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Bloomberg Intelligence: Inflation Progress, Super Bowl Weekend · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: Let's go from equities to the bond market. We got
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  Speaker 2: that revision of CPI. We got a lot of bond
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  Speaker 2: auctions this week. Everything seemed to be okay.
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  Speaker 3: We are though at you're to date highs with some
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  Speaker 3: of yields across the curve.
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  Speaker 2: So Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US interest rate strategist,
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  Speaker 2: joins us. Now, Okay, Ira, if you were to describe
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  Speaker 2: this week so far, how would you describe it choppy?
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  Speaker 4: Certainly we see somewhat higher yields, you know, from the
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  Speaker 4: beginning of the week to now. But when you look
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  Speaker 4: at the preponderance of the data that we've received, plus
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  Speaker 4: plus how the auctions went, and you so other things,
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  Speaker 4: we're pretty decent in terms of demand. So these higher
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  Speaker 4: yields are starting to draw in some investors, which leads
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  Speaker 4: us to believe that we're probably trying to find a
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  Speaker 4: range here for a lot of places along the curve,
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  Speaker 4: you know, the ten years somewhere broadly speaking, between three
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  Speaker 4: eighty and four and a quarter. You know, I suspect
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  Speaker 4: that until we get to at least the March FMC meeting,
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  Speaker 4: that we might stay in that range. So you have
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  Speaker 4: another month basically of just choppy trading.
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  Speaker 5: So where are we when you kind of talk to
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  Speaker 5: clients out there in terms of timing of a rate
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  Speaker 5: cut March off the table? It seems like I hear
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  Speaker 5: now there's waffling on May that maybe people are pushing
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  Speaker 5: out to June.
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  Speaker 6: What do you see?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true. And then there's but there's another camp
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  Speaker 4: also that that suggests that maybe if the Federal Reserve
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  Speaker 4: doesn't cut in March, which you know, like you said,
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  Speaker 4: is certainly not priced in the market anymore as it
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  Speaker 4: used to be, that maybe the Federal Reserve will need
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  Speaker 4: to cut by fifty in May if they start. So
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  Speaker 4: there's a lot of different camps right now. It doesn't
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  Speaker 4: seem to be a whole lot of consensus, which of
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  Speaker 4: course is what makes markets of course, but a lot
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  Speaker 4: of times there's certainly people leaning one way or the
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  Speaker 4: other as to you know, whether or not they'll be
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  Speaker 4: a cut in May, whether or not, and then the
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  Speaker 4: magnitude of that cut now is a discussion point among investors,
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  Speaker 4: and there's just feeling that the longer the Fed weights,
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  Speaker 4: the more that they may have to cut later, or
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  Speaker 4: that they might cut faster. So the idea being that
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  Speaker 4: if they don't maybe go in cut in either March
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  Speaker 4: or May, that maybe in June they have to cut
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  Speaker 4: fifty basis points as a starting point. I'm skeptical of that,
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  Speaker 4: and I actually think that the Federal Reserve would do
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  Speaker 4: well to give themselves optionality by cutting in May and
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  Speaker 4: then not maybe cutting in June, and that way thereafter
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  Speaker 4: they can make a decision meeting by meeting. The problem
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  Speaker 4: is is that markets always interpolate and say, okay, well,
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  Speaker 4: if they're cutting in May, that means they're cutting every
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  Speaker 4: single meeting after that, and that's certainly not what the
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  Speaker 4: Federals or would like to be priced into the market
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  Speaker 4: at this point.
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  Speaker 2: So we got choppy yields based on what you've seen
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  Speaker 2: today in the bond market. For the setup, does it
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  Speaker 2: make sense that you have equities at all time highs?
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  Speaker 2: I appreciate your the bond guy, but I bet you
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  Speaker 2: have a view.
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  Speaker 4: On this, well, you know, risk assets. I think you know,
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  Speaker 4: there's evaluation metric and then also a growth metric, right,
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  Speaker 4: so so you have you know, top line, bottom line,
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  Speaker 4: and then what people are willing to pay for their asset.
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  Speaker 4: I think that that there's a lot of people. It
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  Speaker 4: seems like, at least to us, that there's still significant
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  Speaker 4: flows into into into equities, and part of that is
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  Speaker 4: just you know, fear of missing out, just people who
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  Speaker 4: think that they have to be invested. There's still you know,
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  Speaker 4: there's this idea that hey, savings is has been exhausted,
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  Speaker 4: and that that means a consumer is not going to
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  Speaker 4: be spending much as much. But at the same time,
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  Speaker 4: when you look at the savings rate of the country,
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  Speaker 4: we're still saving hundreds of billions of dollars a year, right,
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  Speaker 4: and that money has to go somewhere. Some of that's
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  Speaker 4: going to be invested in stocks, some will go into
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  Speaker 4: savings and money market accounts, and some will go into
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  Speaker 4: bonds obviously, so but so the mix of that savings
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  Speaker 4: and where it goes I think matters, and just you know,
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  Speaker 4: people are return chasers, right, particularly retail investors, so you know,
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  Speaker 4: they open their year end statement and say, hey, stocks
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  Speaker 4: did great last year. I better buy stocks.
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  Speaker 1: Now.
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  Speaker 4: That's not always the best decision, right, but that nonetheless
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  Speaker 4: that does create these meaningful flows. And then on the
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  Speaker 4: bond side of things, you know, with with the Fed
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  Speaker 4: Reserve maybe not cutting as aggressively, there has certainly been
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  Speaker 4: people rotating out of out of some fixed income assets,
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  Speaker 4: particularly the front end of the yield curve, and you know,
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  Speaker 4: maybe going the other direction now and not necessarily being
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  Speaker 4: short but basically finding other alternatives. And you look at
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  Speaker 4: money market funds. Money market money market funds continue to
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  Speaker 4: have massive inflows, and now their assets under management are
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  Speaker 4: the highest ever once Agallion like.
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  Speaker 2: You look at the chart, it's so hard to see
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  Speaker 2: all the zeros because you're like, wait a second, what's that?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, that's you and six billion six.
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  Speaker 4: All right, So people keep people keep asking Alex, you know,
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  Speaker 4: how is the government funding all of these deficits? Well
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  Speaker 4: it's right there, because people putting money into money market
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  Speaker 4: funds just means that the government issues T bills and
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  Speaker 4: money market funds buy them.
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  Speaker 6: All right.
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  Speaker 5: Lisa from Upper Manhattan writes in and says, I have
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  Speaker 5: to ask about the auctions this week.
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  Speaker 6: How did they go? What did you learn?
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  Speaker 4: They went very well? Surprisingly well. Actually, what we've seen
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  Speaker 4: the last few months was you'd have one auction that
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  Speaker 4: would do well and then another auction would do poorly.
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  Speaker 4: And you know where people basically pick their spots in
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  Speaker 4: you know where to invest in auctions. But this week's
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  Speaker 4: auction is a three year note, the ten year note,
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  Speaker 4: and the thirty year bond. They all went fine, and
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  Speaker 4: these were also larger auction sizes. The one that I
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  Speaker 4: was really worried about was the three year auction because
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  Speaker 4: that was two billion dollars larger than the month before,
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  Speaker 4: and that was probably the weakest of the three. But
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  Speaker 4: people still wanted to buy duration, and I think part
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  Speaker 4: of that is endemic of the fact that we have
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  Speaker 4: higher yields now than we did a couple of weeks ago,
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  Speaker 4: So it was an easier way for people to start
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  Speaker 4: taking market risk instead of going into the open market
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  Speaker 4: and paying a bid offer. Because at the auctions, you're
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  Speaker 4: basically buying on the bid side. So that's attractive for
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  Speaker 4: some investors, and it does seem like you know what
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  Speaker 4: we call indirect investors, So those are end users, those
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  Speaker 4: are foreign portfolio investors or central banks or domestic investment funds.
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  Speaker 4: They were big participants in this. So this wasn't driven
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  Speaker 4: by primary dealers. This was really driven by end user
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  Speaker 4: investors having pretty good demand.
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  Speaker 3: IIRA next week, you get CPI Tuesday, retail sales Thursday.
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  Speaker 3: Do you think any of this are really going to
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  Speaker 3: move the needle for you?
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  Speaker 4: Well, maybe not in terms of the Federal Reserve, but
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  Speaker 4: I think it will give some new information obviously as
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  Speaker 4: to maybe what the future path is. Again, like you know,
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  Speaker 4: now we're talking about May or June, and we're talking
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  Speaker 4: about you know, twenty five or fifty whenever the federal
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  Speaker 4: Reserve does go. So these are always important numbers. And
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  Speaker 4: CPI is next to payrolls is now the number one.
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  Speaker 4: So it's payrolls and then CPI, then retail sales in
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  Speaker 4: that order that the bond market cares about. And when
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  Speaker 4: you look at the knee jerk reactions after the after
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  Speaker 4: those those news releases, that's when you see tenure yields
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  Speaker 4: move the most one way or the other if you
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  Speaker 4: get a big surprise. So you know, again next to payrolls,
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  Speaker 4: next week's two numbers are really the key for the
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  Speaker 4: market and maybe the market direction and the medium Durm.
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  Speaker 5: All right, Ira, thanks so much, as always appreciate it.
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  Speaker 5: Ira Jersey chief us in straight strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence,
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  Speaker 5: kind of getting a sense your rest some more data
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  Speaker 5: as you mentioned alex Net next week. But I'm just
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  Speaker 5: going to at the WORP function. It's kind of fifty
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  Speaker 5: to fifty for a May price cut, and that you know,
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  Speaker 5: it's been well over one hundred percent chance that there
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  Speaker 5: would be a May cut. You know, back in January,
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  Speaker 5: the market was discounting, Hey, it's going to happen in
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  Speaker 5: May now not a little bit less.
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  Speaker 1: So you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Don't catch
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  Speaker 3: Here's my question. Are you guys watching the Super Bowl?
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  Speaker 3: How we confirmed the horse? Yes here, well obviously, Paul, Yeah, yeah, I.
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  Speaker 7: Guess I feel like I have to I have to
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  Speaker 7: go to bed at like six thirty seven.
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  Speaker 6: You're going to get to be here.
• 8:28
  Speaker 7: I'll just I'll record it on my VCR.
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  Speaker 3: I think I have to watch CR.
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  Speaker 6: Oh wow, he's got his bait it.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, next, that's not even a thing I like. I
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  Speaker 3: have to watch it to be able to have this
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  Speaker 3: conversation with you guys on socially relevant well sure, I
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: mean socially relevant.
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  Speaker 8: I don't know.
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  Speaker 7: Do you have a do you have a pick?
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  Speaker 4: No?
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  Speaker 7: No, you know who's playing?
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  Speaker 3: Yes, the forty nine ers and the Cheeks.
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  Speaker 6: Very good, thank you.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: I think I have to go with the Chiefs because
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  Speaker 3: my daughter likes tailors.
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  Speaker 2: But this leads me into the question and of snacks,
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  Speaker 2: because I'm not going to as we know, I don't
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  Speaker 2: need junk food, so I'm not going to be eating
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  Speaker 2: chicken tail.
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  Speaker 3: This is just not I'm not going to drink beer.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not going to do those things. So maybe if
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  Speaker 3: we had.
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  Speaker 2: We had some prosecco and some hummus, okay, and some
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  Speaker 2: pita and maybe some cucumbers and carrots.
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  Speaker 7: That's the food. That's the that's the food for the
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  Speaker 7: Oscar party, not the super Bowl.
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  Speaker 2: But I bet you I'm not the only one who's
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  Speaker 2: going to have to be doing this, which leads I
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  Speaker 2: into gembar task okay, senior retail staples and packaged food
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  Speaker 2: analysts Jen Usually this conversation is chicken, wings and beer
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  Speaker 2: and pizza and stuff.
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  Speaker 3: Is the conversation different this year?
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  Speaker 8: Well, it's it's a little bit different. And that snack is.
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  Speaker 8: Snacks are still a huge part of the Super Bowl,
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  Speaker 8: but because the viewership is going to be changing a
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  Speaker 8: little bit for this game, mostly due to that Taylor
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  Speaker 8: Swift impact that we were talking about, we may see
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  Speaker 8: a little bit of edging into slightly healthier snacks like
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  Speaker 8: popcorn or things like that versus just the pizza, you know,
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  Speaker 8: wings and things like that. How big?
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  Speaker 6: I mean, it's just it's this weekend, the two weeks
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  Speaker 6: has become so big.
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  Speaker 5: And if I'm the package goods companies, is it an
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  Speaker 5: important day for them to know, push their product, promote
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  Speaker 5: their products, have people buy their product.
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, it's it's important in two respects. The first is
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  Speaker 8: that the Super Bowl is the second biggest food holiday
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  Speaker 8: in the United States, So in the week up to
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  Speaker 8: the Super Bowl, people will spend, according to our estimates,
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  Speaker 8: nine hundred and six million dollars in one week just
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  Speaker 8: on snacks. When it comes to food and beverage, is
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  Speaker 8: as a whole for the one week before the super
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  Speaker 8: Bowl eight point eight billion dollars, So it is a
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  Speaker 8: meaningful unofficial holiday for beverage and food companies. For sure,
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  Speaker 8: this might be.
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  Speaker 2: Really off, but it's also the Lunar New Year, and
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  Speaker 2: I'm actually going to two parties over the weekend, which
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  Speaker 2: I don't go to parties, So this is actually a
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  Speaker 2: moment for me.
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  Speaker 6: No parties, no beer, no wings.
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  Speaker 2: I'm really not selling myself days of time spend an
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  Speaker 2: Expedia dot com. But Jen, is there like an overlap here.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I appreciate that the food you might have
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  Speaker 2: for Lunar New Year is going to be different than
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  Speaker 2: the snacking you do for the Super Bowl, but it
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  Speaker 2: is just like a moment for someone that's more, i
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  Speaker 2: don't know, diversified to really capitalize.
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  Speaker 8: Absolutely. When you look at some of the package food companies,
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  Speaker 8: especially those that play in the confectionery space like Mandali's
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  Speaker 8: or Hershey, they actually tend to see a sales bump
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  Speaker 8: around Lunar New Year, so you've got complimentary things happening.
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  Speaker 8: So between the super Bowl and between the New Year,
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  Speaker 8: it could be a very very nice little period for
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  Speaker 8: the package food companies and the retailers that sell those products.
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  Speaker 8: But just remember, as we're going into earning season, all
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  Speaker 8: of this is going to impact first quarter earnings, not
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  Speaker 8: fourth quarter earnings.
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  Speaker 5: Jen has got inner research. Note here, Jen has got
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: some data that just blows me away.
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  Speaker 6: I had no idea.
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  Speaker 5: The dollar share in the salty snacks category. PepsiCo leads
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  Speaker 5: the way with sixty point eight percent. Number two the
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  Speaker 5: private label group as a whole six.
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  Speaker 6: Point nine percent. Jen, what's good?
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  Speaker 5: I mean, the salty snack business is PepsiCo.
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  Speaker 6: PepsiCo is the salty snack business.
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  Speaker 8: It really is. I mean, and if you have to remember,
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  Speaker 8: PepsiCo owns Freedo lay right, So all of those, you know,
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  Speaker 8: all you know, whether it's your lace, potato chips or Gerrita's,
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  Speaker 8: you know, all of those salty things are all part
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  Speaker 8: of that Pepsi PepsiCo portfolio. Other players in the salty
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  Speaker 8: snacks category can also win. Kelenova owns springles, you know,
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  Speaker 8: that's also a popular kind of game day, pop it
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  Speaker 8: and eat it kind of thing. Hershey has popcorn brands,
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  Speaker 8: so you know, but by far the dominant player is PepsiCo.
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  Speaker 3: What's what's their growth rate, because didn't they disappoint with earnings?
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  Speaker 8: They did, but they disappointed in earnings. On the beverage
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  Speaker 8: side of the business, volumes were down, and you know
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  Speaker 8: part of that was is just elevated and put costs,
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  Speaker 8: especially in sweeteners.
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  Speaker 6: So top to us, let's step back, all right, So
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  Speaker 6: super Bowl is going to be big. People are going
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  Speaker 6: to go crazy.
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  Speaker 5: Talk to us about the you know, the supermarket business.
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  Speaker 5: What's what's going on there in these days?
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  Speaker 8: Well, you know, with regards to grocery, there's there's a
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  Speaker 8: couple of things that are happening. So first is we've
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  Speaker 8: started to see food inflation come down. So that's actually
• 13:25
  Speaker 8: good news for the consumer, and that's really being led
• 13:28
  Speaker 8: by the grocers. And so when the US goes through
• 13:31
  Speaker 8: an inflationary period, the grocers are one of the first
• 13:35
  Speaker 8: retailer types that will actually bring prices down for consumers.
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  Speaker 8: And so although there's been a lot of political buzz
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  Speaker 8: about food prices still being too high, you know, the
• 13:44
  Speaker 8: inflation rate is coming down. We are starting to see
• 13:47
  Speaker 8: prices come back down. But that's going to present a
• 13:51
  Speaker 8: unique challenge as the year goes on, because if things
• 13:54
  Speaker 8: cost less, if you're going to maintain your top line growth,
• 13:57
  Speaker 8: that means you have to sell more volume, and so
• 14:00
  Speaker 8: that dynamic between that price and volume is going to
• 14:03
  Speaker 8: really be exacerbated this year as inflation starts to recede.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Can we go to Super Bowl ads? I know you
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: went away from it for a second, but let's go
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: back to the ads. So bud Light, I mean, was
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: that the was the Super Bowl last year, the one
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: that had the disastrous ad?
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  Speaker 8: Well, it was, I don't I honestly, I don't know
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  Speaker 8: if it was part of the Super Bowl, but it was.
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  Speaker 3: It was.
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  Speaker 8: It was it, you know where they they kind of
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  Speaker 8: had that.
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  Speaker 5: The transgender transgender influencer.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then I just really disrupted sales, had a
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: meaningful impact. What are we going to expect from like
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  Speaker 2: the retailers and the snack guys with the ads? Like,
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  Speaker 2: how kind of cautious are we going to see?
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  Speaker 8: My guess is, you know they'll probably a little be
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  Speaker 8: a little bit more conservative in terms of broad appeal, right,
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  Speaker 8: And so at the end of the day, you know,
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  Speaker 8: you pay a lot of money for a Super Bowl ad,
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  Speaker 8: and so you wanted to resonate with as many people
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  Speaker 8: as possible and spurs need people to action to buy
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  Speaker 8: your goods and services, and so I think it's a
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  Speaker 8: reasonable assumption that they'll be kind of mainstream type of messages.
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  Speaker 8: But of course, you know, forty four percent of people
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  Speaker 8: who tune into the Super Bowl do it for the ads,
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  Speaker 8: So it's it's it's a form of entertainment, and so
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  Speaker 8: I wouldn't expect anything too serious or too heavy as
• 15:21
  Speaker 8: we look at the advertisements this year.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, and Bloomberg News had a story out today just
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  Speaker 5: you know, saying how it's you know, it's gonna be
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  Speaker 5: right down.
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  Speaker 6: The middle of the fairway.
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: Try not to get anybody up set, try to make
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: people feel good, try to bridge some gaps. Maybe, so
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: we'll see how that plays out. But again, seven million
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  Speaker 5: dollars for a thirty second spot.
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  Speaker 3: Is what's seven million dollars for thirty second spot?
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  Speaker 7: Yes?
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  Speaker 6: Whow now? Actually it's little to no growth from last year.
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  Speaker 5: And I actually think people are going to get a
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  Speaker 5: great buy for that seven million dollars because it is
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  Speaker 5: going to have a better audience I think, better demographics,
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: more women than too typical, and that makes it more
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: valuable in my opinion. I know exactly, I am point
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: with the case in point right.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: Just get me some homicides.
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: We're good, exactly, Thanks so much for joining us.
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: Jen Bartashic just covers all the consumer space for Bloomberger Intelligence,
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: doing a great job taking a look here at some
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: of the package goods companies and kind of how they play.
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: How important this Super Bowl Sunday is and it's some big,
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: big dollars out there.
• 16:18
  Speaker 9: But again, I was just.
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: Blown away by the fact that in the salty snacks category,
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: PepsiCo sixty percent of the market.
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: Are we all Freedo lovers here?
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: Like?
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Is this an takeaway from you guys? Like straight up?
• 16:28
  Speaker 6: Like yeah, straight up, fres that's the go to dude.
• 16:32
  Speaker 7: Can you you can dip Freedo's.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: I mean they're already made of garbage, right, so you
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: can just dip them in anything.
• 16:38
  Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly exactly.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: I mean.
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: Somebody around here likes the cheese its and that's a
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: solid snack. But I have to go Frito's over Jesus,
• 16:47
  Speaker 6: what do you watch it down with? Budweiser in cans
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: really nice.
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: Red wine.
• 16:56
  Speaker 7: With freedom. It's a great peering.
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: No, the house brew in the sweetiest state is Budweiser
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: in Cans has to be.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: God retail sales next week, and then we'll also start
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: hearing getting the earnings reports from some of the big retillers.
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: So we just heard from Gen bartash Is that consumers
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: are can spend you know, up to a billion dollars
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: on salty snacks and stuff for the Super Bowl. I
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: don't know how the consumers do, and I think it's
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: pretty good shape. It's checking with Joe Blancharchie is the
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: president of Enterprises Client Solutions. I'm sorry, her title president
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: of Enterprise Client Solutions and the name of the firm
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: is Advantage Solutions. Jill, thanks so much for joining us here,
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: give us a sense of I know, we come to
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: the Super Bowl week and I guess consumers are buying stuff.
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: But how's the consumer doing out there generally in terms
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: of you know, going out there and buying stuff versus
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: maybe buying experiences.
• 18:04
  Speaker 10: Yes, So, first of all, hello and thank you for
• 18:06
  Speaker 10: having me back, and really good question, because we're really
• 18:09
  Speaker 10: seeing a dichotomy out there.
• 18:11
  Speaker 11: It's definitely tough for consumers.
• 18:14
  Speaker 10: I heard Jen say that food inflation has cooled, which
• 18:17
  Speaker 10: it has, but it's still up twenty five percent since
• 18:20
  Speaker 10: twenty nineteen, and that's six points higher than the average inflation.
• 18:23
  Speaker 10: So consumers are both pairing down to spend less and
• 18:29
  Speaker 10: find things that are more of more value, but at
• 18:32
  Speaker 10: the same time looking for affordable indulgences.
• 18:35
  Speaker 11: The Super Bowl is one of those.
• 18:37
  Speaker 10: It is akin to the next Thanksgiving, where you've got
• 18:40
  Speaker 10: herds of people that gather inside the home to do food,
• 18:43
  Speaker 10: family fun, football. I think that we saw that the
• 18:46
  Speaker 10: NRF Super Bowl surveys predicting a record number of Super
• 18:50
  Speaker 10: Bowl sales. About eighty percent of that is food and beverage.
• 18:53
  Speaker 10: So if you're selling those products, this could be a
• 18:55
  Speaker 10: really good season.
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: And just for our audience.
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Advantaged solutions you basically talk to retailers and help them understand,
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: say inventory, if they have the right products on the shelves,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: even if they're in store or online, et cetera.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: What did you tell people before the Super Bowl to
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: stop up on?
• 19:14
  Speaker 11: Oh great question.
• 19:15
  Speaker 10: So a couple of pieces of advice that we put
• 19:17
  Speaker 10: out there to Bold our manufacturer as well as our
• 19:20
  Speaker 10: retail our clients. One is the recent trend that we
• 19:22
  Speaker 10: saw and talked about last month, sorry, which is the
• 19:27
  Speaker 10: disproportionate spend that we're seeing in the two to three
• 19:29
  Speaker 10: days that are leading up to key events. So for
• 19:31
  Speaker 10: the Super Bowl, think today and tomorrow, so the retailers
• 19:34
  Speaker 10: have to make sure that they have that inventory.
• 19:36
  Speaker 11: The second thing is look for consumers to pare down
• 19:39
  Speaker 11: to find value.
• 19:40
  Speaker 10: So as it relates to Super Bowl, that's going to
• 19:42
  Speaker 10: mean different things to different consumers. So that may be
• 19:45
  Speaker 10: pairing down from like a Wagoo beef to a prime rib.
• 19:47
  Speaker 10: It could be from a prepared charcoutering player to one
• 19:50
  Speaker 10: that you make yourself a big brand to a national brand.
• 19:53
  Speaker 10: And of course always looking for things on sale. And
• 19:57
  Speaker 10: then let's talk products. Here are what we think are
• 19:59
  Speaker 10: going to be Two of the surprises for super Bowl.
• 20:02
  Speaker 10: One is not alcoholic. Beer in my tails are having
• 20:05
  Speaker 10: a really good day.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: For I See You, I See you the lot use
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: these two guys on this one.
• 20:14
  Speaker 10: I heard the previous discussion about red wine beer and prosecco,
• 20:18
  Speaker 10: but a beer in my tails are having a pretty
• 20:21
  Speaker 10: good day.
• 20:22
  Speaker 11: So we see those both cannibalizing some of the alcohol.
• 20:25
  Speaker 10: Sales but also adding to overall beverage sales. And then
• 20:28
  Speaker 10: another contender, this year's private brand. Ninety two percent of
• 20:32
  Speaker 10: consumers trust a private brand as much as a national brand,
• 20:35
  Speaker 10: and it's a great way for consumers to pare down
• 20:38
  Speaker 10: and get that value. So think snacks, ingredients, appetizers.
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: That's what I have to admit.
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: I'm not a big shopper, but I noticed a changing
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: my shopping habits for groceries during the pandemic when we
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: were buying more stuff and prices were going up. I
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: now go store brand, probably way more than half. Now
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: you know, it's only a few and.
• 21:00
  Speaker 9: Is it rise?
• 21:01
  Speaker 6: I just figured it's this cost. I mean it's materurely lower.
• 21:03
  Speaker 6: It is like thirty forty.
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: Percent lower on some of these things. So I don't know,
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: but it's a change in behavior. So I guess the
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: question here is we're going to get retail sales next
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: week and we're going to start hearing from some of
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: the retailers.
• 21:17
  Speaker 6: But it appears, you know that the consumers.
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: They have a job, if they want them wages you're
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: going up.
• 21:22
  Speaker 7: Is it fair?
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: To say that the consumer we should we should expect
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: the consumer to continue to be fairly strong.
• 21:29
  Speaker 10: Oh boy, I think in the consumer package goods world,
• 21:32
  Speaker 10: we're probably looking at flat four twenty twenty four.
• 21:36
  Speaker 11: This is what most of the industry experts are saying.
• 21:38
  Speaker 10: Manufacturers, though, and the recent survey that we just did
• 21:41
  Speaker 10: at advantage, eighty percent of manufacturers are predicting growth based
• 21:45
  Speaker 10: on new products and expanded distribution of current products.
• 21:48
  Speaker 11: That could be a little too confident.
• 21:50
  Speaker 10: They were also overconfident in their holiday sales predictions. Retailers
• 21:55
  Speaker 10: are less confident, with about half of retailers predicting mild
• 21:59
  Speaker 10: growth both, so we'll see how it plays out. Consumers,
• 22:03
  Speaker 10: you know, as I said before, are still in a
• 22:04
  Speaker 10: pretty tough place. The overall confidence in their ability to
• 22:08
  Speaker 10: afford everyday life has gone down twenty points from sixty
• 22:12
  Speaker 10: percent of forty percent since such twenty nineteen, So this
• 22:15
  Speaker 10: will definitely have an effect on twenty four sales and volume.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: What are you telling them about inventories? Are we going
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: to be in a world where I guess I'm talking
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: more with say, clothing electronics maybe rather than food.
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: Is it gonna be like a just in time inventory
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: or what are you telling them?
• 22:34
  Speaker 10: Inventory is a really tricky proposition right now. You've got
• 22:38
  Speaker 10: a lot of retailers trying to reduce inventory, which is
• 22:42
  Speaker 10: a risky game to play. There are benefits to doing that,
• 22:45
  Speaker 10: but there are also challenges in that if there's i
• 22:48
  Speaker 10: mean take the recent social media runs. I mean, don't
• 22:50
  Speaker 10: get me going on the Stanley Cup, but there are
• 22:53
  Speaker 10: there are runs on products which could be driven by
• 22:55
  Speaker 10: social media, could be driven by a strong marketing program
• 22:59
  Speaker 10: and often times, and also don't forget the disproportioned of sales.
• 23:02
  Speaker 11: The two to three days before the key events.
• 23:05
  Speaker 10: Many retailers got caught in Thanksgiving and had to adjust
• 23:08
  Speaker 10: for a Christmas because they didn't have the inventory.
• 23:10
  Speaker 11: So it's a bit of a it's a bit of
• 23:14
  Speaker 11: a risk. It's got upside, it's got downside.
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: Are there enough chickens out there for the chicken wing demand?
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: Oh no, A good question, did you guys?
• 23:22
  Speaker 11: Did you see that?
• 23:23
  Speaker 10: The National Chicken Council last year said that there were
• 23:27
  Speaker 10: enough chicken wings consumed last year during Super Bowl for
• 23:31
  Speaker 10: every person in the country to have four. So I'm
• 23:34
  Speaker 10: not sure who had my four, but somebody is having
• 23:37
  Speaker 10: a lot of wings.
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: And I remember, I mean there was a time I
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: can't remember it was last year the year before where
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: it was kind of kind of in the pandemic area
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: that there weren't enough chickens because they had some diseases
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: and something like that.
• 23:47
  Speaker 6: So there's the price of chicken wings were higher.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that flew. It's a real thing. I have to
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: have a confession.
• 23:55
  Speaker 7: Hummus wings.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: I don't like chicken wing. I like the sauces on
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: chicken wings.
• 24:01
  Speaker 7: Okay, just.
• 24:03
  Speaker 11: Doesn't somebody has.
• 24:05
  Speaker 10: Somebody's having both our wings because four wings per person
• 24:07
  Speaker 10: is my modeling.
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: Very good, all right, Jill, thank you so much for
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: joining us. Really appreciate it.
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: Jill Blanchard, president of Enterprise Client Solutions. The name of
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: the firm is Advantage Solutions. We're learning so much, aren't we, John.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: I know, and I'm just like pouring it out.
• 24:22
  Speaker 7: We know not to go to her house party or
• 24:25
  Speaker 7: bring our own. I think bake.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: I bake with like real fat and stuff, okay, but
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: no sugar, with real sugar. Like I actually tried to
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: bake without sugar and do like some big paste instead.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: It didn't work out. So I cook with lard and
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: with you know, I'll bring something in and it'll be
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: a nice moment for us.
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: All right, Well, be looking forward to that.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexi from our flagship New York station,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: All right, it is Super Bowl Sunday.
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: We cover the story from the business perspective. And you
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: know why we do that because we have a podcast,
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: Business of Sports, hosted by the Scarlett Foo of Bloomberg News,
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: Michael Barr and Damien sasas Hower. Damien Sasawa Bloomberg Intelligence.
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: Michael bar Bloomberg News as well. Michael Barr and Damien
• 25:26
  Speaker 5: Sashira join us here in the studio.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: I mean this, hold on, this is my first moment
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: with Michael Barr.
• 25:32
  Speaker 6: Ever, Oh really, yeah real, this is.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: Michael Barr talking is my most favorite thing.
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: There you go, this is.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: This feels really exciting for me.
• 25:42
  Speaker 9: Damien.
• 25:43
  Speaker 6: How big is the business of the Super Bowl.
• 25:46
  Speaker 9: It's only as big as Michael Barr's voice will allow
• 25:48
  Speaker 9: it to be Man. That baritone voice. It draws in
• 25:51
  Speaker 9: all the greatest guests. We had on our show this week,
• 25:53
  Speaker 9: the presidents for the San Francisco forty nine ers and
• 25:55
  Speaker 9: the Kansas City Chiefs, and we had the CEO of
• 25:57
  Speaker 9: bet MGM.
• 25:57
  Speaker 8: You know what.
• 25:57
  Speaker 9: They all said, It's gonna be a huge super Bowl.
• 25:59
  Speaker 9: I'm talking like the mount bet. The mount being bet
• 26:02
  Speaker 9: on this super Bowl is going to be something on
• 26:04
  Speaker 9: the order of twenty four billion dollars. That's a thirty
• 26:06
  Speaker 9: three percent increase over last year alone, Isn't that right?
• 26:08
  Speaker 9: Michael Buber?
• 26:09
  Speaker 12: And they're betting on everything, the color of the gatorade,
• 26:11
  Speaker 12: the length of the national anthem, how many Yeah, but
• 26:17
  Speaker 12: you got to see how many times Taylor Swift is
• 26:19
  Speaker 12: going to be on TV?
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, no, you can bet on everything, can't you
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: bet somewhere about if Taylor's foot will cry like.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: It's is that legal or not?
• 26:27
  Speaker 9: The tear has to drip below the halfway point of
• 26:29
  Speaker 9: her cheek? And no, I'm kidding. I don't know how
• 26:31
  Speaker 9: do you say? How can you tell?
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: But I think there are prop bets like that, yeah,
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: called prop bets, and the prop bets are on you
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: can find them in any sports book.
• 26:40
  Speaker 6: You can find them at the online online gambling.
• 26:43
  Speaker 9: Absolutely fangual, DraftKings bet, MGM, Caesars, you name it, they're
• 26:46
  Speaker 9: all carrying it. But I think most of their prop
• 26:48
  Speaker 9: bets are the ones that you find are related to
• 26:50
  Speaker 9: the actual outcome of the game. Some of the things
• 26:52
  Speaker 9: we're talking about are I think you have to bet
• 26:55
  Speaker 9: through it. Oh yeah, like some Panamanian you know, website
• 26:58
  Speaker 9: that will take your bet and never pay you out. No,
• 27:00
  Speaker 9: I'm just kidding, but I mean, look they've got I mean,
• 27:01
  Speaker 9: the real story this year is going to be the
• 27:03
  Speaker 9: comeback for advertising, right because you know, we don't have
• 27:06
  Speaker 9: cryptocurrencies anymore, you know, you know, apparently the biggest sector
• 27:10
  Speaker 9: that's going to be kind of you know, advertising during
• 27:13
  Speaker 9: this Super but at least in terms of an increase,
• 27:14
  Speaker 9: is going to be candy, sweets and cookies. Oreo, you
• 27:18
  Speaker 9: know you're very interested in them.
• 27:19
  Speaker 12: I want to see that I missed the Clydesdale the Budweiser.
• 27:23
  Speaker 12: They to me, they have always had the most iconic
• 27:25
  Speaker 12: commercials and I want to see that. By the way,
• 27:29
  Speaker 12: just a heads up, Uh, they're also a bet if
• 27:33
  Speaker 12: Travis Kelcey will propose to Taylor Swift. Oh they went.
• 27:38
  Speaker 12: And then there's a little I think the chapel or
• 27:41
  Speaker 12: the flowers or whatever it is on the strip says, look,
• 27:45
  Speaker 12: if they do it, you can come in for free
• 27:46
  Speaker 12: for the wedding. And then they said, well, you know,
• 27:49
  Speaker 12: if you pass anybody named Travis and Taylor coming in,
• 27:54
  Speaker 12: you'll get a free wedding.
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: What are the experts saying about the game? I mean,
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: it's only one and a half point spread, so.
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: I guess everybody's expecting to be a competitive game.
• 28:03
  Speaker 9: Well, I mean, I think from that perspective, you know,
• 28:05
  Speaker 9: it comes down to defense. But you know, both defenses
• 28:07
  Speaker 9: are overshadowed by their incredible offenses this year, so it's
• 28:10
  Speaker 9: difficult to tell. I think, you know, it's very difficult.
• 28:12
  Speaker 9: Even though the Chiefs are getting a point and a
• 28:14
  Speaker 9: half call to two points. I mean, to bet against
• 28:17
  Speaker 9: Patrick Mahomes and I mean to actually get points and
• 28:19
  Speaker 9: do it's pretty unbelievable. I mean, I think, I think, really,
• 28:21
  Speaker 9: you know, it's about you know, stopping it's going to
• 28:24
  Speaker 9: be about stopping you know, the San Francisco run game.
• 28:26
  Speaker 9: I mean, if they can manage to stop that run
• 28:29
  Speaker 9: game and forced Brock pretty to pass. I think the
• 28:30
  Speaker 9: forty nine ers have a legitimate chancer, Alex. I'm sorry, Kenny.
• 28:34
  Speaker 12: I talked to me one day, little Birdie in the
• 28:37
  Speaker 12: degenerate newsman's ear forty seven and a half, the last
• 28:40
  Speaker 12: time I had seen the over and under. And we
• 28:44
  Speaker 12: also had an interview with Amy Transk who is within
• 28:47
  Speaker 12: the front office with the then Oakland Raiders. And I
• 28:50
  Speaker 12: thought this was going to be a high scoring, high
• 28:53
  Speaker 12: faluting game. No, she said, this is going to be
• 28:56
  Speaker 12: a defense of struggles, so don't be surprised if it
• 28:58
  Speaker 12: goes under.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: So, Scarlett fo and I are very similar, Okay, we're
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: kind of both really anal.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: We like prepping.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: We have a similar taste in most everything except for
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: sports because I know nothing about So let's pretend to
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: go to a Super Bowl party.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: Okay, and I have to say smart things. What am
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: I saying?
• 29:17
  Speaker 9: You want me to take this one on, Michael Bla.
• 29:18
  Speaker 9: You want to here's what you want to talk about.
• 29:20
  Speaker 9: You want to talk about Halo Glow, liquid filter else
• 29:23
  Speaker 9: and is going to take over during some of the commercials.
• 29:26
  Speaker 9: I think also this is an important point. You know,
• 29:28
  Speaker 9: Paul and I were talking about this the female audience,
• 29:31
  Speaker 9: not just due to Taylor Swift, but just generally speaking.
• 29:33
  Speaker 9: For the Super Bowl last year alone was forty seven
• 29:35
  Speaker 9: percent female. Now you've got Taylor's swift. So you have
• 29:38
  Speaker 9: advertisers me does Yeah, you're talking to you, Alex. They
• 29:42
  Speaker 9: want I mean they want you to, you know, basically
• 29:45
  Speaker 9: buy the ice Cript brand, you know, drumstick.
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 29:47
  Speaker 9: They want you to shop at Etsy and eat Link chocolates,
• 29:50
  Speaker 9: you know, like Kelsey's wife does. I don't know, so,
• 29:53
  Speaker 9: I mean people do that. I mean, that's that's kind
• 29:55
  Speaker 9: of what they want from you.
• 29:56
  Speaker 12: I know we're running out of time soon, but I
• 29:58
  Speaker 12: just to get pump up for this. I had to
• 30:01
  Speaker 12: watch some old clips of the San Francisco forty nine ers,
• 30:04
  Speaker 12: and this was on the old Monday Night Football. This
• 30:07
  Speaker 12: is nineteen seventy six. I don't want to give away
• 30:09
  Speaker 12: my age that I was twelve years old, man, but
• 30:11
  Speaker 12: I just did.
• 30:12
  Speaker 8: And here it is.
• 30:14
  Speaker 12: Here's Alex Karis in the opening and he's smoking a
• 30:17
  Speaker 12: cigar as he's talking to Howard Cosell, And I'm like,
• 30:21
  Speaker 12: oh man, what happened to this era?
• 30:23
  Speaker 8: Man?
• 30:23
  Speaker 12: This is great.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: Sportico dot Com, which is some Bloomberg News alumni. They
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: have a good story out party, the CE the QB
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: for San Francisco.
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: He may be the cheapest yes to ever absolutly.
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: Now right, but for now, for now, exactly right, wait
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: tomorrow Monday.
• 30:41
  Speaker 9: They're not paying well. I mean, I mean, let's I mean,
• 30:43
  Speaker 9: I mean, that's a great stand. I mean, let's just
• 30:45
  Speaker 9: think about the numbers. Mahomes makes thirty six million dollars,
• 30:47
  Speaker 9: He's seventeen percent of Kansas City salary cap. Rock Party
• 30:50
  Speaker 9: is only zero point three seven percent of the forty
• 30:53
  Speaker 9: nine er salary cap.
• 30:54
  Speaker 12: What an investment, mister irrelevant? I mean, that's to me,
• 30:57
  Speaker 12: that is the biggest story of this one. Pick he
• 30:59
  Speaker 12: was the last one pick.
• 31:00
  Speaker 9: Really good.
• 31:01
  Speaker 12: That's what you go.
• 31:02
  Speaker 7: You take to the party.
• 31:03
  Speaker 9: Now, Paul Sweeney, some trivia for you. Who was the
• 31:05
  Speaker 9: previous cheapest quarterback to play in the Super Bowl and win? Oh,
• 31:08
  Speaker 9: it's a good one. It's an easy one. It's right
• 31:10
  Speaker 9: there in front of you. Oh, Tom Brady two thousand
• 31:13
  Speaker 9: and two, right, Yeah, that of the year zero point
• 31:17
  Speaker 9: four to six percent of the salary. That was his
• 31:18
  Speaker 9: first year when the Jets knocked out Bledsoe And.
• 31:22
  Speaker 6: All right, so you guys are the experts. Michael Barr,
• 31:24
  Speaker 6: what is your pick here?
• 31:26
  Speaker 12: I am pick because my wife is listening and is
• 31:29
  Speaker 12: a die hard forty nine ers fan. Would I think
• 31:34
  Speaker 12: it's going to be San Francisco twenty one and I
• 31:37
  Speaker 12: think it's going to be the Chief seventeen?
• 31:39
  Speaker 9: Caressing Okay, I mean, I look, I'm going to be
• 31:41
  Speaker 9: rooting for San Francisco. But if I were a betting man,
• 31:43
  Speaker 9: I would not be betting against Andy Reid and Patrick
• 31:45
  Speaker 9: Mahomes and the Kansas City Chief. So I'd probably take
• 31:47
  Speaker 9: the points and probably take the over there, maybe parlayed
• 31:51
  Speaker 9: a little bit. Maybe you know a player.
• 31:52
  Speaker 6: Are you going to have a little app on your
• 31:54
  Speaker 6: phone that will allow you to do just then?
• 31:55
  Speaker 9: I mean, I don't gamble, Paul. You know, I'm an investor.
• 31:58
  Speaker 9: I am a risk adjustin investor. You me emerging markets,
• 32:01
  Speaker 9: fixed incomes. Say, you know, I'm not really a big gambler,
• 32:03
  Speaker 9: but I'm sure I'll get a box or two at
• 32:05
  Speaker 9: the Super Bowl party on Sunday.
• 32:06
  Speaker 12: I have to go to your app if you want
• 32:08
  Speaker 12: to make this bet.
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: We got a market here, We got it right in
• 32:14
  Speaker 6: front of us.
• 32:14
  Speaker 9: He's still upset because he's still upset because they beat
• 32:17
  Speaker 9: him in fantasy and he beat the stew out of here.
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: All right, folks, check out the podcast Business of Sports,
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: hosted by Scarlett flu Bloomberg Television, Michael Barr Bloomberg News,
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: and Damon Sasa our Bloomberg Intelligence. They host that is
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: it come out weekly, gents, Yeah, that's a weekly and
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: they get.
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: Some great guests.
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: You had to just heard here some of the leaders
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: in the NFL this week. So they get some great
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: guests and the Business of Sports is that's how we
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: do it here.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on apples, Spotify,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: and anywhere else you will get your podcasts. Listen live
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the iHeart Radio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: You can also watch us a long I have every
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Journal
• 33:07
  Speaker 8: M