Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Michael Saylor Reveals the TRUTH About the Bitcoin Treasury BEAR Market | EP 1416

Transcript

Michael Saylor Reveals the TRUTH About the Bitcoin Treasury BEAR Market | EP 1416 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Michael Saylor just revealed how he really feels about the
0:04
Bitcoin treasury bear market and I've never seen him this
0:08
defensive before when answering the question, are there too many
0:12
Bitcoin companies or Bitcoin treasury companies?
0:14
Will the Bitcoin treasury companies ever recover?
0:17
Should you be buying these stocks?
0:19
Is the bear market finally getting to him or is he making a
0:23
valid point? Anyways, let's play the clip for
0:26
you guys and I will break it down.
0:30
But I guess the question more is though, do you think the market
0:32
can sustain this many treasury companies because we see
0:35
especially the smaller ones, almost all of them are now
0:37
trading at like a significant discount to them I.
0:39
Think you're just missing the point.
0:42
You're like like the Bitcoin community tends to eat its young
0:46
like they would rather criticize a company that buys Bitcoin than
0:50
criticize a company that doesn't buy Bitcoin.
0:53
Why don't you focus upon criticizing the money losing
0:55
companies that don't own Bitcoin?
0:57
Why would you buy them? Why are you?
1:00
Why aren't you criticizing them? No, I agree with that.
1:02
And but it's not that I'm criticizing them.
1:04
It's just that the the shareholders in some of these
1:06
other treasury companies are getting absolutely crushed.
1:09
And like, is there any way that some of these companies ever get
1:12
back to like a one XM NAV? Yeah, I think yeah.
1:16
I just don't, I just don't accept the criticism yet you
1:19
made an investment in a company. Why did you invest in the
1:22
company, Right. My problem with the premise is
1:27
you somehow think that it's okay for 400 million companies to not
1:31
buy Bitcoin and you like that and you're going to criticize
1:33
the companies that the 200 companies that bought Bitcoin.
1:36
And that's the thing, that's your brilliance, the thing that
1:39
how is it brilliant for you to ignore the fact that 400 million
1:42
companies didn't buy Bitcoin and somehow that's OK and you're
1:47
going to criticize the 200 companies that bought?
1:50
That's not the criticism I'm making the the because like if
1:53
if they're. Just criticizing someone that
1:56
that bought an equity at the wrong price.
1:59
Why don't you actually put the focus upon the people that make
2:01
the investment decision? The companies don't determine
2:05
the price their stock trades at. So.
2:09
So my point, my point here is what is your brilliant insight,
2:13
Danny, that people shouldn't buy Bitcoin?
2:14
Is that what you're trying to say?
2:15
No, I think people are buying Bitcoin is cool.
2:17
OK, well, well, if it's OK for Bitcoin, well, what about an
2:20
unemployed person? You want to criticize them for
2:22
buying Bitcoin? Of course not.
2:24
Well, what if you have debt? You want to criticize the person
2:26
with debt for buying Bitcoin? Of course not.
2:28
Well then why are you criticizing a company for buying
2:30
Bitcoin? I I mean, I'm not if it's.
2:32
A good company that buys Bitcoin is better, and if it's a bad
2:35
company that buys Bitcoin is better than it would have been.
2:40
Yeah, OK, OK. If you didn't watch the whole
2:43
interview, it was basically an hour of this.
2:46
You know, I love Danny, Knowles shouts out to him.
2:50
But he kind of got Cook. And again, I don't think I've
2:53
ever seen Sailor this defensive about Bitcoin treasury companies
2:58
or rather even about Bitcoin or strategy ever.
3:01
Yes, we've seen Sailor kind of feel a little animosity during
3:05
the previous bear market. Obviously he was getting a lot
3:08
of heat from the mainstream corporate press, but it's almost
3:13
like he's had his breaking point.
3:15
It's almost like he's just had enough of the criticism and
3:18
especially when you see all the stuff that he's been doing,
3:21
whether you agree with him or not, you could argue, and I
3:25
think it's a very valid case that Saylor has been a positive
3:30
for the Bitcoin space in general.
3:31
He's been the one to kick charge the corporate Bitcoin adoption.
3:35
He's probably also the reason why we got the institutions in
3:39
Bitcoin. You you could argue otherwise,
3:41
but he's been one of the driving forces.
3:44
Now I do on some respect completely agree with sailors
3:50
premise, though. It is very interesting to watch
3:53
the him literally be this defensive kind of crash out on
3:56
Danny over the criticism of people buying Bitcoin treasury
3:59
companies. But I do agree with that.
4:01
That premise of you should be, you should be, you know,
4:04
criticizing the companies that don't buy Bitcoin, which I think
4:07
Bitcoiners do, But also within the Bitcoin space, it's very
4:10
easy to kind of point at point fingers and be like, haha, I
4:13
told you so you shouldn't buy buy this stuff.
4:15
Now personally, I'm not a Bitcoin treasury buyer.
4:19
I don't buy their equities. I I'm just a stacked Bitcoin and
4:22
chill kind of guy. But I think the point does
4:25
remain the same that look, you'd really add someone that buys
4:29
these stocks if you're the company, you don't really
4:33
control where the price is. And I agree with them, I think,
4:38
or I agree with Sailor and even the people that buy the Bitcoin
4:40
treasury companies, like, I think it's a good move for them
4:42
to be buying the Bitcoin. I, I think it's a good move to
4:45
see a 200 companies add Bitcoin to their balance sheet.
4:49
I think this is all a good thing.
4:52
And so I've never really criticized people that buy the,
4:56
the stocks in question. I'm just one of those people
4:59
like, look, you know, I, I see there's a time and a place to
5:03
buy these equities, to buy these stock tickers.
5:06
But personally, I'm, I just know myself.
5:08
I just buy Bitcoin, I chill. So it is very interesting in
5:12
this moment. Why being so defensive?
5:15
Why is he so kind of, you know, pissed off at Danny for asking
5:20
this question? And I think it brings up a lot
5:22
of like it brings up a lot of questions of where we currently
5:25
are in the market. Now, I've had this theory on the
5:29
show and I've been talking about and I actually was talking to
5:32
Luke this morning and I'd be interested to think what you
5:35
guys think on this on in the chat.
5:37
But it does look like if you are looking at what the Bitcoin
5:42
price did last year, obviously we all know it was a negative
5:45
year. It was basically flat for the
5:47
most part. Bitcoin's a stable coin right
5:49
now. But if you look at what happened
5:51
in the Bitcoin treasury companies, it's I think you can
5:56
make a very good case that the bull market, quote UN quote, the
5:59
euphoria, the blow off tops happened in the Bitcoin treasury
6:03
stocks and that probably took away a lot of the FOMO that
6:08
should have happened on Bitcoin the base layer.
6:11
Now I will pull up the charts. I will go through some of these
6:14
charts. Again, this is not to just, you
6:17
know, shit on these companies because I know a lot of people
6:20
that that not only work on these companies, but that were the
6:25
driving force for people to buy these companies.
6:29
And so this is not so much about like giving them shit or adding
6:34
to the criticism of these Bitcoin treasury companies
6:36
'cause you guys know my view. I've said it constantly.
6:39
Look, I think there's a time and a place for Bitcoin treasury
6:41
companies. I am not going to, you know,
6:44
talk smack about people for buying these Bitcoin treasury
6:48
stocks. I, I just always advocate for
6:51
you buying Bitcoin. Take Bitcoin into self custody.
6:55
To me, that's the best move. I think these companies do have
6:58
a place in people's portfolios. I think they do have a place in
7:02
the broader kind of economic portfolio or economic landscape.
7:07
But personally, I just, it's not my Forte.
7:11
As the meme goes, if you don't understand what they're doing,
7:15
then you probably shouldn't be investing in those companies.
7:18
And it took me a while to really understand what was going on,
7:21
though I did Lamb and I, I did complain a little bit last year
7:24
of like, man, I should have just bought MicroStrategy at the
7:27
bottom because it went up like 22 X while Bitcoin barely did
7:30
anything. So, you know, I'm like everyone
7:32
else, I see the price action. I'm like, man, I should have
7:34
bought this, but I'm too late to this.
7:36
So here let me pull up the charts here I do I do have the
7:40
broader Bitcoin chart first and foremost, but we're we're just
7:44
going to start here. Actually, this is on the day.
7:47
Let me let me go to the monthly because maybe it'll make it a
7:50
little little better to see. So you know, you can oops, you
7:55
can argue that I think a lot of the price action was taken away
8:01
from Bitcoin in the Bitcoin treasury companies.
8:04
Now, why do I say that? Well, you can see here, of
8:07
course, we hit all time high in October.
8:09
But what's interesting, when we did make a run for all time high
8:13
in July, it really kind of just topped out and flattened off and
8:17
then we kind of hung out for a little bit, obviously.
8:20
Excuse me? There was a lot of macroeconomic
8:23
factors, whether it was the tariffs, you know, or whether it
8:27
was just Trump tweeting that really didn't let Bitcoin run.
8:30
Or you could argue that that was one of the cases why Bitcoin
8:33
didn't run is because of all of the kind of macro headwinds that
8:36
we face last year. But I did kind of dive into this
8:40
to see if there was maybe some correlation here on the Bitcoin
8:44
treasury highs and where Bitcoin was and whether we didn't
8:47
actually break out of all time high on Bitcoin spot Bitcoin.
8:51
So you can see July is when we kind of we're we're peeking up
8:54
towards the all time high and then we kind of went sideways
8:57
for three months and then we finally got the dump after all
9:00
time high in October. So I am going to go through
9:03
these charts again. Again, this isn't to you know,
9:05
kind of pile on these Bitcoin treasury companies, but I think
9:09
there is something to see in the Bitcoin treasuries where their
9:13
highs were and where they dumped and kind of explain some of the
9:18
price action we saw in Bitcoin. So I'm going to start with
9:20
MicroStrategy. First and foremost, I think
9:23
MicroStrategy is the one that's holding on the strongest, which
9:26
I will show you in a minute, which does kind of add to this
9:29
idea of like how come Sailor was so defensive?
9:32
I think he's just tired of hearing the criticism,
9:35
especially from within the Bitcoin community.
9:37
Now within Bitcoin and on Bitcoin Twitter.
9:40
It is one of those things where Bitcoiners do like to talk a lot
9:45
of smack about Bitcoiners doing things in the space.
9:48
Now, it's been very easy to in hindsight, look back at the
9:52
Bitcoin treasury companies and be like, see, I told you, you
9:55
shouldn't have bought this, you're an idiot.
9:57
You know, these things are vaporware, etcetera, etcetera.
10:00
But I think MicroStrategy with all of the recent products, I
10:03
can't even name them all, there's like Stretch, Strife,
10:05
Strive, you know, MSTRUMSTR itself, I think he's doing a lot
10:13
of products that many people don't understand.
10:16
And so I'm not here to really pinpick or, you know, nitpick
10:20
about what all these products actually do, whether they have a
10:25
place in your portfolio. But MicroStrategy, this is just
10:28
the, you know, the base ticker here, it is holding on the best,
10:32
even though it did kind of have a correction.
10:34
As you can see though, it is starting to rebound.
10:37
So this could be kind of the plateau, the bear market aspect
10:42
of Bitcoin in 2026 or rather 2025 to 2026.
10:46
But again, I, I'm only bringing up these charts so that you can
10:49
see where they all started to crash.
10:52
And does this have any correlation to Bitcoin And try
10:55
to understand why Sailor is crashing out on Danny on what
10:59
Bitcoin did. So you can see here, you know,
11:03
he the the stock in MicroStrategy it it went up to
11:07
all time highs in November, but it really crashed in July of
11:12
last year, mid part of last year.
11:14
And that's when it been on a decline.
11:16
I don't think we've really seen that this many red candles in
11:19
MicroStrategy since it went on Bitcoin.
11:22
But again, keep that date in mind.
11:23
July of 2025 is when it started to dump.
11:27
Now I'm going to go to the other big ones.
11:29
I'm not going to cover all 200. I'm just going to cover kind of
11:31
the big names that you guys are all aware of and there is kind
11:35
of this time window, this time frame where they all start to
11:39
crash at the exact same time. Now you could argue that it was
11:42
probably the macro factors, you know, whether it was the tariffs
11:45
'cause I believe the tariffs were launched around April of
11:48
last year, at least the initial kind of tariff bluff and they
11:52
all kind of align in that kind of two, three month window where
11:57
they all start to crash. So now we're going to go to
11:59
Metaplanet and look, this looks like a literal a, a picture
12:05
perfect example of and I, I don't want to call it a shit
12:08
coin stock, but of a, you know, a blow off pump and dump type
12:13
scenario, something we've seen in Bitcoin happen a lot where it
12:17
goes up and then it comes back down until it finds a, a bear
12:21
market. So here again, you could see
12:24
we'll we'll say June, July is when Metaplanet start to dump,
12:29
which again, Sailor MicroStrategy dumped in July
12:33
2025. This really got naked in July.
12:36
So, you know, June hit all time high.
12:38
It starts dropping in July. Now these other ones they did
12:43
kind of pump before, but it's still right around that time
12:48
frame. Here's Nakamoto or kindly again,
12:51
you know, got released, did a huge parabolic run in May, which
12:55
I think was part of that exuberance in Bitcoin treasury
12:58
companies, and then starts nuking in June, again, June,
13:02
July. This seems to be the day that
13:05
most of these treasury companies got nuked and haven't really
13:08
recovered since, though you can see they are starting to form
13:11
bottoms. They are starting to get a
13:12
little positive here. Again, this is the monthly
13:14
chart. Now we'll go to 21 Capital and
13:18
again, it had its initial launch, it pumped in April, May,
13:23
it starts dumping June or July, it really starts getting new.
13:28
So again, that time frame in June of July of last year is
13:34
when the treasury companies really got hit.
13:36
It's been 6 months May, you could argue close to seven
13:39
months of these treasury companies just in, in constant
13:42
decline. Now is this the bear market that
13:45
we should be expecting in Bitcoin?
13:48
I think is the bigger question in my mind personally, since I'm
13:51
not a Bitcoin treasury stock buyer.
13:54
But again, why are we getting this interview now?
13:58
And I think that's part of the bigger question, are we all in
14:02
bear market sentiment right now? Are we bottoming out right now
14:05
in Bitcoin here? Actually, I'll, I'll pull up the
14:07
Bitcoin price again. And I'm using the, the crypto
14:10
ticker here on on trading view because I'm pretty sure it's a
14:14
culmination of all the Bitcoin on exchanges in the price.
14:19
But again, it's all kind of wrapping around the same time
14:23
frame around that, you know, April to July time frame is when
14:30
these treasury companies started to have a little trouble in
14:33
their price. Not saying there's a necessary
14:35
fundamental flaw in these Bitcoin treasury companies, but
14:38
it is very interesting that they all crash around the same exact
14:42
time. Now, you could, you could point
14:44
out probably a lot of different factors for why this happened.
14:48
I would argue, and this is kind of my contention right now, is
14:51
that the bear market in Bitcoin happened in the Bitcoin treasury
14:55
companies. As I've been talking about this
14:58
on the show, I've been kind of pointing to different factors,
15:01
but it's becoming very clear that there's always kind of a
15:04
new hype cycle in Bitcoin. If you've been around for a
15:07
while, there's always something that pumps really hard.
15:10
And this goes into my kind of broader generalization that I, I
15:14
don't think the altcoins are going to recover like they used
15:17
to. Maybe it's certain all coins
15:18
will recover, but we've seen the capital, the attention, the
15:21
narrative flow into different Bitcoin derivatives for a lack
15:26
of better term. But again, that July time frame
15:30
is when these Bitcoin treasury companies started to slump.
15:33
And this is when Bitcoin started to make a run towards a new all
15:37
time high. And we could argue, or rather
15:40
I'm going to make the argument that I think a lot of the FOMO,
15:43
a lot of the, you know, the, the euphoria, it happened in the
15:48
Bitcoin treasury companies. And that's why we saw them kind
15:52
of blow up in July where they took a lot of the attention away
15:56
from Bitcoin spot price. And now those, those stocks
16:00
haven't recovered yet. And I think the bigger question
16:02
for a lot of people that are probably holding these are will
16:05
they ever recover? And again, I love Danny Super.
16:09
Cool dude. But I was talking with Luke this
16:11
morning, and I don't mean to throw Luke under the bus here,
16:14
but he was like, yeah, it seems like maybe Danny was a Bitcoin
16:18
treasury stock buyer and he's just deep down on his bags and
16:22
wondering if he's ever going to recover.
16:24
I think that's where a lot of the sentiment is coming from is
16:28
people seeing this huge decline and wondering, is this still a
16:32
good hold? Is this going to recover to all
16:34
time highs? Did I make a bad, bad buy in
16:38
these Bitcoin treasury companies and am I holding bags for the
16:41
next 1020 years or rather forever?
16:44
Should I harvest my loss, my losses here because they might
16:47
not ever recover. That is the big question right
16:50
now. Will these Bitcoin treasury
16:51
companies ever recover? Now, I think strategy, I think
16:56
I've said this on the show before as well, I think strategy
17:00
is the one like, and I don't want to say guaranteed, but I
17:03
think it's the one stock that we all know will recover.
17:07
The other ones, I think there's a lot more doubt on whether they
17:11
will recover. I know they're doing things to
17:13
separate themselves from strategy, but it's becoming very
17:16
clear to me that strategy is the number one horse in the race.
17:19
They they're the big dogs here obviously not just because of
17:22
their Bitcoin holdings, but I think because of all of their
17:25
different products and tapping into all of these different
17:28
capital markets, which really differentiates them from
17:31
everything else. So do I think these Bitcoin
17:34
treasury companies will recover I'm I'm not so bullish on all
17:42
the other Bitcoin treasury company.
17:43
I think strategy will most definitely recover, but
17:48
everything else has is a bigger question mark in my mind now to
17:51
kind of answer, obviously, who am I to answer questions for
17:55
sailor? But I think he made a great
17:58
point. Do these Bitcoin treasury
18:01
companies even deserve to exist? Should we be getting mad at
18:05
these Bitcoin treasures? Should you be getting mad at the
18:07
stock prices? Why do we even care if people
18:10
buy these Bitcoin treasury company stocks?
18:13
You know, are we really sitting here in Bitcoin right now have
18:16
nothing else to talk about and we're just like, ha ha, you guys
18:19
are down 70%. You guys should have never
18:21
bought the stock in the 1st place, which I think a lot of
18:23
Bitcoiners do. A lot of Bitcoiners do like to
18:26
glow about the idea of, hey, OK, I told you you shouldn't have
18:30
bought that. You should have just bought
18:31
Bitcoin. Now I think that there will be a
18:35
lot of Bitcoin treasury companies, though I'm kind of on
18:38
the. The the.
18:39
View that maybe a lot of these Bitcoin treasury companies were
18:43
a little too early. I think Sailor and MicroStrategy
18:46
were here on time at the right time and everyone else did kind
18:51
of get caught up in the hype cycle.
18:52
If you remember anything from last year, we all know the
18:56
Bitcoin treasury stock mania was the hype cycle.
19:00
Now, I'm making the case a little more that it does seem
19:03
like the Bitcoin treasury mania took away a little bit from the
19:08
Bitcoin price action that we all expected.
19:11
Now, does that mean that Bitcoin being a stable coin this last
19:15
year is necessarily a bad thing? I would just say it's extremely
19:17
boring. It does need to go up to
19:20
maintain, you know, a relative price to inflation.
19:24
But if the action comes back to Bitcoin and away from Treasury
19:28
companies, then I think that's good for every single one of us.
19:32
Wait. This is This is a good.
19:33
This is a good. Good comment.
19:36
I don't understand Bitcoin treasury companies business
19:38
model. I dude, that's why I don't
19:40
invest in them. That's I, you know, Full
19:42
disclosure, that's exactly why I didn't invest in them, though
19:46
the I forget which one it is, the stretch STRCI still don't
19:52
understand it, but that's the that's probably the most
19:55
interesting micro strategy product recently.
19:59
I again, I don't understand it. So I haven't done enough
20:02
research to really wrap my head around whether it's a good buy
20:05
or not, but it is interesting to kind of see why is he crashing
20:12
out right now? And part of me is just thinking
20:15
it's like the bear. It's just like peak bear market.
20:18
At least that's kind of my view right now.
20:20
Even though obviously Bitcoin can go down lower.
20:23
We're still not out of the woods in the Bitcoin spot price.
20:25
But it is making you wonder, is Sailor feeling that bear market
20:30
pressure right now? And is this the bottom of the
20:32
bear market? Cause usually when you see
20:35
people crash out over Bitcoin at this point, Bitcoin treasury
20:38
stocks, that's usually a good indicator that OK, we have
20:41
bottomed out and I don't know if you guys have been kind of
20:44
following along. I'm guessing you guys have been
20:46
following along but the Bitcoin sentiment right now I think is
20:51
the worst it's ever been and we're at what, like 90K?
20:55
So the, the connection with the sentiment around Bitcoin and
21:01
where the price is, I think are completely mismatched.
21:04
If you talked about Bitcoin 4-5 years ago and, and you said or
21:09
asked me like, yo, would you believe that we're all crashing
21:13
out over Bitcoin price AT90K, you'd be like, yeah, lol dude
21:18
that's hilarious. Obviously Bitcoiners are going
21:21
to Bitcoin like that's just what we do.
21:24
We crash out over stupid things all the time.
21:26
But it's holding up very strong. Look, we're still going
21:31
sideways. My kind of bull market thesis is
21:34
still in play. The 50 day moving average is
21:36
holding up very good on Bitcoin. If you're looking at all the
21:40
stuff that's going on in the world right now and you're
21:43
looking at the Bitcoin price, you're like, man, this is a
21:46
great buy. Like this is a perfect buy.
21:48
I mean, I'm going to cover the whole Jerome Powell thing in the
21:52
news today. But based on just that alone,
21:56
and if you're not aware with it, I'll break it.
21:57
I'll break down what what it is in about 1020 minutes.
22:02
Just with that news alone, you would think that Bitcoin tanked.
22:06
It held up very strong. We, we no longer got the 10 AM
22:10
dump. We actually got a 10 AM pump
22:11
this morning. So the, the price action, the
22:15
sentiment around the price action, I think are completely
22:18
mismatched Bitcoins holding up very good on the 50 day moving
22:21
average, the 50 week moving average, you know, the day to
22:25
week chart, not not the same type of sentiment.
22:29
It looks like we're getting a reversal on the daily, the
22:32
weekly, it doesn't look as strong.
22:35
I'm not going to lie, it's not looking as good, but you're
22:38
starting to see that it feels like a bear market right now.
22:42
We're only down what, 27% right now, But the sentiment around
22:47
Bitcoin is really bear markety It it really feels like a bear
22:51
market right now. Everyone's crashing out, you
22:53
know, sailors crashing out on Danny Knowles podcast, What
22:56
Bitcoin did. It was an hour of them literally
23:00
like kind of, you know, slinging shit at each other about Bitcoin
23:03
treasuries, whether you should buy it, whether you should be
23:05
freaking out or not. And it just feels like this is
23:09
peak bear market stuff, even though it the price isn't really
23:13
at bear market prices. It's not 70 percent, 80%
23:16
corrections. It's been a what, 30% correction
23:19
and it's holding up very strong in the face of all the macro
23:22
factors right now. So there is a divergent right
23:26
now between the price and how everyone and feels about it,
23:29
which I think it's, it's on the one hand hilarious And also I'm
23:32
just as bored as everyone else. So like 90K is like, can we get
23:36
some volatility back into the price?
23:38
Because the stablecoin stuff is killing everything.
23:42
It's not only killing friendships, it's killing
23:45
sentiment and engagement. It's just boring us all to
23:49
death. So I think the timing is
23:52
probably the most interesting. I, I do agree with Saylor, as I
23:56
said a minute ago, like I really don't care personally.
24:00
Like I'm not here to tell people what to do with their money.
24:03
I think every company, as he said, 400 million companies plus
24:08
are going to be Bitcoin treasury companies at some point.
24:11
I think it's just good economics.
24:13
It's just good entrepreneurship. It's just good business to add
24:16
Bitcoin to your balance sheet. It's just since it became the
24:19
big hype, there was that hype cycle.
24:22
It's almost likethe.com bubble. Everyone wanted to become a dot,
24:25
you know, an Internet company. We saw the market get completely
24:29
devastated. Some of the companies lasted and
24:32
became the juggernauts that we all use today.
24:36
And I think that same thing is playing out in the Bitcoin
24:38
treasury company space. But I, I'm, I'm still just
24:44
wondering why Sailor is not only going on all the podcasts, I
24:48
think he said everything by now, but why he's crashing out.
24:52
And I, I think it's 'cause he's getting this bear market
24:55
sentiment. I think he's just completely
24:56
annoyed. It's like he's launching all
24:58
these products. He's proving the concept in real
25:01
time. And then yes, he's got a lot of
25:03
copycats and they're not doing so good and his stock is down a
25:08
little bit. And so I, I think it's all this
25:11
kind of playing out in real time, but very interesting to
25:15
watch Sailor. I mean, we've seen him in the
25:17
peak of bear markets, like just shrug it off.
25:22
But now we're in this Bitcoin treasury company bear market and
25:26
he seems extremely annoyed. And maybe that's kind of further
25:29
confirmation that he understands what the Bitcoin treasury thesis
25:35
is, but everyone outside of, you know, the Bitcoin treasury
25:40
ecosystem doesn't understand it. And there has been a lot of
25:43
Bitcoin treasury Shields on Twitter.
25:46
They're kind of coming back out of the woodwork.
25:48
They completely disappeared for a couple of months and now
25:50
they're coming back. They're like, see, This is why
25:52
you need to buy it. So the dynamics are very
25:55
interesting right now on sentiment, not only around
25:58
Bitcoin, but of course, the Bitcoin treasury companies.
26:00
So my point has been the same throughout this whole time.
26:04
Just buy Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, continue to buy Bitcoin,
26:07
continue to store that Bitcoin, take it into self custody.
26:11
I think there is a time and a place for Bitcoin treasury
26:14
companies. Maybe that time to buy the
26:16
Bitcoin treasury stocks has passed.
26:18
Maybe we're starting to enter the space where everyone becomes
26:22
a Bitcoin treasury company. So you have to do something that
26:25
completely differentiates you from something else, which is
26:28
essentially be a profitable business and add Bitcoin to your
26:31
balance sheet, not necessarily just taking out a bunch of debt
26:35
so that you can buy more Bitcoin and then rolling this over and
26:38
and perpetuating this like flywheel or this perpetual
26:41
motion machine. So I think this is where the
26:44
rubber start to meet the road. The pressure is starting to get
26:47
on these Bitcoin treasury companies because from my
26:49
vantage point, at least in the, in the current moment, it does
26:53
look like a lot of these Bitcoin treasury companies were a bad
26:56
buy, though six months ago we we were saying the opposite.
27:00
We're like we should have all bought Bitcoin treasury company.
27:04
So it does make me think that the bear market or sorry, the
27:07
bull market, the euphoria, the FOMO, the blow off tops that
27:11
happened in the Bitcoin treasury space.
27:14
And it does kind of remind you with IC OS and you know, all
27:18
coins and shit coins and all that stuff.
27:20
We've seen this play out in real time in multiple different areas
27:23
around the crypto ecosystem. But now we're seeing it in the
27:27
Bitcoin treasury companies, which I think is putting a lot
27:29
of pressure on the Bitcoin treasury thesis in general.
27:33
And this is probably why we're seeing Sailor crash out right
27:36
now. So that would be my kind of take
27:39
on this. But dude, I don't know if you
27:44
need to watch the whole interview, but they they
27:47
basically were just like arguing the whole time and and we've
27:50
never seen sailing like this. And honestly, I feel a little
27:53
bad for our boy Danny over there.
27:55
He was just getting cooked dude. Like I don't know what happened
27:59
after this, but I'm guessing it wasn't a too too friendly exit
28:03
here. I I'm guessing they weren't on
28:05
the best terms when it left. So like Danny, I feel you man, I
28:11
feel your pain. It's not easy doing content.
28:13
It's not easy interviewing sailor at his house no less, and
28:18
then getting a a contentious heated battle.
28:21
But man, interesting times. Yes, You know, right now we're
28:25
still in this interim period where like nothing happened
28:29
towards the holidays. We're just starting the new
28:32
year. There is some interesting stuff
28:34
happening this week, which I'm sure we will cover, but there's
28:38
just not too much going on right now.
28:41
And Danny, sorry, bro, but you're you're you're the story
28:46
today, man. So look, sailor crashing out
28:49
over Bitcoin, treasury companies.
28:52
Absolutely, absolutely insane. Absolutely kind of awesome to
28:57
see. Hey, Sailor's a human after all.
28:59
A lot of his stoicism that we've seen forever.
29:02
I think he, he's finally, finally hitting that wall.
29:05
So I, I'm, I'm here for it. I love to see Sailor crash out.
29:08
I want to see him crash out more, to be honest, not just
29:11
sighing. I want to see him crash out on
29:13
everyone. This is this is where the fun
29:17
happens. But it does bring up a larger
29:19
point of, you know, Wall Street's influence in Bitcoin.
29:24
As I've been saying, I think the real attack on Bitcoin right now
29:27
was not over, you know, core and not it's not over spam.
29:32
What it's where it's really at is Wall Street coming into
29:35
Bitcoin and trying to get Bitcoin from you.
29:38
The real battle right now is self custody, Bitcoin versus
29:41
everything else. And I think that could also be
29:45
part of this whole conversation. Self custody, your Bitcoin,
29:49
store your Bitcoin. Get yourself, you know, if
29:51
you're if you're intimidated, get yourself a bit key.
29:55
My, my, my friend, I got him one and he's like, bro, this is the
30:00
easiest thing I've ever set up. I I love it.
30:03
So you don't have an excuse anymore to not self custody your
30:07
Bitcoin. But my view is the war is Wall
30:10
Street versus self custody Bitcoin or the, as Simon Dixon
30:15
always says, you know, the financial industrial complex
30:17
versus self custody Bitcoin. That I think is where the battle
30:21
is. And I think this probably this
30:24
whole conversation was a little. Bit about that.
30:27
Now as I've been covering, all of the banks now are getting
30:31
into Bitcoin. They all want Bitcoin products.
30:33
They're all positioning themselves.
30:35
And you could argue that these Bitcoin treasury stocks is Wall
30:39
Street products trying to gum into Bitcoin, trying to get your
30:42
Bitcoin. So that's the war, guys.
30:45
Wall Street versus self custody Bitcoin.
30:47
Make sure you're taking custody of your Bitcoin.
30:49
This is how you protect yourself.
30:51
Whether we're going lower or we're going sideways and we're
30:54
going to RIP, we will know very soon.
30:57
But I think this is a good culmination, a good zeitgeist of
31:03
where sentiment is right now. It's probably at the lowest I've
31:07
ever seen it, and it's not even a peak bear market, which is
31:11
very interesting to see. Are we starting to see the
31:14
capitulations? We need to go higher.
31:17
I really hope so. I'm I really, really hope so.
31:20
I really hope that Sailor crashing out is the peak bear
31:24
market sentiment. We need to go higher, so I'll
31:29
keep covering this for you guys for a while.
31:31
I think this is super interesting.
31:33
And he works for Peter Schiff now, bro.
31:35
Nah, don't don't do Danny like that, bro.
31:39
Come on, don't do Danny like that.
31:41
Danny's cool. But yeah, man, it it's super
31:44
interesting. Anyways, I'm going to keep it
31:46
moving. So we got this clip surrounding
31:49
Fidelity saying the S word. I don't know if we want to say
31:54
it, but it is an interesting clip.
31:57
And then in the news, I'm going to cover the whole Jay Powell
32:01
stuff going on, which I think is really kind of giving us an idea
32:06
of where the macro traditional financial markets are currently.
32:09
And then in the culture to wrap up, we got an interesting tweet
32:14
blast over the weekend from Nikita Beer, who is the head
32:19
Twitter dev, and it's talking about Bitcoin Twitter or crypto
32:25
Twitter at large. And it really, really kicked the
32:28
hornet's nest over the weekend and people are still talking
32:30
about it. So that's the layout for today's
32:32
show. On that note, quick commercial
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break and I'll be right back. Today's episode is brought to
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Alrighty then guys, we are back. The current Bitcoin price is
34:52
$91,700, the discount from all time high is currently 27.3%.
34:59
The market cap is 1.83 trillion and the block height.
35:03
The only time that matters on planet earth is the block
35:05
height. TikTok next block is currently
35:07
at 932,000 and 10 I repeat 932010.
35:13
So this was making the rounds and my first knee jerk reaction
35:21
is we're going lower whenever we say super cycle guys usually in
35:28
bull market euphoria. Now in that statement in itself,
35:33
what I just said could really explain where we are.
35:38
We're we're starting to say super cycle in what potentially
35:41
is the bear market. So it's completely different
35:44
than when we usually do it. Usually when we start saying
35:47
super cycle or as I said earlier, the S word is when
35:50
you're caught up in the bull market euphoria.
35:52
But here we are in what's potentially the worst Bitcoin
35:57
sentiment I've seen in years in what potentially is the bear
36:01
market. And everyone is looking at all
36:04
the institutional demand and being like, man, are we we
36:07
really going into a super cycle? Or put another way, you know, a
36:11
decade long commodities bull market, which we've seen happen
36:15
before. So it it is there is a little
36:19
nuance to this, but hey, anytime I can come on here and be as.
36:24
Bullish as possible. You already know I'm going to do
36:26
that, so. Let's play this little.
36:27
Clip And then I'll kind of talk about it a little bit.
36:30
Traditionally what we've seen is Bitcoin has has had this four
36:34
year cycle and that four year cycle has been highly correlated
36:38
to bitcoins halving events. So in 2016 if you go 10 years
36:41
ago in 2016 you had a halving 17 months after you had peak price
36:47
of Bitcoin in December 2017 when it hit around 20,000.
36:51
Similarly, in 2020, you had another halving event and then
36:55
18 months after in, in, you know, in 2021, you had another
37:00
peak price for Bitcoin, right? So some might say that you had
37:03
the last having in April 2024. So maybe we are past that peak
37:08
price. But again, on the other side,
37:10
you're also seeing a lot of arguments around how we might
37:15
have entered into a super cycle as opposed to what we have seen
37:18
in the past or four years. And what a super cycle really
37:21
means is you might have more prolonged highs, longer highs
37:25
and shallower dips. And I want to give a shout out
37:27
to Fidelity Digital Assets research team, which talks about
37:30
the Super cycle mechanism. And, and we might see something
37:33
similar that we have seen in the commodities market in the 2000s.
37:37
And that's dictated by three big factors.
37:41
One is you're seeing this steady buy in buy institutions focused
37:46
on Etps in the domestic market, especially in the US, you're
37:50
seeing pro crypto policies. And then the third, which I'm
37:54
really excited to talk about, is we're also seeing how the crypto
37:57
market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500
38:01
and precious metals. So that's great.
38:04
So there's been a lot of talk recently.
38:07
I've been a part of it, me and Nico have debated about it, but
38:10
as you can see Arkham here, they posted a a thread about or
38:13
rather an article about this of the four year cycle.
38:17
The short of it is basically we don't know, but there are some
38:20
things that you can look for to kind of verify whether the four
38:25
year cycle is over. And I'll just read those very
38:27
quickly here again on Arkham Bitcoin four year cycles, why
38:30
they happen and are they dead? You've heard most of this stuff.
38:33
They explain what the four year cycle is.
38:35
They examine the, you know, 2017 or 2013, 20/17/2021 and the
38:41
current kind of phase that we are in.
38:44
Again, they don't make any definitive claims in this
38:48
article, but they do give us kind of an idea of what to look
38:53
for rather maybe what they're looking for and here they are.
38:57
How will we know that the cycles are over?
38:59
So paying attention to how the current cycle plays out will
39:01
give us obviously a much better idea on whether for your cycles
39:05
are a thing or whether they never happened, you know.
39:08
So here are the key signs. It is.
39:10
Previous cycles have seen a blow off top post having typically 12
39:14
to 18 months after. Arguably we didn't see a blow
39:19
off top, though at the same token, we did see the Bitcoin
39:24
price hit all time high at pretty much the exact time that
39:27
we all thought it would. Previous cycles have ended with
39:30
massive leverage wipeouts and cascading liquidations causing
39:33
drawdowns of over 70%. Again, kind of right, kind of
39:39
not exactly at what we've seen. We've seen massive leverage
39:42
wipeouts in the last couple of weeks.
39:45
We've seen cascading liquidations, notoriously the
39:48
October 10th, 1:00. And then it seems like every
39:51
week since we've seen a lot of leverage be wiped out.
39:55
The traders are just getting absolutely wrecked, though we
39:58
haven't seen at least as of yet, a draw down of over 70%.
40:03
And then if the price of Bitcoin begins to track perfectly to
40:05
changes in global liquidity, then Bitcoin has become a macro
40:09
asset and not a halving base cycle asset.
40:12
To me this is the most. Interesting point here which you
40:17
could argue, or rather I have been arguing that this is
40:21
probably the case for Bitcoin currently.
40:25
And my view of this is very simple.
40:28
As we saw in 2025, Bitcoin finally entered the mainstream
40:34
consciousness. Bitcoin finally got the
40:37
institutional stamp of approval. We finally got to a point where,
40:42
you know, Bitcoin got a $2 trillion market cap and was
40:45
holding it very strong. And once it gets to trillions of
40:48
dollars of market cap, it's not, we've never seen history,
40:51
anything go to 0 after that. And so to me, this is probably
40:56
the most interesting kind of thing that I'm watching right
41:00
now is again, Bitcoin just had its 17th birthday.
41:04
Bitcoin is being embraced by institutions, it's being
41:07
embraced by nation states, it's being embraced by sovereign
41:09
wealth funds. And we are all seeing that
41:14
Bitcoin has, for better or worse, been trading pretty close
41:19
to the S&P 500 or other macro assets.
41:22
It's just kind of considered like a high beta, or rather.
41:25
A more risky. Macro asset currently, but until
41:30
we see it kind of break that pattern, it does show us two
41:34
things, I think. Well, one, if it breaks it to
41:37
the downside like we've kind of seen, then it's obviously not in
41:41
the mainstream consciousness yet.
41:43
It's not part of everyone's portfolio, though it is
41:45
trickling into Bitcoin. And then two, if we see it break
41:48
to the upside, then it has this kind of similar movement to what
41:54
we saw gold and silver do, which would be a hedge.
41:57
Now the argument against that is it does seem like the hard money
42:00
hedge right now is gold and silver, which isn't really doing
42:04
too good to our narratives. I'll be completely transparent
42:07
on that, but what we have seen since the institution, sovereign
42:12
wealth funds, nation states are getting into Bitcoin, since
42:15
we're seeing Bitcoin for better or worse react to what the Fed's
42:19
decisions are. You are starting to see Bitcoin
42:22
mature. You are starting to see Bitcoin
42:24
enter into the macro asset discussion.
42:27
And I think that's what's going on right now.
42:30
I think Bitcoin is maturing. It's no longer just based on,
42:34
you know, Bitcoin degenerates or crypto degens or the four years
42:38
having cycle because every four years now the amount of Bitcoin
42:43
that gets halved is not as much of the supply as it was in the
42:46
past. Again, we're all fighting for,
42:48
you know, the last couple million coins here to be
42:50
released and that's not going to happen for another 100 years.
42:53
So in my opinion, it does seem like we are in this
42:57
transitionary phase from this kind of recluse dark corner of
43:02
the, of the Internet to a macro asset that's a part of
43:06
everyone's portfolio, whether it's treasury companies, whether
43:09
it's individuals, whether it's being shield by your asset
43:13
managers or being bought by the asset managers.
43:16
It is growing up in real time. It is becoming, you know, I, I,
43:21
I can't say that Bitcoins a man, but you, you know what I'm
43:23
saying? It's becoming a man.
43:24
OK, Bitcoin is growing up as we speak.
43:27
And so to me, that's probably the most interesting highlight
43:31
here. But I read you the last one.
43:34
And then, of course, to wrap it up, previous cycles have seen an
43:36
explosion in retail participation in later stages of
43:39
the cycle, causing the shit coins to go parabolic.
43:43
A lack of retail participation means that a cycle has been
43:45
dominated by institutional buying, which could lead us to
43:48
less volatility and flatten the cycle.
43:50
Now this one minus the shit coin angle is, is very clearly what's
43:55
happening. I've been arguing the only
43:59
people in Bitcoin right now are people that have been in
44:01
Bitcoin. And you can see that across all
44:03
social media sentiment which is going to go into the culture
44:07
talk about Nikita beer. I don't think there's any new
44:11
people in Bitcoin, at least on the spot.
44:14
Bitcoin self custody, you know, maniacal cypherpunk kind of
44:19
roots of Bitcoin. I think most of the capital
44:22
flowing into Bitcoin has been through these ETFs, the
44:25
institutions buying the Wall Street products.
44:28
We, we haven't seen retail FOMO come into Bitcoin.
44:31
And that, in my opinion, is what drives the, the FOMO of Bitcoin,
44:35
the blow off tops because like, I'll be honest, when I got into
44:38
Bitcoin, I was not a sophisticated investor.
44:40
I, I'd, I'd argue I'm still not a sophisticated investor.
44:44
This is why I buy Bitcoin and take it into custody.
44:47
But when new people come into Bitcoin, they catch the FOMO,
44:50
they catch the hype. And for better or worse, a lot
44:54
of people buy at the top and they get absolutely wrecked.
44:56
And that's what makes them try to understand what Bitcoin is.
44:59
That's what turns them into the hardcore bitcoins that we see
45:02
today. So again, the article didn't
45:04
make any definitive points. It's like it looks kind of
45:07
different. It could be the same.
45:10
We won't know until we a little more time passes.
45:13
So that's kind of where we are. I don't want to say super cycle
45:16
cause to me, anytime we start saying super cycle, it's the
45:21
definitive de facto top signal. I think I was saying that in
45:24
October. I'm like, yo, super cycle's in.
45:26
I'm OK with saying it Now. Guess what happened?
45:29
It was a top, at least the local top.
45:30
OK, so the fact it's coming from an institution might hold a
45:35
little more weight than when I say it, but it's still the meme.
45:40
The memes hold still. Any time we start saying super
45:43
cycle, you could probably bet that we're going down OK, But
45:49
right now, hey, I don't want to jinx it.
45:51
I don't want to say that that's where we are right now because.
45:54
I don't want to see it go any lower, I want to see it go.
45:56
Up. But yeah, that's that's usually
46:00
what happens. All right, all right.
46:02
We're going to do a transition and then we're going.
46:04
To get into the the Fed, Jay Powell stuff.
46:08
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48:39
OK, guys, we are back so. The kind of context for this is,
48:45
obviously, we've seen a battle between Treasury and the Fed,
48:51
all of the most recent Trump administration.
48:56
You could say, you know, you can pick sides on this.
48:59
But from what I've been seeing, it seems to me that Treasury is
49:04
now in control above the Fed, which if you are more of AII
49:11
don't want to say status, but if you're more of like a rule of
49:14
law guy, you're more of a constitutionalist in America, in
49:17
American history. You're kind of like I, I'm kind
49:20
of OK with this. OK.
49:21
But we've seen this war between Trump and Jay Powell.
49:26
And this originally got released on the New York Times, but I
49:30
don't have a New York Times subscription.
49:31
So I have to use what, what am I have over here, the CNBC
49:34
article. But there is an interesting
49:36
correlation relation between this got when this got released
49:39
and what Jay Powell's statement when that got released.
49:42
And it was literally New York Times article was released.
49:45
And then Jay Powell instantly has this video on Twitter for
49:49
social media for everyone to see, which is kind of like Jay
49:52
Powell pleading to the American people to kind of take his side,
49:55
which I find very interesting. So anyway, let me let me read
49:59
the headline. I'll give you kind of the TLDR
50:01
of of what all this is because I'm guessing as a Bitcoiner you
50:05
don't really follow what the Fed is doing, which you know, serves
50:08
you right. But also as we've been seeing,
50:11
Bitcoin is becoming a macro asset.
50:13
I think This is why Bitcoin has reacted to anything coming out
50:17
of the Fed is because there's a lot of people that do react to
50:21
this stuff and that are now holding Bitcoin, hence why they
50:24
are starting to move in parallel or move because of certain
50:29
factors that are happening. Anyways, again, on CNBC, the
50:32
headline is Fed Chair Powell says he's under criminal
50:36
investigation, won't bow to Trump intimidation.
50:40
You got to turn everything on. OK, I guess Niko's going to pop
50:44
in here for a minute. He, he's going to set everything
50:47
up. Anyways, headline Fed Chair
50:49
Powell says he's under criminal investigation, won't bow to
50:52
Trump intimidation. And here's the key points.
50:55
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under federal criminal
50:58
investigation by the DOJ related to the 2 1/2 billion dollar
51:02
renovation of the central bank's headquarters and his
51:05
congressional testimony about that.
51:09
Powell said the probe was the result of the Fed, quote,
51:12
setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will
51:15
serve the public rather than following the president, the
51:19
preferences of President Donald Trump.
51:22
And then we got, you know, some backlash.
51:24
Senator Thom Tillis, a Northern North Carolina Republican and
51:28
Banking Committee member, said he would oppose any nominee by
51:33
Trump to replace Powell and any Fed board nominee until this
51:37
legal matter is fully resolved. So there's kind of the context
51:43
for what happened over the weekend and this happened Sunday
51:47
night, which is kind of interesting, the timing, because
51:53
this came out on Friday, this DOJ case and then the New York
51:59
Times article happened on Sunday night and then Jerome Powell
52:03
responded Sunday night. And so I think the timing is
52:08
probably the most interesting aspect of this because if this
52:11
wasn't a political move, if this wasn't to tank the markets, then
52:15
they would have probably talked about this on Friday before the
52:18
markets closed. But what they do, they waited a
52:20
couple of days until Sunday night before the markets open on
52:23
Monday to to see if they can get a reaction out of the markets.
52:27
Now I do want to play you guys Jerome Powell's response to this
52:32
because this is probably the most interesting aspects of this
52:35
and this is where we can break it down.
52:38
Good evening. On Friday, the Department of
52:42
Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury
52:45
subpoenas threatening a criminal indictment related to my
52:48
testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June.
52:53
That testimony concerned, in part, a multi year project to
52:57
renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings.
53:01
I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in
53:04
our democracy. No one, certainly not the Chair
53:08
of the Federal Reserve, is above the law.
53:10
But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader
53:13
context of the Administration's threats and ongoing pressure.
53:18
This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the
53:22
renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings.
53:24
It is not about Congress's oversight role. the Fed, through
53:28
testimony and other public disclosures, made every effort
53:31
to keep Congress informed about the renovation project.
53:35
Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges
53:39
is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates
53:43
based on our best assessment of what will serve the public,
53:46
rather than following the preferences of the president.
53:50
This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set
53:53
interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or
53:56
whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political
53:59
pressure or intimidation. I have served at the Federal
54:04
Reserve under 4 administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike.
54:08
In every case, I have carried out my duties without political
54:12
fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability
54:16
and maximum employment. Public service sometimes
54:20
requires standing firm in the face of threats.
54:24
I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do,
54:28
with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.
54:32
Thank you. Yeah, cap, big cap.
54:37
Nikka pops in. Nikka pops in.
54:39
He's guilty AF. I'm not buying it.
54:42
I call bullshit on Mr. Powell because what I will say or
54:49
Chairman Powell better said, is the whole idea that the Fed has
54:55
been acting in a neutral fashion is absolutely ludicrous.
55:01
Like the accommodations that they did for the previous
55:04
administration. I mean, they went over, they
55:07
went above and beyond to try to get Cacklin Kamala elected into
55:13
office, right? And again, it's not because I
55:16
think they're partisan, even though I do think they're
55:18
partisan. I think the majority of Fed
55:21
employees work for a certain political party.
55:23
But if you put all of that aside, right, they were
55:30
extremely hostile towards the Bitcoin and crypto industry.
55:33
That's number one. Number two, they were part of
55:38
Operation Choke .2 Point O. They were part of taking some of
55:42
these banks that were pro Bitcoin and they were banking
55:47
Bitcoin companies. They were part of all of that.
55:50
That's why Trump in his executive order, when he got
55:53
sworn into office, one of the things that he said was like,
55:57
OK, you know, the Fed is no longer involved in the
56:00
enforcement of anything that has to do with crypto and Bitcoin
56:04
and all of that stuff. And again, this isn't conspiracy
56:08
theory or like, you know, all this kookiness.
56:11
It's just basic game theory. The Federal Reserve's future is
56:16
a central bank digital currency. There is one specific party that
56:20
is pro CBDC, anti Bitcoin. And the future of the of the of
56:25
the central bank is not Bitcoin. I would say Bitcoin is not a
56:29
competition to local banks. It's a competition to the
56:33
central bank. It provides an alternative to
56:36
central banking. That's the whole point of
56:39
Bitcoin. So am I surprised that the first
56:46
pro Bitcoin president is being sabotaged by the Federal
56:53
Reserve? No, they control the price of
56:56
money essentially. So this is not surprising at
56:59
all. This is just game theory.
57:00
This is just people following their own incentives.
57:03
But like what Bitcoin always does.
57:06
And I've told you this guy, I told, I've told you this guys
57:10
for years. Bitcoin exposes incentives and
57:14
it doesn't matter how large the institution is or how powerful
57:17
the leader is. This is no different.
57:20
The reality is, is that the Federal Reserve is a privately
57:25
owned entity that is accountable to no one, that is not acting in
57:31
a bipartisan fashion, because that's the only reason they have
57:35
the protections that they do. They have the protections that
57:38
they have because they're supposed to be neutral.
57:43
But what happens if the very regulator itself stands to lose?
57:53
If the thing that they are supposedly regulating reaches
57:57
mass adoption? You get a misalignment of
58:00
incentives. You, you, you get that regulator
58:03
not acting in the best interest of the American people, but you
58:08
get that regulator acting in the best interest of themselves to
58:12
ensure their survival. That's what's happening right
58:15
now. And I've been saying this the
58:17
entire year. I've been saying this the entire
58:20
year. I'm like, look, the Fed is
58:22
sabotaging Trump's first year in office.
58:25
They don't want looser monetary policy because that's going to
58:28
make Trump look very, very good heading into the midterms.
58:32
And they know they could basically end Trump's presidency
58:37
if the Democrats take back the white, the, the House in 2020
58:41
and 2026 that so in 2027, the election is this year that
58:45
that's what's happening right now.
58:47
So they waited him out and it doesn't matter that a new fed
58:51
chair is going to be sworn in, you know, in the middle of the
58:54
year and the battle that that like I can't the the the
58:57
confirmation hearing is going to be wild.
58:59
I think we're going to have to like cover it on air like AUFC
59:03
fight and like, you know, like me and Opti will like off be
59:06
offering like Joe Rogan commentary.
59:08
Like it'll be it's going to be crazy.
59:10
Like they're going to go back and forth and try to shut down
59:13
any Trump nominee for for fed chair.
59:16
And then the last thing that I'll say is like this is it's
59:19
kind of like the end of the empire stage where the treasury
59:24
and the Fed could basically merge, right?
59:29
So the, the the the president has a direct influence over the
59:34
over the money printing, right? And you know that any.
59:37
President that's in power is going to use that influence to
59:42
benefit themselves and again this, you know, this clown
59:49
worldness because that's what it is of Powell going up there with
59:54
this like moral virtue and like this holier than thou and the
59:58
the big emblem and the man in the suit and the flags in the
1:00:01
background. It makes it look so effing
1:00:03
official. It's all.
1:00:05
A crock of shit. Because if you take a look at
1:00:08
the budget, they wanted to spend 3 billion effing dollars to
1:00:13
renovate the Federal Reserve. Just to kind of give you guys an
1:00:16
idea, a new project in New York City, like a new development, a
1:00:20
big building cost like 500, five, $100 million, like a
1:00:24
billion dollars to renovate a government building.
1:00:29
It's going to cost $3 billion because that is what the
1:00:33
criminal investigation is all about.
1:00:35
It's not about they, they're not, I'm not saying that Trump's
1:00:38
not using this to put pressure on Powell.
1:00:40
I'm not saying that. But like, that's some sketchy
1:00:44
stuff. Like I'm thinking about
1:00:46
Minnesota and when I hear stuff like that, I'm thinking about
1:00:49
daycares when I think like things like that, right?
1:00:52
That's what I'm thinking about, to be honest with you guys,
1:00:54
right? An inefficient use of money and
1:00:58
you know, where is all that money going?
1:01:00
That's another question, right? So, yeah, look, like I, I, I
1:01:05
just, I'm not buying it, Powell. I'm not buying it.
1:01:08
I'm not buying it. I don't think you're neutral.
1:01:10
I don't think you're doing what's best for the American
1:01:12
people. I think you're doing what's best
1:01:14
for you. You're accountable to nobody.
1:01:17
You know, the Fed is appointed. It's not, it's not an election.
1:01:20
And you're using all the tools and trades that you can in order
1:01:25
to ensure the survival of the very institution itself.
1:01:27
Like that's what I think. That's my honest to God opinion.
1:01:30
When I saw that, I'm like Trump's.
1:01:33
Trump's frustrated as hell because he can't pass his agenda
1:01:37
because you have a hostile Fed chair.
1:01:41
Trump is angry as hell because this guy isn't lowering rates as
1:01:45
he should be because again, he doesn't want to create a a good
1:01:50
economy. He doesn't want to allow a good
1:01:52
economy to happen under Trump's, you know, first half of his
1:01:57
first term, right? Because if that happens, then
1:01:59
the Republicans have a shot at winning the House.
1:02:02
If the Republicans have a shot at winning the House, guess what
1:02:05
happens? They're very unlikely, the
1:02:07
Senate. The Democrats take the Senate,
1:02:09
but then you're going to have essentially 2 terms, two House
1:02:14
terms where the party, part of the official party policy is to
1:02:22
be pro Bitcoin and is to be anti CBDC and you're going to have
1:02:28
two terms under that. They don't want that.
1:02:32
They want the Elizabeth Warren camp to come back in and give
1:02:37
back the Fed the power that they think they deserve.
1:02:41
That's what I think is happening.
1:02:42
But in reality, look, all of this is just shenanigans and
1:02:46
games. I've come to the realization and
1:02:50
the fact that literally the only way to stop this is to buy
1:02:54
Bitcoin, mine Bitcoin, and put that sweet, sweet Bitcoin into
1:02:58
self custody. If enough of us do it, we're
1:03:00
going to win. I think this is going to be a
1:03:03
cultural revolution that's going to take a very long time.
1:03:06
This is not something that's going to happen overnight, but
1:03:09
just remember that all of you guys are part of this
1:03:12
revolution. If you decide to opt out of this
1:03:15
system and take that Bitcoin into self custody, that's how we
1:03:18
win. That's ultimately how we win.
1:03:20
All of this political stuff this year made me realize that it
1:03:24
doesn't matter how hard you vote daddy.
1:03:27
It does not matter. What matters is how hard you
1:03:30
vote daddy with your wallet. That's what matters ultimately.
1:03:34
So that's my bit. Powell's guilty as hell.
1:03:38
He's definitely not neutral whatsoever.
1:03:41
Like. All he was so.
1:03:42
Accommodating to the previous administration.
1:03:45
And honestly, I was talking to my wife about this this, this
1:03:48
weekend. Like there's a part of me that's
1:03:50
like, all right, fine, you know, we have to go down the, the
1:03:54
narrow path and, and do things difficultly and difficulty and
1:03:57
like whatever. But there's another voice in my
1:03:59
head that's like, bro, I wish Kacklin Kamala came back because
1:04:04
at least the price of Bitcoin was going to the moon under the
1:04:07
previous administration. Ever since, ever since Bitcoin
1:04:11
has been, you know, ever since the government has been pro
1:04:14
Bitcoin, we've gone down, bro. We've gone down hardcore,
1:04:19
hardcore. Yeah, you're wildin, Doug.
1:04:26
Anyways, I I would go, I'd go one step further.
1:04:28
I would go further than what Nico said.
1:04:30
I do agree with a lot of what Nico said, but I think the Fed
1:04:37
is very obviously not neutral. And again, I would go even more
1:04:42
extreme. I think the Fed by design, by
1:04:44
its very creation is political. I would say everything the Fed's
1:04:47
done is political. That's that's what it is.
1:04:50
Like, even though it is not federal, has no reserves, I
1:04:54
would argue that the very creation of the Fed was
1:04:56
political. Everything they do is political.
1:04:58
So this whole like we're neutral, bro.
1:05:00
It's just like, miss me with that.
1:05:02
Jay Powell, like completely miss me with that.
1:05:05
And then the whole kind of move where like, I'm, you know, first
1:05:09
of all, he does this on Twitter so that the American population
1:05:14
or, you know, people on Twitter are like, yeah, this is an
1:05:17
extreme injustice that the Trump administration's coming after
1:05:21
the Fed when they're, you know, a, a institution about stability
1:05:25
and jobs and all that. And I was like, bro, the the
1:05:29
Federal Reserve is not here to benefit the American population.
1:05:33
It is not here to benefit citizens.
1:05:36
And Nikko says they're unaccountable.
1:05:38
Again, I would go further, Bert. Further, they're totally
1:05:41
accountable. It's just to the banks.
1:05:43
That is their whole mandate. Hence why I think it's
1:05:46
political. Everything they do is to ensure
1:05:49
that the banks stay in power, which Nikko's point of the CBDCI
1:05:52
think is probably, you know, directionally correct.
1:05:55
But everything the Fed does is political.
1:05:57
It is for the benefit of the banks.
1:05:58
It is not for, as Jay Powell says, the benefit of the
1:06:02
American population. That's a complete crock of shit.
1:06:06
Anyone that knows anything about the Fed would argue the
1:06:09
opposite. It's like you're not here for my
1:06:10
benefit. In fact, you're doing everything
1:06:13
you can to ensure that I am poor, that I can't get out of
1:06:16
the position I'm in, that there, it's completely political.
1:06:20
Now, another interesting aspect of this is that the particular
1:06:25
case in question, it's not the DOJ versus the Fed, it's the DOJ
1:06:31
versus Jerome Powell. Hence why he's coming out here
1:06:34
and trying to make make it a like, hey, it's US versus them
1:06:38
type thing. It's, you know, this tyrannical
1:06:41
out of control government attacking a public servant that
1:06:45
just trying to do the best your facade.
1:06:47
Now, the other tidbit which is very interesting is Jay Powell
1:06:51
is basically going to be out in a couple of months.
1:06:53
And it is interesting that he's finally kind of like drawing
1:06:56
battle lines and he's like, look, I'm actually going to
1:06:58
fight now when we are starting to hear the rumors that Trump
1:07:03
has already picked the next Fed chair, potentially it's going to
1:07:06
be someone either at Coinbase or more of a pro Bitcoin stance.
1:07:10
And we all know what's going on there, who the new guy in charge
1:07:14
of the Fed is probably going to be pro Trump agenda, which
1:07:18
they're going to run the money printer.
1:07:20
They're going to cut interest rates.
1:07:21
At least that's kind of the rumor.
1:07:23
And and like Nico does have a point.
1:07:25
We we know that they don't want this to happen because of the
1:07:30
power struggle going on. I think what we've seen the last
1:07:33
year, even though nothing really happened, I think what we've
1:07:36
seen is that the Fed is under the thumb of the treasury, which
1:07:40
we haven't ever seen before. And they're freaking out.
1:07:43
And This is why you're starting to see all this stuff come out
1:07:46
on social media because they need to get the narrative shift
1:07:49
here so that they can kind of, you know, maneuver however they
1:07:53
want to. So that that would be my take on
1:07:54
everything going on here, which I we agree on most things.
1:07:59
I just, I would go a little further than Nico.
1:08:01
Another thing I want to add to you is a little bit of a
1:08:03
disappointment. Is This is why gold and silver
1:08:07
have been pumping the way they've been pumping this year,
1:08:10
right? This is a lot of uncertainty for
1:08:13
the US dollar system. And I got to say it's a little
1:08:16
bit disappointing and surprising at the same time that Bitcoin
1:08:20
did not pump to the moon when that Jay Powell video dropped.
1:08:25
Like I it actually dumped it it like clockwork like it always
1:08:29
does. Like 10 AM boom, this thing
1:08:32
drops. That surprised me a lot man
1:08:35
because this type of news before Wall Street got involved dude.
1:08:40
We would have. Pumped like we put, we would
1:08:42
have pumped like. 1020%. In a day if this type of news
1:08:46
dropped. So I don't know what the hell is
1:08:47
going on. But yeah, I thought that was
1:08:51
interesting also. Yeah, yeah.
1:08:54
All right, let's, let's keep it. Ripping into the culture, 'cause
1:08:59
there was another big, big conversation going on on crypto
1:09:04
Twitter about crypto Twitter and Twitter view on Bitcoin, which
1:09:09
everyone was freaking out that this happened over the weekend
1:09:11
as well. This is more like a niche within
1:09:14
our community thing. So we did the broader Fed take
1:09:17
on what's going on in the macro. Now we're going to go.
1:09:20
Back down into kind of what we are dealing with on Twitter,
1:09:24
some people are making this like a very, you know, they're
1:09:27
attacking us. From Nikita's view, it's like
1:09:31
this is just kind of the game. I'll break this down and we will
1:09:34
talk about it. I don't know if Nika saw this
1:09:35
since he was in the hospital all weekend, but we'll be right
1:09:38
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1:11:36
Guys so on a now deleted post that I can confirm I read it
1:11:41
before he deleted this we got let me actually Nikita beer.
1:11:46
I. Think he is OK had a product
1:11:49
Nikita beer on Twitter tweeted this and then Bitcoin Twitter
1:11:54
crypto Twitter just absolutely exploded and then he started
1:11:58
deleting these tweets. So this is the only place I can
1:12:01
find this. It was a screenshot but I I can
1:12:04
confirm that this is This is what the tweet said.
1:12:07
I saw it before it was deleted. Anyways, Nikita beer again had a
1:12:11
product on Twitter goes. In October, a new myth started
1:12:14
circulating in CT and C TS crypto Twitter that you need to
1:12:18
reply hundreds of times per day to grow an account.
1:12:21
However, each time you post, it uses some of your reach for that
1:12:24
day Quote. We are parentheses.
1:12:27
We can't show all your posts to all your followers because the
1:12:29
average user only views 20 to 30 posts per day.
1:12:32
So crypto Twitter ends ends up wasting all their reach on
1:12:35
replying GM or Good Morning hundreds of times.
1:12:39
And when they finally post real content like a project
1:12:42
announcement, it only gets shown to three people.
1:12:45
Crypto Twitter is dying from unaliving itself and not from
1:12:50
the algorithm. And this absolutely blew up on
1:12:55
Bitcoin Twitter. And they were basically saying
1:12:57
like, you know, head of product at Twitter admits that they're
1:13:00
trying to the live Bitcoin Twitter, they're trying to
1:13:06
minimize our reach out there. Though there is a little
1:13:08
interesting tidbits in this. You know, Nikita beer pretty
1:13:11
much admitted like you have this like reach meter where like if
1:13:15
you use up, you know, all of your power level or all of your
1:13:19
reach, then you're not going to be seen by anyone's.
1:13:23
And that they're, you know, messing with the the Twitter
1:13:27
algorithm so that they get more engagement and more sign ups and
1:13:32
all this stuff, basically trying to harvest engagement but also
1:13:37
minimizing. Niche groups.
1:13:39
And Bitcoin Twitter's been in in the front of this.
1:13:41
Now, there's a lot of takes on this.
1:13:43
I think as I've been telling you guys, I have noticed on this
1:13:47
side of making content that in general, it seems like all
1:13:51
social media Bitcoin content is kind of on the the decline right
1:13:55
now. I would argue it's because of
1:13:56
the price, because of the sentiment, because we haven't
1:13:59
done anything. And I think once the price kind
1:14:01
of comes back, I'm sure Bitcoin Twitter will pop off again.
1:14:05
Though it is very interesting that Nikita Beer, we were all
1:14:08
very bullish on Nikita Beer coming in as head of product
1:14:11
because he is a Bitcoiner. He is also kind of a shit
1:14:13
coiner, basically like a Bitcoiners ahead of of Twitter.
1:14:18
So therefore. Bitcoin Twitter content should
1:14:21
blow up. In practice it seems like the
1:14:24
opposite. Happened.
1:14:25
Not necessarily saying that they targeted bitcoiners per SE maybe
1:14:30
they're targeting niche communities in general and kind
1:14:34
of doing this like generalization what what's good
1:14:38
hits the front for you page not just what's good in the things
1:14:41
you're interested. They're they're trying to, I
1:14:44
guess, democratize the content on Twitter.
1:14:47
But if you've been on Twitter, you've been posting, maybe
1:14:50
you've been seeing something similar where you know, I post.
1:14:53
I never really expect I'm kind of one of those just posting to
1:14:56
the void Twitter people, but like I'll post something good
1:15:00
that I think is. Good, doesn't get any reach.
1:15:02
I'll post. Some slop and it blows up.
1:15:06
OK, But then we got before I pass it over to Nico.
1:15:09
Then we got Elon Musk responding literally, I think in response
1:15:14
to this, not necessarily about Bitcoin Twitter, but he goes, we
1:15:18
will make the new X algorithm, including all code used to
1:15:21
determine what organic and advertising posts are
1:15:23
recommended to users, open source in seven days.
1:15:27
This will repeat it every four weeks with comprehensive
1:15:29
developer notes to help you understand what changed.
1:15:32
I think this was a direct response to everyone freaking
1:15:35
out about what Nikita Beer said in regards to Crypto Twitter, or
1:15:39
I like to call it Bitcoin Twitter.
1:15:40
And then yeah, I do got to throw a meme in here before I pass it
1:15:43
over to Nico. Here we got Nikita Beer as the
1:15:47
world echo Economic Forum and it goes you will not good morning
1:15:51
and you'll be happy. So that's.
1:15:55
Kind of what happened in our niche.
1:15:57
On. Twitter over the weekend.
1:16:00
It looks on one hand that there is like a targeted attack on
1:16:04
Bitcoin Twitter content. On the other hand, they're kind
1:16:08
of saying like, oh, we're just trying to revamp the the
1:16:10
algorithm, get more organic growth.
1:16:13
Though if you've been seeing the For you page, it's hardly been
1:16:16
organic at all. It's always like a political,
1:16:19
very violent, crazy thing. You're seeing all kinds of
1:16:22
nonsense. So I think that I think the
1:16:25
question now is as Nico likes. To.
1:16:27
Say Elon Musk freed the bird. It did seem to get better for a
1:16:32
little bit, but in many ways it seemed like Twitter has gotten
1:16:35
worse. For a lot of.
1:16:36
Us and now we kind of know the the where, where it's coming
1:16:40
from. So that's kind of the breakdown
1:16:43
at least in the in the Bitcoin. Culture What?
1:16:45
Happened. Nikko, what's your take on this?
1:16:48
You are a a social media expert as well.
1:16:51
Did you see this? First of all, did you see this?
1:16:52
I mean, I'm starting to see it on YouTube.
1:16:56
Which is quite interesting, like Major and I and we, I don't know
1:17:00
if you could pull up the data for that.
1:17:01
It was coin Telegraph that posted it, but basically you're
1:17:04
seeing this huge downturn of, of like crypto and Bitcoin related
1:17:11
content on YouTube. So if you're a Bitcoin YouTube,
1:17:15
crypto YouTube, January's been rough for us included regarding
1:17:22
X. I've noticed that for quite a
1:17:24
long time like this. This relevation is not new to
1:17:28
me. It used to be a lot easier to
1:17:31
grow on Twitter not too long ago, actually, I found it.
1:17:37
I found it here we go. It used to be a lot easier to
1:17:39
grow. On Twitter, not too long.
1:17:41
Ago and then they changed the algorithm and it was very
1:17:44
obvious they changed the algorithm yeah Nico you wanna
1:17:48
you wanna look I I I pulled it up I got.
1:17:50
It, I got it. He doesn't have his computer
1:17:51
right now. So basically, yeah, so.
1:17:55
This is YouTube. This is kind of normal when it
1:17:58
comes to bear markets. Like when you experience a bear
1:18:01
market, it's obviously normal that less people are searching,
1:18:07
are actively searching Bitcoin related content.
1:18:11
Like that makes perfect sense 'cause obviously people are just
1:18:14
not interested in it. Now is YouTube and X kind of
1:18:19
coordinating together and saying, hey, you know, we, we
1:18:23
should push this stuff less. I don't know, that's kind of a
1:18:27
stretch to say. But what I will say is like this
1:18:30
is what happens every cycle, right?
1:18:32
Like Opti's been saying, oh, we're not in a cycle, we're not
1:18:35
in this. But I disagree with him.
1:18:38
I would say look like this is a Bitcoin cycle until it's broken.
1:18:42
Like if we make an all time high in the next 6 months, I'll say
1:18:45
OK, you know what, I was wrong. But so far this seems like a
1:18:50
cycle. Now it's not a traditional cycle
1:18:52
because we topped on apathy within top on euphoria.
1:18:56
So I don't think we're going to get an 80% draw down.
1:19:00
I don't know for sure, but I just don't see it.
1:19:04
If we were already in the bear, we'd be down 50 to 60% by now.
1:19:08
That doubt that's a fact. We're only down like 2828%.
1:19:12
So I think this this downside is going to be muted.
1:19:16
You know, if we do see a bottom maybe in the 60s around there.
1:19:22
And then when it comes to like content creation, I noticed this
1:19:26
months ago and it was under Elon Musk.
1:19:29
It got to the point where if you were a good poster and like you
1:19:35
knew you were providing value to people, you were growing
1:19:39
significantly faster. And that's how all these initial
1:19:42
accounts grew as fast as they did.
1:19:44
That's gone. I don't see the same for
1:19:48
personal accounts, though. For personal accounts, like, you
1:19:52
know, I put effort into my personal account, but we don't
1:19:55
have a team running our personal account, right?
1:19:59
And it seems like personal accounts are still resonate with
1:20:02
people and it seems like they're putting a lot more value on
1:20:06
personal accounts rather than they they specifically said that
1:20:10
than brand accounts. That's what I'm noticing.
1:20:15
But brand account, the personal accounts, you could still grow
1:20:17
extremely fast, but brand accounts, it seems like it's
1:20:21
slowing down just a bit. And then on YouTube, I think it
1:20:25
could be price related. I don't know.
1:20:28
I know that it's across the board.
1:20:29
I don't know if it's like a change in algo or a change in
1:20:33
thing, but I do know that it's across the board that people,
1:20:37
it's slowing down. Now, I'll tell you this.
1:20:39
Look, no matter how much you manipulate social media and
1:20:43
change the algorithm to favor one thing over the over the
1:20:46
other, the reality is that as soon as Bitcoin starts ripping,
1:20:51
you're going to have a whole flood of people coming back in.
1:20:55
And ultimately YouTube and X are businesses.
1:21:00
And if they see a whole bunch of people coming in searching,
1:21:05
actively searching for Bitcoin related content, what are they
1:21:08
going to do? They're obviously going to push
1:21:11
Bitcoin related content. So this is like par of the
1:21:14
course with if you've ever been in a bear market, this is how it
1:21:18
is, man. It's just, it sucks 'cause
1:21:20
we're, we're content creators, but this is affecting every
1:21:23
business. I have a lot of insights into
1:21:26
multiple Bitcoin businesses, whether it's miners, social
1:21:30
media platforms, whatever. And things are engagement is
1:21:34
just down across the board. And again, I think it just has
1:21:37
to do with the price. So many people have convinced
1:21:40
themselves of the four year prophecy of the four year cycle.
1:21:44
And at that point, if so many people are convinced that
1:21:49
Bitcoin lives and dies by a four year cycle, then it becomes a
1:21:53
self fulfilling prophecy. I think we're it's all caught us
1:21:57
completely off guard is we never had a blow off top this cycle.
1:22:03
We never had a blow off top. So you can't really go back into
1:22:06
the past and say oh we've been here before, we haven't been
1:22:09
here before. The only part where you can
1:22:12
compare this to is 2019. So 2019, we ripped from 3500 and
1:22:19
we got up to 16,000 and then we went sideways for like 6 months
1:22:25
and then the pandemic hit, Price went nuked, went back down to
1:22:29
like the five 4K region and then it ripped to the $60,000 top or
1:22:36
$69,000 top that we had in 21. I removing the Black Swan event
1:22:43
out of out of the equation, right?
1:22:47
I think that this cycle is more like 2019 in terms of of
1:22:53
performance. And I'm not the only one to say
1:22:55
this, by the way, because the 2019 peak was a peak on apathy.
1:23:01
Basically what that means is that it was a peak on people.
1:23:04
People just got tired and they just lost interest, right?
1:23:08
And if you take a look at social media, if you take a look at
1:23:11
YouTube, if you take a look at Twitter, if you take a look at
1:23:14
Google Trends, retail doesn't give a flying F.
1:23:18
Now, going back when was the last time retail cared?
1:23:22
I've been telling you guys this. The euphoric peak of this cycle
1:23:27
was the end of 24, the beginning of 2025 S Trump's inauguration,
1:23:34
and the end of 2024. Which should have been obvious
1:23:37
because literally I was at Michael Saylor's house 100K
1:23:41
party with a yacht and it was this beautiful party.
1:23:44
And then Trump gets inaugurated and launches Trump coin.
1:23:47
Like all of that should have been obvious Effing top signals
1:23:51
in hindsight, right? Every cycle's different.
1:23:55
This cycle. 'S no different and we're in
1:23:59
uncharted territory. The good news is I don't think
1:24:02
we're going to have an 80% draw down.
1:24:04
I could always be wrong, could always be wrong.
1:24:06
I just don't foresee it. Also, the good news is I think
1:24:11
we are going to hit some type of bottom this year and I'm very,
1:24:15
very bull. I think 2026 is going to end up
1:24:18
in the green and I think 2027 is going to be awesome and I think
1:24:22
2028 is going to be awesome and it's just going to, you know,
1:24:24
things are just gonna pick up from here 'cause if not, Bitcoin
1:24:27
dies. Bitcoin is binary.
1:24:29
Like Bitcoin either goes to 0 or it keeps going up forever.
1:24:32
It it, it doesn't work if it just goes sideways, it doesn't
1:24:36
work with the difficulty adjustments and it doesn't work
1:24:39
with the incentive. Like ultimately, like you can be
1:24:42
as ideological as you want and say, and the Fed and all of that
1:24:46
stuff, but ultimately what makes Bitcoin believers is number go
1:24:51
up technology. So if number go up, doesn't go
1:24:54
up, then we got much bigger problems.
1:24:58
That's my take. Facts.
1:25:00
I've been saying that as well. If the price doesn't RIP, this
1:25:06
experiment over so. You know, I know a lot.
1:25:09
Of people like to say, hey, there's more, more interesting
1:25:11
things about Bitcoin than the price.
1:25:13
I'd agree with you, but Bitcoin needs to go up or else it
1:25:18
failed. That's just like the, the short
1:25:21
of it. But back to kind of the
1:25:23
algorithm stuff. My kind of personal view on this
1:25:27
is I know Bitcoin Twitter was kind of freaking out or crypto
1:25:31
Twitter 'cause there was a lot of shit corners.
1:25:34
I, I saw them all freaking out and they were making it seem
1:25:37
like it was a, you know, coordinated attack on crypto
1:25:40
Twitter. I don't necessarily think that
1:25:42
that's the case. I think what happened is, you
1:25:46
know, Elon Musk came in and then they very publicly were like,
1:25:50
we're going to fix the algorithm.
1:25:51
We're going to open source all this.
1:25:53
And I think these are kind of like the second order effects of
1:25:56
them wholesale changing the Twitter code and just really
1:26:00
kind of prioritizing other things.
1:26:03
And like we've been seeing it on our end for a while.
1:26:08
We've been wondering like, what's going on?
1:26:10
You know, Elon Musk got in. We thought we would our growth
1:26:14
would go crazy. We always kind of take the Mr.
1:26:17
Mr. Beast view where it's like if you're not getting some good
1:26:20
engagement, it just means your content sucks.
1:26:23
We that's kind of the view we were always taking.
1:26:25
But now in hindsight, it does show like, yeah, the algorithm
1:26:29
completely changed, completely messed.
1:26:31
I wouldn't say necessarily messed up Twitter, but it, it
1:26:35
definitely had an effect on some of the stuff that we did love on
1:26:38
Bitcoin Twitter. So if you felt like your social
1:26:40
media experience on Twitter is different, you know exactly why
1:26:44
we have the smoking gun. It's been very, very obvious.
1:26:47
Here's Mitchell Otto and he says many of my mutuals have been
1:26:50
giving. What was his name?
1:26:52
Nikita. Yeah, Nikita.
1:26:54
Nikita a hard time about this. But as someone who's interacted
1:26:57
almost exclusively with the Bitcoin slash crypto niche, I
1:27:01
understand why X is doing this. Most of crypto Twitter's huge
1:27:05
breaking chart scribbles hyperbolic price predictions, AI
1:27:10
girl, PFP bots and NFTPFP bots. A 70% D boost is honestly
1:27:16
generous because the noise to signal ratio is probably close
1:27:19
to 95%. If you want this platform to
1:27:22
support insightful Bitcoin and crypto dialogue, start having
1:27:26
insightful and Bitcoin. The thing is like if you guys
1:27:30
follow my account, I, I. Post like.
1:27:33
I try to post once a day, but I don't post like consistently.
1:27:37
But if you see one of my posts, they're dope.
1:27:42
They're good posts. They offer value, all right, The
1:27:46
the the moon, the moon boy stuff.
1:27:49
It gets annoying, dude, it gets I'm a moon boy now.
1:27:54
Honestly, what what is interesting.
1:27:56
Though and I have noticed it gets annoying like yeah no but
1:27:59
he's like bro you doom scroll. And it's like.
1:28:01
Every I swear to God like guys. Go to your Twitter, you doom
1:28:06
scroll and what happens? You got a price prediction.
1:28:09
I lose my place because it refreshes and.
1:28:12
You get a price prediction, you get a whatever.
1:28:14
But no, I didn't mean I didn't. Mean to say my posts are dope.
1:28:17
What I meant to say is when I post it like comes from the
1:28:20
heart. It's like something that I
1:28:22
actually had to say. It's not something that's like,
1:28:24
OK, I'm I'm in, I'm engagement farming.
1:28:26
It's actually an original thought.
1:28:28
OK, I'll give you that. I'll give you that it's an
1:28:30
original thought whether I agree with the post.
1:28:32
Or not, I'll give you. It's an.
1:28:33
Original thought it's an. Original.
1:28:34
It's an original thought that I, that I, that I.
1:28:37
That I that I come to my mind and I'm Speaking of that.
1:28:41
That is initially what Twitter was all about, right?
1:28:44
It's a meant for that. It's not meant for, you know,
1:28:50
breaking chart this that it's not meant for that.
1:28:55
It's meant for individuals speaking their minds on current
1:28:59
events. That's what makes it such a good
1:29:00
news platform, in my opinion. Like you follow like your
1:29:05
favorite influence or whatever. You follow them because of their
1:29:07
takes. Like you what?
1:29:09
Why do you follow Lynn Alden? Why do you follow Press and
1:29:11
Pish? Because you want like really
1:29:13
good takes on certain things. Like if you follow me, you're
1:29:16
following me because you want my takes on certain things, right?
1:29:19
If you follow Opti, you know what you're going to get.
1:29:21
You want his takes on certain things.
1:29:23
No, no, you follow me for the shit post, that's what.
1:29:26
I'm saying you're, you're literally confirming what I'm
1:29:29
saying. You're.
1:29:29
Following Opti because you know that.
1:29:31
You're going to get a certain type of, of content.
1:29:33
So, but I you know, the, the, the huge breaking and then the
1:29:38
charts and dude, don't hate on the Twitter team, bro, that's
1:29:41
that's messed up. What do you mean the Twitter
1:29:44
team does the breaking we don't do?
1:29:46
Massive breaking, but. But our Twitter team focuses on
1:29:49
on on news aggregation. I know that provides value
1:29:52
that's different. I'm trolling.
1:29:54
What I'm trying to say is like some people.
1:29:56
Definitely take advantage. Of the of the algo to like
1:30:00
engagement farm. Yeah, I know of a few people
1:30:03
that do the all caps fake news shit.
1:30:05
And it drives me I'm. Not going to.
1:30:08
I'm not. Going to say name but like I
1:30:09
say, I think that's what he's trying.
1:30:11
I think that's what he's trying to address.
1:30:13
I. Think he's trying to address the
1:30:15
like the the slop because it is slop.
1:30:19
That's what it is. Well, the interesting thing and
1:30:21
I, and I'm glad you you said that is because.
1:30:24
I've noticed personally, and I'm not it's I'm not complaining
1:30:27
here. You could just say it's the
1:30:29
incentives, but I've noticed that the more effort I've put
1:30:33
into a Twitter like, Oh, this is banger value, like, you know, in
1:30:38
a unique insight, it doesn't go anywhere.
1:30:41
And then I just I I do a shit post, like the lowest effort
1:30:46
shit post and it does bangers. So what do you think I'm
1:30:49
incentivized to do? Like actually work on my Twitter
1:30:52
or I'm just like, all right, I'm just going to talk some shit
1:30:54
right now because hey, you guys love the shit talking.
1:30:57
So but but like no, I mean look, I I think the.
1:31:00
Key to Twitter is to speak from the heart.
1:31:03
I think if you don't speak from the heart on Twitter, I think
1:31:07
it's just not going to resonate with people.
1:31:09
I think that's really the key to Twitter.
1:31:12
Like if you speak from the heart and you have an original take on
1:31:15
like a current event or something, like people are going
1:31:18
to resonate with that. Like I think that's really,
1:31:21
it's, it's really not complicated.
1:31:23
I think that if you don't have an original take, like if you're
1:31:26
just regurgitating what everyone is saying, then people are just
1:31:30
not going to resonate with what you have to say.
1:31:32
And like, everyone has a different approach on this,
1:31:35
like, like Opti likes, you know, a specific style of content.
1:31:40
I like memes and jokes. Well, actually, the memes have
1:31:42
been trashed. I like funny posts.
1:31:44
There you go, right? Funny post and macro posts.
1:31:47
That's what I like. So like you guys know, if you
1:31:49
tune into my Twitter, it's like Nico.
1:31:51
Jones type of takes right? It's politics.
1:31:55
That's what I like, you know, that's.
1:31:56
What? That's what.
1:31:57
You know, that's what. I like that's what I'm
1:31:58
interested in, but like that's the way that Twitter unpopular
1:32:02
opinion here, but that's the way that Twitter should be.
1:32:05
Like it should be this individual individuals talking
1:32:08
and having a discussion, right? Like that's what I think Twitter
1:32:12
should be. I I don't like the the algorithm
1:32:15
games, though. I don't like that part.
1:32:18
I don't like the whole deboosting and stuff like that.
1:32:20
Like that's weird. Like, what does that entail?
1:32:23
I need more information. Right?
1:32:27
Yeah, Tommy. Tommy of the chat.
1:32:30
Lol. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:32:33
Anyways, anyways, let's let's wrap up.
1:32:35
Let's wrap up today show. All right, Well, hey, I think
1:32:39
before we go, Nico, I'll do a live on air.
1:32:43
Congratulations. The chat was really wondering.
1:32:47
They've been sending you a lot of love today, actually the last
1:32:49
couple of days. So congratulations are in order
1:32:52
to you and Sophie, thank you. That I get.
1:32:57
Yeah, if you know, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:32:59
I gotta take this. All right, All right, guys, Love
1:33:01
you guys. Love you guys.
1:33:02
Thank you guys for the best wishes.
1:33:04
I appreciate. It yes we welcomed another
1:33:06
bitcoiner to the family Opti all right guys, all right.
1:33:12
Guys, so Nico will be back this week, for better or worse all.
1:33:21
Right. Hey, what Week 2?
1:33:24
Of 2026. Second full week 2020. 6.
1:33:30
Let's hope some news happens. Let's hope something, something
1:33:34
crazy happens. So Thursday is going to be
1:33:37
something to watch out for. Maybe cover it, you know, the
1:33:41
day before or something like that.
1:33:42
But anyways, on that note, happy Monday.
1:33:44
Have a good rest of your day, yadda yadda yadda.
1:33:48
You know all the good stuff. Peace out.
1:33:50
I will see you tomorrow on another episode of Simply
1:33:53
Bitcoin Live. Today's episode was brought to
1:33:57
you by bitcoinwell.com. A.
1:33:58
Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
1:34:02
independence.