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Episode 420 - 12/22/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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  Hello and welcome to. Episode 4. 20 of the all
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  systems. Go sports betting podcast.
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  Powered by rhythm, I am your host.
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  Josh. Applebaum What's going on?
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  Everyone happy? Monday a new.
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  Week begins, guys. It's officially.
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  Christmas week. That's right, just a couple.
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  More days here 1. 2-3 more days if I can do the math right.
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  Yeah, it's the 22nd. Christmas is the 25th.
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  So there's only a few more days before Santa comes, you know,
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  rifling down the chimney and make sure you leave a couple
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  cookies out for them. Also celebrated the last night
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  of Hanukkah last night, yes. As I told you before, I'm one of
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  those kids. You hated.
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  In elementary school because I got both Christmas.
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  Gifts and Hanukkah gifts. Although let me just say, I look
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  back at my mom now. Every night of Hanukkah, we got
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  a gift. But like people don't realize
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  like usually it's. Small things like, you know.
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  One night I would get. Something I don't know, like an
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  action figure or. Maybe it would be a.
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  Book you know, you're not getting like, you know massive
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  things every single night but. Either way, I was.
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  One of those kids you didn't like because I got to celebrate
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  both holidays. But why do I say this?
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  Of course it is Christmas week, but I'll just.
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  Give you guys. Just a reminder here.
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  If you are. Scrambling.
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  And I know there's a few of you out there listening who are
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  scrambling for gifts. What do I get my dad?
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  I have no clue. What do I get?
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  My son? My cousin?
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  My colleague? I don't know.
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  You got a Christmas party, you know a white.
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  Elephant or a Yankee? Swap whatever you call it.
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  Coming up. For, I don't know, Tuesday.
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  Or today or tomorrow at work. We don't.
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  You should do. Make it easy on yourself.
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  Give that gift for someone in your life.
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  That they can hopefully use. To then make more money and buy
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  more. Gifts for themselves, which
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  would be. My new book The NFL.
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  Sharp betting playbook so I want to give you guys a shout out.
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  Ever since the holidays, I would say probably the first week in.
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  December I have seen a big increase.
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  In my book sales it's pretty cool I get to log.
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  Into an author portal, I get to see all my sales.
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  Every single. Week whether it's you know.
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  In person or online or the Kindle version Audio.
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  Book, audio book, or whatever the case may be.
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  And I saw a big jump. Here for the holiday season.
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  So I know you guys are buying them and hopefully that person
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  who. Receives it.
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  They'll be like. Oh, nice.
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  It's not a flannel shirt. It's not another pair of socks.
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  Even though it's not, you know, those are important.
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  Some clean underwear, of course. Or boxers.
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  Whatever. Whatever you're dealing with
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  here. Or bathrobe.
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  Again. But you know what you could do?
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  You can get them the. Everything guide to sports
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  betting my first book the NFL sharp betting playbook you.
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  Can get both from Amazon. And if you do it today or even
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  tomorrow, it should arrive for Christmas.
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  So just want to say thank you to everyone who has bought a
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  stocking stuffer in the form. Of a sports betting book.
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  By yours. Truly.
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  Or maybe you're. Scrambling.
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  You want to get. It.
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  It will come in time. If you get it in today.
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  So thank you all for that. But anyway, as we enter into
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  Christmas. Week just want to remind
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  everyone but we will have Monday Night Football here for tonight
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  so very. Much excited for that, I do.
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  Have a Monday Night Football play for you?
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  The Colts and the 40. Niners, that line is moving.
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  We talked about this. Play last week so.
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  Sitting pretty here, let's. Get some.
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  CLV, let's get a winner. Here and then I also.
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  Have an NFL futures bet for you? Because I'll be honest with you,
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  I was looking at and I. Pretty much every other day or
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  every day. Look at the futures.
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  Because I want to hold on on to something, you know, hopefully
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  that can build our bankroll over time, like for example.
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  Over the weekend I had put into the.
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  Juice real app way before. The season started the Eagles.
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  -170. To win the NFC East.
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  That cashed on on Sunday. Cashed yesterday, so actually
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  Saturday when they played that game.
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  Although I wasn't. Happy because I had commanders
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  plus 7 and they were. Hanging tough until they got
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  blown out in the fourth quarter. But anyway, I like those little
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  bankroll. Builders so I.
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  Hopefully have a bankroll. Builder for you guys today.
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  Is it MVP Offensive Defensive Rookie of the Year?
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  Coach of the Year comeback. Player again, wait and see cuz I
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  do. Have a play here.
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  And a pretty. Nice plus money payout that I
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  think. Has a path to victory, so we're
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  going to talk. 49ers Colts for tonight, one play on the game
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  and then one NFL future now. Looking back toward the weekend,
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  guys, decent, I would say decent. 2:00 and 1:00 on
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  Saturday had Miami plus 3 1/2. Love that because if you
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  noticed, public was all over Texas A&M as we had talked
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  about. But Miami fell from 3 1/2, some
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  shops even down to 3 or even 2 1/2.
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  So it was a very clear indicator that that smart money was
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  breaking. Toward us in the you.
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  Got it done winning outright 10 to 3 game I.
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  Wish she took the under there too.
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  And then NFL had a great. Hit with the.
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  Bears. Unbelievable.
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  My heart was pounding. Just incredible.
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  As the Chicago Bears. Found a way to claw back.
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  And I'm like, really, You know, we have Jordan Love.
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  And apologies to my guy Willie Tomlinson, who's a big Packers
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  fan. Sharpest guy in Wisconsin.
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  But Jordan Love gets hurt. And Willis comes in, and Willis
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  is. Lighting up the bears, I'm like,
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  are we really? Going to lose to Malik.
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  Willis Well, thank the Lord, but man, something, something about
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  the Bears. I don't know what it is.
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  But they they look terrible. Pretty much all game.
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  Can't do anything offensively, then they score, then they
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  convert an on sides kick, then they get to overtime.
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  Cairo Santos made some incredible.
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  Kicks. It was really, really windy.
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  That was a windy. Underplay I wrote about for the
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  Sharp report for visen.com and they're able to win that thing
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  on a deep. Bomb to DJ Moore in overtime.
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  So great hit there with the Bears.
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  Remember that was a. Dog to fave money line play.
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  Lost the Commanders as I mentioned.
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  So two and one Saturday with Miami and the Bears yesterday.
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  It was frustrating. O2 and One.
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  Hopefully you guys. Push the giants plus three
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  because they were +3, 2 1/2. I put the three in.
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  I tried to mention the sharp report again.
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  Shop around. There was a book or. 2 giving
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  you the key number, and that's the importance of a key number.
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  Because if you got Giants. +3 they lose 16 to 13 you push.
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  You get the 2 1/2 you. Lose so the importance.
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  Of getting that key number. But then the two.
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  Annoying ones were the Cowboys. Again, I was a little wary
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  because that line got down to one.
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  It was around 1 1/2 down to 1, but it was very clear public was
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  hammering Chargers. Dallas was in a pretty good
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  spot. Buy low, sell high.
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  You might again. We always talk.
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  About the Cowboys, we don't like them when they're.
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  Popular and people are. Loving them, but when they're
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  unpopular, usually they're a smart bet.
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  Well, they had a lead at one point and then just got blown
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  out 34 to 17. So that was annoying.
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  And then the other frustrating game was the Miami Dolphins,
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  because if you noticed, holding Dolphins plus 4 1/2 or maybe got
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  a four, but 4 1/2 was when we talked about on the pod.
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  At the end of last. Week they closed at 3 1/2, so we
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  did our part. Beat the closing line, Predicted
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  that late move perfectly, got some CLV.
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  And they lost 45 to 21. So again.
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  Sometimes that's going to happen.
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  But either way, guys kind of scratching and clawing over the
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  weekend. Let's see if we can.
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  Kick off our Christmas week on hot Note.
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  Here with Monday Night Football. So that being said, let's waste
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  no more time. We got a Monday football game
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  here to talk about and then I'm going to give you my.
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  Futures bet because it's near. And dear to my heart, intent.
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  But anyway, 49ers, Colts. 8:15 PM.
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  Eastern Time tonight on ESPN. Let's set the stage.
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  Talk line movement, split system matches, rhythm and juice reel
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  angles. And then I'll give you the
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  official play here. So 49ers come in 10 and four
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  playing pretty well. They've won four straight.
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  Just beat the Titans. 37 to 20. Four they covered as a. 12 1/2
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  point home favorite. On the other hand, the Colts 8
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  and six, remember they were great, I think.
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  What do they start 8 you know. But they've dropped.
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  Four in a row. Just lost to the Seahawks 18 to
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  16 and. Rivers return, but they did
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  cover that game as a. 12 1/2 point Rd. dog so.
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  What have we seen across the market here?
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  Well, this game it opened around. 49ers -5 1/2 on the
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  road, so a 5 1/2 point. Road.
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  Favorite and why is that 5 1/2? Notable because. 5 1/2 is
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  considered a bit of a no man's land or a dead.
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  Zone even though of course. You know, with moving the.
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  Moving the extra point back and. A lot of coaches.
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  Are going for two nowadays, you know the five is a little bit
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  more. Important than it used to be.
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  So the hook does come into play here, or you win by 6, you cover
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  the -5 1/2, but it's suitable to me when you're at 5 1/2, where's
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  the next move? Because it is again a bit of a
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  dead zone. You go up to 6 to.
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  Get down to 5. Well, early in the week.
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  We saw the 49ers get up to -6 1/2, so it was -5 1/2 up to -6
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  1/2. Did not stay long that six and
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  a. Half immediately got down to.
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  6:00 That's when I jumped on the Colts +6 The reason why I like
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  that. Was rhythm.
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  Had Colts at the time we talked about this on the Thursday
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  stream. Plus 3.9 + 4.1 and plus 2.8.
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  So that my angle there was I'm thinking 6 might be the best.
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  Price and everybody and their mothers on 49ers.
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  They've won four straight. Colts have lost four.
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  Straight. Yeah, the Rivers angle is
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  interesting, but it's not a reason to play the Colts.
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  Of anything, I'm thinking maybe, maybe the public's like, wow,
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  you know, give the guy credit. He's a.
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  Grandpa, he's coming back and playing.
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  But he's a grandpa, so. Let's bet against him.
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  But anyway you are getting. Across the board right now. 71%
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  of spread bets laying the 49ers. So they are very popular.
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  Again, they open -5 1/2. They did get up to 6 1/2, but
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  then back down to 6. Now they're down to 5 1/2.
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  And they were at. 5 1/2 when I wrote the sharp.
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  Report earlier today for visa. Dot com But guess what guys?
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  I'm now seeing some books get down to 5 or even 4 1/2, so I am
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  loving the fact that this line continues to go to the Colts.
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  Because as you mentioned on the pod, Colts plus. 6.
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  That's the play that I have. So we're getting some CLV
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  because again, we noticed that hey, it was a.
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  Super contrarian, primetime contrarian dog and rhythm said
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  this game. Should be closer to.
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  You know, 3-4 points. Basically.
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  So grab the six. Down to 5 1/2 now, even 4 1/2
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  that's. Great to see.
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  We were basically at a line freeze.
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  So at the time this morning it was at 5 1/2 and it opened 5
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  1/2. Yes, it.
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  Touched a little bit up but then came back.
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  Down, but basically it was a line freeze in terms of heavy,
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  heavy betting 49ers yet the line was right back to where.
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  It started at the opener. So if you're.
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  Getting, you know, 71% of bets at -5 1/2.
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  You should be up to. 6 1/2 or 7 and stay there and not come back
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  down so that coming back down was an.
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  Indicator to me that. Some pro money jumped on the
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  Colts here, and again, you're looking at a line Freeze.
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  Well, now you're looking at a true reverse.
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  Line move play because those. Five and a half, a lot of them
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  are down to 5 or even now 4 1/2. Now the key here, if you didn't
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  play it yet, is try to get the best of the.
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  Price because I'm still. Seeing DraftKings at plus 5 1/2
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  but. Every other book is 5.
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  Or 4 1/2 but again, having multiple outs, shopping for the
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  best. Number very important, but the
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  Colts are super. Contrarian and heavily bet game
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  only getting less than 1/3 of tickets on an ESPN nationally
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  televised matchup. You look at circa.
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  This is interesting when I. Wrote about the Colts.
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  This morning for thevisen.com Sharp Report Colts at Circo,
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  we're getting 22% of spread bets, 43% of spread dollars.
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  So I'm like, OK, that's a decent little, you know, plus 21%
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  discrepancy. But then right before I started
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  recording the pod, I just said hey.
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  For SS&G's. Let's see where the splits.
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  Are at now. Because that line is getting.
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  Down to 4 1/2. So it told me a lot of big
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  money, you know? Early to late.
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  Afternoon is pouring back on the Colts.
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  Well, now at Circo, 26% of spread bets are on the Colts,
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  but 67% of spread dollars, so. It literally.
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  Jumped up from 43% of spread dollars to 67% of spread
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  dollars, which coincided with this line continuing to move.
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  Further back toward the Colts. So that was.
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  Just a good. Sign and good indicator.
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  Where the splits match the line move telling us big.
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  Money on the Colts here. Now Colts are the ultimate buy
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  low sell high because they are an unpopular dog on a losing
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  streak. Lost four in a row against the
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  sell. High favorite on a winning.
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  Streak, who was one. 4/4 in a row.
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  Then we get into some system matches here.
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  Dogs off a loss, playing an opponent off a win.
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  Just that. Same thought of a buy low sell
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  high. Sell on the team was won you.
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  Know buy low on the team was lost.
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  That system is 45 and 34 against the spread, 57% this year, 9%.
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  ROI if that dog. Off a loss versus opponent off a
• 12:00
  win is getting five points or more, which again, you're on the
• 12:03
  border now because there's a 5 1/2 of five, there's some 4
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  1/2's. But we can.
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  Split it down the middle, say 5 or more.
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  This does technically still apply.
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  They're 32 and 20 against the spread 62% with a 17%.
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  ROI this year then? We look at our prime time dogs.
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  You know my. Patriots came through Bigley
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  last night, even. Though I must admit that line
• 12:22
  did. Go to to Baltimore, got up to 3
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  1/2. It opened as low as like 1 1/2
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  or 2 1/2 but. That's a prime time dog.
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  That came through SO. Prime Time Dogs 20. 7 and 22
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  against the spread this year 50. 5 percent, 5% ROI.
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  Prime time dogs getting 5 or more 79 and. 58 ATS 58.
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  Percent, 10% ROI. Since 2020.
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  Kyle Shanahan, he's. Been good as a dog.
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  As a head coach, as a dog. 28 and 25.
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  ATS 53% favorite though. 45 and 47.
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  ATS 49. Percent favorite of five or.
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  More only 23 and 26. ATS 47% you.
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  Also look at. I mentioned this earlier, it was
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  a you. Know decent teaser.
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  Play 5 1/2 up to 11 1/2. You go through the seven and a
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  ten. Well, now if you're down to 4
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  1/2, you could take him to 10 1/2 and go through the seven and
• 13:15
  the. The 10 as well.
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  But again, this is just. A play for me.
• 13:19
  That I'm holding the six and I'm feeling great that it's down to
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  5 1/2. 5 or now even. 4 1/2. Mention a rhythm has a good
• 13:26
  angle here plus 3.9 + 4.1. Plus 2.8 so.
• 13:31
  Even if it's down to 4 1/2, still a.
• 13:33
  Bit of an edge there. Also noticed a 14% sharp mush
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  edge. In favor of the Colts, so 14%
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  more of the sharper. Winning players who have
• 13:42
  downloaded juice Reel are also going with the Colts here in the
• 13:45
  points. So you add it all up your guys.
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  I'm going to take the Colts +6 as I mentioned earlier.
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  Hopefully you guys listen got. That good +6 if not 5 1/2.
• 13:55
  But again, shop around. Some books, 5, even 4 1/2.
• 13:58
  But we have a very popular. Team to fade with San Fran, we
• 14:01
  can go. Contrarian in a heavily back
• 14:03
  game with the Colts, we've now become a line.
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  Freeze into a reverse. Line move play.
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  Some system matches good splits, rhythm and juice reel both.
• 14:11
  Confirm that play. So let's go Colts.
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  Let's let's. Win the damn game out right or
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  make sure everyone. Can cash let's lose by 4 or
• 14:18
  less? That wouldn't be too bad.
• 14:19
  Did you just want to mention the?
• 14:20
  Total no play for me. On the total, again, I think
• 14:24
  going into it, you know if you got a + 6 lines getting down to
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  five and a half, 5/4 and 1/2. I'm just going to stick with my
• 14:29
  play cuz I did my part, feel like I read.
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  The game correctly, I don't want to, you know, hopefully cash.
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  Indy and then. Force a total.
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  And lose my total and go one and one and lose the juice when I
• 14:38
  could have. Gone 1 and O.
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  And just had a profitable. Night, but I will mention lines
• 14:42
  starting to fall. Back a little bit it.
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  Opened at 40. Six, it got up to 46 1/2 at one
• 14:46
  point and now it is back down to or most most shops are. 40. 6
• 14:52
  1/2 under -115 there's like one book still 46.
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  I think it's FanDuel but most books are now. 46 or even 40.
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  Five and half so that line. Is starting to creep back down
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  now the kind of awkward. Thing here is that the.
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  Splits look good on the over, so if you.
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  Look at the over at. DraftKings is getting 52.
• 15:12
  Percent bet 63%. Dollars the over at Circa. 38%
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  bet, 77% dollars so. Again, you know, it looks to me
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  like the late. Movement is breaking back under
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  and we do have some under trends.
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  Here we look at the. Prime time unders. 29 and 2257.
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  Percent this year, 8%. ROI 58.
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  Percent, 12% ROI since. 2022. But you look at non conference
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  overs they are. 59% this. Year 12%.
• 15:39
  ROI. So this is kind of the perfect
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  example of. I want nothing to do with this
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  total. The splits tell me to go.
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  Over. Non conference overs are.
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  Telling me to go over. But then late movement is
• 15:49
  breaking down, which would tell me some smart money under and we
• 15:53
  do have those prime time. Unders doing well also so.
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  With kind of a case to be made maybe for.
• 15:57
  Both sides and I'm not really one to play many prime time
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  overs. No play for me here on the
• 16:03
  total, but I'm going to see if hopefully the.
• 16:05
  Colts. Can cover this number now.
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  I told you that a futures bet and I I like bet in futures.
• 16:12
  Again, I think, you know, I'm not going to play a million of
• 16:14
  them, but if you can pick your spots, hopefully cash a couple,
• 16:17
  it's just another. Way to build your bankroll, to
• 16:19
  diversify your opportunities and hopefully again make some money.
• 16:23
  Doesn't have to be. Every single night which, you
• 16:26
  know, 9090. 5% of our bets are going to be nightly bets.
• 16:30
  But if you can look for some futures that can cash, it's just
• 16:32
  a nice little sweetener. When you look at over the course
• 16:35
  of a year, some of those features can help you, you know
• 16:38
  turn a bigger profit. So I.
• 16:40
  Wanted to get to the NFL futures?
• 16:42
  And let me just run through you someones that kind of have
• 16:46
  gotten out of hand like. MVP Matthew.
• 16:49
  Stafford is now -215. You can make a case for Drake
• 16:52
  May. He's plus 180.
• 16:54
  But staffers? Numbers have been really good,
• 16:55
  so do I want? To lay 215 with.
• 16:57
  Stafford Not really a little bit too expensive for me.
• 17:00
  Offensive. Rookie of the Year.
• 17:02
  And by the way, these are all coming.
• 17:03
  From DraftKings, but Ted McMillan, wide receiver for
• 17:07
  Carolina, minus. 250 Tyler. Shook is plus 370.
• 17:11
  Mcmillan's a little too expensive.
• 17:13
  Defensive Rookie of the Year. Carson Schwessinger.
• 17:16
  The linebacker for the Browns. He's -1400.
• 17:20
  Way too heavy to bet Offensive Player of the Year.
• 17:23
  Jackson Smith and jigbo -170 Puka Plus 145 you.
• 17:28
  Could make more of a case there Could.
• 17:29
  Be value on either of those guys defensive player.
• 17:32
  Of the year Miles Garrett. -20,000 he's going to win it,
• 17:35
  he's going to get the sack record.
• 17:37
  There's no play there. Comeback Player of the Year
• 17:39
  Christian McCaffrey -300 he'll probably get it, but what I
• 17:42
  landed on is a bet on. Coach of the Year Which?
• 17:47
  Everybody's still plus money, so I'm going to give you the
• 17:51
  breakdown of DraftKings and I'm going to.
• 17:53
  Kind of explain to you why it's super important to actually go
• 17:55
  bet it at a different book that's.
• 17:56
  Giving you a better number. But at DraftKings.
• 18:00
  Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots head coach, plus 100
• 18:04
  Mike McDonald, plus 300 Ben Johnson +4. 50.
• 18:08
  Liam Cohen plus 550. Shanahan plus 650.
• 18:11
  And then pretty much everyone else is way far off the map.
• 18:14
  Anyway, I'm thinking to myself. OK, Rabel.
• 18:18
  To me has the inside track of winning this award and I think
• 18:21
  what's important. For Coach of the Year.
• 18:23
  Is the turn around most of the time unless.
• 18:26
  You have like a lot. Of injuries and you have a good
• 18:28
  year. It's all about like expectations
• 18:30
  like if you were. Going into the year expected.
• 18:32
  To be not very good and then you have a fantastic year.
• 18:35
  Or you had a terrible year and you're much better.
• 18:37
  Like it's that big bounce that. Typically wins coaches this
• 18:41
  award. So Rabel.
• 18:44
  If you go two years ago. It was Belichick's.
• 18:46
  Last year 4 and 13 don't remind me as a Pats.
• 18:48
  Fan It was pathetic. Four and. 13 again last year.
• 18:51
  With drought Mayo terrible. So you've won four games two
• 18:54
  years ago, four games last year. Now the Patriots are 12:00 and
• 18:58
  3:00 and they are playing The Jets.
• 19:01
  With looks like a backup. Quarterback with Cook and they
• 19:05
  are right now favored by 13. And 1/2.
• 19:07
  At The Jets. And then for their.
• 19:09
  Final game of the year, they're going to play the Dolphins and
• 19:12
  that is a home. Game and the Dolphins probably
• 19:14
  will have Quinn. Ewers.
• 19:16
  So, Patriots. Beat and this is not.
• 19:18
  Asking a lot. You beat The Jets this week.
• 19:20
  Favored by nearly 2 touchdowns. You beat the Dolphins in what
• 19:24
  may or may not be a meaningless game.
• 19:26
  You know if Denver. Keeps winning.
• 19:27
  You got to keep. Winning for that one seed, but
• 19:29
  you take care of. Business in games that you.
• 19:31
  Should win against inferior competition who's already
• 19:34
  eliminated and is playing backup.
• 19:35
  Quarterbacks, that gets you to 14 and 3, so you go from 4 and
• 19:42
  13 to 14 and 3. That is about as incredible as a
• 19:47
  turn around, I think. I did see a stat.
• 19:49
  Where if that were to happen, will be the.
• 19:50
  Greatest single calendar year turn around in the history of
• 19:54
  the NFL. If that happens, which is?
• 19:57
  It's likely to happen again. Anything can happen but.
• 20:00
  I think that gets Rabel the Coach of the Year award.
• 20:02
  Now you might be asking. Yourself.
• 20:04
  OK, what's his biggest? Competition.
• 20:06
  It's Mike McDonald of Seattle. But here's the thing with Mike
• 20:09
  McDonald. Again, had had a huge.
• 20:11
  Win for us. And that game.
• 20:13
  Against the the Rams coming back like that.
• 20:15
  With a 2 point conversion. But Seattle was already a pretty
• 20:19
  decent team. They.
• 20:19
  Were ten and seven last year, so you go from 10:00 and 7:00.
• 20:24
  And by the way, their. Last two games are at Carolina.
• 20:27
  No pushover. Carolina's decent this year.
• 20:29
  And at San Fran, that's. Another tough one.
• 20:32
  So they could both go. 14 and three, but the.
• 20:36
  Turn around for the Patriots is much larger than it is.
• 20:40
  For Seattle, like they already. Were ten and seven, and now
• 20:42
  they're. 14 and 3. Yes, that's an improvement, but
• 20:45
  not nearly as big of an. Improvement.
• 20:46
  As four and 13. To 14 and 3.
• 20:50
  So I think that angle of just the massive flip.
• 20:53
  Going from literally 1. Of the worst teams in the NFL.
• 20:55
  To possibly the best. Team in the NFL.
• 20:57
  And you can make a case other teams are better, but we're
• 20:59
  talking about the win, loss record.
• 21:02
  I think that wins Mike. Vrabel this award now if he lost
• 21:05
  to and that's why such a big game.
• 21:07
  Last night against the Ravens, they lose to the Ravens.
• 21:10
  Maybe he doesn't get this. Award, but you beat the.
• 21:12
  Ravens, you're 12 and 3. You got 2 relatively easy.
• 21:15
  Games to end the year. That gets you 14 and 3.
• 21:18
  And then the narrative is, wow, what?
• 21:19
  A turn around. Vrabel, you know, guided the
• 21:22
  ship with the Patriots. So here's the thing, once you
• 21:26
  identify something. That you feel like.
• 21:28
  Has a a sound theory behind it. Then you got to shop for the
• 21:31
  best price. Here's where it gets
• 21:32
  interesting. DraftKings, Mike Vrabel plus
• 21:35
  100. Not bad, plus money.
• 21:37
  You risk a unit, you get a unit. Back Caesar's he's. -110
• 21:43
  Fanatics. He's plus 150.
• 21:46
  The Score. He's plus 145 FanDuel.
• 21:49
  He is plus 175 and then BET MGM +200 so I jumped on Vrabel.
• 21:56
  Coach of the Year BET. MGM +2. 100 and again you're
• 22:01
  risking. A unit you get 2.
• 22:02
  Units back if this thing. Cashes, so that just goes to
• 22:04
  show you the importance of shopping for the.
• 22:06
  Best price? Like, literally Caesar's.
• 22:08
  Has -110 and BET MGM has +200. That is a big discrepancy there.
• 22:13
  So I'm thinking with this turn around.
• 22:16
  Again with Rabel. You know, steering the ship back
• 22:19
  in the right direction. Hopefully we can cash this award
• 22:21
  and it's still a. What I would call a bettable
• 22:23
  number. Not like playing. -20,000 on a
• 22:26
  Miles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year.
• 22:29
  So I'm going Rabel. Coach of the Year.
• 22:30
  At Bet MGM Plus. 200. So that about does it for
• 22:35
  episode 4. 20 of the all. Systems go sports.
• 22:38
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 22:40
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap.
• 22:42
  Things up and always start first by saying thank you.
• 22:45
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 22:48
  grinding in the arena with me through the ups and downs of
• 22:51
  sports. Betting it's a roller coaster.
• 22:53
  But we have a model and a blueprint.
• 22:55
  So if you enjoy the style of betting, you enjoy the pod, you
• 22:58
  enjoy the insights, hopefully you find them valuable, which I
• 23:01
  would hope and believe. Then please help me grow this
• 23:04
  pod. Give it a 5.
• 23:05
  Star Review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 23:07
  Leave a nice comment if you feel so inclined.
• 23:10
  Click the Follow button. By the way, you get alerted.
• 23:13
  With a pop up on your phone as soon.
• 23:14
  As a new one. Comes out each day.
• 23:16
  And also you can of course recommend the pod to a.
• 23:18
  Friend or. Retweet the pod when I tweet it
• 23:20
  out. How they'll all be.
• 23:22
  Awesome of you next. If you enjoy the.
• 23:24
  Style of betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian
• 23:27
  betting focusing on line movement.
• 23:29
  Split system matches taking a contrarian approach.
• 23:32
  If this style of betting. Has appealed to you.
• 23:34
  It's. Provided you that blueprint and
• 23:36
  I'll just mention that I. Did watch the Jake Paul and the
• 23:40
  Anthony Joshua fight where Jake Paul was just?
• 23:43
  Flopping on the ground. Like a dead fish.
• 23:45
  And that was like the ultimate. The number was a little bit too
• 23:49
  high for me, but it was like everyone.
• 23:51
  Playing Jake Paul. All the $5 wagers and the big
• 23:53
  money there was on Joshua and he knocked him out in like the
• 23:55
  sixth round. But anyway that approach.
• 23:58
  To betting, doesn't matter what. Sport it is, but you can.
• 24:00
  Learn to study the numbers. The way the money's.
• 24:02
  Flowing. Have an idea of where the public
• 24:04
  is but yet. Where the smart money is leaning
• 24:07
  if this style betting has. Appealed to you and you want to
• 24:08
  learn more about data-driven betting?
• 24:10
  Or again I. Started off the pod shamelessly
• 24:13
  plugging my two books because I think they're.
• 24:15
  Valuable. It will make a really cool.
• 24:16
  Gift I think I would like if someone bought them for me, but
• 24:19
  please. Go to Amazon.com, type.
• 24:21
  In the NFL, sharp betting. Playbook or the Everything Guide
• 24:23
  to Sports betting. Pick up a copy.
• 24:25
  For you or a friend. Make it a stocking stuffer and
• 24:28
  then. Bring those to the sports book
• 24:30
  and I'll sign them. For you and I'll buy you a beer
• 24:32
  or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together.
• 24:35
  Next, have you downloaded? Rhythm in juice.
• 24:37
  Real yet? My 2.
• 24:37
  Favorite sports betting apps? They help me win.
• 24:40
  They're going to help you win because they're all about that
• 24:42
  data. So if you want to act like a
• 24:44
  wise guy, have your. Own numbers you can.
• 24:46
  You can the rhythms numbers, but they provide you a A.
• 24:49
  Blueprint of looking for discrepancies.
• 24:51
  Where? Again, you know, Rhythm says.
• 24:52
  It should be about a you know about.
• 24:54
  A three or four point game and you can still get a 5 1/2.
• 24:57
  Good angle there. To take the points.
• 24:59
  Let's just feel like we are having an edge, just.
• 25:01
  Another box to check off. But if you'd like to.
• 25:03
  Download the Rhythm app, get AI Mac AI backed models and
• 25:08
  blueprints for game bets and player props or.
• 25:11
  If you'd like to download. Juice Reel Juice Reel is a
• 25:14
  fantastic resource. Where you can follow the all
• 25:17
  systems go best bet picks. For $4.99 a week just by by
• 25:22
  signing. Up to get the plays again.
• 25:24
  I look at it as tipping your podcast host.
• 25:26
  We also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
• 25:28
  indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line
• 25:31
  features, all available when you download Juice Reel.
• 25:34
  So download rhythm, download juice reel.
• 25:36
  Give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 25:38
  Next, you have a live odds page. If you don't have one, you need
• 25:41
  one. You can do everything I'm
• 25:43
  talking about on your own. I've given.
• 25:45
  I've given. You the blueprint.
• 25:47
  But you got to be. Able to track the data so you
• 25:49
  can do it on your own. You know.
• 25:51
  Basically based on the numbers. Not just based on philosophy,
• 25:54
  you got to be able to. Get into the nitty gritty, track
• 25:56
  the betting market. Figure out every.
• 25:58
  Game on the board, live scoring live in.
• 26:00
  Game wagering opening numbers. Current numbers, see which
• 26:03
  direction the line is moved, pull up the line history, all
• 26:06
  that. Is available to you and I would.
• 26:08
  Argue that the best. Live odds page around is odds
• 26:11
  logic, so if you want to give. It a shot.
• 26:13
  Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7.
• 26:19
  Day free trial and 50. Percent off your first month of
• 26:22
  service next. Have you downloaded Novig yet?
• 26:26
  If you haven't, I would. Suggest you do it because novig.
• 26:29
  Is an awesome sports betting exchange.
• 26:32
  It's not a sports book. So therefore you're getting
• 26:34
  better juice prices. So for example, instead of
• 26:37
  having to pay -110 -, 115 -, 120, you're getting better
• 26:42
  numbers. Like for example I'm looking at
• 26:44
  the game. Tonight you could go. 49ers -4
• 26:47
  1/2 at -1 O 2. You can get Colts plus. 4 1/2 at
• 26:51
  +100. You could go over 46.
• 26:53
  And F + 1 O3 under 46 and F -, 1 O 4.
• 26:57
  So again. You could win at the.
• 26:58
  Same rate you would. Betting at.
• 27:00
  A true sports book like DK FanDuel, Bet, MGM, Caesars.
• 27:03
  Whatever the case may be. But actually make more money.
• 27:07
  With Nova because you're risking less juice.
• 27:09
  And then lastly, come join. My Splash Sports NFL Survivor
• 27:14
  contest, I tweeted. About it over the weekend.
• 27:17
  We're up to 25. Sign up.
• 27:18
  So very proud of that. But someone could make 20 turn
• 27:21
  25 bucks into over 5000. Dollars and.
• 27:24
  Remember, it's a little different.
• 27:26
  You can Join Now, but it won't. Start until the playoffs.
• 27:28
  Start. So you have up until.
• 27:30
  You know, literally kick off of the first wild card game to
• 27:33
  throw. Your hat in the ring.
• 27:34
  But you can. Sign up now.
• 27:36
  With that splash boards contest link which is located.
• 27:39
  In the description. Of the podcast.
• 27:42
  So that that about dozen guys for episode 420.
• 27:45
  Maybe I'll watch Half Baked tonight.
• 27:47
  One of my favorite. Movies just to celebrate the
• 27:49
  holiday. Hinton, if you know what I mean.
• 27:50
  I did go. To the University of Vermont.
• 27:52
  So you might you might be catching my drift there.
• 27:55
  But anyway, last final thoughts here to leave you with.
• 27:57
  One whether I. See you at the Borgata in
• 27:59
  Atlantic City Twin. River in Rhode Island, the
• 28:01
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 28:04
  Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plainridge park casino
• 28:07
  MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the Woods on the border
• 28:10
  of Nashville, New Hampshire and Massachusetts.
• 28:13
  They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
• 28:15
  where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
• 28:18
  juice possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
• 28:21
  contrarian plays. Jumping in the stadium,
• 28:23
  swimming. Pool when you catch.
• 28:24
  A big ticket at Circa. Wherever it may be, you're going
• 28:26
  to walk. Up to me, You're going to show
• 28:28
  me from Saturday a Miami plus 3 1/2 ticket.
• 28:31
  Or how about a bears dog to fave money line ticket, whatever it
• 28:36
  is first one. 'S on me, next one's on you,
• 28:37
  we'll. Post about the book Sweatshark
• 28:39
  Contrarian Place all night long. Or maybe you can show me the
• 28:42
  Eagles. That divisional winter ticket,
• 28:43
  that was nice to get it as well. But anyway.
• 28:45
  Guys coming off a what? Was it?
• 28:48
  Let's see, a it's going to be difficult because we had a push
• 28:51
  in there. A 2-3 in one weekend.
• 28:55
  A three. Two in one weekend.
• 28:57
  A six and O, an O and six, all those different combinations,
• 29:00
  whatever. The case may be.
• 29:01
  Coming off a. Good weekend or a bad weekend?
• 29:03
  A good night. Or a great night.
• 29:05
  Or a terrible night. Or a mediocre night.
• 29:07
  A hot. Streak a cold streak we.
• 29:08
  Just got to stick to the model. Stick to the blueprint.
• 29:11
  Play the system matches discipline.
• 29:13
  With our bankroll management, if we can do that.
• 29:15
  We're. Going to be successful sports
• 29:17
  better so let's. Find those system plays, games
• 29:19
  that are against the public, with the house, with the pros.
• 29:21
  Flat bet no. Parlays and let's get some CLV
• 29:25
  and again, if we can do that, I'm confident we're going to
• 29:27
  come out on top. In the end, so have a great
• 29:29
  Monday night. Everybody, let's go.
• 29:31
  Colts and Old Man Rivers. Let's get Rabel to get Coach of
• 29:35
  the Year. I'll be right back at it
• 29:36
  tomorrow. Which?
• 29:37
  Might be. The last episode of the.
• 29:42
  Not of the year. Close to the year.
• 29:44
  But the last episode before Christmas because.
• 29:46
  I was supposed to go to my mom and dad's tomorrow, me and the
• 29:49
  wife. And and my dog, but it looks
• 29:51
  like there's going to be a big snowstorm.
• 29:53
  So I think we're going to go Wednesday, New Year's Eve ish
• 29:57
  morning. So probably the last pot, we'll
• 29:59
  have one for tomorrow, which we'll talk about some of those
• 30:01
  Christmas games because they're already up and available.
• 30:04
  But have you seen some of these, you know, quarterback matchups?
• 30:07
  Dallas Washington is Prescott. Mariota Detroit is Goff and Max
• 30:11
  Brosner. Maybe Denver is Bonex and
• 30:15
  Oladukon, Baltimore Green Bay is.
• 30:20
  We don't even know who that's going to be.
• 30:21
  That could be Tyler Huntley against Malik Willis anyway.
• 30:24
  A lot of ups and ups and downs. And question marks, but we'll
• 30:26
  talk about it on tomorrow's pod, which we episode. 4/21.
• 30:31
  Of the ASG. All systems go sports betting
• 30:34
  podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody.
• 30:37
  And happy. Christmas Eve.
• 30:39
  Eve. Good luck.