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Grains: The WASDE · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Today is November 14th.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jaden here with us.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we're gonna talk about the most riveting story, the WASD Airport.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: It has been since September, since we got the last WASD Airport when the government was shut down, but today we got the first one since September, and boy, did it live up to expectations.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: We had some fireworks today.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: We also maybe had a chance of that being boring, so the government also released daily export sales numbers, while the government's been shut down to tell us if China's actually been buying soybeans from the United States or not.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: What did the price action look like today, Jaden?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, we were we were lower on corn and soybeans today.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh December corn ended the day at 4.30 down 11 cents.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: And on the soybean side of things, we ended January at 1124 down twenty-two.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: But the kind of story to tell there, I mean, prior to the report yesterday, we had a lot of buying in these grain markets, kind of kind of got uh everyone excited for this report today, and it seemed like um the the bulls were the bulls were in the room for this report today, but with uh 186 yield that the USDA posted and the trade was kind of expecting a 184, um people were pretty disappointed that on the corn market side of things, on the beans, uh just a point five uh decrease in um yield there.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: But kind of the big story there was the was the daily flash sales report that they came out with.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so the daily flash sales report that came out only showed China buying about twelve million bushels from the United States through that stretch, which is basically what had already been reported by Reuters at the end of October through that stretch.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: It's equivalent to about five ships, I believe, when I ran the math.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: So not a lot of purchases at all, basically non-existent, especially when you start plugging the math in that they're supposed to buy 441 million bushels uh until about January here.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: So uh definitely had the Bears take over control in today's trade after that 11 o'clock report from those two.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: And uh just generically speaking, over the WASDI report, a lot of little changes, but not a lot.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh no real different ending stocks numbers, I would argue.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: Mainly trade was looking at the corn yield number at 186, which was a little high, and then the uh the export number on the soybeans, which uh they actually decreased at 50 million bushels in this report from the last one.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: So uh, you know, it the still the question weighs of how much of that number is even China supposed to make up at this point because clock is a ticking.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: So the report definitely had some fireworks, 20 cent day on the soybeans, 10 cent day for most day on the corn here, and uh any of the yield numbers that specifically stuck out to you, Jaden, just in that 186 on it was a little decrease, but yet still pretty high versus what some folks think we're at.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, the particular states that kind of stick out to me is specifically Iowa.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: We've been hearing a lot of complaints in Iowa of disease pressure and and things like that.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um, a lot of farmers are coming off a record yield in Iowa at 211 last year, but the USDA has them five above that this year, and that kind of surprised me based off what we've been hearing with that Southern Rust, um, how it kind of dropped down yields this year.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so the trend direction was probably fine.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Minnesota was down six as well, Wisconsin was down one.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, some of the other surprises probably were like Illinois up two from last month's or last September's report.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: South Dakota, no surprise, six higher there.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: They had phenomenal corn yields over in that part of the world.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: So uh some very interesting trade following up those reports, and and not just for the WASDA this week.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we had interesting trade all the way around.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: This morning here, we saw the equities take a pretty big hit.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: We were down 80 points on the SP 500, uh, just to close higher on the day, basically, on that SP.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: So a huge swing of events.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh honestly, some very, very interesting trade when it came down to it.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, the tech stocks led the way lower here this morning, kind of bounced back on the by the dip uh trading uh after hopefully we get some government data here to support uh a rate cut going into December.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: Gold in the meantime, that took a huge hit on the outside markets.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: It looks like uh the possibility for the Fed you know they came out a little bit hawkish.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: So on the other side of that coin, uh we may not cut rates there, it looks like.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: So um, you know, we'll we'll see what happens uh going forward.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: But today's trade in those outside markets and money flow really all over the place.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: You saw it, Jeff and I just talked about it on the cattle podcast with what cattle did this week in the hog market earlier on this week with massive changes in money flow.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, the money flow is a movement in a lot of these egg uh commodities along with others, so it's something to keep an eye on here.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of volatility, a lot of big reports now.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: We're getting to be more knowns, and uh corn jaden, it seems incredibly comfortable around this 430 number.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: It just can't get away from it on the December, can it?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, it it doesn't seem like it wants to go anywhere too quick, and I and I think it might take till January to push this corn market anywhere.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like it probably wants to trade pretty sideways, kind of like last year when the the USDA came out with the shocker in January.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we'll see something like that in January.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: I will say the front month on corn was down 11 on D's 25, but the if you look out at like uh D's 26 only down 5, 467, they're not awful of a close, probably uh quite a bit more weakness in these front months on both corn and and soybeans here.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: So any other final thoughts just about the trade action this week?
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it was a a massive end of the week, Jaden, uh, just with price action here.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um it'll be very interesting, I think, following up on the follow-through Monday for soybeans.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're at a pretty key support level here.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: Are we gonna try to run this thing back up again here?
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: Or I mean we rallied this thing on a buck ten of China buying and now they haven't bought anything yet.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think that'll be the most interesting thing to watch is how long can these soybean bowls hold on here?
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, China hasn't really confirmed that they're even gonna buy buy these beans.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's just been, you know, people from the US besting in the White House saying that they're gonna do this.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: I I'd be interested to see if China actually follows through.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you everyone.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: If uh if you didn't get a call today or or call in, please let's chat about this WASDAirport and some of the action we're taking in 2026.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of things we can discuss there about managing some some risk here for this crop year in the next.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time, Jaden.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate it.