Latest / The House Never Wins / NFL Week 6 2026: Picks, Week 5 Recap and Full Betting Card | The House Never Wins #113

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NFL Week 6 2026: Picks, Week 5 Recap and Full Betting Card | The House Never Wins #113 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Welcome back to the house
• 0:02
  - never wins, so we got another week of
• 0:05
  - NFL
• 0:06
  - chaos
• 0:07
  - to break down, and week five deliver pretty
• 0:10
  - much
• 0:11
  - everything, Pau.
• 0:13
  - A last second field goal in London, an
• 0:17
  - undefeated team surviving
• 0:19
  - a divisional thriller, a huge
• 0:22
  - packers win over the bears,
• 0:25
  - and
• 0:26
  - a tight that Washington
• 0:28
  - fans are probably still trying to to process,
• 0:31
  - Pau. Well... Hi, Bobby. I'm so happy to
• 0:34
  - be with you here. And the betting lessons
• 0:37
  - were just as interesting, Fabi. The Patriots
• 0:40
  - put up 45 points after struggling earlier in
• 0:45
  - the season.
• 0:46
  - The lions finally show what their offense can
• 0:50
  - do when everything clicks.
• 0:53
  - And the Eagles loves the game, they have
• 0:55
  - a a real chance to win. We're reviewing
• 0:59
  - the major week five results, Pau, looking at
• 1:03
  - which teams deserve
• 1:05
  - more respect and which ones are give us
• 1:09
  - give us a reasons to, like, to worry.
• 1:12
  - So then
• 1:13
  - we'll go through week six
• 1:15
  - starting with Thursday
• 1:17
  - night, continuing through Monday night
• 1:20
  - football. And we'll also separate the teams we
• 1:23
  - actually want to back from the teams we
• 1:25
  - simply expect to win.
• 1:27
  - Those aren't always the same thing, Fabia. Favorite
• 1:30
  - team win and still be a terrible
• 1:34
  - bet if the price is too high. Exactly.
• 1:37
  - Let's get into it. Yes. Let's start with
• 1:40
  - the game of the week. San Francisco
• 1:43
  - beat Seattle thirty two twenty nine, moving to
• 1:47
  - five o. This was a massive divisional match
• 1:51
  - up, and it show why the forty niners
• 1:54
  - have been one of the most difficult teams
• 1:56
  - to bet this season.
• 2:00
  - Seattle was right there, Pau. They had opportunities
• 2:04
  - to win that San Francisco
• 2:06
  - made the decisive plays
• 2:08
  - late.
• 2:09
  - The forty niners also survived
• 2:12
  - a game in which the sea... The Seahawks
• 2:15
  - have enough offensive
• 2:17
  - production
• 2:18
  - to make it uncomfortable
• 2:19
  - until the end. And for bettors, Fabi, this
• 2:22
  - is where we need to be careful with
• 2:24
  - narratives
• 2:25
  - and undefeated team isn't automatically
• 2:28
  - a good bet every week. San Francisco has
• 2:32
  - earned respect, yes, But we need to see
• 2:35
  - the price and the matchup before backing them.
• 2:38
  - So Seattle also shouldn't be dismissed because of
• 2:41
  - one close loss.
• 2:43
  - The Seahawks pushed the league's last undefeated team
• 2:47
  - to the limit.
• 2:51
  - Yes. And the bigger question is whether Seattle
• 2:55
  - can recover quickly
• 2:56
  - because they have another difficult test on Thursday
• 3:00
  - the night against
• 3:01
  - Denver.
• 3:03
  - Betting takeaway, San Francisco
• 3:05
  - remains a legitimate
• 3:07
  - contender, but Seattle's ability to
• 3:10
  - compete in high pressure games makes it makes
• 3:14
  - it week five matchup
• 3:16
  - more interesting
• 3:18
  - than a simple action
• 3:20
  - to a final score suggestion.
• 3:23
  - So story two, Jacksonville
• 3:26
  - shocks
• 3:27
  - Philadelphia
• 3:28
  - in London.
• 3:29
  - The Jacksonville
• 3:30
  - Jaguars
• 3:31
  - beat the Philadelphia Eagles 1917.
• 3:35
  - Thanks to Cam's little incredible
• 3:38
  - 57
• 3:39
  - yards
• 3:40
  - field goal as
• 3:41
  - a time spire. And that finish was wild,
• 3:45
  - Bobby. Trevor Lawrence
• 3:46
  - threw for 331
• 3:49
  - yards and two touchdowns,
• 3:51
  - and Jacksonville moved to four one. The Eagles,
• 3:55
  - meanwhile,
• 3:56
  - dropped
• 3:57
  - two three.
• 3:58
  - Philadelphia's
• 3:59
  - problems weren't just about losing a close game,
• 4:03
  - Pau.
• 4:04
  - The offense struggle to establish the running game
• 4:08
  - finishing with only 22
• 4:10
  - rushing yards. According to Reuters,
• 4:13
  - that's a worrying number for a team that
• 4:17
  - needs balance
• 4:18
  - to make it passing game work
• 4:21
  - consistently. And Jacksonville deserves credit, Fabi, but I
• 4:25
  - wouldn't ignore the mistakes.
• 4:27
  - The Jaguars committed a lot of penalties and
• 4:31
  - had red zone opportunities
• 4:33
  - that they failed to convert. So they won
• 4:36
  - because they made a huge play at the
• 4:40
  - end, not because everything was clean.
• 4:45
  - So, Pau, do we trust
• 4:48
  - Jacksonville
• 4:49
  - now? Hi, Fabi. More than we did a
• 4:52
  - few weeks ago,
• 4:53
  - yes, but I'm not automatically
• 4:56
  - betting them as a favorite just because they
• 4:58
  - are four one.
• 5:00
  - I want to see whether the offense can
• 5:02
  - keep producing
• 5:04
  - and whether the penalties become less of a
• 5:07
  - problem.
• 5:08
  - Betting takeaway,
• 5:10
  - Jacksonville is going credibility
• 5:12
  - while Philadelphia needs to show that its offense
• 5:16
  - can function more consistently.
• 5:18
  - So, don't automatically
• 5:20
  - fade the Eagles
• 5:22
  - but don't price them as an elite
• 5:25
  - team until the performance
• 5:27
  - improves. So, the packer delivered one of the
• 5:31
  - most convincing performance of the weekend, Fabi, betting
• 5:35
  - the verse thirty one seven.
• 5:37
  - Jordan Love threw for 367
• 5:41
  - yards and two touchdowns connecting with Christian Watson
• 5:46
  - on two long scoring plays.
• 5:48
  - Green base defense
• 5:50
  - also forced
• 5:51
  - five turnovers,
• 5:53
  - Vavi.
• 5:56
  - That's the kind of performance that changed the
• 5:59
  - conversation around a team. Green Bay attacked Chicago
• 6:02
  - vertically
• 6:04
  - and it keep putting pressure on the Bears
• 6:06
  - to respond. And Chicago's quarterback situation was a
• 6:10
  - major factor, Fabi. Tyson Baden threw two interceptions
• 6:15
  - before being replaced by by Case Kennon
• 6:18
  - in the fourth quarter.
• 6:19
  - So the Bears couldn't sustain
• 6:22
  - their offense, and the turnovers
• 6:24
  - made the game even harder
• 6:27
  - to recover pro.
• 6:31
  - Yes, Pau. The parkers looked dangerous, but there's
• 6:34
  - a difference
• 6:36
  - between
• 6:37
  - dominating
• 6:37
  - a rival and proving
• 6:40
  - that you can consistently
• 6:41
  - beat strong teams.
• 6:43
  - We still need to see Green Bay perform
• 6:46
  - at that level against different styles of opponents.
• 6:51
  - Agreed, Favi. But the passing game deserves credit.
• 6:54
  - When Love connects on deep throws like that,
• 6:58
  - defense have to respect the entire field
• 7:01
  - and that opens up opportunities
• 7:03
  - underneath.
• 7:04
  - So betting takeaway,
• 7:06
  - green base offense looks dangerous when the deep
• 7:10
  - passing game is working and Chicago's next game
• 7:14
  - depends heavily
• 7:15
  - on its quarterback
• 7:17
  - situation.
• 7:20
  - And Chicago's
• 7:22
  - next game depends heavily on its quarterback situation.
• 7:26
  - So injury and starter news matter before
• 7:30
  - placing a Wager.
• 7:32
  - Now let's talk about New England. New England
• 7:35
  - beat the Raiders forty five seventeen and Drake,
• 7:39
  - Maine had one of the best performance
• 7:42
  - of the week, Bob. Yes. Well, he made
• 7:44
  - through for 374
• 7:46
  - yards and four touchdowns,
• 7:49
  - added a rushing touchdown, and finished the game
• 7:52
  - without an interception.
• 7:54
  - That was a huge turnaround after a difficult
• 7:58
  - start to the season. This is exactly
• 8:02
  - why we shouldn't make betting decisions
• 8:04
  - based only on previous week results.
• 8:08
  - Things change,
• 8:09
  - injuries matter, and sometimes
• 8:12
  - an offensive
• 8:13
  - simply finds it rhythm. But let's not over
• 8:17
  - correct, Fabi. One big offensive performance
• 8:21
  - doesn't mean New England is suddenly going to
• 8:24
  - score 40 points every week. The matchup against
• 8:27
  - Las Vegas was favorable
• 8:29
  - and the patriots
• 8:31
  - still have injury concerns. Yes. Their next game
• 8:35
  - against the jets, it's interesting because the patriots
• 8:38
  - would be expected to win.
• 8:41
  - That's where we find out whether the improvement
• 8:44
  - is sustainable.
• 8:45
  - Now in New England, it's worth monitoring, but
• 8:49
  - a large spread can raise
• 8:52
  - that value
• 8:55
  - of backing a team that just had a
• 8:58
  - breakout
• 8:59
  - game. The Lions beat Arizona forty five twenty
• 9:02
  - one. Vahindis
• 9:04
  - was the offensive performance Detroit needed.
• 9:08
  - Jared Goff threw three touchdown passes and added
• 9:11
  - a rushing touchdown,
• 9:13
  - while Jamir Gibbs rushed for a 151
• 9:17
  - yards and two scores. Detroit's
• 9:20
  - offense looked
• 9:21
  - explosive
• 9:22
  - again. Defense also play better, especially early in
• 9:26
  - the game. That matters, Pau, because
• 9:29
  - Detroit doesn't need to win every week by
• 9:33
  - scoring
• 9:34
  - 40 plus points if the defense can help
• 9:37
  - create a more comfortable game script. Yes. The
• 9:41
  - problem, Fabi, is that Detroit is one of
• 9:44
  - buying week six. We won't get an immediate
• 9:47
  - follow-up performance, so the market will have time
• 9:51
  - to react to the win. And betters
• 9:54
  - need to remember that a blowout against Arizona
• 9:57
  - doesn't automatically tell us how Detroit will performance
• 10:00
  - again in a strong opponent.
• 10:03
  - Betting takeaway, Detroit's
• 10:05
  - offense looks dangerous again, but
• 10:09
  - avoid treating one big win as a proof
• 10:12
  - that every offensive issue has disappeared.
• 10:16
  - Now the Vikings
• 10:18
  - beat the Saints
• 10:20
  - twenty three thirteen
• 10:22
  - to move
• 10:24
  - move to five and o. Minnesota's
• 10:27
  - defense deserves a lot of credit, Fabi. The
• 10:30
  - Vikings limit New Orleans to a 142
• 10:34
  - total yards, while Kyle Murry
• 10:37
  - threw for 229
• 10:39
  - yards and a touchdown.
• 10:41
  - Aaron Jones added a 113
• 10:44
  - rushing yards. That's an important combination, Pau. A
• 10:48
  - quarterback
• 10:49
  - who can make the lays,
• 10:51
  - a running game that contributes,
• 10:54
  - and a defense that can control the opponent.
• 10:58
  - Minnesota has a bye in week six, which
• 11:01
  - gives the team time to recover,
• 11:04
  - but it also means we won't immediately
• 11:07
  - see whether the current level is sustainable.
• 11:11
  - That's in takeaway Minnesota deserves respect as an
• 11:14
  - unbeaten team
• 11:16
  - particularly
• 11:17
  - because it isn't the relying on just one
• 11:20
  - part of the roster, Fabi.
• 11:23
  - Still, we should evaluate future matchups
• 11:26
  - rather than blindly
• 11:28
  - betting the record.
• 11:31
  - Now, let's talk about one of the strangest
• 11:34
  - endings came in the Giants' commanders game which
• 11:38
  - finished
• 11:39
  - 2727,
• 11:42
  - Fabi. Washington had a chance to win overtime
• 11:45
  - but mishandled
• 11:47
  - the clock after getting into field goal range.
• 11:51
  - Head coach Dan Quinn took responsibility
• 11:54
  - for the decision making.
• 11:58
  - And
• 11:59
  - Jaden Daniels was returning from an injury.
• 12:03
  - So getting him back on the field was
• 12:06
  - positive, Pau. But the ending was a reminder
• 12:09
  - that football isn't just about talent.
• 12:13
  - Situational
• 12:14
  - decisions
• 12:15
  - matter. Yes. And the Giants will take the
• 12:18
  - tie, but
• 12:19
  - both teams left opportunities
• 12:21
  - on the field. When we are looking at
• 12:24
  - future betting lines,
• 12:26
  - I want to know whether Washington can execute
• 12:29
  - better in closest
• 12:31
  - gains.
• 12:32
  - So, betting takeaway,
• 12:34
  - don't treat the tie as proof that both
• 12:38
  - teams are equally strong.
• 12:40
  - Look at quarterback's
• 12:41
  - health,
• 12:42
  - defensive performance,
• 12:44
  - and how each team handles late game situations.
• 12:50
  - Let's run through the rest of the results
• 12:53
  - before
• 12:54
  - we turn the page to week six.
• 12:57
  - Buccaneers
• 12:58
  - 24,
• 12:59
  - cowboy
• 13:00
  - 16.
• 13:01
  - Tampa Bay opponent week five with a road
• 13:05
  - with over Dallas.
• 13:07
  - Bengals
• 13:08
  - 31,
• 13:09
  - Dolphins, 24. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns pass,
• 13:13
  - and Cincinnati's
• 13:15
  - streak.
• 13:17
  - Jets 17 and browns 12. New York found
• 13:21
  - a way to win
• 13:23
  - a low scoring game with a Braylon Allen
• 13:27
  - rushing for
• 13:29
  - the go ahead touchdown.
• 13:31
  - Steelers, 34, Colts, 22.
• 13:34
  - Pittsburgh,
• 13:35
  - one behind three, touchdown pass from Aaron
• 13:40
  - Rodgers
• 13:41
  - and a huge performance
• 13:43
  - from Jaylen Warren.
• 13:45
  - Texans 26,
• 13:47
  - titans three.
• 13:48
  - Houston
• 13:49
  - earned its first win of the season with
• 13:52
  - a dominant defensive performance.
• 13:55
  - Broncos
• 13:56
  - 23,
• 13:57
  - Chargers 17,
• 13:59
  - Denver
• 14:00
  - won the four cutter battle,
• 14:02
  - leaving the chargers
• 14:04
  - winless.
• 14:05
  - Ravens 30, Falcons 23,
• 14:08
  - Baltimore
• 14:09
  - won in overtime.
• 14:11
  - Bills at Rams.
• 14:13
  - Bills win in overtime, pal.
• 14:17
  - Yes. The big picture is that week five
• 14:20
  - gave us a clearer view of some teams,
• 14:22
  - Bobby, but there are still questions.
• 14:25
  - New England looks better.
• 14:27
  - Green Bay looked explosive,
• 14:29
  - Minnesota
• 14:30
  - remains unbeaten,
• 14:32
  - and the Chargers and Titans are still searching
• 14:35
  - for answers.
• 14:38
  - Now let's look at at week six, Pau.
• 14:41
  - We start Thursday the ninth, and this is
• 14:44
  - a matchup where the spread is small enough
• 14:48
  - that the detail
• 14:49
  - really
• 14:50
  - matters.
• 14:52
  - Seattle
• 14:53
  - travels to Denver
• 14:54
  - after losing a close game to San Francisco.
• 14:58
  - Denver is coming off a twenty three seventeen
• 15:03
  - win over the chargers.
• 15:05
  - Both teams enter at three
• 15:08
  - two, and
• 15:10
  - the early market makes Seattle a slight favorite.
• 15:14
  - And then the key question for Seattle is
• 15:17
  - turnovers, Fabi. The Seahawks had opportunities
• 15:20
  - against San Francisco,
• 15:22
  - but costly mistakes helped the 40 convert those
• 15:26
  - opportunities
• 15:27
  - into points.
• 15:29
  - So Sam Darnold
• 15:31
  - needs to protect
• 15:32
  - the ball. Cielo has shown it can move
• 15:35
  - the offense,
• 15:37
  - but giveaways
• 15:38
  - make it difficult to finish games against quality
• 15:41
  - opponents.
• 15:42
  - Denver's
• 15:43
  - offense
• 15:44
  - has been inconsistent,
• 15:46
  - and head coach Sean Payton took over play
• 15:50
  - calling duties
• 15:51
  - last week.
• 15:52
  - The Broncos still
• 15:54
  - won, but they only managed 224
• 15:57
  - total yards against the chargers' foul. That makes
• 16:01
  - me question about backing Denver outright.
• 16:05
  - The defense can keep the game close, but
• 16:08
  - the offense needs to do more if the
• 16:10
  - Broncos are going to
• 16:12
  - beat a Seattle team with a strong defense
• 16:16
  - power. Seattle on the money line rather than
• 16:19
  - lying the spread, Bobby. The Seahawks have the
• 16:22
  - offensive
• 16:23
  - upside to win, but Denver's
• 16:25
  - home field advantage
• 16:27
  - and defensive ability make a close game very,
• 16:31
  - very possible.
• 16:33
  - I'm more interested in the under 42.5
• 16:37
  - provide the line states around that number.
• 16:41
  - Both defense can create problems, Pau, and Denver's
• 16:45
  - offense hasn't been consistent
• 16:47
  - enough for me to expect a high scoring
• 16:51
  - game. Here, the risk with the under is
• 16:54
  - that turnovers create short fields or one different
• 16:58
  - scores,
• 16:59
  - so that's always worth remembering
• 17:02
  - when backing a low total.
• 17:04
  - Our early leans are, for me, Seahawks
• 17:09
  - Moneyline.
• 17:12
  - For me, under 42.5
• 17:15
  - points, Pau.
• 17:17
  - Now
• 17:18
  - this is an interesting
• 17:20
  - AFC
• 17:21
  - South matchup.
• 17:22
  - Jacksonville,
• 17:23
  - it's coming off that dramatic
• 17:26
  - win over Philadelphia,
• 17:28
  - while Houston finally got his
• 17:31
  - first win of the season
• 17:33
  - with a twenty six
• 17:35
  - three victory over Tennessee. The Texans' defense look
• 17:39
  - much better against the titans.
• 17:41
  - They pressure
• 17:42
  - Cam Ward limited Tennessee's
• 17:45
  - offense, and control the game. But we need
• 17:48
  - to be careful about using that performance
• 17:51
  - as the only measure of Houston's quality. Tennessee
• 17:55
  - is still winless.
• 17:57
  - Now, Pau, Jacksonville
• 17:59
  - has the more convincing
• 18:01
  - overall record at four one yards and two
• 18:05
  - touchdowns
• 18:06
  - in London,
• 18:07
  - but the Jaguars still need to clean up
• 18:10
  - their penalties
• 18:11
  - and red zone
• 18:13
  - execution. At Jawors, minus 2.5,
• 18:16
  - we are not asking Jacksonville to win by
• 18:19
  - a huge margin.
• 18:21
  - The question is whether its offense can maintain
• 18:24
  - its production
• 18:25
  - against a Houston defense that just had its
• 18:28
  - best game of the season.
• 18:31
  - Eileen Jawors
• 18:32
  - minus 2.5,
• 18:34
  - but I don't love it if the money
• 18:37
  - line moves higher. Oh, I'd rather consider
• 18:40
  - the under 43.5.
• 18:43
  - Houston's
• 18:44
  - offense has a struggle for much of the
• 18:47
  - season,
• 18:48
  - and its defense could keep the game competitive.
• 18:51
  - Jacksonville
• 18:52
  - might win without turning this into a shutout
• 18:56
  - or early links.
• 18:58
  - Pause. Yeah. It was minus two point point
• 19:00
  - five.
• 19:03
  - For me, under 43.5
• 19:07
  - points. Okay.
• 19:08
  - Confidence,
• 19:10
  - medium
• 19:11
  - medium low. Okay. I like it. Now let's
• 19:13
  - move to Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia
• 19:17
  - Eagles.
• 19:18
  - This might be one of the most interesting
• 19:20
  - games of the week because Philadelphia
• 19:23
  - has lost
• 19:24
  - three of the... Its first five games
• 19:27
  - and is now a short favorite
• 19:29
  - against Carolina.
• 19:31
  - The Eagles 1917
• 19:33
  - lost to Jacksonville
• 19:35
  - exposed some offensive concerns.
• 19:38
  - They managed only 22
• 19:40
  - rushing yards, and that puts more pressure on
• 19:44
  - Jalen Hurts and the passing game. But I
• 19:47
  - don't want to overreact to one loss. Philadelphia
• 19:51
  - still has enough talent to win this matchup,
• 19:54
  - especially
• 19:55
  - at home, Pavi. The question is whether the
• 19:57
  - offense can get back to its normal level.
• 20:01
  - Carolina can make games uncomfortable, Pau. And if
• 20:04
  - Philadelphia continues to struggle on early downs, the
• 20:08
  - Panthers could stay close
• 20:10
  - throughout the game. At Eagles minus 1.5,
• 20:14
  - the price isn't asking for a blowout.
• 20:17
  - I'm leaning Eagles money line, but only if
• 20:21
  - the injury reports
• 20:22
  - doesn't reveal
• 20:24
  - additional, like, major problems. Okay. I'm taking Fabi
• 20:28
  - Panthers
• 20:29
  - plus 1.5
• 20:31
  - as the value side.
• 20:32
  - The market is still giving Philadelphia
• 20:35
  - the benefit of the doubt, and I want
• 20:38
  - to see the Eagles fix their offensive issues
• 20:41
  - before I pay to back them. So our
• 20:44
  - earnings
• 20:45
  - for you, Fabi.
• 20:49
  - Eagles money line. For me, Panthers
• 20:51
  - plus 1.5
• 20:54
  - and confidence
• 20:55
  - low
• 20:56
  - low medium. This is a game to revisit
• 20:59
  - after the injury report.
• 21:06
  - Now Baltimore
• 21:07
  - won thirty twenty three in overtime
• 21:11
  - against
• 21:12
  - Atlanta.
• 21:13
  - Cleveland lost seventeen twelve to the Jets,
• 21:16
  - so the Ravens come to this matchup with
• 21:20
  - the better recent results. Baltimore's
• 21:22
  - offense has shown it can produce, but over
• 21:25
  - timing wins can make a team look more
• 21:28
  - comfortable
• 21:29
  - than it actually was for most of the
• 21:32
  - game.
• 21:32
  - We need to evaluate, Fabi, how the Ravens
• 21:36
  - perform in over four quarters.
• 21:39
  - Cleveland,
• 21:39
  - meanwhile,
• 21:40
  - was competitive
• 21:42
  - against New York. The Browns defense can keep
• 21:45
  - games close, but their offense
• 21:48
  - need to be more consistent.
• 21:53
  - Okay, Pau. My early lead, it's a ravens
• 21:57
  - to win,
• 21:58
  - but I will avoid a large spread. Okay?
• 22:01
  - We need the actual line before deciding whether
• 22:04
  - Baltimore
• 22:05
  - offers betting
• 22:07
  - volume. Okay, Bobby. I agree.
• 22:09
  - Same here. If the market ask us to
• 22:13
  - lay too many points against a Cleveland defense,
• 22:16
  - that can make things
• 22:18
  - so difficult.
• 22:19
  - I'd rather pass than force a bet. So
• 22:22
  - we're equal
• 22:24
  - money line. Now, let's move to Chicago versus
• 22:27
  - Atlanta
• 22:28
  - Falcons.
• 22:28
  - Chicago is coming off a rough
• 22:31
  - thirty one seven loss to Green Bay, Fabby.
• 22:34
  - Tyson Bachman struggled,
• 22:36
  - throwing two interceptions before being replaced by Case
• 22:40
  - Keenum.
• 22:41
  - The quarterback situation, Pau, is the first team
• 22:44
  - to monitor.
• 22:45
  - If Caleb William is available, Chicago's
• 22:49
  - outlook could be very different
• 22:51
  - from what we saw against
• 22:53
  - the Packers. Atlanta lost 30,
• 22:56
  - 23 in overtime to Baltimore. That result was
• 23:00
  - competitive,
• 23:01
  - but the Falcons couldn't finish the game, Fabi.
• 23:04
  - At home, they have a chance to take
• 23:06
  - advantage
• 23:07
  - of Chicago's uncertainty.
• 23:12
  - My early lean is
• 23:14
  - Atlanta Moneyline,
• 23:15
  - especially if Chicago's quarterback situation
• 23:18
  - remains unsettled.
• 23:20
  - But
• 23:21
  - I'm not betting against the birds
• 23:24
  - until we knew
• 23:26
  - who is starting. Exactly, Fabi. This is a
• 23:29
  - classic injury news game.
• 23:31
  - Don't lock in a pick based and assumptions
• 23:34
  - about the quarterback.
• 23:36
  - So our early leans are...
• 23:39
  - For me, Falcons' moneyline
• 23:41
  - conditional
• 23:42
  - on Chicago's quarterback news. Wait for for the
• 23:45
  - starting quarterback
• 23:46
  - announcement,
• 23:47
  - and the confidence
• 23:49
  - is low. Now the Giants are coming off
• 23:52
  - a twenty seven twenty seven tight against Washington.
• 23:57
  - The New Orleans
• 23:58
  - lost twenty three thirteen to Minnesota,
• 24:02
  - and the Vikings
• 24:03
  - held the Saints to just
• 24:05
  - 142
• 24:07
  - total yards. New York has some momentum
• 24:11
  - from its late comeback against Washington.
• 24:14
  - Even though their games
• 24:16
  - end in attire,
• 24:17
  - the Giants show they can make plays late.
• 24:21
  - But a tie doesn't erase their other issues,
• 24:24
  - Bobby.
• 24:28
  - The Saints need more
• 24:30
  - offensive production, Pau.
• 24:32
  - Against Minnesota,
• 24:33
  - they couldn't consistently
• 24:35
  - move the boat, and
• 24:37
  - that make it hard to trust them against
• 24:41
  - teams that can build
• 24:43
  - an early lead. At Giants minus 1.5,
• 24:47
  - I'm leaning Giants money line.
• 24:49
  - The price is relatively short. At Giants minus
• 24:53
  - 1.5,
• 24:55
  - I'm leaning Giants money line, Fabi.
• 24:57
  - The price is relatively short and New York
• 25:01
  - has shown
• 25:02
  - more offensive life recently. I looked at the
• 25:05
  - under 45.5,
• 25:08
  - although the risk is that New York defense
• 25:11
  - give us explosive plays
• 25:14
  - and turn this into a more open game
• 25:17
  - or early leans power for... Giants money line,
• 25:20
  - Fabi. For me, under 45.5
• 25:23
  - points. My confidence,
• 25:26
  - medium low. Now this is one of the
• 25:29
  - most interesting spreads on the board, Fabi. New
• 25:32
  - England just scored 45 points against the Raiders,
• 25:36
  - while the Jets
• 25:38
  - beat Cleveland
• 25:39
  - 17
• 25:40
  - twelves.
• 25:42
  - Wow. Drake main's performance
• 25:44
  - was
• 25:45
  - excellent,
• 25:46
  - and the Patriots offense finally
• 25:49
  - looked explosive.
• 25:51
  - But a seven and a half point spread
• 25:54
  - is asking us
• 25:55
  - to believe they can keep that momentum
• 25:59
  - going and win
• 26:00
  - comfortably.
• 26:01
  - The Jets have been inconsistent, Fabi, but they
• 26:05
  - did enough defensively
• 26:07
  - against Cleveland
• 26:08
  - and got a strong rushing performance
• 26:11
  - from Braylon Allen.
• 26:13
  - They can try to keep this game on
• 26:16
  - the ground and shorten it.
• 26:18
  - I'm leaning jets plus seven point o five.
• 26:21
  - New England can win, but the spread is
• 26:25
  - big enough that New Year doesn't need to
• 26:27
  - win outright
• 26:28
  - to cash the ticket. Ireland Patriots money line
• 26:32
  - rather than the spread. I trust Fabi New
• 26:35
  - England more to win, but I'm not convinced
• 26:38
  - the margin needs to be
• 26:40
  - eight or more points.
• 26:42
  - So our
• 26:44
  - early innings, Fabi. She adds plus 7.5. And
• 26:46
  - for me, Patriots Money Line and the confidence
• 26:50
  - medium
• 26:51
  - watch New England's injury reports, especially,
• 26:55
  - Fabi, on the offensive line. Now Pittsburgh beat
• 26:59
  - Indianapolis
• 27:01
  - thirty four twenty two, while Tampa Bay beat
• 27:04
  - Dallas
• 27:05
  - twenty four sixteen.
• 27:07
  - Both teams entered this matchup
• 27:09
  - after important win. Rogers
• 27:12
  - threw three touchdown passes for the third straight
• 27:16
  - game, and Jaylen Warren
• 27:18
  - was outstanding
• 27:20
  - against the Colts' Fabi.
• 27:22
  - Pittsburgh
• 27:23
  - offense is finding
• 27:25
  - way to produce
• 27:26
  - and Warren
• 27:27
  - gives them another dimension.
• 27:29
  - Tampa Bay win over Dallas was built around
• 27:33
  - controlling the game
• 27:35
  - and limiting the Cowboys'
• 27:37
  - opportunity, Pau.
• 27:38
  - At home, the Buccaneers
• 27:40
  - could make this a difficult matchup. So the
• 27:43
  - total of 40.5
• 27:45
  - is low, which tell us the market expects
• 27:49
  - a relatively
• 27:50
  - tight lower
• 27:51
  - scoring game. I don't want to assume the
• 27:54
  - under is automatically
• 27:56
  - the right play
• 27:57
  - too because Pittsburgh has been scoring touchdowns consistently.
• 28:01
  - I'm leaning the Steelers
• 28:03
  - money line, but
• 28:05
  - I will be caution about lane points on
• 28:08
  - the road. I'm taking under 40.5
• 28:10
  - as an early in. Both defenses
• 28:13
  - have a chance to keep this game close,
• 28:16
  - but we'll need to watch whether the total
• 28:19
  - moves. So
• 28:21
  - our early season... Or early innings, Fabi.
• 28:26
  - Steelers money line. For me, under 40.5
• 28:30
  - points, Fabi. Confidence,
• 28:32
  - medium low. Now, let's move to Tennessee titans
• 28:36
  - at Indianapolis
• 28:37
  - Colts.
• 28:38
  - Tennessee is o five after losing twenty six
• 28:42
  - three to Houston.
• 28:43
  - The titans
• 28:44
  - struggled to move the ball and gave up
• 28:47
  - a consistent
• 28:48
  - pressure.
• 28:49
  - Indianapolis
• 28:50
  - lost to Pittsburgh, but the Colts still managed
• 28:54
  - 22 points.
• 28:55
  - The bigger concern was their inability to control
• 28:59
  - the game defensively,
• 29:00
  - especially
• 29:01
  - when Pittsburgh found explosive
• 29:04
  - plates. The Colts are the more logical side,
• 29:07
  - but at 6.5
• 29:09
  - spread is not insignificant,
• 29:11
  - Fabi. They need to win by a touchdown
• 29:15
  - to cover. Pau, I'm leaning Colts minus 6.5.
• 29:19
  - Tennessee hasn't shown enough offensive consistency to make
• 29:23
  - me comfortable
• 29:24
  - backing them even with the points. I agree
• 29:27
  - that the... In that Indianapolis
• 29:29
  - is the side, but this is also possible
• 29:32
  - let down spot after a lost party. If
• 29:35
  - the spread climbs,
• 29:37
  - I'd rather look at the money line or
• 29:39
  - skip the game.
• 29:41
  - So our early leans. For me, Colts minus
• 29:44
  - 6.5.
• 29:45
  - For me, Colts MoneyLion with the spread value
• 29:48
  - depending
• 29:49
  - on the final number. Now let's talk about
• 29:52
  - Arizona Cardinals
• 29:53
  - at Los Angeles
• 29:55
  - Rams.
• 29:56
  - The Rams are a big
• 29:59
  - favorite here. With the spread at 12.85
• 30:03
  - points in the early market, Arizona lost
• 30:07
  - forty five twenty one to Detroit, while Los
• 30:10
  - Angeles
• 30:11
  - has
• 30:12
  - its Monday the night game against Buffalo
• 30:15
  - before this matchup. That last point matters, Fabi.
• 30:18
  - We need to see what happened
• 30:20
  - in Bills' Rams before evaluating Los Angeles for
• 30:24
  - week six. Injuries and fatigue
• 30:27
  - can change
• 30:28
  - the outlook.
• 30:29
  - Arizona's defense struggles
• 30:31
  - against Detroit,
• 30:33
  - and the cardinals will need a much better
• 30:36
  - performance
• 30:37
  - to keep this close.
• 30:39
  - But double digit spreads can be dangerous,
• 30:42
  - especially if the favorite gets ahead and starts
• 30:47
  - protecting
• 30:47
  - its players. My early lane is cardinals plus
• 30:51
  - 12.5.
• 30:53
  - I'm not saying Fabio Orsona is the better
• 30:56
  - team. I'm saying a spread that large keeps
• 30:59
  - the underdog room to lose and still cover.
• 31:02
  - I'd consider the over 52.5
• 31:06
  - only
• 31:07
  - after watching the Rams' Monday game. If their
• 31:11
  - offensive is healthy and productive,
• 31:14
  - this matchup could feature plenty of points.
• 31:17
  - If not, the total becomes much less attractive.
• 31:22
  - Cardinals
• 31:22
  - plus 12.5.
• 31:24
  - For me,
• 31:25
  - wait for the Monday's Rams performance
• 31:28
  - before considering
• 31:30
  - the total.
• 31:31
  - My confidence low until the Rams games and
• 31:34
  - injury news are clear.
• 31:37
  - No. Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Fabi.
• 31:40
  - Buffalo plays the Rams on Monday night. So
• 31:43
  - we're going to have fresh information about the
• 31:46
  - Bills before this matchup.
• 31:48
  - The early lines makes Buffalo
• 31:50
  - a 5.5
• 31:52
  - favorite
• 31:53
  - against Las Vegas. The Raiders are coming off
• 31:56
  - a difficult loss to New England,
• 31:59
  - allowing 45 points foul.
• 32:02
  - Their offense also struggle to establish
• 32:05
  - the run,
• 32:06
  - which put extra pressure on the passing game.
• 32:10
  - If Buffalo's
• 32:11
  - offense is functioning
• 32:13
  - well after Monday night, Fabi, I can see
• 32:16
  - the Bills
• 32:17
  - winning this game. But the schedule creates a
• 32:20
  - short turnaround,
• 32:22
  - and we'll need to monitor injuries
• 32:25
  - from the Rams game.... Winning Bills money line,
• 32:28
  - Pau, but I'd be more cautious
• 32:30
  - about laying 5.5
• 32:33
  - points on the road.
• 32:35
  - Las Vegas has enough offensive talent to make
• 32:38
  - a backdoor
• 32:39
  - cover possible. I consider over 52.5
• 32:44
  - if both offense come out of the weekend
• 32:47
  - healthy.
• 32:48
  - But if Buffalo has a physically demanding game
• 32:51
  - against the Rams,
• 32:53
  - I would receive that angle.
• 32:55
  - So our early innings. For me, Bills Moneyline.
• 32:59
  - And for me, over 52.5
• 33:03
  - condition now on Monday's game and injury news.
• 33:07
  - The confidence,
• 33:08
  - low,
• 33:09
  - medium. Now let's talk about Los Angeles
• 33:11
  - Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs.
• 33:14
  - The Chargers are still looking for their first
• 33:17
  - win after losing
• 33:19
  - twenty three seventeen to Denver.
• 33:22
  - Kansas City is a heavy favorite in the
• 33:26
  - early market,
• 33:27
  - laying 8.5
• 33:29
  - points. The Charter's offense has struggled to produce
• 33:32
  - consistently,
• 33:34
  - and the late turnovers against Denver made the
• 33:36
  - difference, Fabi. Kansas City has the opportunity to
• 33:39
  - take advantage,
• 33:40
  - but this is still a divisional
• 33:43
  - game.
• 33:44
  - I don't love laying 8.5
• 33:47
  - points in a divisional
• 33:48
  - matchup about. The Chiefs can win without necessarily
• 33:53
  - covering that number. Hi. I'm leaning Chiefs MoneyLion.
• 33:57
  - I need more evidence that the Chargers can
• 34:01
  - sustain drives before battling them, but I don't
• 34:04
  - want to pay a premium for Kansas City
• 34:06
  - against a divisional
• 34:08
  - opponent.
• 34:09
  - I'm leaning Chargers
• 34:11
  - plus 8.5
• 34:13
  - if the line holds, Pau. They don't need
• 34:16
  - to win it. Just stay within the number.
• 34:19
  - But if their injury reports is bad,
• 34:23
  - that changed things. Chiefs money line.
• 34:26
  - For me, Chargers
• 34:28
  - plus 8.5,
• 34:30
  - and my confidence
• 34:31
  - is medium low. Now this is one of
• 34:34
  - the most intriguing games of week six. Green
• 34:38
  - Bay is coming off a dominant
• 34:40
  - thirty one seven win over Chicago,
• 34:43
  - while Dallas lost twenty four sixteen to Tampa
• 34:47
  - Bay, baby.
• 34:49
  - But Jordan Love looked excellent against the Bears,
• 34:53
  - threw in force 367
• 34:56
  - yards
• 34:57
  - and two touchdowns.
• 34:59
  - The Packers
• 35:00
  - attacked downfield
• 35:01
  - and forced Chicago
• 35:03
  - into mistakes, Bobby. But Dallas, Bobby, is a
• 35:07
  - different test. The Cowboys need to improve after
• 35:10
  - struggling against Tampa Bay, and they have the
• 35:13
  - offensive talent to turn this into a high
• 35:17
  - scoring game. Green Bay is favored by only
• 35:20
  - 1.5
• 35:21
  - points, which make this a near pick and
• 35:24
  - Eileen Packer's
• 35:26
  - money line especially
• 35:28
  - at home. But I want to see how
• 35:30
  - Dallas responds. Okay. I'm leaning over 52.5.
• 35:34
  - Both teams have enough offensive talent to put
• 35:38
  - points on the board,
• 35:40
  - and the market expects a much higher scoring
• 35:43
  - scoring game that the Steelers, Buccaneers, for example,
• 35:46
  - match up. The risk is that Dallas struggles
• 35:49
  - again or Green Bay control the game and
• 35:52
  - slow the pace.
• 35:54
  - Still, this is one of the games where
• 35:57
  - the over has
• 35:59
  - a plausible path.
• 36:01
  - Or early leans. For me, Packers money line.
• 36:04
  - And for me, over 52.5
• 36:07
  - points, and my confidence is medium.
• 36:10
  - Okay. Now Monday night football, Washington
• 36:13
  - commanders
• 36:14
  - at San Francisco forty niners.
• 36:17
  - San Francisco,
• 36:18
  - it's five and o after
• 36:22
  - beating Seattle
• 36:23
  - while Washington
• 36:25
  - comes off that
• 36:27
  - frustrating twenty seven twenty seven tight against the
• 36:30
  - Giants. The forty niners have been better at
• 36:33
  - finishing games, Bobby, and they have the advantage
• 36:36
  - of playing at home. But a 7.5
• 36:40
  - spread
• 36:41
  - is substantial,
• 36:42
  - particularly
• 36:43
  - against
• 36:44
  - Washington team that has Jaden Daniels
• 36:48
  - back in the lineup. But Washington needs to
• 36:51
  - be sharper in late game situations.
• 36:54
  - The coaching mistake against New York cost them
• 36:57
  - a chance to win,
• 37:00
  - and that kind of execution
• 37:02
  - matters against an opponent like San Francisco. Bobby,
• 37:05
  - I'm leaning 40 money line, but I'm not
• 37:08
  - rushing to lay 7.5
• 37:10
  - points.
• 37:11
  - San Francisco can win
• 37:13
  - without covering.
• 37:15
  - Oh, wow. I'm taking
• 37:17
  - commanders
• 37:18
  - plus 7.5
• 37:19
  - as the early value side. The forty niners
• 37:23
  - are the better team right now, but Washington
• 37:25
  - has enough talent to keep this closer than
• 37:28
  - a touchdown
• 37:30
  - or early leans. For me, commanders plus 7.5,
• 37:34
  - and my confidence is medium low.
• 37:37
  - Now let's put the main picks
• 37:40
  - together.
• 37:42
  - These are the early links, not a claim
• 37:45
  - that every line is already the best available
• 37:49
  - price. Okay?
• 37:50
  - Matchup.
• 37:51
  - Seahawks at Broncos. For me, under 42.5. And
• 37:55
  - for me, Seahawks money line. Texans at Jaguars.
• 37:58
  - For me, under 43.5.
• 38:00
  - And for me, Jaguars minus 2.5.
• 38:03
  - Panthers at Eagles. For me, Eagles money line.
• 38:06
  - Panthers plus 1.5.
• 38:09
  - Ravens at Browns, for me, Ravens Moneyline. And
• 38:12
  - for me, Ravens
• 38:13
  - if price is reasonable.
• 38:16
  - Bears at Falcons.
• 38:17
  - Falcons
• 38:18
  - conditional. For me, wait for the quarterback news.
• 38:22
  - Okay.
• 38:23
  - Saints at Giants. For me, under 45.5.
• 38:27
  - Giants, money line.
• 38:29
  - Okay. Jets at Patriots,
• 38:31
  - Jets plus 7.5.
• 38:33
  - Patriots,
• 38:34
  - money line.
• 38:35
  - Steelers at Buccaneers,
• 38:37
  - Steelers moneyline. For me, under 40.5.
• 38:41
  - Titans at Colts, Colts minus 6.5. Colts, moneyline.
• 38:46
  - Okay. Cardinals at Rams,
• 38:49
  - Wait for Rams. Monday night football game. For
• 38:52
  - me, Cardinals
• 38:53
  - plus 12.5.
• 38:55
  - Bills at Raiders.
• 38:57
  - Bills money line. Over 52.5,
• 39:00
  - conditional.
• 39:01
  - Okay. Chargers
• 39:03
  - at Chiefs.
• 39:04
  - For me, Chargers plus 8.5. And for me,
• 39:07
  - Chiefs, money line. Okay. Cowboys at Packers. For
• 39:10
  - me, Packers, money line. And for me, over
• 39:12
  - 52.5.
• 39:14
  - And finally, Commanders
• 39:16
  - at 40 niners. For me, commanders plus 7.5.
• 39:19
  - 40 niners, money line, Fabi. The most important
• 39:23
  - thing is that we are not betting every
• 39:25
  - game just because we have a prediction.
• 39:28
  - We need to compare
• 39:30
  - our red with the market price. And don't
• 39:33
  - forget that the Rams,
• 39:35
  - Bills, and their week six opponents
• 39:37
  - needs to be reassessed
• 39:39
  - after Monday night game.
• 39:41
  - Cutterback
• 39:42
  - held
• 39:43
  - injury
• 39:44
  - and a line of movement can change a
• 39:47
  - pick
• 39:48
  - quickly.
• 39:49
  - Now final thoughts. Week five remind us how
• 39:53
  - quickly
• 39:54
  - the NFL can change, Pau. The forty niners
• 39:58
  - are still unbeaten.
• 39:59
  - Minnesota is fight an o. The Packers make
• 40:03
  - an statement,
• 40:04
  - and the Patriots
• 40:05
  - suddenly
• 40:06
  - look much more dangerous. But the biggest lesson
• 40:09
  - here, Fabi, is to avoid overreacting.
• 40:12
  - One blowout doesn't make a team unbeatable,
• 40:15
  - and one clause...
• 40:17
  - Loss doesn't mean a team is broken.
• 40:20
  - The matchup and the price
• 40:22
  - still matter.
• 40:23
  - For Thursday, the ninth, we're watching Seattle turn
• 40:27
  - over problem and Denver's
• 40:29
  - offense.
• 40:31
  - For Sunday, the
• 40:32
  - Eagles, Patriot, Packers, and forty niners all have
• 40:36
  - interesting situations,
• 40:38
  - but the best
• 40:40
  - best
• 40:41
  - may be the game where the line gave
• 40:44
  - us room to be wrong. And we'll keep
• 40:47
  - an eye on the injury reports and the
• 40:50
  - market before kickoff.
• 40:52
  - Our early picks are a starting point,
• 40:55
  - not a reason to ignore new information.
• 40:58
  - That's it for this week. The house never
• 41:01
  - wins. Good luck.
• 41:03
  - Beat responsibly,
• 41:05
  - and we'll be back after week six
• 41:09
  - to see which of these rates
• 41:11
  - held up.
• 41:13
  - We are waiting for you on YouTube, Instagram,
• 41:16
  - TikTok, Discord, and please register. Remember to subscribe,
• 41:21
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• 41:23
  - and verify yourself to collect all your money.
• 41:27
  - See you next week. Bye. Bye.