Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Government Shutdown? Venezuela Deal (August 31, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Government Shutdown? Venezuela Deal (August 31, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 2: Podcasts.
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  Speaker 3: Radio.
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  Speaker 2: News.
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  Speaker 1: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance
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  Speaker 1: of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence
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  Speaker 1: Senior Policy Analyst and friend of the show Nathan Dean
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  Speaker 1: shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capitals.
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  Speaker 1: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from
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  Speaker 1: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's
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  Speaker 1: Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning and good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the Washington
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  Speaker 3: Policy Pulse. My name is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior
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  Speaker 3: policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. I want to say thank
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  Speaker 3: you to those of you who are listening to us
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  Speaker 3: via the Balance of Power podcast. We always appreciate listening.
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  Speaker 3: Today is August 31st, the last day of August. It's
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  Speaker 3: 10.01 a.m. The House is back. August recess is over,
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  Speaker 3: at least for the House. And they have one thing
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  Speaker 3: to do before they decide to try and say we're
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  Speaker 3: done for the rest of at least for the for
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  Speaker 3: the midterms. And that is to try and get a
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  Speaker 3: continuing resolution passed. So just in terms of the House
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  Speaker 3: calendar is they are scheduled to be here this week.
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  Speaker 3: Then they have a 10 other 10 day recess for
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  Speaker 3: Rosh Hashanah and a couple of the other holidays. But
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  Speaker 3: if you ask the folks over the House Republicans, their
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  Speaker 3: goal this week is to get the government resolution passed,
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  Speaker 3: the continuing resolution passed today. It keeps the government funded
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  Speaker 3: until December 11th. They get this done Tuesday night. Hopefully
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  Speaker 3: they have a hearing on Wednesday or Thursday, and then
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  Speaker 3: they wash their hands and they say, right, we're out.
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  Speaker 3: And they don't come back until after the election. The
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  Speaker 3: reason being is for all 435 members of the House,
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  Speaker 3: every day they spend here in Washington is another day
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  Speaker 3: that somebody back home is campaigning against them. And the
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  Speaker 3: idea here is that there's really not much on the
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  Speaker 3: legislative calendar for the House to do. Now, this continuing resolution,
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  Speaker 3: it keeps the government open through December 11th. The Senate
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  Speaker 3: has already passed it. It's now House's turn. House is
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  Speaker 3: going to try and do this tomorrow night. They're going
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  Speaker 3: to try and do this under suspension of the rules,
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  Speaker 3: meaning you need a two-thirds majority. There is still a
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  Speaker 3: little bit of a hiccup related to something called the
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  Speaker 3: hemp loophole. If you're in the marijuana space, it's... It's
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  Speaker 3: certainly a big deal. Right now, there's a delay for
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  Speaker 3: this loophole. It delays it until December. I honestly think
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  Speaker 3: they'll just say, great, let's fight this in December because, look,
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  Speaker 3: neither party wants a shutdown before the elections. And you
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  Speaker 3: certainly don't want to have a shutdown occurring when you
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  Speaker 3: can kick the can into a lame duck period. So
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  Speaker 3: I think all said and then and done. The House
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  Speaker 3: will pass this tomorrow. And then they'll say, great, we're done.
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  Speaker 2: There are a couple of.
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  Speaker 3: Other things that they are looking at not doing, just
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  Speaker 3: to keep in mind. There's this Russian sanctions bill. Now,
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  Speaker 3: if you've attended our calls in the past, you know
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  Speaker 3: that we've talked about the Senate passage of this bill.
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  Speaker 3: This would give President Trump the ability to levy up
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  Speaker 3: to 100% tariffs on countries that do business with Russia.
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  Speaker 2: Namely India, China, Turkey. But it's not tariffs.
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  Speaker 3: It's a tool for President Trump to give tariffs. Now,
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  Speaker 3: this bill passed the Senate already actually had 90 votes
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  Speaker 3: in the Senate, overwhelmingly bipartisan, because the idea here is
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  Speaker 3: that a future Democrat president would also have the ability
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  Speaker 3: to do this.
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  Speaker 2: But there is some hesitation amongst.
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  Speaker 3: The Democratic House side about this idea of giving President
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  Speaker 3: Trump more powers. Long story short is I don't think
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  Speaker 3: they're going to deal with it now. They're going to
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  Speaker 3: try and figure it out in the lame duck session
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  Speaker 3: and see what actually happens there. There are a couple
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  Speaker 3: of House hearings this week, none of which are worthwhile,
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  Speaker 3: I think, of really pointing out, except... The House Oversight
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  Speaker 3: Committee is going to have a Jeffrey Epstein hearing that
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  Speaker 3: involves Leon Black. It's scheduled for Thursday. I'm not sure
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  Speaker 3: if Mr. Black is going to attend or not, but
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  Speaker 3: you may see some headlines. But we're not covering it.
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  Speaker 3: It's Epstein-related.
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  Speaker 2: But since it involves Apollo Global Management's co-founder, I just
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  Speaker 2: wanted to highlight it.
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  Speaker 3: Something that is going to be taking place at the
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  Speaker 3: staffer level this week is negotiations over the National Defense
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  Speaker 3: Authorization Act. Now, I've talked about this in the past,
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  Speaker 3: about the NDAA, the importance of it. Obviously, when it
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  Speaker 3: comes to government funding and expenditures, it's really key for
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  Speaker 3: the defense industry. Negotiations are taking place. The House has
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  Speaker 3: passed a bill. The Senate has passed a bill. They're
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  Speaker 3: not the same bill, but the negotiators are coming back together.
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  Speaker 3: So I think what will happen here is that they'll
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  Speaker 3: essentially agree on language. Now that the government funding has
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  Speaker 3: been extended to December 11th, they'll come back in the
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  Speaker 3: lame duck and they'll get it done. So if you're
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  Speaker 3: trying to model out the NDAA from a defense spending perspective,
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  Speaker 3: You know, I think you're just going to have to
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  Speaker 3: see somewhere where they fall between the two, but you'll
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  Speaker 3: get a deal probably after.
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  Speaker 2: The election and then it'll go forward and then you'll
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  Speaker 2: be good for the rest of the year.
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  Speaker 3: Still no word on that provision, though, that would require
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  Speaker 3: any Defense Department contractor to get permission from the DOD
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  Speaker 3: in terms of buybacks or dividends.
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  Speaker 2: That's in the Senate bill. It's not in the House bill.
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  Speaker 3: Remember, I think I've said in the past that my
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  Speaker 3: reading of that is fairly broad, and that if you're
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  Speaker 3: a company like Bank of America and you have an
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  Speaker 3: ATM on a branch, or if you see Dexo and
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  Speaker 3: you're providing ketchup packets, you could be covered by this
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  Speaker 3: as well. I know that the Senate is aware of this,
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  Speaker 3: so I presume.
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  Speaker 2: That they're looking at this. But again, I'll keep you
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  Speaker 2: in line on that.
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  Speaker 3: Just a couple of other things just to keep on
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  Speaker 3: your radar. Nothing really That crazy or that material, right,
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  Speaker 3: is on Friday, President Trump signed an executive order opening
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  Speaker 3: up and allowing farmers and ranchers to do their own
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  Speaker 3: food processing. Now, our analyst, Jen Partashas, is looking at this.
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  Speaker 3: The feedback from the cattle industry was actually not that positive.
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  Speaker 3: The National Cattlemen and Beefs Association said, spoke out against
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  Speaker 3: this and essentially said, look, if you want to lower
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  Speaker 3: beef prices, don't allow foreign folks to come in. Don't
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  Speaker 3: allow this food processing, but allow people to grow their herds.
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  Speaker 3: This is very impactful to Tysons if you were to
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  Speaker 3: see structurally changes over the long run. But this is
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  Speaker 3: the problem is because, look, it's great to say you
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  Speaker 3: can do your own food processing, but there are certain standards.
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  Speaker 2: There's health standards. You need to have a plant.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, look, it's not like you can just go
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  Speaker 3: out there and say, look, I'm going to dramatically change
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  Speaker 3: the price of beef. by saying that a rancher that
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  Speaker 3: has his own farm but no facility is going to
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  Speaker 3: be able to say, OK, I'm going to change it.
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  Speaker 3: So it's symbolically, I think it's something that they keep
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  Speaker 3: in mind. But long story short is that it would
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  Speaker 3: take a long lead time for that to have any
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  Speaker 3: actual impact. And the same thing can be said about
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  Speaker 3: the Venezuela deal. So let's talk about the Venezuela deal
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  Speaker 3: for a minute. So Friday night, President Trump announced that
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  Speaker 3: there was a deal in place for the United States
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  Speaker 3: to take an ownership stake in certain Venezuelan oil refineries. Now,
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  Speaker 3: we actually had a couple of emails about this over
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  Speaker 3: the weekend. Vince Piazza, our energy analyst, and Justin Teresi,
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  Speaker 3: our policy analyst. put out a note actually yesterday morning.
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  Speaker 3: And the crux to that note is essentially is there
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  Speaker 3: are going to be litigation challenges to this. Still early,
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  Speaker 3: too early to tell what the impact of those litigation
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  Speaker 3: challenges are going to be because of we haven't seen
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  Speaker 3: the actual details yet. But also from a political standpoint,
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be very difficult for these companies to say, OK,
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  Speaker 3: the United States now has ownership of or part ownership
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  Speaker 3: of these fields. But that only essentially goes through January 20th, 2029,
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  Speaker 3: because the next Democrat, the next president, I was going
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  Speaker 3: to say the next Democrat president, but I don't want
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  Speaker 3: to presume it's just Democrat. Let's just say it's a Democrat. Well,
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  Speaker 3: it's Democrat comes in in 2029 and says, look. I
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  Speaker 3: don't want to actually have that type of exposure to Venezuela.
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  Speaker 3: Maybe the Venezuela situation has changed. And for these oil
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  Speaker 3: companies that have had nationalization.
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  Speaker 2: In the past, it's going to be a very tough sell.
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  Speaker 3: Now, Vince's note essentially said that if you're Chevron and
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  Speaker 3: you already have exposure to Venezuela, you're going to go
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  Speaker 3: in on this. If you're ConocoPhillips or if you're ExxonMobil,
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  Speaker 3: you're going to be a little bit hesitant. Now, the
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  Speaker 3: reason why I'm bringing it up is there is a
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  Speaker 3: meeting tomorrow at the White House with the oil refiners,
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  Speaker 3: the executives there. And you may see that the official
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  Speaker 3: agenda for this meeting is domestic supply chain. But look,
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  Speaker 3: I think you're going to see Venezuela coming to this.
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  Speaker 3: And so from a headline perspective, just keep this in
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  Speaker 3: mind that some of the executives are going to be
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  Speaker 3: meeting at the White House tomorrow. You may get some
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  Speaker 3: questions on this. You may see statements saying, you know,
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  Speaker 3: President Trump, we support you and we are going to
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  Speaker 3: conduct these analyses and so forth. But at the end
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  Speaker 3: of the day, You're not going to put in billions
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  Speaker 3: and billions of dollars of effort if you don't get
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  Speaker 3: physical or financial security guarantees beyond January 20th, 2029. And
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  Speaker 3: that's not something that President Trump can do at the moment.
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  Speaker 3: You'd have to codify it through Congress. So, you know,
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  Speaker 3: it's interesting, like there's been a lot of. lot more,
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  Speaker 3: as we get past the midterms, and you're going to
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  Speaker 3: see additional, this is one of our big themes for 2027,
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  Speaker 3: is you're going to see a lot more ways of
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  Speaker 3: government pressure via letters, via statements, via congressional investigations.
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  Speaker 2: And it's always coming back as headline risk.
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  Speaker 3: And we have this debate all the time of what
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  Speaker 3: is the actual level of headline risk that comes from
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  Speaker 3: something like where a Google, for example, changed Lake Ontario
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  Speaker 3: to Lake America, and several members of the House of
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  Speaker 3: Representatives on the Democratic side said, great, we're going to
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  Speaker 3: investigate Google next year before this change.
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  Speaker 2: So what is the headline risk?
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  Speaker 3: Well, our view is that the headline risk comes in
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  Speaker 3: the form of what does the CEO have to do
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  Speaker 3: to respond? Perfect example is Wells Fargo from about eight
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  Speaker 3: or nine years ago. There was actually a hearing where
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  Speaker 3: the former CEO, not Charles Schwartz, but the former CEO testified.
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  Speaker 3: It was a very poor hearing, very poor hearing. The
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  Speaker 3: CEO was not prepared. It just went very bad. And
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  Speaker 3: you did see the stock price move down 3% to 5%
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  Speaker 3: as a result. And ultimately, I think, Or more like
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  Speaker 3: partly led to a changing of the guard over at
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  Speaker 3: Wells Fargo. So there is some truth to what these
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  Speaker 3: congressional investigations.
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  Speaker 2: Can take place. So anyway, I'll stop there. But that's
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  Speaker 2: why we're going to just continue to see more and
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  Speaker 2: more of that going forward. The G20 is meeting in Asheville.
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  Speaker 3: No word if they're going to go to Wicked Wheat Brewing,
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  Speaker 3: which is my favorite brewer down in the Asheville area.
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  Speaker 3: But Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is going to give remarks tomorrow.
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  Speaker 3: So you could see some headlines coming out of the
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  Speaker 3: meetings today, but tomorrow is when the press conference with
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  Speaker 3: Treasury Secretary Scott Besant will take place. I think it's
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  Speaker 3: going to be around 5 p.m. Eastern, so keep that
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  Speaker 3: in mind.
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  Speaker 2: Finally, just In terms of the House-Senate races, we didn't
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  Speaker 2: really see any changes over the weekend.
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  Speaker 3: And then the last thing is my colleague, Elliot Stein,
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  Speaker 3: would like you all to know that we are anticipating
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  Speaker 3: Lisa Cook's firing or President Trump attempting to fire Lisa
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  Speaker 3: Cook sometime in the next few weeks or days. So
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  Speaker 3: just keep in mind on that headline. Elliot already has
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  Speaker 3: his note out there. I can send it to you,
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  Speaker 3: or please feel free to reach out to him directly.
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  Speaker 3: Talking about how Lisa Cook probably has decent odds to
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  Speaker 3: stave that off, but you are going to probably see
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  Speaker 3: that headline come back into the news cycle sometime soon.
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  Speaker 3: So with that, I'm going to say thank you very
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  Speaker 3: much for attending. We always appreciate it. Next week, we
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  Speaker 3: will not be having this call because it's the Labor
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  Speaker 3: Day holiday here in the United States. So we'll see
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  Speaker 3: you again in two weeks. Actually, I'm going to be
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  Speaker 3: out of town, but I'll figure that out. I want
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  Speaker 3: to say thank you very much for attending. We really
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  Speaker 3: appreciate it. If we can ever be of assistance, please
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  Speaker 3: don't hesitate to ask. Great.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst,
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  Speaker 1: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.
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  Speaker 1: For more from BI or to join this call live
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  Speaker 1: each week, you can email Nathan at ndean at bloomberg.net.
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  Speaker 1: That's N-D-E-A-N at bloomberg.net. Come back to the podcast later
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  Speaker 1: today for the latest edition of Balance of Power.