Latest / The Fourcast / Trump Xi meeting: will Taiwan become the next Hong Kong?

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Trump Xi meeting: will Taiwan become the next Hong Kong? · The Fourcast

0:00
Do you fear that Taiwan is going to go the way of Hong Kong?
0:03
If everything is about realpolitik, everything is about
0:06
a deal, would the future of Taiwan be part of the deal?
0:10
Trump said that he gave no assurances either way what he
0:13
was going to do about Taiwan. And of course, what does
0:15
President Trump do on the way home?
0:16
But he posts on social media. The Chinese have got a ballroom.
0:21
We deserve our ballroom, too. I have to be more vigilant than
0:25
ordinary people because there is a bounty on my head.
0:28
I'm on the want to list. You said there's a bounty on
0:30
your head and they may be surveilling you.
0:33
Do you actually fear for your life?
0:39
Hello and welcome to THE FORECAST.
0:41
What has Donald Trump got out of his two day trip to Beijing?
0:45
There are some roses from the Chinese president for the White
0:48
House, Rose Garden apparently. But a trade deal, an end to the
0:51
war in Iran, the Straits of Hormuz reopened.
0:54
That all seemed rather more elusive.
0:56
And what about Xi Jinping? Did he get to show that China is
0:59
now America's equal on the global stage, access to US tech
1:03
and AI? Could he even have got the nod
1:06
from Trump that Taiwan and it's threatened democracy is now no
1:10
longer a priority for the US? To discuss all this, I'm joined
1:14
by Channel 4 News foreign affairs expert Jonathan Rugman
1:17
and the Hong Kong democracy activist Nathan Law, who's now
1:20
living in exile in the UK and on a Chinese wanted list.
1:25
Nathan, first of all, when when you see Trump coming out of this
1:28
meeting, you know, throwing praise at Xi Jinping and nothing
1:32
very concrete about Taiwan and freedom, are you, are you
1:37
worried? Well, of course, when you look
1:42
at the results of the meeting, we don't see anything about
1:46
human rights. You don't see anything about the
1:48
issues that we've been really talking about like the
1:51
constitution came in in Xinjiang and Hong Kong stuff like it
1:55
seems like the democratic rise and human rights issues have
1:58
been sort of like bury down all these talks about economy, talk
2:04
about traits and talks about business.
2:07
I could I I completely understand that there are
2:09
certain like really depressing issues that are happening around
2:11
the world and maybe like China could be seen as someone who
2:15
could break a deal or who could work on east some of the
2:19
situation. But as someone who is also like
2:22
paying attention to the situation of Hong Kong and the
2:25
state of democracy around the world, that definitely like
2:28
worrying sign that these things are not being addressed.
2:31
Jonathan trade was the top priority here, but even there we
2:35
don't have a lot of big headlines out of this trip, do
2:37
we? No, we don't.
2:40
The tariffs that Trump imposed on China last year at 145% have
2:47
been reduced to 30%, but they're still there.
2:50
And this was, at most, a fragile truce between the two most
2:56
powerful men in the world who was sort of sizing each other up
3:01
and doing so for domestic consumption.
3:04
The Chinese economy has slowed down.
3:07
It's good for President Xi to be seen with President Trump.
3:12
President Trump needs to deliver Chinese purchase of American
3:18
soybeans, Chinese purchase of Boeing jets, things he can take
3:23
back to America for American jobs, particularly with the
3:27
midterm elections approaching. And so on the way home,
3:31
President Trump has been talking up these things and saying
3:34
they're buying hundreds of jets, they're going to buy billions of
3:36
dollars worth of soybeans. And the Chinese have not
3:39
confirmed that. So not for the first time, I
3:44
don't think we can take Trump literally in terms of what he's
3:48
saying. And the tensions between these
3:51
two countries still very much exist.
3:53
I. Mean when Nathan says, you know,
3:55
democracy and human rights slip down the agenda.
4:00
The media talks a lot about democracy and human rights when
4:03
there is a big diplomatic trip, whether it's Britain and China
4:06
or America and China. In reality, how front and centre
4:11
are human rights questions when it comes to the American and
4:15
Chinese relationship? They've not vanished from the
4:18
agenda, but they've diminished significantly.
4:21
I mean, compare it with the first Trump presidency when Mike
4:24
Pompeo was the US Secretary of State.
4:26
He was really exercised about the plight of the Uyghurs in in
4:30
Sinjang. We just when did you last hear
4:33
about the Uyghurs in Sinjang? As far as the Americans are
4:36
concerned, it's it's not happening.
4:38
And what has happened to US foreign policy is it's it's
4:42
taken on this, what they would see as a pragmatic realpolitik
4:47
approach about great power rivalry but also great power
4:52
coexistence, that somehow if you let the Chinese do what they
4:57
want to do in their part of the world, then the Chinese will let
5:01
us do what we want to do in our part of the world.
5:03
Trump's whole spheres of influence.
5:04
Exactly. Theory.
5:06
Yeah. Nathan, What?
5:08
What does that tell you? I mean, one of the things, you
5:11
know, a couple of months ago we were speculating about that
5:13
might come out of this trip, for example, was, was Trump going to
5:17
get Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong businessman and democracy
5:21
campaigner, out of jail? You know, Britain had failed to
5:24
do that. But maybe.
5:25
But Trump was the big hope. I spoke to Jimmy Lai's son,
5:28
actually, and they were really hopeful that maybe something
5:31
could come of this. It doesn't appear to have done.
5:34
When we when we talk about the situation of Hong Kong, I think
5:38
many other issues has buried what has happened in Hong Kong.
5:41
It, it is being cycle out of media, but things have been
5:45
stagnated. Things have been worsening.
5:47
And there are meant still many, many political presidents in
5:50
Hong Kong, including dreamy line, including Joshua Wong, who
5:52
was just brought on court for a new charge being put on him to
5:56
keep him in prison as long as possible.
6:00
And when when we think about China, they they've been
6:03
aggressive on South China Sea. They've been aggressive on all
6:05
fronts in terms of trying to flash that mark.
6:08
So but seemingly like if the the theory is if if bad actors, they
6:15
behave in that way without much other consequences, they will
6:21
continue to do so. And you can interpret the way
6:24
that whatever the theory of charms MC of a severe influence
6:31
or the way that it is only about trade, it is some sort of like
6:35
enabling of those behaviours. And we're seeing Jimmy Lai and
6:39
Joshua Wong being in jail for, for probably decades.
6:42
And, and one of them, Jimmy Lai is, is 78 year old and, and, and
6:47
his family is also really concerned about his health,
6:50
whether he could walk out in jail alive after 20 years of
6:52
imprisonment. I.
6:53
Mean the The big question obviously, is Taiwan.
6:56
Do do you fear that Taiwan is going to go the way of Hong
6:58
Kong? I think there are still like big
7:02
distinction compared to the political system, the influence
7:05
of the PRC in these two places. But definitely, I, I, I also
7:11
hear lots of concerns about the state of Taiwan from people who
7:16
are in Taiwan and people who care about the issue, mainly
7:19
because if everything is about realpolitik, everything is up
7:24
for grabs, everything is about a deal, would the future of Taiwan
7:28
be part of the deal if let's say, the importance of the
7:34
semiconducting industry and, or other or, or, or or that other
7:38
things that that matter to the US economy dwindle?
7:41
I think this is a, a real concern for the people who are
7:44
living in the island. I.
7:46
Mean what of what do we know about what they said about
7:48
Taiwan, other than they talked about it a lot and and she at
7:52
least suggested that if things go wrong in terms of the
7:56
American relationship, it could lead to war.
7:58
Yes, I mean, I mean, the Chinese warned Trump off getting
8:03
involved in Taiwan and they said, you know, it could lead to
8:07
conflict. And I think if you're Taiwanese,
8:11
you're probably a bit more worried today than you were
8:14
yesterday because President Trump on the plane on the way
8:18
home, said we spoke a lot about Taiwan.
8:22
It was clearly top of the agenda for the Chinese.
8:24
It wasn't top of Trump's agenda. And Trump said that he gave no
8:28
assurances either way what he was going to do about Taiwan.
8:32
And he said he still hadn't determined and would determine
8:35
in the next few days whether some 11 to $13 billion of
8:40
military aid from America to Taiwan would go ahead.
8:43
Now, this was something that the Trump White House agreed to do
8:47
at the end of last year. And after this visit, President
8:50
Trump goes home and says, well, I haven't decided whether it's
8:52
going to go ahead or not. And so that will be very
8:55
worrying for the for the Taiwanese.
8:57
And it's no coincidence that they have launched rather
9:00
aggressive looking military exercises just to tell
9:04
everybody, the Chinese and the Americans you know, that they
9:08
are on their guard. But the Chinese were
9:10
surprisingly open, I thought, with their language.
9:13
Yes, You know, in terms of the diplomatic readout to talk about
9:16
this could lead to conflict and war.
9:18
Yeah, in the middle of AUS diplomatic visit.
9:21
It's quite a thing. I, well, I think it's quite a
9:23
thing because they intend to do it to, to take Taiwan back.
9:28
They're not doing it at the moment because they are
9:31
currently conducting. C is conducting a purge of
9:35
Chinese military, senior military officers.
9:37
He may not have people he can trust, people who could carry
9:40
out an operation like that. But what is really frightening,
9:42
I think, for the rest of us is that the issue of Taiwan is a
9:45
domestic issue for China. It is not an international
9:49
issue. It is a stated intention.
9:51
And what the rest of us think about it may not matter that
9:55
much. One outcome of what's happened
9:57
in the Strait of Hormuz with Iran is the Chinese will have
10:02
been looking at that very, very closely and saying, well, what
10:04
can we learn from this? You know, this blockade has been
10:07
a bit of a mess. How could we do things
10:10
differently when it comes to Taiwan and, and perhaps the, you
10:14
know, the global effect of that conflict, particularly on energy
10:18
prices? Well, the Chinese were thinking,
10:20
well, what happens if semiconductor chips that were
10:24
going to leave Taiwan are now stopped?
10:26
That's the equivalent to to oil and gas in in the Strait of
10:30
Taiwan. So.
10:31
So that's an interesting pause for thought as far as the
10:34
Chinese are concerned. And she talked about the
10:36
Thucydides trap, and Trump looked back at him as if he knew
10:40
what that was. So, so So what is it?
10:44
And why was she talking about this?
10:47
Shall I give a very brief, brief explanation?
10:49
The Second Peloponnesian War? Thucydides, one of the world's
10:53
first historians, wrote about it, the war between Athens and
10:56
Sparta. And the parallel that C was
10:59
trying to make was that it was a war between a, a rising power
11:04
and an established power. And that what tended to happen
11:07
in history was that an established power went to war
11:11
with a rising power. And what C was trying to say
11:14
was, don't repeat that mistake. Just because we are a rising
11:17
power, don't assume that you should, you know, go to war with
11:20
us. It would not be a good idea.
11:22
And I think, you know, what's really worrying about this visit
11:25
is it was so clearly dominant to everything that that C was
11:30
thinking about was Taiwan. And revealing that C is really
11:35
calling America a falling power. Well, I think that is.
11:40
That's the implication, isn't it?
11:41
They're talking about the facilities trap.
11:43
Or like, I think that there is an implication where like all
11:47
these Chinese rhetoric about China is a peaceful country,
11:50
China wants to coexist, try to portray that they are like the
11:53
good guy, the benign guy, and the US is the evil guy and
11:56
trying to do these like expansionist effort and going to
12:00
war with some others. But I think like we, we just
12:02
cannot take it. I mean.
12:05
That, that is very much what the Chinese, I mean, I, I went for
12:08
the Starmer visit and the sort of the, the briefing that you're
12:11
getting from the sort of the, the, the Chinese think tanks,
12:14
you know, who brief Western journalists is very much, you
12:16
know, we are now the. Sort of.
12:19
The peacemaker and the the protector of the international
12:22
order, we believe in rules, we believe in the United Nations
12:26
and the rules based order. That is what they're trying to
12:29
project. Yeah, but it, it, if we, we've
12:32
sort of like looked back to what team has been doing for the one
12:36
to, to for the past decades. They've built an enormous effort
12:40
in like Belt and Road projects. They they've been trying to do a
12:44
lot of competition in, in different countries.
12:47
They've been trying to compete sort of like on a global stage
12:50
in terms of international influence with the US or US
12:52
allies. And they've been doing a lot on
12:55
Hong Kong and on Xinjiang and wiggers and on Tibetans just to
13:00
establish this authority in a way to say that we are going to
13:05
March forward with our authoritarianism.
13:08
Our sort of like the way that we govern the country and anyone
13:11
who tried to criticize us in terms of human rights, in terms
13:15
of democratic rights, you're not going to make it.
13:18
And we will sort of like rebuild you with full force and.
13:21
That's that's quite attractive to President Trump.
13:23
You know, strength. It was it was interesting
13:26
watching the two leaders walk around the imperial garden in
13:29
Beijing today and President Xi pointing out these 500 year old
13:33
trees. No embarrassment about a
13:36
Communist Party leader using hundreds of years of empire as a
13:41
backdrop to say to President Trump, you know, we've been here
13:45
a long time. You know, you know, we, we've
13:47
had dynastic rulers before and and here is is C another one.
13:53
And of course, what does President Trump do on the way
13:54
home? But he, he, the posts on our
13:57
social media, the Chinese have got a ballroom.
14:00
You know, we, you know, we deserve our ballroom too.
14:02
You know, it's a trick. It's a trick that that so many
14:06
countries are now playing with Trump, which is putting on a
14:09
show of pomp and circumstance and actually having him rather
14:13
jealous of the power and the kind of pomp that other
14:18
countries have in the hope that that feeds a kind of narrative
14:23
for Trump that, you know, we respect these people.
14:26
They do what they do in their part of the world, and we do
14:28
what our what we do in our part of the world.
14:30
What, what is the the stated American position?
14:32
I mean, diplomatically the United States recognises that
14:36
Taiwan is part of China, but that it has a relationship with
14:40
the Taiwanese people and government that involves trade
14:44
and defence and all sorts of other things.
14:46
But I mean, is Trump basically saying that is up for grabs?
14:50
You know the the, the nature of that well that the US will have
14:53
an independent relationship with Taiwan.
14:55
I think that is up for grabs. I think on on the other side of
15:00
it, presidency is a man who craves predictability.
15:04
And so how do you square the ambition to to retake Taiwan, to
15:10
incorporate it into China with that supposed diplomatic only
15:16
adult in the Rome approach, which the Chinese like to
15:18
portray themselves as? You know, are they actually
15:21
prepared to do this thing? I've said that it's their stated
15:26
policy that that it should be, you know, part of China.
15:31
Whether Trump gets involved or not.
15:33
I, I think is a very big question.
15:34
And you would sort of ask yourself, well, you know, would
15:36
it be better to try and take Taiwan back while Trump is
15:39
president than it would be to wait until after that?
15:42
But as I said, I don't think the Chinese are ready to do it.
15:44
Well, I mean, in terms of the timetable, the fear has been
15:49
that the Chinese would move around 2027, not necessarily
15:53
with an invasion, but with the beginning of a blockade.
15:57
What do you think is likely to happen?
16:00
I think we've had many timetable before, like some, some some
16:04
said that 25 was the perfect window and some said that like
16:07
27. I just agree with the the idea
16:11
that it is not ready yet. She has a lot of mess at home
16:15
that he has to take care of. And I think for now, all the
16:20
signs, all the signals are portraying they would rather
16:24
have a coin quote, peaceful way of sorting out by working with
16:29
it people enablers and people were sympathised with the CCP
16:34
inside Taiwan by trying to regain power through election,
16:38
etcetera. So I, I would feel like
16:42
definitely we have to be cautious weapon to be careful
16:46
blockade. It is a theory.
16:48
It is not something that China is actively planning.
16:51
And I think this is something that we we all should really be
16:56
be aware about. How?
16:57
How good do you think is Taiwan at wielding its own power?
17:02
You know, and, and the impact of war around Taiwan on
17:08
semiconductors and the impact of that on the world.
17:12
In, in terms of the war itself, Taiwan is actually a Ireland
17:17
incredibly difficult to, to conquer.
17:21
It is very difficult for landing.
17:23
There's only two windows in a year that you can cross the
17:25
Strait and it will be a, a really difficult mission for,
17:30
for, for the Chinese army to just crack it.
17:32
So I think like the, the, the idea that, oh, they can go in
17:36
anytime at their will and taking Taiwan at ease, like a big part
17:41
of that is actually information warfare to just convince people.
17:45
It is not like a sort of conflict that Taiwan has any
17:49
chance to sustain or has any chance to, to, to sort of like
17:53
defend themselves. And I think that that's not
17:55
true. And in in the state of economy,
17:59
in the state of the politics, the perch and also China has
18:04
been putting so much effort in just portraying themselves as
18:08
peacemaker deal makers in between different powers.
18:11
It is not a good window for them to to go into a active war with
18:17
with. Taiwan, what links are there
18:19
between Taiwanese domestic activists who are against, you
18:27
know, joining China and against any kind of invasion and the,
18:29
and the, the former Hong Kong democracy process movement?
18:33
I mean, I know some people, you know, ended up from Hong Kong,
18:36
ended up in Taipei, didn't they? I mean, I met some of them a
18:38
couple of years ago and they, they were sort of veterans like
18:42
you of the, of the Hong Kong resistance.
18:45
I think like maintaining Taiwan as as it is a self governing
18:49
political entity, it is an overwhelming consensus of
18:52
Taiwanese people and any action that are trying to oppose or
18:57
revoke that sort of reality is a bit intrusion to their right.
19:03
That definitely has a lot of similarity to what Hong Kong
19:06
people demanded wanted, which is a self governing district, self
19:11
governing city. But sadly, I think with the rise
19:16
of Xi Jinping, with the rise of is path confidence, cultural
19:20
confidence, that all sort of confidence that he encode in the
19:24
party playbook and in the constitutions.
19:28
There is just no room for any sort of open society, political
19:33
diversity, freedom of speech or even universal suffrage in its
19:37
own realm of influence. And, and, and I think if we
19:41
continue to fall in line by portraying the, the, the issue
19:46
of China and Taiwanese, a matter of Chinese internal affairs that
19:50
sort of like fall into the narrative of Xi Jinping.
19:53
And there is no room for the other countries to to be part of
19:58
that conversation. But in fact, this is this
20:01
shouldn't be the case. Like there are many countries
20:04
that has a sake in that conversation.
20:07
But when when we look at the impacts of the war in Iran and
20:11
the economic impact globally of the blockade of the Straits of
20:14
Hormuz, what does that tell us about what the world's view of a
20:20
blockade around Taiwan might be? I mean, that would be
20:23
economically disastrous. I think people haven't really
20:25
kind of absorbed the economic impact globally of stopping
20:30
electronics coming out of Taiwan on the world economy.
20:33
Yeah, what we've seen in the Straits of Hormuz is a textbook
20:36
example of a global checkpoint actually being choked.
20:40
And then what happens and we all feel it, you know, the price of
20:44
everything goes up. The price of energy has gone up.
20:48
And a war that Trump started, he can't quite finish because the
20:52
opposition, although he can, Trump can legitimately say we've
20:57
destroyed the Air Force and we've destroyed this and that
21:00
and we've decapitated their leadership.
21:02
They're still there. So, you know, as far as the
21:06
Chinese are concerned, that gives them pause for thought,
21:09
doesn't it, about whether they how they deal with Taiwan going
21:15
forward and the importance of those microchips from Taiwan
21:21
reaching the rest of the global economy.
21:24
What about Iran itself and the and the Straits of Hormuz?
21:27
I mean, obviously that that is that was China's route to buying
21:32
the vast majority of oil that was being exported from Iran,
21:36
and that has stopped. But it was 13% of Chinese supply
21:40
of oil, so it wasn't as important as it as it is to to
21:44
some other countries. I think not only is China
21:48
feeling the effects of an economy that was already slower
21:53
than than than what Chinese consumers had been used to, but
21:57
it's also been a blow for Chinese diplomacy.
22:03
As I mean, it was only three years ago that China negotiated
22:07
the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi
22:11
Arabia. It was a really big win for
22:14
China on the world stage. And now it's in tatters.
22:18
And the Americans were very worried that the Chinese were
22:20
kind of suddenly being missed a negotiator.
22:23
But it's, you know, it's, it's, it's what happens when you have
22:28
AUS president who tends to lose interest in things or tends to
22:34
move on from one solve trying to solve 1 conflict to the next.
22:38
And I think the Chinese would like to see themselves as, as
22:41
having an opportunity there, which is not in that particular
22:44
case in the Gulf has been snatched away from them.
22:47
But that said, you know, the Chinese have never criticised
22:53
Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
22:54
So they can't have it both ways. They can't.
22:56
They can't be a global policeman and yet continue with what they
23:01
have, which is a consistent theme of ideal ideological
23:06
opposition to the West. Would the Chinese have told
23:09
Trump that we want you to lift your blockade on Iran or, or or
23:14
would they? As you know, a lot of the
23:16
speculation in advance was that they won't want to look like
23:20
they're hurting. They won't want to look like
23:23
they're hurting, and similarly, Trump won't want to look like
23:26
he's gone to Beijing to ask the Chinese to intervene.
23:31
So quite tellingly, just before Trump left Washington, he said
23:35
we don't need China's help in in solving Iran.
23:38
In fact, he does. He needs the help of as many
23:40
countries as he can get. So this was 2 great powers who
23:43
are both in great pain, putting on brave faces.
23:46
Yes, I think that's right. And, you know, who was
23:49
supplicating whom? So.
23:50
So what you had was a bit of a score draw between two world
23:54
leaders who were seen to be getting along.
23:58
And one thing we should remember is that I think there are
24:01
another three meetings between the two men planned.
24:04
So the good news, I think, for the global economy is that
24:09
they're going to carry on talking.
24:10
So President Trump has invited CEA to Washington at the end of
24:14
September. Chinese have accepted.
24:17
So I think the good news is in a very volatile world, these two
24:22
men are talking and they're going to carry on talking, which
24:25
can only be a good thing. Does that fill you and your
24:27
colleagues with great dismay that she gets lauded like this
24:30
and invited to Washington and told he's a great man?
24:35
There was a time when we, we thought about dealing with
24:39
dictators, dealing with people who commit a lot of crimes
24:43
against humanities that we have to deal with it with care.
24:47
Because rolling red carpet for them could probably in one way
24:51
or another feeling like we, we, we are not sort of recognizing
24:57
is bad behaviours in the country.
24:59
And everything that we care is about interest is about money.
25:03
And the discussion about values, discussion about democracy fade
25:07
away in, in, in, in terms of realpolitik.
25:10
And I think this is exactly the the distribution that we are in.
25:16
President Trump is not someone who would uphold certain values
25:21
and then saying that we are going to sort of like protect
25:26
that even at a cost of certain national interest.
25:29
Like everything about bring from him and his line of politics is
25:34
about being America first. And, and I think that that that
25:40
has post certain worries for people who care about state of
25:44
democracy around the world. But do you, do you think there
25:47
is that, do you think there are things that that are at stake
25:51
for Western democracies that we don't seem to recognise in our
25:56
treatment of people like the Chinese president and just
26:02
forgetting about human rights and democracy and all those
26:04
things and saying we need a trading relationship now the
26:07
world economy is more important? There are two parallel that are
26:12
happening. Global politics, dictators are
26:14
becoming more united. You you, you've got a new terms
26:18
of like access of the access of dictators just coined a couple
26:21
months ago when leaders from China, from Russia, from North
26:25
Korea, from Iran, like they were sitting together.
26:28
And then you've got another parallel that's ongoing.
26:30
Democracies are sort of like a little bit like be becoming less
26:36
united, like there are many democratic countries that are
26:40
flaming against each other's on different issues, different
26:43
lines of things. And, and I think this is
26:46
something that as a political activist who are ever getting
26:50
democratic rights for people in Hong Kong, in China and around
26:53
the world, that we are stuck in a very difficult situation
26:57
because we we are seeing all these dictators that they're
27:03
getting help from each other. And while we are trying to hold
27:07
them accountable for their bad behaviors, seemingly we don't
27:10
get as much support and as much help from our allies that we
27:14
used to think that that they are standing behind, that they're
27:17
standing behind us, that we're working together.
27:19
But for now that social support has faded.
27:21
So I think it is a big issue for us.
27:24
I. Suppose what I'm getting at as
27:26
well, though, beyond that is if you, if you talk about
27:28
dictators, by which I guess you mean she and Putin, you know,
27:33
being being cozied up to by a great power leader like Trump.
27:39
Is there something about our democracies that is also being
27:43
weakened by this? It's very difficult for for us
27:47
to to in that situation where we advocate for democratic rights,
27:53
democracy and we try to look at elsewhere by providing example.
27:57
They're doing amazingly with the sort of rights and we're trying
28:01
to look there and there's no one.
28:04
And that gives us a, a difficult sport to just try to validate
28:11
why we have to put up so much effort and try to fight for
28:15
these rights when there aren't many good examples that we can
28:21
refer to in, in nowadays. So I I think.
28:24
Does that include Britain? You don't.
28:26
You don't see Britain as a democratic example anymore.
28:29
Of course, like it is a a great example of democratic countries
28:33
that we, we, we just got some of the cases about the the Chinese
28:38
spies in the UK that the UK government has taken really
28:41
strong stands and find them out and then warn against these
28:45
intrusion of national security and also personal safety of my
28:49
and of my fellows. And the UK is still a very
28:52
strong democracy, but the state of global democracy, we're in a
28:56
backsliding for more than two decades.
28:59
And then you've got a big division, you've got economy is
29:04
not doing well. And then you have a lot of sort
29:09
of like democratic countries going against each other along
29:13
many different lines and many different things.
29:15
So I, I would say that there are definitely democratic countries
29:19
that they are operating well, but it's less and less common
29:24
and. I mean do do you mean, do you
29:26
mean do you mean America? You know it is the problem that
29:29
when American democracy appears weak.
29:32
America is definitely Troy. Democracy activists around the
29:35
world lose their beacon. It's definitely one of the
29:38
examples that we look up to, but not of course like not limited
29:42
to that. And there are lots of human
29:47
rights efforts around the world that are also supported by the
29:50
sort of infrastructure that the US and provides.
29:54
So I think like that's definitely not an easy years
29:58
from the workers that really on the grounds, but they.
30:00
And I think I think the same thing is happening militarily.
30:03
So, you know, the Japanese really close allies of the
30:08
Americans for decades now looking at Trump prevaricating
30:13
over Taiwan and thinking, well, what's happening to the military
30:17
alliance, which is not just NATO, it's it's much bigger than
30:19
that about about, you know, what happens if, if China does take
30:24
military action? Look at the British who, you
30:27
know, sent one of their two aircraft carriers to the Pacific
30:31
precisely to send a message that, you know, we stand with
30:34
the Japanese and the Australians in, you know, protecting Seaways
30:39
around the Strait of Taiwan and off the Philippines as well.
30:42
So, you know, we saw it first in Ukraine.
30:46
We saw Trump appearing to side with Vladimir Putin, saying to
30:52
Vladimir Zelensky, you don't hold all the cards, but
30:55
belittling him at one point, removing intelligence
30:59
cooperation. And so there's this massive
31:03
degree of mistrust and sort of rethinking about, you know, what
31:06
are we? You know, where is America in
31:07
all this? Can we, can we rely on them?
31:10
And a big question mark this week is over Taiwan.
31:14
You mentioned the Chinese spies case here in Britain.
31:17
Now, obviously you're you're you're on the Chinese list, if
31:20
you like. I mean, So what does that mean
31:22
for your daily life? I have to be more vigilant than
31:28
ordinary people because there is a bounty on my head.
31:32
I'm on the want to list. I that that's one thing that
31:37
really concerned me the most is when we had this trial on the
31:40
Hong Kong ETO case where they have a staff working for the ETO
31:44
and also a staff working for the, the, the border control in
31:50
of the UK. That they both committed the
31:52
surveillance and there was a, a piece of evidence in the court
31:59
saying that the border staff is using his own computer to have
32:06
access to information to people like me.
32:09
It was for me, it's, it's definitely quite shocking
32:13
because I, I can be vigilant on the streets to make sure no one
32:16
follows me. I can be good at like Internet
32:19
security, digital security, so that I don't leave like Internet
32:22
footprint that can expose my personal details.
32:25
But there are certain things I have to provide to the
32:28
government. If there are government
32:31
insiders, they can easily access my information, for example, my
32:34
whereabouts. That would put me in a sort of
32:37
like a virtual situation. Just explain the ETO.
32:41
Yeah, the Hong Kong Economic Trade Office, which is like the
32:44
representative office of Hong Kong government in the UK.
32:47
So they were involved in a case in a national security law case
32:52
in, in the UK where the, the they they, they, they sort of
32:57
order some, some surveillance and, and, and, and following
33:03
the, the Hong Kong distance in the UK, in the UK.
33:07
How far do you think it goes? I mean, when you say there's a
33:09
bouncy on your head and they may be surveilling you, do you
33:14
actually fear for your life? In terms of how aggressive that
33:21
the Chinese government trying to harm overseas activist is
33:27
definitely less aggressive than the Russian one.
33:29
We we've got the Navani case, which everyone knows that the
33:33
Russian authority was behind it. My concern for my personal
33:38
safety is not that immense to to, to that degree that I'm I'm
33:43
not worrying about my life. But yeah, it goes with a lot of
33:49
restriction in terms of where you go in terms of how public
33:53
you can be. I try to live relatively low
33:57
profile life. For example, I am a bit worried
34:01
when I engage with people who I don't know, strangers, not sure
34:06
what their intentions are. And that was definitely an
34:09
effect to try to isolate you, itemize you, that people who you
34:13
used to know, especially those who live in Hong Kong, that they
34:16
cut off connection with you just because of the worry of
34:20
secondary impacts to them. So I would say that the impact
34:24
is much more about psychological and try to isolate you as a
34:29
human being, as individual and just make you worry about, yeah,
34:34
your personal information being exposed.
34:38
What do you think about the, the anti China political sort of
34:46
alliance here in parliament and the warnings that they make
34:50
about Chinese threats to Britain?
34:53
Do you think they're right when they portray China as a, you
34:59
know, not just a strategic threat, but an actual threat to
35:02
Britain and British infrastructure?
35:05
I always say that most people who are critical to China is
35:08
actually not anti China is most of us love the people when we,
35:14
we, we sort of, we're not against the country, but but the
35:17
regime itself. And, and the regime is stated
35:20
very clearly that they are going to, you know, promote the, the,
35:28
the authoritarianism to, to ask for their nationals, especially
35:33
Chinese nationals where they have sort of relationship with
35:37
to, to work for them. And they have intelligence laws
35:40
returns to guarantee that if they want a certain piece of
35:44
information from you as a Chinese nationals, you have to
35:47
comply. Otherwise you will be violating
35:50
the intelligence intelligence law.
35:52
I think like all these combined with, with the sort of
35:55
aggressive behaviours of Chinese government overseas.
35:58
That is indeed a, a big concern, especially when they try to buy
36:03
like sensitive industry in the UK.
36:05
And you know, the Chinese, the, the, the mega Chinese embassy
36:09
discussion that they have a sort of capacity to do more
36:13
surveillance and, and intelligence work.
36:17
I think these are are really legitimate concerns and worries.
36:21
And, and do you think that the British government sort of
36:24
toning down of its rhetoric when it comes to China is is a
36:29
mistake? For many exile activists from
36:35
Hong Kong and from China living in the UK, we are indeed feeling
36:41
these sort of warming up of the UK China relationship may result
36:46
in a compromise of their stance towards dehumanized issue in
36:50
Hong Kong and whether they they are as active to protect and
36:56
help the Hong Kong BNO immigration in the UK.
37:02
And I would say that all the threats have not been stopped.
37:07
We are still worried about whether we criticize the Hong
37:10
Kong government and families back in Hong Kong, their, their
37:13
docks, their, their doors are being knocked.
37:16
And we've seen people who are critical towards the Hong Kong
37:19
government when they travel back to Hong Kong from other
37:22
countries, they get locked up, they they get jailed just
37:26
because of their speech. So I would say that there is a
37:30
worry about whether the UK government would sort of like
37:34
make any form of compromise of our own safety and, and how much
37:40
that they would try to hold, hold, hold, hold the Hong Kong
37:43
government accountable on these basis.
37:45
And Jonathan, I mean, is Britain basically aligned with the
37:48
American position or is there a difference?
37:51
I think there's a difference of quite considerable degree.
37:55
I mean, Keir Starmer was in Beijing quite recently and you
37:59
get the standard British line is which is we always raise the
38:02
issue of, of human rights. And I'm sure that they do.
38:06
But the question is how quickly do they move on to issues of, of
38:11
trade and, and indeed regional stability in the, you know, the
38:16
question of Taiwan as well. So yeah, I, I think the British
38:21
would not wish to be seen in the same boat as the Americans.
38:27
But you know. What do you mean by that?
38:29
Sorry, do you mean that they they don't want to, they don't
38:32
want to be threatening war or they don't want to be cosying up
38:35
on trade? I think that a Labour government
38:39
would wish to put Clearwater between itself and the Americans
38:44
on the issue of human rights. But it is a question of degree.
38:48
And as I, I, I, you know, those of us have remember that when
38:53
Robin Cook was a Labour Foreign Secretary, you know, 2530 years
38:58
ago, you know, human rights was way up the agenda and it, and it
39:02
has just come down. And I think having the most
39:05
powerful man in the world being Donald Trump has an effect on
39:08
all of us. It it has changed the level of
39:12
debate when it comes to human rights.
39:15
We must leave it there. Nathan Moore, thank you very
39:16
much indeed. Jonathan, thank you.
39:18
That's the forecast. Until next time, Bye.
39:20
Bye.