Latest / The Layback Podcast / Austin Marchesani, Pitching Consultant (Ep. 45)
Transcript
- 0:00Hey everyone, welcome back to the Lay Back podcast.
- 0:02Joining us today is Austin Marches Ani.
- 0:05Probably his most important title is recently engaged.
- 0:09So sorry everyone he is off the market.
- 0:11He is a lucky fiance waiting for him, but he is an unbelievably
- 0:17smart guy in the pitching world. He spent time with the Angels at
- 0:21Iowa and is recent to Twitter fame with his workload thread
- 0:26that we're going to spend a lot of time on today.
- 0:28That was perfect timing, gave us some fuel to speak on.
- 0:32But with all this, I'm going to pass it over to Austin.
- 0:35Let him talk a little bit more about his bio.
- 0:37Austin, thanks a ton for joining us today.
- 0:39Yeah, yeah, no problem. Thanks for having me on.
- 0:41I'm actually currently in Iowa. I am from Iowa.
- 0:44I've been here my whole life. But just quick about kind of my
- 0:47my journey. I played baseball growing up
- 0:49wasn't great. I played is what I'll say in
- 0:52college for year, I actually blew out on pretty much the
- 0:54first day of practice. And so I got a chance to
- 0:57experience a lot of lot of the behind the scenes stuff when I
- 0:59was hurt in terms of like charting or some of that intro
- 1:02stuff. And from there just kind of
- 1:03blossomed into some more curiosity on the coaching side,
- 1:07got into formal coaching, coaching the local high school
- 1:10team after I transferred from my junior college.
- 1:13And from there I did some like private pitching lessons.
- 1:15And as I kept doing it, just kind of my knowledge and
- 1:19curiosity kept growing, met some of the right people, which led
- 1:22me to the University of Iowa being a student manager and
- 1:25their analytics department for a year and a half, which really
- 1:29pretty much set me up for the career trajectory that I, that I
- 1:33currently on. And then from Iowa, was able to
- 1:35be with the Angels for two years as a pitching development
- 1:39analyst. And now I'm just doing a lot of
- 1:40consulting work, helping both high school, college and some
- 1:44professional guys with some throwing programs, some workload
- 1:46stuff like you mentioned, and some pitch design arsenal
- 1:49things. And you know, it's kind of a
- 1:50Jack of all trades right now, doing whatever I can to help
- 1:53pitchers develop. But yeah, I'm open book today.
- 1:55I love sharing my story to help inspire anyone because I wasn't
- 1:59a great baseball player, but like, I obviously made it to a
- 2:02pretty high level of coaching or job.
- 2:04So I want to help any way I can. Well, you might have the most
- 2:08humble 88 to 90 story of everyone that I've heard You,
- 2:12you said you'll you'll play, you said in air quotes, which is
- 2:17kind of crazy to me. I think most people that have
- 2:19seen 90 on a radar gun at least feel pretty good about
- 2:22themselves. So I guess that's that.
- 2:24Good old humble Midwest attitudes.
- 2:26Yeah, Yeah. Well, part of it too is credit
- 2:28to the the junior college I was at, Kirkwood Community College.
- 2:31We were, we were a machine. We made it to the JUCO World
- 2:33Series the year I was there. We had a guy get drafted,
- 2:37multiple D1 guys, and so even if I was throwing D 8 to 90, I
- 2:39probably wouldn't have sniffed the the mound very much.
- 2:42So as a powerhouse program it still is.
- 2:44And Coach Ryan is going to be one of my favorite coaches the
- 2:47rest of my life. He really took the shot on me
- 2:49and I'm always going to be grateful for that.
- 2:50But they got a, they got a pretty good program going on in
- 2:54Cedar Rapids. So I guess they humbled you.
- 2:56Maybe. Maybe you should have stayed
- 2:58smaller time so you could have been big fish, little pond.
- 3:00Yeah. Well, this never would.
- 3:01Have been where you are now. Yeah, I was gonna say I'm happy
- 3:04with what I what I did in my journey because who knows where
- 3:07I would have been if that all didn't happen.
- 3:09For sure. I guess kind of the funny,
- 3:13serendipitous way things work out.
- 3:16I heard on another podcast you did that you were at Northern
- 3:21Iowa and that's actually where you got connected with Robin
- 3:24Lund. Yeah, yeah.
- 3:25After I blew out, I transferred to University of Northern Iowa,
- 3:29which is in Cedar Falls, IA. That's my hometown.
- 3:31That's where I'm at right now, actually.
- 3:33And I never really thought about coaching once I got to you and
- 3:37I, so I ended up taking a coding class at you and I, I just
- 3:41learned to do like modeling and things like that.
- 3:43And so I had to do a final project getting into like make a
- 3:46model basically. And so I found this website
- 3:48called baseball savants that obviously I know very well now.
- 3:51And I got a bunch of baseball data and I was like, this is
- 3:53kind of fun. Maybe I can, I can do something
- 3:55like this with baseball. And so I actually searched the
- 3:58entire college, the whole like statistical department.
- 4:00I was a stats major, so talked to all the professors and didn't
- 4:04really know how to get into sports analytics.
- 4:06And then was lucky enough to find Robin Lund's name, who is
- 4:09just a professor of kinesiology at you and I for 17 years.
- 4:14He actually has a daughter that was in my grade in high school,
- 4:17so I knew roughly of him, but I got connected with him and he
- 4:20gave me this huge like I think it was like 3 or 4 pages of just
- 4:24like if you want to work in baseball, here's the things you
- 4:26need to know. Here's all these metrics, here's
- 4:28these conferences you can go to. I was like, wow, this guy is
- 4:31he's on top of it. And I did all of that and I
- 4:34still have that piece of paper. It sits on my desk as I as I
- 4:37move, as I go to places just to remind me of where I started.
- 4:40But as soon as I got to know Robin, I was like, this is going
- 4:43to be a guy in my corner. And then I get a call from him
- 4:46about a month later and he was like, hey, just letting you
- 4:47know, I just got a job in University of Iowa.
- 4:50He's a hitting coach actually is what he got hired for.
- 4:52And I was like, wow, I didn't know that was coming.
- 4:54You know, professor to D1 baseball coach doesn't happen
- 4:57too often, but him being in my corner as I was at Iowa with him
- 5:01and then as he moved to the Tigers, he's he's been an
- 5:04awesome resource for me and helping me grow in my career.
- 5:07For sure. So then when you went to Iowa,
- 5:10it was as a grad student, correct?
- 5:12Yep, Yep, Grad student I, I did a master's program there in in
- 5:15analytics, but again, kind of the big focus for me was working
- 5:18in their student manager program.
- 5:19They send a bunch of guys to pro ball jobs.
- 5:23And again, kind of just like anyone that's listening to this,
- 5:25if you want to get a job in pro ball, I was the place to go.
- 5:28They have tools, resources. It's a front office, it is a MLB
- 5:32front office run at a college level single handedly help help
- 5:35get that job. But it's any student that's
- 5:37there and it is the best experience that I had my whole
- 5:40college career. And so I can't recommend that
- 5:42enough. And the last thing with that is
- 5:44like the coaches completely buy into what these managers are
- 5:47doing. Analysts, even the on field,
- 5:49there's video and scouting, like there's departments and Coach
- 5:51Rick Heller, like he trusts the analysts, all the assistant
- 5:54coaches trust the analysts. They have just as much power as
- 5:58the coaches do in terms of giving their opinions.
- 6:00And that really got my foot in the door and gave me a lot of
- 6:02confidence, especially going into the job market with MLB
- 6:05teams, to really feel feel good about what I knew and my
- 6:09knowledge could translate to the highest level.
- 6:12So shout out Iowa baseball managers big time.
- 6:15I do want to kind of stick on that theme for a little bit.
- 6:18What was your first major project that you took on so
- 6:23beyond this one that you did for the coding class, when you got
- 6:27to Iowa and you were trying to make a difference for the first
- 6:30time, what did you look into? Were you assigned something or
- 6:33did you have a passion project right off the job?
- 6:36And I'll say before I go into that, is that's the nice thing
- 6:38about what they do at Iowa's. If you have some you're
- 6:40passionate about, they let you do it.
- 6:42If not, I mean, when I was there, obviously Robin had
- 6:45hundreds of ideas every day that you would just spill out and you
- 6:48could choose one. But really the, the biggest
- 6:50thing that got me on the map you could say is I, I researched
- 6:53dead zone fastballs. So dead zone being equal
- 6:57vertical and horizontal break. We had a picture that his name
- 6:59was Duncan David. He's in the Rays organization
- 7:01now. He had a dead zone fastball by
- 7:03the movement profile, but he performed really well.
- 7:06And so Robin had kind of wondered why is this happening?
- 7:09And so I did a lot of research on can you work with a dead zone
- 7:12fastball? And found a lot of things on
- 7:14obviously above average velocity of plays or a unique release.
- 7:18Got into some vertical approach angle stuff and some things that
- 7:21are common knowledge now. But the the stigma when I was
- 7:24going through it four or five years ago is just if you have a
- 7:26dead zone fastball, you're you're kind of screwed, which we
- 7:29know now it's like that's not the case at all, depending on
- 7:31your at least characteristics or even velocity.
- 7:34So that's really the big one that that got me started.
- 7:37And then the other one that I'm kind of known for brought up a
- 7:40lot as I helped build the stuff Plus model at Iowa, which is
- 7:43used very widely. It's still used to this day,
- 7:45which again, myself and Connor Curtis, who's going to work for
- 7:48the Brewers after he graduates, like he is a whiz.
- 7:51But that was that was a big project.
- 7:52That was the biggest project probably I've ever done,
- 7:54including my time with the Angels.
- 7:55And so that that was really helpful with just statistical
- 7:58knowledge and that was applicable right away.
- 8:00I can't tell you how many different uses we had for that
- 8:03and pitch design and scouting, and there's countless different
- 8:06uses for it, but those are really the two big ones that
- 8:09kind of stuck out for me. I feel like you laid out a fork
- 8:12in the road and I want to talk both about dead zone fastballs
- 8:16as well as stuff plus models. Sadly, the way my brain works is
- 8:19I'm probably going to go down one path and completely forget
- 8:22about the other one. That's all good.
- 8:24Three hours after we finish recording and then I'm going to
- 8:26be like, oh shoot, I need to call him.
- 8:28But the the one you brought up first was Dead Zone Fastballs.
- 8:31Sounds like some of that was influenced by what Robin was
- 8:34interested in. But if we can spend some more
- 8:38time on that theme, what are you now seen that differentiates
- 8:45what you might have originally thought was a dead zone fastball
- 8:48versus what actually is? I know you highlighted really
- 8:51quickly VAA different release characteristics or things like
- 8:55that. So what or how can someone just
- 8:59identify a dead zone fastball that won't necessarily play?
- 9:03That's a really good question and I actually wrote a follow
- 9:06up. It was the last blog I did at
- 9:07Iowa to like a Part 2 of the dead zone and something that is
- 9:11still my answer for this question, which is arm slot data
- 9:14is now available on on baseball Savant.
- 9:16So we didn't have arm slot data when I was in Iowa.
- 9:18We had Trackman data that just release height, release side,
- 9:21but I kind of made a pseudo arm angle metric from that.
- 9:24And So what I did was I looked at the movement of the fastball
- 9:28compared to arm angle. And the more that deviates the,
- 9:31you know, better results, you could say.
- 9:33So in other words, your dead zone fastball is going to be
- 9:36dependent on your arm slot. A guy that has a really high arm
- 9:39slot more North and South. If their fastball has more rise,
- 9:43it's going to be more of a dead zone because the hitter expects
- 9:45the ball to kind of stay in the plane.
- 9:47But guys, straight side armor, they're going to expect the ball
- 9:49to go more east West. We're seeing that a lot with
- 9:52public projects on Twitter that are discovering that with savant
- 9:56data. But that's something that four
- 9:57years ago I wrote that in my second Dead Zone blog.
- 10:00If you have a movement profile that differs from where your arm
- 10:04slot is, and you can even expand it to just like generally look
- 10:08at where your arm slot is. If the ball doesn't follow that
- 10:11plane your arm is on, you probably have some unique
- 10:13characteristics or you wouldn't be a dead zone guy.
- 10:15To put it at the very lowest level.
- 10:17If you have no tech available, that's something you can very
- 10:20easily identify. But again, to this day, I would
- 10:23say that unexpected movements, kind of what I call it, where
- 10:26your arm slot is, plays a huge role in what the hitter
- 10:29perceives as what's going to happen with your fastball.
- 10:31So the more that your ball moves different from what the hitter
- 10:34is used to or what they perceive might happen, the better the
- 10:37results are going to be. And if you stick in that
- 10:39category of it moves exactly like what hitters are used to
- 10:42seeing, that would be the dead zone.
- 10:43It has much less to do with the strictly movement vertical and
- 10:47horizontal numbers. I'm sure stemming off of this is
- 10:52part of the Arsenal design concept of why certain maybe
- 10:57hand position biases or from our side of things with flex pro
- 11:02grip finger pressure biases can result in more favorable Arsenal
- 11:10potentials. As in Tread released that that
- 11:14big thing maybe a month ago now where I think Tyler Zombro broke
- 11:19down the different typical pitches that go along with a
- 11:24certain pronation or supination bias or amount or on our side,
- 11:28like an index or middle finger bias from what we're seeing with
- 11:31Flex Pro Grip, which thankfully this is starting to tie into
- 11:35stuff Plus. So now I kind of see how you
- 11:37went down this path, I guess. Thanks for opening this door.
- 11:40I thought it was a fork in the road but they intersect.
- 11:42Again, no. That was my plan the whole time.
- 11:44Good. Yeah, you nailed it.
- 11:45Then you're the perfect guest. So when we're when we're looking
- 11:49at these fastball deviations where it's transitioning from a
- 11:53dead zone to a potentially more effective fastball or an
- 11:57unexpected fastball, is that initial fastball movement what
- 12:02you're using for additional arsenal design?
- 12:05Where are you going with the next step for designing an
- 12:09arsenal? Off of the fastball you're
- 12:10asking? Or is it the fastball that you
- 12:13even start with? Yeah, I mean in in my case, a
- 12:16lot of the time it was the fastball that I started with
- 12:18simply because and this baseball shifting away from this, which I
- 12:22completely agree with. But most of the time your
- 12:24fastball is going to be your your most thrown pitch.
- 12:26And so if you look at the numbers, fastballs typically
- 12:29perform the worst out of any pitch as well.
- 12:31And so if we're going to throw a pitch a lot, but it doesn't
- 12:34perform good, we're still going to try to maximize the value
- 12:36that we can get out of that. So again, getting out of that
- 12:39dead zone was kind of the the number one way that we found to
- 12:42maximize performance of those pitches.
- 12:44And that could be again, from a lot of different ways to to
- 12:46change that dead zone profile in terms of like spin axis, just
- 12:50getting more backspin from a lower slot can help make it
- 12:53flatter or some seam shifted weight characteristics to
- 12:55improve sync or even rise. There's a lot of different ways
- 12:58you can go with it, but the main driver was strictly just how can
- 13:02we improve the fastball performance if we're going to
- 13:04throw it this much? And again, now that now that
- 13:06orbs are throwing on fastballs more than fastballs, which
- 13:09again, I'm, I'm a huge fan of, if it's your best pitch, throw
- 13:12it more. I think that you can design A
- 13:13lot off of that fastball kind of deviation.
- 13:17But in my opinion, everything starts with the fastball because
- 13:20that's kind of your baseline characteristics with the biases
- 13:22that you talked about with supination pronation, Everything
- 13:24kind of works off of that. And, and the video from Tread
- 13:27explained it really well. There's, there's not a lot you
- 13:30can do differing wise based on how your, your biases are.
- 13:34And so that's really why I think we, we spent a lot of time with
- 13:37the fastball. It's just if you're going to
- 13:39throw it a lot, it better be a decent pitch.
- 13:42Otherwise you're going to get hammered and then you're going
- 13:44to have to rely on a lot of other stuff.
- 13:46And so setting up that foundation, I think it's going
- 13:48to help expand your arsenal and you'll get into other stuff plus
- 13:51pitches. But, and I'll say it again, I
- 13:54know I've repeated it a lot, but like you have to just set up
- 13:56that fastball in order to be able to perform at A at a decent
- 14:00level. For very few pitchers, their
- 14:02fastball is going to be their best pitch.
- 14:04But as long as it's serviceable, a lot of the other options in
- 14:07their arsenal playoff. And depending on your stuff plus
- 14:09model, the movement of your fastball can be a factor in it
- 14:12or it could not depending on how the models built.
- 14:14But there's a lot that can be taken into account with just
- 14:17strictly getting away from that dead zone.
- 14:19Before I move on to the next question and you bring up
- 14:24fastball and the importance of it.
- 14:26One thing that I try to remind people when I have these
- 14:29conversations and I'd be curious to hear your opinion on it.
- 14:34If we look at an entire lifetime of throws made by a single
- 14:38individual, beyond even what you're doing in game, every
- 14:42single throw that you have ever made in your life, and we break
- 14:45down the pitch type, I'm going to assume that no less than 97%
- 14:52of every throw that you have made in your entire life has
- 14:55been some form of a fastball. No doubt.
- 14:58Yeah. Whether it's a 4 seam grip, 2
- 14:59seam grip, I don't care. You have probably thrown a
- 15:03fastball way closer to the majority of the pitches you have
- 15:07ever thrown in your life. Then closer to 75%, it's
- 15:11probably way closer to 100 and. Then you know, this isn't a
- 15:14conversation for now, but that's a huge unlock for a lot of guys
- 15:16Like, hey, you're throwing 30 pitches on your recovery days
- 15:20and you're throwing all just fastballs, but you're just
- 15:22holding the grip normally. You have 100 recovery days
- 15:25throughout the year. That's 3000 pitches that you're
- 15:27wasting just throwing fastball. Like I'm not saying you're going
- 15:30to get a ton better by throwing lower intent, but you can get
- 15:32better feel you can get more comfortable.
- 15:34Like there's a lot of different things you can do, but you're
- 15:36absolutely right, not I mean, 97% sounds like a pretty good
- 15:39number. It's just not worked on a lot in
- 15:41terms of other pitches. And you just kind of just kind
- 15:43of been always accepted. I'm playing catch.
- 15:45Just throw fastballs when there's there's a lot of value
- 15:48in throwing things other than fastballs in terms of not just
- 15:51working on shapes, but just comfortability and some other
- 15:54different things. So I love that point.
- 15:57So maybe that's just a little development unlock there or a
- 16:00little take away that somebody could have even from the
- 16:02conversation that we're running through now, take time to throw
- 16:06other pitches. Yeah, it's it's that simple.
- 16:08You can probably spare backing down from throwing 97% fastball
- 16:14in your life. Yep.
- 16:17Because you throw 97% fastball in your life, why does it then
- 16:21make sense to go into a game when you're throwing 50%?
- 16:24Fastball and we're going to talk about my workload thread, but I
- 16:27forgot who was someone replied and said does throwing off speed
- 16:30have an impact? And my answer to the workload
- 16:33question strictly was not necessarily workload is more
- 16:35just about the total kind of foundation that you lay.
- 16:38But you still have to kind of on ramp those those non fastball
- 16:41options. If you just play catch with your
- 16:44fastball for the 1st 6-10 weeks of your on ramp and then you're
- 16:49throwing bullpens and the first time you hold your change up
- 16:51grip is when you're off the mound, like that's not set up
- 16:54very good. You're going to be really
- 16:54behind. And so in terms of, like I said,
- 16:57comfortability, there's there's a huge gap that I think baseball
- 16:59community has to really improve that feel.
- 17:02And you know, there's, there's no date I had to back this up.
- 17:04But I feel like the more comfortable you are, the more of
- 17:07them say accurate. But just like you have more
- 17:09confidence in it when you throw it, whether it's accurate or
- 17:12not, the more confidence you have in a pitch I think is
- 17:14better for a pitcher regardless of the situation.
- 17:17Generally, comfortability is going to lead to confidence.
- 17:19There's no question those two things are linked.
- 17:21It is funny you bring that up. I know we talked about this off
- 17:24air, but that was Lance Brozdowski who responded.
- 17:28Trust me, I mined through your your thread and the in the
- 17:32comments. Maybe someone else said it too,
- 17:34but it it's nice that we have a little Lance Brozdowski call
- 17:37back. He's getting mentioned more and
- 17:38more and his time's coming on the podcast at some point.
- 17:41I I got to catch him before spring training kicks.
- 17:43Lance Lance is one of the best guys in the public sphere out
- 17:46there. The work he does is just
- 17:48incredible and the time he puts in, he is doing a lot of good
- 17:51for the game. Big time.
- 17:53I do want to comment on that breaking ball concept or the
- 17:57change up and introducing that into your pre season workload or
- 18:02your acute to chronic workload ratio in the ramp up that you're
- 18:04going through. Maybe this was an undertone that
- 18:08you intended anyways. But something that I want to
- 18:10call out is beyond just gaining comfort from a performance
- 18:14aspect. If you haven't introduced more
- 18:17supination bias pitches in your season on ramp and the first
- 18:22time you go to RIP a cutter or slider is when you're at full
- 18:25intent on a mound, you might not think of it as dangerous or
- 18:30something of that nature. I don't want to label it
- 18:33necessarily dangerous, but that is a.
- 18:36Different stress, stress. Yeah, exactly.
- 18:38Yeah, Jinx. But it is a completely different
- 18:41stress. And because it is a greater
- 18:45stress on the supination, you're delaying the pronation of your
- 18:48arm and the way it works, you're changing the kinematics of your
- 18:52sequence. And something that we have found
- 18:54if you are, if you're gripping a supinated pitch, you're trying
- 18:57to throw a supinated pitch. That pitch then puts you in a
- 19:02position of greater supination at maximum lay back as well.
- 19:06And with that, we have found that the muscle tendon units
- 19:10that can support the UCL when they are in supination cannot
- 19:15produce as much force as if they were in a neutral or pronated
- 19:19position. And what is super interesting is
- 19:23that is not the case as much for individuals that would be
- 19:28classified as quote UN quote supinators because they have
- 19:31spent more time in supination for their entire lives.
- 19:35But let's say you are a more like traditional pitcher that
- 19:39throws a carry 4 scene fastball or like more like natural arm
- 19:43side movement and you struggle to get anything to go glove
- 19:46side. But you get introduced to this
- 19:48new slider grip or something. Or somebody tells you a sweeper
- 19:51is going to change everything you do.
- 19:54That pitch is going to be more stressful than what you are used
- 19:57to because of the supination demands that you are not
- 20:00accustomed to. So everything Austin said about
- 20:03introducing those kind of throws at lower stress levels early on
- 20:09is going to make it easier the deeper you get into your ramp
- 20:12up. Yeah.
- 20:13And I trust you on this with the data that I have, I haven't been
- 20:16able to firmly place that with the workload numbers, but I
- 20:19have. But if there's anyone that has
- 20:20done the research, I know it's going to be you guys.
- 20:22And, but intuitively, like you said, it makes sense that you
- 20:25don't want to start and introducing that stress when
- 20:27you're at the highest intent of throwing off the mound, when
- 20:30you've been throwing for six to 10 weeks and you haven't touched
- 20:33any sort of those other stressors that you're going to
- 20:34have. It's just, it makes a lot of
- 20:36sense intuitively and you guys have the numbers to back that.
- 20:39So it's it's for sure something that a lot of pitchers are kind
- 20:42of missing in in a lot of their development plans.
- 20:44And I guess this is a little bit of a shameless plug.
- 20:46Yeah, Austin said. The data, this is a study that
- 20:49we have coming out here in the next few months.
- 20:52We partnered on research with this with Dylan Newcomer, who's
- 20:55the physical therapist out at Driveline, as well as Doctor
- 20:59Matt Fury, who's an orthopedist down in Baton Rouge, and Doctor
- 21:03Gunner Brolinson and the Virginia Tech sports medicine
- 21:06team. So we we have a lot coming out
- 21:08on this. If anybody wants to hear more
- 21:10about it, Darrell and I did an episode together, probably
- 21:14shoot, I don't know, 15 to 20 episodes ago now.
- 21:18I don't know what number it is, so I can't call it out
- 21:20specifically, but Daryl and I run through the research we have
- 21:22coming down the line. But we're we're going to go back
- 21:25to focusing on Austin here. And I did want to make the
- 21:28transition to the stuff plus model.
- 21:30And we, we talked about fastballs, we talked about
- 21:33Arsenal design. Then we went on this really fun
- 21:35diatribe about introducing pitches at different times.
- 21:38But I'm not super educated when it comes to stuff Plus models.
- 21:42I think they're really cool and I think they're useful, but I
- 21:46don't understand fully how they are built.
- 21:49What I think I know, and I could be grossly wrong so feel free to
- 21:53tell me, is that there's generally some sort of I, I
- 21:58don't necessarily want to say biasing built into it, but stuff
- 22:02plus models can be built different ways, so they wait
- 22:05different pitches differently. That is absolutely true.
- 22:09OK, great. So now I don't know if this is a
- 22:12trade secret for the Iowa Stuff Plus model or maybe if you just
- 22:16want to talk more generally about where Stuff Plus models
- 22:20differ and what they might weight more strongly or more
- 22:25weakly in different regards. But I I would love to go down
- 22:28that, Yeah. I'll start with general stuff
- 22:31plus models, so like most MLB teams, and then the public data
- 22:34that's available. Are you familiar with LIKE run
- 22:36value? You know the kind of different
- 22:37run value states? I would say probably slightly
- 22:40more than the average individual just because I love this stuff,
- 22:44but nowhere close to getting an analytics job.
- 22:47So, so basically if you break it down on a pitch by pitch level,
- 22:51you have a batter up with a certain base state, certain
- 22:53count, and certain number of outs.
- 22:55You throw a pitch. If it's a ball, it changes your
- 22:58run expectancy because the count will change.
- 23:00If it's a strike, it changes your run expectancy to try less
- 23:03and so that change in run expectancy on the pitch level
- 23:05and obviously if it's put into play and it's a home run, your
- 23:08run expectancy is going to go way up.
- 23:09Like all of those changes in run value.
- 23:12That is what traditional stuff Plus models on the MLB side are
- 23:16trained on. That is public data.
- 23:17That's on baseball Savant. MLB teams can use that.
- 23:20There's a lot of different ways you can use that, but that is
- 23:22traditionally what you're trying to predict with a Stuff Plus
- 23:25model is when I throw this pitch, what is the best possible
- 23:29situation in terms of getting a negative run value because for
- 23:33pitchers you want to lower that run value.
- 23:35So that is what traditional Stuff Plus models are built on.
- 23:38What I can say for Iowa is that Trackman does not give you
- 23:42change in run value. So the biggest challenge we had
- 23:46when I was helping build it at Iowa was that we had to come up
- 23:49with what are we actually trying to predict?
- 23:51Because a lot of the college Stuff Plus models you see are
- 23:55actually just models that are predicting like with or
- 23:58something again, and those are very valuable models.
- 24:01But I think a stuff plus model can take into account more than
- 24:04just with, there's a lot of different ways to get positive
- 24:06results. Ground balls, we contact
- 24:08whatever you value. So without giving the special
- 24:11sauce at Iowa, because I truly believe it is the best stuff
- 24:14plus model in college baseball and probably beat some MLB team
- 24:17stuff plus model, we had to combine a lot of different
- 24:20aspects that either Iowa valued or we saw generalize in the
- 24:24college trends. Here is what leads to success,
- 24:27not just getting with obviously a part of it, but whatever else
- 24:31that we kind of cook together and combine that into one
- 24:34number. And then that's what we used to
- 24:36predict. And so that that was really
- 24:38challenging and why college stuff plus models are very hard
- 24:41to come by because the run scoring environment in college
- 24:44is obviously different than than pro ball.
- 24:46And that's getting into your actual question with some
- 24:48biases. Completely depends on the run
- 24:50environment to college, to MLB to even like high school if you
- 24:53want to go there is going to be completely different in terms of
- 24:56like what produces positive results.
- 24:59Where when you get to a lower level like high school, velocity
- 25:02is probably going to be valued a lot more because you can get
- 25:05away with just strictly throwing hard in high school regardless
- 25:07of shapes or anything. Obviously when you get to
- 25:09college, the hitters are better than highest level at MLB,
- 25:12they're going to be fastballs. Velo really doesn't matter
- 25:15unless you're Ben Joyce and you're throwing 105.
- 25:18It's like it really depends on on what's going on.
- 25:20So I would say the overarching theme that I see in a lot of
- 25:24stuff plus models is just like whether whether you realize it
- 25:27or not, there's some degree of overfitting.
- 25:29And what I mean by overfitting is it fits specifically the kind
- 25:33of data you use to train the model instead of generalizing
- 25:36what's happening in the real world.
- 25:38So when you build a model, you have separate data that you use
- 25:41to train your model, and then you have normally data that you
- 25:44use to kind of test it out. And the goal of building a model
- 25:47is not to fit your test data the best.
- 25:50There's certain metrics and you know, we're not going to get
- 25:51into that with this. That's not what the podcast is
- 25:53about. But there's certain metrics that
- 25:54you can check to see how well are you actually fitting your
- 25:57data. That's not the goal of a stuff
- 25:59plus model. And maybe this is just my
- 26:01opinion, but I think it's it's pretty accepted.
- 26:03Your goal is to explain in general what happened in the
- 26:06environment, in the MLB or high school or college, whatever
- 26:09you're building for. And so a lot of teams just try
- 26:11to fit what's going on in the actual data that they have
- 26:14instead of generally what trends do we see in a very simple
- 26:19example, like if you look at actually velocity numbers for
- 26:23like an MLB Stuff Plus model, it'll show that the people that
- 26:26throw really slow are actually really good.
- 26:29But that's just something called survivorship bias, which means
- 26:32if you throw slow in the MLB, you're probably going to be
- 26:35pretty successful. Otherwise, you're not going to
- 26:36be in the MLB. So yeah, a very simple example
- 26:39there. But just that that's one of the
- 26:40examples of biases of fitting your data very, very
- 26:44specifically instead of trying to generalize.
- 26:46Here's the overall trend that we see.
- 26:48OK, You know, it was a lot. I know that was a lot.
- 26:52I love this and there there's a small part of me that wanted to
- 26:55tell you to shut up when you said this isn't the goal of the
- 26:58podcast. Like we'll, we'll go full bore
- 27:00analytics podcast if you want to, because you've got you've
- 27:03got me cooking a little bit. Now.
- 27:05Maybe a more specific question. Let's take a slight step back
- 27:09and maybe lighten the air a little bit from a like in depth
- 27:14analytics discussion. Maybe if you can give an example
- 27:17of how two different models could assess the same slider or
- 27:23something. You have a ton of familiarity
- 27:26with Brody Breck who throws the living piss out of the baseball
- 27:31and as a result was throwing What's is the gyro slider thing?
- 27:3692 miles an hour or something like that.
- 27:40I'd assume some. Some models probably grade that
- 27:43out as the single best pitch in baseball, and some probably
- 27:46grade it out as like a slightly above average pitch.
- 27:49Yeah. So I'll use that exact example
- 27:51and explain probably the biggest difference that I see among like
- 27:54really sophisticated models and some of the simpler ones that
- 27:57again both have their places. So again, with Brody's example,
- 28:00he throws A4 seam that's upper 90s, reaches triple digits and
- 28:04then a gyro slider that's, I said really hard 92.
- 28:07Just side note, like watching him pitch in person is maybe the
- 28:10single greatest experience I've had maybe besides watching Ben
- 28:13Joyce throw a pen, both of those two just electric.
- 28:15But in terms of Brody's stuff and how that can be seen
- 28:18differently with the slider, it depends on the inputs of the
- 28:21model. So what's going into the model,
- 28:24starting with how it would be graded as the best pitch in
- 28:27baseball? If you just take in a vacuum,
- 28:29you're throwing a slider 92 miles an hour.
- 28:31That the gyro slider, that's just a nasty pitch.
- 28:34Just looking at someone throws a pitch that's 92 that has an inch
- 28:38of glove slide sweep or whatever it is, and then zero inches of
- 28:41induced vertical break. That's just a nasty pitch that
- 28:44is great. I think that one's pretty
- 28:46self-explanatory. You can just see that's a really
- 28:48good pitch. Where you get into how that
- 28:49could be an average to above average pitch is if you start to
- 28:52take in other characteristics of the arsenal.
- 28:55So a Brody's example, if you compare that with differentials
- 28:59between his fastball velocity and his fastball movement, he's
- 29:03throwing the slider 92, he's throwing his fastball in 98.
- 29:07That's a Six Mile an hour difference.
- 29:08That's not a ton. What you actually see with some
- 29:11breaking pitches and off speed pitches is the bigger that Velo
- 29:14differential, the more success that you find in terms of width
- 29:17or some of these other things. And so for a breaking ball that
- 29:21would be 6 miles an hour off of the fastball.
- 29:23That's not a great velocity difference between the two.
- 29:27And some stuff models don't like that as much.
- 29:29They want to see more of like an 8 to 10 mile an hour difference
- 29:32for a gyro slider. The other thing too is like
- 29:35fastball movement, if you have any in height.
- 29:38I haven't seen Brody's movement profile in a bit, but I think he
- 29:41doesn't have a ton of rise on his fastball.
- 29:43So let's say you know, it's 15 inches or whatever and his
- 29:46sliders at zero. That's still a decent vertical
- 29:49differential, but it could be more, it could have more depth
- 29:53to it, it could have even more sweeper, whatever it is.
- 29:55And you can get into the velocity sweep trade-offs.
- 29:58But if you compare things to the fastball, and that's how you
- 30:02grade other pitches with movement differentials and
- 30:04velocity differentials, it could be seen as well, yeah, it's a
- 30:08really good pitch. If you just look at the pitch,
- 30:10if you compare it to his fastball, it's not that much of
- 30:14a difference compared to if it's a little bit slower, maybe trade
- 30:17some movement, it will grade better because it's predicting
- 30:20more width or more positive results.
- 30:23And that's the biggest example of two pitches or one pitch
- 30:26being graded vastly different based on how the model is input.
- 30:30And that's that's what I see, like I said, a lot with
- 30:32sophisticated models as they compare it to fastball.
- 30:35And because that's again, your primary pitch for a lot of guys.
- 30:38And then what it kind of does off of the fastball.
- 30:41So you can extrapolate that to an East West pitcher using like
- 30:44an Angels, former Angels pitcher, I guess Jimmy Herget
- 30:48very much like 2 scene that goes this way.
- 30:50And he has a huge sweeper that grades well in some stuff models
- 30:54because it's like a huge East West differential versus if you
- 30:58just look in a vacuum. And again, a sweeper moves a
- 31:00ton, but it's not super hard. Maybe it's not graded as much.
- 31:04So I really think a lot of that can come down to just what are
- 31:06the inputs, especially is it comparing it to the fastball or
- 31:10the primary pitch that they throw?
- 31:12Or is it just looking at the pitch in the vacuum and there's
- 31:14some pretty big differences. And so especially if you're
- 31:17looking on Twitter and some of these other people that are
- 31:19doing public models, they're all great, they're all doing great
- 31:22work. But that's that's really why you
- 31:24see some of these kind of drastic differences between
- 31:26specific pitch types. Thank you so freaking much.
- 31:29I can't begin to express my debt of gratitude for you explaining
- 31:35stuff plus models and the differences that occurred
- 31:38between them now. It's hard.
- 31:40It's it's really hard to kind of get an understanding and
- 31:42obviously, like I've done it before.
- 31:43That's why I know you know more than most people.
- 31:46But for someone that's just looking at it, if they see Brody
- 31:49Breck sliders 102 step plus and then someone else has it as a
- 31:52170, it's like what's going on here?
- 31:55Is it just can we not trust either of these?
- 31:57And so a lot of it just pen depends on I said the model
- 32:00inputs and finding a lot of people do good work on
- 32:03documenting, you know, what's going on with their models and
- 32:05how they built it. But it's really important to
- 32:07just know what's going into it and what you value, because
- 32:10maybe I just value what is the pitch itself.
- 32:13Maybe you value how it plays off of the fastball and that's
- 32:15that's the model you use. And there's nothing wrong with
- 32:17with using either one of them. Just goes back to kind of the
- 32:19individuality of your beliefs and and what you value as an
- 32:22organization. I think one more surface level
- 32:25thing to hit on here. You said in that example scoring
- 32:29at A1O2 versus 174, and if I'm not mistaken the points above or
- 32:36below 100 is the percent above or below the replacement level
- 32:43or average level pitch correct or something?
- 32:46That also that also depends on the model in general.
- 32:49I think most people that that is true.
- 32:50I know for Iowa's we adjusted it a little bit where we controlled
- 32:54the standard deviation. So 1 standard deviation above
- 32:57the average would be 25 points. So like a 125 would be roughly
- 33:0270th percentile pitch and then a 150 would be 90th and then you
- 33:08keep going up from there, OK. But I think most public models
- 33:11have a little bit tighter of a window.
- 33:13So like, again, it's not exactly right.
- 33:15But in general, if you want to say it's 10% better, that's not
- 33:18too far off, just to put it very simply.
- 33:21OK, well again this this helped tremendously.
- 33:23Hopefully people listening feel the same because this is this
- 33:27has been eye opening for me also.
- 33:30You make me feel a lot better about one of my single favorite
- 33:35pitchers to watch of all time. You spoke of Brody Brac and then
- 33:39Ben Joyce and watching those guys throw live.
- 33:41There's a guy who's now with the White Sox, Jairo Iriarte.
- 33:46I watched him throw in the Miners when he was with the
- 33:48Padres and what he could do with the baseball was unbelievable.
- 33:52And for example, he threw this weird change up thing at like 89
- 33:59to 92 and mostly like 90 to 92 in his fastballs 949596.
- 34:07So like really poor differential Velo wise.
- 34:11And his change up kind of behaved as if it was a
- 34:16left-handed gyro slider as a righty.
- 34:20Yeah. So like not a ton of horizontal.
- 34:23It was more like dart. It was really good.
- 34:26He performed really well with it.
- 34:28And then every time I went to go look at analytics or anything,
- 34:32no models liked his change up. Yeah, that's I didn't understand
- 34:36why. And that's kind of something I
- 34:37haven't really touched on, but the models are built on previous
- 34:40data, right? So if that pitch isn't thrown,
- 34:43you don't have varieties throwing that type of pitch.
- 34:45The model doesn't really know what to base that off of
- 34:48historically. It's kind of like I said,
- 34:50extrapolating is taking your data and applying it or
- 34:53predicting it based on something that the model hasn't really
- 34:56seen or your training data hasn't seen.
- 34:58So just because of the number say it doesn't work.
- 35:01It's like Tyler Rogers, there's not that many historical
- 35:04pitchers that are having the movement profile that he does.
- 35:07So a lot of the time his stuff plus grades are either like
- 35:11extreme ends, they're either 250 or they're negative.
- 35:16And and again, it's not really good or really bad.
- 35:18It's just there's no historical data to go off of it.
- 35:21And so that's that's a really good example of again, like you
- 35:24can't just judge stuff. Plus for how good a pitch is in
- 35:27general, there's a lot more context that can be taken into
- 35:29account, especially if it's kind of that Unicorn pitcher outlier.
- 35:32And you bring up that story just brings up one more that I have
- 35:35to bring up with Ben Joyce because my first year with the
- 35:37Angels, one of the spring training games, they played Team
- 35:40USA when they were doing the the World Baseball Classic and Ben
- 35:43Joyce threw a like slider to Pete Alonso and he was throwing
- 35:47one O 3 that day or whatever. And I think the slider was like
- 35:5178. It was just like 2530 miles an
- 35:55hour. Like it was more of like a
- 35:56sweeper type shape. It was oh man, you got to look
- 35:59up the video. It was one of the funniest
- 36:01things I've seen. And it was 2 feet outside, but
- 36:03Alonzo still swung at it. He struck out.
- 36:05It was one of my favorite memories, but we all we all just
- 36:08kind of looked at it like that's like 30 miles an hour off of
- 36:11this fastball I was just throwing, which again, some
- 36:13models are going to be like, wow, I hate that.
- 36:14And some models are going to be like, wow, that's a great pitch.
- 36:17But it was it was fun to see for sure.
- 36:20This, like I said, has been eye opening.
- 36:22I appreciate all the personal stories and then just the
- 36:26general talk on Stuff plus models, but that probably feels
- 36:31like a pretty good spot to tie up the Super nerdy discussions
- 36:36of analytic stuff Plus. Now maybe we should get into the
- 36:41weeds on workload management, which I know you're super
- 36:45passionate about. Let's do it.
- 36:47OK, you recently posted a thread, a very timely one, about
- 36:53guys throwing over winter break and what days off can do to your
- 36:59acute to chronic workload. We've had Casey Mulholland on
- 37:02the podcast to talk about workload.
- 37:05Dylan Newcomer has talked about workload and especially using
- 37:08Pulse. I like to think the audience
- 37:10should be pretty educated on this, so feel free to get as in
- 37:14the weeds as you want to with the topic.
- 37:17Perfect. I love it.
- 37:18I love talking about it. Good.
- 37:19Yeah. Even if you just want to go
- 37:21verbal tweet to start and talk about the project you took on,
- 37:25what you looked at, and the data you presented, I think that
- 37:28would be great. For sure.
- 37:30So right now I'm working with a lot of just individual pictures
- 37:33on throwing programs. Some of them are high schoolers
- 37:36in Iowa, some of them are high schoolers not in Iowa.
- 37:38Some of them are college, even some professional.
- 37:40And so there's a lot of different timelines on like when
- 37:43you need to be ready, where obviously spring training for a
- 37:46lot of guys it's going to be earlier and then high school
- 37:49baseball starts in the spring. And then something unique.
- 37:51I don't even know if you know this high school baseball in
- 37:53Iowa is actually in the summer. And so like for the guys that
- 37:56I'm working in high school in Iowa, we still have like 5
- 37:59months until they're even starting practice, which is
- 38:01weird concept, but as I'm doing this, I just write throwing
- 38:05programs. I use the driveline pull
- 38:06sensors. And so with the workload number
- 38:09you get each day, obviously it's a sum of the total number of
- 38:12throws and the intensity of each of those throws combined into
- 38:15one number. I had a lot of different people
- 38:17that were texting me like, Hey, I'm going on vacation this week
- 38:20for, for Christmas or whatever. I'm whatever the case was, they
- 38:24were going to miss some days. And I, I am a big proponent of
- 38:27if you need to miss days or you're going on vacation, I'm
- 38:30never going to tell you no, no, you can't go on vacation.
- 38:32I always give everyone Christmas off.
- 38:33Like I'm not a monster, but a lot of not a lot.
- 38:37But there's some guys that are like, I'm gonna be in Costa Rica
- 38:39for 10 days. I was like, OK, what actually
- 38:42happens if you go to Costa Rica and you don't pick up a
- 38:45baseball? Does that have as big of an
- 38:48impact as in my mind? It has?
- 38:50And I'm like, you're gonna miss 10 days of your throwing
- 38:52program. And so all I did was I took my,
- 38:54my current throwing program and I have a base template that I
- 38:57use where there's like 2 light days, 2 medium days and two
- 39:01heavy days. And then you get a complete off
- 39:02day in there. And so I just took that exact
- 39:05program and then I just copied it out however far 5-6 months in
- 39:09advance. And one of those heavy days is
- 39:12like a bullpen day. And one of them is like a like
- 39:14live or really heavy day. And so with the heaviest day, I
- 39:18would increase the workload a little bit to simulate the on
- 39:21ramp that we would normally do as you're going into the season.
- 39:24And so the actual point of the tweet was at different chronic
- 39:27workloads. So chronic workload again is
- 39:29like your long term, what do you built up for over the last 28
- 39:32days once you reached a certain chronic workload?
- 39:34And I did this from, I believe it was eight through 12 or
- 39:38something like that. I would basically just then stop
- 39:42and put zeros for 2345 all the way through 10 days in a row and
- 39:46see what happens to your chronic.
- 39:47Does it crash? Does it stay the same?
- 39:49Can you leave it afloat for a little bit?
- 39:51And basically what I found is once you get past like 3 or 4
- 39:57off days in a row, it takes at least 10 days to build back up
- 40:02to the spot that you were previously.
- 40:05So in the context of most people right now, they're on ramping,
- 40:08they are continuing to grow. If you take days off, not only
- 40:11are you going to stop your on ramp, but you're going to go
- 40:13down in your chronic workload and you're going to have to
- 40:17spend 10 days just getting to that same point and then be able
- 40:20to continue to move up. And so really, and I didn't put
- 40:23this on the tweet, but it'll take three to four weeks just to
- 40:27get back to a suitable point in your on ramp to get feeling
- 40:31comfortable for, for where you're going to be heading into
- 40:33the season. The last thing I'll say is
- 40:35generalizing. The more fit you were, so the
- 40:38further into your on ramp you got, the higher your chronic
- 40:41ratio was or your chronic workload, excuse me, the more
- 40:44detrimental it was when you took days off, which again,
- 40:47intuitively makes sense. The more in shape you are, the
- 40:50worse it's going to be when you take days off.
- 40:52And a lot of people, it's hard to explain at first, but when I
- 40:55use the lifting example, it clicks for a lot of people.
- 40:57Like if you're lifting and you take 10 days off, you can't just
- 41:01go into the weight room and a lot of the time throw on
- 41:04whatever you had for squat and you're doing it.
- 41:06You're doing it easy, right? You have to continue to work at
- 41:08it. It's the same with throwing,
- 41:10which shocks a lot of people when I say it, and maybe it's
- 41:12just the younger kids I work with, but when you when you
- 41:15don't throw, it takes just as much time.
- 41:17And then when you miss just that high intensity day, like your
- 41:20really big push day, it basically screws you up for two
- 41:25months. I mean, it'll take you like
- 41:26three to four weeks just to get back to your level and then
- 41:29another three to four weeks to continue to on ramp.
- 41:31And so I'm kind of the two overall themes, like don't skip
- 41:34more than three days in a row if you want to at least maintain
- 41:36where you're at. And if you skip more than a
- 41:38week, you are at least a month and a half behind where you were
- 41:42previously just by skipping 7 days.
- 41:45So that was kind of the biggest take away because pro guys, I
- 41:48get it's, it's a little bit easier because that's their job,
- 41:50but especially high school and college kids that are on break,
- 41:53it's really easy to skip throwing.
- 41:55You're with your friends or especially if you're in college,
- 41:57you go back, you see your high school friends or whatever.
- 41:59It can be really detrimental and it's one of the scariest times
- 42:02as a college coach when we were at Iowa, that was always the
- 42:05scariest thing, sending these guys home, not knowing what's
- 42:08going to happen if they're going to continue to throw.
- 42:09Luckily we were using pulse so we could count on that.
- 42:11But for people that don't have pulse or they can't rely on it
- 42:14too much, it's a scary feeling setting these guys away for
- 42:18basically a month and and not knowing where they're going to
- 42:20be knowing when they come back. You have three weeks, maybe a
- 42:23month before they start playing games.
- 42:25And so hopefully it just opened up some eyes and had a lot of
- 42:28good feedback on it. And I did a follow up, which we
- 42:30can, you know, talk about a little bit more when you just
- 42:32throw lightly. But but overall like I just
- 42:35wanted to get the word out that throwing any amount is better
- 42:39than not throwing and and taking skip days.
- 42:41Even if you're in Costa Rica, you can still get throwing in on
- 42:44the beach. Like that would be awesome to do
- 42:46for one. But you can you can fit throwing
- 42:48in and it takes you 5 to 10 minutes even if you're just
- 42:51doing a light day. But skipping and throwing is
- 42:53just detrimental to a lot of guys in ways they don't realize.
- 42:56You said it's seemingly intuitive.
- 42:59I think that is worth spending a little bit of time on in the
- 43:03sense that it isn't that surprising to me when somebody
- 43:08says like, Oh well, I've been throwing so much.
- 43:11I've been so good about my on ramp so I can take time off
- 43:16because I've built up so much to get to this point.
- 43:20And then the example you gave was perfect when you talk about
- 43:23either sprinting or weightlifting, because that's,
- 43:29that's the equivalent stress level that we're dealing with
- 43:31here. Throwing is an incredibly
- 43:33stressful thing. Yes, it would be a little bit
- 43:35different if you whatever, we're just throwing BP for a living.
- 43:41You took time off, you could go back to throwing BP after taking
- 43:4510 days off. In fact, it would probably feel
- 43:48pretty good. But if you're if your mission is
- 43:52to throw baseballs as hard as you can and do it 456 innings a
- 43:58month from now or something two months from now, taking any days
- 44:03off is super detrimental. Because yes, you did not expose
- 44:07yourself to the stresses that you need to get accustomed to to
- 44:11handle the environment that you want to throw in.
- 44:15Yeah, yeah, that's that's exactly right.
- 44:17And the other thing with this whole thread is I just assumed
- 44:20when you started throwing again, you were just rejoining your
- 44:23college program and just on whatever schedule they are in
- 44:26reality, that's still not going to be very healthy for you.
- 44:28When you talk about your acute to chronic ratio, if you take
- 44:31those days off and you just continue to do what your program
- 44:34is doing, when you come back, you're still going to have these
- 44:36spikes and that Casey Mohan would call them.
- 44:39They're unhealthy still. Again, it's not like you're
- 44:41going to get hurt automatically, but you're still getting into
- 44:44these unhealthy zones. So when we talk about if you
- 44:47skip throwing and then you properly on ramp without these
- 44:50big spikes in ACR, it's going to take even more time to do that.
- 44:54And so not only, again, it does it take longer to actually get
- 44:58on to that same level as your, you know, peers or teammates,
- 45:03it's going to take a lot of time just to avoid those spikes.
- 45:07If you really want to do it in a healthy manner, which is
- 45:09something completely, you know, I didn't even talk about in the
- 45:12thread. But the avoiding those spikes
- 45:14when you take your acute, which is like your weekly average
- 45:18roughly, and then your chronic, like if you take those days off,
- 45:21your acute is going to be really high when you get back and your
- 45:23chronics not going to be as high.
- 45:25So you're going to get those big spikes where you're doing too
- 45:27much in the recent weeks versus what you've been built up for.
- 45:31And again, that's the same thing spelling disaster just as much
- 45:34as taking days off. And so I could have done a whole
- 45:36nother thread on the importance of that and how long it would
- 45:39actually take for a proper ramp up.
- 45:40But these people just are not throwing enough in my experience
- 45:45to really understand what this healthy on ramp is.
- 45:47But when they do it right, I've gotten so much feedback this
- 45:50year of like, I've thrown more than I ever have, but my arm
- 45:52feels the best it's that it's ever been.
- 45:54And it's like, it's not a coincidence.
- 45:56Most of the time people are concerned about overthrowing,
- 46:00but in reality it's the under throwing that does a lot of
- 46:02damage for guys, especially early on in the season.
- 46:05And I know that's something that Casey has talked about a lot and
- 46:07he's very passionate about, but it just makes sense and I have
- 46:11the data to back that up that it is just paramount that you get
- 46:14you're throwing in and establish that base, that foundation
- 46:17before you really start to on ramp.
- 46:20Yeah, I'm glad you reiterated that.
- 46:22It is extremely important to recognize that often our enemy
- 46:26is not throwing too much, it's throwing too little.
- 46:28So then the time you do get exposed to what gets considered
- 46:33extreme pitch counts, you just weren't prepared for.
- 46:36And people should probably have the forethought to recognize
- 46:39that this 14 year old was not capable of throwing 120 pitches.
- 46:45But in theory if that's what we trained for, they should be OK.
- 46:50At least that's what the models would say or they would be
- 46:52better prepared for that experience.
- 46:55Not saying it would be all hunky Dory and perfect, like I don't
- 46:58know if any 14 year old should throw that much.
- 47:01But in theory, if you are exposed to that stress,
- 47:04gradually over time you get more comfortable enduring it.
- 47:07Yeah, yeah, that's that's a huge thing and and something that I'm
- 47:10running into this year, which is new working with high school
- 47:12kids. How would I I would argue high
- 47:14school kids need to be even further in shape than college
- 47:17and pro guys, because if you think they play multi high
- 47:19school kitchens, there are two ways.
- 47:21Yeah, these these high school kids.
- 47:23I mean, maybe it's just Iowa, but there's not a lot of P OS
- 47:26that I'm working with where this guy's AD one commit pitcher.
- 47:30But when he's not, he's playing shortstop.
- 47:32So think about those eighty extra throws you're making an in
- 47:34and out every single day or the extra whatever doing cuts and
- 47:38realize like you are adding on so many more throws than you
- 47:41realize. And actually, I'm not going to
- 47:43say the name, but I had a high school kid wear a sensor at
- 47:45practice one day and he made 290 throws because he he did catch.
- 47:51He did a whole bullpen and then he like took balls at shortstop
- 47:54and then he went to the outfield and did practices or practice in
- 47:57the outfield. And I'm like, I didn't realize
- 48:00it was that much, but I knew they had to be more in shape.
- 48:02But I didn't realize the magnitude of like, what chronic,
- 48:05you know, workload you're gonna have to be built up for to
- 48:07handle not just pitching, but playing in the field and doing
- 48:10it every single day of practice and games.
- 48:12And it's a grind. I didn't really recognize that
- 48:15with high schoolers until I get into it now.
- 48:17And I had to change kind of the way I program an on ramp guys to
- 48:20really get prepared for that so they don't spike when the season
- 48:22starts. Example, and I am going to say
- 48:26the kids name because I'm going to give him credit for looking
- 48:28into this, but Toby Stevens at Ottawa Hills High School, he is
- 48:32taking on a project right now. There's this really cool
- 48:35project. It's the high school that I went
- 48:37to when we were juniors in high school.
- 48:40You do this massive project on now.
- 48:42It's anything you want pretty much and just trying to make a
- 48:45change. It's a communication project,
- 48:49sources, research. It's awesome.
- 48:51It's kind of like the equivalent of doing a college thesis, but
- 48:55he's doing it in high school and he wants to do it on forearm
- 48:59health in baseball players and how we need to make a change as
- 49:02a whole. So he's interviewing us about
- 49:04Flex, Pro Grip. Heck, he'll probably find a way
- 49:07to reach out to you to talk to you about workloads and stuff.
- 49:10But he asked me about pitch counts because Ohio has this
- 49:14major pitch count rule and you can only throw so much in a
- 49:17week. But I guess in Ohio they only do
- 49:20it during the state tournament and during the actual season
- 49:23they really don't care what you do, which is asinine and strange
- 49:27to me like that. That just goes way beyond the
- 49:29purpose of this discussion. But he asked me what I thought
- 49:33about pitch counts. And I was just like, they're
- 49:34stupid. And he was like, why are they
- 49:35stupid? And I, I went through the
- 49:38experiment you just did without pulse or real tracking.
- 49:41I was just like, Toby, how many throws do you think you make in
- 49:45average practice? He's got to know like 100 or so
- 49:48is like, does that sound like a lot?
- 49:50And he was like, yeah, it does. I was like, OK, well, let's
- 49:52actually go through the math here of how many throws you
- 49:55make. He's like, do you think it's
- 49:56less or more? It's like, Toby, It's like
- 49:57triple. He was like, what?
- 50:00Yeah. Like that's nobody realizes how
- 50:03many throws they're making, especially as a normal high
- 50:06school two way player, which if you have any shot of being a
- 50:10college baseball player, I'm going to, again, throw some
- 50:14astronomical percentage out there.
- 50:16But if you're playing college baseball, I'd assume 97% of
- 50:19college baseball players were two way players in high school.
- 50:22Yeah, yeah. Pretty close. 97 is just our go
- 50:25to for yeah. That's fine.
- 50:27I do think though, with with like high school kids, to your
- 50:30point, like I'm not a huge fan of pitch counts either, but I do
- 50:32think it's better than nothing in terms of you can't just you
- 50:35can't just look at pitch counts on the days you pitch.
- 50:37Like in Iowa, you actually have to report the pitch numbers.
- 50:40Like coaches have to sign the whole season, not just the state
- 50:43tournament. But if you can even keep track
- 50:45of the number of throws that you make playing catch, you know
- 50:48roughly how many thread like that is better than nothing, but
- 50:51strictly pitch count on the days you pitch.
- 50:53I agree that that is very little value.
- 50:55But again, if you can't afford pulse and you know it's a
- 50:57substantial investment to do it for a whole team individual,
- 51:00it's a little bit easier. But keeping track or even if
- 51:03it's like a time, hey, I threw for this many minutes today in
- 51:06catch play and then another 20 minutes of ins and out.
- 51:09Whatever it may be, some data is better than nothing.
- 51:12And just guessing and saying well you know, I threw 100
- 51:14pitches today in my start. I'm good.
- 51:16I need 5 days off because that's what the state says and then I'm
- 51:18good to go. Like that's just a recipe for a
- 51:21lot of potential injuries I should say.
- 51:23And just not putting the kids best interest at hand.
- 51:26Yeah, that's spot on. Some data is better than no
- 51:28data. And the more that you can
- 51:30gather, the better decisions you can make.
- 51:33But I think that's great. Thanks for thanks for continuing
- 51:35on that. And yeah, high school is like
- 51:38the Wild West day. These kids make so many throws
- 51:40and nobody really knows what's going on.
- 51:42But I, I'm going to put you on the spot a little bit here.
- 51:46So I apologize that and prep you for this ahead of time.
- 51:49This is one of the things that we are actually spending a lot
- 51:52of time on now with Flex Pro Grip.
- 51:54And it is the idea that if we can measure the important for
- 52:00our musculature and it is in a good place, the acute to chronic
- 52:06workload ratio might not matter quite as much.
- 52:10What I mean with that, I'll give you some time to kind of process
- 52:13everything. So I'll just keep kind of
- 52:14rambling here, but it's not that a good on ramp doesn't matter.
- 52:19We 100% believe that. What we would contest is that
- 52:24you can get away with a little bit more.
- 52:26So rather than sticking to Gabbits research of the like .7
- 52:32to 1.3 range, we might be able to get comfortable pushing into
- 52:37a 1.4 or a 1.5 if we can show that the forearm musculature or
- 52:45going even beyond the elbow if we want to talk about shoulder,
- 52:48if we are strong enough and have enough endurance to handle what
- 52:52that load would be. Yeah.
- 52:54And before you even said that, that's exactly what I would have
- 52:57said is right now, I think most throwing programs are very
- 53:00universal in terms of the ACR. Every, every throwing program
- 53:03I've worked with, people I've talked to use that .7 to 1.3.
- 53:07But if we can prove that there's an individualized way to either
- 53:11expand or even even contract that ACR depending on the the
- 53:15actual forearm structure is, I do think that that would be game
- 53:18changing because we could start on ramps earlier for guys that
- 53:22you can't push as much or we could not necessarily start on
- 53:25ramps later, but we could have more development time for these
- 53:27guys that can push a little bit further.
- 53:28And so that would be that would be game changing.
- 53:30As someone who does a lot of programming, because obviously
- 53:33for guys that can't push it as much, I need to program a lot
- 53:36further back. They're not going to have as
- 53:37much time to get development in and on their push days not be
- 53:41able to do as much because they're ACR would spike.
- 53:44And then for these guys that could handle more like that
- 53:46would be a dream. I could get plenty more
- 53:50development. I could get more like mound
- 53:53build up time. That would be awesome.
- 53:54But it really, I think there's a lot more room to individualize
- 53:57the throwing program approach more than that currently is.
- 54:00Now you think there's a lot of individuality that you can do
- 54:02between days and you know, your actual workloads and the type of
- 54:06workout you're doing. But that ACR, like they said, I
- 54:09was going to say it if you didn't, if that can be expanded
- 54:12based on how an athlete is built or certain tests or you know,
- 54:16shoulder form, whatever it may be, I think that would be game
- 54:19changing for a lot of teams, individuals, people that
- 54:22program, because it opens up a lot of possibilities for further
- 54:26development. And that the more you can make
- 54:27that development window, obviously the better that's
- 54:29going to be for for the athletes long term future.
- 54:32You handled being put on the spot with that pretty well, I
- 54:35like to think. I mean, we think it's an idea
- 54:37that just can potentially make the industry better.
- 54:39So we're going to continue to try to dig on it.
- 54:42But yes, to date we we at least can figure out arm speeds with
- 54:47something like pulse or we can do MPH and we can keep guys in
- 54:52ranges. But if both you and I went out
- 54:55and went on a throwing program, now I'm, I want to say like if
- 54:59we both took our 90 mph, but maybe, maybe we'll be a little
- 55:03more realistic. And we went out there and said
- 55:06we both took our 76 mph, our each of our 76.
- 55:11Just because we throw the same speed and maybe we even have the
- 55:14same top velocity that we could potentially reach, it doesn't
- 55:19mean that we're enduring the same stresses in that give and
- 55:23throw. You are significantly taller
- 55:25than I am. Your levers are longer.
- 55:27Those things can impact the stresses that we experience.
- 55:31Yeah, yeah. And that's something that is
- 55:33pretty scary when you first start working with Pulse.
- 55:35You can see the the torque number that they give you.
- 55:37And a lot of guys think I have a higher torque.
- 55:39That's a bad thing. It's it's not a bad thing
- 55:41necessarily of itself. You know it just is.
- 55:43It's just, yeah, you're you've always thrown with a higher
- 55:46torque most likely. And so yeah, it's used to that.
- 55:49It's not just a new stress, but it doesn't discount the fact
- 55:52that yes, you're not going to be, you know, treated
- 55:54necessarily the same way as someone that's smaller, has
- 55:57shorter leverages, who probably has a lower torque level and
- 56:01they could have a higher workload per throw, if you want
- 56:03to call it that. If you want to get really into
- 56:04the weeds of the actual workload calculation that takes your
- 56:08height and your weight and the actual torque value, you can
- 56:11have a guy that has a 60 torque and a guy that has an 80 torque.
- 56:14And the guy that has a 60 torque could actually have a higher
- 56:16workload per throw because they're just a shorter, less
- 56:19built guy. But but again, I've had to
- 56:21reiterate that a lot, especially younger guys, like just because
- 56:23you're a higher torque guy doesn't mean you're going to get
- 56:25hurt. Doesn't mean anything's going to
- 56:27happen like that, but it's the way you're built and the way
- 56:29that you actually going back to kind of the foundation and on
- 56:32ramp. You just have to be ready to
- 56:33handle any sort of stresses. And even going back to the very
- 56:36beginning of this, this podcast with the throwing off speed or
- 56:39anything like that, any of the stresses that you are going to
- 56:42come into contact with in the season, you need to start
- 56:45developing those and getting used to those as soon as
- 56:47possible. Which again, we've talked about
- 56:49that plenty, but that's that's part of the individuality and
- 56:51part that I love about coaching. You talk about lower torque guy
- 56:55versus a higher torque guy. Are you ever making any
- 57:00interventions in your own coaching to try to lower a
- 57:04torque number, or do you just accept that that's a part of who
- 57:08an individual is and use that as you're mapping out a complete
- 57:13throwing schedule? I can't say I put too much stock
- 57:16into actually looking at the specific, you know, torques and
- 57:19trying to change it. The one thing I will say is if
- 57:22there is a substantial change in the torque, and I know that a
- 57:26guy is normally on a game throws like A-65 torque and then all of
- 57:30a sudden he drops to maybe A50 or he spikes up to an 80 for
- 57:34some reason. Like I'll check to make sure the
- 57:36sensor is still in worn the right way.
- 57:38But if it's consistent like that, then we can start to look
- 57:41at some things. Has anything changed
- 57:42substantially? And hopefully if it's that
- 57:44drastic, it's noticeable by the naked eye that you don't
- 57:46necessarily need a pulse to see it.
- 57:48But in terms of like, I would never try to change a guy's
- 57:51torque just because it's a certain value if it hasn't
- 57:54changed. I'm glad you answered that way
- 57:57because I didn't want to get in this disagreement zone where
- 58:00we're then fighting back and forth.
- 58:03I, I know I said it a little bit earlier.
- 58:05To me, it's one of those things that just is, and you understand
- 58:09that that's more or less a characteristic of the
- 58:11individual. I don't want to make mechanical
- 58:13changes or movement changes because that's likely either a
- 58:18movement that helps the guy be successful.
- 58:20Why would we want to take him out of it?
- 58:21Or, as we get one into a little bit, anthropometrics that just
- 58:26can't be changed anyways. Yeah, Yep.
- 58:29I agree with everything that that goes into and I said it
- 58:32freaks out some people when you first start, but the main part
- 58:35is that the person that is programming has to understand
- 58:38it. For a lot of people, if they
- 58:40don't know what they're doing and they just buy a pulse, they
- 58:42might think high torque, Yikes. I got to, I got to lower that
- 58:45and that's going to lead to a lot of changes in the delivery
- 58:47that might not be very good. And so just having that
- 58:50understanding, having that basic knowledge, which you guys have
- 58:52done a great job covering on the podcast, but just making sure
- 58:55you understand that whoever's programming for you, it's going
- 58:57to be a huge help. Well, I think baseball wise that
- 59:02kind of concludes my line of questioning.
- 59:05I do, if you don't mind, want to get into the human interest side
- 59:09of things and just hear real quick about the engagement.
- 59:13I wouldn't. I would love to get into that.
- 59:14Yes, all right, so shout out your fiance.
- 59:17Awesome. You don't need to name drop her
- 59:19unless you really want to. I'm happy to hear who she is.
- 59:22I don't know if she's cool with all your new found fame with you
- 59:24being. No, no, she's cool with that.
- 59:26Shout out. Carrie Starbeck.
- 59:27Carrie Starbeck. Soon to be Carrie Marciazani, I
- 59:29should say. Doctor.
- 59:30Doctor, that's. Right, yeah.
- 59:34If you if you want to tell a quick story, I'd love to hear
- 59:36it. Yeah, so we have We were dating
- 59:40for 8 plus years. We started dating junior year of
- 59:44high school. We we went to Cedar Falls High
- 59:45School together. I asked her to be my junior prom
- 59:48date and we started dating shortly after.
- 59:51She is the first girlfriend I ever had and is the only
- 59:54girlfriend you know I we're going to have.
- 59:56But she is in Baltimore right now.
- 59:58She's doing a residency in. Pharmacy at the Johns Hopkins
- 1:00:02Hospital. So we are kind of doing a
- 1:00:04distance thing which we've done for four plus years of our
- 1:00:07relationship. But in terms of like the
- 1:00:09engagement, there's a little trail in Cedar Falls where we
- 1:00:13used to walk a lot and we were in high school and even when we
- 1:00:15were in college and would come back, there's a little area that
- 1:00:18has like a gazebo type thing. And so one time when she was
- 1:00:21back from Baltimore, we went on this walk and I had a whole crew
- 1:00:24that we would pass this gazebo and it would be completely
- 1:00:27empty. Just in case you had any
- 1:00:28suspicions. Because when you're long
- 1:00:29distance and you see each other two or three times a year and
- 1:00:32you know that there's probably some sort of proposal coming,
- 1:00:34it's tough to hide it. But I had a great crew incur
- 1:00:37including her sisters, my brother, his, his wife, and then
- 1:00:40our photographer, But walked past the first time, there's
- 1:00:43nothing there. And then we kind of turned
- 1:00:44around and they'd set everything up and kind of had it all
- 1:00:48looking good. Credit her sisters for most of
- 1:00:50that. And then she said yes.
- 1:00:52And we had a whole party with her family.
- 1:00:55And that was also a surprise. And it was more of just like
- 1:00:57thanking a lot of people for keeping it a secret because like
- 1:01:00I said, when you're dating someone for 8 plus years, it's
- 1:01:02really hard to keep a secret from their family and especially
- 1:01:06her. So she's been awesome about it.
- 1:01:08And, and we've been on wedding planning mode the last few
- 1:01:11months with a wedding coming up in July.
- 1:01:13But she is, she's amazing. She is, I think light years
- 1:01:16better than me, smarter than me. She's saving lives.
- 1:01:19I always tell her I just teach people how to throw a ball
- 1:01:21harder and she's legitimately saving lives.
- 1:01:23So she's awesome and, and hopefully she ends up with a,
- 1:01:26with a great career working wherever, wherever that may be.
- 1:01:29Hopefully we find that out soon. But I just, I'm super proud of
- 1:01:32her. Well, thanks for sharing that
- 1:01:34and thank you, Doctor Kerry. Thanks for being a good sport,
- 1:01:37even though you didn't have much of A choice and hearing hearing
- 1:01:40that story on the podcast. Shell of it.
- 1:01:43Good. Yeah, in one little side note
- 1:01:45there, you talk about she's saving lives and you're just
- 1:01:48trying to make people throw harder.
- 1:01:50Back at ABCA, I was talking to one of the guys from Driveline
- 1:01:54and we were talking about some bio mechanics stuff.
- 1:01:56And he was saying how a few years ago one of the bio
- 1:01:59mechanics from Driveline went to a national bio mechanics
- 1:02:03convention and everybody was saying what they do.
- 1:02:06And like six straight people spoke and they're we are here to
- 1:02:10help people regain the ability to walk after being paralyzed or
- 1:02:15stroke victims and all these unbelievable life altering
- 1:02:19things. And then this guy was like,
- 1:02:23yeah, we're trying to understand spine tilt and how that impacts
- 1:02:26bats beaten baseball. Just like, yeah, we we always
- 1:02:30have to remember every once in a while that our little niche game
- 1:02:34is just a fun little activity on the side.
- 1:02:36Yeah, but but again, like, and then, and she always tells me
- 1:02:39this like there's, there's been plenty of people that I've
- 1:02:41helped revive a career, play a small part in helping them get
- 1:02:44to where they want to, which that's that's why I do it.
- 1:02:47But at the same time, I'm never going to be able to to say like,
- 1:02:50Oh yeah, you know, what I'm doing is equally as valuable as
- 1:02:53as what she's doing every day with dealing with everything
- 1:02:56that she does. I'm very proud.
- 1:02:58And I'm just not going to be able to touch kind of the impact
- 1:03:01that she's happening in terms of a lot of people.
- 1:03:03Well, once again, Austin, thank you so much for coming on.
- 1:03:06I really appreciate you digging into what you do, your passion
- 1:03:10and spelling a little bit about the private life carrying the
- 1:03:14engagement. Yeah, yeah, it was a ton of fun
- 1:03:17having you on. I'm sure I'll be bugging you
- 1:03:19asking some more questions here and there.
- 1:03:21And maybe if we need our own stuff plus model at some point,
- 1:03:25we'll we'll just bring you on for that.
- 1:03:27But of course, thanks again and to everyone out there, thanks
- 1:03:30for laying back with us.