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Inside The Data: The Eagles Are Doing Something Historically Well – So Why Is It A Bad Thing? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. And of course, we're talking data analytics
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: and all that good stuff. Well, it's supposed to be
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: good stuff. Maybe not so for the Eagles these days,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: but nevertheless, the man Sam Finkel has done the work.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: And once again, Sam continues to tailor the show around
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: what's going on with the Eagles. So we're going to
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: look at a few different things in this episode that
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: are really pertinent. Obviously, Jalen Hurts is out for the
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: rest of the year, Sam. We'll talk about that in
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: a second. But I love the fact that for the
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: real doom and gloom Philadelphia fan, we already have Sam
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: looking into the official draft pick watch. So we'll get
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: into that. Also, how Jalen Hurts' absence from an data
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: standpoint impacts the Eagles and their projected wind total will
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: again go through third downs because that actually saw some
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: improvement for a little bit against the Panthers. And then
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: among the recent trends we've talked about is the pressure
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: that the Eagles are seeing now on a daily basis. Sam,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I made the joke that every defensive coordinator thinks he's
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Brian Flores now when he faces the The Philadelphia Eagles
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: because they're seeing blitzes at a tremendous rate. Are they not?
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: They are, and it started in that Rams game and
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: has just kind of continued since then.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: And guess what? It's going to keep continuing until the
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Eagles figure out a way to do something differently. They
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: could make– I hope he's still alive. I wouldn't want
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: to make a– is Monty Kiffin still alive or has
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: he passed away? I don't know. I'll check into it
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: really quickly.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: He was getting– He passed away in 2024. He did.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Okay. Well, and I'm not going to make any like
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: grave jokes or anything, but like they would make Monty Kiffin,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: if he was still alive, consider maybe blitzing once or twice,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: you know, cause we all know Monty Kiffin loved to
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: play the soft Tampa too, and just let his personnel
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: do the work. But that's how, how it's looking right
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: now for the Eagles. So a lot of good stuff,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: but obviously Sam, Dylan hurts out for the rest of
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the season. Gives you a whole lot of good data
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: points to go through when something like that happens. But
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: obviously not a great prognosis for the Eagles.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, again, good is a subjective term. In
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: this case, good is in terms of the quality of
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: the data and opportunity to discuss it. But it is
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: probably the nightmare scenario for the 2026 season. Losing Hertz,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: especially in such a bizarre manner. Yep. I mean, just
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: purely even past the data standpoint, it's pretty demoralizing for
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: the entire team and just how the season's going to look.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. Now, maybe the Eagles can figure some things out
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: based on what we talk about in this podcast and
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: things will look a little bit better. Amazingly, in the
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: NFC least, they're not that far out of first. And
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: of course, they play the Cowboys on Monday night and
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: You know, the Giants are coming. I think I saw
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: a stat. This will be a little addition to inside
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the inside the data here that the NFC East has
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: gone winless for two straight weeks. And I think that's
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: the first time in like a billion years that's happened.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: And last week they played each other. Right.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Which is amazing. It's amazing. You would think at least
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: one team has to win, but no, you get a tie.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So and then again, hey, look, the Eagles have to
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: play the Cowboys. On Monday night, and I don't remember
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: who the commanders are playing or who the Giants are playing,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: but I mean, could this go a third straight week?
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, you'd have to have a tie on Monday night,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: so we'll see.
• 3:49
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• 7:01
  Speaker 1: let them know we sent you. Let's get with the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: charts and the data. We start always with peak win percentage.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: The Eagles actually had, hard to believe, a winning percent,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: an ability to win this game from a probability standpoint,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: but they were not favored. That is important to know.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: What do we have here?
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, their highest win percentage was 43%, and
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: it was during the first quarter. Yeah, there was a
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: nine-yard run by Pierce. The Eagles were losing by three,
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: and that was their highest win percentage the entire game.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: When you look in the second half, their highest win
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: percentage was only 33%. And that was right as the
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: third quarter started, following incompletion by Bryce Young on first
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: and 10, and the Eagles were down by three. So
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: that is a sad story. Fact, sad story, but that
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: was the case. It didn't feel like the Eagles were
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: in control of that game at any point. So it
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: kind of matches this win projection for sure.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: That is a great point. It felt to me watching
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: it in there at the link in the press box
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: that the Eagles were never out of the game, but
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: also never truly threatening to win it. Does that sound
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: seem right?
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: That is the exact sentiment I was trying to convey.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: So I said it a little bit better than I did,
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: but yes, that is exactly right. It's all right.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I've been doing this longer than you. All right. The first,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I can't believe it is week in between week six
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: and seven. And we already have the first official inside
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the data draft pick watch.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, by the powers vested in me, you know, this,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: this responsibility, I do formally declare that the Eagles are
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: on draft watch. According to Tankathon, they are... I just
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: checked right now, too. They're still seventh. I did this pre-show,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: so it didn't necessarily factor in the Monday night, but
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: they're still seventh, including the Monday night game. So I
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: just confirmed that. They have four straight losses, which is
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: the first time in the Sirianni area. But this is
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: the first instance of four-game losing streak with 20 or
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: fewer points. for the Eagles since week 10 through 13
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: in 2020. And that was Doug Peterson's last year, I believe.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: And then the 874 total yards during this losing streak
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: is the fewest in a four-game span in a season
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: for the Eagles since week two through five in 1999,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: which I believe is Andy Reid's one of his earlier years.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: First year. Wait, yeah, 99.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, first year.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Yep. Yep. Wow. Just to give some context.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Wow. And wow, backward. And let me say this. um
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: you just gave me an idea for a future inside
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the data here sure we probably need to explore i
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: think this would be a fun element and again it's
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: just contextual we're not like dancing on the eagles graves
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: at all just we get excited about certain data and
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: stats right the eagles right now are four and a
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: half point underdogs at home to the They were, I believe,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: four and a half point underdogs or something similar. So
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: they were definitely underdogs.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe next show we will look at what is the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: how long has it been since the Eagles have been
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: underdogs at home two weeks in a row. Right. Lost
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: both the games. If that's if that becomes the case,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: we should look at the outcomes of those games.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: And I wonder how long how many times because I
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: would imagine that it's very possible, especially if they lose.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: that they will be underdogs again at home the next week. Well, no,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: actually they're on the road next week against the Commanders.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: They may not be. I don't know who's going to
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: be favorited in that game. That's going to be a
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: weird one.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of it is contingent on how
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: the Eagles perform this week, which when we get to
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: the preview show, there's a lot of interesting things to
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: talk about, particularly some vulnerabilities in the Cowboys' defense. Yeah.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, we'll see what happens. We'll talk about it
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: for sure.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. But that's just interesting. I always find the betting
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: lines interesting only because what does Vegas think? Going back
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: in history. But when you talk about that 2020 team,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: because a lot of people have asked me, does the
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: 2026 year right now remind me more of the 2020
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: team or the 2005 team? How old were you in 2005?
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: Seven. Okay.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So you don't remember. I'm sure you don't have vivid memories.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: You might remember T.O. in 2004, right? Of course, yeah.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: And then him blowing it up in 2005 and getting
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: kicked off the team. But there was also so many
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: injuries that year that the quarterback was Mike McMahon. The
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: running back was Ryan Motes. The top wide receiver after T.O.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: got kicked off the team was basically like Reggie Brown,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: who was a rookie, and maybe like Billy McMullen. I
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: don't even remember who the number two was. I mean,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: LJ Smith, I think, was the number one target at
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that point, tight end. And Brian Dawkins and Westbrook were hurt.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And I think, again, Trey Thomas was hurt. So I
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: think Todd Harriman's playing left tackle. So that was a
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: terrible season. I believe it finished up 5-12, if I'm
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: not mistaken. So people have asked me if this season
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: reminds me more of that one or 2020.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: And I was having a conversation about this with a
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: friend of mine who's followed the O's a long time.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: And we kind of commonly agreed that the injuries of
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: it remind you of 2005. But the coaching element feels
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: more like 2020, where the coaches were just not in
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: their game. I mean, Doug was losing it. They had
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: three different offensive coordinators that were brought in to help them.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Didn't work. you know, Carson was fumbling left and right.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: It wasn't so much, there were injuries there, but it
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: was just more, they just couldn't coach their way out
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: of their issues that, that time. So I feel like
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: this season is a combination of both.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: It is like, you get the injuries.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: You get the injuries and the bad and then the
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: coaching that that's been an issue.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: By the way, Eagles were six and 10 in 2005.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: And you were right. Um, about the receiving uh lj
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: smith and brian westbrook had the same amount of receptions
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: at 61 yeah and bwest got hurt despite westbrook only
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: playing 12 games right yeah right.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Who was the number who had the most catches among
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: wide receivers greg lewis greg right that's right not 47.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: I guess, was he traded in the middle of the year?
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Well, no, he was just basically kicked off the team.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: But I tell you this, Sam, I tell you this,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: before you read the stats, a lot of people don't
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: realize this because it's long gone now. My God, it's
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: 21 years, right? T.O. was having a better 2005 than
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: he had in 2004. And he had a great 2004
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: until he got hurt. But look at his numbers in 2005.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Read them to me real quick.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so he had 47... receptions on 92 targets for
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: 763 yards 16.2 yards per reception six.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Touchdowns in seven games seven games he had 800 yards
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: yep all right so he was on his way to
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: what 16 17 1800 yards and incredible he was on
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: freaking guardable that year okay but that's uh water under
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: the bridge now A lot of people forget that because
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: he was so good in 2004 before he got hurt. Right. Well,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: speaking about quarterbacks, because we know T.O. and Donovan couldn't
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: make it work, Jalen Hurts, now out for the year
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: with the blood clots, and I like that you tried
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: to model some data here to show what that means
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: for the team. What did you find?
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I just re-ran the Monte Carlo with some adjustments.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: I actually, I still think the adjustments aren't enough. They're
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: at seven expected wins. I think that they'd be potentially
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: less than that. But remember, when we originally did this,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: it was 10 and a half expected wins. They were
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: between 10 and 11. And their chance of 10 wins
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: was 70%. Their chance of 10 wins, although it's not
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: on there, I believe was around 6% now. So it
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: went from 70 to 6%. But their chance of 11
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: wins was a coin flip. It was 50-50 in the
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: original modeling. The new model has it at 1.5%.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I think you're right. I think it should be lower.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: I think so too. But I just kind of went
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: off what the simulations did and that's kind of where
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: it said. And I think it's a significant change. I
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: think the 70% chance of 10 wins down to 6%
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: is a huge and statistically significant drop.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Right. Okay. So the Eagles are two and five right now, right?
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Is that correct? Four, two and four, two and four,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: two and four. And the model now says its most
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: likely record would be 7-10, which means it'd have to
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: go 5-6 the rest of the way.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: That would be pretty interesting for a team that has
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: lost four straight to suddenly go 5-6. Not saying it's
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: not doable, but look at the schedule.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: It's a tough schedule.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, Houston is starting to look
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: good again.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Even though the Cardinals just beat the Rams, but those
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: are the two games. And then the divisional games could
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: go either way.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Right. Like where are your guaranteed wins on the schedule
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: at this point? You know, even if you wanted to
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: say the Cardinals could be, even though they just beat
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the Rams, that's, that's two teams knowing each other. I
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: don't think the Cardinals would be good, but after, you know,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: they got the division games coming up, Cowboys, commanders, giants, theoretically,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: they could win three of those. Okay. I'm not going
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to say that, but after that you get Steelers, then
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: you get the Cowboys again, you know, they always split
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: with their division. Then they get the Cardinals, so maybe
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: that's one. Colts are struggling. Colts are undergoing major change,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: so there's one there. But Seahawks, Texans.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Seahawks are kind of struggling too, at least offensively.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: They're struggling. They're playing a tougher schedule, but they score points.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: If I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: I'm going to think by week 15 they'll be a
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: better team.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: Well, then you almost got to think about it this way.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: At the end of their schedule, if the teams lock
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: up any playoff positioning, do they bench– They're starters against
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: the Eagles.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: I think week 15 is a little early for that.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a little early. I'm just trying.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Niners, right, in week 17 because they may
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: have already wrapped up the number one. They may have
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: at least wrapped up the NFC West, but they might
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: get that number one seat as well. But the Giants
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: won't be in that position, I doubt, in week 18.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: The Giants might win the division by week 18.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: They might have.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: I just don't know. Right.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: But if that, if, if it's, if they have, that
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: means that the Eagles didn't get to that mark that
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: we were getting.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: A hundred percent. That's a, that's a very fair point
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: All right. Third down stats. Now, what do you make
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: of this? I mean that they were at least close
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: to season. I mean, above season average. Yeah.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, I just, I have no word. It just was,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: The game did not feel like it was better than,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: you know, it felt par for the course, to be
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: honest with you, a little bit. Which, again, you have
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: to give a little bit of the benefit of the
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: doubt to McKee and that new unit. But I knew
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: when McKee got sacked on the first play of the
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: game on that blitz that it was going to be
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: a really long game the rest of the way. And
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think this is indicative that sequencing was better
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: because I still feel like first and second down did
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: not set up third down great. I mean, you look
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: at it from the actual, the second chart where it's,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: they had six attempts on third and short and medium
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: combined versus nine third and long. That would suggest that
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: the sequencing was better, but I just, it didn't feel
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: that way watching the game personally.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Right. Right. So like, we don't need to belabor this
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: and not, you know, we've talked about in the past,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: but I, I imagine that again, their third and longs,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: which is third and seven plus is, Are now starting
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: that it started off early in the year that it
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: wasn't as much as third and short and mid combined
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: like last year. Then it got to that. And now
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: you're getting much over the mark where you're in third
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: and long way more. than middle and short combined.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah and that's a tough place to live but they
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: were really efficient on the third and short to medium
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: i mean they're 100 on third and short and 75
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: on third and medium so correct i feel like that
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: is a positive point that can be worth discussing a
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: little bit just you know, glossing over, but I definitely
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: want to at least indicate that that was something that
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: was positive in the performance.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Right, right. Defensively, on third down, they've been better this
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: year than they were last year, right? But against the Panthers,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: they were not.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, that's also something I feel like we talked
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: about a little bit, but I mean, their third down
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: defense was abysmal last year.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's definitely... worth noting. So them being,
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: you know, not too far off from that is, is
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: not a great place to be. It's not a great threshold. Yeah.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. All right. Let's talk about something new here.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: All right. We're going to talk about the rate of
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: blitzing that the Eagles have been seeing. You and I
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: talked about going to the show, how the Panthers really
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: blitzed them relentlessly. And that seems to have been something
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: that we've seen a lot lately. So what did you find?
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, again, it started really with that Rams game.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: They blitzed at a 22.3% higher rate than their season average.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: And then it continued in the Jaguars game where they
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: were up almost 12.5%. And then the Panthers, who blitzed
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: more than most of those teams, at 5.7% increase. And
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: what is interesting with that is it really indicates that
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: that the pass protection is just not good because you
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: look at it, right? And you see that EPA per
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: pass versus the Blitz on each game. Every single one
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: is negative except for the Titans game. But you look
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: at it, it's not just negative. It is really bad negative, right?
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, each one is almost over half, minus 0.5
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: against the Blitz. That is horrible. Just to give you
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: kind of some context, there's the columns on the right
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: And that just shows you in 2024, they were blitzed
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: at a 35.3% rate, but they had a positive EPA
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: against the blitz. It was plus 0.14. You go to 2025,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: it's almost negligible. It's minus 0.02. They were blitzed at
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: almost the same rate at 35.5%. You go to this year, right?
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: It's 41.2% minus 0.39 in 2026. That is a huge change.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: And it's just showing that the blitz is so effective
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: against this team. And it really destroys their opportunity to
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: get points. Yeah. It really does.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, so much so that, you know, teams that
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: don't blitz a whole lot are just common. Like you mentioned,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: the Rams at 55%. That's crazy, right? Jags at 43%.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Panthers 44%. The Panthers were blitzed at, let's say, 6%. Oh,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: you have the numbers right there. Close to 6% higher.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: But the Rams, 22% higher. The Jags, almost 13% higher.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: And I haven't checked out Dallas' blitz stats. I can't
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: imagine they're high because they have so many defensive issues. Plus,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Christian Parker is from the Vic Fangio school. You don't
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: want to. But I got to think Monday night, Christian
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Parker is going to get his Brian Flores on and
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: try to send as many people as he can.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's that is the way the statistics say
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: to beat this team. It truly is. I mean, they really,
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: really struggle against the Blitz to the point where it
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: drastically affects the outcome of drives. And that's what that EPA,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: the past EPA per play against the Blitz kind of indicates.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Do you know if this is the worst EPA against
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the Blitz in the NFL?
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Uh, I can find out. Um, let me just, I
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: was going to get the Dallas's blitz percentage really quick.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, sure. You do that.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Well, they're at 23.6.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Say that again. Dallas blitz at a 23.6. So I'm
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: going to guess that that is among the lower end
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: of the spell or map bottom half. I'd say just
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: knowing that I know that the leaders are usually up
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: in the, well, I mean, there's Flores who's up around 60%,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: which is crazy. Um, and then there's normal people who
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: like to blitz and they're usually at like 35 to
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: 50 you know in that in that range.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: But let me get that other statistic for.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: You yeah sure sure.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: So they are not the worst they are 30th okay
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: um the chargers and the steelers are both worse Interesting.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. The Chargers have been maybe as bad
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: offensively as the Eagles have been all year, and the
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Steelers are kind of like a Jekyll and Hyde team.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: But the difference is turnovers, right? The Chargers lead the
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: NFL in turnovers. The Eagles do not. And remember, EPA
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: is extremely sensitive to turnovers, obviously, because that affects expected points.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: But for the Eagles to be at such a terrible
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: EPA per play against the Blitz, and not have that
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: many turnovers, whether that be a fumble or an interception,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: it shows that that pass protection is abysmal. It just does.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Something schematically is fundamentally wrong with this team. 100%.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Cowboys, you mentioned their Blitz percentage.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: It's 22nd in the NFL, so they're certainly in the
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: bottom half. They don't do it. Unless they have to,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: but we'll see on Monday night if that skyrockets. And
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: then we'll keep adding it. Obviously, for as long as
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: this is problematic for the Eagles, we'll keep pointing it
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: out in this show. Great stuff on that, Tim. Let's
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: talk about offensive efficiency or lack thereof against the Panthers.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think first off, tendency-wise, they had
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: 44 passes out of shotgun in four runs, which is
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: the worst we've seen all year. And I get it.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Game script kind of dictated you had to pass a
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: little bit more. but I mean, 92% out of shotgun
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: and then 61% run under center. Uh, not great. Yeah. Yeah.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Uh, now I will say, I think that was more like,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I I'm not as upset by it as I've been
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: in the past because I felt like there should be in,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: I think they should be tailoring what they do to
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: either protection issues and be do Tanner McKee making his
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: first start, uh, You know what I'm saying? I thought
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: that they would be in shotgun a little more.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: Sure. I will say three out of the four runs
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: out of shotgun were successful at 75%, which is almost
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: 30 percentage points higher than the season on success on shotgun.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Very small sample size, so probably not fair to say anything.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: But their past success was also higher than on the
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: season out of shotgun. Yes. Which means their overall success
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: was higher under shotguns. than on the season. And it
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: kind of was the inverse under center, which again makes
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: sense kind of what you were just saying.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: So, so under center was a disaster for them. That
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: was something that I sensed in real time, especially passing,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, passing under center. And, you know, we talked about.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: 0% success rate. I've never seen that before for the
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Eagles or really anything we've talked about.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: So, yeah. Which is– it's like, wow, their season percentage
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: is 16.1, which is awful. And they actually figured out
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: a way to take something awful and make it even
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: horrifically more worse than awful. Like, 16.1% is terrible. And
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: then to have a 0% success rate under center. Man, Sam,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: there's no words for that.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: No, there really aren't. It's abysmal.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know. You know, like– It's funny because in
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: the last show we criticized, I did especially, right? I said, look,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: every time you're going under center, you're running. Every time
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: you're in shotgun, you're passing, you're too predictable. So now
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: they do try to pull off a few passes from
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: under center and it doesn't work. But I also think
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: like when you know the teams are coming at you
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: like that and you run a slow developing under center
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: pass play, you're almost begging for issues and that's what
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: they got.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Definitely. And that's the, that's the results that showed
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: zero percent.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: That's well, that's crazy. All right. Let's just focus to
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: another part of the offense that you and I had
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: talked about before the show. I said something to you
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: where I find it amazing that the Eagles are so
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: horrific offensively and they're getting hit and they're having bad snaps. Right.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: And they've got backups all over the place and they're
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: getting blitzed. And yet, The one thing they seem to
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: do pretty well is not turn the ball over. And
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: that's got to be kind of rare for a team
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: that is so offensively inefficient, right? And it turns out what?
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Oh, it was rare. It was very rare. And it
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: makes something– I think before I go into the data,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: something interesting. I saw there was an interview with Ben
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Johnson where he said that turnovers was no longer one
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: of the key metrics that he looks at in terms
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: of– determining what wins a football game. You hear it
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: from all coaches. You hear it from Sirianni. Limiting turnovers
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: is one of the key ways to win a football game.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: But Ben Johnson was saying it's EPA per pass was
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: one that he replaced that over turnovers. So I just
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: think that's really interesting, you know, just to kind of,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: you know, get the appetite going for this this statistic.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Does he mean EPA offensive EPA per pass or correct?
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: So he's what his point was. It's more important to
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: be efficient offensively than it is to have ball security.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Is that my, yes.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: Hmm.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: I would think that, well, you've.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Always said EPA, uh, It accounts for turnovers.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: It's very sensitive to turnover. So I almost feel like
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: that's Ben Johnson saying the same thing with different window dressing. Like,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: cause you can't have a good EPA per pass if
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: you're turning the ball over. So obviously.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: But to me, it's a mindset change, right? I mean, you're, you're,
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: you're taking more risks to create explosive plays because EPA
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: is also really sensitive to explosive plays. So if you're
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: going to throw a 50, 50 ball and he's willing
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: to take that risk is what that indicated to me.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: as opposed to how the Eagles have been, which is, yeah,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: they'll do them, but they're pretty like few and far
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: between when they'd rather just, you know, keep the drive going.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: So to him, it's, it's more important to take the
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: risks as long as you're getting the risk, obviously, because
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: that's inherently part of the message.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: That is fair. And that sounds like the conversation we
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: had going into the year, right. About, the whole Sam
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Darnold element of last year, where if under this new offense,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Jalen hurts throws a few more interceptions, but the trade-off
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: is he's driving the ball and the offense looks the
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: way it's supposed to. Are you okay with that? Like
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: it was for the Seahawks last year. And we agreed.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Okay. So now I feel like I understand what Ben
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Johnson is saying a little more and why that could
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: be a more beneficial.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: But I thought it was really interesting. And it kind
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: of underscores the bigger point. So since the, NFL next-gen stats,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: I could go as far back as I could. I
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: went back and I found the bottom five EPA per
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: play teams.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: And then I went and how many turnovers they had.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: And I did turnovers per game because obviously we're only
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: on week six. Right. Not a single team in that
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: entire list. There were 45 teams in that list. Not
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: a single one of them averaged lower than 1.12 turnovers
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: per game besides the Eagles. The Eagles are having less
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: than one turnover per game. They're five and six. And
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: they're the only team of that 45, those are the
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: next closest ones on that chart right there, to have
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: the worst bottom five EPA per play offensively in the
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: league and yet still not turn the ball over at
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: higher than one a game.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: That's fascinating to me. I mean, fascinating, right?
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: That's pretty– and I don't know if that's like commendable
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: or luck. Is that coaching? Because the Eagles really do
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: put a lot of emphasis on ball security drills and
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: not turning the ball over, which is great. But I
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: also wonder if that's like a little bit of luck too.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Every team puts a lot of emphasis on not turning
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: the ball over.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: To me, it's an indictment against the coaching and the scheme.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Because the reason why and the reason why I chose EPA,
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: I could have done this with DVOA. I chose EPA
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: specifically because it is turnover. It is so turnover heavy.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: So the fact that they're still bottom five, despite not
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: having that many turnovers relative to the other five teams,
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: it shows that they're just either not executing or the
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: schematics are just not good. And I think it's a
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: little bit of both. But to me, both of those
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: come down to coaching. One way or another, they both
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: come down to coaching. So to me, this is a
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: really big coaching statistic. And it's an indication that the
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: coaching is not elevating the play at all, whether it
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: be getting them prepared to execute or even just being
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: drawn up in a way that they could execute.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say that the games that
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: they've lost, that they've had a chance to win, which
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: is mainly Jaguars and mainly Rams, they did not turn
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: the ball over, to my knowledge, in either of those games, correct?
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: I don't think so.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Had they, I don't even think we would even be
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: having a conversation about them. having a chance to win
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: those games. Right. So it is commendable. You're right. It's
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: an indictment of the coaching staff at the same time
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: as being pretty commendable of the players to be able
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: to not lose grip of this ball for as bad
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: as they've been offensive.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: But it's like to what game, right? I mean, if
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: you're not turning the ball over, but you have to
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: punt every three, like every three plays.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: That's a good point.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's an aggression issue too, or being too careful.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: That's fair.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: To me, this is the most significant statistics we brought
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: up to say that there is a coaching problem. To me,
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: this study that we just did is the most indicative
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: that we've done the entire show, anytime we've done this,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: that says that there's a coaching issue. To me, that
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: is definitively the statistic that shows that.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I agree with you. I totally agree. I think that
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: it's really telltale. And I'll be interested in this. We'll
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: keep our eyes on this going forward. to see if
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: this is a trend that continues or if something changes,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: but thanks for putting that together. It was really good.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Thanks for coming up with the idea. Yep. Sure.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Sure. All right. Let's talk about the defense, the pass rush. Hey,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: a little improvement there.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Definitely. I mean, they, they were above average in all
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: the metrics, right? They're above average and pressure rate above
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: average in sack rate and above average in pressure to sack.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: One thing that's a little bit interesting that I wanted
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: to kind of talk about was you look at it, right?
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: And that's all great. And again, the averages change each week.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: I have this updated each week. So they're going to
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: be different from the last couple of weeks we've been
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: tracking this. But what's interesting is you look at Jacksonville
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: and Carolina, they both were 41 pass plays. You look
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: at it, there were 11 pressures in Carolina and 15
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: against Jacksonville. They both led to two sacks, right? So
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: you look at that and you see in Jacksonville, two
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: of the three are above average, right? The pressure rate,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: and the sack rate. But the pressure rate is so
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: much higher. Because of that, the pressure to sack rate,
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: because it was the same sack, is lower than average.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: So it's hard to criticize that because having more pressure
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: does not necessarily translate into more sacks, even though they
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: had less pressure and the same amount of sacks, it
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: looks better. So I want to be very clear about that.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: And to me, part of that is because what you
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: talked about last week, they blitzed at a much higher rate.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: But what scares me is they blitzed at a higher
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: rate and had less pressure.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. Well, they also, I mean, you hate to
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: always talk about the injury. Losing Nolan Smith hurt because
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: he got a pressure and a sack on a normal
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: four-man rush. So that forced them to have to get
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the blitz right up. Man, they're really hurting. Grenard only
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: played a smattering of snaps. I mean, you had Sean
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: James Newby in there for like 60% of the snaps, Sam.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: That's rough. It is.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: But but I just I think it's interesting. I mean,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: you're you're you blitz more in this game. You got
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: less pressure. But because there was less pressure, your pressure
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: to sack looks better. I just want to be clear.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: It looks better. That doesn't mean it is better in
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: this specific scenario.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: So so you would would you argue that they actually
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: did a better job against the Jaguars than the Panthers
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: in terms of just. Yeah, I think that's fair. Yeah.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you look at their season before
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: we move on really quick, I mean, they're still above average.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: They've been consistently above average in their pressure rate. But again,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: now they're just average, pretty much average. They're a little
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: bit lower, but it's negligible, the difference. 3.6 to 3.68,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: so it's 0.08 different. They're basically average at the sack rate,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: but they're significantly lower on that pressure to sack, which
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: means that this problem still persists, right? They're not getting homes.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: at a rate that's league, even league average. Yeah.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're kind of living off that first game
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: against Washington, the Jags game, which was good. And then Tennessee, well,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: you know, they got a lot of pressure and then,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: so you got three games where you were really above
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: the high above the NFL average and then three games
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: where you're a lot closer to it. So it's consistent.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: So yeah, good stuff. So really good stuff on that.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Thank you. All right. In summary, Sam, take it away.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It's a, The skid reaches four, right? They've had
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: four losses in a row, 874 yards, and those four
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: losses are the worst since 1999.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: By the way, I think the Bears had like– didn't
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the Bears have over 500 yards just in one game
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: in week one?
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, against the Panthers, right?
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's like 70% of the Eagles' last four games
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: they had in one game. That's crazy.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then again, 20 or fewer points in each game,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: which is the worst since the 2020 Eagles. The turnovers, again,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: it's a huge issue, right? I mean, they are at 0.83
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: per game. It's not explaining why they're losing, right? They
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: have good ball security, yet they're still one of the
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: bottom five EPA per play teams. Again, really, really bad,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: really bad. And if they did throw turnovers, they would
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: be historically bad. Just to be even more clear, I
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: didn't make that point before, but they would be even worse.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: So that is another point that I think is really
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: worth rehashing right now. They are good against the Blitz.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: They have no answer. Their protection is extremely strained. They're
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: minus 0.57 EPA per pass on the Blitz versus Carolina
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: and minus 0.39 EPA per pass against the Blitz on
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: the season. Really bad. They need to figure that out
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: if they want a chance to win any more games
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: because that's going to limit them just inherently. And again,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: finally getting home, the pressure statistics are better. there's still
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of room to improvement in my mind, but
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: that is, that's where they're at.
• 39:11
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  Speaker 1: I loved everything we talked about. I thought we put
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: it in a great perspective. Your charts were fantastic. I
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  Speaker 1: think the people listening got a clearer idea of what's
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  Speaker 1: going on, too, if they can't see the charts. And
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: that is the current state for things from a data
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  Speaker 1: standpoint for the Philadelphia Eagles. On our next show, we
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: will do a data preview of their game, their Monday
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: night game against the Cowboys. Big, big thank you to
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Sam putting together great data charts and data points here
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: on Inside the Data. on Inside the Birds for Sam Finkel.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. We'll catch you all on the next one.