Latest / Rosters to Rings Podcast / Bad Contracts and Big Payrolls
Transcript
- 0:03Speaker 1: Welcome back to Rosters to Rings alongside Chet West. I
- 0:07Speaker 1: am Thad Levine. Chet, we got a great show here today.
- 0:10Speaker 1: We're going to talk a little bit about some of
- 0:12Speaker 1: the most burdensome contracts across the NFL and Major League Baseball.
- 0:16Speaker 1: We're going to have a review of some of what
- 0:19Speaker 1: Spilly shared with us about the competitiveness in Major League Baseball.
- 0:23Speaker 1: But where I want to start with is we haven't
- 0:25Speaker 1: had a chance to speak about this, but in Major
- 0:27Speaker 1: League Baseball, we've had a little bit of a shifting
- 0:29Speaker 1: of the sands. A few teams have made some leadership changes,
- 0:33Speaker 1: and I thought that's where we would start our discussion today.
- 0:35Speaker 2: Yeah, Thad, you know, as you know, we're getting to
- 0:38Speaker 2: that time of the year when the earth begins to
- 0:41Speaker 2: shift under the feet of baseball players, baseball managers, front
- 0:46Speaker 2: office folks, and we see it again here. You know,
- 0:49Speaker 2: we talked about Perry Manassian and the Angels parting ways
- 0:54Speaker 2: a few months back. John Mozeliak's taken over there, and
- 0:58Speaker 2: now we're seeing some other moves. On August 11th of
- 1:02Speaker 2: this month, the Angels fired pitching coaches Mike Maddox, Dom Chidi,
- 1:06Speaker 2: and Daryl Scott. Now, I look at this and I
- 1:10Speaker 2: see Dom Chidi, Daryl Scott, not to belittle them. I'm
- 1:14Speaker 2: less familiar with their work. But Mike Maddox is a
- 1:17Speaker 2: big name. And everybody knows Mike Maddox that knows baseball.
- 1:20Speaker 2: He's pitching coach for, what are we going on here,
- 1:24Speaker 2: 20-some years? 23 seasons. 23 seasons. He's a major league
- 1:29Speaker 2: pitching coach. He's 13 postseason appearances, three World Series appearances
- 1:33Speaker 2: and a championship as recently as 2023, I believe, if
- 1:38Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. So it's not like this stuff happened
- 1:40Speaker 2: in the early portion of his career. What gives here
- 1:44Speaker 2: in your mind? I mean, what are we looking at
- 1:46Speaker 2: when we see something like that? They've just gutted the
- 1:48Speaker 2: entire pitching coach staff, basically.
- 1:51Speaker 1: So you mentioned it. There's been a chain of events
- 1:53Speaker 1: here recently. First, with Perry Manassian losing his role, John
- 1:57Speaker 1: Moseliak came and he's really doing an audit of the
- 1:59Speaker 1: entire organization under the direction of Artie Moreno, their owner,
- 2:04Speaker 1: in partnership with Molly Jolly, the team president on the
- 2:07Speaker 1: business side.
- 2:08Speaker 2: And this is the.
- 2:09Speaker 1: First probably of a few chips to fall in Anaheim,
- 2:13Speaker 1: as we're seeing that he has now made a recommendation
- 2:16Speaker 1: that they need to make a change in their pitching leadership.
- 2:19Speaker 1: A few things I just want to share with the
- 2:21Speaker 1: listeners about Mike Maddox. I've had a chance to work
- 2:23Speaker 1: with both Mike Maddox and Dom Chidi of this group.
- 2:27Speaker 1: Dom was a senior leader on the scouting and player
- 2:29Speaker 1: development side in Texas while I was there. Mike Maddox
- 2:32Speaker 1: was the longtime pitching coach. You referenced it. He's had
- 2:36Speaker 1: a very decorated career. And lest we forget, he was
- 2:39Speaker 1: also a pitcher at the major league level. But then
- 2:42Speaker 1: he went on to have a very illustrious, what I
- 2:44Speaker 1: imagine is not concluded, major league coaching career. role as
- 2:49Speaker 1: a pitching coach and one of the foremost ones in
- 2:51Speaker 1: the game. And what you get in Mike Maddox when
- 2:53Speaker 1: you hire him is one of the most hardworking coaches
- 2:57Speaker 1: I've ever been around. His attention to detail and his
- 3:01Speaker 1: preparation is bar none, Chet. He is a guy who
- 3:05Speaker 1: works tirelessly on behalf of his pitching staff. He is
- 3:08Speaker 1: preparing these guys at a level that just transcends what
- 3:12Speaker 1: most coaches are doing When they go on the rubber,
- 3:15Speaker 1: they truly believe they have Mike in their ear, guiding
- 3:18Speaker 1: them to greatness. And that is why a lot of
- 3:20Speaker 1: his teams, as you may mention, 13 postseason appearances in
- 3:24Speaker 1: 23 seasons across a number of different teams. He's had
- 3:28Speaker 1: Cy Young Award winners. He's had guys overachieve throughout his career.
- 3:32Speaker 1: But let's look a little bit deeper as to what
- 3:34Speaker 1: is the present state of the Anaheim Angels. Their pitching
- 3:38Speaker 1: side has not been great. particularly robust. I'm not sure
- 3:41Speaker 1: it's fair to put that on Mike. He's only been
- 3:43Speaker 1: there for this season, but at the time of his departure,
- 3:46Speaker 1: they're 19th in war. And most of that came from
- 3:49Speaker 1: Reed Detmers and Jose Soriano. Over half of the team's
- 3:53Speaker 1: war was in those two starting pitchers. Their staff was
- 3:55Speaker 1: 24th in ERA, 30th in walk rate. They were fifth
- 3:59Speaker 1: in strikeout rate, but probably the most important stat, Chet,
- 4:02Speaker 1: is they were 30th in wins at the time of
- 4:04Speaker 1: the move.
- 4:05Speaker 2: So what was... Okay. I see this and I say
- 4:08Speaker 2: to myself, they're just getting rid of anybody that was
- 4:11Speaker 2: attached to the previous group. We're slowly cutting that all
- 4:18Speaker 2: off and we're going to start over anew here. You
- 4:21Speaker 2: see it happen in the corporate world all the time.
- 4:23Speaker 2: CEO goes, the three people attached to the CEO eventually
- 4:27Speaker 2: find their way out of their offices likewise. Is this
- 4:30Speaker 2: a case of that or- Do they not feel Mike
- 4:35Speaker 2: Maddox is doing the job? I'm, I guess you give
- 4:38Speaker 2: him one season. It's not like he got to go
- 4:40Speaker 2: out and choose his pitching staff either. So he's working with,
- 4:44Speaker 2: you know, is he trying to carve rotten wood here
- 4:46Speaker 2: or what's going on? What, why, why do this right now? Yeah.
- 4:50Speaker 1: So, so Chet, I think two things to, to address
- 4:53Speaker 1: that one that we shouldn't overlook is he actually worked
- 4:56Speaker 1: for John Mosaic in St.
- 4:58Speaker 2: Louis.
- 4:59Speaker 1: So this isn't necessarily just a case of, John has
- 5:02Speaker 1: his own idea of who he wants, and he absolutely
- 5:06Speaker 1: wants to go with that guy and has no history
- 5:08Speaker 1: with this person. He actually does have a history with Mike,
- 5:11Speaker 1: and I think that's somewhat relevant to this conversation. The
- 5:14Speaker 1: other thing which I would say is a little bit
- 5:16Speaker 1: out of turn here is maybe credit to Perry, hard
- 5:20Speaker 1: to really tell, but typically the cadence of these departures
- 5:24Speaker 1: is the GM feels extreme pressure from the owner, from
- 5:29Speaker 1: the fan base, from the media. They then go and
- 5:32Speaker 1: fire coaches to ideally spark some sort of turnaround. When
- 5:37Speaker 1: and if that doesn't work, unfortunately, they then go and
- 5:39Speaker 1: fire a manager to try to spark some turnaround.
- 5:42Speaker 2: It works its way up the ladder, right?
- 5:43Speaker 1: Right. And then the GM loses his job. This happened
- 5:47Speaker 1: in the reverse, where the GM lost his job first.
- 5:51Speaker 1: So when you ask the question, is this just a
- 5:53Speaker 1: normal housekeeping? I would say it's anything but. Because typically
- 5:57Speaker 1: you would have the coaches lose their role first. The
- 5:59Speaker 1: other thing that is of note here, and we've talked
- 6:02Speaker 1: about it on the show before, but Kurt Suzuki, their manager,
- 6:05Speaker 1: is in his first year with the team, miraculously signed
- 6:09Speaker 1: a one-year deal this offseason to manage the team. So
- 6:12Speaker 1: the instability of this coaching staff was rife from the beginning.
- 6:17Speaker 1: And I'm not sure the length of Mike Maddox's deal,
- 6:20Speaker 1: but I believe it was also one year. So when
- 6:22Speaker 1: you're hiring major league coaches and major league managers to
- 6:26Speaker 1: one-year deals, I think that speaks to the instability of
- 6:29Speaker 1: the franchise. And then lo and behold, Perry was on
- 6:33Speaker 1: shaky footing. He loses his job. And now the pitching
- 6:36Speaker 1: coaches have lost their job. My guess is there may
- 6:39Speaker 1: be more moves on the horizon.
- 6:40Speaker 2: So this is, I'm guessing, Mozelewicz is trying to bring
- 6:46Speaker 2: about what he sees as the ideal group of leadership
- 6:50Speaker 2: for this team. And this is just going to keep
- 6:52Speaker 2: unfolding as the season kind of goes on. We'll probably
- 6:55Speaker 2: hear more about this. Do you think he's eligible for
- 6:59Speaker 2: this role next season? Is that the idea? Take the
- 7:02Speaker 2: interim tag off of him at some point?
- 7:05Speaker 1: So just to build off your previous point, I think
- 7:07Speaker 1: it's also worth noting, since he has a history with
- 7:09Speaker 1: Mike Maddox, maybe he's also making the executive call that
- 7:13Speaker 1: what this franchise needs right now doesn't align perfectly well
- 7:16Speaker 1: with Mike Maddox's strength. I don't think anyone could possibly
- 7:20Speaker 1: indict Mike Maddox as a great pitching coach. Like he's,
- 7:24Speaker 1: he has been a great pitching coach, but that doesn't
- 7:26Speaker 1: mean he's a great pitching coach or fit for all circumstances.
- 7:30Speaker 1: John Moseley worked with him in St. Louis. He knows
- 7:33Speaker 1: how he can excel. Maybe there's just a misalignment he
- 7:36Speaker 1: sees right here with the resources they have, the personal
- 7:38Speaker 1: they have coming and what Mike's great at doing. So,
- 7:41Speaker 1: and then secondarily to address your question about Moe, He
- 7:46Speaker 1: has a tremendous track record with the St. Louis Cardinals,
- 7:51Speaker 1: winning multiple World Series, taking the team to even more,
- 7:55Speaker 1: famously having over a decade of finishing above. 500 with
- 7:58Speaker 1: that team, doing something incredible. which, oh, by the way, St.
- 8:02Speaker 1: Louis is actually technically a smaller market in terms of
- 8:05Speaker 1: revenue generation. But when you went there, you didn't feel that.
- 8:09Speaker 1: They were always drawing over 3 million fans per year.
- 8:11Speaker 2: Proud fan base there, yeah.
- 8:13Speaker 1: Proud fan base, very home field advantage. You felt that
- 8:17Speaker 1: every time you stepped into that stadium. John Moselak built
- 8:20Speaker 1: that franchise up to what it became. So here he
- 8:23Speaker 1: is now in Anaheim. I would say it's a personal
- 8:26Speaker 1: decision for Mo. I would think if he has a
- 8:29Speaker 1: desire to extend his tenure there that opportunity very well
- 8:33Speaker 1: may be there for him. Ostensibly, when the press release
- 8:36Speaker 1: came out, he was coming on in a consulting capacity.
- 8:39Speaker 1: Part of that consultation was to identify candidates to replace
- 8:43Speaker 1: Perry Manassian, yet to be determined whether or not his
- 8:46Speaker 1: name actually ends up on that list. But ostensibly, it
- 8:48Speaker 1: wasn't designed to be that.
- 8:50Speaker 2: Okay, we'll see. Well, I think there's a team out
- 8:52Speaker 2: there that's going to get pretty lucky and land Mike
- 8:54Speaker 2: Maddox as a pitching coach next season. I think that
- 8:57Speaker 2: would be a plus for any squad. I would take
- 9:00Speaker 2: him on any of the teams that I root for.
- 9:02Speaker 2: Jump real quick. We're going to jump over to the
- 9:05Speaker 2: Sacramento A's, which I'm never going to get comfortable calling
- 9:08Speaker 2: them that.
- 9:08Speaker 1: Well, you won't have to for long, though.
- 9:10Speaker 2: I will have to for long. This is true. It'll
- 9:13Speaker 2: be the Las Vegas Athletics or the Las Vegas A's
- 9:16Speaker 2: on August 7th. The A's and David Forrest parted ways.
- 9:19Speaker 2: I'm going to be dead honest with you, Thad. I
- 9:22Speaker 2: have been a baseball fan for going on. I mean,
- 9:24Speaker 2: a serious baseball fan for going on 25, 30 years.
- 9:26Speaker 2: I have no clue who David Forrest is. I've never
- 9:29Speaker 2: heard this man's name. It's probably because they're all the
- 9:31Speaker 2: way out on the West Coast. I have definitely had
- 9:34Speaker 2: this pop up in the past with me. I just
- 9:36Speaker 2: hadn't heard of, you know, various front office folks, unless
- 9:40Speaker 2: it's a team that I'm cheering for, pulling for, following
- 9:43Speaker 2: very closely. Now, maybe I need to dig in a
- 9:46Speaker 2: little more if we're going to do more of these
- 9:47Speaker 2: shows and cover these folks. But what do you know
- 9:50Speaker 2: about David Forrest? What are we looking at there? He's
- 9:52Speaker 2: been with the organization since 2000, GM since 2015. So
- 9:56Speaker 2: he's been around a while. I don't have an excuse,
- 9:58Speaker 2: to be honest.
- 10:00Speaker 1: So, so I think part of the reason maybe you
- 10:02Speaker 1: have not heard as much about David Forrest is because
- 10:05Speaker 1: he has worked a stride. One of the most legendary
- 10:08Speaker 1: GMs of our lifetimes, Chet in Billy Bean. So I think, yes, so,
- 10:14Speaker 1: So you've heard of him. So I think that's part
- 10:16Speaker 1: of the reason David doesn't probably get quite as much
- 10:19Speaker 1: fanfare because Billy has gotten so much and deservedly so.
- 10:22Speaker 1: This franchise has been revolutionary in what they've accomplished. And
- 10:26Speaker 1: that's been under Billy's tenure, but it's also been with
- 10:30Speaker 1: David serving as his chief lieutenant and then going on
- 10:33Speaker 1: to become the general manager there. So David Forrest actually
- 10:37Speaker 1: started the same year I did in our careers. We've
- 10:40Speaker 1: been friends throughout. We have a lot of shared conversations
- 10:46Speaker 1: and confidence about some of the challenges of these roles.
- 10:49Speaker 1: He went to a little school in Cambridge called Harvard
- 10:52Speaker 1: where he played baseball.
- 10:53Speaker 2: So he's a smart kid. Yes.
- 10:56Speaker 1: He's from the Bay Area. He then went to work
- 10:59Speaker 1: for kind of the quasi hometown team in the Oakland
- 11:02Speaker 1: Athletics in 2000. He then ascended to become the GM
- 11:07Speaker 1: when Billy took a step down And he's been running
- 11:09Speaker 1: that franchise for over a decade now.
- 11:11Speaker 2: And that I think you've probably explained. I mean, it's
- 11:13Speaker 2: just a slight case of overshadowing. And again, more my
- 11:18Speaker 2: lack of knowledge than anything else. But I do look
- 11:22Speaker 2: at the Sacramento A's and I think of who they have.
- 11:25Speaker 2: They have some very talented ballplayers on that team. They're
- 11:30Speaker 2: based on who they've got rolling, especially young guys. And
- 11:33Speaker 2: maybe that's part of the issue. It's a lot of
- 11:35Speaker 2: younger guys. who haven't taken that next step yet. I mean,
- 11:38Speaker 2: you've got Jacob Wilson, you've got Kurtz, you've got Lang Lears.
- 11:41Speaker 2: Lang Lears did get injured, so out for most of
- 11:44Speaker 2: the season here with his injury. You've got Rooker, who
- 11:47Speaker 2: was a former twin farmhand, who's kind of come up
- 11:50Speaker 2: and done something with the A's over the last couple seasons.
- 11:54Speaker 2: I guess I'm looking at that team, and I'm wondering
- 11:56Speaker 2: where they've fallen on hard times, and it appears as
- 11:59Speaker 2: the pitching staff has been under-armed recently. so to speak.
- 12:05Speaker 2: What are your thoughts there?
- 12:07Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree. I mean, I think when you
- 12:10Speaker 1: rattle off those names, Chet, that's an envious core of
- 12:14Speaker 1: offensive players. Maybe of note is they're all offensive players.
- 12:19Speaker 1: And so it's a bit of a lopsided team right now.
- 12:23Speaker 1: It is very, their strength of the team is on
- 12:25Speaker 1: the offensive side. It is not on the pitching side.
- 12:29Speaker 1: What is magnifying and the thing that we'll get into
- 12:32Speaker 1: after the break here is Where they're playing right now
- 12:35Speaker 1: is unforgiving for pitching. So their pitching is a little substandard.
- 12:39Speaker 1: The environment is exacerbating that. It's led to a very
- 12:42Speaker 1: challenging environment for them. Stay with us through the break
- 12:45Speaker 1: on Rosters to Rings.
- 12:55Speaker 2: Welcome back, listeners, to Rosters to Rings. We're kind of
- 12:59Speaker 2: covering the shifting ground here in Major League Baseball. Some managers,
- 13:04Speaker 2: GMs losing their position, pitching coach losing their positions. It
- 13:08Speaker 2: is August. It's getting late in the season. These things
- 13:10Speaker 2: are going to happen. We were just talking about David
- 13:13Speaker 2: Forrest with the Sacramento A's. We covered the Angels and
- 13:18Speaker 2: Mike Maddox and the pitching staff, pitching coach staff there.
- 13:21Speaker 2: We moved to the Houston Astros on August 24th. The
- 13:24Speaker 2: Astros parted ways with general manager Dana Brown. And I
- 13:28Speaker 2: do believe that their manager is leaving at season's end. Likewise,
- 13:31Speaker 2: I believe that was just declared this past week in
- 13:33Speaker 2: the news. Thad, is there something different about the Astros here?
- 13:38Speaker 2: This is a team. I constantly look at them and think,
- 13:41Speaker 2: how are they winning? They don't spend the most money
- 13:45Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball. They don't particularly draft the youngest,
- 13:49Speaker 2: hottest names. They seem to be going out and kind
- 13:52Speaker 2: of picking up a lot of reclamation projects, guys that
- 13:54Speaker 2: people have overlooked. Maybe they're a little too old to
- 13:56Speaker 2: be considered. a prime, a premier prospect, so to speak
- 14:00Speaker 2: in a draft. What are your, what's your assessment of
- 14:02Speaker 2: the Astros at this point in time?
- 14:04Speaker 1: Well, I think as you juxtapose what's going on with
- 14:07Speaker 1: the A's against the Astros, it's a tale of very
- 14:10Speaker 1: different tales here. So different stories. So in, in, in,
- 14:15Speaker 1: in the A's situation, as we just discussed, you've got
- 14:18Speaker 1: a group that has been intact since 2000. They've had
- 14:22Speaker 1: two GMs during that time, Billy Bean and now David Forrest.
- 14:25Speaker 1: And as a point of reference over that same time,
- 14:28Speaker 1: Anaheim has had six different GMs, Boston six, Miami six,
- 14:32Speaker 1: the Mets have had eight. Well, Houston's a little bit
- 14:34Speaker 1: more along that side where there's been more turnover ever
- 14:37Speaker 1: since Jeff Lue now has left that organization. During David
- 14:40Speaker 1: Forrest's time with the A's, give them a ton of credit.
- 14:44Speaker 1: They've had 11 postseason appearances. They've been above 500 winning team.
- 14:50Speaker 1: With the 28th highest payroll during that time, they've posted
- 14:53Speaker 1: the 10th best wins. Well, there's been a lot more
- 14:56Speaker 1: instability in Houston, as you just referenced. So, you know,
- 14:59Speaker 1: just to level set us and to talk precedentially, the
- 15:04Speaker 1: previous general manager before Dana Brown was James Click. James
- 15:08Speaker 1: Click famously took the team to the World Series in 2022,
- 15:12Speaker 1: won the World Series, and six days later parted ways.
- 15:17Speaker 1: Why did he part ways? It was because the owner
- 15:19Speaker 1: at that time was rumored to have offered him a
- 15:22Speaker 1: one-year extension from as thanks for winning the World Series,
- 15:25Speaker 1: and he didn't deem that worthy of his time, so
- 15:30Speaker 1: he left the franchise. So the franchise last let their
- 15:34Speaker 1: GM go when they won a World Series. Here they're
- 15:36Speaker 1: letting Dana Brown go, Chet, when the team is actually
- 15:40Speaker 1: a half game out of first place. Now, I think
- 15:43Speaker 1: we have to look at both sides of this coin. Yes,
- 15:45Speaker 1: they're technically a half game out. We've talked about it
- 15:47Speaker 1: in shows past. The American League is beleaguered right now.
- 15:51Speaker 2: The whole American.
- 15:52Speaker 1: League West has negative run differential.
- 15:55Speaker 2: Exactly.
- 15:56Speaker 1: Right now, if the playoffs started in the American League,
- 15:59Speaker 1: two of the six participants would have a negative run differential. Chet,
- 16:02Speaker 1: that's happened six times in the last 10 years. It
- 16:05Speaker 1: could happen twice this year.
- 16:07Speaker 2: Sure. They're a half game out of the playoffs. But
- 16:09Speaker 2: they're also a game under.
- 16:11Speaker 1: 500.
- 16:11Speaker 2: Their pitching ranks 26th. Their offense only ranks 10th. I mean,
- 16:14Speaker 2: not bad, but not exactly a playoff team offense there.
- 16:19Speaker 2: They do have Jordan Alvarez, who's probably, probably going to
- 16:23Speaker 2: be the MVP in the American League. I think he's
- 16:25Speaker 2: kind of tracking for that right now. Do you think... Now,
- 16:31Speaker 2: are they ever going to get past the whole trash
- 16:32Speaker 2: can thing? Do people just hate the Astros because of
- 16:36Speaker 2: the trash can World Series? I... I feel like we
- 16:40Speaker 2: can get past that eventually, right?
- 16:42Speaker 1: Eventually, but it hasn't been yet. So as a GM
- 16:46Speaker 1: of the Minnesota Twins, and we had Carlos Correa in
- 16:49Speaker 1: my tenure there, every ballpark we went to, he got
- 16:53Speaker 1: booed relentlessly. The irony of that, Chet, in my mind,
- 16:57Speaker 1: they still do, every one of these guys. The thing
- 17:00Speaker 1: that is remarkable to me is in your very own Detroit,
- 17:04Speaker 1: they would boo him while their manager was A.J.
- 17:07Speaker 2: Hinch.
- 17:08Speaker 1: And in Boston, where Alex Cora was the longtime manager,
- 17:11Speaker 1: they were booing him when their manager was part of
- 17:14Speaker 1: those teams. It's just remarkable the vitriol that fans have
- 17:19Speaker 1: against that team. I'm not sure they're going to be
- 17:22Speaker 1: able to shake that. That is a significant thing. The
- 17:25Speaker 1: other thing I would just say about Dana Brown is
- 17:27Speaker 1: in my career, Dana Brown has had as good a
- 17:30Speaker 1: reputation as anybody has in terms of scouting and player development.
- 17:34Speaker 1: And I think the thought was When they hired him,
- 17:37Speaker 1: Jim Crane brought him in to replace James Click. The
- 17:40Speaker 1: team really needed to rebuild their farm system. Their talent
- 17:44Speaker 1: was at the major league level. Their talent was leaving
- 17:46Speaker 1: the organization in the name of free agency. They needed
- 17:51Speaker 1: to replenish the stock. Unfortunately, as we sit here, Dana
- 17:55Speaker 1: was only there three plus seasons. They still rank in
- 17:58Speaker 1: the range of 28th to 30th in best farm system.
- 18:01Speaker 1: So I think the owner was looking perhaps past just
- 18:05Speaker 1: the major league record in performance to see how the
- 18:09Speaker 1: underpinnings of the organization were doing. Maybe that's where he
- 18:12Speaker 1: felt a little bit of a disconnect with Dana and
- 18:15Speaker 1: himself at this point in their collective careers.
- 18:18Speaker 2: Over in the Astros, and I think you were the
- 18:20Speaker 2: one who told me this at one point in time,
- 18:21Speaker 2: the Astros have been kind of known for operating the
- 18:24Speaker 2: fringes when it comes to scouting, player development, the guys
- 18:27Speaker 2: they're signing. free agents, international signings, things of that nature.
- 18:32Speaker 2: And as their system shows, they're between 28th and 30th.
- 18:36Speaker 2: They don't have the strongest farm system, but they always
- 18:39Speaker 2: seem to produce these guys out of thin air. They
- 18:42Speaker 2: always seem to find that guy, right?
- 18:44Speaker 1: Well, so I think two things have happened for them.
- 18:47Speaker 1: When Jeff Luna was running the franchise, they absolutely embraced
- 18:51Speaker 1: the notion that the best thing in the game is
- 18:54Speaker 1: to win. The second best thing is to lose as
- 18:56Speaker 1: much as you can. They embraced tanking at a level
- 18:58Speaker 1: most teams weren't comfortable doing. They lost 100 games in
- 19:02Speaker 1: three consecutive years, and they picked at the top of
- 19:05Speaker 1: the draft, and they did extremely well when they made
- 19:08Speaker 1: those selections. Concurrently, they also were leveraging a strategy in
- 19:13Speaker 1: the international markets. You can sign players when you're 16
- 19:16Speaker 1: outside of the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. What
- 19:20Speaker 1: they were doing is most teams are exclusively signing 16-year-olds.
- 19:24Speaker 1: They went and signed pitchers who were 18 to 20
- 19:27Speaker 1: years old, players who had been forgotten by other teams
- 19:30Speaker 1: passed over and they were signing them for very small
- 19:34Speaker 1: dollar amounts. So think of Frambois Valdez, Christian Javier, Brian Abreu,
- 19:40Speaker 1: guys like that. These guys who have come up and
- 19:42Speaker 1: done extremely well for them, all of whom were signed
- 19:46Speaker 1: for somewhere between $ 10, 000 and $ 50, 000. So they were spending
- 19:50Speaker 1: lavishly on the draft at the top of the draft,
- 19:53Speaker 1: but they were also spending extremely wisely in the international markets.
- 19:57Speaker 1: Those two pipelines have somewhat dried up over the recent
- 20:00Speaker 1: time for the Houston Astros.
- 20:02Speaker 2: It seems as much. So- I want to take a
- 20:06Speaker 2: slightly different direction here. We talk about the amount of
- 20:10Speaker 2: money being spent by these teams. We looked at the
- 20:13Speaker 2: A's a minute ago. They're getting rid of Dave Forrest.
- 20:15Speaker 2: They also are 28th in total payroll spend right now.
- 20:20Speaker 2: We seem to have a lack of parity in Major
- 20:23Speaker 2: League Baseball. A couple weeks ago, we had Ryan Spielberg
- 20:26Speaker 2: on the show, and he talked about how putting a
- 20:29Speaker 2: salary ceiling in, a salary cap in, is not going
- 20:32Speaker 2: to create parity in Major League Baseball. I know that
- 20:36Speaker 2: You and I have a slightly different opinion of that.
- 20:38Speaker 2: I'm not saying Ryan's wrong per se, but I don't agree.
- 20:43Speaker 2: I think it would create some parity. Naturally, if players
- 20:46Speaker 2: want to go to the West and East Coast and
- 20:48Speaker 2: all the money in the world is there to sign
- 20:50Speaker 2: them and there's no cap on it, yeah, they're going
- 20:52Speaker 2: to go. But the second the Dodgers say, hey, we
- 20:55Speaker 2: can't pay you $ 50 million a season for the next
- 20:57Speaker 2: seven years. We don't have the cap space. It's against
- 21:00Speaker 2: the rules now. If that player, they say, hey, but
- 21:03Speaker 2: we'll pay you 15 because that's what we got left
- 21:05Speaker 2: in cap space. is that player going to be like, yeah,
- 21:07Speaker 2: I really want to play in LA. Give me the
- 21:09Speaker 2: 15 mil a year. No, they're going to go look
- 21:11Speaker 2: for their 45, 50 from a team with cap space
- 21:13Speaker 2: who potentially has to get above a floor. I think
- 21:17Speaker 2: that those two things can work hand in hand and
- 21:19Speaker 2: keep these players making money and create a little parody
- 21:22Speaker 2: and drive them to different teams. What are your, what
- 21:24Speaker 2: are your thoughts here? We've got a lot of stats
- 21:26Speaker 2: around this. We're going to throw out there.
- 21:28Speaker 1: So, so Chip, when I, I've negotiated a lot of
- 21:30Speaker 1: deals in my career and I feel very fortunate to
- 21:33Speaker 1: have had those opportunities and, The vast majority, and we
- 21:37Speaker 1: had a very good conversation with B.B.
- 21:39Speaker 2: Abbott.
- 21:39Speaker 1: He approaches it slightly differently. But the vast majority of
- 21:42Speaker 1: those conversations, the thing that drives where the player is
- 21:45Speaker 1: going to go is where's the most money. And there's
- 21:48Speaker 1: no shame in that. These guys' careers are very fleeting.
- 21:52Speaker 1: They want to make sure they can take care of
- 21:53Speaker 1: their family, their kids, maybe their parents, and so on
- 21:56Speaker 1: and so forth.
- 21:57Speaker 2: Well, can we say it this way, though, Thad? Maybe
- 21:58Speaker 2: it's It's not just the most money, but if it's
- 22:02Speaker 2: between a couple million dollars in a 40 million a
- 22:05Speaker 2: year deal, that AAV, they're probably going to go to
- 22:09Speaker 2: the city they want to be in versus the other.
- 22:11Speaker 2: But if it's 10 million, I think you're talking differently then, right?
- 22:15Speaker 2: Without question.
- 22:16Speaker 1: And so there's always going to be a gravitational pull
- 22:19Speaker 1: to the most money. The secondary things which do matter
- 22:22Speaker 1: for guys, especially as you referenced, when the money is
- 22:25Speaker 1: all equal and fair is It's the location. It's how
- 22:28Speaker 1: competitive that market may be at that time. But it's
- 22:32Speaker 1: really the first criteria is the funds. And so let's
- 22:35Speaker 1: just take a look at it. We can debate Spilly,
- 22:39Speaker 1: and he deserves to be back on at some point
- 22:41Speaker 1: so he can deliver his side of this. But let's
- 22:44Speaker 1: just talk about some of the facts. If you look
- 22:46Speaker 1: at the last five years, the teams that have spent
- 22:50Speaker 1: the most money, the top 10 payroll teams... represent seven
- 22:53Speaker 1: of the teams that have won the most games over
- 22:55Speaker 1: the last five years come out of the top 10 payrolls.
- 22:58Speaker 1: That's just a fact. And the three teams that are
- 23:00Speaker 1: exceptions in terms of being in the top 10 in
- 23:03Speaker 1: payroll but not in top 10 teams and wins are
- 23:06Speaker 1: three teams that we've seen a lot of turnover in,
- 23:08Speaker 1: the Mets, Boston, and Texas. Interestingly, it should be noted,
- 23:11Speaker 1: while Texas sits outside of the top 10 and wins,
- 23:14Speaker 1: they're the one of that group that has actually won
- 23:16Speaker 1: a World Series in the last five years. They did
- 23:18Speaker 1: it in 2023.
- 23:18Speaker 2: With Mike Maddox as their pitching coach, I believe.
- 23:22Speaker 1: Right. full circle here. So two of the teams that
- 23:25Speaker 1: have won the most games in the last five years,
- 23:29Speaker 1: the top 10, come from the middle 10 payrolls, and
- 23:31Speaker 1: that's Milwaukee and Seattle. And Milwaukee over the last five
- 23:34Speaker 1: years is actually ranking second only behind the Dodgers in wins.
- 23:38Speaker 1: There's only one team from the bottom 10 payrolls who
- 23:41Speaker 1: sit in the top 10 in wins. That's Tampa Bay.
- 23:44Speaker 1: If you expand that to finishing in the top 15
- 23:47Speaker 1: in wins, there are two additional teams, Cleveland and Baltimore,
- 23:50Speaker 1: that sneak into being in the bottom 10 payrolls in
- 23:54Speaker 1: the top 15 wins, that just doesn't speak to parity
- 23:57Speaker 1: to me, Chet. That speaks to the fact that the
- 23:59Speaker 1: haves are continuing to separate themselves from the have-nots. And
- 24:03Speaker 1: the rest of us are content with this notion that 70%
- 24:06Speaker 1: of these playoff berths are coming from the top 10 payrolls.
- 24:09Speaker 1: The bottom 20 teams are scrapping and fighting for the
- 24:13Speaker 1: other 30% of playoff berths. That's just not enough to
- 24:16Speaker 1: go around for the other 20 teams.
- 24:18Speaker 2: And I look at these teams, you know, Cleveland- Cleveland
- 24:21Speaker 2: gets in, it's like the AL Central is like the
- 24:23Speaker 2: division of pours here, okay? You've got five teams that
- 24:27Speaker 2: do not spend any money. And so it's kind of
- 24:29Speaker 2: like whoever can just battle and slug it out and
- 24:32Speaker 2: eke their way in, game on the edges type stuff.
- 24:35Speaker 2: And Cleveland has been fortunate enough to get into the
- 24:38Speaker 2: postseason with that lower payroll. If they were in a
- 24:42Speaker 2: better division, I don't think that works. And maybe that
- 24:45Speaker 2: means if they were in a better division, they'd spend more?
- 24:48Speaker 2: Maybe they're saying we don't have to spend that much
- 24:50Speaker 2: to get there?
- 24:51Speaker 1: I think that's exactly it. Because if you look at
- 24:52Speaker 1: it right now, if the season were to end today,
- 24:56Speaker 1: no team from the American League Central or the American
- 24:58Speaker 1: League West would qualify for the playoffs in the National League.
- 25:02Speaker 1: Nine of the top 12 teams would come out of
- 25:04Speaker 1: the National League. Only the three teams in the American League, Tampa,
- 25:08Speaker 1: the Yankees, and the Red Sox would be in the playoffs.
- 25:10Speaker 1: There would be no participation from the Central and the West.
- 25:13Speaker 1: So I think your insight is exactly right. When I
- 25:16Speaker 1: worked in the American League Central, We counted our blessings
- 25:19Speaker 1: every single day that there wasn't a payroll behemoth in
- 25:21Speaker 1: that division. As a result, truly, all you need to
- 25:26Speaker 1: do is win your division. And in this year's case,
- 25:29Speaker 1: right now, as we sit here, the Chicago White Sox
- 25:31Speaker 1: actually would get a bye in the American League. They
- 25:34Speaker 1: wouldn't even make the playoffs.
- 25:35Speaker 2: In the National League. Exactly. They would not even make
- 25:37Speaker 2: the playoffs in the National League. They would get a
- 25:39Speaker 2: bye in the American League. Also, going back to the
- 25:42Speaker 2: Houston Astros being a half game out of the playoffs
- 25:44Speaker 2: right now, And their ownership kind of knowing we aren't
- 25:47Speaker 2: a great team, but we're in a terrible division. So
- 25:50Speaker 2: we're still alive somehow. And we're crushing everybody if they were.
- 25:54Speaker 1: There's seven teams in the American League within four and
- 25:57Speaker 1: a half games of the last wild card spot. Six
- 25:59Speaker 1: of the seven have a negative run differential. And they
- 26:02Speaker 1: have records to reflect that. The team that actually has
- 26:05Speaker 1: the positive run differential is sitting in seventh place out
- 26:07Speaker 1: of that group. And that's your Detroit Tigers. who have
- 26:10Speaker 1: one of the best run differentials in the American League.
- 26:12Speaker 2: But we can't seem to beat the Pirates and the Royals, unfortunately.
- 26:18Speaker 1: Right. But maybe still have one run left in them
- 26:20Speaker 1: because all it may take is one run to start
- 26:23Speaker 1: really leapfrogging some of these teams. It looks as if
- 26:27Speaker 1: you can finish 500 or better in the American League
- 26:30Speaker 1: West or Central, you've got a chance of not only
- 26:32Speaker 1: playing in the playoffs, but if you look at the
- 26:34Speaker 1: track to the playoffs right now, the fourth and fifth
- 26:38Speaker 1: seeds are likely going to be two teams from the
- 26:40Speaker 1: American league East, whoever doesn't win the division and whoever
- 26:44Speaker 1: finishes in third, those two teams will play each other
- 26:46Speaker 1: in the first round. The winner will play the team
- 26:49Speaker 1: that won the American league East because the four or
- 26:51Speaker 1: five winner will play the number one seed, which is
- 26:53Speaker 1: tracking to be Tampa. So that means one team from
- 26:56Speaker 1: the American league East is guaranteed to be in the
- 27:00Speaker 1: American league championship series, but that also means only one
- 27:03Speaker 1: can get there. So one of these teams from the
- 27:05Speaker 1: central of the West is going to get a bit
- 27:08Speaker 1: of a cakewalk to the American League Championship Series, and
- 27:13Speaker 1: they'll have to face off with one of these American
- 27:15Speaker 1: League teams.
- 27:15Speaker 2: With one of the behemoths, right? I mean, one of
- 27:17Speaker 2: the bigger teams. So, I mean, I guess when I
- 27:21Speaker 2: look at this, I wonder to myself, you know, the
- 27:24Speaker 2: baseball used to have a fairly narrow path for the postseason.
- 27:28Speaker 2: You had to be one of about four or six
- 27:31Speaker 2: teams on either side of the league to even get
- 27:34Speaker 2: to the postseason. Now we've expanded the playoffs. We've got
- 27:37Speaker 2: the wild card in there. We've got, do you think
- 27:40Speaker 2: that that kind of, I don't want to say waters
- 27:43Speaker 2: down who makes it into the post season? Cause obviously
- 27:45Speaker 2: it does do a bit. It's keeping more teams in
- 27:47Speaker 2: it for a longer period of time. This conversation with
- 27:52Speaker 2: all these teams that are on the cusp of half
- 27:54Speaker 2: game out and probably isn't happening 10 to 15 years
- 27:57Speaker 2: ago before we had the wild card series happening.
- 27:59Speaker 1: Right. Right. And I think Chet also, here's the distinction
- 28:02Speaker 1: in baseball. It's, Getting to the playoffs is one thing.
- 28:05Speaker 1: Winning when you get there is an entirely different thing.
- 28:08Speaker 1: And when you look at the last five years of
- 28:11Speaker 1: playoff games, there's been a total of 208 playoff games
- 28:13Speaker 1: played in Major League Baseball over the last five years.
- 28:16Speaker 1: Teams with the bottom 10 payroll, so the bottom third
- 28:19Speaker 1: of the teams, of those 10 teams, three have not
- 28:22Speaker 1: appeared in the playoffs at all. That's the A's, Pirates,
- 28:24Speaker 1: and Nationals. Three have appeared but have not won a
- 28:26Speaker 1: single game in the last five years. That's Baltimore, Cincinnati,
- 28:29Speaker 1: and Miami. Arizona represents a disproportionate number of the wins.
- 28:34Speaker 1: They won nine in 2023 en route to going to
- 28:37Speaker 1: the World Series. That year, they actually were technically 19th
- 28:40Speaker 1: in payroll, so they weren't even in the bottom third,
- 28:42Speaker 1: but over the last five years, they have been. But overall,
- 28:45Speaker 1: as a group, of those 208 games, this group has
- 28:48Speaker 1: only won 23 of the games of the total 208.
- 28:52Speaker 1: They've won 11% of the playoff games over the last
- 28:55Speaker 1: five years, and it's not much prettier for the middle
- 28:58Speaker 1: 10 group. That group has two teams that haven't appeared
- 29:01Speaker 1: in the playoffs either, the Rockies and Angels. Three have
- 29:04Speaker 1: not won a single playoff game, and they've won 31
- 29:07Speaker 1: or 15 of the total playoff games. Now we dive
- 29:10Speaker 1: into the top 10 payroll teams. All 10 have at
- 29:13Speaker 1: least one playoff appearance in the last five years. All
- 29:15Speaker 1: 10 have at least seven postseason wins in the last
- 29:19Speaker 1: five years. They boast the top eight in total playoff
- 29:22Speaker 1: wins over the last five seasons. So Eight of the
- 29:25Speaker 1: top 10 teams who've won games in the last five
- 29:28Speaker 1: years come from the top 10 payrolls. And they have
- 29:32Speaker 1: 154 playoff wins during that time. 74% of the playoff
- 29:37Speaker 1: games in the last five years have been won by
- 29:39Speaker 1: top 10s.
- 29:40Speaker 2: Payroll teams.
- 29:41Speaker 1: That is a staggering figure. So yes, some of these
- 29:44Speaker 1: middle and smaller market teams are getting there. They're just
- 29:47Speaker 1: simply not winning when they get there. The Dodgers have
- 29:50Speaker 1: more wins in the last five years in the playoffs
- 29:52Speaker 1: than the entire middle 10 teams combined or the bottom
- 29:57Speaker 1: 10 teams combined.
- 29:58Speaker 2: I mean, one of the things that sticks out to
- 30:00Speaker 2: me because my team I cheer for plays with a
- 30:03Speaker 2: few of these teams, the same division, you've got four
- 30:06Speaker 2: of the bottom 10 smallest markets in MLB since 2000.
- 30:11Speaker 2: Because I think a lot of the stats that you've
- 30:14Speaker 2: spat back at me over the years and stuff that
- 30:15Speaker 2: you've provided even for this show, we go back to
- 30:19Speaker 2: 2000 because I think the economics of baseball changed drastically
- 30:21Speaker 2: after 2000 and prior to 2000. And if you look,
- 30:24Speaker 2: a lot of these teams were in post seasons and
- 30:27Speaker 2: when it was more difficult to get to the post
- 30:29Speaker 2: season prior to the economics of baseball, taking a huge leap,
- 30:32Speaker 2: but St. Louis been there six times. They have two wins. Okay.
- 30:36Speaker 2: They are, they kind of remind me from the early
- 30:39Speaker 2: two thousands into the 2000 teams. They remind me of
- 30:42Speaker 2: that team that just kept making the NL central. They
- 30:44Speaker 2: keep beating my cubs, kept making it to the post season.
- 30:47Speaker 2: They had, they kind of ran the NL central for
- 30:50Speaker 2: many years there. And that like the AL central, nobody
- 30:53Speaker 2: was spending money. In that division at that point in time.
- 30:56Speaker 2: So it gave them this open door. Casey's been there
- 30:59Speaker 2: twice and they've won it once, but we haven't seen
- 31:01Speaker 2: Casey in a post-season in a little while per, per my,
- 31:05Speaker 2: when I look back Cleveland, one appearance, Colorado, one appearance
- 31:10Speaker 2: in the world series. That's it in 27, 26 years.
- 31:13Speaker 2: So I think there is definitely a parody issue here
- 31:17Speaker 2: that I think we're seeing it play out. And if
- 31:20Speaker 2: we're not willing to put a cap in place, I
- 31:22Speaker 2: don't think we'll ever know if it's truly effective or
- 31:25Speaker 2: not at creating that parity. Is that something that you
- 31:28Speaker 2: think is safe to say at this point? I mean,
- 31:30Speaker 2: you can set the cap high and I'm a big
- 31:33Speaker 2: fan of the floor, but if we don't get a cap,
- 31:36Speaker 2: nobody can sit there and say that it won't create parity,
- 31:39Speaker 2: at least until that happens.
- 31:40Speaker 1: I think we are, as a sport, we are certainly
- 31:44Speaker 1: leaning into this notion that we've had more teams appear
- 31:47Speaker 1: in the playoffs than the other leagues. And that does
- 31:49Speaker 1: stand true. We have had about 50% of our teams
- 31:54Speaker 1: appear in the playoffs in the last 10 years. And
- 31:56Speaker 1: that is more than the NFL and the NBA. Not
- 31:58Speaker 1: dramatically more, but it is more.
- 32:00Speaker 2: But we have expanded it to make it.
- 32:01Speaker 1: We have expanded it. And I think what we're missing
- 32:05Speaker 1: is exactly the point you made, Chet, which is, yes,
- 32:08Speaker 1: they're getting there. But when you talk about over the
- 32:12Speaker 1: last 50 teams to participate in the World Series, only
- 32:16Speaker 1: four of them coming from small markets. And let's keep
- 32:19Speaker 1: in mind, St. Louis has tremendous revenue generation. Their payroll
- 32:23Speaker 1: has never been a small market payroll. Kansas City's was,
- 32:26Speaker 1: Cleveland was, Colorado was at time. They've also sat in
- 32:29Speaker 1: the middle tier payrolls. So their payrolls haven't necessarily spoken
- 32:32Speaker 1: to them, but we're seeing it in the NBA. We're
- 32:34Speaker 1: seeing teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio in The NFL,
- 32:39Speaker 1: we're seeing teams like Kansas City and Green Bay participate
- 32:42Speaker 1: and play for and win championships and so forth. So
- 32:47Speaker 1: I think the part that you and I probably disagree
- 32:50Speaker 1: a little bit with Spilly on is this notion that
- 32:53Speaker 1: we clearly have parity. We don't need to change. I
- 32:55Speaker 1: think the part that you and I probably do agree
- 32:57Speaker 1: with Spilly on is the notion that you just brought up,
- 33:00Speaker 1: which is let's just get very aggressive. If we want
- 33:03Speaker 1: to have a ceiling, let's have a very aggressive floor.
- 33:06Speaker 1: which is to say, let's raise that floor up because
- 33:09Speaker 1: if we do that, we'll get more money to the players.
- 33:11Speaker 1: We'll share more of the money and the revenue with
- 33:13Speaker 1: the players. That also seems equitable and fair. That should
- 33:18Speaker 1: lend itself to more parity, but let's stop fixating on
- 33:22Speaker 1: the fact that the taboo nature of a ceiling, let's
- 33:26Speaker 1: more focus on how much can we move that floor
- 33:28Speaker 1: up so that every fan out there It's not that
- 33:30Speaker 1: we're against dynasties. It's we're against this notion that only
- 33:33Speaker 1: five markets can actually experience a dynasty.
- 33:35Speaker 2: Moving the floor up is the one true thing that'll
- 33:38Speaker 2: make the cheap owner, quote unquote, pay a little more, right?
- 33:42Speaker 2: I mean, if you don't put a cap, you put
- 33:46Speaker 2: a cap in there, doesn't mean they're going to spend
- 33:47Speaker 2: more money, okay? They might have more players out there
- 33:50Speaker 2: to pick from, but doesn't mean that certain GMs are
- 33:54Speaker 2: going to spend more money. But if you put the
- 33:56Speaker 2: floor in there, it forces their hand, and they're going
- 33:59Speaker 2: to have to go out and find a few guys
- 34:01Speaker 2: to get above that floor. I like the floor better maybe, though,
- 34:05Speaker 2: than anything else they could do.
- 34:08Speaker 1: You know, there's going to be a lot of negotiations
- 34:09Speaker 1: behind the scene, but a lot of the favor of
- 34:13Speaker 1: this will be public opinion. And I do think a
- 34:17Speaker 1: public relations tact that the player side could certainly take
- 34:22Speaker 1: is rather than fighting this notion of a ceiling, Let's
- 34:26Speaker 1: embrace the heck out of the owner's posturing that we
- 34:29Speaker 1: want to have more parity and then say the way
- 34:31Speaker 1: we think we should achieve parity is by having them
- 34:34Speaker 1: spend a lot more consistently on the players. Here's our
- 34:38Speaker 1: aggressive platform that we're going to do. Now they shift
- 34:41Speaker 1: back to the owners who will then have to say, wait, wait,
- 34:43Speaker 1: we don't want to spend that much, but we got
- 34:46Speaker 1: our ceiling. We've got our parity. Then how do they
- 34:49Speaker 1: dispute the fact that the raising of the floor would
- 34:51Speaker 1: actually help the game more? baseball and make it more competitive?
- 34:55Speaker 1: I think then the owners have to answer that because
- 34:57Speaker 1: I think a subtle element here is as much as
- 35:01Speaker 1: the commissioner's side on behalf of the owners would like
- 35:03Speaker 1: to have a ceiling, the notion of a floor is
- 35:06Speaker 1: problematic for some of the smaller market teams absent of
- 35:09Speaker 1: like aggressive revenue sharing. So put the owners back on
- 35:13Speaker 1: their heels. Let's really talk about parity and how we
- 35:16Speaker 1: can achieve that. Let's achieve that through an aggressive floor
- 35:19Speaker 1: in addition to a ceiling rather than the ceiling alone.
- 35:22Speaker 2: Folks, when we return, we're going to evaluate some of
- 35:26Speaker 2: the worst contracts going right now in baseball, football. We're
- 35:31Speaker 2: going to talk about a few guys that kind of
- 35:33Speaker 2: stick out for their fan bases.
- 35:43Speaker 1: Welcome back to Rosters to Rings. We're about to delve into,
- 35:46Speaker 1: we just talked about payrolls on the team level. Now
- 35:50Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the impact of errantly signing
- 35:54Speaker 1: a player to a deal that overpays him relative to
- 35:58Speaker 1: his contributions. Chet, my positioning in this is that really
- 36:03Speaker 1: everyone loses for this. And most GMs, if they were
- 36:07Speaker 1: to put out a coffee table book, they have a
- 36:09Speaker 1: player or players that they've signed to deals that just
- 36:12Speaker 1: unfortunately misaligned with the quality of performance and contribution that
- 36:17Speaker 1: that player delivers. Yes, the player gets rich in this.
- 36:21Speaker 1: But he also becomes a pariah in his marketplace. And
- 36:23Speaker 1: I don't think that's a good thing. You don't want
- 36:26Speaker 1: to be the player who's on, unfortunately, those annual articles
- 36:29Speaker 1: and lists of here are the 10 worst contracts in
- 36:33Speaker 1: baseball or football or the NBA. That is not where
- 36:36Speaker 1: you want to live. So I actually don't think players
- 36:39Speaker 1: want to be on these lists. I don't think agents
- 36:41Speaker 1: want to get their players on this list. So yes,
- 36:43Speaker 1: they got paid a lot of money. They're not winning
- 36:45Speaker 1: from these. GMs tend to get fired from signing these.
- 36:50Speaker 1: Because all of a sudden now you have a failure
- 36:54Speaker 1: on your ledger. You also have spent a disproportional amount
- 36:57Speaker 1: of your payroll on a singular player who's not contributing.
- 37:00Speaker 1: It then tends to cost the fans because now you're
- 37:04Speaker 1: not competitive anymore because you've misallocated your funds towards a
- 37:08Speaker 1: player who unfortunately, due to maybe it's injury, maybe it's
- 37:12Speaker 1: due to decline, is just not performing. So I think
- 37:15Speaker 1: the player loses maybe not quite as much as everyone else.
- 37:18Speaker 1: The GM tends to lose, and the fans sure as
- 37:21Speaker 1: heck lose in this process when you sign players to
- 37:24Speaker 1: some of these onerous deals.
- 37:26Speaker 2: As a fan, it's one thing to pay a guy
- 37:29Speaker 2: and they don't perform. It's another thing to pay a guy,
- 37:34Speaker 2: they don't perform, and there's usually some other little thing
- 37:36Speaker 2: attached to it. Maybe their attitude goes to pot. Maybe
- 37:41Speaker 2: they have some sort of a legal issue that comes
- 37:45Speaker 2: trailing along with that massive contract and one of the
- 37:48Speaker 2: you know you sent me some for this section you
- 37:51Speaker 2: sent me a few guys that we wanted to talk
- 37:53Speaker 2: about this week and deshaun watson's one of them so
- 37:56Speaker 2: we'll start with football that okay and i this this
- 38:00Speaker 2: is a deal that would drive me crazy if i
- 38:02Speaker 2: was a browns fan because you have a guy who's
- 38:05Speaker 2: a very talented quarterback and at one time was playing
- 38:09Speaker 2: up there in the top you know quarter of the
- 38:11Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the league easily top 10 um maybe top
- 38:15Speaker 2: five at one point in time earned himself a huge
- 38:18Speaker 2: contract with the Cleveland Browns. 2022, they signed him to
- 38:23Speaker 2: a five-year, $ 230 million contract. You ask Browns fans now
- 38:27Speaker 2: how they feel about that deal, it's not going that well.
- 38:31Speaker 2: I mean, he was jeered this past week after being
- 38:34Speaker 2: named the starter by his own fan base, I believed.
- 38:37Speaker 2: at a game at a practice facility or a exhibition
- 38:40Speaker 2: of some sort is, I mean, this is a record
- 38:43Speaker 2: setting deal. It's guaranteed 230 million fully guaranteed. And I
- 38:46Speaker 2: think there's something like 120 still left on this, that
- 38:50Speaker 2: he's going to get paid. So what is that like
- 38:53Speaker 2: in your eyes? I mean, you've done this in baseball
- 38:55Speaker 2: a little bit, but like football, you've got guaranteed money.
- 38:59Speaker 2: If it's not guaranteed money, a lot of football contracts
- 39:01Speaker 2: don't have that guaranteed money tied to it. They have different,
- 39:04Speaker 2: they have a different structure there. Um, it, What is
- 39:07Speaker 2: the thought in the front office when you've got this
- 39:10Speaker 2: albatross of a contract out there and you got this
- 39:12Speaker 2: guy who's just kind of lighting the world on fire
- 39:15Speaker 2: under his feet? He's not doing anything on the field.
- 39:18Speaker 2: He's got legal issues, maybe an attitude problem. How do
- 39:22Speaker 2: you attack that as a front office person?
- 39:25Speaker 1: Well, Chet, let's dive into a little bit of the
- 39:28Speaker 1: history because it's so unique. You know, I shot you
- 39:30Speaker 1: those names, you came back with some real insights as
- 39:33Speaker 1: to how this one really stands out as being so unique.
- 39:36Speaker 1: And really what prompted the segment was how he is
- 39:39Speaker 1: back in the news after Ben, quite frankly, kind of
- 39:43Speaker 1: in the shadows for quite some time. But lest we forget,
- 39:46Speaker 1: before he signed this record-setting deal, It was in 2021
- 39:50Speaker 1: that dozens of civil lawsuits were levied against him by
- 39:54Speaker 1: massage therapists for alleged sexual misconduct. At that time, he's
- 39:59Speaker 1: part of the Houston Texans. In conjunction with the team,
- 40:04Speaker 1: he decides to sit out for the entire 2021 season.
- 40:07Speaker 1: And he requests a trade away from that market. So
- 40:11Speaker 1: Cleveland first had to trade for him before they signed him,
- 40:14Speaker 1: but they traded for him when this transgression was being still,
- 40:20Speaker 1: I guess, litigated. And then they get him in 2022.
- 40:25Speaker 1: He ultimately gets traded. He signs the deal. He gets
- 40:28Speaker 1: suspended for 11 games by the league for his issues.
- 40:34Speaker 1: And then from that point forward, It's been just injury
- 40:38Speaker 1: after injury. He misses most of the 2023 season with
- 40:42Speaker 1: a shoulder issue, and then he had a fracture of
- 40:46Speaker 1: his scapula. 2024, he ruptures his Achilles. He then re-ruptures it,
- 40:51Speaker 1: so he misses 24 and 25. So this literally could
- 40:55Speaker 1: not be going worse. You inherit a player who's got
- 40:58Speaker 1: a legal issue, which is going to polarize him to
- 41:00Speaker 1: begin with, but you knew that. He then sustains a
- 41:04Speaker 1: suspension and effectively... two massive injuries, which have cost him
- 41:09Speaker 1: the better part of two and a half seasons. He's
- 41:12Speaker 1: in position now to get on the field for really
- 41:15Speaker 1: the first time in almost his entire time there, unencumbered.
- 41:19Speaker 1: But as you said, when he was announced as a starter,
- 41:25Speaker 1: he gets booed for that. So that's the state of
- 41:28Speaker 1: affairs here, which almost, I can't imagine a dynamic which
- 41:33Speaker 1: could be worse for front office. What is remarkable is
- 41:36Speaker 1: Usually when these things happen, unfortunately, the GM loses their job.
- 41:41Speaker 1: That hasn't taken place here. The head coach, Kevin Stefanski,
- 41:44Speaker 1: lost his job. The GM is still in place, so
- 41:46Speaker 1: he's still having to answer these questions of why did
- 41:49Speaker 1: they trade for him, why did they sign him, and
- 41:51Speaker 1: why are they giving him the starting job?
- 41:53Speaker 2: I mean, I'll be curious to see what the 2026
- 41:55Speaker 2: version of Deshaun Watson looks like. He's, at one point
- 41:58Speaker 2: in time, a very mobile quarterback, can move quite well.
- 42:02Speaker 2: He ruptures his Achilles 2024. He re-ruptures his Achilles 2025.
- 42:07Speaker 2: Usually doing this more than once is not a good thing.
- 42:10Speaker 2: It's one of those things. It's kind of like a
- 42:12Speaker 2: concussion almost. It's easier for it to come back and
- 42:14Speaker 2: keep happening. I got to believe that's going to hurt
- 42:18Speaker 2: his mobility a little bit. But he's been there for
- 42:21Speaker 2: three years. He's played 19 games. Browns are paying him
- 42:25Speaker 2: nine mil a start. Browns are nine and 10 in
- 42:28Speaker 2: his starts. So they paid him quite a bit to
- 42:30Speaker 2: lose half the time. And they've paid, you know, just
- 42:34Speaker 2: over 19 million per win. The team is 26 and
- 42:37Speaker 2: 42 cents. And obviously they've kind of struggled. They've had
- 42:41Speaker 2: this carousel of quarterbacks in there to try and fill
- 42:44Speaker 2: in the gaps where Deshaun hasn't been able to play.
- 42:47Speaker 2: They've got all this money sunk into him. They've drafted guys.
- 42:50Speaker 2: Dylan Gabriel's made some appearances. Shador Sanders. I wonder how
- 42:54Speaker 2: much of the fan base kind of wishes they could
- 42:56Speaker 2: just cut bait and try Shador Sanders out going forward
- 42:59Speaker 2: or Dylan Gabriel. I mean, what is the, at this point,
- 43:02Speaker 2: it seems like they're stuck.
- 43:04Speaker 1: Well, and, and, and Chad, I think the other thing
- 43:06Speaker 1: that you illuminate there is the fact that this isn't
- 43:09Speaker 1: a team that was rebuilding at this time. They, they
- 43:12Speaker 1: got this guy as a bit of a finishing piece.
- 43:14Speaker 1: He was one of the more dynamic threats as a quarterback.
- 43:17Speaker 1: When they acquired him, they'd already built up their defense
- 43:21Speaker 1: during his tenure as The fact that they're 26 and
- 43:24Speaker 1: 42 has everything to do with the fact that their
- 43:26Speaker 1: defense has been one of the preeminent defenses in the NFL.
- 43:30Speaker 1: They've squandered that time. Miles Garrett was, I think, named
- 43:33Speaker 1: the defensive player of the year last year. They ultimately
- 43:36Speaker 1: trade him because they unfortunately squandered what was one of
- 43:39Speaker 1: the better defenses in the game. And Kevin Stefanski immediately
- 43:44Speaker 1: gets picked up by the Atlanta Falcons upon his dismissal.
- 43:47Speaker 1: So they were viewed to have a competitive advantage at
- 43:50Speaker 1: head coach, And on the defensive side of the game,
- 43:52Speaker 1: which is probably the side much more difficult to build up,
- 43:55Speaker 1: they thought this guy was going to be the piece
- 43:57Speaker 1: that took him to the next level. Lo and behold,
- 44:00Speaker 1: the fact that he's been what he has been, which
- 44:03Speaker 1: is marred with injury and substandard performance, has really set
- 44:07Speaker 1: this franchise back during a time where they thought they
- 44:09Speaker 1: were poised to strike in what is one of the
- 44:12Speaker 1: better divisions in all the NFL.
- 44:14Speaker 2: I have a question for you. Kevin Stefanski has been
- 44:16Speaker 2: fired recently. If you I don't know if you've had
- 44:21Speaker 2: this experience before in baseball, but are there certain organizations that,
- 44:25Speaker 2: you know, are just a little weaker? They don't quite
- 44:27Speaker 2: operate at the top of their game. And when they
- 44:31Speaker 2: let a person go, are you kind of like, hey,
- 44:33Speaker 2: that's a quality piece they couldn't make fit? Let's go
- 44:36Speaker 2: jump on that guy. Are there certain organizations you keep
- 44:39Speaker 2: an eye out for that? We've I have friends of
- 44:40Speaker 2: mine that have made jokes that like, you know, if
- 44:42Speaker 2: we get a player from X team. they probably weren't
- 44:45Speaker 2: utilized right or developed properly. And our team can do better.
- 44:48Speaker 2: Like they're a great team to trade with where you
- 44:50Speaker 2: got other teams where you're like, I don't want to
- 44:52Speaker 2: trade with them. They know what they've got and they
- 44:53Speaker 2: do the best with what they have. If they're willing
- 44:56Speaker 2: to get rid of prospect day, there probably aren't any good.
- 44:58Speaker 2: Is that, is there a little bit of a menu
- 45:01Speaker 2: out there for you guys in front offices? It's kind
- 45:03Speaker 2: of go here. Don't go there. Yeah.
- 45:06Speaker 1: So the answer is absolutely. I think that really factors
- 45:09Speaker 1: into player acquisitions. So when you're acquiring players, we have
- 45:13Speaker 1: sophisticated systems that identify their talents. Subsequently, we also have
- 45:18Speaker 1: systems that identify how underutilized those talents have been. And
- 45:23Speaker 1: so if we see a gap there, we are more
- 45:26Speaker 1: inclined to pay for that player. Whereas sometimes we find
- 45:31Speaker 1: that players are being optimized. And so we just evaluate
- 45:34Speaker 1: that a little bit differently. So what you're getting is
- 45:36Speaker 1: what you should expect. Whereas sometimes when you're acquiring a
- 45:39Speaker 1: player from a franchise that doesn't develop, let's say, pitching
- 45:42Speaker 1: quite as well. We think there's a real ground to
- 45:45Speaker 1: be made up.
- 45:45Speaker 2: There's an upside.
- 45:47Speaker 1: Yeah. And Chet, I'll share this with you, that when
- 45:51Speaker 1: working with the Milwaukee Brewers, when you talk to players
- 45:53Speaker 1: who we acquire, one of the things you hear from
- 45:56Speaker 1: them is an enthusiasm and excitement about the perception that
- 46:00Speaker 1: we must have resources other teams don't have. And they're
- 46:02Speaker 1: ecstatic at the notion that they now get exposed to them.
- 46:05Speaker 1: So I think it also cuts both ways, which is
- 46:08Speaker 1: not only are we maybe a acquiring people staff players
- 46:13Speaker 1: that are in some of these underserved places but I
- 46:15Speaker 1: think those players are also desirous of coming to your
- 46:18Speaker 1: organization if you if you gain notoriety as doing things
- 46:22Speaker 1: a little bit more progressively than others both of those
- 46:25Speaker 1: things are creating gaps between the teams that are doing
- 46:27Speaker 1: it the right way and teams that are lagging behind
- 46:30Speaker 1: but then the other side of this coin because we've
- 46:32Speaker 1: talked about the Anaheim Angels and their change of leadership
- 46:37Speaker 1: the the the now Sacramento A's and their change of leadership.
- 46:41Speaker 1: When you're looking at those through the lens of a
- 46:44Speaker 1: perspective candidate to be a GM there, you do look
- 46:47Speaker 1: at how much gains can be made significantly quickly and
- 46:50Speaker 1: efficiently based upon a evaluation of where are their strengths,
- 46:55Speaker 1: where are they a little bit behind. Make no mistake,
- 46:57Speaker 1: anytime there's changes, they're deficient in some area. If that
- 47:01Speaker 1: matches up with your strength, you can not only hit
- 47:04Speaker 1: the ground walking into those jobs, you can hit the
- 47:06Speaker 1: ground sprinting and show meaningful gains in those markets in
- 47:10Speaker 1: a very short period of time. Whereas if that organization
- 47:13Speaker 1: is clicking under all cylinders and just decide to make
- 47:15Speaker 1: a change, there's a lot less impact you can have
- 47:18Speaker 1: as a potential executive than you may have elsewhere.
- 47:22Speaker 2: I'm not going to make you name those organizations. You'll
- 47:25Speaker 2: tell me offline, okay? Because I'm very curious to know
- 47:29Speaker 2: whom they are. I tried to identify in the NFL
- 47:32Speaker 2: here and there, and you kind of can pick up
- 47:34Speaker 2: on that stuff. But We'll talk about that later. We
- 47:36Speaker 2: won't have you do that on the air. So we're
- 47:38Speaker 2: going to go to a guy near and dear in
- 47:40Speaker 2: my heart here. This is another contract that you had
- 47:43Speaker 2: brought into the fold, and I think it's one of
- 47:45Speaker 2: the more obvious baseball contracts. Chris Bryant captivated the Chicago
- 47:51Speaker 2: fan bases in the teens. Coming up when he came
- 47:54Speaker 2: up in 2014, he was electric. You know, 2015, rookie
- 47:56Speaker 2: of the year, 2016 World Series. This guy looked... like
- 48:05Speaker 2: he had the surefire Hall of Fame stamp on him.
- 48:09Speaker 2: And he was awesome to watch play. He really was.
- 48:11Speaker 2: I don't think he was ever an incredible defender or
- 48:13Speaker 2: anything like that. But at the plate, he did it,
- 48:16Speaker 2: and he did it when it mattered. Then, as sad
- 48:20Speaker 2: as Chicago fans get, towards the end of his tenure there,
- 48:24Speaker 2: he started to get a little fragile. And I think
- 48:29Speaker 2: Chicago dealt him off to San Francisco at midseason during
- 48:33Speaker 2: a fairly poor I think it was the 2021 season,
- 48:37Speaker 2: if I'm not mistaken. And subsequently, he went on to
- 48:41Speaker 2: have a decent postseason and stay healthy. He then comes
- 48:44Speaker 2: out and Bryant signs a seven-year, $ 182 million contract with
- 48:49Speaker 2: the Rockies in 2022. This contract has failed. I mean,
- 48:55Speaker 2: this has been one of the saddest things to see
- 48:57Speaker 2: in baseball. He can't stay healthy. I believe he has
- 49:02Speaker 2: played I think he's had like 700 at bats for
- 49:07Speaker 2: the Rockies over the course of the four seasons now. Right.
- 49:11Speaker 2: Since 2022 that he's been there, he still hasn't played.
- 49:14Speaker 2: I don't think he's had that bad this season yet.
- 49:16Speaker 2: Still injured. He's got back issues, you know. it's, this is,
- 49:21Speaker 2: this all goes back. They were driven to make this
- 49:24Speaker 2: signing because they got rid of Arenado. They traded Arenado off.
- 49:28Speaker 2: What do you, does that, do you feel forced into,
- 49:30Speaker 2: was that a forced deal? I mean, was, Chris Bryant
- 49:33Speaker 2: did not, I remember when he made this signing, they
- 49:36Speaker 2: were shopping him around, shopping him around. I was like,
- 49:37Speaker 2: none of the big teams are going out and grabbing him.
- 49:39Speaker 2: Does somebody know something? Is he still hurt? Is he
- 49:42Speaker 2: still a little dinged up? And then the Rockies go
- 49:44Speaker 2: and do it. And I'm like, I remember a lot
- 49:46Speaker 2: of people saying this seems like a forced, like the
- 49:48Speaker 2: Rockies had to do it to appease a fan base.
- 49:51Speaker 1: Well, well, Chad, I think this ties a few of
- 49:53Speaker 1: the points we've discussed earlier in the episode together, which
- 49:56Speaker 1: is when you see a player of this magnitude sign
- 49:59Speaker 1: a deal like this with the Colorado Rockies, it does
- 50:02Speaker 1: rise an eyebrow because the Colorado Rockies were not particularly
- 50:06Speaker 1: competitive in 2022 and Chris Bryant had only ever played
- 50:11Speaker 1: in competitive environments. So why would he sign a deal
- 50:14Speaker 1: like this there? And I think the only conclusion you
- 50:17Speaker 1: could draw is they were the number one bidder and
- 50:19Speaker 1: not by a small margin. So whomever finished in second place,
- 50:22Speaker 1: my guess will never reveal, but we'll find out was
- 50:27Speaker 1: quite in the rear view mirror of the Colorado Rockies here.
- 50:31Speaker 1: You brought up the Nolan Arenado deal. And I think
- 50:33Speaker 1: this is something none of us aspire to do. But
- 50:36Speaker 1: I think sometimes this does happen circumstantially. So remember in 2019,
- 50:40Speaker 1: the Colorado Rockies signed Nolan Arenado, a hometown draft pick,
- 50:44Speaker 1: a absolute dynamic defensive player. He was winning platinum gloves,
- 50:49Speaker 1: which is to say he was the best defender in
- 50:51Speaker 1: the National League on a yearly basis. They signed him
- 50:55Speaker 1: to a nine-year, $ 275 million deal with a full no
- 50:59Speaker 1: trade clause, as he probably deserved. It wasn't... Two seasons
- 51:03Speaker 1: later in 2021 that they trade Arenado to St. Louis
- 51:07Speaker 1: for three prospects who candidly have not really panned out
- 51:10Speaker 1: for them. They also send on $ 51 million to the
- 51:13Speaker 1: Cardinals to offset Arenado's salary in kind of a boomerang
- 51:18Speaker 1: play because they now have voided their number one marketable asset.
- 51:24Speaker 2: He was the face of the franchise.
- 51:25Speaker 1: Face of the franchise and deservedly so. They start getting
- 51:28Speaker 1: a lot of negative publicity for being cheap and just
- 51:31Speaker 1: trying to jettison all the players who are signed to
- 51:34Speaker 1: big deals. They feel the pressure. I don't know how
- 51:37Speaker 1: much they were pursuing Chris Bryant before this, but this
- 51:40Speaker 1: maybe pushes them over the finish line. They signed Chris Bryant,
- 51:44Speaker 1: and what's happened since then has been devastating, both for
- 51:47Speaker 1: Bryant and for the Rockies. Ernado goes on and is
- 51:50Speaker 1: a good, if not very good, player for the Cardinals.
- 51:54Speaker 1: He accumulates 20.5 war cents a trade. Since signing Chris Bryant,
- 51:58Speaker 1: Chris Bryant has accumulated negative 2.9 war, which makes him
- 52:03Speaker 1: one of the worst performing players in the tenure he
- 52:07Speaker 1: has had with the Rockies. That's what they got for
- 52:10Speaker 1: 182 million. In contrast to the Cleveland Browns situation, GM
- 52:14Speaker 1: Jeff Brightish loses his job. Manager Bud Black loses their job.
- 52:18Speaker 1: Are they directly related to this deal?
- 52:21Speaker 2: Maybe not.
- 52:21Speaker 1: But this certainly did not help the cause for those
- 52:24Speaker 1: two gentlemen, as now we see a totally different leadership
- 52:27Speaker 1: in Colorado. And Chris Bryant, to your point, is sitting
- 52:30Speaker 1: on the aisle somewhere. He is not in a position
- 52:33Speaker 1: to contribute to this team. A lot of this was
- 52:36Speaker 1: health issues. A lot of this was potentially just this
- 52:40Speaker 1: was a this just didn't work out for him. But
- 52:43Speaker 1: the net effect of this is, unfortunately, this is one
- 52:46Speaker 1: of the worst contracts signed in the recent era in
- 52:49Speaker 1: Major League Baseball.
- 52:50Speaker 2: I mean, he's in a hitter's ballpark, and he has
- 52:52Speaker 2: a negative 2.9 war in the games he's played for
- 52:55Speaker 2: them over the last four seasons. I remember when this happened,
- 52:58Speaker 2: I was like, he's going to crush the ball in
- 53:00Speaker 2: that ballpark. He's going to break home run records. He's
- 53:02Speaker 2: going to be incredible. And we just haven't even got
- 53:04Speaker 2: to see him play. It is sad. You don't like
- 53:07Speaker 2: to see that for the player, and he certainly isn't
- 53:09Speaker 2: going to be going out on the, you know, cloud
- 53:12Speaker 2: nine here with his career, as many people thought he
- 53:15Speaker 2: would be. I think these are two instances here where
- 53:20Speaker 2: a couple deals have gone sideways. Do deals like this
- 53:24Speaker 2: scare GMs away from making these deals? Are these in
- 53:28Speaker 2: the back of your head? When you go sign a
- 53:30Speaker 2: guy and there's even the slightest little question, a big
- 53:33Speaker 2: deal like that, does it kind of stick there? And
- 53:35Speaker 2: you kind of say, I don't know if I want
- 53:37Speaker 2: to get bit like that guy did.
- 53:39Speaker 1: Well, I think the answer is unequivocally yes. So we're
- 53:43Speaker 1: a little bit more tolerant to do it on the
- 53:45Speaker 1: position player side because they tend to be healthier. This
- 53:47Speaker 1: obviously is not that case. The pitching side is very daunting,
- 53:51Speaker 1: but you see franchises out there. So, you know, we
- 53:54Speaker 1: talked earlier about the New York Mets has had a
- 53:56Speaker 1: top 10 payroll for the recent past. They have not
- 54:00Speaker 1: been in the top 10 in wins. One of the
- 54:02Speaker 1: things that they don't do is they've been very disciplined.
- 54:05Speaker 1: They're not signing pitchers to deals longer than three years.
- 54:08Speaker 1: They have not signed outside of the Juan Soto deal.
- 54:11Speaker 1: They've let a lot of their star caliber position players go. Similarly,
- 54:16Speaker 1: one of the things that Jim Crane is famous for
- 54:18Speaker 1: in Houston is they also have not paid lavishly for
- 54:23Speaker 1: some of these guys. The net effect of that is
- 54:25Speaker 1: when you look back to their 2017 World Series group,
- 54:29Speaker 1: George Springer is gone. Alex Bregman is gone. Carlos Correa
- 54:34Speaker 1: is gone. Justin Verlander is no longer with the team.
- 54:37Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned a couple of these guys. Bregman, Kyle
- 54:39Speaker 2: Tucker was another of theirs. You got Springer. And those
- 54:44Speaker 2: guys also didn't get huge deals coming away from Houston.
- 54:47Speaker 2: There were question marks around them. I'm wondering, you know,
- 54:49Speaker 2: were people looking at them in a similar light as
- 54:51Speaker 2: a Chris Bryant and thinking to themselves, like, these guys
- 54:54Speaker 2: could track to that and would probably want to hold back?
- 54:57Speaker 2: And so what do they do? They go get that
- 55:00Speaker 2: one-year prove-it deal or that one-year Tie me over at
- 55:04Speaker 2: a high AAV. So it's a minimal investment for that team, right?
- 55:08Speaker 2: Is that kind of the new utility front offices are
- 55:11Speaker 2: using when there's question marks around guys like that?
- 55:14Speaker 1: Well, that's exactly how the Minnesota Twins were able to
- 55:16Speaker 1: play on a player of the caliber of Carlos Correa.
- 55:19Speaker 1: His market didn't materialize. We signed him to a one-year
- 55:22Speaker 1: deal that then turned into a longer-term relationship. But the
- 55:25Speaker 1: safe play for general managers is to never sign these
- 55:27Speaker 1: deals because even when we do sign them, we tend
- 55:30Speaker 1: to present them to ownership and say, hey, it's a
- 55:32Speaker 1: seven-year $ 182 million deal, but let's be realistic. He's probably
- 55:36Speaker 1: going to spend one year on the IL. So over
- 55:38Speaker 1: the course of those seven, so it's really a six-year 182.
- 55:41Speaker 1: We certainly don't expect that the wheels are going to
- 55:43Speaker 1: come off this early in the process and really cripple
- 55:47Speaker 1: those types of deals. The safe play is to not
- 55:49Speaker 1: sign those deals. But if you're safe in these roles
- 55:52Speaker 1: and My good friend John Daniels always said, then you're
- 55:55Speaker 1: just shooting par and you rarely win a golf tournament
- 55:58Speaker 1: shooting par. At some point, you got to take risks
- 56:00Speaker 1: and assess risk. You got to fly the water from
- 56:02Speaker 1: time to time. Yes, you may drop it in the drink,
- 56:05Speaker 1: but you also may get to the green two strokes early.
- 56:07Speaker 1: And that's how you win a championship. So it's a
- 56:10Speaker 1: risk tolerance setup against making the right calculated decisions. But
- 56:15Speaker 1: a lot of general managers who are extremely intelligent have
- 56:18Speaker 1: lost their jobs because they took a bigger risk than
- 56:20Speaker 1: they should have in a certain circumstance. And it just
- 56:22Speaker 1: simply didn't work out.
- 56:24Speaker 2: Well, I'm going to use that, Thad. You got to
- 56:26Speaker 2: fly the water once in a while. I kind of
- 56:28Speaker 2: enjoy that. That's great. I'm a golfer. I'm going to
- 56:30Speaker 2: use that. Folks, thanks for hanging out with us today
- 56:34Speaker 2: on Rosters to Rings. We covered quite a few topics
- 56:37Speaker 2: for you. We will be back this Thursday and every
- 56:40Speaker 2: Thursday on Rosters to Range.