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Elon Musk latest starship updates 2025 · Elon Musk Thinking

0:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, all right, the gateway to Mars.
0:10
Speaker 1: So here we are. Here, we are at the newly
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Speaker 1: incorporated star based Texas. This is the first new city
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Speaker 1: made in America in I think quite a few decades
0:29
Speaker 1: that at least, that's what I'm told. And a very
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Speaker 1: cool name. And it's named that because it is the
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Speaker 1: It is where we're going to develop the technology necessary
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Speaker 1: to take humanity and civilization and life as we know
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Speaker 1: it to another planet for the first time in the
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Speaker 1: four and a half billion year history of Earth. Go
1:00
Speaker 1: with this little video here. This is how it started
1:02
Speaker 1: off with basically nothing. So start Starve started off as
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Speaker 1: basically a sandbar with nothing. Even those little things we
1:16
Speaker 1: built obviously that's the original sort of Mad Max rocket.
1:44
Speaker 1: That's where you discovered light lighting is very important for
1:46
Speaker 1: that Mad Max rocket. So yeah, not that long ago,
2:05
Speaker 1: there was basically nothing here and in the space of
2:08
Speaker 1: about five or six years, thanks to the incredible work
2:12
Speaker 1: of the SpaceX team, we've built a small city and
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Speaker 1: we've built two gigantic launch pads and a gigantic rocket
2:23
Speaker 1: factory for a gigantic rocket. And the cool thing is,
2:28
Speaker 1: for anyone out there who's watching this you can actually
2:32
Speaker 1: come and visit because our entire production facility and launch
2:37
Speaker 1: site are on a public highway, so anyone who comes
2:41
Speaker 1: to South Texas can come and see the rocket pretty
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Speaker 1: close up and see the factory. And so if anyone
2:50
Speaker 1: is interested in seeing the largest flying object on earth
2:53
Speaker 1: can come here anytime they want and just drive down
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Speaker 1: the public highway and see it, which is pretty cool.
2:59
Speaker 1: So then we progress to where we are now, start
3:05
Speaker 1: based twenty twenty five, so we're now at the point
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Speaker 1: where we can produce a ship roughly every two or
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Speaker 1: three weeks. Now, we don't always produce a ship every
3:23
Speaker 1: two or three weeks because we are making design upgrades,
3:27
Speaker 1: but ultimately we're aiming for the ability to produce one
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Speaker 1: thousand ships a year, so three ships a day. So
3:39
Speaker 1: that's where things are now. I'm standing in that building
3:50
Speaker 1: that's our hovercraft. We're driving a booster down the road
4:11
Speaker 1: to the launch site. You can see the megabase, and
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Speaker 1: I said, what's the cool The cool thing for those
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Speaker 1: out there watching this video is that you can actually
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Speaker 1: just literally come here, drive down the road and see it,
4:34
Speaker 1: which is the first time in history that that's been possible.
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Speaker 1: So all this cool stuff. You that that road on
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Speaker 1: the left there, that highway is public and you can
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Speaker 1: just come here and see it, which I recommend doing.
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Speaker 1: I think it's very inspiring to see. So that's our gigabay.
4:56
Speaker 1: So where we're expanding integration to produce one thousand star
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Speaker 1: shows per year. Well, yeah, that hasn't been built yet,
5:05
Speaker 1: but we're building it. That is a truly enormous structure.
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Speaker 1: Is that this will be one that'll be one of
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Speaker 1: the biggest structures, I think, by some measures, the biggest
5:14
Speaker 1: structure in the world, and it's designed for a thousand
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Speaker 1: starships a year. We're also building a gigabay in Florida,
5:27
Speaker 1: bringing so we'll have two facilities, one in Texas and
5:31
Speaker 1: one in Florida. It's it's actually difficult to gauge the
5:37
Speaker 1: size of these buildings because you need a kind of
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Speaker 1: human for scale where you see how tiny a human
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Speaker 1: is next to that building, you realize just how enormous
5:44
Speaker 1: it is. So when we look at our built comparison
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Speaker 1: vehicles per year, and so you look at Boeing an
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Speaker 1: airbus making airplanes, starship make it. We'll be making at
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Speaker 1: some point probably as many starships from Mars as Boeing
6:07
Speaker 1: and Airbus make commercial airplanes, So this is really at
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Speaker 1: a scale enormal scale, and each starship will have a capability.
6:19
Speaker 1: Each starship is bigger than a seven forty seven or
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Speaker 1: an A three eighty, like, it's truly enormous. And then
6:28
Speaker 1: in terms of starship star stalling satellites, the Version three
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Speaker 1: satellites making on the order of five thousand a year,
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Speaker 1: maybe at some point closer to ten thousand a year,
6:40
Speaker 1: and those stalling B three satellites are each the size
6:44
Speaker 1: of roughly a seven thirty seven. They're pretty big. That
6:50
Speaker 1: compares to the B twenty four bomber in World War Two.
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Speaker 1: Now it's still small compared to Tesla, so and Tesla
7:02
Speaker 1: will probably be doing you know, double or trouble that
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Speaker 1: volume in the future. So it just puts things into
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Speaker 1: perspective that is, it is actually possible to build a
7:14
Speaker 1: vast number of interplanetary star shifts. And even when you
7:18
Speaker 1: can compare things on the tonnage standpoint, Tesla is still
7:22
Speaker 1: and other co company is still building far more complex
7:25
Speaker 1: manufactured tonnage than this basics, which is really is a
7:29
Speaker 1: way of saying that it's very achievable. Like these numbers.
7:34
Speaker 1: While they are insanely high by traditional space standards, are
7:38
Speaker 1: are are achievable by humans because they have been achieved
7:43
Speaker 1: in other industries. Progress is measured by the timeline to
7:47
Speaker 1: establishing a self sustaining civilization on Mars. That's how we're
7:51
Speaker 1: gauging out progress here at star Base. So with each launch,
7:55
Speaker 1: especially in the early days of Starship, each launch is
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Speaker 1: about learning more and more about what's needed to make
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Speaker 1: life multiplanetary and to improve Starship to the point where
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Speaker 1: it can be taking ultimately hundreds of thousands, if not millions,
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Speaker 1: of people to Mars. Ideally we can take anyone who
8:14
Speaker 1: wants to go to Mars. We can take to Mars
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Speaker 1: and bring with it, bring all of the equipment necessary
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Speaker 1: to make more self sustaining so Mars can grow by
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Speaker 1: itself in a worst case scenario. Getting to the point
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Speaker 1: where the fundamental folk in the road for human destiny
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Speaker 1: is where where Mars can continue to grow even if
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Speaker 1: the supply shifts from Earth stopped coming for any reason.
8:43
Speaker 1: At that point, we've achieved civilizational resilience where Mars can
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Speaker 1: potentially come to the rescue of Earth if something goes wrong,
8:54
Speaker 1: or maybe Earth could come to the rescue of Mars.
8:57
Speaker 1: But having two planets that are that can that that
9:02
Speaker 1: are both self sustaining and strong, I think it's going
9:07
Speaker 1: to be incredibly important for the long term survival of civilization. So,
9:15
Speaker 1: like just I think any given civilization is likely to
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Speaker 1: last maybe I don't know, ten times longer, maybe much
9:21
Speaker 1: longer if it is a multiplanet civilization, then if it
9:26
Speaker 1: is a single planet civilization, because there's always there's always
9:28
Speaker 1: some chance that you know, us humans could do something
9:33
Speaker 1: crazy like World Wars three, hopefully not, but it's possible,
9:37
Speaker 1: or that there could be some natural event like meteors
9:41
Speaker 1: or super volcanoes or something that we don't expect, and
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Speaker 1: and and then if you only have one planet, the neck,
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Speaker 1: that could be curtains. But if we've got two planets,
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Speaker 1: we keep going and and then we go beyond Mars,
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Speaker 1: ultimately to the mood maybe the asteroid belt, the moons
10:01
Speaker 1: are Jupiter and beyond, and ultimately to other star systems,
10:05
Speaker 1: and we can be out there among the stars, making
10:08
Speaker 1: science fiction no longer fiction. So in order to achieve
10:12
Speaker 1: this goal, we have to be we have to make
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Speaker 1: rapidly reusable rockets so that the uh the cost per flight,
10:19
Speaker 1: the cost per ton to Mars is as low as possible.
10:23
Speaker 1: That's essential. So for that rapidly reusable rockets, I said,
10:29
Speaker 1: it's actually four urs. Right, it's like a pirate are.
10:32
Speaker 1: It's like rapidly reusable, reliable rockets is the key are are.
10:42
Speaker 1: Now we've uh aggrass to the SpaceX team on making
10:45
Speaker 1: incredible progress on catching a giant rocket. So it's really
10:58
Speaker 1: mind blowing that the SpaceX team has been able to
11:03
Speaker 1: catch the largest flying object ever made multiple times using
11:10
Speaker 1: a very novel method of catching it out of the
11:12
Speaker 1: air with giant chopsticks. I mean, I've ever seen that before. Yeah,
12:21
Speaker 1: congrarets agating. That was an incredible achievement. So the reason
12:33
Speaker 1: we are catching it in this way, which is never
12:38
Speaker 1: been done before, is in order to achieve the rapidly
12:41
Speaker 1: reasonable portion of the in order to make the rocket
12:45
Speaker 1: rapidly reasonable. So if it is if the super heavy booster,
12:51
Speaker 1: which is gigantic, it's like thirty feet in diameter, if
12:57
Speaker 1: it were to land with landing legs on landing pad,
12:59
Speaker 1: we would then have to pick it up, stow the legs,
13:05
Speaker 1: and put it back in the launch pad. And that's
13:10
Speaker 1: it's quite difficult to transport such a lot of thing.
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Speaker 1: But if we catch it with the same tower that
13:16
Speaker 1: it's used to put it in the launch amount to
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Speaker 1: begin with, that is the best case outcome for rapid reuse.
13:25
Speaker 1: So it literally gets caught by the same arms that
13:28
Speaker 1: placed it in the launch in launchering and then it
13:33
Speaker 1: is placed back in the launchering immediately. So in principle,
13:36
Speaker 1: the super heavy booster can be reflown within an hour
13:40
Speaker 1: of landing, so it comes back in about five or
13:45
Speaker 1: six minutes one way or another, and then it gets
13:50
Speaker 1: caught by the tower arms placed back in the launch mount,
13:55
Speaker 1: and then you can re propellant in about thirty to
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Speaker 1: forty minutes and place a ship on top of it,
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Speaker 1: and in principle refly the entire booster every hour, maybe
14:08
Speaker 1: every two hours to give a little bit of extra time.
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Speaker 1: But let's just say it's it's very it's in the
14:14
Speaker 1: limit of rapid reuse. And then the next thing we
14:23
Speaker 1: need to do is catch the ship too. So we
14:27
Speaker 1: haven't done this yet, but we will. So that's what
14:44
Speaker 1: we hope to demonstrate later this year, maybe as soon
14:48
Speaker 1: as two or three months from now, and then the
14:54
Speaker 1: ship would be placed on top of the booster and
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Speaker 1: then again refold with propellant and flown again with the ship.
15:04
Speaker 1: It takes a bit longer because it's got orbit Earth
15:06
Speaker 1: a few times until the groundtrack comes back over the
15:09
Speaker 1: launch pad. But the ship is also intended to be
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Speaker 1: reflown multiple times per day. So is the new Raptor three,
15:21
Speaker 1: which is an awesome engine began to the Raftor team
15:23
Speaker 1: for this. This is very exciting. So a Raft three
15:34
Speaker 1: is designed to require no basic heat shield, saving a
15:38
Speaker 1: lot of mass on the bottom and actually improving reliability
15:40
Speaker 1: so that if there is, for example, a small fuel
15:44
Speaker 1: leak from the Raftor engine, it will simply leak into
15:48
Speaker 1: the existing flaming plasma and not really matter, whereas a
15:55
Speaker 1: fuel leak when the engines are contained in a box
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Speaker 1: is a very scary thing. Indeed, So this is a
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Speaker 1: Raptor three. Uh, it'll take it, probably a few kicks
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Speaker 1: if the can, but it will be. It is a
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Speaker 1: massive increase in payler capability, in engine efficiency, and in reliability.
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Speaker 1: So this is really a revolutionary engine. The Raft three
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Speaker 1: is really i'd say, kind of alien technology rocket engine.
16:29
Speaker 1: I mean even industry experts when we showed a picture
16:32
Speaker 1: of the RAPT three said that engine is not complete.
16:35
Speaker 1: So then we said, well, here's the engine not complete,
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Speaker 1: firing at a level of efficiency that has never been
16:42
Speaker 1: achieved before. So I mean that is one clean engine.
16:59
Speaker 1: So in order to the engine like that, we had
17:01
Speaker 1: to simplify so many parts of the design incorporate secondary
17:06
Speaker 1: fluid circuits and electronics in the structure of the engine itself,
17:10
Speaker 1: so everything is contained and protected. It is a marvel
17:15
Speaker 1: of engineering. Frankly. Then one of the other technologies that's
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Speaker 1: key for MARS is doing orbital propellant transfer. So you
17:31
Speaker 1: can think of this like similar to aerial refueling for airplanes,
17:36
Speaker 1: but in this case it's orbital refilling of rockets, which
17:41
Speaker 1: has never been done before. But it is, you know,
17:44
Speaker 1: technically feasible. I always feel like these things are a
17:52
Speaker 1: little NSFW sort of Listen, you've got to trans for
18:00
Speaker 1: food somehow, there's no this has got to be done.
18:06
Speaker 1: So the two starships would get together and one starship
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Speaker 1: would transfer fuel an oxygen, and actually most of the
18:19
Speaker 1: masses oxygen. It's almost eighty percent oxygen that gets transferred
18:23
Speaker 1: a little over twenty percent fuel and and so on.
18:27
Speaker 1: You so you'd send a starship to orbit with that's
18:31
Speaker 1: full of payload, and then you send up a bunch
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Speaker 1: of other starships up and you would refill the propellant
18:36
Speaker 1: on that starship, and once the propellant tanks are mostly full,
18:41
Speaker 1: then you can depart for the Mars, for Mars or
18:43
Speaker 1: the Moon or Yeah. So this is an important technology
18:48
Speaker 1: which we should hopefully demonstrate next year. Yeah, with the
19:02
Speaker 1: one of the toughest problems to solve is the reusable
19:05
Speaker 1: heat shield. So no, no one has ever developed a
19:11
Speaker 1: truly reusable orbital heat shield, so that it's extremely difficult
19:15
Speaker 1: to do so. Even the Shuttle Shuttle's heat shield required
19:20
Speaker 1: several months of refurbishment basically fixing broken tiles, testing each
19:26
Speaker 1: tile and because it's an extremely hard problem to be
19:31
Speaker 1: able to withstand the extreme heat and pressure of re entry,
19:37
Speaker 1: and the only things that can really withstand this level
19:41
Speaker 1: of heat are advanced sort of ceramics kind of you know,
19:49
Speaker 1: basically glass, aluminum, sometimes of carbon carbon, but very very
19:57
Speaker 1: little actually can survive the and with reusability, without getting
20:02
Speaker 1: without eroding or falling off or cracking, can survive the
20:07
Speaker 1: stresses of re entry. So this will be the first
20:11
Speaker 1: time that it's done. That that that a reusable orbital
20:15
Speaker 1: heat shield is developed and it needs to be obviously
20:18
Speaker 1: extremely reliable. So this will this will be something that
20:24
Speaker 1: will be working on for a few years. I think
20:26
Speaker 1: to keep honing the heat shield. It's it's a very
20:31
Speaker 1: it's it's it is an achievable thing. So we're not
20:32
Speaker 1: trying to do something that isn't achievable. It is within
20:35
Speaker 1: the realm of physics to get this done. Just an
20:37
Speaker 1: extraordinarily difficult thing to get done. And Marsh the Mars
20:43
Speaker 1: atmosphere is carbon dioxide, which at first may seem better,
20:48
Speaker 1: but actually it ends up being worse because it when
20:52
Speaker 1: the CO two turns into a plasma and you've got
20:56
Speaker 1: you actually end up with more free oxygen entering on
21:00
Speaker 1: a Mars atmosphere then on earth atmosphere. So Earth's atmosphere
21:03
Speaker 1: is only around twenty percent oxygen and Mars ends up
21:10
Speaker 1: being basically more than double that. Maybe trouble that when
21:13
Speaker 1: you consider when the CO two becomes a plasma and
21:17
Speaker 1: and you get carbon and O two, so that wants
21:21
Speaker 1: to oxidize the heat shield, basically burn the heat shield.
21:25
Speaker 1: So that's why we we test it very regular orgorously
21:28
Speaker 1: in a CO two atmosphere, because it's got to work
21:31
Speaker 1: not just for Earth but also for Mars, and we
21:40
Speaker 1: want to we want to use the same heat shield
21:42
Speaker 1: for Earth that we use for Mars, because there are
21:44
Speaker 1: many other factors with the heat shield, such as making
21:48
Speaker 1: sure the tiles don't crack or fall off or anything
21:50
Speaker 1: like that. So we want to have the same heat
21:53
Speaker 1: shield structure, same material on Earth as on Mars, so
21:57
Speaker 1: we can test it hundreds of times on Earth before
22:01
Speaker 1: going to Mars and be confident that when it goes
22:03
Speaker 1: to Mars it will work. So we're developing some next
22:24
Speaker 1: generation starships which are have a number of improvements versus
22:30
Speaker 1: our carrent Gent, so it's toller, for example, and has
22:37
Speaker 1: a better it are kind of a the interstage between
22:42
Speaker 1: the ship and the booster. You can see that sort
22:44
Speaker 1: of the sort of struts there that makes it easier
22:49
Speaker 1: for the flame like they're right there when doing hot staging,
22:54
Speaker 1: which is when we light the ship's engines while the
22:57
Speaker 1: booster's engines are still firing the floor I aim from
23:00
Speaker 1: the from the ship engines can more easily exit through
23:04
Speaker 1: the the open struts of the of the new interstage,
23:09
Speaker 1: and this case will bring the struts interstage back with
23:14
Speaker 1: us instead of throwing it away. So a little more
23:22
Speaker 1: height here seventy two meters from around sixty nine repellent capacity.
23:29
Speaker 1: I think we'll probably push that up a little, maybe
23:31
Speaker 1: thirty seven hundred tons. Long term, my guesses were maybe
23:37
Speaker 1: around four thousand tons, and but just sort of just
23:41
Speaker 1: over eight you know, sort of eight thousand, probably like
23:46
Speaker 1: eight thousand three. This will keep getting up. My guess
23:49
Speaker 1: is ultimately we're four thousand tons here, close to ten
23:53
Speaker 1: thousand tons of thrust. But this is kind of the
23:55
Speaker 1: next the next level or the next version of the
23:59
Speaker 1: super Heavy. So the booster will look a little naked
24:06
Speaker 1: on the bottom because the rafter of three engines don't
24:09
Speaker 1: require heat shield, so it looked like it looks like
24:12
Speaker 1: there's kind of parts missing, but that's just because the
24:15
Speaker 1: rafter heat shield does not the rafter three does not
24:20
Speaker 1: need a heat shield, so it's just it's just standing there.
24:25
Speaker 1: They're in a bathed in flaming plasma. But it's a
24:35
Speaker 1: lot lighter, yep, integrated hot stage. I think it looks amazing.
24:49
Speaker 1: Then the shifts a little a little more, a little longer,
24:52
Speaker 1: and more capable moving to fifteen and fifty tons of
24:57
Speaker 1: propelling capacity. My guess is this probably ends up twenty
25:02
Speaker 1: more than this long term. And yeah, you can see
25:09
Speaker 1: the heat shield is sleeker, so much smoother boundaries as
25:16
Speaker 1: as the boundary of the heat shield going to the
25:20
Speaker 1: leeward side is very smooth, no more jagged tiles. I
25:29
Speaker 1: think it looks very sleek. So and this version we
25:38
Speaker 1: still have six engines, but a future version will have nine,
25:42
Speaker 1: but with the raft of three again we have improved
25:48
Speaker 1: reduced mass, higher specific impulse. It's this is the Starship
25:55
Speaker 1: Version three is really the the vote that is I
26:02
Speaker 1: think achieves all of the key elements. I mean generally
26:05
Speaker 1: with any new technology, it takes three major, three major
26:09
Speaker 1: iterations of any major of any new technology to have
26:12
Speaker 1: it really, really really work well. And this with Raptor
26:15
Speaker 1: three and Starship and Booster version three, it should be
26:20
Speaker 1: able to achieve all of the things that I just mentioned,
26:22
Speaker 1: which is a rapidly reusable, reliable rocket with orbital refilling,
26:29
Speaker 1: basically all of the ingredients necessary to make life multiplanetary
26:34
Speaker 1: will be achieved with version three of Starship, which we're
26:37
Speaker 1: aiming to launch for the first time at the end
26:39
Speaker 1: of this year. Yeah, so you can see this is
26:52
Speaker 1: kind of where things are on the left, where things
26:55
Speaker 1: will be end of this year in the middle and
26:58
Speaker 1: as I was saying, kind of with will be probably
27:00
Speaker 1: long term, yeah, one hundred and forty two meters so,
27:09
Speaker 1: but the one in the middle is will be fully
27:12
Speaker 1: capable of doing Mars and thereafter will It'll be a
27:17
Speaker 1: lot of performance improvements and as as has been the
27:23
Speaker 1: case with the Falcon nine, we always end up making
27:26
Speaker 1: the rocket longer and increasing payload. So that's that's that's
27:33
Speaker 1: the game plan, pretty straightforward, but it's important to empa size.
27:37
Speaker 1: Even with the rocket that will be launching just at
27:40
Speaker 1: the end of this year, it will be capable of
27:42
Speaker 1: making life multiplanetary, and thereafter it's it's just about continuing
27:47
Speaker 1: to hone the efficiency and capability of the rocket and
27:51
Speaker 1: reduce the cost per ton, and reduce the cost per
27:53
Speaker 1: posting to Mars, and like I said, ultimately make its
27:56
Speaker 1: that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help
27:58
Speaker 1: build a new civilization can do so. So anyone out there, like,
28:05
Speaker 1: how cool will that would that be? And even if
28:07
Speaker 1: you don't want to do it, maybe that you have
28:10
Speaker 1: a son or daughter who wants to do that, or
28:13
Speaker 1: a friend who wants to do it, and I think
28:16
Speaker 1: it would be the adventure that the best adventure that
28:19
Speaker 1: it on it could possibly do is to go and
28:23
Speaker 1: help build a new civilization on a new planet. So yeah,
28:35
Speaker 1: ultimately we'll have forty two engines, which it was inevitable
28:42
Speaker 1: as the prophecy foretold by the great prophet Douglas Adams
28:48
Speaker 1: and his you know, book of the Hitchock's Guide to
28:53
Speaker 1: the Galaxy, the answer to the Meaning of life is
28:57
Speaker 1: forty two and so inevitably the starship stack will have
29:02
Speaker 1: forty two engines. And in terms of payload to orbit,
29:14
Speaker 1: what's remarkable is that it's two hundred tons of you know,
29:18
Speaker 1: Starship will have two hundred tons paler to orbit with
29:20
Speaker 1: full reusability. So this is twice the capability of the
29:24
Speaker 1: Saturn five Moon rocket. Saturn five Moon rocket was fully expendable. Uh,
29:30
Speaker 1: Starship is fully reusable. But we'll have twice the payload
29:33
Speaker 1: to orbit of the next biggest rocket that made it
29:37
Speaker 1: to orbit, which is a Saturn five. In fact, if
29:42
Speaker 1: without reusability, Starship would have about four hundred tons of
29:46
Speaker 1: palo to orbit. So this is a this is a
29:51
Speaker 1: very big rocket, is what I'm saying. So, but you
29:55
Speaker 1: need a big rocket, you know, the you know, make
29:59
Speaker 1: life multiplanetary. And then along the way we could do
30:02
Speaker 1: very cool things like have a moon base, like moon
30:06
Speaker 1: based Alpha. Long ago there was a TV show about
30:10
Speaker 1: moon based Alpha. You can't couldn't think about the physics
30:14
Speaker 1: of that too much because apparently, like the moon base
30:17
Speaker 1: was like drifting away from Earth. But anyway, we should
30:20
Speaker 1: have a moon based alpha, which is the next step
30:23
Speaker 1: after the Apollo program, would be to have a base
30:25
Speaker 1: on the Moon, so you could like you could have
30:27
Speaker 1: a like a gigantic you know, science station doing research
30:35
Speaker 1: about the nature of the universe on the Moon. Would
30:36
Speaker 1: be very cool. So in terms of like when can
30:42
Speaker 1: you go to Mars, So you can go to Mars
30:44
Speaker 1: every two years or every twenty six months. So the
30:49
Speaker 1: next Mars opportunity is at the end of next year,
30:51
Speaker 1: in about eighteen months, So November December is the next
30:54
Speaker 1: Mars opportunity. So we'll try to make that opportunity. If
30:57
Speaker 1: we get lucky. I think we'll probably have a fifty
30:58
Speaker 1: to fifty chance right now, because we've got to we've
31:02
Speaker 1: got to figure out orbital refilling in order to have
31:06
Speaker 1: enough capability to go to Mars. But if we achieve
31:09
Speaker 1: orbital refilling in time, then we will launch the first
31:13
Speaker 1: uncrewed starship to Mars at the end of next year.
31:17
Speaker 1: So this gives you an illustration of how does how
31:28
Speaker 1: does the spaceship go from Earth to Mars. So you've
31:30
Speaker 1: got blue Earth there and red Mars. And I mean
31:44
Speaker 1: the the actual distance traveled on the arc is close
31:48
Speaker 1: to it, like a thousand times further than the Moon.
31:53
Speaker 1: So you can't just go straight to Mars. You have
31:57
Speaker 1: to create this elliptical orbit with Earth at one point
32:00
Speaker 1: and Mars at the other side at the far end
32:03
Speaker 1: of the ellipse, and then time the time where you
32:07
Speaker 1: are in that and that ellipse to intersect with Mars
32:11
Speaker 1: and this so this is a the orbital transfer or
32:15
Speaker 1: how you do orbital transfer from Earth to Mars. And
32:18
Speaker 1: if you look on your starlink Wi Fi router, you'll
32:21
Speaker 1: see this image because the starlink Wi Fi is what
32:26
Speaker 1: is starling. Internet is what's being used to pay for
32:30
Speaker 1: humanity getting to Mars. So I'd just like to thank
32:33
Speaker 1: everyone out there who's bought Starlink because you're helping helping
32:38
Speaker 1: secure the future of civilization and helping make life multiple
32:41
Speaker 1: multiplanetary and helping make humanity a space baring civilization. Thank you.
32:54
Speaker 1: So this is a tentative game plan here where we're
32:58
Speaker 1: hoping to the hoping to achieve where we increase the
33:05
Speaker 1: cadence of flights to Mars dramatically with every launch window.
33:09
Speaker 1: So every every roughly two years, we are dramatically increasing
33:15
Speaker 1: the number of of ships that go to Mars and
33:19
Speaker 1: ultimately try to get to a thousand or two thousand ships.
33:24
Speaker 1: Uh you know per Mars rendezvous. The the I mean
33:33
Speaker 1: as a rough order manning two. There's just guesses obviously,
33:36
Speaker 1: but we need to get about a thou about about
33:38
Speaker 1: a million tons is my guess to the soaps of
33:41
Speaker 1: Mars to make a civilization or Mars self sustaining against
33:46
Speaker 1: that critical point where if the if the re supply
33:49
Speaker 1: ship's most stopped coming for any reason, Mars still succeeds,
33:53
Speaker 1: Mars can still grow. And so you can't be missing anything.
33:56
Speaker 1: You can't be missing even like the equivalent of vitamin
33:58
Speaker 1: C or anything. You've got to have everything you need
34:00
Speaker 1: for Mars to grow. That's that's essential. So my guess
34:05
Speaker 1: is that's about a million tons, but it might be
34:06
Speaker 1: ten million tons. I hope it's not one hundred million tons.
34:10
Speaker 1: That'd be a lot. But we want to try to
34:14
Speaker 1: get to that point and secure the future of civilization
34:16
Speaker 1: as quickly as possible, so we're looking at different locations.
34:24
Speaker 1: The lead candidate right now is the Arcadia region. So
34:30
Speaker 1: Mars has a lot of real estate. But when you
34:33
Speaker 1: combine all of the factors and say, okay, we need
34:35
Speaker 1: we can't be too close to the poles, we need
34:38
Speaker 1: to be near ice for for to get to get water,
34:43
Speaker 1: and can't be too mountainous for the rockets, then you
34:49
Speaker 1: it narrows down to a smaller region. So Arcadia is uh,
34:54
Speaker 1: it's one of my my daughter's the name is Arcadia
34:56
Speaker 1: actually is one of the options. So we got the
35:02
Speaker 1: first starships on Mars gather critical data. So the first
35:06
Speaker 1: the first flights there we'll send with the Optimist robot
35:10
Speaker 1: so we can go out there and explore and kind
35:12
Speaker 1: of prepare the way for humans and that'll be a
35:16
Speaker 1: very cool image if we're able to achieve it by
35:19
Speaker 1: launching and the next year would actually technically arrive in
35:21
Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven, but that would be an epic fixture
35:27
Speaker 1: to see Optimists walking around on the surface of Mars.
35:34
Speaker 1: And then with the launching two years later, we would
35:39
Speaker 1: be sending humans. Seeing the first missions are successful and
35:43
Speaker 1: they land successfully, would send humans on the next mission,
35:47
Speaker 1: and we'll really start building the infrastructure for Mars. So anyway,
35:53
Speaker 1: might maybe just to be safe and we might just
35:55
Speaker 1: do two landing episodes with the Optimists and do the
36:00
Speaker 1: third one with humans. We'll see that classic picture of
36:06
Speaker 1: the workers on the Empire state. And then for communications
36:15
Speaker 1: on Mars, we'll be using a motion of Starling to
36:18
Speaker 1: provide Internet on Mars. Yeah, so the speed of light,
36:35
Speaker 1: even moving up the speed of light, your best case
36:37
Speaker 1: scenario is I guess Rik around three and a half
36:40
Speaker 1: minutes to Mars and then worst cases twenty two minutes
36:46
Speaker 1: or more. Because Mars is on the other side of
36:48
Speaker 1: the Sun from Earth. So anyway, it's quite challenging to
36:55
Speaker 1: do high bandwidth communications with Mars, but Starling will achieve that. Yeah,
37:03
Speaker 1: and then we'll have the first humans laid the groundwork
37:05
Speaker 1: for permanent presence on the surface. And yeah, the goal,
37:11
Speaker 1: like I said, will be to make Mars self sustaining
37:14
Speaker 1: as quickly as possible. It's just a sort of rough
37:23
Speaker 1: idea of what things will be like for the first
37:25
Speaker 1: city on Mars. My guess is we'll probably put the
37:28
Speaker 1: launch pads a little further away or the landing pads
37:32
Speaker 1: just in case. But ian four Mars, we're going to
37:37
Speaker 1: need a lot of solar power, will be you know,
37:42
Speaker 1: since you you can't really walk around on the surface
37:45
Speaker 1: of Mars, at least as yet, until Mars is terror
37:48
Speaker 1: formed to be like Earth, you need to walk around
37:52
Speaker 1: worth a Marris suit and be you know, initially in
37:56
Speaker 1: kind of like glass domes. But it would work and
38:01
Speaker 1: eventually we can make Mars into an earth like planet.
38:08
Speaker 1: We want to get to the point where we're transferring
38:11
Speaker 1: over a million tons at every Mars transfer window, and
38:16
Speaker 1: then that's like a serious civilization, a mega ton for
38:21
Speaker 1: transfer window. So yeah, I have a lot of space ports,
38:31
Speaker 1: I mean, because of the fact that you can't fly
38:34
Speaker 1: there continuously and you have to transfer in these windows.
38:37
Speaker 1: You'd have a gathering of a thousand ships or two
38:40
Speaker 1: thousand ships or more than that. So we look to
38:43
Speaker 1: have this kind of like Battlestar Glactica Fiel where all
38:45
Speaker 1: these ships are in orbit, went need to depart and uh,
38:48
Speaker 1: and then they all depart. I look at I think
38:54
Speaker 1: an amazing image of all these ships departing at once.
38:57
Speaker 1: And then you're gonna need obviously a lot of launch pads,
39:00
Speaker 1: a lot of landing pads on Mars are you'll need
39:03
Speaker 1: to move the ships off the landing pad pretty fast.
39:09
Speaker 1: So if you get it, you've got to I don't know,
39:11
Speaker 1: a few thousand ships inbound, probably need at least a
39:15
Speaker 1: few hundred pads and landing pads. And anyway, we'll solve
39:23
Speaker 1: that problem later. So yeah, anyway, this is this is
39:31
Speaker 1: like an incredible thing to have, like this amazing city
39:34
Speaker 1: on Mars, the first city on another planet and a
39:44
Speaker 1: new world. And it's also an opportunity to, I think,
39:50
Speaker 1: for the Martians to rethink how they want civilization to be,
39:57
Speaker 1: so you can maybe rethink, like what kind of form
39:59
Speaker 1: of government do you want, what new rules do you
40:02
Speaker 1: want to have. There's a lot of freedom and opportunity
40:06
Speaker 1: in Mars to do a recompile on civilization, which will
40:11
Speaker 1: be up to the Martians. So all right, let's get
40:18
Speaker 1: it done. Thank you everyone,