Latest / Newsradio WGAN / Capital Insights

Transcript

Capital Insights · Newsradio WGAN

• 0:00
  Good morning. Good morning.
• 0:01
  Good morning. Very good, very good.
• 0:03
  Thank you for asking. I was.
• 0:04
  In on Saturday hosting inside Main, I walked into the studio
• 0:07
  and I'm like, wow, they're they're stepping it up for Matt.
• 0:10
  I get to sit on your throne on indeed on inside Main and they
• 0:15
  don't wash the carpet, they clean the countertops.
• 0:19
  There's new technology. What is that?
• 0:22
  This little thing here we're going to be doing a lot more
• 0:24
  live streaming on social media. So it's a little little monitor
• 0:27
  so that I can see what's going on when I hit the go button.
• 0:29
  Gosh, you've. Got more buttons than a 727.
• 0:33
  Yes, I do. That's right.
• 0:34
  And I know how to push every one of those buttons to make
• 0:36
  something happen. Absolutely I do.
• 0:38
  So we're going to we're going to up our game here a little bit,
• 0:40
  which is good news for everybody.
• 0:42
  Phil Harriman since last we spoke, right?
• 0:46
  I think she, she dropped out like on Thursday, didn't she?
• 0:48
  Yeah, it was Janet Mills. I actually when I saw you on
• 0:50
  Saturday, you know, you said that you hosted inside Main and
• 0:53
  the phones were very active. I was like, oh, they must have
• 0:55
  been fired up about Janet Mills and you're like, no, it's about
• 0:58
  Iran. I was like, oh, is she that
• 1:00
  irrelevant that quickly? Is it over?
• 1:02
  Just is it over? Is she gone?
• 1:04
  Well, I. Think what you were talking with
• 1:05
  Howie Carr about is worth focusing on.
• 1:10
  She didn't drop out of the race. She suspended her campaign,
• 1:15
  which normally you suspend a campaign when you're deep in
• 1:18
  debt and you got to still raise money to pay everybody off.
• 1:21
  And I don't, I don't think she is in negative cash flow, so to
• 1:26
  speak. So the fact that she has
• 1:29
  suspended her campaign is something worth keeping an eye
• 1:33
  on. But I, I will, I'm going to take
• 1:37
  a little bit of a credit here. I, I predicted when she
• 1:42
  announced that she was going to run.
• 1:44
  Remember, she announced late after Platinum had already
• 1:48
  announced. You could tell that she had been
• 1:50
  persuaded by your man Chuck Schumer to to, to get into the
• 1:56
  race. And I'm sure he assured her that
• 1:59
  the the whole behemoth infrastructure of campaign
• 2:05
  tactics and money from Washington would be flowing her
• 2:10
  way. And I predicted at the time out.
• 2:13
  You know, she's she served in the legislature.
• 2:15
  She's been a District Attorney in two different counties.
• 2:18
  She's been the attorney general won two statewide election.
• 2:22
  She's in her late 70s. Why would you do that?
• 2:26
  Why not just take the farewell tour in in between November and
• 2:33
  January when the next governor gets sworn in and go enjoy the,
• 2:39
  the, the retirement years of your political career?
• 2:41
  But she decided to get in and I predicted then then I'm not sure
• 2:45
  she's got the, the passion and the drive to, to be successful.
• 2:49
  I did not anticipate what is unfolded, that she would
• 2:53
  basically suspend her campaign because she's so far behind in
• 2:57
  fundraising and polling and. And interestingly enough, I
• 3:02
  think it was yesterday I read that Graham Platiners spent and
• 3:07
  raised $11 million. Yeah.
• 3:10
  It's a lot of money. And but he he doesn't like
• 3:12
  money. 100,000 of it has come from Maine, of course.
• 3:16
  Now what does that tell you? It tells me, well, he doesn't
• 3:18
  like money in politics, is what it tells me.
• 3:19
  That's what I've heard from him. Money in politics is a bad
• 3:22
  thing. Rules for thee and not for me.
• 3:25
  I. Always love that.
• 3:26
  I do love that. I mean, now it's, I mean, let's
• 3:29
  actually treat her as she should be treated right now, which is
• 3:32
  as a complete lame duck and just gone because she's not even
• 3:35
  really governor anymore. Like, they're done with that
• 3:36
  legislative session. Yeah, maybe she signs an
• 3:39
  executive order. We'll talk about her again.
• 3:40
  But I mean, she's pretty much out.
• 3:42
  She's she's cooked. So let's talk about Grant
• 3:43
  Plattner. He's now the presumptive
• 3:45
  nominee. All due respect to whoever else
• 3:47
  that other guy is that's in the race.
• 3:49
  Costello, thank you. He's he's going to be the guy.
• 3:52
  So as you flash forward to the Susan Collins versus Platinum
• 3:57
  match up, how worried are you, if at all, Phil Herman about
• 4:01
  that race? I think it depends on the the
• 4:05
  ability of the Collins campaign to maintain the the diplomacy
• 4:12
  and the respect of the office that she has demonstrated
• 4:15
  throughout her career. She, she has never missed A roll
• 4:20
  call vote, which now totals I'm guessing over 10,000, maybe
• 4:23
  11,000 of votes that she has cast, not having missed one of
• 4:29
  them who has a rating amongst conservative organizations as a
• 4:37
  like a 45 or 50% rating. Which means she's always got
• 4:42
  someone upset with her. The left is upset with her, the
• 4:45
  right is upset with her. And she continues to focus on
• 4:49
  what's the best decision that I can make with the information
• 4:53
  that I have that best supports and, and represents the state of
• 4:59
  Maine in total, not my party, but the the state of Maine.
• 5:03
  And I think she's done an admirable job of doing that.
• 5:07
  What is what is missing, I think, is that most people,
• 5:11
  whether you like it or not, the and you know this from your
• 5:14
  experience in Washington met Washington DC doesn't run on
• 5:18
  merit or experience wisdom, right?
• 5:21
  I mean, it's just the the truth that and that is that Washington
• 5:26
  runs on seniority. The only way you get to be in a
• 5:30
  position of a significant sway is longevity.
• 5:38
  And Susan Collins is now arguably the third or fourth
• 5:42
  most influential person in the United States Senate.
• 5:46
  And if she is tossed out of office because we want a
• 5:50
  revolution, which is what I see Plant Platinum is saying, you
• 5:55
  know, we need we need a revolution.
• 5:57
  This doesn't work anymore for the little guy.
• 6:00
  And I'm the I'm the guy who's going to blow the plate.
• 6:03
  I shouldn't say blow it up. Metaphorically.
• 6:05
  Speaking, I'm the guy who's going to get everyone's
• 6:08
  attention and. Overturn the tables.
• 6:10
  There we. Go make make it a make it a
• 6:12
  Jesus analogy, yeah. I'm going to flip over the
• 6:14
  tables and we're going to straighten everybody out.
• 6:18
  Well, first of all, you're going to be the 100th most influential
• 6:23
  person in a Senate of 100 people.
• 6:26
  You're not going to have any influence other than maybe you
• 6:30
  might get the, the media to come hug and kiss you because you're
• 6:34
  so provocative. But are you actually going to be
• 6:38
  able to govern in a way in which you would say, boy, it's good
• 6:44
  thing we we elected this guy Platinum with all his, you know,
• 6:50
  controversial and, and progressive agenda?
• 6:53
  Because I don't think it's going to make a bit of difference in
• 6:57
  Washington. So what would you say if you
• 7:00
  were to handicap the the chances give me numbers here of a
• 7:04
  Collins victory versus a platter victory as things stand today,
• 7:08
  as you look ahead to the general election, what would you say
• 7:11
  those numbers are? Like how how evenly matched is
• 7:14
  it? And who is the, you know, like
• 7:16
  give me the give me the give me the odds.
• 7:18
  Go, go Vegas on me. OK, I'm going to.
• 7:20
  I'm going to say Collins 51, Platinum 49.
• 7:24
  Yeah. That's fair.
• 7:25
  I'd probably be somewhere in that.
• 7:26
  Zone and I think the more people realize that as has been
• 7:30
  reported here this morning, that the, the platinum Campaign is
• 7:33
  importing volunteers from other states that there's tons of
• 7:38
  money coming in from away. We're going to find that the
• 7:41
  so-called independent expenditures are coming from the
• 7:46
  billionaires who which he detests through their, their
• 7:51
  independent organizations. And I, I think the more people
• 7:54
  get to realize where the monies come from, who's actually on the
• 7:58
  ground supporting him, people will say I think I better step
• 8:02
  back and take a better look at my choices.
• 8:06
  Very interesting. Phil Harriman joining us as he
• 8:08
  does on Tuesdays at this time. We always appreciate that.
• 8:11
  We always love that. I talked a little bit about Iran
• 8:13
  earlier today. We have a new a new reality
• 8:16
  going on in the Strait of Hormuz right now.
• 8:17
  Looks like day one of what's it called Operation Freedom.
• 8:21
  Elephant. What do you call it?
• 8:24
  Elephant hunting with a mosquito for mosquitoes.
• 8:26
  Or that too looks like it went about as well as you can expect.
• 8:30
  I mean, they were able to protect the couple ships that
• 8:32
  made it through. I'm curious whether or not that
• 8:35
  actually inspires any of the other ones to try or whether
• 8:37
  they're still worried about getting hit.
• 8:39
  But what do you think about this particular move?
• 8:41
  Does this have the ability of shifting what's going on in
• 8:44
  there to maybe actually dislodge this little status quo that
• 8:47
  we're in, this little, we're stuck in the mud kind of with
• 8:50
  this, with this conflict, we're running this.
• 8:52
  It's just surprising to me, maybe there's more to it than I
• 8:55
  understand, that we've got these little, you know, 2530 foot
• 9:01
  little fast boats that are creating all this, this
• 9:04
  frustration with the potential bombs on these boats.
• 9:09
  I think the, the story that's being overlooked is the one that
• 9:13
  Scott Besich, the Treasury Secretary, is telling.
• 9:16
  And if you follow what he's saying is that the Iranian
• 9:21
  economy is on the verge of collapse.
• 9:23
  The, the, the military's not getting paid because there isn't
• 9:27
  any money flowing into or out of Iran.
• 9:31
  The other Arab states have enlightened the US government to
• 9:36
  Iranian bank accounts and where offshore money is for these
• 9:40
  elite members of the of the regime and they're freezing
• 9:44
  those assets. And there his his contention is
• 9:49
  while we may be talking about economic fury from the military
• 9:53
  point of view, what's really happening and having more
• 9:56
  influence is the economic fury that is being inflicted on the
• 10:00
  Iranian. So if that is accurate, I think
• 10:03
  you're going to find that between opening up the straits
• 10:07
  of her moves as best as we can and the economic reality that
• 10:12
  the military in the government regime can't can't pay its
• 10:15
  bills, Hopefully that is a you. Say hopefully, but do you have
• 10:20
  faith that this actually dislodges the situation?
• 10:22
  A little bit I do. So say like in a month you think
• 10:25
  you were sitting here saying hail the victorious United.
• 10:30
  States, I do and it and if you listen to the people who have
• 10:34
  retired military background who in their military service were
• 10:38
  focused in that region of the country, you're going to hear
• 10:43
  them saying this has been going on for far too long. 1000
• 10:47
  Americans have been killed under this regime.
• 10:49
  They have sponsored Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist
• 10:52
  organizations. This has been a a bully, so to
• 10:58
  speak, on the world stage for almost 50 years and it's time to
• 11:04
  bring peace on Earth. Bring, bring peace on earth if
• 11:07
  that happens. Wow.
• 11:09
  If you're right about any of that, what does that do to the
• 11:10
  midterms? Does it affect them at all or
• 11:12
  does it help help the Republicans?
• 11:16
  I mean, 'cause you're looking, you're staring down the barrel
• 11:18
  at what appears right now to be not a great year.
• 11:21
  Maybe typically, as you know from your analytical experience,
• 11:26
  the incumbent president aside from Joe Biden, I don't know how
• 11:30
  he pulled that off, but typically, historically, no, he
• 11:34
  still. Lost.
• 11:34
  He still lost. He just didn't take as many.
• 11:36
  Yeah, it. Was supposed to be in a red wave
• 11:38
  and it was a. Red trickle.
• 11:40
  Yeah, a trickle. A red trickle.
• 11:42
  So if they lose seats, the, the media and the Democrats will
• 11:46
  say, see the, you know, the American people are against
• 11:50
  this, this, this administration, it's happened historically.
• 11:54
  It it's to be expected if there is a very little change, if they
• 12:00
  happen to hang on to the House and grow a few seats in the
• 12:04
  Senate, which is practical possible, that hopefully would
• 12:10
  send a message that the American people are still supporting the
• 12:14
  direction the administration is is taking us and, and.
• 12:18
  It I mean there is a big difference between like losing 5
• 12:21
  seats in Congress or 10 seats and losing 50.
• 12:23
  Right, exactly. And that's my point.
• 12:25
  And, and there is such a disdain for Trump in many, you know,
• 12:31
  sectors of our, our population that it doesn't matter whether
• 12:35
  gas is $2.00 a gallon and there's peace on earth.
• 12:39
  And, and, you know, people are finding life enjoyable and
• 12:46
  affordable. And again, they're still not
• 12:48
  going to vote for him. So it's going to be the people
• 12:50
  who are care about what's going on in our country, who don't
• 12:55
  follow what's going on in politics day-to-day is you and I
• 12:58
  do who wake up and go, you know, I think things are heading in a
• 13:03
  direction that I'm, I'm feeling pretty good about my my family,
• 13:06
  my employment, my business. I'm going to go support the the
• 13:11
  the Republican. If you look in Maine
• 13:13
  specifically, I know the calculus is different a little
• 13:16
  bit in every state, but now, you know, we already talked about
• 13:19
  Plattner and Collins and whatnot, but you've got these
• 13:21
  gubernatorial contests happening on the Republican side of that
• 13:26
  aisle. There was a story that Steve
• 13:29
  Robinson dropped yesterday that, you know, had a internal memo
• 13:32
  from Bobby Charles saying he's up like 3000 points, which
• 13:35
  probably isn't not true. But it does at least sort of
• 13:38
  like give you another data point in the looks like he's at least
• 13:41
  sort of kind of leading, you know, by how much, I don't know.
• 13:45
  Neither do you. Nobody does.
• 13:46
  But maybe he's the guy who's in the front.
• 13:49
  How do you evaluate the current status of that primary right
• 13:53
  now? I know there's a little bit more
• 13:54
  than a month to go, so there's still some time.
• 13:56
  So some people can move around a little bit.
• 13:57
  But Jonathan Bush just had Jim Libby endorsed him yesterday.
• 14:01
  And you know, he's running a lot of ads, has a lot of money.
• 14:03
  You've got the other candidates obviously trying to make their
• 14:06
  move. How do you how do you view it
• 14:07
  today? Let me step back and say that I
• 14:13
  do some political analysis for WMTW Channel 8 and they hosted
• 14:18
  last week the Democrat gubernatorial debate and they're
• 14:22
  hosting tonight at 7:00. The Republicans.
• 14:26
  And what I saw in my, in watching this in the studio is
• 14:31
  that the Democrat candidates, all, you know, congenial, get
• 14:36
  along with each other, nice people.
• 14:38
  I know, know them all personally and have not a bad word to say
• 14:42
  about them personally. All of them, whether it was
• 14:46
  education, healthcare, energy costs, housing, you name the
• 14:51
  topic. Yeah, they're all in on
• 14:56
  government. Just needs more money.
• 14:58
  Yeah. And All in all.
• 15:00
  Is the idea. That and we got to go after the
• 15:02
  people who do well because they're not paying their fair
• 15:05
  share. Not to which I say, how much of
• 15:07
  my hard earned money is your fair share?
• 15:10
  But contrast that with the Republicans, who as I said
• 15:14
  tonight at 7:00 on Channel 8 will be having a debate.
• 15:19
  They're on the other side of the spectrum.
• 15:20
  Government's got way too much money.
• 15:22
  The results that we're we're hoping for are not materializing
• 15:26
  on all of the same things that I just just mentioned.
• 15:29
  And and in particular, I want to just touch on the electricity.
• 15:33
  Cost by all means. Geez, you know, you listen to
• 15:35
  the Democrats, Hannah Pingree in particular.
• 15:38
  I'm going to take on the utility companies.
• 15:40
  Well, excuse me, the utility companies are governed by the
• 15:47
  Public Utilities Commission, which are appointed by the
• 15:50
  governor, which have been over the last eight years, Democrat
• 15:54
  minded leaning people who've been appointed and they're the
• 15:58
  ones who tell the utility companies how to run their
• 16:00
  company. So the notion that let me send
• 16:04
  us more money and I'm going to go fix electrical rates.
• 16:07
  Well, you could have been doing this for the last eight years
• 16:10
  and you and you haven't. So of the Republican candidates,
• 16:16
  here's what I see. It's sort of like Saturday's
• 16:18
  Kentucky Derby, right? They're on the backstretch and
• 16:22
  you can see some moving forward and dropping back.
• 16:25
  And I think the Republicans are coming out of Turn 4.
• 16:29
  They're about to hit the straightaway.
• 16:31
  And what I see at this point is Midgley Bush and Barbie Charles
• 16:36
  are the three horses probably a length or two ahead of the rest.
• 16:41
  Who's going to cross the finish line?
• 16:43
  I think it's going to come down to how much money do you have,
• 16:45
  how much organization do you have?
• 16:47
  And do you have a message in the waning days of the campaign,
• 16:50
  when most Mainers who care enough to go vote but don't pay
• 16:55
  attention to this stuff day-to-day are going to tune in
• 16:58
  and take a look at the at the various candidates?
• 17:03
  Well, did you watch the Did you watch the old Derby, Mr.
• 17:07
  Harriman? I did.
• 17:07
  What? A Golden tempo won that.
• 17:10
  And as they came into that final turn, Golden tempo was in last
• 17:14
  place. Yes.
• 17:15
  And passed slowly, everybody in front of them until they really
• 17:19
  got to the the tail end there. And then they charged ahead.
• 17:21
  I loved it. You like that analogy, don't
• 17:23
  you? Is there is there a golden tempo
• 17:25
  in this race right now? You just named the three that
• 17:27
  everybody's assuming are gonna challenge.
• 17:30
  But I mean, Owen McCarthy could be one of those who seems to be
• 17:33
  in the distance. Here's a guy who has cut look at
• 17:37
  his pedigree. He grew up in Patton, Maine,
• 17:40
  grew up in a logging family and his mother was worked in the
• 17:43
  school lunch program. He lives now in southern Maine.
• 17:47
  He has an MBA from from Harvard. He has an engineering degree.
• 17:51
  He's got a really interesting story of someone who came from
• 17:55
  the hardscrabble rural part of Maine to a very successful
• 18:00
  inventor, entrepreneur, and he's got what I think, he said, 80
• 18:05
  pages of deep kale. I've read it.
• 18:08
  Points of how he would govern if he can muster the the money and
• 18:13
  the the focus. He could be, could be your
• 18:16
  golden thing. Golden, you know, golden
• 18:20
  Pharaoh. I just combined two horses
• 18:21
  there, my Lord. But yes, he could be the one
• 18:24
  that comes from behind and and ultimately wins.
• 18:25
  We'll see though. I mean, that's The thing is, is
• 18:27
  I mean that that was Paul Le Page in 2010, wasn't it?
• 18:30
  Because I looked at all the public polling that.
• 18:32
  Year he. Was in 4th or 5th place the
• 18:34
  whole time and he ended up smoking everybody in one.
• 18:37
  Of his election. Why did that happen?
• 18:40
  Well, in 30 seconds, I think it was because he spoke to the
• 18:43
  actual voters that were voting in that primary and the other
• 18:46
  people did not, and it didn't show up in polling.
• 18:49
  I couldn't agree more. And and combine that with him
• 18:52
  telling his story of literally growing up on the streets of
• 18:55
  Lewiston to becoming a successful business person,
• 18:58
  mayor of of Waterville, etcetera.
• 19:01
  People were like, wow, gonna vote for this guy.
• 19:06
  All right, that's all the time. We've got Phil Harriman.
• 19:07
  He's. To go play fast.
• 19:08
  Good morning, everyone. Good morning indeed, and I'll
• 19:10
  talk to you again next week.