Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 196 - 1/13/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 196 - 1/13/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 196 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday. A new week begins as we enter
0:37
the middle portion here of January with NFL playoffs in
0:41
full swing. We got one more wild card game
0:44
here tonight between the Rams and the Vikings.
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I got to play on that game for you.
0:48
Also very important to get a key number.
0:50
We're hovering around 2 1/2 here, so we're going to talk
0:52
about our options and how we can handle this one to hopefully
0:55
improve our chances of winning or covering, of course.
0:59
And then also, I do have a play for you in college basketball, a
1:01
low bet, obscure sharp line move and a play in the NBA.
1:05
Late night game here where there's a couple different
1:08
factors at play here, but I'm hoping that this team can come
1:11
through for us and win the game. So a three pack overall guys,
1:14
one NFL playoff game for you. Monday Night Football 1 college
1:17
basketball in one NBA. As always, 3 bets.
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Let's see if we can eke out a 2IN1 winning night.
1:23
Now looking back toward the weekend, hope everyone had a
1:25
great weekend. I would call it a so so weekend
1:28
from a betting perspective. Now I've been playing these dogs
1:31
here in the NFL postseason. Had a couple good hits here with
1:33
the Texans. Remember everyone and their
1:35
mother was on the Chargers, yet you had that juiced up Texans
1:39
plus 3 -, 115 good system matches here with basically
1:43
short dogs doing very well, three or less.
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And then also great hit with the Commanders.
1:47
Last night. Commanders were in a very
1:49
similar situation, getting three points.
1:51
I was getting greedy saying can I get a hook?
1:53
Well, the hook never showed itself, but there was juice
1:55
liability commanders plus 3 -, 115 and they want a thriller
1:59
there. And you may have even had the
2:00
under 50 1/2. That was a contrarian play that
2:03
we talked about. Unfortunately, those are the
2:05
only two dogs that bark. So dogs overall, two and three.
2:08
ATSI played the Steelers plus 10 man.
2:11
They just could not stop a Nosebleed, couldn't score any
2:13
points. There's a backdoor cover
2:14
opportunity, which would've been nice.
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Unfortunately, also, if you look at last night, the Green Bay
2:21
Packers complete no show penalties, injuries, There's a
2:25
chance there if you played the five and a half to backdoor
2:28
cover and they couldn't come through.
2:29
The one that was really frustrating to me was the Denver
2:31
Broncos because boy did we do our part.
2:34
I got the Broncos +9 closing line value that game. close 7
2:38
1/2, they score an opening opening series touchdown up 7.
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Nothing. I'm like, oh, we might be able
2:43
to cover this one and then they do absolutely nothing moving
2:46
forward and fail and and fail to cover that game.
2:49
So dogs not quite what we want two and three ATS and then the
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one that really was frustrating aside from Amanda Reboss letting
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us down in the UFC was Friday night.
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Oh my God, Texas, Ohio State got a great number with Texas plus 6
3:03
1/2 end up closing at 5 1/2 game on the line.
3:06
I actually tweeted this out and it kind of went viral a little
3:08
bit. It got a lot of hits on social,
3:10
social media got quote tweeted, but Steve Sharkeesian down by 7
3:15
game on the line, couple minutes left.
3:17
You have 4 opportunities, 1st and goal from the one to punch
3:22
it in. Not only do you not bring in
3:24
Arch Manning, who has been a great, you know, short, short
3:27
line, you know, 4th down rusher here, but you pitch it backwards
3:31
and then you throw it twice and you fail to cover.
3:33
So that was just just brutal there and Steve Sarkisian,
3:36
obviously he's a a smart football guy, but I I'm no, I'm
3:39
no genius here, but I think if you have first and goal from the
3:42
one, why not run it four times up the middle, put in a jumbo
3:45
package. Of course, these these coaches
3:48
get way too cute, think they're think they're smarter than
3:50
everyone when maybe being too smart, you outsmarter yourself.
3:53
So that was brutal to see the and then, of course, you know,
3:56
they throw it. Quinnuers fumbles it.
3:58
They they bring it back. So again, dogs not quite where
4:01
you want them to be. Let's see if we can kick off our
4:03
week here, hopefully on a hot note.
4:05
Now start off the game, start off the day here today on the
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pod 196 ASG pod. Let's talk about the final wild
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card weekend game, Minnesota LA Rams.
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Now we're going to talk about what we've seen in terms of line
4:18
movement. There's also a couple weird
4:21
factors here in terms of changing of the venue, which
4:23
we've talked about. And then I'm going to give you
4:25
my bet, but also a bet that I think you want to hold out for a
4:28
specific number. So going into this one,
4:31
obviously final game of wild card weekend, 8:00 here tonight,
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we have the Vikings coming in 14 and 3.
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They're the five seed. They just got crushed by the
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Lions 31 to 9 and week 18 did not cover as a three-point Rd.
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dog. Meanwhile, the Rams, 10 and
4:43
seven, they're the four seed. They just fell to the Seahawks
4:46
30 to 25 and week 18. But remember, they put in Jimmy
4:49
G rested their guys. They did cover that game as a 7
4:52
1/2 point home dog. So what are we seeing in terms
4:55
of line movement? Well, this one has been all over
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the place. So the early opener here,
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Minnesota -2 1/2. Now early in the week we saw
5:02
some pretty one way smart money going with the Rams in the
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points. That plus 2 1/2 Rams got hit,
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brought the line all the way down to Rams plus 1 1/2 or even
5:11
plus one. But then we saw a change in
5:14
venue, of course, because of the terrible wildfires that are
5:17
plaguing Los Angeles right now. Our hearts go out to everyone
5:20
dealing with these horrific fires.
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It's just just terrible to see heartbreaking people losing
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their homes, all their possessions.
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Again, all these people always say the same thing.
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It's like, hey, you know, we can replace the possessions as long
5:32
as we're OK, which is the grand scheme of things with not to go
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on a tangent, but there was this one person who they're
5:37
interviewing and their son had won this art project and made
5:42
this basically painted this, this mural of a lighthouse.
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And the guy was crying saying, man, I wish I could have saved
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that photo or that that drawing for my son.
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So just beautiful. Just heartbreaking and brutal to
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hear. But anyway, from a vetting
5:55
perspective, they move the game, can't play this game in LA
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because of the fire, so they moved it to Arizona.
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Now as soon as we saw this game move from Rams home game to
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neutral site in Arizona, home of the Cardinals, we saw that line
6:08
tick back up. So we saw when it bottomed out,
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Rams plus 1 + 1 1/2. Now it's back up to Rams plus 2
6:15
1/2. So just from a betting
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standpoint, to answer the the final question of how much is
6:21
home field advantage worth? Again, I always mention this,
6:23
but it used to always be 3 points no matter what you give
6:26
it to the home team. Nowadays it's much less than
6:28
that. Typically there's only a couple
6:30
stadiums like, you know, Arrowhead or Mile High or 12th
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Man in Seattle where it's literally still worth around
6:35
three points. Some places like the Jaguar
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Stadium is worth like basically less than 1/2, like 1/2 point
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basically. But oddsmakers going from 1 1/2
6:44
one now to 2 1/2, they're basically telling you that home
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field for the Rams at Sofi is worth about a point.
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Now one thing that hasn't changed aside from this, again,
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back and forth line movement down toward Rams, back up toward
6:57
Minnesota because now it's a neutral site is that the public
7:01
is sticking with Minnesota now. Currently, Minnesota is getting
7:04
68% of spread bets at DraftKings, 60% of bets at
7:08
Circa. So public, even though they saw
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Minnesota get rolled in that prime time game against the
7:13
Lions. Donald didn't look too good in
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that one. That's I'm going to mention him
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in here in a second, but they still see that 14 and 3 Rams are
7:20
only 10 and seven. It's a short number for a 14 and
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three team. Hey, let's go Minnesota here.
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But this provides an opportunity to bet against the public and
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play the Rams in one of our better playoff system matches.
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So Rams right off the bat, I like them because it's a Monday
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Night Football game, playoff game, extremely heavily bet and
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we're betting against the public again, betting against the
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public hasn't had the greatest year this year.
7:43
It's been a weird public year, but you're still getting the
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Rams. Only about 1/3 of tickets here,
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receiving about 1/3 of tickets and a heavily bet primetime
7:52
game. So I still want to stick to my
7:53
roots of betting against the drunk guys at the bar who are
7:56
saying, yeah, you got a ham on Minnesota.
7:59
But here's where it gets good for the Rams.
8:01
If you noticed over the weekend and you played the dogs like I
8:04
did, the short dogs did very well.
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Texans commanders both getting three.
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It was the bigger dogs that could not cover Denver, Green
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Bay, Pittsburgh. So even though faves were three
8:15
and two against the spread, you know, it was the short
8:17
favorites. I couldn't get it done.
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The bigger favorites, ironically enough, covered those numbers.
8:22
So what are we looking at here? Short dog, short favorite.
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So system matches here for the Rams first would be short
8:30
playoff dog getting three points or less. 2 and O against the
8:33
spread this postseason. Again, Texans Commanders 23 and
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1080 S 70% thirty 6% ROI since 2017.
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Wild card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs
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the previous year that would match with the Rams that also
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match with the Texans when they're playing Herbert who had
8:50
missed the playoffs the previous year.
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Those teams want to know. ATS this postseason. 15 and one
8:55
against the spread. 94 percent, 83% ROI since 2017.
9:00
I'm also going to put some stock into home field advantage.
9:04
Even though the site was changed.
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LA could have a good rest. First tired edge.
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What do I mean by that? Well, one week 18.
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How did these two teams handle that game?
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Vikings were playing for the one seed.
9:15
They played everybody, all their starters played the whole game.
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Very physical game against the Lions versus the Rams, who had
9:22
nothing to play for and SAT most of their starters against the
9:26
Seahawks. Matthew Stafford didn't play.
9:28
Puka, Nakua, Cooper Cup, Kyron Williams, all your big guys,
9:32
especially on offense for the Rams, did not play.
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Now, the other angle here, aside from just betting against a
9:38
Minnesota team who had a tough game against the Lions, is that
9:41
teams who play the Lions the following week, they've gone 6
9:45
and 10 this year. So it's kind of a hangover.
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You play a tough game against a physical opponent, you tend not
9:50
to bounce back and perform very well the next game.
9:52
So that'll be a fate of Minnesota here tonight.
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I'm also just going to put some faith into the experience, the
9:57
experience of Sean McVay and Stafford having been there, done
10:01
that. Sam Darnold, first playoff game.
10:04
Also, if you look at Kevin O'Connell, who might win coach
10:06
of the year, we'll see if it's him or Campbell, but he had one
10:11
game, I want to say, was it a couple years against the Giants?
10:13
I remember I took the Giants in the points.
10:15
They won that game out right. But O'Connell, not much playoff
10:18
experience. To me, though, it's more of
10:20
McVeigh, Stafford versus Darnold.
10:22
I'm going to go with the experienced coach and
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quarterback versus Darnold, who again in a quasi playoff game
10:28
against Detroit, did not play very well.
10:31
Again, throwing the ball to the other team missed, you know,
10:34
missing throws. Again, looked like more of The
10:37
Jets. Sam Darnold seen Ghost there.
10:39
So I'll put that into the handicap as well.
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So my play is I'm going Rams. But here's why I wanted to
10:45
really stress the importance of getting the best number.
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I really want the Rams +3. So I'm talking to you early
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afternoon right now, late afternoon, whatever you want to
10:55
call it, around 3:00. Now we're at -2 1/2 Rams or
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sorry -2 1/2 Minnesota -115 at a few shops.
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So between now and 8:00 now and kickoff, I haven't bet this game
11:07
yet because I'm holding out for a three.
11:09
I'm looking for the three. I want the three again, if Rams
11:13
lose by three, I want to push instead of lose my bet.
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So I'm going to hold out for it. It's juiced up toward Minnesota.
11:18
Maybe you get a ton of public money, got people getting out of
11:21
work loading up here on Minnesota because I think this
11:24
line is too short and maybe they like the fact that it's no
11:27
longer in in LA. But maybe that's an over
11:30
adjustment based on the venue change.
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And again, I want that key number, so I'm going to hold out
11:34
for the three. Again, have multiple outs, shop
11:36
for the best line. When I see a three, I'm going to
11:38
hit it. Now let's say the three never
11:40
pops. Let's say it never gets the
11:42
three. Well, I'll take the 2 1/2.
11:44
But I think there's nothing wrong with waiting at this point
11:47
to see if you can get it. Maybe you have a book that allow
11:50
you to buy it up. I'd be willing to buy it up to
11:52
+3, but no juice higher than -120 I don't really want to go
11:56
higher than that. But then also, great teaser play
11:59
if you want to tease the Rams again, take the Rams plus 2 1/2
12:03
to 8 1/2. Pretty good Wong teaser, going
12:05
through a couple key numbers. And I did see, we'll talk the
12:09
national championship game. But the Ohio State Buckeyes are
12:12
down to like -8 1/2. They were as high as one.
12:14
Point is like -10 I don't know. I'm thinking out loud.
12:16
You want to take Ohio State down -8 or -8 1/2 down to -2 -, 2 1/2
12:23
and pair that by taking the Rams up.
12:25
I'm also looking at Baltimore Buffalo again, haven't gotten in
12:28
a lot of these haven't even mentioned these divisional games
12:31
yet because it's very early. But you know, Buffalo open -1
12:35
1/2. Some shops are going to
12:36
Baltimore now -1 1/2. I'm thinking can you tease up
12:39
Buffalo 1 1/2 up to seven and a half and pair that.
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I just think if you're going to, if you want, if you're worried
12:46
about not getting the three and you want to tease up Rams, you
12:49
got to find a dance partner. Now the other dance partner
12:51
might be in this game. Want to mention the total real
12:54
quick guys. I would lean sharp under play.
12:57
This is basically a 47 1/2 that hasn't moved.
13:00
You might be able to hold out and find a book at 48, but
13:03
that's notable to me because you're getting upwards of 70% of
13:06
bets at DraftKings on the over if the line really hasn't moved
13:09
at all. So it tells me some liability.
13:11
Line freeze liability on the under.
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We have seen these unders 4 and one so far.
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Wild card weekend. They're now 59% since 2017 in
13:19
wild card round when the high total 47 or more in a postseason
13:23
game. The unders 2 and O this year you
13:25
had the Bills game and the Commander's game, both high
13:29
total more than 47, both went under.
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Now that is 64 percent, 47 or more go under in a postseason
13:36
game since 23. So do you want to tease that one
13:39
up? Do you want to take Rams 2 1/2
13:41
to 8 1/2 and pair that with 47 1/2 up to what 53 1/2 and go
13:49
under there? Maybe that could be worth a look
13:51
as well. But Long story short, guys
13:54
almost likely either be on hopefully plus 3 Rams or plus 2
13:57
1/2 if I can't get the three. But as always, you can follow
14:01
the official bets of the ASG pod from Juice Reel.
14:04
We'll all that where all the official bets go to.
14:07
So you can keep an eye on that. I'll tweet it out later today
14:09
from my Twitter account at Josh under score insights.
14:12
And then you can always just go to the Juice Reel social tab,
14:15
click find juicers, click type in ASG under score podcast.
14:20
So Long story short, I'm on the Rams, but I'm just going to hold
14:22
out for a three. If not, I will take the 2 1/2.
14:25
But let's go Rams. By the way, our friends at
14:28
Rhythm have Rams +2. So basically a half point edge
14:32
there. Hopefully on the Rams now after
14:35
a huge game, we just mentioned 8:00 tonight.
14:38
Let's go to a little appetizer here, an added game, obscure
14:41
game in college hoops. Game three O 650-730-6508 The
14:45
American Eagles against Loyola Maryland.
14:49
I remember when I was in high school, you know where I, I
14:50
shopped, got my, my, my, my flannel shirts.
14:54
American Eagle. So American Eagles, Loyola
14:56
Maryland obviously not the sexiest game in the world.
14:59
Low bed obscure game. American comes in 8-9.
15:02
They've won two or three. Loyola Maryland comes in seven
15:05
and eight. They've also won two or three.
15:08
But this one is meaningful to me for a couple reasons. 1 is that
15:11
this is a added game, extra Game, 6 digit rotation number.
15:15
You can actually watch this one. It's going to be on CBS Sports
15:17
Network. If you guys get that Channel, If
15:19
you're like me and you pay out the you know what for your cable
15:22
channels, at least they give you this one.
15:24
But anyway, added game, extra game, obscure game.
15:27
We always talk and always mention that these are the games
15:29
that the public has no interest in because they don't care about
15:31
the teams #1 if you can't name me the mascots, these are
15:35
probably teams the public doesn't care about.
15:37
By the way, Eagles, obviously Lola, Maryland, the Greyhounds,
15:41
if you're interested. But over time I've learned to
15:44
really like these games because even though the public can't
15:47
even find these games on their app, you got to find an added
15:49
game, extra game tab. They're hard to locate, no
15:52
interest in playing these teams, You know nothing about them.
15:55
Even though public struggles with these games, this is a
15:57
situation where if you see a line move, typically they're
16:00
very meaningful because they are coming from not public betters
16:03
who have targeted American and Loyola Maryland, but from wise
16:07
guys, sharp betters who don't care if it's a big game, small
16:10
game, if they have an edge, they're going to play it.
16:12
And it looks like they like, and I do too, Loyola Maryland.
16:16
There's some money line play for me.
16:17
I got Loyola Maryland on the money line at -137 at FanDuel.
16:22
What I like about this one is the move toward Loyola Maryland.
16:24
This game opened at basically a pick em, even had a couple shops
16:27
open. American -1 now it's flipped to
16:31
Loyola -2 I even see a 2 1/2 out there.
16:35
A lot of these twos are juiced up.
16:37
So why is this line going toward toward Loyola Maryland when
16:40
basically it's a low back game and public has no interest in it
16:44
tells me that this line move was driven almost specifically and
16:47
and solely by smart money siding with Loyola Maryland.
16:51
Now DraftKings has some pretty good bet splits on this game.
16:55
71% bets, 82% dollars on the spread on Loyola, 72% dollars.
17:01
Sorry, 72% bets 78% dollars on Loyola Maryland on the money
17:06
line. And you might say to yourself,
17:07
Josh, 72 percent, 80%, that's public, right?
17:11
No, even though that's a majority of tickets by technical
17:14
definition, that's probably a majority of sharp betters.
17:17
That's 7080% because again, public is not playing this
17:21
number. Then you add a little bit more
17:24
data to this one. One thing I'm going to bank on
17:26
his offensive rebound percentage.
17:28
Loyola Maryland is 31 percent on the boards versus only 23% for
17:32
American. That'll be ranking 150th for
17:35
Loyola versus 331 for American. Also, home Rd. is important to
17:40
me. One thing I notice is Loyola
17:42
Maryland, even though they have a losing record, they're four
17:44
and two at home this year. They played pretty well.
17:47
American, let's, let's hope this continues.
17:49
American is O and eight on the road this season.
17:52
Last little angle here. Thanks to our friends at Rhythm
17:55
who give us models on every game under the sun.
17:58
They have Loyola Maryland -1.9, so again, you're around A2 point
18:02
spread. You know, Loyola Maryland with
18:05
Via Rhythm is around a -, 1.9 favorite.
18:09
This is a game where, again, I'm going to money line.
18:11
It could be close. We'll do whatever it takes to
18:13
eke out a win. But I'm not going to lay A2 or
18:16
maybe even a 2 1/2, have them win by 1 and I lose my bet.
18:20
So low bet added obscure game, American versus Loyola Maryland,
18:24
Lions going to Maryland. That's where I'm going.
18:26
Give me Loyola Maryland, the Greyhounds on the money line.
18:29
I got them at -137. Now last bit of the night, let's
18:34
go to late night sweat here out in LA, San Antonio Spurs and the
18:38
LA Lakers 10:30 tonight. This is a game that we played on
18:43
NBATV. If you are interested in
18:46
sweating it, watching it. Hopefully we can get a couple LA
18:50
teams here to to win and cover tonight.
18:52
But match up here is interesting to me for a couple reasons.
18:55
One, we have the Spurs coming in 18 and 19 on the year.
18:59
They've lost three straight. You have the Lakers 20 and 16 on
19:02
the year, they've also lost two straight.
19:04
So both teams looking for a win, but there's pretty clear line
19:08
movement in favor of one team and that's the Lakers.
19:10
I'm going Lakers money line tonight.
19:12
Win the damn game. I got Lakers -164 at FanDuel.
19:16
Now, a lot of these books opened Lakers as low as -2 1/2 - 3.
19:22
You saw this line at one point get as high as -4 Now right now
19:26
looking at the numbers, basically Lakers are -3 1/2, but
19:29
they're juiced up -3 1/2 - 115. Like it may go further up to
19:33
four. So all movement liability has
19:36
pretty much been on the Lakers. Now couple things like about the
19:39
Lakers. So let's look at the bet splits
19:40
here at Circa on the spread, Lakers are getting 78% of bets
19:46
over 94% of dollars. So the sharps and Vegas pro and
19:49
Joe in favor of LA DraftKings little bit more split 59% bets,
19:55
but 86% dollars. Another really good low bets,
19:58
higher dollars bet split. Couple advantages here for LA.
20:01
One would be offensive efficiency.
20:04
Lakers rank 11th versus 18th for the Spurs.
20:08
Also home Rd. Spurs this year are only 6 and
20:11
11 on the road. Lakers are 12:00 and 5:00 at
20:13
home. Also, I'm going to put a little
20:16
edge here in favor of the Lakers because of the basically the
20:20
extended time off that they've had because of these awful LA
20:24
wildfires. Lakers haven't played since the
20:26
7th. Now the Spurs are rested too.
20:29
They haven't played since the 8th, but Spurs are really young
20:32
team. If you look at the Lakers, they
20:34
haven't played since the 7th. They've had literally 12345
20:38
almost six days off at this point.
20:40
So Lebron's 40, Anthony Davis, who's always hurt, I think he's
20:44
closing. I think he's like 3132.
20:46
You got some veterans, especially with LeBron who have
20:49
had about a week off. Hopefully that's a bigger
20:51
benefit to the rest of Lakers than the young San Antonio
20:54
Spurs. Lakers are two and O this year
20:57
against the Spurs. Excuse me, maybe added
21:00
motivation. I don't want to get too into the
21:03
emotions and sentimentality, but JJ Reddick, my, my, my guy.
21:08
I can call my guy cuz we used to do a show on DraftKings
21:10
together, Old man of the three. But he was talking about how he
21:14
lost his home. And Lakers have been really
21:17
embracing and trying to say, hey, we want to win it for the
21:19
community. Again, I'm not going to bet
21:20
based on those like heartstrings.
21:22
But if it makes him play a little harder cuz they want to
21:26
cheer up the, you know, the hometown fans who are dealing
21:28
with these terrible fires. Hey, I'll take that now.
21:31
Last angle here, Rhythm has the Lakers model that -3.3 or 3.4.
21:38
So you're kind of pretty much right on the number.
21:40
And then our friends at Juice Reel, the sharp mush indicator
21:43
and notice you have really good indicators here where the
21:46
sharpest people who have the Juice Reel app are playing the
21:49
Lakers and the worst betters are taking when Banyama in the
21:52
points on the spread, Lakers have a 25% sharp mush edge.
21:56
On the money line, they have a 49% sharp mush edge.
22:00
So you have a rested Lakers team.
22:02
We got line move in their favor. We got good bet splits.
22:05
We got home Rd. advantages, and we also have better offense and
22:09
rhythm and Drew Schreeler with us.
22:11
So I'm going to be a big Lakers fan.
22:12
Even though I'm a Celtics fan, I'm root for the hated Lakers
22:15
tonight. Give me the Lakers, hopefully
22:17
win this game. On the money line, I got him at
22:19
-164 So Lakers to win the game, Loyola Maryland to win the game,
22:25
and Rams at least 2 1/2. Hopefully we can hold out and
22:29
get a Rams +3. Now I want to mention real quick
22:32
just some of these, just some early thoughts on these
22:34
divisional round games. One I wanted to mention was
22:39
Houston, Kansas City. Now I feel like I played the
22:44
Texans, it wasn't Christmas, It was maybe right before that, the
22:47
week before, maybe it was Christmas, I don't remember.
22:49
But anyway, I took Houston, the points at Kansas City and they
22:52
did not cover for me. I do remember that.
22:54
I can tell you that this line, though, is pretty much stayed
22:57
around 7 1/2 at this point. Some eights out there.
23:01
Some shops are as high as 8 1/2 down to 8.
23:04
There's a little bit of money going here toward Houston.
23:07
There's an angle. I have fading division round
23:08
favorites off a buy. It's 58% ATS.
23:12
I'm going to reserve judgement on that one.
23:14
I assume it's going to be the teaser of the century taking KC,
23:17
you know -7 1/2 -, 8 down to 1 1/2 or two.
23:21
But I did want to mention that total.
23:23
That total was interesting to me because the Kansas City Houston
23:26
total open at around 42 1/2 or 42.
23:29
There's some 42 still out there, but a lot of books are at 41 1/2
23:33
and I looked at the splits and they look really good for the
23:35
under. 48% bets, 75% dollars again.
23:38
Wild card weekend Unders did just go four and one when the
23:41
total falls at least 1/2 point in a playoff game.
23:44
Two and one this year, 58% since 2017.
23:47
The weather looks like it's going to be extremely cold and
23:50
windy. 25° ten to 12 mile per hour winds.
23:54
This would qualify as a windy under and a playoff windy under
23:57
system match. Houston, by the way, was 11 and
24:00
six to the under during the regular season.
24:03
Chiefs were ten and seven to the under, so they were tied for the
24:06
1st and 2nd best under teams. And I remember those who were
24:10
maybe looking at the Texans under against the Chargers in
24:15
the first wild card game. That was going to go under until
24:18
Joe Mixon scored at the very end and he probably didn't have to
24:20
score that last touchdown. So I'm just thinking early on
24:23
Houston, Kansas City under that looks kind of sharp.
24:26
So we'll keep an eye on that. The other one that I wanted to
24:29
mention, so we're waiting on the last match up.
24:32
It'll be Eagles against either Minnesota or the Rams.
24:34
I'm hoping it's the Rams. It'll be interesting to see with
24:38
Washington, Detroit, how the public handles that because the
24:41
public loves the the Lions. But that's also a lot of points
24:45
for Jane Daniels, who continues to just look fantastic and look
24:49
wise beyond his ears. As of right now, the public is
24:53
still playing Detroit around 60% of bets at DraftKings, 80% of
24:57
bets at at Circa. But at one point, that line was
25:01
an opener. Detroit as high as -10 1/2.
25:04
It's all the way down to 9 1/2 or 9.
25:06
So maybe there's some early money that went Washington.
25:09
So again, let's see where that thing settles.
25:11
It's very early, but if you can get me back closer to 10, I may
25:15
have to play Washington plus 10 there.
25:17
Keep an eye out for that if they're still unpopular.
25:20
I do have some systems again, fading first round buys another
25:23
system. Divisional round dogs getting
25:24
seven or more. They're 59% over the last pretty
25:28
big sample around last 20 years or so.
25:31
Let's see how that develops. I would also look maybe toward
25:34
the under here, at least early on.
25:36
It open as high as like 50-6, really high under 5655 1/2.
25:41
Some of those 56 are now down to 55 1/2.
25:44
Let's see where that develops as well.
25:46
But that would be a playoff high total under to keep an eye out
25:49
for. And then the granddaddy of them
25:52
all, Baltimore Buffalo. I mean, that is just going to be
25:55
an unbelievable game. That is going to be your Sunday
25:58
night game, 6:30 PM in Buffalo. I'd love to see a snowstorm.
26:01
As of now, doesn't look like there's any any forecast of a
26:06
snowstorm. But this one's really
26:07
interesting because we've already seen some line movement
26:10
toward Baltimore. Now this game opened Buffalo
26:13
around a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
26:15
It's now down to a pick and some shops are now flipping to
26:18
Baltimore -1 -, 1 1/2. So, you know, I love a dog to
26:22
favorite. But I'm thinking, does Baltimore
26:25
become very, very trendy here? Like, right now, you're, you're
26:29
only around 54% of bets on the Ravens.
26:32
But if this continues to creep up toward Baltimore, like, let's
26:35
say Baltimore, the public just they love Lamar Jackson.
26:39
You know, they loved Derrick Henry.
26:41
Maybe they just get a ton of love and maybe they get up to -2
26:45
two and a half Now. We'll see.
26:46
My question is how far does this line continue to go toward
26:49
Baltimore because it definitely tells me that when the sign
26:52
first came out you had some sharp say it even at low limits.
26:55
Hey, Lamar Jackson has a dog. I believe he's like 12 and one
26:58
ATS, something crazy like that. They immediately hit Baltimore.
27:01
Now is that a head fake? Is that Billy Walters maybe who
27:04
truly likes Buffalo hitting Baltimore early, moving the
27:07
number and then he'll come back on Buffalo at a better price
27:10
plus 1 1/2 + 2. Again, how high will this move
27:13
to Baltimore is 1 1/2 as high as it goes and it comes back down.
27:18
This is just the type of game where I'll probably be money
27:21
lining one of the two sides. So it's going to be a relatively
27:24
cheap price. You know, why not?
27:26
Why not wait this thing out? But my my first thought is, hey,
27:30
respected money Baltimore early. But will that will that flip and
27:34
will we see that change? And we did see that under get
27:36
hit a little bit. I was 52 down to 51 1/2 and you
27:40
have a pretty good low bets higher dollar split in both for
27:44
both DraftKings and circa on that under.
27:46
So just some initial thoughts. But again, we're a week away.
27:50
You know, these games will be extremely heavily bet.
27:52
So let's let's see how these these lines develop.
27:55
And then after today's game, we'll get another game to look
27:57
at either again, Rams Eagles or Minnesota eagles.
28:01
I'm hoping it's the Rams. So that about does it for
28:04
episode 196, closing in on 200 episodes for the all systems go
28:09
sports betting pod. This is the part of the pot
28:11
where we wrap things up. And I first start by saying
28:14
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
28:16
out of your day, out of your busy lives to devote around 30
28:19
minutes to hopefully escape in the the annoyances, the
28:23
troubles, the you know, the crappy work week, you know your
28:25
boss who you hate, whatever issues you're dealing with, you
28:28
can just kind of, you know, kind of tune them out, listen to some
28:31
sharp betting breakdowns, hopefully cash them tickets
28:33
together. But thank you, thank you for for
28:35
pulling up a chair to the virtual bar and sweating games,
28:39
games and breakdowns together. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod
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and you want to learn more about sharp data-driven contrarian
28:45
betting, or First off, if you enjoy the pod, could you please
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give it a five star review would mean a lot to me.
28:52
Spotify or iTunes help us to continue to grow the pod.
28:56
But next, if you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
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if you want to support the team, let me know.
28:59
You appreciate the pod each day and there's one thing you can
29:02
do. We can go buy my book.
29:04
That's right, I'm an author. I wrote a book.
29:06
It's called the everything guide to sports betting.
29:08
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
29:11
betting, pick up a copy for you or a friend or a buddy or
29:14
colleague or a family member. Someone who maybe is new to
29:18
sports betting or is trying to get into it, doesn't know where
29:21
to start. Give them my book and teach them
29:23
to be a data-driven contrarian, better learning how to read the
29:26
market and pay attention to line moves, percentages, bet split
29:30
system matches, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet
29:33
in person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
29:36
a bankroll management plan. Chapters on all the major
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sports, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
29:41
Betting. So buy a copy, it's less than 20
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bucks, and bring it to the book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
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buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
29:49
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
29:52
Rhythm yet? My two favorite sports betting
29:54
apps and again after playing some I didn't see any great
29:57
player props. You know that jumped out to me
29:59
for tonight's game, but there were some good props.
30:01
I want to thank everyone who joined us on the Saturday live
30:04
stream because we highlighted Ladd Mcconkey going over.
30:07
We highlighted who else do we highlight James Cook going over
30:12
his rushing and the other one was Terry Mclaurin.
30:14
So we did have some good hits from the live stream, but rhythm
30:18
is fantastic for AI backed models and predictions for best
30:21
bets, game game bats and player props and then juice real.
30:25
It's great for if you just want to tell the robo Jackson best
30:28
bet picks. If you want to follow the all
30:29
systems go best bets. They're always located only on
30:32
juice reel. It costs 499 a week to follow
30:35
them. No, not 499 dollars $4.99 for a
30:40
week of plays again, hopefully getting better numbers if I'm
30:44
putting these out maybe before the the pod takes place, but
30:48
also think of it as a tip jar. If you enjoy the pod again, pods
30:51
free. Is it worth 5 bucks a week to to
30:54
listen to the pod? Hopefully I'm providing enough
30:56
insights to make that a worthy, worthy play for you.
30:59
You can sign up clicking that that social tab searching ASG
31:03
under score podcast or we can just click on the tweet that I
31:06
send out late afternoon, early evening every night for my
31:09
Twitter account at Josh under score insights.
31:12
But as well as the sharpmush indicator indicators, you're
31:14
going to get those arbitrage opportunities shopping for the
31:17
best lines, future prices all included when you download Juice
31:20
rail. So go to your App Store,
31:22
download rhythm, download juice rail.
31:24
It'll be off and running. Hopefully cash in some tickets
31:27
so that about a dozen guys, another pod here in the books.
31:29
Hope you have a great night tonight. 3 bets.
31:31
Can we get 2 out of three? Hopefully that is the goal.
31:34
But as always, I'll leave you with a couple things.
31:36
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
31:39
River in Rhode Island in the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
31:41
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
31:44
Boston or Plainridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
31:47
And my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the
31:49
desert where the true grinders get down.
31:51
Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest use
31:54
possible is found at the South Point.
31:56
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
31:58
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
32:00
Circa wherever, maybe you can show me Texans plus 3,
32:04
Commanders plus three. Those were my 22 favorite bets
32:08
of the weekend. Guess what?
32:09
First one's on me, next one's on you.
32:10
We're going to post about the book Sweat Sharp contrarian
32:13
plays all night long. So wish you the best of luck
32:16
everyone so we can get some winners here tonight.
32:18
And as always, remember hot. Hot when you're hot, when you're
32:22
cold, up, down, treading water, grinding.
32:25
Hopefully, regardless of your last night's performance or
32:29
recent performance, you always stay true to the model.
32:31
Level headed, never too high, never too low.
32:34
When you're hot, you're never as good as you think.
32:36
When you're cold, you're never as bad as you think.
32:38
Let's try to put the emotion to the side, put our bias to the
32:41
side. That game is based on what the
32:43
market is telling us. Will the market win every single
32:45
time? No.
32:46
But Long story short, if you consistently place yourself in
32:49
that sweet spot against the public, with the house, with the
32:52
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
32:55
If we can do that long term, and I'm confident that we can and
32:58
guess what we're going to, we're going to cash some tickets long
33:01
term and hopefully be successful winning sports bettors.
33:04
So have a great night everybody. See if we can cash some tickets
33:08
and of course, we'll be right back at it tomorrow on a big
33:11
Tuesday. That'll be episode 197 of the
33:14
All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
33:18
Good luck everybody and have a great Monday night.