Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - TACO Trump Backs Down From Greenland Threats + Democrats Need To Be Smart About Candidate Selection For Midterms

Transcript

Chuck’s Commentary - TACO Trump Backs Down From Greenland Threats + Democrats Need To Be Smart About Candidate Selection For Midterms · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: They're Happy Thursday, or should I call it Taco Thursday?
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  Speaker 1: For those of you who were a bit nervous about
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  Speaker 1: what Trump is up to, the Taco Trump showed up
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  Speaker 1: in Davos, and we can joke all we want about
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  Speaker 1: the idea that Trump always chickens out. The fact of
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  Speaker 1: the matter is he mostly always chickens out, and the
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  Speaker 1: problem is we don't know when he is or isn't.
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  Speaker 1: And the question is what do you take to the bank.
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  Speaker 1: It is interesting one of there are two things that
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  Speaker 1: have happened in the last twenty four hours that easily
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  Speaker 1: sway Donald Trump. One is the markets being the one
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  Speaker 1: guard rail that has made him change course. The markets
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  Speaker 1: collapsed on Tuesday due to fears of this trade war
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  Speaker 1: with Europe, the trade deal, by the way, that you
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  Speaker 1: already suspended the ratification process of the larger deal that
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  Speaker 1: was being negotiated, or one thought was already negotiated, just
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  Speaker 1: waiting for the eyes to be dotted in the tees
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  Speaker 1: to be crossed. But you had the massive move in
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  Speaker 1: the markets. And then you have the fact that Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump doesn't want to let people down who he's speaking
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  Speaker 1: to in person. And so if you're in Davos and
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  Speaker 1: you heard Donald Trump say I'm not using force and
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  Speaker 1: you know I'm dropping all the tariffs, well that's because
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  Speaker 1: he wants to please the people who have his ear
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  Speaker 1: in the moment. And it all will depend on who
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  Speaker 1: has his ear at a given moment, at a given time,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and sometimes actually staff, when they're trying to manage his
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: crazy do try to put him within places or with
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  Speaker 1: groups of people that they know will be a positive
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: influence on him. Versus a negative influence on him, right,
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  Speaker 1: Like he's sort of in a weird way assimilates to
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  Speaker 1: whatever the moment is. And he realized everything he was
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  Speaker 1: doing was unpopular in Davos, so he wanted to lower
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  Speaker 1: the temperature and then everybody would be happy with him,
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  Speaker 1: because ultimately, he knows these people don't like him, so
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  Speaker 1: the only way to make them like him is to
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  Speaker 1: at least make them feel relief. So in that sense,
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  Speaker 1: I think he made everybody at Davos feel relief, and
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  Speaker 1: the European leaders can exhale a bit. But I will
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  Speaker 1: tell you this, and it's why I spend so much
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  Speaker 1: time on it in the previous episode, the Mark Carney
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  Speaker 1: speech to Davos, really, I do think, is one that
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  Speaker 1: isn't you know. It's not like he's going to retract
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  Speaker 1: that sentiment. And Canada is already pursuing a go at
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  Speaker 1: a loan strategy because they have no choice, and that's
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  Speaker 1: the way they view this, and that's the way they
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  Speaker 1: believe this. And I think, ultimately, you know, Donald Trump's
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  Speaker 1: decision to pull back his rhetoric on Greenland, pull back
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  Speaker 1: his threats on Greenland, doesn't mean he hasn't done with
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  Speaker 1: that it. You know, it sounds like, you know, one
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  Speaker 1: of the few European whisperers that can move Trump a
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  Speaker 1: little bit is the current NATO head of NATO Secretary
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  Speaker 1: General Mark Root, and he seemed to whatever he said
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  Speaker 1: to Trump said we've got a great deal, and he
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: seems to imply it's a it. It's interesting as always,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: you got to see the details. But it may be
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  Speaker 1: that whatever it is, it's a it's it's just simply
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: granting the US the ability to do everything that they
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  Speaker 1: already had the ability to do. But you know, kind
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  Speaker 1: of like NAFTA, if you just change the name or
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  Speaker 1: he gets to sign the agreement, then it looks like
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  Speaker 1: he did something. So sometimes that gambit works. We've got
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  Speaker 1: a great deal for you, and it's the same deal,
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  Speaker 1: but you get to sign it, mister president. Right, that's
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  Speaker 1: what the US MCA. It is just NAFTA three point zero,
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  Speaker 1: except they change the name and gets it. It goes
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  Speaker 1: to And this is where you know, he is both
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  Speaker 1: an easy mark and a frustrating mark. Right, He's an
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  Speaker 1: easy mark if you flatter him, and you you you know,
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  Speaker 1: offer him a trinket or offer him naming rights. Or
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  Speaker 1: offer him you will nobody's ever done this before type
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  Speaker 1: of mindset, so uh, I can't wait to see the
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  Speaker 1: details here. But this has the the whiff of they're
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  Speaker 1: just cutting and pasting the exact same treaty that gave
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  Speaker 1: the United States everything that they already had in their
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  Speaker 1: abilities on greenlent. But this time Donald Trump signs the agreement,
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  Speaker 1: so therefore it's a new agreement. That's the most likely
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  Speaker 1: place we're headed there, but it is a longer you know,
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  Speaker 1: you know who the biggest group of exhalers are here
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  Speaker 1: are Senate Republicans because they're scared, you know what, in
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  Speaker 1: having to exercise any sort of check on him. And
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  Speaker 1: you know which is why Donald Trump is not backed
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  Speaker 1: off on making sure he's going to endorse against anybody
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  Speaker 1: that did him wrong. Right. That's why Bill cass is
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  Speaker 1: on the wrong end of a Trumpet endorsement in the
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  Speaker 1: Louisiana Senate race. That's to send a message to the
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  Speaker 1: other fifty two Republican elected US senators that at any
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  Speaker 1: moment in time, he wants all of them to feel
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  Speaker 1: as if they constantly owe him their political careers. Some
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  Speaker 1: of them actually do right, some of them wouldn't be
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  Speaker 1: United States senators wouldn't be I mean Tommy Tupperville, Right,
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  Speaker 1: here's a guy that you would have no political career
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  Speaker 1: without Donald Trump. And so that's the kind of loyalty
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  Speaker 1: he's trying to instill so that they will do his bidding.
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  Speaker 1: And so that's why in some ways he's got to
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  Speaker 1: follow through on his threats to these other Republicans, no
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  Speaker 1: matter if it weakens the Republican Party in the long term,
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  Speaker 1: weakens their ability to be a government, to be seen
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  Speaker 1: as a governing force if he wants to what he
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  Speaker 1: really wants, which is loyalty here, So like with anything
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  Speaker 1: with Trump, right, he escalates, he de escalates, but he
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  Speaker 1: hasn't necessarily given up that ambition. And there's all sorts
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  Speaker 1: of factors driving this ambition there, you know, ultimately leaving
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  Speaker 1: a mark. He is desperate to be historically relevant. Well, congratulations,
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  Speaker 1: you'res he's going to be historically relevant. Whether he's historically
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  Speaker 1: relevant for the reasons he wants to be or if
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  Speaker 1: he's historically relevant for other reasons is the open question here.
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  Speaker 1: But he is that clearly is one of the drivers here.
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  Speaker 1: And look, Greenland looks so big on a map, and
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  Speaker 1: he wants to be able to you know, project strength,
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  Speaker 1: right he he he sees some of this stuff as
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  Speaker 1: symbolic and he needs that symbol in some ways to
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  Speaker 1: make them to appease him on these things. But so
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  Speaker 1: he's back down from this. But the longer term damage
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  Speaker 1: has been done because of what we're already witnessing with Canada,
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  Speaker 1: what we're already witnessing with the EU. They're going to
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  Speaker 1: do their own trade deals now, They're not going to
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  Speaker 1: worry about the United States. And some of you may say, well,
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  Speaker 1: great Europe relied on the United States too much. There's
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  Speaker 1: some in Europe that believe Europe relied on the United
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  Speaker 1: States too much. I think in fifty years we're going
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  Speaker 1: to look back and the EU is going to be
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  Speaker 1: a real competitor on a number of things. And then
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  Speaker 1: we're going to wonder, boy, why did we prop up?
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  Speaker 1: You know, we made the EU fend for itself and
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  Speaker 1: suddenly the EU is eating our lunch type of thing. Right,
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  Speaker 1: if that happens in fifty years, but I think we
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  Speaker 1: may make Europe great again. We may end up forcing
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  Speaker 1: the EU to have a strong military. And I don't
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  Speaker 1: think he cares whether NATO survives or not, And as
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  Speaker 1: long as Donald Trump's calling the shots, I don't think
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  Speaker 1: NATO is a relevant organization because he is not going
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  Speaker 1: to I don't think he will abide by the terms
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  Speaker 1: of the treaty if it's not something that he's leading
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  Speaker 1: the charge on. If Estonia wants the US help in
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  Speaker 1: dealing with Russia, I think Estonia realizes it's going to
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  Speaker 1: have to talk to other NATO members. The United States
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  Speaker 1: might not be the one that steps up. And that's
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  Speaker 1: still a long term concern. So while we have a
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  Speaker 1: bit appeased short term and some of you conspiracy theorists
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: out there, you know, maybe wondering, boy, who is it
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  Speaker 1: that gets rich off of this stock market guard rail
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: stuff that takes place? Right Trump says something, Kaka Maimi
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  Speaker 1: says something stupid, the markets react quickly. But there's always
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  Speaker 1: you know, people that are making money off of this stuff,
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  Speaker 1: and essentially by trading the crazy, right, by trading off
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the crazy because maybe they have some inside information on
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: that stuff. So you may end up queuing some of
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the conspiracy there because some of you may have seen
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: your four to one case. You know, we still lost
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  Speaker 1: more money than we got back collectively in the stock
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  Speaker 1: market on a one day note. But there's always somebody
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: making money when you see these wild swings, and it's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: usually insiders that are making that kind of money. But
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: here we are. That's you know, I guess pulling back
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: on this crisis. We will now see a little bit
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: of focus, probably on some other issues a bit. But
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  Speaker 1: I don't think this changes the trajectory of whether other
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  Speaker 1: countries want to do business with the United States. It
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  Speaker 1: is he is making it very difficult to sign any
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  Speaker 1: deal with the United States because he doesn't necessarily want
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  Speaker 1: to abide by any agreement or be pinned down by
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  Speaker 1: any agreement. But the big lesson still is the guardrail
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  Speaker 1: that works, and the one that works the most consistently
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: is the stock market, for better or for worse. So
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: who knows, maybe the stock market there'll be some way
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: that the stock market reacts to one of these ice
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: raids in a way that gets his attention to realize
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: he's got a problem there. But before we get to
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Jacob Fry, you know, Trump's been sort of putting us
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: through the ringer, and I, like I said, I'm still
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: concerned that all of his actions these unilateral actions are
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: going to trigger. You know, political physics is a bitch
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: because for every action, there is going to be an
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  Speaker 1: equal and opposite reaction. And that how concern should be
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  Speaker 1: that he stumbles stumbles us into some sort of war,
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  Speaker 1: because trade wars turn into military conflicts quicker than people realize.
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  Speaker 1: And it's still this is still to me a top concern.
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  Speaker 1: And that's why my friend I and Bremmer put the
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  Speaker 1: United States and in some ways, Donald Trump's leadership in
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  Speaker 1: the United States as the top risk for the globe
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  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. I think these first twenty two
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: days of the year have proven that that is a
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: pretty prophetic decision by putting the United States and Donald
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Trump's leadership is the top risk for twenty twenty six.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: But hey, I'm a political junkie at heart, which means
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: and I know some of you got to know me
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: more as a campaign nerd, whether it was at the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: hotline or whether it was the work I did at NBC.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: And we've had a lot of we've had a lot
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: of action. I devoted my top five list to what's
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: going on in Senate races and sort of where do
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the Democrats' chances stand. I think Democrats, I think you know,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: it's funny. It's one of those issues with the where
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: if you look at the political landscape from sixty thousand feet,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: you're like, boy, a big wave is brewing. This is
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: how this is one of those times where the out
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: party's going to win everything. They're going to win the
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: House in the Senate. When you look at it race
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: by race, I can't get there. I have a hard
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: time getting to the net four seat pickup four Democrats
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: to pick up the Senate. And yet if you pull
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the lens back, you're like, oh wow, this national political
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: environment says act So look, A lot of this is
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: going to depend on candidate recruitment. Some of this is
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: going to depend on what kind of primary results take place.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think in the same way that the
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: so called red wave that never happened in twenty twenty two,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: part of that was a Donald Trump issue, right, He
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: endorsed unelectable candidates and a lot of places, including in Pennsylvania,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and what could have been a good Republican knight turned
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: into basically barely acceptable nights since they narrowly got the House,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: but they couldn't you know it but they couldn't get everything.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: And I think that that that's a possibility with the Democrats,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: that they have primaries in Texas and Michigan and in Minnesota,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: and I want to talk about here in Minnesota, where
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: if the either wrong nominee or the atmosphere of the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: primary creates a situation where no matter whoever comes out
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: of the primary, it's a divided party and they have
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a hard time uniting. That could easily hold the party
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: back in its ability to win general elections because simply
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: they either had a messy primary or the wrong candidate
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: got the nomination. And that brings me to Minnesota that
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I think the most interesting New Canada the last twenty
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: four hours if you're a sports fan, is Michelle Tafoya.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: She's a former NBC sports reporter. Was on the original
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I think Sunday Night football team there when it was
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Al Michaels and Madden. I think even before Collinsworth, it
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: was Michelle Tafoya. And she's been thinking about ever since
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: she left esp left NBC and then I think she
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: worked at ESPN as well. She's been hinting at the
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: idea that she was open to running for office. She
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: has been she is. She is certainly certainly expressed sort
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: of more on the on the conservative media side of things,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: skeptical of sort of mainstream media bit and skeptical of
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: that more on the culture. Less on policy, I've not
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: heard a lot from her own policy. I've heard more
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: on the woke vibe and that aspect of conservative politics.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: So I will tell you that in Minnesota, to win,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: you you got to also be a policy nerd to
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota voter. Minnesota turns out in big numbers, number one,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: number two. It's just a very it's just a it's
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: a very educated electorate, and so you no matter, you've
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: got to show up knowing your stuff. But they're very
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: open to outsiders. And I think in any other campaign here,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I think Michelle Tafoya would be we'd be talking about
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Senate as a as a as a hirrant. I
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: just think in this current national environment, she's swimming uphill.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is a state that is a lean blue state
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: that wants to be a swing state, and it's certainly been,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: you know, and Republicans have been. It's it's a little
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: bit of lucy with the football, you know. They they've
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: occasionally won a governor's race. They occasionally win a Senate race.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: You know, it's been Richard Nixon's the last presidential candidate
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: to carry the state in nineteen seventy two. Even in
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: the forty nine state landslide of Ronald Reagan, Minnesota Walter
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Mondale's home state was the loan holdout from Ronald Reagan
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: in eighty four. So Nixon McGovern was the last time
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Minnesota voted voted Republican. So, but there's a pretty messy
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: primary in the Minnesota Senate race between the Lieutenant governor,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Peggy Flanagan, who's been endorsed on the progressive side of things.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: You've got Angie Craig, who is I think the preference
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: of sort of the establishment wing of the party, the
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Schumer wing of the party. And you know, we'll see
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: how that plays out. Primaries in Minnesota have tended to
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: favor base candidates both left and right. They've historically had
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: convention processes that have that have actually hamstrung Republicans in
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the past because their convention process will not somebody that's
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: too conservative to win. But they do both. You can
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: you can go through an endorsement process through the state
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: party and then you can also end up on the ballot.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: And you know, when you look at the candidates Tim Polenni,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: Norm Coleman who have won statewide races, they have been
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: sort of center somewhere, not on every issue, but seen
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: as close to the center on something. Norm Coleman was
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: definitely more centrist on social issues. I think Tim Polenni
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: on economic issues, he was the original sort of he was.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: There was something called a Walmart I think he I
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: think he was starting Walmart Conservatism. He was sort of
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: talking about this before Donald Trump came along, talking about, Hey,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: we've got to we've got to change our talking about
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party, change our connections to corporate America, because
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: there's a working voter here as culturally conservative, who doesn't
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: feel like we're looking out for them economically. So the
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: point being is conventional conservative Republican doesn't win in Minnesota.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: It got to be a little bit different somewhere. So
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be curious to see there. But look,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: she's got high name ID and in a neutral political environment,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I think we'd be talking about this as a as
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: a really you know, hey, Republicans have put Minnesota in play.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I'm a bit skeptical, especially with what's going on right
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: now with the with the political environment there that it's
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: polarized things, Ice is very unpopular. How this has been
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: done is very unpopular. So we'll see. But I think
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: she's banking on when you see her announcement video, I
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: think she's banking on unpopularity of Tim Wall's unpopularity of
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: the state leadership that she hopes can help her in there.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: But it's a look. Minnesota is one of those. It's
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: sort of I've talked about there are states that that
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Democrats are hoping to move from to purple, like Texas
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: or a Kansas or maybe in Iowa again, and then
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: there are states that Republicans are trying to get from
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: blue to purple, right, and that's Minnesota. New Mexico's on
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: that list. I think they're going to you know, in
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: the post Trump era, Virginia and Colorado may get put
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: back on that list. So I'd put Minnesota in there
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: as sort of you know, in the same way. I
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: still think the Republicans got to be in a net
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: positive national environment to then do well in Minnesota. But
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: there's got to be some real money and if the
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Democratic primary gets messy, we'll see. But she's got to
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: go up against the candidate that got the nomination last time,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: which was a former basketball player named Royce White, who
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: is a little bit out there. In fact, his candidacy
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: was so out there in twenty twenty four when he
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: was challenging Amy Klobashar that National Republicans didn't want to
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: get near him, didn't want to touch. But he's you know,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: he's he kind of has played the MAGA influencer game
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: a little bit, and you know, he's got his own
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: deep and may not be broad, but deep support among
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: some parts of the Minnesota conservative movement. And he's still running.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: But Tafoya's got the endorsement of all the establishment. I
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: would assume Trump comes in. He loves stars, right, especially
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: that are adjacent to sports. So I'm sure she'll get
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: the Trump endorsement at some point, which should get him there.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: So in general, look the Senate battlefield right now. You
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: know every cycle that eventually expands somewhere in the ten
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: to twelve seat arena, right You've got we know, we
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: know North Carolina, Maine, those are no matter what, those
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: are going to be close unless Susan Collins chooses not
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: to run. It's interesting. I've made a big deal about
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the fact that we haven't gotten to the filing deadline.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: It's not lost on me that the big Republican super
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: pac that John Thune, the Senate Republican leader controls, went
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: public to say, hey, look at all this money we're
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: putting together to defend Maine. I mean, it's almost like
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: we're going to go public to doing everything they can
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: to reassure her that they're in because guess what if
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: she doesn't run, Maine is off the board. So there's
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: a part of me that views the big pr announcement
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: about their dedication of nearly fifty million dollars that they're
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: ready to spend already of outside money to help Susan
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Collins is as much about trying to make sure she files.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Because in this political environment, I go back, I look
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: at her numbers, it would not shock me if she
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: chose to say, you know what, I'm out. I can't
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: do this, you know, especially if just as she gets close,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: somehow Trump pulls the rug out from under her. And
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: that's the part of the seat. It's tough when you
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: want to run your own campaign, when you know you
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: probably aren't able to run your own campaign. This episode
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• 25:49
  Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Speaking of Trump, Julia let low
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: I've talked about the Cassidy race, and in Louisiana, Julia
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: let Lowe officially announce and I have to say, and
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: a few things jumped out at me about both the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: announcement and then the immediate non announcement from the NRSC
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: and the Senate Republican Leadership Team. The first thing is
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: what Julia letlow said in her announcement video, which included
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the following line, a state as conservative as ours, we
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have to wonder how our senator will vote when
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the pressure is on. Huh. This is basically saying we
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have a senator think for themselves. We should know
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: that whatever the president wants, is this how this senator
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: is going to vote. She didn't quite say it, but
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: she kind of said it, right. It's her way of
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: trying to remind Republican voters. Hey, Bill Cassidy wasn't there
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: for Trump when Trump needed him. Now, look, Louisiana's not
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a swing state. There is no Democrats did not get
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: John Bell Edwards. That was what Schumer was trying to do.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: The former governor, the last Democrat to be able to
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: show that he could win statewide. Was trying to get
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: him to consider maybe he's trying one more time to
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: do this, but with no fear of a Democratic challenger here.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: The Senate Republican Leadership Fund Right SLF has said they're
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: not getting involved, So they're not going to help Bill Cassidy, right,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: They're going they're doing everything they can to help John
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Cornyn in his primary. They have said they are not
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: going to get involved in helping Bill Cassidy. What kind
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: of message does that send to other Senate Republicans. I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: was stunned when I saw that. Right now, I mean,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: this is what punch Bowl reported that Republican leaders have
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: been quiet since Trump's endorsement and that the NSC Senate
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: battlefield doesn't include Louisiana and SLF isn't expected to get
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: involved in the race. That is a total Bill Cassidy,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: You're on your own. We are cutting you loose, Which
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: brings me to a decision that I think he's he
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: claims he's going to stay in the race. We'll see.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: I think if he wants to win this Senate seat,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: there's only one path to winning the Senate seat, and
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: it's to run as an independent. It is to pull
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: a Lisa Murkowski and just say hey, I ain't running
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: in the primary, but I want all voters because the state,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: you know, again, this used to be Louisiana used to
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: hold very small d democratic primary elections. Everybody voted in
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: the primary. Top two if nobody received fifty percent, would
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: meet in a runoff, if you will, it was basically
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: an all party general election. They changed the rules specifically
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: to make sure Cassidy had to face Republicans only in
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: a primary. This was all done since he voted to
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: convict Trump after January sixth. You know, it was the
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: same thing that was essentially orchestrated to do with Lisa Murkowski.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: At least I'll go ahead and run as a ride in.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: And I've always said, you know, you know how how
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: untouchable she is m u r Kowski. She won as
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: a ride in and her last name's Murkowski. It won smith, right,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: that's how politically powerful she is in her own in
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the state of Alaska. So we'll see what happens there.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: There's been no hints I've like, I've told you the
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: only hints I've ever gotten about Cassidy being intrigued about
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: running as independent is when he flirted a bit with
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the no Labels crowd when they were looking for a
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: presidential candidate in twenty four I think he took a call.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think he reached out to ask questions.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: I think he just accepted an outreach and certainly heard
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: some people out. But if there are a lot of
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Senate Republican incumbents I think who quietly hope Cassidy doesn't
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: back down and that he does doesn't just allow himself
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: to be the Washington generals to the Harlem globetrotters in
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: a primary, but instead really do that. And it's look,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: his only chance is if he can expand the electorate.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: And the only way he can expand the voting electorate
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: is if he gets out of the of the Republican primary.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: So we shall see. There a few other campaign notes.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: I think our friend Paul Finebaum, mister Alabama SEC promote,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the unofficial promoter of SEC football for ESPN. I kid
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Paul if he's still considering running for the US Senate
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: in Alabama, he just he's in trouble because Donald Trump
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: has now picked the candidate. So with Donald Trump's decision
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: to endorse Barry Moore, the congressman in that primary, even
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: though a recent poll actually had him in second, not
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: in first, I you know, I wonder if that if
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: that changes. I think fine Bam thought that again a
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of a sports celebrity, that that might get
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the president's attention. Maybe he did do some outreach and
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: they weren't interested. It was, you know, in that brief
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: period where fine Baum was trying to establish his credentials
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: as a conservative Republican. He said he claimed he voted
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: for Trump and then he was a Trump supporter, So
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: clearly he was putting up the trial balloon to see
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: if he would get any sort of feedback the other way.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: We'll find out filing deadline soon, so we'll get there.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: But it's interesting that Trump's already endorsed. Fine Bomb's not
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: even being tested anymore. So I know he isn't officially
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: announced that he's out because Calsh still has his has
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: the You can still trade on whether fine Baum is
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: going to run or not. But if you just look
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: at the inaction, fine Boum himself had said he would
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: wait till after the college football playoff and his ESPN
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: duties were done for this season before fully contemplating this,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: So we'll see if that has changed at all. Two
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: other notes that I've been wanting to get to but haven't.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Twelve states applied to be first in the nation for
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the Democrats in twenty twenty eight, and I thought I'd
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: quickly go through them. Out of the West, it was
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Nevada and New Mexico. Out of the South, Georgia, North Carolina,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, Tennessee. In Virginia. Out of the midwest, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: and out of the east, New Hampshire and Delaware all
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: want to be part of the first four, the early
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: early process, to get into the early window where you
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: would get a variety of candidates. Here, look, it's not
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: looking good for Iowa. As many of you know, I'm
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: a huge proponent that Iowa of all of the potential
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: first in the nation states that want to get back,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: that they ought to just go back to Iowa. That
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: iowalast time I checked Iowa was was was the launching
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: pad for Barack Obama. So I've always thought the dumbest
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: argument against Iowa is that Iowa was too white, and
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: considering all of the problems the Democratic Party has in
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: reaching out to rural America, because what rural America's white.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: So if you are immediately sending the message, oh, you know,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: we don't want a rural state that's too white, well
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: you're you're basically just sent a message to all of
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: rural America outside of the rural blacks in the South
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: and rural Hispanics in the Southwest, that you're not interested
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: in their vote. And I just think it's a it's
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: a it's been a terrible way this has been messaged.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: The time story that had it. It's like just a
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: they have they have got to recalibrate. Uh, if you
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: say you don't want caucus systems, say that, but you
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: better come up with a better reason than Iowa is
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: just too white. Because if you're a political party and
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: you've decided that, you know, you can't participate in certain
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: regions because of demographic makeup, then you're just conceding defeat
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: and you don't want to be a national political party.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: So look, do I think Iowa's uphill? I do, even
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: though the irony is that Iowa. You know, if you're progressive,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: if it wasn't for Iowa, Bernie Sanders wouldn't be relevant.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: If you're a Barack Obama fan, if it wasn't for Iowa,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama might not have been President of the United States.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Iowa's been pretty good to the Democratic Party. Without Iowa,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: they wouldn't have, you know, had a Jimmy Carter. So
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: it's a head scratcher to me, the anger at Iowa
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: that's there. I think it's just a if you want
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: my opinion, there's a lot of former Clinton staffers. I
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: was never been good to the Clintons. Right when Bill
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Clinton ran in ninety two, an Iowa Democrat named Tom
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Harkin was running, so he skipped Iowa. When Hillary Clinton
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: obviously her candidacy got up ended in two thousand and
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: eight because she lost Iowa and then she almost you know,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: it all depends on who you talk to in twenty sixteen,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: did she win Iowa lose Iowa. Fact is, we're not
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent sure. But again Iowa put Bernie Sanders
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: on the map. So I've always thought the residual anger
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: at Iowa is due to staffers and strategists who were
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: all with who were all working for Clinton, who also
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: are our big have a lot of influence inside the DNC,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: who are just mad that Iowa didn't go the way
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: they wanted to go. But it's been surprising to me
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: that some of the Obama era folks haven't fought harder
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: to defend Iowa or to promote Iowa. But if you're
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: not going to do Iowa, you're going to need a
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: rural state to be first. And you know, you start
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: to look at this list, New Mexico jumps out at
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: me as I think a fascinating potential. First in the nation,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: there's a I do think there's actually some ideological diversity.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Rural New Mexico finly has a red lean to it.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: The second congressional district, which is the most rural part
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: rural district of the three districts, there is a swing district,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: and so yeah, I think there's something. You know, My
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: only concern about New Mexico's first is that, you know,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: if you can win Albuquerque, you can win the state. Right.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's ever good, you know. I think
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that's the knock on Nevada that ultimately, if you can
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: win Vegas, you win the you win the caucuses. You
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: don't want to I don't know if that's a good test, right.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: You know, the way the Iowa system works is you
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: can't just win to Moine and win the state. Trust me,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton tried it twice and it didn't work. And
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: that's what I think made it a bit more of
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: a better test. But that that jumps out at me.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that Georgia, it's interesting that Georgia,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: North Carolina and Virginia, right, these are two swing states
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: and one former swing state that is now leaning blue.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: I think the downside of Virginia's Northern Virginia right, too
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: many professional voters in that it would might get a
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: little insider and all of that. So that probably is
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: a knock on Virginia. And North Carolina might simply be
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: too expensive, although I like the diversity, the geographic diversity
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: of North Carolina. That could be intriguing and both it
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: has demographic diversity, geographic diversity, socioeconomic diversity. But it's a
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: big state, and do you want a big state a
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: top ten state? Right? I think that's the knock on Michigan,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: you know, the first four being you know, frankly five
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: congressional districts or less strikes me as sort of what
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: should be the cap because the whole idea of having
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: a small state go first is that it means a
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: guy like Howard Dean in two thousand and four, who
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: didn't have a national fundraising base, could raise enough money
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: to be competitive on Iowa. If he could be competitive Iowa,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: then that could serve as a launching had. So having
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: small states right, the barrier to entry is simply lower,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: and it allows a former mayor of South Bend to
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: try to jump in and things like that, where if
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: you have a Michigan, a North Carolina, a Georgia, one
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: of the growing one of the larger states or growing states,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: big super pac money can just overwhelm Right. I'm not
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: saying big money doesn't matter in Iowa, but in some
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: ways you don't. It isn't It doesn't cinch the game
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: the way it might in a larger state there. So look,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: I'd love to hear from you. What what states? You know,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: as I've said, this is where I dork out. I
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: always thought that we had a pretty good I thought
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: the first three were perfect. I you know, I don't
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: want to get my friend John Ralston Matt, you know
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: I would. If you're asking me which western small state
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: should go first. Should it be Nevada, Should it be Oregon?
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Should it be New Mexico? Maybe you could make an
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: argument for Utah. I like New Mexico the best. I
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: think it it you want to have a Hispanic popular,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: you know, a state with a large Hispanic population. That
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: was one of the one of the rationales for Nevada.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: But there's also you know, it's not just sort of
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: a two you know, it's a it's a two county
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: state in Nevada essentially, and that's less so in New Mexico.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: It's still you know, still Albuquerque is still a big chunk,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: but there's some there. I think it might be an
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: interesting Western test. I'm sorry to see Kansas not put there,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: not apply here. I think Kansas could have been an
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: interesting first in the nation. I think it's kind of
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: a growing state. And if I had been see this
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: is the way. If I were the running a political party,
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: I would also want to use my first in the
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: nation calendar as a way to grow in a state. Right,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I've always believed that i w being first in the
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: nation made it a swing state that naturally demographically Iowa
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: without it, without being first in the nation, without the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: national attention, you know, it was going to lean in
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: the direction of where most rural voters will lean on
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: a given time. Right, it was populous democrat at a time,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: then it can become populist Republican. But there's something about
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: putting a national spotlight on a state that actually has
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: voters behave more like swing voters. And I think you
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: saw that with Iowa being in the national spotlight for
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: that sort of thirty to forty year period. Between sort
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: of seventy six and twenty sixteen. That really did sort
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: of change the nature of the voter in Iowa and
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: made them realize, hey, they took their vote a little
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: extra seriously and really ended up hearing in hearing about
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: politics in stereo in a way that many many state
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: residents don't. So if I were the DNC, I'd be
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out in my calendar, what is this.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: What is a first in the nation state where having
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats run around and organize will actually
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: help you in the future. Well, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska all
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: fall into that category. There are potentially states Democrats could
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: improve their standing in if you had a lot of
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: If you had a first, if it was one of
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: the first four, you'd have a lot more organizing take place,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: You'd have a lot more resources being put into the state,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: and lo and behold, you might have a more competitive
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: landscape in midterm elections in those states. So that would
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: be one way I think about this. And in the
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: South that's where I would I know, I'm sorry to
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: see Mississippi not apply for something like this. I'd be
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: looking at a Mississippi or a South Carolina on that
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: front as a way to do that. Of course, one
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: could argue push back on me and say, well, South
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Carolina has been in the first four and it's not
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: like Democrats have improved their standing in South Carolina. It'd
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: be a fair counterpoint. But in general, getting national Democrats
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: to spend more time in some of these red leading
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: states I think would help them, and it should be
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the same mindset for Republicans. You know, if I were
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: them and they're trying to get Minnesota, I'd be leaning
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: in on maybe get Minnesota in your first four if
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: they want to try to improve I think the reason
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: they've done better in Nevada is that Nevada is in
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: there first four and if New Mexico gets part of
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: the first four and Republican. If I were Republicans, I'd
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: jump on that in a heartbeat to help their presidential
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: candidates talk to Latino voters better. So it all depends.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: If you're a party leader and you're trying to build
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: your party, I think you should use your primary calendar
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: as a way to grow your party. I have a
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: feeling that the DNC may use their primary calendar just
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: simply to try to figure out what's the best way
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: to find the most electable nominee, which is also a
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: very viable rationale. Don't get me wrong, but that's trading
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: sort of long term future for short termism. That would
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: be the one thing man. Having good life insurance is
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was sixteen
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: single mother, now widow. Myself sixteen trying to figure out
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: how am I going to pay for college and lo
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: the time, and it's why I was able to go
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: to college. Little did he know how important that would
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why I
• 43:43
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• 43:46
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• 43:49
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• 43:56
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• 44:35
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• 44:43
  Speaker 1: but trust me, life insurance is something you should really
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: think about, especially if you've got a growing family. So
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: with that, let's let's dive into some questions. Ask Chuck.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Then I'm going to start on the issue of Greenland,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: and let me start here with Chase from Little Rock,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: who is hashtags ash Chuck five timer club. I love it,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: and he writes this, he said, and he included a
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: letter he got from Senator Cotton. He says, Chuck, I'm
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: forwarding you the response I received from Senator Tom Cotton
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I had written to him objecting to Trump's provocations towards
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Greenland and our NATO allies. His reply doesn't address NATO
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: or the issue of provoking a sovereign ally at all. Instead,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: he pivots into a strange history lesson about shipping lanes
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: in the US purchase of the Virgin Islands from Denmark.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Why are so many senators unwilling to challenge Trump even
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: on matters of foreign policy? Whether stakes are so high?
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: It's interesting. That's a very specific answer that he gave.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Let me read you. You included the letter, so I'm
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: going to read it, and it says, dear Chase, thank
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: you for contacting me about President Trump's interest in acquiring
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: Greenland from Denmark. It's good to hear from you, as
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: always as if I'm wondering if you guys are frequent
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: frequent dow frequent correspondence. And he adds this, I've long
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: believed that a Greenland closely aligned with the United States
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: and closed off to Russian China as a vital national interest.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Period I'm going to annotate the latter as we go.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: That's already the case. Greenland is closely aligned with the
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: United States and it is closed off to Russian China.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: This view is consistent with a long history of American statesmen,
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: including President Truman, who in the nineteen forties advocated for
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: purchasing the territory. Fact check true. I also have publicly
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: advocated for the purchase of Greenland since twenty nineteen, which
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: I explained at the time in a New York Times.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I bet wouldn't be the first time that we've acquired
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: territory from Denmark either. President Wilson bought the Danish West
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Indies more than a century ago. We now know them
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: today as the US Virgin Islands. Greenland is very attractive
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: to Russian China for several reasons. Its location in the Arctic,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: its importance to our missile defense systems, it's access to
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: the routes, and its wealth of rare earth minerals necessary
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: for a defense industry, among others. China's attempted to gain
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: influence in the territory, for example, by trying to acquire
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: an old US naval base. Similarly, Russian presence in the
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Arctic continues to grow and present a challenge to our nation.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: We must not allow our adversaries to exercise control in
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: such a crucial region. I understand the concern among some
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: people about President Trump's comments about Greenland, but I would
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: observe that he never rules out any option related to
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: any foreign policy issue, a common practice among past presidents too.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: I'm simply pleased to see the administration officials are engaging
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: on this issue with proper concern for our national security. Look,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: I think he gave you a thoughtful answer, Chase, and
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I do think he believes what he wrote in there.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's interesting what he wrote and what he didn't. Right,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: he's basically saying, don't believe everything you hear from Trump,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: but he's trying to do it in the most polite
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: way possible, which is kind of how Cotton is operated.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: You're right, I think. Look, Tom Cotton is the senator
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: from Arkansas, so in his voters I think like Donald
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Trump more than they like Tom Cotton. One thing Tom
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Cotton is is self aware, and I think he enjoys
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: being a US Senator. I think he'd like to run
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: for president someday, so I don't think he wants to
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: be on the outside of wherever the Republican Party is today.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: So he is consistently I think more so than even
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham tried to find ways to look authentically supportive
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: of Trump rather than coming across frankly like Lindsey Graham,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: which is a bit inauthentic, and how he has you know,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: sort of shifted his alliances over the years when it
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: comes to Trump. But I do want to pick out
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: that you know, China has attempted, but China didn't do
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: it because of our relationship with Denmark and because of
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: our relationship with Greenland, and because of NATO. That's why
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: it didn't happen. So it is everything he says in
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: here is it's true, except it's already the case, right,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: We already have that kind of near autonomy on Greenland
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: on that front. So yes, it's true. With the melting,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: with the melting ice thanks to climate change, the Arctic
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: is being navigated and there is a real fight for it.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: And I think it's you know in this, you know,
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: supremacy in the Arctic. This is one of the great
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: one of the great powers issues. I hope the United
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: States plays the role of Our job is to make
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: sure no country dominates the Arctic, so that there are
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: open shipping lanes and maybe this becomes an easier way
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: to move goods and services. Maybe there are some, but
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: you know, the right now it feels like a land
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: grab that everybody is the way they're talking about it,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: rather than protecting it from nefarious adversaries. So anyway, I
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: I'm very impressed with the tone of the letter. It is.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: It is to me very thoughtful, nothing that would get
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: him in political trouble with the base of the Republican Party.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: And it certainly comes across uh as as something that
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: that that Cotton would be for so in that sense,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: but I you know, I think I think cotton situation
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: is different than others, and I do think he's in
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: a state that is probably much more pro I think
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Cotton is a bit more of an institutionalist than he's
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: going to let on because of the Arkansas constituency. Next question,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: also on Greenland. The situation with Greenland seems like a
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: prime example of Trump being driven by personal pathologies. I know,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: foreign government's build psychological profiles of leaders. Do US political
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: teams ever work with psychologists in this way? Especially given
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: how a typical Trump is. Everyone says he can't be
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: treated like a traditional politician, Yet most responses still seem
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: to ignore the underlying patterns in his behavior. Darren in
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. Actually, Darren, and I'm going to be very
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: careful here. I know an extraordinarily prominent leader in the
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Republican Party who, after Donald Trump got elected, was given
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: by a prominent supporter of this person a detailed paper
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: on narcissistic personality disorder, and from the get go said, look,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: just absorb this and understand this is who you're dealing with,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: and use methods. And in some ways this is where
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Actually I do think these countries have done their psychological profiles.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: I do think they're all using if you look at
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: you know, how to how to manage somebody with narcissistic
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: personality disorder. So for instance, some of the suggestions and
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: how do you deal with somebody with narcissistic personality disorder? Now,
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: I would argue that you know that there's been a
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: lot more and there's one recommendation that says use the
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: gray rock method, meaning be as uninteresting as a gray rock.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: So don't be emotion don't don't react emotionally to something
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: that they're demanding or declaring. And if you notice, that's
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: probably the one recommendation everybody does too much because I
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: think it comes across as appeasement. He hears it when
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: somebody says, oh, that's interesting, which is a way to
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: sort of be non committal in your answer. He may
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: hear then what he wants to hear on that stuff.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: You know, look at One of the other recommendations is
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: communicate via biff, meaning keep it brief, informative, firm, and
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: friendly when you're corresponding with said individuals, particularly in writing,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: which is keep it short, stick to the facts, set
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: a clear conclusion or request, and maintain a neutral, polite
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: tone to avoid giving them a reason to claim you
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: are the aggressor. So the point being is when you
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: go and look up how to deal with somebody who
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: has narcissistic personality disorder, what are some recommendations? Go take
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: a look, because in many ways I think it actually
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: answers your question. The answer is, Darren, yes, governments do this. Yes,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: they've done it with him. And if you see how
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: certain I mean, look at a Claudia Shinbaum, right, she
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: never takes the bait right away, right, and she is
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: you know somebody who's very much she's a scientist, or
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: she is going to do that kind of research. He
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: is going to be somebody who accepts the premise of
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: a psychological profile. We know that's the way Putin operates.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: We know that's the way. I think quite a few
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: governments do that. Certainly the Chinese do this, And so
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: if you look, I actually think that quite a few
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: countries are handling him as if they have been briefed
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: by somebody by saying, how do you handle somebody with
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: narcissistic personality disorder? So I don't know whether that's good
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: or bad. It just is. I think it's probably been
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: more bad than good because it's come across as appeasement,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: and when he gets when he gets appeased, he takes
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: that as a green light yellow light. Next question comes
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: from Zach and he writes Trump's student loan policy hasn't
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: gotten much attention, but repayment is starting, is restarting soon,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: possibly at higher rates, and there still seems to be
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: no real plan. Sure loans should be paid back, but
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: why not make payments more reasonable, lower college costs, or
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: expand forgiveness and credit programs. We're under investing in every
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: level of education, from K to twelve to graduate school.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Take the doctor shortage for example. How can people feel
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: that need when med school can leave them five hundred
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: thousand in debt. Look, I completely agree, and I think
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: that I think this is going to become a more
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: explosive issue because look, I've got a graduating senior this
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: year and finding a job her and her peers. This
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: is not an easy environment. There's a lot of them
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: already panicking. I'm trying to keep my daughter from panicking
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: on this. But you know these are for people looking
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: for jobs in their field, right, even if it's entry
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: level jobs, and so that's it's been hard. Part of
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: it is AI. Part of it is sort of economic
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: paralysis right now because of the international situation that Trump
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: has created. We have a lot of businesses are afraid
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: to do too much investment in one way or the
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: other because nobody's quite sure which way the wind's blowing.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: So all of it has led to what feels like
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: an employment pullback, right. A little bit of its AI
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: contributed a little bit as the current sort of weak economy,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: unstable international environment, mostly due to the American to US leadership.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: That's a toxic mix here, and you're going to think
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: have some angry young voters, and it should trigger some
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: policy ideas like the ones you're suggesting, whether it's you know,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: I wish and this is where I thought Biden's student
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: loan policy was just terrible. There should have been some
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: sort of national service contribution in exchange for getting some
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: of your daddy raised. You know that it's a you know,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: a contribution to the public good in some form or another. Volunteering,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: maybe it's a public works job. Maybe it's getting a
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: medical education because we need more not just doctors, physician
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: assistants for your nurses, et cetera. There's all sorts of
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: ways that it could have been done in a way,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: and I think, frankly because of what we're going to see,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: which is rising youth unemployment, especially with folks under the
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: age of thirty, that you know, the better presidential candidates
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight will likely be thinking this way
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: and making proposals on this. I know Wes Moore, if
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: he runs for president, he's a big advocate of national service.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: He has started basically a pilot program that he'd like
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: to take national in the state of Maryland. And it
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: is also tuition assistance and debt forgiveness is a part
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: of it. So I think I suspect that we will
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: this will become more prominent more as the presidential camp
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: primary campaign begins less so I think in the midterm elections.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: All right, next question comes from a school one of
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: the four the four seas, I guess is Pomona anyway,
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Ben from Colorado here originally from California. I was surprised
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: to hear John Slavitz suggests California could become a swing
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: state based on recent voter trends and pandemic migration. That
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: feels unlikely to me. Am I missing something? Also explaining
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: to cancel high speed rail seem short sighted given its
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: economic impact on the Central Valley and continued public support.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks and go Broncos both Denver and cal Poly Pomona. Well,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: my producer Lauren is happy to hear a go Broncos.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: He's a big time Bronco fan. It is the Broncos
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: still being in the playoffs, you know, getting in the
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: way of our timing on certain tapics here. But I kid, yeah,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: I think that's I never rule out any state swinging
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: a bit, but California seems, I mean the California Republican
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: brand is terrible, right, Their current national Republican brand does
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: not play in California. If the Republican Party's brand were
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: more Arnold Schwarzenegger, unless Donald Trump, then yeah, California could
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: get swinging, right, you know, But Arnold Swarzenegger was no
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: ordinary Republican. If the Republican brand became more centrist, was
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: seen as sort of the party of Silicon Valley and
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: business in a way, but sort of wasn't antagonistic on immigration,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: and wasn't you know, I mean, Silicon Valley wouldn't be
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: half as powerful as it was without immigration, so it
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: would be a natural place for a pro business party
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: to go. Except nationally, this Republican party's pretty anti immigrant.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: So I think you're right right now. But you know, look,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: I think any time you have a one party state,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: there's always a vacuum somewhere that's going to get filled.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's still more likely we'll get an independent
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: kind of like you know, I've always viewed Schwarzenegger as
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: kind of a quasi independent more than he was a Republican,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: And he probably would have won whether he ran as
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: an IE or an R next to his name, Shoot,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: he might have been able to win as a D
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: next to his name. I still think if California doesn't
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: elect a Democrat statewide in a race over the next
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: ten years, it's because somebody won as an I I think,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: not because somebody won as an R. That's my opinion,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: and I may be proven wrong on that front. Look,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: the high speed railed situation in California, I agree with
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: you about the economic impact for the Central Valley. But
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: the it is, it has been a symbol of It
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: is a negative symbol I think for the left, and
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: the inability goes it goes to why the abundance movement
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: has caught fire among some liberals when they're like, you know,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: we can't just keep proposing ideas that take ten or
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: fifteen years. We've got to be able to bring these
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: these these ideas to voters quicker and sooner. And how
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: they do that is I think, you know, if they'd
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: done that, we might already have some high speed rail
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: in California that people would be happy with, right you know.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: You know it's funny the Florida program got you know,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: it never really took off, but then we got some
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: private sector There's a thing called bright line. It's actually
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: starting to get some consumer uptake, if you will, because hey,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: it's great to be able to train from Miami to Orlando.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: It's a heck of a lot easier than driving. And so,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: you know, we still I think the concept of high
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: speed rail is still a popular idea, but I think
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: this was about how hard and how poor the implementation
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: process has been. All right. Last question comes from David P.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: And Scottsdale. He says, you recently outlined three likely midterm outcomes,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: but I think the most probable is a constitutional crisis
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: where Magoline leaders, led by the Speaker, refuse to certify
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: new members from blue districts. Trump has shown he'll do
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: anything to hold power, and dismissing this as overblown seems naive.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: What's your take love the show, David P. Scottsdale. Here's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: the thing, you know, I had a friend of mine
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: say to me once he goes, you know, the biggest
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: mistake we make with Trump failure of imagination. January sixth
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: is one of those that's failure of imagination. But then again,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: what did I begin this podcast with Taco Thursday? Trump
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: always chickens out. Well, January six is a perfect example
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: of a way that he both does and doesn't. Right,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Trump chickened out on January six. You know, I've always
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: the next interview I ever do with Donald Trump. If
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: I do another interview with Donald Trump, miss President, love
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: to sit down with you. But one of the questions
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: I'd ask about January six is why you didn't follow through?
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: Why'd you choke? Why didn't you fire the attorney general?
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Why didn't you fire the Defense secretary? Why didn't you
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: vote the Insurrection Act? All the things he said he
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: could have done? Why didn't he do it? Now? I've
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: heard him recently somebody kind of you know, he said, well,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: I guess I should have seized the voting machines. You're like,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: oh boy, Right, So I say all that because he
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: simultaneously usually chickens out and is willing to touch the
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: hot stove too long. Right, That's sort of his I
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: guess that's his great superpower is is he is convinced
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: people he that he's all words and no action, and
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: he's convinced people, well, there's nothing he wouldn't be willing
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: to try either. But I don't dismiss it. I don't
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: think it's likely A lot of it will depend on
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: what the people around him do. Right, A lot of
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: this will be on Susie Wilds. Right, Mark Meadows let
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: every looney tune person get into the president's here after
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: the election in twenty twenty and got him whipped up
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: and got him thinking all these conspiracies, and he'd borrow
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: from it, and he'd go crazy. Do Susie Wilds have
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: the same open door policy after the midterms, where he'll
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: get looney tuned lawyers who will come in and say,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: you know what you ought to do. Convinced Mike Johnson
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: not to accept this, accept that, et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: So I think we're only in the situation you describe.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: If the battle for the House is under five seats, right,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: the Democrats have a majority, that's five seats are less,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: then I'd be worried about them not seating everybody and
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: trying to do that. If it's a twenty to thirty
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: seat pickup, I don't know how you do it, you know,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: because it states that, yes, look the House of Representatives,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: you know, they ultimately can decide who's in and who's out.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: But it takes a majority. They barely have a working
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: majority right now, and it isn't you know, the percentages
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: aren't zero that there are more Democrats in the House
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: come November first, twenty twenty sixth, then there are living
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Republicans right between Actuary tables. Accidents, things we haven't thought about.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: You know, somebody out of nowhere dropped out of a
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: heart attack in California's first congressional district. Suddenly they're short
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: another member of Congress. That could happen as easily on
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: the Democratic side. So I'm not dismissive and gonna call
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: I'm done, you know, to me after January sixth, we
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have a failure to imagine anymore with Trump, And
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: I think that's why nobody was just dismissive of him
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: talking about Greenland this time, as they were when he
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: mused about Greenland during his first term. So I don't
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: think it's likely. I don't, but I think your scenario
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: would concern me more if the margin, you know, is
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: somewhere five seats or less, and say one seat in
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: the in the SEC. All right, with that, I will
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: put a pin in it. I feel like it's Thursday.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: I should do a little bit of sports. I can't
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: you know it's been in college football for a'm teen weeks,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: but I think I teased then I was gonna have
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: some strong opinions about the Baseball Hall of Fame. And
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: it's not new to have sort of a hot take
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: on the Baseball Hall of Fame. And there's plenty of
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: smart people and dumb people have made different proposals about
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: what should the Hall of Fame do. And you know,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: us baseball fans were weirdly more protective of the Baseball
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame than basketball fans are of the Basketball
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame, which, man, you know, if you have
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: if you have a ten year career and go to
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: three All Star Games, you're going to make the Basketball
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. In baseball, that's never you know, that's
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: you know, we expect something more than that. Right they're there.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: It feels always felt a bit more lenient for the
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Basketball Hall of Fame than with the Baseball Hall of Fame.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: And then the Pro Football Hall of Fame is is
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: they've they have a they sort of the criteria is
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: a mess. Who votes as a mess. There's sort of
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: this committee that rotates, you don't quite know who it is.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Some sports writers are a part of it, but they're
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: not a biggest a bigger part of it. They have
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: acknowledged that they've sort of there were times where they
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: sort of undervalued certain positions. I think the Baseball Hall
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: of Fame is is much better about acknowledging every position
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: and making sure that there are Hall of Famers on
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: all levels. It took a while for the for the
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: prof Again, it's not necessity technically an NFL Hall of Fame.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: It's a Pro Football Hall of Fame. You know, they've
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: been a little slow on the on punters and kickers.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: I was impressed that Devin Hester made it into the
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: NFL Hall of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, where
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: he was primarily got there because he's considered the greatest
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: kick returner of all time. You know, that is not
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: it it is. You know, it's sort of like if
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: I think, you kick, the best kick returner ought to
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: be in the Hall of Fame, but there are you know,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: did he contribute enough as a receiver to you know,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: he never would have made it the Hall of Fame
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: if you just looked at him as a wide receiver.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: It's kind of like the argument that gets made about
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers and I think the entire conversation about pitchers
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: and the Hall of Fame is going to change because
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: you know, you know, most starting pitchers are only asked
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: to go five or six innings. So now the win,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: you know, first of all, three hundred wins isn't going
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: to happen, and even two point fifty is probably going
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: to be a rarity. Two hundred and twenty five wins
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: is probably going to be the new marker, right, everybody
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: with two twenty five or north will probably starting in
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: the twenty first century, if you will, we'll probably definitely
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: get in. But wins in general are seen is not
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: as telling of a statistic as all these other stats
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: that you have. I think the frustration with all of
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: these Hall of Fames is that there's no specific metric, right,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: you just sort of know it when you see it.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: It's always been ultimately for me, the Hall of Fame
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: as a pornography is the old Supreme Court pornography test.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: You know it when you see it, which is why
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: I struggled with the two inductees this week, Carlos Beltran
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: and Andrew Jones. I'm a bigger proponent of Jones into
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame than I would be Beltran And
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: it's just one of those things. Andrew Jones was might
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: be the best defensive center fielder ever. And I think
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: when you're ever known as the best of something ever,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Devin Hester kick returner, you know, you got to figure
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: out how to get that person in the Hall of Fame.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: But then I think, you know, the more data we
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: have now about baseball, the more data that we use
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: to determine who's good at this and who's good at that,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: it is it has increased the odds that the Hall
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: of Fame is turning into the Hall of the incredibly good,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: but not necessarily the best. And I say that because
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: and I think it goes to I don't know, I'm
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: the Baseball Hall of Fame I think has been devalued
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: unintentionally by the decision by sports writers to punish the
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: known steroids guys. And the decision to do that was
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: done out of moral conviction that I respect, which was, hey,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: we got to the Hall of Fame, should be reserved.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: No cheater allowed, right, that's bottom line, right, no cheaters allowed.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: The question is what's the definition of cheating? Right? And
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: that's you know, if you took amphetamines with coffee. You know,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: they're in the sixties, and I remember, I think this
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: was in the ken Burn's Baseball documentary. You know, there
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: was this special coffee, right, and it was essentially emphetamines
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: mixed with caffeine that players took because it was a
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: long season and you needed a jolt of energy. Is
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: that a performance enhancing drug? Right? Where do you draw
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: the line on that, you know? And that's where I
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: think there's always been more gray area with this. I
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: think if you cheat after the league puts in a
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: rule that it's cheating, then that's one thing. But when
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: you had this gray area for so long and these
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: guys sort of, you know, found ways around it it again,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: it obviously created a bit a of a crisis. So
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: we have all these famous players from the nineties not
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: in the Hall of Fame, right, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: Raphael Palm, Merrow, Mark McGuire, who were the most famous
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: baseball players of the nineteen nineties. And it gets to
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: the other part of the name of the thing. It's
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: called the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of purity.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: And I wonder if we are in some ways going
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: out of our way to reward collectively. And I say we,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: I mean sort of the baseball community. I'd love to
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: get a vote. I'd love to My late great friend
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Tim Russeard was on the was on the Cooperstown committee
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: of some former and other man. Sign me up if
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: I could ever get a piece, get on that. But
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: it you know, there's a I think what's fun about
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame is twofold and it's something that
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: I wish more of these leagues would embrace. And at
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: its root it goes to an idea that Bill Simmons
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: I think once did out of page two way back
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: when when he he wanted to do these pyramids or
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: I think levels, Right, you're a top of the pyramid
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: or you know you could come up with it as
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: five star, right, like you know you're a Hall of Famer,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: but are you a are you in the silver Diamond
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: Club wing of the Hall of Fame or are you
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: just in the regular wing of the Hall of Fame? Right?
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: And it would be fun to debate, Hey does so
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: and so belong in this upper tier, the middle tier
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: or the lower tier? Right? You can and you know,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: to me, if you want to make the Hall of
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: Fame relevant to fans today and fans of yesteryear. What
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: is great about it are the debates. It's having the debate.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: So on one hand, I'm glad that we can have
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: a debate about Beltran and Jones. And you know, look,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: it looks like Chase Utley is on the way there.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: Andy Pettitt, Addie Pettitt is close to getting fifty percent
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: of the vote this time. Does he have a chance.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: It was interesting reading Ken Rosenthal about Andy Pettitt because
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: there's always been this question with Pettit. One is there's
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: always been a little bit of association, you know, did
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: he did he? Did he take whatever Clemens was doing?
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: But I think the bigger question mark on Pettitt is
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: the same question you could have about Kurt Shilling, although
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: I think politics is why Shilling isn't it, which is
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: how much did the postseason matter when you make it,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: when you decide whether somebody's Hall of Fame worthy. Andy
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: Pettit's postseason record is unbelievable, and it's and so's Kurt Schilling, right,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: and so should that? You know, not every player like
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: a Ted Williams never got to play in the postseason,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: you know, so is it Is it fair? Is it unfair?
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: Is it unfair to those that don't get to the postseason?
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: So it's not everybody gets there too. You know that
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: a player that happens to be playing for the Dodgers
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: or the Yankees, who frequently make the postseason, they have
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: a better chance at getting opportunities for postseason immortality, which then,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: of course gives them a better chance at getting into
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: the Hall. Well, if you're you know, I guess as
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: a player, it's on you to help lead your team
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: to the playoffs, right, So I, you know, I kind
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: of think the postseason ought to get there. But what
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: was interesting about the Ken Rosenthal column in The Athletic
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: this week explaining his ballot, explaining his rationale, Like, for instance,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: he suddenly decided, you know, the Felix Hernandez, Right, Felix
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: Hernandez is one of those Did he have a long
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: enough career? Right? There was no doubt for about six years,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: it was a given he was the best pitcher in baseball.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: You're like, man, poor Seattle. But he was in Seattle, right,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: had he been in Boston or New York, he'd probably
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: already be in the Hall of Fame, Right, He's who
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: would you rather have pitching CC, Sabbathi or Felix Hernandez
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: in their prime. I don't think it's a it's not
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: even a it's to me, it's not even close. I look,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: I love CEC. He's one of my favorite players. I
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: enjoy Ceci, I enjoy hearing him, I love his story.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: But man, kim me Felix right that that I'd have
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: definitely gotten him. And I think CC benefited from being
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: Yankee right and having more opportunities in the in the postseason.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: But what was interesting is is as we reassess what
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: pictures get in right when the markers of three thousand
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: innings or three thousand strikeouts or I guess it's two
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: thousand innings, three thousand strikeouts, three hundred wins, when those
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: markers are sort of less relevant, less likely because we
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: now have five man rotations, we now have specialty relief pictures,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: And what are we going to do about that? It
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: took us forever to decide should closers get in, and
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: then we've seen over time the best closers of every
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: decade find their way into the Hall of Fame. What
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: do you do about the guys in between? The great
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: hold guys, right, are they going to get some consideration,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: you know? Or are you going to have to be
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: a closer. You're going to have to have saves in
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: order to get there, because I do think the Hall
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: of Fame model reflect the game that is played in
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: that era and how it was played in these days.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: Bullpen's matter more than they ever have before, and specialty
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: pitching certainly matters there. But what's interesting is how Rosenthal
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: admitted it's made him rethink certain guys that he dismissed
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: as Hall of famers before. And pictures that he singled
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: out were Mark Burley longtime Chicago White sock and Cole Hamil's.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: Who's somebody who's when you look at him through a
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: different prism, And it's particularly with the postseason as well,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: you're like, hey, wait a minute, you know, Hamil's is
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: much closer to the Hall of Fame worthy than you realize.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: But then there's another part of this that I don't
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: know how you measure, but I think that matters in
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame, which is really like, did people
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: want their baseball card? Were they considered where you were like,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: oh my god, we're facing who tonight? You got to
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: pitch around that guy or oh boy, so and so
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: ought to be further down the lineup because so and
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: so is pitching, you know it is. And that's the
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: pornography test, if you will to that that that's missing.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: So look, I I think we're I think the all
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: of the Hall of Fames need a reboot. Uh. I
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: think somebody ought to give Simmons some credit and that
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: that the idea of creating different wings within the Hall
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: of Fame would only spark more interest in the Hall
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: of Fame. And you know what's more entertaining than a
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: good debate, since we if we're not going to debate
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: who's in or who's out, let's debate where do they belong?
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: Do they belong in the top tier? And then you
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: would get look, Bonds and Clemens, they need to be in,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: but maybe you don't put them Well I don't know,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: am I going to put Clemens in the all time?
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: You know, in in the sort of the the upper
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: upper wing, you know, the ten you know that where
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: maybe you only allow ten pictures at any one time,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: and the in the top ring of the Hall of Fame, say, well,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: we don't know how much how you know, we know
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: he was Hall of Fame worthy, but you know, then
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: you use the steroid rumors as a way to not
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: give him the top spot. Maybe you do the same
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: with bonds or with gambling with Rose, you do that.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: But I do think all of the Hall of Fames
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: need a reboot. And I have to say, I think
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: I would also try to figure out how to have
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: fans plus writers, plus executives plus current players to all
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: have some say. I wouldn't want any entity to be
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: the dominant portion of the electorate, but I'd love a
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: that the Hall of Fame electorate should be twenty five
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: percent fans, and it should be some sort of maybe
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: you've got to pass certain baseball quizzes to qualify as
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: a voter. Yes, I would have a pull tax for this.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's twenty five percent baseball reporters, baseball writers, it's
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: twenty five percent scouts and executives, and it's twenty five
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: percent active players. And then maybe you would have the
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: committee former Hall of famers be part of the different
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: eras committees. But all of these and I think about
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: it in the same way for basketball, and think about
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: it the same way for football, but in general, I
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: think all of these need some reanimation because I think
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: it would just bring more life into them. And the
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: more debate you have about the Hall of Fame, the
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: more interested people will be in visiting the Hall of Fames,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: because guess what, at the end of the day, they're
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: businesses and you need more interest in your business. And
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: in an odd way, I think Baseball's made Cooper's Town
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: less interesting because of how they've kept certain people out
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: and how they've it's like, it's weirdly, it's like they
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: raised the barrier for some and then lowered the barrier
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: to entry for others. I think it's sent a weird
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: message and it's just made the Hall of Fame generally
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: less relevant than I wish it were. All right, old
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: man sports rant is over with that. I hope you
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend. Let's hope we don't stumble into any
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: sort of geopolitical nightmares over the next ninety six hours. Please.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: I have my new Sphere show coming up this weekend.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: You can always check that out on the new Sphere app.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: I know I haven't promoted that a lot. I don't
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: mean to not promote it here. I hope you've already
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: checked it out. I know I get some questions based
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: on that, so please do. That'll be posting as always
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night, So with that, I'll see you next week.