Latest / The Commodities Economy with Fexingo: Oil, Gold, Wheat, and Raw Material Markets
Why Crude Is Falling Despite the Iran Crisis
Lucas and Luna unpack a head-scratcher: crude oil is down 10% in a week even as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate. They trace the move to a specific supply-side story—how market participants are pricing in a ceasefire extension before President Trump signs off. The conversation touches on the divergence between Brent and WTI, why the selloff accelerated on low volume, and what the backwardation curve is telling us about physical barrels versus paper barrels. Lucas shares a 2023 analog from the Russia-Ukraine grain deal that helps explain the pattern: when a risk premium is priced in early, the…
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