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Eye On Politics · Newsradio WGAN

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  Wednesdays at this time, we get an opportunity to speak with our
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  Eye on Politics team. And joining us now on the phone
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  as usual, is Eric Lusk. And we also have Keith Mestrich
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  with us as well. And this will be the last
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  appearance for Keith because BJ is coming back next week and
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  we've missed him sorely. But Keith, you've been doing a
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  wonderful job. Thank you very much for plugging
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  in. Gentlemen, Welcome both.
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  Nice to have you here. Welcome.
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  Thanks. Heath, we we have some some
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  parting gifts for you, a couple of coffee mugs, maybe a visor.
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  You know what? What size golf jersey do you
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  like Matt? Matt wants to know so we can go
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  hit the stash. Eric, I can only imagine you
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  have some some really special surprises for me.
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  We have a lot of coffee mugs, I can say that.
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  Maybe a a a Russell Wilson football jersey from the Denver
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  Broncos that I paid 4 bucks for. Oh yeah.
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  I was thinking and I, I, I was thinking AT shirt that said
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  bring back the Reagan years. Maybe it would be something that
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  you'd like to give me? I think he's got enough of
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  those, yeah. I I did find some less otten for
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  governor hats from 2010. Worth all of 11 cents.
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  I'm surprised they didn't make their way down to sub-Saharan
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  Africa. So guys, let's talk a little bit
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  about where we are right now. And Keith, I'd actually like to
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  start with you here since you won't be able to join us next
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  week. I'm going to ask Eric for his
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  predictions next week because next Wednesday will be right
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  before the primary, obviously. And I'd like to get kind of a
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  sense now as we come to the home stretch, the closing moments
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  here of the campaign for governor on in both parties.
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  What do you think is going to happen?
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  I think since last we spoke, there was the announcement of
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  this alliance within the Democratic Party between Shanna
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  Bellows, Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson.
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  So they're all recommending each other as second and third
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  choicers to try to, I guess, prevent Nerve Shah from winning.
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  What say you about that alliance and what do you think is going
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  to happen, Keith? So predictions here, as we've
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  talked about the last couple weeks are, are, are really hard.
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  All the, all the variables, ranked choice, I don't know how
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  people figure out how to do ranked choice with five, let
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  alone 7 people. And the thing it's how do you
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  figure out how to actually vote? It's very complicated.
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  Independents being able to vote in the election, no idea how
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  many people are, are, are doing that.
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  If that happens, that's something that probably
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  benefits, you know, candidates like Sean King, I would think.
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  I'm not sure the alliance is makes sense.
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  It feels to me like that may actually divide those second and
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  third votes amongst people. I unclear.
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  I, I have no idea who's going to win the Democratic race.
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  Here's my only prediction. It goes at least three rounds
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  before we know we don't know who the victor is 2 weeks from
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  yesterday in the Democratic Party.
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  But as I've said before, that party will the party will rally
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  very quickly around the candidate and you'll see all
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  four candidates who do not prevail getting behind find on
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  the victor. And I think Jonathan Bush is
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  going to win the Republican nomination.
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  I think he's surging. I think Bobby Charles is running
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  out of money. I don't think anybody else has
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  emerged here. And I, I, I think it's going to
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  be a Bush Bennett and an unknown candidate in the general
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  election. May I ask a follow up about the
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  Democratic primary and your contention that they'll quickly
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  close ranks and support the victor?
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  I tend to agree with that obviously, because I think
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  that's what Democrats have done historically a lot, especially
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  recently. I do wonder though, if say Nirv
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  Shaw just I'm, you know, get a game out of scenario here, like
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  let's say Nirv Shaw ends up getting like 38% of the vote or
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  whatever, 40% of the vote and somehow ends up losing because
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  of this alliance or something where, you know, somebody who
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  even is in like third place or something ends up winning.
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  Well, do you think there would be any grumbling, any animosity,
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  Any maybe not challenge necessarily, but any bad taste
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  in the mouth that comes from someone who lost winning?
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  Be some of that, but it will all be in the background it will all
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  be buried very very quickly. I I think the Democratic Party
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  here is very aligned with wanting to maintain Blaine House
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  as long as Donald Trump is the president and I think the party
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  is very clear that that's the priority.
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  The candidates are very close on a number of their policy
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  positions. They genuinely like each other
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  been to a number of the debates. They despite some of the
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  hustling that's going on in the last day's elections, they
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  genuinely like each other. They're generally forward of
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  each other. I I don't think you'll see that.
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  OK. Eric Lusk, I don't want you to
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  make your predictions yet because we want to save those
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  for next week. However, if you want to give me
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  a general sense of what you think of the Alliance and what
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  you think of Keith's overall analysis of things, that would
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  be certainly a good question. So let's go there.
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  Let's not forget, among the Democrats who are running to be
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  the governor or the at least the Democratic representative in the
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  general election, all of them are in and out of government
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  morning, noon and night for day jobs.
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  So there isn't a whole lot of value for Angus King, the 3rd,
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  to lay into Nirav Shah. If he's looking to get a job in
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  the Shah administration down the road, there's not a lot of
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  benefit for Hannah Pingree to go after Angus King.
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  If he were to win, she'd want a job in the King administration.
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  So you've you've got an awful lot of hands washing one
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  another. And I think that is going to go
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  a long way to keep the acrimony down because they're all looking
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  for jobs at the end of the election season.
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  If a Democrat, if the Democrats keep the Blaine House.
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  It's a little incestuous. But here we are over on the
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  Republican side of the aisle. Ain't no way on God's green
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  earth some of these people would want to work in a competitor's
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  administration if they were to lose the primary and Bobby
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  Charles were to win the general election, Jonathan Bush were to
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  win. These guys have got their own
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  businesses for the most part, and they don't want to be a
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  second banana in somebody else's administration.
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  And that goes a long way to explain how it is that you may
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  not have the voters for a particular candidate interested
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  in coming on board with the winner of a primary because the
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  person they voted for as #1 is not looking to get a job with
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  the administration of somebody who won the nomination and then
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  eventually the general. Election.
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  So this is sort of related to questions about predictions and
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  whatnot, but we did have the latest Pan Atlantic survey come
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  out last week and the results of that were curious.
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  You know, Eric, let me stick with you for this question.
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  You know, the Republican field had Bobby Charles leading again.
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  So that would be like the eight thousandth survey I've seen that
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  has him leading in some fashion. But I had I had in second place
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  Jonathan Bush. And Jonathan Bush, when you get
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  the rank choice voting thing, cooking was actually only like 5
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  or 6 down from Charles too. So in terms of Keith's, you
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  know, analysis that he may be surging, if you believe that
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  poll, that may be true. But one of the more curious
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  things I saw in that poll was Ben Midgley at 2%.
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  I don't really think that's right.
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  I don't think that's credible. But he has been up to this point
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  sort of viewed as maybe the second second hand guy, the the
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  alternative to Bobby Charles, maybe the guy that that might
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  end up emerging as the consensus choice if you're a non Charles
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  person, etcetera. And this poll says that he's
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  like behind David Jones, right? So what do you think of that
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  poll? Eric Luskin, what do you think
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  is the true state of play as of today in that primary?
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  I don't think Republican voters respond to polls much at all at
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  this point. And I probably will get 7 or 8
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  phone calls from an 888 or a seven O 3 area code out of
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  Fairfax, VA looking to pull me. And you know, dear listener, how
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  many times a day do you get asked to provide a poll or to
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  opt out of receiving any more text messages?
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  I don't think anybody is really in a position to be able to say,
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  yeah, we did a faithful job of polling Republicans and we
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  really know what we're talking about on this particular
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  election. So when Susan Collins was never
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  polling ahead of Sarah Gideon six years ago, and yet she won
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  by, was it eight points, 7 points, why should I believe the
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  polls? And there always seems to be
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  this surprise on the part of Democrats when they get the
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  general election long wrong because they've been in their
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  own echo chamber for too long. So I don't really know what to
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  make of that particular poll as having any sort of reliability.
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  I can say that who wins the the main GOP state convention straw
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  poll is also not a particularly good indicator because Mary
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  Mayhew won the straw poll in I think it was 2018, and then she
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  came in third in the primary. So we've we've got some problems
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  here when it comes to be able to pull the Republican side of the
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  aisle. I guess the same goes back to
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  you, Keith, related to that poll, you know, what you saw
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  there in the Democratic side was Nershaw with the lead.
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  And interestingly enough, it looked like Bellows was a little
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  bit lower than I I would have expected her to be.
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  And it was a little bit shuffled.
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  I mean, Angus King was in second place.
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  You know, that's obviously a name ID thing.
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  I thought that we were done with that a few months ago.
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  What did you make of what you saw in that poll?
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  So, so a couple of things. One thing just on, on your
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  comment on Midgely, I, I agree with that.
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  I, I have to believe Midgely's polling better than 2%.
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  And I would put him up in the, in, in my sense, as I'd put him
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  up in the upper echelon of candidates and in the Republican
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  Party to, to win the nomination on the Democratic side.
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  I, I just a couple of observations. 1 is, is, is it
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  has remained fairly split amongst the the five candidates
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  across all of the polling. I'll dismiss the the polls that
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  the candidates themselves put out and, and try and go to the
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  Pan Atlantic or the UNH polls and, and, and stay focused on
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  that. I'll just a couple of
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  observations. One is that the, the king has
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  actually been in #2 in most of these polls and, and if it's
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  name recognition or what, but it's been consistent.
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  I don't know what that means, but it's, it's been, it's been
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  consistent. 2 I don't know how much given that independence can
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  vote in this election, I don't know how much of this polling is
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  including independence in this. I read the methodologist poll.
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  I couldn't figure out if they were putting independence into
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  the, into the survey of, of, of, of the Democrats or the
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  Republicans for that matter, or, or not.
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  So I don't know what impact that may have.
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  I have also no idea how many independents will vote in this
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  election since it's the first time they can they can vote in a
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  primary. And then and then third, I do
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  think one of the things here that makes this polling suspect,
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  and here's where I'll agree with Eric on this, is that I am
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  surprised at how little emphasis and focus I think Maine voters
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  have had on this election really until just now.
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  And so whatever polling is out there, I don't know how how
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  accurate it is because I think a lot of people are making their
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  choicing choices now in in my discussions out talking to
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  Lincoln County Democrats, where I'm most familiar with, very few
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  people have voted early. And so I think people are
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  holding back and, and waiting until Election Day to actually
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  vote. And I think a lot of people are
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  still making up their minds. Not only their minds are who
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  they're going to vote first, but importantly in this election,
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  who they're going to vote for a second.
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  Let's sort of use that poll as a nice little way of sliding into
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  the US Senate race to Eric brought up and mentioned the
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  prior polling from prior years. Obviously, this poll showing
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  Graham Plattner with a rather substantial lead actually over
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  Susan Collins. Back to you, Eric, for a moment
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  here. Certainly.
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  Tell me about what you view that poll as saying.
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  In reality, you kind of already alluded to the fact that you
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  don't really necessarily trust it.
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  But you know, Graham Plattner had a weird week last week, and
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  he was on the cover of Time magazine.
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  He also had a number of repeated scandals from his old Reddit
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  days cropping their way back up again here.
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  What do you think is actually true and what is not true about
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  our observations in that U.S. Senate race?
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  How strong is Plattner? That one's for you, Eric.
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  When if if the Democrats find Donald Trump offensive and brash
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  and, you know, prone to making all sorts of outrageous
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  statement statements that the DNC has now come around to the
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  idea. Hold my beer, watch this.
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  Have we got a guy for you? And his name is Graham Plattner.
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  So the polling that should be done to figure out how this
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  election is going to come down would be don't bother asking the
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  Democrats. They've made their deal.
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  They they know it's OK to go ahead and run with Graham
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  Platner. Who thinks that the Mother Mary
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  is a skank? Oh, you know, pick pick your
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  outrageous comment by Plattner that you like best.
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  But how much polling of people who are going to vote in the
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  Senate race is of independence across the state in numbers that
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  are realistic based on representation of each
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  particular county? If your poll doesn't have good
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  crosstabs on that particular group of people who are going to
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  be voting, because let's face it, it's going to be the
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  independent voter that decides the outcome of that race, we can
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  count on the Democrats reliably 80 or 90% to vote for Plattner.
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  On the Republican side, it's going to be 80 or 90% who are
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  going to vote for Collins. Where does the swing voter
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  independent come down? That's the polling that is going
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  to be meaningful and absent good crosstabs on those age groups,
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  will vote. Will not vote, Maybe vote.
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  You don't really have an accurate depiction of how the
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  outcome is going. To go and back over to you,
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  Keith. the US Senate race, Graham Plattner in his weird
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  week. What's really going on there?
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  Tell me more. Eric's right, it's the
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  independents who are going to decide this election and how
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  they, how they react to all this.
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  I, I do think there's one other factor though there.
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  I think there's, I think there are LePage Plattner voters and
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  I, I think that's that there. And I think there's more of them
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  you think and, and, and that he is real, his support is real in
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  the Democratic Party. It is, it is strong.
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  It is, it is out there and it is pretty, it is pretty fierce and
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  it reaches beyond the party into some of the people who voted for
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  Donald Trump for the reasons that they voted for.
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  Donald Trump is sort of being an outsider who is really ready and
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  prepared to take on the system and the elite and all the things
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  that Plattner talks about and many of the things that Trump
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  talked about. So I think there is that factor.
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  But this will come down to independence and how they how
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  they react to all this. And there are two unbelievably
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  strong forces that I think we're going to see in this election.
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  And 1 is very, very strong desire, hugely motivated desire
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  to take back the United States Senate and to and to vote Susan
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  Collins out of out of office. That is, that is a Rolling
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  Thunder of enthusiasm and, and support and, and it will
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  overcome many of the issues that some people might have about
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  Graham Platner and some of his and some of his issues.
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  Because that is such a motivating force on the
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  Democratic side that I think will propel not only to Eric's
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  .80 or 90% people voting for the Democratic candidate, but super
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  high turn out in the, in the election.
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  And I, I, I think while independents are important, what
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  is the participation rate by Democrats?
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  And I think it's going to be very, very high.
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  In the remaining time that we have here, I'll go.
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  I'll keep you, Keith, for a second here and maybe ask you
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  this next question and then we'll wrap with Eric maybe about
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  a minute and a half each for you guys on this one.
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  But last night, Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn handily.
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  That was actually a skunking in the end here, which is likely
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  due, of course, to the endorsement from Trump.
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  What does that mean for both the Texas U.S.
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  Senate race as well as the overall control of the body, the
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  US Senate itself? What do you say, Keith?
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  Yeah. So we talked about this a little
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  bit last week. So first of all, I was surprised
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  by how the margin it was. Much bigger.
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  Than I thought it was, was, was going to be.
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  But again, I think here in Texas, Texas is now in play.
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  I think the Republicans will have to spend a lot more money
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  than they wanted to to defend that seat.
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  That will drain resources from other places.
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  It changes the Senate map on the Senate becomes all of a sudden
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  incredibly interesting to watch. I think if we were talking about
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  this six months ago, we would have thought it was impossible
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  for Democrats to take back the Senate.
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  I don't think that's the case now.
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  I think Paxton makes Talarico's bid for that seat viable.
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  And I think there's a real chance Democrats could take that
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  seat in Texas again. I think they'll be huge
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  motivation on the Democratic base to turn out and vote.
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  And you'll see more Democrats voting in Texas than maybe we've
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  seen in a very, very long time. And I think that drains
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  resources from other places and puts places like Iowa and North
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  Carolina and other places much more in play.
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  So it's a, it's a, it's a really important election outcome.
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  All right, And over to you, Eric Lusk in about a minute or so.
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  What say you? There was the release of the
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  Democrat Party's autopsy of the 2024 election.
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  And the problem that they seem to be able to isolate on was
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  simply that the message of the Democrat Party wasn't spoken
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  often and hard and loud enough by Joe Biden and then by but by
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  the Kamala Harris campaign of 107 days.
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  But I think the Democrats are missing the point here with that
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  particular autopsy when they come back with somebody like a
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  taller Rico. Taller Rico is now a moderate in
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  the Democrat Party. He thinks there are only 6
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  genders among humanity instead of 72.
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  That is now a Democrat moderate. And I think what you're seeing
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  here is if Ken Paxton is a problem for the Republicans,
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  then his best solution is to have a candidate such as James
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  Talarico. I don't.
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  That's why I got to cut you off, Eric, because we're up against
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  the clock. When I say a minute, I mean it.
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  Thanks a lot, Keith. Appreciate it.