Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / What most Americans get wrong about Social Security

Transcript

What most Americans get wrong about Social Security · The Financial Exchange Show

0:00
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
0:02
Speaker 1: is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
0:05
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
0:08
Speaker 1: the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
0:11
Speaker 1: or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
0:14
Speaker 1: not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
0:17
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
0:20
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
0:23
Speaker 1: this program do not endorse each other or their services.
0:25
Speaker 1: Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
0:28
Speaker 1: for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
0:34
Speaker 1: Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, your exclusive look
0:38
Speaker 1: at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
0:42
Speaker 1: your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
0:46
Speaker 1: and market trends, plus breaking business news every day. The
0:50
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
0:53
Speaker 1: Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
0:57
Speaker 1: heroes by visiting dav five K dot Boston and making
1:01
Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
1:05
Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong, Chuck, Mike.
1:10
Speaker 2: And Tucker with you. We got stocks trading in mixed
1:13
Speaker 2: territory today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about
1:19
Speaker 2: a third of a percent one hundred and forty five points,
1:21
Speaker 2: the SNB five hundred up about a quarter percent sixteen points,
1:25
Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq is up sixty three points are about
1:28
Speaker 2: a third of a percent, So again, kind of mixed.
1:31
Speaker 2: Uh Russell two thousand is down half a percent because
1:35
Speaker 2: I don't know, the Russell just gets beat up left
1:38
Speaker 2: and right and has been underperforming the S ANDP for
1:40
Speaker 2: quite a number of years with no end in sight,
1:43
Speaker 2: and did at this point. It's just been a tough
1:49
Speaker 2: couple decades to be a small cap investor, you know.
1:53
Speaker 2: But it is what it is. Tenure US Treasury selling
1:56
Speaker 2: off a touch, up three point two basis points to
1:58
Speaker 2: four point four to two percent. Mortgage News Daily has
2:02
Speaker 2: the national thirty year fixed rate average at six point
2:05
Speaker 2: seven eight percent yesterday, so probably bouncing back up into
2:07
Speaker 2: the low six to eight range on the back of
2:10
Speaker 2: this move up in yields. Oil West Text Intermediate up
2:15
Speaker 2: a dollar to sixty six twenty five per barrel, and
2:19
Speaker 2: we've got gold sliding twenty dollars and seventy cents per
2:23
Speaker 2: Troy ounce to thirty three, seventy six and ninety cents,
2:28
Speaker 2: down about two thirds of a percent after hours yesterday,
2:32
Speaker 2: Google or the company formerly known as Google, now known
2:37
Speaker 2: as Alphabet, reported earnings. They were strong to quite strong,
2:44
Speaker 2: and so Google stock up about one in three quarters
2:47
Speaker 2: percent today. On the other hand, Tesla the company still
2:51
Speaker 2: known as Tesla, they reported earnings as well, and their
2:54
Speaker 2: earnings were poor to quite poor, and so the stock
2:57
Speaker 2: is down eight point nine percent today and trading around
3:01
Speaker 2: three hundred and three bucks per share. Let's talk a
3:05
Speaker 2: little bit about the housing market, because we got some
3:09
Speaker 2: housing data. We've gotten a bunch of housing data this
3:11
Speaker 2: week that has come out, and basically what we are
3:16
Speaker 2: seeing is that the housing market is too expensive. It's
3:25
Speaker 2: the only way that I can phrase it. Inventory continues
3:28
Speaker 2: to grow. We're seeing inventory builds and single family housing
3:31
Speaker 2: of about thirty percent year over year in some parts
3:34
Speaker 2: of the country that inventory builds are closer to fifty
3:37
Speaker 2: percent year over year in what are increasing swaths of
3:42
Speaker 2: the country, now predominantly the southeast, but broadening out into California, Colorado,
3:48
Speaker 2: and places like that. You are now starting to see
3:51
Speaker 2: areas where home prices are ticking down month over month,
3:54
Speaker 2: and in a number of places, most notably the Austin,
3:56
Speaker 2: Texas region and parts of Florida, you've got home price
4:00
Speaker 2: is falling fairly significantly year over year. And where this
4:05
Speaker 2: is ultimately going is that for the last couple of years,
4:09
Speaker 2: the trend has been towards lower transaction volume, higher sales prices. Yep,
4:15
Speaker 2: we are now heading in the next year or so
4:18
Speaker 2: towards higher transaction volume, but prices need to come down
4:23
Speaker 2: to get there.
4:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems likely that that's right. And they are
4:26
Speaker 3: coming down, by the way, Yeah, they are, and it's
4:29
Speaker 3: taking different formats, right. I've heard increasingly, for instance, of
4:33
Speaker 3: more competition in the single family rental markets, which you
4:38
Speaker 3: know had been traditionally pretty pretty small market. But you know,
4:43
Speaker 3: big institutional buyers over the last few years have been
4:45
Speaker 3: buying up single family homes in places like Arizona, like
4:49
Speaker 3: Florida and renting them out rather than just attempting to
4:53
Speaker 3: flip them or develop them into something else. And suddenly
4:56
Speaker 3: you have people in Florida, Texas and Arizona who have
4:58
Speaker 3: been trying to sell their home, don't like the prices
5:01
Speaker 3: that they're seeing, don't even you know, don't like the
5:03
Speaker 3: demand that they're seeing from buyers, and so are turning
5:06
Speaker 3: to renting them instead. All of which ends in the
5:10
Speaker 3: same place, which is rental prices then come down, meaning
5:14
Speaker 3: the price a which you'd be willing to accept for
5:16
Speaker 3: a sale comes down to if you're actually calculating how
5:19
Speaker 3: much income you can produce on a property.
5:21
Speaker 2: So I think housing, and again it's it's all regional.
5:25
Speaker 2: Our show is based out of the Northeast, and inventories
5:28
Speaker 2: remain low. Housing inventories in most New England states are
5:32
Speaker 2: still anywhere from in the case of Connecticut, seventy percent
5:36
Speaker 2: below pre pandemic levels. Most states in New England are
5:40
Speaker 2: anywhere from like thirty to forty percent below pre pandemic levels.
5:44
Speaker 2: If you go and take a look at Florida and
5:46
Speaker 2: Texas and Colorado, you're now seeing inventories that are up
5:53
Speaker 2: significantly compared to twenty nineteen. And you've got other parts
5:58
Speaker 2: of the country that that's broadening out to as well.
6:00
Speaker 2: California is seeing really rapid inventory builds right now. The
6:05
Speaker 2: Atlanta Georgia region is seeing the same thing. It's up
6:09
Speaker 2: through Tennessee, it's down through the Southwest is starting to
6:14
Speaker 2: pick this up as well, and so you're gonna be
6:17
Speaker 2: in a position, I would say, very likely by the
6:21
Speaker 2: end of this year where the vast majority of the
6:24
Speaker 2: people in this country are living in a location that
6:28
Speaker 2: has more inventory than it did in twenty nineteen. And
6:31
Speaker 2: that means that prices need to come down. Given I
6:35
Speaker 2: gotta tell you, we keep adding this list of like
6:37
Speaker 2: things that aren't in the mortgage price. We keep adding
6:40
Speaker 2: to this list of things that are making it harder
6:42
Speaker 2: to own a home. Insurance costs we've talked about at length. Yeah,
6:46
Speaker 2: they're up and through the roof, especially in some parts
6:49
Speaker 2: of the country, but nationally, like home insurance prices just
6:52
Speaker 2: continue to ratchet up, property taxes continue to ratchet up.
6:57
Speaker 2: And the new one that's really popping up is it's
7:00
Speaker 2: not new, but it's a renewed problem. Utility costs continue
7:05
Speaker 2: to ratchet up as well, and.
7:07
Speaker 3: We're going to be talking about electricity costs a lot
7:09
Speaker 3: of the next few years.
7:10
Speaker 2: It seems it's going to be a huge problem with
7:11
Speaker 2: all these data centers that are trying to come online
7:14
Speaker 2: and not enough power generation to make the math math.
7:19
Speaker 3: So we did just get our June data. Let's see,
7:23
Speaker 3: I think this was released on July nineteenth, so it
7:27
Speaker 3: is fairly recent. And like you said, there's a number
7:30
Speaker 3: of states that are kind of dominating this inventory uptick situation.
7:34
Speaker 3: Colorado is now taking the number one spot. They have
7:37
Speaker 3: seen a thirty four percent increase in homes for sale
7:40
Speaker 3: compared to the same month in twenty nineteen. Texas and
7:44
Speaker 3: Florida are at thirty three and twenty eight percent, respectively,
7:47
Speaker 3: So Colorado's seen a very big uptick. Tennessee is up
7:51
Speaker 3: there with them as well as is Arizona, Washington State, Idaho,
7:56
Speaker 3: and Utah. Many other states are included here in terms
7:59
Speaker 3: of hey, there's a similar or more number of homes
8:03
Speaker 3: for sale compared to the same month in twenty nineteen.
8:05
Speaker 3: But those are the big heavy hitters. But California, to
8:08
Speaker 3: your point, there's only five percent fewer homes for sale
8:11
Speaker 3: in California today compared to twenty nineteen.
8:13
Speaker 2: That was like thirty percent just in the next In
8:17
Speaker 2: the next couple of months, you're gonna be at higher
8:18
Speaker 2: inventory levels. So if you just look at the the
8:24
Speaker 2: math on this, it effectively gets to the point where, Okay,
8:30
Speaker 2: California biggest state in the country by population, uh, Texas
8:36
Speaker 2: number two by population, Florida number three. You've got effectively
8:41
Speaker 2: almost one hundred million people between those three states. It's
8:45
Speaker 2: a third of the population that's living in states where
8:48
Speaker 2: you're gonna have, you know, higher inventories. This is before
8:50
Speaker 2: you even get to you know, places like Georgia and
8:54
Speaker 2: Arizona and so on and so forth. So there's there's
8:58
Speaker 2: some housing is not a bright spot right now, and
9:01
Speaker 2: this is why you're seeing home builders pulling back on construction.
9:04
Speaker 3: Home depot and thods will be some of the last
9:06
Speaker 3: reports that we get on earnings, if I'm not mistaken,
9:09
Speaker 3: but really interesting to hear what they say. Yeah, so nationally,
9:12
Speaker 3: now what we're talking about again. I like to look
9:15
Speaker 3: at this data and compare it to where we were
9:17
Speaker 3: pre COVID. June of twenty twenty five, there are still
9:22
Speaker 3: fewer homes for sale nationally than there were in June
9:25
Speaker 3: of twenty nineteen. That number was I'm trying to recall
9:29
Speaker 3: in the worst of the worst time periods, but I
9:31
Speaker 3: think it was like half as many homes for sale
9:34
Speaker 3: as there were pre COVID. At points of time post COVID,
9:37
Speaker 3: we're now eleven percent fewer homes for sale YEP. Nationally,
9:41
Speaker 3: this housing market is starting to look a lot more normal,
9:45
Speaker 3: more normalized. Other than the interest rates and prices that
9:50
Speaker 3: people have yet to get used to, especially the interest rates,
9:53
Speaker 3: the prices, I think people will always justify so long
9:56
Speaker 3: as the borrowing costs are low. The rate situation is
10:00
Speaker 3: one that people have not gotten used to, and it's.
10:04
Speaker 2: Not gotten used to. It's just they can't afford it. Yeah,
10:07
Speaker 2: I guess it's it's not like, oh, the rates too high.
10:10
Speaker 2: It's no, the payment's too high. Right, Let's take a
10:13
Speaker 2: quick break here when we return. Ted Rossman from Bank
10:16
Speaker 2: Rate is here to discuss their survey on back to
10:20
Speaker 2: school shopping.
10:22
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is now available every day from eleven
10:25
Speaker 1: to noon non Serious XM's Business radio channel one thirty two.
10:29
Speaker 1: Stay informed about the latest from Wall Street, fiscal policy,
10:32
Speaker 1: and breaking business news every day. The Financial Exchange is
10:36
Speaker 1: life on Serious XM's Business radio channel one thirty two.
10:39
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Find daily interviews
10:44
Speaker 1: and full shows of the Financial Exchange on our YouTube page.
10:48
Speaker 1: Subscribe to our page and get caught up on anything
10:50
Speaker 1: and everything you might have missed. This is the Financial
10:53
Speaker 1: Exchange Radio Network.
11:02
Speaker 3: We're joined now by Ted Rossman from Bank Right. They've
11:05
Speaker 3: done a survey on back to school shoppers, and Ted,
11:09
Speaker 3: we have other things that we got to prep for
11:11
Speaker 3: in my family. But I've got three school aged children
11:14
Speaker 3: and I've got the lists and they are long and
11:17
Speaker 3: seemingly expensive this year. Thanks for joining us. Talk to
11:21
Speaker 3: us about the survey you conducted. And you know, obviously
11:23
Speaker 3: tariffs are on everyone's mind. So how are we seeing.
11:26
Speaker 2: Prices on back to school shopping shaping out?
11:30
Speaker 4: We feared the worst with tariffs, it hasn't really arrived
11:33
Speaker 4: for back to school. I'm happy to say the shelves
11:36
Speaker 4: are full, the prices are not bad. We've actually seen
11:40
Speaker 4: year over year declines in some of the key shopping
11:42
Speaker 4: categories like clothing and computers. Overall, thirty percent of back
11:47
Speaker 4: to school shoppers say that they're changing their buying habits
11:51
Speaker 4: because of inflation. That's down eleven percentage points from twenty
11:55
Speaker 4: twenty two. That, of course, was when inflation peaked in
11:58
Speaker 4: the summer of twenty ti twenty two. Really, ever, since
12:01
Speaker 4: early twenty three, wage growth has consistently been outpacing inflation.
12:07
Speaker 4: People are feeling better this year, but it's still a
12:10
Speaker 4: hefty cost. The National Retail Federation says the average kindergarten
12:14
Speaker 4: through twelfth grade back to school shopper is spending eight
12:17
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty eight dollars. That's down about twenty bucks
12:20
Speaker 4: from last year, but it's still the second biggest chopping
12:24
Speaker 4: season behind Christmas.
12:25
Speaker 3: Dear God, that's a lot of money. I guess I
12:28
Speaker 3: buy it between clothes and all the supplies, backpacks, et cetera.
12:31
Speaker 3: But that is a lot of money. Besides the inflation concerns,
12:36
Speaker 3: you do just still get the sense that consumers generally
12:38
Speaker 3: are feeling squeezed. We see that playing out in companies'
12:42
Speaker 3: earnings calls from Southwest and Chipotle talking about consumers. What
12:46
Speaker 3: are they saying when you ask them about how they
12:48
Speaker 3: are conducting their back to school shopping?
12:50
Speaker 2: Are they trying to be more budget conscious this year?
12:53
Speaker 4: They are. There's a cumulative effect, to be sure. Even
12:56
Speaker 4: though inflation has come down a lot, in total prices
12:59
Speaker 4: are up about twenty five percent from the start of
13:02
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, and that weighs on people because it's
13:05
Speaker 4: all these categories. It's back to school, it's housing, it's food,
13:08
Speaker 4: it's a lot of things. Forty nine percent of back
13:11
Speaker 4: to school shoppers say that they're actively seeking out some
13:15
Speaker 4: money saving strategies this year. That can include trading down
13:19
Speaker 4: to cheaper brands and stores. Also, a lot of people
13:22
Speaker 4: are seeking out at coupons, deals discounts. That fits into
13:26
Speaker 4: my advice, which is stack discounts whenever possible. Take advantage
13:31
Speaker 4: of a store promo, but don't stop there. Use a
13:34
Speaker 4: rewards credit card, use an online shopping portal like Rakaton
13:37
Speaker 4: that'll give you additional cash back. Use AMEX offers and
13:41
Speaker 4: Chase offers and other card linked offer programs. A lot
13:46
Speaker 4: of states have sales tax holidays sometime in July or August.
13:50
Speaker 4: That can be a way to defray some of these
13:53
Speaker 4: expenses as well. Look to combine discounts wherever possible.
13:57
Speaker 3: When you take a look at the categories you mentioned,
14:00
Speaker 3: the basket of back to school items is generally even
14:03
Speaker 3: cheaper in many categories. You did find a number of them, though,
14:07
Speaker 3: where prices are moving up this year compared to last year.
14:10
Speaker 3: What are those categories just you know, and where where
14:13
Speaker 3: are people going to feel in their weallet.
14:15
Speaker 2: This year, we're not feeling.
14:17
Speaker 4: It so much on back to school, but we're feeling
14:19
Speaker 4: that spillover from other areas. Clothing prices are down a
14:23
Speaker 4: little bit year over year. Computer prices are down a
14:27
Speaker 4: little bit, but things are still more expensive than we
14:30
Speaker 4: were used to before the pandemic. Another thing you can
14:33
Speaker 4: do to save is to well, first of all, take
14:36
Speaker 4: stock of what you have. If you can still use
14:38
Speaker 4: last year's fall wardrobe, or last year's calculator or computer,
14:43
Speaker 4: or pens and pencils and notebooks and whatever you can
14:46
Speaker 4: repurpose is good. Also, buy nothing groups are a good
14:51
Speaker 4: way to save. My wife loves these. We have two
14:53
Speaker 4: young kids and she's always getting free clothes and toys
14:57
Speaker 4: and school supplies. And a lot of people in your
14:59
Speaker 4: neighbor are happy to pass these on. So look on
15:02
Speaker 4: Facebook and other platforms. Thrift shopping is the thing. If
15:06
Speaker 4: you have teens, you might even take them to the
15:08
Speaker 4: thrift store and get some discount close. These are some
15:12
Speaker 4: ways that people can cut some corners and.
15:14
Speaker 3: Say, honey, the last enjoyable part of Facebook the marketplace aspect, Ted,
15:18
Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us. Ted Rossman from Bankrad
15:20
Speaker 3: joining us today to talk about the back to school
15:23
Speaker 3: shopping season and the budget strain put it on families.
15:27
Speaker 3: Thanks so much, Ted appreciate it.
15:28
Speaker 4: Of course. Thank you all right.
15:30
Speaker 5: Time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange in on
15:33
Speaker 5: this day. In nineteen ninety eight, Saving Private Ryan hit
15:38
Speaker 5: theaters across the country. Saving Private Ryan was obviously a
15:42
Speaker 5: massive hit for director Steven Spielberg and star Tom Hanks,
15:46
Speaker 5: as it was the third highest grossing movie of the year.
15:50
Speaker 5: Trivia question today, who portrayed Private Ryan?
15:54
Speaker 2: Once again?
15:54
Speaker 5: Who portrayed Private Ryan? Be the eighth person today to
15:58
Speaker 5: text us at six three six two thirteen eighty five
16:03
Speaker 5: with the correct answer, and you win a Financial Exchange
16:06
Speaker 5: Show T shirt once again. The eighth correct response to
16:08
Speaker 5: text us to the number six one seven three six
16:12
Speaker 5: two thirteen eighty five will win that T shirt. See
16:15
Speaker 5: complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
16:19
Speaker 2: Every day, the White House releases a schedule of the
16:24
Speaker 2: President's activities for the next day, and one of the
16:28
Speaker 2: things that we saw in yesterday's schedule release for today
16:33
Speaker 2: is that President Trump is going to be visiting the
16:36
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve this afternoon at four pm. What makes This
16:40
Speaker 2: interesting is that presidents don't really visit the Federal Reserve Reserve.
16:48
Speaker 2: The Federal Reserve Building has been open for eighty eight years.
16:51
Speaker 2: It opened in nineteen thirty seven.
16:53
Speaker 4: Uh.
16:54
Speaker 2: The first president to visit was FDR for the opening,
16:58
Speaker 2: just to say, hey, we opened you know, the FED building.
17:02
Speaker 2: The next one was Gerald Ford in nineteen seventy five,
17:07
Speaker 2: who was swearing in his FED chair, and in two
17:10
Speaker 2: thousand and six George W. Bush attended the swearing in
17:13
Speaker 2: of Ben Bernanke at the FED as well. Other than that,
17:19
Speaker 2: US presidents have not visited the FED. So this is
17:23
Speaker 2: going to be interesting, I guess, is the way of
17:29
Speaker 2: putting it. I'm curious in a couple different respects. You know,
17:34
Speaker 2: do we get video of this, what does that video contain?
17:38
Speaker 2: Is there a speech that's given as there a press conference? Like,
17:42
Speaker 2: we don't know exactly what we are going to get,
17:45
Speaker 2: But this is from context.
17:47
Speaker 3: I feel like, again, if you've been not paying close
17:51
Speaker 3: attention to this, it's all been surrounding a big pressure
17:55
Speaker 3: campaign from the White House on the Federal Reserve and
17:58
Speaker 3: drum Powell himself to not only lower interest rates but
18:01
Speaker 3: look for reasons that the president could remove him for cause.
18:05
Speaker 3: And the thing that's come up with is this very
18:08
Speaker 3: expensive renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings, and that's the
18:11
Speaker 3: context under which President Trump is visiting it. So, yeah,
18:17
Speaker 3: you don't know how this plays out. And you know,
18:20
Speaker 3: is this again, is this the method of distraction that
18:25
Speaker 3: the president so successfully employs, or is this something meaningful
18:29
Speaker 3: in terms of re upping the pressure campaign on J.
18:32
Speaker 2: Powell at the Federal Reserve. Don't know, but I think
18:36
Speaker 2: we're gonna have to just see what comes out of
18:38
Speaker 2: this afternoon. And it is notable to me that this
18:42
Speaker 2: is happening at four pm after markets close. I don't
18:46
Speaker 2: think that's a coincidence. And so we'll see what ends
18:51
Speaker 2: up happening here. As we head through the hour, stocks
18:55
Speaker 2: remain mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now down
18:58
Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy four points. Sp is up fifteen,
19:01
Speaker 2: Nasdaq is up seventy three, So no major moves happening
19:05
Speaker 2: at the index level, but under the surface you do
19:08
Speaker 2: have some stuff that is moving. We noted Tesla down
19:10
Speaker 2: about nine percent, also Chipotle down around twelve and a
19:14
Speaker 2: half percent now as well after some disappointing earnings. There
19:18
Speaker 2: on the other side of the equation, AMD, Google and
19:21
Speaker 2: Amazon all up north of one and a half percent,
19:24
Speaker 2: and so given the market cap there, they're helping to
19:27
Speaker 2: keep markets afloat, even with more stocks down than up. Today.
19:32
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we
19:35
Speaker 2: get the Trivia Answer.
19:40
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day.
19:44
Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:50
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
19:53
Speaker 1: what's moving markets so far today right here on the
19:56
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:59
Speaker 2: Markets in mix territories.
20:00
Speaker 5: Investors react to Max seven earnings from Alphabet and Tesla,
20:04
Speaker 5: who reported after the bell yesterday. While Alphabet's results impressed,
20:10
Speaker 5: Tesla's revenue disappointed. Right now, the Dow is off by
20:13
Speaker 5: about a third of percent, or one hundred and forty
20:15
Speaker 5: six points. SMP five hundred is up by two tenths
20:19
Speaker 5: of one percent or sixteen points. Nasdaq is up two
20:22
Speaker 5: tenths of one percent, as well as fifty six points higher.
20:25
Speaker 5: Russell two thousand is off nearly seven tenths of one percent.
20:28
Speaker 5: Ten year Treasure reeled up one basis point at four
20:31
Speaker 5: point three nine to eight percent. DAN crude oil up
20:35
Speaker 5: Jose just over one percent higher, trading at sixty six
20:38
Speaker 5: dollars a barrel. Alphabet shares are climbing two percent higher
20:42
Speaker 5: after the parent company of Google and YouTube posted a
20:45
Speaker 5: jump in revenue in the second quarter driven by cloud growth.
20:48
Speaker 5: The tech giant also upped its annual capital expenditure forecast.
20:52
Speaker 5: As for Tesla, the ev maker reported a sixteen percent
20:56
Speaker 5: drop in quarterly net income for the previous quarter and
20:59
Speaker 5: said cars sales continued to fall. Tesla stock is down
21:03
Speaker 5: nine percent now. Meanwhile, United Health Group said this morning
21:08
Speaker 5: it was responding to requests from civil and criminal investigators
21:11
Speaker 5: at the Justice Department following media reports of probes into
21:16
Speaker 5: its Medicare business. United Health Group stock is down over
21:19
Speaker 5: three percent. Elsewhere, Union Pacific is in advanced discussions with
21:24
Speaker 5: Norfolk Southern about a potential combination of two of the
21:29
Speaker 5: largest freight railroad leaders. Union Pacific stock is pulling back
21:33
Speaker 5: by over two percent now, while Norfolk stock is up modestly.
21:37
Speaker 5: Chipot laid down by twelve percent after the burrito chain
21:41
Speaker 5: cut its same store sales forecast after posting weaker revenue
21:45
Speaker 5: for the previous quarter. American Airlines beat on the top
21:48
Speaker 5: and bottom lines for the previous quarter, but its current
21:51
Speaker 5: quarter profit forecast fell short of estimates, sending that stock
21:54
Speaker 5: down by seven percent. And yesterday, after launching an ad
21:58
Speaker 5: campaign featuring actress Sidney Sweeney, American Eagle Outfitters seems to
22:03
Speaker 5: be garnering meme stock attention, joining the likes of recent
22:06
Speaker 5: newcomers Open Door Technologies, Go Pro Coles, and Krispy Kreme.
22:11
Speaker 5: American Eagle shares are up by about seven percent at
22:14
Speaker 5: the moment. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch.
22:17
Speaker 5: And in the previous segment we asked the trivia question
22:20
Speaker 5: who portrayed Private Ryan and the movie Saving Private Ryan?
22:24
Speaker 5: That would, of course be Matt Damon Day from Georgetown,
22:27
Speaker 5: Mass is our winner today taking home a Financial Exchange
22:30
Speaker 5: Show T shirt. We play trivia every day here in
22:33
Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
22:37
Speaker 5: Show dot Com, PCE and CNBC.
22:40
Speaker 2: Most Americans think they know Social Security, but ARP finds
22:44
Speaker 2: they don't. Here's what they get wrong. What do they
22:48
Speaker 2: get wrong? Michael?
22:48
Speaker 3: So, I'm gonna categorize the these into two different buckets.
22:52
Speaker 3: One just bad information about how the trust fund works.
22:57
Speaker 3: And generally people know that the trust Fund is going
23:01
Speaker 3: belly up and going to be depleted sometime in the
23:03
Speaker 3: near future eight years now. By the way, twenty thirty
23:05
Speaker 3: three is the most recent prediction, but they don't actually
23:08
Speaker 3: understand what that means.
23:10
Speaker 2: And so you know a bit of rapid fire here.
23:13
Speaker 3: If the trust fund does get depleted by twenty thirty three,
23:15
Speaker 3: Congress does not act, then everyone's benefits who are currently
23:21
Speaker 3: receiving Social Security are cut by some amount in that
23:24
Speaker 3: right now testament nineteen percent. I've seen estimates that have
23:28
Speaker 3: been higher, but yeah, it's somewhere in that general range
23:31
Speaker 3: where you only get some eighty percent of your previous
23:35
Speaker 3: benefits if Congress were to do nothing. So there's some
23:38
Speaker 3: confusion about that. I see day to day a lot
23:41
Speaker 3: of confusion about retire different ages when it comes to
23:46
Speaker 3: what does full retirement age actually mean, And it's confusing
23:50
Speaker 3: because it's shifted.
23:51
Speaker 2: So a few things.
23:53
Speaker 3: One, the earliest you can pull social Security, assuming you're
23:56
Speaker 3: not disabled or you know, surviving spouse, all these special situations,
24:00
Speaker 3: but just a relatively normal situation would be age sixty two.
24:04
Speaker 3: The latest you can wait is age seventy. So why
24:06
Speaker 3: your windows?
24:07
Speaker 2: So why for like anyone who hasn't yet claimed is
24:12
Speaker 2: full retirement age age sixty seven? Like, how does that
24:16
Speaker 2: make any sense? Let's be honest, it's it's it's a
24:18
Speaker 2: bad term to use given that it's not the oldest
24:21
Speaker 2: which you can claim.
24:22
Speaker 3: Right, So your full retirement age is the age of
24:26
Speaker 3: which you're eligible to actually receive the full benefits of
24:30
Speaker 3: Social Security without any drawbacks of still working.
24:33
Speaker 2: I really should be phrased like standard retirement age. I
24:36
Speaker 2: guessing like that.
24:36
Speaker 3: And the other piece that's confusing, it's moved over time.
24:38
Speaker 3: It was sixty five, it's now sixty seven. It's been
24:41
Speaker 3: anywhere in between those two places, depending on how old
24:44
Speaker 3: you are. Yeah, and there's another important date when it
24:47
Speaker 3: comes to retirement that people get confused about because Medicare
24:50
Speaker 3: age is sixty five, yet full retirement age and so
24:53
Speaker 3: security is sixty seven. So I can get my health
24:56
Speaker 3: insurance at sixty five, but I can't get my full
24:58
Speaker 3: retirement benefits until sixty seven. And in fact, if I
25:02
Speaker 3: go and work while receiving Social Security prior to that
25:06
Speaker 3: special age, then I actually get penalized in twenty twenty five,
25:10
Speaker 3: if you are earning social Security and you're younger than
25:13
Speaker 3: full retirement age. Your benefits get reduced if your earnings
25:16
Speaker 3: exceed twenty three four hundred dollars, and there's a formula
25:20
Speaker 3: that they use to do all this. I don't know
25:24
Speaker 3: if we need to cover every other thing that people
25:26
Speaker 3: tend to get wrong about it, but those are the
25:28
Speaker 3: big ones.
25:29
Speaker 2: There's something in here that I want to read, though,
25:31
Speaker 2: just that I think is missing the point. Quote. Younger
25:38
Speaker 2: Americans tend to have lower confidence in Social Security, with
25:41
Speaker 2: Americans in their thirties being the most pessimistic, the survey found.
25:45
Speaker 2: Quote Some of this could be that younger people just
25:48
Speaker 2: haven't experienced Social Security yet and don't understand how the
25:50
Speaker 2: program works, said Bill Sweeney, Senior vice president of Government
25:53
Speaker 2: Affairs at ARP. Actually receiving Social Security changes how people
25:56
Speaker 2: view the program. Yes, if it operates the way it's
25:59
Speaker 2: supposed to. But I think that given the fact that
26:03
Speaker 2: right now, eight years from now, there's projected to be
26:07
Speaker 2: a benefit cut if nothing else happens, I don't think
26:11
Speaker 2: that young people are looking at the program in a
26:13
Speaker 2: way that's out of line simply because the program is
26:17
Speaker 2: not being stewarded appropriately by the federal government.
26:22
Speaker 3: I think the only piece that I would say about
26:25
Speaker 3: younger Americans and their views on social Security is I
26:29
Speaker 3: do speak to a lot of folks who say, my
26:32
Speaker 3: kids shouldn't count on social Security existing at all. I
26:36
Speaker 3: think that's probably off. Yeah, I mean that seems really
26:40
Speaker 3: extreme to me. But predicting as a thirty year old
26:44
Speaker 3: what your social Security benefits are going to look like
26:47
Speaker 3: thirty to forty years from now.
26:50
Speaker 2: Good luck at them. I don't know. I think the
26:53
Speaker 2: way that I tend to phrase the statement is I
26:55
Speaker 2: don't know exactly what social Security is going to look like,
26:58
Speaker 2: so I don't bank on it being a specific number. Yeah,
27:02
Speaker 2: but it's it's very it's nothing is certain, but it's
27:07
Speaker 2: very very likely that it will exist in some form
27:10
Speaker 2: that probably has some changes from today, but not you know,
27:15
Speaker 2: it's not going to be a drastic shift most likely,
27:20
Speaker 2: but again, a lot can change, you know, between now
27:22
Speaker 2: and then.
27:23
Speaker 3: Frankly, if you're thirty years old, budgeting that into your
27:26
Speaker 3: plan isn't all that important. Where it is not really
27:29
Speaker 3: worth it, yeah, pretty important is if you're fifty eight
27:31
Speaker 3: years old. Yes, and oh look at that, my retirement
27:35
Speaker 3: date happens to coincide with the same time that the
27:38
Speaker 3: trust fund is going belly up. Those are important questions
27:42
Speaker 3: to factor in, and very clearly the Social Security program
27:46
Speaker 3: has some complexities to it beyond just how Congress is
27:50
Speaker 3: going to fund it in the future. If you are
27:53
Speaker 3: staring down retirement and maybe your retirement date coincides or
27:56
Speaker 3: comes close to that expiration date of the trust fund,
28:01
Speaker 3: give the folks at Armstrong Advisor Group of calls so
28:03
Speaker 3: we can help you model this all out. It is complicated.
28:06
Speaker 3: We don't know how it will all play out in
28:08
Speaker 3: the future, but when you're that close, you need to
28:11
Speaker 3: have a coherent plan that addresses the subject. The numbers
28:15
Speaker 3: eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one. You
28:18
Speaker 3: can also check out the website Armstrong Advisory dot com
28:21
Speaker 3: where you can book a callback. But that number, once
28:23
Speaker 3: again for us at the Armstrong Advisory Group is eight
28:26
Speaker 3: hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
28:30
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
28:32
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
28:35
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
28:38
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
28:41
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong make contact you to offer investment
28:44
Speaker 1: Advisory services.
28:45
Speaker 2: Mike, do you want to talk about Amazon target or
28:48
Speaker 2: four day workweeks? Four day work weeks? Okay, so the way,
28:51
Speaker 2: I'm not coming in tomorrow. No, So we got Ai
28:58
Speaker 2: Mike and Ai Chuck who will be chatting with you, Tom,
29:02
Speaker 2: I don't know. That's Ai Mike. He has a Canadian acts.
29:07
Speaker 2: It's a little Canadian occasionally. So there was a study
29:11
Speaker 2: that was conducted by Boston College researchers. They tracked about
29:16
Speaker 2: three thousand people across one hundred and forty one different
29:19
Speaker 2: companies in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand.
29:24
Speaker 2: They also had a control group of around three hundred
29:26
Speaker 2: people doing a regular five day work week. And all
29:30
Speaker 2: these people were at the same organization. So the organization's
29:33
Speaker 2: volunteered to say, yes, we'll take some of our workforce
29:36
Speaker 2: and put them on a four day work week. And
29:39
Speaker 2: they asked them a bunch of questions as they went
29:41
Speaker 2: through the process, and they found that the workers who
29:47
Speaker 2: were on the four day work week had less burnout
29:50
Speaker 2: and better sleep than those who were on the regular schedule.
29:56
Speaker 2: Sixty seven pups sixty seven percent of workers reported reduced
29:59
Speaker 2: levels of burn out forty one percent said their mental
30:01
Speaker 2: health improved, thirty eight percent experienced fewer issues with sleep.
30:07
Speaker 2: The control group did not show a meaningful shift in
30:10
Speaker 2: any of these metrics. So I think that when we
30:15
Speaker 2: look at this look, I think that almost all of
30:19
Speaker 2: us would agree that in a perfect world, we don't
30:24
Speaker 2: have to be as focused on work as we are
30:28
Speaker 2: here in the United States. In particular the stuff we have,
30:32
Speaker 2: you know, emails creeping into the evening and being expected
30:35
Speaker 2: to respond to emails at ten pm. In this stuff,
30:38
Speaker 2: quite honestly, it's for the birds. And I know everyone's like, well,
30:42
Speaker 2: back in my day, we're talking. The goal is not
30:44
Speaker 2: to try to make every generation work harder than the
30:46
Speaker 2: previous one, and to try to make our lives better
30:49
Speaker 2: for you know, the next generation. And so if my
30:52
Speaker 2: kids don't have to do as much as me, I
30:56
Speaker 2: kind of view that as a success. So I'm not
30:57
Speaker 2: saying I want them to be lazy and just you know,
31:00
Speaker 2: sit around and not contribute in any meaningful way. But
31:03
Speaker 2: I don't want their lives to have the same problems
31:05
Speaker 2: that previous ones did. Like I think that's generally accepted
31:10
Speaker 2: and or at least I hope it is. The question
31:13
Speaker 2: on this is, okay, how do you manage this? But ultimately,
31:17
Speaker 2: the trend threat human history has been fewer humans being
31:20
Speaker 2: able to do the same amount of work because we
31:23
Speaker 2: ramp up productivity gains. How do we balance that with
31:26
Speaker 2: our desire to solve all these new problems that are
31:30
Speaker 2: coming up. I don't know. I don't know, but I
31:34
Speaker 2: think we're gonna have to work on that because I
31:36
Speaker 2: don't know. Like again, if you talk to anyone who
31:42
Speaker 2: quite honestly, like talk to anyone who does manual labor
31:45
Speaker 2: today of just about any kind, and they're not usually
31:48
Speaker 2: talking about a five day work week. They're usually talking
31:50
Speaker 2: about a six something in some cases a seven day
31:52
Speaker 2: work week. And you know, if you happen to be
31:55
Speaker 2: listening to this show and you're on the job, and
31:57
Speaker 2: you're like, yeah, Chuck, like I work six seven days
32:00
Speaker 2: week because I'm in you know, this business or that one,
32:02
Speaker 2: and that's just what my schedule is. What I guess
32:06
Speaker 2: what I'm getting at is can we find ways to
32:10
Speaker 2: have this some kind of improvement across all types of
32:14
Speaker 2: jobs so that we can still get the work done
32:17
Speaker 2: that needs to be done, but have better schedules.
32:20
Speaker 3: In doing so it reminds me of a pretty good
32:23
Speaker 3: tweet that I saw a few weeks ago or months
32:25
Speaker 3: ago about artificial intelligence, where the general idea was, hey,
32:30
Speaker 3: you know, we had all these ideas of automation which
32:33
Speaker 3: would help us do our job so we would have
32:35
Speaker 3: more time for leisure, and instead we created a bunch
32:38
Speaker 3: of AI that's really good at creating art and music and.
32:42
Speaker 2: It's not good at it though. Yeah, but that's been
32:44
Speaker 2: the focus.
32:45
Speaker 3: Is we create a bunch of ais that attempt to
32:47
Speaker 3: replicate human creativity instead of automating away boring tasks, which
32:52
Speaker 3: is not great.
32:54
Speaker 2: So the last week has really brought something into really
32:57
Speaker 2: sharp focus for me in that accidentally, artificial intelligence has
33:03
Speaker 2: proven that humans have a soul. How we're getting deep? No, no, no,
33:09
Speaker 2: like there's I want you to stick with me on this. Okay,
33:13
Speaker 2: can you name one piece of art or one one
33:18
Speaker 2: meme that artificial intelligence has made that has any staying
33:22
Speaker 2: power now? And yet, right now, if I said to
33:25
Speaker 2: both of you the word astronomer, you know exactly what
33:30
Speaker 2: I'm talking about. Yeah, And it's because humans. It's because
33:34
Speaker 2: they're actual, real humans involved in any kind of actual
33:38
Speaker 2: art or any meme or like the reason that, like
33:41
Speaker 2: you see a picture from a movie and you immediately
33:44
Speaker 2: know what that person's talking about is because you relate
33:47
Speaker 2: to exactly what that person in that picture is seeing.
33:50
Speaker 2: If I show you Jack Nicholson from a few Good
33:54
Speaker 2: Men sitting on the stand there, you know, all face
33:57
Speaker 2: all scrunched up, you know exactly what he's saying. He's
34:01
Speaker 2: saying you can't handle the truth, and you know why
34:04
Speaker 2: he's saying it. You know what it means because there's
34:06
Speaker 2: there's significance behind it. With artificial intelligence, there's none of that.
34:11
Speaker 2: There's no meaning in any of it. And so by accident,
34:16
Speaker 2: I believe that artificial intelligence has proven that humans have
34:20
Speaker 2: a soul because it does not deep read. You're welcome.
34:25
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we finish up, we'll
34:27
Speaker 2: do a little bit of stack roulette.
34:29
Speaker 1: Here The Financial Exchange every day from eleven to noon
34:32
Speaker 1: Non Serious XM's Business radio Channel one thirty two. Keep
34:36
Speaker 1: it here for the latest business and financial news and
34:39
Speaker 1: the trends on Wall Street. The Financial Exchange is now
34:42
Speaker 1: life on Serious XM's Business radio channel one thirty two.
34:46
Speaker 1: Face He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange
34:51
Speaker 1: streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our page and stay
34:54
Speaker 1: up to date on breaking business news. All morning. Long
34:57
Speaker 1: Face is the Financial Exchange Radio at Work.
35:02
Speaker 5: This segment of The Financial Exchange brought to you in
35:04
Speaker 5: part by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. Three
35:07
Speaker 5: stunning islands, Sant Croix, Saint Thomas, and Saint John all
35:11
Speaker 5: just a quick flight away, no passport required, just sunshine,
35:14
Speaker 5: soft sand and that warm island vibe. Craving a break,
35:18
Speaker 5: plan your fall, escape now and experience the beauty of
35:20
Speaker 5: America's Caribbean. The US Virgin Islands book today at visit
35:24
Speaker 5: USBI dot com. That's visit USBI dot com.
35:28
Speaker 2: Mike, what do you have for me for stack left?
35:31
Speaker 3: I want to talk Vegas, Vegas Baby Collin Ah No,
35:37
Speaker 3: but neither is anybody else. Air traffic into Harry Reid
35:40
Speaker 3: International Airport for the first half of twenty five was
35:44
Speaker 3: down four percent compared to last year, So somebody's going
35:48
Speaker 3: the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority data for the
35:51
Speaker 3: first four months of the year showed a decrease in
35:53
Speaker 3: the overall number of visitors. And I just take that
35:57
Speaker 3: to be meaningful, not because four percent is a huge
36:00
Speaker 3: drop off, but it matters. Vegas stands for something, and
36:05
Speaker 3: in the worst downturns in US economic modern history, Vegas
36:13
Speaker 3: takes it on the chin when that does happen. Is
36:16
Speaker 3: this something one time related to nervousness about the economy
36:20
Speaker 3: in the early part of the year that.
36:21
Speaker 2: Will reverse itself. Maybe, But I don't know. Something something
36:24
Speaker 2: a little.
36:25
Speaker 3: Bit of a different economic indicator that I think when
36:27
Speaker 3: it comes to generally speaking, wealthy people spending that is
36:32
Speaker 3: on a downturn counterpoint.
36:34
Speaker 2: And I'm not saying this is a isn't Do you
36:37
Speaker 2: really need to go to Vegas if you can pull
36:40
Speaker 2: up a million prop bets on your phone and go
36:44
Speaker 2: in Yolo zero days to expiration options on meme stocks?
36:48
Speaker 2: Maybe not so.
36:49
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe this is a cyclical trend on casino gambling
36:53
Speaker 3: would be secular trend, magular trend on you know, like.
36:57
Speaker 2: What what if because we've made it so easy to
37:01
Speaker 2: gamble on your phone casino traffic drops over the next decade,
37:08
Speaker 2: then that is about to get even. Then the gambling world.
37:12
Speaker 3: Is about to get even sadder than walking into the
37:14
Speaker 3: Mohegan Sun at eight thirty am on a Tuesday.
37:17
Speaker 2: I'm telling you we got problems. I see. I see
37:21
Speaker 2: so many kids, mostly men in their early twenties, that
37:29
Speaker 2: have real gambling debt problems because of the ease of access.
37:35
Speaker 3: It's an interesting thought that I hadn't considered. Obviously, Vegas
37:38
Speaker 3: stands from more than just gambling. It is an entertainment mecca.
37:41
Speaker 3: But if it is just tied to the fact that, yeah,
37:44
Speaker 3: we can gamble a lot easier, not only on our phones,
37:48
Speaker 3: but in casinos now across the country that didn't exist
37:50
Speaker 3: ten years ago, that's that's meaningful and different.
37:53
Speaker 2: It's just like at the margins is like half of
37:56
Speaker 2: that four percent because of that. You know, Hey, I
37:58
Speaker 2: was gonna go to Vegas, but Instea and I bought
38:00
Speaker 2: a bunch of options on this or I did a
38:06
Speaker 2: sixty three leg parlay that man, I came so close on,
38:13
Speaker 2: because there's nothing like hearing about someone's parlay that they
38:16
Speaker 2: just missed on. We're done for the day, quick break
38:20
Speaker 2: for the entire rest of it, and we'll be back tomorrow.
38:22
Speaker 2: Let's finish out the week.