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Irans new strategy_ Prolong war until Trump leaves office · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: The US and Israel launch strikes on Iran nearly six
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  Speaker 1: months ago. Donald Trump has repeatedly declared victory while also
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  Speaker 1: claiming a deal is just around the corner. But a
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  Speaker 1: top advisor to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard
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  Speaker 1: Corps is now indicating that Tehran is the one calling
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  Speaker 1: the shots and could actually prolong the war until the
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  Speaker 1: US president is out of office. That hasn't stopped Trump
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  Speaker 1: from wrapping up his own rhetoric. He's now threatening to
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  Speaker 1: blow Iran away if it tries to do anything, and
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  Speaker 1: he's still insisting that the US controls the Strait of
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  Speaker 1: all moves, but shipping debta is not backing that up.
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  Speaker 1: One maritime intelligence firm says that only fourteen vessels crossed
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  Speaker 1: the strait on Tuesday. Obviously, that is a dramatic decrease
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  Speaker 1: from pre war levels and in what maybe another sign
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  Speaker 1: that Washington and Tehran remain far apart diplomatically. Iran is
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  Speaker 1: shaking up its military leadership. This week's six hardliners were
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  Speaker 1: elevated to top security positions. It's a move that could
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  Speaker 1: suggest Iran's new command may not be inclined to compromise
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  Speaker 1: and Nadavasha joins US Life now from London. Lots of
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  Speaker 1: tackle here, I'm obviously, on the one hand, you have
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  Speaker 1: the US President claiming that UH, the US is now
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  Speaker 1: in charge of the state of unmoves. Obviously when you
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  Speaker 1: look at shipping data, that appears very unlikely. And also
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  Speaker 1: you have the fact that Iran is now apparently, according
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  Speaker 1: to sources, trying to prolong this war to hurt Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump politically just walk us through that, Nowada, That's right.
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  Speaker 2: We are seeing real stepping up the rhetoric from the
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  Speaker 2: Iranian regime and its top officials. According to UH, a
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  Speaker 2: top advisor to the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
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  Speaker 2: care that could potentially be a strategy that the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: regime pursues deepening this conflict until present Trump is out
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  Speaker 2: of office, they say, pursuing a policy of attrition and
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  Speaker 2: trying to put pressure on the United States and its allies.
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  Speaker 2: And we certainly have seen that pressure mounting. As you mentioned, say,
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  Speaker 2: we've seen only fourteen vessels according to UH marine traffic
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  Speaker 2: tracking webs only fourteen vessels passing through the Strait of
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  Speaker 2: Hormus on Tuesday. That is well below of course, those
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  Speaker 2: pre war levels, and there is concern around the safety
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  Speaker 2: or vessels that do manage to pass through the Strait
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  Speaker 2: of Hormus. We've been hearing the warnings from the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: regime that it could also continue to target HOSS what
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  Speaker 2: it deems to be hostile vessels passing through the Strait
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  Speaker 2: of Homus in any sort of agreed parameters that are
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  Speaker 2: set out in any sort of negotiated resolution. But as
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  Speaker 2: you mentioned, we are seeing significant daylight between the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: regime and the US government, the Trump administration present Trump
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  Speaker 2: claiming that the US maintains control of the Strait of Hormus.
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  Speaker 2: That certainly isn't reflected in what we're seeing on the ground,
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  Speaker 2: and also of course in what we're seeing in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the diplomatic efforts that are being pursued to try
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  Speaker 2: to bring about some security to that vital shipping room.
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  Speaker 2: What we've been seeing in recent days is continued talks
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  Speaker 2: between Iranian officials and their Omani counterparts. These talks appear
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  Speaker 2: to have been moving in a more positive direction, with
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  Speaker 2: the order framework of a deal on the table to
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  Speaker 2: allow for a central shipping route through that key strait
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  Speaker 2: to be established in which both Oman and Iran would
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  Speaker 2: share control over traffic incoming and outbound through the Strait
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  Speaker 2: of hor Moves. Now, that deal hasn't been signed as
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  Speaker 2: of yet, and of course Iran has also been very
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  Speaker 2: clear that it maintains the right to target in its
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  Speaker 2: eyes at any hostile vessels, but it has also said
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  Speaker 2: that it is maintaining some key parameters, some key conditions
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  Speaker 2: for the United States in order to see any sort
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  Speaker 2: of peaceful resolution. These conditions include, for example, lifting the
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  Speaker 2: US naval blockade on Iran, unfreezing Iranian assets. We're also
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  Speaker 2: talking about compensation potentially for any damage is caused by
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  Speaker 2: the war, and of course a permanent end to the
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  Speaker 2: war in Iran. At this stage, it appears as though
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  Speaker 2: those talks between the US and Iran are not pushing forward.
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  Speaker 2: Be heard from President Trump just in the last few
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  Speaker 2: days speaking to Axios, saying himself those talks are being,
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  Speaker 2: in his words, low keyed, and then he's focused on
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  Speaker 2: pushing economic pressure on Iran instead.
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  Speaker 1: Nudibas share thank you for that, all right. The International
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  Speaker 1: Energy Agency is warning that it's becoming more urgent to
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  Speaker 1: reopen the straight up on moves as the world burns
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  Speaker 1: through its oil stockpiles rapidly. Oil prices are ticking up
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  Speaker 1: vas Iran hardens its stance over the control of the
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  Speaker 1: straight of on moves and its other demands to end
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  Speaker 1: the Ward Brennick crude Road briefly to Harbor at close
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  Speaker 1: to the ninety dollars a barrel at see where it
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  Speaker 1: is right now. It's slightly lower than that, at eighty
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  Speaker 1: eight dollars a barrel, while WTI is at eighty three
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  Speaker 1: dollars a barrel and sources TELCNN, the US State Department
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  Speaker 1: is now asking embassies in several countries in the Middle
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  Speaker 1: East to make contingency plans to keep operating with reduced staff.
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  Speaker 1: This comes as the war with Iran appears to be
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  Speaker 1: at a stalemate. Non emergency personnel and family members were
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  Speaker 1: ordered to leave nearly every diplomatic post in the region
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  Speaker 1: shortly after the U the US Iran war began in
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  Speaker 1: late February. CNN Jennifer hans La joins this live now
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  Speaker 1: from Washington. Obviously another indication here, Jennifer, that this war
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  Speaker 1: likely is not going to be ending anytime soon.
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  Speaker 3: That's absolutely right saying. So, what sources are telling me
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  Speaker 3: is that embassies that have been on what's called diplomatic
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  Speaker 3: or ordered departure rather, which means they only have emergency
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  Speaker 3: diplomats operating on the ground. There have been asked to
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  Speaker 3: come up with plans for something called restricted operations, which
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  Speaker 3: would maintain a reduced number of personnel working out of
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  Speaker 3: the embassies in the region. At the same time, the
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  Speaker 3: State Department has increasingly allowed diplomats who were displaced from
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  Speaker 3: the region to curtail their posts, to end their jobs
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  Speaker 3: early and move on to a different job. And of course,
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  Speaker 3: taken together, this does indicate that the State Department does
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  Speaker 3: not expect to be able to return to its normal
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  Speaker 3: staffing operations in the region anytime in the near future. Now,
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  Speaker 3: under State Department rules, they are actually required after one
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  Speaker 3: hundred eight days of ordered departure to either move back
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  Speaker 3: to normal staffing operations or put these restricted operation plans
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  Speaker 3: in place. And now these are not yet finalized, but
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  Speaker 3: when they are put into place, they could offer some
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  Speaker 3: degree of clarity for diplomats and their families who have
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  Speaker 3: been moved out of the region. As you mentioned, the
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  Speaker 3: State Department has put most of its embassies into ordered departure.
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  Speaker 3: This includes Bahrain, Jordan, Katar, Saudi Arabia, the United Air Rates,
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  Speaker 3: and Kuwait, but they did not do so ahead of
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  Speaker 3: the start of the war. It was only in the
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  Speaker 3: weeks after those operations began in late February when the
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  Speaker 3: Iranians and its proxies began to target US diplomatic facilities.
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  Speaker 3: So when they made US diplomats and their family members
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  Speaker 3: leave the region and return to the US, there was
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  Speaker 3: a great deal of uncertainty and inability to make long
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  Speaker 3: term plans because it was not clear if these diplomats
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  Speaker 3: would be allowed to return to their posts. According to
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  Speaker 3: a diplomatic spouse who I spoke with, they weren't able
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  Speaker 3: to make plans for long term housing. They've been bouncing
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  Speaker 3: from housing to housing because they didn't know if they
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  Speaker 3: could sign a long term lease. They had questions about
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  Speaker 3: whether they could enroll children into schools. This is what
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  Speaker 3: that spouse told me.
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  Speaker 2: Quote.
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  Speaker 3: We've had evacuations in various parts of the world, but
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  Speaker 3: this is different in that there's such a large portion
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  Speaker 3: of people from one part of the world, with so
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  Speaker 3: many people coming back to one spot. We had no
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  Speaker 3: idea when we walked out of our house in March
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  Speaker 3: that we not only wouldn't be returning in six months,
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  Speaker 3: but now the reality is we won't be returning at all.
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  Speaker 3: So a lot of people are now just making plans
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  Speaker 3: as they have to, especially if they have children, as
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  Speaker 3: the school year is starting to just stay in the
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  Speaker 3: United States, and now that reduced presence on the ground
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  Speaker 3: as well as Zane could have an impact on dogmatic efforts.
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  Speaker 3: The State Department disputes that it's having any impact, and
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  Speaker 3: they said that the safety and security of their personnel
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  Speaker 3: is paramount in any of the decisions that they might make.
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  Speaker 1: Zane Handler life for us. Thank you so much much