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Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you
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Speaker 1: three four three nine eight five. Well, it's been a
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Speaker 1: few months, so it's time to go off in all
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Speaker 1: sorts of tangents with my longtime pal Jonathan Martin of Politico.
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Speaker 1: Many of you know him as j mart He is
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Speaker 1: always traveling. He's he's got Politico allowing him to expense
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Speaker 1: barbecue lunches and interviews all over the country these days.
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Speaker 2: This is exactly right.
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Speaker 1: The New York Times said no, Politico said yes, right,
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Speaker 1: Like you know, this has been the dream you've had
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Speaker 1: for a while.
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Speaker 2: Who's going to pay me time to politics? Well, thanks
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Speaker 2: for having me. I'm coming at it from Sacramento. You
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Speaker 2: can't see it, but just over my left shoulder here
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Speaker 2: is the home of the state capitol of California. Here
3:02
Speaker 2: I got up early on the East Coast time and
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Speaker 2: walked around gorgeous capital under construction, forever under construction, always obstruction.
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Speaker 2: But no, the Times didn't have the idea. I give
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Speaker 2: full credit to Jonathan Greenberger and Annie Allen, my colleagues
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Speaker 2: at Politico were coming up with us, great venture, Jeff.
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Speaker 2: They said, if you're going to keep expensing all these
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Speaker 2: meals on Politico you're having with politicians, you got to
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Speaker 2: bring a camera and a boom mic. We're tired of
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Speaker 2: paying for all these meals. Just tape the damn things.
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Speaker 2: You're doing all this travel anyway, So that's what we do.
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Speaker 2: It's called on the road, and we interview politicians over
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Speaker 2: good meals.
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Speaker 1: That's it's good stuff. Look, I am a huge advocate
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Speaker 1: of in person. That's what I've been doing with this
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Speaker 1: newspare show. Like exactly, I refuse to do a remote
3:43
Speaker 1: on it period.
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Speaker 2: Like it's so much more rewarding.
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Speaker 1: It is ninety it's always more rewarding. Everybody's happier, the
3:52
Speaker 1: guest is happier.
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Speaker 2: You know. It's funny about these elected officials.
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Speaker 1: I feel like, on one hand, some of them know, hey,
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Speaker 1: I need to go everywhere. On the other hand, they're
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Speaker 1: still so risk averse. Yes, and you're like, if you're
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Speaker 1: in person, the risk is always much less than you
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Speaker 1: think it is.
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Speaker 2: Yes, a human to.
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Speaker 1: Human conversation is always going to be polite, because that's
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Speaker 1: what humans do. You know, when you're inanimate objects and
4:18
Speaker 1: you're on a zoom or whatever, sure, you know it's going.
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Speaker 2: To get it.
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Speaker 1: Can it's easier to see you as a two dimensional figure, so.
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Speaker 2: Eight, yeah, you know it cursed me. Speaking of good meals,
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Speaker 2: I'm rocking my Central Barbecue shirt here from Memphis, A
4:34
Speaker 2: good plug for the one great Barbecue Joint, Memphis, Chuck.
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Speaker 2: One of my earliest memories of working with you at
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Speaker 2: the Hoighline was the straw Pole. Oh, the one we
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Speaker 2: did in Memphis.
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Speaker 1: Right, the front runner George Allen versus Bill frist Bill
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Speaker 1: he may have stuffed the ballance.
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Speaker 2: By the way there them, Yeah, but it was you know.
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Speaker 1: What we if you remember, the big story was how
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Speaker 1: Romney had quietly organized every DS member that they could
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Speaker 1: find in Tennessee and they showed up to the Strap
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Speaker 1: pol and all of a sudden, it's like, holy yes,
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Speaker 1: how did Mitt Romney do so well? And it was like, oh, right,
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Speaker 1: he's going to be able to organize in ways that folks.
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Speaker 1: And it was sort of a you realize that this
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Speaker 1: was a sleeping giant organizer. It's probably the high water mark.
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Speaker 2: Of the Frisk for President campaign was it was two
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Speaker 2: thousand six Straw pol And. You know, it's funny about
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Speaker 2: that campaign.
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Speaker 1: Body hotel is what I remember is Corker was helping him, yes,
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Speaker 1: and and it was I mean, it's just sort of
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Speaker 1: that whole Tennessee Republican Party is dead.
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Speaker 2: They don't They just don't exist anymore. Mar Haslam Frisk
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Speaker 2: no worker. Yeah, no, it's a different animal. I remember
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Speaker 2: Trent Lott was there too, because he was still on
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Speaker 2: the set. He wasn't a leader anymore, but he was
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Speaker 2: still in the set. Had had his resurrection Chuck, and
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Speaker 2: he said, welcome everybody to Memphis, Mississippi. I love the
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Speaker 2: fact that the Northestzippian's clay Memphis as they're anyways, a
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Speaker 2: fond memory of the years twenty years ago, brother twenty.
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Speaker 1: I know, I know, I know, thanks a lot. I
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Speaker 1: appreciate it anytime to remind of age. Let me start
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Speaker 1: with the conversation you had this.
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Speaker 2: Week with Bodhagic.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, with Pete, because I think Pete has an interesting
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Speaker 1: challenge when he runs for president this time with the
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Speaker 1: Biden baggage and does he understand that it's baggage? And
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Speaker 1: I sort of see Pete as the avatar for the
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Speaker 1: governing wing of the Democratic Party. Right, I've decided to
6:39
Speaker 1: come up with, like, what what do you call this?
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Speaker 1: You have progressives, you have sort of governing, and then
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Speaker 1: you sort of have it on the Republican side too.
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Speaker 1: I used to call him the legislating conservatives, right, But
6:49
Speaker 1: you basically have the governing wing of the party and
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Speaker 1: the activist wing. And I think now that's sort of
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Speaker 1: the simplest way to describe the divides in each stuff, right,
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Speaker 1: that there's an activist wing and there's a governing way.
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Speaker 1: And the governing wing's biggest challenge and why they keep losing,
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Speaker 1: I think is they're just not acknowledging what the voters
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Speaker 1: are feeling. They keep wanting to tell the voters that
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Speaker 1: they're not that they shouldn't be feeling the way they are,
7:14
Speaker 1: because hey, didn't you know we did this, and don't
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Speaker 1: you know we did that? And you know you're not
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Speaker 1: feeling that we are, And that what Donald Trump did
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Speaker 1: so well in sixteen and what I think, frankly, what
7:25
Speaker 1: an abdul lsi ed does well, and what Francesca Hang
7:29
Speaker 1: is doing and these socialists are doing, they're going they're
7:31
Speaker 1: just simply agreeing with the voters, Like you know, the
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Speaker 1: simplest way to get.
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Speaker 2: Traction is to agree with your audience. Twenty ten.
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Speaker 1: It's terrible for media consumption, right, because it leads to sycophantry.
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Speaker 2: But it does.
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Speaker 1: You know, in politics, you better agree with the people
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Speaker 1: you're trying to get to vote for you.
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Speaker 2: That's why those Tea Party cannas one in twenty ten. Oh,
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Speaker 2: you and the GOP grass roots are outraged about Obama
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Speaker 2: and you're mad at your part. Okay, Like so am
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Speaker 2: I it.
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Speaker 1: Worked pretty well me too, right now. They don't know
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Speaker 1: how to govern after that, but it's a way to
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Speaker 1: get in. And I think that you know, as the
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Speaker 1: governing wing or the boothagagees of the world, and everybody
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Speaker 1: tries to figure out what the hell does this socialist
8:18
Speaker 1: stuff mean? I think there's a simple explanation. Those candidates
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Speaker 1: are agreeing with the voters that the Democrats suck too, right,
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Speaker 1: And I don't know how a Pete Boodhajjt navigates that
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Speaker 1: issue because he was part of it.
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Speaker 2: He was part of it. His personality is one of
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Speaker 2: an individual who doesn't want to destroy institutions. He wants
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Speaker 2: to work within them to make them better. Now he
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Speaker 2: has some pretty.
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Speaker 1: Renovator, not a bulldozer, you know what I mean? Like,
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Speaker 1: do you think there are bulldozers and they're renovators? And
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Speaker 1: he clearly wants to be a renovator.
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Speaker 2: Of course. And also he's he's a man of institutions, right,
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Speaker 2: he's he's an archetype of the American story, Midwestern and
9:00
Speaker 2: are smart, precocious, always impresses older people, finds his way
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Speaker 2: to the Ivy leagues, gets a Rhodes scholarship, joins the military,
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Speaker 2: gets in the public life. Like we know that story
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Speaker 2: in America, and that's just not someone who's burning down
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Speaker 2: the house. He's trying to tinker and improve the house.
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Speaker 2: Now what he would say is, yeah, but I got
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Speaker 2: some pretty pretty expansive ideas for this renovation. But it's
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Speaker 2: still a renovation, you know, it's not a demolition. Right.
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Speaker 1: So it is interesting how like a guy all of
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Speaker 1: a sudden, now Pede is for expanding the Supreme Court
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Speaker 1: and some of these things, and you're just like, I
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Speaker 1: don't think you're going to win over progressives by offering
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Speaker 1: up things that are not possible. Well, I think that
9:44
Speaker 1: you know this is what I you know, to continue
9:47
Speaker 1: to sort of agree to things that aren't plausible only
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Speaker 1: is going to lead to problems down the road.
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Speaker 2: And the left is never going to think of him
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Speaker 2: anything but as McKinsey Harvard Rhodes scholar, and that's like,
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Speaker 2: you can't undo that. You mentioned that Romney illustration earlier.
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Speaker 2: Like Romney could call himself severely conservative, but he was
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Speaker 2: never going to be of the right. And Pete's never
10:11
Speaker 2: going to be embraced by the left. They're never going
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Speaker 2: to trust him. They're always going to be suspicious of
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Speaker 2: him because of his establishment credentials. And you know, Chuck,
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Speaker 2: I was thinking about this when I interviewed Pete and afterward,
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Speaker 2: because I asked him a question and it was like
10:26
Speaker 2: the most I thought humane moment of the interview. I said,
10:30
Speaker 2: were you born too late? And he said, born too late?
10:32
Speaker 2: If I was born a couple of years earlier, I
10:34
Speaker 2: couldn't even been elected in Dana. I'm a gay man.
10:38
Speaker 2: And I said, you would have had to have lived
10:40
Speaker 2: in the closet if you were born earlier, and that
10:43
Speaker 2: would have been your fate in politics. He said, yeah,
10:45
Speaker 2: and that would have been unbearable. And it occurred to
10:48
Speaker 2: me that Pete is not just the sort of traditional
10:51
Speaker 2: Fitzgerald like American archetype of the midwesterner who comes east
10:54
Speaker 2: and finds success. He's also a Washington archetype, Chuck. You know,
10:59
Speaker 2: this from working in journalism. There's a long tradition of
11:02
Speaker 2: gay folks in both parties who always played prominent behind
11:06
Speaker 2: the scenes roles for presidents, members of Congress. Thankfully they
11:10
Speaker 2: don't have to live in the clauset anymore that they
11:12
Speaker 2: can come out now, but there was always a kind
11:14
Speaker 2: of advisory capacity in Washington. There's a great book by
11:18
Speaker 2: James Kirchik, The History of Day Washington, and Pete's kind
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Speaker 2: of of that mold. Now what's different now is that
11:23
Speaker 2: you can live your life, thank God, openly and publicly.
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Speaker 2: What's not different, Chuck, is you still got to have
11:29
Speaker 2: a capacity to run for office of that personal touch
11:34
Speaker 2: and that sort of Clinton gift for charm and connection.
11:38
Speaker 2: And I'm just not sure Pete's ever going to have that,
11:40
Speaker 2: which is a long way of saying I do wonder
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Speaker 2: if his future is in advisory roles as an appointee
11:47
Speaker 2: rather than elected official in politics.
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Speaker 1: He's footagee chief of staff for Wes Moore State one day.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, but can't you see that, Chuck, that he's chief
11:59
Speaker 2: of a state after secretary of state.
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Speaker 1: There's a there's a roma manual quality of him, and
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Speaker 1: I say it's a compliment. Right, Rom's trying to break
12:09
Speaker 1: out of the super Staffer said, you know.
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Speaker 2: It's so funny.
12:14
Speaker 1: He's been elected to multiple things, and yet I kind
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Speaker 1: of sometimes want to compare him to the Jim Bakers
12:21
Speaker 1: or the Leanne Panettaz of the super staffers. And yes,
12:24
Speaker 1: you know he does. You know, he knows a little
12:26
Speaker 1: something about politics too, right like, and that was always something.
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Speaker 2: But I interviewed m for my show speaking of plugging
12:31
Speaker 2: my show and check, thank you for your your generous
12:34
Speaker 2: sure enough play, Rob. Jim James Baker was exactly the
12:38
Speaker 2: person I told Rob, I said, I said, you know,
12:41
Speaker 2: isn't this James Baker trying to run for president in
12:43
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety six, which he almost did, by the way.
12:47
Speaker 2: And you know Rom didn't love the comparison. But the
12:51
Speaker 2: ultimate insider, right, the ultimate connected made man. It just
12:55
Speaker 2: the Baker was a Republican in rams you know them obviously,
13:00
Speaker 2: you know it's it is.
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Speaker 1: I do think this presidential race is going to start fast,
13:08
Speaker 1: meaning like.
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Speaker 2: The already has.
13:10
Speaker 1: The number of people who will actively begin fundraising is
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Speaker 1: probably more than five before the end of this calendar year,
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Speaker 1: don't you agree?
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Speaker 2: Yeah?
13:22
Speaker 1: And I wonder if this means we will have I mean,
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Speaker 1: it will take the traditional route of the early front
13:30
Speaker 1: runners wear themselves out right a Lah Clinton Giuliani six
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Speaker 1: and what happened to them by eight? Or are we
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Speaker 1: going to have a situation a LA sixteen? So I
13:46
Speaker 1: was thinking about, let me throw a scenario at you.
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Speaker 1: Sure in June of twenty fifteen, when Trump announced, I
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Speaker 1: think we all thought, all right, we'll all cover this
13:59
Speaker 1: for a week or two.
14:01
Speaker 2: They'll be the g whiz. He'll kind of get old.
14:05
Speaker 2: It will get old.
14:07
Speaker 1: And then within two months the entire campaign was about
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Speaker 1: how are you responding to Trump? And what did Trump
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Speaker 1: say today? Why do I have a feeling that's the
14:16
Speaker 1: AOC candidacy and that if she I I have a
14:21
Speaker 1: scenario on my head where if she announces for president,
14:24
Speaker 1: it is such a giant oxygen suck that I don't
14:29
Speaker 1: know if there's room for anybody else. That it will
14:32
Speaker 1: I'm not saying there won't be room for anybody else,
14:34
Speaker 1: but it'll feel like you're either AOC or you're contrasting yourself.
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Speaker 1: She's no just like Trump. It ultimately was Trump and
14:45
Speaker 1: everybody else. And I mean, I just look at the
14:48
Speaker 1: little I mean the small you know, she just talks
14:52
Speaker 1: about freezing her eggs, and it's giant, right news and conversation,
14:57
Speaker 1: and you're just like, boy, if she actually does this
15:01
Speaker 1: every little second. I mean, look, I think, oh wait,
15:05
Speaker 1: it's a pretty good example. When Obama got in, it
15:07
Speaker 1: became all about two people, and you had some incredibly
15:12
Speaker 1: well resumed candidates who just went nowhere, Bill Richards, Chris Dodd,
15:18
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, John Edwards. You know a little bit of
15:21
Speaker 1: movement there for Edwards, but not a lot. Yeah, you know,
15:26
Speaker 1: And I was sort of envisioning that today and I'm like, boy,
15:30
Speaker 1: she could be such an oxygen side that all of
15:34
Speaker 1: a sudden. I'm not saying she's inevitable to be the nominee,
15:38
Speaker 1: but it becomes the entire thing becomes a referendum on whether.
15:42
Speaker 2: She should be the nomen I know, there's a lot
15:46
Speaker 2: to that. I would add that. I think also, like Trump,
15:50
Speaker 2: there's this question of will she or will she? You know, Trump,
15:53
Speaker 2: this was a decades long question. Chuck Byan, you and
15:55
Speaker 2: I live this. He would always tease this and never
15:57
Speaker 2: do it. I think what was jarring about Trump, folks
16:00
Speaker 2: who covered it for years was is he actually doing it?
16:03
Speaker 2: Is he really really doing it this time around? I
16:05
Speaker 2: think there was that question, and so I think we're
16:07
Speaker 2: waiting on that for her. Is she going to do
16:09
Speaker 2: it all? And she does? Yeah, I think it will
16:11
Speaker 2: have a profound impact on the race, I chuck, I
16:16
Speaker 2: would set the stage a little earlier. I would say,
16:19
Speaker 2: I think so much will be shaped by what happens
16:21
Speaker 2: in November. And you know, the results if.
16:26
Speaker 1: You Democrats coming up short scrambles a lot of things
16:30
Speaker 1: for the progressives, right, Yeah, the Democrats don't win the
16:33
Speaker 1: Senate and only get in ten House seats, there is
16:36
Speaker 1: going to be this oh but for the left, yes,
16:41
Speaker 1: chattering chatter, And then it raises the question of.
16:44
Speaker 2: Does the party go with its head or its heart
16:46
Speaker 2: in twenty eight right? And I think a lot of
16:49
Speaker 2: that will hang up on a handful of races this
16:52
Speaker 2: fall in Michigan being perhaps the most obvious one, but
16:54
Speaker 2: there's definitely others too that I think are going to
16:57
Speaker 2: shape the kind of moment that will They will sort
17:00
Speaker 2: of upset the mood music, if you will, for twenty
17:03
Speaker 2: twenty seven.
17:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a I agree with you on that, that
17:08
Speaker 1: that's sort of what is the result. Right, how what
17:12
Speaker 1: is and by the way, that might even shape how
17:16
Speaker 1: many more candidates decide to jump in on the Republican
17:18
Speaker 1: side of things, right, A clean sweep, A and I vacillate.
17:22
Speaker 1: I don't know where your head is at these days,
17:26
Speaker 1: but it is if I just look at the numbers
17:30
Speaker 1: from sixty thousand feet, I think this is gonna be
17:32
Speaker 1: a wipeout. I think this is gonna be five to
17:34
Speaker 1: seven Senate seats. I think it's twenty to thirty House seats.
17:38
Speaker 1: The problem you run into is when you start looking
17:40
Speaker 1: at it race by race, and you know, the atmospherics,
17:44
Speaker 1: Holy cow, I meant, you know, and it's not getting better.
17:48
Speaker 2: It keeps getting worse.
17:49
Speaker 1: And what he's doing with Iran and not like literally
17:53
Speaker 1: Trump is the anti minis touched right everything, it seems
17:56
Speaker 1: to get worse and all of this. And yet the
18:00
Speaker 1: entire summer has been this, you know, internal about the
18:04
Speaker 1: internal feud between the left and the governing wing of
18:07
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, and voters have been reminded, oh, this
18:12
Speaker 1: is what I didn't like about that brand. Now, I
18:15
Speaker 1: still think midterms don't ever rarely are referendums on the
18:19
Speaker 1: Als Party. Yeah, and I certainly you know it is,
18:24
Speaker 1: and you know the more likely outcome is Democrats overperform
18:28
Speaker 1: the expectations and the left thinks this is some sort
18:31
Speaker 1: of mandate.
18:33
Speaker 2: Right. I think we get caught up in some of
18:40
Speaker 2: these primaries we didn't know six the rom versus Howard Dean,
18:45
Speaker 2: the Democratic tensions obviously in twenty ten primaries establishment versus
18:50
Speaker 2: Tea Party, and that tension does matter. But it also
18:54
Speaker 2: is a reminder that a lot of that tension flows
18:58
Speaker 2: from the power of an insurgency that comes in these
19:02
Speaker 2: really favorable cycles for the party out of power. And
19:06
Speaker 2: the reason they're happening at all is because the voters
19:10
Speaker 2: in the in that party are pissed at their party
19:13
Speaker 2: for losing the previous election. Right, But it doesn't mean
19:16
Speaker 2: that in the fall they're gonna they're they're not gonna
19:19
Speaker 2: show up in droves and obviously vote against the party
19:23
Speaker 2: in power. I'm always reminded, Chuck of this. The Democratic
19:28
Speaker 2: brand is terrible. The Republican brand is terrible after they lose. Well, yeah,
19:32
Speaker 2: and you know whose brand is also is terrible? Like
19:35
Speaker 2: the home team in sports when they're getting their asses
19:39
Speaker 2: kicked and the fans are calling into sports talk radio
19:41
Speaker 2: because they're mad at their own team, right, So yeah,
19:45
Speaker 2: like this stuff matters. The divide in the Democratic Party
19:49
Speaker 2: has huge consequences I think for governing and for their politics.
19:54
Speaker 2: But ultimately you have a president in the thirties with
19:57
Speaker 2: intractable Middle East war and gas crisis that I have
20:02
Speaker 2: spiked again because of that war, and I just to
20:05
Speaker 2: borrow from Haley Barber, like, you know, you got to
20:08
Speaker 2: keep the main thing the main thing, and when you're
20:10
Speaker 2: doing political analysis, like that's the main thing, right.
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22:03
Speaker 1: that's what I keep coming back to You're just like, boy,
22:05
Speaker 1: this this these atmospherics. I mean, Meg is gonna you
22:08
Speaker 1: can see the combination of all of it, right, Mega, sitting.
22:12
Speaker 2: Home in Texas. You and I think, well, it's Texas.
22:15
Speaker 2: So like Paxton still has still has an advantage. But like,
22:18
Speaker 2: what's the scenario where things get better for Paxton?
22:20
Speaker 1: You know, well that's the thing. What in the next
22:24
Speaker 1: three months gets better for Republicans? Right, I can tell
22:28
Speaker 1: you it gets better for Democrats. No more primaries, right,
22:32
Speaker 1: I mean you know, I mean just not having a
22:34
Speaker 1: primary where where you're adding fuel to the fire about
22:39
Speaker 1: the left versus you know, the governing whatever you want
22:41
Speaker 1: to you know, the the intra party feuds. Right, once
22:44
Speaker 1: the primaries end, you know, then it's about it's it's
22:49
Speaker 1: really just a referendum on Trump.
22:51
Speaker 2: You know, our question is Billy Blubber. You know, good
22:53
Speaker 2: gets better and bad gets worse. And I think that's
22:57
Speaker 2: going to be the case with President Trump. I will say, fairness, Chuck,
23:00
Speaker 2: I think there was a window there when when they
23:03
Speaker 2: got the MoU with iron, there were two or three
23:06
Speaker 2: weeks where gas prices were yeah, really, then it looked
23:09
Speaker 2: like he could make this a blip. That's right, gas
23:12
Speaker 2: prices were coming down. He found a way out of
23:15
Speaker 2: the Middle East. I think once the Iranians decided to
23:19
Speaker 2: keep having a vote in this, which they do by
23:23
Speaker 2: controlling the Straits and by lobbing drones at American assets
23:26
Speaker 2: across the Middle East, that was it.
23:28
Speaker 1: And you know what we failed to underappreciate. It was
23:30
Speaker 1: a failure of underappreciation by Jimmy Carter in nineteen eighty
23:34
Speaker 1: and it's being underappreciated now by the West wing, by
23:37
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, which is the Iranians are aware of our
23:40
Speaker 1: political calendar too. Of course, the idea that the Iranians
23:43
Speaker 1: aren't thinking about our political calendar as they decide how
23:48
Speaker 1: to exert pressure, when to negotiate, when not to negotiate.
23:54
Speaker 1: I mean, they decided they were going to humiliate Carter
23:56
Speaker 1: at the very end, and it looks like they want
23:58
Speaker 1: to humiliate Trump. You know, they want to put Trump
24:01
Speaker 1: in as bad of a political position as they can
24:04
Speaker 1: get him.
24:05
Speaker 2: In by November. And Trump handed them the weapon.
24:08
Speaker 1: Right, They didn't have this kind of influence over his
24:12
Speaker 1: political situation until.
24:15
Speaker 2: He started a war without a without an endgame, and
24:18
Speaker 2: that he thought he could he could threaten them and
24:21
Speaker 2: that they'd back off, and he gave up on that,
24:23
Speaker 2: and then he decided to do that he could buy
24:25
Speaker 2: him off. That didn't work.
24:27
Speaker 1: He did try to buy off idea too, and that,
24:29
Speaker 1: you know, and then I got to go.
24:31
Speaker 2: To what does which is like declare victory and he
24:34
Speaker 2: signs the mo ou in verse I quite literally, and
24:37
Speaker 2: I said, well, sure this is the end and we
24:39
Speaker 2: can go to like season two of the Apprentice, Like nope,
24:41
Speaker 2: we're still long season one man. Yep, yep.
24:44
Speaker 1: We'd love to move on too, brother, but you are
24:46
Speaker 1: stuck into this. You created this box which brings me
24:52
Speaker 1: to the Republican side outside of Vans and Rubio and Youngkin.
24:57
Speaker 1: Is there anybody else we should be looking at that
24:59
Speaker 1: doesn't the last name of Trump? Yes, yeah, I mean
25:03
Speaker 1: you buy the John Kennedy stuff. I think John Kennedy
25:06
Speaker 1: buys the John Kennedy stuff. I buy that he's a
25:08
Speaker 1: little older than you realize, Chuck, you know, yeah, yeah,
25:13
Speaker 1: but he'll sniff at this and he gives great quote,
25:16
Speaker 1: and he'll know he's been to Hampshire already.
25:18
Speaker 2: He's going to I He'll have fun and do tons
25:20
Speaker 2: of Fox hits and get some more attention. That book
25:23
Speaker 2: sold like hotcakes. I mean hat tip to my pal
25:26
Speaker 2: Keith or Bond and Javel and that that book really moved,
25:28
Speaker 2: that they did it, which is not easy these days.
25:31
Speaker 2: I think he's having fun, Chuck. I think the biggest
25:34
Speaker 2: question looming over the right in twenty twenty eight is
25:38
Speaker 2: A who carries the Tucker Carlson and TUCKERSM banner? And
25:44
Speaker 2: B does that.
25:46
Speaker 1: Real constituency or is this a manufactured media? Let me look,
25:50
Speaker 1: I don't I don't buy. I think it's got five
25:53
Speaker 1: percent written all over it. Please, okay, but.
25:55
Speaker 2: This is my point, and you you've now you've now
25:58
Speaker 2: created a nice segue for my second point, which is
26:01
Speaker 2: he who carries the banner and B does that banner
26:05
Speaker 2: get hoisted in the primary and or the general and
26:10
Speaker 2: the third party capacity? This is gonna be I Buchanan.
26:14
Speaker 2: And the question is if you can in ninety two
26:16
Speaker 2: challenging George H. W. Bush for the nomination, or is
26:19
Speaker 2: if you can in two thousand, or you can say
26:24
Speaker 2: you know you know you can ninety six as well,
26:25
Speaker 2: I guess challenging Dolph nomination.
26:27
Speaker 1: Well, getting ninety six one, then I'm sure primary people
26:29
Speaker 1: forget that, right or.
26:31
Speaker 2: To your point, is it a much more marginal effect,
26:34
Speaker 2: which is the two thousand You can a model which
26:36
Speaker 2: is straight third party doesn't have a lot of impact,
26:40
Speaker 2: but still matters it off in a close race, right,
26:43
Speaker 2: And we know from Florida he did. Look, somebody is
26:47
Speaker 2: going to do that. I don't know if it's Tucker himself,
26:49
Speaker 2: but somebody is going to run on the kind of
26:52
Speaker 2: far right nationalism, close down the borders. It's immigration conspiracy theories,
26:59
Speaker 2: a lot of talk about well, you know, barely veiled
27:03
Speaker 2: anti semitism that's coming. And Vance knows this. He's consumed
27:10
Speaker 2: by it. He wants to vend it off. And the
27:13
Speaker 2: question is does Vance avoid this in the primary? Does
27:16
Speaker 2: he phase it in a third party? But it's coming.
27:18
Speaker 1: Dance have the same disease that Trump has, which is
27:21
Speaker 1: he can't quit that wing of the party. He doesn't
27:24
Speaker 1: like it. I'm sitting here, why do you care if
27:27
Speaker 1: the if the nut job wing of your party is
27:30
Speaker 1: mad at you, that's an opportunity to win over swing
27:34
Speaker 1: voters that normally I'm glad we bring it up Vans here, So.
27:39
Speaker 2: For them, though the primary, the primaries, everything these guys
27:42
Speaker 2: live in the primary.
27:43
Speaker 1: You know, we've seen Vance as a candidate exactly one time,
27:47
Speaker 1: and he was horrendous. Yes, he had to be bailed out.
27:51
Speaker 1: He was almost got into a fistfight with Bernie Marino,
27:54
Speaker 1: he had to was running out of money, needed Peter
27:59
Speaker 1: Teele to write it checked.
28:00
Speaker 2: Right.
28:00
Speaker 1: They basically begged Trump for the endorsement, to grab him
28:04
Speaker 1: over the finish line because he didn't really succeed in
28:08
Speaker 1: his campaign at all. Right, it was a crowded primary
28:12
Speaker 1: with sort of well somebody had to win it. And
28:16
Speaker 1: so I'm not convinced that Vance has is much of
28:21
Speaker 1: a political athlete because we haven't really seen him do it.
28:24
Speaker 1: Success has not had a good game.
28:27
Speaker 2: And you know, you know, Hells has that fear as
28:30
Speaker 2: Donald Trump himself. Right, Yeah, I mean there's no bigger student,
28:34
Speaker 2: you know, of this stuff. And Trump'll say it out
28:35
Speaker 2: loud and does say it out loud. So yeah, I mean,
28:38
Speaker 2: fantas track record is, you know, Trump and Teal getting
28:42
Speaker 2: them over the hump in Ohio and then relying on
28:44
Speaker 2: McConnell's money in the fall.
28:47
Speaker 1: I mean Rubio actually, you know, when you look at
28:49
Speaker 1: the trajectory of Rubio, his first race was the outsider
28:53
Speaker 1: challenging the establishment, sure, right, Like the irony is that
28:58
Speaker 1: he's seen as the more establishment guy now in Trump's cabinet.
29:01
Speaker 2: Right twenty ten?
29:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, And yet the irony is that his rise
29:06
Speaker 1: was more insurgent and successful.
29:10
Speaker 2: Insurgent, mind you, I.
29:11
Speaker 1: Mean, in fact, the Florida Republican Party today, it's redesigned,
29:15
Speaker 1: began with that Rubio ousting of Crolie crist right like that,
29:20
Speaker 1: you know, he is the original architect, and everybody that's
29:23
Speaker 1: come along since in Florida is sort of a derivative
29:27
Speaker 1: of Rubio's successful sort of takeover of a party.
29:31
Speaker 2: The two signal campaigns of market Rubio's career, yeah, are
29:36
Speaker 2: challenging people in his own party whose turn it was
29:40
Speaker 2: It was Charlie cris turned in twenty ten and Jeff
29:43
Speaker 2: Bush's turn in twenty sixteen, is JD Vance's turn in
29:45
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight. I'm not saying Rubio's going to challenge him,
29:48
Speaker 2: but if Trump nudges him and sort of like pushes
29:51
Speaker 2: Vans aside, there's a precedent in which, you know, Rubio
29:55
Speaker 2: doesn't mind challenging folks who's turning.
29:57
Speaker 1: This right, No, I and like I said, if you
30:00
Speaker 1: just evaluate it like evaluate it like you're evaluating two
30:05
Speaker 1: perspective quarterbacks exactly right, and you just have team occasionally
30:09
Speaker 1: do right.
30:10
Speaker 2: Like well, if you'l just look at the tape.
30:12
Speaker 1: Vance is a guy with I don't even know if
30:15
Speaker 1: he's got the arm strength. I don't know if he's
30:17
Speaker 1: mobile in the pocket. I'm not sure he can read
30:20
Speaker 1: a defense. I can tell you about Marco Rubio. He
30:23
Speaker 1: can run different styles of offense. He could do different
30:26
Speaker 1: you know, it is it's not a close call about
30:29
Speaker 1: who's got the chops to do this and who doesn't.
30:34
Speaker 1: But there is something about Rubio that I understand. I
30:37
Speaker 1: get why mag is a little bit allergic to him.
30:40
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, also, it doesn't help that, like the Wall
30:43
Speaker 2: Street Journal is beating up on Van six ways from
30:46
Speaker 2: Sunday and the entire donor class is trying to wish
30:49
Speaker 2: cast Rubyo twenty eight into reality.
30:51
Speaker 1: And that's not a good place to be either. You
30:53
Speaker 1: don't want to be seen aty of the donors, no.
30:56
Speaker 2: Because its it reminds Mago world then, especially Trump and
31:00
Speaker 2: his kids, that this guy is not totally one of you.
31:03
Speaker 2: In fact, the Old Guard sees him as their way back.
31:07
Speaker 2: Right now, Rubio would say, sorry, guys, like that that
31:11
Speaker 2: ship has sailed, like the times have changed and on
31:13
Speaker 2: with this new jam here. But obviously you can't escape
31:17
Speaker 2: that dynamic. Chuck. I do think, whoever, look, let's take
31:23
Speaker 2: Ribeo out of it. Let's take Ribeo as word. He's
31:25
Speaker 2: not gonna challenge fans. If that's the case, Chuck, I
31:30
Speaker 2: think Vance's biggest challenge in twenty twenty eight on the right,
31:34
Speaker 2: whether it's in the primary, a third party is not
31:37
Speaker 2: a traditional Republican. It's not Glenn youngk and it's not
31:40
Speaker 2: Ted Cruz, it's not somebody from the Party of your
31:43
Speaker 2: I think it's that Tucker model, whether it's Candace Owens,
31:47
Speaker 2: Tucker himself, Megan Kelly. I don't know if the vehicle is.
31:50
Speaker 2: I just think like that's gonna be maybe only a nuisance,
31:56
Speaker 2: but it's gonna be what is the animating energy on
31:59
Speaker 2: the right party in twenty twenty.
32:01
Speaker 1: Eight, And why don't we think that that's not going
32:03
Speaker 1: to happen on the left?
32:07
Speaker 2: Well, I think they're potentially stronger on the left in
32:10
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight. I mean, I think I think an
32:14
Speaker 2: AOC candidacy, consolidating a lot of Bernie votes.
32:17
Speaker 1: I mean, that's my point, is that AOC's got enough.
32:19
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm saying is there isn't a you know,
32:22
Speaker 1: you have this. The right is consumed with media coverage
32:26
Speaker 1: in a way that the left is not. I think
32:28
Speaker 1: there's always been a little bit of this, and the
32:30
Speaker 1: right is consumed with the media. What's being said matter
32:34
Speaker 1: more than what's being done. Yeah, I do think the
32:37
Speaker 1: left cares a little bit more about what's being done
32:38
Speaker 1: than what's being said. Though increasingly you got sort of
32:42
Speaker 1: these these interesting left wing posers here, and some are
32:45
Speaker 1: less interesting.
32:47
Speaker 2: But it's AOC.
32:49
Speaker 1: It's not Hassan Piker or somebody like that is my point.
32:54
Speaker 2: No exactly, which is why I think they're ceiling is higher.
32:57
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I think a Tucker or a Canvas
32:59
Speaker 2: owned has a ceiling in the Republican Party. I'm not
33:04
Speaker 2: sure what that ceiling is for an Aosay. I mean
33:08
Speaker 2: I think it's significantly higher. Oh you it is.
33:12
Speaker 1: But we learned a lot. I mean, you know this
33:14
Speaker 1: and this goes back to I mean the Michigan primary
33:19
Speaker 1: and how much closer it was than anybody in Abduel
33:22
Speaker 1: Sayed's orbit thought it was going to be, which, by
33:25
Speaker 1: the way, tells me. You know, one thing the progressive
33:27
Speaker 1: left needs is better pollsters. They have some of the
33:31
Speaker 1: worst polsters, and the numbers that the that these far
33:36
Speaker 1: left polling firms put out is always a bunch of garbage.
33:40
Speaker 1: And I don't know whether it's intentional, right, it's just
33:42
Speaker 1: trying to feed a narrative. And maybe that's what you
33:45
Speaker 1: know that makes it harder to weed out these bad polls.
33:48
Speaker 1: But I think they do not fully appreciate the electorates
33:52
Speaker 1: that exist sometimes and that they wish cast electorates a
33:57
Speaker 1: little bit, because I don't know what else explains why
33:59
Speaker 1: so many of these and it's a very you know,
34:02
Speaker 1: it's usually one of three or four firms that pop
34:05
Speaker 1: those things out.
34:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean this goes to the heart of
34:13
Speaker 2: the polling challenge we have now look even Wisconsin, Marquetz
34:16
Speaker 2: the gold stand in Wisconsin, but poland primaries and heart
34:18
Speaker 2: of the polling general elections, you know. So it's just difficult, right.
34:23
Speaker 1: Especially in a place like Michigan where there's no party
34:25
Speaker 1: registration and you can have such a fluid back and
34:29
Speaker 1: forth of electorates.
34:31
Speaker 2: But Chuck, how much of the Democratic primary in twenty
34:34
Speaker 2: twenty eight is going to be A voters under forty
34:38
Speaker 2: and B voters with college degrees or postgrad degrees. Like,
34:42
Speaker 2: that's a significant part of the Democratic primary today. Maybe
34:45
Speaker 2: it doesn't get you the nomination, but I think it
34:48
Speaker 2: makes you a real form. Well, this is where I
34:51
Speaker 2: look at it.
34:52
Speaker 1: I mean, to me, the story that didn't get enough
34:54
Speaker 1: attention with the primary calendar was, boy did the establishment
34:59
Speaker 1: do what it did everything it can to create a
35:02
Speaker 1: calendar to stop AOC and Bernie. That's the way I
35:05
Speaker 1: look at this calendar. This calendar looks like and a
35:07
Speaker 1: calendar that is designed specifically to and I'll be more
35:13
Speaker 1: generous here to make it clear that if a progressive
35:16
Speaker 1: is the nominee, they really had to work hard for it.
35:18
Speaker 2: Yeah.
35:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean starting with South Carolina, ending with Virginia.
35:29
Speaker 1: That feels like exactly the way Terry mcculluff and Ram
35:32
Speaker 1: Emmanuel would want it.
35:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, except for if South Carolina is fractured between a
35:38
Speaker 2: lot of the mainstream lane right sure. I mean the
35:44
Speaker 2: black vote and talk to Lina is about half the
35:46
Speaker 2: primary elector. It was just a shit under a half
35:48
Speaker 2: and twenty twenty, I assume it'll be probably a little
35:51
Speaker 2: bit less than forty eight percent, maybe forty seven twenty
35:56
Speaker 2: twenty eight, because of the just the huge influx of
35:59
Speaker 2: white retires down there. That said, if that's consolidated, that
36:05
Speaker 2: is considerable. And I was led to help Biden in
36:08
Speaker 2: twenty What if that's fractured? Chuck? What if that? No?
36:12
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, look, that's how you know.
36:16
Speaker 1: That's that's how you know if you if you tell me,
36:20
Speaker 1: you know that, That's how I would have sold it.
36:22
Speaker 1: If I'm if I've got to sell this to the
36:24
Speaker 1: progressive wing of the party, Are you guys screwing the
36:27
Speaker 1: progressives here? No?
36:27
Speaker 2: No, no, no no.
36:28
Speaker 1: We're putting the first South Carolina. There'll be more candidates
36:32
Speaker 1: in the race, and twenty percent might be a winning number,
36:34
Speaker 1: and so maybe for the first time a progressive couldt
36:36
Speaker 1: win a primary. So it's certainly how I would sell it,
36:39
Speaker 1: but I don't think that's.
36:40
Speaker 2: How it's going to play out. To be friends, the
36:43
Speaker 2: day that the DNC came out with their rules, I
36:46
Speaker 2: wrote this South Carolina. Effectively, I decided to become Iowa.
36:51
Speaker 2: They traded decisive nominating power to be the first vetter.
36:56
Speaker 2: That means more attention to more money, but you have
36:58
Speaker 2: ultimately less influence in decide who the nominee is.
37:02
Speaker 1: It's a real trade off, but you do get to
37:04
Speaker 1: shape the conversation better, Like you're not going to have
37:06
Speaker 1: a progressive conversation in South Carolina that you would have
37:09
Speaker 1: if you started either in ioware names right?
37:12
Speaker 2: Right? That's true, But Chuck, like, let's let's play this out.
37:19
Speaker 2: Let's say you have you know, Andy Basheer or Gavin Newsome,
37:23
Speaker 2: Wes Moore and or Rafael Warnot, Kamala Harris Chritzker. You
37:29
Speaker 2: know AOC runs aggressively there. Let's say she gets you
37:38
Speaker 2: know nineteen.
37:40
Speaker 1: You're saying, basically, I think I agree, she clears the
37:44
Speaker 1: progressive lane, right, Oh.
37:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean's not running with this Murphy do if
37:51
Speaker 2: you know, if there's no what does Jamie Pritzker do?
37:54
Speaker 2: I think he tries to be more of a hybrid,
37:56
Speaker 2: but I think it would create real challenges for the
37:59
Speaker 2: Van Highs and Murphys who sort of see the opportunity
38:02
Speaker 2: to be kind.
38:03
Speaker 1: I put Pritzker in that column. I think Pritzker, I've
38:05
Speaker 1: looked at Pritzker. I think he's a bit underrated. If
38:08
Speaker 1: AOC doesn't run.
38:12
Speaker 2: General, I think he's underrated general.
38:14
Speaker 1: He could be the if there's no AOC, I could
38:18
Speaker 1: see him stealing Rocana's lunch money with the progressives.
38:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he I think progressives want to like him.
38:25
Speaker 2: But you know where does osof in? This? Does Osov
38:29
Speaker 2: get in? Then? If he does, what is his coalition?
38:31
Speaker 2: I'll convince you that he gets in. Huh? How convinced
38:35
Speaker 2: to you that he's looking? I think it's an open question.
38:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I look at his rise in running for office.
38:44
Speaker 1: He strikes me as somebody that would be self aware
38:46
Speaker 1: to know you only get one moment once.
38:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this could be that the people chuck and
38:52
Speaker 2: Democratic politics who bring up his name to me is
38:55
Speaker 2: I hear it a lot too. It's voluntarily. Democrats have
38:58
Speaker 2: a type. They always have, Okay. And he makes his
39:01
Speaker 2: insider and outsider credentials, young, articulate, good looking, tomorrow shining
39:06
Speaker 2: new car smell.
39:08
Speaker 1: Every single time, Carter Clinton, Obama, all three of us.
39:12
Speaker 1: Biden is the Biden is the exception that sort of
39:15
Speaker 1: proves this, that proves this right. Democratic candor Democratic presidents
39:21
Speaker 1: go back to Kennedy. The last four winning first time
39:25
Speaker 1: Democratic presidents that not named Joe Biden, all were new Tomorrow.
39:31
Speaker 1: Under fifty was Carter under fifty.
39:35
Speaker 2: He was right there. He might have been forty nine.
39:38
Speaker 1: He was right there, pretty close, but they were all
39:41
Speaker 1: younger first time they ran for president, for all of them.
39:45
Speaker 2: And did it.
39:46
Speaker 1: Now. I hear you on asof It's like, you know,
39:50
Speaker 1: if you recall I feel like we even had this
39:53
Speaker 1: conversation a couple years ago. We're like, you know, twenty
39:56
Speaker 1: twenty six could produce the actual nominee, right, and the
39:59
Speaker 1: question was I'll have better, you know better or work
40:02
Speaker 1: loses in eighteen, but it was such a good loss
40:05
Speaker 1: that for a for a hot second he was seen
40:07
Speaker 1: as a top tier candidate for We.
40:08
Speaker 2: Did have this conversation. Yeah, either either Platiner, ass Off
40:14
Speaker 2: or tall Rico. I think we're three man.
40:17
Speaker 1: Look, I'll throw in a new one in there. I'd
40:20
Speaker 1: throw in als Ed. Oh sure, I mean, if AOC
40:25
Speaker 1: doesn't run, he runs, he will not miss a moment.
40:29
Speaker 1: More For I don't think he's as I keep saying,
40:31
Speaker 1: I don't think Abduled is running to be this chairman
40:34
Speaker 1: of the Banking Committee.
40:36
Speaker 2: Correct, no question about his his ris. As the kids say, yeah,
40:40
Speaker 2: I think twenty twenty six will produce at least one
40:43
Speaker 2: candidate for president. That's going to be one of the
40:45
Speaker 2: ones that we just mentioned. I thought better for a
40:47
Speaker 2: while Platiner's now in the picture, but I think, yeah,
40:49
Speaker 2: you speak tonight. Now looks like it's ASoP is going
40:51
Speaker 2: to be that yeah or or as off Yeah. So
40:55
Speaker 2: but Chuck back to South Carolina. Let's say AOC does
40:58
Speaker 2: have that that Bernie Lane effectively to herself, and Prinsker
41:02
Speaker 2: will get some of it. Man, she gets nineteen or
41:04
Speaker 2: twenty one z point five percent, and like that's good
41:08
Speaker 2: enough for a bronze metal or even like a close fourth.
41:11
Speaker 2: I don't know, Man, that's not bad.
41:16
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43:33
Speaker 1: And if she spends the whole time where the expectations are,
43:37
Speaker 1: she gets no supprogress in the black community, and then
43:39
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, she does a little bit better.
43:41
Speaker 2: Than we thought. Yeah yeah, yeah, no, you can you can.
43:44
Speaker 2: You can see that scenario. Your viewers should should should
43:47
Speaker 2: go online and pull up her appearance at a little
43:50
Speaker 2: church called Ebenezer Baptist that you may have heard of,
43:53
Speaker 2: and standing in doctor King's pulpit at the introduction of
43:58
Speaker 2: speaking of Senator Warnock, Raphi Warnock. She held her own
44:02
Speaker 2: there pretty well and she said some scripture. So if
44:05
Speaker 2: you don't think that she can walk into the AMA
44:07
Speaker 2: church in Orangeburg, each will watch that clip. So I
44:10
Speaker 2: think she could do fight expectations in South Carolina and Chuck,
44:13
Speaker 2: as you know, that's the entire ballgame in the first
44:16
Speaker 2: couple of states his expectations. She does that off to
44:19
Speaker 2: the races.
44:20
Speaker 1: And I do think she's got and the only look,
44:23
Speaker 1: the thing that she'll have going for that's an odd
44:25
Speaker 1: negative is that she's going to be one hundred percent
44:28
Speaker 1: name id and she's going to be sort of national
44:31
Speaker 1: front runner from the beginning.
44:33
Speaker 2: So that does come with a set of expectations. It does.
44:36
Speaker 2: It does. And also let's not sleep on the shedn't
44:39
Speaker 2: run it all. She has all her options. She can
44:41
Speaker 2: stay in the house, yep, run for the Shoomer seat.
44:43
Speaker 2: So I thought it was it.
44:45
Speaker 1: Look, I don't think it was an accident that the
44:47
Speaker 1: weekend after abdul l si Ed gets all this buzz
44:49
Speaker 1: on the left is going to be on multiple Sunday
44:53
Speaker 1: shows on the weekend that she just said, Hey, by
44:57
Speaker 1: the way, hello, and I'm going to do a couple
44:59
Speaker 1: of things that everybody, if you just choose to read
45:03
Speaker 1: this as I'm preparing to run in twenty eight hey,
45:06
Speaker 1: I'm not going to stop you.
45:07
Speaker 2: That sure looked like it to me. I don't think
45:09
Speaker 2: that timing was an accident. Jmark. I'm sure it occurred,
45:15
Speaker 2: if not the herd people around her, let's put it
45:18
Speaker 2: that way.
45:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I mean it is something I've thought of,
45:21
Speaker 1: which is, boy, does she have to pick between starting
45:23
Speaker 1: a family and running for president? And she essentially without
45:27
Speaker 1: saying it, is saying I'm not going to put myself
45:29
Speaker 1: in a position to make that choice.
45:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, to have to make that, Chuck, because I'm here
45:35
Speaker 2: in Sacramento and I'm speaking to Nancy Pelosi today. But
45:39
Speaker 2: by the time this areas all have already spoken to her.
45:41
Speaker 2: But you know, Pelosi obviously got involved in elected office
45:46
Speaker 2: after her kids were largely grown. She had been a
45:48
Speaker 2: fundraiser and a state party She are very active in
45:51
Speaker 2: politics in California, but didn't, of course go to d
45:54
Speaker 2: C until eighty seven, and then at that point her
45:57
Speaker 2: kiddos were either out of the house or these teenagers
46:00
Speaker 2: pretty close. Yeah.
46:03
Speaker 1: Well and look, and that's the other thing, which is
46:05
Speaker 1: AOC would trying to be doing something that we hadn't
46:08
Speaker 1: have had over one hundred and fifty years, you know,
46:11
Speaker 1: not have you know, not have kids get elected president
46:14
Speaker 1: without having kids, Right, I don't know if if I
46:18
Speaker 1: don't know if that matters anymore or not, right or
46:22
Speaker 1: let me.
46:22
Speaker 2: Let alone her gender and being single, right.
46:24
Speaker 1: Right, Well that's yeah, but look, I'd looked at that
46:28
Speaker 1: and I'm like, huh, I'm not saying it was a
46:32
Speaker 1: a but it was almost like a reminder to the
46:34
Speaker 1: abdu Alcias of the world hate Remember, remember who's who's
46:39
Speaker 1: in pole position here in the progressive length also not just.
46:42
Speaker 2: That, but she stayed out of them. She stayed out
46:45
Speaker 2: of the main race. It was very careful in that seat,
46:49
Speaker 2: in the House seat around Lansing right in the Democratic
46:53
Speaker 2: primary there she once again declined to take a side
46:59
Speaker 2: of Wisconsin. Doesn't want to get identify with this left
47:02
Speaker 2: Who's Anta Halloween or anti Thanksgiving everything else? Right, So
47:06
Speaker 2: she has a pragmatic side to her and Chuck speaking
47:08
Speaker 2: of Pelosi, just to look at that relationship, right, how
47:11
Speaker 2: that started the way it is now. So she's much
47:13
Speaker 2: more of a practical, pragmatic operator than folks realize.
47:16
Speaker 1: So, you know, the more we keep talking about these
47:18
Speaker 1: presidential candidates, the more I realize that there are all
47:21
Speaker 1: these other Democrats we haven't even mentioned yet. And I'm
47:23
Speaker 1: trying to figure out there's no way they all run
47:26
Speaker 1: and what convinces some of them not to run? Yes,
47:30
Speaker 1: So Scavin Newsom and Kamala Harris. We haven't brought up
47:33
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly. I think Reuben Diego's dreams are dead, but
47:36
Speaker 1: maybe they're not. I don't know yet. But you know,
47:40
Speaker 1: there's a good twenty five people who seem to be
47:46
Speaker 1: at least wanting to look at this race. And I
47:50
Speaker 1: wonder what will keep them from running if they choose
47:53
Speaker 1: not to. Will it be money, Will it be staff?
47:56
Speaker 1: Will it be their own family? Like do we do
48:01
Speaker 1: you think both Gavin and Kamala get in?
48:05
Speaker 2: I mean, what's the downside? I think for Kamala this is.
48:09
Speaker 1: The last draw from the same donor base I need
48:12
Speaker 1: that I don't. I'm skeptically either one of them can
48:14
Speaker 1: be the nominee. But they certainly like Jeb and Rubio,
48:17
Speaker 1: will cannibalize each other.
48:19
Speaker 2: They will. Yeah, I mean there's something to that. Financially,
48:23
Speaker 2: there's but there's so much Democratic money online now and
48:25
Speaker 2: they'll convince themselves they can raise it online. I just
48:28
Speaker 2: think that that culture has changed when it comes to finance.
48:34
Speaker 1: I kind of want they all think they can pull
48:36
Speaker 1: a Howard Dean, which is if I if I the
48:39
Speaker 1: money will be there if I catch fire, right like that,
48:43
Speaker 1: there's that mindset that I don't.
48:45
Speaker 2: Need, you know, right, I don't need twenty seven bundlers
48:50
Speaker 2: in Chicago, Dallas and every major metro because I can
48:54
Speaker 2: just hit it, hit an email or you know, do it,
48:57
Speaker 2: blast tax and raise millions. Right. I just think the
49:00
Speaker 2: money culture has changed. But yeah, I think Democrats trying
49:05
Speaker 2: to figure out how to navigate the Kamala Harris question. Uh,
49:09
Speaker 2: you know there are obviously, as they say in Congress,
49:14
Speaker 2: chuck voting vote voting, voting, no hoping, yes, right, but they're.
49:21
Speaker 1: Albody hoping she chooses not to run, So they don't
49:24
Speaker 1: want to of course.
49:26
Speaker 2: Yeah.
49:27
Speaker 1: Right, the rest of the twenty six map, what are
49:33
Speaker 1: the races that intrigue you that nobody talks about.
49:38
Speaker 2: The farm Bell Kansas, Nebraska, just because I think the
49:45
Speaker 2: price of gas going back up past to such such
49:48
Speaker 2: repercussions and those kinds of states.
49:51
Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with those four you know, they all continue
49:53
Speaker 1: right from South Dakota down to Kansas, right, those four
49:56
Speaker 1: races South Dakota, Iowa, those four center races. If Democrats,
50:02
Speaker 1: I think, if Democrats pick up five or six, which
50:05
Speaker 1: is I think I'm one of those who believes it's
50:07
Speaker 1: either two or six or so. I don't know, Yeah,
50:11
Speaker 1: I don't think it's Uh, we're hanging around about three
50:14
Speaker 1: or four, right, I think it's more likely they get
50:17
Speaker 1: if that. If the six happens, it means two of
50:19
Speaker 1: those four I just talked about in the in the
50:22
Speaker 1: in the center of the country flip and you know
50:26
Speaker 1: there's a ton of ingredients there.
50:28
Speaker 2: Right.
50:29
Speaker 1: The Trump policies have just hammered the AD community. Immigration
50:34
Speaker 1: has been a huge problem to the AD business. Then
50:37
Speaker 1: you throw in the high gas prices, the unpopular war
50:42
Speaker 1: in Iran, and you've got you know, you've got literally
50:46
Speaker 1: two independents in Nebraska and South Dakota, and you have
50:50
Speaker 1: two super moderate Democrats in Turrek and Hamilton. I mean,
50:56
Speaker 1: if it's gonna happen, they've got everything in place to
51:00
Speaker 1: make that happen.
51:00
Speaker 2: Now, how cemented is the red blue map? Is the
51:05
Speaker 2: other question that I have, And Chuck you both of
51:08
Speaker 2: us have lived in the Great Commonwealth of Virginia, and
51:13
Speaker 2: I think about what happened there in six with Jim
51:15
Speaker 2: Webb beating George Allen presaging Obama carrying Virginia. Two years later,
51:21
Speaker 2: it was unthinkable that the Democrat could carry Virginia and
51:24
Speaker 2: a presidential race. But six sort of was the dawn
51:28
Speaker 2: over because they won a federal race.
51:30
Speaker 1: Remember that was all went back to, Yeah, Democrats can
51:33
Speaker 1: win governor's races in Virginia, but can they go back
51:35
Speaker 1: to win a Senate seat again?
51:37
Speaker 2: Right?
51:37
Speaker 1: So I won one since ninety four and then they did.
51:41
Speaker 2: So I raised that to say, how locked in is
51:44
Speaker 2: this red blue map? And if we do see unlikely
51:47
Speaker 2: Democratic success in a place like Iowa or like North
51:51
Speaker 2: Carolina in a federal race where it's been pretty grim
51:54
Speaker 2: recent years, I love that I'm through Kansas twenty eighth.
51:58
Speaker 2: Those dates are are back in pl you know.
52:00
Speaker 1: I And let's not let's not skip Ohio. And let's
52:04
Speaker 1: not I don't. I don't rule out Kansas, I rule
52:07
Speaker 1: out of Nebraska. Kansas has a bunch of ingredients to
52:11
Speaker 1: it that have a little there's a there's a little
52:15
Speaker 1: bit of Virginia. Like you can see, like you know,
52:18
Speaker 1: Johnson that the Johnson County sort of blob only seems
52:23
Speaker 1: to grow, right it's not as it's not like northern Virginia,
52:26
Speaker 1: but it's not small anymore, right like, And so you
52:30
Speaker 1: just sort of see it. You throw in the fact
52:32
Speaker 1: that Topeka and Wichita, ever, you know, any urban corridor
52:35
Speaker 1: becomes less concernable a couple of you know it is
52:40
Speaker 1: it is certain Republicans won't play well in Kansas anymore.
52:47
Speaker 1: And now that's gonna and and and certainly if somehow
52:50
Speaker 1: Democrats win a Senate see breaking that, I do think
52:54
Speaker 1: it would signal something like that.
52:56
Speaker 2: Ohio is another story. I'm not I I can explain.
53:00
Speaker 1: I could see Democrats winning both statewide races and it's
53:03
Speaker 1: still not being in play in twenty eight.
53:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right.
53:07
Speaker 1: And because Sharon Brown is sort of a known quantity,
53:10
Speaker 1: and I think if Amy Actin's governor, it's a rejection
53:13
Speaker 1: of Ramaswamming more than it is an endorsement of her.
53:16
Speaker 2: And at recall at a reset of the state back
53:19
Speaker 2: to being in the classic bellweather which is not anymore
53:22
Speaker 2: to hearry on the owit metaphor. In your scenario, Kanas
53:27
Speaker 2: kind of becomes the Indiana, right, yeah, in which you
53:31
Speaker 2: have a big metro with a lot of college educated
53:34
Speaker 2: voters and just the perfect stoorm in which a Democrat
53:37
Speaker 2: could carry it. I still think it's a stretch, even
53:40
Speaker 2: a great Democratic year in twenty eight for a democratic
53:43
Speaker 2: Kirie Kansas and a federal race. Keep in mind, no
53:46
Speaker 2: senate democrat has won Kansas sends the FDR thirty. Yeah,
53:52
Speaker 2: so no.
53:53
Speaker 1: I look, I think having one of the most famous
53:56
Speaker 1: Methodist pastors in the country is a pretty good way
53:59
Speaker 1: of seeing if you can break that trend.
54:01
Speaker 2: It's a big, it's a it's a great test. But
54:04
Speaker 2: you love Iowa, you know, can can Democrats make Iowa
54:07
Speaker 2: competitive again? It's not Ohio. Their their rural voters are
54:11
Speaker 2: different there. They vote it for Obama twice and like.
54:14
Speaker 1: By the way, the Iowa revolt in rural Iowa is
54:18
Speaker 1: very similar to what we saw in Kansas. On these
54:20
Speaker 1: governors races, and it's all due to the education cuts. Yes,
54:24
Speaker 1: and everybody's you know, Iowan's love their public schools, you know,
54:28
Speaker 1: I know the national rhetoric is public schools are indoctrinating
54:32
Speaker 1: all this stuff. Right, there's this that the right. You know,
54:35
Speaker 1: that's not Iowa. They love their local school They love
54:39
Speaker 1: their public schools. And what she did, you know, you
54:43
Speaker 1: know she bragged at the time that she was borrowing
54:46
Speaker 1: from DeSantis. Yeah, right, it is, you know again, it's
54:51
Speaker 1: what I think is hurt and Abbott. I think this
54:53
Speaker 1: these education cuts totally. I do not think people like it.
54:58
Speaker 1: And the right is saying yes to a constituency that
55:02
Speaker 1: I don't think exists as big as as they think
55:05
Speaker 1: it is.
55:05
Speaker 2: I mean, Chuck, how many governors races have we covered?
55:09
Speaker 2: Have you covered? And which Democrats won on education in
55:12
Speaker 2: some ways?
55:13
Speaker 1: I mean, that's I can't believe it's never you know,
55:17
Speaker 1: somebody brought this up. You know, education doesn't pop in
55:20
Speaker 1: the national issues anymore because I do think voters have
55:22
Speaker 1: realized this is a local and state issue.
55:25
Speaker 2: Well, the ROMs trying to change that by talking about
55:27
Speaker 2: it a lot. He is and I don't think it hurts,
55:30
Speaker 2: you know, it's not certainly not.
55:31
Speaker 1: You know, you do want to talk about issues that
55:35
Speaker 1: people are talking about rather than what you want to
55:37
Speaker 1: talk about.
55:38
Speaker 2: How many democratic governors in the South in the last
55:41
Speaker 2: forty years were elected because of an education lottery.
55:44
Speaker 1: One hundred thousand percent exactly, And no, it's it's I
55:50
Speaker 1: don't know how many poles we have to see in Texas.
55:51
Speaker 1: Do we start believing that Abbot Abbot's not going to
55:54
Speaker 1: probably not going to lose, but.
55:56
Speaker 2: It's going to be a single digit race. He's got
55:58
Speaker 2: to spend a little bit of money he has.
56:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we all thought he had that excess
56:02
Speaker 1: money and that it was going to go uh and
56:05
Speaker 1: and help Paxton and uh.
56:08
Speaker 2: Our friend Dave Carney is gonna get good use out
56:10
Speaker 2: of that that that Pat Austin in the next couple
56:12
Speaker 2: of months. Yeah, exactly.
56:14
Speaker 1: All right, buddy, how are you How are you feeling
56:16
Speaker 1: about about your u v A.
56:19
Speaker 2: Uh?
56:21
Speaker 1: You know, when I see all these ACC previews, it's Miami,
56:25
Speaker 1: it's Louisville, s m U and u v A is
56:29
Speaker 1: u v A contender.
56:31
Speaker 2: They had a little football resurgence here. I'm still more
56:34
Speaker 2: hopeful about basketball than I am football in part because
56:38
Speaker 2: of the the the kids that royan Odom is bringing back.
56:41
Speaker 2: But no, look, I think they're capped out in football
56:46
Speaker 2: because of the nature of football and the nature of
56:48
Speaker 2: UVA admissions. But they'll be competitive in the AC state
56:52
Speaker 2: and they can get to a decent bold. Yeah, there's
56:54
Speaker 2: no question about it. The bear story and our household
56:57
Speaker 2: is can we borrow Lane Kiff and sort of use
57:01
Speaker 2: him as the as the the uh the sort of
57:05
Speaker 2: temporary warrior, you know, mercenary type coach and get a
57:09
Speaker 2: natty out of him before he goes to the NFL
57:11
Speaker 2: is sort of the huge question, right, so we'll see.
57:14
Speaker 1: You know, that's either going to work or spectacularly fail. Right,
57:18
Speaker 1: there's this isn't going to be a lot of ten
57:21
Speaker 1: and two seasons with Len unless you I feel like
57:24
Speaker 1: it's either you know, it's either he runs the table
57:27
Speaker 1: or not.
57:28
Speaker 2: I uh, over three years in Baton Rouge, Yeah.
57:31
Speaker 1: You know, yeah, Well, nobody likes to stay in Baton Rouge,
57:36
Speaker 1: these coaches.
57:37
Speaker 2: Brown was there for a while.
57:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know at Ogeron would have stayed. They
57:41
Speaker 1: just didn't want them.
57:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, exactly. I mean yeah, because he had two
57:47
Speaker 2: a bad years in a round. Now it's it's a
57:51
Speaker 2: hard job to keep. And by the way I saw
57:54
Speaker 2: was Bama, I think that's gonna be hard for the
57:57
Speaker 2: board at that job. Yeah, but look there's a question
58:00
Speaker 2: about it. Either Kiffen delivers a natty or you know,
58:03
Speaker 2: this thing was an experiment went bad and he's he's
58:05
Speaker 2: on the way out. So yeah, it is. It is.
58:10
Speaker 1: I feel like LSU is not going to be satisfied
58:13
Speaker 1: with what they get out of this. And at some point,
58:15
Speaker 1: and I say this, maybe I'm endorsing the crystal ball
58:19
Speaker 1: way too quickly. I am certainly happier that Miami found
58:23
Speaker 1: an alum to be the guy to invest in, because
58:26
Speaker 1: he's more likely to stay. The problem with doing these
58:30
Speaker 1: coaches like Lane is you know the the grass is
58:34
Speaker 1: always greener to Lane, and he is just yeah, sure, yeah,
58:38
Speaker 1: you know, you're it's a rental and you know, I
58:42
Speaker 1: don't ls she's done this before. You rented a coach,
58:47
Speaker 1: You get a title and and then all of a
58:50
Speaker 1: sudden it's not there and there, and the satisfaction goes away.
58:53
Speaker 2: I it is. It is astonishing to me. Three three
58:57
Speaker 2: this century, three this century, and they literally two they
59:03
Speaker 2: drove Yeah, two, they drove out one. You know, say,
59:08
Speaker 2: but I think they did want to keep. But that's
59:10
Speaker 2: all three coaches with three nawties in this century. Hopefully
59:13
Speaker 2: Land will make it four. All right, man, I can't wait.
59:17
Speaker 2: I can't wait. We're still two more weeks to weeks
59:19
Speaker 2: there and we'll get brother.
59:22
Speaker 1: Hey, do some scouting of the newest FBS team. You
59:25
Speaker 1: are in Sacramento, Sacramento State. Do you know what conference
59:30
Speaker 1: they are competing in in FBS this season? Another nickname
59:35
Speaker 1: is the Stingers. Yeah?
59:38
Speaker 2: Are they playing in the Mountain West? Where are they? Oh?
59:40
Speaker 1: No, my friend, they are playing in the in the
59:44
Speaker 1: mac they of course with Kent State, with Miami of Ohio,
59:49
Speaker 1: with Bowling Green, Sacramento State its first year.
59:55
Speaker 2: And the conference game that's a conference game. How do
59:59
Speaker 2: you get from Miami, Ohio to Sackdelle like, like, you know,
1:00:02
Speaker 2: we think it's a direct flight. What does that connection
1:00:05
Speaker 2: look like? Man? I don't know what is it.
1:00:08
Speaker 1: There's no Toledo to Sacramento stop for them either.
1:00:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, do you know where Northern Illinois? Do you know
1:00:14
Speaker 2: what conference Northern Illinois is in? I mean, you're gonna
1:00:17
Speaker 2: tell me, Like the big ten. I wouldn't be surprised.
1:00:19
Speaker 2: But it's the Mountain West. It's the Mountain West.
1:00:22
Speaker 1: So somehow Northern Illinois leaves the MAC for the Mountain West,
1:00:25
Speaker 1: and the MAC in order to replace Northern Illinois decides
1:00:29
Speaker 1: to recruit Sacramento State right ladies and gentlemen.
1:00:33
Speaker 2: That's college football. Its politics look functional. It almost does, Betty.
1:00:40
Speaker 2: Guys take care