Latest / Financial Survival Network / Bitcoin, Gold, and the Risk No One Sees - Steve Diggle #6308

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Bitcoin, Gold, and the Risk No One Sees - Steve Diggle #6308 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You know, saying with it's the same with crypto. Think
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: that because the volatility has gone down and the performance
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: has been so strong. You know, people who said, oh, no,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it's going to be an investable asset class, I think
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: they're just that's just wishful thinking. You know, we've never
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: really had a proper test of crypto. Yeah, I know,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: there have been several instances where it's lost seventy eighty
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: percent of its value on all his bats back, but
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: we've never really been an environment where we've had to test.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: You know, is this thing actually reliable as money?
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie. Let's as financial survival Network where
• 0:31
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• 0:35
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• 0:55
  Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Survival Network.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: Investing getting more and more difficult as debt escalates, as
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: volatility goes up, and so many challenges to keeping your
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: wealth intact. Somebody who's been able to do it through
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: the last global financial crisis. Stephen Diggle is with us
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: now and Steven you closed your fund number of years
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: ago after having weathered and prospered in the last financial crisis.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Now you're opening it up again.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: What led you to that? Well, thanks, Kerry, great to
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: meet you. So yeah, we at at Aartritis ran a
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: a very focused fund between two thousand and two and
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: twenty and ten. It was always long volatility, did a
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: number of arbitrage activities, but it's principal characteristics it was
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: always brought credit in the war, was always long volatility,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and during that period between you know, late two thousand
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: and seven and especially two two thousand and eight, it
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: was a very successful fund. We made our investors over
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: three billion dollars in that period when pretty much doubled
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: our NAV and our AUM, which made us by some margin,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: the most successful edge fund in Asia, which was where
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: we were operating out of in Singapore at the time.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: But you know, with the bailouts that came and and
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: the enormous amount of money printing that the the financial
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the central banks felt obliged to do, you know, volatility
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: went down a surprisedly started going up, and by twenty ten,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: you know, we come to the conclusion that they weren't
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: going to stop, and that the more liquidity there was
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: in the system, the lower the volatility would be, because
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: you know, essentially they're they're two sides of the same
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Cointility only really spikes when liquidity is drained out the
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: system for a variety of reasons, usually a panic withdrawal
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: of you know, or margin equidation or whatever it is.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: So with super abundant liquidity, we decided that this is
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: the style that this fund just wasn't going to work,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: and so we made a decision to shut it down
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: and return investors the Romainian money, which was still over
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: three billion dollars. There's not many people voluntarily have closed
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a multi billion dollar hedge fund down, but we just did.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: We felt it was the best way of preserving our
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: track record, and we didn't think it was going to
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: be a successful strategy for our investors or for us,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: And indeed that that's been the case. So, you know,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: with the exception of maybe a few brief periods, especially
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: around COVID, volatility has remained pretty low in financial markets
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: for a long time. And the SMP in particular, and
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: US markets especially has had you know, spectacular run over
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the last ten years, attracted an increasing amount of global
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: cap from all sorts of places, including Asia. We see
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: you know, an enormous amount of speculative money from Asia
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: at play in the US, especially in the tech space
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: and the crypto space, and really you know, a complete
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: lack of interest in speculating or playing in their own markets.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: You know, there's some of these some of these stock
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: markets that used to be very hot we are back
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: in the Asian tiger days are now stone cold. You know,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the returns on some of these markets has been very poor,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: and the level of liquidity is very poor because an
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: awful lot of that Asian saving base is now at
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: play and sometimes very leathered in the US. So we've
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: seen a gradual change in the market dynamics, and we
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: just feel now, given a confluence of characteristics in the market,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: that the risk reward between the you know, the option
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: seller or the volatility seller the volatility buyer has moved
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: significantly in favor of the of the volatility buyer or
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the auction buyer, and that right now that's not being
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: reflected in prices so after fourteen years of doing other things,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: largely private equity, we've reopened these long volatility funds to investors.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And you know, we think that there are significant risks
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in the marketplace right now that aren't being reflected in
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: risk prices, and that there are now fault lines in
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the market that should give any thoughtful investor pause.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: Okay, so what do you think the cause of these
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: challenges that you see coming?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: What are the oka? In some ways, the market's done
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: really well. I mean, here we are on you know,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the US economy has never a bit bigger, We're still growing.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: We haven't had a recession since briefly during COVID. Unemployment
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: at four point one four point two percent is pretty
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: low ish. You know, we've rained back inflation from that,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: you know, horrific nine point two percent print in the
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: summer of twenty twenty two, you know, two point six
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: two point seventy two point eight. You know, maybe not
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: the official FED target of two of two, but it
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: doesn't feel like they're really wedded to that two target anymore.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So you know, maybe inflational level you can live with ain, know,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and then and then there's the market having had this
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: heart attack in the first three days of April after
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: the tariffs, you know, back at an all time high.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: You know, vole price is pretty low, so you go, well,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: this is a pretty benign environment, isn't it. But behind
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: that there are things that should make us know concerned.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: One is the US. The returns on the sm P
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: of the last ten years are about you know, two
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty percent, incredibly imbversive, but you know, you know,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: profits are only up one to eighty percent, so the
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: multiples expanded, you know, twenty five times. The S and
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: P is definitely not cheap. And in a four four
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: four and a quarter percent interest radi environment, it really
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: leaves the equity risk premium back at pretty much zero.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: And there's only one time in my career that it
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: was back at zero, and that was ninety nine two
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: thousand and after that the S and P halved, So
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: you know, there's a warning sign right there, you know.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: And behind it, all you know is this ticking time bomb,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: which is what it is of the US deficit. Now
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of people talk about it. It doesn't feel
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: like a problem because so far the US has managed
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: to increase that deficit very steadily and very and always,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: you know, pretty much well, with a very brief exception
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: during the Clinton years, it's always been one direction. And
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: we're up to one hundred and twenty five percent of
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: GDP now at a time of peace and prosperity, literally
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: higher than it was in nineteen forty five, and pretty
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: much with no inten shouldn't by either party of bringing
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: that number down at some point that's gonna matter to
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the bond market. Not yet, but you know, you just
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: can't be the reserve currency of the world and to
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: have your bond market being you know, sort of the
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: subsupposedly safe even asset of the world and continue to
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: you know, print money and extend your deficits without expecting
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: at some point there's going to be some consequences. And
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: what those consequences are going to be is difficult to predict.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: But the US is already spending about a trillion dollars
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: a year service in that debt. Any sort of revolt
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: in the bond market is going to rapidly blow out
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the budget and blow out that that that trillion dollar
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: number into any you know, anever bigger number. So that's
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the kind of the background that is just ticking away
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: there and at some point it's go it will. I
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: think it will unleash some very significant unexpected consequences on markets.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: They're unlikely to be good. And you can see that
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: in the dollar. You know this year that it does
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: as it's been widely observed that the dollars have this
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: worst start to a year since nineteen seventy three, at
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: stand ten eleven percent against most currencies. Hard to fathom
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: why given the things that look look they're going pretty
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: pretty well. It's that US stock market and all time high.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I think it's concerns about a this deficit which keeps
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: on going up. And secondly, there is definitely some concern
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: about the way in which the US A, as the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: global Hegemen, is conducting itself on the global stage. You know,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: the administration, this new administration has come in with an
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: explicit agenda that's going to shake up the world order,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: and I think we should do it. Believe them. I
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: think I should believe them.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get I'm not political. I'm a
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I'm a market's guide. I don't have an ax to grind.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I'm either a Democrat nor a Republican. But you know,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I see an administration that's got a great deal of power,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: not a lot of checks going on right now upon
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: what Trump wants to do, and with an explicit intention
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: of changing, you know, shacking things up. And as we
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: saw in three days, you know, in April, when the
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: market fell nineteen percent and the bond market started to
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: go in a little dou lally, and then you know,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: the dollar wasn't behaving well. The capacity of this administration
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to surprise people, not always in a positive way, I think,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: is there. And you know, there's this idea now that
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: you know, coined by by one of these journalists, the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: taco trade as Trump always tied chickens out, and so
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: no matter what he says, you just have to ignore
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: it and just carry on buying. I think that's a
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: really dangerous assumption. These are you know, these are these
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: are people who are quite determined to get what they
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: see as a necessary a deal for America. And I
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: can't blame them for that, but I think anyone who's
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: playing in this marketplace, particularly in a releveraged position, who
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: thinks that it's safe to play out there, you know,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: is being reckless. Because this administration is going to be
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: a catalyst for volatility. If you're a strong believer in
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: what they're doing, you may believe that eventually, you know,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: that's going to be a very positive outcome for the US.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe not for everyone else, but in the short term
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: we should expect the unexpected, and market prices are not
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: doing that right. Credit defaultse WAPs are very benign, you know,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: very low prices, you know, to bet against credit and volatility.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Germany is very cheap. So got some inquiry question.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, uh, what you're feeling is about cryptocurrency, bitcoin in particular.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: A all right, you know, it's we were the first,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: we were the first fund manager in single poor to
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: have a crypto fund, you know, as a as A
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: as A as A, as a guy who's always loved arbitrage,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I loved the fact that you had all this differential
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: price in out there. So we ran a moderately successful,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: very unambitious crypto fund in Singapore during you know, the
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: a while ago. Now we did all right, you know,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: because there was these very wild arbor charge opportunities, but
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I got increasingly uncomfortable about settlement risk that we were
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: taking because you know, people talk about these places as exchanges,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: but it was quite clear that they certainly worked. They
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: were more like they were more like those those curb
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: brokers in the nineteen twenties, I mean a lot of
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: them well, and then FTX obviously proved it a lot.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Even some of the bigger ones were very unsafe places.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So you know, ah, money is whatever people think it is, right.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Money's been weird things in history, right for several hundred years,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you know, comp shells were considered a safe form of money,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and in life arge parts of you know, Africa. You know,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: gold has no value, yet it's been accepted as money
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: for four thousand years. Money is whatever people want it
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: to be, and as long as people believe it's money,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: then yeah. But when people tell me they're investing in crypto,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: you know, I get a little pedantic, and I'm like, no,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: you're not. You may have, you may have bought crypto,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: you may be speculating it or playing it, but you're
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: not investing in it because it has no yield, it
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: has no fundamental value and it has no residual value.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Now you may make money, and of course anyone's bought
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: it has made money, so they're smart. I'm done. But
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: you know, all money, all money is a Ponzi ski right.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, ultimately, you know that that thing in your
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: back pocket that says it's worth a dollar isn't worth
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: a dollar. It's just a piece of linen. You know,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: that shiny that shiny piece of metal you have in
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: your pocket is not worth three thousand, two hundred dollars.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: It's just a shiny piece of bec And it's only
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: worth three thousand hundred dollars because someone's going to give
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: you that for it, you know, saying with It's the
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: same with crypto. I think that because the volatility has
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: gone down or the performance has been so strong. You know,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: people who said, oh no, it's going to be an
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: investable asset class, I think they're just that's just wishful thinking.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: You know, we've never really had a proper test of crypto. Yeah,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: I know, there have been several instances where it's lost
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: seventy eighty percent of its value and all his bats back,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: But we've never really been an environment where we've had
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: to test you know, is this thing actually reliable as money?
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: You know, argue it needs quite a bit of technology
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to make it run. You know, if someone said I'd
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: like to buy your house and I'll give you crypto
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: for it, I'd say I'd rather have dollars.
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: So here's a question for you, though, institutional adoption ETFs. Yeah, basically,
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: the number of coins out there, only seven percent of
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: the total number of coins that have ever been produced
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: actually trade and and more. It's getting gobbled up by
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: by entities.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: That aren't going to sell it unless oh and and
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: so and so in the short Yeah, in the short term.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: You know, that makes a great dynamic for a bit
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: of a squeeze. But scarcity alone carry doesn't guarantee value. Right,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: My toenails are pretty scarce. I've only got ten of them,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: but you know what, they're not worth much. And you
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: know what, I'm ony chain. You might have something there.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: You know that they're they're very limited in supply. There
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: ain't gonna be made any more of them, and they
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: grow pretty slowly. But you know, scarcity alone doesn't guarantee value.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: You need a bunch of other things. And look, I've
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: always been fascinated by the blockchain, but you know, I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: think it's as a solution to things like real estate,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: for example, or or fractional ownership of of hard to
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: verify assets like like fine art or or fine, why
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I think the blockchain could have immense value and impact.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: I think has money. You know, I don't have any
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: problems moving money around the world, whether it's in yen
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: or dollars or or pounds. You know, it settles pretty easily. Yes,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: it's Could it be more efficient, for sure it could.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Does the bank take more than it should? Yeah, for sure?
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: But you know it works okay, So so what you know,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: I don't see. I'm not against crypto in any way,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: but I'm not a believer because I don't see the
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: problem that it's solved. Now. I understand a great you know,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a great number of people have made a great deal
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: of money out of it, and you know, well done then,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: But you know, I don't see. I don't have a
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: use for it, as in, you know, in the business
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: we run. You know, I can't really use it when
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: we when we traded it, we only traded it in
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: an arbitrageable way. In other words, you know, if someone
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: was prepared to painting it, you know, at the time
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: like eight thousand, you know, one hundred bucks for a
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: coin in Korea, and I can sell it for you know,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: eighty two hundred bucks simultaneously in the US. I like that.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I didn't like the settlement risk I was taken, but
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I love the arbitrage. But you know, is you know,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: is it an important or a significant part of my
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: asset base? No? Not because I you know, I'm against it,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: or I think it's worthless or I'm not. You know,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I believe it's a it's a scheme, but it doesn't
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: really solve any of the problems that I that I'm
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: looking to that I'm looking to, you know, solve. And
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: you know, do I see it as a potential cause
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: of volatility? Oh? Boy? Do I? I mean, what's what's
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: the value of it now? Is like thirteen fourteen trillion
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: dollars out there in terms of all cryptos. I mean,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: it's a huge amount of value. Right, that's that's appeared,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: you know, just like a mushroom. Right. And you know,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: if people are really thinking, I've got, you know, I've got,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: if they've really counted that as part of their permanent
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: asset base, I don't know what happens if there was
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: to be a severe challenge to it. The other thing is,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: you know, at some point, and I'm surprised it hasn't
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: happened in more places than China. You know, given its
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: it's potential threat to the monopoly of money that central
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: banks have, that it hasn't experienced more legal challenges, and
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: I think, you know that's that's something that could at
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: some point come back to buy it. But you know, say,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: I haven't really been involved for a long time. We
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: watch it, I think as a potential source of volatility,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: both upside and downside, because as you point out, given
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: the size of the asset, of the of the asset
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: class now and the amount of liquidity in it, its
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: potential to move a lot is huge. Uh, the actual
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: experience volatility has been pretty low, but its potential volatility
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: is enormous. So you know, as a catalyst for volatility,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: say both on the up and downside, I'd be very much.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I'd always want to be long the wings of a
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: bitcoin out there, and that there's a pretty decent option
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: market out there for it. But are we using it?
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: You know, no, we're not evangelists for it. We say
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: we've had a we did have a fun. We closed
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: it for various reasons, personnel being one of them. They
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: want to go off and do other things. I'm sure
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: they've done really well if they they stayed long. We
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: don't run crypto anymore. And you know, Singapore's Singapore where
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: we were running it. They've become a little more, a
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: little less welcoming about it. There's been a few scandals
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: there as ever to be there. We're being a new
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: asset class. And yeah, so you know, I see it
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: as an area where people have been very richly rewarded
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: for having faith, as an area where there's an awful
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: lot of speculation, and I see it as a catalyst
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: for volatility. But we don't use it. But I say
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: it's not because we're against it. We just don't really
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: have a use for it.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: Okay, all right, I'll buy that. So you're bullish on
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: gold and silver there.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: I'd certainly bullish on the volatility in gold and silver,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: you know. I mean it's you know, it's fascinating to
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: me at a time when Nasdaq's at an all time high,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: the SMPS of an all time high, the gold is up,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you know what, twenty five twenty seven percent this year.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I got a very strong suspicion that people chasing this
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: rally in the S and P and NASDAK are not
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the same people chasing this rally in gold. I mean
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: maybe some of the algos, because you know, they're just
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: bet non momentum, but I think they're fundamentally the people
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: who feel that they need more gold are probably not
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the people who think that nasdak's a bargain that you
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: know year up here, I think you so maybe maybe
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: indicative of a big bifurcation in in investor sentiment, and
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: this leads to a potentially very interesting trade. It's a
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: little nerdy, but you know, as an auction's nerd. Indulged
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: me for a second, which is that the correlation between
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: gold and the US stock market is very very low. Indeed,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: in fact, Kate's chaotic. Sometimes it's correlated, sometimes it's negatively correlated,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: very often has no correlation. Both the S and P
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: and gold are showing relatively low option pricing relative to
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: historic volatility, so particularly the US up depending on the
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: period you measure, because if as long as you include
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the April period, you know, volatility is very cheap relative
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: to historic. So if you put those two together, if
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: you're long, let's say you're long out of the money,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: put some calls on the S and P and out
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of the money puts some calls on gold, you get
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: a very interesting payoff because you've bought things that are
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: pretty close to the historic volatility, and anything could could
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: happen that could dislocate those And in a sense, you've
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: got four ways to win and only one way to lose,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: which is that everything kind of stucks around where it is.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: So between the two of them, they represent a very
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: interesting way to be exposed to current markets shocks on
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: both sides. So you know, when the dollars we gold
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: is strong, okay, So that explains part of the part
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: of the problem. And just as you refer to the
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: very limited amount of liquidity in in cryptocurrencies relative to
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the outstanding numbers, so it is with gold, right a
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: tiny amount of gold trades, tiny amount of gold trades
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: relative to the outstanding amount. So it's ability to move,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you know, very rapidly with relatively small changes and appetite,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: you know, leads it to be a place that just
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: being long volatility alone is a great is a very
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: interesting trade, but the fact that from time to time
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: it has a big impact because other things are going
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: on geopolitically, also makes it a great place to play. However,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: one thing to always remember about gold is that, like
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: everything else, you need a marginal buyer. And you know,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: let's not forget that in two thousand and eight, when
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: everything was for their part, even gold went down. Now
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: it baounts back, but you know, gold is the ultimate
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: hedge against the market. Dislocation doesn't always work. It didn't
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: work in two thousand and eight, and if liquidity were
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to dry up for any reason again, it might not
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: work again. It works really well as a store of value,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: It's worked really well as an inflation edge. It's had
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: four thousand years of being accepted as money. I'm not
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm not a gold bug, people, and no
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: gold bug says it's a gold bug. But you know,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: if I had to believe in one thing that was
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: going to hold its value through a dislocation, I'd rather
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: have this, this, this permanent, shiny yellow metal with four
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: thousand years of belief than this new fangled electronically dependent
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: one that's had, you know, fifteen years of belief. All right, Hey,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: so it's been good talking with you, Steve. Where do
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: we find you?
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: How do we connect with you on the web?
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So we we're called Volpez Investment Management, we have
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: a website and you know we're very engaged with investors.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: We're a regulated investment manager in by the most Authority
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: of Singapore or in Singapore, and that's probably the best
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: place to find us.
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: Excellent and the links in the show notes to this
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: interview on Financial Survival Network dot com just ask when
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: you go there, please sign up for your free newsletter.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Steve.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: It's been very enlightening speaking with you. Good hey, Kara
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: on the new venture, the new old venture, and we
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: will definitely talk to you again soon.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: Okay, KERRII thanks you very much, have a good day.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: Now more than ever,