Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 146 - 10/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 146 - 10/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 146 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Tuesday, our work week rolls on and today is a very
0:39
special day because the Boston Celtics raised Banner 18.
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If you're a Celts fan like me, should be a great game here to
0:46
watch tonight and I got a play on the Celtics game tonight.
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Excited to share with you guys as we begin the NBA season.
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So doubleheader here tonight we got the Celtics in the Knicks
0:57
early Lakers and T Wolves and of course tomorrow a full slate and
1:00
then we're off and running with the NBA season.
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So I wanted to mention real quick rhythm, who does a great
1:05
job of powering this pod and does a fantastic job shooting
1:08
out their AI best bet models and predictions for game bets and
1:12
player props. They have all of the NBA game
1:15
bets and props and predictions live in the app.
1:18
So if you've been waiting for a time to give rhythm a shot, if
1:20
you're an NBA better, maybe it's your favorite sport to bet on.
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I know college basketball, of course, one of my favorite
1:26
sports. That's not far off rhythm.
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We'll have that as well. But if you've been looking to
1:30
leverage data combined with a data-driven approach monitoring
1:33
the market, well, rhythms got you locked and loaded here for
1:36
the NBA season. So all the NBA predictions are
1:38
live in rhythm. Another opportunity here for you
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guys to download that app so we can track and follow along and
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hopefully cash some tickets using some AI backed models and
1:47
predictions. Now, aside from opening night in
1:49
the NBA, I got a four pack of sweats for you guys.
1:52
One bet on the Knicks and the Celtics also have two bets in
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college football. We have a couple very, very,
1:58
very, very, very unpopular dogs, so I'm going to see if anyone
2:02
wants to ride with me and see if some of these dogs can bark.
2:04
And then one, play in the NHL as we started our NHL season O and
2:08
two, we've since won five straight.
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Starting to get a little hot in the NHL, melting some ice.
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See if we can get another one here tonight.
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I'm going to look toward a home team with a good steam move
2:18
across the market. Now before we dive into our
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sweatshirt tonight, looking back toward last night, 1 and 2 -, 0
2:24
point O 9 units had a great hit with the Baker Mayfield passing
2:28
prop over 254 1/2. He was well into the three
2:31
hundreds. All those garbage yards really
2:33
racked up quite a bit late. But it was kind of frustrating
2:36
because we got Baker and I'm saying to myself, OK, all we
2:38
need is either Tampa to cover or the over in the Chargers game or
2:42
two and one winning night couldn't get either.
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One frustrating part with Tampa was the fact that they had an
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opportunity late to backdoor cover.
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As gross of a game as it was, they start off 10 nothing.
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Mike Evans gets hurt, Godwin gets hurt.
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They're down big and they storm back.
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They recover an onside kick. There was a chance down 10, they
3:01
come back and score and cover the number.
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Obviously they couldn't do it. So that was a gave me a little
3:06
hope only to be, you know, ripped apart and dance.
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My heart was ripped apart and danced to the beat.
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Layer late, but I knew we were kind of in a bit of trouble
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because that line did tick up toward Baltimore late.
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Like that was basically plus 3 1/2 Tampa all morning.
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It got up to four and then after the pod it went up to 4 1/2.
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So once that started moving further toward Baltimore, I said
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that's not a good sign for us. And again, public Rd. favorite
3:29
popular team came through. Public got another winner there
3:32
with Baltimore, unfortunately for us.
3:35
And then the Arizona Chargers over 44.
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That was, you know, kind of frustrating because a lot of
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books actually closed if you guys noticed 44 1/2 or even 45.
3:44
So he beat the closing line on that one.
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They didn't score any points in the first quarter.
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Then opportunity for a long touchdown to score early and the
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guy fumble it out of the, you know, out the sideline.
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He was basically close to a goal line score.
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So came up short in that one. And of course, the one
4:00
contrarian dog that I don't bet Arizona then up winning out,
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right. So one and two night -1 point O
4:06
9 units. But not many breaks went our
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way. Let's see if we can turn it
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around and have a good winning night for tonight.
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So without further ado, I wanna talk some NBA because the NBA of
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course returns tonight Opening night, and I'm gonna focus on a
4:19
matchup that's near and dear to my heart.
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Celtics, Knicks. As you may or may not know, I am
4:24
a Celtics fan. I will admit the line is moving
4:26
toward Boston here for tonight. They open -5 they even bet up to
4:30
-6 so we've seen that steam move in their favor.
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If you look at the bet splits right now, Celtics are getting
4:36
59% bets, 64% money. So again, if you tell me you
4:40
like Boston tonight, I'm not going to argue with you.
4:42
But I want to look at Boston in a couple different ways.
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One, I am holding that over 58 1/2 win total.
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So now is your kind of last chance.
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You do have adjusted win totals available throughout the year,
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but last chance to get that in preflop, you know, before the
4:55
season begins. And that's a play for me on team
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that is bringing back a ton of basically every all their guys
5:02
who've now been paid Missoula going into year three.
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If you're going to play win total over it, to me, it's about
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stability and growth. And that's what the Celtics have
5:11
as well as a very deep bench. And you also have Tatum and
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Brown, who again, have something to play for.
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They won their title. But I mentioned this before.
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The motivation for me is, you know, Brown wasn't on the
5:22
Olympic team. Tatum got benched on the Olympic
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team. Tatum hasn't won MVP yet.
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And you also saw, I believe Jack and, and Kenny and the, the, I
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don't even, I don't even know if it's TNT anymore.
5:33
All the meteorites I can't get, I can't get them straight
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anymore. But I know that the crew with
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Shaq and everybody, I believe they're in Boston tonight and
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they unveiled their list of their top ten NBA players and
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they had Jaylen brown #9 and Tatum #10.
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So I'm surprised that Tatum wasn't higher and I'm surprised
5:49
that they had Brown ranked over Tatum.
5:51
So if you want more motivation, again, I think you can still
5:54
find it out. But I am on the Celtics over 58
5:57
1/2 win total this year. They won 64 games last year.
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However, I'm not going to play them laying the number here.
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Again, if you want to play my, I do not argue with you
6:06
whatsoever. The line didn't move -5 to -6 in
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favor of Boston. Not crazy popular here as again,
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they're only getting 59% of spread bets, but low bets,
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higher dollars. But I'm going to focus on the
6:16
total and I'm going to go over to 22 1/2.
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Now cool things to like about this over.
6:22
First off, it has moved upwards. This total open at most shops
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around 221 and a half, 222 and it actually got as high as 2/24
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at some shops. That was, I want to say what was
6:36
it maybe a couple days ago. So it ticked up all the way to
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224, even saw one book 224 1/2. So if you go off the open to the
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current, you know it's gone 221 and a half, 222 up to 222 1/2.
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There are some 223 1/2's out there.
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So this is a another test case example of shopping for the best
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line, finding the right number because right now ESPN Benton
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Caesar's are at 222 1/2, whereas you have, I believe who was it?
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A lot of these other books, FanDuel DraftKings, they're
7:05
closer to 223 1/2. So again, shop for the best
7:08
line, get the best number, but all based off the open has gone
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up. So we've ticked up quite a bit.
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It got us again as high as 224 1/2 even maybe even saw 225 come
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back down a bit. But still off the opener, the
7:21
total has risen. You'll get the bets in dollars.
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It's kind of not a huge public play to the over.
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Maybe these, you know, the public's thinking, hey, 2 good
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defensive teams. I know the Knicks are a little
7:31
bit slower in terms of pace, but right now you're getting on 60%
7:34
of bets in dollars on the over. So it's not overwhelming.
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So it tells me that the fact you don't have like 7080% of bets
7:41
going over, it's not as public of a play.
7:44
But also I'm going to bank on offenses showing up tonight
7:47
because if you looked at last year and again, Knicks have made
7:50
some additions, Mikhail Bridges, Bridges, Karl Anthony Towns,
7:54
they still have Brunson. And again, they're probably the
7:56
biggest threat to the Celtics. You saw today that both Embiid
7:59
and Paul George are are hurt. So again, maybe the the Philly,
8:04
the Philadelphia 76ers and the Knicks would be the two biggest
8:07
competitors. I think it's going to be the
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Knicks who or if anyone's going to give the Celtics a run for
8:11
their money in the postseason, I think it's going to be New York.
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But anyway, Boston was number one in offensive efficiency last
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year. The Knicks were #11 so Boston
8:20
returns everybody. Knicks you would think improved
8:23
based on who they brought in over the offseason.
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So both top 11 offenses. Celtics also play a three-point
8:29
shooting game. They shoot arguably the most
8:32
threes of any team, which again, if you can knock them down is
8:34
great for an over. But then also, if you look at
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last year, I was digging into the Celtics in terms of kind of
8:40
their how they perform over unders when it's arguably a low
8:44
total. Like to me, you know, 222 and a
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half 223. You know, that's a low total.
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You know, back in the day when I first started betting on sports,
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you know, around 2010 like two 23222.
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That was a high total. You would have totals like 200.
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You know, 198. You know, two O 5 was a high
9:01
total. Not anymore.
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In today's NBA, we're routinely going to see totals 23240 this
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year, as we have in recent years.
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But when the Celtics total any game with the Celtics, any game
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in which the Celtics have a total of 224 or less, last year
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they went 15 and 10 to the over 60%.
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And look at the last two years when the total was 227 or less.
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So even if it's a little bit higher, last couple years
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Celtics game 227 or less, they went 48 and 31 to the over 61%
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with a 16% ROI. So what does that mean?
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To me? It means that hey, when you have
9:38
a really good offensive club like Boston and you have a lower
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end total, it becomes a bit of a value play just to go over
9:44
because this is not a 232 or 242.
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And again, off the opener, the line has risen.
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And then little cherry on top here, Rhythm models, which
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again, I mentioned that rhythm now is locked and loaded live,
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ready to go with their NBA player props and predictions.
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I have a Josh Rhythm model that says this total should be a
10:03
little bit closer to 2:24. So if we're getting over 222
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1/2, Rhythms got a 224. The rhythm community model, 74%
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of models are also going over. Gives me a little more
10:15
confidence here to play this over.
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So when they raise the banner, banner 18 should be a great
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night in Boston. But then once it gets going, I'm
10:23
going to root for points here. Also, it is a relatively short
10:25
spread, You know, open -5 now -6 maybe you get a competitive
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game, maybe back and forth, who knows, Maybe overtime, which
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overtime is always the best friend of an over, the enemy of
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an under. But either way, guys, I'm going
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to look for some points. Just got a lot of indicators
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here with some over liability. So I'm going over 2/22 and 1/2.
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And again, that's available right now at ESPN BET or
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Caesars. Now over to some college
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football. I kind of was hinting at it
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earlier, but we have two very similar games tonight.
10:55
We have Sam Houston visiting FIU and UTEP visiting Louisiana Tech
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and both favorites are insanely popular.
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Currently. You're getting Sam Houston State
11:06
80% of bets, LA Tech getting 82% of the bets.
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You know where I want to go here.
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I want to go contrarian and look at some dogs here for tonight.
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So let's start off with the early match up here. 7:30 PM
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Eastern Time. This one is going to be on
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ESPNU, Sam Houston State and FIU.
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So going into this one, we have Sam Houston State with A5 and
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two record. They just saw their four-game
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winning streak, however, come to an end.
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They lost to Western Kentucky 3114 as a 1 1/2 point home
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favorite member. That was our sharp move on WWKY
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that came up huge for us as the Hilltoppers cash for us last
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week. But on the other hand, FIU two
11:43
and five, they've dropped four of their last five and they just
11:46
came up short against UTEP 30 to 21 lost outright as a 7 point
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Rd. favorite. So what are we seeing across the
11:53
market here? Well, this game opened around
11:55
Sam Houston State minus 6 1/2 on the road.
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I saw some openers that are maybe even a little bit higher
12:00
there. I want to say I saw like a
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somewhere close to like a 7 1/2 or an 8, but 6 1/2 was probably
12:05
your true opener. And everyone is playing Sam
12:07
Houston State. And you know, I don't say that
12:09
lightly. It's 80% of bets going Sam
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Houston State. This is a very popular play
12:15
towards Sam Houston. However, even though 80% of bets
12:18
are going Sam Houston State, we've seen this line fall.
12:21
Sam Houston State open again minus 6 1/2.
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The line is now down to -5 and it was even down to four and a
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half earlier today. So it's pretty much been one
12:30
sided movement. You had a little buyback on Sam
12:32
Houston at -4 1/2 to bring it back up to five.
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But really what's notable is that you open minus 6 1/2.
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Sam Houston, you're getting 80%. Shouldn't they be up to -7 -, 8?
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No, it's actually gone in favor of FIU.
12:45
So it tells me we got some smart money here going FIU 1 angle
12:49
here. Maybe why we're seeing this big
12:51
line move away from Sam Houston is they have starting
12:53
quarterback issues. They're starting QB Hunter
12:56
Watson. He's questionable to play with
12:58
an injury. And if you can't play, the
13:00
backup, Jason Bower is expected to start.
13:03
And again, based on this line move, you know, maybe he isn't
13:06
going to play because, again, you've seen it move toward FIU,
13:09
even though everyone's playing Sam Houston now.
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FIU just a classic contrarian play, only getting 20% of bets
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in a heavily back game. This one will also again be on
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ESPNU, so quasi nationally televised.
13:21
But FIU also dog who can score system match.
13:24
They've averaged 26 points per game this year.
13:27
Keep pace or backdoor cover. Another angle.
13:30
You know, when I was watching that Western Kentucky game when
13:32
they cash for US against Sam Houston last week was that Sam
13:36
Houston is a great story, but they just stepped up in weight
13:39
class. Like, I don't know if this is
13:41
their first or second year. Maybe I think it's their second
13:43
year, but since joining FBS, they were in FCS prior.
13:47
So you're still kind of a smaller school going up in
13:50
weight class and FIU would technically be a conference dog.
13:54
I know there isn't a ton of familiarity because it just went
13:56
up a weight class, but still I kind of want to bank on, you
14:00
know, the recruitment and kind of the, I don't know the
14:03
familiarity with FIU in this weight class versus Sam Houston
14:06
who's rising up a bit. If you do look at the total, I
14:10
did look a little bit toward the over at open around 45 1/2, got
14:15
up to 47, but then you saw some under buyback.
14:18
It's back down to 46 1/2 and it is going to be a little bit
14:21
windy tonight, 11:50 mph and that would be a windy under
14:25
system match. So I initially said, hey, this
14:27
one's going up. Maybe it's an overplay, but the
14:30
over is getting 78% of bets, only 69% of money.
14:33
I don't love that. And again, it got to 47 and now
14:36
it's coming down. So this is going to be a no bet
14:38
for me when it comes to the total.
14:40
But I am going to go contrarian. I'm going to take FIU at home
14:43
again. If you give me a dog getting 20%
14:45
with a line move in their favor, that's a play I got to make.
14:48
So right now you can get FIU at +5.
14:52
I would challenge you guys to hold out and wait for a hook on
14:55
a 5 1/2. Now the four and a half's
14:58
getting back up to five and they are juiced up -5 -, 115 like it
15:02
may get to 5 1/2. Does that mean this quarterback
15:04
is going to play? It's just really difficult
15:06
sometimes in college. It's not like the NFL, whether
15:09
you know, we'll, we'll, we'll Patrick Holmes play tonight or
15:12
not. Like you're going to get that
15:13
info pretty easily. This kid Watson, it's kind of
15:16
harder to find. So I don't know if he is, if
15:18
he's playing or not. But I think if you're just going
15:20
to put yourself in that contrarian position, you know,
15:22
hold out for a hook on a 5 1/2, that's probably going to be your
15:25
best number. So I'm going to hold out for
15:26
five and a half. If not, I'll just go the
15:28
straight up FIU contrarian +5. Next one for you, UTEP and LA
15:34
Tech, another Conference USA match up here for tonight.
15:37
This is your kind of later game, 8:00.
15:39
We had Sam Houston FIU at 7:30. This one is going to be on CBS
15:44
Sports Networks and other quasi, you know, primetime game
15:48
nationally televised. But going to this one, we have
15:51
two kind of pretty bad teams. UTEP is one and six.
15:54
UTEP, however, did just win their first game of the year.
15:57
They beat FIU, ironically enough, 30 to 21.
16:00
Their seven point home dog one outright.
16:02
But La Tech hasn't been great either.
16:04
They're two and four. They've dropped four of their
16:05
last five. They just lost to New Mexico 33
16:10
to 30 in overtime. I lost outrage as a 12 1/2 point
16:13
Rd. favorite. So what have you seen across the
16:15
market here? Will this game open La Tech?
16:18
A7 point home favorite and the public says yeah, UTEP, you're
16:22
coming off a win. But LA Tech, even though they're
16:24
two and four lesser of two evils, LA Tech's the better
16:27
team. Fade the one in six UTEP miners.
16:30
However, despite currently 82% of spread bets going with LA
16:35
Tech, we've seen this line move toward UTEP.
16:38
So 82% of bets on Louisiana Tech they open -7 yet this line is
16:42
now down to 6 1/2. Why is line dropping in favor of
16:45
UTEP if everyone's playing Louisiana Tech tells me we got
16:49
smart money going with the dog. UTEP here.
16:52
They're only getting 18% of bets, but 32% of dollars.
16:57
So nice low bets, higher dollars bet split.
17:00
They're contrarian heavily back game.
17:01
They're also a conference dog built in familiarity, rivalry
17:04
aspect, levels the playing field benefits the team getting points
17:08
and also some correlative betting value.
17:10
You know this total is 49 you're getting UTEP.
17:12
I was I really wanted to get the seven really not any available
17:16
anywhere anymore as we always try to get that key number.
17:19
But you're around a touchdown dog with a game and a total or
17:23
in a game with a total of 49. So 49 again, high in the NFL,
17:27
it's pretty low in college. So with a you know, kind of
17:31
lower end total and a touchdown dog going to be harder for that
17:33
favorite to cover. Now we did see some under money
17:36
show up this total open around 50 1/2.
17:38
It's down to 49. That's notable because 68% of
17:42
bets are going over yet the total fell.
17:44
So I kind of like the fact that the, you know, if you think
17:46
through the correlative bedding, you know, spread versus total,
17:49
the total is falling and the line's moving toward the dog.
17:51
So fewer points. That means the dog's more
17:53
valuable. That's kind of a good sign.
17:55
Historically, if you, if you like a dog, you want the total
17:58
to be falling, not rising. Be at all up here, guys, just as
18:01
we talked, you know, to, to kick off the pod today, 2 very, very
18:05
unpopular dogs. I got to go, I got to go FIU
18:08
plus 5, ideally 5 1/2. You can wait, wait it out and
18:11
find it. And I'm also going to UTEP here.
18:13
I got UTEP at 6 1/2. I'll wait it out, see if we can
18:16
get a seven. Maybe it ticks back up.
18:18
But right now, maybe 6 and half is the best we find because it's
18:21
mostly -110 both sides, but FIU and UTEP.
18:25
Let's get some dogs to bark for us tonight.
18:28
Now over to the NHL. It is a huge slate in the NHL
18:32
tonight. Again, I do not understand how
18:33
you have one game yesterday and then 16 games today.
18:37
Like who makes the schedule for the NHLI?
18:40
Just it just makes no sense as a fan, as a better like break it
18:44
up a little bit. Can you?
18:45
Can you on average give me 5-6 games a night?
18:48
I don't like these extremes anyway.
18:50
Huge slate. And you're probably like, oh,
18:51
Josh, you got a million bets tonight, right?
18:53
No, I only got 1. So the one that I focused on was
18:57
Detroit Red Wings at the New York Islanders.
19:00
This is a 7:45 PM Eastern Time game tonight and I'm going to go
19:04
with the New York Islanders here.
19:07
So I got the Islanders at -165 Now going into it, Detroit is 2
19:12
and 3. They did, however, when their
19:14
last game against Nashville, five to two.
19:16
New York Islanders, 21 and two, they've won two of their last
19:19
three, just beat Montreal in overtime, 4:00 to 3:00.
19:22
So a couple things going on here.
19:23
First thing, when it comes to hockey, I start off by looking
19:27
at line movement as I do in any sport.
19:29
Hockey, of course, is a money line sport.
19:31
So therefore, you know, we're going to look at, you know, is
19:34
there steam on it in either direction?
19:37
Which way is the line moving? Well, pretty clear here.
19:39
It's going toward the Islanders. Islanders open this game at
19:42
around -150 now they're up to -165 some shops even closer to
19:47
-170 I got aisles -165 at BET MGM, but tells me right off the
19:53
bat we got about a 10/15 cent steam move in favor of the New
19:56
York Islanders. Now to start the year, we have
19:59
favorites in general, 55 and 3561%.
20:03
You're just about break even though because you are laying
20:05
minus numbers. But I do have another system
20:07
match that I like here. Both are off a win.
20:09
Take the favorite. Very simple, but it's 11:00 and
20:12
4:00 to start the season. 73 percent, 18% ROI schedule wise
20:18
and it's a benefit toward the Islanders.
20:19
Hopefully they're playing their second straight home game versus
20:23
the Detroit Red Wings are playing their second straight
20:26
Rd. game. So you're on the road for
20:28
Detroit Islanders both. There's no the other thing that
20:31
was annoying to me tonight is like everyone's on the same rest
20:34
first tired, like, you know, we're always looking for
20:36
ideally, like, you know, a sharp move toward a favorite with a
20:39
low bets, higher dollars bet split and you know, they are
20:42
more rested than than their opponent.
20:44
Pretty much everyone telling he's on equal footing.
20:46
So it takes away a little bit of our rest first tired, tired
20:49
angle. But the other thing I like about
20:52
this matchup and I'm going to lean on is the defense.
20:54
And the goal tending looks like a pretty big advantage for the
20:57
Isles Islanders only giving up 2.8 goals per game.
21:01
Detroit is giving up 3.4. And if you look at the goal
21:03
tending matchup tonight, I'm hoping that really benefits New
21:07
York because the Islanders are going with Ilya Sorokin.
21:10
He's off to a great start. One O and one 1.48 goals against
21:14
953 save percentage. And he actually has been off for
21:19
quite a while. He didn't play in the last game.
21:21
Last game he played, it was a one nothing loss in overtime
21:25
where again, he only gave up a goal.
21:27
But he's playing great, high pick, just got a big contract.
21:30
Alex Lyon will be the starter for Detroit, kind of a
21:34
journeyman guy. Now he's had he's been pretty
21:35
decent to start the year 1 and one two point O six goals
21:39
against 938 say percentage. But I'm going to go with kind of
21:42
the, you know, the top pick, you know, great numbers, big
21:45
contract guy over the journeyman guy.
21:47
To me, that's an advantage sarokin over Lyon.
21:49
And again, with that line move schedule spot, better defense,
21:54
couple system matches here. Let's see if we can get our
21:56
streak up to six straight wins. Knock on wood, but I'm going to
22:00
go aisles in this one can be the Islanders at -165 S that about
22:05
does it for episode 146 of the all systems go sports betting
22:10
podcast now starting tomorrow, we should have a lot of NBA.
22:13
If you look at NHL tomorrow, there's only one game World
22:17
Series is a couple days away. Good thing about college
22:20
football. We're pretty much going to get
22:21
two games every day for the rest of the year at least so a lot
22:25
looking toward tomorrow, but for today guys again 4 pack.
22:29
Can we find a way to get three of them?
22:30
That is the goal now looking toward before you, you know,
22:36
finish up the pod. I always want to mention a
22:38
couple things to leave you with first, if you enjoy this
22:41
podcast, if it's helped you to cash some tickets, if you want
22:45
to help me grow the pod, if you want to let me know you
22:46
appreciate, you know, the the breakdowns and the data-driven
22:50
approach. Maybe you've learned a thing or
22:51
two since you started listening to the all systems go pod.
22:54
Could you please do me a solid, do me a favor, make me very
22:57
happy by doing something very easy.
22:59
All you got to do is give this podcast a five star review for
23:03
listening on Spotify or iTunes should be an option there to
23:06
rate or review. Click the five stars.
23:08
It would be a great way to let me know you appreciate the pub.
23:11
Also help us to grow the pod, gain more more follows.
23:14
Click the follow button. That way you'll get it as soon
23:16
as it drops each day. If you want to also recommend it
23:18
to a friend that would be great as well.
23:20
But please hit me up with a 5 star review.
23:22
I would very much appreciate that.
23:24
Secondly, if you enjoy the style of betting these breakdowns,
23:29
hopefully you look forward to the pod each day.
23:31
Maybe you come to the pod with a couple games that you've
23:33
highlighted and you're hoping the overlap.
23:35
Or maybe you didn't have a chance to do any homework today
23:37
and you're leaning on me. Either way #1 thank you for
23:40
listening #2 I appreciate you. But whatever the case may be, if
23:45
you enjoy the breakdowns, you want to learn more about
23:47
data-driven betting. Guess what?
23:48
I wrote a book on data-driven betting.
23:51
All you got to do is go to Amazon.com and type in the
23:53
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Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
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It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
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How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
24:02
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
24:05
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
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a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything guide
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to Sports betting. Next, I mentioned at the outset
24:15
of the pod, but have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial
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of Rhythm or a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel, My two favorite
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sports betting apps on the market.
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They help me win. They're going to help you win.
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I'm pretty confident of that. But Rhythm, of course, now live
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with their NBA game bets and player prop addictions as well
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as all the other major sports. And then Juice Reel great for
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their Robo Jackson best bet picks each day.
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You can tail those if you want. You can also get detailed bets
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and dollar breakdowns for all the different games, which are
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Don't forget to sync your sports books.
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That way you can get a running report card of your action Learn
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more, learn more about yourself as a better really kind of hone
24:56
in on your strengths and weaknesses, but also arbitrage
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bets. Sharp Mush plays great
25:01
opportunities here to shop for the best line for futures and
25:04
just the best price on a game like I easily use juice real to
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find a, you know, 2/22 and 1/2 for the next game over versus
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another book at 223 1/2. Those are two great books that
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are two great as that I want you to take advantage of and you can
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do so just by clicking the custom links that are located in
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the bio descripcion of this podcast.
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You Scroll down where it says, hey, in episode 146, Josh dishes
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out a four pack of sweats across NBA, college football, NHL, OK,
25:32
yadda, yadda, yadda. Scroll down past that.
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You're going to see a link for both for both juice real and
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rhythm. Click those so they know that I
25:39
sent you their way and then you'll be off and running,
25:41
hopefully cashing some tickets along the way.
25:44
So that about does it, guys. Of course, Last two things I
25:46
always leave you with, whether I see you at the Borgata and
25:49
Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
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Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the
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Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, REMGM, Springfield
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and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts around the desert
26:01
where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends
26:03
his number runners, where the lowest use possible is found,
26:06
the South Point or Sweat and Sharpkin train plays, jumping in
26:09
the stadium swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
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Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
26:14
Don't show me the Chargers over or the Bucks +4.
26:17
You can show me a Baker Mayfield over ticket.
26:19
At least we got that one. Let's see if we can get some
26:21
more winners here for tonight. But guess what?
26:23
First one's on me, next one's on you.
26:25
We're going to post about the book.
26:26
So that's some sharp contrarian plays together.
26:29
So that about does everybody. As always, I'd like to leave you
26:32
with this. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
26:34
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
26:36
house. Always be with the smart money,
26:38
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
26:41
Of course not. Hey, beat the closing line there
26:43
with the over in the Chargers game.
26:44
They just couldn't score any points.
26:46
Sometimes that's going to happen.
26:48
But here's the thing. Smart money may not win every
26:50
time, but it is going to win a majority of the time long term,
26:53
which is why we always want to stick to our model against the
26:55
public with the house, with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays,
26:59
get that closing line value If we can do that and also avoid
27:02
avoid parlays, because parlays are a handout to the house in
27:06
the book and they make a killing for the house and they they kill
27:09
the betters. If we can do that, though, and
27:11
stick to our model, but with our head and not our heart from a
27:13
data-driven approach, if we can do that, we're going to be
27:15
successful sports bettors long term.
27:17
So have a fantastic Tuesday. Everyone, welcome back NBA
27:22
Celtics hoisting the banner tonight.
27:24
Can we get an over in that game? That's what I'm hoping for.
27:28
But either either way, guys, enjoy your Tuesday night and
27:30
we'll be back at it tomorrow for a big episode 147 of the All
27:35
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
27:38
Good luck everybody, have a great night.