Latest / Ducks Unlimited Podcast / Prairie Conditions & Duck Predictions | 2026 Habitat Update

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Prairie Conditions & Duck Predictions | 2026 Habitat Update · Ducks Unlimited Podcast

• 0:00
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• 0:31
  Enjoy
• 0:40
  Mike Brasher: I am your host on this episode, doctor Mike Brasher, and I am happy to once again do this sort of annual prognostication and habitat conditions check-in. Joining me, just like last year, is doc Scott Stevens and doctor Steve Adair, both remote this year. Doctor Adair, I think you were with us in person last year, weren't you?
• 1:02
  Steve Adair: I think I was. Yes. Yeah. It was good to be here however it happens. Thanks for having us, Mike.
• 1:08
  Mike Brasher: That's right. We explored a little bit about when you were gonna be back at national headquarters, and I think the wait was gonna be too long, so we said, let's just go ahead and do this remote. So we've got you joining from where are you today? Wyoming?
• 1:19
  Steve Adair: I'm in Sheridan, Wyoming today.
• 1:21
  Mike Brasher: Alright. And doctor Scott Stevens is joining from Parts Unknown. Where are you today? You're not
• 1:28
  Scott Stevens: Kansas in City, Missouri.
• 1:30
  Mike Brasher: What's are you are you going to baseball games there? Are you there for the holidays? Are with your brother?
• 1:34
  Scott Stevens: Yep. All of the above.
• 1:36
  Mike Brasher: All of the above.
• 1:37
  Steve Adair: You better cheer loud. They're not doing too well this year, Scott.
• 1:40
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. Let's just say they have not met expectations that I had set for them nor for themselves, I don't believe.
• 1:47
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. Well, you set your expectations too high perhaps.
• 1:50
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. Well, I was even open for a 500 team, and we're more like a 400 team. So Yeah.
• 1:55
  Mike Brasher: Well, you know, that's a good segue to the conversation today. So we're gonna be talking about expectations and and how those influence our level of satisfaction once we get to later in the year and how that intersects with what we experience. And so, yes, we are today going to look up to the prairies to see, to kind of get some anecdotal reports from the two of you habitat conditions, wetland conditions, there's a lot of chatter out there based on recent rain events that have come across the Canadian Prairies. You guys are there in The US Prairies, and you've got some insights based on some travels that you've taken. And then we're also, I think, going to get into our annual prognostication of pond counts and the B pop numbers that'll be coming out here in, what is this, July, or basically the end of June, So in about
• 2:49
  Scott Stevens: Two months. July, August,
• 2:51
  Mike Brasher: that's right. We expected the first first week of September, think, at least that's when we got it last year. I haven't heard much this year, but I would anticipate something similar. So in about a couple of months, we'll have some actual data to go to this go with this. So let's start with doctor Adair.
• 3:06
  Let's just kinda get your assessment based on where you've traveled, what you've heard, what are people telling you, and what have you seen with regard to wetland conditions across that landscape?
• 3:16
  Steve Adair: Yeah. Thank you, Mike. I mean, overall, I would say the conditions are are variable. There's some spotty areas that seem to have decent water, Eastern Saskatchewan for one. I think the Boreal is in pretty good shape, and, you know, parts of Northern North Dakota were were okay.
• 3:39
  Other areas like South Dakota, Alberta, really dry again. So I think, you know, we we really have this interesting mixed bag again, and, you know, it's gonna depend on how it all rolls up together, you know, where the birds settled and and, you know, where we had good conditions, but, you know, overall, I think it's it's a pretty variable picture this year.
• 4:06
  Mike Brasher: Scott, you did some traveling recently, maybe across South Dakota, and perhaps even a little bit beyond that, but but tell us what you tell us where you were and what you saw, what your impression was.
• 4:19
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. So two weeks ago, I made a trek from Western South Dakota up to Alberta, actually, And so I kind of entered the Prairie Pothole region proper up in Northeastern Montana. I was not impressed. There was not a ton of water there in in kind of that Plentywood country of Montana. And then headed on up north through Southern Saskatchewan, cut through Western Saskatchewan, some places that Steve and I have spent some time in the fall, like Carrabert, Saskatchewan.
• 4:51
  Things were pretty dry there. Although most of the time that I was driving in Saskatchewan, that was getting rained on. So made it to Alberta, kind of Central Alberta. I spent the night by Wainwright and then attended a former colleague's retirement project dedication not not far from Wainwright, and there was there was some water around there in Alberta. Now they didn't start out with that water.
• 5:19
  That water showed up, you know, a couple weeks ago or something. So there was fresh water. There were I saw a decent number of mostly male ducks hanging around, so I assume that meant there were female ducks on nests. I saw pintails. I saw mallards.
• 5:35
  I saw widget, blue winged teal, that that kind of thing. But, yeah, generally, on that trip, I kinda took the tour of the western areas that have tended to be drier and are not in ideal conditions and then then trek back through the mountains. So
• 5:52
  Mike Brasher: You didn't make it over into the Allen Hills region there Southeast of Saskatoon, did you?
• 5:57
  Scott Stevens: I did not. No. I went up through Moose Jaw, went north, a swift current. So, yeah, I I cut further west instead of cutting north. But, yeah, what I have heard is that Allendana Hills area in Saskatchewan has good water.
• 6:13
  Like, they got a bunch of snow. Like, they got May snow. Right? Mhmm. You know, I I got a text from Mitch Wiegman, and I don't remember when it was.
• 6:22
  It was, like, maybe mid May, and his his daughter was building another snowman. And it's like, good grief. She's probably tired of building snowmen by this point in time. But but yeah. So my understanding in Saskatchewan is that from Saskatoon East, of in the parklands, so doesn't go far south into the grasslands.
• 6:44
  But in the parklands, they have very good water. You know, on social media, on Facebook, I was getting notifications up there for roads flooded out. So significant runoff in some of those areas that got snow and, yeah, challenges with roads and and those kind of things being washed out by so much runoff. So there are areas that have lots of water, and I would expect that to be the primary place that were really growing ducks in decent numbers. But those areas are not widespread.
• 7:18
  Mike Brasher: Steve, we have colleagues up in up in Manitoba, DU Canada, Institute for Wetlands and Waterfowl Research. They're just North of Winnipeg. My wife and I have family there in Winnipeg also, and I know, I guess, was it maybe an earlier yeah. It was earlier this month. They had some substantial storms come through.
• 7:37
  What have you heard from our colleagues up there around the with regard to the amount of rainfall, flooding, and then kind of put that in context for us with regard to that particular area within the Prairies and kind of it not being the heart of the Prairies, and so sometimes whenever we hear about these rain events where it it really matters where that falls. Right? And so what have you heard, and how can what does that translate to in your mind?
• 8:01
  Steve Adair: Yeah. Yeah, Mike. And it's been really interesting in in Manitoba this year. You know, Scott and I actually ventured up in in March to Lake Winnipeg to do some ice fishing with former DU Canada chief scientist Stuart Slattery, and we were pretty impressed with the amount of snow that was on the landscape and and talked about it and had to navigate and deal with it. And and we talked to Stuart, you know, soon after it melted, and and most of it went in the ground.
• 8:28
  It's kind of another lesson than, you know, the deficit that there was in the soils and the wetlands, and they didn't pond as much water, you know, right at right at ice out in in April. But you're right. You know, since then, they've had some, you know, pretty significant downfalls. We were talking to our colleagues up there last week, and they've had, you know, flooding and I think, what did they say, half of their yearly rain in a week up there. So pretty good conditions right now, but as you mentioned before, timing is everything too.
• 9:05
  When the when the birds go through and the water's not there, they keep going, and we don't really see birds, you know, filter back when when water shows up in the prairies later. So, you know, our senses and the reports we hear that a lot of birds move through, and and as you mentioned too, some of that water was really on that eastern fringe of the Prairie Puddle region, which doesn't tend to be, you know, as productive because there's not as much nesting cover on that landscape, and there's been more wetland drainage, which exacerbates some of these flooding conditions as as well. But but we'll take the water when we can get it, and and I think it'll, you know, be a boost for the late nesting species, and we'll see some production out of it, and it sets the stage for better conditions next year. You know, if we get carryover water that freezes in the fall, you know, we're really set up for a better spring.
• 10:00
  Mike Brasher: Think I'm gonna I'm gonna offer some thoughts here, and you you guys, notably Scott, you can reel me back in if you think I'm going too far because that's
• 10:07
  Scott Stevens: one of most important play OEM.
• 10:09
  Mike Brasher: In this in this episode. But, you know, if we if we look at you you guys were talking about the timing of the water matters, the timing of when that rain, if we're talking rain or if we're talking snow, you know, if if it was there early enough to benefit the ducks as they're migrating back through. This year, and I think we may have touched on this briefly in a previous episode, this year has been different, at least based on what I've heard from various people, has been different from the past two years in terms of it being colder longer, or I guess maybe I would say spring arriving a little bit later this year than the past two years, so the migration was maybe more normal, I think, is what one person was telling me, maybe it was Johan that was saying, this has been like what I would consider a more normal year in terms of the timing of the migration. The past couple of years, it was a warmer, earlier spring, which led to that earlier migration, but this is a little bit more normal, and we had maybe a bit more of that rain that fell prior to all the ducks making it back there.
• 11:17
  I'm not saying that it's a grand landscape full of water by any stretch, but when you look at this year compared to last year, am I wrong to be a little optimistic that things shaped up a little bit better than the previous two years with regard to conditions being more conducive to attracting ducks as they settle and as they as they migrate back into that area, Scott, just relative to the last two years.
• 11:45
  Scott Stevens: We should always check ourself when we wanna be optimistic to make sure
• 11:49
  Mike Brasher: know. That's why you're on here.
• 11:51
  Scott Stevens: Exactly. Mister what was it? You're you find it. Cloud in any
• 11:56
  Steve Adair: silver lining. Yeah. Doom and gloom Stevens. Yeah.
• 11:59
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. No. I I think that's generally true. Like, North Dakota, Eastern North Dakota definitely got rain prior to birds settling there. And, like, some of the snow that we talked about in Saskatchewan happened early enough before birds were making their decisions about where to settle on the landscape.
• 12:19
  But like Steve talked about, the big dump of rain that we got, you know, in places like Okamek, you know, that's kind of interlake out of true pothole country. You know, there was a bunch of rain, but, you know, wasn't wasn't in the prime areas, and it came late. So, you know, there are benefits to that. Like, when we get when we get rain like we did here recently in some areas of Canada, can improve conditions, can increase maybe renesting rate, improve conditions for brood survival, all positive things. It's just not gonna redistribute pairs that would have settled in, you know, early May, late April for some species as to where they're gonna breed.
• 12:59
  So there is benefits. There's not the benefits if we have the water there the whole season.
• 13:04
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. Steve, is that consistent with kinda your thinking and what you've heard and observed this year?
• 13:11
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I think you're right.
• 13:12
  Steve Adair: That was a really good point you made, Mike, about that migration seemed to be more normal. That same trip when Scott and I drove, you know, to Canada through Northern North Dakota in March, there was a good bit of sheet water there, but not a lot of ducks yet. So it did seem like they were, you know, they were still further behind. And when we had our annual training event, Ducks Unlimited in in Diesmarck, which, you know, both of you were at as well, it seemed like all the birds really hadn't showed up there yet. So so I would agree that it was it was drawn out.
• 13:43
  And I also heard that, you know, the boreal was frozen later this year as well, so that may have, you know, held the birds back a little bit. They really like to push that snow and ice line in the spring. So I do think it was a more normal or maybe even somewhat delayed migration this year, which would benefit that late that later moisture that came.
• 14:06
  Mike Brasher: You know, since that settling period for birds arriving back, my observation, and I I think looking at some of the maps here, would suggest that the Canadian side of the Prairies has received generally better precipitation than The US side. There's still some, and this is reflected also in the US Fish and Wildlife Service pilot reports that came out a couple of weeks ago. The US side of the Prairies, with a few exceptions, there are still a number of areas that are quite dry, and Scott, you've kind of talked about that as well. Certainly, that South Eastern South Dakota, I think, has been noted as an area that's still quite dry, then I was looking on the Canadian Wildlife Service website earlier today at the distribution of rainfall percent of departure over the past thirty days and sixty days, and I was expecting to see a landscape that was kinda at or above the normal levels of precipitation across most of that landscape, but I was surprised to not find that. It's actually more spotty.
• 15:15
  There are two broad areas, well, one big area in Alberta where precipitation levels over those time periods have been well above average, but outside of that, all the other areas have received rainfall, which is good, but there are very few places, the only other exception being sort of around certain small areas in South Central Manitoba where those precipitation levels have been well above average. Most everything else is kind of on track, average, maybe slightly below average, but there's variability across that landscape. So for us back here in the South, when we see these big rain events spinning across the Canadian Prairies for a day or two days, we get it's easy for us to get really excited, but the reality is there's even the amount of rainfall hasn't been spectacularly high across that entire broad landscape, and even where it has fallen, there's probably some areas where it's still soaking into the ground for multiple years of of drought. And, Scott, that kinda sounds like that's what you were saying and observing whenever you drove up through there a few weeks ago.
• 16:25
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. That's right. I mean, I would say, you know, when an inch of rain falls in a twenty four hour period, like, none of that's running anywhere, right, typically. Now I I was looking at the last twenty four hours of precipitation because Manitoba got another dose, and there are some areas that I've spent some time in the fall. The southern part of Manitoba that got, like, three and a half inches of rain last, you know, last twenty four hours, it's like, yeah, that's probably running off and changing wetland conditions.
• 16:54
  So, you know, we talked about what happened further east in, like, Stonewall and Winnipeg. They got, like, nine inches of rain in one night. Like, that's definitely flooding, you know, flooding agricultural fields filling up what wetlands are there, but that's really kinda Red River Valley country. Right? So so when you look at that, yeah, the amount matters.
• 17:16
  The time line that it comes matters. You know, you get get an inch of rain in an hour, and some of that might run, but an inch of rain over twenty four hours is a different story. So like like is typical for us, the answer is it depends. You know? All of that makes difference.
• 17:32
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. I was telling somebody the other day as walking into the office, they were asking me, you know, how are the ducks doing? And it's like, well, they're up north doing their thing. It's their time of year to breed and produce new ducks, and it's like, you know, habitat conditions are, if you look across that broad landscape, I'd probably say they're close to average, maybe a little bit above average if you were able to amass it across that entire landscape, I said, by and large, what we see over a long period of time is a small number of years where wetland conditions are well above average, and a small number of years where wetland conditions are well below average, or really dry. And a lot of times, and most of those years are somewhere in between, you know, and with some variation around that, and that's kind of where it sounds like we find ourselves again.
• 18:18
  There are some parts of that prairie landscape that are doing quite well, some parts remain quite dry, and there's a lot of in between all across that landscape, and so this is one of those years when you look across it, in total, you may be looking at something that's about average, and maybe if we're certainly, as we get if you're looking at how we're how we're we're doing, you know, to normal this time of year, maybe a little bit above average, and like you said, maybe that that will benefit some of those later nesting or re nesting species, but still, a lot of lot of variation out there.
• 18:54
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. What might be relevant is if we tried to estimate, okay, what proportion of the overall Prairie Puddle Region is in that wet above average conditions, like, where where I would start the bidding was I I would say maybe 20%, but probably not much more than that. Like, if if that. So, you know, it's like parklands of Eastern Saskatchewan, some some of Manitoba, you know, a a bit of North Dakota, almost none of South Dakota. So, you know, if you think about it that way, that's that's probably useful context.
• 19:32
  It's like, hey. 20% of the total may be in pretty good shape. So Yeah. Your 20% may actually be kinda on
• 19:40
  Mike Brasher: the high end based on the map that I'm looking at here. I'm looking at at the precipitation totals, departure from average for Canada, and it's, I'm also looking up in in the is it the Peace Parklands? That's it's if I'm looking at this correctly, it looks pretty dry up there. Do you have a have you heard from anyone up there?
• 20:02
  Scott Stevens: I haven't heard from anybody up there. I know that, you know, that was a spot that a bunch of green winged teal that that a friend of ours had radio transmitters on trek through that area. Some stopped to breed, so there's must be must be some water there.
• 20:18
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. I've been trying to find get orient oriented to that. But, anyway, we don't have time to do that really on the fly, but okay. Well, I tell you what, let's take a break. We still need to talk about the other really important variable in this equation, that is the duck population, and we will talk about that, and we'll also yeah, they won't take some time to do our prognostication and see where each of us thinks the the numbers are gonna come in.
• 20:43
  So stay with us, folks, till we got some more. We'll be right back.
• 20:52
  VO: Stay tuned to the Ducks Unlimited Podcast sponsored by Bird Dog Whiskey after these messages.
• 21:07
  Mike Brasher: Hey, everyone. Welcome back. I am here with doctor Steven Ayr and doctor Scott Stephens, and we're talking about breeding habitat conditions and breeding population prognostications as well, and so we're going get into the duck side of the equation right now, and that is an important thing to remember, and we've reminded folks, if we look back at last year, the last two years, the breeding population estimate for the traditional survey area, that's that Midcontinent area, has been virtually unchanged. It was like 33,900,000 each of those last two years, 33,980,000, that was about 4% below the long term average, and so this is kind of where we start talking about what we think we might, how the conditions from last year would kind of shape what we might have expected to return this year. Who wants to go first on that?
• 22:06
  Doctor Adair, how about I toss that to you? What are the things that we need to think about when talking to people and saying, okay, we've discussed habitat conditions, but you've to remember, it's a breeding population that returns that is that's also really, really important here, and so what do we need to be thinking about there?
• 22:22
  Steve Adair: Yeah. Quite a few quite a few different variables come into play in my mind, Mike. I think, you know, where those birds were those 33,900,000 birds settled last year? We know that, you know, parts of that breeding landscape are are more productive than others? What were the what were the pond counts like?
• 22:42
  So, you know, what resources were available to them to, you know, get the number of roots that they need to lay eggs and have good habitat for brood rearing, and how long how long did that water last that was there? You know, we know as things dry out, brood survival can can go down. So I think it's that, you know, end of the summer population that's pretty important. So I you know, to me, I think, you know, all those things added up to a pretty average production, the below average production year last year. I think we heard a number of reports about, you know, not that many young in
• 23:25
  Scott Stevens: the fall flight. I don't
• 23:26
  Steve Adair: know that I saw the age ratio data yet, so I don't know if that's that's come out. But but my my sense last year was that, you know, production was average to below average, and so we didn't have a a real strong returning population this year.
• 23:43
  Mike Brasher: Yeah, Steve. That would be I I think there's evidence to support that that conjecture there. The pond count last year in the Canadian Prairie was down 5% from the previous year and down 27% from the long term average, so down about, you know, just over a quarter percent, or, well, 25% from long term average, and then in The US Prairies, that's where year over year we saw the largest drop, where it went from 2,400,000 in '24 to 1,600,000 in '25 for a 34% year over year drop in pond counts in The US Prairies, down 6% from, or 6% below the long term average, and when you combine it across the Prairies, you're looking at down 20% or 20% below the long term average. So, from the standpoint of how were wetland conditions last year and what was that likely to do from a production standpoint there in Prairies, that super productive area was almost certainly below average. So, Scott, yeah, that that would that would make a case for
• 24:56
  Scott Stevens: Lower breeding population. Lower
• 24:58
  Mike Brasher: lower production last year and and lower production last year than the previous year, and so if you're starting both of those seasons with roughly the same breeding population size, then, yeah, I think you would be hedging to a slightly lower breeding population size that would have returned north, if I'm thinking about that right.
• 25:24
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I I think that makes sense too. We also have the benefit or the bias of having a little bit of information here already. Right? We have the North Dakota state survey.
• 25:35
  And prior to that coming out, you know, some of the reports that I had seen, it's like, oh, parts of North Dakota were wet. Well, all told in their survey, it was drier, and there were fewer ducks than last year. So it's like, oh, that's, you know, maybe not what I would have predicted, you know, without having that data in hand. But, yeah, I think I think, you know, calling production below average is reasonable for last year. So we're likely to have one of the smaller breeding populations settling on the prairies and elsewhere this year that we've seen in quite a while.
• 26:12
  Right? So so that creates a challenge even if we have some improved conditions over, say, 15% of the PPR.
• 26:22
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. For sure. Are we are we ready to are you we equipped to sort of make our prognostications
• 26:28
  Scott Stevens: for You gotta you gotta and and ponds? You gotta give us some context on last year's numbers.
• 26:34
  Mike Brasher: Oh, okay. That's right. Alright. So context for last year. Let's start with ponds, right, because we've already talked about habitat conditions or at least precipitation snowfall leading into the leading into the spring, I think we've set the stage for maybe something that's at least similar, if not better than last year.
• 26:49
  At least that's my what what I heard. But but you guys can, you know, obviously, Scott, you'll probably take it in the opposite direction. Think we're we're pretty prepared for that. So last year, total pond count was 4,180,000, which as a reminder, was 20% below the long term average, so that was 4,180,000. The prior year, 2024, it was 5.159, 5.16, basically, the prior year.
• 27:18
  So so that's kind of where we are
• 27:21
  Scott Stevens: on that. 4.2 to 5.6 is
• 27:24
  Mike Brasher: the range? No. Basically, 4.2 to 5.2.
• 27:27
  Scott Stevens: Okay. Gotcha.
• 27:29
  Mike Brasher: I mean, that those are the two. Unless you think it's gonna be well above where we were in 2024, I'd have to I I'm not I don't recall exactly what the big driver there was. Well, I do too. It was big rainfall that fell in The US Prairies immediately before
• 27:45
  Scott Stevens: Right.
• 27:45
  Mike Brasher: The immediately before the survey was conducted. Remember that. What are you what are you thinking? Where where are you where are you gonna go this year?
• 27:53
  Steve Adair: Are you are you gonna make us do, like, a point estimate, or do we get to do a range or
• 27:58
  Scott Stevens: oh, we gotta do a point estimate. No point estimate. Don't get confidence limits on your guess, man. Come on.
• 28:03
  Steve Adair: Okay. I'm just trying to I'm just trying to assess, you know, my strategy.
• 28:07
  Scott Stevens: You want plus or minus 2,000,000 birds? Is that what you want? Yeah. Mike, I'd argue on ponds. So we have seen some improvement in some areas.
• 28:17
  So if we were at 4.2 last year, my question is whether we get to the 5.2 that we were the year before. And, you know, maybe I'll say about 5,000,000 ponds. So some improvement in ponds, but then I'll I'll hold off on the what that means for ducks.
• 28:36
  Mike Brasher: Okay. I've already written mine down here on the sheet of paper, so you're not gonna influence me. Okay. I can't speak for doctor Adair He's easy influence. Wrote his down or not.
• 28:45
  So alright. What do you got, Scott or I'm I'm Steve.
• 28:48
  Steve Adair: Oh, I I'm I'm kinda in between Scott and last year, so I'm thinking 4,500,000 because I think there's a little bit improvement, but I think there there was some drying out too, so I'm gonna
• 28:59
  Scott Stevens: Oh, it keeps me gonna be more pessimistic than I am. I'm
• 29:01
  Steve Adair: pretty sure. Yeah. So but yeah. This this is yeah. Mark that down.
• 29:04
  That didn't happen too often.
• 29:05
  Mike Brasher: So Adair went 4.5. So Stevens went five point just five right on the nose?
• 29:13
  Scott Stevens: Five right on the nose.
• 29:14
  Mike Brasher: Five right on the nose. And this is where I could do my prices right, five point o one. Right? But but I'm not gonna do that because I'd already written this down.
• 29:21
  Scott Stevens: Would you
• 29:21
  Mike Brasher: write down? I wrote down 5.1. Okay. So I think we're gonna be about where we were two years ago. I I don't yeah.
• 29:32
  I don't have any data to to substantiate that other than no more than you, that either of the either of you do. We if
• 29:38
  Scott Stevens: we had data, we wouldn't have to guess.
• 29:39
  Mike Brasher: That's right. That's right. Alright. Let's move to alright. Now what do we wanna do for total ducks?
• 29:46
  Scott Stevens: Give give us the same context.
• 29:48
  Mike Brasher: Well, context, the last two years, it was thirty three point nine eight. Both years. Yeah. Total ducks, thirty three point nine eight.
• 29:55
  Scott Stevens: We're gonna call that 34.
• 29:57
  Mike Brasher: I'm gonna call it 33.98.
• 30:00
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. We we all know that precision of that is, like, that's 34,000,000 ducks.
• 30:05
  Mike Brasher: K. Let me write down my number here. Okay. I got my number. So, Scott, what you got?
• 30:13
  Scott Stevens: I got 32,000,000 total ducks. 32 total. Right on the nose? Right on the nose.
• 30:19
  Mike Brasher: K. What you got, doctor Adair?
• 30:21
  Steve Adair: I got 31. I'm below him again. I don't know what's going on.
• 30:26
  Mike Brasher: I promise y'all we haven't done this. We we haven't fixed this because I'm gonna come in right at thirty two point one. You're So it's just just yep. 100,000 above you.
• 30:38
  Scott Stevens: Maybe Chris Isaac can look at that sheet to make sure he didn't change that number. Like, we may need some confirmation on that.
• 30:43
  Steve Adair: Yeah. A bit
• 30:44
  Scott Stevens: scribbled out.
• 30:45
  Steve Adair: That's evidence that
• 30:46
  Mike Brasher: we've changed. No scribbling out here. Alright. Now then, we we we need to do Mallard too because this is this is an interesting one. It was also pretty similar, pretty unchanged, what was unchanged from '24 to '25.
• 30:59
  It came in at 6.55 last year, and before that, it was 6.6. So yeah. Let me it was 655 last year. So alright. I've got my number.
• 31:15
  I'm trying to remember. I'd have to go to the table. A couple years ago, it was down was it down to 6.2 a couple years ago?
• 31:25
  Scott Stevens: I'd have to Problem. That sounds about right.
• 31:28
  Mike Brasher: It's I think that I think that was about right. I should be more prepared on this, but I don't have that I don't have that Mallard number here handy right off the right off the top. So 6 essentially, 6.5, 6.6 each of the last two years. Where do you think we'll be this year, Scott?
• 31:46
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. This one's tougher because some of the water is in sort of core breeding area for mallards. Right? Like, especially that Eastern Parklands area. So I think we're gonna pick up we're gonna have more birds settle in those areas.
• 32:02
  So if we were at, would would we say, 6.5?
• 32:05
  Mike Brasher: Yep. 6.5.
• 32:06
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I'll I'll go 6.6 for mallards.
• 32:10
  Mike Brasher: Oh, really? Okay. So basically unchanged because last year, was six five five, and near prior, 6.6. Yeah. Okay.
• 32:19
  Scott Stevens: Point Steve gonna hold with his pessimism?
• 32:22
  Steve Adair: Six point Yeah.
• 32:22
  Scott Stevens: I'm gonna
• 32:23
  Steve Adair: continue the same trend here. I'm gonna be I'm gonna be 6.4. I think I think they're gonna be down a little bit, but you're you're right, Scott. They do have they do have more options than other species given their breeding distribution.
• 32:37
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. I'm gonna go 6.2. Oh, wow. Just a good mic. Yeah.
• 32:43
  Yeah. And it was 6.13, yeah, two years ago in '23.
• 32:49
  Scott Stevens: So That's that's not a bad guess either. Like, I wouldn't be So I wouldn't be totally amazed, but that's how stable.
• 32:55
  Steve Adair: Pretty stable from allergies overall, man. Think we're all kind of like, you know
• 32:59
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. None of us are calling for a 10% increase or a 15% drop, anything like that, and I think that's what we've seen the past few years, and I think that's I mean, should take some we should take, I wouldn't say comfort, but we should, there's something to be taken away from that, let me just say that. Some satisfaction maybe in knowing that it's felt like things have been really, really bad for the past number of years, yet the the duck population has found a way, at least over the past several years, three years or so, to remain pretty stable. It's below average, below the long term average, granted, but at least in terms of where we've been the last three years, we haven't seen huge fluctuations across those years.
• 33:41
  Scott Stevens: At the local level, there would be folks who would disagree with us.
• 33:45
  Mike Brasher: That is true. I under understand that. We kinda look at the bigger picture with We
• 33:51
  Scott Stevens: try to.
• 33:51
  Mike Brasher: All the data to bear here.
• 33:53
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. We try to.
• 33:54
  Mike Brasher: So we don't have we haven't talked about the Eastern Survey Area. Haven't talked about what's gonna be happening out west. We don't have I haven't I'm trying to remember if I've seen any pilot reports from the Eastern Survey area yet. Most of the ones were were they in there?
• 34:12
  Scott Stevens: They're in there. Yep. At least pictures and and that kind of stuff. I I'm not I didn't read all the pilot blog postings, but some of the pictures that were in that.
• 34:23
  Mike Brasher: You're you're a pictures kinda guy. Just let me just show me the pictures, and I'll take from that what what the situation is.
• 34:29
  Scott Stevens: Now now the challenge is eastern survey area. Yeah. I mean, for me, it kinda looks the same every time they fly it. Right?
• 34:35
  Mike Brasher: I know.
• 34:36
  Steve Adair: And and the day is water is more stable for sure.
• 34:39
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. Same thing in the Boreal. So, you know, we we spend a bunch of time talking about the Prairies, which is really the dynamic system that can go from very wet to very dry, and, you know, the the other systems in general just don't fluctuate that much. They're you know, if if if we only had ducks breeding in the other systems, like, the answer to the question of how many ducks we're gonna have this year would be about as many as we had last year. Yeah.
• 35:05
  That's right. The conditions just don't change that much.
• 35:08
  Steve Adair: That's right. Yeah. Yeah. Even though the birds I mean, we talk we talk a lot about, you know, how the birds overfly the prairies and and
• 35:16
  Scott Stevens: Some of them.
• 35:17
  Steve Adair: You know. Yeah.
• 35:18
  Scott Stevens: Some of them go straight there, right, like, midge
• 35:20
  Steve Adair: and scoff. No. I mean, yeah, I mean, when they're dry, and then and then, you know, and it is really important for, I think, their annual survival, but we don't see a big uptick in numbers from the boreal or the Arctic breeding landscape. So it's a it's it's an interesting thing. So it's important, but it doesn't really boost the the breeding numbers.
• 35:42
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I I mean, the other thing that we talk about is, you know, sometimes there are folks who would like to say, well, you know, we've got challenges in the prairies. Maybe these other areas can compensate for them.
• 35:53
  Steve Adair: Well, that's right.
• 35:54
  Scott Stevens: And the answer to that is no. Sorry. If history
• 35:57
  Steve Adair: if history's our god, it never has. Right?
• 36:00
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. It it can't make up for it. It can provide a base of support, but it can't compensate for the lost capacity that results in the prairies, either as a result of of annual precipitation deficits or long term permanent loss of that habitat.
• 36:16
  Scott Stevens: That's right.
• 36:17
  Mike Brasher: That's right.
• 36:17
  Scott Stevens: So I think that's that's an important take home for folks. It's like that's you know, probably there are some folks who are like, man, these guys, they get on and they talk about the prairies and, like
• 36:27
  Mike Brasher: Same thing every year.
• 36:28
  Scott Stevens: Yada yada yada. Prairie's dry, prairies, you know, wet, like, whatever. That's why.
• 36:34
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. You know, it it is it's an interesting point, Scott, because we haven't had this medium to get on and talk about this the the way we do it, except for the past five or six, you know, seven years or so, a little bit longer if you throw Facebook in there and social media, but that hasn't been a very deliberate effort, and so it kind of feels like this is the same message year after year, but there's probably a reason for that. Over the long term, as I've said, you know, most of the years, you're going to be somewhere in the middle. It's going to be either near or on one side or the other of those kind of average conditions, and it's it's those rare instances where you'll get the extreme to extreme drought or extreme wet, and those just don't come along very often.
• 37:23
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I mean, the the last time my anchor for the last time it was widespread wet across the Prairies writ large was 2011. Right? So that's 15 ago now. I mean, it doesn't seem like that long ago, but it is.
• 37:37
  So, you know, that would be that far right tail of the normal distribution, and we're kind of in that middle hub part. Right? So
• 37:45
  Steve Adair: Yep. And you do have lingering effects, right, from either peak populations or trough populations. So That's right. You know, they stay up for a while as conditions decline, and then when it's really dry, it takes them a while to catch back up. So
• 38:00
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. That's right.
• 38:01
  Steve Adair: Interesting impacts that way. But yeah. And, you know, Alaska's pretty interesting too. You know? I mean, it's a more stable landscape, and but there's some things happening up there that we're, you know, trying to understand as well.
• 38:13
  Like, there's been some declines in bird numbers in some of those surveys, and, you know, despite, you know, not huge changes in wetlands, but, you know, timing, things like that up there, you know, like winter bugs hatching, winter vegetation, you know, sprouting compared to when the birds are there and breeding. So that's gonna be an interesting landscape to watch, you know, I think over the next decade as we learn more there.
• 38:38
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. Yeah. And we've got we've got colleagues out west who are focused on that now, trying to figure out what's going on with some of those challenges. But, yeah, when you just look at the survey data, they're pretty striking declines. So figuring out exactly what's behind that will be important moving forward.
• 38:54
  Mike Brasher: And we've got the Great Lakes. You know, we got conditions there in the Great Lakes, at least in Wisconsin and Michigan. I think they went into the breeding season with pretty healthy wetland conditions. I think there were parts of Minnesota that were pretty dry based on some of what I've I've heard. You guys heard anything out of Minnesota?
• 39:10
  Steve Adair: I haven't seen that survey yet. You know? They they have an annual survey, and I've heard, yeah, kinda mixed reports, you know, wet and dry and that
• 39:18
  Scott Stevens: sort thing.
• 39:18
  Mike Brasher: Depending on what part of the state you're at. Yeah. Scott, anything that you've
• 39:22
  Scott Stevens: I haven't I haven't driven through Minnesota, like, now that I live mostly south of there now. I don't track through there.
• 39:29
  Mike Brasher: So Yeah. So, yeah, Wisconsin had a, I think, a duck population estimate that was near, maybe slightly up from last year. I think I think pretty unchanged if I'm remembering, but I do know that Taylor Finger, state waterfowl biologist there, told me that when they conducted that survey, the southern part of the state kind of had breeding conditions in full swing, but the northern part of the state was still quite frigid. Had a, you know, maybe slightly delayed or more normal timing of spring, and so it was a difficult thing for them to try to figure out how best to survey that, kind of given the different stage of that breeding migration period, but wetland conditions were good. They had abundant rainfall prior to that, same thing with many parts of Michigan, so unless something has changed, I think they went into that breeding season in pretty good shape and able to support whatever ducks that return there.
• 40:26
  As we've talked about, Eastern survey area, I don't think any of us expect dramatic swings in either any kind of index of wetland conditions that would come out of there or any kind of, you know, estimate from breeding duck populations. The Northeastern US, I'm trying to recall, I think they may be in a similar situation as the Great Lakes in terms of having improved a little bit, confess that I'm not totally confident on that. We'll get somebody on here at some other point down in in the future to talk about how things were there, and we'll see some reports, I I guess, at at at some point with regard to the b pop numbers out of that area. So it won't be long now. We'll we'll get those numbers in hand, and and, you know, folks will now is the time to be getting ready for the hunting season that is just a couple of months away.
• 41:18
  It's kinda crazy to think it's it's gonna be here before we know
• 41:21
  Scott Stevens: That's right. Yep. It will be here. It doesn't it doesn't feel like it now. It's hot.
• 41:25
  Mike Brasher: I I know. I know. We got the big heat dome on us right now, and we've got a few more days of that. I guess y'all probably do too. Y'all have any big hunting trips?
• 41:32
  Any anything planned? Any, you know, getting together? You probably have some normal hunts that you're gonna take, and, Scott, you typically you typically typically go up and try to target blue wings there early on. You're try to get up and do that again?
• 41:46
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I've been waiting to see because when I was there last year, habitat conditions were very dry in Manitoba where I've went. So one of the areas that I frequent is an area that got, like, 3.7 inches of rain last night, so that could change the equation. But, yeah, I'll be I'll be tracking that carefully for sure.
• 42:04
  Mike Brasher: Now would would that be a a good development for you? Does that make it more challenge it is. Okay.
• 42:10
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I mean, because at that time of year, at least for Blue Wings, they're staging. Right? And at least in the past, this one area, like, it was dry. Like, there was not much for stage shallow staging habitat for teal.
• 42:24
  So even rain now, if it provides that food resource, they'll stage there come August, September. So Yeah.
• 42:31
  Mike Brasher: Okay. Doctor. Adair, any any big trips on your horizon?
• 42:34
  Steve Adair: I'm still watching watching as well. Mike, you know, I'd love to get over to the prairies if we can maintain some water and some of those key landscapes and and then get south again, and, of course, do some local hunting. But, yeah, my trips are kind of a wait and see mode right now depending on how things shake out.
• 42:52
  Mike Brasher: I think I'm in the opposite heading in the opposite direction, I think, this year from from from you guys. I'm I'm trying to line up for, you know, annual leave, take some personal trips, head to South Texas, for another early season Dove shoot with our good friend, Doctor. Lovretsky. He still had some of my shotgun shells out there that I told him to hang on to, and so he said it gives me an excuse to get back there get back there, and I I can also like the time to do that. But, yeah, that'll be a personal trip to get out there
• 43:21
  Scott Stevens: and A $9 box of dove loads? Just a good excuse to drive to Texas.
• 43:26
  Mike Brasher: I'd probably fly.
• 43:27
  Scott Stevens: You know?
• 43:28
  Mike Brasher: We'll see. We'll see.
• 43:29
  Steve Adair: Are are those white white wings and morning doves, Mike?
• 43:32
  Mike Brasher: White wings and morning doves. Yeah.
• 43:33
  Steve Adair: Okay. That's fun, Yeah.
• 43:35
  Mike Brasher: And then and then I'm looking to take some time off. Also, I think I'm gonna try to do this with Phil to to maybe get out to New Mexico or Arizona. I don't know exactly where we would be to maybe shoot a Mexican duck, so I'm gonna try to
• 43:50
  Steve Adair: get out
• 43:50
  Mike Brasher: just, you know, just to experience some different places and different types of hunting and different species as well. Last year, Doctor. Mark Petrie and I took some time off and met up in Washington and got in on some sea duck hunting up there, surf scoder, long tail, and white winged scoder, and so that was super cool. And so those kinds of trips aren't necessarily high volume hunts, but they're a unique experience, a new place, and especially when you can pair it with friends and colleagues, in the case of Doctor. Petrie being both of those, but then we also met up with some DU colleagues and DU volunteers and spent some good time with them.
• 44:34
  So, you know, those are the type of things that I might try to find some time to do again this year.
• 44:39
  Steve Adair: Nice. Cool. I got out to beach sinks last year right after they had that flood. They had roads closed everywhere, and the place I went to, the birds were really good a week before, and then it flooded, and they just spread out all over that area. So timing's kind of important for that.
• 44:56
  Timing water is important for your hunting trips as well as for breeding season.
• 45:00
  Mike Brasher: Yeah. And and, Scott, I think I I gotta get up there and and do a pheasant hunt with you at some point too. I think we talked about that.
• 45:07
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. You need you need to come to South Dakota for pheasants.
• 45:09
  Mike Brasher: It's My calendar's gonna be filling up already.
• 45:11
  Steve Adair: I like that.
• 45:12
  Scott Stevens: We we we run into January. So
• 45:14
  Mike Brasher: Well, I know.
• 45:15
  Steve Adair: I know.
• 45:15
  Scott Stevens: It's it's a long season. Yeah. Yep. The the other one I do have on the slate is, I got an invite to go to Waterhen Lodge in Manitoba. And Okay.
• 45:25
  In as I was thinking about that, a friend who carves decoys on Facebook posted a picture of some decoys that were made, historic decoys that were made for hunting at Winnipegosis, the Waterhen area. So I actually made six redheads modeled after that that I will take to Waterhen Lodge to float in kind of the historic waters that they were designed for.
• 45:49
  Mike Brasher: So Have you have you have you floated them yet? Have you tested them?
• 45:52
  Scott Stevens: I haven't floated them, but they've got Yeah.
• 45:54
  Mike Brasher: You better do that.
• 45:55
  Scott Stevens: They've got pretty good ballast in the keel. So I think You don't
• 45:58
  Mike Brasher: want them listing on you there.
• 45:59
  Steve Adair: Think they'd be okay. Scott, our new science subcommittee chairman, Dan Galoon, said your decoys really look good on the water. Oh, yeah. I had you're right. Lake Christina with him.
• 46:10
  Scott Stevens: Yeah. I had some Ducharme cans there that they did look good, and there were tons of Camasbacks around. They shot some they shot some cans over my decoys.
• 46:18
  Steve Adair: I said, don't give them too much credit.
• 46:20
  Mike Brasher: No. No. No.
• 46:20
  Scott Stevens: That's right.
• 46:21
  Mike Brasher: Gotta keep them in check.
• 46:22
  Scott Stevens: So yeah.
• 46:23
  Mike Brasher: Alright. Well, fellas, that's gonna wrap it up. We've got our prognostications here for ponds and total ducks and mallards for the traditional survey area. We're gonna mark these down, and we will revisit these sometime in September. We you know, really not a high impact kinda situation we've got here because we don't ever wager anything.
• 46:43
  I guess it's just pride and and bragging rights, you know, although we we don't necessarily hold that over one another either. I don't even remember who got it right last year.
• 46:51
  Scott Stevens: I don't either. I don't like I I think I was wrong because I was saying down.
• 46:56
  Mike Brasher: So I'm sure there's a record out there somewhere. That's okay. Yeah. So alright, fellas. Well, thanks again so much for joining us, Scott and Steve.
• 47:03
  It's always great to catch up with you.
• 47:04
  Steve Adair: Yeah. Good to be with you guys. Thank you.
• 47:06
  Scott Stevens: Always good to talk about ducks.
• 47:08
  Mike Brasher: A very special thanks to our guest on today's episode, doctor Scott Stevens and doctor Steve Adair. We appreciate their time coming on with us here for this episode. We also thank our producer, Chris Isaac, for the great work that he does, and we thank you, the listener, for joining us and for your support of wetlands and waterfowl conservation.
• 47:26
  VO: That's a wrap for today's episode of the Ducks Unlimited Podcast brought to you by Bird Dog Whiskey and Cocktails. From post hunt unwinds to celebrations back at camp, Bird Dog delivers award winning flavor to every moment. Enjoy responsibly. Don't forget to rate, review, and subscribe, and check out ducks.org/dupodcast for more stories, science, and all things waterfowl. Guest opinions are their own and don't necessarily reflect those of Ducks Unlimited.
• 47:51
  Until next time, stay fired up, stay focused, and stay tuned to the ducks.