deal from the company
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Speaker 6: when it had the upper hand.
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Speaker 5: So the tables have turned.
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Speaker 6: But now we're going to see Monday if they're going
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Speaker 6: to accept this deal and get production cranking up.
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Speaker 3: So, Thomas, when you talk to people kind of within
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Speaker 3: the process on both sides here, what's the feeling. I
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Speaker 3: mean at the end of the day, is that it
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Speaker 3: just a numbers thing.
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Speaker 2: Is it thirty eight percent? No, I want forty two percent?
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Speaker 3: Or is there other issues that are out there that
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Speaker 3: are challenging here, because it's surprising that they haven't that
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Speaker 3: they I guess that it's surprising that the negotiations has
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Speaker 3: been so difficult.
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Speaker 2: What do you think they're looking for?
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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the workers really wanted to reinstate their
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Speaker 6: defined benefit pension plan, which again ten years ago that
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Speaker 6: was taken away from them. As you know, those plans
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Speaker 6: have been declining over the decades. There are very few
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Speaker 6: out there right where you get a certain monthly retirement
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Speaker 6: stipen and that lasts for the rest of your life.
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Speaker 6: It's now all the four to one K savings plan.
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Speaker 6: So they were really trying to bring that back, which
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Speaker 6: would be unprecedented. This deal does not do that. So
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Speaker 6: we'll see if the pay ray was enough. And there's
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Speaker 6: also a twelve thousand dollars signing bonus to sweeten the deals.
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Speaker 6: So we'll just see if the workers are willing to
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Speaker 6: accept this.
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Speaker 7: As you know in your story, there's not one, but
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Speaker 7: two issues. Of course, you have the strike here, but additionally,
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Speaker 7: on the other end, we have to talk about this
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Speaker 7: fragile supply chain environment for the company. When you're talking
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Speaker 7: to sources and just research more broadly, what does it
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Speaker 7: seem as though it will be the next thing to
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Speaker 7: push Boeing forward? I mean this is still a lingering
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Speaker 7: issue for them.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, they Boeing has all kinds of problems in
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Speaker 5: its factory floor. They've had quality issues, They've had work
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Speaker 5: coming in at different stages that's got them out of sequence,
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Speaker 5: and that's caused all kinds of problems. They've had supplier
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Speaker 5: quality issues, so that they've got some real problems to tackle.
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Speaker 5: Now this is really just the first step is to
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Speaker 5: get workers back in the factories. Number one issue for
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Speaker 5: Kelly Orkberg, the CEO at Boeing, is to heal the
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Speaker 5: rift with the employers.
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Speaker 6: They have to get them on board and really change
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Speaker 6: the culture on the factory floor so that they're making
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Speaker 6: those quality planes and very efficiently.
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Speaker 5: On the other side, it's the suppliers. The suppliers have
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Speaker 5: been whiplashed quite a bit.
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Speaker 6: It was the pandemic that hurt them, and then we
4:45
Speaker 6: had the Max grounding because of the fatal crashes there,
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Speaker 6: and we had problems with the seven eighty seven aircraft
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Speaker 6: that was grounded for a while, so they've really had
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Speaker 6: they haven't been able to just produce regularly. They've had
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Speaker 6: at all kinds of on and off situations with Boeing,
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Speaker 6: so that healing that supplier base is key as well too.
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Speaker 6: So the good thing about Boeing is that they don't
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Speaker 6: have to worry about the customers.
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Speaker 5: The customers want the planes. The planes are on order,
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Speaker 5: they have a massive backlog.
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Speaker 6: They really just need to get their production up and
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Speaker 6: ramp it up and show the regulators the FAA that
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Speaker 6: they can make quality planes and then they'll be in
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Speaker 6: good shape, all right.
5:29
Speaker 2: Thomas Black, thank you so much for joining us.
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Speaker 3: Thomas Blanky's a Columnstrom Bloomberg opinion covering all the logistics stuff,
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Speaker 3: talking about Boeing.
5:36
Speaker 2: Here.
5:36
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5:55
Speaker 3: Let's get back to the economic data of the day.
5:58
Speaker 3: That's the jobs number came in with With the next
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Speaker 3: A lot of folks said they get ready for that.
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Speaker 2: It was to be.
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Speaker 3: Expected with hurricanes and strikes and all that kind of stuff.
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Speaker 3: Let's check in with an expert here, Jenny Biley. She's
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Speaker 3: a division president at Employe Bridge. Jenny, what did you
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Speaker 3: take out of the labor number today?
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Speaker 8: Yeah, this was a tough report. Certainly, I kind of
6:18
Speaker 8: will refer to it a little bit as maybe this
6:20
Speaker 8: was the October surprise that everyone was always waiting for.
6:24
Speaker 8: But we know that many of these job cuts, you
6:28
Speaker 8: know that are happening. A lot of it came from
6:30
Speaker 8: the impacts of the hurricane and the strikes. However, most
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Speaker 8: of the job growth that we've discussed this before on
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Speaker 8: your program, most of the job growth is really coming
6:41
Speaker 8: from the government sector and the healthcare sector. So if
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Speaker 8: you look at this private number, we actually lost jobs.
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Speaker 8: If you back out the government gain of forty thousand,
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Speaker 8: we would have lost jobs. A private sector would have
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Speaker 8: lost twenty eight thousand. So this this is a concerning report.
7:01
Speaker 8: Even with the hurricane and even with the strikes. You know,
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Speaker 8: across the board, many of the sectors are really losing jobs,
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Speaker 8: and especially you know, that manufacturing number had a loss
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Speaker 8: of I believe forty six thousand jobs. And then the
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Speaker 8: sector that I'm in, the temporary help sector, lost almost
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Speaker 8: fifty thousand jobs, and so that is concerning as well.
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Speaker 8: You can see that companies are still very cautious to hire,
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Speaker 8: and they're letting their temporary workers, you know, go first
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Speaker 8: as they try to hold on to their permanent payrolls
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Speaker 8: and permanent employees.
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Speaker 7: I mean, we're just under a week away from the
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Speaker 7: next FED meeting, and of course this is going to
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Speaker 7: be some data that the Federal Reserve will be parsing.
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Speaker 7: How should we be thinking about this in the context
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Speaker 7: of the rate cut environment and what trajectory could look
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Speaker 7: like at this next meeting and beyond, well, you.
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Speaker 8: Know, I think the Fed will really dig into this
8:02
Speaker 8: report because it's not just the October numbers that look
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Speaker 8: so soft, but they also went back and revised the
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Speaker 8: prior two months downward and took another one hundred and
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Speaker 8: twelve thousand jobs out of the job market. So I
8:20
Speaker 8: think the FED will be looking at this report and saying,
8:23
Speaker 8: you know, the job the job market is not as
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Speaker 8: strong as maybe we thought it was, and we are
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Speaker 8: starting to see even though wages are still up, I
8:33
Speaker 8: can tell you wages are starting to soften. They're certainly
8:38
Speaker 8: not keeping up, you know, with inflationary costs. So I
8:42
Speaker 8: do believe that the FED will look at this report
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Speaker 8: and look at these numbers and what's happening with unemployment,
8:49
Speaker 8: the participation rate, where the job growth is coming from,
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Speaker 8: and realized that, you know, this is this is a
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Speaker 8: bit of a challenging job market. And in other reports too,
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Speaker 8: we are seeing, you know, increase in layoffs and many sectors,
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Speaker 8: I know, the challenger in Gray report came out and
9:09
Speaker 8: again showed, you know that layoffs continue to happen. So
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Speaker 8: there are certainly some concerns out there in this in
9:16
Speaker 8: this job market JO just.
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Speaker 3: Thirty seconds left here, the wage inflation or the wage
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Speaker 3: four percent seems pretty solid to me, but you see
9:25
Speaker 3: some a little bit of concern out there.
9:27
Speaker 4: I do.
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Speaker 8: I think employers have you know, been increasing wages really
9:32
Speaker 8: for quite a few years, and at this point, with
9:37
Speaker 8: where the job market is, I think that that's going
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Speaker 8: to just flatten off. That's what we're hearing from employers,
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Speaker 8: you know, large employers, mid size employers, they're really watching
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Speaker 8: their labor costs and they're having to be more conservative.
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Speaker 3: Johnny, thank you so much for joining us. We always
9:54
Speaker 3: appreciate chatting with you on these important jobs days. Joinny Biley.
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Speaker 3: She's a chief workforce analyst at employee Bridge, joining us
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Speaker 3: via zoom here again, the nonfarm payroll came in at
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Speaker 3: twelve thousand. The consensus essmenate was for one hundred thousand.
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Speaker 3: Last month was two hundred and fifty four thousand. A
10:11
Speaker 3: lot of economs to say, you know, there's hurricane effects,
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Speaker 3: there's layoff effects, so got to take that into account.
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10:32
Speaker 3: Let's stay on the labor front here and get a
10:36
Speaker 3: sense of kind of where we are in terms of DEI.
10:39
Speaker 7: Diversity, equity and inclusion.
10:42
Speaker 2: Equity and inclusion.
10:43
Speaker 3: Thank you very much. It seems I'm not sure it's
10:46
Speaker 3: waxing or waning, and some companies are backing away from it.
10:49
Speaker 3: Someone companies continue to lean into it. Alan Schwyer joins us.
10:52
Speaker 3: He is a principal researcher of human capital at the
10:54
Speaker 3: Conference Board.
10:55
Speaker 2: Alan, thanks so much for joining us here.
10:57
Speaker 3: As we think about DEI, we've seen some fairly high profile,
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Speaker 3: publicly traded companies kind of back away a little bit
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Speaker 3: from that. Can you give us a sense kind of
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Speaker 3: where we are on diversity, equity and inclusion in corporate America?
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Speaker 9: Yeah, sure, you know, I think there are a lot
11:13
Speaker 9: of reports of organizations moving away from DEI or backing off,
11:18
Speaker 9: if not canceling DEI, but they're they're very much the minority.
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Speaker 9: Our research over the past year and those that of
11:25
Speaker 9: others really shows that about eighty to ninety percent of
11:29
Speaker 9: organizations are holding the course or expanding their DEI programs.
11:34
Speaker 9: So we think it's maybe gets a little more attention
11:37
Speaker 9: when when someone you know quits their d I programs,
11:41
Speaker 9: but the great majority are holding firm.
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Speaker 7: I mean, what have been the effects? I mean, of course,
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Speaker 7: we know last year the Supreme Court did reverse affirmative action.
11:49
Speaker 7: The ruling there has that had an impact at all
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Speaker 7: when we think about hiring in the corporate America space.
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Speaker 9: Yeah, it has. You know, technically the Supreme Court ruling
11:59
Speaker 9: because this IDOL six does not have an impact on
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Speaker 9: the workforce, but we know that it has a chilling
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Speaker 9: effect on DEI programs. In fact, our most recent research
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Speaker 9: shows that more than two thirds of executives say that
12:13
Speaker 9: it is putting a negative having a negative effect on
12:16
Speaker 9: their DEI programs. So yeah, I mean, the Supreme Court
12:20
Speaker 9: decision has certainly made an impact.
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Speaker 3: What are you seeing from workers themselves? What are workers
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Speaker 3: looking for? Are they embracing DEI? Is this something they
12:31
Speaker 3: feel has value within their workplace?
12:35
Speaker 1: Yeah.
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Speaker 9: We just surveyed the US workforce. We had a big sample,
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Speaker 9: almost fourteen hundred workers, managers and up to the director level,
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Speaker 9: and workers are saying they want DEI. In fact, the
12:47
Speaker 9: majorities say they would not work or would only reluctantly
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Speaker 9: work in an organization that does not take DEI seriously.
12:54
Speaker 9: So that's a powerful signal, and it differs between groups
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Speaker 9: at work, but over all, the majority of workers do
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Speaker 9: want to see DEI initiatives and want to work in
13:05
Speaker 9: diverse organizations, according to our research.
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Speaker 7: So from an investor perspective, of course, people are really
13:11
Speaker 7: thinking about returns. Have there has there been any data
13:14
Speaker 7: to show that this actually impacts returns from companies.
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Speaker 9: No, it's a good question, and it's very hard to
13:20
Speaker 9: link DEI programs directly to financial incomes, but we know
13:24
Speaker 9: that it does drive engagement. In fact, our survey respondents
13:28
Speaker 9: tell us that it improves engagement, improves belonging, improves inclusion,
13:33
Speaker 9: and improves retention. And if it does those things, then
13:37
Speaker 9: you know, naturally there's a there's a link, but it's
13:39
Speaker 9: not a direct link to financial performance.
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Speaker 3: So Dan, what's the Are there certain industries within corporate
13:48
Speaker 3: America that are more on board with DEI versus maybe
13:52
Speaker 3: some others.
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Speaker 9: Yeah, in this research, we found that the services sector
13:58
Speaker 9: is you know, the responses from employees in the services
14:02
Speaker 9: sector are certainly stronger than in the core manufacturing type
14:08
Speaker 9: industries and not unexpected. But again, overall, the workers want
14:16
Speaker 9: to see more D. But you're right in certain industries
14:19
Speaker 9: there is a stronger preference for more DEI programs than
14:25
Speaker 9: in others.
14:26
Speaker 7: Can you also speak to particular age demographics. Is there
14:29
Speaker 7: any difference in terms of which generations are embracing the push?
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Speaker 9: Yeah, and this is really important, I think too, because
14:38
Speaker 9: I don't think anyone will be really surprised to hear
14:41
Speaker 9: that the younger generations, millennials and Gen Z are more
14:46
Speaker 9: in favor, more demand, more DEI expect more than older generations.
14:53
Speaker 9: And we know that those generations will form sixty percent
14:56
Speaker 9: or more of the workforce by twenty thirty. You know,
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Speaker 9: I may the same is true for women and minorities.
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Speaker 9: Women and minorities are already the majority of the workforce
15:08
Speaker 9: and have much greater expectation in demand for D in
15:12
Speaker 9: the workforce. So we think, you know, demographics are destiny.
15:16
Speaker 9: This is happening very quickly. In an organization that really
15:19
Speaker 9: actively resists this will probably struggle to survive, I mean,
15:23
Speaker 9: from finding talent and even finding customers.
15:26
Speaker 7: With about thirty seconds, I am looking at this story
15:28
Speaker 7: that says Boeing dismantles DEI team as pressure builds on
15:31
Speaker 7: the new CEO. Have you seen a shift of corporate
15:35
Speaker 7: different companies actually push moving away from DEI and not
15:38
Speaker 7: really seeing it as a priority.
15:42
Speaker 1: Yeah.
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Speaker 9: I think more are moving away from the terms. They
15:46
Speaker 9: can be a lightning rod, and they're focusing on the
15:50
Speaker 9: work more than the words.
15:52
Speaker 10: For sure.
15:53
Speaker 9: Some are backing away, you know, more comprehensively. Most are
15:58
Speaker 9: changing how they describe it, continuing with the work.
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Speaker 3: All right, We'll see how it plays out. Certainly a
16:03
Speaker 3: big part of the culture here at Bloomberg. Alan Schwier,
16:07
Speaker 3: Principal researcher of Human Capital at the Conference Board, joining
16:09
Speaker 3: us from Charleston, South Carolina.
16:17
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16:31
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16:35
Speaker 3: David Weady joins us. He's one of the reporters on
16:37
Speaker 3: that story. He's an energy reporter for Bloomberg News. This
16:40
Speaker 3: is our big take story, and we love the big
16:41
Speaker 3: take stories on Bloomberg. Here, David, how is the oil
16:46
Speaker 3: and gas industry becoming more productive at in the field.
16:51
Speaker 11: Yeah, this was something that really surprised us in the
16:54
Speaker 11: oil industry for how far it spanned beyond just the
16:57
Speaker 11: industry itself into other parts of the ECONO. They're doing
17:00
Speaker 11: it just through little ways.
17:02
Speaker 2: You know.
17:03
Speaker 11: Your first guess, you might think, oh, it's artificial intelligence
17:05
Speaker 11: of what doing it, But really it's not even that
17:07
Speaker 11: we've barely scratched the surface on using AI. It's just
17:10
Speaker 11: a bunch of little things where on their own wouldn't
17:12
Speaker 11: move the needle, but you add them all up and
17:14
Speaker 11: it's making a big difference. It's little things like you know,
17:17
Speaker 11: incentives to the workers to drill faster, you know, catered
17:21
Speaker 11: barbecue lunches out of the rigsite, remodeling their living quarters.
17:25
Speaker 11: It's drilling in a unique pattern in a U shape
17:28
Speaker 11: where you couldn't figure out a way to get all
17:32
Speaker 11: the rest of the oil out of the ground and
17:33
Speaker 11: you have a small footprint. So instead what you do
17:35
Speaker 11: is you drill down sideways and then you turn and
17:39
Speaker 11: go one hundred degrees the other direction to capture the
17:41
Speaker 11: rest of that oil. That was a concept that could
17:43
Speaker 11: never even be thought about earlier in the years as
17:46
Speaker 11: we just sort of kept playing around with ways to
17:49
Speaker 11: drill underground. We figured out a way to do that
17:51
Speaker 11: and to do it correctly. You know, it's also to
17:53
Speaker 11: figure out how to frack two wells at one time,
17:57
Speaker 11: and that not only reduces the friction in one well,
18:00
Speaker 11: it saves on the manpower because you use one crew
18:03
Speaker 11: to now complete two wills at the same time. So
18:06
Speaker 11: it's all these little just sort of small efficiency gains
18:09
Speaker 11: where it's allowed us to get a lot faster at
18:12
Speaker 11: producing at less manpower. And what it really boils down
18:16
Speaker 11: to is you've got about a third of the rigs
18:19
Speaker 11: is which you've had ten years ago, and yet you've
18:21
Speaker 11: got record production. So a dramatic decrease in the amount
18:24
Speaker 11: of equipment and then the people to run them while
18:27
Speaker 11: maintaining enormous amounts of output. And that's a lot of
18:30
Speaker 11: the energy is free to surpass all of their sectors
18:32
Speaker 11: in the economy.
18:34
Speaker 7: So when we're thinking about productivity, of course, one thing
18:36
Speaker 7: that you need to be thinking about is, you know,
18:38
Speaker 7: governmental legislation that will support this. And I see here
18:41
Speaker 7: in the piece you all speak a bit about you know,
18:43
Speaker 7: this upcoming election. You say that Kamala Harris has repeatedly
18:48
Speaker 7: said that she won't be fracking, which is a walk
18:50
Speaker 7: back of comments that she made in twenty nineteen. How
18:52
Speaker 7: much does the government and different policies play a role
18:56
Speaker 7: in the ability for these companies to excel.
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Speaker 11: It's a good question because sometimes it can be misunderstood.
19:02
Speaker 11: Chevron actually talked about it a little bit earlier, and
19:05
Speaker 11: they're doing earnings this morning, and on some of the
19:07
Speaker 11: different interviews, Mike Worth talked about how ultimately the US
19:11
Speaker 11: shale is there and it's not really being restricted by
19:17
Speaker 11: the US government. You know, people talk about whether you
19:20
Speaker 11: can go on federal lands or not. Really where they're
19:22
Speaker 11: doing a lot of the drilling is on private, independent
19:25
Speaker 11: land that the US government does not own, So really
19:28
Speaker 11: that's not very restrictive to these drillers. Where it kind
19:31
Speaker 11: of comes down to more is permitting for things like pipelines.
19:34
Speaker 11: So you drill, you produce, but you got to send
19:36
Speaker 11: it off to market, you got to send it down
19:38
Speaker 11: to the refineries, and so getting timely approvals for the
19:42
Speaker 11: permits to build new pipelines to send more oil and
19:45
Speaker 11: natural gas away from the oil fields is key. So
19:48
Speaker 11: that's kind of one sticking point for policy on any
19:53
Speaker 11: type of administration. Is where the oil industry is going
19:56
Speaker 11: to care.
19:56
Speaker 3: David, you're down there in Houston. That's you know, obviously
19:59
Speaker 3: that the center the US energy business. What's the feeling
20:03
Speaker 3: just a broadly define about the business of energy, because
20:07
Speaker 3: you know, as recently as ten years ago, fifteen years ago,
20:09
Speaker 3: they were talking about peak oil and all that kind
20:11
Speaker 3: of stuff. I don't hear about that as much anymore.
20:14
Speaker 11: Yeah, you don't really hear about it. I think partly
20:17
Speaker 11: because there was this kind of you know, ESU movement
20:19
Speaker 11: and you know, green energy technologies and let's try to
20:23
Speaker 11: do both at the same time. And maybe kind of
20:26
Speaker 11: you saw investors pivot away from investing in oil and gas,
20:29
Speaker 11: and what it kind of led to was a decrease
20:33
Speaker 11: in spending in oil and gas, and so you've had
20:38
Speaker 11: less push to really grow supplies. So it's kind of
20:41
Speaker 11: tightened the picture a little bit, and so there's sort
20:44
Speaker 11: of less concern of maybe this thing is going away
20:48
Speaker 11: and more about let's make sure we have enough supply
20:50
Speaker 11: out there so the prices don't go crazy above one
20:53
Speaker 11: hundred dollars a barrel and really sort of raise red
20:56
Speaker 11: flags on the industry. So I think they're trying to
20:57
Speaker 11: kind of fly below the radar and not too much
21:00
Speaker 11: attention on energy prices that are too high, while still
21:04
Speaker 11: trying to maximize profit and have high enough oil prices
21:07
Speaker 11: that eclipse their sort of break even price and give
21:10
Speaker 11: them a decent amount of profit. So I mean that
21:12
Speaker 11: the mood around here is, you know, I think if
21:16
Speaker 11: you're in the oil industry, you sort of feel like
21:19
Speaker 11: you're not appreciated enough that the politicians don't you know,
21:22
Speaker 11: appreciate you. But otherwise outside of the industry, it sort
21:26
Speaker 11: of is a view of you know, it looks like
21:29
Speaker 11: it's pretty healthy and still productive and profitable and growing.
21:34
Speaker 7: I mean, as we think about just digging a bit
21:36
Speaker 7: deeper into the ESG movement and where we are today,
21:40
Speaker 7: as we think about ESG and just investor sentiments surrounding
21:43
Speaker 7: this sector, have you seen it all pullback in backlash
21:46
Speaker 7: in the space.
21:48
Speaker 11: Yes, I think the backlash is diminished. I mean, there's
21:53
Speaker 11: still going to be the environmental groups out there that
21:56
Speaker 11: are raising concerns and you know, and we're hearing from them.
22:01
Speaker 11: But I think that the broader you know, just push
22:06
Speaker 11: to really kind of drive down this industry. I think
22:09
Speaker 11: you're just seeing a lot less. It's sort of just
22:11
Speaker 11: abated a little bit. And because I think the view
22:13
Speaker 11: is we still need supplies for a while of oil
22:16
Speaker 11: and natural gas, and you know, we can't have electricity
22:20
Speaker 11: shortages even here in Texas of all places. So yeah,
22:23
Speaker 11: it seems like it's kind of dialed back.
22:25
Speaker 3: You've got your own grid. That's how you guys do
22:27
Speaker 3: things down in Texas.
22:27
Speaker 2: We understand that.
22:28
Speaker 3: David Weady, he's an energy reporter for Bloomberg News and
22:31
Speaker 3: he is based fittingly in Houston, Texas. Again, the story,
22:35
Speaker 3: the Big Takes story, is about the productivity in the
22:39
Speaker 3: oil business, the energy business, and thank John Tucker for
22:42
Speaker 3: flagging that for us. That's our Big Take story today
22:44
Speaker 3: on the Bloomberg triml where you can find at the
22:45
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Turminal and on Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take.
22:50
Speaker 2: Check it out there.
22:52
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
22:56
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and with
23:00
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on
23:03
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just Say Alexa,
23:07
Speaker 1: playing Bloomberg eleven thirty, getting.
23:10
Speaker 3: Back to the marketsas John Tucker was just reporting strong
23:13
Speaker 3: day in the equity markets. Here, let's break it down
23:15
Speaker 3: a little bit with Sarah Ponzik. She's the first vice
23:17
Speaker 3: president of wealth management at UBS Private Wealth Management.
23:20
Speaker 2: Coming to us Life from.
23:21
Speaker 3: Del Boca Vista in the Boca Raton, Florida area. Sarah,
23:25
Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us. A lot of earnings
23:27
Speaker 3: this week, a lot of economic data this week. What
23:29
Speaker 3: are you telling your clients these days as they finish
23:32
Speaker 3: up the year and think about next year.
23:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's been a bit of a marathon between this
23:37
Speaker 4: week and next week. Think about the amount of earnings
23:40
Speaker 4: that we've received, not just from any companies, but the
23:42
Speaker 4: largest companies in the stock market and in our economy.
23:45
Speaker 4: Also some economic data. Of course, Jobs Day was today.
23:48
Speaker 4: I know, I'm sure you've discussed it at length already.
23:52
Speaker 4: Then we've got an election next week and the Federal Reserve,
23:54
Speaker 4: so you know, we're going to just jam it in
23:57
Speaker 4: to two weeks.
23:58
Speaker 10: But at the end of the day, we're talking to clients,
24:02
Speaker 10: you know, the picture really hasn't changed.
24:05
Speaker 4: Yes, there's a lot of data, and to be sure,
24:09
Speaker 4: the data's even messy as you know, you know, the
24:11
Speaker 4: job zdata that we receive today is burdened by storms
24:15
Speaker 4: and strikes, and the data itself is messy.
24:17
Speaker 10: So when we look at the overall outlook going out from.
24:21
Speaker 4: Here, nothing that we've seen over the past week, and
24:23
Speaker 4: really nothing that we expect even next week changes the outlook,
24:27
Speaker 4: which is still optimistic and positive from here.
24:30
Speaker 7: So earning season, we just got some mixed reports from
24:32
Speaker 7: these big tech names. I see that you're also keeping
24:34
Speaker 7: an eye on the tech selloff. Talk to me about
24:37
Speaker 7: what's going on there, especially given the fact that people
24:40
Speaker 7: are really depending on this sector for the markets gains.
24:44
Speaker 4: Right, we call it a tech selloff, But nowadays tech
24:47
Speaker 4: sell offs are really just blips. You know, A couple
24:50
Speaker 4: of percentage points is hardly anything when you look at
24:54
Speaker 4: the run that we've seen in tech stocks this year
24:57
Speaker 4: and last year, coming off the volatility of twent two
25:00
Speaker 4: and look, you're absolutely right. At the end of the day,
25:03
Speaker 4: these companies are so so important, largely because they make
25:08
Speaker 4: up such a heavy weight of the indexes. So if
25:11
Speaker 4: you're an investor and you're either comparing yourself to an
25:15
Speaker 4: index like the S and P five hundred or the
25:16
Speaker 4: NASAC or you're invested in an index like the SMP
25:20
Speaker 4: five hundred, Well, these large tech companies are the ones
25:23
Speaker 4: that are really leading the way. And at the end
25:26
Speaker 4: of the day, yes, we saw some volatility post earnings. Yes,
25:29
Speaker 4: these companies are spending so much money on capex or
25:34
Speaker 4: capital expenditures when it comes to AI, but at the
25:37
Speaker 4: end of the day, we do believe that this spending
25:39
Speaker 4: is going to pay off. These large megacap companies are
25:43
Speaker 4: at the forefront of this AI boom that we're going
25:48
Speaker 4: to see in the years to come.
25:50
Speaker 10: And it's really amazing when you look at the big
25:54
Speaker 10: four tech companies, and I'll just lay them out.
25:55
Speaker 4: You know, Microsoft Alphabet parent or Google parent, Alphabet AMZ
26:00
Speaker 4: on Meta. Those four companies alone account for almost half
26:05
Speaker 4: of spending on artificial intelligence.
26:07
Speaker 10: We've seen it laid out in their earnings.
26:09
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, they're spending on
26:11
Speaker 4: what they believe is the future and what we too
26:13
Speaker 4: believe is going to be a trend that's not only
26:15
Speaker 4: a trend, but is going to turn into revenue and
26:18
Speaker 4: earnings in the future as well.
26:19
Speaker 3: Sir, what kind of phone calls are getting from your
26:21
Speaker 3: clients about this election. Are investors trying to position around it?
26:25
Speaker 3: Are they trying to just trade through it? Ignore it?
26:27
Speaker 9: It?
26:28
Speaker 2: Kind of what kind of discussions are you having?
26:30
Speaker 4: So people got a bit emotional, and you know, for
26:33
Speaker 4: good reason before and around an election. Not just recently,
26:37
Speaker 4: but I would tell you that over the past couple
26:39
Speaker 4: of months, I think it's a little telling. I've gotten
26:41
Speaker 4: calls from clients on both sides of the spectrum, so
26:44
Speaker 4: Democrats and Republicans saying, Okay, if X person wins the
26:48
Speaker 4: election and I want to leave the country, what does
26:51
Speaker 4: that mean for my portfolio?
26:52
Speaker 10: And can we still work together?
26:54
Speaker 4: So emotions, emotions run high, you know, surrounding political elections.
26:58
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, you know, politics
27:01
Speaker 4: really don't have as big an effect on markets as
27:05
Speaker 4: some people tend to believe they do. If you look
27:07
Speaker 4: at any which scenario over history, a blue sweep, a
27:11
Speaker 4: red sweep, ridlock you know, ex party in office with
27:16
Speaker 4: the other, you know, controlling Congress and the Senate, there's
27:20
Speaker 4: really no statistically significant outcome. When you try to compare
27:25
Speaker 4: different you know, representations of DC and the government to
27:29
Speaker 4: stock market returns.
27:30
Speaker 10: It really doesn't matter all that much.
27:32
Speaker 4: Really, what matters is the federal reserve and interest rates
27:36
Speaker 4: and the economy, which frankly, the president doesn't have as
27:40
Speaker 4: much control as many people like to believe it to.
27:43
Speaker 4: We actually had an event this this.
27:45
Speaker 12: Week where you know, the question was posed to the attendees,
27:50
Speaker 12: who do you think had you know, the worst market
27:54
Speaker 12: returns during their presidency and who had the best.
27:57
Speaker 4: I don't know if you want to take a crack
27:58
Speaker 4: at it, but most people didn't know the answer.
28:01
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think just goes God. As you're
28:06
Speaker 7: thinking about this election and pushing forward. I mean, you're
28:09
Speaker 7: in private wealth management. This is a very important space.
28:12
Speaker 7: What is your island right now? If you all are
28:14
Speaker 7: kind of not focusing as much on the election to
28:17
Speaker 7: determine returns.
28:18
Speaker 4: So so love when it comes to planning surrounding policy. Yes,
28:23
Speaker 4: in the private wealth space, when you're working with high
28:26
Speaker 4: net worth individuals, family offices, there are potential policy changes
28:31
Speaker 4: that could pose.
28:33
Speaker 10: You know, significant change for clients.
28:35
Speaker 4: So when it comes to the estate tax, for example,
28:39
Speaker 4: right now, the way the law is right and is
28:40
Speaker 4: at the end of next year, the current law is
28:43
Speaker 4: going to sunset, and the estate tax the exemption amount
28:47
Speaker 4: is going to be half.
28:48
Speaker 10: Going to be cut in half.
28:49
Speaker 4: So yes, we're seeing We're doing a lot of planning
28:51
Speaker 4: surrounding that, working with our.
28:53
Speaker 10: Clients and state attorneys to make sure that they're prepared.
28:56
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, what we're really
28:57
Speaker 4: focused on is technolology, which we discussed, you know, doing
29:03
Speaker 4: tax planning a head ahead of your end and then
29:06
Speaker 4: just when it comes to markets, looking at the economic.
29:08
Speaker 10: Data, looking at the trend for interest rates.
29:10
Speaker 4: Look, we're going to get a Federal Reserve meeting next week,
29:13
Speaker 4: but our economists expect that we'll see another fifty basis
29:16
Speaker 4: points of cuts by the end of the year, another
29:18
Speaker 4: one hundred based points of cuts next year. So if
29:21
Speaker 4: we know cash rates are coming down, interest rates are
29:23
Speaker 4: coming down, making sure that you know our clients aren't
29:27
Speaker 4: sitting in cash or just short dated treasury bonds for example,
29:31
Speaker 4: because at the end of the day, reinvestment risk is
29:33
Speaker 4: an issue right now.
29:34
Speaker 2: Sarah, thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate
29:37
Speaker 2: chatting with you.
29:37
Speaker 3: Sarah Ponsek, she's the first vice president of wealth management
29:40
Speaker 3: at UBS Private Wealth Management. She's located in Bolca Raton, Florida.
29:47
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
29:50
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
29:54
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live
29:57
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship York station just Say
30:01
Speaker 1: Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
30:05
Speaker 3: It's good to Washington because we've got an election next
30:07
Speaker 3: week and there aren't many people in Washington I want
30:10
Speaker 3: to talk to.
30:11
Speaker 2: One of them is Nathan Dean. He knows what's going on.
30:13
Speaker 3: Then we always get the straight poop from Nathan. Nathan's
30:16
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst. So Nathan, you're down there,
30:19
Speaker 3: You're hip deep and all that Washington stuff and all
30:23
Speaker 3: the you know, the Innundia and all the talk and
30:25
Speaker 3: all the back talk, back office talk and all the
30:27
Speaker 3: type of thing. What's the feeling in DC about how
30:29
Speaker 3: this thing may break on Tuesday?
30:32
Speaker 13: Yeah, So, you know, I don't think anybody really has
30:34
Speaker 13: any good prediction of how things are going to break
30:36
Speaker 13: outside of the Senate race. And the reason why we're
30:38
Speaker 13: saying the Senate races is because you know, this is
30:41
Speaker 13: a very difficult race for the Democrats that are defending
30:43
Speaker 13: twenty three of the thirty four seats that are open
30:45
Speaker 13: at the moment, and a lot of those are in
30:46
Speaker 13: purple states or in Trump's states. So if you're a
30:49
Speaker 13: Senator Shery Brown, who's the Senate Banking chairman, or Senator
30:52
Speaker 13: John Tester in Ohio and then Montana, those are races
30:55
Speaker 13: that the Democrats have to win if they want to
30:57
Speaker 13: keep the Senate. Now why do we care about the Senate? Well,
31:00
Speaker 13: the Senate obviously gets you confirmation of judges, but also
31:03
Speaker 13: regulatory leaders So if the Republicans take the Senate and
31:06
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris wins, they can effectively block and jam a
31:09
Speaker 13: lot of the new regulatory leadership that she wants to
31:11
Speaker 13: put in place. So this could mean that Lena Khan
31:14
Speaker 13: at the Federal Training Commissioner, Gary Ginzler at the SEC
31:17
Speaker 13: sticks around for a little bit longer. If President Trump wins,
31:19
Speaker 13: then a deregulatory effort can move much quicker. So outside
31:22
Speaker 13: of the Senate race, everything else is too close to tell.
31:26
Speaker 7: What's the latest on swing states?
31:29
Speaker 13: So obviously I think you know what we're telling everybody
31:31
Speaker 13: is that it comes down to Pennsylvania. I mean, if
31:32
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, the odds of her winning
31:35
Speaker 13: the presidency is very slim. So you know, we've been
31:38
Speaker 13: working with some European clients, for example, and as they
31:41
Speaker 13: come into the office, say eight or nine am, you know,
31:43
Speaker 13: central European time, look for the results in Philadelphia and
31:46
Speaker 13: Pittsburgh to really try and give you an indication of
31:49
Speaker 13: who's going to be winning this election. But I will
31:51
Speaker 13: say is that, you know, the general thought here is
31:54
Speaker 13: is that you know, there's this idea that the election
31:56
Speaker 13: could go you know, for weeks. We just don't know.
31:59
Speaker 13: But I also think there's a lot of folks out
32:01
Speaker 13: there that are thinking that this at least we could
32:03
Speaker 13: get an indication of who the president is, maybe not
32:06
Speaker 13: officially and maybe not called by the agencies and so
32:09
Speaker 13: forth the news organizations, but we could at least get
32:11
Speaker 13: an indication of who the president is going to be
32:13
Speaker 13: on Wednesday and Thursday. So you know, from a market perspective,
32:16
Speaker 13: we're going to be looking to see for when those
32:18
Speaker 13: state results start coming in. And obviously it's the one
32:21
Speaker 13: hundred thousand folks in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada
32:25
Speaker 13: and Michigan and so forth that are ultimately going to
32:27
Speaker 13: decide who.
32:27
Speaker 2: The president is.
32:28
Speaker 7: Speaking of election calls, what is the expectation for how
32:31
Speaker 7: long it could potentially take this election to be called?
32:35
Speaker 13: Well, look it really, you know, this is the challenge
32:37
Speaker 13: of the American voter system is that each state has
32:40
Speaker 13: their own processes and procedures. I mean, certain states can't
32:42
Speaker 13: start counting your early ballots until the polls close, for example,
32:46
Speaker 13: and so we just don't know how long it's going
32:48
Speaker 13: to take. However, what we can say is is that,
32:51
Speaker 13: you know, we should get an indication of how things
32:55
Speaker 13: are going. And when you look at the swing states
32:57
Speaker 13: in particular, you know you have a good mix of
33:00
Speaker 13: those that are on the East coast and those are
33:02
Speaker 13: on the west coast Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada
33:05
Speaker 13: and so forth like that. Put just going back to
33:07
Speaker 13: what I said earlier, for Vice President Kamala Harris, it
33:09
Speaker 13: comes down to Pennsylvania. If she can't win Pennsylvania, then
33:13
Speaker 13: chances are of Michigan and Wisconsin are in play and
33:16
Speaker 13: she loses the presidency. So again we would just we're
33:19
Speaker 13: really paying attention to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh these days.
33:22
Speaker 3: Nathan, I say this affectionately a policy geek, a wonk
33:25
Speaker 3: You've got some great research out there that says, hey,
33:28
Speaker 3: here's what happens to a couple of key industries from
33:30
Speaker 3: a regulatory perspective, if Harris wins or Trump wins, what
33:34
Speaker 3: are the two one, or two or three things that
33:36
Speaker 3: you're really looking at or could be in play depending
33:39
Speaker 3: upon who gets in office.
33:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, So if you're.
33:41
Speaker 13: Trying to think of like catalyst industries, meaning that the
33:44
Speaker 13: election means one substantial catalyst or the other, the investment
33:47
Speaker 13: banks are the perfect thing to come into mind because
33:49
Speaker 13: there's this rule out there called the Bosle three end game. Now,
33:51
Speaker 13: if Kamala Harris wins, banks are going to look around
33:54
Speaker 13: a nine percent capital increase starting in probably twenty twenty six.
33:57
Speaker 13: If President Trump wins, that rule, I think effect goes away.
34:01
Speaker 13: Renewables is certain. Is another thing because Eric, you know,
34:04
Speaker 13: in the prior segment mentioned that taxes could go up
34:06
Speaker 13: next year. The Trump Air tax cuts expire for individuals
34:09
Speaker 13: at the end of twenty twenty five, and Congress and
34:11
Speaker 13: the President is going to have to figure out how
34:13
Speaker 13: to pay over four trillion dollars to keep those tax
34:16
Speaker 13: cuts going. And so is the Inflation Reduction Act at play.
34:19
Speaker 13: That's very important to the renewable industry, so something to
34:21
Speaker 13: keep in mind. And finally, big tech. You know, there's
34:24
Speaker 13: this stereotypical idea out there that Republicans equal good for
34:28
Speaker 13: big business, and so if President Trump wins, you know,
34:31
Speaker 13: big tech in particular could be it could be a
34:34
Speaker 13: positive in terms of ease of regulation and enforcement. But
34:36
Speaker 13: there's this idea of economic populism going through the Republican
34:39
Speaker 13: Party right now and a lot of scrutiny on big
34:41
Speaker 13: tech that could also be in play. So if you're
34:43
Speaker 13: in the big tech space, you know, and the Federal
34:45
Speaker 13: Trade Commission in the DOJ is investigating you, there could
34:48
Speaker 13: be some pretty tough investigations coming, no matter whom mens
34:51
Speaker 13: the presidency.
34:52
Speaker 7: Hey, Nathan, I know we're on our first day of November,
34:54
Speaker 7: but there's always talk about the October surprise. Is that
34:57
Speaker 7: something that we saw.
34:59
Speaker 2: I don't think so.
35:00
Speaker 13: I mean, you know, one thing that we've been leaning
35:02
Speaker 13: on is that there's not many people out there who
35:04
Speaker 13: are undecided. If you looked at the charts, these charts
35:07
Speaker 13: are on the terminal, you know, you're looking at somewhere
35:09
Speaker 13: between point five and one percent of the undecided popular
35:12
Speaker 13: or the independent population out there, they're still undecided. And
35:15
Speaker 13: so this race, in our opinion, has always been about,
35:17
Speaker 13: you know, Vice President kam Haaris versus President Trump versus
35:20
Speaker 13: the couch. And if people get off the couch and
35:22
Speaker 13: they vote, then Vice President most likely wins. If people
35:24
Speaker 13: stay on the couch and they don't vote, then President
35:27
Speaker 13: Trump could win. So it's more more about a turnout
35:30
Speaker 13: rather than an October surprise.
35:31
Speaker 2: And I really don't.
35:32
Speaker 13: Think we've seen anything that a really changed voters' minds
35:35
Speaker 13: in October. But for the question is was there an
35:38
Speaker 13: October surprise that we keep people from voting?
35:40
Speaker 2: We just still don't know yet.
35:41
Speaker 3: All Right, Nathan, thank you so much for joining us.
35:43
Speaker 3: As always, Nathan Deane, he's the senior policy annost for
35:45
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence. He's down in Washington, DC. You can see
35:48
Speaker 3: his research just go to b I go and he's
35:51
Speaker 3: got a lot of great research out there about the
35:53
Speaker 3: different scenarios under each type of election scenario, Harris versus
35:57
Speaker 3: Trump versus split Congress.
35:59
Speaker 2: And he's got got a lot of great researchers.
36:01
Speaker 3: About which industries might be impact us to take a
36:04
Speaker 3: look at that. All right, folks, speaking of the election,
36:06
Speaker 3: join US for complete coverage of US election results Tuesday night.
36:09
Speaker 3: It kicks off a five pm Eastern with a special
36:11
Speaker 3: two hour edition of Balance of Power, followed by Coast
36:15
Speaker 3: to Coast Team Bloomberg Team coverage at seven pm. Get
36:19
Speaker 3: live election results and analysis with context Tuesday night on
36:23
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio, Television and the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel.
36:27
Speaker 2: So we got you covered there.
36:28
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36:36
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